I think the best way for Ed Miliband to deal with any threat from UKIP would be to say that mass immigration has improved Britains education system, reduced crime and saved our economy.
He should add that Nigel Farage is a 21st century Hitler who hates Europeans and will probably lead us into a long, drawn out war with the rest of the continent, starting with his German wife and kids.
He should conclude with the news that an opinion poll has shown the public to be very pleased with the increase in chocolate since the chocolate rations were reduced.
There are some good results in here for Labour, particularly zeroed in on targets they need in the South.
Big, big worries for the Tories, who have lost ground in the North and probably the Midlands too.
UKIP will be an irrelevance by the next election, but if they're not, then they're a Tory problem.
UKIP will have more councillors now who as Mike reminds us are the 'footsoldiers' of local electoral organisation. That increases their chances of a Westminster MP or two. I hope
It does. Whatever the amusing hysteria and spin right now the facts are that councils and councillors matter for a party base and activists to build on. Most crucially to either gain or defend MPs by mobilising the increased membership that the higher profile and increased participation such local wins afford. They also play no small part in future locals and the likes of the EU election.
Winning or losing a great many of them is the meat of what has occurred and has the most tangible and lasting significance.
London, like many capital cities is atypical of the rest of the country. Certainly at present it is a focus for many globally-minded business people (two of which are my sons) who are ambitious and prepared to go where the opportunities are. It is true that they can be driven away by over-high and seemingly unfairly targeted taxation. Also over-regulation that is both business and personal is a deterrent to stay in the UK.
However, to a large degree they are insulated from the many of the concerns of the C2DEers who are currently supporting UKIP.
Talking with these global business-people, I find that few are either Labour or LibDem supporters but do tend to UKIP or anyone who will allow them to progress without undue interference to both their personal and business lives.
@Financier: these people are *old* UKIP voters. As I said down-thread, they liked anti-regulation, vaguely libertarian, pro-globalisation UKIP.
I'm not so sure they're keen on pro-regulation, pull-the-drawbridge-up, anti-globalisation, anti-gay-marriage, Europe.
What are the pro-regulation, anti-globalisation policies you're talking about?
I agree with Polruan downthread. UKIP's advance is clearly mainly at Tory expense and in a tactical sense that's good for Labour and is allowing us to pick up seats in all kinds of unlikely places (including the Deep South, pace John Zims). It clearly doesn't equate to winning the intellectual argument and that's not so good for us.
That said, what passes for political debate in Britain when it's been squeezed through the party media managers barely qualifies as intellectual argument, from any party. "We'll make you better off, the other side are rubbish" sums up 75% of all the messages. UKIP's "They're all rubbish, we're new and common sense" is just a variant on the theme. to be fair, the main parties do quite serious work on policy as well, but it's not deemed appropriate for mass market messaging.
I think the best way for Ed Miliband to deal with any threat from UKIP would be to say that mass immigration has improved Britains education system, reduced crime and saved our economy.
He should add that Nigel Farage is a 21st century Hitler who hates Europeans and will probably lead us into a long, drawn out war with the rest of the continent, starting with his German wife and kids.
He should conclude with the news that an opinion poll has shown the public to be very pleased with the increase in chocolate since the chocolate rations were reduced.
Miss Plato, maybe Clegg should claim it's a triumph for increasing the proportionality of Lib Dem vote share to seats. 1.4% of the vote and 0% of the seat is a very close match for a FPTP system.
I saw this comment from the commenter Dog over at the Telegraph blogs page on UKIP. I hope they print a copy out at CCHQ and nail it to the walls and stick it in Dave's in-tray. Pretty clear summary of of what is happening in UK politics and why:
Grant Shapps is desperate. The tories are desperate.
They are NOT listening. All they are saying is, "we are listening, BUT in 2015 it will be a choice between Miliband and Cameron walking through the door of number 10"
That proves that they are NOT listening.
WE DO NOT CARE WHICH BETWEEN MILIBAND OR CAMERON IS IN NO.10!!! the choice in who we vote for is WHO IS OFFERING US POLICIES WE WANT? The tories are NOT doing that.
The tories and labour are damned near identical. Both are Quantititive easing losers, running a debt and deficit within less than 1% of each other's plans, both are dedicated to remaining IN the EU, whether it gets reformed, or not! Both are dedicated to allowing immigration to continue through the EU, Both are dedicated to killing tens of thousands each winter with hypothermia due to carbon taxes and subsidies for useless windmills pushing millions into energy poverty, both are appeasing politically correct pressure groups and encouraging divisive victimhood special pleading and social breakdown.
WE DO NOT CARE WHICH ANTI-BRITISH PM WE GET IF WE CANNOT WIN. WE ARE NOT VOTING FOR YOUR CORRUPT ANTI BRITISH AGENDA!!!
How plain is that? DO YOU TORIES GET IT YET?
You had your chance to kill UKIP in 2010. UKIP even gave you the pistol and the instructions. UKIP offered to effectively stand down completely and give the tories a free run at a majority IF they gave us the in-or-out referendum on the EU 80% of the people want. Cameron rejected that offer.
We warned you what would happen and you did not listen then.
Now we are taking your right to govern us away, you are beginning to take note, but your arrogance means that your are still NOT listening.
We will not vote for you until you deliver:
A full, real, genuine in or out referendum on EU membership before, or by the date of the next general election.
A real cap on immigration, including from the EU
LOW simple taxes, smaller government.
Scrap the windfarms and deliver affordable energy
An end to politically correct divisiveness.
Unless you do that, it shows that you are NOT listening.
I agree with Polruan downthread. UKIP's advance is clearly mainly at Tory expense and in a tactical sense that's good for Labour and is allowing us to pick up seats in all kinds of unlikely places (including the Deep South, pace John Zims). It clearly doesn't equate to winning the intellectual argument and that's not so good for us.
That said, what passes for political debate in Britain when it's been squeezed through the party media managers barely qualifies as intellectual argument, from any party. "We'll make you better off, the other side are rubbish" sums up 75% of all the messages. UKIP's "They're all rubbish, we're new and common sense" is just a variant on the theme. to be fair, the main parties do quite serious work on policy as well, but it's not deemed appropriate for mass market messaging.
Nick, which of these seats make up Broxtowe out of interest ?
He also quite fancies a scrap with Europe over Bulgarian and Romanian migrants. If the UK announces it isn’t prepared to accept many new migrants from these countries when transitional controls lift, then the rest of Europe will follow, he predicts. ‘Once somebody breaches the dyke, I think others will follow,’ he says. But there’s also a chance for him or another MP to spark a fight in the Commons. Field wants to introduce a bill tying welfare to claimants’ contributions to the system, their functions as a worker and the amount of time they’ve spent in the country. ‘I’d love to do this,’ he says. ‘I shall be going into the private members’ ballot.’ And he believes that a backbench bill along these lines would make life difficult for the government by crystallising opinion in the Commons. On which note, he also suggests Labour should trump David Cameron by bringing forward its own legislation for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU (Field was one of 19 Labour MPs who rebelled on the 2011 backbench vote for a referendum).
F1: interestingly, Mercedes and Kubica are working fairly closely. If he recovers enough they're going to let him try one of their F1 cars: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22395082
I'd be nervous if I were Rosberg. Kubica was very talented, but a lack of competitive cars meant that he didn't get in the headlines as much as his skill warranted.
Ind candidate Mick Maye says "Labour walkover" 1 of Peter Davies (former EngDem incumbent)' team claims 2 horse race. No one betting here yet at Doncaster racecourse
"By contrast, all the scandals surrounding Ukip this week only confirmed its accidental authenticity – its refusal or inability to be anything other than crude, rude and painfully honest. It is also fun. Humour is very important in Anglosphere politics. For the English, wit is the way that we communicate fury, intelligence and love. There's something funny, and thus irresistible, about Farage with a cigarette in hand, hat on head, charming the voters with his market banter.
What a shockingly old fashioned view on what it is to be British. A British revolution would have involved steel drums, Chicken Tikka Massala, Polish electricians making the streetlights flash, and people whose grandparents fought for the UK in the Battle of Britain cheering them on waving EU flags and government focus group surveys, fighting for the continuing British tradition of mass immigration, equality and diversity
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 59s Doctor Paddy's diagnosis >> @oflynnexpress: Electro-cardiograph of One Nation Labour:________________________________________
Clearly the way to get UKIP votes back for the Tories is to let a few British Army interpreters get strung up.
Heard that story yesterday its ridiculous that he might not be allowed asylum. If the government deny him after allowing in Lord knows how many bogus aslyum seekers in, the word "asylum" will have lost its meaning almost to the degree of the word "racism"
"If the share of the vote in these elections was replicated at the next general election, Ed Miliband would be PM, with a tiny Labour majority in the Commons of 4 (Tim Ross writes).
The projection, from Sky News, suggested Labour would have 327 seats, the Tories 244 and the Lib Dems 53. Other smaller parties would share 26 seats between them."
Mid term local elections with a revolution going on in the shires and that is the best Labour can do? Bring it on.
The Cons simply reversing a foolish Labour policy.
I disagree. There are only a few hundred Afghan interpreters, so will not make much difference to overall migration. They speak very good English. They have been working closely with Britons. They chose to side with forces of democracy and progress. And they have an emotional connection to this country, having risked their lives for our boys. Like the Gurkhas, I think we should let them stay.
"If the share of the vote in these elections was replicated at the next general election, Ed Miliband would be PM, with a tiny Labour majority in the Commons of 4 (Tim Ross writes).
The projection, from Sky News, suggested Labour would have 327 seats, the Tories 244 and the Lib Dems 53. Other smaller parties would share 26 seats between them."
Mid term local elections with a revolution going on in the shires and that is the best Labour can do? Bring it on.
Were the areas voting disproportionately Tory, though?
The Cons simply reversing a foolish Labour policy.
I disagree. There are only a few hundred Afghan interpreters, so will not make much difference to overall migration. They speak very good English. They have been working closely with Britons. They chose to side with forces of democracy and progress. And they have an emotional connection to this country, having risked their lives for our boys. Like the Gurkhas, I think we should let them stay.
We've fixed your country but it's still rubbish - so come live with us.
Exactly the sort of pander to the public sector special cases that Ukip was railling against no ?
I saw this comment from the commenter Dog over at the Telegraph blogs page on UKIP. I hope they print a copy out at CCHQ and nail it to the walls and stick it in Dave's in-tray. Pretty clear summary of of what is happening in UK politics and why:
Grant Shapps is desperate. The tories are desperate.
They are NOT listening. All they are saying is, "we are listening, BUT in 2015 it will be a choice between Miliband and Cameron walking through the door of number 10"
That proves that they are NOT listening.
WE DO NOT CARE WHICH BETWEEN MILIBAND OR CAMERON IS IN NO.10!!! the choice in who we vote for is WHO IS OFFERING US POLICIES WE WANT? The tories are NOT doing that.
The tories and labour are damned near identical. Both are Quantititive easing losers, running a debt and deficit within less than 1% of each other's plans, both are dedicated to remaining IN the EU, whether it gets reformed, or not! Both are dedicated to allowing immigration to continue through the EU, Both are dedicated to killing tens of thousands each winter with hypothermia due to carbon taxes and subsidies for useless windmills pushing millions into energy poverty, both are appeasing politically correct pressure groups and encouraging divisive victimhood special pleading and social breakdown.
WE DO NOT CARE WHICH ANTI-BRITISH PM WE GET IF WE CANNOT WIN. WE ARE NOT VOTING FOR YOUR CORRUPT ANTI BRITISH AGENDA!!!
How plain is that? DO YOU TORIES GET IT YET?
You had your chance to kill UKIP in 2010. UKIP even gave you the pistol and the instructions. UKIP offered to effectively stand down completely and give the tories a free run at a majority IF they gave us the in-or-out referendum on the EU 80% of the people want. Cameron rejected that offer.
We warned you what would happen and you did not listen then.
Now we are taking your right to govern us away, you are beginning to take note, but your arrogance means that your are still NOT listening.
We will not vote for you until you deliver:
A full, real, genuine in or out referendum on EU membership before, or by the date of the next general election.
A real cap on immigration, including from the EU
LOW simple taxes, smaller government.
Scrap the windfarms and deliver affordable energy
An end to politically correct divisiveness.
Unless you do that, it shows that you are NOT listening.
I love the 'scrap the windfarms' line. Surely it would actually make economic sense to simply say 'scrap the windfarm subsidies'.
By the way, as the windfarms are levered to the hilt, with money borrowed mostly from (yes, you guessed it), the Royal Bank of Scotland (leaders in windfarm financing!), we will end up picking up the bill irrespective.
'Affordable energy' is not something that is within the government's ability to deliver. Yes, they can scrap windfarm subsidies: but as this generates less than 5% of total UK electricity (and as the feed in tariff for your average wind-farm is about £10/megawatt hour against a current baseload price of c. £6/MWH), scrapping subsidies for wind can't reduce prices by more than 2.5% at best.
Our energy prices are set by the world markets for coal and natural gas. These set the price of baseload electricity in the UK. There is nothing any politician can do to change the price of coal or oil or natural gas. Of course, we can and should invest more in fracking, etc., but as none of these things will stop us being an importer of these commodities, our electricity price will continue to be set by the international prices of these things.
It is ignorant or disingenuous to suggest otherwise
1043: Polling expert Prof John Curtice tells the BBC: "There is little evidence to support the presumption that UKIP are doing substantially better in areas of Conservative strength." In wards where the Tories won more than 45% of votes in 2009, UKIP's average share is running at 28%, just above the national average of 27%, he adds.
"If the share of the vote in these elections was replicated at the next general election, Ed Miliband would be PM, with a tiny Labour majority in the Commons of 4 (Tim Ross writes).
The projection, from Sky News, suggested Labour would have 327 seats, the Tories 244 and the Lib Dems 53. Other smaller parties would share 26 seats between them."
Mid term local elections with a revolution going on in the shires and that is the best Labour can do? Bring it on.
Were the areas voting disproportionately Tory, though?
As I understand it this is a national projection adjusting for the areas that actually voted. I can't see this projection on their website yet so I don't know the details but if that is even close to correct these results are as catastrophic for Labour as they are for the tories, arguably even worse.
The Cons simply reversing a foolish Labour policy.
I disagree. There are only a few hundred Afghan interpreters, so will not make much difference to overall migration. They speak very good English. They have been working closely with Britons. They chose to side with forces of democracy and progress. And they have an emotional connection to this country, having risked their lives for our boys. Like the Gurkhas, I think we should let them stay.
We've fixed your country but it's still rubbish - so come live with us.
Exactly the sort of pander to the public sector special cases that Ukip was railling against no ?
I think this is an entirely correct thing for an Englishman to do... the interpreter has taken our side over the Taliban and woiuld be in mortal danger for his life were he to stay in Afghanistan. What more does someone have to do to deserve asylum? We should give him a cushy job somewhere as soon as he arrives
Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse "If we want to win back Harlow and Thurrock we need to do a lot better," says Sadique Khan, of lacklustre Labour performance in Essex
Harry Hayfield @HarryHayfield #Warwickshire Forecast: #Lab 36 (+26) #Con 22 (-11) #Green 1 (+1) #Stratford First 1 (+1) #LibDem 1 (-11) #Rates 1 (n/c) #Lab GAIN from Con
Yes and no. It depends on how well controlled the sample is, because the singular of data is anecdote. (Actually, I think it's datum, but you get the idea).
The Cons simply reversing a foolish Labour policy.
I disagree. There are only a few hundred Afghan interpreters, so will not make much difference to overall migration. They speak very good English. They have been working closely with Britons. They chose to side with forces of democracy and progress. And they have an emotional connection to this country, having risked their lives for our boys. Like the Gurkhas, I think we should let them stay.
We've fixed your country but it's still rubbish - so come live with us.
Exactly the sort of pander to the public sector special cases that Ukip was railling against no ?
I think this is an entirely correct thing for an Englishman to do... the interpreter has taken our side over the Taliban and woiuld be in mortal danger for his life were he to stay in Afghanistan. What more does someone have to do to deserve asylum? We should give him a cushy job somewhere as soon as he arrives
Why brain drain the country ? These chaps could be jolly useful putting the country back on its feet - it's a big place - I'm sure they could move to another town where they aren't recognised.
Joe Watts @JoeWatts_ In one Norfolk County seat, Ukip won beating the sitting Tory cabinet member and the Labour candidate who is leader of the District Council!
I don't know how accurate it can be but UKIP is probably not taking many Labour 2010 voters....but they are taking former Lab voters who switched to Con in 2006-10 and are bypassing them now
I don't know how accurate it can be but UKIP is probably not taking many Labour 2010 voters....but they are taking former Lab voters who switched to Con in 2006-10 and are bypassing them now
This master strategy has been brought to you by Osbrowne and Lincolnshire tory councillors.
;^)
Yes, agreeing with the voters is so dumb.
You think UKIP are dumb for capitalising on the tory stupidity of running on one of UKIPs core issues they will never outflank them on? I rather think it's the other way around somehow.
Beeston South should go Labour. There might be no other changes at all, though there are several seats where a surprise is possible. depending on UKIP's impact. The "problem" is that centre-left voters in Broxtowe have an ingrained habit of voting LibDem locally and Labour nationally. At local elections, it frustrates us, and at GEs it frustrates the LibDems.
I saw this comment from the commenter Dog over at the Telegraph blogs page on UKIP. I hope they print a copy out at CCHQ and nail it to the walls and stick it in Dave's in-tray. Pretty clear summary of of what is happening in UK politics and why:
Grant Shapps is desperate. The tories are desperate.
They are NOT listening. All they are saying is, "we are listening, BUT in 2015 it will be a choice between Miliband and Cameron walking through the door of number 10"
That proves that they are NOT listening.
WE DO NOT CARE WHICH BETWEEN MILIBAND OR CAMERON IS IN NO.10!!! the choice in who we vote for is WHO IS OFFERING US POLICIES WE WANT? The tories are NOT doing that.
The tories and labour are damned near identical. Both are Quantititive easing losers, running a debt and deficit within less than 1% of each other's plans, both are dedicated to remaining IN the EU, whether it gets reformed, or not! Both are dedicated to allowing immigration to continue through the EU, Both are dedicated to killing tens of thousands each winter with hypothermia due to carbon taxes and subsidies for useless windmills pushing millions into energy poverty, both are appeasing politically correct pressure groups and encouraging divisive victimhood special pleading and social breakdown.
WE DO NOT CARE WHICH ANTI-BRITISH PM WE GET IF WE CANNOT WIN. WE ARE NOT VOTING FOR YOUR CORRUPT ANTI BRITISH AGENDA!!!
How plain is that? DO YOU TORIES GET IT YET?
You had your chance to kill UKIP in 2010. UKIP even gave you the pistol and the instructions. UKIP offered to effectively stand down completely and give the tories a free run at a majority IF they gave us the in-or-out referendum on the EU 80% of the people want. Cameron rejected that offer.
We warned you what would happen and you did not listen then.
Now we are taking your right to govern us away, you are beginning to take note, but your arrogance means that your are still NOT listening.
We will not vote for you until you deliver:
A full, real, genuine in or out referendum on EU membership before, or by the date of the next general election.
A real cap on immigration, including from the EU
LOW simple taxes, smaller government.
Scrap the windfarms and deliver affordable energy
An end to politically correct divisiveness.
Unless you do that, it shows that you are NOT listening.
I love the 'scrap the windfarms' line. Surely it would actually make economic sense to simply say 'scrap the windfarm subsidies'.
By the way, as the windfarms are levered to the hilt, with money borrowed mostly from (yes, you guessed it), the Royal Bank of Scotland (leaders in windfarm financing!), we will end up picking up the bill irrespective.
'Affordable energy' is not something that is within the government's ability to deliver. Yes, they can scrap windfarm subsidies: but as this generates less than 5% of total UK electricity (and as the feed in tariff for your average wind-farm is about £10/megawatt hour against a current baseload price of c. £6/MWH), scrapping subsidies for wind can't reduce prices by more than 2.5% at best.
Our energy prices are set by the world markets for coal and natural gas. These set the price of baseload electricity in the UK. There is nothing any politician can do to change the price of coal or oil or natural gas. Of course, we can and should invest more in fracking, etc., but as none of these things will stop us being an importer of these commodities, our electricity price will continue to be set by the international prices of these things.
It is ignorant or disingenuous to suggest otherwise
Well said. But that 2.5% would be blooming useful at this current time. Every little helps. ;-0
Lucy Osborne @Lucy_Osborne Three women in one family become UKIP councilors in Boston, Lincolnshire - Sue Ransome and her daughters Felicity and Lizzie
Notts update: Labour is gaining seats in the north and Hucknall. We should be largest party - overall control is a stretch and depends on several results tipping at once - it will either be just exceeded or just missed.
The Cons simply reversing a foolish Labour policy.
I disagree. There are only a few hundred Afghan interpreters, so will not make much difference to overall migration. They speak very good English. They have been working closely with Britons. They chose to side with forces of democracy and progress. And they have an emotional connection to this country, having risked their lives for our boys. Like the Gurkhas, I think we should let them stay.
We've fixed your country but it's still rubbish - so come live with us.
Exactly the sort of pander to the public sector special cases that Ukip was railling against no ?
I think this is an entirely correct thing for an Englishman to do... the interpreter has taken our side over the Taliban and woiuld be in mortal danger for his life were he to stay in Afghanistan. What more does someone have to do to deserve asylum? We should give him a cushy job somewhere as soon as he arrives
Why brain drain the country ? These chaps could be jolly useful putting the country back on its feet - it's a big place - I'm sure they could move to another town where they aren't recognised.
If it were down to me, he should be given the option to stay put if he likes but welcomed with open arms if he want to live here.
This master strategy has been brought to you by Osbrowne and Lincolnshire tory councillors.
;^)
Yes, agreeing with the voters is so dumb.
You think UKIP are dumb for capitalising on the tory stupidity of running on one of UKIPs core issues they will never outflank them on? I rather think it's the other way around somehow. Holding the in/out referendum satisfies the public's desire for one. Doing popular things is a good idea for a political party.
UKIP has taken five seats in Norfolk so far, as counting continues. They are in Gorleston, Dereham South, Marshland North, Breydon, and Gaywood North and Central.
"If the share of the vote in these elections was replicated at the next general election, Ed Miliband would be PM, with a tiny Labour majority in the Commons of 4 (Tim Ross writes).
The projection, from Sky News, suggested Labour would have 327 seats, the Tories 244 and the Lib Dems 53. Other smaller parties would share 26 seats between them."
Mid term local elections with a revolution going on in the shires and that is the best Labour can do? Bring it on.
A really terrific effort by you Rob and many thanks - it says a great deal about your brilliant spreadsheet when one can't find anything nearly as good on any of the leading media/broadcasters' sites.
The Cons simply reversing a foolish Labour policy.
I disagree. There are only a few hundred Afghan interpreters, so will not make much difference to overall migration. They speak very good English. They have been working closely with Britons. They chose to side with forces of democracy and progress. And they have an emotional connection to this country, having risked their lives for our boys. Like the Gurkhas, I think we should let them stay.
We've fixed your country but it's still rubbish - so come live with us.
Exactly the sort of pander to the public sector special cases that Ukip was railling against no ?
I think this is an entirely correct thing for an Englishman to do... the interpreter has taken our side over the Taliban and woiuld be in mortal danger for his life were he to stay in Afghanistan. What more does someone have to do to deserve asylum? We should give him a cushy job somewhere as soon as he arrives
Why brain drain the country ? These chaps could be jolly useful putting the country back on its feet - it's a big place - I'm sure they could move to another town where they aren't recognised.
If it were down to me, he should be given the option to stay put if he likes but welcomed with open arms if he want to live here.
He was a translator - not a secret agent who infiltrated Osama's cave. What next - taxi drivers, cooks and cleaners ?
Polling expert Prof John Curtice tells the BBC: "There is little evidence to support the presumption that UKIP are doing substantially better in areas of Conservative strength." In wards where the Tories won more than 45% of votes in 2009, UKIP's average share is running at 28%, just above the national average of 27%, he adds.
Notts update: Labour is gaining seats in the north and Hucknall. We should be largest party - overall control is a stretch and depends on several results tipping at once - it will either be just exceeded or just missed.
Continuing the north-midlands theme: Buxton West.
Matthew Alexander Bain Green Party 219 Tony Arthur Kemp Conservative 1123 Bob Morris Independent 771 Fiona Sloman Labour 952 Christopher Richard Warhurst Weaver Liberal Democrat 90
2009:
Robin Basil Baldry (Conservative) 2292 votes Jane Ann McGrother (Labour) 831 votes Christopher Richard Warhurst Weaver(Liberal Democrats) 832 votes
CON is lucky UKIP didn't stand there. Anyway Lib Dems from 832 to 90 !! votes. Lib Dems had 8 wards in Derbyshire. I wouldn't be surprised to see complete annihilation.
1102: Professor John Curtice has been looking at how the "smaller" parties have done in wards where they also fielded candidates in 2009. UKIP is up 14 points at 26%. Meanwhile, the Greens are down three points at 7% and the British National Party is down 11 points at 4%.
Tim Wyatt @tswyatt 5m Ukip have won Tunbridge Wells East. Polled 1,386. Tories only 1,005. #kccelections
Tunbridge Wells??!
They accidentally won last year and beheaded the Tory leader - the Kipper was a lawyer who'd done zero campaigning bar car stickers and a few garden posters. He was gobsmacked.
Holding the in/out referendum satisfies the public's desire for one. Doing popular things is a good idea for a political party.
Posturing and pretending you're going to hold one satisfies gullible tory eurosceptics, for a while at least. Continually making a fool of those MPs is eventually going to come back to bite Cammie.
Pledging things you have no intention of sticking to is not a good idea for a political party
A big thanks from me to Rob as well for pulling together the Google Doc. The other sites are miles behind.
Thanks, and its no problem! Makes it more exciting
One thing annoying me is that Shropshire and Warwickshire don't have a results table, so I literally have to count the blue/red on the map!! Also, remember the change figures wont make sense until each council is 100% declared.
Comments
Alan Debes Liberal Democrat 123
Peter James Kay Conservative 610
Dave Wilcox Labour 1393
2009:
Steve Foote (Conservative) 983 votes
Rosa Kuppan (Liberal Democrats) 530 votes
David John Wilcox (Labour) 1103 votes
He should add that Nigel Farage is a 21st century Hitler who hates Europeans and will probably lead us into a long, drawn out war with the rest of the continent, starting with his German wife and kids.
He should conclude with the news that an opinion poll has shown the public to be very pleased with the increase in chocolate since the chocolate rations were reduced.
Whatever the amusing hysteria and spin right now the facts are that councils and councillors matter for a party base and activists to build on. Most crucially to either gain or defend MPs by mobilising the increased membership that the higher profile and increased participation such local wins afford. They also play no small part in future locals and the likes of the EU election.
Winning or losing a great many of them is the meat of what has occurred and has the most tangible and lasting significance.
'Labour official: "We've done OK. Mediocre at best. Avoided disaster"
Avoided disaster in mid-term when they are the only opposition party in parliament.
Pure comedy.
Labour fail in Avonmouth even with UKIP at 24%
That said, what passes for political debate in Britain when it's been squeezed through the party media managers barely qualifies as intellectual argument, from any party. "We'll make you better off, the other side are rubbish" sums up 75% of all the messages. UKIP's "They're all rubbish, we're new and common sense" is just a variant on the theme. to be fair, the main parties do quite serious work on policy as well, but it's not deemed appropriate for mass market messaging.
Labour is not winning seats in unlikely places so far. It's behind par so far.
And if you are right about Nottinghamshire going NOC, it's another disappointment.
Grant Shapps is desperate. The tories are desperate.
They are NOT listening. All they are saying is, "we are listening, BUT in 2015 it will be a choice between Miliband and Cameron walking through the door of number 10"
That proves that they are NOT listening.
WE DO NOT CARE WHICH BETWEEN MILIBAND OR CAMERON IS IN NO.10!!! the choice in who we vote for is WHO IS OFFERING US POLICIES WE WANT? The tories are NOT doing that.
The tories and labour are damned near identical. Both are Quantititive easing losers, running a debt and deficit within less than 1% of each other's plans, both are dedicated to remaining IN the EU, whether it gets reformed, or not! Both are dedicated to allowing immigration to continue through the EU, Both are dedicated to killing tens of thousands each winter with hypothermia due to carbon taxes and subsidies for useless windmills pushing millions into energy poverty, both are appeasing politically correct pressure groups and encouraging divisive victimhood special pleading and social breakdown.
WE DO NOT CARE WHICH ANTI-BRITISH PM WE GET IF WE CANNOT WIN. WE ARE NOT VOTING FOR YOUR CORRUPT ANTI BRITISH AGENDA!!!
How plain is that? DO YOU TORIES GET IT YET?
You had your chance to kill UKIP in 2010. UKIP even gave you the pistol and the instructions. UKIP offered to effectively stand down completely and give the tories a free run at a majority IF they gave us the in-or-out referendum on the EU 80% of the people want. Cameron rejected that offer.
We warned you what would happen and you did not listen then.
Now we are taking your right to govern us away, you are beginning to take note, but your arrogance means that your are still NOT listening.
We will not vote for you until you deliver:
A full, real, genuine in or out referendum on EU membership before, or by the date of the next general election.
A real cap on immigration, including from the EU
LOW simple taxes, smaller government.
Scrap the windfarms and deliver affordable energy
An end to politically correct divisiveness.
Unless you do that, it shows that you are NOT listening.
A harbinger!
Now that UKIP are proclaiming themselves the third party perhaps they are changing their logo to a flying parakeet just to annoy Clegg.
http://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/election2013
He also quite fancies a scrap with Europe over Bulgarian and Romanian migrants. If the UK announces it isn’t prepared to accept many new migrants from these countries when transitional controls lift, then the rest of Europe will follow, he predicts. ‘Once somebody breaches the dyke, I think others will follow,’ he says. But there’s also a chance for him or another MP to spark a fight in the Commons. Field wants to introduce a bill tying welfare to claimants’ contributions to the system, their functions as a worker and the amount of time they’ve spent in the country. ‘I’d love to do this,’ he says. ‘I shall be going into the private members’ ballot.’ And he believes that a backbench bill along these lines would make life difficult for the government by crystallising opinion in the Commons. On which note, he also suggests Labour should trump David Cameron by bringing forward its own legislation for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU (Field was one of 19 Labour MPs who rebelled on the 2011 backbench vote for a referendum).
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/frank-field-interview-labour-needs-to-do-something-dramatic-to-win-back-its-lost-working-class-voters/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22395082
I'd be nervous if I were Rosberg. Kubica was very talented, but a lack of competitive cars meant that he didn't get in the headlines as much as his skill warranted.
Ind candidate Mick Maye says "Labour walkover" 1 of Peter Davies (former EngDem incumbent)' team claims 2 horse race. No one betting here yet at Doncaster racecourse
Doctor Paddy's diagnosis >> @oflynnexpress: Electro-cardiograph of One Nation Labour:________________________________________
hehehe
"If the share of the vote in these elections was replicated at the next general election, Ed Miliband would be PM, with a tiny Labour majority in the Commons of 4 (Tim Ross writes).
The projection, from Sky News, suggested Labour would have 327 seats, the Tories 244 and the Lib Dems 53. Other smaller parties would share 26 seats between them."
Mid term local elections with a revolution going on in the shires and that is the best Labour can do? Bring it on.
Exactly the sort of pander to the public sector special cases that Ukip was railling against no ?
By the way, as the windfarms are levered to the hilt, with money borrowed mostly from (yes, you guessed it), the Royal Bank of Scotland (leaders in windfarm financing!), we will end up picking up the bill irrespective.
'Affordable energy' is not something that is within the government's ability to deliver. Yes, they can scrap windfarm subsidies: but as this generates less than 5% of total UK electricity (and as the feed in tariff for your average wind-farm is about £10/megawatt hour against a current baseload price of c. £6/MWH), scrapping subsidies for wind can't reduce prices by more than 2.5% at best.
Our energy prices are set by the world markets for coal and natural gas. These set the price of baseload electricity in the UK. There is nothing any politician can do to change the price of coal or oil or natural gas. Of course, we can and should invest more in fracking, etc., but as none of these things will stop us being an importer of these commodities, our electricity price will continue to be set by the international prices of these things.
It is ignorant or disingenuous to suggest otherwise
Keep up to date with the latest numbers I'm compiling here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE#gid=0
Remember the change columns are just a bit of fun
"If we want to win back Harlow and Thurrock we need to do a lot better," says Sadique Khan, of lacklustre Labour performance in Essex
Harry Hayfield @HarryHayfield
#Warwickshire Forecast: #Lab 36 (+26) #Con 22 (-11) #Green 1 (+1) #Stratford First 1 (+1) #LibDem 1 (-11) #Rates 1 (n/c) #Lab GAIN from Con
This master strategy has been brought to you by Osbrowne and Lincolnshire tory councillors.
;^)
Lab gain Clenchwarton & King's Lynn South
UKIP gain Gaywood North
A Kipper elected in Suffolk so far
http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ElectionId=67
This master strategy has been brought to you by Osbrowne and Lincolnshire tory councillors.
;^)
Yes, agreeing with the voters is so dumb.
In one Norfolk County seat, Ukip won beating the sitting Tory cabinet member and the Labour candidate who is leader of the District Council!
but UKIP is probably not taking many Labour 2010 voters....but they are taking former Lab voters who switched to Con in 2006-10 and are bypassing them now
You think UKIP are dumb for capitalising on the tory stupidity of running on one of UKIPs core issues they will never outflank them on? I rather think it's the other way around somehow.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nottinghamshire_County_Council_election,_2013
Beeston South should go Labour. There might be no other changes at all, though there are several seats where a surprise is possible. depending on UKIP's impact. The "problem" is that centre-left voters in Broxtowe have an ingrained habit of voting LibDem locally and Labour nationally. At local elections, it frustrates us, and at GEs it frustrates the LibDems.
Dogging scandal hits UKIP?
Lucy Osborne @Lucy_Osborne
Three women in one family become UKIP councilors in Boston, Lincolnshire - Sue Ransome and her daughters Felicity and Lizzie
Holding the in/out referendum satisfies the public's desire for one. Doing popular things is a good idea for a political party.
Labour crowing they've not lost any seats they only had 178 & those were won under Gordon Brown - they weren't going to lose them
What are the statisticians doing with the datums that I gave you last week?
They're all sat on their ba's doing their sa's ;-)
UKIP has taken five seats in Norfolk so far, as counting continues. They are in Gorleston, Dereham South, Marshland North, Breydon, and Gaywood North and Central.
He was a translator - not a secret agent who infiltrated Osama's cave. What next - taxi drivers, cooks and cleaners ?
Polling expert Prof John Curtice tells the BBC: "There is little evidence to support the presumption that UKIP are doing substantially better in areas of Conservative strength." In wards where the Tories won more than 45% of votes in 2009, UKIP's average share is running at 28%, just above the national average of 27%, he adds.
Matthew Alexander Bain Green Party 219
Tony Arthur Kemp Conservative 1123
Bob Morris Independent 771
Fiona Sloman Labour 952
Christopher Richard Warhurst Weaver Liberal Democrat 90
2009:
Robin Basil Baldry (Conservative) 2292 votes
Jane Ann McGrother (Labour) 831 votes
Christopher Richard Warhurst Weaver(Liberal Democrats) 832 votes
CON is lucky UKIP didn't stand there. Anyway Lib Dems from 832 to 90 !! votes. Lib Dems had 8 wards in Derbyshire. I wouldn't be surprised to see complete annihilation.
Tory gain in Horfield from LDs in Bristol.
Dave wakes up and looks out onto his lawn....what are those purple tanks doing out there??
RTW is perfect Kipper ground IMO.
You have just gained Sutton Central with Libdems last. According to De Piero
Victory in Lothingland ward moves UKIP up to six seats in Norfolk.
Wrath of the bumpkins...
Looks like UKIP could be heading to >100 gains (does it??) anyone on to win money on such a bet?
Pledging things you have no intention of sticking to is not a good idea for a political party
10.48 Early results suggest Labour's recovery from the disasterous 2009 elections has been modest.
In Essex yesterday, Labour received 17 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems 11 per cent and the Tories 34 per cent.
In 2009, those figures were 11, 20 and 43 - a gain of 6 per cent for Labour.
In 1997, ahead of Tony Blair's landslide, they were 32, 26 and 39.
Ladbrokes latest odds on UKIP vote share at next election:
0-5% 5/2
5-10 2/1
10-15 7/2
15-20 5/1
20-25 12/1
25%+ 14/1
One thing annoying me is that Shropshire and Warwickshire don't have a results table, so I literally have to count the blue/red on the map!! Also, remember the change figures wont make sense until each council is 100% declared.