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From apotheosis to arrest – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    Poulter said:

    Starmer lucky? I'd say Sunak was lucky - first managing to marry into the billionaire bracket, then dropping into Number 10 after he lost a leadership vote but, whaddayaknow, to an opponent who turned out to be the most disastrously incompetent PM anyone can remember.

    Sadly, he has now eclipsed that record.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Wales is, in a way, Labour’s biggest achilles heel.
    Place has been a shit-show since forever, and there appears no desire amongst the Welsh ruling class (nor the Welsh at large, tbh) to address it.

    https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1741144333036757303?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    Beavers have taken over from Big Oil as the bad boys of climate change.

    According to the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/02/global-heating-beavers-alaska-northern-canada
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,364
    edited January 3

    Wilson said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    So Amazon Prime video is now introducing adverts unless you agree to pay extra….

    If you pay extra, do you get Amazon Prime Prime?
    This reminds me of what Starbucks call their smallest size coffee. "Tall".

    I've always been infuriated by that. So much so that I refuse to acknowledge it. If for some reason I find myself in Starbucks (which sometimes despite best efforts I do) I will make a point to freight my coffee order with "your smallest size" please.
    Standard practice. At McDonalds when I worked there you always asked if customers wanted a large this, that, or the other. There was no small, just medium or large.
    Although there are small and medium options there (eg on the chips) even if the staff are trained to steer you away from them. And on the coffee they describe their smallest as "regular" which is not a complete lie. But this thing of Starbucks, calling their actual smallest available coffee "tall" is just gratuitous mendacity as far as I can see. If they have a good reason for it I'm all ears but I bet they haven't.
    "Tall" used to be the second smallest size and there was a "small", but when they added "venti", they didn't want too many size options and "small" got dropped.
    Starbucks still sells "short" drinks, they're just not listed on the menu. I always have a "short latte".
    Keen to roadtest this but I'm skeptical. Only celebs can usually order off menu.
    It works. Short filter for me, on the rare occasions there isn't a better place nearby...
    I too will avoid Starbucks.

    But there are times when it is the best - or only - option.

    Small Airports in the US, for example. There Starbucks is often the best chance of getting a coffee that isn't flavoured in some weird and deeply unpleasant way.
    The other thing with Starbucks is that if you have to, exploit them. Make lengthy use of their facility. You're paying silly money to support their exciting tax arrangements and twatty naming of product. So get best value by staying a long time.
    You’re not really paying for the coffee, you’re primarily paying for somewhere reasonably comfortable to sit, with wifi, that they’re happy to let you use for at least an hour.
    I could understand that, it is people getting takeaways that seems extraordinary to me. Paper cup, same price, and not even very nice coffee.
    That to me is the definition of frivolous spending. Do that 5 days a week and the cost is more than a sky subscription
    There is a coffee shop on the ground floor of our office building. I see people walking in to the office with a cup in their hand, despite the presence of two bean to cup machines in our office that are free to use.

    Not only are they pissing their money away, they are creating rubbish with unnecessary disposable cups.
    That is madness. My work has free tea and coffee and I don't drink coffee anyway, it is the devil's work, so I spend no money in Starbucks.
    Coffee is awful. And also economically unsound. It causes a Costa living crisis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited January 3
    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    Beavers have taken over from Big Oil as the bad boys of climate change.

    According to the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/02/global-heating-beavers-alaska-northern-canada

    And they just knaw mature trees away and it's all OK because it's 'nature'. Shoot the little blighters I say.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589

    Beavers have taken over from Big Oil as the bad boys of climate change.

    According to the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/02/global-heating-beavers-alaska-northern-canada

    Have Ealing council been warned ?

    https://www.wildlondon.org.uk/news/beavers-have-been-returned-west-london-first-time-400-years
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    DougSeal said:

    New Year in Bergamo


    Needs a drink for scale.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    From what I remember from reading on PB, these sort of hypothetical polls aren't that accurate
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,393

    Beavers have taken over from Big Oil as the bad boys of climate change.

    According to the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/02/global-heating-beavers-alaska-northern-canada

    And they just knaw mature trees away and it's all OK because it's 'nature'. Shoot the little blighters I say.
    A few weeks ago I saw what looked like a dead beaver in the middle of Warminster (near where the river enters the main park). Assumed it was something else that just looked like a beaver, but turned out it was. Apparently they are in Somerset so presumably are spreading now. Natural predators seem rare (too big for foxes, I think, maybe a determined badger?). Somewhat like the explosion of Red Kites in recent years, I foresee a beaver explosion. (Stop sniggering at the back).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    Beavers have taken over from Big Oil as the bad boys of climate change.

    According to the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/02/global-heating-beavers-alaska-northern-canada

    And they just knaw mature trees away and it's all OK because it's 'nature'. Shoot the little blighters I say.
    A few weeks ago I saw what looked like a dead beaver in the middle of Warminster (near where the river enters the main park). Assumed it was something else that just looked like a beaver, but turned out it was. Apparently they are in Somerset so presumably are spreading now. Natural predators seem rare (too big for foxes, I think, maybe a determined badger?). Somewhat like the explosion of Red Kites in recent years, I foresee a beaver explosion. (Stop sniggering at the back).
    My uncle lives in Warminster, I will tell him to keep an eye out for the badgers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    CatMan said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    From what I remember from reading on PB, these sort of hypothetical polls aren't that accurate
    They were for a Boris led Tories pre 2019
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Run that past me again….?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 3
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Penddu2 said:

    I never understood why call a bucket of coffee a Venti....until one of my American colleagues explained. Going back to World War 2 - American soldiers in Italy always complained that their coffees (espresso) were too small and asked for water to be added - hence Americano coffee.

    Starbucks then followed American Italian traditions and invented the Grande, or large.

    The biggest large - a Venti then refers to 20 ounces. I had no idea how much that was so had to look it up - a Pint. That I understand, even though I dont use pints for anything except beer.

    Lost on me and most Europeans.

    Even the Brexity gammons dont get it - because while they yearn for ounces, fathoms and groats - they dont speak forrin...

    Probably explains why American coffee is often reckoned to be weak. You can buy a venti Flat White, of all things, which if it were made to the correct proportions, should contain more than 6 espresso shots.
    In Louisiana circa 1975 locals used to call standard American coffee of that day, "Yankee dishwater".
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513

    So, a vital question for PB's brains trust.

    We all know that pineapple on pizza is a food of the Gods. I've just made my son a pizza that used barbecue sauce rather than tomato sauce. Where does this rank in PB's dream foods?

    And can a pizza without tomato sue be called a pizza?

    IIRC tomatos are NOT traditional to traditional made-in-Napoli pizza? (Cyclefree knows for sure!)
    Well, my local Italian restaurant does a "Pizza Napolitano" which does not contain cheese.
    Olives, capers and anchovies on an extra-tomato-ey base.
    Sadly, they stopped offering it as a takeaway option - only for sit-in now.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The inimitable Ravi Shastri describing India’s collapse in a way only he can.

    https://x.com/henrymoeranbbc/status/1742552236092215784?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    All that I can say is that its a good thing for Luke that he didn't arrive on a dinghy.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,393
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    All that I can say is that its a good thing for Luke that he didn't arrive on a dinghy.
    I admire him for adopting the fitness regime needed for elite darts at such a young age.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,241
    IanB2 said:

    So, a vital question for PB's brains trust.

    We all know that pineapple on pizza is a food of the Gods. I've just made my son a pizza that used barbecue sauce rather than tomato sauce. Where does this rank in PB's dream foods?

    And can a pizza without tomato sue be called a pizza?

    It’s known as a pizza bianca

    I’ve had it in Italy - what to the purists say about it, though?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    CatMan said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    From what I remember from reading on PB, these sort of hypothetical polls aren't that accurate
    Indeed, this magnificent thread header pointed out that hypothetical polling is like a Hawaiian pizza, both should be avoided by right thinking people everywhere.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/01/your-regular-reminder-that-hypothetical-polls-can-be-as-accurate-as-an-american-war-film/

    Here's another example of hypothetical polling is bobbins.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/23/why-hypothetical-polling-is-bobbins/
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    In 2019, it was pretty clear who (BoJo) and what (Get Brexit Done) the solution was. Brexit Party supporters went across to the Conservatives and the rest is history.

    I'm not saying that a similar solution doesn't exist this time, but it's a lot less obvious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    CatMan said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    From what I remember from reading on PB, these sort of hypothetical polls aren't that accurate
    Indeed, this magnificent thread header pointed out that hypothetical polling is like a Hawaiian pizza, both should be avoided by right thinking people everywhere.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/01/your-regular-reminder-that-hypothetical-polls-can-be-as-accurate-as-an-american-war-film/

    Here's another example of hypothetical polling is bobbins.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/23/why-hypothetical-polling-is-bobbins/
    That wasn't a new leader hypothetical poll.

    Whereas hypothetical polls in 1990 correctly predicted that Major would overcome Thatcher's deficit against Kinnock, in 1994 that Blair was the strongest contender for Labour, in 2005 that Cameron was the strongest contender for the Tories and in early 2019 that Boris would beat Corbyn
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    DougSeal said:

    New Year in Bergamo


    One of my favourite places; lucky you. I hope to be there again in April.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758

    IanB2 said:

    So, a vital question for PB's brains trust.

    We all know that pineapple on pizza is a food of the Gods. I've just made my son a pizza that used barbecue sauce rather than tomato sauce. Where does this rank in PB's dream foods?

    And can a pizza without tomato sue be called a pizza?

    It’s known as a pizza bianca

    I’ve had it in Italy - what to the purists say about it, though?

    At the very least it'll be traditional in the one can neglect having tomatoes available. My guess is just that though.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,769
    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    I dunno. My son plays football in an U15 team and the parents frequently comment on the likelihood of various 6ft opponents with a full beard being actually 25, black or white, it makes no difference. And we are mostly fully signed up members of the tofu eating wokerati.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    You sound like one of these really woke people who just have to bring race and gender into everything.
    It's a game of darts. Luke looks older than he is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    IanB2 said:

    So, a vital question for PB's brains trust.

    We all know that pineapple on pizza is a food of the Gods. I've just made my son a pizza that used barbecue sauce rather than tomato sauce. Where does this rank in PB's dream foods?

    And can a pizza without tomato sue be called a pizza?

    It’s known as a pizza bianca

    I’ve had it in Italy - what to the purists say about it, though?

    Pizza originated in Naples, Italy and subsequently spread through the Roman Empire (yes, it’s that old!). It captured the hearts and taste buds of the world, including the United States. But when most Americans think “pizza,” what they’re usually thinking about is pizza made with a base of tomato sauce, known as “red” pizza. If on the other hand you travel to Italy, pizza’s home country, you’ll see that most menus offer you a choice of red or white pizza.

    Essentially, red pizza is a pizza with a tomato sauce base, while white pizza is a pizza with a cheese base. The two traditions are equally venerable; ancient Romans used to cut their white pizza in two and eat it with figs or cheese and chicory, and white pizza—or pizza bianca—was first used to check the temperature of the bricks before cooking the bread for the day.
  • WilsonWilson Posts: 8

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    I dunno. My son plays football in an U15 team and the parents frequently comment on the likelihood of various 6ft opponents with a full beard being actually 25, black or white, it makes no difference. And we are mostly fully signed up members of the tofu eating wokerati.
    Apparently young people are starting to look older again now reversing a trend of them looking younger culminating in the millenials. Maybe the stress of the past few years has prematurely aged them.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,769

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    You sound like one of these really woke people who just have to bring race and gender into everything.
    It's a game of darts. Luke looks older than he is.
    All zealots turn into the thing they profess to hate. The anti woke are a prime example.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    In 2019, it was pretty clear who (BoJo) and what (Get Brexit Done) the solution was. Brexit Party supporters went across to the Conservatives and the rest is history.

    I'm not saying that a similar solution doesn't exist this time, but it's a lot less obvious.
    Hard to see it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    You sound like one of these really woke people who just have to bring race and gender into everything.
    It's a game of darts. Luke looks older than he is.
    If that’s what I sound like, so be it
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,769
    Wilson said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    I dunno. My son plays football in an U15 team and the parents frequently comment on the likelihood of various 6ft opponents with a full beard being actually 25, black or white, it makes no difference. And we are mostly fully signed up members of the tofu eating wokerati.
    Apparently young people are starting to look older again now reversing a trend of them looking younger culminating in the millenials. Maybe the stress of the past few years has prematurely aged them.
    My son didn't get the memo! My kids all look about 2-3 years younger than they are. Mind you my wife looks about 15 years younger than she is so perhaps it's not surprising.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Anyone know if banks and building societies are likely to drop their SVRs any time soon?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    No. At the time it was a free anti-EU vote. It was simply a reaffirming signal that the Brexit vote was something that we wished to press forwards.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited January 3
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR. Of course Netanyahu's broad rightwing government of multiple parties in Israel has also been elected via PR

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896

    Anyone know if banks and building societies are likely to drop their SVRs any time soon?

    Not sure, but assuming they don't screw me I've managed to drop a 2 year fix by 0.92% vs what was on the table a month ago...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    I dunno. My son plays football in an U15 team and the parents frequently comment on the likelihood of various 6ft opponents with a full beard being actually 25, black or white, it makes no difference. And we are mostly fully signed up members of the tofu eating wokerati.
    I’d be surprised if anyone saying it about a young black man, or young female, on social media got away without a pile on.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    Could be true though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR

    Farage really has to be one RefUK leader - imagine the debates ft him vs Sunak & Sir Keir; could all that ‘low immigration and high wages’ guff from Starmer end up with “I agree with Nige”?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694

    I am very pleased to disclose that Starbucks has had to struggle on without my custom for some 8 years or so. Even way back in my teens when I was into those horrible iced things, Starbucks ones were all gritty and sugary, whereas Coffee Republic they were smooth and tasted of coffee.

    I can't stand Starbucks.

    They impertinently ask for your name and then announce it several times loudly and publicly.
    You don't have to tell them your real name.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Wilson said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    I dunno. My son plays football in an U15 team and the parents frequently comment on the likelihood of various 6ft opponents with a full beard being actually 25, black or white, it makes no difference. And we are mostly fully signed up members of the tofu eating wokerati.
    Apparently young people are starting to look older again now reversing a trend of them looking younger culminating in the millenials. Maybe the stress of the past few years has prematurely aged them.
    My son didn't get the memo! My kids all look about 2-3 years younger than they are. Mind you my wife looks about 15 years younger than she is so perhaps it's not surprising.
    Shame she’s 30 years older than you!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    Darts then. Here we go.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    If you miss this you'd better be Dead. Or in Jail!

    And if you are in jail?

    BREAK OUT...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    malcolmg said:

    Does anyone think (as opposed to wish) that charges will eventually arise from this performance, and, if so, when? My guess is yes, and shortly after the GE date is announced.

    Have to be charges Red, teh £600K alone is gone, not to mention all the other stuff found, will SNP be bankrupt before then. They have now taken all the branches money and will burn through that quickly, only income they have now is the short money and no chance they will find £1.5M for the election.
    Good few court cases coming up as well, judge will not be happy they have shredded all the evidence, she is toast one way or another, almost as many cases as Trump.
    It will be interesting to see how they fight an election with no money, no donors and having pissed off most of their activists. Hope their SPADs are good at canvassing!
    Problem SNP have is that they won't be able to focus their resources in certain key target seats in the way that Labour, Con and LibDem will. The downside to their previous success. I guess, in practice, they will have to respond to the demands of sitting MPs, which will be good news for the incumbents in the seats the Scottish Tories and LibDems are defending.
    I suspect they will concentrate their resources on supporting their most loyal MPs. So, support for people like Alison Thewliss, but not for people like Joanna Cherry.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR

    But at the moment we have FPTP.

    That's a system that's utterly brutal to nationwide parties on 21 percent.

    And to parties that are being attacked on both flanks.

    In the prediction challenge, I went for "Labour by a big but not quite landslide win". That requires the Conservatives to be a bit below 200, but not much.

    If RefUK don't get squeezed, they can pretty easily destroy the Conservatives, whilst picking up few seats themselves. And I don't see a viable way that Rishi can win them over. (Hand over to Suella running on Get ECHRxit Done?)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Another heavy rain and flood warning for tomorrow. This spell of unusually wet weather seems never ending.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    So, a vital question for PB's brains trust.

    We all know that pineapple on pizza is a food of the Gods. I've just made my son a pizza that used barbecue sauce rather than tomato sauce. Where does this rank in PB's dream foods?

    And can a pizza without tomato sue be called a pizza?

    It’s known as a pizza bianca

    I’ve had it in Italy - what to the purists say about it, though?

    Pizza originated in Naples, Italy and subsequently spread through the Roman Empire (yes, it’s that old!). It captured the hearts and taste buds of the world, including the United States. But when most Americans think “pizza,” what they’re usually thinking about is pizza made with a base of tomato sauce, known as “red” pizza. If on the other hand you travel to Italy, pizza’s home country, you’ll see that most menus offer you a choice of red or white pizza.

    Essentially, red pizza is a pizza with a tomato sauce base, while white pizza is a pizza with a cheese base. The two traditions are equally venerable; ancient Romans used to cut their white pizza in two and eat it with figs or cheese and chicory, and white pizza—or pizza bianca—was first used to check the temperature of the bricks before cooking the bread for the day.

    "pizza
    /ˈpiːtsə/
    noun
    a dish of Italian origin, consisting of a flat round base of dough baked with a topping of tomatoes and cheese, typically with added meat, fish, or vegetables."

    It's cheese on toast. Just about edible if nothing else available. Nothing much else to say is there?
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Good evening PB :)

    I note a poll from Deltapoll shows a Labour lead of 14 points:

    📊 Labour lead of 14pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+2)
    CON: 28% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (+1)
    REF: 9% (+2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 22 - 29 Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1742550874994466991 (via X, formerly Twitter).

    What is left to move the dial? The Tories have thrown everything at the wall and nothing seems to be sticking, at this point it feels like managed decline rather than an approach to improve the country in any meaningful way.

    I will see you all tomorrow :)
  • WilsonWilson Posts: 8
    If Trump gets in again the effects on uk politics will be interesting. Will this aid the establishment of a more openly nationalist right wing party in the uk as Trump makes speeches about immigrants poisoning the lifeblood of the country. Interesting times.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    I dunno. My son plays football in an U15 team and the parents frequently comment on the likelihood of various 6ft opponents with a full beard being actually 25, black or white, it makes no difference. And we are mostly fully signed up members of the tofu eating wokerati.
    Memories of the Saudi team at the 1989 U-16 World Cup
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    IanB2 said:

    Another heavy rain and flood warning for tomorrow. This spell of unusually wet weather seems never ending.

    It's ended up North.
    We're in the clear for the next week or so.
    Good job too.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    They would. There have been endless insinuations about certain African footballers' birth certificates possibly not being entirely accurate over the years. Often with some level of seriousness.

    And people's reactions would entirely depend on whether, as with Littler, it was for the most part good-natured jokey disbelief and awe. Or whether it was accompanied by some much nastier stuff.

    When Jude Bellingham broke through at Birmingham there were lots of comments about scarcely being able to believe his age as there was this 6ft lad bossing fully grown men aged 16 - no one shouted racism because it was clear there was nothing sinister to it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    Wilson said:

    If Trump gets in again the effects on uk politics will be interesting. Will this aid the establishment of a more openly nationalist right wing party in the uk as Trump makes speeches about immigrants poisoning the lifeblood of the country. Interesting times.

    If Trump gets in again, having won the GOP nomination and not gone 3rd party, then a defeated Tories would likely follow suit and elect a populist leader like Braverman or Badenoch or else risk being replaced by a Farage led Reform
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    PB has a significant Forest fan club.
    Well. You could get a points deduction. Join the club!

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/jan/03/nottingham-forest-face-questions-over-jonjo-shelveys-confused-exit-from-club
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,241

    Good evening PB :)

    I note a poll from Deltapoll shows a Labour lead of 14 points:

    📊 Labour lead of 14pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+2)
    CON: 28% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (+1)
    REF: 9% (+2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 22 - 29 Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1742550874994466991 (via X, formerly Twitter).

    What is left to move the dial? The Tories have thrown everything at the wall and nothing seems to be sticking, at this point it feels like managed decline rather than an approach to improve the country in any meaningful way.

    I will see you all tomorrow :)

    I agree. I do not see a route to victory for the
    Conservative Party at the next election. More - I think a Labour majority is now a 90%+
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR

    But at the moment we have FPTP.

    That's a system that's utterly brutal to nationwide parties on 21 percent.

    And to parties that are being attacked on both flanks.

    In the prediction challenge, I went for "Labour by a big but not quite landslide win". That requires the Conservatives to be a bit below 200, but not much.

    If RefUK don't get squeezed, they can pretty easily destroy the Conservatives, whilst picking up few seats themselves. And I don't see a viable way that Rishi can win them over. (Hand over to Suella running on Get ECHRxit Done?)
    Yes, hence at the moment PR might be be better for the Tories than FPTP
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR

    Farage really has to be one RefUK leader - imagine the debates ft him vs Sunak & Sir Keir; could all that ‘low immigration and high wages’ guff from Starmer end up with “I agree with Nige”?
    The question is why won't NF do it? Not enough money involved? Can't be arsed? Doesn't really want to destroy the Tories despite his drivel?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,393

    Good evening PB :)

    I note a poll from Deltapoll shows a Labour lead of 14 points:

    📊 Labour lead of 14pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+2)
    CON: 28% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (+1)
    REF: 9% (+2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 22 - 29 Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1742550874994466991 (via X, formerly Twitter).

    What is left to move the dial? The Tories have thrown everything at the wall and nothing seems to be sticking, at this point it feels like managed decline rather than an approach to improve the country in any meaningful way.

    I will see you all tomorrow :)

    I agree. I do not see a route to victory for the
    Conservative Party at the next election. More - I think a Labour majority is now a 90%+
    Scrutiny of labour is the only thing that will move the dial. Most people are not wasting their lives posting on PB. Most people do not obsess about politics. But they pay attention a tiny bit more during general elections.

    I think a labour majority is nailed on, but I think the polls will narrow somewhat. Expect a day of ‘The Day The Polls Turned’ once during the campaign…
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 3

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR

    But at the moment we have FPTP.

    That's a system that's utterly brutal to nationwide parties on 21 percent.

    And to parties that are being attacked on both flanks.

    In the prediction challenge, I went for "Labour by a big but not quite landslide win". That requires the Conservatives to be a bit below 200, but not much.

    If RefUK don't get squeezed, they can pretty easily destroy the Conservatives, whilst picking up few seats themselves. And I don't see a viable way that Rishi can win them over. (Hand over to Suella running on Get ECHRxit Done?)
    The only thing that can prevent a big Labour majority are some kind of scandal on a partygate level. Sir Keir is stiff as a board, lies through his teeth, and is bound to look crap during the campaign, but the Tory brand is so damaged, and Sunak appears so weak and disconnected with voters, that I don’t think it matters.

    There’s literally no one to replace him with who can turn it around either, they’ve made a mess of it that their worst enemies couldn’t have dreamed of
  • isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    It categorically did not.

    It was like a free hit in Cricket. A chance to vote knowing that there was absolutely no chance that anyone "elected" would end up in Parliament, and to reaffirm the referendum result, and say that the Brexit deadlock in Parliament needed resolving.

    The result was 99% due to Theresa May and the House of Commons, 1% if that due to Farage - and it only happened as it was not a Westminster election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR

    Farage really has to be one RefUK leader - imagine the debates ft him vs Sunak & Sir Keir; could all that ‘low immigration and high wages’ guff from Starmer end up with “I agree with Nige”?
    The question is why won't NF do it? Not enough money involved? Can't be arsed? Doesn't really want to destroy the Tories despite his drivel?
    I don't think he will. For 2 reasons, the first is that he wants ermine after the GE, and might get it from one of Badenoch/Braverman/Patel

    The second is that he doesn't want to be tied to a seat, having been defeated seven times. He would prefer the national stage.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR

    Farage really has to be one RefUK leader - imagine the debates ft him vs Sunak & Sir Keir; could all that ‘low immigration and high wages’ guff from Starmer end up with “I agree with Nige”?
    "The Faragegasm"
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    Yes and Farage is charismatic too, more so than May was and Sunak is.

    Combined Yougov has the Tories and a Farage led Reform on 35%, yet divided the Tories are on just 21%. In that scenario PR would actually be better for the Tories, otherwise as in Canada in the post 1993 split between the Canadian Tories and Reform FPTP just splits the rightwing vote (which it did until the Tories and Canadian Alliance, successor to Reform, merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada). In the US too if Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes 3rd party he could also hand the election to Biden on a plate via the FPTP EC.

    While in Italy, which has PR, a united coalition of centre right Forza Italia and populist right Lega Nord and Brothers of Italy is in government. In NZ too a rightwing government of centre right Nationals and populist NZ First and libertarian ACT are in government with PR and in Spain the PP and Vox are just a whisker away from government, also with PR. In Sweden as well the Sweden Democrats and Moderates have formed a rightwing government with PR

    Farage really has to be one RefUK leader - imagine the debates ft him vs Sunak & Sir Keir; could all that ‘low immigration and high wages’ guff from Starmer end up with “I agree with Nige”?
    The question is why won't NF do it? Not enough money involved? Can't be arsed? Doesn't really want to destroy the Tories despite his drivel?
    Yes, that is a good question. If he really did want to destroy them, he will surely give it a go this year.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Wilson said:

    If Trump gets in again the effects on uk politics will be interesting. Will this aid the establishment of a more openly nationalist right wing party in the uk as Trump makes speeches about immigrants poisoning the lifeblood of the country. Interesting times.

    If the weather continues at minus 20 in Finland, do you think this will impact on the output of Russian propoganda?
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    I dunno. My son plays football in an U15 team and the parents frequently comment on the likelihood of various 6ft opponents with a full beard being actually 25, black or white, it makes no difference. And we are mostly fully signed up members of the tofu eating wokerati.
    I’d be surprised if anyone saying it about a young black man, or young female, on social media got away without a pile on.
    There's an age-old tradition that its rude to discuss women's ages, so probably with a female yeah it might get more of a backlash, because it is rude.

    There's absolutely no racial issue though and the same has happened with young black prodigies who look older than they are when they breakthrough without any backlash, such as already mentioned with Jude Bellingham.

    There's nothing weird with mentioning Luke's appearance. He's 16 but he looks like he wouldn't be asked for ID in most Challenge 25 scenarios.
  • WilsonWilson Posts: 8
    HYUFD said:

    Wilson said:

    If Trump gets in again the effects on uk politics will be interesting. Will this aid the establishment of a more openly nationalist right wing party in the uk as Trump makes speeches about immigrants poisoning the lifeblood of the country. Interesting times.

    If Trump gets in again, having won the GOP nomination and not gone 3rd party, then a defeated Tories would likely follow suit and elect a populist leader like Braverman or Badenoch or else risk being replaced by a Farage led Reform
    Yes on the same note look how islamic calls to prayers outside our parliament are becoming much more common now.

    https://x.com/OnlyAsking3/status/1742613990977486870?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    dixiedean said:

    PB has a significant Forest fan club.
    Well. You could get a points deduction. Join the club!

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/jan/03/nottingham-forest-face-questions-over-jonjo-shelveys-confused-exit-from-club

    Cheering us up in the Leics floods!

    Though I don't support points deductions for business reasons, only sporting ones. Slap them with a transfer ban rather than points off.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    The Darts. Are you not entertained?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    So, a vital question for PB's brains trust.

    We all know that pineapple on pizza is a food of the Gods. I've just made my son a pizza that used barbecue sauce rather than tomato sauce. Where does this rank in PB's dream foods?

    And can a pizza without tomato sue be called a pizza?

    It’s known as a pizza bianca

    I’ve had it in Italy - what to the purists say about it, though?

    Pizza originated in Naples, Italy and subsequently spread through the Roman Empire (yes, it’s that old!). It captured the hearts and taste buds of the world, including the United States. But when most Americans think “pizza,” what they’re usually thinking about is pizza made with a base of tomato sauce, known as “red” pizza. If on the other hand you travel to Italy, pizza’s home country, you’ll see that most menus offer you a choice of red or white pizza.

    Essentially, red pizza is a pizza with a tomato sauce base, while white pizza is a pizza with a cheese base. The two traditions are equally venerable; ancient Romans used to cut their white pizza in two and eat it with figs or cheese and chicory, and white pizza—or pizza bianca—was first used to check the temperature of the bricks before cooking the bread for the day.
    I've been watching quite a few cookery/travelogue shows of late and I'd be quite surprised if Italy (or 'Rome') could lay much of a claim to the dish. Across the middle east, north africa, georgia, you name it - there are similar dishes.

    I would 100% give them props for "The Pizza" - as in the circular dough baked on high heat usually with some sort of olive-oil & cheese/meat topping though.

    To quote Blackadder :

    Blackadder:
    Now, Baldrick, go to the kitchen and make me something quick and simple to eat, would you? Two slices of bread with something in between.

    Baldrick:
    What, like Gerald, Lord Sandwich had the other day?

    Blackadder:
    Yes, a few rounds of geralds.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Lest we forget . . .

    Seattle Times (via AP) - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualifies for presidential ballot in Utah, the first state to grant him access

    SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has collected enough signatures to appear on the 2024 presidential ballot in Utah, election officials say, marking the first state where the independent candidate and prominent anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist has qualified.

    Kennedy has met the 1,000-signature requirement needed to qualify in Utah and can officially file to run as a presidential candidate in the state before a March 5 deadline, state Elections Director Ryan Cowley said.

    Utah is the first state where Kennedy’s campaign submitted signatures and qualified for ballot access, campaign spokesperson Stefanie Spear said. She did not indicate which day he would file for candidacy. . . .

    SSI - Below are requirements for independent/3rd-party POTUS candidates for general election ballot:

    To appear on the General Election ballot either as a nominee of a minor party or as an independent candidate, candidates must demonstrate support by Washington State voters through obtaining 1,000 signatures of Washington registered voters. These voters must attend a state convention held in support of the party or candidate. Conventions may only be during a specific period, from the first Saturday in May to the last Saturday in July. The Convention Chair must submit all required documents to the Secretary of State by the first Friday in August.

    https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/candidates-campaigns/filing-resources/running-president-united-states
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 3
    MJW said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    They would. There have been endless insinuations about certain African footballers' birth certificates possibly not being entirely accurate over the years. Often with some level of seriousness.

    And people's reactions would entirely depend on whether, as with Littler, it was for the most part good-natured jokey disbelief and awe. Or whether it was accompanied by some much nastier stuff.

    When Jude Bellingham broke through at Birmingham there were lots of comments about scarcely being able to believe his age as there was this 6ft lad bossing fully grown men aged 16 - no one shouted racism because it was clear there was nothing sinister to it.
    I think you are missing the point - Littler’s age isn’t being questioned just because he’s bossing fully grown men, it’s because he looks about 40.

    Bellingham doesn’t look 20 years older than he is, he’s just a great footballer

    Your first paragraph is why lots of people wouldn’t make the jokes about a hypothetical black Luke Littler, and would cry ‘racist’ if someone did
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    Wilson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wilson said:

    If Trump gets in again the effects on uk politics will be interesting. Will this aid the establishment of a more openly nationalist right wing party in the uk as Trump makes speeches about immigrants poisoning the lifeblood of the country. Interesting times.

    If Trump gets in again, having won the GOP nomination and not gone 3rd party, then a defeated Tories would likely follow suit and elect a populist leader like Braverman or Badenoch or else risk being replaced by a Farage led Reform
    Yes on the same note look how islamic calls to prayers outside our parliament are becoming much more common now.

    https://x.com/OnlyAsking3/status/1742613990977486870?s=20
    They are all British Airways pilots though. It's the only way they can struggle through their post-vax problems.
  • WilsonWilson Posts: 8
    ohnotnow said:

    Wilson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wilson said:

    If Trump gets in again the effects on uk politics will be interesting. Will this aid the establishment of a more openly nationalist right wing party in the uk as Trump makes speeches about immigrants poisoning the lifeblood of the country. Interesting times.

    If Trump gets in again, having won the GOP nomination and not gone 3rd party, then a defeated Tories would likely follow suit and elect a populist leader like Braverman or Badenoch or else risk being replaced by a Farage led Reform
    Yes on the same note look how islamic calls to prayers outside our parliament are becoming much more common now.

    https://x.com/OnlyAsking3/status/1742613990977486870?s=20
    They are all British Airways pilots though. It's the only way they can struggle through their post-vax problems.
    On that topic there has been this worrying trend notably coming to light,

    A tragic start to a flight for all concerned, after a 52-year-old steward tragically collapsed as the busy flight from London Heathrow to Hong Kong prepared to depart.

    The 2nd BA Steward to die onboard within 10 days too.

    https://thesun.co.uk/news/25233892/tragedy-as-british-airways-steward-dies/


    https://x.com/waynetlc/status/1742585181725192503?s=20
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Tres said:

    I am very pleased to disclose that Starbucks has had to struggle on without my custom for some 8 years or so. Even way back in my teens when I was into those horrible iced things, Starbucks ones were all gritty and sugary, whereas Coffee Republic they were smooth and tasted of coffee.

    I can't stand Starbucks.

    They impertinently ask for your name and then announce it several times loudly and publicly.
    You don't have to tell them your real name.
    Starbucks Barista - "May I have a name for your order?"

    The Prisoner - "I am NOT a name!"
  • That didn't last long.

    I've seen volleyballs that lasted longer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Wilson said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Wilson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wilson said:

    If Trump gets in again the effects on uk politics will be interesting. Will this aid the establishment of a more openly nationalist right wing party in the uk as Trump makes speeches about immigrants poisoning the lifeblood of the country. Interesting times.

    If Trump gets in again, having won the GOP nomination and not gone 3rd party, then a defeated Tories would likely follow suit and elect a populist leader like Braverman or Badenoch or else risk being replaced by a Farage led Reform
    Yes on the same note look how islamic calls to prayers outside our parliament are becoming much more common now.

    https://x.com/OnlyAsking3/status/1742613990977486870?s=20
    They are all British Airways pilots though. It's the only way they can struggle through their post-vax problems.
    On that topic there has been this worrying trend notably coming to light,

    A tragic start to a flight for all concerned, after a 52-year-old steward tragically collapsed as the busy flight from London Heathrow to Hong Kong prepared to depart.

    The 2nd BA Steward to die onboard within 10 days too.

    https://thesun.co.uk/news/25233892/tragedy-as-british-airways-steward-dies/


    https://x.com/waynetlc/status/1742585181725192503?s=20
    How's Rishi's Stop the Bots promise looking now, eh?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,872
    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    Emma Raducanu? Sky the skateboarder? I don't think they were called out as faking their age.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    Labour at 21% ????
    Tice's warning of a "Starmergeddon" gaining massive traction?

    Tax cuts, reduction in Government spending of a whopping 5% and standards improving through reduction in "waste" under a Reform Government. So promoting the same old Mom and apple pie bollocks as Con and Lab.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    It categorically did not.

    It was like a free hit in Cricket. A chance to vote knowing that there was absolutely no chance that anyone "elected" would end up in Parliament, and to reaffirm the referendum result, and say that the Brexit deadlock in Parliament needed resolving.

    The result was 99% due to Theresa May and the House of Commons, 1% if that due to Farage - and it only happened as it was not a Westminster election.
    It still gave an indication of what could happen. I think your embarrassment at voting for Farage in 2019 means you overcompensate
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    isam said:

    Wales is, in a way, Labour’s biggest achilles heel.
    Place has been a shit-show since forever, and there appears no desire amongst the Welsh ruling class (nor the Welsh at large, tbh) to address it.

    https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1741144333036757303?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    The tweeter is possibly not the most objective assessor of Labour, tbh...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    And another one bites the dust.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    Emma Raducanu? Sky the skateboarder? I don't think they were called out as faking their age.
    Emma Raducanu didn’t look like she was in her late thirties when she was sixteen
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    14% now could easily turn into 20% at a general election.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    So Reform would go from winning no seats under Tice to winning no seats under Farage.
    Reform would be a clear 3rd on voteshare though, as UKIP were in 2015, on 14% and well ahead of the LDs on 10% with the Greens on 8%. UKIP also did get 1 MP for their 12% of the 2015 vote.

    If Farage returned as Reform leader the Sunak Tories would fall to only 21%, just 7% ahead of Reform (as opposed to 11% ahead of the current Tice led Reform) who are closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour on 42%
    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1742602515324035262?s=20
    The 2019 Euros give an indication of what a Farage led party can do to the Tories when they have a leader their voters don’t like
    It categorically did not.

    It was like a free hit in Cricket. A chance to vote knowing that there was absolutely no chance that anyone "elected" would end up in Parliament, and to reaffirm the referendum result, and say that the Brexit deadlock in Parliament needed resolving.

    The result was 99% due to Theresa May and the House of Commons, 1% if that due to Farage - and it only happened as it was not a Westminster election.
    It still gave an indication of what could happen. I think your embarrassment at voting for Farage in 2019 means you overcompensate
    I'm not embarrassed.

    I didn't vote for Farage either.

    I voted to send a message to the Commons and we got rid of Theresa May, got Boris in her stead and within a year we had Brexit done.

    I was quite pleased with how I voted and in the same situation I'd do the same again . . . but only because it was a bullshit election that was utterly meaningless and was no more about sending Farage to Westminster than voting for him in I'm A Celeb was.

    In a real election, to Westminster, people would vote differently.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,872

    Ed Davey. Not winning here for sub postmasters.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67873197

    “Meanwhile, campaigning in Surrey where the Liberal Democrats are hoping to win a number of Conservative-held seats at the next general election, party leader Sir Ed Davey said he regretted not asking "tougher questions" of Post Office managers when he was postal affairs minister in the coalition government from 2010 to 2012.
    Asked why he refused to meet Alan Bates, the postmaster who led the campaign to expose the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, he said: "It is a national scandal... dreadful and it's been going on for so long. The Conservative government really needs to sort out the compensation.
    "I regret not having asked the Post Office managers even tougher questions than I did."
    Asked why he accepted the Post Office's assertions at face value, Sir Ed replied: "I asked really tough questions of Post Office managers and indeed the officials. I wish I'd gone further."
    He congratulated Mr Bates for his campaign, he added.”

    Ed Davey regrets his part in the Post Office scandal. That's all right then. He regrets it. He's not losing sleep over it, or money, or his job. Do the decent thing, Ed, or STFU.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    Emma Raducanu? Sky the skateboarder? I don't think they were called out as faking their age.
    Emma Raducanu didn’t look like she was in her late thirties when she was sixteen
    So what's your point?

    Luke does, so people have commented on that about Luke, because its true.

    Find a black or female 16 year old who looks like he's in his late thirties or forties and see if others haven't made remarks to that effect.

    Its absurd, you don't have to turn everything into race.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 3

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    I dunno. My son plays football in an U15 team and the parents frequently comment on the likelihood of various 6ft opponents with a full beard being actually 25, black or white, it makes no difference. And we are mostly fully signed up members of the tofu eating wokerati.
    I’d be surprised if anyone saying it about a young black man, or young female, on social media got away without a pile on.
    There's an age-old tradition that its rude to discuss women's ages, so probably with a female yeah it might get more of a backlash, because it is rude.

    There's absolutely no racial issue though and the same has happened with young black prodigies who look older than they are when they breakthrough without any backlash, such as already mentioned with Jude Bellingham.

    There's nothing weird with mentioning Luke's appearance. He's 16 but he looks like he wouldn't be asked for ID in most Challenge 25 scenarios.
    Jude Bellingham didn’t look old for a teenage athlete
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    Farage as leader would increase Reform vote from 11% to 14%, leaving Lab lead unchanged at 21pts:
    @YouGov
    for Times

    Labour at 21% ????
    Tice's warning of a "Starmergeddon" gaining massive traction?

    Tax cuts, reduction in Government spending of a whopping 5% and standards improving through reduction in "waste" under a Reform Government. So promoting the same old Mom and apple pie bollocks as Con and Lab.
    Although... the 21% was the Labour lead
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Ed Davey. Not winning here for sub postmasters.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67873197

    “Meanwhile, campaigning in Surrey where the Liberal Democrats are hoping to win a number of Conservative-held seats at the next general election, party leader Sir Ed Davey said he regretted not asking "tougher questions" of Post Office managers when he was postal affairs minister in the coalition government from 2010 to 2012.
    Asked why he refused to meet Alan Bates, the postmaster who led the campaign to expose the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, he said: "It is a national scandal... dreadful and it's been going on for so long. The Conservative government really needs to sort out the compensation.
    "I regret not having asked the Post Office managers even tougher questions than I did."
    Asked why he accepted the Post Office's assertions at face value, Sir Ed replied: "I asked really tough questions of Post Office managers and indeed the officials. I wish I'd gone further."
    He congratulated Mr Bates for his campaign, he added.”

    Ed Davey regrets his part in the Post Office scandal. That's all right then. He regrets it. He's not losing sleep over it, or money, or his job. Do the decent thing, Ed, or STFU.
    He was responsible for 19 months of the two decades. Who are the other ministers responsible, before or after?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    Emma Raducanu? Sky the skateboarder? I don't think they were called out as faking their age.
    Emma Raducanu didn’t look like she was in her late thirties when she was sixteen
    So what's your point?

    Luke does, so people have commented on that about Luke, because its true.

    Find a black or female 16 year old who looks like he's in his late thirties or forties and see if others haven't made remarks to that effect.

    Its absurd, you don't have to turn everything into race.
    The point is that if a 16 yr old black sporting prodigy looked 38, people taking the piss out of that would be getting called racist by some people who are happy to take the piss out of Luke
    Littler for looking old
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Breaking News - Uninformed sources suggest, that "Wilson" has (been) signed off PB, in order to go out gathering signatures to get RFKJr on the ballot in American Samoa.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    Emma Raducanu? Sky the skateboarder? I don't think they were called out as faking their age.
    Emma Raducanu didn’t look like she was in her late thirties when she was sixteen
    So what's your point?

    Luke does, so people have commented on that about Luke, because its true.

    Find a black or female 16 year old who looks like he's in his late thirties or forties and see if others haven't made remarks to that effect.

    Its absurd, you don't have to turn everything into race.
    The point is that if a 16 yr old black sporting prodigy looked 38, people taking the piss out of that would be getting called racist by some people who are happy to take the piss out of Luke
    Littler for looking old
    Why would they? When has that ever happened?

    Luke looks like he's in his late thirties or older. I think he looks older than I do and I'm 42, if I was working in a shop selling alcohol I wouldn't ask for his ID under Challenge 25. Commenting on that, is not racist, there is no race issue here.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    All these jokes about Luke Littler looking old for his age… if he were a black 16 yr old and the same jokes were being made, I get the feeling a lot of those making the jokes would be saying “That’s a racist trope, you wouldn’t say it if he was white”

    Early contender for the most bizarre post of 2024?
    It’s bizarre that it’s true - if a black 16 yr old prodigy looked a lot older than his age, people wouldn’t dare say so, and those who did would be called out as racist for focussing on appearance rather than ability. I think the same logic works if it were a female prodigy
    Emma Raducanu? Sky the skateboarder? I don't think they were called out as faking their age.
    Emma Raducanu didn’t look like she was in her late thirties when she was sixteen
    So what's your point?

    Luke does, so people have commented on that about Luke, because its true.

    Find a black or female 16 year old who looks like he's in his late thirties or forties and see if others haven't made remarks to that effect.

    Its absurd, you don't have to turn everything into race.
    The point is that if a 16 yr old black sporting prodigy looked 38, people taking the piss out of that would be getting called racist by some people who are happy to take the piss out of Luke
    Littler for looking old
    Why would they? When has that ever happened?

    Luke looks like he's in his late thirties or older. I think he looks older than I do and I'm 42, if I was working in a shop selling alcohol I wouldn't ask for his ID under Challenge 25. Commenting on that, is not racist, there is no race issue here.
    Have you been smoking crack?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    Wales is, in a way, Labour’s biggest achilles heel.
    Place has been a shit-show since forever, and there appears no desire amongst the Welsh ruling class (nor the Welsh at large, tbh) to address it.

    https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1741144333036757303?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    The tweeter is possibly not the most objective assessor of Labour, tbh...
    I live in Wales and it is not as bad as the Tory client media would have us believe. Betsi Cadwallader and the botched rollout and certainly botched media rollout of the otherwise reasonable idea of the 20mph urban speed limit notwithstanding.

    From my side of Offa's Dyke, the Welsh Government are a 4/10 exam pass. On the bright side the current Welsh government may be very vin ordinaire, but just imagine the sour grapes of a ruddy faced First Minister A.R.T. Davies. The Welsh answer to Liz Truss.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    MOD NOTICE

    I'm extremely bored of discussions of Luke's looks. Please move on.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,815

    Good evening PB :)

    I note a poll from Deltapoll shows a Labour lead of 14 points:

    📊 Labour lead of 14pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+2)
    CON: 28% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (+1)
    REF: 9% (+2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 22 - 29 Dec

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
This discussion has been closed.