That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Let's see where Labour are at in 3 years.
I said to JohnO last week, I suspect with 18-24 months of taking power Labour could be fourth in the polls as they get outflanked on several fronts.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
Are you offering odds on that?
If the polls hold and Labour win a landslide, it will be interesting to see how Starmer manages party discipline once in power.
Given how Tory splits have effectively destroyed their effectiveness in office, managing the party is going to need to be Starmer's top priority if he wants to achieve anything.
#StarmerOut is already trending on Twitter (X) and he's not even IN yet... That should tell you all you need to know about what's going to happen when he does take office.
Labour are nowhere near ready for government and that will become apparent very quickly in 2025, IMO.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Opinium in this Parliament reminds me a little bit of ICM in the 92-97 Parliament.
...goes off to check Wiki 'Opinion Polling for the 1997 general election'.
They were the least wrong pollster in that parliament.
A few weeks before election day they had the Labour lead down to 5%.
There was a YouGov in The Times today which showed 16% of voters being more likely to vote Conservative if Boris replaced Rishi, but 22% being less likely to do so
So it would be a bad move
Isn’t reading it like this nonsense?
It surely depends on how likely the 16 & 22% were to vote Conservative to start off with. If the 16% were 2019 Tory voters, & the 22% were people who would never vote Tory anyway, it would be sensible to replace Sunak with Boris
35% of 2019 Tories surveyed said it would make them more likely to vote for them again. I haven’t seen the other side of that question
Nope, being a net liability overall is what will drive up tactical voting against the Tories led by Boris Johnson at a level that wouldn't happen under Sunak.
Ben Lauderdale did a study paper years ago why you should look at all voters just not your past voters when it comes to this type of question, and 35% is a pretty poor stat.
So if the 16% were all possible Tories and the 22% were all definitely not Tory, it would be a bad thing to replace? I’m not having that
35% doesn’t seem that high but it depends how many 2019 Tories say they’d be less likely. Do you know what that % is?
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Opinium in this Parliament reminds me a little bit of ICM in the 92-97 Parliament.
...goes off to check Wiki 'Opinion Polling for the 1997 general election'.
They were the least wrong pollster in that parliament.
A few weeks before election day they had the Labour lead down to 5%.
There was a YouGov in The Times today which showed 16% of voters being more likely to vote Conservative if Boris replaced Rishi, but 22% being less likely to do so
So it would be a bad move
Isn’t reading it like this nonsense?
It surely depends on how likely the 16 & 22% were to vote Conservative to start off with. If the 16% were 2019 Tory voters, & the 22% were people who would never vote Tory anyway, it would be sensible to replace Sunak with Boris
35% of 2019 Tories surveyed said it would make them more likely to vote for them again. I haven’t seen the other side of that question
Nope, being a net liability overall is what will drive up tactical voting against the Tories led by Boris Johnson at a level that wouldn't happen under Sunak.
Ben Lauderdale did a study paper years ago why you should look at all voters just not your past voters when it comes to this type of question, and 35% is a pretty poor stat.
So if the 16% were all possible Tories and the 22% were all definitely not Tory, it would be a bad thing to replace? I’m not having that
35% doesn’t seem that high but it depends how many 2019 Tories say they’d be less likely. Do you know what that % is?
Not seen that figure yet, I suspect it will be released start of next week.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Let's see where Labour are at in 3 years.
I said to JohnO last week, I suspect with 18-24 months of taking power Labour could be fourth in the polls as they get outflanked on several fronts.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
Are you offering odds on that?
If the polls hold and Labour win a landslide, it will be interesting to see how Starmer manages party discipline once in power.
Given how Tory splits have effectively destroyed their effectiveness in office, managing the party is going to need to be Starmer's top priority if he wants to achieve anything.
#StarmerOut is already trending on Twitter (X) and he's not even IN yet... That should tell you all you need to know about what's going to happen when he does take office.
Labour are nowhere near ready for government and that will become apparent very quickly in 2025, IMO.
Lol. What would make Labour ready for government', another 5 years in opposition?
The Tories have shown they are nowhere near ready for government after 13 years in office.
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
The virtuous circle of success? The past two weeks have been when even large parts of the Tory press realised the game is up.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Opinium in this Parliament reminds me a little bit of ICM in the 92-97 Parliament.
...goes off to check Wiki 'Opinion Polling for the 1997 general election'.
They were the least wrong pollster in that parliament.
A few weeks before election day they had the Labour lead down to 5%.
Didn't that give everyone a jolt that evening!
It did, funny thing about that poll, it was only 1% of Labour's actual share off the vote at the GE, they just massively overestimated the Tories.
To be fair to ICM their final poll had the lead at at 10% versus the actual result of 12.5%.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Opinium in this Parliament reminds me a little bit of ICM in the 92-97 Parliament.
...goes off to check Wiki 'Opinion Polling for the 1997 general election'.
They were the least wrong pollster in that parliament.
A few weeks before election day they had the Labour lead down to 5%.
Gallup were closest at 13%, versus the actual result of 12.5%
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Opinium in this Parliament reminds me a little bit of ICM in the 92-97 Parliament.
...goes off to check Wiki 'Opinion Polling for the 1997 general election'.
They were the least wrong pollster in that parliament.
A few weeks before election day they had the Labour lead down to 5%.
Gallup were closest at 13%, versus the actual result of 12.5%
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
18 months ago we were being told that the Conservatives were hitting their polling floor at 30%.
I found a thread from 3 years ago where some posters were openly speculating if Labour would ever lead in the polls in this parliament
Let's see where Labour are at in 3 years.
I said to JohnO last week, I suspect with 18-24 months of taking power Labour could be fourth in the polls as they get outflanked on several fronts.
Right now their vote is mostly getting the Tories out.
Post election that will splinter, there'll be those on the left who want more lefty policies so Labour sheds votes to the Greens, they shed votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems, they can lose votes to Reform if the boats continue and legal immigration remains high.
Are you offering odds on that?
If the polls hold and Labour win a landslide, it will be interesting to see how Starmer manages party discipline once in power.
Given how Tory splits have effectively destroyed their effectiveness in office, managing the party is going to need to be Starmer's top priority if he wants to achieve anything.
#StarmerOut is already trending on Twitter (X) and he's not even IN yet... That should tell you all you need to know about what's going to happen when he does take office.
Labour are nowhere near ready for government and that will become apparent very quickly in 2025, IMO.
Lol. What would make Labour ready for government', another 5 years in opposition?
The Tories have shown they are nowhere near ready for government after 13 years in office.
I mean, the Tories were ready for government in their first term - I do have to give Cameron and Osborne that.
Obviously things went south after 2016 but for the first five or six years they were pretty competent.
I think Labour at the moment are roughly where they were under Kinnock around 1990-1992. Starmer has done a lot of the heavy lifting to get rid of the loopy left (as Kinnock did) but ideally they were have a final term in Opposition.
We're basically going to see what would have happened if Kinnock had won the 92 election. Should be interesting.
The South Asian students thing is true. I remember it from over 20 years ago when I was at university. They were mainly Hong Kong Chinese, Malaysians and Singaporean.
They were in every lecture and seminar, swotty and diligently taking notes, but you never saw hide nor hair of them at other times. And they didn't come to anything social - ever.
Interestingly quite a few of them got 2:1s because whilst they absolutely nailed the technical exams (getting very high firsts) they struggled with the project/group work that dragged down their average, particularly in the crucial finals year.
It's interesting that, I was in every lecture/seminar etc and was a proper girly swot but I was also a social/party animal (the former was inevitable because that's the person I was when I arrived at university but I never expected to turn into the latter.)
I was never the essay crisis student.
Yes, but you're British.
I know but in those days I was probably more South Asian than British when it came to education/university.
University turned a shy nerd into the man I am today.
That's a decent poll for Labour from Opinium - back to the late October 2023 numbers.
If they are still the numbers in late October 2024 I imagine Starmer will be pretty happy.
Starmer is at maximum possible Labour vote, I think.
Nah, 15 months ago, Starmer had Labour polling at 57%..
+1 Labour from last poll, not 2 I think.
It’s been poor movement for Labour from Opinum for 2 polls in a row now, IMO. It just cannot be a 2 poll correction from the very poor 40% sample AND picking up movement most other pollsters in recent weeks finding at the same time as correcting a low outlier, you can’t have both from 2 just +1 moves, so Opinium are genuinely not find Labour support this year, nothing to do with the Swingback adjustment, this is just plainly obvious to us when seeing the near nothing in travel from same poster.
Opinium in this Parliament reminds me a little bit of ICM in the 92-97 Parliament.
...goes off to check Wiki 'Opinion Polling for the 1997 general election'.
They were the least wrong pollster in that parliament.
A few weeks before election day they had the Labour lead down to 5%.
Gallup were closest at 13%, versus the actual result of 12.5%
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
The virtuous circle of success? The past two weeks have been when even large parts of the Tory press realised the game is up.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
He is acting, and being treated like, a PM now. His X posts, aka tweets, have the air of someone who is certain of winning, and that confidence is infectious. So if he becomes Prime Minister, there’s no certainty that he’s going to mess it up. Even before the Tories handed him a 20 point poll lead, he had changed the Labour Party a fair bit.
He’s unscrupulous, lies through his teeth and backtracks on almost everything he says, but don’t all politicians? He’s Chuck Rhoades to the Tories Bobby Axelrod
One of the lesser known but quite significant impacts is how they reduce the social life of the university. For a start, if you have a massively diverse student body - many non British and non European - that means it takes longer for students to get to know each other and bond. Languages and cultures are an extra barrier beyond newness and shyness
Also the intake of often comparatively introverted and scholastic Chinese and south Asian students detracts from the “fun” aspect of student life. I’ve heard this from friends’ children. There is less partying because they are all studying
It may seem trivial. It may seem prejudiced. But I’ve heard this from various first hand sources
How bloody dare they spend their time at an educational institution studying to get an education?
There are lots of reasons to be bothered about the British university sector but that's one of the silliest things you've ever posted.
The effect on students here who get the same grades as these overseas students but are denied a place because they don't come with enough money attached is probably more serious.
I had a (domestic) student who got into a Russell Group uni via one of these foundation courses with three Cs.
She is now an adviser to the DfT despite having no knowledge of either geography or transport systems.
Make of that what you will.
I think you will find she has at least some knowledge of geography.
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
The virtuous circle of success? The past two weeks have been when even large parts of the Tory press realised the game is up.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
He is acting, and being treated like, a PM now. His X posts, aka tweets, have the air of someone who is certain of winning, and that confidence is infectious. So if he becomes Prime Minister, there’s no certainty that he’s going to mess it up. Even before the Tories handed him a 20 point poll lead, he had changed the Labour Party a fair bit.
He’s unscrupulous, lies through his teeth and backtracks on almost everything he says, but don’t all politicians? He’s Chuck Rhoades to the Tories Bobby Axelrod
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
In my day the students just visited on their own.
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
A while back my son's school organised a supervised coach trip to the open day of one of the more popular universities; according to my son this was because a group of pupils the previous year had organised their own open day visit and apparently went "on a massive bender" in the city afterwards and failed to turn up to school the next day.
My confidence – or maybe that less benevolent term – was rewarded, and I left school at 16 having done A- and S-levels and with my place at Trinity College, Cambridge secured. My interview at Trinity lasted only about ten minutes, although I was told that I might have cause for optimism based on my exam scores. I was expecting this to go down very well with my parents when I returned home, but the discovery that I’d gone to a big race meeting at Doncaster after the interview and managed to lose my travel bag into the bargain meant that I was far from popular. Patrick Veitch. Enemy Number One: The Secrets of the UK's Most Feared Professional Punter
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
The virtuous circle of success? The past two weeks have been when even large parts of the Tory press realised the game is up.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
He is acting, and being treated like, a PM now. His X posts, aka tweets, have the air of someone who is certain of winning, and that confidence is infectious. So if he becomes Prime Minister, there’s no certainty that he’s going to mess it up. Even before the Tories handed him a 20 point poll lead, he had changed the Labour Party a fair bit.
He’s unscrupulous, lies through his teeth and backtracks on almost everything he says, but don’t all politicians? He’s Chuck Rhoades to the Tories Bobby Axelrod
So who is Mike Prince?
I suppose Rishi is, Boris being Bobby
I haven’t actually watched it since Damian Lewis left, so can’t really say. I’m assuming it follows a similar pattern?
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
The virtuous circle of success? The past two weeks have been when even large parts of the Tory press realised the game is up.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
He is acting, and being treated like, a PM now. His X posts, aka tweets, have the air of someone who is certain of winning, and that confidence is infectious. So if he becomes Prime Minister, there’s no certainty that he’s going to mess it up. Even before the Tories handed him a 20 point poll lead, he had changed the Labour Party a fair bit.
He’s unscrupulous, lies through his teeth and backtracks on almost everything he says, but don’t all politicians? He’s Chuck Rhoades to the Tories Bobby Axelrod
So who is Mike Prince?
I suppose Rishi is, Boris being Bobby
I haven’t actually watched it since Damian Lewis left, so can’t really say. I’m assuming it follows a similar pattern?
Go and watch the latter seasons because the final season is fucking awesome.
About 13% difference… hmm these things are generally a lay. Would Liverpool’s squad be right for his style of play, which I’m assuming is tiki-taka esque (could be wrong, I’ve barely watched them)
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
The virtuous circle of success? The past two weeks have been when even large parts of the Tory press realised the game is up.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
He is acting, and being treated like, a PM now. His X posts, aka tweets, have the air of someone who is certain of winning, and that confidence is infectious. So if he becomes Prime Minister, there’s no certainty that he’s going to mess it up. Even before the Tories handed him a 20 point poll lead, he had changed the Labour Party a fair bit.
He’s unscrupulous, lies through his teeth and backtracks on almost everything he says, but don’t all politicians? He’s Chuck Rhoades to the Tories Bobby Axelrod
So who is Mike Prince?
I suppose Rishi is, Boris being Bobby
I haven’t actually watched it since Damian Lewis left, so can’t really say. I’m assuming it follows a similar pattern?
Go and watch the latter seasons because the final season is fucking awesome.
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
The virtuous circle of success? The past two weeks have been when even large parts of the Tory press realised the game is up.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
He is acting, and being treated like, a PM now. His X posts, aka tweets, have the air of someone who is certain of winning, and that confidence is infectious. So if he becomes Prime Minister, there’s no certainty that he’s going to mess it up. Even before the Tories handed him a 20 point poll lead, he had changed the Labour Party a fair bit.
He’s unscrupulous, lies through his teeth and backtracks on almost everything he says, but don’t all politicians? He’s Chuck Rhoades to the Tories Bobby Axelrod
So who is Mike Prince?
I suppose Rishi is, Boris being Bobby
I haven’t actually watched it since Damian Lewis left, so can’t really say. I’m assuming it follows a similar pattern?
Go and watch the latter seasons because the final season is fucking awesome.
I shall
You'll need to watch all the seasons with Mike Prince otherwise it won't make sense.
Rishi Sunak's approval sees no real change from a fortnight ago, as 54% disapprove and 24% approve.
His net approval is -30%.
However, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are up a hefty 6 points (31% approve, 35% disapprove) since two weeks ago.
However, they still remain in net negative territory on -3%.
The virtuous circle of success? The past two weeks have been when even large parts of the Tory press realised the game is up.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
He is acting, and being treated like, a PM now. His X posts, aka tweets, have the air of someone who is certain of winning, and that confidence is infectious. So if he becomes Prime Minister, there’s no certainty that he’s going to mess it up. Even before the Tories handed him a 20 point poll lead, he had changed the Labour Party a fair bit.
He’s unscrupulous, lies through his teeth and backtracks on almost everything he says, but don’t all politicians? He’s Chuck Rhoades to the Tories Bobby Axelrod
So who is Mike Prince?
I suppose Rishi is, Boris being Bobby
I haven’t actually watched it since Damian Lewis left, so can’t really say. I’m assuming it follows a similar pattern?
Go and watch the latter seasons because the final season is fucking awesome.
I shall
You'll need to watch all the seasons with Mike Prince otherwise it won't make sense.
Wiki tells me I’ve watched up to the end of Season 5, so two to go
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
The economy will be okay this year. The government will hope to capitalise on full employment, plus real wage increases.
I’m confident Labours loving that sort of complacent thinking. That full employment plus real wage increases is the big talking point, not the covid enquiry report, technical recession and boats, boats, and yes, more boats 🙂
As the PB Tories convince us they actually won't vote Tory, the question in the real world, is will the Tories lose more badly than 1997?
I’ve thought since 2019 that the end result of Bozo in power would be the utter destruction of the Tory party and nothing has changed my opinion since then.
I suspect that if the Tory party delay the election past May they will end up with less than 100 seats
Paul Waugh has failed to become Labour’s candidate in Rochdale and. as a Labour member, his future journalism could be seen as a bit biased… Azhar Alli beat him to it
Meanwhile
I will be a candidate in the forthcoming #Rochdale by-election. Someone has to teach #Starmer and #GenocideLabour a lesson. #Gaza
I am trying to think of a recent example of a journalist failing to become an MP at their first attempt then continuing their journalism career until they finally becoming an MP?
Paul Waugh to be PM 2046.
Boris Johnson in the 1990s, I think.
Perhaps also Matt Warman, formerly of the Telegraph?
Paul Waugh has failed to become Labour’s candidate in Rochdale and. as a Labour member, his future journalism could be seen as a bit biased… Azhar Alli beat him to it
Meanwhile
I will be a candidate in the forthcoming #Rochdale by-election. Someone has to teach #Starmer and #GenocideLabour a lesson. #Gaza
I am trying to think of a recent example of a journalist failing to become an MP at their first attempt then continuing their journalism career until they finally becoming an MP?
Paul Waugh to be PM 2046.
Boris Johnson in the 1990s, I think.
Perhaps also Matt Warman, formerly of the Telegraph?
I am not sure whether he tried more than once.
Indeed, which is why I picked Paul Waugh as PM in 2046, 22 years from today, which is the timeframe for Boris Johnson from first failing to become an MP to becoming PM.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
In my day the students just visited on their own.
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
A while back my son's school organised a supervised coach trip to the open day of one of the more popular universities; according to my son this was because a group of pupils the previous year had organised their own open day visit and apparently went "on a massive bender" in the city afterwards and failed to turn up to school the next day.
My confidence – or maybe that less benevolent term – was rewarded, and I left school at 16 having done A- and S-levels and with my place at Trinity College, Cambridge secured. My interview at Trinity lasted only about ten minutes, although I was told that I might have cause for optimism based on my exam scores. I was expecting this to go down very well with my parents when I returned home, but the discovery that I’d gone to a big race meeting at Doncaster after the interview and managed to lose my travel bag into the bargain meant that I was far from popular. Patrick Veitch. Enemy Number One: The Secrets of the UK's Most Feared Professional Punter
I'm not sure Peter Veitch is more feared than Mathew Benham or Tony Bloom.
George Mann @sgfmann · 13m Sunday Express: RISHI TARGETS SAGA VOTES TO WIN ELECTION #TomorrowsPapersToday
===
More sweeties for the old.
Quadruple lock incoming?
Perfect story for the whose readership must by 75+ as it always was older than other papers.
And it literally means the Tories may retain eastbourne and similar seats but good look in the 630 or so seats with younger demographics
If the Tories hold Eastbourne that’s a very bad sign for the Lib Dems .
This is one of their main target seats and I’d be astonished if the Tories hold onto it .
The Lib Dem PPC is Josh Babarinde and he’s being pushed to the fore in lots of national marketing. Impressive chap. He gave the “to the lassies” speech at the Burns supper this week.
As the PB Tories convince us they actually won't vote Tory, the question in the real world, is will the Tories lose more badly than 1997?
I’ve thought since 2019 that the end result of Bozo in power would be the utter destruction of the Tory party and nothing has changed my opinion since then.
I suspect that if the Tory party delay the election past May they will end up with less than 100 seats
The real benchmark is the innings defeat: less than half of the Labour seat total. Only happened twice this last century.
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps · 3h 🟠 HAMBLE VALLEY: Hampshire councillor Prad Bains picked as Lib Dem candidate. Among other contenders he beat the TV reporter and journalist John Sweeney for the nomination.
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
In shock horror news splash Laura K expresses less than full throated support for Labour. Knock me down with a feather. This is like saying watch Fox News tomorrow, they’re withering in their criticism of Biden.
George Mann @sgfmann · 13m Sunday Express: RISHI TARGETS SAGA VOTES TO WIN ELECTION #TomorrowsPapersToday
===
More sweeties for the old.
Quadruple lock incoming?
Perfect story for the whose readership must by 75+ as it always was older than other papers.
And it literally means the Tories may retain eastbourne and similar seats but good look in the 630 or so seats with younger demographics
If the Tories hold Eastbourne that’s a very bad sign for the Lib Dems .
This is one of their main target seats and I’d be astonished if the Tories hold onto it .
The Lib Dem PPC is Josh Babarinde and he’s being pushed to the fore in lots of national marketing. Impressive chap. He gave the “to the lassies” speech at the Burns supper this week.
He’s funny looking . I happen to live in Eastbourne when I’m in the UK and he’s always on the literature . I’m looking forward to the Tory canvassers turning up so I can tell them exactly what I think of their party . Of course I’ll be polite but I’ll get to the point.
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
Er no. That's not what the supporting article says:
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
In shock horror news splash Laura K expresses less than full throated support for Labour. Knock me down with a feather. This is like saying watch Fox News tomorrow, they’re withering in their criticism of Biden.
It appears to be a studiously balanced BBC filler. Could have been written by ChatGTP. Probably was.
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
She needs to stop arse licking the Tories . It’s in the BBCs interests that the Tories lose the next GE .
As the PB Tories convince us they actually won't vote Tory, the question in the real world, is will the Tories lose more badly than 1997?
I’ve thought since 2019 that the end result of Bozo in power would be the utter destruction of the Tory party and nothing has changed my opinion since then.
I suspect that if the Tory party delay the election past May they will end up with less than 100 seats
The real benchmark is the innings defeat: less than half of the Labour seat total. Only happened twice this last century.
True but at the moment 170 seats would be a good Tory results and with an early election that’s possible.
Wait until the summer and as the boats continue to come across the channel I can see Reform having field day as they highlight every arrival on social media
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
Er no. That's not what the supporting article says:
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
She needs to stop arse licking the Tories . It’s in the BBCs interests that the Tories lose the next GE .
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
In my day the students just visited on their own.
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
A while back my son's school organised a supervised coach trip to the open day of one of the more popular universities; according to my son this was because a group of pupils the previous year had organised their own open day visit and apparently went "on a massive bender" in the city afterwards and failed to turn up to school the next day.
My confidence – or maybe that less benevolent term – was rewarded, and I left school at 16 having done A- and S-levels and with my place at Trinity College, Cambridge secured. My interview at Trinity lasted only about ten minutes, although I was told that I might have cause for optimism based on my exam scores. I was expecting this to go down very well with my parents when I returned home, but the discovery that I’d gone to a big race meeting at Doncaster after the interview and managed to lose my travel bag into the bargain meant that I was far from popular. Patrick Veitch. Enemy Number One: The Secrets of the UK's Most Feared Professional Punter
I'm not sure Peter Veitch is more feared than Mathew Benham or Tony Bloom.
Veitch claimed to have made £10 million betting against UK bookmakers on horseracing. Bloom and Benham may have made more on football but in unregulated Far East markets.
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
She needs to stop arse licking the Tories . It’s in the BBCs interests that the Tories lose the next GE .
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
She needs to stop arse licking the Tories . It’s in the BBCs interests that the Tories lose the next GE .
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
The economy will be okay this year. The government will hope to capitalise on full employment, plus real wage increases.
I’m confident Labours loving that sort of complacent thinking. That full employment plus real wage increases is the big talking point, not the covid enquiry report, technical recession and boats, boats, and yes, more boats 🙂
"Well, Clarice, are the lambs still screaming?"
They have been quite well behaved the last few days, and thanks for asking.
George Mann @sgfmann · 13m Sunday Express: RISHI TARGETS SAGA VOTES TO WIN ELECTION #TomorrowsPapersToday
===
More sweeties for the old.
Quadruple lock incoming?
The problem with electoral bribes is at some point they lose their effectiveness. You can continue to sell the dream as much as you want but at some stage people do wake up, even if they still like the dream.
YouTube science populariser Sabine Hossenfelder has just put out a new video expressing her new-found pessimism about climate change. Her style is a matter of taste, but she's normally a pretty level-headed commenter on the topic, and she's worried that things are likely to go downhill rather faster then most of us have imagined:
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
The economy will be okay this year. The government will hope to capitalise on full employment, plus real wage increases.
I’m confident Labours loving that sort of complacent thinking. That full employment plus real wage increases is the big talking point, not the covid enquiry report, technical recession and boats, boats, and yes, more boats 🙂
"Well, Clarice, are the lambs still screaming?"
They have been quite well behaved the last few days, and thanks for asking.
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
All this talk of university is making me nostalgic.
I loved dragging my father all around the country for uni open days in late 1996 and early 1997.
In my day the students just visited on their own.
If anyone had turned up with their parents we'd have thought there was something wrong with them.
A while back my son's school organised a supervised coach trip to the open day of one of the more popular universities; according to my son this was because a group of pupils the previous year had organised their own open day visit and apparently went "on a massive bender" in the city afterwards and failed to turn up to school the next day.
My confidence – or maybe that less benevolent term – was rewarded, and I left school at 16 having done A- and S-levels and with my place at Trinity College, Cambridge secured. My interview at Trinity lasted only about ten minutes, although I was told that I might have cause for optimism based on my exam scores. I was expecting this to go down very well with my parents when I returned home, but the discovery that I’d gone to a big race meeting at Doncaster after the interview and managed to lose my travel bag into the bargain meant that I was far from popular. Patrick Veitch. Enemy Number One: The Secrets of the UK's Most Feared Professional Punter
I'm not sure Peter Veitch is more feared than Mathew Benham or Tony Bloom.
Veitch claimed to have made £10 million betting against UK bookmakers on horseracing. Bloom and Benham may have made more on football but in unregulated Far East markets.
Bloom and Benham will trade anywhere they can. And both of them are on speed dial from the big bookmakers if they want to lay off a position.
Main points - Trump can appeal the damages, he already has an appeal pending on the initial verdict from last year - An appeal would normally take 18 months or so. However the appeal on the first case was filed last year and would likely be combined with this one, so it's plausible (per this guy) that it could reach a verdict before the election - Trump can avoid paying Carroll while the appeal is pending, but he will have to send the court $92 million dollars (what he owes her plus 10% or so) - If he doesn't put up the $92 million dollars within 30 days, she can get his property seized and auctioned off
YouTube science populariser Sabine Hossenfelder has just put out a new video expressing her new-found pessimism about climate change. Her style is a matter of taste, but she's normally a pretty level-headed commenter on the topic, and she's worried that things are likely to go downhill rather faster then most of us have imagined:
I've encountered quite a few level-headed climate scientists expressing similar views. And no matter how many AI generated "Cat wearing a top hat" images I send them - they persist in their pessimism.
Rishi is a very dedicated Prime Minister. My shock then, is why many Tories want to replace him with one of the reportedly lazy Mordaunt, the even lazier Badenoch and in their dreams the bone idle Johnson.
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
Er no. That's not what the supporting article says:
Watch the BBC News at 10 edit. The Summary; Sunak weak, Starmer disliked, Laura. suggesting a new leader and it's all to play for.
That's the madness of the current situation.
Yes, the Conservatives will be doing well to hold 170 seats. And by elimination, that puts Labour on 380 or so. Which, as a turnaround from last time, is insane. And requires a fair bit of swingback from the current polling.
(One of the spikes on the Conservative Torture Device is that the worse things get, the greater the temptation to hang on, even if it costs more seats. If this really is the Last Conservative Government, they might as well have the final six months. And even if it isn't the LCG, it might as well be for the current crop of MPs and ministers.)
And yet the story is still a plague on both your houses. Starmer may be disliked, but that's as nothing to the contempt the public has for the other lot.
Liz! Liz! We want Liz back! Boris was unamusingly competent in comparison. Liz was like a glitchy DOS 386 rollercoaster simulator with a syntax error on line 49.
YouTube science populariser Sabine Hossenfelder has just put out a new video expressing her new-found pessimism about climate change. Her style is a matter of taste, but she's normally a pretty level-headed commenter on the topic, and she's worried that things are likely to go downhill rather faster then most of us have imagined:
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
Er no. That's not what the supporting article says:
Watch the BBC News at 10 edit. The Summary; Sunak weak, Starmer disliked, Laura. suggesting a new leader and it's all to play for.
That's the madness of the current situation.
Yes, the Conservatives will be doing well to hold 170 seats. And by elimination, that puts Labour on 380 or so. Which, as a turnaround from last time, is insane. And requires a fair bit of swingback from the current polling.
(One of the spikes on the Conservative Torture Device is that the worse things get, the greater the temptation to hang on, even if it costs more seats. If this really is the Last Conservative Government, they might as well have the final six months. And even if it isn't the LCG, it might as well be for the current crop of MPs and ministers.)
And yet the story is still a plague on both your houses. Starmer may be disliked, but that's as nothing to the contempt the public has for the other lot.
Vote Starmer. He'll have to do, I suppose.
I'm looking forward to Starmer the Chameleon revealing himself to be an incredibly dynamic and revolutionary PM, just to see the shocked reaction of, well, everyone to this remarkable transformation.
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
Why do you persist with this rubbish? Why do you bother?
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
Check out the bulletin. The panel were doubtful about Sunak's ability but were withering in their criticism of Starmer. Laura hinted that a change of leader* could change everything.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
Er no. That's not what the supporting article says:
Watch the BBC News at 10 edit. The Summary; Sunak weak, Starmer disliked, Laura. suggesting a new leader and it's all to play for.
That's the madness of the current situation.
Yes, the Conservatives will be doing well to hold 170 seats. And by elimination, that puts Labour on 380 or so. Which, as a turnaround from last time, is insane. And requires a fair bit of swingback from the current polling.
(One of the spikes on the Conservative Torture Device is that the worse things get, the greater the temptation to hang on, even if it costs more seats. If this really is the Last Conservative Government, they might as well have the final six months. And even if it isn't the LCG, it might as well be for the current crop of MPs and ministers.)
And yet the story is still a plague on both your houses. Starmer may be disliked, but that's as nothing to the contempt the public has for the other lot.
Vote Starmer. He'll have to do, I suppose.
And polls show Starmer is, if not resoundingly popular, certainly not as unpopular as most leaders of the governing or opposition party in recent years.
That's nothing. Starmer hasn't eaten since he was appointed as DPP.
Starmer has never eaten. He was in the vicinity of a curry some time ago, but never inhaled. Other than that he has been in a quantum superposition both eating and not eating.
On the subject of when the election might take place, a lot will depend on the polls at the time.
IF a governing party is leading the temptation is to run a short campaign (3-4 weeks) to allow for as little to go wrong as possible. IF a governing party is behind they'll go for a long campaign. If the polls are starting to turn 6 weeks give them more time to turn - if the polls aren't turning, 6 weeks gives time for something to happen.
It may well be Hunt will go for TWO tax cutting budgets this year - one in March and one in an early Autumn Statement soon after Parliament convenes after the Party Conference season.
The Conservatives are at the ICC in Birmingham from 29 September - 2 October.
Announcing the election a week later would make 14 November possible but I wonder if we'll get Parliament back, Hunt does an emergency Autumn Statement in the second week of October with some tax cuts and Sunak calls the dissolution immediately after with a 4-5 week campaign.
Again, that puts us mid -Novemberish.
I totally disagree.
It’s not just yourself responsible for getting this so wrong, Stodge, but most of PB seem incapable of understanding how and why the only way this decision is ever made and has ever been made by governments.
The Halycon bird uses the summer months to nest in the cliffs. This is not choice, like doing it whenever they want to, but decided on by when they can. For best results. If it tried it in the wrong weather, its nest wouldn’t work.
For a nest that stands best chance of beating the elements, Ditto the governments election campaign. To me, the only thing they are thinking of is - when can we get the best possible result from our campaign this year - when is the sweet spot?
Why do you think they want to stay in power longer, if it misses the most obvious sweet spot? Is Rishi, his MPs and party really loving life in power right now? If the modelling finds the best sweet spot option - to start new life post government and outside politics 6 months earlier than the timer forcing an election, AND THAT will leave the least bad result behind too, you seriously think they would refuse it?
Why? They are having so much fun? They are improving on their legacy all the time? They genuinely think something might turn up and give them a better result?
They need to give their campaign a chance to get the spotlight off their own failings and onto Labours inexperience, flip flops on policy and tens of billions in tax rises. look forward to that brighter future Rishi has put us on course for - tell us this future is so fragile it will not survive a change of government. The tagline is something like - been difficult 2020s whole world over, but we’ve set Britain back on course now with cutting tax and inflation - Now is not time to bring in novices, with their ruinous £30B tax hikes.
But reading your posts, you make out like Rishi and his team actually have a choice to call it whenever they want. They absolutely do not. They absolutely have to hold it at the best moment for that campaign actually working and getting swingback.
The modelling says May for the best possible result this year, the modelling says once the Covid enquiry reports, the economy contracts and the channel crossings surge up worse than last year, that could lead to a very bad result and the most impossible conditions to campaign under.
For what reason do you think they would ignore this modelling? Becuase the polls aren’t good enough to have an election? Then how are they going to look any better in second half of year, during covid enquiry report, economic downturn and up tick in illegal crossings 🤷♀️
The economy will be okay this year. The government will hope to capitalise on full employment, plus real wage increases.
I’m confident Labours loving that sort of complacent thinking. That full employment plus real wage increases is the big talking point, not the covid enquiry report, technical recession and boats, boats, and yes, more boats 🙂
"Well, Clarice, are the lambs still screaming?"
They have been quite well behaved the last few days, and thanks for asking.
Rishi is a very dedicated Prime Minister. My shock then, is why many Tories want to replace him with one of the reportedly lazy Mordaunt, the even lazier Badenoch and in their dreams the bone idle Johnson.
Maybe the dream is to be bone idle yet well paid? Possibly knocking out a Telegraph article about WFH or benefit scroungers while emailing your expenses claim in from the Algarve?
I’m seeing my son’s forthcoming university stint as an opportunity for his parents to have some interesting weekend breaks somewhere moderately visitable. Surely that’s the key requirement.
Hence no London university nonsense. Thumbs down to most unis in the midlands or bits of the North that remind me of my in-laws. Yes to Exeter, Swansea, Aberystwyth, Durham, Edinburgh, St Andrews or Plymouth.
Aberdeen is good
But watch out if modern languages is involved. The management has been trying to downgrade - shut down, some would say - that side of the university. Still a matter of argument.
Oh, I didn't know. Very different from my day.
The issue seems to have gone quiet lately, but basically anyone applyint for a degree in ML might want to take this into account. "proposal to end single honours degrees in modern languages". This obvs focuses on the union issues, but a look on google will get various news reports.
History departments are being culled left, right and centre too.
A more worrying trend is the closure of multiple English departments. Which has - unthinkably - turned English into a shortage subject in secondary education.
The problem is partly the new A-level, partly the cockups over Russell group numbers - but mostly it's the really shite GCSEs which are putting people right off all these subjects.
It's one reason why I wonder how much longer GCSEs have to go.
But then, SATs are even more worthless and nobody's got rid of them.
English is compulsory at GCSE, indeed English language has the 3rd highest number of GCSE entries after combined Science and Maths and English literature is 4th highest. History is part of the EBacc and is the 7th most popular GCSE with foreign languages 5th.
So there are still plenty of pupils who take these subjects at GCSE who could then take further study in them at A level and university
George Mann @sgfmann · 13m Sunday Express: RISHI TARGETS SAGA VOTES TO WIN ELECTION #TomorrowsPapersToday
===
More sweeties for the old.
Quadruple lock incoming?
The problem with electoral bribes is at some point they lose their effectiveness. You can continue to sell the dream as much as you want but at some stage people do wake up, even if they still like the dream.
When you are lying in your own piss on the floor at age 80 and waiting for an ambulance that wont come before dawn you maybe reconsider your vote.
Comments
Labour are nowhere near ready for government and that will become apparent very quickly in 2025, IMO.
A few weeks before election day they had the Labour lead down to 5%.
35% doesn’t seem that high but it depends how many 2019 Tories say they’d be less likely. Do you know what that % is?
The Tories have shown they are nowhere near ready for government after 13 years in office.
As a result, Starmer is increasingly viewed as a winner, as opposed to a likely one and the resulting glow boosts popularity.
It's like the only time Corbyn was approaching an even keel was after the 2017 election when those leaning left who viewed him as a bit of an idiot thought he must be doing something right after denying May a majority.
If/after he wins Starmer will likely get a boost too as people who previously thought he was a bit "meh" or a traitor but wanted Labour to win, decide he's rather great after all.
To be fair to ICM their final poll had the lead at at 10% versus the actual result of 12.5%.
Obviously things went south after 2016 but for the first five or six years they were pretty competent.
I think Labour at the moment are roughly where they were under Kinnock around 1990-1992. Starmer has done a lot of the heavy lifting to get rid of the loopy left (as Kinnock did) but ideally they were have a final term in Opposition.
We're basically going to see what would have happened if Kinnock had won the 92 election. Should be interesting.
He’s unscrupulous, lies through his teeth and backtracks on almost everything he says, but don’t all politicians? He’s Chuck Rhoades to the Tories Bobby Axelrod
George Mann
@sgfmann
·
13m
Sunday Express: RISHI TARGETS SAGA VOTES TO
WIN ELECTION #TomorrowsPapersToday
===
More sweeties for the old.
Quadruple lock incoming?
Patrick Veitch. Enemy Number One: The Secrets of the UK's Most Feared Professional Punter
I haven’t actually watched it since Damian Lewis left, so can’t really say. I’m assuming it follows a similar pattern?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/liverpool/next-permanent-manager
Hang on, you mean…
The final season will rock your world.
Stevie G must be gutted the way it’s worked out
Chuck Rhoades Jr (a bit self explanatory and the hot wife but no BDSM)
Chuck Rhoades Sr (Apparently we both say outrageous things and the young wife to be)
Bobby Axelrod (Because I like to win and my toe occasionally sits on that ethical line)
Wags (Because I am an enabler and loyal)
Hall (A fixer)
Ari (The annoying compliance guy)
Jock Jeffcoat (One arrogant sonofabitch)
And it literally means the Tories may retain eastbourne and similar seats but good look in the 630 or so seats with younger demographics
I suspect that if the Tory party delay the election past May they will end up with less than 100 seats
Perhaps also Matt Warman, formerly of the Telegraph?
I am not sure whether he tried more than once.
Just watching Top of the Pops 1993 that was on BBC4 yesterday and they had Radiohead on with this caption.
LauraK tomorrow is a must watch. A panel looking at Sunak and Starmer behind the polling. Starmer absolutely smashed by the panel.
This is one of their main target seats and I’d be astonished if the Tories hold onto it .
We know you don't believe it and it's not going to change the dial one degree.
* I am assuming Tory leader.
@Tomorrow'sMPs
@tomorrowsmps
·
3h
🟠 HAMBLE VALLEY: Hampshire councillor Prad Bains picked as Lib Dem candidate. Among other contenders he beat the TV reporter and journalist John Sweeney for the nomination.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68117596
Wait until the summer and as the boats continue to come across the channel I can see Reform having field day as they highlight every arrival on social media
And stop calling me Clarice.
I wasn't worried about climate change. Now I am.
Spoiler: AI's not going to solve it.
[@thetimes]
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1751374184482029849?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://mitchellepner.substack.com/p/frequently-asked-questions-about?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=612934&post_id=141108147&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=9w60&utm_medium=email
Main points
- Trump can appeal the damages, he already has an appeal pending on the initial verdict from last year
- An appeal would normally take 18 months or so. However the appeal on the first case was filed last year and would likely be combined with this one, so it's plausible (per this guy) that it could reach a verdict before the election
- Trump can avoid paying Carroll while the appeal is pending, but he will have to send the court $92 million dollars (what he owes her plus 10% or so)
- If he doesn't put up the $92 million dollars within 30 days, she can get his property seized and auctioned off
Memo to spin doctors, this is what we call trying too hard. It's the 'Hell yes I'm tough enough' of bland anecdotes.
Yes, the Conservatives will be doing well to hold 170 seats. And by elimination, that puts Labour on 380 or so. Which, as a turnaround from last time, is insane. And requires a fair bit of swingback from the current polling.
(One of the spikes on the Conservative Torture Device is that the worse things get, the greater the temptation to hang on, even if it costs more seats.
If this really is the Last Conservative Government, they might as well have the final six months. And even if it isn't the LCG, it might as well be for the current crop of MPs and ministers.)
And yet the story is still a plague on both your houses. Starmer may be disliked, but that's as nothing to the contempt the public has for the other lot.
Vote Starmer. He'll have to do, I suppose.
Foolishly I googled the symptoms, and the NHS say they include
“darker pee and paler poo than usual
pain in your tummy”
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/bile-duct-cancer/symptoms/
“Pee”, “poo” & “tummy”???
Isn’t this a bit ‘babyspeak’-ish??
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=27&LAB=42&LIB=10&Reform=10&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=33.1&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1.5&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.9&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
It don't mean a thing,
If it's uniform swing.
(Do wop do wop do wop do wop do wop do wop.)
Should mean he lives a long healthy life with refreshed young DNA.
So there are still plenty of pupils who take these subjects at GCSE who could then take further study in them at A level and university
https://thinkstudent.co.uk/the-most-popular-gcse-subjects-ranked/