An unpopularity contest – politicalbetting.com

System

An unpopularity contest – politicalbetting.com

More Americans dislike than like both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party% of U.S. adult citizens with favorable / unfavorable views of…The Democratic Party: 36% / 56%The Republican Party: 33% / 60%https://t.co/f9ltjrsTmU pic.twitter.com/lJn5SvQOZB

Read the full story here

DecrepiterJohnL

We don't do God. (A. Campbell.)

Nigelb

There remains the wild card of RFK Jnr.
Polling suggests his candidacy could do more damage to Biden than Trump (which is presumably why Republican mega donors are funding him).

I suspect he'll get fewer votes than the polling suggests - but in the context of the party and candidate unpopularity, the mendacious grifter will get some plague on both your houses votes.

Trump has played with the anti vaxx movement, but realised it would be a net negative for him. A nut like RFK running is a gift for him.

DavidL

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

DavidL

Nigelb said:

There remains the wild card of RFK Jnr.
Polling suggests his candidacy could do more damage to Biden than Trump (which is presumably why Republican mega donors are funding him).

I suspect he'll get fewer votes than the polling suggests - but in the context of the party and candidate unpopularity, the mendacious grifter will get some plague on both your houses votes.

Trump has played with the anti vaxx movement, but realised it would be a net negative for him. A nut like RFK running is a gift for him.

Again the RCP averages shows this. Trump has had a consistently higher lead in the 5 way (there are actually 3 other candidates) than in the head to head but the differential there has shrunk as well and is now down to a Trump lead of 1.8%. Once again the trend favours Biden and the most recent polling shows the advantage these fringe candidates give Trump fading to very little.

I agree with you that RFK is unlikely to poll anything like what he is currently polling. At the moment he is benefitting from the unpopularity of both candidates that @TSE highlights but once people have a closer look at him I do not believe that he will be the alternative that Americans are looking for.

The Democrats are having a real go at RFK and he is not liking it: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/03/rfk-jr-democrats-third-party-00150497

DecrepiterJohnL

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Someone said in a recent thread that there is an odd disconnect with voters thinking their state's economy is doing well but not the nation as a whole.

DecrepiterJohnL

The headline oversells the Mail's story that MPs have been sent porn by email but even if we put aside the fear this is a spear-phishing attempt, let alone a honey trap, even the unsolicited pictures show the dangers of the pearl-clutching reaction to tractor porn. If every allegation leads to suspension then don't be surprised at opponents making mischief. Ask the ScotFeds ploughing through thousands of complaints about JK Rowling.

At least a dozen MPs, their staff members and political journalists have been targeted in a sinister cyber honeytrap scandal.

Parliamentary authorities are under pressure to investigate after a string of Westminster figures – including a serving minister – were sent flirtatious messages and naked pictures.

Victims have voiced concerns that those behind the 'spear phishing' attacks seem to have intimate knowledge of their lives and movements and there are fears that a foreign state may be involved.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13269333/MPs-caught-naked-honeytrap-sex-sting-Calls-probe-amid-fears-dozens-including-serving-minister-compromised-spear-phishing-attacks-foreign-state-saw-Westminster-figures-sent-naked-pics-flirty-messages.html

Taz

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

JosiasJessop

It seems that Tony Robinson presenting a party political broadcast for the Labour Party has upset lots of Corbynites.

DavidL

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Someone said in a recent thread that there is an odd disconnect with voters thinking their state's economy is doing well but not the nation as a whole.

Yes, and even more weirdly we see polling indicating that Americans think that they are doing quite well personally but things are bad generally. I think that is a consequence of the overly negative and polarised American media but that effect will reduce as people start to pay attention to the actual choice they have.

DavidL

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

Not sure about that. The US deficit was massively increased by Trump's unfunded tax cut and increased every year he was President as a result. As a proportion of GDP it has been smaller every year since Biden took office and the trend is modestly positive. On the other hand it has been pointed out recently that the long term deficits on Medicaid and Social Security are absolutely eyewatering. Like us, the US should be saving more and spending less but I don't see a crisis point any time soon.

Mexicanpete

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did we do this?

Israeli government says it will block Al Jazeera from broadcasting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68708984

(In the UK, Al Jaz is freely available on Freeview 235.)

An incoming airstrike on the Shard?

Heathener

Good morning all.

An astonishing performance by Asmik Grigorian last night in Madama Butterfly to conclude my week in London. An incredibly intense experience. If you ever get the chance to see/hear her then seize it.

How Puccini managed to write an opera from such a female, non-western, perspective is remarkable. It reminds me slightly of Jean Rhys’ Wide Sargasso Sea in that regard.

It's the story, seen through her, of a white western man’s abuse of power and sex, getting an underage Asian girl pregnant and then absolving himself of all responsibility ...

Heathener

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

LostPassword

I look at Biden's approval ratings and I just don't see how he can win. Biden's ratings are worse even than Trump's were during Trump's term in office.

Pulpstar

Off topic - I note Ukraine changed it's conscript age from 27 to 25. Had to check whether it meant lowering the maximum or minimum. Turns out it's lowering in sharp contrast to Israel where I think 27 would be an oldish soldier in the IDF.

Interesting difference between the two nations tbh, most likely demographic driven.

DecrepiterJohnL

On the subject of unpopularity contests, this 8-minute video from Times Radio features Harry Cole talking about Sun readers' reactions to Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak answering questions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dvtf-TZzXW0

As an aside, the Times Radio video editor has the irritating habit of starting each video with an extract from the middle. Please stop.

squareroot2

Are the judges are possibly overstepping the mark when they interfere in political decisions.

Foxy

squareroot2 said:

Are the judges are possibly overstepping the mark when they interfere in political decisions.

In America judges are political appointees. That's their system, and one that MAGA Republicans have enthusiastically used for their own agenda.

Sauce for the goose and all that.

noneoftheabove

The true result will be very close and settled by the economy rather than Trump's court cases. The effective result will be very close and settled by the Supreme Court.

noneoftheabove

Foxy said:

squareroot2 said:

Are the judges are possibly overstepping the mark when they interfere in political decisions.

In America judges are political appointees. That's their system, and one that MAGA Republicans have enthusiastically used for their own agenda.

Sauce for the goose and all that.

Florida judges in trouble with DeSantis for allowing voters a say on abortion.

Also in Nebraska the Trumpites trying to change the electoral college setup to nab a useful single electoral college vote from Biden.

Taz

DavidL said:

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

Not sure about that. The US deficit was massively increased by Trump's unfunded tax cut and increased every year he was President as a result. As a proportion of GDP it has been smaller every year since Biden took office and the trend is modestly positive. On the other hand it has been pointed out recently that the long term deficits on Medicaid and Social Security are absolutely eyewatering. Like us, the US should be saving more and spending less but I don't see a crisis point any time soon.

That's reassuring for us all.

JSpring

On the Democratic and Republican Party ratings, I think it's been the case for quite a long time that the Republicans have had lower ratings than the Democrats in part because the Republicans are less popular with their own base than the Democrats. It doesn't necessarily indicate who is going to win the presidential election.

Sandpit

DecrepiterJohnL said:

The headline oversells the Mail's story that MPs have been sent porn by email but even if we put aside the fear this is a spear-phishing attempt, let alone a honey trap, even the unsolicited pictures show the dangers of the pearl-clutching reaction to tractor porn. If every allegation leads to suspension then don't be surprised at opponents making mischief. Ask the ScotFeds ploughing through thousands of complaints about JK Rowling.

At least a dozen MPs, their staff members and political journalists have been targeted in a sinister cyber honeytrap scandal.

Parliamentary authorities are under pressure to investigate after a string of Westminster figures – including a serving minister – were sent flirtatious messages and naked pictures.

Victims have voiced concerns that those behind the 'spear phishing' attacks seem to have intimate knowledge of their lives and movements and there are fears that a foreign state may be involved.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13269333/MPs-caught-naked-honeytrap-sex-sting-Calls-probe-amid-fears-dozens-including-serving-minister-compromised-spear-phishing-attacks-foreign-state-saw-Westminster-figures-sent-naked-pics-flirty-messages.html

Russia and China are back to their old tricks again. Anywhere with elections this year will become a target. Remember that they don’t care who wins elections, so long as there’s a much polarisation and argument as possible, even (or perhaps especially) over the trivial.

They’re pretty much there in the US now, with two sides of roughly 45% who hate each other to the point of thinking that a win for the other side is an existential crisis for the country. I also suspect they’re behind the pushing of a lot of the Western cultural arguments.

Taz

Three former Supreme Court justices are among over 600 lawyers and academics who have signed a 17-page letter to warn the present situation in Gaza is "catastrophic".

The government has been facing growing calls to suspend arms exports to Israel after three British aid workers were killed in an airstrike.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-is-breaching-international-law-by-continuing-to-arm-israel-sunak-warned/ar-BB1l2eRT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e45fc728e63e499a90ca4ff5763d9fb2&ei=23

Clearly we need a court case from an organisation, like Palestine Action, to challenge these sales to see if they are legal or not.

Casino_Royale

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

malcolmg

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Nutter

malcolmg

Taz said:

Three former Supreme Court justices are among over 600 lawyers and academics who have signed a 17-page letter to warn the present situation in Gaza is "catastrophic".

The government has been facing growing calls to suspend arms exports to Israel after three British aid workers were killed in an airstrike.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-is-breaching-international-law-by-continuing-to-arm-israel-sunak-warned/ar-BB1l2eRT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e45fc728e63e499a90ca4ff5763d9fb2&ei=23

Clearly we need a court case from an organisation, like Palestine Action, to challenge these sales to see if they are legal or not.

Where were they when we were loading the bombs onto Saudi planes to murder Yemeni children? Palestinians obviously much better at the PR.

OldKingCole

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

Better to say nothing and be thought a fool ……. applies, I think!

And good morning everyone. Bit cloudy here.

MarqueeMark

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

squareroot2 said:

Are the judges are possibly overstepping the mark when they interfere in political decisions.

In America judges are political appointees. That's their system, and one that MAGA Republicans have enthusiastically used for their own agenda.

Sauce for the goose and all that.

Florida judges in trouble with DeSantis for allowing voters a say on abortion.

Also in Nebraska the Trumpites trying to change the electoral college setup to nab a useful single electoral college vote from Biden.

If they do, Maine can retaliate and negate the effect.

Foxy

malcolmg said:

Taz said:

Three former Supreme Court justices are among over 600 lawyers and academics who have signed a 17-page letter to warn the present situation in Gaza is "catastrophic".

The government has been facing growing calls to suspend arms exports to Israel after three British aid workers were killed in an airstrike.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-is-breaching-international-law-by-continuing-to-arm-israel-sunak-warned/ar-BB1l2eRT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e45fc728e63e499a90ca4ff5763d9fb2&ei=23

Clearly we need a court case from an organisation, like Palestine Action, to challenge these sales to see if they are legal or not.

Where were they when we were loading the bombs onto Saudi planes to murder Yemeni children? Palestinians obviously much better at the PR.

CAAT has been campaigning against Arms sales to Saudi for this reason for some years. Feel free to help.

https://caat.org.uk/homepage/stop-arming-saudi-arabia/

noneoftheabove

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

squareroot2 said:

Are the judges are possibly overstepping the mark when they interfere in political decisions.

In America judges are political appointees. That's their system, and one that MAGA Republicans have enthusiastically used for their own agenda.

Sauce for the goose and all that.

Florida judges in trouble with DeSantis for allowing voters a say on abortion.

Also in Nebraska the Trumpites trying to change the electoral college setup to nab a useful single electoral college vote from Biden.

If they do, Maine can retaliate and negate the effect.

Probably not in time even if they wanted to, but the Nebraska effort also likely to fail against the clock.

MarqueeMark

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

Taz

malcolmg said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Nutter

I never cease to be amazed at the abilities of politicians and some political anoraks to find people who just happen to share or chime with their particular worldview. It is a great gidt.

Carnyx

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

Taz said:

Three former Supreme Court justices are among over 600 lawyers and academics who have signed a 17-page letter to warn the present situation in Gaza is "catastrophic".

The government has been facing growing calls to suspend arms exports to Israel after three British aid workers were killed in an airstrike.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-is-breaching-international-law-by-continuing-to-arm-israel-sunak-warned/ar-BB1l2eRT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e45fc728e63e499a90ca4ff5763d9fb2&ei=23

Clearly we need a court case from an organisation, like Palestine Action, to challenge these sales to see if they are legal or not.

Where were they when we were loading the bombs onto Saudi planes to murder Yemeni children? Palestinians obviously much better at the PR.

CAAT has been campaigning against Arms sales to Saudi for this reason for some years. Feel free to help.

https://caat.org.uk/homepage/stop-arming-saudi-arabia/

The Religious Society of Friends in Britain, aka Quakers, as well. I recall seeing a poster of theirs in Edinburgh years back.

https://www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-events/news/saudi-arabia-arms-sales-unlawful

Taz

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

Taz said:

Three former Supreme Court justices are among over 600 lawyers and academics who have signed a 17-page letter to warn the present situation in Gaza is "catastrophic".

The government has been facing growing calls to suspend arms exports to Israel after three British aid workers were killed in an airstrike.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-is-breaching-international-law-by-continuing-to-arm-israel-sunak-warned/ar-BB1l2eRT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e45fc728e63e499a90ca4ff5763d9fb2&ei=23

Clearly we need a court case from an organisation, like Palestine Action, to challenge these sales to see if they are legal or not.

Where were they when we were loading the bombs onto Saudi planes to murder Yemeni children? Palestinians obviously much better at the PR.

CAAT has been campaigning against Arms sales to Saudi for this reason for some years. Feel free to help.

https://caat.org.uk/homepage/stop-arming-saudi-arabia/

Further back than that direct action against arms sales to Indonesia to use on the oppressed of East Timor

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/campaigners-face-jail-for-raid-on-military-jet-1329683.html

JosiasJessop

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

And Brexit worked so well, didn't it?

(Not...)

Carnyx

OldKingCole said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

Better to say nothing and be thought a fool ……. applies, I think!

And good morning everyone. Bit cloudy here.

Good morning! Grey but it's stopped raining!

Foxy

Brexit, another success story.

BBC News - Food price fears as Brexit import charges revealed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68726852

LostPassword

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

That right there is why Biden will lose.

Voters who don't want to vote for Biden do not have to vote for Trump instead. They can not vote, or find a third-party candidate. It's what happened in 2016 when enough voters decided they didn't want to vote for Clinton, regardless of how awful Trump was.

I see quite a few people who struggle to draw a distinction between Trump and Biden now. To younger, lefty voters they're both ancient, senile white guys who will support Israel to commit genocide.

What about abortion you might say? Well, what has Biden done to provide access to abortion? People have suggested that he could have made abortion available in states where it is banned on Federal land, but that hasn't happened. In what way would a second Biden term improve access to abortion? These voters need convincing, and they aren't being offered anything at all.

Biden in 2024 is a much weaker candidate than in 2020. Do we really think there are enough voters who thought Trump was good enough to vote for in 2020 who will have finally come to their senses in 2024?

ydoethur

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Surprised to find they are to your sexual taste, if I'm honest, but there we are.

Mexicanpete

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

Huh?

I am as bigoted as the next entitled white man, but I wasn't aware I needed to vote Leave to prove it.

LostPassword

@JosiasJessop - any more detail/news on the French Foreign Legion rumour you shared last night?

ydoethur

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

Huh?

I am as bigoted as the next entitled white man, but I wasn't aware I needed to vote Leave to prove it.

This shows you need unconscious bias training.

LostPassword

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

I am glad you and they had a good night. Yesterday evening we were dealing with a leaking fuel line. Not as much fun!

noneoftheabove

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

Huh?

I am as bigoted as the next entitled white man, but I wasn't aware I needed to vote Leave to prove it.

This shows you need unconscious bias training.

Pfff, not sure what is wrong with everyone, I am perfectly capable of being biased without the training.

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Surprised to find they are to your sexual taste, if I'm honest, but there we are.

Oncw you get the taste for big gammony cock youre hooked.

Mexicanpete

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

ydoethur

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Oddly, I agree with her.

I don't think what happened at Caversham was an error.

I think it was entirely deliberate.

Edit - in a grim way, it's amusing that she criticises Ruth Perry and school heads for not accepting criticism due to 'difficult situations' while utterly rejecting the same premise for herself.

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

Huh?

I am as bigoted as the next entitled white man, but I wasn't aware I needed to vote Leave to prove it.

This shows you need unconscious bias training.

My bias is fully conscious thank you very much!

malcolmg

I see it is going well for Useless, seemingly 3000 of the 4000 Hate Crime incidents lodged on the first day were for Humza Useless himself.

"A police source told The Scottish Sun the majority of these focused on the First Minister and the Harry Potter author. They added, however, that Mr Yousaf had received more complaints under the new act than Ms Rowling."

ydoethur

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Surprised to find they are to your sexual taste, if I'm honest, but there we are.

Oncw you get the taste for big gammony cock youre hooked.

*raises eyebrows*

That's more than I ever needed to know about your sex life, Field Marshal...

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Oddly, I agree with her.

I don't think what happened at Carversham was an error.

I think it was entirely deliberate.

Edit - in a grim way, it's amusing that she criticises Ruth Perry and school heads for not accepting criticism due to 'difficult situations' while utterly rejecting the same premise for herself.

How heartless, odious and dreadful can one human being be?

malcolmg

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

Better to say nothing and be thought a fool ……. applies, I think!

And good morning everyone. Bit cloudy here.

Good morning! Grey but it's stopped raining!

Sunny on west coast Carnyx

malcolmg

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

Taz said:

Three former Supreme Court justices are among over 600 lawyers and academics who have signed a 17-page letter to warn the present situation in Gaza is "catastrophic".

The government has been facing growing calls to suspend arms exports to Israel after three British aid workers were killed in an airstrike.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-is-breaching-international-law-by-continuing-to-arm-israel-sunak-warned/ar-BB1l2eRT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e45fc728e63e499a90ca4ff5763d9fb2&ei=23

Clearly we need a court case from an organisation, like Palestine Action, to challenge these sales to see if they are legal or not.

Where were they when we were loading the bombs onto Saudi planes to murder Yemeni children? Palestinians obviously much better at the PR.

CAAT has been campaigning against Arms sales to Saudi for this reason for some years. Feel free to help.

https://caat.org.uk/homepage/stop-arming-saudi-arabia/

No millions on the streets every week though, did the fools miss that one

ydoethur

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Oddly, I agree with her.

I don't think what happened at Carversham was an error.

I think it was entirely deliberate.

Edit - in a grim way, it's amusing that she criticises Ruth Perry and school heads for not accepting criticism due to 'difficult situations' while utterly rejecting the same premise for herself.

How heartless, odious and dreadful can one human being be?

Well, she put safeguarding risks into classrooms through simple lack of due diligence. She buggered up exams through a mixture of arrogance and ignorance. She introduced a new inspection system that was criticised by her own successor because it makes it harder for children to learn to read.

Ruth Perry's suicide was merely confirmation.

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Surprised to find they are to your sexual taste, if I'm honest, but there we are.

Oncw you get the taste for big gammony cock youre hooked.

*raises eyebrows*

That's more than I ever needed to know about your sex life, Field Marshal...

I like to spread joy wherever I go, I may hang around Surrey and pose as a Tory.

Nigelb

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

ydoethur

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Surprised to find they are to your sexual taste, if I'm honest, but there we are.

Oncw you get the taste for big gammony cock youre hooked.

*raises eyebrows*

That's more than I ever needed to know about your sex life, Field Marshal...

I like to spread joy wherever I go, I may hang around Surrey and pose as a Tory.

*raises eyebrows further*

And is Joy duly appreciative of your attentions?

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Surprised to find they are to your sexual taste, if I'm honest, but there we are.

Oncw you get the taste for big gammony cock youre hooked.

*raises eyebrows*

That's more than I ever needed to know about your sex life, Field Marshal...

I like to spread joy wherever I go, I may hang around Surrey and pose as a Tory.

*raises eyebrows further*

And is Joy duly appreciative of your attentions?

Depends if shes been to see Madame Butterfly or not

Foxy

malcolmg said:

I see it is going well for Useless, seemingly 3000 of the 4000 Hate Crime incidents lodged on the first day were for Humza Useless himself.

"A police source told The Scottish Sun the majority of these focused on the First Minister and the Harry Potter author. They added, however, that Mr Yousaf had received more complaints under the new act than Ms Rowling."

This is a few years old from BBC Scotland but very prophetic.

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGemFQ6nq/

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Oddly, I agree with her.

I don't think what happened at Carversham was an error.

I think it was entirely deliberate.

Edit - in a grim way, it's amusing that she criticises Ruth Perry and school heads for not accepting criticism due to 'difficult situations' while utterly rejecting the same premise for herself.

How heartless, odious and dreadful can one human being be?

Well, she put safeguarding risks into classrooms through simple lack of due diligence. She buggered up exams through a mixture of arrogance and ignorance. She introduced a new inspection system that was criticised by her own successor because it makes it harder for children to learn to read.

Ruth Perry's suicide was merely confirmation.

I suspect in the deepest recesses of her mind's eye she might opine that the Ruth Perry outcome confirmed she was right all along, such is the absence of self-awareness.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Oddly, I agree with her.

I don't think what happened at Caversham was an error.

I think it was entirely deliberate.

Edit - in a grim way, it's amusing that she criticises Ruth Perry and school heads for not accepting criticism due to 'difficult situations' while utterly rejecting the same premise for herself.

That's what struck me.

The utter incapacity even to contemplate error is hers. I've come across Heads with a similar attitude - but Ruth Perry, very obviously, was not one of them.

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

kjh

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

Huh?

I am as bigoted as the next entitled white man, but I wasn't aware I needed to vote Leave to prove it.

This shows you need unconscious bias training.

I know I'm biased when conscious, but I think I'm pretty harmless when unconscious. At least my wife hasn't reported me coming out with racist and homophobic comments while snoring.

Stuartinromford

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Mexicanpete said:

One for @ydoethur

My main understanding that Amanda Spielman appears to be a bitch-troll from Hell has come largely from @ydoethur and his posts.

The Guardian has now confirmed this.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/apr/02/former-ofsted-chief-says-ruth-perry-inspection-was-error-free

Oddly, I agree with her.

I don't think what happened at Carversham was an error.

I think it was entirely deliberate.

Edit - in a grim way, it's amusing that she criticises Ruth Perry and school heads for not accepting criticism due to 'difficult situations' while utterly rejecting the same premise for herself.

How heartless, odious and dreadful can one human being be?

To be a little bit fair to Amanda Spielman, it's something of an occupational hazard. If you have the power to be heartless (and Ofsted does) and a narrative that heartlessness is in the greater good (again, as Ofsted does) the role will attract and bring out the worst in a certain kind of person. AS just brought the incompetence born of ignorance as a bonus.

Another front page story shows the same phenomenon, but I don't want to reawaken that particular Kraken.

Nigelb

squareroot2 said:

Are the judges are possibly overstepping the mark when they interfere in political decisions.

Possibly; possibly not.
You'll have to be a great deal more specific to get a serious answer.

Nigelb

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

Mince.

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

Mince.

succotash

Nigelb

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

squareroot2 said:

Are the judges are possibly overstepping the mark when they interfere in political decisions.

In America judges are political appointees. That's their system, and one that MAGA Republicans have enthusiastically used for their own agenda.

Sauce for the goose and all that.

Florida judges in trouble with DeSantis for allowing voters a say on abortion.

Also in Nebraska the Trumpites trying to change the electoral college setup to nab a useful single electoral college vote from Biden.

If they do, Maine can retaliate and negate the effect.

They failed.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Jessop, one might say both the rubbing of the Right's nose in diversity and the less than stellar approach taking to leaving are both examples that triumphalist arrogance is as unwise as it is unseemly, and that even when starkly disagreeing with someone, attempting to understand their perspective and (unless it's totally insane) respect it is more sensible than belittling the other side for being The Other Side.

Casino_Royale

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

That right there is why Biden will lose.

Voters who don't want to vote for Biden do not have to vote for Trump instead. They can not vote, or find a third-party candidate. It's what happened in 2016 when enough voters decided they didn't want to vote for Clinton, regardless of how awful Trump was.

I see quite a few people who struggle to draw a distinction between Trump and Biden now. To younger, lefty voters they're both ancient, senile white guys who will support Israel to commit genocide.

What about abortion you might say? Well, what has Biden done to provide access to abortion? People have suggested that he could have made abortion available in states where it is banned on Federal land, but that hasn't happened. In what way would a second Biden term improve access to abortion? These voters need convincing, and they aren't being offered anything at all.

Biden in 2024 is a much weaker candidate than in 2020. Do we really think there are enough voters who thought Trump was good enough to vote for in 2020 who will have finally come to their senses in 2024?

Hillary Clinton is demonstrating that she's learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

Biden is a better candidate than she was, but, that's not saying much.

Dura_Ace

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

The right are rubbing their own noses in it at the moment for some reason.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

That right there is why Biden will lose.

Voters who don't want to vote for Biden do not have to vote for Trump instead. They can not vote, or find a third-party candidate. It's what happened in 2016 when enough voters decided they didn't want to vote for Clinton, regardless of how awful Trump was.

I see quite a few people who struggle to draw a distinction between Trump and Biden now. To younger, lefty voters they're both ancient, senile white guys who will support Israel to commit genocide.

What about abortion you might say? Well, what has Biden done to provide access to abortion? People have suggested that he could have made abortion available in states where it is banned on Federal land, but that hasn't happened. In what way would a second Biden term improve access to abortion? These voters need convincing, and they aren't being offered anything at all.

Biden in 2024 is a much weaker candidate than in 2020. Do we really think there are enough voters who thought Trump was good enough to vote for in 2020 who will have finally come to their senses in 2024?

Hillary Clinton is demonstrating that she's learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

Biden is a better candidate than she was, but, that's not saying much.

The key is, he remains a better candidate than Trump.

But that, again, doesn't say much.

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

That right there is why Biden will lose.

Voters who don't want to vote for Biden do not have to vote for Trump instead. They can not vote, or find a third-party candidate. It's what happened in 2016 when enough voters decided they didn't want to vote for Clinton, regardless of how awful Trump was.

I see quite a few people who struggle to draw a distinction between Trump and Biden now. To younger, lefty voters they're both ancient, senile white guys who will support Israel to commit genocide.

What about abortion you might say? Well, what has Biden done to provide access to abortion? People have suggested that he could have made abortion available in states where it is banned on Federal land, but that hasn't happened. In what way would a second Biden term improve access to abortion? These voters need convincing, and they aren't being offered anything at all.

Biden in 2024 is a much weaker candidate than in 2020. Do we really think there are enough voters who thought Trump was good enough to vote for in 2020 who will have finally come to their senses in 2024?

Hillary Clinton is demonstrating that she's learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

Biden is a better candidate than she was, but, that's not saying much.

The key is, he remains a better candidate than Trump.

But that, again, doesn't say much.

He needs to be the better candidate in the right states.

The popular vote doesnt count for much.

Mexicanpete

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

I disagree with your prospectus re; Biden, but on the other hand you are cheering to the rafters this Government's unfunded tax/ni cuts.

rkrkrk

My theory is polls look bad for Biden because a lot of Dems don't want him as their candidate. But he is their candidate, and so in the end they'll pick him over Trump.

But it's a scary game of chicken we are playing here...

Nigelb

Foxy said:

Brexit, another success story.

BBC News - Food price fears as Brexit import charges revealed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68726852

That's more a failure of government to plan, rather than Brexit itself.

As is the impending closure of our last train manufacturer in Derby.

This period of Conservative government has been completely inept, whatever you think of their political choices.

malcolmg

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

I see it is going well for Useless, seemingly 3000 of the 4000 Hate Crime incidents lodged on the first day were for Humza Useless himself.

"A police source told The Scottish Sun the majority of these focused on the First Minister and the Harry Potter author. They added, however, that Mr Yousaf had received more complaints under the new act than Ms Rowling."

This is a few years old from BBC Scotland but very prophetic.

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGemFQ6nq/

Got it to a tee

bondegezou

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

That right there is why Biden will lose.

Voters who don't want to vote for Biden do not have to vote for Trump instead. They can not vote, or find a third-party candidate. It's what happened in 2016 when enough voters decided they didn't want to vote for Clinton, regardless of how awful Trump was.

I see quite a few people who struggle to draw a distinction between Trump and Biden now. To younger, lefty voters they're both ancient, senile white guys who will support Israel to commit genocide.

What about abortion you might say? Well, what has Biden done to provide access to abortion? People have suggested that he could have made abortion available in states where it is banned on Federal land, but that hasn't happened. In what way would a second Biden term improve access to abortion? These voters need convincing, and they aren't being offered anything at all.

Biden in 2024 is a much weaker candidate than in 2020. Do we really think there are enough voters who thought Trump was good enough to vote for in 2020 who will have finally come to their senses in 2024?

Providing abortion services on federal land has come up as an idea, but it doesn’t actually seem workable, and definitely not without a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate: https://theweek.com/feature/briefing/1014801/abortions-on-federal-lands

Biden has done a lot on abortion, see https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-continues-the-fight-for-reproductive-freedom/ , but without House/Senate control, there’re limits on what can be accomplished. The most useful thing perhaps Biden can do is wait for a Supreme Court vacancy.

Roe v Wade was overturned because of Trump. Trump would be far more supportive of Israel and of Bibi.

Alanbrooke

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

I disagree with your prospectus re; Biden, but on the other hand you are cheering to the rafters this Government's unfunded tax/ni cuts.

Whar nonsense. You wont find a post where Ive said that, its just the usual dullard post where you cant imagine anything beyond a two party system. Go get a life man.

bondegezou

malcolmg said:

I see it is going well for Useless, seemingly 3000 of the 4000 Hate Crime incidents lodged on the first day were for Humza Useless himself.

"A police source told The Scottish Sun the majority of these focused on the First Minister and the Harry Potter author. They added, however, that Mr Yousaf had received more complaints under the new act than Ms Rowling."

If the majority were for Yousaf and Rowling, but Yousaf got more, that only guarantees Yousaf got just over 25% of the complaints.

Malmesbury

Taz said:

malcolmg said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Nutter

I never cease to be amazed at the abilities of politicians and some political anoraks to find people who just happen to share or chime with their particular worldview. It is a great gidt.

I can't remember who I am supposed to hate. Can anyone help? I keep reverting to offering everyone cups of tea. I guess I am just not cut out for the modern world.

Benpointer

O/T No idea why the BBC is taking a sympathetic stance on this case of benefit fraud:

DWP take Cheshire woman's inheritance over supermarket job

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-68727007

I have no doubt that if the woman had just said: 'I made a genuine mistake, I can now pay you back the money I owe' there would have been no waste of everyone's time, clogging up the courts, etc.

FF43

Dura_Ace said:

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

And lovely to see so many non-binary, trans, gender queer people around London including on the staff at the Royal Opera House.

Screw the anti-woke gammons.

Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity worked so well last time.

We Brexited.

The right are rubbing their own noses in it at the moment for some reason.

We voted Leave to get more diversity.

Malmesbury

bondegezou said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see Hillary Clinton has lost none of her common touch:

"In a separate development, Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump despite winning the popular vote, told voters to “get over yourself” and vote for Biden instead of his challenger."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-polls-trump-biden-wisconsin-results-qs0m2r887

That right there is why Biden will lose.

Voters who don't want to vote for Biden do not have to vote for Trump instead. They can not vote, or find a third-party candidate. It's what happened in 2016 when enough voters decided they didn't want to vote for Clinton, regardless of how awful Trump was.

I see quite a few people who struggle to draw a distinction between Trump and Biden now. To younger, lefty voters they're both ancient, senile white guys who will support Israel to commit genocide.

What about abortion you might say? Well, what has Biden done to provide access to abortion? People have suggested that he could have made abortion available in states where it is banned on Federal land, but that hasn't happened. In what way would a second Biden term improve access to abortion? These voters need convincing, and they aren't being offered anything at all.

Biden in 2024 is a much weaker candidate than in 2020. Do we really think there are enough voters who thought Trump was good enough to vote for in 2020 who will have finally come to their senses in 2024?

Providing abortion services on federal land has come up as an idea, but it doesn’t actually seem workable, and definitely not without a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate: https://theweek.com/feature/briefing/1014801/abortions-on-federal-lands

Biden has done a lot on abortion, see https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-continues-the-fight-for-reproductive-freedom/ , but without House/Senate control, there’re limits on what can be accomplished. The most useful thing perhaps Biden can do is wait for a Supreme Court vacancy.

Roe v Wade was overturned because of Trump. Trump would be far more supportive of Israel and of Bibi.

Yup - all these hacks to try and get round Roe vs Wade being overturned running into a quagmire of law and precedent. See the "Native Reservations" idea - https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/26/us/tribal-lands-abortion-safe-havens-roe-cec/index.html

Most importantly, Biden can't spend Federal money on abortion, due to not having a super majority in the Senate.

Mexicanpete

...

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

I disagree with your prospectus re; Biden, but on the other hand you are cheering to the rafters this Government's unfunded tax/ni cuts.

Whar nonsense. You wont find a post where Ive said that, its just the usual dullard post where you cant imagine anything beyond a two party system. Go get a life man.

Affronted abuse at my partisanship from a fellow partisan.

Biden has been a way better President than Trump in pretty much every department.

Malmesbury

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

Mince.

That is a disgraceful slur. Please stop using "Mince" as an insult. Mince is a useful food product that can make a range of tasty, nutritious meals.

Especially vegan version mince.

Nigelb

.

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

I disagree with your prospectus re; Biden, but on the other hand you are cheering to the rafters this Government's unfunded tax/ni cuts.

Whar nonsense. You wont find a post where Ive said that, its just the usual dullard post where you cant imagine anything beyond a two party system. Go get a life man.

Still spreading joy.

TOPPING

None of us realised that when Nigel stood in front of that poster with all the markedly non-white FAMs the message was an entreaty to let them all in.

Brexiters must be delighted.

Carnyx

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

Mince.

That is a disgraceful slur. Please stop using "Mince" as an insult. Mince is a useful food product that can make a range of tasty, nutritious meals.

Especially vegan version mince.

Please stop, both of you. It only takes someone to mention spuds and neeps and I will be hungry all day.

Nigelb

The talented Mr Scott.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/apr/04/ripley-review-andrew-scott-is-absolutely-spellbinding

HYUFD

The Independent vote, much of which voted for Haley in the Republican primaries and which dislikes both Biden and Trump, will certainly be decisive in November.

The outcomes of Trump's criminal cases will also have an impact as much as abortion. Remember too while Independents and the median US voters wants to keep abortion legal up to a time limit evangelicals and conservative Roman Catholics, including some Hispanics, don't.

Opposition to abortion might help Trump and the GOP therefore if it drives up evangelical turnout in the South and Bible belt in particular

TOPPING

So, Gaza.

Just kidding - what's this furore I'm hearing about potatoes.

Theuniondivvie

malcolmg said:

I see it is going well for Useless, seemingly 3000 of the 4000 Hate Crime incidents lodged on the first day were for Humza Useless himself.

"A police source told The Scottish Sun the majority of these focused on the First Minister and the Harry Potter author. They added, however, that Mr Yousaf had received more complaints under the new act than Ms Rowling."

You’d think the morons would have checked if the Hate Crime legislation could be applied retrospectively (spoiler: it can’t), but they’ve obviously got lots of time, their own and others’, to waste.

Alanbrooke

Mexicanpete said:

...

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

I disagree with your prospectus re; Biden, but on the other hand you are cheering to the rafters this Government's unfunded tax/ni cuts.

Whar nonsense. You wont find a post where Ive said that, its just the usual dullard post where you cant imagine anything beyond a two party system. Go get a life man.

Affronted abuse at my partisanship from a fellow partisan.

Biden has been a way better President than Trump in pretty much every department.

Youre a party animal Im not, Ill leave you to letting others do your thinking for you.

As for Biden v Trump neither is particularly inspiring nor have they addressed the US problems. Both parties need a refresh and should start with candidates 20 years younger,

algarkirk

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Brexit, another success story.

BBC News - Food price fears as Brexit import charges revealed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68726852

That's more a failure of government to plan, rather than Brexit itself.

As is the impending closure of our last train manufacturer in Derby.

This period of Conservative government has been completely inept, whatever you think of their political choices.

This continuing saga arises out of two things. Well in the past now, but still biting hard is Cameron's failure to ensure that there were comprehensive government plans (confidential of course) for both possible outcomes of the referendum, to be implemented with Cameron himself taking responsibility for implementation. Failure to plan + resignation explain most of the resultant mess including 5 PMs (4+Sunak to come) departing in disarray.

The other is communication. The voter cuts quite a bit of slack for the realities of Brexit, Covid, Ukraine etc. But WRT the strategy for a post Brexit world, it remains impossible to articulate what 'making Brexit work' means for this government.

Sunil_Prasannan

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

Mince.

That is a disgraceful slur. Please stop using "Mince" as an insult. Mince is a useful food product that can make a range of tasty, nutritious meals.

Especially vegan version mince.

Please stop, both of you. It only takes someone to mention spuds and neeps and I will be hungry all day.

You need to pay the Maris Piper!

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

.

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

.

Taz said:

DavidL said:

What we have been seeing on RCP is a gradual narrowing of the lead held by Trump that reflected that unpopularity of Biden. Their "average" , which has a number of problems, shows a Trump lead that has shrunk from about 5% to 0.8% at the moment. Furthermore, if you look at the most recent polls, the trend looks set to continue and Biden will have a popular vote lead in the next week or so.

I agree with @TSE that this narrowing reflects independents trending towards Biden. I think that Trump's many court cases and issues are driving that and we may well see that trend increase once his first trial starts on 15th April. We are increasingly unlikely to see the other trials before November as the procedural wrangling and incidental appeals go on but public perception of them will increase over time.

I also think Biden has a lot to sell in terms of his economic record, abortion and acknowledgement of the rule of law. The American media is far more polarised than ours and the preponderance has really failed to recognise that the US has done very well over Biden's term. On the other hand, like most western governments, he has a problem with immigration.

Biden will have to deal,with the debt as well. Sooner or later.

You mean the U.S. will.
Biden at least has an economic strategy. Trump just wants tax cuts for the rich.

LOL

Biden is just bankrupting the states and you call it a strategy, Xi and Vlad should just buy some popcorn.

I disagree with your prospectus re; Biden, but on the other hand you are cheering to the rafters this Government's unfunded tax/ni cuts.

Whar nonsense. You wont find a post where Ive said that, its just the usual dullard post where you cant imagine anything beyond a two party system. Go get a life man.

Still spreading joy.

As ever and why not its a grey day and souls need uplifting.

MattW

Thank-you for the header, @TSE (even with Garfield Slippers and a Noel Coward silk dressing gown).

Interesting numbers, that imo will likely only move against Trump.

I'm not sure that those significant numbers of Republicans who did not support Trump amongst the voters in Primaries are showing in these numbers? Why not?

Malmesbury

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Brexit, another success story.

BBC News - Food price fears as Brexit import charges revealed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68726852

That's more a failure of government to plan, rather than Brexit itself.

As is the impending closure of our last train manufacturer in Derby.

This period of Conservative government has been completely inept, whatever you think of their political choices.

Talking of trains - was watching a Portillo train thing, and he was visiting Spain. They are putting into service trams with no overhead wires. Battery power, with ground contact charging at stops. This answers problems about historic views, trees and the cost of maintenance.

The later makes them cheaper to install and run, just by itself (battery costs are less than overhead wires).