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The WH2024 betting as Trump all but secures the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,010
edited February 4 in General
imageThe WH2024 betting as Trump all but secures the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

Today, the New Hampshire primary, should have been a big moment in the WH2024 except that De Santis has pulled out of the race after Nikki Haley had done the same.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588
    First, like Biden in November!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588
    edited January 23
    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,993
    edited January 23
    Nikki hasn’t pulled out. I believe that Mike meant the nutty guy (Vivek? Forgotten him already!)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588

    Nikki hasn’t pulled out. I believe that Mike meant the nutty guy (Vivek? Forgotten him already!)

    That's a relief - she's my pick for the GOP nomination in the prediction competition.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    edited January 23

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    edited January 23
    Haley has a shot at it, but to be honest most of the recent polls show a clear (10 point or greater) distance between her and Trump, and I don’t think there’s been one showing her ahead, so I think it’s unlikely she’ll win. The reason I say unlikely rather than no chance is she could get a decent turnout of independents voting for her on the day.

    If Trump wins NH he is the nominee, barring any constitutional issues.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588
    edited January 23
    Nigelb said:

    Nikki hasn’t pulled out. I believe that Mike meant the nutty guy (Vivek? Forgotten him already!)

    The nutty guy is the presumptive nominee.
    I assume StillWaters meant the nutty guy as opposed to the batshit crazy guy.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437

    Nigelb said:

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
    She should fight all the way though - she has nothing to lose. Trump could still get disqualified, then she'd be the obvious, possibly only, pick.
    Yep. If I were her I’d be staying at least until SCOTUS rules in the ballot eligibility case.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited January 23

    Nigelb said:

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
    She should fight all the way though - she has nothing to lose. Trump could still get disqualified, then she'd be the obvious, possibly only, pick.
    Two questions spring to mind:

    1) What is the latest possible date to get on the ballot in the States; and

    2) What is the process for changing a Republican candidate if one suddenly can’t stand?

    1 must be well known, and 2 must have a precedent (I assume a previous candidate has died or something, rather than been sent to prison).

    There must be a non-zero chance of Trump being forced out too late for a new Republican candidate.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,904
    Hold on has Haley pulled out ?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042

    Nikki hasn’t pulled out. I believe that Mike meant the nutty guy (Vivek? Forgotten him already!)

    He’s now vigorously campaigning for Trump.

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1749626048898114030
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588
    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on has Haley pulled out ?

    No
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983

    Nigelb said:

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
    She should fight all the way though - she has nothing to lose. Trump could still get disqualified, then she'd be the obvious, possibly only, pick.
    How? That takes a lot of money and nobody is going to donate to a campaign that is 99% doomed.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Ramaswarmy and DeSantis have pulled out of the race for the Republican nomination, Haley and Trump are still in it.

    Rather weirdly, Biden isn’t on the Democratic primary ballot tonight, because of a row between the NH Dems and the White House, so now there’s a group of Dems encouraging voters to write-in Biden, another group encouraging a big turnout to vote for Dean Philips as a message to the party; and Nikki Haley, backed with a big money campaign, trying to get Dems to register as Republicans to vote against Trump. All rather confusing!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042
    New Hampshire has the quirk of the small community of Dixville Notch voting at midnight before everyone else and releasing the result. Nikki Haley got a clean sweep of 6 votes to Trump’s 0.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,923

    Nikki hasn’t pulled out. I believe that Mike meant the nutty guy (Vivek? Forgotten him already!)

    That's a relief - she's my pick for the GOP nomination in the prediction competition.
    Me too.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,263

    Nigelb said:

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
    She should fight all the way though - she has nothing to lose. Trump could still get disqualified, then she'd be the obvious, possibly only, pick.
    Yep. If I were her I’d be staying at least until SCOTUS rules in the ballot eligibility case.
    End of the West Wing comes to mind....
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255

    New Hampshire has the quirk of the small community of Dixville Notch voting at midnight before everyone else and releasing the result. Nikki Haley got a clean sweep of 6 votes to Trump’s 0.

    Stop the count!
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,969

    New Hampshire has the quirk of the small community of Dixville Notch voting at midnight before everyone else and releasing the result. Nikki Haley got a clean sweep of 6 votes to Trump’s 0.

    Stop the count!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588
    edited January 23

    New Hampshire has the quirk of the small community of Dixville Notch voting at midnight before everyone else and releasing the result. Nikki Haley got a clean sweep of 6 votes to Trump’s 0.

    Interesting how Dixville Notch switched sometime around 2006 from being a GOP stronghold to become staunchly Democrat.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,920
    If you’re one of the PBers who thinks Biden is gonna win this year then it might be worth finding better odds on the 2028 POTUS elex

    Coz if Biden wins in 24 there is no way Americans will give it to the Dems AGAIN in 28. And by then Trump will (surely) have disappeared. So I reckon a GOP victory is extremely likely (if Biden wins this year)

    Both Vivek and Haley would be very strong candidates in 2028?

    Only problem

    1. You’d be tying up your money for about 23,000 years

    2. I can’t actually find odds on the victor of POTUS 2028

    Other than that I heartily recommend this BETTING TIP
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    edited January 23
    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,263
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
    She should fight all the way though - she has nothing to lose. Trump could still get disqualified, then she'd be the obvious, possibly only, pick.
    How? That takes a lot of money and nobody is going to donate to a campaign that is 99% doomed.
    There's the matter of thinking longer term. Post Trump, one way or another, it looks like she is the leading contender.

    It doesn't take that much money to keep a campaign going, if you aren't going all out. Some might think it a worthwhile... bet.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,969
    TOPPING said:

    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.

    Not really. His MO is always to pick the doomsday scenario/ worst outcome for the free world.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    edited January 23

    TOPPING said:

    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.

    Not really. His MO is always to pick the doomsday scenario/ worst outcome for the free world.
    Well obviously I cba to go and look at the actual comments but you are wrong. Not that he doesn't wish for doomsday scenarios for the LOLs, but he pretty much immediately said that Trump would run again and this was met by much mirth and disbelief.

    But he is an active poster so that's quite enough from me about what he did or didn't do.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,936
    edited January 23

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
    She should fight all the way though - she has nothing to lose. Trump could still get disqualified, then she'd be the obvious, possibly only, pick.
    How? That takes a lot of money and nobody is going to donate to a campaign that is 99% doomed.
    There's the matter of thinking longer term. Post Trump, one way or another, it looks like she is the leading contender.

    It doesn't take that much money to keep a campaign going, if you aren't going all out. Some might think it a worthwhile... bet.
    Given that she’s the only non-Trump candidate left there are enough people who truly hate Trump (the Koch’s for 1) that finding the money to keep the campaign going won’t be a problem
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,055
    Nigelb said:

    Nikki hasn’t pulled out. I believe that Mike meant the nutty guy (Vivek? Forgotten him already!)

    The nutty guy is the presumptive nominee.
    No Vivek is the nutty guy, Trump is the demented guy and Biden is the senile guy.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    Nigelb said:

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
    She should fight all the way though - she has nothing to lose. Trump could still get disqualified, then she'd be the obvious, possibly only, pick.
    On Betfair she is 30 to win New Hampshire and 17.5 to get the Republican nomination so the assumption is that she will fight on.

    I'm on her at 34 to get the nomination so fingers crossed. I'm not going to lay her.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,651
    TOPPING said:

    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.

    Other country threads are available:
    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/21/finland/
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,055
    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    edited January 23
    TOPPING said:

    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.

    Dura just predicts maximum chaos as a matter of principle.
    Just happens to be the right call at the moment.

    And as it's the largest political betting market by a long way, it's not surprising it gets discussed a lot.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Depends on Red Sea doesn't it (going forward)?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    TOPPING said:

    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.

    I don't recall saying he'd win, though I may have. I did say at the time that, he'd say he'd won and act as if he won, regardless of the actual result. That remains a rock-solid certainty.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,263
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.

    Dura just predicts maximum chaos as a matter of principle.
    Just happens to be the right call at the moment.

    And as it's the largest political betting market by a long way, it's not surprising it gets discussed a lot.
    Given the polling and the fact that the MAGA bubble hasn't burst, Trump getting the Republican nomination was a very, very probable event.
  • Options

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Petrol prices are roughly where there were 11 or 12 years ago. And that is in cash terms, never mind inflation-adjusted. Yet some people would have us think that 1p or 2p on fuel duty would be the end of civilisation as we know it.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,936

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    On that with yesterdays poll and 35% tactical voting it has the Tories as 3rd party.

    Not really that plausible but it emphasizes how close the current Tory polling is to the point where their seat numbers start to collapse
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.

    Dura just predicts maximum chaos as a matter of principle.
    Has he ever been seen in the same room as Leon....?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Petrol prices are roughly where there were 11 or 12 years ago. And that is in cash terms, never mind inflation-adjusted. Yet some people would have us think that 1p or 2p on fuel duty would be the end of civilisation as we know it.
    And we're in the middle of the west European table currently
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,055

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Petrol prices are roughly where there were 11 or 12 years ago. And that is in cash terms, never mind inflation-adjusted. Yet some people would have us think that 1p or 2p on fuel duty would be the end of civilisation as we know it.
    Possibly.

    But that's a rapidly declining source of tax with increasing numbers of hybrid and electric vehicles.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,937

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Government support has been fantastic for pensioners (quelle surprise) with an automatic £500-600 payment. It's been terrible for those on low incomes (means tested £150).

    I often think back to the working mum of two behind the bar at my old local commenting that she was paying £600 a month heating her house last winter. And then I wonder how many people stopped heating their houses entirely.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Another interminable thread on likely next POTUS. God save us.

    Yes I know it is literally political betting, and about who might become leader of the free world, to boot, and thereby lead us to salvation/annihilation but it's hardly in the realms of which do we prefer fruit fancies or chelsea buns, now, is it.

    But anyway, I have been meaning to say for some time on these threads that almost as soon as he lost, or maybe from Jan 7th or thereabouts, our very own Dura, at the time to much shock/horror/disbelief and perhaps ridicule, said that Trump would run again, and that he would likely win.

    That is pretty astute political analysis if we're on the subject.

    Dura just predicts maximum chaos as a matter of principle.
    Has he ever been seen in the same room as Leon....?
    Horseshoe theory of PB.
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    Another prediction site that takes as its base the result of the 2019 general election, apparently, and then applies a national swing..... This was the Corbyn v Johnson election, where most people voted against one or the other.....
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    Using latest EMA gives:

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233
    edited January 23
    Barnesian said:

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    Using latest EMA gives:

    LDs with %seats>%votes; now that would be something!

    And Cons the converse.

    PR now! :)
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    Using latest EMA gives:

    LDs with %seats>%votes; now that would be something!
    Result of Focus.
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    HMRC have updated their ready reckoner regarding the fiscal impact of illustrative changes in taxes.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes-bulletin-january-2023

    So for example a 1p cut in the basic rate of income tax from April 24 will reduce the tax take by £6bn in 24/25 and £7.4bn in 25/26.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Trump: Which is incapable of solvin’ even the smallest problem. We are an institute in a powerful death penalty. We will put this on..
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1749638608577761385/mediaViewer
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    On the assumption that the vote distribution among constituencies is the same as last time.
    However, it never is.

    We can therefore say, with confidence, that the threshold for a Labour majority is probably somewhere between a Labour lead of 5 and 10 points.

    Probably.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588
    eek said:

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    On that with yesterdays poll and 35% tactical voting it has the Tories as 3rd party.

    Not really that plausible but it emphasizes how close the current Tory polling is to the point where their seat numbers start to collapse
    I will enjoy listening to the post-election Tory rump expounding on the iniquities of FPTP, and how they really feel the country would be much better off with PR.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Leon said:

    If you’re one of the PBers who thinks Biden is gonna win this year then it might be worth finding better odds on the 2028 POTUS elex

    Coz if Biden wins in 24 there is no way Americans will give it to the Dems AGAIN in 28. And by then Trump will (surely) have disappeared. So I reckon a GOP victory is extremely likely (if Biden wins this year)

    Both Vivek and Haley would be very strong candidates in 2028?

    Only problem

    1. You’d be tying up your money for about 23,000 years

    2. I can’t actually find odds on the victor of POTUS 2028

    Other than that I heartily recommend this BETTING TIP

    DeSantis just burned whatever slim 2028 chances he had.
    https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1749600095413145890
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    On topic, quite a big boo-boo to say that Haley has withdrawn as well as deSantis. I assume her name has been inadvertently included instead of either Christie or Ramaswamy, both of whom did withdraw around the Iowa caucuses.

    That said, I've argued for months that Trump has the nomination sown up, barring disqualifying health or legal problems, and that remains the case now. A decent second for Haley keeps her in the race for now. Ironically, the one that could knock her out is her home state, where she really needs a win to retain credibility.
  • Options

    eek said:

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    On that with yesterdays poll and 35% tactical voting it has the Tories as 3rd party.

    Not really that plausible but it emphasizes how close the current Tory polling is to the point where their seat numbers start to collapse
    I will enjoy listening to the post-election Tory rump expounding on the iniquities of FPTP, and how they really feel the country would be much better off with PR.
    And they would be right and welcomed to the debate. Labour on the other hand with 400 seats would say no...
  • Options

    First, like Biden in November!

    In the popular vote, or the electoral vote?
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    edited January 23
    This election is going to play very differently regionally. I expect the Tories to be all but wiped out in London, metropolitan areas and to have a shocker in the South West and Wales. Conversely, I think their vote will be stickier than expected in the midlands and in some northern county/small towns.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588

    First, like Biden in November!

    In the popular vote, or the electoral vote?
    Both, I suspect. (And hope)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,963
    If Haley is going to stop Trump, NH tonight is probably her best bet to gain momentum. It is a state which voted for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020 and lots of Independents will vote in it.

    If Trump wins NH and Iowa though then he will be the first candidate of a major party who was not an incumbent President to win most delegates in both early states since John Kerry in 2004 and Kerry of course won that nomination relatively easily.

    Otherwise Haley will have to hope the SC rules Trump can be blocked from ballots or he is convicted of a criminal offence and jailed by the convention
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,121
    Extraordinarily regressive step by Ireland in forcing retailers to accept dead tree and metal currency. A huge step backwards. Insanity. I hope this woke nonsense doesn't catch on here.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/supermarkets-convenience-stores-and-pharmacies-will-have-to-accept-cash-new-laws-to-see-oral-contraception-sold-over-counter/a212277028.html
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,963

    eek said:

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    On that with yesterdays poll and 35% tactical voting it has the Tories as 3rd party.

    Not really that plausible but it emphasizes how close the current Tory polling is to the point where their seat numbers start to collapse
    I will enjoy listening to the post-election Tory rump expounding on the iniquities of FPTP, and how they really feel the country would be much better off with PR.
    PR would eventually lead to Reform becoming part of the government, likely in a coalition with the Tories.

    FPTP still ensures the Tories can govern alone, whereas under PR they would have to govern with Reform or the LDs again (or maybe even a German style grand coalition with Labour)
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,159

    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!

    The last time a government tried to support the film industry with tax reliefs it led to a lot of mis-sold investments to rich investors trying to avoid large tax bills. The Ingenious fund, for instance, which turned out to be anything but.

    It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wait. Nikki Haley has pulled out? News to me.

    Me too.

    She might as well have done, if you'd listened to the BBC's New Hampshire report this morning, though.
    The entire story was about Trump's inevitability, and he was the only candidate heard from.
    She should fight all the way though - she has nothing to lose. Trump could still get disqualified, then she'd be the obvious, possibly only, pick.
    Two questions spring to mind:

    1) What is the latest possible date to get on the ballot in the States; and

    2) What is the process for changing a Republican candidate if one suddenly can’t stand?

    1 must be well known, and 2 must have a precedent (I assume a previous candidate has died or something, rather than been sent to prison).

    There must be a non-zero chance of Trump being forced out too late for a new Republican candidate.
    It's crucial to remember that there is no 'American' election system. Most aspects are regulated and defined by the states, outside of constitutionally-protected provisions. The deadlines for ballot access are one thing that varies from state-to-state, for the general election as well as for primaries, as is what happens if a candidate withdraws, is barred as ineligible, or dies after being nominated. Plus, of course, the presidential election is particularly complex as technically, voters aren't electing the president themselves but delegates to the Electoral College. Again, rules and laws vary.

    As a general rule though, the deadline for general election access tends to be in September - it's quite a narrow window between conventions and the start of early voting so practical considerations mean it more-or-less has to be between mid-August and mid-Sept.

    Deadlines for primary access have already passed in many states. Likewise, the deadlines to flip the party a candidate is running for (or as an independent) are also passing, meaning that losers in primaries don't get a second bite at the cherry.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    On that with yesterdays poll and 35% tactical voting it has the Tories as 3rd party.

    Not really that plausible but it emphasizes how close the current Tory polling is to the point where their seat numbers start to collapse
    I will enjoy listening to the post-election Tory rump expounding on the iniquities of FPTP, and how they really feel the country would be much better off with PR.
    PR would eventually lead to Reform becoming part of the government, likely in a coalition with the Tories.

    FPTP still ensures the Tories can govern alone, whereas under PR they would have to govern with Reform or the LDs again (or maybe even a German style grand coalition with Labour)
    Even you have run out of arguments against, which is a most encouraging sign.
  • Options

    This election is going to play very differently regionally. I expect the Tories to be all but wiped out in London, metropolitan areas and to have a shocker in the South West and Wales. Conversely, I think their vote will be stickier than expected in the midlands and in some northern county/small towns.

    I can't speak for the Midlands. For northern England they are going to get absolutely destroyed. Whilst there will remain pockets of shire Tories, all of the places where blue collar Boris Brexit Toryism exploded in 2019 will be lost. All. Maybe keep a random couple if they are lucky and the vote splits right to allow their collapse to still leave them on top.

    Why? Because, to get all northern again for a minute, they've done fuck all round here. Too. many morons unexpectedly elected, fed the spin lines by head office which they parrot about all the things they are delivering. Whilst delivering nothing. Voters are used to nothing, but they're not used to being lied to about it.

    Worse still is the parochial bigotry that was always close to the surface in many towns now whipped to a frenzy. They voted Brexit and then Boris to get the foreigners out. Gone. Its their fault we can't see a doctor, why the schools are crap, why there's no jobs and no money. And even in 2019 the lure of the further right was strong - the Brexit Party saved Labour in a stack of seats. I expect the number of FUKkers to be even higher this time, and vs 2019 they will mostly be transfers from Tory 2019 totals.

    It is going to be a political bloodbath. And well deserved - will be fun to see what Lord Ben I'll Sue Houchen will do with his local support all gone and the wolves closing in on the scent of malfeasance...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,588
    Cyclefree said:

    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!

    The last time a government tried to support the film industry with tax reliefs it led to a lot of mis-sold investments to rich investors trying to avoid large tax bills. The Ingenious fund, for instance, which turned out to be anything but.

    It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
    Speaking of which, Teesside Freeport feels like it needs an ITV drama special.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,920
    Is this really true?

    "To live off Portobello Rd, you'd pay £860 a week for a 3-bed on average.

    But immigrants in social housing pay ONLY £151 a week for a 3-bed on average.

    Many are also allowed to RENT OUT rooms, profiteering on taxpayer-funded housing.

    Not fair. Must change."

    Going viral on TwiX

    Tweeter seems to be a new kind of immigration-skeptical leftwinger (like that new party in Germany?), but I am not sure


    https://x.com/JACKGUYANDERTON/status/1749480796568871121?s=20

    in the end this was bound to happen - or it will happen. Mass immigration raises rents and house prices and that expecially impacts the young, who nonetheless vote Labour. The cognitive dissonance cannot continue forever

  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,936
    edited January 23

    This election is going to play very differently regionally. I expect the Tories to be all but wiped out in London, metropolitan areas and to have a shocker in the South West and Wales. Conversely, I think their vote will be stickier than expected in the midlands and in some northern county/small towns.

    I can't speak for the Midlands. For northern England they are going to get absolutely destroyed. Whilst there will remain pockets of shire Tories, all of the places where blue collar Boris Brexit Toryism exploded in 2019 will be lost. All. Maybe keep a random couple if they are lucky and the vote splits right to allow their collapse to still leave them on top.

    Why? Because, to get all northern again for a minute, they've done fuck all round here. Too. many morons unexpectedly elected, fed the spin lines by head office which they parrot about all the things they are delivering. Whilst delivering nothing. Voters are used to nothing, but they're not used to being lied to about it.

    Worse still is the parochial bigotry that was always close to the surface in many towns now whipped to a frenzy. They voted Brexit and then Boris to get the foreigners out. Gone. Its their fault we can't see a doctor, why the schools are crap, why there's no jobs and no money. And even in 2019 the lure of the further right was strong - the Brexit Party saved Labour in a stack of seats. I expect the number of FUKkers to be even higher this time, and vs 2019 they will mostly be transfers from Tory 2019 totals.

    It is going to be a political bloodbath. And well deserved - will be fun to see what Lord Ben I'll Sue Houchen will do with his local support all gone and the wolves closing in on the scent of malfeasance...
    Round here a comment I’ve heard often is where have all these coloured people come from.

    And it’s not usually as a racist comment we’ve always had a few people of Asian / African descent but there are noticeably more than used to be the case

    Granted a lot of the people complaining won’t actually vote but it does show how many people think Bozo and co have utterly failed to deliver what they promised
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Cyclefree said:

    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!

    The last time a government tried to support the film industry with tax reliefs it led to a lot of mis-sold investments to rich investors trying to avoid large tax bills. The Ingenious fund, for instance, which turned out to be anything but.

    It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
    Speaking of which, Teesside Freeport feels like it needs an ITV drama special.
    Yes. But not for 10 years or so. There is too little information known at the moment and too much partisan reporting, for example on the value of contaminated ex-industrial land.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Cyclefree said:

    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!

    The last time a government tried to support the film industry with tax reliefs it led to a lot of mis-sold investments to rich investors trying to avoid large tax bills. The Ingenious fund, for instance, which turned out to be anything but.

    It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
    Too many ‘creative’ industries try and play governments off against each other for financial support, and “Hollywood Accounting” even has its own Wiki page https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_accounting

    Meanwhile, those at the top of the industry make out like bandits and hardly pay any taxes.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    edited January 23
    Cyclefree said:

    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!

    The last time a government tried to support the film industry with tax reliefs it led to a lot of mis-sold investments to rich investors trying to avoid large tax bills. The Ingenious fund, for instance, which turned out to be anything but.

    It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
    It was a thing some years ago and you were either of the view that if people were offering some scheme that would lower your tax bill then it was likely too good to be true; or you were of the view that you'd try anything to reduce your tax liability.

    It ended very not well for plenty of the latter group.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    edited January 23
    Cyclefree said:

    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!

    The last time a government tried to support the film industry with tax reliefs it led to a lot of mis-sold investments to rich investors trying to avoid large tax bills. The Ingenious fund, for instance, which turned out to be anything but.

    It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
    The Koreans have had notable success with supporting their film industry, including significant financial aid.
    Are they just better at it ?

    Their tax enforcement is quite strict.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Petrol prices are roughly where there were 11 or 12 years ago. And that is in cash terms, never mind inflation-adjusted. Yet some people would have us think that 1p or 2p on fuel duty would be the end of civilisation as we know it.
    Possibly.

    But that's a rapidly declining source of tax with increasing numbers of hybrid and electric vehicles.
    It’s going to dwindle to nothing over time, so might as well start reducing it with any fiscal headroom. Diesel prices in particular, are one of the largest single factors in inflation in goods.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,055
    kyf_100 said:

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Government support has been fantastic for pensioners (quelle surprise) with an automatic £500-600 payment. It's been terrible for those on low incomes (means tested £150).

    I often think back to the working mum of two behind the bar at my old local commenting that she was paying £600 a month heating her house last winter. And then I wonder how many people stopped heating their houses entirely.
    How much were they paying the winter before that ?

    And if they stopped heating their houses entirely how were they paying £600 per month ?

    Not to mention the £400 the government gave everyone toward energy bills last winter or the extra £650 those on low incomes received in 2022 or the £150 council tax rebate. **

    And who are all these people who have been getting £900 this last year:

    Eight million people on means-tested benefits will receive a final instalment of cost-of-living payments in February.

    Those on benefits such as universal credit will be paid directly, without the need to make a claim, between 6 February and 22 February.

    It is the last of three instalments that total £900.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61592496

    ** How many of us are aware of all these extra benefits which have been paid ? Even if you receive them they're often quickly forgotten - I'd forgotten about the council tax rebate of 2022.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,937
    Leon said:

    Is this really true?

    "To live off Portobello Rd, you'd pay £860 a week for a 3-bed on average.

    But immigrants in social housing pay ONLY £151 a week for a 3-bed on average.

    Many are also allowed to RENT OUT rooms, profiteering on taxpayer-funded housing.

    Not fair. Must change."

    Going viral on TwiX

    Tweeter seems to be a new kind of immigration-skeptical leftwinger (like that new party in Germany?), but I am not sure


    https://x.com/JACKGUYANDERTON/status/1749480796568871121?s=20

    in the end this was bound to happen - or it will happen. Mass immigration raises rents and house prices and that expecially impacts the young, who nonetheless vote Labour. The cognitive dissonance cannot continue forever

    So who do you vote for if you want lower rents and house prices? The Conservatives have overseen 13 years of mass immigration, restricted housing supply and stupid schemes to prop up house prices like "help to buy" and the stamp duty holiday. Plus Osborne's ridiculous wheeze to end mortgage interest payments being a deductible expense for landlords, which, unsurprisingly, led to a constriction of supply as well as a surge in rents as landlords passed the extra cost on to tenants.

    Voting Conservative instead of Labour isn't going to materially improve the fortunes of the nation's young.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    On that with yesterdays poll and 35% tactical voting it has the Tories as 3rd party.

    Not really that plausible but it emphasizes how close the current Tory polling is to the point where their seat numbers start to collapse
    I will enjoy listening to the post-election Tory rump expounding on the iniquities of FPTP, and how they really feel the country would be much better off with PR.
    PR would eventually lead to Reform becoming part of the government, likely in a coalition with the Tories.

    FPTP still ensures the Tories can govern alone, whereas under PR they would have to govern with Reform or the LDs again (or maybe even a German style grand coalition with Labour)
    The Brexit Party came perilously close to a great many MPs in 2019 under FPTP. They showed their potential in the Euro-elections and only the combination of Johnson's charisma with / lying to Brexiteers and his mis-selling his deal saved the Tories from that. Had Farage out-shone May or Hunt or whoever might have led the Tories after June in an alternative scenario, the FPTP dynamics of 'save Brexit' / 'Keep Corbyn Out' might well have consolidated the right-of-centre to him instead. Far from guaranteed but also far from impossible.
  • Options
    Small but astonishing moment in this mornng's evidence at the PO Inquiry.

    The witness is another 'Investigator' and it emerged that when he submitted his cv for the job, he put forward his wife's qualifications as his own!

    The PO certainly found some pond life to carry out its dirty work.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    edited January 23
    Leon said:

    If you’re one of the PBers who thinks Biden is gonna win this year then it might be worth finding better odds on the 2028 POTUS elex

    Coz if Biden wins in 24 there is no way Americans will give it to the Dems AGAIN in 28. And by then Trump will (surely) have disappeared. So I reckon a GOP victory is extremely likely (if Biden wins this year)

    Both Vivek and Haley would be very strong candidates in 2028?

    Only problem

    1. You’d be tying up your money for about 23,000 years

    2. I can’t actually find odds on the victor of POTUS 2028

    Other than that I heartily recommend this BETTING TIP

    I would be cautious about offering or accepting odds for the 2028 POTUS election. If Trump wins in 2024 (which he will) we have absolutely no idea in what sort of political conditions any future election will be fought WRT observance of the law, use of intimidation, abuse of democratic processes etc.

    I think most of us would be unable to say for certain that intimidation is not already a factor in what leading Republicans feel they can say, do or support.

    Last time we could believe he would campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Not this time.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,920
    edited January 23
    eek said:

    This election is going to play very differently regionally. I expect the Tories to be all but wiped out in London, metropolitan areas and to have a shocker in the South West and Wales. Conversely, I think their vote will be stickier than expected in the midlands and in some northern county/small towns.

    I can't speak for the Midlands. For northern England they are going to get absolutely destroyed. Whilst there will remain pockets of shire Tories, all of the places where blue collar Boris Brexit Toryism exploded in 2019 will be lost. All. Maybe keep a random couple if they are lucky and the vote splits right to allow their collapse to still leave them on top.

    Why? Because, to get all northern again for a minute, they've done fuck all round here. Too. many morons unexpectedly elected, fed the spin lines by head office which they parrot about all the things they are delivering. Whilst delivering nothing. Voters are used to nothing, but they're not used to being lied to about it.

    Worse still is the parochial bigotry that was always close to the surface in many towns now whipped to a frenzy. They voted Brexit and then Boris to get the foreigners out. Gone. Its their fault we can't see a doctor, why the schools are crap, why there's no jobs and no money. And even in 2019 the lure of the further right was strong - the Brexit Party saved Labour in a stack of seats. I expect the number of FUKkers to be even higher this time, and vs 2019 they will mostly be transfers from Tory 2019 totals.

    It is going to be a political bloodbath. And well deserved - will be fun to see what Lord Ben I'll Sue Houchen will do with his local support all gone and the wolves closing in on the scent of malfeasance...
    Round here a comment I’ve heard often is where have all these coloured people come from.

    And it’s not usually as a racist comment we’ve always had a few people of Asian / African descent but there are noticeably more than used to be the case

    Granted a lot of the people complaining won’t actually vote but it does show how many people think Bozo and co have utterly failed to deliver what they promised
    It's a lot worse than "not delivering", they have done the opposite of delivering. We have had 1.3 million migrants in two years, which is: simply off the dial, unprecedented in our history, changing the country visibly and briskly, and is a larger rate per capita than any annual immigration into the "land of immigrants" - the USA

    We are importing more people than America in the era of Ellis Island. Take a minute and grasp that

    It is screamingly insane, it is a kind of Ponzi scheme, and all of this is happening as everyone admits the NHS can't cope, our sewage system can't cope, our infrastructure is fucked, and house-ownership is becoming a dream for anyone under 50

    The Tories are going to be obliterated, and deservedly, to the extent they may never recover

    However, Starmer will then have to tackle this issue. It cannot be ignored. What will he do?



  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,097
    Another EV Startup looking like it is about to crash and burn. Hot on the heels of Volta trucks which went last autumn.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/british-ev-startup-arrival-inches-closer-to-insolvency-sky-news/ar-BB1h5jpW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=137b5bf16e63432e8660c552d74366b6&ei=18
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,963
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    New (?) election toy to play with peeps!!! :smile:



    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    16m
    Playing with
    @benwansell ’s General Election Predictor: Lab needs to be 8.5pts ahead in share of vote for majority

    https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24_Simulator_New_Boundaries/

    On that with yesterdays poll and 35% tactical voting it has the Tories as 3rd party.

    Not really that plausible but it emphasizes how close the current Tory polling is to the point where their seat numbers start to collapse
    I will enjoy listening to the post-election Tory rump expounding on the iniquities of FPTP, and how they really feel the country would be much better off with PR.
    PR would eventually lead to Reform becoming part of the government, likely in a coalition with the Tories.

    FPTP still ensures the Tories can govern alone, whereas under PR they would have to govern with Reform or the LDs again (or maybe even a German style grand coalition with Labour)
    Even you have run out of arguments against, which is a most encouraging sign.
    I voted for AV in 2011, I have never been a FPTP diehard
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,920
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Is this really true?

    "To live off Portobello Rd, you'd pay £860 a week for a 3-bed on average.

    But immigrants in social housing pay ONLY £151 a week for a 3-bed on average.

    Many are also allowed to RENT OUT rooms, profiteering on taxpayer-funded housing.

    Not fair. Must change."

    Going viral on TwiX

    Tweeter seems to be a new kind of immigration-skeptical leftwinger (like that new party in Germany?), but I am not sure


    https://x.com/JACKGUYANDERTON/status/1749480796568871121?s=20

    in the end this was bound to happen - or it will happen. Mass immigration raises rents and house prices and that expecially impacts the young, who nonetheless vote Labour. The cognitive dissonance cannot continue forever

    So who do you vote for if you want lower rents and house prices? The Conservatives have overseen 13 years of mass immigration, restricted housing supply and stupid schemes to prop up house prices like "help to buy" and the stamp duty holiday. Plus Osborne's ridiculous wheeze to end mortgage interest payments being a deductible expense for landlords, which, unsurprisingly, led to a constriction of supply as well as a surge in rents as landlords passed the extra cost on to tenants.

    Voting Conservative instead of Labour isn't going to materially improve the fortunes of the nation's young.
    I entirely agree - which is why the Tories are doubly fucked

    In the end a party will address this problem. It would be nice if it was one of the main democratic parties rather than a British version of AfD
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,920
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re one of the PBers who thinks Biden is gonna win this year then it might be worth finding better odds on the 2028 POTUS elex

    Coz if Biden wins in 24 there is no way Americans will give it to the Dems AGAIN in 28. And by then Trump will (surely) have disappeared. So I reckon a GOP victory is extremely likely (if Biden wins this year)

    Both Vivek and Haley would be very strong candidates in 2028?

    Only problem

    1. You’d be tying up your money for about 23,000 years

    2. I can’t actually find odds on the victor of POTUS 2028

    Other than that I heartily recommend this BETTING TIP

    I would be cautious about offering or accepting odds for the 2028 POTUS election. If Trump wins in 2024 (which he will) we have absolutely no idea in what sort of political conditions any future election will be fought WRT observance of the law, use of intimidation, abuse of democratic processes etc.

    I think most of us would be unable to say for certain that intimidation is not already a factor in what leading Republicans feel they can say, do or support.

    Last time we could believe he would campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Not this time.
    My BETTING ADVICE was restricted to those convinced Biden will win in 24, which renders your point somewhat otiose
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,130
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    This election is going to play very differently regionally. I expect the Tories to be all but wiped out in London, metropolitan areas and to have a shocker in the South West and Wales. Conversely, I think their vote will be stickier than expected in the midlands and in some northern county/small towns.

    I can't speak for the Midlands. For northern England they are going to get absolutely destroyed. Whilst there will remain pockets of shire Tories, all of the places where blue collar Boris Brexit Toryism exploded in 2019 will be lost. All. Maybe keep a random couple if they are lucky and the vote splits right to allow their collapse to still leave them on top.

    Why? Because, to get all northern again for a minute, they've done fuck all round here. Too. many morons unexpectedly elected, fed the spin lines by head office which they parrot about all the things they are delivering. Whilst delivering nothing. Voters are used to nothing, but they're not used to being lied to about it.

    Worse still is the parochial bigotry that was always close to the surface in many towns now whipped to a frenzy. They voted Brexit and then Boris to get the foreigners out. Gone. Its their fault we can't see a doctor, why the schools are crap, why there's no jobs and no money. And even in 2019 the lure of the further right was strong - the Brexit Party saved Labour in a stack of seats. I expect the number of FUKkers to be even higher this time, and vs 2019 they will mostly be transfers from Tory 2019 totals.

    It is going to be a political bloodbath. And well deserved - will be fun to see what Lord Ben I'll Sue Houchen will do with his local support all gone and the wolves closing in on the scent of malfeasance...
    Round here a comment I’ve heard often is where have all these coloured people come from.

    And it’s not usually as a racist comment we’ve always had a few people of Asian / African descent but there are noticeably more than used to be the case

    Granted a lot of the people complaining won’t actually vote but it does show how many people think Bozo and co have utterly failed to deliver what they promised
    It's a lot worse than "not delivering", they have done the opposite of delivering. We have had 1.3 million migrants in two years, which is: simply off the dial, unprecedented in our history, changing the country visibly and briskly, and is a larger rate per capita than any annual immigration into the "land of immigrants" - the USA

    We are importing more people than America in the era of Ellis Island. Take a minute and grasp that

    It is screamingly insane, it is a kind of Ponzi scheme, and all of this is happening as everyone admits the NHS can't cope, our sewage system can't cope, our infrastructure is fucked, and house-ownership is becoming a dream for anyone under 50

    The Tories are going to be obliterated, and deservedly, to the extent they may never recover

    However, Starmer will then have to tackle this issue. It cannot be ignored. What will he do?



    How much off that 1.3 million is Ukraine/Hong Kong and adjustments of student numbers after covid?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,584
    Travel question please (especially @leon):

    Planning a trip to Las Vegas and Death Valley. Suggestions please?

    Will do trip to Grand Canyon while in LV as well. I want to go by helicopter, but my wife won't get in one. I also I understand they only go to the West Rim, which doesn't seem the best option. So what do we do? I definitely want the helicopter trip somewhere in it, which I could do at the South Rim, but the trip to there seems a long way by road.

    I'm planning this around a Santana concert.

    Suggestions, suggestions, suggestions please?
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,937

    kyf_100 said:

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Government support has been fantastic for pensioners (quelle surprise) with an automatic £500-600 payment. It's been terrible for those on low incomes (means tested £150).

    I often think back to the working mum of two behind the bar at my old local commenting that she was paying £600 a month heating her house last winter. And then I wonder how many people stopped heating their houses entirely.
    How much were they paying the winter before that ?

    And if they stopped heating their houses entirely how were they paying £600 per month ?

    Not to mention the £400 the government gave everyone toward energy bills last winter or the extra £650 those on low incomes received in 2022 or the £150 council tax rebate. **

    And who are all these people who have been getting £900 this last year:

    Eight million people on means-tested benefits will receive a final instalment of cost-of-living payments in February.

    Those on benefits such as universal credit will be paid directly, without the need to make a claim, between 6 February and 22 February.

    It is the last of three instalments that total £900.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61592496

    ** How many of us are aware of all these extra benefits which have been paid ? Even if you receive them they're often quickly forgotten - I'd forgotten about the council tax rebate of 2022.
    Read my comment. I didn't say *they* stopped heating their house. I'm just asking how many people on low incomes did. My guess is quite a lot.

    I wasn't talking about people on benefits. Plenty of people on low incomes, believe it or not, not claiming benefits.

    I have no idea how much they were paying the winter before that, because it's a single anecdote from a worker in a pub I used to drink in last winter. I'm not going back to question them on it. Quite possibly the figure was their combined gas + electricity bill. I didn't ask. Or quite possibly they lived in a house with electricity only, and no gas. I only know that is how much they were paying a month.

    However I can tell you that my boiler costs one pound seventy something an hour to run, so you'd only need to be running it 8 hours a day to spend four hundred quid a month on gas central heating. Pretty possible for a poorly insulated three bedroom home in the depths of winter. A house with electric heating would be way over that.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855

    Small but astonishing moment in this mornng's evidence at the PO Inquiry.

    The witness is another 'Investigator' and it emerged that when he submitted his cv for the job, he put forward his wife's qualifications as his own!

    The PO certainly found some pond life to carry out its dirty work.

    So the PO didn’t even vet the CVs of people they hired as investigators?

    That explains a lot.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,130
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Government support has been fantastic for pensioners (quelle surprise) with an automatic £500-600 payment. It's been terrible for those on low incomes (means tested £150).

    I often think back to the working mum of two behind the bar at my old local commenting that she was paying £600 a month heating her house last winter. And then I wonder how many people stopped heating their houses entirely.
    How much were they paying the winter before that ?

    And if they stopped heating their houses entirely how were they paying £600 per month ?

    Not to mention the £400 the government gave everyone toward energy bills last winter or the extra £650 those on low incomes received in 2022 or the £150 council tax rebate. **

    And who are all these people who have been getting £900 this last year:

    Eight million people on means-tested benefits will receive a final instalment of cost-of-living payments in February.

    Those on benefits such as universal credit will be paid directly, without the need to make a claim, between 6 February and 22 February.

    It is the last of three instalments that total £900.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61592496

    ** How many of us are aware of all these extra benefits which have been paid ? Even if you receive them they're often quickly forgotten - I'd forgotten about the council tax rebate of 2022.
    Read my comment. I didn't say *they* stopped heating their house. I'm just asking how many people on low incomes did. My guess is quite a lot.

    I wasn't talking about people on benefits. Plenty of people on low incomes, believe it or not, not claiming benefits.

    I have no idea how much they were paying the winter before that, because it's a single anecdote from a worker in a pub I used to drink in last winter. I'm not going back to question them on it. Quite possibly the figure was their combined gas + electricity bill. I didn't ask. Or quite possibly they lived in a house with electricity only, and no gas. I only know that is how much they were paying a month.

    However I can tell you that my boiler costs one pound seventy something an hour to run, so you'd only need to be running it 8 hours a day to spend four hundred quid a month on gas central heating. Pretty possible for a poorly insulated three bedroom home in the depths of winter. A house with electric heating would be way over that.
    Anecdotally some people have reduced their heating or not used it. I assist with the Lions collecting at Christmas and go to a lot of doors. In the past many, many houses would be very warm, occupants in shorts etc. This year a lot of places were significantly colder, and people were wearing many layers. Its definitely a thing.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,920

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    This election is going to play very differently regionally. I expect the Tories to be all but wiped out in London, metropolitan areas and to have a shocker in the South West and Wales. Conversely, I think their vote will be stickier than expected in the midlands and in some northern county/small towns.

    I can't speak for the Midlands. For northern England they are going to get absolutely destroyed. Whilst there will remain pockets of shire Tories, all of the places where blue collar Boris Brexit Toryism exploded in 2019 will be lost. All. Maybe keep a random couple if they are lucky and the vote splits right to allow their collapse to still leave them on top.

    Why? Because, to get all northern again for a minute, they've done fuck all round here. Too. many morons unexpectedly elected, fed the spin lines by head office which they parrot about all the things they are delivering. Whilst delivering nothing. Voters are used to nothing, but they're not used to being lied to about it.

    Worse still is the parochial bigotry that was always close to the surface in many towns now whipped to a frenzy. They voted Brexit and then Boris to get the foreigners out. Gone. Its their fault we can't see a doctor, why the schools are crap, why there's no jobs and no money. And even in 2019 the lure of the further right was strong - the Brexit Party saved Labour in a stack of seats. I expect the number of FUKkers to be even higher this time, and vs 2019 they will mostly be transfers from Tory 2019 totals.

    It is going to be a political bloodbath. And well deserved - will be fun to see what Lord Ben I'll Sue Houchen will do with his local support all gone and the wolves closing in on the scent of malfeasance...
    Round here a comment I’ve heard often is where have all these coloured people come from.

    And it’s not usually as a racist comment we’ve always had a few people of Asian / African descent but there are noticeably more than used to be the case

    Granted a lot of the people complaining won’t actually vote but it does show how many people think Bozo and co have utterly failed to deliver what they promised
    It's a lot worse than "not delivering", they have done the opposite of delivering. We have had 1.3 million migrants in two years, which is: simply off the dial, unprecedented in our history, changing the country visibly and briskly, and is a larger rate per capita than any annual immigration into the "land of immigrants" - the USA

    We are importing more people than America in the era of Ellis Island. Take a minute and grasp that

    It is screamingly insane, it is a kind of Ponzi scheme, and all of this is happening as everyone admits the NHS can't cope, our sewage system can't cope, our infrastructure is fucked, and house-ownership is becoming a dream for anyone under 50

    The Tories are going to be obliterated, and deservedly, to the extent they may never recover

    However, Starmer will then have to tackle this issue. It cannot be ignored. What will he do?



    How much off that 1.3 million is Ukraine/Hong Kong and adjustments of student numbers after covid?
    I believe about 100-150,000 is Ukraine/HK

    Students dunno, but an awful lot of them have brought dependants (much more than usual), and a much higher propertion are now converting their student visas to work visas, so they stay


    Now it's great that people want to come here, it's good our unis are attractive, I am sure 98% of these people are fantastic brain surgeons to be, but the simple fact is the UK cannot cope with 700,000 net immigrants a year. Remember when Cameron vowed to get it down to tens of thousands? Now it is SEVEN HUNDRED THOUSAND

    To grasp this nettle will take courage. Does Starmer possess it? I doubt it, and it's not in Labour's nature to clamp down on migration
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,317
    Cyclefree said:

    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!

    The last time a government tried to support the film industry with tax reliefs it led to a lot of mis-sold investments to rich investors trying to avoid large tax bills. The Ingenious fund, for instance, which turned out to be anything but.

    It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
    A lot of films from the 'golden age' of British cinema were 'quota quickies' that were made because cinemas had to show a quota of British films. It's not ideal but sometimes Governments' fingers on the scales are necessary for cultural reasons.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    Cyclefree said:

    British Film and High-End TV - Culture, Media and Sport Committee

    How resilient is the UK's film and TV industry?

    The Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into British Film and High-End TV aims to answer just that, examining the challenges facing the industry and investigate what needs to be done to enhance the UK as a global destination for production.

    In this session, the Committee will hear from Gurinder Chadha, the acclaimed writer, director and producer of films including Bend It Like Beckham, Bride and Prejudice and Blinded by the Lights. MPs may examine what has changed for filmmakers in the UK over the past two decades and whether films have the same cultural impact as they had in the past.

    Members could also explore the importance of theatrical releases in the age of streaming and whether diversity has improved within the industry over past decades. They may also discuss the filmmaker’s attitudes towards AI, including concerns about films being used to train AI models.

    In the second panel, MPs will hear evidence from the CEOs of leading production, distribution and exhibition trade bodies. Members may ask about key issues facing their respective sectors, the ecosystem of British film and the impact of the SAG-AFTRA strikes on the UK industry.

    Questions could also be asked about the best ways to support domestic films, including tax reliefs, levies and quotas, and how the industry plans to tackle skills shortages and recruitment issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzBl4zF5jo

    More livestreaming fun!

    The last time a government tried to support the film industry with tax reliefs it led to a lot of mis-sold investments to rich investors trying to avoid large tax bills. The Ingenious fund, for instance, which turned out to be anything but.

    It might be an idea not to repeat this scandal. We have plenty of others to be getting on with.
    Tbh I never really understood that tax scandal.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    To me moments like this are emblematic of why Democrats lose:

    https://twitter.com/potus/status/1749494901698375854

    Here is the President of the United States making a statement that is putting onus on voters to do stuff that he can already do. He could, in an Executive Order, say that all federal sites in the US will be usable for legal abortions. He could go to Congress and demand they pass a Roe v Wade bill, and when it gets stalled he could stand on the bully pulpit every day and scream at the top of his lungs that the GOP are refusing to pass it. He could have done these things before SCOTUS ripped it to shreds. Obama, who campaigned on codifying Roe in to law, could have done it when he had a super majority in Congress. And they didn't.

    Whereas the GOP - as evil as their stated policy aims are - just do them. Want Roe overturned - we'll give you judges who do that. Want tax cuts for the rich? Done. Want a muslim ban - we'll do it, and when the courts tell us it's illegal we'll do it again, and we'll keep trying until we get tired or the courts give up. And we don't get tired. The GOP fight for their policy preferences.

    This is one of the reasons the much bemoaned "faith in democracy" is falling. The right wing use election wins as a mandate to act, the centre / centre-left use it as a way to push the blame for not doing things on to voters (if only you'd given us a bigger mandate!). At least when an authoritarian refuses to bend to public will the public can feel moral when they riot, in a "democratic" system so many goddamn libs and bad faith right wingers argue "that's what the ballot box is for" (despite the fact that when right wingers lose at the ballot box they scream conspiracy and start plotting coups).
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233
    eek said:

    This election is going to play very differently regionally. I expect the Tories to be all but wiped out in London, metropolitan areas and to have a shocker in the South West and Wales. Conversely, I think their vote will be stickier than expected in the midlands and in some northern county/small towns.

    I can't speak for the Midlands. For northern England they are going to get absolutely destroyed. Whilst there will remain pockets of shire Tories, all of the places where blue collar Boris Brexit Toryism exploded in 2019 will be lost. All. Maybe keep a random couple if they are lucky and the vote splits right to allow their collapse to still leave them on top.

    Why? Because, to get all northern again for a minute, they've done fuck all round here. Too. many morons unexpectedly elected, fed the spin lines by head office which they parrot about all the things they are delivering. Whilst delivering nothing. Voters are used to nothing, but they're not used to being lied to about it.

    Worse still is the parochial bigotry that was always close to the surface in many towns now whipped to a frenzy. They voted Brexit and then Boris to get the foreigners out. Gone. Its their fault we can't see a doctor, why the schools are crap, why there's no jobs and no money. And even in 2019 the lure of the further right was strong - the Brexit Party saved Labour in a stack of seats. I expect the number of FUKkers to be even higher this time, and vs 2019 they will mostly be transfers from Tory 2019 totals.

    It is going to be a political bloodbath. And well deserved - will be fun to see what Lord Ben I'll Sue Houchen will do with his local support all gone and the wolves closing in on the scent of malfeasance...
    Round here a comment I’ve heard often is where have all these coloured people come from.

    And it’s not usually as a racist comment we’ve always had a few people of Asian / African descent but there are noticeably more than used to be the case

    Granted a lot of the people complaining won’t actually vote but it does show how many people think Bozo and co have utterly failed to deliver what they promised
    They exploited people's concerns to deliver what they wanted - which for the clown was merely to sit in the big chair. That they cared so little about delivering some beneficial outcomes for those voters is of course partly why they are where they are.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,920
    kjh said:

    Travel question please (especially @leon):

    Planning a trip to Las Vegas and Death Valley. Suggestions please?

    Will do trip to Grand Canyon while in LV as well. I want to go by helicopter, but my wife won't get in one. I also I understand they only go to the West Rim, which doesn't seem the best option. So what do we do? I definitely want the helicopter trip somewhere in it, which I could do at the South Rim, but the trip to there seems a long way by road.

    I'm planning this around a Santana concert.

    Suggestions, suggestions, suggestions please?

    I live to help. I have actually done the Grand Canyon helicopter ride. It is definitely worth the money for a once-in-a-lifetime experience

    But be warned it is quite hair raising. I've done multiple helicopter rides - I've done microflight rides halfway up K2 - and this is the only one that has freaked me out. It is quite scary, and you get intense and various thermals from the desert and the canyon

    I cannot remember which particular one we did. I remember we had to get a bus from LV which took about 30-60 minutes to some anonymous landing strip. It was the day Notre Dame burned down - news which came as light relief after that ride
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,366

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Energy prices now predicted to fall further than thought.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68055884

    Adjusting for inflation (and pay rises) it looks like they'll be similar to what they were five years ago:

    https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

    I'd say the government has done a good job in getting the combination of general support on energy, specific support for the vulnerable and encouraging energy efficiency about right.

    Government support has been fantastic for pensioners (quelle surprise) with an automatic £500-600 payment. It's been terrible for those on low incomes (means tested £150).

    I often think back to the working mum of two behind the bar at my old local commenting that she was paying £600 a month heating her house last winter. And then I wonder how many people stopped heating their houses entirely.
    How much were they paying the winter before that ?

    And if they stopped heating their houses entirely how were they paying £600 per month ?

    Not to mention the £400 the government gave everyone toward energy bills last winter or the extra £650 those on low incomes received in 2022 or the £150 council tax rebate. **

    And who are all these people who have been getting £900 this last year:

    Eight million people on means-tested benefits will receive a final instalment of cost-of-living payments in February.

    Those on benefits such as universal credit will be paid directly, without the need to make a claim, between 6 February and 22 February.

    It is the last of three instalments that total £900.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61592496

    ** How many of us are aware of all these extra benefits which have been paid ? Even if you receive them they're often quickly forgotten - I'd forgotten about the council tax rebate of 2022.
    Read my comment. I didn't say *they* stopped heating their house. I'm just asking how many people on low incomes did. My guess is quite a lot.

    I wasn't talking about people on benefits. Plenty of people on low incomes, believe it or not, not claiming benefits.

    I have no idea how much they were paying the winter before that, because it's a single anecdote from a worker in a pub I used to drink in last winter. I'm not going back to question them on it. Quite possibly the figure was their combined gas + electricity bill. I didn't ask. Or quite possibly they lived in a house with electricity only, and no gas. I only know that is how much they were paying a month.

    However I can tell you that my boiler costs one pound seventy something an hour to run, so you'd only need to be running it 8 hours a day to spend four hundred quid a month on gas central heating. Pretty possible for a poorly insulated three bedroom home in the depths of winter. A house with electric heating would be way over that.
    Anecdotally some people have reduced their heating or not used it. I assist with the Lions collecting at Christmas and go to a lot of doors. In the past many, many houses would be very warm, occupants in shorts etc. This year a lot of places were significantly colder, and people were wearing many layers. Its definitely a thing.
    In all honesty, that's not something to necessarily bewail. Having your house so warm in winter that you are stripping down to shorts and tshirts seems to be a waste of resources. I am sat here in a fleece and have only just taken my woolly hat off.
    Obviously I'd like heating to be cheap, but I don't necessarily object to people dressing for the seasons a bit more.
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    TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    edited January 23
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    This election is going to play very differently regionally. I expect the Tories to be all but wiped out in London, metropolitan areas and to have a shocker in the South West and Wales. Conversely, I think their vote will be stickier than expected in the midlands and in some northern county/small towns.

    I can't speak for the Midlands. For northern England they are going to get absolutely destroyed. Whilst there will remain pockets of shire Tories, all of the places where blue collar Boris Brexit Toryism exploded in 2019 will be lost. All. Maybe keep a random couple if they are lucky and the vote splits right to allow their collapse to still leave them on top.

    Why? Because, to get all northern again for a minute, they've done fuck all round here. Too. many morons unexpectedly elected, fed the spin lines by head office which they parrot about all the things they are delivering. Whilst delivering nothing. Voters are used to nothing, but they're not used to being lied to about it.

    Worse still is the parochial bigotry that was always close to the surface in many towns now whipped to a frenzy. They voted Brexit and then Boris to get the foreigners out. Gone. Its their fault we can't see a doctor, why the schools are crap, why there's no jobs and no money. And even in 2019 the lure of the further right was strong - the Brexit Party saved Labour in a stack of seats. I expect the number of FUKkers to be even higher this time, and vs 2019 they will mostly be transfers from Tory 2019 totals.

    It is going to be a political bloodbath. And well deserved - will be fun to see what Lord Ben I'll Sue Houchen will do with his local support all gone and the wolves closing in on the scent of malfeasance...
    Round here a comment I’ve heard often is where have all these coloured people come from.

    And it’s not usually as a racist comment we’ve always had a few people of Asian / African descent but there are noticeably more than used to be the case

    Granted a lot of the people complaining won’t actually vote but it does show how many people think Bozo and co have utterly failed to deliver what they promised
    It's a lot worse than "not delivering", they have done the opposite of delivering. We have had 1.3 million migrants in two years, which is: simply off the dial, unprecedented in our history, changing the country visibly and briskly, and is a larger rate per capita than any annual immigration into the "land of immigrants" - the USA

    We are importing more people than America in the era of Ellis Island. Take a minute and grasp that

    It is screamingly insane, it is a kind of Ponzi scheme, and all of this is happening as everyone admits the NHS can't cope, our sewage system can't cope, our infrastructure is fucked, and house-ownership is becoming a dream for anyone under 50

    The Tories are going to be obliterated, and deservedly, to the extent they may never recover

    However, Starmer will then have to tackle this issue. It cannot be ignored. What will he do?



    How much off that 1.3 million is Ukraine/Hong Kong and adjustments of student numbers after covid?
    I believe about 100-150,000 is Ukraine/HK

    Students dunno, but an awful lot of them have brought dependants (much more than usual), and a much higher propertion are now converting their student visas to work visas, so they stay


    Now it's great that people want to come here, it's good our unis are attractive, I am sure 98% of these people are fantastic brain surgeons to be, but the simple fact is the UK cannot cope with 700,000 net immigrants a year. Remember when Cameron vowed to get it down to tens of thousands? Now it is SEVEN HUNDRED THOUSAND

    To grasp this nettle will take courage. Does Starmer possess it? I doubt it, and it's not in Labour's nature to clamp down on migration
    The easiest way to stop it would be to impose a limit on universities accepting overseas graduates and then be prepared to let universities fail. It actually would not be that hard but the Government will not do it because (1) it is scared of the squealing from the well-paid university vice-chancellors and (2) I think many, particularly in the Treasury but also in Government, see it as a less politically toxic way to get cheap labour in and so offset the effects of Brexit.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    Sandpit said:

    Small but astonishing moment in this mornng's evidence at the PO Inquiry.

    The witness is another 'Investigator' and it emerged that when he submitted his cv for the job, he put forward his wife's qualifications as his own!

    The PO certainly found some pond life to carry out its dirty work.

    So the PO didn’t even vet the CVs of people they hired as investigators?

    That explains a lot.
    How could they investigate them properly?
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re one of the PBers who thinks Biden is gonna win this year then it might be worth finding better odds on the 2028 POTUS elex

    Coz if Biden wins in 24 there is no way Americans will give it to the Dems AGAIN in 28. And by then Trump will (surely) have disappeared. So I reckon a GOP victory is extremely likely (if Biden wins this year)

    Both Vivek and Haley would be very strong candidates in 2028?

    Only problem

    1. You’d be tying up your money for about 23,000 years

    2. I can’t actually find odds on the victor of POTUS 2028

    Other than that I heartily recommend this BETTING TIP

    I would be cautious about offering or accepting odds for the 2028 POTUS election. If Trump wins in 2024 (which he will) we have absolutely no idea in what sort of political conditions any future election will be fought WRT observance of the law, use of intimidation, abuse of democratic processes etc.

    I think most of us would be unable to say for certain that intimidation is not already a factor in what leading Republicans feel they can say, do or support.

    Last time we could believe he would campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Not this time.
    My BETTING ADVICE was restricted to those convinced Biden will win in 24, which renders your point somewhat otiose
    Not otiose, just misplaced.

    And if wishes were horses beggars would ride.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,315
    edited January 23

    Small but astonishing moment in this mornng's evidence at the PO Inquiry.

    The witness is another 'Investigator' and it emerged that when he submitted his cv for the job, he put forward his wife's qualifications as his own!

    The PO certainly found some pond life to carry out its dirty work.

    That’s called obtaining a pecuniary advantage by deception.
This discussion has been closed.