Britain’s top universities are paying middlemen to recruit lucrative overseas students on far lower grades than those required of UK applicants, an undercover investigation has revealed.
Foreign students can buy their way on to highly competitive degree courses with as little as a handful of C grades at GCSE. The courses require British students to have A or A* grades at A-level.
Representatives of the elite Russell Group universities were secretly filmed discussing the “back door” routes used to recruit overseas students, who pay much higher fees than their UK counterparts.
One recruitment official representing four Russell Group universities laughed as he told undercover reporters: “If you can take the lift, why go through the hardest route?”
He added: “International [students] pay more money and the [universities] will receive almost double, so they give leeway for international students.” He claimed the universities did not publicise the schemes in the UK because British students “would not accept it”. He explained: “It’s not something they want to tell you, but it’s the truth.”...
...There are 15 Russell Group universities that offer special one-year pathway courses that allow overseas students to gain access to undergraduate degrees with far lower A-level or GCSE grades than the normal requirements. They are: Durham, Bristol, Exeter, Warwick, Nottingham, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Cardiff, Sheffield, Birmingham, Southampton, Queen Mary University of London and Queen’s University Belfast.
The Sunday Times investigation discovered that overseas students wishing to study an economics degree using one of the pathways needed grades of CCC at Bristol; CCD at Durham; DDE at Exeter; DDE at Newcastle; and just a single D at Leeds. Yet the same universities’ A-level entry requirements for UK students is A*AA or AAA. All five universities also accept younger overseas students, who have not taken A-levels, with just five C or B grades at GCSE.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
I disagree
Part of university is simply growing up, making friends, establishing a network
Ironically, as we are talking of East Asians, the Japanese treat university as exactly that. Foremost, it is a place to learn SOCIAL skills and have fun and new experiences and broaden your intellectual and human horizons. Learn to fence. Take up lacrosse. Have gay sex with parakeets
Academic life is important but secondary
This is what it used to be in the UK, to an extent: the social expansion was as important as the academic achievement. It was a chance for bright kids from poorer backgrounds to meet more privileged people and learn and grow in confidence - socially as much as scholastically
How on earth do the Cons manage to retain 6 seats?
The SNP are falling more than the Tories in Scotland so the Tories hold on, and that's before Unionist tactical voting.
From what little evidence we have - council by-elections - the Scots Tory vote is holding up pretty well when its in a ward where they are the main competition with the SNP. They held a seat in Stirling quite comfortably on Thursday, for instance.( https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1750904501786075573 ) Dislike of the SNP trumps disapproval of the Tories at Westminster for many unionist voters.
Need to bear in mind that while the Tory vote will likely tank in the Central Belt - to the benefit of Labour - it will prove much more resilient where they are defending seats or are the main challengers to the SNP. Overall opinion polling figures for Scotland will likely miss these regional variations.
The other aspect which could make things really messy for the SNP if Alba put up some candidates.
Marginal impact. Everyone loathes Salmond despite his attempts at rehabilitation. The Greens would be much more of a problem for the SNP if they stand, particularly in urban/yuppy type seats.
Dave double D Davis, The Speccie, The Tele, Andra Neil and several PBers love Alex. Not sure that's helping him much in Scotland mind.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
The effect on students here who get the same grades as these overseas students but are denied a place because they don't come with enough money attached is probably more serious.
Though pretty much inevitable when overseas students bring in about three times as much cash per student as home students.
Doesn't make it right, but it's what happens when a country spends a few decades selling itself off bit by bit.
(Though the "detraction from party life" argument is a bit icky. Are you going to ban physics students next?)
Britain’s top universities are paying middlemen to recruit lucrative overseas students on far lower grades than those required of UK applicants, an undercover investigation has revealed.
Foreign students can buy their way on to highly competitive degree courses with as little as a handful of C grades at GCSE. The courses require British students to have A or A* grades at A-level.
Representatives of the elite Russell Group universities were secretly filmed discussing the “back door” routes used to recruit overseas students, who pay much higher fees than their UK counterparts.
One recruitment official representing four Russell Group universities laughed as he told undercover reporters: “If you can take the lift, why go through the hardest route?”
He added: “International [students] pay more money and the [universities] will receive almost double, so they give leeway for international students.” He claimed the universities did not publicise the schemes in the UK because British students “would not accept it”. He explained: “It’s not something they want to tell you, but it’s the truth.”...
...There are 15 Russell Group universities that offer special one-year pathway courses that allow overseas students to gain access to undergraduate degrees with far lower A-level or GCSE grades than the normal requirements. They are: Durham, Bristol, Exeter, Warwick, Nottingham, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Cardiff, Sheffield, Birmingham, Southampton, Queen Mary University of London and Queen’s University Belfast.
The Sunday Times investigation discovered that overseas students wishing to study an economics degree using one of the pathways needed grades of CCC at Bristol; CCD at Durham; DDE at Exeter; DDE at Newcastle; and just a single D at Leeds. Yet the same universities’ A-level entry requirements for UK students is A*AA or AAA. All five universities also accept younger overseas students, who have not taken A-levels, with just five C or B grades at GCSE.
Did the LSE suffer any loss of reputation as a result of the Gaddafi scandal?
Seven or eight years ago I went for a day at the county cricket with my father. Sitting behind us were two academics discussing the low standard of English of many foreign students. Of course the University needed the money so that was that.
One issue with foreign students is that they often live together, so only speak English in classes. Often their spoken English will decline from the point of testing to get entry.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
I disagree
Part of university is simply growing up, making friends, establishing a network
That 'networking' is one of the reasons this country is run by ignorant shitheads.
Give me people who studied any day. There's a chance they might be (a) knowledgeable and (b) have a willingness to learn beyond their existing knowledge.
I didn’t say “networking”. I said “building a network”. They are different things.
A group of friends and acquaintances, friends of friends, is an important stabiliser for life.
Clearly you’re an obsessed nerd with no social life who spends too much time on an obscure website (Ed: ahem) but having a hinterland is an important part of becoming a functioning adult.
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
I disagree
Part of university is simply growing up, making friends, establishing a network
That 'networking' is one of the reasons this country is run by ignorant shitheads.
Give me people who studied any day. There's a chance they might be (a) knowledgeable and (b) have a willingness to learn beyond their existing knowledge.
I didn’t say “networking”. I said “building a network”. They are different things.
A group of friends and acquaintances, friends of friends, is an important stabiliser for life.
Clearly you’re an obsessed nerd with no social life who spends too much time on an obscure website (Ed: ahem) but having a hinterland is an important part of becoming a functioning adult.
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
You can study hard and still build an effective social network. I'm still in touch with most of my contemporaries. But we all got top degrees including doctorates by working hard.
The bigger problem is those who muck about and yet still rise effortlessly through the ranks because of their contacts.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
I disagree
Part of university is simply growing up, making friends, establishing a network
That 'networking' is one of the reasons this country is run by ignorant shitheads.
Give me people who studied any day. There's a chance they might be (a) knowledgeable and (b) have a willingness to learn beyond their existing knowledge.
I didn’t say “networking”. I said “building a network”. They are different things.
A group of friends and acquaintances, friends of friends, is an important stabiliser for life.
Clearly you’re an obsessed nerd with no social life who spends too much time on an obscure website (Ed: ahem) but having a hinterland is an important part of becoming a functioning adult.
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
You can study hard and still build an effective social network. I'm still in touch with most of my contemporaries. But we all got top degrees including doctorates by working hard.
Which is the case that @Leon and I are making and you are opposing
Other species may communicate, and cooperate, but none of them make art for arts sake.
Animals can produce beauty, like a spiders' web, but it's survival, not art.
Nature can produce other images we consider beautiful, like a spiral galaxy, but again, not art.
So yes, a computer could produce a piece of music, or a picture that we might perceive as beautiful, but that's not art...
So, all you're saying is that "art" is a uniquely human product, therefore a computer cannot make it, as art is uniquely human, and a computer is not a human
A completely pointless, circular argument which is also circular, and entirely pointless. Well done
The thing it will surely struggle to replicate is context. We could already probably recreate the work of say a Dutch Master, in a close to perfect way pre-AI. But Vermeers still sell for tens of millions because you can't replicate the context.
Similarly with music, I have not trouble believing an AI can perfect the mechanics of any musical genre. However, what it can't capture - at least physically - is context. There are songs that only work because of who they are by and where they were made.
Take, say, The Happy Mondays and Shaun Ryder. Obviously you could feed an AI every Mondays and Black Grape track, plus his turn of phrase, and create endless copies that approximated, even improved, their sound somehow.
Except it wouldn't. Because a big part of the appeal isn't in the music itself, but who's delivering it and the context it is being performed or heard in. Similar to a lot of punk. It draws its energy and appeal from its context, rather than content. AI can do the latter, no doubt. But by definition can't do the former.
This is why people go to concerts. The fact it is coming from a person instead of an artificial reproduction is important. However before people point out "ABBA: Voyager" and Elvis holograms, the question arises of how close does have a fake has to approximate the real before it falls into the same category.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
I disagree
Part of university is simply growing up, making friends, establishing a network
That 'networking' is one of the reasons this country is run by ignorant shitheads.
Give me people who studied any day. There's a chance they might be (a) knowledgeable and (b) have a willingness to learn beyond their existing knowledge.
I didn’t say “networking”. I said “building a network”. They are different things.
A group of friends and acquaintances, friends of friends, is an important stabiliser for life.
Clearly you’re an obsessed nerd with no social life who spends too much time on an obscure website (Ed: ahem) but having a hinterland is an important part of becoming a functioning adult.
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
Quite so. I now have zero friends from my old school and sixth form
I still have half a dozen good friends from uni - now in all walks of life - and I have a dozen friends from the years “around uni”. When I was madly socialising and exploring london and doing drugs and going to parties and also learning in my own way - I got a crap 2:2 at Philosophy but I got a First in Learning how life works
And it gave me a hunger to learn more on all fronts
I’d rather have the first and the 2:2 that way round
Half my friendship group - nearly four decades later - is from those crucial years 18-24
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
This has been true for ages. When I went back to work near my old uni a decade ago some of the pubs near the big inner city halls were struggling because they were full of overseas Chinese students who didn't conduct their lives from the pub like we had a decade earlier.
Though no doubt that would have changed somewhat anyway as social media was in its infancy, streaming was patchy, and everything was cheaper. University life was destined to become more atomised anyway I think.
A dozen or so years ago my eldest granddaughter spent most of her three years at uni waitressing every Saturday night. I told her I thought it was a dreadful waste of opportunity.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
Bollix. You are just parroting racist notions about emotionless Chinese robots. As you may well be aware from your own experiences, Asians and Westerners can often get along intimately well. Pound shop Taki strikes again.
@Leon is right and it's nothing new. Mrs S. retired over 10 years ago but she would often complain about the difficulty of getting East Asian students (including graduates) to participate in seminars. They'd sit silently on the side, take copious notes and hope to regurgitate them in a written exam. Verbal participation was never part of their plan. This is how they made it to a UK university in the first place so it would be a struggle to change after 15 years or more.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
I disagree
Part of university is simply growing up, making friends, establishing a network
That 'networking' is one of the reasons this country is run by ignorant shitheads.
Give me people who studied any day. There's a chance they might be (a) knowledgeable and (b) have a willingness to learn beyond their existing knowledge.
I didn’t say “networking”. I said “building a network”. They are different things.
A group of friends and acquaintances, friends of friends, is an important stabiliser for life.
Clearly you’re an obsessed nerd with no social life who spends too much time on an obscure website (Ed: ahem) but having a hinterland is an important part of becoming a functioning adult.
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
You can study hard and still build an effective social network. I'm still in touch with most of my contemporaries. But we all got top degrees including doctorates by working hard.
Which is the case that @Leon and I are making and you are opposing
If it is, you're making it badly. Because that's not what you've said at all.
And that's certainly not the case he was making. He was criticising students for being studious. I was pointing out that's just more of his silliness.
"Post Office chairman Henry Staunton ousted amid row with government Henry Staunton has been ousted after just a year as the Post Office chairman amid mounting tensions with its government shareholder, Sky News can exclusively reveal."
However, the government is understood to want to appoint a Whitehall insider to the role as it looks to strengthen the Post Office's corporate governance.
Because appointing the likes of Case, Wormald, Kelly, Acland-Hood etc is really going to strengthen corporate governance.
I mean, it's not like any of them have been investigated by the police for trampling on sundry laws, or disciplined for professional misconduct, or failed completely in every role they've ever held, is it?
Has anyone looked into the availability of Dick?
I'm available.
They'll probably appoint Dido Harding. Or some other no-mark.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
The effect on students here who get the same grades as these overseas students but are denied a place because they don't come with enough money attached is probably more serious.
Though pretty much inevitable when overseas students bring in about three times as much cash per student as home students.
Doesn't make it right, but it's what happens when a country spends a few decades selling itself off bit by bit.
(Though the "detraction from party life" argument is a bit icky. Are you going to ban physics students next?)
Galloway has, in the past, been remarkably effective at gaining support from Muslim voters. He's beaten Labour twice - Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005, and Bradford West in the 2012 by-election. If there's a sizeable Muslim vote in Rochdale he could do very well indeed.
Bit of an assumption on my part but the winning candidate for Lab is Azhar Ali OBE @CllrAzharAli
Possibly he's a practising muslim?
OBE isn't a Muslim name.
Isn't it a Jedi name?
"I haven't gone by the name of OGH since, oh, before you were born." - Mike Kenobi.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
This has been true for ages. When I went back to work near my old uni a decade ago some of the pubs near the big inner city halls were struggling because they were full of overseas Chinese students who didn't conduct their lives from the pub like we had a decade earlier.
Though no doubt that would have changed somewhat anyway as social media was in its infancy, streaming was patchy, and everything was cheaper. University life was destined to become more atomised anyway I think.
A dozen or so years ago my eldest granddaughter spent most of her three years at uni waitressing every Saturday night. I told her I thought it was a dreadful waste of opportunity.
Absolutely. If she hadn't been faffing about doing the uni stuff she could have held down a full time job waitressing.
How on earth do the Cons manage to retain 6 seats?
Labour prevent the SNP from improving on second place in those constituencies. So much for getting rid of the tories!
Norstat has a small swing (about 1.5%) from SNP to Conservative but the swing from Conservative to Labour is 13% which, when you look at the national poll numbers, makes you wonder if the swings in England are nearer 20%.
As most of the Conservative held seats in Scotland have the SNP as the clear second place challenger with the LDs and Labour far behind, the likelihood is both the Conservative and SNP shares will fall equally and Labour will gains trongly but still be third. That being said, the gap between Conservative and SNP isn't great and relying on UNS might not be entirely wise.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
I disagree
Part of university is simply growing up, making friends, establishing a network
That 'networking' is one of the reasons this country is run by ignorant shitheads.
Give me people who studied any day. There's a chance they might be (a) knowledgeable and (b) have a willingness to learn beyond their existing knowledge.
I didn’t say “networking”. I said “building a network”. They are different things.
A group of friends and acquaintances, friends of friends, is an important stabiliser for life.
Clearly you’re an obsessed nerd with no social life who spends too much time on an obscure website (Ed: ahem) but having a hinterland is an important part of becoming a functioning adult.
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
You can study hard and still build an effective social network. I'm still in touch with most of my contemporaries. But we all got top degrees including doctorates by working hard.
Which is the case that @Leon and I are making and you are opposing
If it is, you're making it badly. Because that's not what you've said at all.
And that's certainly not the case he was making. He was criticising students for being studious. I was pointing out that's just more of his silliness.
At least you are not an English teacher since you obviously struggle with comprehension
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
This has been true for ages. When I went back to work near my old uni a decade ago some of the pubs near the big inner city halls were struggling because they were full of overseas Chinese students who didn't conduct their lives from the pub like we had a decade earlier.
Though no doubt that would have changed somewhat anyway as social media was in its infancy, streaming was patchy, and everything was cheaper. University life was destined to become more atomised anyway I think.
A dozen or so years ago my eldest granddaughter spent most of her three years at uni waitressing every Saturday night. I told her I thought it was a dreadful waste of opportunity.
Absolutely. If she hadn't been faffing about doing the uni stuff she could have held down a full time job waitressing.
She had a much better balance when she was doing her doctorate though!
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
"The Conservatives are at the ICC"
International Criminal Court? They bloody well should be.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
The effect on students here who get the same grades as these overseas students but are denied a place because they don't come with enough money attached is probably more serious.
Though pretty much inevitable when overseas students bring in about three times as much cash per student as home students.
Doesn't make it right, but it's what happens when a country spends a few decades selling itself off bit by bit.
(Though the "detraction from party life" argument is a bit icky. Are you going to ban physics students next?)
I asked a Tory PPC on Friday when the election would be and she said “no idea” but did mention they are all gearing up just in case it’s in May.
Very political week. Tuesday round table with a Labour shadow minister, Thursday Lib Dem bash and Friday talking to a Tory about stuff to feed in to Hunt.
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
The effect on students here who get the same grades as these overseas students but are denied a place because they don't come with enough money attached is probably more serious.
Though pretty much inevitable when overseas students bring in about three times as much cash per student as home students.
Doesn't make it right, but it's what happens when a country spends a few decades selling itself off bit by bit.
(Though the "detraction from party life" argument is a bit icky. Are you going to ban physics students next?)
The Universities are important institutions but they don't really get much direct government support. The student fees which aren't being repaid are a kind of subsidy but it doesn't really work like that in practice.
Do we want governments interfering all the time in what the universities do? No. Can they be left to regulate and govern themselves? No. We need a declaration of principles for what we want Universities to be. The Chicago principles would be something to look at.
I asked a Tory PPC on Friday when the election would be and she said “no idea” but did mention they are all gearing up just in case it’s in May.
Very political week. Tuesday round table with a Labour shadow minister, Thursday Lib Dem bash and Friday talking to a Tory about stuff to feed in to Hunt.
Naturally all the parties are preparing for May - they'd be foolish not to.
I think the Kingswood and Wellingborough contests next month will be hugely informative - I suspect they will end any prospect of May and may impact the Budget (will Hunt, pace Clarke in 1997 realise the game is up and the honourable thing will be to bequeath as good an economic position for Labour as possible in the interests of the country or will there still be a hope tax cuts will swing the electorate back even at this late stage?)
If we go on to May, the locals are part of the 2021 set - they will be the 2020 contests which were postponed a year. That may not help the Conservatives too much given the very different landscape.
Assuming a poor night for the Conservatives, what then? Do we see a second tax cutting budget in the autumn and a trap set for Labour or will it be a quiet dignified exit?
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
The effect on students here who get the same grades as these overseas students but are denied a place because they don't come with enough money attached is probably more serious.
Though pretty much inevitable when overseas students bring in about three times as much cash per student as home students.
Doesn't make it right, but it's what happens when a country spends a few decades selling itself off bit by bit.
(Though the "detraction from party life" argument is a bit icky. Are you going to ban physics students next?)
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
How on earth do the Cons manage to retain 6 seats?
The SNP are falling more than the Tories in Scotland so the Tories hold on, and that's before Unionist tactical voting.
From what little evidence we have - council by-elections - the Scots Tory vote is holding up pretty well when its in a ward where they are the main competition with the SNP. They held a seat in Stirling quite comfortably on Thursday, for instance.( https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1750904501786075573 ) Dislike of the SNP trumps disapproval of the Tories at Westminster for many unionist voters.
Need to bear in mind that while the Tory vote will likely tank in the Central Belt - to the benefit of Labour - it will prove much more resilient where they are defending seats or are the main challengers to the SNP. Overall opinion polling figures for Scotland will likely miss these regional variations.
The other aspect which could make things really messy for the SNP if Alba put up some candidates.
Marginal impact. Everyone loathes Salmond despite his attempts at rehabilitation. The Greens would be much more of a problem for the SNP if they stand, particularly in urban/yuppy type seats.
There is a bit of a Green/SNP/Labour fight in the local by-election for Hillhead I think. Be interesting to project and wildly speculate on the results in a few weeks. It could keep us occupied for hours!
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
In my day the students just visited on their own.
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
The South Asian students thing is true. I remember it from over 20 years ago when I was at university. They were mainly Hong Kong Chinese, Malaysians and Singaporean.
They were in every lecture and seminar, swotty and diligently taking notes, but you never saw hide nor hair of them at other times. And they didn't come to anything social - ever.
Interestingly quite a few of them got 2:1s because whilst they absolutely nailed the technical exams (getting very high firsts) they struggled with the project/group work that dragged down their average, particularly in the crucial finals year.
On the subject of Chinese students. I am 100% not talking about where I work, but a Zoom conversation was relayed to me from 100% somewhere else.
Local-ish-place: "So, student 123 got 74% - so that's a 'B'" China: :: much muttering :: "No - we have given you the wrong figure - they actually got 94%!" "So.... that means they get an 'A'. ... Ok. Student 456 got 68% - that's a 'C'" :: much muttering :: "No - wrong figure again, sorry - they got 91%!" "So... that means they get an 'A'" ...... ........."
It's made me a tad cynical about how amazing SE.Asian education is in general.
Just imagine how well Labour would be doing in Scotland if Starmer wasn't a dud.
It's a little depressing that whilst the SNP are sliding support for independence remains an even split. An awful lot more work needs to be done for the Union in the medium term.
I think support for Indy might even go higher as the SNP sink
As the Nats disappear Indy becomes a vague noble aspiration not something to seriously worry about. Who wouldn’t vaguely, nobly “aspire” to be independent? YES INDY!
A referendum with the SNP in power would be very different. YES would shrink
Teacher who showed Muhammad cartoon still in hiding 3 years later
The former head of religious studies at Batley Grammar School in West Yorkshire is unlikely ever to return home, his family say
The man, who was head of religious studies at Batley Grammar School in West Yorkshire, presented a drawing taken from the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo during one of his classes, provoking several days of demonstrations outside the school gates.
He was put into police protection after allegedly receiving death threats and now lives with his partner and four children under an assumed name in a secret location outside Yorkshire.
The South Asian students thing is true. I remember it from over 20 years ago when I was at university. They were mainly Hong Kong Chinese, Malaysians and Singaporean.
They were in every lecture and seminar, swotty and diligently taking notes, but you never saw hide nor hair of them at other times. And they didn't come to anything social - ever.
Interestingly quite a few of them got 2:1s because whilst they absolutely nailed the technical exams (getting very high firsts) they struggled with the project/group work that dragged down their average, particularly in the crucial finals year.
It's interesting that, I was in every lecture/seminar etc and was a proper girly swot but I was also a social/party animal (the former was inevitable because that's the person I was when I arrived at university but I never expected to turn into the latter.)
The South Asian students thing is true. I remember it from over 20 years ago when I was at university. They were mainly Hong Kong Chinese, Malaysians and Singaporean.
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
Not for the first time, I'm going to disagree with you and tell you you're wrong.
I've actually "done" politics (albeit a while ago) and the Conservatives will be testing the public mood weekly with their own focus groups and surveys (they also do their own polling and don't rely on what we see).
It's quite clear the card they think is their best is tax cuts and a brief but general economic improvement predicated on falling inflation and cuts in interest rates.
Tax cuts may or may not be sound economics but they are usually good politics and lay the trap for the opposition parties.
Hunt will, I suspect, offer tax cuts in March with a promise of more to come and that will be in the early autumn with a second round of "feelgood" bribes to the electorate to launch the campaign.
All of this will be monitored, surveyed and followed. In 1997, the Wirral South by-election was the knockout blow for Major - the swing was huge and the party machine will have told him defeat on a catastrophic scale was inevitable.
Kingswood and Wellingborough on February 15th will send a similar message to Sunak and that will be if you want to go in May the chances are the swings you see in these seats will be repeated nationally. Only if the results are not as bad will a May election come back on the table.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
In my day the students just visited on their own.
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
A while back my son's school organised a supervised coach trip to the open day of one of the more popular universities; according to my son this was because a group of pupils the previous year had organised their own open day visit and apparently went "on a massive bender" in the city afterwards and failed to turn up to school the next day.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
Aberdeen is good
But watch out if modern languages is involved. The management has been trying to downgrade - shut down, some would say - that side of the university. Still a matter of argument.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Nope, a 15% lead with Opinium is the equivalent of a lead of 22-24% with other pollsters because of the Opinium methodology.
To describe it as poor for Labour shows why you're not considered a serious poster.
The South Asian students thing is true. I remember it from over 20 years ago when I was at university. They were mainly Hong Kong Chinese, Malaysians and Singaporean.
They were in every lecture and seminar, swotty and diligently taking notes, but you never saw hide nor hair of them at other times. And they didn't come to anything social - ever.
Interestingly quite a few of them got 2:1s because whilst they absolutely nailed the technical exams (getting very high firsts) they struggled with the project/group work that dragged down their average, particularly in the crucial finals year.
It's interesting that, I was in every lecture/seminar etc and was a proper girly swot but I was also a social/party animal (the former was inevitable because that's the person I was when I arrived at university but I never expected to turn into the latter.)
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Another "swing to Labour is bad news for Labour" poll.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
Aberdeen is good
But watch out if modern languages is involved. The management has been trying to downgrade - shut down, some would say - that side of the university. Still a matter of argument.
How on earth do the Cons manage to retain 6 seats?
Labour prevent the SNP from improving on second place in those constituencies. So much for getting rid of the tories!
Norstat has a small swing (about 1.5%) from SNP to Conservative but the swing from Conservative to Labour is 13% which, when you look at the national poll numbers, makes you wonder if the swings in England are nearer 20%.
As most of the Conservative held seats in Scotland have the SNP as the clear second place challenger with the LDs and Labour far behind, the likelihood is both the Conservative and SNP shares will fall equally and Labour will gains trongly but still be third. That being said, the gap between Conservative and SNP isn't great and relying on UNS might not be entirely wise.
In Scotland, as in Northern Ireland, Unionists vote for Unionists, rather than left/right.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
In my day the students just visited on their own.
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
Oh I turned up at the unis on my own, I let my father visit the city we were in.
See in those days British Rail was seriously unreliable and even more unsafe.
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
The economy will be okay this year. The government will hope to capitalise on full employment, plus real wage increases.
The South Asian students thing is true. I remember it from over 20 years ago when I was at university. They were mainly Hong Kong Chinese, Malaysians and Singaporean.
They were in every lecture and seminar, swotty and diligently taking notes, but you never saw hide nor hair of them at other times. And they didn't come to anything social - ever.
Interestingly quite a few of them got 2:1s because whilst they absolutely nailed the technical exams (getting very high firsts) they struggled with the project/group work that dragged down their average, particularly in the crucial finals year.
It's interesting that, I was in every lecture/seminar etc and was a proper girly swot but I was also a social/party animal (the former was inevitable because that's the person I was when I arrived at university but I never expected to turn into the latter.)
I was never the essay crisis student.
Yes, but you're British.
I know but in those days I was probably more South Asian than British when it came to education/university.
University turned a shy nerd into the man I am today.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
Aberdeen is good
But watch out if modern languages is involved. The management has been trying to downgrade - shut down, some would say - that side of the university. Still a matter of argument.
Oh, I didn't know. Very different from my day.
The issue seems to have gone quiet lately, but basically anyone applyint for a degree in ML might want to take this into account. "proposal to end single honours degrees in modern languages". This obvs focuses on the union issues, but a look on google will get various news reports.
The South Asian students thing is true. I remember it from over 20 years ago when I was at university. They were mainly Hong Kong Chinese, Malaysians and Singaporean.
They were in every lecture and seminar, swotty and diligently taking notes, but you never saw hide nor hair of them at other times. And they didn't come to anything social - ever.
Interestingly quite a few of them got 2:1s because whilst they absolutely nailed the technical exams (getting very high firsts) they struggled with the project/group work that dragged down their average, particularly in the crucial finals year.
It's interesting that, I was in every lecture/seminar etc and was a proper girly swot but I was also a social/party animal (the former was inevitable because that's the person I was when I arrived at university but I never expected to turn into the latter.)
I was never the essay crisis student.
Yes, but you're British.
I know but in those days I was probably more South Asian than British when it came to education/university.
University turned a shy nerd into the man I am today.
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
The economy will be okay this year. The government will hope to capitalise on full employment, plus real wage increases.
The only real strategy this government has is to focus on solving the long-term challenges the country has, with a plan to go with it. Labour don't have one and, if it had consistently been exercised since Sunak too office, that would provide a genuine contrast and allow them to soak up some votes of sober and responsible government ilk.
The trouble is it hasn't - because it's been chronically short-termist, utterly bereft of serious thinking and obsessed with the next headline with a series of sugar rush policy and gimmicks. On top, the behaviour of the parliamentary party has been and continues to be atrocious.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
In my day the students just visited on their own.
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
Oh I turned up at the unis on my own, I let my father visit the city we were in.
See in those days British Rail was seriously unreliable and even more unsafe.
I hitchhiked to Oxford aged 15, wandered into Thornton's bookshop in the Broad and startled the man behind the counter by asking "Is this the shop Brian Aldiss was working when he wrote The Brightfount Diaries? "Err ... yes ... I believe so." "What's that place across the street?" "Err ... Balliol College, I believe." "Ah, that's where Ted Heath went." "Err ... yes, I believe it is." Suitably impressed I hitchhiked back home.
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
Not for the first time, I'm going to disagree with you and tell you you're wrong.
I've actually "done" politics (albeit a while ago) and the Conservatives will be testing the public mood weekly with their own focus groups and surveys (they also do their own polling and don't rely on what we see).
It's quite clear the card they think is their best is tax cuts and a brief but general economic improvement predicated on falling inflation and cuts in interest rates.
Tax cuts may or may not be sound economics but they are usually good politics and lay the trap for the opposition parties.
Hunt will, I suspect, offer tax cuts in March with a promise of more to come and that will be in the early autumn with a second round of "feelgood" bribes to the electorate to launch the campaign.
All of this will be monitored, surveyed and followed. In 1997, the Wirral South by-election was the knockout blow for Major - the swing was huge and the party machine will have told him defeat on a catastrophic scale was inevitable.
Kingswood and Wellingborough on February 15th will send a similar message to Sunak and that will be if you want to go in May the chances are the swings you see in these seats will be repeated nationally. Only if the results are not as bad will a May election come back on the table.
I’m telling you not to be too upset the fact it’s a May 2nd election when you finally realise you failed to spot this. and Parliament shuts 26th March - beaten by a mere slip of a MoonRabbit. 😇
I am even sure how and why you are getting this badly wrong, and can explain it to you.
I suspect you are getting it wrong because you are comparing to a whole half century experience of living through General Elections which I can’t call on. But ironically using all that knowledge here is actually your weakest facet.
Is it not unusual to be in an election year without any chance of winning, nothing to show for continual hard work except manage less of a hammering, all whilst having to wait till depth of winter for the parliament to time out? In such unusual situations does “hangs on to the last” always apply?
This is a bit of a unique situation, I suggest we may have to disregard some previous understandings. I think the case is too strong for May 2nd election returning the best possible Conservative campaign and result this year, to the extent they can’t spurn it.
Except that what learning from experience that can be called on is the opposite of what you are thinking. Dan Finkelstein, who advised John Major, has argued 97 was a heavier defeat for hanging on till the bitter end. For sure there are voices around Sunak right now, offering sound reasons for why if heading for opposition anyway, the spring election backdrop can gain the least worst result.
Why is waiting founded upon the soundest most creative and agile reasoning? The current Spanish government called one early whilst behind in polls, they had seemed on course for defeat, but are still the government, just. What if they had waited? And what if previous UK governments hadn’t waited and called those elections that never were - autumn 1978, autumn 2007 - and what it worked for them like it did in Spain last year? Better results for the government, maybe even different political history altogether, like Lady Thatcher never became Primeminister at all?
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
Aberdeen is good
But watch out if modern languages is involved. The management has been trying to downgrade - shut down, some would say - that side of the university. Still a matter of argument.
Oh, I didn't know. Very different from my day.
The issue seems to have gone quiet lately, but basically anyone applyint for a degree in ML might want to take this into account. "proposal to end single honours degrees in modern languages". This obvs focuses on the union issues, but a look on google will get various news reports.
History departments are being culled left, right and centre too.
A more worrying trend is the closure of multiple English departments. Which has - unthinkably - turned English into a shortage subject in secondary education.
The problem is partly the new A-level, partly the cockups over Russell group numbers - but mostly it's the really shite GCSEs which are putting people right off all these subjects.
It's one reason why I wonder how much longer GCSEs have to go.
But then, SATs are even more worthless and nobody's got rid of them.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Let's see where Labour are at in 3 years.
I said to JohnO last week, I suspect with 18-24 months of taking power Labour could be fourth in the polls as they get outflanked on several fronts.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
There was a YouGov in The Times today which showed 16% of voters being more likely to vote Conservative if Boris replaced Rishi, but 22% being less likely to do so
So it would be a bad move
Isn’t reading it like this nonsense?
It surely depends on how likely the 16 & 22% were to vote Conservative to start off with. If the 16% were 2019 Tory voters, & the 22% were people who would never vote Tory anyway, it would be sensible to replace Sunak with Boris
35% of 2019 Tories surveyed said it would make them more likely to vote for them again. I haven’t seen the other side of that question
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
Aberdeen is good
But watch out if modern languages is involved. The management has been trying to downgrade - shut down, some would say - that side of the university. Still a matter of argument.
Doesn’t that apply to quite a few places? AIUI quite a few universities are cutting back on modern language degrees. Certainly on European languages.
The South Asian students thing is true. I remember it from over 20 years ago when I was at university. They were mainly Hong Kong Chinese, Malaysians and Singaporean.
They were in every lecture and seminar, swotty and diligently taking notes, but you never saw hide nor hair of them at other times. And they didn't come to anything social - ever.
Interestingly quite a few of them got 2:1s because whilst they absolutely nailed the technical exams (getting very high firsts) they struggled with the project/group work that dragged down their average, particularly in the crucial finals year.
It's interesting that, I was in every lecture/seminar etc and was a proper girly swot but I was also a social/party animal (the former was inevitable because that's the person I was when I arrived at university but I never expected to turn into the latter.)
I was never the essay crisis student.
Yes, but you're British.
I know but in those days I was probably more South Asian than British when it came to education/university.
University turned a shy nerd into the man I am today.
Fortunately it left your immense modesty intact.
People think I am brash and self confident because I went to a private school, nope I was modest and self effacing at school, it was university that moulded me.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
Aberdeen is good
But watch out if modern languages is involved. The management has been trying to downgrade - shut down, some would say - that side of the university. Still a matter of argument.
Oh, I didn't know. Very different from my day.
The issue seems to have gone quiet lately, but basically anyone applyint for a degree in ML might want to take this into account. "proposal to end single honours degrees in modern languages". This obvs focuses on the union issues, but a look on google will get various news reports.
History departments are being culled left, right and centre too.
A more worrying trend is the closure of multiple English departments. Which has - unthinkably - turned English into a shortage subject in secondary education.
The problem is partly the new A-level, partly the cockups over Russell group numbers - but mostly it's the really shite GCSEs which are putting people right off all these subjects.
It's one reason why I wonder how much longer GCSEs have to go.
But then, SATs are even more worthless and nobody's got rid of them.
English is a modern language, I suppose*. So is Gaelic, as far as Aberdeen is concerned (which is explosive given its hinterland and public policy to which it has signed up).
*Yes - I know, the logic ... but to a certain mind ...
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
Not for the first time, I'm going to disagree with you and tell you you're wrong.
I've actually "done" politics (albeit a while ago) and the Conservatives will be testing the public mood weekly with their own focus groups and surveys (they also do their own polling and don't rely on what we see).
It's quite clear the card they think is their best is tax cuts and a brief but general economic improvement predicated on falling inflation and cuts in interest rates.
Tax cuts may or may not be sound economics but they are usually good politics and lay the trap for the opposition parties.
Hunt will, I suspect, offer tax cuts in March with a promise of more to come and that will be in the early autumn with a second round of "feelgood" bribes to the electorate to launch the campaign.
All of this will be monitored, surveyed and followed. In 1997, the Wirral South by-election was the knockout blow for Major - the swing was huge and the party machine will have told him defeat on a catastrophic scale was inevitable.
Kingswood and Wellingborough on February 15th will send a similar message to Sunak and that will be if you want to go in May the chances are the swings you see in these seats will be repeated nationally. Only if the results are not as bad will a May election come back on the table.
I’m telling you not to be too upset the fact it’s a May 2nd election when you finally realise you failed to spot this. and Parliament shuts 26th March - beaten by a mere slip of a MoonRabbit. 😇
I am even sure how and why you are getting this badly wrong, and can explain it to you.
I suspect you are getting it wrong because you are comparing to a whole half century experience of living through General Elections which I can’t call on. But ironically using all that knowledge here is actually your weakest facet.
Is it not unusual to be in an election year without any chance of winning, nothing to show for continual hard work except manage less of a hammering, all whilst having to wait till depth of winter for the parliament to time out? In such unusual situations does “hangs on to the last” always apply?
This is a bit of a unique situation, I suggest we may have to disregard some previous understandings. I think the case is too strong for May 2nd election returning the best possible Conservative campaign and result this year, to the extent they can’t spurn it.
Except that what learning from experience that can be called on is the opposite of what you are thinking. Dan Finkelstein, who advised John Major, has argued 97 was a heavier defeat for hanging on till the bitter end. For sure there are voices around Sunak right now, offering sound reasons for why if heading for opposition anyway, the spring election backdrop can gain the least worst result.
Why is waiting founded upon the soundest most creative and agile reasoning? The current Spanish government called one early whilst behind in polls, they had seemed on course for defeat, but are still the government, just. What if they had waited? And what if previous UK governments hadn’t waited and called those elections that never were - autumn 1978, autumn 2007 - and what it worked for them like it did in Spain last year? Better results for the government, maybe even different political history altogether, like Lady Thatcher never became Primeminister at all?
2nd May is clearly the sensible choice for Sunak. Which is why I now think November is more likely.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
Aberdeen is good
But watch out if modern languages is involved. The management has been trying to downgrade - shut down, some would say - that side of the university. Still a matter of argument.
Doesn’t that apply to quite a few places? AIUI quite a few universities are cutting back on modern language degrees. Certainly on European languages.
No doubt: I just happen to know about that one, so mentioned it - early warned is early planned.
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
The economy will be okay this year. The government will hope to capitalise on full employment, plus real wage increases.
I’m confident Labours loving that sort of complacent thinking. That full employment plus real wage increases is the big talking point, not the covid enquiry report, technical recession and boats, boats, and yes, more boats 🙂
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Tbf I was with majority view immediately after the 2019 GE that Labour were going to take at least two elections to get back in power.
In a way that probably doesn’t make much sense from a betting pov, even when I was backing Con Maj at 6/4 ish, I never thought the 7/1 lay of Lab Maj was a good idea. I thought the only way Sir Keir could beat Boris was if something went spectacularly wrong, so wrong it meant the rules had changed & Labour would win a majority. The logical conclusion would have been to lay NOM, which I didn’t.
This sounds like awful after timing now, but I promise it’s true. Or at least that’s what I remember thinking… maybe there’s a post that shows I am after timing... people were definitely saying laying 7/1 was a great bet, I think headers were written suggesting it, and I remember thinking “hmmm not for me, I’ll just plough into the Con Maj”
I even said to my partner I might put 20k we had saved for a deposit on it, as I just couldn’t see how it wasn’t massive value. Makes the £500 I’m going to lose seem like a result
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Let's see where Labour are at in 3 years.
I said to JohnO last week, I suspect with 18-24 months of taking power Labour could be fourth in the polls as they get outflanked on several fronts.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
There was a YouGov in The Times today which showed 16% of voters being more likely to vote Conservative if Boris replaced Rishi, but 22% being less likely to do so
So it would be a bad move
Isn’t reading it like this nonsense?
It surely depends on how likely the 16 & 22% were to vote Conservative to start off with. If the 16% were 2019 Tory voters, & the 22% were people who would never vote Tory anyway, it would be sensible to replace Sunak with Boris
35% of 2019 Tories surveyed said it would make them more likely to vote for them again. I haven’t seen the other side of that question
Nope, being a net liability overall is what will drive up tactical voting against the Tories led by Boris Johnson at a level that wouldn't happen under Sunak.
Ben Lauderdale did a study paper years ago why you should look at all voters just not your past voters when it comes to this type of question, and 35% is a pretty poor stat.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Opinium in this Parliament reminds me a little bit of ICM in the 92-97 Parliament.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Let's see where Labour are at in 3 years.
I said to JohnO last week, I suspect with 18-24 months of taking power Labour could be fourth in the polls as they get outflanked on several fronts.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
Are you offering odds on that?
If the polls hold and Labour win a landslide, it will be interesting to see how Starmer manages party discipline once in power.
Given how Tory splits have effectively destroyed their effectiveness in office, managing the party is going to need to be Starmer's top priority if he wants to achieve anything.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Opinium in this Parliament reminds me a little bit of ICM in the 92-97 Parliament.
...goes off to check Wiki 'Opinion Polling for the 1997 general election'.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Let's see where Labour are at in 3 years.
I said to JohnO last week, I suspect with 18-24 months of taking power Labour could be fourth in the polls as they get outflanked on several fronts.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
Are you offering odds on that?
I said could, not will.
FWIW I expect Labour would win the 2029 election even if that polling happened in 2026.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Let's see where Labour are at in 3 years.
I said to JohnO last week, I suspect with 18-24 months of taking power Labour could be fourth in the polls as they get outflanked on several fronts.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
Are you offering odds on that?
If the polls hold and Labour win a landslide, it will be interesting to see how Starmer manages party discipline once in power.
Given how Tory splits have effectively destroyed their effectiveness in office, managing the party is going to need to be Starmer's top priority if he wants to achieve anything.
Everyone loves a winner. Party discipline will not be an immediate problem.
Comments
I just started reading the IG report (whistleblower re: non-use of generic drugs) in Trump’s White House that uncovered a prescription drug ring.
I am blown away that this isn’t the number one story in the country!
Screenshots from just the first two pages. Laws were broken.
https://twitter.com/priusjames/status/1751311301593407782
Academic life is important but secondary
This is what it used to be in the UK, to an extent: the social expansion was as important as the academic achievement. It was a chance for bright kids from poorer backgrounds to meet more privileged people and learn and grow in confidence - socially as much as scholastically
I fear we are losing a lot of that
We may think it’s unfair on UK nationals but criticisms should be laid at the government for forcing universities to go down this route.
Bloody foreigners, eh?
A group of friends and acquaintances, friends of friends, is an important stabiliser for life.
Clearly you’re an obsessed nerd with no social life who spends too much time on an obscure website (Ed: ahem) but having a hinterland is an important part of becoming a functioning adult.
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
The bigger problem is those who muck about and yet still rise effortlessly through the ranks because of their contacts.
I still have half a dozen good friends from uni - now in all walks of life - and I have a dozen friends from the years “around uni”. When I was madly socialising and exploring london and doing drugs and going to parties and also learning in my own way - I got a crap 2:2 at Philosophy but I got a First in Learning how life works
And it gave me a hunger to learn more on all fronts
I’d rather have the first and the 2:2 that way round
Half my friendship group - nearly four decades later - is from those crucial years 18-24
And that's certainly not the case he was making. He was criticising students for being studious. I was pointing out that's just more of his silliness.
I'd given up following the test. This sounds to have been fairly remarkable.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/jan/27/an-absolute-masterclass-root-says-pope-innings-has-set-new-benchmark
BSc (Hons), 1997
PhD (2002).
• Labour 42% (+2)
• Conservatives 27% (n/c)
• Lib Dems 10% (-1)
• SNP 3% (n/c)
• Greens 6% (n/c)
• Reform 10% (n/c)
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1751334275721400502
Edit it is a 15% lead, data tables confirm that.
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
As most of the Conservative held seats in Scotland have the SNP as the clear second place challenger with the LDs and Labour far behind, the likelihood is both the Conservative and SNP shares will fall equally and Labour will gains trongly but still be third. That being said, the gap between Conservative and SNP isn't great and relying on UNS might not be entirely wise.
comprehension
University is about (I) learning how to think not learning facts; (ii) learning how to live independently; and (iii) nurturing a hinterland. It is decidedly not just about studying every hour that God sends.
And she got it!
International Criminal Court? They bloody well should be.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
I do regret it a little, but I didn’t have much choice.
Very political week. Tuesday round table with a Labour shadow minister, Thursday Lib Dem bash and Friday talking to a Tory about stuff to feed in to Hunt.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Do we want governments interfering all the time in what the universities do? No. Can they be left to regulate and govern themselves? No. We need a declaration of principles for what we want Universities to be. The Chicago principles would be something to look at.
I think the Kingswood and Wellingborough contests next month will be hugely informative - I suspect they will end any prospect of May and may impact the Budget (will Hunt, pace Clarke in 1997 realise the game is up and the honourable thing will be to bequeath as good an economic position for Labour as possible in the interests of the country or will there still be a hope tax cuts will swing the electorate back even at this late stage?)
If we go on to May, the locals are part of the 2021 set - they will be the 2020 contests which were postponed a year. That may not help the Conservatives too much given the very different landscape.
Assuming a poor night for the Conservatives, what then? Do we see a second tax cutting budget in the autumn and a trap set for Labour or will it be a quiet dignified exit?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68118092
John Lewis planning major job cuts over five years
John Lewis has confirmed it is planning to further cut its workforce over the next five years.
Up to 11,000 jobs at the retail partnership - amounting to 10% of the workforce - could reportedly go, according to the Guardian.
John Lewis said the losses would include redundancies and not replacing vacant positions.
It would not confirm numbers to the BBC, but said plans to return the business to profit would mean cuts.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
Sheffield's Joe Root will bowl England to victory tomorrow.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
They were in every lecture and seminar, swotty and diligently taking notes, but you never saw hide nor hair of them at other times. And they didn't come to anything social - ever.
Interestingly quite a few of them got 2:1s because whilst they absolutely nailed the technical exams (getting very high firsts) they struggled with the project/group work that dragged down their average, particularly in the crucial finals year.
Local-ish-place: "So, student 123 got 74% - so that's a 'B'"
China: :: much muttering :: "No - we have given you the wrong figure - they actually got 94%!"
"So.... that means they get an 'A'. ... Ok. Student 456 got 68% - that's a 'C'"
:: much muttering :: "No - wrong figure again, sorry - they got 91%!"
"So... that means they get an 'A'" ...... ........."
It's made me a tad cynical about how amazing SE.Asian education is in general.
Teacher who showed Muhammad cartoon still in hiding 3 years later
The former head of religious studies at Batley Grammar School in West Yorkshire is unlikely ever to return home, his family say
The man, who was head of religious studies at Batley Grammar School in West Yorkshire, presented a drawing taken from the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo during one of his classes, provoking several days of demonstrations outside the school gates.
He was put into police protection after allegedly receiving death threats and now lives with his partner and four children under an assumed name in a secret location outside Yorkshire.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/teacher-who-showed-muhammad-cartoon-still-in-hiding-3-years-later-x86nk0870
I was never the essay crisis student.
Lib Dems are getting 10% or so
Greens are a bit of Spare Labour, I’ll grant you.
Etc etc
Where could he get votes *from*?
I've actually "done" politics (albeit a while ago) and the Conservatives will be testing the public mood weekly with their own focus groups and surveys (they also do their own polling and don't rely on what we see).
It's quite clear the card they think is their best is tax cuts and a brief but general economic improvement predicated on falling inflation and cuts in interest rates.
Tax cuts may or may not be sound economics but they are usually good politics and lay the trap for the opposition parties.
Hunt will, I suspect, offer tax cuts in March with a promise of more to come and that will be in the early autumn with a second round of "feelgood" bribes to the electorate to launch the campaign.
All of this will be monitored, surveyed and followed. In 1997, the Wirral South by-election was the knockout blow for Major - the swing was huge and the party machine will have told him defeat on a catastrophic scale was inevitable.
Kingswood and Wellingborough on February 15th will send a similar message to Sunak and that will be if you want to go in May the chances are the swings you see in these seats will be repeated nationally. Only if the results are not as bad will a May election come back on the table.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
To describe it as poor for Labour shows why you're not considered a serious poster.
Call me unconvinced.
See in those days British Rail was seriously unreliable and even more unsafe.
University turned a shy nerd into the man I am today.
https://www.ucu.org.uk/article/13403/Strike-ballot-opens-at-Aberdeen-university-in-row-over-job-cuts-in-modern-languages
The trouble is it hasn't - because it's been chronically short-termist, utterly bereft of serious thinking and obsessed with the next headline with a series of sugar rush policy and gimmicks. On top, the behaviour of the parliamentary party has been and continues to be atrocious.
That said, Root and Wood will take any wickets going because with Leach out they're pretty much our only two bowlers.
I am even sure how and why you are getting this badly wrong, and can explain it to you.
I suspect you are getting it wrong because you are comparing to a whole half century experience of living through General Elections which I can’t call on. But ironically using all that knowledge here is actually your weakest facet.
Is it not unusual to be in an election year without any chance of winning, nothing to show for continual hard work except manage less of a hammering, all whilst having to wait till depth of winter for the parliament to time out? In such unusual situations does “hangs on to the last” always apply?
This is a bit of a unique situation, I suggest we may have to disregard some previous understandings. I think the case is too strong for May 2nd election returning the best possible Conservative campaign and result this year, to the extent they can’t spurn it.
Except that what learning from experience that can be called on is the opposite of what you are thinking. Dan Finkelstein, who advised John Major, has argued 97 was a heavier defeat for hanging on till the bitter end. For sure there are voices around Sunak right now, offering sound reasons for why if heading for opposition anyway, the spring election backdrop can gain the least worst result.
Why is waiting founded upon the soundest most creative and agile reasoning? The current Spanish government called one early whilst behind in polls, they had seemed on course for defeat, but are still the government, just. What if they had waited? And what if previous UK governments hadn’t waited and called those elections that never were - autumn 1978, autumn 2007 - and what it worked for them like it did in Spain last year? Better results for the government, maybe even different political history altogether, like Lady Thatcher never became Primeminister at all?
A more worrying trend is the closure of multiple English departments. Which has - unthinkably - turned English into a shortage subject in secondary education.
The problem is partly the new A-level, partly the cockups over Russell group numbers - but mostly it's the really shite GCSEs which are putting people right off all these subjects.
It's one reason why I wonder how much longer GCSEs have to go.
But then, SATs are even more worthless and nobody's got rid of them.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
So it would be a bad move
Isn’t reading it like this nonsense?
It surely depends on how likely the 16 & 22% were to vote Conservative to start off with. If the 16% were 2019 Tory voters, & the 22% were people who would never vote Tory anyway, it would be sensible to replace Sunak with Boris
35% of 2019 Tories surveyed said it would make them more likely to vote for them again. I haven’t seen the other side of that question
*Yes - I know, the logic ... but to a certain mind ...
Anyhoo, I won't be able to watch the match tomorrow as I am off to Anfield tomorrow and I am going to be an emotional wreck.
This sounds like awful after timing now, but I promise it’s true. Or at least that’s what I remember thinking… maybe there’s a post that shows I am after timing... people were definitely saying laying 7/1 was a great bet, I think headers were written suggesting it, and I remember thinking “hmmm not for me, I’ll just plough into the Con Maj”
I even said to my partner I might put 20k we had saved for a deposit on it, as I just couldn’t see how it wasn’t massive value. Makes the £500 I’m going to lose seem like a result
Ben Lauderdale did a study paper years ago why you should look at all voters just not your past voters when it comes to this type of question, and 35% is a pretty poor stat.
Given how Tory splits have effectively destroyed their effectiveness in office, managing the party is going to need to be Starmer's top priority if he wants to achieve anything.
Edit: I see what you mean.
FWIW I expect Labour would win the 2029 election even if that polling happened in 2026.