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The WH2024 betting as Trump all but secures the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com
The WH2024 betting as Trump all but secures the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com
Today, the New Hampshire primary, should have been a big moment in the WH2024 except that De Santis has pulled out of the race after Nikki Haley had done the same.
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She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
If Trump wins NH he is the nominee, barring any constitutional issues.
1) What is the latest possible date to get on the ballot in the States; and
2) What is the process for changing a Republican candidate if one suddenly can’t stand?
1 must be well known, and 2 must have a precedent (I assume a previous candidate has died or something, rather than been sent to prison).
There must be a non-zero chance of Trump being forced out too late for a new Republican candidate.
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1749626048898114030
Rather weirdly, Biden isn’t on the Democratic primary ballot tonight, because of a row between the NH Dems and the White House, so now there’s a group of Dems encouraging voters to write-in Biden, another group encouraging a big turnout to vote for Dean Philips as a message to the party; and Nikki Haley, backed with a big money campaign, trying to get Dems to register as Republicans to vote against Trump. All rather confusing!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results
Coz if Biden wins in 24 there is no way Americans will give it to the Dems AGAIN in 28. And by then Trump will (surely) have disappeared. So I reckon a GOP victory is extremely likely (if Biden wins this year)
Both Vivek and Haley would be very strong candidates in 2028?
Only problem
1. You’d be tying up your money for about 23,000 years
2. I can’t actually find odds on the victor of POTUS 2028
Other than that I heartily recommend this BETTING TIP
Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.
But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.
That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.
It doesn't take that much money to keep a campaign going, if you aren't going all out. Some might think it a worthwhile... bet.
But he is an active poster so that's quite enough from me about what he did or didn't do.
I'm on her at 34 to get the nomination so fingers crossed. I'm not going to lay her.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/21/finland/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884
Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:
https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/
I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.
Just happens to be the right call at the moment.
And as it's the largest political betting market by a long way, it's not surprising it gets discussed a lot.
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
16m
Playing with
@benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority
https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/
Not really that plausible but it emphasizes how close the current Tory polling is to the point where their seat numbers start to collapse
How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?
The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.
In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.
Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.
In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.
Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo
More livestreaming fun!
But that's a rapidly declining source of tax with increasing numbers of hybrid and electric vehicles.
I often think back to the working mum of two behind the bar at my old local commenting that she was paying £600 a month heating her house last winter. And then I wonder how many people stopped heating their houses entirely.
And Cons the converse.
PR now!
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes-bulletin-january-2023
So for example a 1p cut in the basic rate of income tax from April 24 will reduce the tax take by £6bn in 24/25 and £7.4bn in 25/26.
https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1749638608577761385/mediaViewer
However, it never is.
We can therefore say, with confidence, that the threshold for a Labour majority is probably somewhere between a Labour lead of 5 and 10 points.
Probably.
https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1749600095413145890
That said, I've argued for months that Trump has the nomination sown up, barring disqualifying health or legal problems, and that remains the case now. A decent second for Haley keeps her in the race for now. Ironically, the one that could knock her out is her home state, where she really needs a win to retain credibility.
If Trump wins NH and Iowa though then he will be the first candidate of a major party who was not an incumbent President to win most delegates in both early states since John Kerry in 2004 and Kerry of course won that nomination relatively easily.
Otherwise Haley will have to hope the SC rules Trump can be blocked from ballots or he is convicted of a criminal offence and jailed by the convention
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/supermarkets-convenience-stores-and-pharmacies-will-have-to-accept-cash-new-laws-to-see-oral-contraception-sold-over-counter/a212277028.html
FPTP still ensures the Tories can govern alone, whereas under PR they would have to govern with Reform or the LDs again (or maybe even a German style grand coalition with Labour)
It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
As a general rule though, the deadline for general election access tends to be in September - it's quite a narrow window between conventions and the start of early voting so practical considerations mean it more-or-less has to be between mid-August and mid-Sept.
Deadlines for primary access have already passed in many states. Likewise, the deadlines to flip the party a candidate is running for (or as an independent) are also passing, meaning that losers in primaries don't get a second bite at the cherry.
Why? Because, to get all northern again for a minute, they've done fuck all round here. Too. many morons unexpectedly elected, fed the spin lines by head office which they parrot about all the things they are delivering. Whilst delivering nothing. Voters are used to nothing, but they're not used to being lied to about it.
Worse still is the parochial bigotry that was always close to the surface in many towns now whipped to a frenzy. They voted Brexit and then Boris to get the foreigners out. Gone. Its their fault we can't see a doctor, why the schools are crap, why there's no jobs and no money. And even in 2019 the lure of the further right was strong - the Brexit Party saved Labour in a stack of seats. I expect the number of FUKkers to be even higher this time, and vs 2019 they will mostly be transfers from Tory 2019 totals.
It is going to be a political bloodbath. And well deserved - will be fun to see what Lord Ben I'll Sue Houchen will do with his local support all gone and the wolves closing in on the scent of malfeasance...
"To live off Portobello Rd, you'd pay £860 a week for a 3-bed on average.
But immigrants in social housing pay ONLY £151 a week for a 3-bed on average.
Many are also allowed to RENT OUT rooms, profiteering on taxpayer-funded housing.
Not fair. Must change."
Going viral on TwiX
Tweeter seems to be a new kind of immigration-skeptical leftwinger (like that new party in Germany?), but I am not sure
https://x.com/JACKGUYANDERTON/status/1749480796568871121?s=20
in the end this was bound to happen - or it will happen. Mass immigration raises rents and house prices and that expecially impacts the young, who nonetheless vote Labour. The cognitive dissonance cannot continue forever
And it’s not usually as a racist comment we’ve always had a few people of Asian / African descent but there are noticeably more than used to be the case
Granted a lot of the people complaining won’t actually vote but it does show how many people think Bozo and co have utterly failed to deliver what they promised
Meanwhile, those at the top of the industry make out like bandits and hardly pay any taxes.
It ended very not well for plenty of the latter group.
Are they just better at it ?
Their tax enforcement is quite strict.
And if they stopped heating their houses entirely how were they paying £600 per month ?
Not to mention the £400 the government gave everyone toward energy bills last winter or the extra £650 those on low incomes received in 2022 or the £150 council tax rebate. **
And who are all these people who have been getting £900 this last year:
Eight million people on means-tested benefits will receive a final instalment of cost-of-living payments in February.
Those on benefits such as universal credit will be paid directly, without the need to make a claim, between 6 February and 22 February.
It is the last of three instalments that total £900.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61592496
** How many of us are aware of all these extra benefits which have been paid ? Even if you receive them they're often quickly forgotten - I'd forgotten about the council tax rebate of 2022.
Voting Conservative instead of Labour isn't going to materially improve the fortunes of the nation's young.
The witness is another 'Investigator' and it emerged that when he submitted his cv for the job, he put forward his wife's qualifications as his own!
The PO certainly found some pond life to carry out its dirty work.
I think most of us would be unable to say for certain that intimidation is not already a factor in what leading Republicans feel they can say, do or support.
Last time we could believe he would campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Not this time.
We are importing more people than America in the era of Ellis Island. Take a minute and grasp that
It is screamingly insane, it is a kind of Ponzi scheme, and all of this is happening as everyone admits the NHS can't cope, our sewage system can't cope, our infrastructure is fucked, and house-ownership is becoming a dream for anyone under 50
The Tories are going to be obliterated, and deservedly, to the extent they may never recover
However, Starmer will then have to tackle this issue. It cannot be ignored. What will he do?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/british-ev-startup-arrival-inches-closer-to-insolvency-sky-news/ar-BB1h5jpW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=137b5bf16e63432e8660c552d74366b6&ei=18
In the end a party will address this problem. It would be nice if it was one of the main democratic parties rather than a British version of AfD
Planning a trip to Las Vegas and Death Valley. Suggestions please?
Will do trip to Grand Canyon while in LV as well. I want to go by helicopter, but my wife won't get in one. I also I understand they only go to the West Rim, which doesn't seem the best option. So what do we do? I definitely want the helicopter trip somewhere in it, which I could do at the South Rim, but the trip to there seems a long way by road.
I'm planning this around a Santana concert.
Suggestions, suggestions, suggestions please?
I wasn't talking about people on benefits. Plenty of people on low incomes, believe it or not, not claiming benefits.
I have no idea how much they were paying the winter before that, because it's a single anecdote from a worker in a pub I used to drink in last winter. I'm not going back to question them on it. Quite possibly the figure was their combined gas + electricity bill. I didn't ask. Or quite possibly they lived in a house with electricity only, and no gas. I only know that is how much they were paying a month.
However I can tell you that my boiler costs one pound seventy something an hour to run, so you'd only need to be running it 8 hours a day to spend four hundred quid a month on gas central heating. Pretty possible for a poorly insulated three bedroom home in the depths of winter. A house with electric heating would be way over that.
That explains a lot.
Students dunno, but an awful lot of them have brought dependants (much more than usual), and a much higher propertion are now converting their student visas to work visas, so they stay
Now it's great that people want to come here, it's good our unis are attractive, I am sure 98% of these people are fantastic brain surgeons to be, but the simple fact is the UK cannot cope with 700,000 net immigrants a year. Remember when Cameron vowed to get it down to tens of thousands? Now it is SEVEN HUNDRED THOUSAND
To grasp this nettle will take courage. Does Starmer possess it? I doubt it, and it's not in Labour's nature to clamp down on migration
https://twitter.com/potus/status/1749494901698375854
Here is the President of the United States making a statement that is putting onus on voters to do stuff that he can already do. He could, in an Executive Order, say that all federal sites in the US will be usable for legal abortions. He could go to Congress and demand they pass a Roe v Wade bill, and when it gets stalled he could stand on the bully pulpit every day and scream at the top of his lungs that the GOP are refusing to pass it. He could have done these things before SCOTUS ripped it to shreds. Obama, who campaigned on codifying Roe in to law, could have done it when he had a super majority in Congress. And they didn't.
Whereas the GOP - as evil as their stated policy aims are - just do them. Want Roe overturned - we'll give you judges who do that. Want tax cuts for the rich? Done. Want a muslim ban - we'll do it, and when the courts tell us it's illegal we'll do it again, and we'll keep trying until we get tired or the courts give up. And we don't get tired. The GOP fight for their policy preferences.
This is one of the reasons the much bemoaned "faith in democracy" is falling. The right wing use election wins as a mandate to act, the centre / centre-left use it as a way to push the blame for not doing things on to voters (if only you'd given us a bigger mandate!). At least when an authoritarian refuses to bend to public will the public can feel moral when they riot, in a "democratic" system so many goddamn libs and bad faith right wingers argue "that's what the ballot box is for" (despite the fact that when right wingers lose at the ballot box they scream conspiracy and start plotting coups).
But be warned it is quite hair raising. I've done multiple helicopter rides - I've done microflight rides halfway up K2 - and this is the only one that has freaked me out. It is quite scary, and you get intense and various thermals from the desert and the canyon
I cannot remember which particular one we did. I remember we had to get a bus from LV which took about 30-60 minutes to some anonymous landing strip. It was the day Notre Dame burned down - news which came as light relief after that ride
Obviously I'd like heating to be cheap, but I don't necessarily object to people dressing for the seasons a bit more.
And if wishes were horses beggars would ride.