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Conflicts of interest – politicalbetting.com
Conflicts of interest – politicalbetting.com
At the heart of most scandals is a conflict of interest, often more than one, which has been allowed to develop, not mitigated or managed, or simply ignored. Being able to recognise these is essential to good public administration. It is essential to good legislation (a header could be written about the policy corruption inherent in governments funding lobby groups to promote policies the government wants, then consulting with only these groups who, unsurprisingly, agree wholeheartedly with the policies suggested. Scotland seems peculiarly prone to this form of cronyism.)
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Perhaps I should have followed the Post Office example then again there is an absolute certainty that I would not do well in prison.
https://twitter.com/OxfordClarion/status/1745760429735825635
Have they been elsewhere reported so clearly ?
The overlaps between Post Office, CPS and Ministry of Justice are disturbing.
Which reminds me I have to update our whistleblower policies and procedure.
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/YouGov_MRP_January_2024_results.csv
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67984295
The same Hizb ut-Tahrir that was due to be proscribed by the Blair and Cameron governments who announced it but did not follow up.
The Post Office scandal has been public knowledge, one way or another, for at least a decade. How were these appointments allowed ?
Fat lot of use that seems to have been.
Plenty of stuff - and guff - in media this MLK Day re: tonight's Iowa Republican precinct caucuses; best wait for tonight's results & etc.
In the meantime . . .
New York Times ($) - In Race to Replace George Santos, Financial Questions Re-emerge
Mazi Pilip, the Republican candidate running in New York’s Third District, drew scrutiny after her initial financial disclosure was missing required information.
The Republican nominee in a special House election to replace George Santos in New York provided a hazy glimpse into her personal finances this week, submitting a sworn financial statement to Congress that prompted questions and led her to amend the filing.
The little-known candidate, Mazi Pilip, reported between $1 million and $5.2 million in assets, largely comprising her husband’s medical practice and Bitcoin investments. In an unusual disclosure, she said the couple owed and later repaid as much as $250,000 to the I.R.S. last year.
But the initial financial report Ms. Pilip filed with the House Ethics Committee on Wednesday appeared to be missing other important required information, including whether the assets were owned solely by herself or her husband, Dr. Adalbert Pilip, or whether they were owned jointly.
And despite making past statements that she stopped working there in 2021 when she ran for the Nassau County Legislature, Ms. Pilip reported receiving a $50,000 salary from the family medical practice in 2022 and 2023.
The inconsistencies seemed nowhere near the level of Mr. Santos’s widespread misstatements, which prompted federal prosecutors to charge him with falsifying congressional records before he was expelled. But after inquiries from The New York Times, Ms. Pilip materially amended the statement on Friday.
The updated paperwork disclosed for the first time that she had a legislative pension; identified her husband as the sole owner of the medical practice, New York Comprehensive Medical Care; and disclosed previously unreported investments and liabilities, including at least $50,000 in medical school loans for Dr. Pilip.
Ms. Pilip also revised her earned income, reporting that she had earned far less from the medical practice: $13,472 in 2022 and nothing in 2023. (She earned $80,000 as a local lawmaker.)
Her campaign played down the initial omissions as innocent mistakes by a team working on an abbreviated schedule before next month’s special election. . . .
Ethics experts said the changes warranted further study. All House candidates must file disclosure forms annually, attesting that the information is “true, complete and correct to the best of my knowledge and belief” at risk of prosecution.
“The canary in the mine can be discrepancies on their financial disclosure statements,” said Kedric Payne, the senior director of ethics at the Campaign Legal Center. . . .
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A pinnacle in that regard was surely met in the context of the Expert Advisory Group on Ending Conversion Practices who are proposing that such practices should be banned in Scotland. Wings over Scotland, in an excellent piece of research, showed that all 15 of the members of this expert committee were activists opposed to such practices and a majority were employed by or members of organisations funded largely by the Scottish Government.
They are now trying to hide who was on the committee. I find this surprising, surely the Scottish Government is well beyond embarrassment, but even they perhaps have some sense of shame:
https://wingsoverscotland.com/down-the-memory-hole-again/
It's well worth a read, it goes beyond funny.
NYT ($) - ‘Would a Call From Tammy Help?’ Pressure Grows in Race to Oust Menendez
In a series of calls, a person in contact with the Senate campaign of Gov. Philip Murphy’s wife pressured a student Democratic group not to endorse her chief rival in the New Jersey race.
The College Democrats of New Jersey were preparing to make an endorsement in one of the country’s most closely watched U.S. Senate primaries when calls began to come in from someone in touch with the campaign of Tammy Murphy, the presumptive front-runner and the wife of the state’s governor.
The caller, a female college student who works as a youth coordinator for the Democratic State Committee, wanted to know what Ms. Murphy’s campaign could do to block the group from endorsing Ms. Murphy’s main rival, Representative Andy Kim.
“Would a call from Tammy help?” the woman said she asked . . .
Then, in a series of calls over the next two hours, the pressure from the caller, Keely Magee, escalated to warnings — about funding and future job prospects for leaders of the College Democrats, according to several people involved in the discussions and a recording of one call.
In an interview, Ms. Magee said the Murphy campaign had not asked her to pressure the group on its behalf. But she acknowledged being aware that members of Ms. Murphy’s campaign staff “wanted to do something to prevent the endorsement,” and said she was receiving text messages from a Murphy campaign consultant, Dave Parano. . . .
The effort to stop the endorsement failed. On Wednesday, both the College Democrats of America and the New Jersey chapter issued full-throated endorsements of Mr. Kim, a South Jersey Democrat running against Ms. Murphy for the chance to oust Senator Bob Menendez.
The episode offered a rare, behind-the-scenes look at the high-stakes political battle playing out as New Jersey’s first lady, a first-time candidate, struggles to gain grass-roots traction in her bid to unseat Mr. Menendez, who faces federal bribery charges.
With support from her husband, Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a second-term Democrat, Ms. Murphy has been endorsed by many of the state’s most powerful Democrats and has raised a record amount of contributions in her campaign’s first six weeks. Yet several polls suggest that she continues to trail Mr. Kim by a wide margin. . . .
SSI - Typical New Jersey political hack tactics, of kind that Woodrow Wilson railed against - after snookering & taking advantage of the hacks - back circa 1910.
Gov. Murphy and his wife are a very powerful couple. He is gov of state with one of the most powerful state executives in the nation; she is a top NJ Democratic fundraiser. So far they've parlayed this into endorsements from equally powerful local county political power brokers, this ensuring Mrs Murphy poll position on the 2024 NJ Democratic primary ballot, thanks to Garden State's unique - and inherently corrupt - county ticket system.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita
The one relating to Tim Parker and his role in charge of HM Courts and Tribunals has been known about for a while. Though nothing was done.
A letter to the CPS is needed, no. Perhaps even to the A-G's office, to whom the CPS reports. They even have a whistleblowing hotline - 0203 334 0320 and email - fraud_reporting@justice.gov.uk. In case anyone has a spare few minutes.
The Business Department should be made aware of course but since the Business Secretary has been AWOL on something for which her department is responsible, preferring instead to plot and opine on the Rwanda Bill, something for which she is not responsible, that would almost certainly be a total waste of time.
Usefully measuring what is the share of CO2 generation allocated to domestic consumption beyond that is problematic.
A bit late to the party, but Lord Robert Hayward on LBC condemning the Telegraph interpretation of the YouGov poll. He stated YouGov have caveated the poll reporting because the Telegraph have, he suggested, manipulated the evidence to undermine Rishi.
All matters which an Audit and Risk Committee ought to be interested in.
But maybe at the Post Office this committee just opines on biscuits or the choice of photo for the annual calendar. Who can say.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/declaration-and-management-of-outside-interests-in-the-civil-service/declaration-and-management-of-outside-interests-in-the-civil-service
...All remunerated outside employment, work and appointments should be declared, whether or not considered relevant and caught by the requirement in paragraph 4.3.4 of the Civil Service Management Code (below). Where work is not directly remunerated but may generate financial advantage for third parties, this should also be declared.
Where these roles might affect their work either directly or indirectly, line manager approval should be sought to either continue this work or before taking up any outside work from the Civil Service, in line with the requirements in paragraph 4.3.4 of the Civil Service Management Code. Line managers need to apply the principles contained in the Business Appointment Rules in deciding whether the outside employment can continue / be taken up[footnote 5]. Specific consideration should be given to whether the role could be said to overlap with or draw on the knowledge or skills used in their civil service roles as this will likely present a conflict of interest. Individuals must tell their manager immediately of any changes in circumstances that may affect the permission they have been given. If the individual moves jobs within the civil service, they must tell their new line manager about their additional employment and seek their approval. Department’s declaration of interest forms should provide the ability to record the consideration and approval. Any changes to the outside role, if agreed, should also be regularly considered...
Starmer acted for extremist Islamist group in bid to overturn ban
Labour leader applied to European Court of Human Rights to reverse Germany's prohibition of Hizb ut-Tahrir
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/16/keir-starmer-represented-extremist-islamist-group/
You pretend to care about the poor in this country. Your words repeatedly indicate otherwise.
There's also the fact - which appears to sail merrily through your brain - that this is a massive escalation of the conflict.
Guys, can we resolve this betting issue please?
Isam laid me £100 at 3/1 Starmer to be PM after the GE. No dispute on this.
The proposal is that this be netted against something Isam has going with RCS such that I will collect the £300 from RCS if the bet wins (which looks likely but you never know).
The CPS has a Code of Condict which I have reviewed. I can find in it no specific requirement to seek approval for outside business interests. It would not surprise me at all to learn that the CPS does not know about this.
There are also the 7 Nolan Principles of Public Life. The second one - Integrity - says this:
"Holders of public office must avoid placing themselves under any obligation to people or organisations that might try inappropriately to influence them in their work."
You'd have thought this might cause the Mr Jeffreys of this world to think for a moment.
And it won't count against our carbon emissions?
Simply unacceptable, and not something any contributor to this site would ever engage in.
Can't you bung me a juicy contract, there's a good chap.
I think this complies with all the procurement rules, no,
replied
“Happy whatever, I mean. We can keep it or we can void it. Your suggestion is also fine by me if it's fine by rcs.“
So why would you think, five months later, that I’d think we were still on?? You agreed with both of my suggestions
Let us not forget the internal threat from Trump, whose foreign policy is supremely isolationist if not actively in support of hard right, anti-democratic regimes.
I am not quite so pessimistic, but the Houthis seem to have just effectively closed the Arabian Sea to mercantile traffic.
are there any professional gamblers on the Gambling Commission?
However, that Telegraph spun it to imply, “if every single Reform voter switched to Tory’s Labour won’t get a majority and Tory’s will have 255 seats, so why not give those voters exactly what they want and toughen up this weeks courts overriding bill and properly protect our borders” - that’s hardly the most underhand bit of newspaper spin we have ever seen.
Rishi won’t be ousted this late on - everyone inside and outside the Tory party are just waiting for the election now. Those eager to take control of the party leadership off Rishi are likely just as keen on an early election as Labour PBers. In fact I read a piece of analysis, I think from Daniel Finkelstein, that waiting till the last possible moment gave John Major an even worse result than he would have got without pushing everybody’s patience, so there’s probably many more Tories wanting a General Election, than removal of Sunak.
However, there needs to be a heir apparent or king-over-the-water, and there doesn’t appear to be one.
The nearest thing the Tories have is the shabby remains of Boris Johnson, who of course is not an MP.
BTW, are you aware, this is a political betting site?
(Here are some estimates:
"Hundreds to thousands killed (humanitarian organizations), 25,000 (Houthi sources)[41]
2,000 Sa'dah residents handicapped[42]
250,000 Yemenis displaced[43]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_insurgency
I have no idea how accurate those estimates are.)
Even now, the Houthis only conrol part of Yemen. Perhaps they should seek a permanent peace by advocating a "two-state" solution.
I await with interest, but not bated breath, for their defenders to criticize that death toll.
Nottingham Forest and Everton could face points deduction after Premier League charges
Clubs charged with breach of profit and sustainability rules
Everton already docked 10 points but this is second charge
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/jan/15/premier-league-charge-nottingham-forest-everton
@Dylan_Difford
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to:
Con 69 (-100 on MRP)
Lab 463 (+78)
LD 70 (+22)
Nat 28
Grn 1
So ought to be be subject to the management code I excerpted above.
Sticking with Richi guarantees eviction. Why not roll the dice?
If they had known that ousting BoZo would lead to Truss, perhaps some would have stayed their hand, and yet, he still needed to go...
To give one example, he insisted - and I think still insists - that the UK will inevitably come begging for an agriculture deal with the US because it can’t feed itself securely now that it’s left the single market.
However, clearly the US’s *relative* decline against the rest of the world, and its energy independence, are important factors. But one also wants to add social media, globalisation-driven wage stagnation, and hyper-financialisation.
I know Betfair can be a pain on occasion, but the rules are usually quite clear.
Here you're taking pseudonymous posters on trust, and assuming that you're of the same mind on what you've agreed.
Not for me.
2. Come to some mind-bendingly insightful conclusion about the issue.
3. Post that conclusion so we can all
ignore what you say as usualbenefit from your analysis.Unless these were different breaches, it sounds odd.
WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35
below zero.
* WHERE...All of central Iowa.
* WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause
frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.
Though it’s all forgiven as by replying to your post I’ve seen how to do a strike through, which brings me great pleasure.
Can you imagine the fun if the summer is:
No election in May
Tory councillors get ploughed
Leadership challenge ousts Sunak
Tories split into two sections, with the dominant right wing families infighting before uniting around some wazzock
New PM Wazzock asks for time to implement policies of this "new government"
69 will feel ambitious. EDIT - I am married. It already does.
The Saudis have been bombing them with western supplied bombs for seven years, to little effect other than a lot of casualties. They're now talking to them.
Unless you're suggesting we do an Iraq reprise ?
NY Times blog
Just put on your big coat and you’ll be fine.
If either were in the Champions League places, they would have no risk of being booted out.
Below 30%, unless your vote is well concentrated, FTFP is not your friend. A reminder that 26% of the vote got the Lib/SDP Alliance just 23 seats in 1983.
Fuck offYou're welcome.I trust everyone here. I have had (and lost) a bet with @isam and all was paid and I had no doubt he would have paid had I won.
I've never bet with @kinabalu but have no doubt if we were to bet he would pay me (it goes without saying that I would win whatever bet we struck).
One BIG difference between New Hampshire primary and Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, is absentee voting.
NH Secretary of State webpage (note last sentence below):
New Hampshire voters may vote by absentee ballot for specific reasons.
The reasons include; being absent from the voter’s city or town, a religious observance, disability or illness, and employment commitments (including caregiving) during the entire time the polls are open. Absentee ballots may also be available when a weather emergency impacts an election.
https://www.sos.nh.gov/elections/absentee-ballots
This relates to a period which covers seasons 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23. It therefore includes financial periods (2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22) for which the Club has already received a 10-point sanction.
Note that Iowa has 99. With each having at least one caucus meeting location (generally with more than one precinct caucusing there) counties with larger populations have multiple locations, so hundreds across the state. For process that starts (officially) everywhere at 7pm and last say 2-3 hours.
https://www.iowagop.org/2024_caucus_locations
As to your second question, if your (or somebody else's) ass temperature is -35 degrees (Celsius or Fahrenheit) any embarrassment suffered with medical personal see your less-than-pristine skivvies, is the LEAST of your problems.
To pass the current years test, it looks at the last 3 sets of accounts (date adjusted rather than FY year end).
So it is a "new" test each season, but 2/3 of the inputs are the same as the previous season.
I’d like to put myself forward to run the Risk of Risk On The Risk Committee for the CPS & the Post Office.
I’m in a reasonable mood. So I’ll do it for £100K for 1 day a month, and GCMG. That I take on no Risk for running the Risk of Risk is a given.
In the publication formerly nicknamed "the Gray Lady" by old-school media-mavens, story today about difference between "low temperature emergency" in Duluth, Minnesota and Dallas, Texas.
Approximately 30-40 degrees Fahrenheit or thereabouts.
Here's you on a September thread posting about how you've done a 'bad' 3/1 lay of SKS PM post-GE. Why would you do that if you'd got yourself out of it?
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4546501#Comment_4546501
The fact is nobody replied to me in August. You didn't. RCS didn't. It was left hanging. There was no agreement to do anything. Hence why I'd like it resolved now. My preference in order is as follows:
1. Our bet stands as we struck it. That's the norm after all.
2. RCS takes the bet from you. But he needs to confirm that.
3. We forget it and I let you off.
If it's (3) I'd be agreeing to cancel a bet that looks almost certain to be a £300 winner. There needs to be a good reason for that.
Let's hope the heat of PB keeps us all warm on what's going to be a jolly cold night though not as severe as Iowa where it's going to be -35 (Centigrade or Fahrenheit? First one, then the other would be my riposte).
The actual VI of the YouGov/MRP is Labour 39.5%, Conservative 26%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Reform 9% and Green 7%. A 12% Conservative lead in December 2019 is a 13.5% Labour lead in January 2024 so that's a 12.75% swing with the Conservative to Liberal Democrat swing (a 33-point gap cut to a 13.5-point gap) is just shy of 10%.
Most constituencies have their quirks and neither applying UNS nor factoring in tactical voting is likely to tell the complete story. The Clacton poll (without Farage) had a huge swing from Conservative to Labour and there will be considerable variations across England (let alone Wales and Scotland).
There will be some areas where the swing to Labour is much lower than the "national average" and others where it is much higher. From what little evidence we have, the larger the Conservative majority the larger the swing - this may help the Conservatives retain more seats even on a lower percentage as their vote becomes more efficient yet there are clear islands of Conservative strength - Dudley, Walsall, Dartford to name but three.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today
This article also contradicts some of the assumptions built into the Telegraph reporting especially concerning the Reform vote.