On topic I hesitate to point out again, because it gives me no joy whatsoever, that Trump is currently ahead in the polling nationally and, even more importantly, is ahead in the polling in every battleground state, every single one.
This was not the position in 2016 when he was well behind on the polling and got fewer votes over the country as a whole and still won. He is well ahead of where he was then, well ahead.
If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.
There's 1.1pts in it nationally according to RCP you linked. The Economist tracker is similar.
That's a race that is neck and neck when we're still 6 months out from election day. Trump may be favourite but the polling lead isn't insurmountable in the way it is for the Tories here (where most people assume a small swingback but in this case it still leaves them 10+ points behind).
But neck and neck is a win for Trump. He proved that in 2016. The Electoral College favours him or indeed any Republican. The winning post in 2016, for a fairly comfortable EC win, was 46.1%. Where he is, right now. Clinton got 48.2% and lost.
He has now been found guilty of contempt of court 10x. Its not moving the polls. If anything they have swung very slightly back in his direction in the last week.
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
If Biden wins but Kennedy Jr gets a reasonable vote I could see him making his NI envoy Joe Kennedy III Secretary of State. He is only in his 40s and then would be a frontrunner for 2028. Haley is only in her 50s and would likely run again too if Trump loses.
Swinney is 60 and that is a pretty average age for a First Minister, PM or President most of whom are in their fifties or sixties as is Starmer. Rishi is just a young PM, Biden an old President
Trump is also determined to get himself locked up, judging by his latest outburst.
I imagine he assumes that being locked up will play to his base and enhance his standing as a martyr.
Has he considered, however, that if he's locked up in New York, even if he's found not guilty and released he could still have his bail revoked in Washington or Georgia and end up in prison until he comes to trial - trials he's made every effort to delay?
Can't imagine that will help with independents or even moderate republicans.
I can't remember where I heard this - probably Adam Klasfeld - but apparently being locked up for contempt of court in the NY case wouldn't be considered a criminal conviction in the sense that you'd expect to affect his bail elsewhere.
On topic I hesitate to point out again, because it gives me no joy whatsoever, that Trump is currently ahead in the polling nationally and, even more importantly, is ahead in the polling in every battleground state, every single one.
This was not the position in 2016 when he was well behind on the polling and got fewer votes over the country as a whole and still won. He is well ahead of where he was then, well ahead.
If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.
There's 1.1pts in it nationally according to RCP you linked. The Economist tracker is similar.
That's a race that is neck and neck when we're still 6 months out from election day. Trump may be favourite but the polling lead isn't insurmountable in the way it is for the Tories here (where most people assume a small swingback but in this case it still leaves them 10+ points behind).
But neck and neck is a win for Trump. He proved that in 2016. The Electoral College favours him or indeed any Republican. The winning post in 2016, for a fairly comfortable EC win, was 46.1%. Where he is, right now. Clinton got 48.2% and lost.
He has now been found guilty of contempt of court 10x. Its not moving the polls. If anything they have swung very slightly back in his direction in the last week.
Biden is on 49% and 52% on the new polls in the header, that is more than enough for him to win again even if Trump still gets his 47% especially as Biden outperformed Hillary in the swing rustbelt states.
Only once the actual verdict is in in the Trump criminal trial might it make any difference in the polls at all and then only if some guilty verdicts and then likely only shifting some more Independents to Biden. Trump's base would probably now stick with him even if he was convicted of and jailed for murder sad to say as he himself has alluded to however the Independents who usually decide US elections wouldn't
Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.
I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.
...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
Would this not be better?
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably many more years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, even whilst life expectancy has increased a long way, and it has been a shit-show.
On topic I hesitate to point out again, because it gives me no joy whatsoever, that Trump is currently ahead in the polling nationally and, even more importantly, is ahead in the polling in every battleground state, every single one.
This was not the position in 2016 when he was well behind on the polling and got fewer votes over the country as a whole and still won. He is well ahead of where he was then, well ahead.
If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.
I don't think the Betfair prices are due to Hopium because Trump's lead is less on Polymarket, which is dominated by rich crypto people who are really mad at Biden because the SEC keeps suing crypto companies. Polymarket actually has the Dems favoured over the GOP (48%-47%) albeit only if you add in the Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama numbers, which are skewed because people don't want to lock their money up to lay the no-hopers when they can get better returns with their stake elsewhere.
If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.
PB.com has analytical lacunae when it comes to DJT. I must have seen solemn predictions of his imminent bankruptcy and/or imprisonment hundreds of times on here since 2020 and it never happens.
I don't know why everyone is so arsed about it. He probably dislikes the UK slightly less than JRB and will definitely be less warry so unless you live in the US, Trump 47 is probably mostly irrelevant.
Also, it'll be fucking solid gold lolz if he wins. You should all be grateful; not many people see the implosion of an overpowering imperial hegemony in their lifetimes.
Trump is also determined to get himself locked up, judging by his latest outburst.
I imagine he assumes that being locked up will play to his base and enhance his standing as a martyr.
Has he considered, however, that if he's locked up in New York, even if he's found not guilty and released he could still have his bail revoked in Washington or Georgia and end up in prison until he comes to trial - trials he's made every effort to delay?
Can't imagine that will help with independents or even moderate republicans.
I can't remember where I heard this - probably Adam Klasfeld - but apparently being locked up for contempt of court in the NY case wouldn't be considered a criminal conviction in the sense that you'd expect to affect his bail elsewhere.
And that’s the problem here it’s an inconvenience for Trump attached to a big photo opportunity targeting his audience
Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.
As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?
TRUSS
for Manchester United
I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
The judge has given him every inch of rope. Because he, the judge, knows that sending Trump to prison will set off legal stuff up to the Supreme Court. And he wants what he does to stick…
OT: I’d like to see polling from the swing states. While in theory, a fair lead gets you the electoral college automatically, the polarisation of the electorate and “sectionalism” as they used to call it…
Here’s last week’s swing state polling. Look away now if you don’t want to know the result.
As someone who apparently wants Ukraine to win and be freed from Russian tyranny, I'd expect you to be dead-set against a Trump win. Because Trump will not be helping Ukraine.
Morning all. More In Common's latest weekly poll is out and is back to trend at 43 26 to Lab, the rest as you were, conducted 2 to 3 May. Source - Luke Tryl's tweets as usual for MiC As for the US, you can currently find polling to support anything from a Biden hold to a Red tsunami, i personallg think the downside risks are more for Biden running in but we will see. Its a mile off yet, time for a flock of Black Swans
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
Would this not be better?
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably 20 years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, and it has been a shit-show.
What’s the best age for a national leader? Of course it depends, but I’d have thought somewhere in the 45-65 bracket. Old enough to have personal experience of a lot of the travails of life (education, employment, housebuying and mortgages, childcare, parents ageing and needing support), young enough that the world they grew up in was vaguely recognisable to the modern day.
Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.
As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?
TRUSS
for Manchester United
I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
The judge has given him every inch of rope. Because he, the judge, knows that sending Trump to prison will set off legal stuff up to the Supreme Court. And he wants what he does to stick…
OT: I’d like to see polling from the swing states. While in theory, a fair lead gets you the electoral college automatically, the polarisation of the electorate and “sectionalism” as they used to call it…
I have a spreadsheet showing latest polls by state and the overall outcome. I can also adjust for the bias in RV, i.e. for differential turnout.
With no adjustment, the current outcome is 227/331 to Trump. With an adjustment of 3% (between RV and LV as described in the header) the outcome is 273/265 to Biden.
Polls seem to be moving towards Biden but they are quite volatile and it matters whether Kennedy is included in the question.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.
As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?
TRUSS
for Manchester United
I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.
TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.
I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.
Experienced every emotion but never wavered
Do you remember The Doc? Back from the old Div2 and a cup win?
I remember Gordon McQueen, Bryan Robson, Steve Bruce, players who would play through a brick wall for you in hard times. In the current squad I would give McTominey and Fernandes a pass on that. The rest can go so far as I am concerned.
McTominey is a grafter. Trying to sell him was crazy. The other one I would hang on to - and this is a big shift for me - is Maguire. In getting dropped and having to fight for his place in the team he has totally earned it. Spent too long playing well for England and terribly for United so I wanted him gone. Now? Build the defence around him.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims,
Lord David Frost.
Wasn't a Lord at the relevant time tbf. And remember him going on and on about how wonderful the EU was for the average British person and (separately) the average jaikie under the Glaswegian railway arches, according to his employer at the time.
Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.
I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.
...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...
The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.
The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
Hmmm. Very easy to say they've died in 'Israeli attacks,' and possibly true, but it seems overwhelmingly likely many more will have been killed by Hamas. Killing Israelis is what Hamas does. What it enjoys.
The point I think you are missing is that releasing hostages is what will get them a deal, not the other way around.
Hamas are evil but not totally stupid . Their leverage is the hostages alive . The hostages that have died are likely to be because of IDF bombings.
IDF logic: they’ve been killing loads and loads of Hamas dudes, and by definition the hostages would be adjacent to Hamas dudes. However the strikes by the most moral army in the world are so surgical that they would take out the Hamas dudes leaving the hostages alive, only for them to be killed later by the remaining Hamas dudes. Makes perfect sense.
Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.
As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?
TRUSS
for Manchester United
I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
The judge has given him every inch of rope. Because he, the judge, knows that sending Trump to prison will set off legal stuff up to the Supreme Court. And he wants what he does to stick…
OT: I’d like to see polling from the swing states. While in theory, a fair lead gets you the electoral college automatically, the polarisation of the electorate and “sectionalism” as they used to call it…
I have a spreadsheet showing latest polls by state and the overall outcome. I can also adjust for the bias in RV, i.e. for differential turnout.
With no adjustment, the current outcome is 227/331 to Trump. With an adjustment of 3% (between RV and LV as described in the header) the outcome is 273/265 to Biden.
Polls seem to be moving towards Biden but they are quite volatile and it matters whether Kennedy is included in the question.
Still early days, but my money is on Biden.
Didn't Trump win 18 of 19 bell weather counties in 2020 ?
The Trump paradox this election cycle seems to be that he wants airtime (as always) but may perform better the less airtime he has. Lots of voters have said they wouldn't vote for him if he gets convicted; whether that proves to be true or not, we may see, but I don't get the sense that his trials are being followed as extensively as protesters or Israel or even the economy. And that's good for Trump, because everything that comes out of the trials looks awful for him. But, Trump being Trump, he wants the spotlight (to the point he is basically begging the judge to put him in jail for contempt of court). If he gets his wish I think his popularity will drop.
Now, the last GE when both candidates were this disliked (Clinton vs Trump) - Trump won. I still say that's in part because lots of people saw Trump as the moderate in 2016, which is not the case any more. But also people have soured on Biden since the Afghanistan withdrawal and the increase in inflation. I still think Trump is favourite (as much as I wish otherwise) because I see 2020 as anomalous - I think if it wasn't for Covid he would have been reelected.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
But also people have soured on Biden since the Afghanistan withdrawal and the increase in inflation.
Does the Fall of Kabul shift votes from JRB to DJT? It was Trump's plan to start with and whatever happened is still infinitely preferable to being there.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
No even in the US only senior civil servants are changed with a new administration, middle and lower ranks largely stay the same.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
One of Peter Hitchens' main contentions is that the Blair government politicised the civil service in a way it hadn't been before.
But also people have soured on Biden since the Afghanistan withdrawal and the increase in inflation.
Does the Fall of Kabul shift votes from JRB to DJT? It was Trump's plan to start with and whatever happened is still infinitely preferable to being there.
I think so. It's not the policy, it's that it made him look feckless.
But also people have soured on Biden since the Afghanistan withdrawal and the increase in inflation.
Does the Fall of Kabul shift votes from JRB to DJT? It was Trump's plan to start with and whatever happened is still infinitely preferable to being there.
That's the point in calendar where the votes shift. I think that may have just been the end of the media honey moon, rather than it specifically being the thing that people remember / cared about enough to dislike Biden.
On topic I hesitate to point out again, because it gives me no joy whatsoever, that Trump is currently ahead in the polling nationally and, even more importantly, is ahead in the polling in every battleground state, every single one.
This was not the position in 2016 when he was well behind on the polling and got fewer votes over the country as a whole and still won. He is well ahead of where he was then, well ahead.
If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.
There's 1.1pts in it nationally according to RCP you linked. The Economist tracker is similar.
That's a race that is neck and neck when we're still 6 months out from election day. Trump may be favourite but the polling lead isn't insurmountable in the way it is for the Tories here (where most people assume a small swingback but in this case it still leaves them 10+ points behind).
But neck and neck is a win for Trump. He proved that in 2016. The Electoral College favours him or indeed any Republican. The winning post in 2016, for a fairly comfortable EC win, was 46.1%. Where he is, right now. Clinton got 48.2% and lost.
He has now been found guilty of contempt of court 10x. Its not moving the polls. If anything they have swung very slightly back in his direction in the last week.
Biden is on 49% and 52% on the new polls in the header, that is more than enough for him to win again even if Trump still gets his 47% especially as Biden outperformed Hillary in the swing rustbelt states.
Only once the actual verdict is in in the Trump criminal trial might it make any difference in the polls at all and then only if some guilty verdicts and then likely only shifting some more Independents to Biden. Trump's base would probably now stick with him even if he was convicted of and jailed for murder sad to say as he himself has alluded to however the Independents who usually decide US elections wouldn't
PB haikus
Tree falls in Epping, yet only squirrels see it. Is it a DK?
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
Would this not be better?
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably many more years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, even whilst life expectancy has increased a long way, and it has been a shit-show.
(Blue bar is time as PM)
Gordon Brown and Boris Johnson were PM in their fifties. Theresa May PM in her sixties and Starmer would also be a PM over 60
The Trump paradox this election cycle seems to be that he wants airtime (as always) but may perform better the less airtime he has. Lots of voters have said they wouldn't vote for him if he gets convicted; whether that proves to be true or not, we may see, but I don't get the sense that his trials are being followed as extensively as protesters or Israel or even the economy. And that's good for Trump, because everything that comes out of the trials looks awful for him. But, Trump being Trump, he wants the spotlight (to the point he is basically begging the judge to put him in jail for contempt of court). If he gets his wish I think his popularity will drop.
Now, the last GE when both candidates were this disliked (Clinton vs Trump) - Trump won. I still say that's in part because lots of people saw Trump as the moderate in 2016, which is not the case any more. But also people have soured on Biden since the Afghanistan withdrawal and the increase in inflation. I still think Trump is favourite (as much as I wish otherwise) because I see 2020 as anomalous - I think if it wasn't for Covid he would have been reelected.
Trump's already convicted 10 times, for Criminal Contempt of Court.
For a start. More to come, I think.
I've watch a few Fox segments over the last few days, and I don't know what those guys are on but @Leon probably wants some.
Mr Burnham adopting long-standing SNP policies. Not that he gives any credit, not at all, for where he got the idea.
Not that it matters - not many voters overlap ... and it's good news.
The Bain principle requires a 5 year cordon sanitaire around any SNP policies before Labour can adopt them, this has been more than fulfilled with banning RTB. National Labour too gutless to go for it I imagine.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
One of Peter Hitchens' main contentions is that the Blair government politicised the civil service in a way it hadn't been before.
Yes but New Labour brought in their SpAds because they were convinced the civil service was stuffed full of Tory partisans. Then the Conservatives brought in their SpAds because they were convinced the civil service was stuffed full of Labour partisans. Then Boris brought in Dominic Cummings who was convinced the civil service was the Blob acting to frustrate the government. Then Liz Truss thought the civil service was the Deep State acting against the government.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
I don't know about Dogcatchers, but Councils in the UK seem to be simply abolishing Pest Control Officers.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
No even in the US only senior civil servants are changed with a new administration, middle and lower ranks largely stay the same.
Dogcatchers are elected though
(narrator: @SeaShantyIrish2 told @viewcode off when the subject of elected dogcatchers came up. Apparently they aren't elected any more)
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
Would this not be better?
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably many more years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, even whilst life expectancy has increased a long way, and it has been a shit-show.
(Blue bar is time as PM)
Gordon Brown and Boris Johnson were PM in their fifties. Theresa May PM in her sixties and Starmer would also be a PM over 60
I think a graph of age of PM vs date of death of PM may be instructive.
Trump wants to go to jail. He thinks that politically it is how he wins. Absurdly he has failed so far, but with jail the only legal sanction remaining its no strikes and you're out time.
How does jail work when the convict has a secret service detail? You could argue that as the convict would be in the protection of the authorities then they are not needed. How do you apply legal sanction fairly and equally - as demanded by the constitution - when you can't apply it equally because of who the convict is?
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
Would this not be better?
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably many more years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, even whilst life expectancy has increased a long way, and it has been a shit-show.
(Blue bar is time as PM)
I'm genuinely surprised that Wison was so much younger than Callaghan. He always looked pretty old to me, yet he was 60 when he handed over to the 64 year old Callaghan.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
I don't know about Dogcatchers, but Councils in the UK seem to be simply abolishing Pest Control Officers.
Another part of the hollowing out process.
Central government have demanded that anything that isn't a necessary service be outsourced - the most services you would expect from the state, at a lower level or at a national level, are being outsourced to private companies so they can skim profit off the top. We have a public service model based on middle men at every level.
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
Would this not be better?
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably many more years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, even whilst life expectancy has increased a long way, and it has been a shit-show.
(Blue bar is time as PM)
I'm genuinely surprised that Wison was so much younger than Callaghan. He always looked pretty old to me, yet he was 60 when he handed over to the 64 year old Callaghan.
Well corrected. Paging Dr Freud. (ETA the original omitted the word "old" from the description of Wilson.)
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
One of Peter Hitchens' main contentions is that the Blair government politicised the civil service in a way it hadn't been before.
Yes but New Labour brought in their SpAds because they were convinced the civil service was stuffed full of Tory partisans. Then the Conservatives brought in their SpAds because they were convinced the civil service was stuffed full of Labour partisans. Then Boris brought in Dominic Cummings who was convinced the civil service was the Blob acting to frustrate the government. Then Liz Truss thought the civil service was the Deep State acting against the government.
I know that Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister are fiction, but I think that there is a grain of truth in what they depict with the Civil Service believing that it knows best and that ministers need to be 'handled'. I once had some interactions with a civil servant in the context of chemical safety. At the time the minister concerned was looking to see if some of the regulations/restrictions whatever could be reduced. The civil servant bluntly said that he would do all he could to frustrate the ministers aims.
Now in this case I think the civil servant had a good point, but I can also see why ministers get frustrated when they believe that the civil service is running counter to their wishes (often it is!).
I rather like our system. It reminds me a bit of student union officials and their campaigns, which then meet the reality of what can be achieved in office. The civil service. at its best, should be the reservoir of knowledge, experience etc to run the country.
Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.
As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?
TRUSS
for Manchester United
I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.
TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.
I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.
Experienced every emotion but never wavered
Cup Final? Play the kids. Most of the first team do not deserve to play. "You'll never win anything with kids" is how Alan Hansen dismissed the Class of 93. Wrong. Liverpool did the same in their cup final recently.
The thing is, this team? I actively WANT us to lose.
Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.
Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
Up to a point. In this country, civil servants are not presumed to support personally any government's political aims, just as lawyers are not presumed to sympathise with their axe-murdering clients. Hope Hicks was a press secretary; she had no policy role; she was not a Cabinet member. Who is next? Trump's chauffeur? His Secret Service bodyguards? At least the Secret Service's job is also to protect Congress.
Er, does the comparison work even that far? In the UK civil servants mostly don't get thrown out and replaced with usually overt Tories/Labourists when one lot take over. In the US, even the dogcatcher gets changed, or at least the director of dogcatching, AIUI.
I don't know about Dogcatchers, but Councils in the UK seem to be simply abolishing Pest Control Officers.
Another part of the hollowing out process.
To be contracted out to e.g. rentokill, and thus ultimately cost more?
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.
As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?
TRUSS
for Manchester United
I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
The judge has given him every inch of rope. Because he, the judge, knows that sending Trump to prison will set off legal stuff up to the Supreme Court. And he wants what he does to stick…
OT: I’d like to see polling from the swing states. While in theory, a fair lead gets you the electoral college automatically, the polarisation of the electorate and “sectionalism” as they used to call it…
I have a spreadsheet showing latest polls by state and the overall outcome. I can also adjust for the bias in RV, i.e. for differential turnout.
With no adjustment, the current outcome is 227/331 to Trump. With an adjustment of 3% (between RV and LV as described in the header) the outcome is 273/265 to Biden.
Polls seem to be moving towards Biden but they are quite volatile and it matters whether Kennedy is included in the question.
Still early days, but my money is on Biden.
Didn't Trump win 18 of 19 bell weather counties in 2020 ?
Possibly. I don't know. Six months is a long time in politics. Four years is even longer.
Trump wants to go to jail. He thinks that politically it is how he wins. Absurdly he has failed so far, but with jail the only legal sanction remaining its no strikes and you're out time.
How does jail work when the convict has a secret service detail? You could argue that as the convict would be in the protection of the authorities then they are not needed. How do you apply legal sanction fairly and equally - as demanded by the constitution - when you can't apply it equally because of who the convict is?
There are special "Very Important Prisoner" units. Chump would be in effective solitary with accommodation provided for his Secret Service detail.
I think there are plenty of precedents. Steve Bannon for one is due to go to prison I think for contempt of congress wrt not answering a subpoena, but was left out whilst he appeals by a Trump appointed judge iirc.
Usonia has a lorra-lorra prisons. Prisonville, USA, is about as populous as Hamburg or Warsaw - 1.8 million people.
Zero commentary on the Kendrick vs Drake rap beef is a telling indictment on how disconnected this community is.
Look, I’ve only just got over the Gracie Fields - Vera Lynn catfight, there’s only so much bandwidth..
Amongst the weird currents and eddies of Facebook there was a recent flurry of terribly written articles about pop/rock stars bitching about other ones, ‘why Keith Richards hates this song’, ‘ Kylie will never be in the same room as X’ etc. Seems to have died down for the moment.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
The venn diagram of where there’s a large Muslim population and Lib Dem target seats isn’t massively overlapping to say the least, so with the exception possibly of a couple of Green targets that essentially a threat to let the Tories back in.
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
Would this not be better?
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably many more years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, even whilst life expectancy has increased a long way, and it has been a shit-show.
(Blue bar is time as PM)
I'm genuinely surprised that Wison was so much younger than Callaghan. He always looked pretty old to me, yet he was 60 when he handed over to the 64 year old Callaghan.
Well corrected. Paging Dr Freud. (ETA the original omitted the word "old" from the description of Wilson.)
Wilson quipped that it was time to make way for an older man.
I was going to say that I didn't suppose they were consciously adopting the guid auld Scots concept of flyting. But to my surprise there's been quite a bit of writing connecting it with rap etc., albeit the academic side. So maybe it's all more connected after all, the world outside PB.
Mr Burnham adopting long-standing SNP policies. Not that he gives any credit, not at all, for where he got the idea.
Not that it matters - not many voters overlap ... and it's good news.
"If we don't talk about it, it will go away.....
Labour figures should refuse to be drawn into the minutiae of identity politics and instead call out this rightwing playbook.
That line has run out of road, as "Honest John" (sic) found out yesterday.
Yoons: SNP should shut up about indy and deal with things that matter like housing! Yoons: How dare SNP produce innovatory policies on housing which are adopted by rUK!
Zero commentary on the Kendrick vs Drake rap beef is a telling indictment on how disconnected this community is.
It’s probably because everyone on PB for once has the same opinion, that Drake is a Fanny and Kendrick Lamarr isn’t and so there’s no point having an argument about it here.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
The venn diagram of where there’s a large Muslim population and Lib Dem target seats isn’t massively overlapping to say the least, so with the exception possibly of a couple of Green targets that essentially a threat to let the Tories back in.
Some interesting people have pivoted to the Lin Dems.
For example one of Lutfur Rahman's prominent sidekicks.
Zero commentary on the Kendrick vs Drake rap beef is a telling indictment on how disconnected this community is.
Easy, Kendrick seems to have some talent but is not to my taste.
Drake happened on the bossa nova setting on his nephew's Fisher Price keyboard some time around 2014, and changed rap into dirgy Mr Lover Lover pigswill as a result.
Beef started with a really innocuous bit of Kendrick braggadocio a few years back and has escalated to an absurd degree.
Zero commentary on the Kendrick vs Drake rap beef is a telling indictment on how disconnected this community is.
Easy, Kendrick seems to have some talent but is not to my taste.
Drake happened on the bossa nova setting on his nephew's Fisher Price keyboard some time around 2014, and changed rap into dirgy Mr Lover Lover pigswill as a result.
Beef started with a really innocuous bit of Kendrick braggadocio a few years back and has escalated to an absurd degree.
Nothing we don't see on PB every day tbh.
Yes to the last (and I bow to your expertise on the rest), but - with one obvious exception - none of us have got it monetised, have we?
Does suggest something of an economic malaise in much of Europe.
Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:
"In April, the Eurozone's construction sector appears to be even further from recovery compared to the previous month. Civil engineering activity is in a bad state, commercial activity is worse and housing activity looks bleak. While the performance of housing and civil engineering is similarly as bad than in previous months, the crisis in commercial building activity, including offices, has deepened. With the marginal softening of the fall in new orders, any expectation of a near-term recovery seems unfounded.
The development in the Eurozone's construction sector, which has been rather varied in recent months, is now converging among Germany, France and Italy. However, this convergence is not cause for celebration, as Italy has simply joined the club of countries with a shrinking construction sector. Until recently, Italy had shown surprising resilience linked to the so-called superbonus program and recovery and resilience plan. Both seem to have lost force over the last months, in part because they are running out.
The most forward-looking indicator of new orders in April is almost as dire as it has been over the past five months. New orders are plummeting rapidly, with Germany leading the downward trend, followed by France and Italy. This trend does not augur well for the near future, indicating that the construction sector's recession will persist in Germany and France, while beginning to take hold in Italy."
The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
Would this not be better?
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably many more years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, even whilst life expectancy has increased a long way, and it has been a shit-show.
(Blue bar is time as PM)
I'm genuinely surprised that Wison was so much younger than Callaghan. He always looked pretty old to me, yet he was 60 when he handed over to the 64 year old Callaghan.
The job ages you, so eyebags combined with a receding hairline and a squatter rounder build made Wilson seem older. Callaghan had a squarer aspect and a good hairline: if he had eyebags the glasses hid them. Also Wilson had begun to lose weight (health issues?) and that does not look good on the over-50s.
Zero commentary on the Kendrick vs Drake rap beef is a telling indictment on how disconnected this community is.
It’s probably because everyone on PB for once has the same opinion, that Drake is a Fanny and Kendrick Lamarr isn’t and so there’s no point having an argument about it here.
KL is deep into BLM so I think there would be a few on here who, if they had access to any cultural frame of reference after The Doodletown Pipers, would be on Team Drizzy.
Macklemore just dropped a Palestine track that was straight fire and took a jab at Drake.
New political “wall” alert: You've heard of the Red Wall, you might have heard of the Blue Wall. Today I'm unveiling the a new third-wall - the Ivy Wall.
These 31 English constituencies are each home to an Ivy Restaurant and will decide the fate of both the Liberal Democrats and Greens at the next GE (1/6)
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
Zero commentary on the Kendrick vs Drake rap beef is a telling indictment on how disconnected this community is.
It’s probably because everyone on PB for once has the same opinion, that Drake is a Fanny and Kendrick Lamarr isn’t and so there’s no point having an argument about it here.
KL is deep into BLM so I think there would be a few on here who, if they had access to any cultural frame of reference after The Doodletown Pipers, would be on Team Drizzy.
Macklemore just dropped a Palestine track that was straight fire and took a jab at Drake.
I can't answer the increasingly frequent video games questions on University Challenge, let alone rap kerfuffles.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
This is a good thing, no? The kinds of people here who talk about Muslim integration and what if a Muslim party turned up - this is a very British way of doing things. You have your petition, in this case the demands, and you go to the party that wants your backing and say "this is the tit for tat for our support". A realistic and, dare I say, moderate approach to the whole thing.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
And yes, one or two very questionable organisations are involved.
They are all worthy apart from #15 which feels like a line from a missing Monty Python script and doesn't really provide a solid basis for enabling legislation.
New political “wall” alert: You've heard of the Red Wall, you might have heard of the Blue Wall. Today I'm unveiling the a new third-wall - the Ivy Wall.
These 31 English constituencies are each home to an Ivy Restaurant and will decide the fate of both the Liberal Democrats and Greens at the next GE (1/6)
Quite a useful concept. Also shows how the Ivy is doing what restaurants always do, overextend
Is there a Waitrose Wall? And a Booths Wall? I like the idea in general. Warminster definitely feels more upmarket for the presence of Waitrose (although we will shortly be dragged down by a McDonalds about 100 yards away...)
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
The venn diagram of where there’s a large Muslim population and Lib Dem target seats isn’t massively overlapping to say the least, so with the exception possibly of a couple of Green targets that essentially a threat to let the Tories back in.
Some interesting people have pivoted to the Lin Dems.
For example one of Lutfur Rahman's prominent sidekicks.
Ex-sidekicks. She'd fallen out with Rahman years before she defected.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
The venn diagram of where there’s a large Muslim population and Lib Dem target seats isn’t massively overlapping to say the least, so with the exception possibly of a couple of Green targets that essentially a threat to let the Tories back in.
Some interesting people have pivoted to the Lin Dems.
For example one of Lutfur Rahman's prominent sidekicks.
Ex-sidekicks. She'd fallen out with Rahman years before she defected.
Thanks for the comment. I have not read in detail.
New political “wall” alert: You've heard of the Red Wall, you might have heard of the Blue Wall. Today I'm unveiling the a new third-wall - the Ivy Wall.
These 31 English constituencies are each home to an Ivy Restaurant and will decide the fate of both the Liberal Democrats and Greens at the next GE (1/6)
Quite a useful concept. Also shows how the Ivy is doing what restaurants always do, overextend
Is there a Waitrose Wall? And a Booths Wall? I like the idea in general. Warminster definitely feels more upmarket for the presence of Waitrose (although we will shortly be dragged down by a McDonalds about 100 yards away...)
Warminster, the so-called racehorse, let me down for my trixie on Sunday. Research into the flipped red wall found that one significant marker of a town's perceived decline was the departure of its major shops. Once Waitrose closes, you will find yourself backing Boris and Brexit.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
The venn diagram of where there’s a large Muslim population and Lib Dem target seats isn’t massively overlapping to say the least, so with the exception possibly of a couple of Green targets that essentially a threat to let the Tories back in.
Might be useful in Woking. It has the oldest mosque in the country, built in 1889. I didn't put 2 and 2 together but Woking only had 2 Lab councillors, both in the same ward with a large Muslim population. One was up for re-election this time and the LDs took it off Lab. Could help the LDs take Woking off the Tories.
Mr Burnham adopting long-standing SNP policies. Not that he gives any credit, not at all, for where he got the idea.
Not that it matters - not many voters overlap ... and it's good news.
"If we don't talk about it, it will go away.....
Labour figures should refuse to be drawn into the minutiae of identity politics and instead call out this rightwing playbook.
That line has run out of road, as "Honest John" (sic) found out yesterday.
Yoons: SNP should shut up about indy and deal with things that matter like housing! Yoons: How dare SNP produce innovatory policies on housing which are adopted by rUK!
An anti Thatcherite policy like banning right to buy in new council homes is hardly innovative, just standard left of centre politics in England as much as Scotland
Trump wants to go to jail. He thinks that politically it is how he wins. Absurdly he has failed so far, but with jail the only legal sanction remaining its no strikes and you're out time.
How does jail work when the convict has a secret service detail? You could argue that as the convict would be in the protection of the authorities then they are not needed. How do you apply legal sanction fairly and equally - as demanded by the constitution - when you can't apply it equally because of who the convict is?
If jailed the plan is to keep him in a courthouse holding cell for the time being
New political “wall” alert: You've heard of the Red Wall, you might have heard of the Blue Wall. Today I'm unveiling the a new third-wall - the Ivy Wall.
These 31 English constituencies are each home to an Ivy Restaurant and will decide the fate of both the Liberal Democrats and Greens at the next GE (1/6)
Quite a useful concept. Also shows how the Ivy is doing what restaurants always do, overextend
Is there a Waitrose Wall? And a Booths Wall? I like the idea in general. Warminster definitely feels more upmarket for the presence of Waitrose (although we will shortly be dragged down by a McDonalds about 100 yards away...)
Warminster, the so-called racehorse, let me down for my trixie on Sunday. Research into the flipped red wall found that one significant marker of a town's perceived decline was the departure of its major shops. Once Waitrose closes, you will find yourself backing Boris and Brexit.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
This is a good thing, no? The kinds of people here who talk about Muslim integration and what if a Muslim party turned up - this is a very British way of doing things. You have your petition, in this case the demands, and you go to the party that wants your backing and say "this is the tit for tat for our support". A realistic and, dare I say, moderate approach to the whole thing.
I think 'demands' makes it sound a little too like hostage negotiation...
Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.
I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.
"Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"
I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.
I’ve heard a story that Regents Park are thinking of installing rumble strip sections. Which apparently will barely inconvenience most users, but will be extremely annoying to people on a rigid frame, low profile tires and high speed.
The instinctive reaction to anyone trying to keep fit is to attack them. "Lycra-clad cyclists". "Garmin watch runners". A form of deeply held self-loathing.
The NHS is collapsing under the population's weight. Child obesity is through the roof. It's entirely in the Boomer cohort's self-interest for us to all get healthier, whether through exercise, diet or cleaner air, lest you die choking in a corridor of some rotting hospital. Yet...
The absolute worst example of this was The Drake's prohibition of Parkrun during COVID. A volunteer run, entirely inclusive way to get a bit fitter and meet people of all ages and abilities. A way to prepare your heart and lungs for COVID. Astonishing short-sightedness.
I don't know why anyone younger than 50 and in decent shape should pay the tax that supports those who think like this. We should all move to a country that values personal responsibility and celebrates earning money through work and reducing, wherever possible, your reliance on the state.
(Sorry for the rant. I think my inner Thatcherite even made an appearance)
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
This is a good thing, no? The kinds of people here who talk about Muslim integration and what if a Muslim party turned up - this is a very British way of doing things. You have your petition, in this case the demands, and you go to the party that wants your backing and say "this is the tit for tat for our support". A realistic and, dare I say, moderate approach to the whole thing.
I think 'demands' makes it sound a little too like hostage negotiation...
It's an interest group saying "these are things we care about" - a few of them wouldn't only benefit Muslims (the increase of health spending in most marginalised areas would also help loads of white working class people, those people the Leons of the world say they support).
New political “wall” alert: You've heard of the Red Wall, you might have heard of the Blue Wall. Today I'm unveiling the a new third-wall - the Ivy Wall.
These 31 English constituencies are each home to an Ivy Restaurant and will decide the fate of both the Liberal Democrats and Greens at the next GE (1/6)
Quite a useful concept. Also shows how the Ivy is doing what restaurants always do, overextend
Is there a Waitrose Wall? And a Booths Wall? I like the idea in general. Warminster definitely feels more upmarket for the presence of Waitrose (although we will shortly be dragged down by a McDonalds about 100 yards away...)
One brick in the Booths Wall went Green last week in Ilkley. Part of the Keighley constituency, though, and this is not the sort of town to enjoy a Booths or a Waitrose. It does, however, have The Boltmakers Arms and a heritage railway, so it does have its plus points.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
This is a good thing, no? The kinds of people here who talk about Muslim integration and what if a Muslim party turned up - this is a very British way of doing things. You have your petition, in this case the demands, and you go to the party that wants your backing and say "this is the tit for tat for our support". A realistic and, dare I say, moderate approach to the whole thing.
I think 'demands' makes it sound a little too like hostage negotiation...
It's an interest group saying "these are things we care about" - a few of them wouldn't only benefit Muslims (the increase of health spending in most marginalised areas would also help loads of white working class people, those people the Leon's of the world say they support).
Didn't need that apostrophe. Let's try to hold it together here pls.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
This is a good thing, no? The kinds of people here who talk about Muslim integration and what if a Muslim party turned up - this is a very British way of doing things. You have your petition, in this case the demands, and you go to the party that wants your backing and say "this is the tit for tat for our support". A realistic and, dare I say, moderate approach to the whole thing.
I think 'demands' makes it sound a little too like hostage negotiation...
It's an interest group saying "these are things we care about" - a few of them wouldn't only benefit Muslims (the increase of health spending in most marginalised areas would also help loads of white working class people, those people the Leon's of the world say they support).
Didn't need that apostrophe. Let's try to hold it together here pls.
If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.
PB.com has analytical lacunae when it comes to DJT. I must have seen solemn predictions of his imminent bankruptcy and/or imprisonment hundreds of times on here since 2020 and it never happens.
I don't know why everyone is so arsed about it. He probably dislikes the UK slightly less than JRB and will definitely be less warry so unless you live in the US, Trump 47 is probably mostly irrelevant.
Also, it'll be fucking solid gold lolz if he wins. You should all be grateful; not many people see the implosion of an overpowering imperial hegemony in their lifetimes.
Trump wants to go to jail. He thinks that politically it is how he wins. Absurdly he has failed so far, but with jail the only legal sanction remaining its no strikes and you're out time.
How does jail work when the convict has a secret service detail? You could argue that as the convict would be in the protection of the authorities then they are not needed. How do you apply legal sanction fairly and equally - as demanded by the constitution - when you can't apply it equally because of who the convict is?
If jailed the plan is to keep him in a courthouse holding cell for the time being
One suggestion I have seen is for a hour or two as a first wake-up call.
There are also analogies around about it being called a "timeout" as happens to tantrumming 3 year olds or footballers.
"You're losing control again, Mr Trump - I'm giving you a one hour timeout in the cooler. Do you want your pacifier?"
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
This is a good thing, no? The kinds of people here who talk about Muslim integration and what if a Muslim party turned up - this is a very British way of doing things. You have your petition, in this case the demands, and you go to the party that wants your backing and say "this is the tit for tat for our support". A realistic and, dare I say, moderate approach to the whole thing.
I think 'demands' makes it sound a little too like hostage negotiation...
It's an interest group saying "these are things we care about" - a few of them wouldn't only benefit Muslims (the increase of health spending in most marginalised areas would also help loads of white working class people, those people the Leon's of the world say they support).
Didn't need that apostrophe. Let's try to hold it together here pls.
The Leaver's Apostrophe in this blatant lie by Shappsie was a good one.
Trump wants to go to jail. He thinks that politically it is how he wins. Absurdly he has failed so far, but with jail the only legal sanction remaining its no strikes and you're out time.
How does jail work when the convict has a secret service detail? You could argue that as the convict would be in the protection of the authorities then they are not needed. How do you apply legal sanction fairly and equally - as demanded by the constitution - when you can't apply it equally because of who the convict is?
If jailed the plan is to keep him in a courthouse holding cell for the time being
One suggestion I have seen is for a hour or two as a first wake-up call.
There are also analogies around about it being called a "timeout" as happens to tantrumming 3 year olds or footballers.
"You're losing control again, Mr Trump - I'm giving you a one hour timeout in the cooler. Do you want your pacifier?"
I mean, it wouldn't be a "wake up call" though, would it? If you popped him in a cell for an hour or two he'd just get bored and annoyed, and then as soon as he got out again he'd blabber about how strong he is for surviving it and how awfully persecuted he is. Drawing it out is the problem - treating him with kid gloves just proves to his base that people are scared of him and that must mean he is strong. If the law will bend to him, he must be in the right and they must know, in their heart of hearts, this is a stitch up. Etc. etc. They should have denied him bail at the outset.
On topic I hesitate to point out again, because it gives me no joy whatsoever, that Trump is currently ahead in the polling nationally and, even more importantly, is ahead in the polling in every battleground state, every single one.
This was not the position in 2016 when he was well behind on the polling and got fewer votes over the country as a whole and still won. He is well ahead of where he was then, well ahead.
If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.
There's 1.1pts in it nationally according to RCP you linked. The Economist tracker is similar.
That's a race that is neck and neck when we're still 6 months out from election day. Trump may be favourite but the polling lead isn't insurmountable in the way it is for the Tories here (where most people assume a small swingback but in this case it still leaves them 10+ points behind).
But neck and neck is a win for Trump. He proved that in 2016. The Electoral College favours him or indeed any Republican. The winning post in 2016, for a fairly comfortable EC win, was 46.1%. Where he is, right now. Clinton got 48.2% and lost.
He has now been found guilty of contempt of court 10x. Its not moving the polls. If anything they have swung very slightly back in his direction in the last week.
Biden is on 49% and 52% on the new polls in the header, that is more than enough for him to win again even if Trump still gets his 47% especially as Biden outperformed Hillary in the swing rustbelt states.
Only once the actual verdict is in in the Trump criminal trial might it make any difference in the polls at all and then only if some guilty verdicts and then likely only shifting some more Independents to Biden. Trump's base would probably now stick with him even if he was convicted of and jailed for murder sad to say as he himself has alluded to however the Independents who usually decide US elections wouldn't
"Biden outperformed Hillary in the swing rustbelt states."
Not really true. Biden outperformed Clinton nationally.
Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.
I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.
"Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"
I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.
I’ve heard a story that Regents Park are thinking of installing rumble strip sections. Which apparently will barely inconvenience most users, but will be extremely annoying to people on a rigid frame, low profile tires and high speed.
The instinctive reaction to anyone trying to keep fit is to attack them. "Lycra-clad cyclists". "Garmin watch runners". A form of deeply held self-loathing.
The NHS is collapsing under the population's weight. Child obesity is through the roof. It's entirely in the Boomer cohort's self-interest for us to all get healthier, whether through exercise, diet or cleaner air, lest you die choking in a corridor of some rotting hospital. Yet...
The absolute worst example of this was The Drake's prohibition of Parkrun during COVID. A volunteer run, entirely inclusive way to get a bit fitter and meet people of all ages and abilities. A way to prepare your heart and lungs for COVID. Astonishing short-sightedness.
I don't know why anyone younger than 50 and in decent shape should pay the tax that supports those who think like this. We should all move to a country that values personal responsibility and celebrates earning money through work and reducing, wherever possible, your reliance on the state.
(Sorry for the rant. I think my inner Thatcherite even made an appearance)
There are two other, opposing, knee jerk reactions. One is cyclists good, evil motorists bad. The second is its opposite. As a mere pedestrian, I find cyclists harder to deal with as they are less predictable: have they seen me? Will they let me cross?. On the other hand, I'd also say driving standards are slipping. On the third hand, the recent well-intentioned changes to the Highway Code with its hierarchy of risk does not seem to have helped much.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
This is a good thing, no? The kinds of people here who talk about Muslim integration and what if a Muslim party turned up - this is a very British way of doing things. You have your petition, in this case the demands, and you go to the party that wants your backing and say "this is the tit for tat for our support". A realistic and, dare I say, moderate approach to the whole thing.
I think 'demands' makes it sound a little too like hostage negotiation...
It's an interest group saying "these are things we care about" - a few of them wouldn't only benefit Muslims (the increase of health spending in most marginalised areas would also help loads of white working class people, those people the Leon's of the world say they support).
Didn't need that apostrophe. Let's try to hold it together here pls.
"Muslim Vote group issues 18 demands to Starmer The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
This is a good thing, no? The kinds of people here who talk about Muslim integration and what if a Muslim party turned up - this is a very British way of doing things. You have your petition, in this case the demands, and you go to the party that wants your backing and say "this is the tit for tat for our support". A realistic and, dare I say, moderate approach to the whole thing.
I think 'demands' makes it sound a little too like hostage negotiation...
It's an interest group saying "these are things we care about" - a few of them wouldn't only benefit Muslims (the increase of health spending in most marginalised areas would also help loads of white working class people, those people the Leon's of the world say they support).
Didn't need that apostrophe. Let's try to hold it together here pls.
I have a butchers grasp of apostrophes
Incorrect. You "have a Butchers grasp of apostrophe's" would be more appropriate.
Trump wants to go to jail. He thinks that politically it is how he wins. Absurdly he has failed so far, but with jail the only legal sanction remaining its no strikes and you're out time.
How does jail work when the convict has a secret service detail? You could argue that as the convict would be in the protection of the authorities then they are not needed. How do you apply legal sanction fairly and equally - as demanded by the constitution - when you can't apply it equally because of who the convict is?
If jailed the plan is to keep him in a courthouse holding cell for the time being
Trump wants to go to jail. He thinks that politically it is how he wins. Absurdly he has failed so far, but with jail the only legal sanction remaining its no strikes and you're out time.
How does jail work when the convict has a secret service detail? You could argue that as the convict would be in the protection of the authorities then they are not needed. How do you apply legal sanction fairly and equally - as demanded by the constitution - when you can't apply it equally because of who the convict is?
If jailed the plan is to keep him in a courthouse holding cell for the time being
One suggestion I have seen is for a hour or two as a first wake-up call.
There are also analogies around about it being called a "timeout" as happens to tantrumming 3 year olds or footballers.
"You're losing control again, Mr Trump - I'm giving you a one hour timeout in the cooler. Do you want your pacifier?"
I mean, it wouldn't be a "wake up call" though, would it? If you popped him in a cell for an hour or two he'd just get bored and annoyed, and then as soon as he got out again he'd blabber about how strong he is for surviving it and how awfully persecuted he is. Drawing it out is the problem - treating him with kid gloves just proves to his base that people are scared of him and that must mean he is strong. If the law will bend to him, he must be in the right and they must know, in their heart of hearts, this is a stitch up. Etc. etc. They should have denied him bail at the outset.
I'd agree with your last comment. But I think the Judge will continue to bend over backwards to be incremental. His last warning to Trump was very blunt, however.
But they didn't - this has all highlighted imo:
1 - the fragility of USA democracy, and how it seems (unlike Western Europe .. recently) to have a reverse gear.
2 - institutional cowardice. We can hardly be proud on this, though.
There's a big reform agenda, which will need to extend to things like sorting out the SCOTUS.
Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.
I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.
"Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"
I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.
I’ve heard a story that Regents Park are thinking of installing rumble strip sections. Which apparently will barely inconvenience most users, but will be extremely annoying to people on a rigid frame, low profile tires and high speed.
The instinctive reaction to anyone trying to keep fit is to attack them. "Lycra-clad cyclists". "Garmin watch runners". A form of deeply held self-loathing.
The NHS is collapsing under the population's weight. Child obesity is through the roof. It's entirely in the Boomer cohort's self-interest for us to all get healthier, whether through exercise, diet or cleaner air, lest you die choking in a corridor of some rotting hospital. Yet...
The absolute worst example of this was The Drake's prohibition of Parkrun during COVID. A volunteer run, entirely inclusive way to get a bit fitter and meet people of all ages and abilities. A way to prepare your heart and lungs for COVID. Astonishing short-sightedness.
I don't know why anyone younger than 50 and in decent shape should pay the tax that supports those who think like this. We should all move to a country that values personal responsibility and celebrates earning money through work and reducing, wherever possible, your reliance on the state.
(Sorry for the rant. I think my inner Thatcherite even made an appearance)
There are two other, opposing, knee jerk reactions. One is cyclists good, evil motorists bad. The second is its opposite. As a mere pedestrian, I find cyclists harder to deal with as they are less predictable: have they seen me? Will they let me cross?. On the other hand, I'd also say driving standards are slipping. On the third hand, the recent well-intentioned changes to the Highway Code with its hierarchy of risk does not seem to have helped much.
There is a humdinger of a spat on X atm about a cyclist twatting himself into a mini.
My view: cyclist at fault, but anything which damages a mini is a good thing.
Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.
I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.
"Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"
I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.
I’ve heard a story that Regents Park are thinking of installing rumble strip sections. Which apparently will barely inconvenience most users, but will be extremely annoying to people on a rigid frame, low profile tires and high speed.
The instinctive reaction to anyone trying to keep fit is to attack them. "Lycra-clad cyclists". "Garmin watch runners". A form of deeply held self-loathing.
The NHS is collapsing under the population's weight. Child obesity is through the roof. It's entirely in the Boomer cohort's self-interest for us to all get healthier, whether through exercise, diet or cleaner air, lest you die choking in a corridor of some rotting hospital. Yet...
The absolute worst example of this was The Drake's prohibition of Parkrun during COVID. A volunteer run, entirely inclusive way to get a bit fitter and meet people of all ages and abilities. A way to prepare your heart and lungs for COVID. Astonishing short-sightedness.
I don't know why anyone younger than 50 and in decent shape should pay the tax that supports those who think like this. We should all move to a country that values personal responsibility and celebrates earning money through work and reducing, wherever possible, your reliance on the state.
(Sorry for the rant. I think my inner Thatcherite even made an appearance)
There are two other, opposing, knee jerk reactions. One is cyclists good, evil motorists bad. The second is its opposite. As a mere pedestrian, I find cyclists harder to deal with as they are less predictable: have they seen me? Will they let me cross?. On the other hand, I'd also say driving standards are slipping. On the third hand, the recent well-intentioned changes to the Highway Code with its hierarchy of risk does not seem to have helped much.
There is a humdinger of a spat on X atm about a cyclist twatting himself into a mini.
My view: cyclist at fault, but anything which damages a mini is a good thing.
Comments
He has now been found guilty of contempt of court 10x. Its not moving the polls. If anything they have swung very slightly back in his direction in the last week.
Swinney is 60 and that is a pretty average age for a First Minister, PM or President most of whom are in their fifties or sixties as is Starmer. Rishi is just a young PM, Biden an old President
Only once the actual verdict is in in the Trump criminal trial might it make any difference in the polls at all and then
only if some guilty verdicts
and then likely only shifting some more Independents to
Biden. Trump's base would
probably now stick with him
even if he was convicted of
and jailed for murder sad to say as he himself has alluded
to however the Independents
who usually decide US
elections wouldn't
The USA has an elderly President who is doing a good job.
The UK has had 15 years (arguably many more years) of younger Prime Ministers than has been normal for our history, even whilst life expectancy has increased a long way, and it has been a shit-show.
(Blue bar is time as PM)
I don't know why everyone is so arsed about it. He probably dislikes the UK slightly less than JRB and will definitely be less warry so unless you live in the US, Trump 47 is probably mostly irrelevant.
Also, it'll be fucking solid gold lolz if he wins. You should all be grateful; not many people see the implosion of an overpowering imperial hegemony in their lifetimes.
As for the US, you can currently find polling to support anything from a Biden hold to a Red tsunami, i personallg think the downside risks are more for Biden running in but we will see. Its a mile off yet, time for a flock of Black Swans
parents ageing and needing support), young enough that the world they grew up in was vaguely recognisable to the modern day.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
I have a spreadsheet showing latest polls by state and the overall outcome. I can also adjust for the bias in RV, i.e. for differential turnout.
With no adjustment, the current outcome is 227/331 to Trump.
With an adjustment of 3% (between RV and LV as described in the header) the outcome is 273/265 to Biden.
Polls seem to be moving towards Biden but they are quite volatile and it matters whether Kennedy is included in the question.
Still early days, but my money is on Biden.
Mr Burnham adopting long-standing SNP policies. Not that he gives any credit, not at all, for where he got the idea.
Not that it matters - not many voters overlap ... and it's good news.
Makes perfect sense.
Now, the last GE when both candidates were this disliked (Clinton vs Trump) - Trump won. I still say that's in part because lots of people saw Trump as the moderate in 2016, which is not the case any more. But also people have soured on Biden since the Afghanistan withdrawal and the increase in inflation. I still think Trump is favourite (as much as I wish otherwise) because I see 2020 as anomalous - I think if it wasn't for Covid he would have been reelected.
Dogcatchers are elected though
Tree falls in Epping,
yet only squirrels see it.
Is it a DK?
May PM in her sixties and Starmer would also be a PM over 60
For a start. More to come, I think.
I've watch a few Fox segments over the last few days, and I don't know what those guys are on but @Leon probably wants some.
Another part of the hollowing out process.
But the recent ones aren't dead yet
Maybe PM Starmer will be boring and competent.
How does jail work when the convict has a secret service detail? You could argue that as the convict would be in the protection of the authorities then they are not needed. How do you apply legal sanction fairly and equally - as demanded by the constitution - when you can't apply it equally because of who the convict is?
Now in this case I think the civil servant had a good point, but I can also see why ministers get frustrated when they believe that the civil service is running counter to their wishes (often it is!).
I rather like our system. It reminds me a bit of student union officials and their campaigns, which then meet the reality of what can be achieved in office. The civil service. at its best, should be the reservoir of knowledge, experience etc to run the country.
And no, I cannot explain the home office.
The group warned Labour that it would recommend supporters to vote Greens or Lib Dems if its demands were not met"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/muslim-vote-group-issues-18-demands-to-starmer-lhx8zhdp5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7oyaHgvCd0
There are special "Very Important Prisoner" units. Chump would be in effective solitary with accommodation provided for his Secret Service detail.
I think there are plenty of precedents. Steve Bannon for one is due to go to prison I think for contempt of congress wrt not answering a subpoena, but was left out whilst he appeals by a Trump appointed judge iirc.
Usonia has a lorra-lorra prisons. Prisonville, USA, is about as populous as Hamburg or Warsaw - 1.8 million people.
Labour figures should refuse to be drawn into the minutiae of identity politics and instead call out this rightwing playbook.
That line has run out of road, as "Honest John" (sic) found out yesterday.
Amongst the weird currents and eddies of Facebook there was a recent flurry of terribly written articles about pop/rock stars bitching about other ones, ‘why Keith Richards hates this song’, ‘ Kylie will never be in the same room as X’ etc. Seems to have died down for the moment.
Or maybe that was fake news on TW3?
https://www.theguardian.com/music/article/2024/may/06/drake-denies-allegations-kendrick-lamar-diss-tracks
I was going to say that I didn't suppose they were consciously adopting the guid auld Scots concept of flyting. But to my surprise there's been quite a bit of writing connecting it with rap etc., albeit the academic side. So maybe it's all more connected after all, the world outside PB.
https://www.royalscottishacademy.org/events/16/
https://journal.oraltradition.org/wp-content/uploads/files/articles/29i/04_29.1.pdf
UK 53.0
EuroZone 41.9
France 41.5
Germany 37.5
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases
Does suggest something of an economic malaise in much of Europe.
Yoons: How dare SNP produce innovatory policies on housing which are adopted by rUK!
Well we can just demand that they all vote Labour. Problem solved.
For example one of Lutfur Rahman's prominent sidekicks.
Drake happened on the bossa nova setting on his nephew's Fisher Price keyboard some time around 2014, and changed rap into dirgy Mr Lover Lover pigswill as a result.
Beef started with a really innocuous bit of Kendrick braggadocio a few years back and has escalated to an absurd degree.
Nothing we don't see on PB every day tbh.
"In April, the Eurozone's construction sector appears to be even further from recovery compared to the previous month. Civil engineering activity is in a bad state, commercial activity is worse and housing activity looks bleak. While the performance of housing and civil engineering is similarly as bad than in previous months, the crisis in commercial building activity, including offices, has deepened. With the marginal softening of the fall in new orders, any expectation of a near-term recovery seems unfounded.
The development in the Eurozone's construction sector, which has been rather varied in recent months, is now converging among Germany, France and Italy. However, this convergence is not cause for celebration, as Italy has simply joined the club of countries with a shrinking construction sector. Until recently, Italy had shown surprising resilience linked to the so-called superbonus program and recovery and resilience plan. Both seem to have lost force over the last months, in part because they are running out.
The most forward-looking indicator of new orders in April is almost as dire as it has been over the past five months. New orders are plummeting rapidly, with Germany leading the downward trend, followed by France and Italy. This trend does not augur well for the near future, indicating that the construction sector's recession will persist in Germany and France, while beginning to take hold in Italy."
https://www.gettyimages.co.nz/detail/news-photo/british-labour-politician-harold-wilson-smoking-the-pipe-uk-news-photo/1198233757 - Wilson, March 76
Macklemore just dropped a Palestine track that was straight fire and took a jab at Drake.
You've heard of the Red Wall, you might have heard of the Blue Wall. Today I'm unveiling the a new third-wall - the Ivy Wall.
These 31 English constituencies are each home to an Ivy Restaurant and will decide the fate of both the Liberal Democrats and Greens at the next GE (1/6)
https://x.com/adb0wen/status/1787486761163133421?s=46
Quite a useful concept. Also shows how the Ivy is doing what restaurants always do, overextend
https://archive.ph/eP8SL
And yes, one or two very questionable organisations are involved.
Or maybe not.
See for instance:-
Beyond the Red Wall Why Labour Lost, How the Conservatives Won and What Will Happen Next?
By Deborah Mattinson
https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/beyond-the-red-wall
1. Had the Netanyahu government been willing and able, it would have stopped the importation of the red heifers from Texas;
2. With Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich in the government, it's clear that Kahanism has (in practice) been unbanned;
3. The size of the Arab population in J+WB is not much larger (~2.9m) than the population of Gaza (~2.4m).
Hence he can do no wrong. And probably didn't in this instance.
I do like the idea of "diss tracks" btw. A scrap but singing, like West Side Story. Or Mozart. Good to see the tradition continues.
The NHS is collapsing under the population's weight. Child obesity is through the roof. It's entirely in the Boomer cohort's self-interest for us to all get healthier, whether through exercise, diet or cleaner air, lest you die choking in a corridor of some rotting hospital. Yet...
The absolute worst example of this was The Drake's prohibition of Parkrun during COVID. A volunteer run, entirely inclusive way to get a bit fitter and meet people of all ages and abilities. A way to prepare your heart and lungs for COVID. Astonishing short-sightedness.
I don't know why anyone younger than 50 and in decent shape should pay the tax that supports those who think like this. We should all move to a country that values personal responsibility and celebrates earning money through work and reducing, wherever possible, your reliance on the state.
(Sorry for the rant. I think my inner Thatcherite even made an appearance)
A Labour gain, I should think.
There are also analogies around about it being called a "timeout" as happens to tantrumming 3 year olds or footballers.
"You're losing control again, Mr Trump - I'm giving you a one hour timeout in the cooler. Do you want your pacifier?"
Not really true. Biden outperformed Clinton nationally.
But they didn't - this has all highlighted imo:
1 - the fragility of USA democracy, and how it seems (unlike Western Europe .. recently) to have a reverse gear.
2 - institutional cowardice. We can hardly be proud on this, though.
There's a big reform agenda, which will need to extend to things like sorting out the SCOTUS.
My view: cyclist at fault, but anything which damages a mini is a good thing.
https://twitter.com/EnemyCoastAhead/status/1787182732109586839?t=nI4xpr4aRfHU2AatKLQpvg&s=19