A rare mistake by Labour HQ in Rochdale. Tony Lloyd died on 17 January, so they haven't had very long to get a candidate in place. But the due diligence they've been conducting for other seats clearly hasn't been expedited either swiftly or thoroughly enough. I suspect Starmer will be bollocking those he's delegated to check on candidates.
I do wonder if the bad headlines may have an impact on the outcome this week in Wellinborough.
Why did they rush? Tony Lloyd's funeral hasn't even taken place yet iirc.
Ali is the official Labour Party candidate. The Labour Party has 'withdrawn support' from him but they are too late to stop him standing for election as the Labour Party representative. If he wins the Returning Officer will declare a victory for Labour. So I don't think Betfair will or should void this market.
It’s farcical that Labour have to have him as their candidate now even though they don’t want him! Is it because the ballot papers have already been printed or some similarly mundane convention the reasons for which are lost in the mists of time?
There was a similar case in Wellingborough in 2015 when the Labour candidate was convicted of fraud before the election and also accused of inappropriately texting a teenager, but he still appeared on the ballot as the Labour candidate after he was suspended:
Ali is the official Labour Party candidate. The Labour Party has 'withdrawn support' from him but they are too late to stop him standing for election as the Labour Party representative. If he wins the Returning Officer will declare a victory for Labour. So I don't think Betfair will or should void this market.
It’s farcical that Labour have to have him as their candidate now even though they don’t want him! Is it because the ballot papers have already been printed or some similarly mundane convention the reasons for which are lost in the mists of time?
There was a similar case in Wellingborough in 2015 when the Labour candidate was convicted of fraud before the election and also accused of inappropriately texting a teenager, but he still appeared on the ballot as the Labour candidate after he was suspended:
A rare mistake by Labour HQ in Rochdale. Tony Lloyd died on 17 January, so they haven't had very long to get a candidate in place. But the due diligence they've been conducting for candidates in other seats clearly hasn't been expedited either swiftly or thoroughly enough. I suspect Starmer will be bollocking those he's delegated to check on candidates.
I do wonder if the bad headlines may have an impact on the outcome this week in Wellinborough.
OTOH pulling the local favourite doesn't always work. The Blair Labour HQ did that with Mr Canavan in Falkirk - he ended up winning as an independent MSP and stayed that way for years.
A rare mistake by Labour HQ in Rochdale. Tony Lloyd died on 17 January, so they haven't had very long to get a candidate in place. But the due diligence they've been conducting for candidates in other seats clearly hasn't been expedited either swiftly or thoroughly enough. I suspect Starmer will be bollocking those he's delegated to check on candidates.
I do wonder if the bad headlines may have an impact on the outcome this week in Wellinborough.
You would think (hope) at a basic competence level they would have a checklist of "things the press are going to ask you about. A) Gaza...." "ohno!"
Edit: just to say, if they don't then... jeez. God help us all.
A rare mistake by Labour HQ in Rochdale. Tony Lloyd died on 17 January, so they haven't had very long to get a candidate in place. But the due diligence they've been conducting for candidates in other seats clearly hasn't been expedited either swiftly or thoroughly enough. I suspect Starmer will be bollocking those he's delegated to check on candidates.
I do wonder if the bad headlines may have an impact on the outcome this week in Wellinborough.
OTOH pulling the local favourite doesn't always work. The Blair Labour HQ did that with Mr Canavan in Falkirk - he ended up winning as an independent MSP and stayed that way for years.
I take your point, and generally I'm not in favour of HQ over-riding the local party's choice. However, given the revelations about Mr Ali I don't think he'd have done a Canavan, nor do I think the local party would have much cause to complain about him being de-selected.
I just hope that the scoundrel Galloway fails to gain traction.
Presumably Ali will still be standing with the Labour flag and be announced as the Labour candidate? I would expect he'd still win - a coalition of people who agree with him and people voting for the Labour flag regardless should see hime comfortably over the line. The common assumption is that candidates can have an effect at the margins but in a safe Lab constituency when Lab are high in the polls even an awful Lab candidate will win. People just don't pay that much attention to individual candidates.
Fair to say that this guy is possibly in the minority of Democratic activists - but his point that the administration has delivered for the young is a sharp contrast to anything anyone has ever said about our government.
The linked Politico article is worth reading.
I’m 21. I don’t give a damn about Joe Biden’s age because he has delivered for Gen Z more than any president in history. THAT is why my peers & I will vote for him again. We see his accomplishments over his age.
To be fair to most former presidents, Gen Z hadn't been born during their time in office.
Reminds me of talking to two new (young) colleagues. I made a reference to Blackadder series 4 and they just blanked. I sent them a picture of Blackadder.
The ever impressive Owen Jones is predicting a catastrophe for Starmer over Rochdale. LBC
Kind of impossible now he hasn't got a candidate.
What's the worst that can happen?
His party loses? 'Unique circumstances, we had no candidate'.
His party wins? 'Shows how popular we are despite not being able to endorse the candidate'.
It’s only 24 hour politics nerds like us that are going to notice this anyway. As it is the bloke was rumbled yesterday and they withdrew support today, which will seem like swift action when the story is written
That was my take. Thought it was my inner bias at work, but interesting that you see it likewise.
In the outside world, taking action within 1 working day is pretty quick. For a start, if you are going to show any kind of fairness, you have to ask a person if they said what they are reported to have said. And provide some kind of explanation. Then write that up and make a written decision. Then communicate that back to the person in question before releasing it to the media.
Unless you are Saddam Hussein and you just shoot the offender with the gold plated Beretta. But that is probably frowned upon in the more middle of the road social democratic parties.
Wasn't Al Campbell's Law that you had a week to see if the scandal would subside before you were out? Different times, of course, with a much more intense and continuous media cycle these days.
As for Labour, it would be interesting (if irrelevant) to know who knew what when? Was there a reasonable way for Rochdale Labour to know about these remarks, or were they made somewhere else? Did anyone ask Ali the "is there anything else we should know about?" question over the weekend, and if so, what did he say?
I know a little of the Rochdale Labour Party, and AFAIK they are not the types to cheer on mad bastards like Ali. I assume ignorance rather than indifference. That being said, he was hardly an unknown quantity. You'd have thought people would have known a bit about him.
The fact is, despite Sir Keir’s boasts of having cleaned up the Labour Party, ‘under new management’ etc, Azhar Ali was a Labour PPC in 2019 & a long term councillor. There are obviously hundreds more like him just underneath the surface despite the Sheen of respectability Starmer has managed to deflect with
“This puts the Blinkerwall into range of the oldest known examples of hunting architecture in the world and potentially makes it the oldest man-made megastructure in Europe,” the researchers said...
I just hope that the scoundrel Galloway fails to gain traction.
Presumably Ali will still be standing with the Labour flag and be announced as the Labour candidate? I would expect he'd still win - a coalition of people who agree with him and people voting for the Labour flag regardless should see hime comfortably over the line. The common assumption is that candidates can have an effect at the margins but in a safe Lab constituency when Lab are high in the polls even an awful Lab candidate will win. People just don't pay that much attention to individual candidates.
Got to be approaching a value bet at 2/1 hasn’t it?
Its all two faced 'till they stop delivering weapons. I don't believe Israel will stop unless there are consequences and Biden is not willing to action anything tangible.
“This puts the Blinkerwall into range of the oldest known examples of hunting architecture in the world and potentially makes it the oldest man-made megastructure in Europe,” the researchers said...
b) Wild smoked salmon (which inevitably comes from the Atlantic these days) not Scottish. Because 99% of Scottish smoked salmon is farmed; and
c) what has Rishi done now.
Make that *all* smoked salmon from Scotland is farmed - there has been no salmon line fishing in the Tay this year, due to the rise in sea temperatures, caused by the changes to maritime fuels instigated to improve the environment. I doubt other rivers are much different.
I understand why people avoid farmed salmon but I think aquaculture has improved in recent times. I prefer line caught but I'm not bothered by farmed.
If it was that much improved, the major firms (Mowi, Norskott Havbruk (Scottish Sea Farms) and Bakkafrost) wouldn’t be trying to stop everyone filming their farms or sampling the adjacent water.
I just hope that the scoundrel Galloway fails to gain traction.
Presumably Ali will still be standing with the Labour flag and be announced as the Labour candidate? I would expect he'd still win - a coalition of people who agree with him and people voting for the Labour flag regardless should see hime comfortably over the line. The common assumption is that candidates can have an effect at the margins but in a safe Lab constituency when Lab are high in the polls even an awful Lab candidate will win. People just don't pay that much attention to individual candidates.
Also worth noting that probably over 90% of postal votes that will be counted will have already been returned before the story broke, simply because most people who vote by post do so within the first few days of getting their ballot.
We all seem to be outraged at Ali but are the good burghers of Rochdale outraged at Ali.
I think there will be enough people supportive of, indifferent to, or, largely, ignorant of Ali's comments to get him over the line. I don't know if @NickPalmer is around but he has been interesting in the past about the extent to which electorates pay attention to candidates as opposed to parties.
We all seem to be outraged at Ali but are the good burghers of Rochdale outraged at Ali.
I think there will be enough people supportive of, indifferent to, or, largely, ignorant of Ali's comments to get him over the line. I don't know if @NickPalmer is around but he has been interesting in the past about the extent to which electorates pay attention to candidates as opposed to parties.
In the Wellingborough case I mentioned earlier it gave UKIP their best ever result in the constituency, beating Labour for second place.
“This puts the Blinkerwall into range of the oldest known examples of hunting architecture in the world and potentially makes it the oldest man-made megastructure in Europe,” the researchers said...
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "Yonaguni".
Ali is the official Labour Party candidate. The Labour Party has 'withdrawn support' from him but they are too late to stop him standing for election as the Labour Party representative. If he wins the Returning Officer will declare a victory for Labour. So I don't think Betfair will or should void this market.
It’s farcical that Labour have to have him as their candidate now even though they don’t want him! Is it because the ballot papers have already been printed or some similarly mundane convention the reasons for which are lost in the mists of time?
No, it's because the deadline for withdrawals is the same as the deadline for nominations, which was weeks ago. It's not a convention; it's a legal process. If parties don't do their vetting properly or pick a liability, that's on them. Signing the nomination papers (which is done by candidate, agent and party representative) is a form of contract. You don't get to break it just because you later decide it's inconvenient.
Dylan Difford @Dylan_Difford · 5h I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
Ali is the official Labour Party candidate. The Labour Party has 'withdrawn support' from him but they are too late to stop him standing for election as the Labour Party representative. If he wins the Returning Officer will declare a victory for Labour. So I don't think Betfair will or should void this market.
It’s farcical that Labour have to have him as their candidate now even though they don’t want him! Is it because the ballot papers have already been printed or some similarly mundane convention the reasons for which are lost in the mists of time?
No, it's because the deadline for withdrawals is the same as the deadline for nominations, which was weeks ago. It's not a convention; it's a legal process. If parties don't do their vetting properly or pick a liability, that's on them. Signing the nomination papers (which is done by candidate, agent and party representative) is a form of contract. You don't get to break it just because you later decide it's inconvenient.
I knew there was a date for nominations and a date for withdrawal (by the actual candidate) and I thought they were very close.
But I did not know/remember they are same date!! 19 working days.
I hate to interrupt in one of the few occasions when the PB "discourse" (kill me now) is revolving about politics and betting, but here is an interesting article by Simon Hix on EUParl2024 in June
Tucker Carlson: “The city of Moscow…It’s so much nicer than any city in my country…It’s so much cleaner, and safer, and prettier -esthetically-…Than any city in the United States.”
Quick question. On Betfair you can back Labour still at 2.82. But they have no candidate, so would they pay out if Ali won? Or can we safely lay Labour? I’m reminded f the Aussie open when Jokovic was refused entry into Australia and all Jokovic bets were voided.
Labour does have a candidate. they just don't like him very much. They are currently standing behind him mouthing "no, no, not him" and making throat-slitting gestures, then whistling innocently when he wheels round. But nevertheless he is still the Labour candidate for Gaza Rochdale
Dylan Difford @Dylan_Difford · 5h I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
Bad timing for that tweet, because Labour's problems at the moment will probably stop the Tories going quite as low as that in the polls.
I've had £5.39 on the Lib Dems to win Rochdale at average odds 55.35
There are the first signs that their campaign is stepping up, with calls going out for volunteers, but it’s a bit last minute. I don’t get the impression the by-election campaign has been that active up to now. Punters, DYOR.
Do the LibDems have a paedophile as a candidate? That's been their best bet in Rochdale historically.
"Why the Azhar Ali affair is so damaging for Labour The party’s delayed suspension of its Rochdale candidate for anti-Semitism has undermined its political and moral credibility.
Quick question. On Betfair you can back Labour still at 2.82. But they have no candidate, so would they pay out if Ali won? Or can we safely lay Labour? I’m reminded f the Aussie open when Jokovic was refused entry into Australia and all Jokovic bets were voided.
Labour does have a candidate. they just don't like him very much. They are currently standing behind him mouthing "no, no, not him" and making throat-slitting gestures, then whistling innocently when he wheels round. But nevertheless he is still the Labour candidate for Gaza Rochdale
I think the smart bet is Ali wins. As a couple of PBers have pointed out, he is still Labour, only suspended whilst remarks are investigated, so just how many who were going to vote Ali and Labour a few days ago are now put off? And why exactly does he now ship lots of votes to Slimy George?
Strangely enough, in many ways Ali comes across as a strong candidate, strong locally, looks, talks and walks the part. He even convinced when he explained why saying that conspiracy theory was daft and wrong of him.
But he has actually said something worse hasn’t he, something that actually is anti semitism in this new case? Mail don’t know what it is yet or they would have used it. In fact the vibe from today’s front pages is Starmer has made the right decision, and is in a stronger place for not being indecisive for longer.
It’s very much in Starmer’s interest Ali loses, so he doesn’t have to install another candidate to defeat MP Ali. Very very much in Starmer’s interest Ali loses.
Dylan Difford @Dylan_Difford · 5h I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
Bad timing for that tweet, because Labour's problems at the moment will probably stop the Tories going quite as low as that in the polls.
If the economic news is as sub-optimal as is being suggested i.e. technical recession, inflation up ticking by just a fraction and mortgage rate reductions are already (the Nationwide) heading North again, a 19 might be seen on the dial. Still, a year less three weeks to go before the election, your team can turn it around.
Dylan Difford @Dylan_Difford · 5h I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
Bad timing for that tweet, because Labour's problems at the moment will probably stop the Tories going quite as low as that in the polls.
If the economic news is as sub-optimal as is being suggested i.e. technical recession, inflation up ticking by just a fraction and mortgage rate reductions are already (the Nationwide) heading North again, a 19 might be seen on the dial. Still, a year less three weeks to go before the election, your team can turn it around.
The lowest mainstream scores during the Trussterfuck were a couple of 19s (YouGov and R+W). There was a 14 from People Polling, but they were always a bit odd...
Major's worst score was an 18.5 from Gallup early in 1995.
Dylan Difford @Dylan_Difford · 5h I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
Bad timing for that tweet, because Labour's problems at the moment will probably stop the Tories going quite as low as that in the polls.
If the economic news is as sub-optimal as is being suggested i.e. technical recession, inflation up ticking by just a fraction and mortgage rate reductions are already (the Nationwide) heading North again, a 19 might be seen on the dial. Still, a year less three weeks to go before the election, your team can turn it around.
My team is that I'm hoping for a Lab/LD coalition which introduces proportional representation. But it's true I'm anti-Woke, (which doesn't exist).
Ali is the official Labour Party candidate. The Labour Party has 'withdrawn support' from him but they are too late to stop him standing for election as the Labour Party representative. If he wins the Returning Officer will declare a victory for Labour. So I don't think Betfair will or should void this market.
It’s farcical that Labour have to have him as their candidate now even though they don’t want him! Is it because the ballot papers have already been printed or some similarly mundane convention the reasons for which are lost in the mists of time?
No, it's because the deadline for withdrawals is the same as the deadline for nominations, which was weeks ago. It's not a convention; it's a legal process. If parties don't do their vetting properly or pick a liability, that's on them. Signing the nomination papers (which is done by candidate, agent and party representative) is a form of contract. You don't get to break it just because you later decide it's inconvenient.
Quite right too! I don't know of a democracy on the planet which doesn't have a deadline to get candidate nominations in by for the ballot. There needs to be a deadline and if you mess that up, that's on you.
Same reason why Biden is almost certainly the next Democratic Party nominee - quite frankly time is up to get other candidates into the primaries, so he has the delegates sewn up already effectively.
The closest I can think of where a party can in practice change candidates after close of nominations is the principle of 'write-in' candidates in America.
Dylan Difford @Dylan_Difford · 5h I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
Bad timing for that tweet, because Labour's problems at the moment will probably stop the Tories going quite as low as that in the polls.
If the economic news is as sub-optimal as is being suggested i.e. technical recession, inflation up ticking by just a fraction and mortgage rate reductions are already (the Nationwide) heading North again, a 19 might be seen on the dial. Still, a year less three weeks to go before the election, your team can turn it around.
It’s not about the vagaries of some pollsters,, given them the odd 19 here or there - the real story is the Tory position getting worse from every pollster over the course of weeks now. Delta has Tories down at 27 for two polls in a row, if this were a card game that would be worth loads more points than a people polling 19%. They are low and gap big on the Opinium too, in fact most pollsters are finding under 25% in contrast with a few weeks ago where PBers were asking “why some late 20’s others mid 20’s”.
There’s the polling story - sliding despite electioneering like crazy and putting money in pay packets. Why? Is it just the nation hating Sunak dragging the Tories down? 🤷♀️
As I keep saying, Labour will win the next election as the public (quite rightly) are only interested in turfing the Tories out, but the warnings are there loud and clear for what that Labour government is going to be like...
As I keep saying, Labour will win the next election as the public (quite rightly) are only interested in turfing the Tories out, but the warnings are there loud and clear for what that Labour government is going to be like...
Indeed - how many other candidates like or worse than Ali are already selected who will gain seats at the next G E...
We're back onto beergate levels of "this is the end of Keir Starmer" I see.
No, he'll probably be the next Prime Minister. Likely another completely useless one, but he'll get to play with the train set for a bit, which is the aim of the exercise.
"We're standing by our candidate who said some terrible things"
What? Really?
"Well no, not really."
So we now have a Parliamentary by election that Labour should walk without a candidate who the party itself can support. Careless would be an extremely generous description. Following on from the Green £28bn it is starting look Starmer really doesn't know what he is doing. And he's not even PM yet.
He's blundering from one U-turn to the next, calculating along the way what decision he thinks is most likely to get him into power. He's not at all bothered about what policies he does or doesn't ditch, or whatever new ones he might make up on the hoof, along the way - and there's no particular reason to suppose he'll be any different as Prime Minister. Just the same as the one we have at the moment, actually. Careering about like a wobbly shopping trolley, with no interest in anything at all except squatting uselessly in Downing Street for as long as possible. It's just about being Prime Minister for the sake of it. Existing, but doing nothing of any conceivable worth.
I don't know what motivates these people, I can only imagine that being Prime Minister is the summit of a political career and they're satisfied with just having made it, seeing how long they can sit there and which of their predecessors they can outlast before getting the boot, and then retiring to write a vacuous and pathetic memoir. Neither use nor ornament, the lot of them.
It's quite possible the LAB lead really falls away as people focus on the election. They will probably still win but could be as close as 38 - 32. There really is no real enthusiasm for LAB.
Yep, low turnout (which strongly favours the Tories as it'll drive the median age of the electorate up even more,) resulting in a hung parliament. The Conservatives are so useless that it'll most likely persuade enough of their backers to switch sides or stay at home to rob them of a majority, but there exists no positive reason to endorse any of the alternatives. Except for voters in Scotland minded to pull the plug on Britain, who can always stick with the equally useless SNP to protest the fact.
Labour 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25. One term of total non-achievement, followed by a prompt return to Toryism.
38 - 32 is rather possible, but I’m still raotflmfao at your 300-260 seat numbers from 38-32.
38-32 would deliver an eighty Starmer majority and Tories below 200 seats with the amount of tactical vote in addition to that swing.
You seem to be assuming an immense amount of tactical voting. Why would there be? Some grand alliance of progressive voters all so desperate to be rid of the Tories that they'll troop down to the polling stations in their droves to back a unity candidate? No, not when there is zero enthusiasm for the alternative.
Low turnout, apathy, and Green voters in particular sticking to their guns rather than endorsing continuity Conservatism. That's what we can expect from the next election.
🤣 you seem to be assuming NO tactical voting to get 300-260 from 38-32.
But my straightforward answer to you is yes, with LLG still over 60, and demonstrating voting tactically with razor precision in local elections and by elections for years now, we should all be expecting a large amount of razor sharp tactical voting butchering the Tory seat total come the General Election. That LLG is huge, there’s plenty of evidence of tactical voting in recent elections, and the main appetite and enthusiasm that is out there amongst the electorate is get Sunak out.
38/32 was someone else's guesstimate. I'd be surprised if the Con vote share is less than a third of the popular vote, and they'll probably do a little better than that. Depressed turnout disproportionately impacts lower age cohorts and therefore favours the Tories whom, lest we forget, have delivered a golden age of loot for the majority of pensioners who own their own homes.
Voting requires effort, whether it's applying for, filling in and returning a postal ballot, or trudging to the local primary school in the rain. If it's transparently going to make no difference then why bother? A lot of voters are going to look at the non-choice being offered them and decide they'd rather spend quality time drinking or fucking or picking their noses.
Wait. You think the Tories will poll more than 32?
What’s interesting about the Delta Poll is outside the big 3 it bundles the rest as others. 20%, in contrast 1997 others was 6%. This makes historical comparisons and “what always tends to happen” a little more uncertain. We know from 92 to 97 Labour didn’t get many direct switchers from Con, about 14% tops, what caused the landslide was stay at home Con voters. This time it’s not just apathy peeling voters from the Tories, it’s sirens in form of an electoral machine and party called reform.
That current 20% others makes Labour not polling as high PV as Johnson and even May a possibility, but similarly takes top off the Tory PV compared to history. It’s a new fluid ball game, and the scoreboard reads Tories no higher than 31 and no more than 170 seats.
The other thing pointing to me being right is say, in 2015 although Labour had campaign poll leads, in terms of best PM and best for economy they were very much behind. Not so this time, to the extent of asking has there ever been an election where opposition were so far ahead on best PM and best for the economy?
Why shouldn't the Tories poll above 32%? It's no more ridiculous a notion than RefUK coming in north of 10%, which are the kinds of suggestions coming out of the random number generators that are the opinion polls at the moment.
I don't trust the polls. I dare say they offer a reasonable approximation of what people think right now, but I doubt the current numbers will survive contact with an election campaign where voters have to think about who is actually going to form an administration (or, indeed, whether or not they care who does from the options available.)
I've further justified my reasoning for putting the Conservatives north of a third of the vote in a different reply so won't elaborate here.
And I’ve been arguing for weeks, anything above 3% for Ref has to be added to the Con PV. So the kicker is, we are actually in agreement in that part. Except, when I take all that off ref and add it to Con, it’s still not above 32.
Dylan Difford @Dylan_Difford · 5h I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
Bad timing for that tweet, because Labour's problems at the moment will probably stop the Tories going quite as low as that in the polls.
If the economic news is as sub-optimal as is being suggested i.e. technical recession, inflation up ticking by just a fraction and mortgage rate reductions are already (the Nationwide) heading North again, a 19 might be seen on the dial. Still, a year less three weeks to go before the election, your team can turn it around.
It’s not about the vagaries of some pollsters,, given them the odd 19 here or there - the real story is the Tory position getting worse from every pollster over the course of weeks now. Delta has Tories down at 27 for two polls in a row, if this were a card game that would be worth loads more points than a people polling 19%. They are low and gap big on the Opinium too, in fact most pollsters are finding under 25% in contrast with a few weeks ago where PBers were asking “why some late 20’s others mid 20’s”.
There’s the polling story - sliding despite electioneering like crazy and putting money in pay packets. Why? Is it just the nation hating Sunak dragging the Tories down? 🤷♀️
Two things.
The most important one is that Rishi has been left holding the baby just before it does an enormous stinky poo. A lot of consequences- some he had a part in, others government decisions from before he was an MP, some just bad luck, have all landed at once. Only partly fair, but politics isn't fair. So any Conservative leader would struggle. Even someone with the wit of Johnson, the charm of Cameron, the empathy of Major and the determination of Thatcher.
Rishi has none of these things. Indeed, he barely has the empathy of Johnson, the determination of Cameron, the wit of Major and the charm of Thatcher. Just because he's been given a losing hand doesn't mean he isn't playing it really badly.
Tucker Carlson: “The city of Moscow…It’s so much nicer than any city in my country…It’s so much cleaner, and safer, and prettier -esthetically-…Than any city in the United States.”
And dear Mr Tucker, if you lived in Moscow as a Russian journalist and spoke about Putin the way you speak about your own President you would find out very quickly how clean and safe those streets were as you plummeted towards them from a high window.
As I keep saying, Labour will win the next election as the public (quite rightly) are only interested in turfing the Tories out, but the warnings are there loud and clear for what that Labour government is going to be like...
Indeed - how many other candidates like or worse than Ali are already selected who will gain seats at the next G E...
So what are you both actually saying? Suggesting shadowy parts of the Israeli government allowing the Hamas attack because they wanted this war, is clear antisemitism? Someone saying they hate Netanyahu and his politics with all the strength of their being, is also antisemitism?
Neither are examples of antisemitism are they? Don’t you think, in the shadow of a General Election this particular case has been a little frothed up for what it actually is?
As I keep saying, Labour will win the next election as the public (quite rightly) are only interested in turfing the Tories out, but the warnings are there loud and clear for what that Labour government is going to be like...
Indeed - how many other candidates like or worse than Ali are already selected who will gain seats at the next G E...
So what are you both actually saying? Suggesting shadowy parts of the Israeli government allowing the Hamas attack because they wanted this war, is clear antisemitism? Someone saying they hate Netanyahu and his politics with all the strength of their being, is also antisemitism?
Neither are examples of antisemitism are they? Don’t you think, in the shadow of a General Election this particular case has been a little frothed up for what it actually is?
Is this article anti-semitic?
"They were Israel's 'eyes on the border' - but their Hamas warnings went unheard"
"No matter what happens in the 2024 election, it’s a period that will not be forgotten. But unlike a terrorist atrocity or pandemic, the crisis of American democracy is a crisis of our own making. It’s a manifestation of our powerful instincts for conflict, prejudice, and hatred—instincts that can lie dormant for many years before suddenly erupting all at once. The problem isn’t the “dystopia of ennui” Pinker mentioned, it’s that ennui is often one small step away from nihilism and extremism.
Fukuyama is right that there’s no viable ideological challenger to liberal democracy. But he had a suspicion in 1989 that liberal democracy wouldn’t be enough for many of its beneficiaries. They would crave conflict and destabilization; they would exchange the stability and prosperity of democracy for the thrill of ideological combat and blind partisan loyalty; they would search for new ways to get history started again. Even if these people ultimately fail to dislodge the democratic institutions that have held strong for so long—which is still the likeliest outcome—they will create a lot of chaos and misery along the way."
Dylan Difford @Dylan_Difford · 5h I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
Bad timing for that tweet, because Labour's problems at the moment will probably stop the Tories going quite as low as that in the polls.
If the economic news is as sub-optimal as is being suggested i.e. technical recession, inflation up ticking by just a fraction and mortgage rate reductions are already (the Nationwide) heading North again, a 19 might be seen on the dial. Still, a year less three weeks to go before the election, your team can turn it around.
It’s not about the vagaries of some pollsters,, given them the odd 19 here or there - the real story is the Tory position getting worse from every pollster over the course of weeks now. Delta has Tories down at 27 for two polls in a row, if this were a card game that would be worth loads more points than a people polling 19%. They are low and gap big on the Opinium too, in fact most pollsters are finding under 25% in contrast with a few weeks ago where PBers were asking “why some late 20’s others mid 20’s”.
There’s the polling story - sliding despite electioneering like crazy and putting money in pay packets. Why? Is it just the nation hating Sunak dragging the Tories down? 🤷♀️
Two things.
The most important one is that Rishi has been left holding the baby just before it does an enormous stinky poo. A lot of consequences- some he had a part in, others government decisions from before he was an MP, some just bad luck, have all landed at once. Only partly fair, but politics isn't fair. So any Conservative leader would struggle. Even someone with the wit of Johnson, the charm of Cameron, the empathy of Major and the determination of Thatcher.
Rishi has none of these things. Indeed, he barely has the empathy of Johnson, the determination of Cameron, the wit of Major and the charm of Thatcher. Just because he's been given a losing hand doesn't mean he isn't playing it really badly.
That’s not two things. That’s just one big blow below the rib cage. 🥊
They are promising Houses for everybody who needs one now. Unless Gove decided to just start the campaign and write the manifesto himself with whatever comes into his head. And differently than both Truss and Starmer said they’ll do it - these houses will appear without a single bulldozer needed to clear the blockers to houses being built.
As I keep saying, Labour will win the next election as the public (quite rightly) are only interested in turfing the Tories out, but the warnings are there loud and clear for what that Labour government is going to be like...
Indeed - how many other candidates like or worse than Ali are already selected who will gain seats at the next G E...
So what are you both actually saying? Suggesting shadowy parts of the Israeli government allowing the Hamas attack because they wanted this war, is clear antisemitism? Someone saying they hate Netanyahu and his politics with all the strength of their being, is also antisemitism?
Neither are examples of antisemitism are they? Don’t you think, in the shadow of a General Election this particular case has been a little frothed up for what it actually is?
Is this article anti-semitic?
"They were Israel's 'eyes on the border' - but their Hamas warnings went unheard"
You obviously don’t practice power gliding in wardrobes. It just shows intelligence gathering is a difficult business.
All we got at the moment though Sunil is hearsay, not a proper inquiry from a democratic country once a war is over. What exactly were the warnings from Egypt and Jordan? How specific? How different from other warnings they may give all the time? What was their own intelligence saying?
I hate conspiracy theories and all the time wasted on them, we should be dedicated to the truth. We mustn’t lose the truth. When the truth comes it must wash conspiracy out of peoples heads.
The truth is they misread the intelligence of the Yom Kippur war too, so that’s twice now. It shows that governments can take their eye off the ball. Should the Thatcher government have seen the invasion of the Falklands coming like the government of 78 had done? Should Johnson’s government have been laughing at the mess Italy was getting into over covid, rather than getting us prepared?
It’s just natural of humans not to expect the worst?
As I keep saying, Labour will win the next election as the public (quite rightly) are only interested in turfing the Tories out, but the warnings are there loud and clear for what that Labour government is going to be like...
Indeed - how many other candidates like or worse than Ali are already selected who will gain seats at the next G E...
So what are you both actually saying? Suggesting shadowy parts of the Israeli government allowing the Hamas attack because they wanted this war, is clear antisemitism? Someone saying they hate Netanyahu and his politics with all the strength of their being, is also antisemitism?
Neither are examples of antisemitism are they? Don’t you think, in the shadow of a General Election this particular case has been a little frothed up for what it actually is?
I’ll explain this situation to you, in case you are finding it confusing.
What the conspiracy theory is doing is airbrushing the abhorrent Hamas attack that started the war from the equation, by suggesting the Israeli government allowed the attack becuase they wanted war, so the war is the Israeli governments fault, not Hamas. Everyone who mouth and pushes as Ali done, that conspiracy theory, that is the disgusting thing they are doing - an attack on the actual truth of this, a truth they need to respect, especially if you have designs on a community leadership role.
But, disgusting though saying what Ali said is, it can be argued on its own as playing politics in a struggle for land and freedom, rather than being clearly antisemitic.
Politics being a complicated business it always is, Starmer does not need an Ali win. Starmer needs something properly antisemitic said by Ali, someone to grass Ali up maybe, whether it’s his own team or even the Daily Mail who finds it first - Starmer crazy as this şounds, needs something actually antisemitic from Ali to try him on.
As I keep saying, Labour will win the next election as the public (quite rightly) are only interested in turfing the Tories out, but the warnings are there loud and clear for what that Labour government is going to be like...
Indeed - how many other candidates like or worse than Ali are already selected who will gain seats at the next G E...
So what are you both actually saying? Suggesting shadowy parts of the Israeli government allowing the Hamas attack because they wanted this war, is clear antisemitism? Someone saying they hate Netanyahu and his politics with all the strength of their being, is also antisemitism?
Neither are examples of antisemitism are they? Don’t you think, in the shadow of a General Election this particular case has been a little frothed up for what it actually is?
A good post. There seems to be a strange group think on these boards that are as terrified of offending Israelis/Jews as Starmer is. In the world outside it's not what I'm seeing. Outside this bubble there seems to be as much revulsion at the casual disregard for the lives of children and non combatants as you'd expect whatever their ethnicity.
On here just a few brave voices are prepared to go against the gang and raise their heads usually with so many disclaimers it's like watching a bank commercial. It's become the atrocity that dares not speak its name. The turkey shoot that they describe as 'a war' because otherwise some ill informed thicko might call them anti semitic. I've just flicked through the thread and you're about the only one who's prepared to question without quivering. Keep posting.
Comments
Surely after enough scandals? And maybe watching the opposition research episode of West Wing?
@maitlis
Is Rochdale the first constituency to have three ex (pelled )Labour MPs on the same by election ballot ?
Edit: just to say, if they don't then... jeez. God help us all.
It’s all a bit of a shambles and the rules do seem archaic re replacing candidates . It certainly makes the by-election difficult to call .
Politicians say Palestinians sheltering in the southern city in Gaza have nowhere else to go
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/12/foreign-secretaries-and-diplomats-try-to-persuade-netanyahu-to-call-off-rafah-offensive
"Oh! It's Mister Bean!"
How I wept.
Paul Currie allegedly swore at and hounded out Israeli man who refused to applaud Palestinian flag
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2024/feb/12/soho-theatre-apologises-after-comedian-abused-jewish-audience-member
Is an apology adequate ?
If it were my theatre, that would be the end of his run. Disgusting.
Edit : Oddly enough, youtube just recommended me "Hate Is All You Need' by The Delgadoes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSMLx44DqFc
Stone age wall found at bottom of Baltic Sea ‘may be Europe’s oldest megastructure’
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/feb/12/stone-age-wall-found-at-bottom-of-baltic-sea-may-be-europes-oldest-megastructure
… If the wall was an ancient hunting lane, it was probably built more than 10,000 years ago and submerged with rising sea levels about 8,500 years ago.
“This puts the Blinkerwall into range of the oldest known examples of hunting architecture in the world and potentially makes it the oldest man-made megastructure in Europe,” the researchers said...
https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/stop-mowi-privatising-public-waters-in-scotland/
I just hope all other venues cancel his bookings. You can't give space to that sort of hate
I don't know if @NickPalmer is around but he has been interesting in the past about the extent to which electorates pay attention to candidates as opposed to parties.
It might be the first to have two though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wellingborough_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
@Dylan_Difford
·
5h
I'd say there's a good chance of the Tories going sub-20 in at least one poll in the next fortnight, which has the potential to trigger some really bad ideas.
But I did not know/remember they are same date!! 19 working days.
:-)
https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/
“Portal Kombat” also targets Germany and Poland"
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/02/12/france-uncovers-a-vast-russian-disinformation-campaign-in-europe
I wonder how good this disinformation campaign is, compared to - say - the trolls we get on PB.
Republicans against Trump
@RpsAgainstTrump
Tucker Carlson: “The city of Moscow…It’s so much nicer than any city in my country…It’s so much cleaner, and safer, and prettier -esthetically-…Than any city in the United States.”
GazaRochdaleThere will be a lot of this at the main event. General Elections tend to smoke out Tory Islamophobia
Nice Town Hall.
"Why the Azhar Ali affair is so damaging for Labour
The party’s delayed suspension of its Rochdale candidate for anti-Semitism has undermined its political and moral credibility.
By George Eaton"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2024/02/why-the-azhar-ali-affair-is-so-damaging-for-labour
Strangely enough, in many ways Ali comes across as a strong candidate, strong locally, looks, talks and walks the part. He even convinced when he explained why saying that conspiracy theory was daft and wrong of him.
But he has actually said something worse hasn’t he, something that actually is anti semitism in this new case? Mail don’t know what it is yet or they would have used it. In fact the vibe from today’s front pages is Starmer has made the right decision, and is in a stronger place for not being indecisive for longer.
It’s very much in Starmer’s interest Ali loses, so he doesn’t have to install another candidate to defeat MP Ali. Very very much in Starmer’s interest Ali loses.
I think much depends on the economic data this week and the by-election results .
- Labour in a mess over anti-semitism and green investment
- Conservatives in a mess over *waves vaguely*
- Lid Dems... ?
- SNP losing their minds over the name of a tea room at Edinburgh Castle
It's not great, is it?Major's worst score was an 18.5 from Gallup early in 1995.
Same reason why Biden is almost certainly the next Democratic Party nominee - quite frankly time is up to get other candidates into the primaries, so he has the delegates sewn up already effectively.
The closest I can think of where a party can in practice change candidates after close of nominations is the principle of 'write-in' candidates in America.
https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-figures-attack-edinburgh-castle-3210174
There’s the polling story - sliding despite electioneering like crazy and putting money in pay packets. Why? Is it just the nation hating Sunak dragging the Tories down? 🤷♀️
As I keep saying, Labour will win the next election as the public (quite rightly) are only interested in turfing the Tories out, but the warnings are there loud and clear for what that Labour government is going to be like...
The most important one is that Rishi has been left holding the baby just before it does an enormous stinky poo. A lot of consequences- some he had a part in, others government decisions from before he was an MP, some just
bad luck, have all landed at once. Only partly fair, but politics isn't fair. So any Conservative leader would struggle. Even someone with the wit of Johnson, the charm of Cameron, the empathy of Major and the determination of Thatcher.
Rishi has none of these things. Indeed, he barely has the empathy of Johnson, the determination of Cameron, the wit of Major and the charm of Thatcher. Just because he's been given a losing hand doesn't mean he isn't playing it really badly.
Neither are examples of antisemitism are they? Don’t you think, in the shadow of a General Election this particular case has been a little frothed up for what it actually is?
"They were Israel's 'eyes on the border' - but their Hamas warnings went unheard"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67958260
"No matter what happens in the 2024 election, it’s a period that will not be forgotten. But unlike a terrorist atrocity or pandemic, the crisis of American democracy is a crisis of our own making. It’s a manifestation of our powerful instincts for conflict, prejudice, and hatred—instincts that can lie dormant for many years before suddenly erupting all at once. The problem isn’t the “dystopia of ennui” Pinker mentioned, it’s that ennui is often one small step away from nihilism and extremism.
Fukuyama is right that there’s no viable ideological challenger to liberal democracy. But he had a suspicion in 1989 that liberal democracy wouldn’t be enough for many of its beneficiaries. They would crave conflict and destabilization; they would exchange the stability and prosperity of democracy for the thrill of ideological combat and blind partisan loyalty; they would search for new ways to get history started again. Even if these people ultimately fail to dislodge the democratic institutions that have held strong for so long—which is still the likeliest outcome—they will create a lot of chaos and misery along the way."
https://quillette.com/2024/02/12/chaos-at-the-end-of-history/
They are promising Houses for everybody who needs one now. Unless Gove decided to just start the campaign and write the manifesto himself with whatever comes into his head. And differently than both Truss and Starmer said they’ll do it - these houses will appear without a single bulldozer needed to clear the blockers to houses being built.
All we got at the moment though Sunil is hearsay, not a proper inquiry from a democratic country once a war is over. What exactly were the warnings from Egypt and Jordan? How specific? How different from other warnings they may give all the time? What was their own intelligence saying?
I hate conspiracy theories and all the time wasted on them, we should be dedicated to the truth. We mustn’t lose the truth. When the truth comes it must wash conspiracy out of peoples heads.
The truth is they misread the intelligence of the Yom Kippur war too, so that’s twice now. It shows that governments can take their eye off the ball. Should the Thatcher government have seen the invasion of the Falklands coming like the government of 78 had done? Should Johnson’s government have been laughing at the mess Italy was getting into over covid, rather than getting us prepared?
It’s just natural of humans not to expect the worst?
What the conspiracy theory is doing is airbrushing the abhorrent Hamas attack that started the war from the equation, by suggesting the Israeli government allowed the attack becuase they wanted war, so the war is the Israeli governments fault, not Hamas. Everyone who mouth and pushes as Ali done, that conspiracy theory, that is the disgusting thing they are doing - an attack on the actual truth of this, a truth they need to respect, especially if you have designs on a community leadership role.
But, disgusting though saying what Ali said is, it can be argued on its own as playing politics in a struggle for land and freedom, rather than being clearly antisemitic.
Politics being a complicated business it always is, Starmer does not need an Ali win. Starmer needs something properly antisemitic said by Ali, someone to grass Ali up maybe, whether it’s his own team or even the Daily Mail who finds it first - Starmer crazy as this şounds, needs something actually antisemitic from Ali to try him on.
"Every Monday, I work on an empty stomach"
"So do thousands of schoolkids"
https://www.private-eye.co.uk/
On here just a few brave voices are prepared to go against the gang and raise their heads usually with so many disclaimers it's like watching a bank commercial. It's become the atrocity that dares not speak its name. The turkey shoot that they describe as 'a war' because otherwise some ill informed thicko might call them anti semitic. I've just flicked through the thread and you're about the only one who's prepared to question without quivering. Keep posting.