ON TOPIC? And another "here we go again" story . . .
NYT ($) - ‘Would a Call From Tammy Help?’ Pressure Grows in Race to Oust Menendez In a series of calls, a person in contact with the Senate campaign of Gov. Philip Murphy’s wife pressured a student Democratic group not to endorse her chief rival in the New Jersey race.
The College Democrats of New Jersey were preparing to make an endorsement in one of the country’s most closely watched U.S. Senate primaries when calls began to come in from someone in touch with the campaign of Tammy Murphy, the presumptive front-runner and the wife of the state’s governor.
The caller, a female college student who works as a youth coordinator for the Democratic State Committee, wanted to know what Ms. Murphy’s campaign could do to block the group from endorsing Ms. Murphy’s main rival, Representative Andy Kim.
“Would a call from Tammy help?” the woman said she asked . . .
Then, in a series of calls over the next two hours, the pressure from the caller, Keely Magee, escalated to warnings — about funding and future job prospects for leaders of the College Democrats, according to several people involved in the discussions and a recording of one call.
In an interview, Ms. Magee said the Murphy campaign had not asked her to pressure the group on its behalf. But she acknowledged being aware that members of Ms. Murphy’s campaign staff “wanted to do something to prevent the endorsement,” and said she was receiving text messages from a Murphy campaign consultant, Dave Parano. . . .
The effort to stop the endorsement failed. On Wednesday, both the College Democrats of America and the New Jersey chapter issued full-throated endorsements of Mr. Kim, a South Jersey Democrat running against Ms. Murphy for the chance to oust Senator Bob Menendez.
The episode offered a rare, behind-the-scenes look at the high-stakes political battle playing out as New Jersey’s first lady, a first-time candidate, struggles to gain grass-roots traction in her bid to unseat Mr. Menendez, who faces federal bribery charges.
With support from her husband, Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a second-term Democrat, Ms. Murphy has been endorsed by many of the state’s most powerful Democrats and has raised a record amount of contributions in her campaign’s first six weeks. Yet several polls suggest that she continues to trail Mr. Kim by a wide margin. . . .
SSI - Typical New Jersey political hack tactics, of kind that Woodrow Wilson railed against - after snookering & taking advantage of the hacks - back circa 1910.
Gov. Murphy and his wife are a very powerful couple. He is gov of state with one of the most powerful state executives in the nation; she is a top NJ Democratic fundraiser. So far they've parlayed this into endorsements from equally powerful local county political power brokers, this ensuring Mrs Murphy poll position on the 2024 NJ Democratic primary ballot, thanks to Garden State's unique - and inherently corrupt - county ticket system.
Can you just give us the link and then two lines of your summary. I am sure I'm using up more fossil fuels than I need by scrolling past your interminable posts.
No - but thanks for reposting!
Boring as fuck I reckon one in a hundred people read the whole thing. But you go ahead.
Thank you for your gracious permission.
BTW, are you aware, this is a political betting site?
1. Read the article (which seems to be paywalled anyway so are you violating some kind of copywright) 2. Come to some mind-bendingly insightful conclusion about the issue. 3. Post that conclusion so we can all ignore what you say as usual benefit from your analysis.
You’re feeling a bit punchy this afternoon aren’t you @topping.
Though it’s all forgiven as by replying to your post I’ve seen how to do a strike through, which brings me great pleasure.
He used to be such a gentle chap but recently he is taking no shit.
ON TOPIC? And another "here we go again" story . . .
NYT ($) - ‘Would a Call From Tammy Help?’ Pressure Grows in Race to Oust Menendez In a series of calls, a person in contact with the Senate campaign of Gov. Philip Murphy’s wife pressured a student Democratic group not to endorse her chief rival in the New Jersey race.
The College Democrats of New Jersey were preparing to make an endorsement in one of the country’s most closely watched U.S. Senate primaries when calls began to come in from someone in touch with the campaign of Tammy Murphy, the presumptive front-runner and the wife of the state’s governor.
The caller, a female college student who works as a youth coordinator for the Democratic State Committee, wanted to know what Ms. Murphy’s campaign could do to block the group from endorsing Ms. Murphy’s main rival, Representative Andy Kim.
“Would a call from Tammy help?” the woman said she asked . . .
Then, in a series of calls over the next two hours, the pressure from the caller, Keely Magee, escalated to warnings — about funding and future job prospects for leaders of the College Democrats, according to several people involved in the discussions and a recording of one call.
In an interview, Ms. Magee said the Murphy campaign had not asked her to pressure the group on its behalf. But she acknowledged being aware that members of Ms. Murphy’s campaign staff “wanted to do something to prevent the endorsement,” and said she was receiving text messages from a Murphy campaign consultant, Dave Parano. . . .
The effort to stop the endorsement failed. On Wednesday, both the College Democrats of America and the New Jersey chapter issued full-throated endorsements of Mr. Kim, a South Jersey Democrat running against Ms. Murphy for the chance to oust Senator Bob Menendez.
The episode offered a rare, behind-the-scenes look at the high-stakes political battle playing out as New Jersey’s first lady, a first-time candidate, struggles to gain grass-roots traction in her bid to unseat Mr. Menendez, who faces federal bribery charges.
With support from her husband, Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a second-term Democrat, Ms. Murphy has been endorsed by many of the state’s most powerful Democrats and has raised a record amount of contributions in her campaign’s first six weeks. Yet several polls suggest that she continues to trail Mr. Kim by a wide margin. . . .
SSI - Typical New Jersey political hack tactics, of kind that Woodrow Wilson railed against - after snookering & taking advantage of the hacks - back circa 1910.
Gov. Murphy and his wife are a very powerful couple. He is gov of state with one of the most powerful state executives in the nation; she is a top NJ Democratic fundraiser. So far they've parlayed this into endorsements from equally powerful local county political power brokers, this ensuring Mrs Murphy poll position on the 2024 NJ Democratic primary ballot, thanks to Garden State's unique - and inherently corrupt - county ticket system.
Can you just give us the link and then two lines of your summary. I am sure I'm using up more fossil fuels than I need by scrolling past your interminable posts.
No - but thanks for reposting!
Boring as fuck I reckon one in a hundred people read the whole thing. But you go ahead.
Thank you for your gracious permission.
BTW, are you aware, this is a political betting site?
1. Read the article (which seems to be paywalled anyway so are you violating some kind of copywright) 2. Come to some mind-bendingly insightful conclusion about the issue. 3. Post that conclusion so we can all ignore what you say as usual benefit from your analysis.
You’re feeling a bit punchy this afternoon aren’t you @topping.
Though it’s all forgiven as by replying to your post I’ve seen how to do a strike through, which brings me great pleasure.
He used to be such a gentle chap but recently he is taking no shit.
ON TOPIC? And another "here we go again" story . . .
NYT ($) - ‘Would a Call From Tammy Help?’ Pressure Grows in Race to Oust Menendez In a series of calls, a person in contact with the Senate campaign of Gov. Philip Murphy’s wife pressured a student Democratic group not to endorse her chief rival in the New Jersey race.
The College Democrats of New Jersey were preparing to make an endorsement in one of the country’s most closely watched U.S. Senate primaries when calls began to come in from someone in touch with the campaign of Tammy Murphy, the presumptive front-runner and the wife of the state’s governor.
The caller, a female college student who works as a youth coordinator for the Democratic State Committee, wanted to know what Ms. Murphy’s campaign could do to block the group from endorsing Ms. Murphy’s main rival, Representative Andy Kim.
“Would a call from Tammy help?” the woman said she asked . . .
Then, in a series of calls over the next two hours, the pressure from the caller, Keely Magee, escalated to warnings — about funding and future job prospects for leaders of the College Democrats, according to several people involved in the discussions and a recording of one call.
In an interview, Ms. Magee said the Murphy campaign had not asked her to pressure the group on its behalf. But she acknowledged being aware that members of Ms. Murphy’s campaign staff “wanted to do something to prevent the endorsement,” and said she was receiving text messages from a Murphy campaign consultant, Dave Parano. . . .
The effort to stop the endorsement failed. On Wednesday, both the College Democrats of America and the New Jersey chapter issued full-throated endorsements of Mr. Kim, a South Jersey Democrat running against Ms. Murphy for the chance to oust Senator Bob Menendez.
The episode offered a rare, behind-the-scenes look at the high-stakes political battle playing out as New Jersey’s first lady, a first-time candidate, struggles to gain grass-roots traction in her bid to unseat Mr. Menendez, who faces federal bribery charges.
With support from her husband, Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a second-term Democrat, Ms. Murphy has been endorsed by many of the state’s most powerful Democrats and has raised a record amount of contributions in her campaign’s first six weeks. Yet several polls suggest that she continues to trail Mr. Kim by a wide margin. . . .
SSI - Typical New Jersey political hack tactics, of kind that Woodrow Wilson railed against - after snookering & taking advantage of the hacks - back circa 1910.
Gov. Murphy and his wife are a very powerful couple. He is gov of state with one of the most powerful state executives in the nation; she is a top NJ Democratic fundraiser. So far they've parlayed this into endorsements from equally powerful local county political power brokers, this ensuring Mrs Murphy poll position on the 2024 NJ Democratic primary ballot, thanks to Garden State's unique - and inherently corrupt - county ticket system.
Can you just give us the link and then two lines of your summary. I am sure I'm using up more fossil fuels than I need by scrolling past your interminable posts.
No - but thanks for reposting!
Boring as fuck I reckon one in a hundred people read the whole thing. But you go ahead.
Thank you for your gracious permission.
BTW, are you aware, this is a political betting site?
1. Read the article (which seems to be paywalled anyway so are you violating some kind of copywright) 2. Come to some mind-bendingly insightful conclusion about the issue. 3. Post that conclusion so we can all ignore what you say as usual benefit from your analysis.
You’re feeling a bit punchy this afternoon aren’t you @topping.
Though it’s all forgiven as by replying to your post I’ve seen how to do a strike through, which brings me great pleasure.
He used to be such a gentle chap but recently he is taking no shit.
The same Hizb ut-Tahrir that was due to be proscribed by the Blair and Cameron governments who announced it but did not follow up.
Sounds like Starmers fault to me.
Funny you should say that, he represented them in court when they were proscribed in Germany
Starmer acted for extremist Islamist group in bid to overturn ban Labour leader applied to European Court of Human Rights to reverse Germany's prohibition of Hizb ut-Tahrir
Let's hope the heat of PB keeps us all warm on what's going to be a jolly cold night though not as severe as Iowa where it's going to be -35 (Centigrade or Fahrenheit? First one, then the other would be my riposte).
The actual VI of the YouGov/MRP is Labour 39.5%, Conservative 26%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Reform 9% and Green 7%. A 12% Conservative lead in December 2019 is a 13.5% Labour lead in January 2024 so that's a 12.75% swing with the Conservative to Liberal Democrat swing (a 33-point gap cut to a 13.5-point gap) is just shy of 10%.
Most constituencies have their quirks and neither applying UNS nor factoring in tactical voting is likely to tell the complete story. The Clacton poll (without Farage) had a huge swing from Conservative to Labour and there will be considerable variations across England (let alone Wales and Scotland).
There will be some areas where the swing to Labour is much lower than the "national average" and others where it is much higher. From what little evidence we have, the larger the Conservative majority the larger the swing - this may help the Conservatives retain more seats even on a lower percentage as their vote becomes more efficient yet there are clear islands of Conservative strength - Dudley, Walsall, Dartford to name but three.
WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero.
* WHERE...All of central Iowa.
* WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.
Do caucuses require in person attendance from the candidates? And in an unrelated musing, what happens to soiled incontinence underwear at -35°?
In person in Iowa, I believe.
From voters but NOT candidates.
The memes about the gammy leg and filled trousers are I reckon the most powerful campaign messages Trump’s opponents have come up with. You can care not a jot about racist and sexist comments, and threats to democratic norms. But still hesitate quite a bit about the idea of voting for a guy who walks by dragging his foot on the ground and whose security detail conscientiously only walk up wind. Whether it’s the truth or post-truth is I suppose all part of the fun.
ON TOPIC? And another "here we go again" story . . .
NYT ($) - ‘Would a Call From Tammy Help?’ Pressure Grows in Race to Oust Menendez In a series of calls, a person in contact with the Senate campaign of Gov. Philip Murphy’s wife pressured a student Democratic group not to endorse her chief rival in the New Jersey race.
The College Democrats of New Jersey were preparing to make an endorsement in one of the country’s most closely watched U.S. Senate primaries when calls began to come in from someone in touch with the campaign of Tammy Murphy, the presumptive front-runner and the wife of the state’s governor.
The caller, a female college student who works as a youth coordinator for the Democratic State Committee, wanted to know what Ms. Murphy’s campaign could do to block the group from endorsing Ms. Murphy’s main rival, Representative Andy Kim.
“Would a call from Tammy help?” the woman said she asked . . .
Then, in a series of calls over the next two hours, the pressure from the caller, Keely Magee, escalated to warnings — about funding and future job prospects for leaders of the College Democrats, according to several people involved in the discussions and a recording of one call.
In an interview, Ms. Magee said the Murphy campaign had not asked her to pressure the group on its behalf. But she acknowledged being aware that members of Ms. Murphy’s campaign staff “wanted to do something to prevent the endorsement,” and said she was receiving text messages from a Murphy campaign consultant, Dave Parano. . . .
The effort to stop the endorsement failed. On Wednesday, both the College Democrats of America and the New Jersey chapter issued full-throated endorsements of Mr. Kim, a South Jersey Democrat running against Ms. Murphy for the chance to oust Senator Bob Menendez.
The episode offered a rare, behind-the-scenes look at the high-stakes political battle playing out as New Jersey’s first lady, a first-time candidate, struggles to gain grass-roots traction in her bid to unseat Mr. Menendez, who faces federal bribery charges.
With support from her husband, Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a second-term Democrat, Ms. Murphy has been endorsed by many of the state’s most powerful Democrats and has raised a record amount of contributions in her campaign’s first six weeks. Yet several polls suggest that she continues to trail Mr. Kim by a wide margin. . . .
SSI - Typical New Jersey political hack tactics, of kind that Woodrow Wilson railed against - after snookering & taking advantage of the hacks - back circa 1910.
Gov. Murphy and his wife are a very powerful couple. He is gov of state with one of the most powerful state executives in the nation; she is a top NJ Democratic fundraiser. So far they've parlayed this into endorsements from equally powerful local county political power brokers, this ensuring Mrs Murphy poll position on the 2024 NJ Democratic primary ballot, thanks to Garden State's unique - and inherently corrupt - county ticket system.
Can you just give us the link and then two lines of your summary. I am sure I'm using up more fossil fuels than I need by scrolling past your interminable posts.
No - but thanks for reposting!
Boring as fuck I reckon one in a hundred people read the whole thing. But you go ahead.
Thank you for your gracious permission.
BTW, are you aware, this is a political betting site?
1. Read the article (which seems to be paywalled anyway so are you violating some kind of copywright) 2. Come to some mind-bendingly insightful conclusion about the issue. 3. Post that conclusion so we can all ignore what you say as usual benefit from your analysis.
You’re feeling a bit punchy this afternoon aren’t you @topping.
Though it’s all forgiven as by replying to your post I’ve seen how to do a strike through, which brings me great pleasure.
He used to be such a gentle chap but recently he is taking no shit.
Still gentle as a kitten, Malc.
Gentle as the kitten I once had to remove from a Christmas tree?
Of course that critter also meant no (lasting) harm!
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
@Cyclefree in her excellent thread header notes in passing that the Scottish government is "peculiarly prone to this form of cronyism."
A pinnacle in that regard was surely met in the context of the Expert Advisory Group on Ending Conversion Practices who are proposing that such practices should be banned in Scotland. Wings over Scotland, in an excellent piece of research, showed that all 15 of the members of this expert committee were activists opposed to such practices and a majority were employed by or members of organisations funded largely by the Scottish Government.
They are now trying to hide who was on the committee. I find this surprising, surely the Scottish Government is well beyond embarrassment, but even they perhaps have some sense of shame: https://wingsoverscotland.com/down-the-memory-hole-again/
It's well worth a read, it goes beyond funny.
Oh I had that in mind I can assure you. I understand that one or two of the members of this so-called expert committee have committed sexual offences against children. Which is not funny at all.
At least 1 member of the expert committee was sponsored by LGBT Youth Scotland who have an appalling record in respect of children which includes their former CEO being sentenced to a multiyear sentence for child pornography and repeated allegations of grooming. Why the Scottish government thinks that organisation is still a worthy recipient of public money is something of a mystery. Why it is thought that a representative from it was a worthy contributor to the "expert" committee might also be. But there are no accusations against her, so far as I am aware.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I don't know how else to explain this to PB Tories -> the later you leave the election, the higher the chance that this kind of ELE happens.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is: No election in May Tory councillors get ploughed Leadership challenge ousts Sunak Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
Gosh I don’t know if there are actually any PB Tories left…@casino_royale was one of the last and even he is suggesting a very Labourite programme of public investment funded by wealth taxes…it’s quite discombobulating.
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
The Tories aren't going to be reduced to 69 seats, 169 is far more likely.
Boris is a charismatic campaigner, with a good eye for a popular turn of phrase, but lazy and a terrible administrator - and with no ethics whatsoever.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I don't know how else to explain this to PB Tories -> the later you leave the election, the higher the chance that this kind of ELE happens.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is: No election in May Tory councillors get ploughed Leadership challenge ousts Sunak Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
Gosh I don’t know if there are actually any PB Tories left…@casino_royale was one of the last and even he is suggesting a very Labourite programme of public investment funded by wealth taxes…it’s quite discombobulating.
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Poor HYUFD - forgotten despite his stonewall defence.
WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero.
* WHERE...All of central Iowa.
* WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.
Trump turns from the Abominable No-man to the Abominable Snowman?
I nominate Trump to do a William Henry Harrison style speech in Iowa.
A vain hope. He wouldn't know what Roman proconsuls were, never mind be able to name check 17 of them.
Bonus +5 points for specifying 'Roman'. I only knew about the other kind to begin with and was rather startled when I encountered your kind in Latin lessons at school.
To give PBers a taste of the bracing (especially this year!) atmosphere of Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, here is list of locations for one county, Winneshiek:
St Bridget Catholic Church, Bluffton = 5 precincts St. John's Lutheran Church, Decorah = 5 Stone Ridge Community Church, Decorah = 2 VFW [Veterans of Foreign Wars] Post 1977, Decorah = 3 Christian Life Center, Decorah = 4 Ossian Community Center, Ossian = 3 Spillville Public Library, Spillville = 3 Ridgeway Community Center, Ridgeway = 2
Note that in some cases, precincts are combined into single caucus meeting.
WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero.
* WHERE...All of central Iowa.
* WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.
Trump turns from the Abominable No-man to the Abominable Snowman?
I nominate Trump to do a William Henry Harrison style speech in Iowa.
One thing we shall surely see in the next few days is the suspension of Ron DeSantis's campaign. The next question will be whether Halley can consolidate the neverTrump vote.
Boris is a charismatic campaigner, with a good eye for a popular turn of phrase, but lazy and a terrible administrator - and with no ethics whatsoever.
Sunak is almost the precise opposite.
Well, almost.
He's a weak campaigner, can't turn phrases, *and* is a terrible administrator.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I don't know how else to explain this to PB Tories -> the later you leave the election, the higher the chance that this kind of ELE happens.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is: No election in May Tory councillors get ploughed Leadership challenge ousts Sunak Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
Gosh I don’t know if there are actually any PB Tories left…@casino_royale was one of the last and even he is suggesting a very Labourite programme of public investment funded by wealth taxes…it’s quite discombobulating.
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Poor HYUFD - forgotten despite his stonewall defence.
Oh goodness yes, sorry HY. That’s as bad as when we go on holiday (in our camper, @TOPPING, no need to swear) and forget to find someone to feed our pet cats.
I would exile myself to ConHome but I was sent here from there in the first place for mentioning late-stage capitalism.
I still struggle to see Labour winning a three figure majority given (a) Starmer isn't that popular and (b) the 2019 baseline. I still think Labour is highly likely to win a majority but a 1997 style result would I think rely on Starmer's ratings improving and/or really industrial scale anti Tory tactical voting.
Boris is a charismatic campaigner, with a good eye for a popular turn of phrase, but lazy and a terrible administrator - and with no ethics whatsoever.
Sunak is almost the precise opposite.
Sunak is a charismatic administrator? Talk about British exceptionalism!
(Though Lord Woolton might actually have ticked that box?)
We seem to have created a new profession of 'Director', selection by knowing another director, and where most of the directors spread themselves across as many directorships as possible, receiving a nice salary for a few days work a month at each.
Let's hope the heat of PB keeps us all warm on what's going to be a jolly cold night though not as severe as Iowa where it's going to be -35 (Centigrade or Fahrenheit? First one, then the other would be my riposte).
The actual VI of the YouGov/MRP is Labour 39.5%, Conservative 26%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Reform 9% and Green 7%. A 12% Conservative lead in December 2019 is a 13.5% Labour lead in January 2024 so that's a 12.75% swing with the Conservative to Liberal Democrat swing (a 33-point gap cut to a 13.5-point gap) is just shy of 10%.
Most constituencies have their quirks and neither applying UNS nor factoring in tactical voting is likely to tell the complete story. The Clacton poll (without Farage) had a huge swing from Conservative to Labour and there will be considerable variations across England (let alone Wales and Scotland).
There will be some areas where the swing to Labour is much lower than the "national average" and others where it is much higher. From what little evidence we have, the larger the Conservative majority the larger the swing - this may help the Conservatives retain more seats even on a lower percentage as their vote becomes more efficient yet there are clear islands of Conservative strength - Dudley, Walsall, Dartford to name but three.
This article also contradicts some of the assumptions built into the Telegraph reporting especially concerning the Reform vote.
The Telegraph were lying...
No, desperately spinning terrible data into something which gives their Conservative readership a small sense of hope.
Believing somehow, in some way, as in 2019, Farage and Tice will ride over the hill and save them is probably their last card short of huge unsustainable tax cuts in the spring.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I don't know how else to explain this to PB Tories -> the later you leave the election, the higher the chance that this kind of ELE happens.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is: No election in May Tory councillors get ploughed Leadership challenge ousts Sunak Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
Gosh I don’t know if there are actually any PB Tories left…@casino_royale was one of the last and even he is suggesting a very Labourite programme of public investment funded by wealth taxes…it’s quite discombobulating.
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Poor HYUFD - forgotten despite his stonewall defence.
I said PB Tories. He is a leek-carrying Plaid Cymru voter.
You do wonder if they might just axe Sunak. At what point does it become so dire that you might just be best rolling the dice one last time?
Though I do think that it could be a self fulfilling prophecy and another leader could simply make them plummet even further.
Also - who?
Johnson isn’t in the Commons. Farage isn’t in the party or the Commons. Penny is apparently too woke for them (and I like her a lot, but I’m not sure I credit her with the steel she’d need to turn it around). Suella is pretty much discredited. Kemi is having a bit of a problem with the post. Dave is in the Lords. Cleverley has the issue with the offensive comments. Hunt is too managerial. And they surely can’t go back to Liz Bloody Truss.
I think Rishi has a 1 in 3 chance of being ousted. However, there needs to be a heir apparent or king-over-the-water, and there doesn’t appear to be one.
The nearest thing the Tories have is the shabby remains of Boris Johnson, who of course is not an MP.
I am not sure that is true.
Sticking with Richi guarantees eviction. Why not roll the dice?
If they had known that ousting BoZo would lead to Truss, perhaps some would have stayed their hand, and yet, he still needed to go...
If we believe Nadine Dorries, next one along is Kemi, who has been keeping her head down during the Post Office business. That said, I cannot really see Kemi as a Sam Allardyce figure.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I don't know how else to explain this to PB Tories -> the later you leave the election, the higher the chance that this kind of ELE happens.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is: No election in May Tory councillors get ploughed Leadership challenge ousts Sunak Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
Gosh I don’t know if there are actually any PB Tories left…@casino_royale was one of the last and even he is suggesting a very Labourite programme of public investment funded by wealth taxes…it’s quite discombobulating.
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Poor HYUFD - forgotten despite his stonewall defence.
Oh goodness yes, sorry HY. That’s as bad as when we go on holiday (in our camper, @TOPPING, no need to swear) and forget to find someone to feed our pet cats.
I would exile myself to ConHome but I was sent here from there in the first place for mentioning late-stage capitalism.
And did the camper run on recycled spinach leaves? No I very much doubt it did.
Boris is a charismatic campaigner, with a good eye for a popular turn of phrase, but lazy and a terrible administrator - and with no ethics whatsoever.
Sunak is almost the precise opposite.
Well, almost.
He's a weak campaigner, can't turn phrases, *and* is a terrible administrator.
Wouldn't accuse him of being lazy, to be fair.
Jury's out on the ethics.
"...I divide my officers into four classes as follows: the clever, the industrious, the lazy, and the stupid. Each officer always possesses two of these qualities. Those who are clever and industrious I appoint to the General Staff. Use can under certain circumstances be made of those who are stupid and lazy. The man who is clever and lazy qualifies for the highest leadership posts. He has the requisite and the mental clarity for difficult decisions. But whoever is stupid and industrious must be got rid of, for he is too dangerous..."
- attributed to Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord 1933; possibly apocryphal
You do wonder if they might just axe Sunak. At what point does it become so dire that you might just be best rolling the dice one last time?
Though I do think that it could be a self fulfilling prophecy and another leader could simply make them plummet even further.
Also - who?
Johnson isn’t in the Commons. Farage isn’t in the party or the Commons. Penny is apparently too woke for them (and I like her a lot, but I’m not sure I credit her with the steel she’d need to turn it around). Suella is pretty much discredited. Kemi is having a bit of a problem with the post. Dave is in the Lords. Cleverley has the issue with the offensive comments. Hunt is too managerial. And they surely can’t go back to Liz Bloody Truss.
We haven't had four PMs in one parliament since 1865-68.
And at least one of them actually snuffed it and of the other three two were more or less superannuated.
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
Starmer leads Sunak on ALL 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:
Cares about people like me (40% | 23%) Understands the problems afflicting the UK (42% | 27%) Is a strong leader (37% | 27%) Can build a strong economy (39% | 31%)
Boris is a charismatic campaigner, with a good eye for a popular turn of phrase, but lazy and a terrible administrator - and with no ethics whatsoever.
Sunak is almost the precise opposite.
Rishi Sunak is a redoubtable administrator with rock solid ethics? Hmm....
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
Huge if true, as the saying goes.
Yes, indeed.
Anyone suggesting Jenkyns has good sense clearly has to resign due to lack of mental capacity.
He was great as FS, what a disaster he's been since.
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I don't know how else to explain this to PB Tories -> the later you leave the election, the higher the chance that this kind of ELE happens.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is: No election in May Tory councillors get ploughed Leadership challenge ousts Sunak Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
Gosh I don’t know if there are actually any PB Tories left…@casino_royale was one of the last and even he is suggesting a very Labourite programme of public investment funded by wealth taxes…it’s quite discombobulating.
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Poor HYUFD - forgotten despite his stonewall defence.
Oh goodness yes, sorry HY. That’s as bad as when we go on holiday (in our camper, @TOPPING, no need to swear) and forget to find someone to feed our pet cats.
I would exile myself to ConHome but I was sent here from there in the first place for mentioning late-stage capitalism.
And did the camper run on recycled spinach leaves? No I very much doubt it did.
No but I should warn you that my hypocrisy runs far deeper than burning compressed sunlight to allow me to host a cold and grumpy family in a field.
Starmer leads Sunak on ALL 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:
Cares about people like me (40% | 23%) Understands the problems afflicting the UK (42% | 27%) Is a strong leader (37% | 27%) Can build a strong economy (39% | 31%)
Although largely this makes me think 'who would be a minister' because no doubt thrust into my non-specialist field I'd make errors daily which random herberts on the internet would then mock.
We also learn from the article that: "A YouGov survey last September showed more than half (54 per cent) of the British public did not want to travel to outer space, while 36 per cent would like the opportunity and a further 10 per cent said they did not know."
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I don't know how else to explain this to PB Tories -> the later you leave the election, the higher the chance that this kind of ELE happens.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is: No election in May Tory councillors get ploughed Leadership challenge ousts Sunak Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
Gosh I don’t know if there are actually any PB Tories left…@casino_royale was one of the last and even he is suggesting a very Labourite programme of public investment funded by wealth taxes…it’s quite discombobulating.
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Poor HYUFD - forgotten despite his stonewall defence.
I said PB Tories. He is a leek-carrying Plaid Cymru voter.
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
If people vote and then he passes away, a la Horace Greeley, will it be worth it?
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
Huge if true, as the saying goes.
Are you saying (or forecasting) that Home Sec may soon be Home-less?
Probably noise, but if not I'd guess the stories about him defending child-killers and terrorists would have more effect than his responsibility for the PO scandal.
The Conservative 2019 vote (based on Likelihood to Vote and 70% are either 4 or 5 on a scale where 5 is certain to vote so expectations of a lower turnout mat not be entirely justified) splits 50% Conservative, 17% Don't Know, 15% Reform and 14% Labour.
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
Isn't that the same with postal votes in the UK?
Its the same as all votes. If you put your ballot in the ballot box on election day, then drop dead right there and then, or get hit by a bus after leaving the polling station, they don't fish your ballot back out. Once you've voted, you've voted.
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
If people vote and then he passes away, a la Horace Greeley, will it be worth it?
Probably NOT for DJT. He being somewhat less public spirited than HG.
Probably noise, but if not I'd guess the stories about him defending child-killers and terrorists would have more effect than his responsibility for the PO scandal.
I'd expect these stories to form part of a dirty tricks social media campaign at the next election, or at least are being trialled as such.
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
If people vote and then he passes away, a la Horace Greeley, will it be worth it?
Probably NOT for DJT. He being somewhat less public spirited than HG.
Possibly also not for the planet, given his running mate would potentially become POTUS instead and is likely to be someone even madder than he is.
Do we have any markets? His daughter might be a candidate, or Kari Lake.
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
Huge if true, as the saying goes.
Yes, indeed.
Anyone suggesting Jenkyns has good sense clearly has to resign due to lack of mental capacity.
He was great as FS, what a disaster he's been since.
Several politicians have been good ministers in one department then crashed and burned in another. Maybe it's no surprise: foreign affairs is a very different portfolio from home office involving very different skills.
Wouldn't it be nice if senior politicians had technical and subject matter specialisms that meant they remained in a particular department or set of departments throughout their careers and didn't forever get reshuffled or promoted into completely unrelated briefs?
Imagine for example someone who spent their whole career with the Education or Health portfolio (or shadow portfolio), and actually knew what they were talking about as a result. And aspired to the top job but that top job being cabinet minister, in the same way a research scientist in pharma aspires to being global head of R&D not CEO. It wouldn't guarantee competence of course but you'd get greater productivity and fewer handovers.
Although largely this makes me think 'who would be a minister' because no doubt thrust into my non-specialist field I'd make errors daily which random herberts on the internet would then mock.
We also learn from the article that: "A YouGov survey last September showed more than half (54 per cent) of the British public did not want to travel to outer space, while 36 per cent would like the opportunity and a further 10 per cent said they did not know."
Read that at first as, "space-minister-andrew-griffith-MARRS-sun-science-musuem"
Thought maybe he'd crashed his ministerial car into the building, or something similar.
I still struggle to see Labour winning a three figure majority given (a) Starmer isn't that popular and (b) the 2019 baseline. I still think Labour is highly likely to win a majority but a 1997 style result would I think rely on Starmer's ratings improving and/or really industrial scale anti Tory tactical voting.
Depends how you frame it.
In 2019, Boris won a hefty majority, but even then, he wasn't popular, whatever his fans tell you. Most polls had him net negative for approval;
What Boris was, was far more popular than the alternative, whatever his fans tell you.
Sunak isn't quite as despised as 2019 version Jez, but he is heading that way. And Starmer's approval isn't that far off Bozza's.
Bottom line is that there are 650 constituencies, and somebody has to win in each of them. And in many places, once you rule out the Conservatives, then the victor must come from whoever remains, however improbable.
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
Isn't that the same with postal votes in the UK?
Its the same as all votes. If you put your ballot in the ballot box on election day, then drop dead right there and then, or get hit by a bus after leaving the polling station, they don't fish your ballot back out. Once you've voted, you've voted.
One of my worst canvassing moments was knocking up on polling day, when an elderly lady answered the door remarkably quickly.
"Good afternoon!" I exclaimed cheerily. "Have you and Mr Smith had a chance to pop down to the polling station yet to vote and, if not, might we offer you a lift?"
I didn't notice until a moment too late that I'd basically been followed into the driveway by a black "private ambulance". She'd been waiting for a lift for her husband, alright, but not to the polling station.
Greater love hath no MAGA voter than he catches pneumonia for his Fuhrer
Trump's only redeeming feature is the complete lack of a filter means we get to hear his twisted thought process, which are sometimes downright hilarious.
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
Huge if true, as the saying goes.
Yes, indeed.
Anyone suggesting Jenkyns has good sense clearly has to resign due to lack of mental capacity.
He was great as FS, what a disaster he's been since.
Several politicians have been good ministers in one department then crashed and burned in another. Maybe it's no surprise: foreign affairs is a very different portfolio from home office involving very different skills.
Wouldn't it be nice if senior politicians had technical and subject matter specialisms that meant they remained in a particular department or set of departments throughout their careers and didn't forever get reshuffled or promoted into completely unrelated departments?
Imagine for example someone who spent their whole career with the Education or Health portfolio (or shadow portfolio), and actually knew what they were talking about as a result. And aspired to the top job but that top job being cabinet minister, in the same way a research scientist in pharma aspires to being global head of R&D not CEO. It wouldn't guarantee competence of course but you'd get greater productivity and fewer handovers.
Cameron's government was one of the better we've had in a very long time, in no small part due to his lack of reshuffles. People were allowed time to develop in their posts.
Unfortunately it also meant people who were terrible were not moved on though.
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
Isn't that the same with postal votes in the UK?
Its the same as all votes. If you put your ballot in the ballot box on election day, then drop dead right there and then, or get hit by a bus after leaving the polling station, they don't fish your ballot back out. Once you've voted, you've voted.
One of my worst canvassing moments was knocking up on polling day, when an elderly lady answered the door remarkably quickly.
"Good afternoon!" I exclaimed cheerily. "Have you and Mr Smith had a chance to pop down to the polling station yet to vote and, if not, might we offer you a lift?"
I didn't notice until a moment too late that I'd basically been followed into the driveway by a black "private ambulance". She'd been waiting for a lift for her husband, alright, but not to the polling station.
You gave the poor lady some much-needed comic relief.
Maybe not THAT day . . . but in the ones that followed.
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
Isn't that the same with postal votes in the UK?
Its the same as all votes. If you put your ballot in the ballot box on election day, then drop dead right there and then, or get hit by a bus after leaving the polling station, they don't fish your ballot back out. Once you've voted, you've voted.
Indeed. But the question is whether you'd consider it worthwhile if doing so caused you to drop dead.
I'm an ardent believer in democracy, but even I would struggle to go that far. Though I suppose arguably, in a very small number of cases, it would.
(Reminds me of the drama on here on referendum day of Southam Observer struggling back through hell and high water to cast his vote in Warwickshire.)
Greater love hath no MAGA voter than he catches pneumonia for his Fuhrer
Trump's only redeeming feature is the complete lack of a filter means we get to hear his twisted thought process, which are sometimes downright hilarious.
In all fairness to Trump, that was clearly a joke on his part. However much I dislike him, he does quite deliberately play on the "you'd do anything for your favourite President, wouldn't you?" thing for comic effect.
Part of the reason it is funny is the fairly large element of truth in the idea, I agree. But it isn't lack of a filter in that case - it's a quite intentional and broadly successful attempt at humour. It also has the benefit, for him, of taking the edge off what is a major character flaw by giving a sly wink at it in a way that does get a giggle.
Probably noise, but if not I'd guess the stories about him defending child-killers and terrorists would have more effect than his responsibility for the PO scandal.
I'd expect these stories to form part of a dirty tricks social media campaign at the next election, or at least are being trialled as such.
Lots of people understand that everyone deserves a fair trial, but still emotionally recoil from the idea that it is someone's job to make the best case they can for people who it turns out really did commit terrible crimes. What kind of person wants that as a career? Reminding people that Starmer then spent years prosecuting people is probably counterproductive. Conservative propagandists should stick to cases he worked on as a defence lawyer. I don't think his record as DPP is going to be worse than his predecessors or successors, and wanting to put bad guys behind bars is obviously a noble ambition even if mistakes were made. Right?
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I don't know how else to explain this to PB Tories -> the later you leave the election, the higher the chance that this kind of ELE happens.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is: No election in May Tory councillors get ploughed Leadership challenge ousts Sunak Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
Gosh I don’t know if there are actually any PB Tories left…@casino_royale was one of the last and even he is suggesting a very Labourite programme of public investment funded by wealth taxes…it’s quite discombobulating.
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Poor HYUFD - forgotten despite his stonewall defence.
Oh goodness yes, sorry HY. That’s as bad as when we go on holiday (in our camper, @TOPPING, no need to swear) and forget to find someone to feed our pet cats.
I would exile myself to ConHome but I was sent here from there in the first place for mentioning late-stage capitalism.
And did the camper run on recycled spinach leaves? No I very much doubt it did.
No but I should warn you that my hypocrisy runs far deeper than burning compressed sunlight to allow me to host a cold and grumpy family in a field.
Given that the compressed sunlight came from the Jurassic equivalent of recycled spinach leaves I hardly thinkj you need reproach yourself.
I still struggle to see Labour winning a three figure majority given (a) Starmer isn't that popular and (b) the 2019 baseline. I still think Labour is highly likely to win a majority but a 1997 style result would I think rely on Starmer's ratings improving and/or really industrial scale anti Tory tactical voting.
Depends how you frame it.
In 2019, Boris won a hefty majority, but even then, he wasn't popular, whatever his fans tell you. Most polls had him net negative for approval;
What Boris was, was far more popular than the alternative, whatever his fans tell you.
Sunak isn't quite as despised as 2019 version Jez, but he is heading that way. And Starmer's approval isn't that far off Bozza's.
Bottom line is that there are 650 constituencies, and somebody has to win in each of them. And in many places, once you rule out the Conservatives, then the victor must come from whoever remains, however improbable.
This is true. There's also a question about what constitutes 'good' and 'bad' approval ratings now. Obviously if you're down in the pits of Trussland that's very bad, but comparing Starmer to Blair is rather silly as we are in different eras.
Blair could exert a lot more control of media coverage that was read by more people for one thing. Starmer faces a much more atomised electorate and a media that's similarly broken into niches that serve that electorate. He couldn't be simultaneously popular with Corbyn fans and Sun readers if he tried.
He can, however, be the least threatening option to both.
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
Isn't that the same with postal votes in the UK?
Its the same as all votes. If you put your ballot in the ballot box on election day, then drop dead right there and then, or get hit by a bus after leaving the polling station, they don't fish your ballot back out. Once you've voted, you've voted.
One of my worst canvassing moments was knocking up on polling day, when an elderly lady answered the door remarkably quickly.
"Good afternoon!" I exclaimed cheerily. "Have you and Mr Smith had a chance to pop down to the polling station yet to vote and, if not, might we offer you a lift?"
I didn't notice until a moment too late that I'd basically been followed into the driveway by a black "private ambulance". She'd been waiting for a lift for her husband, alright, but not to the polling station.
Isam laid me £100 at 3/1 Starmer to be PM after the GE. No dispute on this.
The proposal is that this be netted against something Isam has going with RCS such that I will collect the £300 from RCS if the bet wins (which looks likely but you never know).
In August last year I suggested we either void it or you sort something out with Robert, and you replied
“Happy whatever, I mean. We can keep it or we can void it. Your suggestion is also fine by me if it's fine by rcs.“
So why would you think, five months later, that I’d think we were still on?? You agreed with both of my suggestions
That is not accurate.
Here's you on a September thread posting about how you've done a 'bad' 3/1 lay of SKS PM post-GE. Why would you do that if you'd got yourself out of it?
The fact is nobody replied to me in August. You didn't. RCS didn't. It was left hanging. There was no agreement to do anything. Hence why I'd like it resolved now. My preference in order is as follows:
1. Our bet stands as we struck it. That's the norm after all. 2. RCS takes the bet from you. But he needs to confirm that. 3. We forget it and I let you off.
If it's (3) I'd be agreeing to cancel a bet that looks almost certain to be a £300 winner. There needs to be a good reason for that.
This is complete madness. You literally said you were happy to void it.
I suggested two options and you said you were happy to do either. I didn’t say anything more because I was leaving it to you and Robert to sort out, you having agreed to what I had suggested
I mentioned it as a self deprecating joke, because I did lay 3/1 Sir Keir to be PM after the GE, and @Peter_the_Punter had been calling me a useless bettor. But you had agreed to either void it or sort it out with Robert
Actually a reasonable summation of election law(s) across USA.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
Isn't that the same with postal votes in the UK?
Its the same as all votes. If you put your ballot in the ballot box on election day, then drop dead right there and then, or get hit by a bus after leaving the polling station, they don't fish your ballot back out. Once you've voted, you've voted.
Indeed. But the question is whether you'd consider it worthwhile if doing so caused you to drop dead.
I'm an ardent believer in democracy, but even I would struggle to go that far. Though I suppose arguably, in a very small number of cases, it would.
(Reminds me of the drama on here on referendum day of Southam Observer struggling back through hell and high water to cast his vote in Warwickshire.)
While prospect of certain death would indeed be off-putting, would personally be willing to risk maybe 50-50 chance of frostbite, IF I was Iowa voter, to turn out tonight to vote AGAINST Trump.
Which means voting FOR Nikki Haley. Realizing she might just end up as DJT's VP pick.
I still struggle to see Labour winning a three figure majority given (a) Starmer isn't that popular and (b) the 2019 baseline. I still think Labour is highly likely to win a majority but a 1997 style result would I think rely on Starmer's ratings improving and/or really industrial scale anti Tory tactical voting.
Depends how you frame it.
In 2019, Boris won a hefty majority, but even then, he wasn't popular, whatever his fans tell you. Most polls had him net negative for approval;
What Boris was, was far more popular than the alternative, whatever his fans tell you.
Sunak isn't quite as despised as 2019 version Jez, but he is heading that way. And Starmer's approval isn't that far off Bozza's.
Bottom line is that there are 650 constituencies, and somebody has to win in each of them. And in many places, once you rule out the Conservatives, then the victor must come from whoever remains, however improbable.
The 81 predictions in the BenPointer competition range from Lab maj 254 to Tory maj of 20.
Although this range does not in fact reach the Labour highs rendered thinkable by some of the polling + tactical voting etc, (which is roughly a 300 majority) on the whole I think they fairly reflect the range of realistic outcomes. It's all a bit open really.
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
Huge if true, as the saying goes.
Yes, indeed.
Anyone suggesting Jenkyns has good sense clearly has to resign due to lack of mental capacity.
He was great as FS, what a disaster he's been since.
Cleverley has good stuff, but it seems to come with the sort of behaviour characteristic of careless and indifferent distain. Boris in parvo
Isam laid me £100 at 3/1 Starmer to be PM after the GE. No dispute on this.
The proposal is that this be netted against something Isam has going with RCS such that I will collect the £300 from RCS if the bet wins (which looks likely but you never know).
This is why I don't accept bets here. I know Betfair can be a pain on occasion, but the rules are usually quite clear. Here you're taking pseudonymous posters on trust, and assuming that you're of the same mind on what you've agreed.
Not for me.
That's a pretty shitty view of the people you spend a good amount of your day with.
I trust everyone here. I have had (and lost) a bet with @isam and all was paid and I had no doubt he would have paid had I won.
I've never bet with @kinabalu but have no doubt if we were to bet he would pay me (it goes without saying that I would win whatever bet we struck).
Oh I trust most everyone here - but I also trust them to disagree at pretty well every opportunity, and to be convinced that they are right (as I usually am).
Quibbling over the terms of a bet with no independent arbiter ?
The same Hizb ut-Tahrir that was due to be proscribed by the Blair and Cameron governments who announced it but did not follow up.
Sounds like Starmers fault to me.
Funny you should say that, he represented them in court when they were proscribed in Germany
Starmer acted for extremist Islamist group in bid to overturn ban Labour leader applied to European Court of Human Rights to reverse Germany's prohibition of Hizb ut-Tahrir
Are Americans wimps? Some are, some aren't. And many of us are wimps if the weather is not what we became accustomed to, growing up. I grew up on the east side of the Cascades so cold weather is no big deal for me. But I don't do very well in hot and humid places.
And I have good cold weather gear, thanks to cross country skiing.
I'm a bit surprised, John, that in so valiantly defending Ed Davey over the Post Office, you don't tell your almost 300,000 followers that you're currently trying to become a Lib Dem MP. How did the hustings for the Hamble Valley seat go last Wednesday? Quite well, I hear.
The same Hizb ut-Tahrir that was due to be proscribed by the Blair and Cameron governments who announced it but did not follow up.
Sounds like Starmers fault to me.
Funny you should say that, he represented them in court when they were proscribed in Germany
Starmer acted for extremist Islamist group in bid to overturn ban Labour leader applied to European Court of Human Rights to reverse Germany's prohibition of Hizb ut-Tahrir
Comments
Fred West never made it to trial.
Labour leads by 19%.
Westminster Voting Intention (14 January):
Labour 44% (+1)
Conservative 25% (-2)
Reform UK 11% (–)
Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 7 January
https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1746940309857288539?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
Of course that critter also meant no (lasting) harm!
NEW: The Home Secretary retweeted a post by David Bannerman calling on MPs to "show the guts and good sense of Andrea Jenkyns" and send in letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak. He has since un-retweeted the post
/BJO
I guess @isam is left but @kinabalu has taken him off the pitch with a curveball about an old bet.
Starmer leads Sunak by 10%.
At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (14 January)
Keir Starmer 41% (-4)
Rishi Sunak 31% (+1)
Changes +/- 7 January
https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1746942898640204242?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
Sunak is almost the precise opposite.
https://www.sci.news/paleontology/science-early-apes-01793.html
St Bridget Catholic Church, Bluffton = 5 precincts
St. John's Lutheran Church, Decorah = 5
Stone Ridge Community Church, Decorah = 2
VFW [Veterans of Foreign Wars] Post 1977, Decorah = 3
Christian Life Center, Decorah = 4
Ossian Community Center, Ossian = 3
Spillville Public Library, Spillville = 3
Ridgeway Community Center, Ridgeway = 2
Note that in some cases, precincts are combined into single caucus meeting.
Source https://www.iowagop.org/2024_caucus_locations
Isn't it ironic...
He's a weak campaigner, can't turn phrases, *and* is a terrible administrator.
Wouldn't accuse him of being lazy, to be fair.
Jury's out on the ethics.
I would exile myself to ConHome but I was sent here from there in the first place for mentioning late-stage capitalism.
(Though Lord Woolton might actually have ticked that box?)
We seem to have created a new profession of 'Director', selection by knowing another director, and where most of the directors spread themselves across as many directorships as possible, receiving a nice salary for a few days work a month at each.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-67973518
Believing somehow, in some way, as in 2019, Farage and Tice will ride over the hill and save them is probably their last card short of huge unsustainable tax cuts in the spring.
Though I do think that it could be a self fulfilling prophecy and another leader could simply make them plummet even further.
Also - who?
Johnson isn’t in the Commons. Farage isn’t in the party or the Commons. Penny is apparently too woke for them (and I like her a lot, but I’m not sure I credit her with the steel she’d need to turn it around). Suella is pretty much discredited. Kemi is having a bit of a problem with the post. Dave is in the Lords. Cleverley has the issue with the offensive comments. Hunt is too managerial. And they surely can’t go back to Liz Bloody Truss.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1746473537764790518?t=-6bX8LKTqPFgh8JTszQf8Q&s=19
- attributed to Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord 1933; possibly apocryphal
And at least one of them actually snuffed it and of the other three two were more or less superannuated.
Starmer leads Sunak on ALL 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:
Cares about people like me (40% | 23%)
Understands the problems afflicting the UK (42% | 27%)
Is a strong leader (37% | 27%)
Can build a strong economy (39% | 31%)
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1746945408931078270
Anyone suggesting Jenkyns has good sense clearly has to resign due to lack of mental capacity.
He was great as FS, what a disaster he's been since.
For example, if you are a registered voter in WA State, and return your voted ballot (with required signature) the next day . . . then get run over by a bus the following morning . . . your vote remains valid (provided your signature matches one on file) and your vote will be counted.
Bit of a problem however, IF there is (or rather was?) signature mismatch OR you forgot to sign.
https://inews.co.uk/news/lineker-israel-tweet-bbc-euros-coverage-2854987?ito=twitter_share_article-top
Lineker might have a bit of an issue this time as this is about football.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/15/space-minister-andrew-griffith-mars-sun-science-museum/
Although largely this makes me think 'who would be a minister' because no doubt thrust into my non-specialist field I'd make errors daily which random herberts on the internet would then mock.
We also learn from the article that:
"A YouGov survey last September showed more than half (54 per cent) of the British public
did not want to travel to outer space, while 36 per cent would like the opportunity and a
further 10 per cent said they did not know."
The Conservative 2019 vote (based on Likelihood to Vote and 70% are either 4 or 5 on a scale where 5 is certain to vote so expectations of a lower turnout mat not be entirely justified) splits 50% Conservative, 17% Don't Know, 15% Reform and 14% Labour.
Do we have any markets? His daughter might be a candidate, or Kari Lake.
Wouldn't it be nice if senior politicians had technical and subject matter specialisms that meant they remained in a particular department or set of departments throughout their careers and didn't forever get reshuffled or promoted into completely unrelated briefs?
Imagine for example someone who spent their whole career with the Education or Health portfolio (or shadow portfolio), and actually knew what they were talking about as a result. And aspired to the top job but that top job being cabinet minister, in the same way a research scientist in pharma aspires to being global head of R&D not CEO. It wouldn't guarantee competence of course but you'd get greater productivity and fewer handovers.
Thought maybe he'd crashed his ministerial car into the building, or something similar.
In 2019, Boris won a hefty majority, but even then, he wasn't popular, whatever his fans tell you. Most polls had him net negative for approval;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
What Boris was, was far more popular than the alternative, whatever his fans tell you.
Sunak isn't quite as despised as 2019 version Jez, but he is heading that way. And Starmer's approval isn't that far off Bozza's.
Bottom line is that there are 650 constituencies, and somebody has to win in each of them. And in many places, once you rule out the Conservatives, then the victor must come from whoever remains, however improbable.
"Good afternoon!" I exclaimed cheerily. "Have you and Mr Smith had a chance to pop down to the polling station yet to vote and, if not, might we offer you a lift?"
I didn't notice until a moment too late that I'd basically been followed into the driveway by a black "private ambulance". She'd been waiting for a lift for her husband, alright, but not to the polling station.
Unfortunately it also meant people who were terrible were not moved on though.
Maybe not THAT day . . . but in the ones that followed.
I'm an ardent believer in democracy, but even I would struggle to go that far.
Though I suppose arguably, in a very small number of cases, it would.
(Reminds me of the drama on here on referendum day of Southam Observer struggling back through hell and high water to cast his vote in Warwickshire.)
Part of the reason it is funny is the fairly large element of truth in the idea, I agree. But it isn't lack of a filter in that case - it's a quite intentional and broadly successful attempt at humour. It also has the benefit, for him, of taking the edge off what is a major character flaw by giving a sly wink at it in a way that does get a giggle.
Blair could exert a lot more control of media coverage that was read by more people for one thing. Starmer faces a much more atomised electorate and a media that's similarly broken into niches that serve that electorate. He couldn't be simultaneously popular with Corbyn fans and Sun readers if he tried.
He can, however, be the least threatening option to both.
I suggested two options and you said you were happy to do either. I didn’t say anything more because I was leaving it to you and Robert to sort out, you having agreed to what I had suggested
I mentioned it as a self deprecating joke, because I did lay 3/1 Sir Keir to be PM after the GE, and @Peter_the_Punter had been calling me a useless bettor. But you had agreed to either void it or sort it out with Robert
Which means voting FOR Nikki Haley. Realizing she might just end up as DJT's VP pick.
However, this is now, not (yet) then.
French education minister faces backlash after sending three sons to elite private school
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/15/castra-french-education-minister-private-state-schools-sons/
https://twitter.com/dhookstead/status/1746316300836598245
Although this range does not in fact reach the Labour highs rendered thinkable by some of the polling + tactical voting etc, (which is roughly a 300 majority) on the whole I think they fairly reflect the range of realistic outcomes. It's all a bit open really.
Quibbling over the terms of a bet with no independent arbiter ?
Not for me. YMMV
The Rwanda Bill.
I have signed the Cash & Jenrick amendments.
I will vote for them.
https://twitter.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1746961966764028269
Sadiq was the Nation of Islam lawyer when they appealed Louis Farrakhan's ban from the UK
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/mar/31/humanrights.islam?CMP=gu_com
I haven’t seen Jerry Jones this upset since they passed the Civil Rights Act
https://twitter.com/sammorril/status/1746663919454658847
And I have good cold weather gear, thanks to cross country skiing.
For what it is worth, I have been out -- briefly -- in weather that was -30 degrees Fahrenheit. (For comparison, here are the UK records: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_weather_records
(It was an interesting experience. What I remember most about it was that, when I took a deep breath, my lungs hurt.)
https://twitter.com/WillHayCardiff/status/1746942241950560337
I'm a bit surprised, John, that in so valiantly defending Ed Davey over the Post Office, you don't tell your almost 300,000 followers that you're currently trying to become a Lib Dem MP.
How did the hustings for the Hamble Valley seat go last Wednesday? Quite well, I hear.
https://x.com/michaellcrick/status/1746930120571400514?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I guess you ony want representation for people you like/agree with?
I bet you would have argued against representation for the subpostmasters, the Birmingham Six, and Stefan Kizko.
But yes, Rishi will look even more pathetic if he doesn't sack him.
Reasonable approximation may be, share of each of Iowa's 99 counties of total 2020 statewide vote for Donald Trump
Top Ten counties below collectively accounted for 42.8%
Polk (Des Moines) 106,800 11.9%
Linn (Cedar Rapids) 53,364 5.9%
Scott (Davenport) 43,683 4.9%
Black Hawk (Waterloo) 29,640 3.3%
Dallas (W Des Moines) 27,987 3.1%
Dubuque (Dubuque) 27,214 3.0%
Pottawattamie (Council Bluffs) 26,247 2.9%
Woodbury (Sioux City) 25,736 2.9%
Johnson (Iowa City) 22,925 2.6%
Story (Ames) 20,340 2.3%
Addendum - Note that Biden 2020 far more concentrated, same 10 counties = 63.0%