Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

The Likely Lad – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 7 in General
imageThe Likely Lad – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Two polls this week show President Biden leading Trump by a wide margin among likely voters. Although we should never rely on polls, I’d much rather be Biden than Trump right now:ABC News 49% to 45% (+4)NPR/Marist 52% to 47% (+5) pic.twitter.com/INWqQb7Ban

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,050
    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather depressing stuff.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    edited May 7
    Trump is also determined to get himself locked up, judging by his latest outburst.

    I imagine he assumes that being locked up will play to his base and enhance his standing as a martyr.

    Has he considered, however, that if he's locked up in New York, even if he's found not guilty and released he could still have his bail revoked in Washington or Georgia and end up in prison until he comes to trial - trials he's made every effort to delay?

    Can't imagine that will help with independents or even moderate republicans.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,286
    I'd rather be Biden than Trump at any time.

    Though I wouldn't choose to be either.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,286
    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather depressing stuff.

    The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    edited May 7
    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    Never knew you hated Man U.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,286
    DougSeal said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather depressing stuff.

    The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
    There are plenty of Democrats who might make serious presidential challenges in four years' time. But the reality is that Biden is a sitting president who has governed pretty well, and there's never much mileage in challenging first term presidents unless they've ballsed up on a large scale.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    It would buy Israel some time though, and I doubt Hamas would try another October 7 anytime soon given how comprehensively it blew up in their face.

    Israel’s economy must be having a pretty hard time of it and I’m not sure they’re going to want trade sanctions from Turkey indefinitely.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    In other news, here’s a where am I quiz for the morning.



    Not quite the Grand Canyon rim (I agree with others on that by the way, strangely unmoving vs elsewhere in that region) but a pleasant breakfast view. Sliced cheese for scale.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Presumably because many are already dead.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,964

    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather depressing stuff.

    Really? I was rather cheered by the header.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,286
    Israeli forces say they have operational control of Palestinian side of Rafah crossing in Gaza

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/07/israel-idf-control-rafah-crossing-gaza-palestine-side-hamas-war-latest-update
    Israeli military forces have taken control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, a key strategic objective and the sole gateway between Egypt and Gaza for humanitarian aid, Israeli military officials have confirmed.

    “At the moment we have operational control of the Gazan side of the Rafah crossing and we have special forces scanning the crossing … That is what is happening in the upcoming hours. The operation is not over … I can’t give a timeline,” a military official said on Tuesday morning.

    The spokesperson of the Gaza border authority on Tuesday confirmed the presence of Israeli tanks at the Rafah crossing. Aid officials in the territory said that the flow of aid through the crossing has been halted...


  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043

    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather depressing stuff.

    Really? I was rather cheered by the header.
    I initially misread it as Trump leading too, because the chart looks like an opinion poll tracker.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    edited May 7
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Presumably because many are already dead.
    Yes, very probably. But that means, immediately, in implying they will hand them over alive Hamas are lying already.

    Which, coupled to their long history of false phrases and double dealing, leaves them with a credibility gap slightly larger than Donald Trump's ego.

    Hamas are in a weak negotiating position. Doubly so because Netanyahu and large chunks of his cabinet want to continue the war. The people of Gaza literally have guns pointed at their head and the finger round the trigger is tightening. They really can't afford for Hamas to ask for or even unilaterally agree to generous terms.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
    Hmmm. Very easy to say they've died in 'Israeli attacks,' and possibly true, but it seems overwhelmingly likely many more will have been killed by Hamas. Killing Israelis is what Hamas does. What it enjoys.

    The point I think you are missing is that releasing hostages is what will get them a deal, not the other way around.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    edited May 7
    We’ll cope with that. At least we’re not Spurs fans.

    True story. When we were at our lowest ebb four or five years ago attempted to sympathise on FB with a soon to be ex-friend’s lament over a poor Tottenham performance by saying “could be worse, you could be an Ipswich fan like me”.

    “Fuck off with comparing us to your tiny club”, my old school chum replied.

    “Well, we won the league more recently than you” I replied.

    He unfriended me and we haven’t spoken since. His loss.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    He's been posting images of Biden being killed in inventive ways. What could be more troublesome than that?
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    The judge has given him every inch of rope. Because he, the judge, knows that sending Trump to prison will set off legal stuff up to the Supreme Court. And he wants what he does to stick…

    OT: I’d like to see polling from the swing states. While in theory, a fair lead gets you the electoral college automatically, the polarisation of the electorate and “sectionalism” as they used to call it…
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    He's been posting images of Biden being killed in inventive ways. What could be more troublesome than that?
    I think there are even fewer Old Pence (no pun intended) to his Shilling than there were before. He’s losing it.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164
    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
    Good morning everybody!
    I’m rather surprised that after all the Israeli effort, no hostages have been found, alive or dead. Apart from the three the Israelis shot themselves!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    Pedantic and are the graph line labels the wrong way round for Biden and Trump?

    Or have I misread it?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
    Hmmm. Very easy to say they've died in 'Israeli attacks,' and possibly true, but it seems overwhelmingly likely many more will have been killed by Hamas. Killing Israelis is what Hamas does. What it enjoys.

    The point I think you are missing is that releasing hostages is what will get them a deal, not the other way around.
    Hamas are evil but not totally stupid . Their leverage is the hostages alive . The hostages that have died are likely to be because of IDF bombings.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766

    Pedantic and are the graph line labels the wrong way round for Biden and Trump?

    Or have I misread it?

    No, that's the Betfair prices over the last month.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043

    Pedantic and are the graph line labels the wrong way round for Biden and Trump?

    Or have I misread it?

    Betting odds
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315
    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    I read that quote; but you must also read it in context with the 'deal' Hamas have agreed. The conditions include: "The reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip over a period of three to five years – including homes, civilian facilities, and infrastructure – and compensating all those affected begins,"

    I'd strongly argue that Hamas giving up hostile activity would be a prerequisite of reconstruction; because reconstruction's rather hard if one side is still hostile. As for compensation: that's a whole other mess.

    Personally, I don't want genocide by any of the parties involved in this hideous situation. And that means both Israel and Hamas.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    He's been posting images of Biden being killed in inventive ways. What could be more troublesome than that?
    I think there are even fewer Old Pence (no pun intended) to his Shilling than there were before. He’s losing it.
    Trump can’t entirely convert his legal troubles into “persecution” - even in his own mind. Which means he is losing. In a public and definable way that can’t be spun as winning. Even in his own head.

    His entire internal “story” is that he is the winner. Always. Winning the presidency escalated that to insane levels.

    Actually, provably, publicly losing is an existential event for his personality.

    Truss : presumably she would introduce 1-1-8 formation at Man U?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635
    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
    Hmmm. Very easy to say they've died in 'Israeli attacks,' and possibly true, but it seems overwhelmingly likely many more will have been killed by Hamas. Killing Israelis is what Hamas does. What it enjoys.

    The point I think you are missing is that releasing hostages is what will get them a deal, not the other way around.
    Hamas are evil but not totally stupid . Their leverage is the hostages alive . The hostages that have died are likely to be because of IDF bombings.
    October 7th - where many of them seem to have genuinely believed they were going to conquer the whole of Israel - says otherwise.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
    Good morning everybody!
    I’m rather surprised that after all the Israeli effort, no hostages have been found, alive or dead. Apart from the three the Israelis shot themselves!
    My WAGs would be that may of the hostages are either dead and well buried; not in Gaza any more, or Hamas is still very much in functioning form in Gaza and can readily move the hostages about.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    Good morning everyone.

    Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.

    I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.

    "Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"

    I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.

    https://archive.ph/1BfAa
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,635

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
    Good morning everybody!
    I’m rather surprised that after all the Israeli effort, no hostages have been found, alive or dead. Apart from the three the Israelis shot themselves!
    My WAGs would be that may of the hostages are either dead and well buried; not in Gaza any more, or Hamas is still very much in functioning form in Gaza and can readily move the hostages about.
    All of those scenarios involve complete failure of official Israeli policy, no?

    (To be fair, there's the official pretext for the invasion and the actual reason.)
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    I think that is a case of "if you believe that, you'll believe anything."

    I'd suggest the decision is for the Iranian Government, not Hamas. They would either reinvent Hamas, or create something else similar.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
    Good morning everybody!
    I’m rather surprised that after all the Israeli effort, no hostages have been found, alive or dead. Apart from the three the Israelis shot themselves!
    My WAGs would be that may of the hostages are either dead and well buried; not in Gaza any more, or Hamas is still very much in functioning form in Gaza and can readily move the hostages about.
    Given cruel way he used to zip closed poor old Zippy‘s mouth I’m not surprised he joined the Met
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857

    Pedantic and are the graph line labels the wrong way round for Biden and Trump?

    Or have I misread it?

    No, that's the Betfair prices over the last month.
    Thanks
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    The problem is, Hamas' words are worth precisely nothing. They will simply change their minds later, when the Iranians order them to.

    The Israelis will want guarantees before they agree anything. This didn't even guarantee that the hostages are still alive.
    What if they really do want to end hostilities ? If people refuse to ever accept that this is possible then the cycle of violence will never end .
    If they want to end hostilities, why have they not offered guarantees on the hostages being handed over alive?
    Well of course they should be handed over alive . But it’s obvious some have died in the IDF attacks . It’s not in the interests of Hamas to kill the hostages given its their only leverage . And clearly there’s no way any more hostages will be released until there’s a deal agreed.
    Hmmm. Very easy to say they've died in 'Israeli attacks,' and possibly true, but it seems overwhelmingly likely many more will have been killed by Hamas. Killing Israelis is what Hamas does. What it enjoys.

    The point I think you are missing is that releasing hostages is what will get them a deal, not the other way around.
    Hamas are evil but not totally stupid . Their leverage is the hostages alive . The hostages that have died are likely to be because of IDF bombings.
    You are assuming rational decision making by a participant in the Middle East conflict?

    If that is too near to judge dispassionately - recall the recent Balkan Wars. Consider the example of the Croat militias. When the Americans armed the anti-Serb forces to end the war, they made clear

    1) the purpose of the offensive was to drive the Serbs out if land they had conquered.
    2) atrocities would be dealt with very harshly.
    3) everyone agreed to this
    4) within 5 minutes of stating the offensive, some of the Croat militias started mistreating civilians
    5) the Americans had been expecting this. They cut the units in question off from supplies and support. The militias in question were wiped out by Serb counter attacks. Which the Americans practically encouraged
    6) even after the first round of this, the Americans had to do it again.

  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    He's been posting images of Biden being killed in inventive ways. What could be more troublesome than that?
    I think there are even fewer Old Pence (no pun intended) to his Shilling than there were before. He’s losing it.
    Trump can’t entirely convert his legal troubles into “persecution” - even in his own mind. Which means he is losing. In a public and definable way that can’t be spun as winning. Even in his own head.

    His entire internal “story” is that he is the winner. Always. Winning the presidency escalated that to insane levels.

    Actually, provably, publicly losing is an existential event for his personality.

    Truss : presumably she would introduce 1-1-8 formation at Man U?
    I think she would forgo a goalkeeper on the grounds that they are plants by Deep FIFA to stifle growth. So 1-1-9.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    On topic, encouraging but a long way to go yet.

    The State polling is even more important.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,340
    Cherry-picking polls in the header?

    Other recent polls of likely voters have Trump ahead, and Trump is also doing a little better in the swing states than in national polling.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.

    I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.

    "Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"

    I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.

    https://archive.ph/1BfAa

    Additionally:

    "Because it took her 59 days to die from head injury “complications”, she will not appear on official data as a pedestrian killed on a road following a collision with a cyclist."
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    I don’t think they’ve done anything especially bad. Goodman’s comments weren’t great. By all means say that Ipswich’s defensive record is a challenge in the run in, but to call it “shocking” was something of an exaggeration. FWIW, the last team to go up with a worse defensive record (Norwich in 2010-11) stayed up.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.

    I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.

    "Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"

    I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.

    https://archive.ph/1BfAa

    I’ve heard a story that Regents Park are thinking of installing rumble strip sections. Which apparently will barely inconvenience most users, but will be extremely annoying to people on a rigid frame, low profile tires and high speed.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    He's been posting images of Biden being killed in inventive ways. What could be more troublesome than that?
    I think there are even fewer Old Pence (no pun intended) to his Shilling than there were before. He’s losing it.
    Trump can’t entirely convert his legal troubles into “persecution” - even in his own mind. Which means he is losing. In a public and definable way that can’t be spun as winning. Even in his own head.

    His entire internal “story” is that he is the winner. Always. Winning the presidency escalated that to insane levels.

    Actually, provably, publicly losing is an existential event for his personality.

    Truss : presumably she would introduce 1-1-8 formation at Man U?
    I think she would forgo a goalkeeper on the grounds that they are plants by Deep FIFA to stifle growth. So 1-1-9.
    What about 0-0-11? Thinking about it, 1-1-9 is a bit…. Conservative?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    TimS said:

    In other news, here’s a where am I quiz for the morning.



    Not quite the Grand Canyon rim (I agree with others on that by the way, strangely unmoving vs elsewhere in that region) but a pleasant breakfast view. Sliced cheese for scale.

    I'd slightly superficially plump for Valencia, Spain, on the basis that that brick building in the middle with the steeple (lighthouse?) looks like the 1920s (?) factory/boat/warehouse or whatever it was in the docks area used iirc as pit garages in the GP, and because of the cranes.

    It's been some years since I was there, however.

    If it is, will you be visiting Calatrava's beetle building? I find Calatrava interesting, but his buildings not creative except in concept. On details I go more for Wren.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    I can only conclude my where am I photo was so deadly boring that nobody could be bothered to guess.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having read through the dreary end of the last thread, with several PBers readily giving a provisional thumbs up to genocide, I hope this one starts off better.

    I see none of them quoted this, FWIW.

    ...A senior Palestinian official familiar with the proposal told the BBC that Hamas had agreed to end "hostile activity forever" if the conditions were met...

    I think that is a case of "if you believe that, you'll believe anything."

    I'd suggest the decision is for the Iranian Government, not Hamas. They would either reinvent Hamas, or create something else similar.
    There's no need for Iran to do that. The IDF has created a situation with a couple of hundred thousand Palestinian children to grow up with a fanatical hatred of Israel and nothing else to live for.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    DougSeal said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather depressing stuff.

    The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
    John Swinney was born in 1964, according to Wikipedia. He is several years away from his state pension.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    Looks like good boating weather this week !

    Probably the busiest week of the year .
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,133

    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    The judge has given him every inch of rope. Because he, the judge, knows that sending Trump to prison will set off legal stuff up to the Supreme Court. And he wants what he does to stick…

    OT: I’d like to see polling from the swing states. While in theory, a fair lead gets you the electoral college automatically, the polarisation of the electorate and “sectionalism” as they used to call it…
    Here’s last week’s swing state polling. Look away now if you don’t want to know the result.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/30/trump-leads-biden-swing-states-poll/73510374007/
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    tlg86 said:

    I don’t think they’ve done anything especially bad. Goodman’s comments weren’t great. By all means say that Ipswich’s defensive record is a challenge in the run in, but to call it “shocking” was something of an exaggeration. FWIW, the last team to go up with a worse defensive record (Norwich in 2010-11) stayed up.
    He was saying we would fall away all season. If you give it that much from, roughly, September through April you’re going to get stick. Also - Leeds.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    nico679 said:

    Looks like good boating weather this week !

    Probably the busiest week of the year .

    But Rwanda is working. I am sure I heard that somewhere...
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    TimS said:

    I can only conclude my where am I photo was so deadly boring that nobody could be bothered to guess.

    Badly timed comment :smile:
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    If Trump is "jailed" over the gag order, at most (initially) it will be that he's held in court detention for an hour or two. Essentially, he'll have to to have his lunch in a room adjacent to the court rather than being allowed to go out to play with his friends.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,472

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    Good morning

    Nòoooooooooo
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    TimS said:

    I can only conclude my where am I photo was so deadly boring that nobody could be bothered to guess.

    Venice? The architecture is very reminiscent of Waherhouse's Ruskinian-style museum at Oxford, etc.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    Scott_xP said:

    nico679 said:

    Looks like good boating weather this week !

    Probably the busiest week of the year .

    But Rwanda is working. I am sure I heard that somewhere...
    Sunak will just say that the deterrent won’t kick in till the flights take off regardless of the fact the legislation is now law. And then he’ll blame Labour for being ahead in the polls and the asylum seekers thinking that they can come as Labour are going to ditch the policy if they win . Mark my words the right wing press will go heavily on that .
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    DougSeal said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather depressing stuff.

    The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
    John Swinney was born in 1964, according to Wikipedia. He is several years away from his state pension.
    Six years? Anyway, it’s relative. He’s six years older than Sturgeon and 21 years older than Yousaf. It feels like things are going backwards. Gen X to Millennial, then a jump back to a Boomer, who’s had one go already.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,472
    edited May 7

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    I can only conclude my where am I photo was so deadly boring that nobody could be bothered to guess.

    Badly timed comment :smile:
    I should have waited for PB to awake.

    The two guesses so far - Valencia and Venice, are quite cold in afraid.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    He's been posting images of Biden being killed in inventive ways. What could be more troublesome than that?
    I think there are even fewer Old Pence (no pun intended) to his Shilling than there were before. He’s losing it.
    Trump can’t entirely convert his legal troubles into “persecution” - even in his own mind. Which means he is losing. In a public and definable way that can’t be spun as winning. Even in his own head.

    His entire internal “story” is that he is the winner. Always. Winning the presidency escalated that to insane levels.

    Actually, provably, publicly losing is an existential event for his personality.

    Truss : presumably she would introduce 1-1-8 formation at Man U?
    I think she would forgo a goalkeeper on the grounds that they are plants by Deep FIFA to stifle growth. So 1-1-9.
    What about 0-0-11? Thinking about it, 1-1-9 is a bit…. Conservative?
    No doubt it'd be criticised by the PFA, Gary Lineker, and Roy Keane - or the "Anti-Goal Coalition" as I call them.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I'm surprised he hasn't posted something over night to trigger him ending up in a jail. But, as you say, unless someone removes him from all social media he's likely to post something troublesome sooner rather than later..
    He's been posting images of Biden being killed in inventive ways. What could be more troublesome than that?
    I think there are even fewer Old Pence (no pun intended) to his Shilling than there were before. He’s losing it.
    Trump can’t entirely convert his legal troubles into “persecution” - even in his own mind. Which means he is losing. In a public and definable way that can’t be spun as winning. Even in his own head.

    His entire internal “story” is that he is the winner. Always. Winning the presidency escalated that to insane levels.

    Actually, provably, publicly losing is an existential event for his personality.

    Truss : presumably she would introduce 1-1-8 formation at Man U?
    I think she would forgo a goalkeeper on the grounds that they are plants by Deep FIFA to stifle growth. So 1-1-9.
    What about 0-0-11? Thinking about it, 1-1-9 is a bit…. Conservative?
    No doubt it'd be criticised by the PFA, Gary Lineker, and Roy Keane - or the "Anti-Goal Coalition" as I call them.
    Very good!
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    edited May 7

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.

    I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.

    "Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"

    I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.

    https://archive.ph/1BfAa

    I’ve heard a story that Regents Park are thinking of installing rumble strip sections. Which apparently will barely inconvenience most users, but will be extremely annoying to people on a rigid frame, low profile tires and high speed.
    If there three signalised crossings and various zebras that are already there have not made much difference, it will take a lot of rumble strip sections - like a couple of dozen (which would be one every 125m).

    For some debate, this story has hit road.cc for the Monday live blog; there'll be some interesting comments which are usually perceptive if with certain biases.

    I got as far as the first one noting the nominally distinguished policeman. I'll have another look later.
    https://road.cc/content/news/no-charges-cyclist-after-crash-which-oap-was-killed-308209

    (Update - yes quite good comments from many viewpoints.)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    edited May 7
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    I can only conclude my where am I photo was so deadly boring that nobody could be bothered to guess.

    Badly timed comment :smile:
    I should have waited for PB to awake.

    The two guesses so far - Valencia and Venice, are quite cold in afraid.
    The style of the architecture looks more eastern, and I was thinking Helsinki, except that having been there last year it clearly isn’t on the basis that I don’t recognise anything. And it looks too sunny and warm.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    This is a little long but my word is it punchy: https://youtu.be/-EmHOSRDveE

    Discussing the evidence of Hope Hicks and getting an interesting insight into the mindset of those who support Donald Trump.

    Well worth a watch. You get monsters like Donald Trump because of people like Hope Hicks.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,625

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    If Trump is "jailed" over the gag order, at most (initially) it will be that he's held in court detention for an hour or two. Essentially, he'll have to to have his lunch in a room adjacent to the court rather than being allowed to go out to play with his friends.
    He can have a nod in there.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,625
    Morning all,

    Heartening news on Biden vote. I remain optimistic.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    kamski said:

    Cherry-picking polls in the header?

    Other recent polls of likely voters have Trump ahead, and Trump is also doing a little better in the swing states than in national polling.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    I can only conclude my where am I photo was so deadly boring that nobody could be bothered to guess.

    Badly timed comment :smile:
    I should have waited for PB to awake.

    The two guesses so far - Valencia and Venice, are quite cold in afraid.
    The style of the architecture looks more eastern, and I was thinking Helsinki, except that having been there last year it clearly isn’t on the basis that I don’t recognise anything. And it looks too sunny and warm.
    Getting warmer (geographically, not meteorologically)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,952
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.

    I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.

    "Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"

    I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.

    https://archive.ph/1BfAa

    I’ve heard a story that Regents Park are thinking of installing rumble strip sections. Which apparently will barely inconvenience most users, but will be extremely annoying to people on a rigid frame, low profile tires and high speed.
    If there three signalised crossings and various zebras that are already there have not made much difference, it will take a lot of rumble strip sections - like a couple of dozen (which would be one every 125m).

    For some debate, this story has hit road.cc for the Monday live blog; there'll be some interesting comments which are usually perceptive if with certain biases.

    I got as far as the first one noting the nominally distinguished policeman. I'll have another look later.
    https://road.cc/content/news/no-charges-cyclist-after-crash-which-oap-was-killed-308209

    (Update - yes quite good comments from many viewpoints.)
    As I understand it, the rumble strips would be to “defend” the pedestrian crossings. Slow the cyclists down and then keep their speed down until past the pedestrian crossings.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,599
    @TimS the tower looks very much like the one in Stockholm, but can't say I recognise the rest of it
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    Gambled away in the financial crisis - The Deutsche Bank story | DW Documentary
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19m_U_HHqrg

    DW is a bit like the German equivalent of the BBC Foreign Service. The documentary is in English.

    Deutsche Bank was Donald Trump's lender of choice, so it is sort of on-topic for this thread.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather depressing stuff.

    The depressing thing is gerontocracy. I’m 50. Both candidates are older than my parents. And there seems to be no one obvious coming through in either party. At the risk of PB’s social media policeman calling me a “scotch expert” I had the same thought regarding the SNP coronation. They’ve picked a dude who was also leader when I was in my 20s.
    John Swinney was born in 1964, according to Wikipedia. He is several years away from his state pension.
    Six years? Anyway, it’s relative. He’s six years older than Sturgeon and 21 years older than Yousaf. It feels like things are going backwards. Gen X to Millennial, then a jump back to a Boomer, who’s had one go already.
    In 15 years or so he will be old enough to run for President of the United States.

    Swinney has a number of problems, including a record of incompetence and positive harm in many of the posts he has held over his career. His time in charge of education was perhaps the, one hesitates to say highlight, of his career. But age isn't one of the many problems he faces. The SNP have replaced Yousless with Useless. 2 more years to go.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    If Trump is "jailed" over the gag order, at most (initially) it will be that he's held in court detention for an hour or two. Essentially, he'll have to to have his lunch in a room adjacent to the court rather than being allowed to go out to play with his friends.
    He can have a nod in there.
    I'd suggest the more appropriate step would be to revoke his release due to whatr we would call "breach of bail conditions".

    It's absolutely routine in the USA, and Trump is a normal criminal defendant found guilty of the criminal of contempt of Court, whilst his bail conditions require him not to commit *any* offences.

    Being purist, it has nothing to do with his likely candidacy for President. He is responsible for the consequences whether he jumps out of a window, or commits contempt. If the Republicans are stupid enough to select a charged criminal suspect as their candidate, that's their lookout.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    Selebian said:

    @TimS the tower looks very much like the one in Stockholm, but can't say I recognise the rest of it

    Very good. Stockholm from the roof of the Hobo hotel. The water and the church were the clues. Rather a sparkling if chilly morning.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
    Cup Final? Play the kids. Most of the first team do not deserve to play. "You'll never win anything with kids" is how Alan Hansen dismissed the Class of 93. Wrong. Liverpool did the same in their cup final recently.

    The thing is, this team? I actively WANT us to lose.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
    Do you remember The Doc? Back from the old Div2 and a cup win?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    @TimS the tower looks very much like the one in Stockholm, but can't say I recognise the rest of it

    Very good. Stockholm from the roof of the Hobo hotel. The water and the church were the clues. Rather a sparkling if chilly morning.
    I will claim half a point for at least being vaguely in the right part of Europe!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    On topic I hesitate to point out again, because it gives me no joy whatsoever, that Trump is currently ahead in the polling nationally and, even more importantly, is ahead in the polling in every battleground state, every single one.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    This was not the position in 2016 when he was well behind on the polling and got fewer votes over the country as a whole and still won. He is well ahead of where he was then, well ahead.

    If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,599
    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    @TimS the tower looks very much like the one in Stockholm, but can't say I recognise the rest of it

    Very good. Stockholm from the roof of the Hobo hotel. The water and the church were the clues. Rather a sparkling if chilly morning.
    Just googled the hotel - ah, I see where you are, don't know that bit really. I've spent some time at the university over several trips and stayed on Gamla Stan and in the suburbs, but once had a meeting at the city hall and remembered the rather distinctive top of that tower.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    kinabalu said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
    Do you remember The Doc? Back from the old Div2 and a cup win?
    As a small kid I became a Liverpool fan because my mates were Liverpool fans and Liverpool were winning. Then my (patient) granddad pointed out that the family originates from Salford and that he used to take my dad and uncles down to The Cliff to watch the team train.

    Then I became a United fan.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,543
    kinabalu said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
    Do you remember The Doc? Back from the old Div2 and a cup win?
    The "I've had more clubs than Jack Nicklaus" Doc?

    As Aston Villa manager he vowed to get them out of Division 2. They were relegated.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535

    kinabalu said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
    Do you remember The Doc? Back from the old Div2 and a cup win?
    As a small kid I became a Liverpool fan because my mates were Liverpool fans and Liverpool were winning. Then my (patient) granddad pointed out that the family originates from Salford and that he used to take my dad and uncles down to The Cliff to watch the team train.

    Then I became a United fan.
    I was a keen Utd fan as a teenager - used to cry when they lost - but now after long years in North London I'm with who I have to be with. The Arse.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,325
    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    @TimS the tower looks very much like the one in Stockholm, but can't say I recognise the rest of it

    Very good. Stockholm from the roof of the Hobo hotel. The water and the church were the clues. Rather a sparkling if chilly morning.
    I think the Brick Tower is the Stockholm Town Hall, not a Church
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    edited May 7
    On the two new polls in the thread header, it looks like little change from 2020. Trump is still getting around the 47% who voted for him then but Biden is now winning back the Independents who voted for him last time over Trump but who did not vote for Hillary in 2016 ie the voters who will decide the election
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    I can only conclude my where am I photo was so deadly boring that nobody could be bothered to guess.

    Badly timed comment :smile:
    I should have waited for PB to awake.

    The two guesses so far - Valencia and Venice, are quite cold in afraid.
    Baltic? Stockholm?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    kinabalu said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
    Do you remember The Doc? Back from the old Div2 and a cup win?
    I remember Gordon McQueen, Bryan Robson, Steve Bruce, players who would play through a brick wall for you in hard times. In the current squad I would give McTominey and Fernandes a pass on that. The rest can go so far as I am concerned.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535

    kinabalu said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
    Do you remember The Doc? Back from the old Div2 and a cup win?
    The "I've had more clubs than Jack Nicklaus" Doc?

    As Aston Villa manager he vowed to get them out of Division 2. They were relegated.
    Yes, bit of an operator, the doc was. Think we'd call him 'old school'.
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 819
    DavidL said:

    On topic I hesitate to point out again, because it gives me no joy whatsoever, that Trump is currently ahead in the polling nationally and, even more importantly, is ahead in the polling in every battleground state, every single one.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    This was not the position in 2016 when he was well behind on the polling and got fewer votes over the country as a whole and still won. He is well ahead of where he was then, well ahead.

    If he was anyone other than Donald Trump you would be calling this for him at this stage. We don't because we don't want to believe it. I don't want to believe it. But Trump is winning and the markets referred to in the thread header are high on Hopium.

    There's 1.1pts in it nationally according to RCP you linked. The Economist tracker is similar.

    That's a race that is neck and neck when we're still 6 months out from election day. Trump may be favourite but the polling lead isn't insurmountable in the way it is for the Tories here (where most people assume a small swingback but in this case it still leaves them 10+ points behind).
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    edited May 7

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Update on the Regents Park cycling collision story I commented on at the weekend.

    I hadn't noticed the excellent name of the Police Sergeant involved, who is presumably ex-Rainbow.

    "Police Detective Sergeant Ropafadzo Bungo"

    I also had not noticed witness statements that they considered the cyclist not to have been at fault. But I stand by my comments that certain things are readily available to be done on the Outer Circle to improve safety.

    https://archive.ph/1BfAa

    I’ve heard a story that Regents Park are thinking of installing rumble strip sections. Which apparently will barely inconvenience most users, but will be extremely annoying to people on a rigid frame, low profile tires and high speed.
    If there three signalised crossings and various zebras that are already there have not made much difference, it will take a lot of rumble strip sections - like a couple of dozen (which would be one every 125m).

    For some debate, this story has hit road.cc for the Monday live blog; there'll be some interesting comments which are usually perceptive if with certain biases.

    I got as far as the first one noting the nominally distinguished policeman. I'll have another look later.
    https://road.cc/content/news/no-charges-cyclist-after-crash-which-oap-was-killed-308209

    (Update - yes quite good comments from many viewpoints.)
    As I understand it, the rumble strips would be to “defend” the pedestrian crossings. Slow the cyclists down and then keep their speed down until past the pedestrian crossings.
    As I understand it the collision was not at a formal pedestrian crossing - it was at a point with a refuge island. One suggestion from the person riding the cycle was that there could be a zebra crossing added at the crossing point.

    Rumble strips could help, if used correctly - which assumes a competence on the part of the authorities which may not exist. I'd have no objection if no hazard is introduced for everyday cyclists or wheelers in any conditions.

    "Make it more dangerous for people riding cycles" is a sticky-plaster strategy used far too often that usually has unintended consequences. It is usually a plaster on an inadequate design.

    An example of poor quality basic design is on the celebrated roundabout at Fender Lane in Cambridge with a raised parallel crossing to prioritise pedestrians / cyclists. There some of the speed reduction "20mph" signs (down from 30mph) have been installed so close to the pedestrian crossing that there is not even enough distance from the sign to the crossing to do a Highway Code distance emergency stop from 20mph, never mind for dozy people who have not seen the sign, or dangerous people who are ignoring it.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    @TimS the tower looks very much like the one in Stockholm, but can't say I recognise the rest of it

    Very good. Stockholm from the roof of the Hobo hotel. The water and the church were the clues. Rather a sparkling if chilly morning.
    I think the Brick Tower is the Stockholm Town Hall, not a Church
    Yes, right you are.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,807

    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    I can only conclude my where am I photo was so deadly boring that nobody could be bothered to guess.

    Badly timed comment :smile:
    I should have waited for PB to awake.

    The two guesses so far - Valencia and Venice, are quite cold in afraid.
    Baltic? Stockholm?
    Helsinki?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Trump is going to jail later this week. Lets see how that plays out.

    As for the other play, can I suggest a merging of things?

    TRUSS

    for Manchester United

    I appreciate that Man U's success over previous decades has generated a lot of jealousy and not a little legitimate Schadenfreude in recent years - fair enough. But this is going *too* far.
    I'm a United fan. Sometimes you need to blow up what is there are rebuild differently. ETH is on his way. Most of the players are on their way. Radcliffe's criticism of a dirty dishevelled back office means many of the management teams are on their way.

    TRUSS isn't me saying Liz Truss for manager, just as TRUSS isn't saying make her PM again. TRUSS is that moment where you blow it up, a deliberate demolition of the mess in front of you when you can see you must go back to the foundations.

    I am not interested in who the next manager will be, because any manager hired by this football club within its current structure will be a failure. We don't need a new manager, we need TRUSS. Blow it up.
    Your explanation meets my 100% approval having been a Man Utd supporter since 1953 and was in the depth of despair living through the Munich Air disaster and being present in Barcelona when we won the treble.

    Experienced every emotion but never wavered
    Do you remember The Doc? Back from the old Div2 and a cup win?
    I remember Gordon McQueen, Bryan Robson, Steve Bruce, players who would play through a brick wall for you in hard times. In the current squad I would give McTominey and Fernandes a pass on that. The rest can go so far as I am concerned.
    They do seem rather flaky. Still, top 4 is a tough ask these days ... even for Manchester United Football Club.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/12j2Esnn-eY

    (never pales)
Sign In or Register to comment.