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Has Trump ensured the UK rejoins the EU? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,102
    edited February 14

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,126

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Good question. I’d imagine there would be a small majority in favour of retaining them. But, fuck it. Leaders gotta lead. Ban the fucking things Biden and let Trump argue against it.
    I would guess the Democrats would be 60 - 40 in favour and the Republicans would be 90 - 10 against.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,331

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.
    Unless I’m misreading that I can’t see a survey of the general public that isn’t filtered by party ID.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,109
    edited February 14

    Ghedebrav said:

    Lord Cameron is doing a brilliant job, he's getting called out by MTG, which means he is doing the right thing.

    Marjorie Taylor Greene responds to British Foreign Secretary David Cameron urging Congress to pass Ukraine aid:

    “Frankly, he can kiss my ass.”

    MTG is a national embarrassment.


    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1757856690244862375

    I am voting and campaigning Tory at the next election to keep Cameron as Foreign Secretary.

    He can only dream of getting called out by Putin himself like Boris was.
    It would be quite interesting if David Cameron took her up on her offer, though.
    Lady Cameron might have a few things to say about that.
    Lord Balloonhead was seriously punching when he shacked up with Sam.
    As somebody who has persuaded not one but two women out of my league to marry me, I am glad these things happen.
    Whoa! You're a bigamist?!!
    Was it the money, the sex, or the power that was the persuader?

    :innocent:

    Of course no one was punching as literally above their status as the former Shpeaker, Big Bad John.

    Channelling vaping Zebedee - time for bed.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,331

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Good question. I’d imagine there would be a small majority in favour of retaining them. But, fuck it. Leaders gotta lead. Ban the fucking things Biden and let Trump argue against it.
    I would guess the Democrats would be 60 - 40 in favour and the Republicans would be 90 - 10 against.
    And what about independents? I just want to see US public opinion regardless of political affiliation
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,331

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
    Fair points. But, he could make it a campaign issue. And he should.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish Nationalists have found the latest controversy that they want to concentrate on. Apparently those students of Scottish history have discovered that the cafe in Edinburgh Castle is called the Redcoat Cafe. In fact it has been called that since it opened nearly 30 years ago.

    Clearly changing this calumny is now a priority for the Scottish Government.

    I feel somewhat ambivalent. When they are wasting time on this nonsense at least they are not screwing up something more important.

    We Scots are thinking of opening a cafe in London called “You got fucked at Bannockburn”. I assume you will all be in favour.
    "In the Year of our Lord 1314, patriots of Scotland - starving and outnumbered - charged the fields of Bannockburn. They fought like warrior poets; they fought like Scotsmen, and won their freedom."
    I remember that line, and every time I hear it I shout out "what does a warrior poet fight like?" Are quills involved? Do they take inkwells into battle? Silly line.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,544
    edited February 15
    Goodness me.

    "Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    Azhar Ali has come back fighting with a similar message to George Galloway:

    "Sacked by Starmer for speaking on Palestine. It's time to teach Starmer a lesson in Rochdale. Vote Azhar Ali""

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1757905765375844851
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,102

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.
    Unless I’m misreading that I can’t see a survey of the general public that isn’t filtered by party ID.
    “64% of Americans support stricter gun control laws, 36% oppose it. 54% of Americans believe that such laws will reduce the number of deaths and killings of citizens with firearms, and 58% believe that the government can take effective action to prevent mass shootings. 36% believe the presence of guns makes public places less safe, 32% believe allowing gun owners to carry their guns in public makes those places safer, and 32% believe it makes no difference. The results had a margin for error of plus or minus 3.7 points.” - CNN poll from 2023

    The problem is that the gun rights lobby is large and well organised. Politicians who are perceived as anti-gun find their opponents offered massive financial support.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,109

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
    Unfortunately I don't see even Mr Chump post-Downfall if it arrives generating a 2/3 Majority for the Democrats in both houses, and majorities in 3/4 of State Legislatures.

    Even for a rational overhaul of US firearms law.

  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,109
    edited February 15
    MattW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Lord Cameron is doing a brilliant job, he's getting called out by MTG, which means he is doing the right thing.

    Marjorie Taylor Greene responds to British Foreign Secretary David Cameron urging Congress to pass Ukraine aid:

    “Frankly, he can kiss my ass.”

    MTG is a national embarrassment.


    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1757856690244862375

    I am voting and campaigning Tory at the next election to keep Cameron as Foreign Secretary.

    He can only dream of getting called out by Putin himself like Boris was.
    It would be quite interesting if David Cameron took her up on her offer, though.
    Lady Cameron might have a few things to say about that.
    Lord Balloonhead was seriously punching when he shacked up with Sam.
    As somebody who has persuaded not one but two women out of my league to marry me, I am glad these things happen.
    Whoa! You're a bigamist?!!
    Was it the money, the sex, or the power that was the persuader?

    :innocent:

    Of course no one was punching as literally above their status as the former Shpeaker, Big Bad John.

    Channelling vaping Zebedee - time for bed.
    I see that Texas Republicans have also put out a video supporting Senator Big John, in addition to the BBC Daily Politics.

    The tape is more than 30s long, so it can't be an advert.

    https://youtu.be/0vcB7uCqdFk
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,331

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.
    Unless I’m misreading that I can’t see a survey of the general public that isn’t filtered by party ID.
    “64% of Americans support stricter gun control laws, 36% oppose it. 54% of Americans believe that such laws will reduce the number of deaths and killings of citizens with firearms, and 58% believe that the government can take effective action to prevent mass shootings. 36% believe the presence of guns makes public places less safe, 32% believe allowing gun owners to carry their guns in public makes those places safer, and 32% believe it makes no difference. The results had a margin for error of plus or minus 3.7 points.” - CNN poll from 2023

    The problem is that the gun rights lobby is large and well organised. Politicians who are perceived as anti-gun find their opponents offered massive financial support.
    Okay. So do 64% of the US public support banning the fucking things?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,331
    Andy_JS said:

    Goodness me.

    "Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    Azhar Ali has come back fighting with a similar message to George Galloway:

    "Sacked by Starmer for speaking on Palestine. It's time to teach Starmer a lesson in Rochdale. Vote Azhar Ali""

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1757905765375844851

    Looks like Starmer was right to sack him
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    No thread on the Mirror MRP?

    Both Wight seats turn red...
    Starmer! (Dog for scale).
    What's so surprising about landslides, with or without canids? Only to be expected with the combination of all this weather and the nature of IoW geology.
    Ventnor lost in a landslide.
    "...no escape from reality..."
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,477

    Andy_JS said:

    Goodness me.

    "Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    Azhar Ali has come back fighting with a similar message to George Galloway:

    "Sacked by Starmer for speaking on Palestine. It's time to teach Starmer a lesson in Rochdale. Vote Azhar Ali""

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1757905765375844851

    Looks like Starmer was right to sack him
    It will be a problem if any of the local party come out on his side.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,331
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
    Unfortunately I don't see even Mr Chump post-Downfall if it arrives generating a 2/3 Majority for the Democrats in both houses, and majorities in 3/4 of State Legislatures.

    Even for a rational overhaul of US firearms law.

    Yes, but so what? Campaign on banning the fucking things and win a mandate to change the constitution (if necessary).
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,331

    Andy_JS said:

    Goodness me.

    "Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    Azhar Ali has come back fighting with a similar message to George Galloway:

    "Sacked by Starmer for speaking on Palestine. It's time to teach Starmer a lesson in Rochdale. Vote Azhar Ali""

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1757905765375844851

    Looks like Starmer was right to sack him
    It will be a problem if any of the local party come out on his side.
    🤣 Who do you want to win the general election, William?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,477

    Andy_JS said:

    Goodness me.

    "Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    Azhar Ali has come back fighting with a similar message to George Galloway:

    "Sacked by Starmer for speaking on Palestine. It's time to teach Starmer a lesson in Rochdale. Vote Azhar Ali""

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1757905765375844851

    Looks like Starmer was right to sack him
    It will be a problem if any of the local party come out on his side.
    🤣 Who do you want to win the general election, William?
    None of the above. :)
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,681

    Andy_JS said:

    Goodness me.

    "Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    Azhar Ali has come back fighting with a similar message to George Galloway:

    "Sacked by Starmer for speaking on Palestine. It's time to teach Starmer a lesson in Rochdale. Vote Azhar Ali""

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1757905765375844851

    Looks like Starmer was right to sack him
    It will be a problem if any of the local party come out on his side.
    🤣 Who do you want to win the general election, William?
    A Euro- not-Euro coalition of Putin-Trump-Faragists. I think that covers every base.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,223
    edited February 15
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish Nationalists have found the latest controversy that they want to concentrate on. Apparently those students of Scottish history have discovered that the cafe in Edinburgh Castle is called the Redcoat Cafe. In fact it has been called that since it opened nearly 30 years ago.

    Clearly changing this calumny is now a priority for the Scottish Government.

    I feel somewhat ambivalent. When they are wasting time on this nonsense at least they are not screwing up something more important.

    We Scots are thinking of opening a cafe in London called “You got fucked at Bannockburn”. I assume you will all be in favour.
    "In the Year of our Lord 1314, patriots of Scotland - starving and outnumbered - charged the fields of Bannockburn. They fought like warrior poets; they fought like Scotsmen, and won their freedom."
    I remember that line, and every time I hear it I shout out "what does a warrior poet fight like?" Are quills involved? Do they take inkwells into battle? Silly line.
    Perhaps they recite rhymes:

    Roses are red,
    Violets are blue,
    I'll cut off your head,
    And disembowel you...
  • Options
    theProletheProle Posts: 958
    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Isn't the problem approximately this:
    Virtually everyone in the USA has a gun or ten, plus enough ammo to start a small war.
    There is no register of guns, and thus who has got what is pretty much unknown.
    If you banned guns tomorrow, some would get handed in, and plenty wouldn't.
    There would be a strong inverse relationship between those who hand in their guns and those whom you would most like to disarm.
    Therefore, banning guns probably actually causes some kinds of gun crime to increase - e.g. undertaking armed robbery is much less risky if you are sure the target is unarmed.

    It's not clear that turning the USA from a place where everyone is armed to the teeth into a place where only the criminals and the right wing nutjobs are armed is actually much of an improvement.

    Note - I'm not against gun control; I wouldn't want a US style free for all here; I'm just not convinced there is a workable way to change the status quo in the US, given where they are now. In some ways it's rather like the problems we have with teenagers stabbing each other with carving knives; it's basically impossible to prevent teenagers from accessing carving knives, the best we can do is make carrying one without a valid reason an offence and do a lot of stop and search type activity in problem areas; and even then a kid stabs another every week or so.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,223

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
    Unfortunately I don't see even Mr Chump post-Downfall if it arrives generating a 2/3 Majority for the Democrats in both houses, and majorities in 3/4 of State Legislatures.

    Even for a rational overhaul of US firearms law.

    Yes, but so what? Campaign on banning the fucking things and win a mandate to change the constitution (if necessary).
    No need to change the Constitution. Reinstate the ban on automatic weapons, require proper licensing.

    Or best of all; make gun manufacturers legally liable the same as all other products, for death and injury caused by misuse.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,102

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.
    Unless I’m misreading that I can’t see a survey of the general public that isn’t filtered by party ID.
    “64% of Americans support stricter gun control laws, 36% oppose it. 54% of Americans believe that such laws will reduce the number of deaths and killings of citizens with firearms, and 58% believe that the government can take effective action to prevent mass shootings. 36% believe the presence of guns makes public places less safe, 32% believe allowing gun owners to carry their guns in public makes those places safer, and 32% believe it makes no difference. The results had a margin for error of plus or minus 3.7 points.” - CNN poll from 2023

    The problem is that the gun rights lobby is large and well organised. Politicians who are perceived as anti-gun find their opponents offered massive financial support.
    Okay. So do 64% of the US public support banning the fucking things?
    No - they support more gun control.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,102
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
    Unfortunately I don't see even Mr Chump post-Downfall if it arrives generating a 2/3 Majority for the Democrats in both houses, and majorities in 3/4 of State Legislatures.

    Even for a rational overhaul of US firearms law.

    Yes, but so what? Campaign on banning the fucking things and win a mandate to change the constitution (if necessary).
    No need to change the Constitution. Reinstate the ban on automatic weapons, require proper licensing.

    Or best of all; make gun manufacturers legally liable the same as all other products, for death and injury caused by misuse.
    Fully automatic weapons are heavily regulated and basically don’t feature in crime in the US. Despite every other movie…

    Semi automatic weapons are where the real issues are.

    Going after the gun manufacturers runs into legal problems. Mainly to do with definitions of proper use, IIRC.
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.
    Unless I’m misreading that I can’t see a survey of the general public that isn’t filtered by party ID.
    “64% of Americans support stricter gun control laws, 36% oppose it. 54% of Americans believe that such laws will reduce the number of deaths and killings of citizens with firearms, and 58% believe that the government can take effective action to prevent mass shootings. 36% believe the presence of guns makes public places less safe, 32% believe allowing gun owners to carry their guns in public makes those places safer, and 32% believe it makes no difference. The results had a margin for error of plus or minus 3.7 points.” - CNN poll from 2023

    The problem is that the gun rights lobby is large and well organised. Politicians who are perceived as anti-gun find their opponents offered massive financial support.
    Okay. So do 64% of the US public support banning the fucking things?
    No. They only support tighter controls. The sort of basic sensible stuff any reasonble person would expect. Background criminal and mental health checks, cooling off periods, age limits and registration.

    But even some of those (registration) struggle to get a majority. There is simply not the appetite in the US for a ban.
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
    Fair points. But, he could make it a campaign issue. And he should.
    Even if it were a campaign promise it is not something he can fulfil without changing the constiutution and the power to do that does not rest in his hands.
  • Options

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?
    CNN reporting it as a Russian military weapon for nearly an hour
    OK can I change my guess to space, then, and some sort of satellite killer?
    Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapon into space, US fears
    Joe Biden urged to declassify intelligence on the operation, which could be used to target Western satellites

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/russia-is-preparing-to-launch-nuclear-weapon-into-space/ (£££)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.
    Unless I’m misreading that I can’t see a survey of the general public that isn’t filtered by party ID.
    “64% of Americans support stricter gun control laws, 36% oppose it. 54% of Americans believe that such laws will reduce the number of deaths and killings of citizens with firearms, and 58% believe that the government can take effective action to prevent mass shootings. 36% believe the presence of guns makes public places less safe, 32% believe allowing gun owners to carry their guns in public makes those places safer, and 32% believe it makes no difference. The results had a margin for error of plus or minus 3.7 points.” - CNN poll from 2023

    The problem is that the gun rights lobby is large and well organised. Politicians who are perceived as anti-gun find their opponents offered massive financial support.
    Okay. So do 64% of the US public support banning the fucking things?
    No. They only support tighter controls. The sort of basic sensible stuff any reasonble person would expect. Background criminal and mental health checks, cooling off periods, age limits and registration.

    But even some of those (registration) struggle to get a majority. There is simply not the appetite in the US for a ban.
    It’s also mostly state rather than federal legislation, which incorporate most of the above to some degree already. There’s a few stories of journalists who thought they could just turn up at a gun shop in the middle of nowhere and walk away with a firearm.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-gun-buying-review-virginia-store-2019-8?op=1
  • Options
    UK antisemitic hate incidents hit new high in 2023, says charity
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68288727
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,164

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?
    CNN reporting it as a Russian military weapon for nearly an hour
    OK can I change my guess to space, then, and some sort of satellite killer?
    Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapon into space, US fears
    Joe Biden urged to declassify intelligence on the operation, which could be used to target Western satellites

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/russia-is-preparing-to-launch-nuclear-weapon-into-space/ (£££)
    Cold-war-style fearmongering to make it easier for 3 Republicans to vote for the discharge petition, good to see they've still got it.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339

    UK antisemitic hate incidents hit new high in 2023, says charity
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68288727

    Online abuse is translating into real-life abuse. We have lost a sense of boundaries and distance, where events over there to somebody else are interpreted as events over here to us. When a candidate MP thinks that fighting for Hamas is more important than his constituents, something is badly wrong. People should feel free to practice their religion and have allowances made for that, but that requires tolerance and that has been mocked to death. How long before somebody says that this antisemitic uptick is just because more are reported, or what about the victims on the other side? The Internet has bought us all together, and we do what we always do when we are bought into close proximity: kill each other. Damnation, this is not good.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?
    CNN reporting it as a Russian military weapon for nearly an hour
    OK can I change my guess to space, then, and some sort of satellite killer?
    Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapon into space, US fears
    Joe Biden urged to declassify intelligence on the operation, which could be used to target Western satellites

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/russia-is-preparing-to-launch-nuclear-weapon-into-space/ (£££)
    Here's a new acronym for y'all: FOBS. Fractional Orbital Bombardment System.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jrZ933P-Iw
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,699

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
    Fair points. But, he could make it a campaign issue. And he should.
    As Starmer should, a wealth tax, to rebuild and restructure the country.

    But will he, hell?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?
    CNN reporting it as a Russian military weapon for nearly an hour
    OK can I change my guess to space, then, and some sort of satellite killer?
    Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapon into space, US fears
    Joe Biden urged to declassify intelligence on the operation, which could be used to target Western satellites

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/russia-is-preparing-to-launch-nuclear-weapon-into-space/ (£££)
    That’s rather terrifying.

    Thankfully there’s been a recent Western programme to put thousands of small communications satellites in orbit, which would be all that impossible for an adversary to take out. The somewhat hot-headed CEO of the company involved, has also been put firmly in his place when it comes to military use of the technology.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    The issue is that Biden can't just change the constitution and almost certainly doesn't have the votes in the House or the States to do so. And to be honest for all that I agree with your aims, setting the precedent that the President can change the constitution more easily is not something I would fancy doing with the prospect of Trump being back in the White House in less than a year.
    Fair points. But, he could make it a campaign issue. And he should.
    As Starmer should, a wealth tax, to rebuild and restructure the country.

    But will he, hell?
    The problem with a ‘weath tax’, is that in order to propose one you first need to define the term.

    The vast majority of people have little ‘weath’ bar the roof over their head and their pension fund, and anything not aimed at a significant proportion of the population is likely to both raise very little and be mostly avoided by billionaires.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,423
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?
    CNN reporting it as a Russian military weapon for nearly an hour
    OK can I change my guess to space, then, and some sort of satellite killer?
    Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapon into space, US fears
    Joe Biden urged to declassify intelligence on the operation, which could be used to target Western satellites

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/russia-is-preparing-to-launch-nuclear-weapon-into-space/ (£££)
    That’s rather terrifying.

    Thankfully there’s been a recent Western programme to put thousands of small communications satellites in orbit, which would be all that impossible for an adversary to take out. The somewhat hot-headed CEO of the company involved, has also been put firmly in his place when it comes to military use of the technology.
    Yet Russia is now using Starlink in its petty war of aggression, and MuskyBaby has said nothing that I've heard. When Ukraine tried to use Starlink, it was, according to Musk, unacceptable. Until he was put in his place.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,027
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish Nationalists have found the latest controversy that they want to concentrate on. Apparently those students of Scottish history have discovered that the cafe in Edinburgh Castle is called the Redcoat Cafe. In fact it has been called that since it opened nearly 30 years ago.

    Clearly changing this calumny is now a priority for the Scottish Government.

    I feel somewhat ambivalent. When they are wasting time on this nonsense at least they are not screwing up something more important.

    We Scots are thinking of opening a cafe in London called “You got fucked at Bannockburn”. I assume you will all be in favour.
    "In the Year of our Lord 1314, patriots of Scotland - starving and outnumbered - charged the fields of Bannockburn. They fought like warrior poets; they fought like Scotsmen, and won their freedom."
    I remember that line, and every time I hear it I shout out "what does a warrior poet fight like?" Are quills involved? Do they take inkwells into battle? Silly line.
    Perhaps they recite rhymes:

    Roses are red,
    Violets are blue,
    I'll cut off your head,
    And disembowel you...
    Roses are redish
    Violets are bluish
    If it wasn't for Christmas
    We'd all be Jewish
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,518

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Good question. I’d imagine there would be a small majority in favour of retaining them. But, fuck it. Leaders gotta lead. Ban the fucking things Biden and let Trump argue against it.
    They just get the SC to rule the ban unconstitutional.
    Without the support of a supermajority no such ban is possible.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,518

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Plenty

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_on_gun_control_in_the_United_States

    Changing the constitution requires 2/3rd majorities in both House and Senate and 3/4 of the states.
    Unless I’m misreading that I can’t see a survey of the general public that isn’t filtered by party ID.
    “64% of Americans support stricter gun control laws, 36% oppose it. 54% of Americans believe that such laws will reduce the number of deaths and killings of citizens with firearms, and 58% believe that the government can take effective action to prevent mass shootings. 36% believe the presence of guns makes public places less safe, 32% believe allowing gun owners to carry their guns in public makes those places safer, and 32% believe it makes no difference. The results had a margin for error of plus or minus 3.7 points.” - CNN poll from 2023

    The problem is that the gun rights lobby is large and well organised. Politicians who are perceived as anti-gun find their opponents offered massive financial support.
    It's slowly changing
    The NRA is quite likely to go bust, for example.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,518

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?
    CNN reporting it as a Russian military weapon for nearly an hour
    OK can I change my guess to space, then, and some sort of satellite killer?
    Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapon into space, US fears
    Joe Biden urged to declassify intelligence on the operation, which could be used to target Western satellites

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/russia-is-preparing-to-launch-nuclear-weapon-into-space/ (£££)
    Cold-war-style fearmongering to make it easier for 3 Republicans to vote for the discharge petition, good to see they've still got it.
    Unlikely to happen.

    Last year, 100% of House Republicans rejected a discharge petition to tackle the debt limit—when a global economic meltdown was at stake. Rep Fitzpatrick refused to sign one for *his own* gun bill. This is simply not a tool Rs are willing to use. Don’t expect it for Ukraine aid.
    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1757948890794344697

    They won't even do it for things they *really* want. The attachment to procedures for blocking legislation is extreme.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,699
    10C out there and well before sunrise; a warm day in store, sunshine tbc
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,699
    Mirror and the i: Tories face being reduced to 80 seats, poll of 18,000 voters suggests

    Express: Labour meltdown as lead over Tories plummets by 'significant drop' in new poll nightmare
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,518
    edited February 15
    UK could contribute to nuclear shield if Trump wins, suggests German minister
    Comments draw Britain into debate about European security without US providing bulk of Nato’s nuclear deterrent

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent
    ..In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he wrote: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Great Britain are already making a contribution to the security of our alliance. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has made various offers of cooperation. We should understand Donald Trump’s recent statements as a call to further rethink this element of European security under the umbrella of Nato.

    “The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”..
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,518
    Japan loses crown as world’s third-largest economy after it slips into recession
    Fall in rank below Germany has been attributed to a weak yen and country’s ageing, shrinking population
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/japan-recession-economy-falls-behind-germany-worlds-largest
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,518
    Finely poised at lunch.
    ...Mark Wood and Tom Hartley reduced India to 33-3, and it would have been 47-4 had Joe Root caught Rohit Sharma at slip. Instead Rohit and Ravindra Jadeja batted with increasing authority in an unbroken partnership of 60...
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,423
    A good (*) take on the oh-my-god-we're-all-going-to-die nukes-in-space drama:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOdTfkJojK4

    TL;DR: it's not much to worry about; not a space EMP; not a FOBS. It's more Republicans weaponising intelligence against Ukraine.

    (*) Good, because I agree with it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    Nigelb said:

    UK could contribute to nuclear shield if Trump wins, suggests German minister
    Comments draw Britain into debate about European security without US providing bulk of Nato’s nuclear deterrent

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent
    ..In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he wrote: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Great Britain are already making a contribution to the security of our alliance. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has made various offers of cooperation. We should understand Donald Trump’s recent statements as a call to further rethink this element of European security under the umbrella of Nato.

    “The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”..

    Likesay, what do we get in return?

    A nice sunny chunk of Europe?

    Germans basically own Majorca. Let's ask for that, plus Malta back, plus Trieste and its hinterland
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,423
    Intuitive Machines have just launched a lander to the Moon's south pole.

    This is interesting for me, because I followed Armadillo Aerospace, a Doom-laden aerospace company developing a lander. They closed shop seven years ago, but the IM lander is based on AA's tech.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-68286237
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    UK could contribute to nuclear shield if Trump wins, suggests German minister
    Comments draw Britain into debate about European security without US providing bulk of Nato’s nuclear deterrent

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent
    ..In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he wrote: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Great Britain are already making a contribution to the security of our alliance. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has made various offers of cooperation. We should understand Donald Trump’s recent statements as a call to further rethink this element of European security under the umbrella of Nato.

    “The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”..

    Likesay, what do we get in return?

    A nice sunny chunk of Europe?

    Germans basically own Majorca. Let's ask for that, plus Malta back, plus Trieste and its hinterland
    It's being reported on WDR 2 that in return Britain has asked for German troops to help subjugate Scotland in the event of an unauthorised independence referendum.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,268
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    UK could contribute to nuclear shield if Trump wins, suggests German minister
    Comments draw Britain into debate about European security without US providing bulk of Nato’s nuclear deterrent

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent
    ..In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he wrote: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Great Britain are already making a contribution to the security of our alliance. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has made various offers of cooperation. We should understand Donald Trump’s recent statements as a call to further rethink this element of European security under the umbrella of Nato.

    “The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”..

    Likesay, what do we get in return?

    A nice sunny chunk of Europe?

    Germans basically own Majorca. Let's ask for that, plus Malta back, plus Trieste and its hinterland
    It's being reported on WDR 2 that in return Britain has asked for German troops to help subjugate Scotland in the event of an unauthorised independence referendum.
    We'll do them like Legio IX
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?
    CNN reporting it as a Russian military weapon for nearly an hour
    OK can I change my guess to space, then, and some sort of satellite killer?
    Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapon into space, US fears
    Joe Biden urged to declassify intelligence on the operation, which could be used to target Western satellites

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/russia-is-preparing-to-launch-nuclear-weapon-into-space/ (£££)
    That’s rather terrifying.

    Thankfully there’s been a recent Western programme to put thousands of small communications satellites in orbit, which would be all that impossible for an adversary to take out. The somewhat hot-headed CEO of the company involved, has also been put firmly in his place when it comes to military use of the technology.
    Yet Russia is now using Starlink in its petty war of aggression, and MuskyBaby has said nothing that I've heard. When Ukraine tried to use Starlink, it was, according to Musk, unacceptable. Until he was put in his place.
    Any evidence for them being used by the Russians? Last I heard they were pretty good at tracking ‘stolen’ units and sending the location to Storm Shadow command.

    Starlink tried to portray them as purely for civilian use, then the US military bought up hundreds of them and said clearly that it was in SpaceX’s interest to not interfere in their use.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,193
    edited February 15
    UK in recession.
    0.3% drop in GDP in fourth quarter.
    0.1 % growth in all of 2023.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,268
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    UK could contribute to nuclear shield if Trump wins, suggests German minister
    Comments draw Britain into debate about European security without US providing bulk of Nato’s nuclear deterrent

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent
    ..In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he wrote: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Great Britain are already making a contribution to the security of our alliance. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has made various offers of cooperation. We should understand Donald Trump’s recent statements as a call to further rethink this element of European security under the umbrella of Nato.

    “The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”..

    Likesay, what do we get in return?

    A nice sunny chunk of Europe?

    Germans basically own Majorca. Let's ask for that, plus Malta back, plus Trieste and its hinterland
    Customs Union
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,268
    RECESSION
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    Britain is finished. Fold the tents, pack yer bags, it's over
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    Bank of England will no doubt want to see a depression befor interest rates fall
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,806
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    UK could contribute to nuclear shield if Trump wins, suggests German minister
    Comments draw Britain into debate about European security without US providing bulk of Nato’s nuclear deterrent

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent
    ..In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he wrote: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Great Britain are already making a contribution to the security of our alliance. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has made various offers of cooperation. We should understand Donald Trump’s recent statements as a call to further rethink this element of European security under the umbrella of Nato.

    “The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”..

    Likesay, what do we get in return?

    A nice sunny chunk of Europe?

    Germans basically own Majorca. Let's ask for that, plus Malta back, plus Trieste and its hinterland
    It's being reported on WDR 2 that in return Britain has asked for German troops to help subjugate Scotland in the event of an unauthorised independence referendum.
    Improbable.

    You get no tanks from a German.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,681
    edited February 15
    ...
    dixiedean said:

    UK in recession.
    0.3% drop in GDP in fourth quarter.
    0.1 % growth in all of 2023.

    So growth up 0.1% over 2023. Rishi can claim the win, another of the 5 pledges smashed out of the park!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,423
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?

    Nigelb said:

    Top Intel Committee Dem @jahimes tells us this is not something to panic about. Says it is a "serious" issue that Turner right to focus on, but long-standing.
    https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770

    Iran nukes ?
    Chinese hypersonics ?

    Cyber probably. Chinese/Russian/Iranian hackers? Deep fakes in the forthcoming US election?
    CNN reporting it as a Russian military weapon for nearly an hour
    OK can I change my guess to space, then, and some sort of satellite killer?
    Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapon into space, US fears
    Joe Biden urged to declassify intelligence on the operation, which could be used to target Western satellites

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/russia-is-preparing-to-launch-nuclear-weapon-into-space/ (£££)
    That’s rather terrifying.

    Thankfully there’s been a recent Western programme to put thousands of small communications satellites in orbit, which would be all that impossible for an adversary to take out. The somewhat hot-headed CEO of the company involved, has also been put firmly in his place when it comes to military use of the technology.
    Yet Russia is now using Starlink in its petty war of aggression, and MuskyBaby has said nothing that I've heard. When Ukraine tried to use Starlink, it was, according to Musk, unacceptable. Until he was put in his place.
    Any evidence for them being used by the Russians? Last I heard they were pretty good at tracking ‘stolen’ units and sending the location to Storm Shadow command.

    Starlink tried to portray them as purely for civilian use, then the US military bought up hundreds of them and said clearly that it was in SpaceX’s interest to not interfere in their use.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/12/ukraine-accuses-russia-forces-using-elon-musk-starlink
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-forces-obtaining-musks-starlink-via-third-countries-2024-02-12/
    https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-buying-musks-starlink-systems-in-arab-countries-ukraine-says-a0185f55

    etc.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    edited February 15

    ...

    dixiedean said:

    UK in recession.
    0.3% drop in GDP in fourth quarter.
    0.1 % growth in all of 2023.

    So growth up 0.1% over 2023. Rishi can claim a win, another of the 5 pledges smashed out of the park!
    Also, do the maths

    We achieved 0.1% growth WHILE IMPORTING 700,000 MIGRANTS (plus illegals, expensively housed)

    In other words, everyone got a lot poorer, and still the incoming flood proceeds

    We are like a hotel that has gone from a good profitable 4 star to putting five people in every room to just about break even, and so the reputation goes down, we lower prices further to desperately attract anyone, we turn the rooms into dorms, then we become a hostel
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    As I said yesterday, it doesn’t make a difference the real world if they formally call a recession or not. Because most voters can feel the recession, most voters are living the recession.

    Worse is to come. We had the tax rises of the autumn statement. My first mortgage payment with the Liz Truss tax is days away. So many small businesses crumbling under the weight of their COVID debts…
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,026
    Jonathan said:

    Brexit dividend.

    Not just a one-off hit. As long as we remain out of Europe we will be economically incapacitated. It really is time the Tories were held responsible for this monumental act of self harm.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,191
    There's an excellent article on the SMO in the LRB.

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v46/n04/james-meek/two-armies-in-one

    Leon will like it because it agrees with him. The Banderite shills won't like it because it agrees with Leon.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,806
    India looking far too comfortable here.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,889
    Time to trot out my usual moan about the difference between accuracy and precision.

    Basically, the economy is about the same size as it was 6 months ago.

    Let's see some error bars on these figures.

    Not that I object to having something to blame the government for.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    It is high old time for any sane person to plot their escape from Blighty
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344
    Leon said:

    It is high old time for any sane person to plot their escape from Blighty

    Why what's happened now? Is it Kane's failure to bring success to Bayern?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,256

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Absolutely. Biden has nothing to lose. Change the constitution. Ban the fucking things and let Trump and his idiot followers argue otherwise.
    Have there ever been any polls regarding the banning of guns?
    Polling, as I recall, does not support banning guns, but it does show strong support for what one might call sensible gun control measures.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,889
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    UK could contribute to nuclear shield if Trump wins, suggests German minister
    Comments draw Britain into debate about European security without US providing bulk of Nato’s nuclear deterrent

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent
    ..In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he wrote: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Great Britain are already making a contribution to the security of our alliance. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has made various offers of cooperation. We should understand Donald Trump’s recent statements as a call to further rethink this element of European security under the umbrella of Nato.

    “The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”..

    Likesay, what do we get in return?

    A nice sunny chunk of Europe?

    Germans basically own Majorca. Let's ask for that, plus Malta back, plus Trieste and its hinterland
    It's being reported on WDR 2 that in return Britain has asked for German troops to help subjugate Scotland in the event of an unauthorised independence referendum.
    I didn't realise that HYUFD had so much influence!
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,681
    Leon said:

    ...

    dixiedean said:

    UK in recession.
    0.3% drop in GDP in fourth quarter.
    0.1 % growth in all of 2023.

    So growth up 0.1% over 2023. Rishi can claim a win, another of the 5 pledges smashed out of the park!
    Also, do the maths

    We achieved 0.1% growth WHILE IMPORTING 700,000 MIGRANTS (plus illegals, expensively housed)

    In other words, everyone got a lot poorer, and still the incoming flood proceeds

    We are like a hotel that has gone from a good profitable 4 star to putting five people in every room to just about break even, and so the reputation goes down, we lower prices further to desperately attract anyone, we turn the rooms into dorms, then we become a hostel
    **** me, that was some leap!

    Some might argue that a modest growth over 2023 would have been much improved by the industry of those hitherto un-arrived foreign workers to boost our output and grow our economy.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,934
    Leon said:

    It is high old time for any sane person to plot their escape from Blighty

    I thought you were against economic migration.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,290
    Pulpstar said:

    Bank of England will no doubt want to see a depression befor interest rates fall

    With the economy in a technical recession and inflation set to fall sub 2% in the next few months no doubt there will be a lot of pressure on the Bank to cut rates quickly. However, that would be a mistake, for three reasons. First, the fall in inflation is driven by falling energy prices and to a lesser extent disinflation in other goods categories. Services and wage inflation by contrast are far too high and look quite sticky, suggesting that inflation is not yet on track to hit 2% sustainably. Second, what matters is not the level of growth but growth relative to the supply capacity of the economy. The extremely tight labour market (3.8% unemployment) suggests that the supply side is weak, which means the Bank can't afford to boost demand without adding to inflation. Finally, the Bank needs to be forward looking, and the PMI surveys suggest the growth outlook is already set to improve. Cutting rates too fast risks a second peak in inflation and further rate hikes in the future to bring it back down. Better to remain patient for now.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,268

    Time to trot out my usual moan about the difference between accuracy and precision.

    Basically, the economy is about the same size as it was 6 months ago.

    Let's see some error bars on these figures.

    Not that I object to having something to blame the government for.

    Nitpicking over whether the UK has actually gone into recession or not is a trap for the Tories. Just reminds everyone that there is zero growth.

    So, in 3...2...1...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,423
    Dura_Ace said:

    There's an excellent article on the SMO in the LRB.

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v46/n04/james-meek/two-armies-in-one

    Leon will like it because it agrees with him. The Banderite shills won't like it because it agrees with Leon.

    "banderite shills"

    The funny thing about that is your favoured side are the fascists, waging a war of imperialist expansion against a smaller nation.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,681
    Leon said:

    It is high old time for any sane person to plot their escape from Blighty

    Not as easy as it once was thanks to your Brexit.
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    NEW THREAD

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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    UK could contribute to nuclear shield if Trump wins, suggests German minister
    Comments draw Britain into debate about European security without US providing bulk of Nato’s nuclear deterrent

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent
    ..In an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he wrote: “The strategic nuclear forces of France and Great Britain are already making a contribution to the security of our alliance. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has made various offers of cooperation. We should understand Donald Trump’s recent statements as a call to further rethink this element of European security under the umbrella of Nato.

    “The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”..

    Likesay, what do we get in return?

    A nice sunny chunk of Europe?

    Germans basically own Majorca. Let's ask for that, plus Malta back, plus Trieste and its hinterland
    It's being reported on WDR 2 that in return Britain has asked for German troops to help subjugate Scotland in the event of an unauthorised independence referendum.
    I didn't realise that HYUFD had so much influence!
    Sensible chap HYUFD, I've always said so. The UK government is worried British troops might not want to fire on people in Scotland, and of course they can't ask the French for help. Germany is a natural choice. Also Britain wants to discourage Germany from getting nukes (worried Germany will replace UK in Security Council), so happy to offer nuclear umbrella.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,268

    Pulpstar said:

    Bank of England will no doubt want to see a depression befor interest rates fall

    With the economy in a technical recession and inflation set to fall sub 2% in the next few months no doubt there will be a lot of pressure on the Bank to cut rates quickly. However, that would be a mistake, for three reasons. First, the fall in inflation is driven by falling energy prices and to a lesser extent disinflation in other goods categories. Services and wage inflation by contrast are far too high and look quite sticky, suggesting that inflation is not yet on track to hit 2% sustainably. Second, what matters is not the level of growth but growth relative to the supply capacity of the economy. The extremely tight labour market (3.8% unemployment) suggests that the supply side is weak, which means the Bank can't afford to boost demand without adding to inflation. Finally, the Bank needs to be forward looking, and the PMI surveys suggest the growth outlook is already set to improve. Cutting rates too fast risks a second peak in inflation and further rate hikes in the future to bring it back down. Better to remain patient for now.
    Not my field of economics so can't contribute on what's best for the country as a whole, but the inequality of the impact of high interest rates is pretty stark. I'd argue that's why they haven't been particularly effective for inflation - people with debt/mortgages/rents didn't have much discretionary spending to cut in the first place, and the owner-occupier class saved so much during COVID that high interest rates are even better news than normal.

    And now we have a recession.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,248

    A good (*) take on the oh-my-god-we're-all-going-to-die nukes-in-space drama:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOdTfkJojK4

    TL;DR: it's not much to worry about; not a space EMP; not a FOBS. It's more Republicans weaponising intelligence against Ukraine.

    (*) Good, because I agree with it.

    That’s a Superbad take. The statement was issued by Mike Turner, who is one of the House Republicans most vocal about SUPPORTING Ukraine with further military funding. Meanwhile MAGA types likes Marjorie Taylor Greene have responded with word salads about the Mexican border and Biden being senile.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,423
    moonshine said:

    A good (*) take on the oh-my-god-we're-all-going-to-die nukes-in-space drama:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOdTfkJojK4

    TL;DR: it's not much to worry about; not a space EMP; not a FOBS. It's more Republicans weaponising intelligence against Ukraine.

    (*) Good, because I agree with it.

    That’s a Superbad take. The statement was issued by Mike Turner, who is one of the House Republicans most vocal about SUPPORTING Ukraine with further military funding. Meanwhile MAGA types likes Marjorie Taylor Greene have responded with word salads about the Mexican border and Biden being senile.
    It's a very good take; and certainly better than the 'ohmygodwe'reallgoingtodie' idiots make out. Also, why do *you* think Turner's doing this?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,171
    Depressing.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,109
    edited February 15
    theProle said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Isn't the problem approximately this:
    Virtually everyone in the USA has a gun or ten, plus enough ammo to start a small war.
    There is no register of guns, and thus who has got what is pretty much unknown.
    If you banned guns tomorrow, some would get handed in, and plenty wouldn't.
    There would be a strong inverse relationship between those who hand in their guns and those whom you would most like to disarm.
    Therefore, banning guns probably actually causes some kinds of gun crime to increase - e.g. undertaking armed robbery is much less risky if you are sure the target is unarmed.

    It's not clear that turning the USA from a place where everyone is armed to the teeth into a place where only the criminals and the right wing nutjobs are armed is actually much of an improvement.

    Note - I'm not against gun control; I wouldn't want a US style free for all here; I'm just not convinced there is a workable way to change the status quo in the US, given where they are now. In some ways it's rather like the problems we have with teenagers stabbing each other with carving knives; it's basically impossible to prevent teenagers from accessing carving knives, the best we can do is make carrying one without a valid reason an offence and do a lot of stop and search type activity in problem areas; and even then a kid stabs another every week or so.
    Not correct in one respect - only a minority of Usonians own guns. On a quick lookup, from a Gallup poll several years ago it is about a third:

    WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Thirty-two percent of U.S. adults say they personally own a gun, while a larger percentage, 44%, report living in a gun household. Adults living in gun households include those with a gun in their home or anywhere on their property.

    Gallup has tracked both metrics of gun ownership annually since 2007, showing no clear increase or decrease in gun ownership over that time.


    https://news.gallup.com/poll/264932/percentage-americans-own-guns.aspx

    Even eg Texas is in line.

    It's a vociferous minority.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339
    A "technical recession" is a "recession". (I'm going to be saying that again today I think)

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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,109
    MattW said:

    theProle said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ban guns in the USA. It's the only solution.

    Isn't the problem approximately this:
    Virtually everyone in the USA has a gun or ten, plus enough ammo to start a small war.
    There is no register of guns, and thus who has got what is pretty much unknown.
    If you banned guns tomorrow, some would get handed in, and plenty wouldn't.
    There would be a strong inverse relationship between those who hand in their guns and those whom you would most like to disarm.
    Therefore, banning guns probably actually causes some kinds of gun crime to increase - e.g. undertaking armed robbery is much less risky if you are sure the target is unarmed.

    It's not clear that turning the USA from a place where everyone is armed to the teeth into a place where only the criminals and the right wing nutjobs are armed is actually much of an improvement.

    Note - I'm not against gun control; I wouldn't want a US style free for all here; I'm just not convinced there is a workable way to change the status quo in the US, given where they are now. In some ways it's rather like the problems we have with teenagers stabbing each other with carving knives; it's basically impossible to prevent teenagers from accessing carving knives, the best we can do is make carrying one without a valid reason an offence and do a lot of stop and search type activity in problem areas; and even then a kid stabs another every week or so.
    Not correct in one respect - only a minority of Usonians own guns. On a quick lookup, from a Gallup poll several years ago it is about a third:

    WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Thirty-two percent of U.S. adults say they personally own a gun, while a larger percentage, 44%, report living in a gun household. Adults living in gun households include those with a gun in their home or anywhere on their property.

    Gallup has tracked both metrics of gun ownership annually since 2007, showing no clear increase or decrease in gun ownership over that time.


    https://news.gallup.com/poll/264932/percentage-americans-own-guns.aspx

    Even eg Texas is in line.

    It's a vociferous minority.
    PS
    For one demographic factor, I'd perhaps point to extensive urbanisation in the USA being around a century behind the UK. UK was 80%+ urbanised by 1890; in the USA it did not reach that number until post-2000.

    And country people - as in the UK - have a greater familiarity with guns in the normal patterns of life. Urbanisation in certain European countries eg France is also comparatively later.

    That speaks somewhat to attempts to reduce guns in society, as background.
This discussion has been closed.