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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2013 locals so far: the John Curtice verdict
Prof John Curtice: UKIP “greatest threat to established party system since WWW2″ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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More generally, the extraordinary rise of UKIP is a spectacular reminder of just how poorly served the majority of voters in this country are by FPTP.
"Here lies David Cameron, the man who gave us perpetual LibDems in Govt.
Thanks Dave. Thanks a f*cking bunch...."
Put it down to a failure of those Trade Union Master Tacticians who put Ed Miliband in place.
Hur hur hur.....
YouGov
Labour voters only
Lead by people of real ability:
Cons: 2%
LAB: 45%
LD: 1%
None of them: 40%
DK: 13%
Its leaders are prepared to take tough and
unpopular decisions
Cons: 32%
LAB: 30%
LD: 2%
None of them: 23%
DK: 12%
"A mother and two daughters also celebrated wins for UKIP.
Sue Ransome, 61, and her daughters Felicity and Elizabeth Ransome, 27 and 26, gained three seats in Boston."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-22368849
Were you voting yesterday ?
I just cannot see how anyone can support it now except for clearly self-interested reasons. It surprises me that UKIP does not make more of this. Under almost any other electoral system, it would currently be heading towards significant representation in the next Parliament and would already have a big stake in local government.
But it's not just the Tories, of course. There are a pile of self-serving anti-democratic, Hodgesian Labour people too. Yesterday I very nearly voted LibDem. The way I am feeling this morning, I think I probably will in 2015.
Can anybody save me some time and just confirm that UKIP are now near certain to score over 100 Seats?
Just how high do we think they will go?
So - the story so far
- UKIP is a threat to the Tories
- And we'll no later today whether UKIP is a threat to both the Tories and Labour, with results coming in from the Midlands.
Is that an OK summary?
It's going to be an interesting day. I suspect I won't get much work done.
Now watch for the Tory establishment backlash: they will turn their ire on UKIP like nothing before with smears, innuendos and back-stabs. But it's too late. The ship sailed and is now just a distant spiral on the horizon. You can't piss off your core supporters in the way Cameron has and get away with it.
I'm particularly looking forward to the Buckinghamshire results: the true blue county of my birth where the Conservatives have decided to railroad HS2.
Rolls eyes.....
POEDWAS.
PONCWAS.
POUKGWAS.
That does not close the door on other forms of electoral reform, but the AV referendum would make it difficult to do without a referendum.
A
LOL
Hard to believe this could get any more hilarious, but it looks like it will.
But if the blues want to have a chance at 2015 they'll need to shake up their front bench. In some respects it's already too late since the white van voters quite like UKIP and Cameron has boxed himself in to a corner with them.
Bingo.
This is a working class non-affluent county which has in the last decade experiencd mass immigration.
I think we're seeing three rough voting blocks forming:
Labour - public sector + non-white
Conservative - middle class private sector
UKIP - working class private sector
The LibDems don't have a voting block only personal votes, tactical votes and heritage votes.
The UKIP block is the one suffering from globalised capitalism and metropolitan bigotry. While these continue - and they will for the rest of the decade at least - UKIP will continue to grow stronger.
The Labour and Conservative voting blocks are shielded from the effects of globalisation and sometimes benefit from it or support it.
Which is why the Labour and Conservative leaderships underestimated the UKIP threat and now struggle to deal with it.
That'll be the worst being over. Good call Clegg.
How you work out a national equivalent for UKIP is very hard to say. Who is to say that they will do worse in the areas not voting? There is no real record for comparison and the result in SS rather suggests not as did the demographic split OGH put up yesterday.
In Scotland 4 party politics has led to a variety of AV votes. FPTP becomes very difficult to defend with the winner still in the 20s. It really depends on whether UKIP are here to stay. If they deliver a majority Labour government in 2015 there will be ructions on the right.
well possibly. But I think I'd first like to see how UKIP are faring in the North and in cities. If UKIP make inroads into the "taken for granted" Labour block vote in Mrs Duffy country then it's game on, but that will be a hard shift. I'd simply say the biggest challenge for UKIP now is not to get carried away on activist euphoria, but to knuckle down and cost out some policies since everyone - yes believe or not even blank sheet Ed - will be accusing you of not really having anything serious to say. And then when you announce a policy they'll either try to tear it apart or steal it.
I see Farageddon is upon us. Will the established order survive the UKIPalypse?
I had to double-check one of those tweets. 14% seemed ok to me (it's 1.4%, of course).
26% on average in seats contested is pretty substantial, and UKIP won't fade for the euros. Even when they were definitely a league below they performed well in those.
What happens if Poujade had a point ? Are you saying 10-15% of the population should have no right to have their views represented because you don't like what they say ?
Weirdly, Labour are +30 but UKIP are +42. Unweirdly, the Conservatives are losing many seats (66) and the Lib Dems are also down (15).
The Greens and Others have made some gains, making up the difference.
Thanks SeanF.
My interest in this is mainly from a betting viewpoint, but I am also enjoying a frisson of pleasure at the discomfiture of the main Parties.
UKIPalypse :-)
have you copyright on that ?
Balls and the economic realities of our welfare state will destroy any perceived gain Redard gets from 'winning by default'. He'll become the least popular PM in modern times.
The election of 2017 will be the interesting one - where the UK gets to decide if it is really only ever going to be managing decline or seeking once again to compete and thrive.
I hope the right can sort itself out and find a charismatic conviction driven leader to make the changes we need.
Otherwise we're going to stop circling the bowl and just get flushed right on down into an angry, collectivist, violent, inward looking, poor mess. A 'has-been' country.
Lord how I wish the Labour Party had never existed and that Dave had a pair.
The new kids on the block sound attractive.
The voters are blowing an exceptionally large raspberry at the Big Three = I wonder what those fellows in Brussels are making of this massive shift in *real votes*
(wish I knew how to edit posts on Vanilla as my typing sucks)
Edited extra bit: it's a shame all the likes and agrees have gone.
Obviously, UKIP will gain most from the Conservatives, because the latter are defending two thirds of the seats (although they've gained from Lib Dems and Greens). But, they also seem to be taking the votes that Labour needs to recover in the South. Labour's performance in Herts and Essex was piss-poor.
Combining that with SeanT's B Dortmund tip which I have laid off on Betfair now (Bayern will win I think) and recent betting has been good !
It looks like UKIP did very well among people and areas which were Labour in 2005 and Conservative in 2010.
Now if Labour is able to hold its ex-LibDem support it can win elections but its position isn't as good as many think - Labour is mostly piling up votes in safe urban constituencies.
The Conservatives though have no chance of winning a majority without the UKIP voters it needs.
And the Conservatives can't get those with the Cameroons in control.
(Both areas are heavily populated by emigrants from the East End.)
Good result for Nick Clegg personally in Sheffield Hallam council by-election: Lib Dems hold seat with 48%, 4.3% swing away from Labour.
That's a wise line for your spinners to take today Clegg. On just how much of an asset you personally are to the lib dems as your councillors and activist base gets hammered yet again.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE#gid=0
Enjoy!
I wonder if that depends on the overlap of White Van Man areas and seats Labour need to win back in 2015.
It looks like you will be owing me a fiver, but somehow I have the impression that won't upset you one little bit.
They're making a condescension.
I assume its a variation of racist or fruitcake.
Earlier I didn't say whether I'm for or against FPTP one way or the other, but I'm against - I think UKIP voters have as much right to be represented as anyone else, and they should get Westminster seats in proportion to their votes.
Indeed, SeanF.
Many more of my relatives moved to Essex than to Hertfordshire.
The findings of an NHS staff survey also show that a third of workers have been ill with stress in the past year.
But it also found staff are highly dedicated, with more than four in five saying they would be willing "to go the extra mile" for the organisation.
Health Minister Mark Drakeford said the survey showed a "mixed" picture.
"It isn't satisfactory that just over half of people working in our NHS positively think that what they provide would be good for somebody in their family," he said.
Mr Drakeford said some staff felt under strain and that the survey showed a "disconnect" between managers and employees on the front line. He was also concerned about scepticism among staff that their views will be acted on.
The survey is the first to be carried out in six years with 22,392 staff working in the Welsh NHS filling it out, representing 27% of the workforce.
It found 64% of NHS staff who responded said they were satisfied with their current job but fewer than half would recommend the NHS as an place to work.....
Work related stress was highest amongst ambulance technicians (65%), paramedics (62%) and ambulance control staff (45%).
The survey responses also suggested that issues of bullying harassment and violence affected a small but notable minority of health service staff.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-22390887
It's clear that Farage now has some serious thinking to do as well, if he wants to make UKIP a real contender, with costed policies and a bigger media presence. You only ever see him or Nuttall in the limelight, so UKIP should get together a sort of "shadow" front bench, rather than the one or two man show it is now.
I am trying to evolve a spreadsheet looking to 2015, that takes into account the rise of UKIP and the skewed nature of the political scene over GB. Will let you have a preview for comment when completed.
Basically saying that people who go around calling UKIP names are missing the point: the political classes need to take them, and the people who voted for them, seriously.
I am not a UKIP supporter, but I totally agree.
7 Conservative
7 Labour
2 LibDem
Splitting further:
1/10 Lincoln wards which were Labour in 2005 is now UKIP
6/11 non-Lincoln wards which were Labour in 2005 is now UKIP
LibDem assault beaten back in both seats but yellow peril sweep much of nearby St. Albans.
Have these latter day Hanovarian Whigs no shame. Will they take no account of the desperate plight of an impoverished Scottish Jacobite noble ?!?
I expect big UKIP gains in Kent and possibly 5 in Surrey