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What’s happening with the polling “don’t knows” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 15 in General
What’s happening with the polling “don’t knows” – politicalbetting.com

The proportion of “don’t knows” in opinion polls is not particularly high at this stage: @PME_Politics https://t.co/nzUipk2OdJ pic.twitter.com/K2xyFWAlxz

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,186
    edited February 5
    First and foremost, 'those that don't know. don't vote'.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907
    "A lot of Don't Knows may not mean 'a big pool of potential returners'" sums up the situation, I think.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,654

    First and foremost, 'those that don't know. don't vote'.

    Those that don't vote, don't count.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907
    Carnyx said:

    First and foremost, 'those that don't know. don't vote'.

    Those that don't vote, don't count.
    Those that can't count, vote twice.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695
    Those that can't type, lurk.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,743
    edited February 5
    It would be interesting to see a longer run of data, but the story of 2015 was ex-Lib Dems who couldn't forgive their party for the coalition. And 2019 was Labour voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Angry Old Jez.

    My long term hypothesis is that voters who say "don't know" really mean "not you, but I'm too English to say it out loud".

    In which case, it's Colourful Metaphor Time for the Conservatives.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907

    We're deep into the long campaign, and parties are doing exercises rather than actually attacking. There appear to be a big chunk of voters who voted in 2019 who identify now as DK. Understandably, some excitable / desperate people imagine those simply going back from whence they came to shore up the Tory collapse.

    Anyone who has done doorstep politics will tell you that persuading don't know voters to actually vote is Hard Work. Primarily there needs to be something motivating them to step out of their house and head to the polling station. If you don't have that, forget it. Even if you do have that, its hard to motivate them early on polling day, and later on polling day they have settled into the evening routine.

    Those voters who are angry will vote - but have likely already identified with their new party. Some will be looking to protest vote and won't yet have plumped for ReFUK/Green/TrotSplinterUnity as they are waiting until there's a list of candidates.

    Most? Not voting. As well as the coming Tory ELE we will see a couple of million 2019 voters staying at home. Like in 1997 that will not be good news for the Tories...

    And it has a second order effect - it is very hard to motivate activists to put the work in if they know they are just going to get knocked back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,310
    Given most of those DKs voted Tory last time, the size of Starmer's majority or whether he gets any majority at all could depend on whether Sunak can squeeze them or not
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,399
    HYUFD said:

    Given most of those DKs voted Tory last time, the size of Starmer's majority or whether he gets any majority at all could depend on whether Sunak can squeeze them or not

    Richi couldn't squeeze a grape...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,399
    @JohnRentoul

    PM again the least popular cabinet attender apart from Michael Tomlinson, min for illegal immigration
  • I can't type but I don't lurk.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,570
    I was looking at this last week and thought that DK/WNV didn’t seem that much higher than previous years


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,437
    I think that betting on a low turnout is the way to go.

    Last four elections have all been in the 65-68% range, but 2005 was 61% and 2001 was 59%. Less than 60% might well happen this year.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,473
    edited February 5

    It would be interesting to see a longer run of data, but the story of 2015 was ex-Lib Dems who couldn't forgive their party for the coalition. And 2019 was Labour voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Angry Old Jez.

    My long term hypothesis is that voters who say "don't know" really mean "not you, but I'm too English to say it out loud".

    In which case, it's Colourful Metaphor Time for the Conservatives.

    It's a pity there's no spreads available. I'd like to buy LAB seats while there is still a reasonable body of opinion thinking it won't be a landslide. By the time spreads go up I bet landslide will be the consensus view and the value won't be there.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,591
    On the Local Authority thing in the last thread -

    For balance, Scotland is also guilty of undermining councils. Increased statutory duties, large real terms cuts in the grant from the SG, frozen council tax dictated by central government.

    Councils have decomposed into a impotent bureaucracy, where local councillors receive extreme levels of abuse for desperately funneling cash towards the areas most vulnerable to litigation.

    Either devolve tax raising and spending powers to councils or abolish them entirely.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,924
    Dura_Ace said:

    Some of the Don't Knows must be shy tories who are just too fucking ashamed to admit it.

    Probably yeah.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,529

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,827
    a
    mwadams said:

    Carnyx said:

    First and foremost, 'those that don't know. don't vote'.

    Those that don't vote, don't count.
    Those that can't count, vote twice.
    That which is dead, votes thrice.

    At least in Northern Ireland.

    I recall anger at one trawl through the electoral rolls there. Which was characterised as a very necrophobia exercise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,478
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Did they choo choo choose you ?
    Or did they just vote the line, as they were trained ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,478
    If @Leon is looking for a new travel theme, this thread on rock cut architecture might prove of interest.
    Has he visited Ellora ?

    ...In any case, nowhere has rock-cut architecture been perfected and developed as in India — here there are more rock-cut buildings than anywhere else on earth.

    The most famous example is the vast complex at Ellora, a place that defies explanation and fires the imagination.

    https://twitter.com/culturaltutor/status/1754172949257458076
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Personal Liability for Everything Here You Come :wink: .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,827
    Eabhal said:

    On the Local Authority thing in the last thread -

    For balance, Scotland is also guilty of undermining councils. Increased statutory duties, large real terms cuts in the grant from the SG, frozen council tax dictated by central government.

    Councils have decomposed into a impotent bureaucracy, where local councillors receive extreme levels of abuse for desperately funneling cash towards the areas most vulnerable to litigation.

    Either devolve tax raising and spending powers to councils or abolish them entirely.

    Creating statutory obligations is a form of populist politics - "I'm virtuous. At no apparent cost"

    Much like gold plating regulations so that things like child care end up being only affordable for the well off.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,529
    Eabhal said:

    On the Local Authority thing in the last thread -

    For balance, Scotland is also guilty of undermining councils. Increased statutory duties, large real terms cuts in the grant from the SG, frozen council tax dictated by central government.

    Councils have decomposed into a impotent bureaucracy, where local councillors receive extreme levels of abuse for desperately funneling cash towards the areas most vulnerable to litigation.

    Either devolve tax raising and spending powers to councils or abolish them entirely.

    And have a decent electoral system; one which doesn’t give all the seats in a ward to a party getting around 40% of the votes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,673
    Eabhal said:

    or abolish them entirely.

    One thing I have no idea about is why we have both district and county level in rural areas. My Dad's a councillor in a unitary (Coventry) and the system of having one councillor and council for your area simply seems so much more efficient than where I am/ I'm also convinced it's why my council tax is a bit higher than the counterfactual of similar banded properties in neighbouring unitaries (Rotherham/Doncaster) compared to Bassetlaw.
    I think a much stronger argument can be made for keeping parish/town rather than two levels at district/council as the responsibilities of those councils are far less and if you really want to get involved it's relatively easy to get elected and you can decide whether to have an annual village fete or whatever.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,827
    edited February 5
    MattW said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Personal Liability for Everything Here You Come :wink: .
    Wasn't there that comment from the judge in the Kids Company case that holding the trustees liable for their liabilities was unfair and would prevent trustees coming forward in future. Or does that only apply to the NU10K?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,840
    Quite a contrast:

    French service sector downturn extends into January, marking its longest period of contraction in over a decade

    French service sector business activity falls for eighth month in a row
    New business intakes shrink, but confidence picks up
    Price pressures intensify


    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5a01d5c9b88a40c79f751aeab8b1d727

    Strongest service sector performance since May 2023

    Faster rises in business activity and new orders
    Renewed upturn in staffing levels
    Cost inflation eases to joint-lowest since February 2021


    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/983758bd175848c78f10343dc3ec8e84

    So what are the consequences of the failure of Macronism ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732
    isam said:

    I was looking at this last week and thought that DK/WNV didn’t seem that much higher than previous years

    I'm imagining all the Reform people who can't type shouting at the computer through a megaphone to make sure it understands them.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,712

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Congratulations! Let us know the date for your next Diesel Gala - and see if you can get a Class 55 down there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,673
    edited February 5

    Eabhal said:

    On the Local Authority thing in the last thread -

    For balance, Scotland is also guilty of undermining councils. Increased statutory duties, large real terms cuts in the grant from the SG, frozen council tax dictated by central government.

    Councils have decomposed into a impotent bureaucracy, where local councillors receive extreme levels of abuse for desperately funneling cash towards the areas most vulnerable to litigation.

    Either devolve tax raising and spending powers to councils or abolish them entirely.

    Creating statutory obligations is a form of populist politics - "I'm virtuous. At no apparent cost"

    Much like gold plating regulations so that things like child care end up being only affordable for the well off.
    Good childcare doesn't come cheap. Whilst I'm not at the Max/Eek/Casino levels of salary, my better half earns roughly the same as me (Both a bit under 50k) so we can just about suck it up till we get the September 15 hrs help.

    It's those who earn just that bit too much for UC support that I think it's the roughest on.

    Also the April child tax is very annoying though that'll be gone for April 2023 children, my daughter being the last year (2022) to suffer that particular wrinkle in the system.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,532

    Quite a contrast:

    French service sector downturn extends into January, marking its longest period of contraction in over a decade

    French service sector business activity falls for eighth month in a row
    New business intakes shrink, but confidence picks up
    Price pressures intensify


    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5a01d5c9b88a40c79f751aeab8b1d727

    Strongest service sector performance since May 2023

    Faster rises in business activity and new orders
    Renewed upturn in staffing levels
    Cost inflation eases to joint-lowest since February 2021


    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/983758bd175848c78f10343dc3ec8e84

    So what are the consequences of the failure of Macronism ?

    RSI for a significant number of PBers?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732
    FPT:

    Sad news for Rugby Union fans, especially Welsh ones. Barry John has died. He was 79.

    Well I thought he had already succumbed. He was a big drinker, lost his licence a few times. Quite a sad final decade, which is unfortunate. He was a great outside half, but retired young at his peak. In our household though he was no Phil Bennett.

    Quite a few of the1970s Welsh Triple Crowners are falling off the perch in their mid and late seventies. I genuinely expect the vast intake of Double Dragon, Reverend James and Brains S.A.has taken its toll. They should have listened to the Minister in Chapel on Sunday, played their rugby and avoided the demon drink.

    Very sad.
    A pub in the town where I live used to get Rev James as a guest beer every so often. Very good drink indeed.
    Sadly the pub hasn’t got a wheelchair-friendly entrance so I haven’t been able to check whether they still have it for a year or so.
    Have you considered asking them to make reasonable adjustments, as is the legal requirement?

    Or is there a good reason why it is impossible?

    (If they are like most places, they will do nothing and happily ignore the rules, until someone makes them do something.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,532
    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    How's your might have to pop your vote Labour cherry thing going?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,570
    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    Plenty of work for discrimination finding legal eagles
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,473

    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    How's your might have to pop your vote Labour cherry thing going?
    This will have warded him off, hopefully.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,827
    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    On the Local Authority thing in the last thread -

    For balance, Scotland is also guilty of undermining councils. Increased statutory duties, large real terms cuts in the grant from the SG, frozen council tax dictated by central government.

    Councils have decomposed into a impotent bureaucracy, where local councillors receive extreme levels of abuse for desperately funneling cash towards the areas most vulnerable to litigation.

    Either devolve tax raising and spending powers to councils or abolish them entirely.

    Creating statutory obligations is a form of populist politics - "I'm virtuous. At no apparent cost"

    Much like gold plating regulations so that things like child care end up being only affordable for the well off.
    Good childcare doesn't come cheap. Whilst I'm not at the Max/Eek/Casino levels of salary, my better half earns roughly the same as me (Both a bit under 50k) so we can just about suck it up till we get the September 15 hrs help.

    It's those who earn just that bit too much for UC support that I think it's the roughest on.

    Also the April child tax is very annoying though that'll be gone for April 2023 children, my daughter being the last year (2022) to suffer that particular wrinkle in the system.
    One interesting calculation for many families is this : Wife (yes, I know) considers going back to work.
    Is she going to make more than minimum wage after childcare costs?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    edited February 5

    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    How's your might have to pop your vote Labour cherry thing going?
    lol. Yes. Abstention looking more likely, right now

    Weird thing is I am pleased with some of the economic stuff, don't mind any of their foreign policy stuff, but this Wokeness is genuinely calamitous

    They are going down the explosively stupid equity route, as far as I can see: ie if there is any pay differential between ethnic groups in a profession, that is ipso facto proof of racism in the system. There must be equality of OUTCOME not just opportunity

    So there can't be any other reason why Jews do better in law or Indians in STEM, if there is a difference between them and say Roma it must be systemic racism. Utter madness
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,827
    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    What have the Trans Gay Illegal Alien AI Pop Singers done now?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075
    edited February 5

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Once a trustee has absorbed all this

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications

    they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.

    (CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Did they choo choo choose you ?
    Or did they just vote the line, as they were trained ?
    Either way, he must be chuffed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,532
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    How's your might have to pop your vote Labour cherry thing going?
    This will have warded him off, hopefully.
    I initially read 'warded him off' as, er, something else.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,591
    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    or abolish them entirely.

    One thing I have no idea about is why we have both district and county level in rural areas. My Dad's a councillor in a unitary (Coventry) and the system of having one councillor and council for your area simply seems so much more efficient than where I am/ I'm also convinced it's why my council tax is a bit higher than the counterfactual of similar banded properties in neighbouring unitaries (Rotherham/Doncaster) compared to Bassetlaw.
    I think a much stronger argument can be made for keeping parish/town rather than two levels at district/council as the responsibilities of those councils are far less and if you really want to get involved it's relatively easy to get elected and you can decide whether to have an annual village fete or whatever.
    I have no idea what nonsense you get up to England. I wasted 10 minutes trying to understand it a few years ago.

    (Clackmannanshire enters the chat)
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907
    algarkirk said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Once a trustee has absorbed all this

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications

    they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.

    (CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
    This is bananas. Why would anyone in their right mind sign up to this?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    edited February 5
    Nigelb said:

    If @Leon is looking for a new travel theme, this thread on rock cut architecture might prove of interest.
    Has he visited Ellora ?

    ...In any case, nowhere has rock-cut architecture been perfected and developed as in India — here there are more rock-cut buildings than anywhere else on earth.

    The most famous example is the vast complex at Ellora, a place that defies explanation and fires the imagination.

    https://twitter.com/culturaltutor/status/1754172949257458076

    Never been to Ellora, looks marvellous

    That interesting thread misses out the salt mines of Katowice with their incredible underground shrines and also the eerie rock cut underground opal-mining city of Coober Pedy in Oz - one of the strangest places I have been (slept in an underground hotel)
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907

    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    What have the Trans Gay Illegal Alien AI Pop Singers done now?
    "2,000 years ago one man got nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be if everyone was nice to each other for a change."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,478
    Latest AI news - ChatGPT cracks hypocrisy.

    https://twitter.com/danielgross/status/1754202065029550463
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907
    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Once a trustee has absorbed all this

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications

    they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.

    (CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
    This is bananas. Why would anyone in their right mind sign up to this?
    This is a prime example that makes the point in the last thread header!
  • Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Congratulations! Let us know the date for your next Diesel Gala - and see if you can get a Class 55 down there.
    Thanks. There were 200+ people at the AGM, which was a large crowd, and I had a 3-minute speech to deliver at the hustings with questions after.

    However, given I have a lifelong love and involvement with the railway I seemed to go down ok. No votes against me in the room, and only two abstentions, with everyone else in favour.

    Quite pleasing.
    Good morning

    Many congratulations and from my earliest memories, to the day I signalled the flying sotsman past the signal box (c1955) near Berwick-upon-Tweed, to witnessing Mallard in full steam going through Berwick onto the Royal Border Bridge, to trips on the SVR, the Strathspey Railway, Llangollen Railway and others I have had a lifetime love affair with steam trains

    I am sure you will make an excellent Trustee
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,712

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Congratulations! Let us know the date for your next Diesel Gala - and see if you can get a Class 55 down there.
    Thanks. There were 200+ people at the AGM, which was a large crowd, and I had a 3-minute speech to deliver at the hustings with questions after.

    However, given I have a lifelong love and involvement with the railway I seemed to go down ok. No votes against me in the room, and only two abstentions, with everyone else in favour.

    Quite pleasing.
    I have had a lifelong love of your railway, some of my happiest childhood memories and I've taken my own kids there. It's a very special place, best of luck with the role and congratulations for stepping up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    Nigelb said:

    Latest AI news - ChatGPT cracks hypocrisy.

    https://twitter.com/danielgross/status/1754202065029550463

    Did you see the alarming story below that??

    "An HK-based employee of a multinational firm wired out $25M after attending a video call where all employees were deepfaked, including the CFO.

    He first got an email which was suspicious but then was reassured on the video call with his “coworkers.”"

    https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1754168239574368342?s=20
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,278
    mwadams said:

    "A lot of Don't Knows may not mean 'a big pool of potential returners'" sums up the situation, I think.

    I agree. The Tories had an unusually large number of first-time voters in 2019 and have done an awful lot to put them off since. It's not at all surprising that many more 2019 Con voters are now DK than 2019 voters from other parties.

    It would be interesting to see the figures broken down by 2017 or 2015 votes, which are probably a better baseline.

    I still think that everything is pointing towards a large Labour landslide, albeit with quite a wide spread of possible outcomes on both sides of the distribution curve.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Once a trustee has absorbed all this

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications

    they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.

    (CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
    This is bananas. Why would anyone in their right mind sign up to this?
    I was approached to be a trustee for a new UK charity (under E&W law) to form a UK organisation of an international group to directly fun activities here rather than everything having to go through the umbrella German non-profit. I was surprised to be asked as I wouldn't have put myself in the top most senior/active UK people at the time. On reading through what I'd be signing up to, I realised why those other people were passing it on and declined!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,591
    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075
    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Once a trustee has absorbed all this

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications

    they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.

    (CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
    This is bananas. Why would anyone in their right mind sign up to this?
    It's a branch of 'The Process State' as described recently by Malmesbury. It's not, of course, that anyone reads all this, it is so that in all circumstances short of the end of the world the Charity Commission have something in writing with which to prove that the elderly trustee of the Great Snoring Duck Pond Society is not only in error but ought to have known he was in error when dredging with a rake without a risk assessment being agreed by the trustees.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,614
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Once a trustee has absorbed all this

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications

    they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.

    (CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
    This is bananas. Why would anyone in their right mind sign up to this?
    This is a prime example that makes the point in the last thread header!
    Forty years ago it was conventional wisdom that charities should become more 'businesslike'. So now, alas, they are.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,827
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Once a trustee has absorbed all this

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications

    they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.

    (CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
    This is bananas. Why would anyone in their right mind sign up to this?
    This is a prime example that makes the point in the last thread header!
    You have to remember that fraudsters and other bad actors cannot complete 50 multipage documents.

    So the process provides a shield like steel against fraud, theft, safety, safeguarding etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,673
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Latest AI news - ChatGPT cracks hypocrisy.

    https://twitter.com/danielgross/status/1754202065029550463

    Did you see the alarming story below that??

    "An HK-based employee of a multinational firm wired out $25M after attending a video call where all employees were deepfaked, including the CFO.

    He first got an email which was suspicious but then was reassured on the video call with his “coworkers.”"

    https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1754168239574368342?s=20
    Looks like AI could be the saviour of the in person business meeting long term. More difficult to fake an actual real life person than a video.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    edited February 5
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Latest AI news - ChatGPT cracks hypocrisy.

    https://twitter.com/danielgross/status/1754202065029550463

    Did you see the alarming story below that??

    "An HK-based employee of a multinational firm wired out $25M after attending a video call where all employees were deepfaked, including the CFO.

    He first got an email which was suspicious but then was reassured on the video call with his “coworkers.”"

    https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1754168239574368342?s=20
    Looks like AI could be the saviour of the in person business meeting long term. More difficult to fake an actual real life person than a video.
    Good point

    Also, long term, might it impact Working From Home? How easy will it be to "fake yourself" and apparently attend Teams and make calls and send emails when in fact you've just got ChatGPT5 set up to do everything and you are on a 4 month wanking holiday in Puglia
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075
    edited February 5

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Oddly enough the same last twelve months has seen this normally Tory voter decide to vote Labour in the next GE for the first time in 50 years. Any indication of a return to sympathy with their friends in Hamas would change me back again, and possibly a few million others.

    To seek to govern is to be willing to make choices.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,129

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    bit confusing - the top numbers seem to be "British Muslims who backed Labour at the 2019 general election"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/05/british-muslims-losing-trust-in-labour-over-its-handling-of-israel-gaza-war
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,827
    algarkirk said:

    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Once a trustee has absorbed all this

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications

    they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.

    (CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
    This is bananas. Why would anyone in their right mind sign up to this?
    It's a branch of 'The Process State' as described recently by Malmesbury. It's not, of course, that anyone reads all this, it is so that in all circumstances short of the end of the world the Charity Commission have something in writing with which to prove that the elderly trustee of the Great Snoring Duck Pond Society is not only in error but ought to have known he was in error when dredging with a rake without a risk assessment being agreed by the trustees.
    Nonsense. To start with the trustee would have had to fill out the 2,544 page form on contingency planning for the End Of The World. This would need to specify the training in rake handling, risk assessment methodology, risk assessment for each scenario - Zombies, Alien invasion, Alien AI invasion etc.

    The issue of Xenophobia and Necrophobia expressed in these sections is an ongoing concern for the Charities Commission.
  • Border Target Operating Model week 1.

    Can't get veterinary certificates issued in France, can't send this week's shipment of medium-risk meat products. So job stopped. We have perhaps 36 hours to get this moving or we're in danger of losing big chunks of the business we've built up in the UK over the last few years.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,591
    In 2024, we might have a Tory election campaign based entirely on religion. Sunak attacks the CofE on dodgy asylum conversions, while funding attack ads claiming Labour has betrayed Gaza:

    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,952
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    How's your might have to pop your vote Labour cherry thing going?
    lol. Yes. Abstention looking more likely, right now

    Weird thing is I am pleased with some of the economic stuff, don't mind any of their foreign policy stuff, but this Wokeness is genuinely calamitous

    They are going down the explosively stupid equity route, as far as I can see: ie if there is any pay differential between ethnic groups in a profession, that is ipso facto proof of racism in the system. There must be equality of OUTCOME not just opportunity

    So there can't be any other reason why Jews do better in law or Indians in STEM, if there is a difference between them and say Roma it must be systemic racism. Utter madness
    Proponents of "equity" rarely seem to acknowledge that equalising outcomes has to be a two way street. If there are minority groups that are overrepresented in prestige fields (and clearly there are), then firms/professions logically would need a strategy for limiting the numbers they hire from those groups, as well as for increasing representation for underrepresented minorities. It's a zero sum game.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,591
    edited February 5

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Full article from ITV political correspondent.

    Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&


    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,437
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Latest AI news - ChatGPT cracks hypocrisy.

    https://twitter.com/danielgross/status/1754202065029550463

    Did you see the alarming story below that??

    "An HK-based employee of a multinational firm wired out $25M after attending a video call where all employees were deepfaked, including the CFO.

    He first got an email which was suspicious but then was reassured on the video call with his “coworkers.”"

    https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1754168239574368342?s=20
    That’s actually scary as hell. The victim, a company accountant, was the only real person on the call, his ‘colleagues’ all being artificial images. They discussed a new project and the CFO asked the victim to transfer the money.

    Remember this stuff doesn’t need to be perfect, it only needs to be good enough to fool someone who’s not expecting it.

    It will definitely wake up a lot of companies when it comes to processes around bank accounts and records of meetings.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,673

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Full article from ITV political correspondent.

    Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&


    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
    It is very surprising that no British muslims were undecided when polled in 2019.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Labour’s new Woke race policies are catastrophic

    It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here

    How's your might have to pop your vote Labour cherry thing going?
    lol. Yes. Abstention looking more likely, right now

    Weird thing is I am pleased with some of the economic stuff, don't mind any of their foreign policy stuff, but this Wokeness is genuinely calamitous

    They are going down the explosively stupid equity route, as far as I can see: ie if there is any pay differential between ethnic groups in a profession, that is ipso facto proof of racism in the system. There must be equality of OUTCOME not just opportunity

    So there can't be any other reason why Jews do better in law or Indians in STEM, if there is a difference between them and say Roma it must be systemic racism. Utter madness
    Proponents of "equity" rarely seem to acknowledge that equalising outcomes has to be a two way street. If there are minority groups that are overrepresented in prestige fields (and clearly there are), then firms/professions logically would need a strategy for limiting the numbers they hire from those groups, as well as for increasing representation for underrepresented minorities. It's a zero sum game.
    Of course. Which led to Ivy League universities having maximum quotas for Jews and East Asians and now whites, drastically limiting their numbers, so as to let in more blacks and Hispanics, creating a legal minefield and an entire, parasitic industry dedicated to getting round court judgements that keep striking down this racist discrimination

    Read across for the corporate sector and everywhere else

    And Labour has looked at this poisonous mess and thought Yeah, let's have all that in Britain



  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Latest AI news - ChatGPT cracks hypocrisy.

    https://twitter.com/danielgross/status/1754202065029550463

    Did you see the alarming story below that??

    "An HK-based employee of a multinational firm wired out $25M after attending a video call where all employees were deepfaked, including the CFO.

    He first got an email which was suspicious but then was reassured on the video call with his “coworkers.”"

    https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1754168239574368342?s=20
    That’s actually scary as hell. The victim, a company accountant, was the only real person on the call, his ‘colleagues’ all being artificial images. They discussed a new project and the CFO asked the victim to transfer the money.

    Remember this stuff doesn’t need to be perfect, it only needs to be good enough to fool someone who’s not expecting it.

    It will definitely wake up a lot of companies when it comes to processes around bank accounts and records of meetings.
    Yes, all the frightening Black Mirror-y scifi dystopias around AI are now coming true, thick and fast
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,703

    Border Target Operating Model week 1.

    Can't get veterinary certificates issued in France, can't send this week's shipment of medium-risk meat products. So job stopped. We have perhaps 36 hours to get this moving or we're in danger of losing big chunks of the business we've built up in the UK over the last few years.

    Are you absolutely sure you are thinking positively enough.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,934
    MattW said:

    Anyway, I was elected at the weekend; so I'm now a Board trustee of a heritage railway.

    Got to deliver now. Gulp.

    Is it a charity? If so, have you had a look at the Charity Commission’s website?
    Personal Liability for Everything Here You Come :wink: .
    It needs to be a limited company as well as a charity.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,591
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Full article from ITV political correspondent.

    Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&


    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
    It is very surprising that no British muslims were undecided when polled in 2019.
    Survation's take: https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1754449087045263571?t=S_6ssV8qo8g3yFpC8lC6Qg&s=19

    This is the second poll in short succession where digging into the sample and results presentation yields different conclusions to that posted by the media. Is this going to be an election of "creative" polling?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,129
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Full article from ITV political correspondent.

    Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&


    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
    It is very surprising that no British muslims were undecided when polled in 2019.
    Think it's supposed to be a poll of muslims who actually voted in 2019. Still a striking result.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,192
    I spend nearly all my time in two classic Tory areas (Godalming and rural Oxfordshire) and although I know a few people who are still planning to vote Tory, even they are doing it with a wry smile and don't dispute that it's time for a period in Opposition to reflect on their future direction. Most of my Tory friends are now either not planning to vote ("constructive abstention", one calls it) or switching, with most of those coming straight over to Labour, for the slightly dismaying reason that they don't see any difference between us and the LibDems. The LibDem literature is overwhelmingly focused on getting tactical votes, but that's fading in effectiveness, as people feel the Tories are goners anyway so they might as well just vote for the alternative Government. Both Labour and the LibDems arguably need to switch gear to a more positive and distinctive message to seal their respective deals, though it's awfully tempting to just keep the focus on how useless the Tories are.

    There's a UK Polling Report poll on the Kingswood by-election next week predicting a Labour gain, but I'm not sure it's a real poll o just a projection from national polls?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,591
    I think ITV will have to issue an apology for the presentation of this. Eeeek.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,673
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Full article from ITV political correspondent.

    Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&


    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
    It is very surprising that no British muslims were undecided when polled in 2019.
    If you correct the poll to strip out undecideds

    Lab 60% -26%
    Con 8% -2%
    L Dem 8% +7%
    SNP 4% +2%
    Green 14% +13%
    Other 6% +6%

    If you strip others and undecideds out :.

    Lab 63% -23%
    Con 9% -1%
    LD 9% +8%
    SNP 4% +2%
    Green 15% +14%

    If you apply the "Will eventually come home" theory to undecideds it is:

    Lab 68% -18%
    Con 9% -1%
    LD 7% +6%
    SNP 4% +2%
    Green 12% +11%




  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,437
    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Full article from ITV political correspondent.

    Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&


    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
    It is very surprising that no British muslims were undecided when polled in 2019.
    Survation's take: https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1754449087045263571?t=S_6ssV8qo8g3yFpC8lC6Qg&s=19

    This is the second poll in short succession where digging into the sample and results presentation yields different conclusions to that posted by the media. Is this going to be an election of "creative" polling?
    Almost certainly, especially on controversial subjects. There’s a fine line between adding your spin and misreading the statistics.

    It could be worse though, the American political media is going to be totally full of fake news between now and November, and they don’t have a polling council.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,743
    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Full article from ITV political correspondent.

    Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&


    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
    It is very surprising that no British muslims were undecided when polled in 2019.
    Survation's take: https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1754449087045263571?t=S_6ssV8qo8g3yFpC8lC6Qg&s=19

    This is the second poll in short succession where digging into the sample and results presentation yields different conclusions to that posted by the media. Is this going to be an election of "creative" polling?
    Policy-driven data, rather than data-driven policy.

    It's probably always been there, but two particularly shameless examples in a month or so is a bad thing.

    (Besides, the important thing about the Labour Muslim vote is it's geographic concentration in seats that mostly aren't remotely at risk this time round.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907
    edited February 5
    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes, it really is a thing. Yes, it is *deeply* annoying, when they are rewatching the same TikTok boomerang again and again.

    ETA: I actually don't mind if it is a call at sensible volume - it's no different from a conversation. It's the expectation that we all listen to your soundtrack that is insufferable.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,712
    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes it is a thing unfortunately. In South London at least. People seem to use each new shift in technology as an opportunity to be more obnoxious and thoughtless to their fellow human beings.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,180
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Latest AI news - ChatGPT cracks hypocrisy.

    https://twitter.com/danielgross/status/1754202065029550463

    Did you see the alarming story below that??

    "An HK-based employee of a multinational firm wired out $25M after attending a video call where all employees were deepfaked, including the CFO.

    He first got an email which was suspicious but then was reassured on the video call with his “coworkers.”"

    https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1754168239574368342?s=20
    That’s actually scary as hell. The victim, a company accountant, was the only real person on the call, his ‘colleagues’ all being artificial images. They discussed a new project and the CFO asked the victim to transfer the money.

    Remember this stuff doesn’t need to be perfect, it only needs to be good enough to fool someone who’s not expecting it.

    It will definitely wake up a lot of companies when it comes to processes around bank accounts and records of meetings.
    Sounds to me like this guy got duped by a phishing email and then concocted a cock-and-bull story about Deep Fake to make himself seem less stupid.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,916
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes, it really is a thing. Yes, it is *deeply* annoying, when they are rewatching the same TikTok boomerang again and again.
    Seriously?

    On buses only? Or elsewhere? There are people on that thread saying it is everywhere

    I take a few Tubes and trains and I've not seen it there. Yet
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,743
    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes, and it's ghastly and it's not just teenagers.

    Noticeable uptick in shouty aggression on the Lizzie Line as well. Everyone is just fed up.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 8,924

    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes it is a thing unfortunately. In South London at least. People seem to use each new shift in technology as an opportunity to be more obnoxious and thoughtless to their fellow human beings.
    I use the bus a lot and I can't say I have come across this at all. I am but a mere provincial though. Perhaps we have got this to look forward to?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,552
    "Don't know" is the answer people give when they believe they should vote / have always or usually voted, but are unlikely to in this election. The reason that seems to predominantly be people who voted Tory in 2019 is that no one is offering what the Tories offered in 2019, and the Tories are shit. Starmer is trying to tack to the right on social issues and is still wedded to austerity - so he is winning some Tory floaters and those one off Tory voting "Red Wall" voters. He isn't winning dyed in the wool Tories, who are either DK or still voting blue, and he isn't winning those voters who are extremely right wing on social issues (immigration, wokeness, etc) but who would like to see social spending increase (but only for white people, even if they don't say that out loud).
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907
    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes, it really is a thing. Yes, it is *deeply* annoying, when they are rewatching the same TikTok boomerang again and again.
    Seriously?

    On buses only? Or elsewhere? There are people on that thread saying it is everywhere

    I take a few Tubes and trains and I've not seen it there. Yet
    I've not experienced it on a train - or rather, on the occasions that I have, it has been acceptable to say "sorry, could you put your headphones on".

    It happens all the time on buses. (Which I take almost every day.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,673

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    Full article from ITV political correspondent.

    Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&


    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
    It is very surprising that no British muslims were undecided when polled in 2019.
    Survation's take: https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1754449087045263571?t=S_6ssV8qo8g3yFpC8lC6Qg&s=19

    This is the second poll in short succession where digging into the sample and results presentation yields different conclusions to that posted by the media. Is this going to be an election of "creative" polling?
    Policy-driven data, rather than data-driven policy.

    It's probably always been there, but two particularly shameless examples in a month or so is a bad thing.

    (Besides, the important thing about the Labour Muslim vote is it's geographic concentration in seats that mostly aren't remotely at risk this time round.)
    If you take the ~ 9 to 14 odd % swing to the greens as the most likely will actually happen from this poll then it points to an improvement in the efficiency of the Labour vote as yes they'll have places like Keighley long in the bag from the Tories if things continue as they are.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907

    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes, and it's ghastly and it's not just teenagers.

    Noticeable uptick in shouty aggression on the Lizzie Line as well. Everyone is just fed up.
    That's an important point. It is absolutely not just teenagers.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,351

    I spend nearly all my time in two classic Tory areas (Godalming and rural Oxfordshire) and although I know a few people who are still planning to vote Tory, even they are doing it with a wry smile and don't dispute that it's time for a period in Opposition to reflect on their future direction. Most of my Tory friends are now either not planning to vote ("constructive abstention", one calls it) or switching, with most of those coming straight over to Labour, for the slightly dismaying reason that they don't see any difference between us and the LibDems. The LibDem literature is overwhelmingly focused on getting tactical votes, but that's fading in effectiveness, as people feel the Tories are goners anyway so they might as well just vote for the alternative Government. Both Labour and the LibDems arguably need to switch gear to a more positive and distinctive message to seal their respective deals, though it's awfully tempting to just keep the focus on how useless the Tories are.

    There's a UK Polling Report poll on the Kingswood by-election next week predicting a Labour gain, but I'm not sure it's a real poll o just a projection from national polls?

    I think your comment re the LDs is worryingly accurate @NickPalmer. They should pick up a lot of seats with the anti Tory vote and tactical voting, but with the polls as they are I suspect that in many of these seats instead of the LDs winning it will result in a lot of Tory holds and a big Labour vote, with the possibility of the occasional Labour win coming through from 3rd.

    I also agree it is sad that people can't see a distinction between the two parties, which isn't helped by the LD (necessary) tactical voting message.

    I hope I am wrong as I want the LDs to do well, but if Labour rack up huge votes in places like Guildford and Godalming it is going to be depressing. In the past it has always been easy to squeeze these. Not sure anymore.
  • I fucking hate Lloyds and Santander, they’ve ruined my week but allowed me to be smug, still not as bad as HSBC who were the bankers for the IRGC.

    Shares in Santander and Lloyds fell after the Financial Times (FT) newspaper reported that Iran used accounts held at the banks in the UK to covertly move money around the world as part of a sanctions-evasion scheme backed by Iran's intelligence services.

    Lloyds and Santander UK provided accounts to British front companies secretly owned by a sanctioned Iranian petrochemicals company based in London, according to documents seen by the FT.

    Shares in Madrid-based parent Santander fell as much as 5.8% and were down 5.7% at 0936 GMT, while shares in Lloyds declined 1.8%. Santander shares rose more than 6% last week following 2023 earnings that beat forecasts.

    "The market must be realising that they may be fined," said Nuria Alvarez, an analyst at Madrid-based broker Renta 4


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shares-santander-lloyds-fall-report-085306742.html
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,101
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes, it really is a thing. Yes, it is *deeply* annoying, when they are rewatching the same TikTok boomerang again and again.
    Seriously?

    On buses only? Or elsewhere? There are people on that thread saying it is everywhere

    I take a few Tubes and trains and I've not seen it there. Yet
    I've not experienced it on a train - or rather, on the occasions that I have, it has been acceptable to say "sorry, could you put your headphones on".

    It happens all the time on buses. (Which I take almost every day.)
    Hm. I'd say fifteen years ago this sort of thing was irritatingly ubiquitous. Smartphones were new and exciting and to many teenagers it simply hadn't occurred to them that blasting their shite out to the whole bus might not be welcome. Seriously. They thought they were brightening everyone's journey. In my experience, it's tailed off considerably since then.
    That said, since I moved outside the M60 I get buses a lot less than I used to. But I get trams A LOT and it happens a lot less on trams than it used to too.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,647
    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Is this really a thing now in the UK?

    "Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.

    This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"

    https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20

    I've not encountered this

    However,

    1. I rarely take buses

    2. I am only in the UK half the year

    Yes, it really is a thing. Yes, it is *deeply* annoying, when they are rewatching the same TikTok boomerang again and again.
    Seriously?

    On buses only? Or elsewhere? There are people on that thread saying it is everywhere

    I take a few Tubes and trains and I've not seen it there. Yet
    I’ve noticed very few people these days seem to leave the room or, for example get up from a table at a social occasion and move away, to take calls. I find it really rude to sit there having a phone call in other people’s presence (apart from at work obviously) and noticed it massively increase probably over the least ten years or so.

    I might just be a misery guts but it’s quite obnoxious.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,552

    Labour's support among British Muslims has HALVED since 2019 according to a dramatic new Survation poll

    Labour: 43% (-43)
    Conservative: 6% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    Green: 10% (+9)
    Other: 4% (+4)
    Undecided: 23% (N/A)

    38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months

    While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election

    Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,

    Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1

    I mean, whilst I think it is significant that British Muslims are unhappy with the Labour party - they make up like 7% of the population of the UK and likely less than that in the electorate. They're an important constituency in some specific seats, mostly urban seats in London, Birmingham and Manc, as well as some places like Watford (where ~13% are Muslim) and Luton (where a third of people are Muslim) - but for the national picture it won't mean much for most seats.
This discussion has been closed.