The Cons simply reversing a foolish Labour policy.
I disagree. There are only a few hundred Afghan interpreters, so will not make much difference to overall migration. They speak very good English. They have been working closely with Britons. They chose to side with forces of democracy and progress. And they have an emotional connection to this country, having risked their lives for our boys. Like the Gurkhas, I think we should let them stay.
We've fixed your country but it's still rubbish - so come live with us.
Exactly the sort of pander to the public sector special cases that Ukip was railling against no ?
I think this is an entirely correct thing for an Englishman to do... the interpreter has taken our side over the Taliban and woiuld be in mortal danger for his life were he to stay in Afghanistan. What more does someone have to do to deserve asylum? We should give him a cushy job somewhere as soon as he arrives
Why brain drain the country ? These chaps could be jolly useful putting the country back on its feet - it's a big place - I'm sure they could move to another town where they aren't recognised.
If it were down to me, he should be given the option to stay put if he likes but welcomed with open arms if he want to live here.
He was a translator - not a secret agent who infiltrated Osama's cave. What next - taxi drivers, cooks and cleaners ?
I havent looked into it too deeply, but it seems to me that anyone who helps us out in a war against their own country should be entitled to asylum. I dont mind if you disagree, each to their own.
1113: With nine results through so far in Bristol, the Liberal Democrats have lost six seats. The Greens and Conservatives have taken two of them, and Labour and an independent candidate one each. The full results for the city council are expected by about 15:00 BST.
But Tunbridge Wells is POSH. And UKIP are meant to be the party of the villeins surfs and minor yeomen. Yet they are also reeling in the affluent middle classes?
The Conservative councillors in Tunbridge Wells have been in rather a chaotic state for several years. There have been some big bust-ups and much controversy over development and over traffic schemes. Also, not all of Tunbridge Wells is elegant Decimus Burton houses - it's actually quite a mixture. There has been a substantial BNP vote in some wards in recent elections.
Exciting day of election results so far: Lab, Cons, Greens and Independent all taking seats formerly held by Lib Dems http://www.bristol.gov.uk/elections
1116: Lib Dem Baroness Kramer says her party has had a "mixed bag". It is focusing on its "heartlands and strongholds" and has "areas of real strength", she adds
No UKIP, Labour, Tory, Green or Independent tanks in Bristol...
Mr. D, thanks for explaining the change figures, which were very out of whack and were confusing me a shade.
Yeah, I made the spreadsheet in 10 mins, so didn't have time to implement a more proper solution.. now I have no time to change it due to ongoing declarations!
Yes - its all Gt Yarmouth - what's interesting is that Kippers split the vote last time and IIRC the Tories lost control to Labour - now Kippers are just bypassing Labour and winning themselves.
I don't know how accurate it can be but UKIP is probably not taking many Labour 2010 voters....but they are taking former Lab voters who switched to Con in 2006-10 and are bypassing them now
I think that is exactly right - and it has to worry Labour. They need those voters back, to get a majority.
Probably not - as long as their 2010 support holds they should be able to squeak it with just lefty LDs moving to them and a couple of percent of Tories moving to UKIP.
What should scare them is if it turns out that people who voted for Gordon Brown are now going for UKIP (or Con or anyone else) in any numbers.
Mr. D, it's an excellent creation, so no need to try and apologise.
Mr. Eagles, the Metelli are less well-known than perhaps they ought to be. They dominated Roman politics, but did so in the interval between the Punic Wars and the Late Republic, which is less well-known than the periods before and after.
Disappointment for UKIP in the East Midlands where they have yet to score in Derbyshire after the first 20 results have been declared - they were hoping for decent gains in this area.
What I take from these results at the moment is that the country is still in a VERY anti-politics/anti establishment mood and seems to have drifted towards the Right since 2010.
So;
1. An "anti-establishment" mood means all the main parties are in trouble. Obviously the party full of Etonians is in the biggest trouble.
2. The country is still in no mood to swing decisively towards one political party, which means another hung parliament looks certain in 2015.
3. The biggest poser from these results is probably for Labour, because Ed Miliband appears to think he is a left wing version of Mrs Thatcher and that he will move the UK back to the kind of pure Socialism not seen since the 1970's. Yet, these results seem to imply he is setting himself against the prevailing political wind - Can't end well for him.
4. Due to 1 and 3 if the Tories had a populist leadership that could connect with aspirational and working class voters while keeping the Shires on board 2015 would be VERY winnable, IMO. Alas they are stuck with Cameron and Osborne.
Lib Dem Baroness Kramer says her party has had a "mixed bag".
As in "I've just seen someone depositing a mixed bag packed with nails and homemade explosives in a litter bin"
Unless they start getting some far better results Farron, Hughes, Vince and chums might just consider making some discreet phone calls to friendly journos making it known how different things could be under a different leader later on. More in sadness than anger of course.
I am feeling rather smug about my UKIP East/West prediction yesterday. The Vikings just love UKIP!
It was a very smart observation. It's also worth noting that if the Tories are to win a majority in 2015, the relevant marginals are preponderantly in the west.
I am feeling rather smug about my UKIP East/West prediction yesterday. The Vikings just love UKIP!
The descendants of Cromwell's New Model Army.
I really do think there may be at least something of a divide, with the A5 and the Pennines the vague boundary.
Your smugness is well justified.
Do you think we're still on course for a hung parliament in 2015?
There's nothing happening today that indicates otherwise. I guess the one thing that is unknown is UKIP drift back. If they are taking votes from Labour and Tory, which side is more likely to revert to the mothership in 2015, if at all?
Disappointment for UKIP in the East Midlands where they have yet to score in Derbyshire after the first 20 results have been declared - they were hoping for decent gains in this area.
Must say I expected them to do slightly better here. The Lib Dems have even held 2 seats in the High Peak ! Problem is for UKIP is they are starting pretty much from zero here, also I didn't recieve a single leaflet other than Labour..
I am feeling rather smug about my UKIP East/West prediction yesterday. The Vikings just love UKIP!
The descendants of Cromwell's New Model Army.
I really do think there may be at least something of a divide, with the A5 and the Pennines the vague boundary.
Your smugness is well justified.
Do you think we're still on course for a hung parliament in 2015?
There's nothing happening today that indicates otherwise. I guess the one thing that is unknown is UKIP drift back. If they are taking votes from Labour and Tory, which side is more likely to revert to the mothership in 2015, if at all?
From the YouGov polling for the Times today on UKIP switchers,
"It means that UKIP’s surge is definitely hurting the Conservatives now but, by the same token, if it can be reversed by the time of the general election it could mean that much or all of Labour’s opinion poll lead could be washed away. UKIP’s voters — who tend to be older but only slightly more likely to be male than female — much prefer Mr Cameron to Ed Miliband."
"What is even funnier is the confusion it is causing the leaders of the established political class. They are already emerging for a round of local election bingo, with the key phrases drawn from the standard issue manual used by all the major parties. "We hear what people are saying… people want to make a protest… they want us to get on with the job… people have very real concerns… it's mid-term… we'll be reflecting." But this time, when they mouth the words, they look as though they know their platitudes have been rumbled.
The distress the voter rebellion causes the bigger parties does seem to be an important part of the appeal of Ukip. Voting for Farage is an entertaining way of giving the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems two fingers. Of course the longer-term implications are not necessarily funny. This is a country, not a comedy club. But large numbers of voters are so disenchanted that they see no possibility of an answer in the old parties. They are having a lot of fun trying to blow up the system."
I think the mood is much more unrealistic and wishful. Main stream politicians aren';t listening to or being honest with voters and so a pie in the sky party like UKIP gets loads of votes.
Does someone want to volunteer to keep an eye on the shropshire results and periodically post the latest results (i.e. current party standings)? It does involve counting on a map, as there is no table.
I am feeling rather smug about my UKIP East/West prediction yesterday. The Vikings just love UKIP!
The descendants of Cromwell's New Model Army.
I really do think there may be at least something of a divide, with the A5 and the Pennines the vague boundary.
Your smugness is well justified.
Do you think we're still on course for a hung parliament in 2015?
There's nothing happening today that indicates otherwise. I guess the one thing that is unknown is UKIP drift back. If they are taking votes from Labour and Tory, which side is more likely to revert to the mothership in 2015, if at all?
It is remarkable how little impact the results have had so far on the betting markets.
The value has been in the NOM price for a long time and should be even better now.
You can lay Tory Overall Majority [5.3 Betfair] till the cows come home. Sorry, Blue fans, it just ain't gonna happen.
I am feeling rather smug about my UKIP East/West prediction yesterday. The Vikings just love UKIP!
Are you sure it's not just a matter of who's already counted? You get these timezone issues a lot with the US races, and Norfolk and Lincolnshire must be a few hours ahead of GMT.
ATTLEBOROUGH: Alec Byrne (Conservative) HOLD BOWTHORPE: Mike Sands (Labour) GAIN from Conservative BREYDON: Alan Grey (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives CLENCHWARTON & KING’S LYNN SOUTH: Alex Kemp (Labour) HOLD CROME: George Nobbs (Labour) HOLD DEREHAM NORTH: William Richmond (Conservative) HOLD DEREHAM SOUTH: Paul Gilmour (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives EAST FLEGG: Jonathon Childs (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives ELMHAM AND MATTISHALL: Bill Borrett (Conservative) HOLD GORLESTON ST ANDREWS: Matthew Smith (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives GUILTCROSS: Stephen Askew (Conservative) HOLD KING’S LYNN NORTH & CENTRAL: David Collis (Lab) GAIN from Conservatives LOTHINGLAND: Colin Aldred (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives MAGDALEN: Coleen Walker (Labour) HOLD MILE CROSS: Deborah Gihawi (Labour) GAIN from Greens NECTON AND LAUNDITCH: Mark Kiddle-Morris (Conservative) HOLD WENSUM: Elizabeth Morgan (Greens) HOLD WEST FLEGG: Michael Carttiss (Conservative) HOLD YARMOUTH NELSON & SOUTHTOWN: Rex Parkinson-Hare (UKIP) HOLD YARMOUTH NORTH & CENTRAL: Michael Castle (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
I would never vote UKIP myself, but I have to say this is one of the most exciting days I can remember in British politics since 1997. UKIP voters must be on cloud nine - if they allow themslves such extravagances.
My prediction is that all three main parties will say that they are listening and that all three will respond in the wrong way.
It's a very interesting dilemma for Labour. UKIP may well be harming them, but even with UKIP as a pain free option for voters, the party is still picking up support. That may indicate a pretty solid core, or it may indicate the final fling of people giving the party the benefit of the doubt one last time (which was my voting stance yesterday). Either way, the prospects of a meaningful Labour majority in 2015 look very distant.
All in all, absolutely fascinating. How on earth am I going to get any work done today?
Yes - its all Gt Yarmouth - what's interesting is that Kippers split the vote last time and IIRC the Tories lost control to Labour - now Kippers are just bypassing Labour and winning themselves.
And those Great Yarmouth seats are ones that Labour held in 2005.
"Glossop & Charlesworth" might be an interesting seat in Derbyshire, its one of those double vote seats. But interetingly UKIP only have 1 candidate as opposed to other parties that have 2. SO if there is vote splitting it may well benefit them. "George David Wharmby" (CON) looks to have a big majority from old boundaries though...
Let's hope the upshot of UKIP winning 200 council seats is that the supremely silly and complacent Ken Clarke is finally put out of pasture.
For saying something milder than Cammie did about the Kippers?
Somewhat unlikely.
Clarke is there to fool gullible Eurosceptics into thinking Cammie is more Eurosceptic than he actually is. The truth of course is that he and Clarke both favour staying IN Europe and that is the only dividing line that really matters now. Particularly to the kippers.
"UKIP are, tweeted the Telegraph's Chris Deerin, "a rejection of a certain way of doing politics by a certain type of politics". So let's change it - and campaigning to quit the EU should only be part of it."
"According to UKFI, which manages the government's stakes in the banks, the price actually paid by the Treasury for its 82% stake was 502p per share.
However the valuation in the government's books is 407p per share - a fairly chunky difference.
That lower "book" value captures a loss that the government has already absorbed on the investment: the loss is the difference between what the government paid for the shares and the market price of RBS on the days the then Chancellor, Alistair Darling, actually handed over the money for the shares."
"Most investment purists would see the correct number as 502p.
If the chancellor were to ape the often cynical behaviour of big companies when faced with similar accounting dilemmas, he would probably choose the lowest possible price - of 407p.
So politics being what it is, I suspect he will claim success if he can get 440p.
All of which may seem a bit academic right now, with RBS shares massively underwater, as they say, at 290p."
"Or to put it another way, the notional loss for taxpayers today on their 82% stake in RBS is a maximum of £20bn and well over £10bn on any valuation."
What I take from these results at the moment is that the country is still in a VERY anti-politics/anti establishment mood and seems to have drifted towards the Right since 2010.
So;
1. An "anti-establishment" mood means all the main parties are in trouble. Obviously the party full of Etonians is in the biggest trouble.
2. The country is still in no mood to swing decisively towards one political party, which means another hung parliament looks certain in 2015.
3. The biggest poser from these results is probably for Labour, because Ed Miliband appears to think he is a left wing version of Mrs Thatcher and that he will move the UK back to the kind of pure Socialism not seen since the 1970's. Yet, these results seem to imply he is setting himself against the prevailing political wind - Can't end well for him.
4. Due to 1 and 3 if the Tories had a populist leadership that could connect with aspirational and working class voters while keeping the Shires on board 2015 would be VERY winnable, IMO. Alas they are stuck with Cameron and Osborne.
I am feeling rather smug about my UKIP East/West prediction yesterday. The Vikings just love UKIP!
Are you sure it's not just a matter of who's already counted? You get these timezone issues a lot with the US races, and Norfolk and Lincolnshire must be a few hours ahead of GMT.
No, Southam is right. There is something about eastern England - as I noted very late last night - which breeds insurgence. The Peasants Revolt, the Civil War, and Margaret Thatcher were all forged in eastern England - Essex, Lincs, etc.
Intersting result in Tunbridge Wells - Tories easily hold onto posh Tunbridge Wells South with 1,926. Ukip second with 1,109 but lose C2 D area Tunbridge Wells East 1386 UKIP 1005 Tory.
Are UKIP surging because they are more likely to stop a few hundred thousand Bulgars and Romanians from coming here than the other parties?
I can;t believe that. What worries me about this is that when some UKIP supporters talk about 'immigration' they are talking about people who are already here, and perfectly legitimately.
What worries me about this is that when some UKIP supporters talk about 'immigration' they are talking about people who are already here, and perfectly legitimately.
What does it matter? UKIP can no more do anything about those of us immigrants who are already here legally than they can about Bulgarians and Romanians who might come next year.
What worries me about this is that when some UKIP sup0porters talk about 'immigration' they are talking about people who are already here, and perfectly legitimately.
What does it matter? UKIP can no more do anything about those of us immigrants who are already here legally than they can about Bulgarians and Romanians who might come next year.
Guess what - people are more racist than the media would have us believe...
UKIP can no more do anything about those of us immigrants who are already here legally than they can about Bulgarians and Romanians who might come next year.
I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.
I'm assuming that that means you think they'll be here to stay, not personally being an expert in STDs. If so, I'm far from convinced that it's necessarily the case and depends very much on how things pan out.
UKIP are performing spectacularly well not because of years of toil on the ground but because of a national swing based party on what the national party is, and to a greater extent, on what they're not. This is more akin to the Greens in 1989 rather than the slow but relentless rise of the Liberals or SNP. At the moment.
The question is the extent to which UKIP can capitalise on their gains. How well will their councillors perform? They haven't nursed their seats to victory and will have to learn on the job how to do so if they want to keep them based on something other than the vicissitudes of national politics.
For the time being - until 2015 at least - UKIP are a fixture. I can't see Labour winning most of the swing voters UKIP are currently attracting; why would they swing that way later if they're not doing so now? On the other hand, why would they return to the Lib Dems as a protest party while they're in government, or the Tories while they're only pursuing a very soft right agenda? Only the prospect of serious change post the general election might allow for that and one has to question what might prompt such a belief in a serious change.
UKIP are picking up support because their voters are finding no home in the other parties. I am sure that were the other parties to offer them a home, they would return there as better options to deliver. The question is whether the other parties are capable of doing that.
Let's hope the upshot of UKIP winning 200 council seats is that the supremely silly and complacent Ken Clarke is finally put out of pasture.
The problem is that the main three UK parties think they have a right to dominate UK politics and receive all the attention. The FPTP system allows this to continue and is therefore the reason we need a version of PR or a brand new system. People argue that our current system means you have stronger governments and the financial markets like this, which is a fair point. But somehow we have to be able to reflect the votes cast for the other parties. If UKIP obtain 15% of the vote in 2015 and end up with one MP (Farage), then it is not a fair system. Perhaps if the number of MP's is reduced to say 500, we can have 300 who are elected to represent an area and the remaining 200 are allocated based on share of the vote. So if UKIP scored 15%, they would get 30 MP's, plus whatever seats they won. Rubbish idea, as you then have some MP's with consituencies and some without. But some form of top up to FPTP, to allow representation of other parties would be a good idea.
Comments
I'm hearing of a Green gain (not unexpected) in Mark Senior country - Worthing.
Nigel Farage, the Latter Day Caesar, with Cameron as Pompey.
Indeed. Tunbridge Wells is very affluent, with strong connections to Europe, doing biz with Europe, even owning homes in Europe.
http://kentcommunityactivist.blogspot.co.uk/2011/01/tory-in-fighting-descends-into-farce-in.html
http://www.kentnews.co.uk/news/tunbridge_wells_regeneration_company_cost_more_than_650_000_1_1741051
http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/Tunbridge-Wells-Borough-Council-leader-vows-walk/story-18081087-detail/story.html#axzz2SDwCNkFs
No UKIP, Labour, Tory, Green or Independent tanks in Bristol...
And who would Miliband be?
1 Kipper so far.
Ed Miliband, could be Mark Antony, but David Miliband would probably say he's Brutus (but again, not that Brutus)
Yes - its all Gt Yarmouth - what's interesting is that Kippers split the vote last time and IIRC the Tories lost control to Labour - now Kippers are just bypassing Labour and winning themselves.
What should scare them is if it turns out that people who voted for Gordon Brown are now going for UKIP (or Con or anyone else) in any numbers.
Do you think we're still on course for a hung parliament in 2015?
Mr. Eagles, the Metelli are less well-known than perhaps they ought to be. They dominated Roman politics, but did so in the interval between the Punic Wars and the Late Republic, which is less well-known than the periods before and after.
http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/council/democracy/elections/elections-2013
So;
1. An "anti-establishment" mood means all the main parties are in trouble. Obviously the party full of Etonians is in the biggest trouble.
2. The country is still in no mood to swing decisively towards one political party, which means another hung parliament looks certain in 2015.
3. The biggest poser from these results is probably for Labour, because Ed Miliband appears to think he is a left wing version of Mrs Thatcher and that he will move the UK back to the kind of pure Socialism not seen since the 1970's. Yet, these results seem to imply he is setting himself against the prevailing political wind - Can't end well for him.
4. Due to 1 and 3 if the Tories had a populist leadership that could connect with aspirational and working class voters while keeping the Shires on board 2015 would be VERY winnable, IMO. Alas they are stuck with Cameron and Osborne.
We projected yesterday that UKIP may gain up to 120 seats. Adding overnight result swing indicates potentially 200+ http://survation.com/2013/05/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/ …
Wow....
Why does it take so long when they pay out on a horse race in a couple of minutes?
"It means that UKIP’s surge is definitely hurting the Conservatives now but, by the same token, if it can be reversed by the time of the general election it could mean that much or all of Labour’s opinion poll lead could be washed away. UKIP’s voters — who tend to be older but only slightly more likely to be male than female — much prefer Mr Cameron to Ed Miliband."
"What is even funnier is the confusion it is causing the leaders of the established political class. They are already emerging for a round of local election bingo, with the key phrases drawn from the standard issue manual used by all the major parties. "We hear what people are saying… people want to make a protest… they want us to get on with the job… people have very real concerns… it's mid-term… we'll be reflecting." But this time, when they mouth the words, they look as though they know their platitudes have been rumbled.
The distress the voter rebellion causes the bigger parties does seem to be an important part of the appeal of Ukip. Voting for Farage is an entertaining way of giving the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems two fingers. Of course the longer-term implications are not necessarily funny. This is a country, not a comedy club. But large numbers of voters are so disenchanted that they see no possibility of an answer in the old parties. They are having a lot of fun trying to blow up the system."
I think the mood is much more unrealistic and wishful. Main stream politicians aren';t listening to or being honest with voters and so a pie in the sky party like UKIP gets loads of votes.
What would the point of hedging a fun bet be?
The value has been in the NOM price for a long time and should be even better now.
You can lay Tory Overall Majority [5.3 Betfair] till the cows come home. Sorry, Blue fans, it just ain't gonna happen.
Witney? LOL
ATTLEBOROUGH: Alec Byrne (Conservative) HOLD
BOWTHORPE: Mike Sands (Labour) GAIN from Conservative
BREYDON: Alan Grey (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives
CLENCHWARTON & KING’S LYNN SOUTH: Alex Kemp (Labour) HOLD
CROME: George Nobbs (Labour) HOLD
DEREHAM NORTH: William Richmond (Conservative) HOLD
DEREHAM SOUTH: Paul Gilmour (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives
EAST FLEGG: Jonathon Childs (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives
ELMHAM AND MATTISHALL: Bill Borrett (Conservative) HOLD
GORLESTON ST ANDREWS: Matthew Smith (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives
GUILTCROSS: Stephen Askew (Conservative) HOLD
KING’S LYNN NORTH & CENTRAL: David Collis (Lab) GAIN from Conservatives
LOTHINGLAND: Colin Aldred (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives
MAGDALEN: Coleen Walker (Labour) HOLD
MILE CROSS: Deborah Gihawi (Labour) GAIN from Greens
NECTON AND LAUNDITCH: Mark Kiddle-Morris (Conservative) HOLD
WENSUM: Elizabeth Morgan (Greens) HOLD
WEST FLEGG: Michael Carttiss (Conservative) HOLD
YARMOUTH NELSON & SOUTHTOWN: Rex Parkinson-Hare (UKIP) HOLD
YARMOUTH NORTH & CENTRAL: Michael Castle (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
My prediction is that all three main parties will say that they are listening and that all three will respond in the wrong way.
It's a very interesting dilemma for Labour. UKIP may well be harming them, but even with UKIP as a pain free option for voters, the party is still picking up support. That may indicate a pretty solid core, or it may indicate the final fling of people giving the party the benefit of the doubt one last time (which was my voting stance yesterday). Either way, the prospects of a meaningful Labour majority in 2015 look very distant.
All in all, absolutely fascinating. How on earth am I going to get any work done today?
Somewhat unlikely.
Clarke is there to fool gullible Eurosceptics into thinking Cammie is more Eurosceptic than he actually is. The truth of course is that he and Clarke both favour staying IN Europe and that is the only dividing line that really matters now. Particularly to the kippers.
http://talkcarswell.com/home/if-ukip-are-the-insurgency-where-is-the-counter/2650
"UKIP are, tweeted the Telegraph's Chris Deerin, "a rejection of a certain way of doing politics by a certain type of politics". So let's change it - and campaigning to quit the EU should only be part of it."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2013/05/nigel-farage-confirms-it-was-the-spectator-wot-won-it/
Like a Boss.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22394716
"According to UKFI, which manages the government's stakes in the banks, the price actually paid by the Treasury for its 82% stake was 502p per share.
However the valuation in the government's books is 407p per share - a fairly chunky difference.
That lower "book" value captures a loss that the government has already absorbed on the investment: the loss is the difference between what the government paid for the shares and the market price of RBS on the days the then Chancellor, Alistair Darling, actually handed over the money for the shares."
"Most investment purists would see the correct number as 502p.
If the chancellor were to ape the often cynical behaviour of big companies when faced with similar accounting dilemmas, he would probably choose the lowest possible price - of 407p.
So politics being what it is, I suspect he will claim success if he can get 440p.
All of which may seem a bit academic right now, with RBS shares massively underwater, as they say, at 290p."
"Or to put it another way, the notional loss for taxpayers today on their 82% stake in RBS is a maximum of £20bn and well over £10bn on any valuation."
Conservatives have 14 seats so far - lost 5 so far #kccelections
The act of catching herpes is fun. So I am told.
UKIP will certainly be very strong at the euros.
However, if vetting is poor and their victories today exceed all expectations then they could have some problem candidates.
It also depends how the three major parties respond. Lip service will probably do more harm than good.
It will be odds on soon.
2 to LD, 1 to labour and 1 to Independent. All holds.
UKIP only stood in one of those seats and gained 17.4% of the vote.
I can;t believe that. What worries me about this is that when some UKIP supporters talk about 'immigration' they are talking about people who are already here, and perfectly legitimately.
I did back UKIP to win the Euros @ 3/1 in January.
If that's true then why vote for them?
If the UK were Italy the kippers would actually have gained some power in these elections.
UKIP are performing spectacularly well not because of years of toil on the ground but because of a national swing based party on what the national party is, and to a greater extent, on what they're not. This is more akin to the Greens in 1989 rather than the slow but relentless rise of the Liberals or SNP. At the moment.
The question is the extent to which UKIP can capitalise on their gains. How well will their councillors perform? They haven't nursed their seats to victory and will have to learn on the job how to do so if they want to keep them based on something other than the vicissitudes of national politics.
For the time being - until 2015 at least - UKIP are a fixture. I can't see Labour winning most of the swing voters UKIP are currently attracting; why would they swing that way later if they're not doing so now? On the other hand, why would they return to the Lib Dems as a protest party while they're in government, or the Tories while they're only pursuing a very soft right agenda? Only the prospect of serious change post the general election might allow for that and one has to question what might prompt such a belief in a serious change.
UKIP are picking up support because their voters are finding no home in the other parties. I am sure that were the other parties to offer them a home, they would return there as better options to deliver. The question is whether the other parties are capable of doing that.
UKIP win Littleport from the Conservatives #cccelection
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/330274279977529345
Con -9, Lab +7, LD -11, UKIP +18
True true. I should have backe 10-15% at 5s when we struck our bets but couldnt be arsed