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What’s happening with the polling “don’t knows” – politicalbetting.com
What’s happening with the polling “don’t knows” – politicalbetting.com
The proportion of “don’t knows” in opinion polls is not particularly high at this stage: @PME_Politics https://t.co/nzUipk2OdJ pic.twitter.com/K2xyFWAlxz
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Anyone who has done doorstep politics will tell you that persuading don't know voters to actually vote is Hard Work. Primarily there needs to be something motivating them to step out of their house and head to the polling station. If you don't have that, forget it. Even if you do have that, its hard to motivate them early on polling day, and later on polling day they have settled into the evening routine.
Those voters who are angry will vote - but have likely already identified with their new party. Some will be looking to protest vote and won't yet have plumped for ReFUK/Green/TrotSplinterUnity as they are waiting until there's a list of candidates.
Most? Not voting. As well as the coming Tory ELE we will see a couple of million 2019 voters staying at home. Like in 1997 that will not be good news for the Tories...
My long term hypothesis is that voters who say "don't know" really mean "not you, but I'm too English to say it out loud".
In which case, it's Colourful Metaphor Time for the Conservatives.
PM again the least popular cabinet attender apart from Michael Tomlinson, min for illegal immigration
Last four elections have all been in the 65-68% range, but 2005 was 61% and 2001 was 59%. Less than 60% might well happen this year.
Got to deliver now. Gulp.
For balance, Scotland is also guilty of undermining councils. Increased statutory duties, large real terms cuts in the grant from the SG, frozen council tax dictated by central government.
Councils have decomposed into a impotent bureaucracy, where local councillors receive extreme levels of abuse for desperately funneling cash towards the areas most vulnerable to litigation.
Either devolve tax raising and spending powers to councils or abolish them entirely.
At least in Northern Ireland.
I recall anger at one trawl through the electoral rolls there. Which was characterised as a very necrophobia exercise.
Has he visited Ellora ?
...In any case, nowhere has rock-cut architecture been perfected and developed as in India — here there are more rock-cut buildings than anywhere else on earth.
The most famous example is the vast complex at Ellora, a place that defies explanation and fires the imagination.
https://twitter.com/culturaltutor/status/1754172949257458076
Much like gold plating regulations so that things like child care end up being only affordable for the well off.
I think a much stronger argument can be made for keeping parish/town rather than two levels at district/council as the responsibilities of those councils are far less and if you really want to get involved it's relatively easy to get elected and you can decide whether to have an annual village fete or whatever.
French service sector downturn extends into January, marking its longest period of contraction in over a decade
French service sector business activity falls for eighth month in a row
New business intakes shrink, but confidence picks up
Price pressures intensify
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5a01d5c9b88a40c79f751aeab8b1d727
Strongest service sector performance since May 2023
Faster rises in business activity and new orders
Renewed upturn in staffing levels
Cost inflation eases to joint-lowest since February 2021
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/983758bd175848c78f10343dc3ec8e84
So what are the consequences of the failure of Macronism ?
It’s like they’ve looked at the hell that is the American Culture War, and thought Great, that looks good, let’s ship it over here
It's those who earn just that bit too much for UC support that I think it's the roughest on.
Also the April child tax is very annoying though that'll be gone for April 2023 children, my daughter being the last year (2022) to suffer that particular wrinkle in the system.
Or is there a good reason why it is impossible?
(If they are like most places, they will do nothing and happily ignore the rules, until someone makes them do something.)
Is she going to make more than minimum wage after childcare costs?
Weird thing is I am pleased with some of the economic stuff, don't mind any of their foreign policy stuff, but this Wokeness is genuinely calamitous
They are going down the explosively stupid equity route, as far as I can see: ie if there is any pay differential between ethnic groups in a profession, that is ipso facto proof of racism in the system. There must be equality of OUTCOME not just opportunity
So there can't be any other reason why Jews do better in law or Indians in STEM, if there is a difference between them and say Roma it must be systemic racism. Utter madness
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/list-of-charity-commission-cc-guidance-publications
they can turn up on Saturday in the rain to help dredge the duckpond/make the coffee/man the signal box.
(CC26 alone, on Risk Management, runs to 33 pages and there are over 50 documents listed).
However, given I have a lifelong love and involvement with the railway I seemed to go down ok. No votes against me in the room, and only two abstentions, with everyone else in favour.
Quite pleasing.
(Clackmannanshire enters the chat)
That interesting thread misses out the salt mines of Katowice with their incredible underground shrines and also the eerie rock cut underground opal-mining city of Coober Pedy in Oz - one of the strangest places I have been (slept in an underground hotel)
https://twitter.com/danielgross/status/1754202065029550463
Many congratulations and from my earliest memories, to the day I signalled the flying sotsman past the signal box (c1955) near Berwick-upon-Tweed, to witnessing Mallard in full steam going through Berwick onto the Royal Border Bridge, to trips on the SVR, the Strathspey Railway, Llangollen Railway and others I have had a lifetime love affair with steam trains
I am sure you will make an excellent Trustee
"An HK-based employee of a multinational firm wired out $25M after attending a video call where all employees were deepfaked, including the CFO.
He first got an email which was suspicious but then was reassured on the video call with his “coworkers.”"
https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1754168239574368342?s=20
It would be interesting to see the figures broken down by 2017 or 2015 votes, which are probably a better baseline.
I still think that everything is pointing towards a large Labour landslide, albeit with quite a wide spread of possible outcomes on both sides of the distribution curve.
Labour: 43% (-43)
Conservative: 6% (-4)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (+5)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Green: 10% (+9)
Other: 4% (+4)
Undecided: 23% (N/A)
38% of British Muslims polled saying their views of the party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months
While 85% said the position of political parties on Israel-Palestine will be important in how they choose to vote at the upcoming general election
Anneliese Dodds, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Women & Equalities, was supposed to hold an event today for Labour MPs about ‘Race Equality and Labour’s Missions for Government’ - it has been cancelled,
Oh well Luke Akehurst says https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1713957526020960448/photo/1
So the process provides a shield like steel against fraud, theft, safety, safeguarding etc.
Also, long term, might it impact Working From Home? How easy will it be to "fake yourself" and apparently attend Teams and make calls and send emails when in fact you've just got ChatGPT5 set up to do everything and you are on a 4 month wanking holiday in Puglia
To seek to govern is to be willing to make choices.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/05/british-muslims-losing-trust-in-labour-over-its-handling-of-israel-gaza-war
The issue of Xenophobia and Necrophobia expressed in these sections is an ongoing concern for the Charities Commission.
Can't get veterinary certificates issued in France, can't send this week's shipment of medium-risk meat products. So job stopped. We have perhaps 36 hours to get this moving or we're in danger of losing big chunks of the business we've built up in the UK over the last few years.
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
Poll seems a bit dodgy as it compares 100% with 77&
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-05/british-muslim-support-for-labour-halves-according-to-new-poll
Remember this stuff doesn’t need to be perfect, it only needs to be good enough to fool someone who’s not expecting it.
It will definitely wake up a lot of companies when it comes to processes around bank accounts and records of meetings.
1) All participants having the camera on
2) All participants dressed in business attire
3) All participants paying attention.
Read across for the corporate sector and everywhere else
And Labour has looked at this poisonous mess and thought Yeah, let's have all that in Britain
This is the second poll in short succession where digging into the sample and results presentation yields different conclusions to that posted by the media. Is this going to be an election of "creative" polling?
There's a UK Polling Report poll on the Kingswood by-election next week predicting a Labour gain, but I'm not sure it's a real poll o just a projection from national polls?
Lab 60% -26%
Con 8% -2%
L Dem 8% +7%
SNP 4% +2%
Green 14% +13%
Other 6% +6%
If you strip others and undecideds out :.
Lab 63% -23%
Con 9% -1%
LD 9% +8%
SNP 4% +2%
Green 15% +14%
If you apply the "Will eventually come home" theory to undecideds it is:
Lab 68% -18%
Con 9% -1%
LD 7% +6%
SNP 4% +2%
Green 12% +11%
It could be worse though, the American political media is going to be totally full of fake news between now and November, and they don’t have a polling council.
It's probably always been there, but two particularly shameless examples in a month or so is a bad thing.
(Besides, the important thing about the Labour Muslim vote is it's geographic concentration in seats that mostly aren't remotely at risk this time round.)
"Every single bus I get on now has people using their phone on loudspeaker. 100%.
This wasn't true two years ago. How does a society restore unspoken, shared community standards? Are there any examples of it being achieved?"
https://x.com/gavinantonyrice/status/1754090255580291366?s=20
I've not encountered this
However,
1. I rarely take buses
2. I am only in the UK half the year
ETA: I actually don't mind if it is a call at sensible volume - it's no different from a conversation. It's the expectation that we all listen to your soundtrack that is insufferable.
On buses only? Or elsewhere? There are people on that thread saying it is everywhere
I take a few Tubes and trains and I've not seen it there. Yet
Noticeable uptick in shouty aggression on the Lizzie Line as well. Everyone is just fed up.
It happens all the time on buses. (Which I take almost every day.)
I also agree it is sad that people can't see a distinction between the two parties, which isn't helped by the LD (necessary) tactical voting message.
I hope I am wrong as I want the LDs to do well, but if Labour rack up huge votes in places like Guildford and Godalming it is going to be depressing. In the past it has always been easy to squeeze these. Not sure anymore.
Shares in Santander and Lloyds fell after the Financial Times (FT) newspaper reported that Iran used accounts held at the banks in the UK to covertly move money around the world as part of a sanctions-evasion scheme backed by Iran's intelligence services.
Lloyds and Santander UK provided accounts to British front companies secretly owned by a sanctioned Iranian petrochemicals company based in London, according to documents seen by the FT.
Shares in Madrid-based parent Santander fell as much as 5.8% and were down 5.7% at 0936 GMT, while shares in Lloyds declined 1.8%. Santander shares rose more than 6% last week following 2023 earnings that beat forecasts.
"The market must be realising that they may be fined," said Nuria Alvarez, an analyst at Madrid-based broker Renta 4
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shares-santander-lloyds-fall-report-085306742.html
That said, since I moved outside the M60 I get buses a lot less than I used to. But I get trams A LOT and it happens a lot less on trams than it used to too.
I might just be a misery guts but it’s quite obnoxious.