Options
Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority – politicalbetting.com
Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority – politicalbetting.com
To illsustrate this thread I am showing how Snarkets define an overall maajority in its GE24 market,
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Yet for some reason people still persist in talking about "gains" and "mountains to climb" and so on. I suppose some myths are indestructible.
Which is slightly (but not much) better.
Even when we have a dramatic election with ~100 seats changing hands, the vast majority stick with the incumbent party.
All in all the names have a vague "if Dave Spart ran a competition for the under 8s to name the lines, then miraculously picked the worst names out of a hat" feel to them.
War is peace
Freedom is slavery
Ignorance is strength
Ship is submarine
"...The United Kingdom is one of those countries that is not really going to emerge into a post- American world because they've got some really interesting decisions to make and I'm pretty sure I know how it's going to go so backdrop. Two things first.
- First, economy. Uh the British system never really adapted to the end of Empire they they do all the high value added stuff and they import a lot of the raw materials and some of their base manufactured goods things that they're not very good at because they're good at the really high Precision stuff um and when the Empire ended and they joined Europe all they did was kind of switch one Empire for another and relied upon the European continent for things like food stuffs and wood products and automotive uh they never made the transition that all the other former Imperial Powers did and so when brexit happened they find themselves in a bit of a [indecipherable] so that's kind of the economic side of things.
- On the security side of things they are an island and islands are worried about one thing: other countries developing navies that might allow an invasion so they've always looked at the major powers of the Eurasian land mass with more than just suspicion outright fear and concern whether it's Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia or whatever Napoleon and on and on but that doesn't mean that they like non-military superpowers so when folks in the European Union start talking about ever closer Union and maybe having a common defense identity they get a little squeamish and they want to keep things within NATO where they've got veto power
So that's the economic that's the security. You play that forward to where we are right now and they're in a bit of a pickle demographically. The European Union is on its final legs, um, most of the major Powers especially Germany and Italy are going to be aging into obsolescence within a decade and most of the remaining countries within two. I don't mean to suggest that the UK has a super healthy demography but it is like the second healthiest within the union, so when the Brits started talking about brexit a decade ago I was like "Okay I can understand the conversation, uh getting a jump on what's next, leaving the sinking ship that is the economic aspect of the European Union, that makes some sense"...I would have gone for geographical names, so the Forest line for the Chingford branch (which ends at Epping Forest), the Thames line for the Richmond branch and so on...
A Conservative mayor has been expelled from the party after allegedly making antisemitic remarks, Sky News understands
Tory mayoral candidate Susan Hall's rival suggestions for the London Overground lines.
There is no incentive for people to do so - yep you may like the forthcoming tax cuts but you probably won’t like the required (but not formally announced) spending cuts - which means I can say that adult social care will be decimated and the Tory party can’t say otherwise
They need to sort out the Northern lines next – five lines masquerading as one, for reasons unknown.
https://content.tfl.gov.uk/tube-map-with-the-new-lo-names.pdf
The eadric line
The SeanT line
etc
The LDs seem to be putting up the white flag which might explain them being 25-1. However, the Cons at 66-1 seems very generous given the circumstances. The non-Con vote is splitting two and probably three ways so if the Con vote holds up then who knows. Ref UK were at the GE and might not take much more given a terrible candidate selection and the fact the Con candidate is not Asian this time. (I don't say that is right - I merely state the fact that some voters are influenced by such things).
I thought I was crazy thinking the Cons had an outside sniff here before the Lab campaign fell apart. Maybe I was. Maybe I still am. Its still very much an outsider's chance but at those odds...
I also think if the Labour party win a stonking majority and SKS holds it together something similar might happen anyway, just because it will be a party with a huge majority but a pretty unpopular PM. I think a lot of people will go "good, we got rid of the Tories, but I don't want to give SKS a honeymoon period" and that could similarly shake up politics as we would expect it.
Great Uncle Bulgaria Line
Tobermory Line
Tomsk Line
Orinoco Line
Wellington Line
Madam Cholet Line
It appears AI can't do hands.
Or wings.
Or engines.
Or anything aeronautcally symmetrical.
https://hushkit.net/2024/02/15/ai-attempts-to-draw-british-aircraft-and-we-spit-out-our-tea-in-awe-at-these-magnificent-obscenities/
Personally I can't see it.
...but here we are seven years after brexit and the Brits are still
trying to figure out what brexit means. We still don't have a meaningful policy
for how they should go into the new world and they really only have two choices
...Now when the Johnson Administration in Britain came over to talk to Donald
Trump's Administration about a trade deal and they found out what the
conditions would be they walked away. And then the next government came in and did the same thing and walked away (or was it Teresa May?). Anyway there were two back-to-back and so the Brits right now are in this nether world where they kind of quietly admit to themselves that, in order to find a future that has some degree of economic functionality, they have to get into bed with their kids and accept all the demands and the hit to their economy will be real and the hit
to their ego will be massive...
...But the alternatives (trying to build an alternate system or maybe going back to the EU) neither of those are long-term solutions that are very functional, so really what we're doing is going through the paces until the Brits admit the obvious, and when that happens Britain will lose the thing that it values the most: its freedom to act, its agency. It will become a subsidiary of the American system for Better or For Worse and while that will be horrible for the British mindset it is the best game in town from both an economic and a security point of view and in time I have no doubt that that is where the Brits will end up, so stiff upper lip...
They find London baffling enough at the best of times – witness the amount who still queue up to buy tickets despite there being no need to do so.
T
R
U
S
S
"It appears AI can't do hands..."
And that's because, despite whatever @Leon tries to tell us, these things have zero intelligence. They attempt to mimic it.
But these image generators can be useful if carefully curated, or just for LOLing at what some people thing is 'intelligent'...
The Rochdale incident also indicates the possibility of a 2017 style shift of opinion, this time away from Labour; what will be an abysmally dirty campaign from the right hasn't really started yet. No doubt there are lots of Rochdales in the Tory central office safe.
The Tory votes Labour needs are mostly from centrists who are habitually highly respectful of the Jewish community. This is still in place. (Though less so to the Israel government).
Now it's possible that Campaign Trail Rishi will galvanise the public the way that Campaign Trail Magic Grandpa did. Anything that's a future event is possible...
...but it's not very probable, is it?
https://citymonitor.ai/transport/change-london-tube-and-rail-maps-underground-overground-tube
Full story here:
https://www.londonreconnections.com/2013/we-need-to-talk-about-camden/
Thanks for transcript btw.
It seems to me that a healthy majority, like democracy, is the worst form of government - except for all others.
I believe they call this a Freudian slip
https://x.com/mrwinmarshall/status/1758110379731751158?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So they whipped up an immigration panic and promised unicorns for all to get just enough people to shoot themselves in the foot.
Once again, I want to point out the possibilities for an ever-closer UK-Canada union.
Sadiq Khan.
If you’re going to give out random names then auction them off. Loads of cities, including mine, do this, the big money is for the destination and interchange stations, or companies buying the station nearest their own business.
Witness food prices.
I just think he’s a bit of a twit. His instincts are just off. Kind of a leftist Sunak.
You can't have it both ways.
Why isn't affordable Aussie and Kiwi good enough for us without any tariffs?
ChatGPT
Sure, here are five "woke" names for railways:
1. Unity Line
2. Harmony Express
3. Diversity Junction
4. Inclusion Railway
5. Equity Route
IMO if we can't re-join the EU, we'll have to revitalise the commonwealth. Become an hub of investment, trade and education to countries that struggle in global markets. To me this sounds preferable than suffering what we must under an American strong man.
https://www.alzheimersresearchuk.org
Actually Alzheimer's has seen quite a big increase in research in the last few years, since the first (albeit only marginally effective) therapies were approved.
There's a US list of some of the clinical trials here:
https://www.nia.nih.gov/research/ongoing-AD-trials
• Night Tube
• Crossrail
• Ulez
• Ulez-X
But, his railway-naming skills leave a lot to be desired.
_____
I should add. The UK could, and I think is quite likely to allow different US standards of goods to come into the UK. What I meant was, what is in it for the US so that it offers something of value in return?
It’s possible, though I defer to Nick Palmer, that welfare standards are expected to decline too.
Lab: 26%
Galloway: 22%
LD: 17%
Con: 15%
RefUK: 10%
Green: 5%
Others: 5%
What odds should that imply? I dunno. But I've done a little spreadsheet: I've taken the above as my central estimate, then given each party a random result from half to double of their score above, and repeated it 10,000 times. (10,000 chosen because running it 10,000 times seems to bring the variance down to a level of no more than a couple of percentage points - no matter how often you do the exercise, Lab never win more than 56% of times or less than 54%).
This gives implied probabilities of:
Lab 54-56%
Galloway 30-32%
LD: 9-10%
Con: 4-5%
Ref: <1%
Others: 0%
On this basis I have Lab and LD as value.
But of course that only works if you think the the starting points are about right!
My first post was on the first anniversary of the Site's formation. It has been a big part of my life ever since. For a decade or so it helped keep me solvent and it has always been a great source of fun and enlightenment. Over the years I got to know Mike well enough to make me wonder now whether it might be time for me to take my coat. To stay feels a bit like lingering at a party after the host has had to retire to bed unwell. He wouldn't mind, I'm sure, but somehow it doesn't feel right to keep posting away while OGH and My Good Friend is incapacitated.
I'll think it over but you'll understand if I go a bit quiet. If any of you have views on the matter that you'd like to share privately, you know where to find me.
Atb.
PtP
Tangentially on topic, Paris have announced a doubling of their Metro system fares during the Olympics, but with exceptions for the monthly and annual passes used by residents.
https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2023/12/01/paris-metro-tickets-to-double-in-price-during-2024-olympics/
Food inflation has been seen across the globe, so I'm sceptical.
There's nothing wrong with animal welfare in New Zealand etc, I'd be quite delighted to see non-tariff barriers that are falsely portrayed as "welfare" issues to be abolished.
Just wondering whether the light-hearted interest in the UK joining the US is reciprocated?
Battersea line for the western half, City line for the eastern half.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/brexit-blame-third-britains-food-bill-rise-researchers-say-2023-05-25/
Better names and themes than Khan's monstrosities...