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London is becoming a no go area for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
London is becoming a no go area for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Westminster Voting Intention [Greater London]:LAB: 52% (-3)CON: 17% (-3)LDM: 10% (+1)GRN: 10% (+1)RFM: 10% (+6)Via @YouGov, 12-19 Feb.Changes w/ 12-17 Oct.
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WHOAHHHH
I just accidentally squished the move-seat button with my iPad
Je suis idiot
However, I can report that their new Biz Class offering is very good, so far. Lovely little cabinettes, vintage champagne in the lounge and on the plane, slightly disappointing “bags of things” but not dismal
Yet to try the food tho. I know PB is agog so I’ll keep you all updated
The Tories hate everything about London: it's young university educated population, its cosmopolitan neighbourhoods, its liberality, its impoverished poor, its culture. They offer nothing to alleviate the hardship of the housing situation, or to support the people. Why would they get votes here with their neanderthal nativism?
https://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/1762442547220099419
Not that I think it'll happen, though...
https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/456329/a-purposeful-life-by-butler-dawn/9781529909753
The building's suffered a serious fire and a machine demolition. Some bits will be salvageable, but it won't be as it was.
Given that, there's a question: how much can you alter the building (e.g. include insulation and modern regulations) as long as you keep the 'character' of the original.
There's a very thin line between rebuilding, altering, and creating a crummy pastiche.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/367796/uk-median-age-by-region/
I'm London 63% of employees are graduates, higher than any other country/region.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/adhocs/1450onslocalgraduatesandnongraduatesemployedingraduateandnongraduaterolesnumbersandproportionsforukcountriesandregions2021and2022/graduatesandnongraduatesingraduaterolesandnongraduaterolesintheuk2021to2022.xlsx
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/londoners-less-tolerant-of-gay-or-transgender-children-polls-reveals-10119183.html
Median age in London is 35.9 years, 4.8 years younger than the UK average. The next youngest is NI at 39.8 years. Oldest is SW England
46.7% of Londoners are tertiary educated, with the UK average being 33.8%, with the West Midlands the lowest at 21%.
Knowing such demographics, and their trends is a key part of Constituency betting. Age and education being big predictors.
The map of educational qualifications here does a lot to explain regional variation in economic prospects.
https://news.sky.com/story/a-third-of-adults-now-have-degrees-or-similar-as-area-with-highest-proportion-with-no-qualifications-revealed-12783674
The "left behind areas" have a dearth of educational qualifications, while the regions that are prospering have the most with tertiary education . This rather contradicts the PB bias against high rates of tertiary education.
London is a city of extremes, so has both the most liberal and iliberal communities.
https://www.thepinknews.com/2015/03/18/exclusive-londoners-are-least-likely-to-accept-a-gay-or-transgender-child/
I've no idea if grandfather rights would apply to this sort of rebuild - I'd have guessed they would. It'd probably be a negotiation, and what we'll end up with is something that we'll be told has the 'character' of the original building. Despite 'character' often being granted from the age...
(I'm not even sure 'grandfather rights' is the correct term...)
So the first question I'd ask is what exactly the authorities want built.
If that were a local council, elected representatives who were themselves private landlords would have to declare a prejudicial interest, and stay away from the decision.
Since Brexit the Tories have tried to ride two horses, being simultaneously the party of the super rich, non-dom free market Libertarians and of socially conservative nativist pensioners with few qualifications.
Sunak is clearly the former, and Reform the latter, hence the current difficulties for the Tories. Neither group likes the other, and both dislike middle class working age Britons.
They cannot ride both horses much longer, and may well fall off both at the GE.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68413088
HMRC lets wealthy use VIP helpline to avoid long waits
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hmrc-vip-helpline-high-earners-nine-times-faster-8rdjfb99n (£££)
A tale of two headlines. PBers will be shocked to learn that ministers and senior civil servants get the VIP number.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/sacked-for-doing-my-job-immigration-chief-says-he-was-fired-on-teams-call-after-speaking-truth-to-power/ar-BB1iZ2L9?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=d423d8939e6545b9942bbab8754039ae&ei=10
It is hardly very good, just more infantilisation of our politics. Many of our politicians are transient and in the next parliament it will be different politicians but the same crap. As a society we are truly getting the politicians and society we deserve.
Facts versus opinion/guess.
There’s also the London Assembly elections to consider. Presumably Labour will make gains at the Tories’ expense. Could Labour achieve an overall majority? Could the Tories even cease to be the official opposition? There are opportunities for the Greens or LibDems to shine. I would guess Reform UK will also get at least one Assembly member.
Not that I want to live in London, or ever have done!
And good morning one and all. Rather misty here this morning.
And yes, the Conservatives can win nationwide without London. But it's not easy. In 2019, they won 21 London constituencies. Take those away, and BoJo's majority goes from 80 to 38. And that was a very good year for the Conservatives and a very bad year for everyone else.
As for it being "great"
It's a disposable comment for cheap laughs on social media and excites those who are titilated by such witless nonsense. It will go down a storm here with the people who think Bliar and Bad Enoch are the height of political satire.
PB travel boffs please decide
However I just asked the dude here serving my seat and he says this is a whole new Biz Class configuration for Air France. I am on one of the first ever flights. And it is bloody good
Rather private, endless excellent booze, good selection of movies, Michelin one-rosette food (if not quite Eva), this is the first European flyer that, to me, stands toe to toe with the Emirates/East Asian airlines
Definitely ahead of BA, miles better than Lufthansa/SwissAir etc
The French are going for it
Effectively a foregone conclusion. The turnout will be interesting.
The last pub in Ogmore by Sea was the Sea Lawns Hotel, bought and closed for redevelopment into old people's flats. The demolition couldn't pass planning as the Hotel was the last village. One Easter weekend it was bulldozed. The planning appeal went on for a year or two. The developer won his planning appeal eventually on the grounds that as it didn't exist anymore the demand that it shouldn't be developed because it was a public amenity was no longer relevant. Old people's flats sit on the footprint.
They have also been dollar and dimed for years and the last re-organization resulted in a lot of people leaving as the offices were merged into (badly located) regional offices
Air France pilots are under scrutiny after a series of incidents that have raised concerns over safety protocols on flights operated by the French flagship carrier, prompting aviation investigators to reprimand the airline last week.
The latest incident to come to light involved two pilots who were suspended after a physical fight in the cockpit of an A320 plane in flight from Geneva to Paris in June, a spokesman for Air France said Monday, confirming a report in the French newspaper La Tribune. He added that the flight continued on and landed safely.
The news of the fight has come amid broader concerns about flight safety at Air France. A few days ago, French investigators issued a report saying the airline’s pilots lacked rigor in following safety procedures.
Investigators said several recent incidents suggested “that a certain culture has been established among some Air France crews, favoring a propensity to underestimate the benefits of a strict application of procedures for safety.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/world/europe/air-france-safety.html
(Oh no, he isn’t!)
"mostly down to homophobia and transphobia amongst some socially conservative communities overrepresented in London demographics"
Whatever that means.
If there is anything dragging down British politics it isn't a few nicknames, it is a former deputy chair of the Conservative Party using language like this.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-deputy-chairman-lee-anderson-refuses-to-apologise-for-go-back-to-france-comment-but-says-government-has-failed-to-tackle-illegal-immigration-12936297
And this is Biz, not First
Speaking as the Knappers’ Gazette travel journo, this is an impressive offering, and the first time I’ve seen a European carrier try and match the rich Arabian/East Asian standard
Only imbeciles or Americans fly on American carriers
11:30?
But not quite - it was his opinion on Congressional powers over government debt obligations.
https://www.npr.org/2011/04/08/135247483/who-raised-the-stakes-in-government-shutdown
These days, when many people argue for a literal interpretation of the Constitution, the idea that government can't operate until Congress agrees on a spending bill seems obvious. But it wasn't obvious at all until 1980, when Benjamin Civiletti, Jimmy Carter's attorney general, said so.
"Attorney General Civiletti let the genie out of the bottle," said Charles Tiefer, a professor at the University of Baltimore Law School.
In the three decades before 1980, there were at least a half-dozen occasions when Congress failed to pass a spending bill on time. In each case, the routine functions of government just kept going, more or less on autopilot. Civiletti put a stop to that..
They go everywhere and I don't mean from Las Vegas to Luton Airport.
One is that the leakage to Reform is weaker for the Mayoral poll than the Westminster poll. What's causing that, I'm not sure.
The other is that I suspect the race has barely begun for normal voters and the effective demise of the Standard as a citywide paper weakens coverage a lot. I wouldn't be surprised if most voters couldn't describe Susan Hall yet.
Oh, and it’s Air France, which is good enough reason to choose another airline. I’ll perhaps fly with them in another lifetime, when they’ve changed their culture and stopped killing their customers.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26194047/labour-rachel-ellie-reeves-sisters-cabinet/
...As predicted in a very astute thread header back in January, might I add:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/11909/why-it-won-t-be-the-sun-wot-won-it-in-2024-politicalbetting-com#latest
I’d rather see Max Verstappen win another title than fly Air France.
BA needs to step up to match this
You are technically in breach of the regulations but because you pre-existed you are deemed in compliance. It’s important that they aren’t “rights” because deemed compliance can be withdrawn by regulatory action
The idea of a rebuild probably falls between two regulators and will be a negotiation. I hope the owners don’t try to exploit it
It sounds almost as bad as "the loudest sound you can hear at 30,000 feet is the ticking of the bomb under your seat".
So I bought the next available Biz Class seat. Which turns out to be Air France and rather nice
It is indeed fortunate that flint knapping pays well
The latest Chump is that his lawyers are trying to exclude many of the prosecution witnesses in the Stormy Daniels trial - quite funny.
10 minute vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JcrgpJ6ki0
From a quick dip into Wiki I see that RR was once the British women's under-14 chess champion. Has she moved onto 3D chess I wonder?
Be a bit more modest and self effacing when pointing out to PBers that you were right.
Worrying result for Biden in Michigan. He needs a ceasefire asap.
Post of the year @TSE assuming the irony was intended
I see the point of protection of history, and nobdy is suggesting tearing down St Paul's Cathedral to make room for another KFC. But really, don't we carry it a bit far? Shouldn't "probability that anyone will be disturbed by the change" be a major factor allowing exemptions if the probability is under say 5%?
Biden is clearly over 80%, and "uncommitted" seems to be not much higher than it was when Obama ran for reelection?
I'm interested in Kensington & Chelsea adopting a sane strategy wrt mobility infrastructure.
They just fail to recognise that multiculturalism has facilitated the implantation of less tolerant cultures
Perhaps I’m the only one who finds it tiresome and irrelevant to the purposes of this forum. But objectively, and for the benefit of attracting a younger newer audience, it turns it into a saddo’s facebook, which is also for people of a certain age.
One of the great lessons in life is to learn when it’s time to leave the stage.
That's the usual compromise.