Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Electronic bathroom scales can be set to show kilograms, stones and pounds, or just pounds for any visiting Americans. I suspect most people do not know this and just use whatever is the manufacturer's default. Reading product manuals is for girly swots.
The only time I switch our bathroom scales to kilos is when weighing suitcases ahead of a holiday.
Otherwise stones and pounds. It is the only unit for people's weight* where I have any idea if they are light or heavy. It appears that I weigh 82 kg. I will no doubt have forgotten this by teatime.
*Strictly mass, but this isn't a physics class.
You are right of course, but it is only habit. if you leave them on kilos it will become the new norm (and it will be stones/pounds you will forget) and then it become convenient for doing the stuff where you have to weigh things in kilos by holding them and stepping on the scales (for us this is suitcases and the dog)
I used to use stones for weight but defaulted to kilos after having my BMI calculated a few times in medicals. It was just easier then to stick with kilos. I hover between 66 and 70kg. 70 acts as a useful ceiling.
I don’t have a strong preference either way, like language you use what you’re most familiar with. I have a random mix as do most Brits: kg and g for cooking, km for walking, miles for driving, MPG, pint of beer, ml for wine, C for temperature, both feet and inches and centimetres for height etc.
I really don’t think many people can be arsed to make a culture war battle out of weights and measures.
Agree. I am metric for just about everything except where doing so would be silly eg miles on the road, mpg, pints in the pub. However I do have a quirk in that I only know my height is in feet and inches. No idea what it is in metric, even though I measure everything else in millimetres, metres and kilometres. I suspect that is because I stopped growing when feet and inches were used for height so it has stuck with me and frankly I don't care.
Just bemused that @Luckyguy1983 thinks it is not old fashioned to stick with imperial. My grandparents were horrified when the currency went metric. I thought they were dinosaurs then. They couldn't see how stuff would become much easier. That was 70 years ago and @Luckyguy1983 still doesn't think that making such a change is moving with the times.
The only advantage of pounds over kilograms is that its easier to notice small changes without using decimals. Losing a kilo a week is improbable, but losing a pound or two a week is quite attainable. I've lost twenty pounds feels better to say than I've lost nine kilos, even if they're the same thing.
But I use pounds in a metric fashion, without any of that stones nonsense, I simply weigh how many pounds I am and note the change. Otherwise I'd definitely stick with kilos over converting stones into pounds and then noting the change.
Using pounds only is just American nonsense.
British stone for British bodies!
Quite. If you need to lose a stone, you need to lose a stone - no amount of poncing around with kilos is going to change that fact.
Americans are even worse for using pounds as their *largest* unit of weight - so that a lorry might weigh seventy thousand pounds. Why?! This is what 'tons' are for (even if they don't use proper tons either.
Mind you, the documentary on the 1947 big freeze that was on C5 yesterday had a classic of that type, commenting that 61 billion litres of water flowed [somewhere, sometime] during the thaw. What is that supposed to look like?! This is why 'Olympic swimming pools' and 'Lake Ullswater's were invented.
Ah yes proper measures: tennis courts, football pitches, Wales, sheds, buses, swimming pools, etc. Not sure what they are for weight though.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Nothing from the sage of Islington, our very own superforecaster Leondamus?
I’m very competitive. I only enter contests I might win
The questions were really quite granular (and some of them in subjects that don’t interest me) - so I’m not going to research subjects for a prize I won’t even win
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
And yet, even before I was born, the grid on Ordnance Survey maps was based on metres and multiples thereof.
Well, the metre was originally defined as an even fraction of the distance from the pole to equator, so that kind of makes sense. The yard, believed to originate from the human pace, is just random in relation to geography. You'd end up with a bit left over.
The nautical mile was also originally based on a fraction of the distance from pole to equator, as 1 minute of arc. So by definition, 10,000 km = (60 x 90) = 5400 nautical miles.
Two historical notes on the Iowa caucuses: I have always wondered whether, in 2008, Obama got some illegal help from the Chicago organization. The Democratic caucuses have not been famous for their tight controls.
Before those caucuses, I disagreed with the common wisdom that Hilary Clinton had the nomination locked up, and pointed out that an early win by one of her opponents would give them momentum.
(FWIW, I don't think she would have been as bad a president as Obama was.)
She certainly would not have been as bad a President as Trump was.
I will admit to having had doubts on this point in 2016. Those who told me I was wrong, like @Foxy were more than justified, although I don't suppose they were entirely thrilled by the outcome.
I wonder though whether she would have beaten McCain. She was neither an effective campaigner nor a capable public speaker. Even if she was a good administrator (although the evidence is mixed on that) and she isn't stupid.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Electronic bathroom scales can be set to show kilograms, stones and pounds, or just pounds for any visiting Americans. I suspect most people do not know this and just use whatever is the manufacturer's default. Reading product manuals is for girly swots.
The only time I switch our bathroom scales to kilos is when weighing suitcases ahead of a holiday.
Otherwise stones and pounds. It is the only unit for people's weight* where I have any idea if they are light or heavy. It appears that I weigh 82 kg. I will no doubt have forgotten this by teatime.
*Strictly mass, but this isn't a physics class.
You are right of course, but it is only habit. if you leave them on kilos it will become the new norm (and it will be stones/pounds you will forget) and then it become convenient for doing the stuff where you have to weigh things in kilos by holding them and stepping on the scales (for us this is suitcases and the dog)
I used to use stones for weight but defaulted to kilos after having my BMI calculated a few times in medicals. It was just easier then to stick with kilos. I hover between 66 and 70kg. 70 acts as a useful ceiling.
I don’t have a strong preference either way, like language you use what you’re most familiar with. I have a random mix as do most Brits: kg and g for cooking, km for walking, miles for driving, MPG, pint of beer, ml for wine, C for temperature, both feet and inches and centimetres for height etc.
I really don’t think many people can be arsed to make a culture war battle out of weights and measures.
Agree. I am metric for just about everything except where doing so would be silly eg miles on the road, mpg, pints in the pub. However I do have a quirk in that I only know my height is in feet and inches. No idea what it is in metric, even though I measure everything else in millimetres, metres and kilometres. I suspect that is because I stopped growing when feet and inches were used for height so it has stuck with me and frankly I don't care.
Just bemused that @Luckyguy1983 thinks it is not old fashioned to stick with imperial. My grandparents were horrified when the currency went metric. I thought they were dinosaurs then. They couldn't see how stuff would become much easier. That was 70 years ago and @Luckyguy1983 still doesn't think that making such a change is moving with the times.
The only advantage of pounds over kilograms is that its easier to notice small changes without using decimals. Losing a kilo a week is improbable, but losing a pound or two a week is quite attainable. I've lost twenty pounds feels better to say than I've lost nine kilos, even if they're the same thing.
But I use pounds in a metric fashion, without any of that stones nonsense, I simply weigh how many pounds I am and note the change. Otherwise I'd definitely stick with kilos over converting stones into pounds and then noting the change.
Using pounds only is just American nonsense.
British stone for British bodies!
Quite. If you need to lose a stone, you need to lose a stone - no amount of poncing around with kilos is going to change that fact.
And a stone is just an arbitrary load of obsolete nonsense. If you need to lose 5 pounds or 5 kilograms then that's not a stone and messing around with stones achieves nothing. If you need to lose 10kg then you need to lose 10kg and no poncing around with stones changes that either.
What's the purpose of stones? Going from x pounds to (x - 2) pounds means you've lost two pounds. Going from x stone y pounds to (x-1) stone (y + 13) pounds also means you've lost two pounds but in a needlessly silly way of saying so.
Maybe there’s a difference between radical weight loss and precision weight management (ie poncing around with kilos). If you’re 25 stone and need to lose shed loads of weight in order to live beyond 50 then it makes sense to focus on large denominations. If you’re hovering around 67 kilos and want to fix at 67 precisely then you’ll go for kilos (or pounds).
Constantly changing denominations is pointless, we have a method of changing denominations without changing the unit which is to go from measuring units, to tens, to hundreds and so forth.
25 stone is "Biggest Loser" territory.
If you're going with an imperial system, why not say you're 350 pounds and aim to get to under 300 pounds as a major achievement on your way down, with all pounds measurable along the way.
Pounds as a decimal system are no different to kilos as a decimal system. Both are reasonable to use. The advantage of metric is it makes all conversions also similarly decimal by essentially eliminating them as unique conversions and just making them units of scale of the same thing.
Anyone interested in understanding longevity should learn about the Hispanic Paradox: "The Hispanic paradox is an epidemiological finding that Hispanic Americans tend to have health outcomes that "paradoxically" are comparable to, or in some cases better than, those of their U.S. non-Hispanic White counterparts, even though Hispanics have lower average income and education, higher rates of disability, as well as a higher incidence of various cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic diseases." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanic_paradox
(In my semi-informed opinion, stronger families and communities explain the "paradox'.)
Two historical notes on the Iowa caucuses: I have always wondered whether, in 2008, Obama got some illegal help from the Chicago organization. The Democratic caucuses have not been famous for their tight controls.
Before those caucuses, I disagreed with the common wisdom that Hilary Clinton had the nomination locked up, and pointed out that an early win by one of her opponents would give them momentum.
(FWIW, I don't think she would have been as bad a president as Obama was.)
She certainly would not have been as bad a President as Trump was.
I will admit to having had doubts on this point in 2016. Those who told me I was wrong, like @Foxy were more than justified, although I don't suppose they were entirely thrilled by the outcome.
I wonder though whether she would have beaten McCain. She was neither an effective campaigner nor a capable public speaker. Even if she was a good administrator (although the evidence is mixed on that) and she isn't stupid.
2008 was a “kick the GOP” election against the backdrop of the unpopular Bush administration and global financial crisis. In truth whoever the GOP put up would have struggled. I think Clinton would have been fine against McCain, but it’s all speculative now.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Stones? Its 2024 not 1924. Lets use proper measures.
Where do these new fangled “stones” come from?
How many stones to the talent?
Simples. A shekel = 8.25 grams, and there are 3,600 shekels to the talent. A talent weighs about 4 stone 9 pounds 8 oz.
These calculations are still daily essential in north Cumberland.
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Electronic bathroom scales can be set to show kilograms, stones and pounds, or just pounds for any visiting Americans. I suspect most people do not know this and just use whatever is the manufacturer's default. Reading product manuals is for girly swots.
The only time I switch our bathroom scales to kilos is when weighing suitcases ahead of a holiday.
Otherwise stones and pounds. It is the only unit for people's weight* where I have any idea if they are light or heavy. It appears that I weigh 82 kg. I will no doubt have forgotten this by teatime.
*Strictly mass, but this isn't a physics class.
You are right of course, but it is only habit. if you leave them on kilos it will become the new norm (and it will be stones/pounds you will forget) and then it become convenient for doing the stuff where you have to weigh things in kilos by holding them and stepping on the scales (for us this is suitcases and the dog)
I used to use stones for weight but defaulted to kilos after having my BMI calculated a few times in medicals. It was just easier then to stick with kilos. I hover between 66 and 70kg. 70 acts as a useful ceiling.
I don’t have a strong preference either way, like language you use what you’re most familiar with. I have a random mix as do most Brits: kg and g for cooking, km for walking, miles for driving, MPG, pint of beer, ml for wine, C for temperature, both feet and inches and centimetres for height etc.
I really don’t think many people can be arsed to make a culture war battle out of weights and measures.
Agree. I am metric for just about everything except where doing so would be silly eg miles on the road, mpg, pints in the pub. However I do have a quirk in that I only know my height is in feet and inches. No idea what it is in metric, even though I measure everything else in millimetres, metres and kilometres. I suspect that is because I stopped growing when feet and inches were used for height so it has stuck with me and frankly I don't care.
Just bemused that @Luckyguy1983 thinks it is not old fashioned to stick with imperial. My grandparents were horrified when the currency went metric. I thought they were dinosaurs then. They couldn't see how stuff would become much easier. That was 70 years ago and @Luckyguy1983 still doesn't think that making such a change is moving with the times.
The only advantage of pounds over kilograms is that its easier to notice small changes without using decimals. Losing a kilo a week is improbable, but losing a pound or two a week is quite attainable. I've lost twenty pounds feels better to say than I've lost nine kilos, even if they're the same thing.
But I use pounds in a metric fashion, without any of that stones nonsense, I simply weigh how many pounds I am and note the change. Otherwise I'd definitely stick with kilos over converting stones into pounds and then noting the change.
Using pounds only is just American nonsense.
British stone for British bodies!
Quite. If you need to lose a stone, you need to lose a stone - no amount of poncing around with kilos is going to change that fact.
Americans are even worse for using pounds as their *largest* unit of weight - so that a lorry might weigh seventy thousand pounds. Why?! This is what 'tons' are for (even if they don't use proper tons either.
Mind you, the documentary on the 1947 big freeze that was on C5 yesterday had a classic of that type, commenting that 61 billion litres of water flowed [somewhere, sometime] during the thaw. What is that supposed to look like?! This is why 'Olympic swimming pools' and 'Lake Ullswater's were invented.
Ah yes proper measures: tennis courts, football pitches, Wales, sheds, buses, swimming pools, etc. Not sure what they are for weight though.
They do have real merit though.
Also Belgiums. A competitor for Waleses. Useful in measuring Amazon deforestation.
As for weights isn’t a London Bus a unit of weight as well as length?
Pointless poll finding of the day: asked where they would like to live if they had to leave their own country, the Scots would come to England, the English to Australia, the Irish to America, most Scandinavians and the Baltics would move to Sweden, the Swedes to Norway, the Belgians to the Netherlands. Everyone else in western Europe would move to Switzerland (with the Swiss looking at France) and in central and eastern Europe to Germany.
Except for the Dutch, who for some bizarre reason want to move to Canada?
Presumably Canadians would move to Norway for the hotter climate.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
And yet, even before I was born, the grid on Ordnance Survey maps was based on metres and multiples thereof.
Well, the metre was originally defined as an even fraction of the distance from the pole to equator, so that kind of makes sense. The yard, believed to originate from the human pace, is just random in relation to geography. You'd end up with a bit left over.
The nautical mile was also originally based on a fraction of the distance from pole to equator, as 1 minute of arc. So by definition, 10,000 km = (60 x 90) = 5400 nautical miles.
Nautical miles are also a really neat and useful measure when having to calculate in your head on a geographic basis.
Incidentally, there are at least a couple of 'measured mile' setups on the British coast - one near St Abbs Head in Scotland, another in Cornwall. Called Admiralty Distance Poles, each consists of two sets of poles, exactly a nautical mile apart. In a ship, when you see two posts align, you set your timer, and stop it when the second set align. If you are going parallel to the coast, then you have traveled one nautical mile.
They were used to test the speed of ships; I've no idea if they're still used. The St Abbs ones are a bit of a bu**er to walk between; it'd probably be easier to swim...
I'm as negative as they come on Donald Trump's political prospects but even I find it hard to see him not bagging the Iowa caucuses.
So do I, in the sense he'll almost certainly top the poll.
But it's an expectation game. He's polling north of 50% in Iowa and north of 60% nationally. Suppose he emerges with just 40%, with 30% and 20% for Haley and DeSantis (in either order) and 10% the rest. The headline story at that point isn't "Trump wins!" It's that most Republicans are on the hunt for an alternative, it's surprisingly competitive, all eyes on New Hampshire etc.
New Hampshire is where Trump's wheels could come off.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
If it were up to me, I'd say no! Anyhow, you can't win by giving the same answers as everyone else. Even on average.
Just wait for Leon's, and do the opposite.
What can I say? I have more faith in the predictive powers of you all collectively than I do in myself as an individual.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
miles per litre would be a mix of metric and imperial. you'd use litres per kilometer or MPG. miles being the more important part of it because I want to know how far I can get on a tank of fuel.
we'd need to switch all measurements for distance and speed to metric for it to work. That's not happening any time soon but as fewer and fewer people use the other imperial measurements it might happen.
My car (German car originally sold in Japan) has kilometers per litre as the primary measure of fuel economy, which in my mind is easier to get my head around than the usual litres/100km metric measure.
9km/l is c.25mpg (multiply by 4.54 and divide by 1.61)
I just remember that 50mpg - which is typically what I get on my European road trips - is 17.7 km/L.
Ha, you have a newer car than me then, and probably not one with a 5 litre V8 under the bonnet!
But hey, I paid 60p a litre for petrol on the way to work this morning.
Though I'm curious who pays more (net) for their fuel.
Yes petrol's expensive here, but with my new car I filled my tank last week for just under £40.
Which has been a very pleasant surprise since I changed cars!
New cars are a lot more fuel efficient than old cars, almost all are now turbocharged or hybridised (or both) and there’s tighter standards to meet when new, aided by tax incentives on VED and fuel.
This does feed into reliability issues later on though, as the complex emissions systems become difficult to maintain over time. The peak of reliability was probably 2002-2012, when low-stress n/a engines dominated. Mine will run forever so long as I change the oil occasionally, although it does have air suspension which needed replacement of the rubber bags. They were designed as German taxis!
As @IanB2 suggested, his car is roughly twice as efficient as mine, and he pays roughly double for petrol, so it’s probably a wash.
M113 so the oil pump will transform itself to shrapnel at some point. If it's got the dreaded whine on startup then it's on the way out. Also MB, unlike BMW and Porsche, don't support cars for decades so some W211 parts are already unobtanium. I'd do it now if you are intending to keep it.
I went missing for two days in South Africa to track down and buy a barn find Bauer E30. Mrs DA did her fucking nut.
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Electronic bathroom scales can be set to show kilograms, stones and pounds, or just pounds for any visiting Americans. I suspect most people do not know this and just use whatever is the manufacturer's default. Reading product manuals is for girly swots.
The only time I switch our bathroom scales to kilos is when weighing suitcases ahead of a holiday.
Otherwise stones and pounds. It is the only unit for people's weight* where I have any idea if they are light or heavy. It appears that I weigh 82 kg. I will no doubt have forgotten this by teatime.
*Strictly mass, but this isn't a physics class.
You are right of course, but it is only habit. if you leave them on kilos it will become the new norm (and it will be stones/pounds you will forget) and then it become convenient for doing the stuff where you have to weigh things in kilos by holding them and stepping on the scales (for us this is suitcases and the dog)
I used to use stones for weight but defaulted to kilos after having my BMI calculated a few times in medicals. It was just easier then to stick with kilos. I hover between 66 and 70kg. 70 acts as a useful ceiling.
I don’t have a strong preference either way, like language you use what you’re most familiar with. I have a random mix as do most Brits: kg and g for cooking, km for walking, miles for driving, MPG, pint of beer, ml for wine, C for temperature, both feet and inches and centimetres for height etc.
I really don’t think many people can be arsed to make a culture war battle out of weights and measures.
Agree. I am metric for just about everything except where doing so would be silly eg miles on the road, mpg, pints in the pub. However I do have a quirk in that I only know my height is in feet and inches. No idea what it is in metric, even though I measure everything else in millimetres, metres and kilometres. I suspect that is because I stopped growing when feet and inches were used for height so it has stuck with me and frankly I don't care.
Just bemused that @Luckyguy1983 thinks it is not old fashioned to stick with imperial. My grandparents were horrified when the currency went metric. I thought they were dinosaurs then. They couldn't see how stuff would become much easier. That was 70 years ago and @Luckyguy1983 still doesn't think that making such a change is moving with the times.
The only advantage of pounds over kilograms is that its easier to notice small changes without using decimals. Losing a kilo a week is improbable, but losing a pound or two a week is quite attainable. I've lost twenty pounds feels better to say than I've lost nine kilos, even if they're the same thing.
But I use pounds in a metric fashion, without any of that stones nonsense, I simply weigh how many pounds I am and note the change. Otherwise I'd definitely stick with kilos over converting stones into pounds and then noting the change.
Using pounds only is just American nonsense.
British stone for British bodies!
Quite. If you need to lose a stone, you need to lose a stone - no amount of poncing around with kilos is going to change that fact.
Americans are even worse for using pounds as their *largest* unit of weight - so that a lorry might weigh seventy thousand pounds. Why?! This is what 'tons' are for (even if they don't use proper tons either.
Mind you, the documentary on the 1947 big freeze that was on C5 yesterday had a classic of that type, commenting that 61 billion litres of water flowed [somewhere, sometime] during the thaw. What is that supposed to look like?! This is why 'Olympic swimming pools' and 'Lake Ullswater's were invented.
Ah yes proper measures: tennis courts, football pitches, Wales, sheds, buses, swimming pools, etc. Not sure what they are for weight though.
They do have real merit though.
Also Belgiums. A competitor for Waleses. Useful in measuring Amazon deforestation.
As for weights isn’t a London Bus a unit of weight as well as length?
The 747 used to be a unit of weight. The metric equivalent is the A380.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
And yet, even before I was born, the grid on Ordnance Survey maps was based on metres and multiples thereof.
Well, the metre was originally defined as an even fraction of the distance from the pole to equator, so that kind of makes sense. The yard, believed to originate from the human pace, is just random in relation to geography. You'd end up with a bit left over.
The nautical mile was also originally based on a fraction of the distance from pole to equator, as 1 minute of arc. So by definition, 10,000 km = (60 x 90) = 5400 nautical miles.
You'd imagine a unit that varies with latitude would be a recipe for chaos but somehow it seems to work. Am I right in thinking that 10,000 km = 5400 NM only at the equator and not when paddling around Spitzbergen?
Do people remember the halcyon when ScotNat expat @StuartDickson used to regale us about the wonderfulness of social democratic and neutral Sweden, the go-to model for Indy Scotland?
Here is an extract from the latest post from Scottish political commentator Iain McWhirter on how the Nordics are swinging in 2024:
"In supposedly social democratic Sweden, a party that used with some justification to be called “neo-Nazi”, the Sweden Democrats has been driving events since it became the second largest party in the Rikstdag. Sweden has just announced that it will in future link foreign aid to repatriation of migrants, something not even Suella Braverman advocated.
"In October 2023, Sweden’s Moderate party prime minister, Ulph Kristersson, blamed the growing problem of gang violence on "an irresponsible immigration policy [and] parallel societies”. This pacific country now has the second highest gun crime death rate in Europe after Albania. Meanwhile, the populist, and increasingly popular leader of the Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Åkesson, has called for the demolition of mosques that spread anti-semitic and homophobic propaganda and for the army to be sent into migrant ghettos.
"In Denmark they’re already demolishing immigrant ghettos to reverse multiculturalism and promote “Danishness”. This supposedly left liberal country, immortalised in the TV series, Borgen, has the most restrictive immigration policies in Europe. The Social Democrat prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, has talked openly of a policy of “zero asylum seekers”. Refugees can be forced by law to hand over cash and valuables like jewellery to pay for their keep. Denmark has appalled the UN and refugee charities by reviewing the residence permits of hundreds of Syrian refugees and is actively seeking to send asylum seekers - guess where - to Rwanda for processing.
"In Finland, the Conservative leader, Petteri Orop, formed a new coalition in July 2023 that included the national populist True Finns. Leading members of this party have been exposed for making racist remarks in the past and as subscribing to the “replacement” theory that black and asian immigration is an attempt to obliterate white civilisation. In Norway, the anti-Islam Progress Party may no longer be in government since 2020 but it remains influential. In October, Norway joined Denmark, Finland and Sweden in an anti-migration pact to deport asylum seekers from “a Nordic country to a third country”. African countries may apply."
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
If it were up to me, I'd say no! Anyhow, you can't win by giving the same answers as everyone else. Even on average.
Just wait for Leon's, and do the opposite.
What can I say? I have more faith in the predictive powers of you all collectively than I do in myself as an individual.
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Electronic bathroom scales can be set to show kilograms, stones and pounds, or just pounds for any visiting Americans. I suspect most people do not know this and just use whatever is the manufacturer's default. Reading product manuals is for girly swots.
The only time I switch our bathroom scales to kilos is when weighing suitcases ahead of a holiday.
Otherwise stones and pounds. It is the only unit for people's weight* where I have any idea if they are light or heavy. It appears that I weigh 82 kg. I will no doubt have forgotten this by teatime.
*Strictly mass, but this isn't a physics class.
You are right of course, but it is only habit. if you leave them on kilos it will become the new norm (and it will be stones/pounds you will forget) and then it become convenient for doing the stuff where you have to weigh things in kilos by holding them and stepping on the scales (for us this is suitcases and the dog)
I used to use stones for weight but defaulted to kilos after having my BMI calculated a few times in medicals. It was just easier then to stick with kilos. I hover between 66 and 70kg. 70 acts as a useful ceiling.
I don’t have a strong preference either way, like language you use what you’re most familiar with. I have a random mix as do most Brits: kg and g for cooking, km for walking, miles for driving, MPG, pint of beer, ml for wine, C for temperature, both feet and inches and centimetres for height etc.
I really don’t think many people can be arsed to make a culture war battle out of weights and measures.
Agree. I am metric for just about everything except where doing so would be silly eg miles on the road, mpg, pints in the pub. However I do have a quirk in that I only know my height is in feet and inches. No idea what it is in metric, even though I measure everything else in millimetres, metres and kilometres. I suspect that is because I stopped growing when feet and inches were used for height so it has stuck with me and frankly I don't care.
Just bemused that @Luckyguy1983 thinks it is not old fashioned to stick with imperial. My grandparents were horrified when the currency went metric. I thought they were dinosaurs then. They couldn't see how stuff would become much easier. That was 70 years ago and @Luckyguy1983 still doesn't think that making such a change is moving with the times.
The only advantage of pounds over kilograms is that its easier to notice small changes without using decimals. Losing a kilo a week is improbable, but losing a pound or two a week is quite attainable. I've lost twenty pounds feels better to say than I've lost nine kilos, even if they're the same thing.
But I use pounds in a metric fashion, without any of that stones nonsense, I simply weigh how many pounds I am and note the change. Otherwise I'd definitely stick with kilos over converting stones into pounds and then noting the change.
Using pounds only is just American nonsense.
British stone for British bodies!
Quite. If you need to lose a stone, you need to lose a stone - no amount of poncing around with kilos is going to change that fact.
Americans are even worse for using pounds as their *largest* unit of weight - so that a lorry might weigh seventy thousand pounds. Why?! This is what 'tons' are for (even if they don't use proper tons either.
Mind you, the documentary on the 1947 big freeze that was on C5 yesterday had a classic of that type, commenting that 61 billion litres of water flowed [somewhere, sometime] during the thaw. What is that supposed to look like?! This is why 'Olympic swimming pools' and 'Lake Ullswater's were invented.
They didn't state the volume of water in acre-feet? Very disappointing.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Electronic bathroom scales can be set to show kilograms, stones and pounds, or just pounds for any visiting Americans. I suspect most people do not know this and just use whatever is the manufacturer's default. Reading product manuals is for girly swots.
The only time I switch our bathroom scales to kilos is when weighing suitcases ahead of a holiday.
Otherwise stones and pounds. It is the only unit for people's weight* where I have any idea if they are light or heavy. It appears that I weigh 82 kg. I will no doubt have forgotten this by teatime.
*Strictly mass, but this isn't a physics class.
You are right of course, but it is only habit. if you leave them on kilos it will become the new norm (and it will be stones/pounds you will forget) and then it become convenient for doing the stuff where you have to weigh things in kilos by holding them and stepping on the scales (for us this is suitcases and the dog)
I used to use stones for weight but defaulted to kilos after having my BMI calculated a few times in medicals. It was just easier then to stick with kilos. I hover between 66 and 70kg. 70 acts as a useful ceiling.
I don’t have a strong preference either way, like language you use what you’re most familiar with. I have a random mix as do most Brits: kg and g for cooking, km for walking, miles for driving, MPG, pint of beer, ml for wine, C for temperature, both feet and inches and centimetres for height etc.
I really don’t think many people can be arsed to make a culture war battle out of weights and measures.
Agree. I am metric for just about everything except where doing so would be silly eg miles on the road, mpg, pints in the pub. However I do have a quirk in that I only know my height is in feet and inches. No idea what it is in metric, even though I measure everything else in millimetres, metres and kilometres. I suspect that is because I stopped growing when feet and inches were used for height so it has stuck with me and frankly I don't care.
Just bemused that @Luckyguy1983 thinks it is not old fashioned to stick with imperial. My grandparents were horrified when the currency went metric. I thought they were dinosaurs then. They couldn't see how stuff would become much easier. That was 70 years ago and @Luckyguy1983 still doesn't think that making such a change is moving with the times.
The only advantage of pounds over kilograms is that its easier to notice small changes without using decimals. Losing a kilo a week is improbable, but losing a pound or two a week is quite attainable. I've lost twenty pounds feels better to say than I've lost nine kilos, even if they're the same thing.
But I use pounds in a metric fashion, without any of that stones nonsense, I simply weigh how many pounds I am and note the change. Otherwise I'd definitely stick with kilos over converting stones into pounds and then noting the change.
Using pounds only is just American nonsense.
British stone for British bodies!
Quite. If you need to lose a stone, you need to lose a stone - no amount of poncing around with kilos is going to change that fact.
Americans are even worse for using pounds as their *largest* unit of weight - so that a lorry might weigh seventy thousand pounds. Why?! This is what 'tons' are for (even if they don't use proper tons either.
Mind you, the documentary on the 1947 big freeze that was on C5 yesterday had a classic of that type, commenting that 61 billion litres of water flowed [somewhere, sometime] during the thaw. What is that supposed to look like?! This is why 'Olympic swimming pools' and 'Lake Ullswater's were invented.
Ah yes proper measures: tennis courts, football pitches, Wales, sheds, buses, swimming pools, etc. Not sure what they are for weight though.
They do have real merit though.
Also Belgiums. A competitor for Waleses. Useful in measuring Amazon deforestation.
As for weights isn’t a London Bus a unit of weight as well as length?
The 747 used to be a unit of weight. The metric equivalent is the A380.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
It absolutely is, yes. As famously observed by Francis Galton.*
* Not that Galton is someone anyone should seek to emulate.
Two historical notes on the Iowa caucuses: I have always wondered whether, in 2008, Obama got some illegal help from the Chicago organization. The Democratic caucuses have not been famous for their tight controls.
Before those caucuses, I disagreed with the common wisdom that Hilary Clinton had the nomination locked up, and pointed out that an early win by one of her opponents would give them momentum.
(FWIW, I don't think she would have been as bad a president as Obama was.)
She certainly would not have been as bad a President as Trump was.
I will admit to having had doubts on this point in 2016. Those who told me I was wrong, like @Foxy were more than justified, although I don't suppose they were entirely thrilled by the outcome.
I wonder though whether she would have beaten McCain. She was neither an effective campaigner nor a capable public speaker. Even if she was a good administrator (although the evidence is mixed on that) and she isn't stupid.
I think Clinton would have beaten McCain reasonably comfortably. It was a difficult election for the Republicans to win against the backdrop of an unpopular president and unfolding financial crisis. It was very much a "change election". McCain was probably the best candidate the GOP could realistically get in the circumstances in terms of being able to present themselves as the choice for change, but it wasn't a close election (indeed, the least close this century).
It's true that Obama had some definite advantages over Clinton in some respects. But it wasn't all one way traffic on that front - indeed, her experience would have been something of an asset in the context of the financial storm that dominated that election (and Obama's relative inexperience was used against him).
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
Anybody else in that post Christmas/New Year hell of trying to work out when the bloody recycling next gets collected? It's been so windy for so long, you can't just take a punt, cuz the designated boxes will be somewhere in Somerset by teatime...
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
And yet, even before I was born, the grid on Ordnance Survey maps was based on metres and multiples thereof.
Well, the metre was originally defined as an even fraction of the distance from the pole to equator, so that kind of makes sense. The yard, believed to originate from the human pace, is just random in relation to geography. You'd end up with a bit left over.
The nautical mile was also originally based on a fraction of the distance from pole to equator, as 1 minute of arc. So by definition, 10,000 km = (60 x 90) = 5400 nautical miles.
You'd imagine a unit that varies with latitude would be a recipe for chaos but somehow it seems to work. Am I right in thinking that 10,000 km = 5400 NM only at the equator and not when paddling around Spitzbergen?
Mixed radix measurements are generally for gammons except nautical miles which are very useful for dead reckoning and estimated positions due to the 6-3-1 minute rules.
6 minutes: distance travelled in nm = 1/10 speed in knots 3 minutes: distance travelled in hundreds of yards = speed in knots 1 minute: distance travelled in hundreds of feet = speed in knots
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Electronic bathroom scales can be set to show kilograms, stones and pounds, or just pounds for any visiting Americans. I suspect most people do not know this and just use whatever is the manufacturer's default. Reading product manuals is for girly swots.
The only time I switch our bathroom scales to kilos is when weighing suitcases ahead of a holiday.
Otherwise stones and pounds. It is the only unit for people's weight* where I have any idea if they are light or heavy. It appears that I weigh 82 kg. I will no doubt have forgotten this by teatime.
*Strictly mass, but this isn't a physics class.
You are right of course, but it is only habit. if you leave them on kilos it will become the new norm (and it will be stones/pounds you will forget) and then it become convenient for doing the stuff where you have to weigh things in kilos by holding them and stepping on the scales (for us this is suitcases and the dog)
I used to use stones for weight but defaulted to kilos after having my BMI calculated a few times in medicals. It was just easier then to stick with kilos. I hover between 66 and 70kg. 70 acts as a useful ceiling.
I don’t have a strong preference either way, like language you use what you’re most familiar with. I have a random mix as do most Brits: kg and g for cooking, km for walking, miles for driving, MPG, pint of beer, ml for wine, C for temperature, both feet and inches and centimetres for height etc.
I really don’t think many people can be arsed to make a culture war battle out of weights and measures.
Agree. I am metric for just about everything except where doing so would be silly eg miles on the road, mpg, pints in the pub. However I do have a quirk in that I only know my height is in feet and inches. No idea what it is in metric, even though I measure everything else in millimetres, metres and kilometres. I suspect that is because I stopped growing when feet and inches were used for height so it has stuck with me and frankly I don't care.
Just bemused that @Luckyguy1983 thinks it is not old fashioned to stick with imperial. My grandparents were horrified when the currency went metric. I thought they were dinosaurs then. They couldn't see how stuff would become much easier. That was 70 years ago and @Luckyguy1983 still doesn't think that making such a change is moving with the times.
The only advantage of pounds over kilograms is that its easier to notice small changes without using decimals. Losing a kilo a week is improbable, but losing a pound or two a week is quite attainable. I've lost twenty pounds feels better to say than I've lost nine kilos, even if they're the same thing.
But I use pounds in a metric fashion, without any of that stones nonsense, I simply weigh how many pounds I am and note the change. Otherwise I'd definitely stick with kilos over converting stones into pounds and then noting the change.
Using pounds only is just American nonsense.
British stone for British bodies!
Quite. If you need to lose a stone, you need to lose a stone - no amount of poncing around with kilos is going to change that fact.
Americans are even worse for using pounds as their *largest* unit of weight - so that a lorry might weigh seventy thousand pounds. Why?! This is what 'tons' are for (even if they don't use proper tons either.
Mind you, the documentary on the 1947 big freeze that was on C5 yesterday had a classic of that type, commenting that 61 billion litres of water flowed [somewhere, sometime] during the thaw. What is that supposed to look like?! This is why 'Olympic swimming pools' and 'Lake Ullswater's were invented.
Ah yes proper measures: tennis courts, football pitches, Wales, sheds, buses, swimming pools, etc. Not sure what they are for weight though.
They do have real merit though.
Also Belgiums. A competitor for Waleses. Useful in measuring Amazon deforestation.
As for weights isn’t a London Bus a unit of weight as well as length?
And "Homes" is, to my perpetual annoyance, the standard unit of power output from a wind farm or power station.
Jumbo Jet is also used for something or other. Mass or length? I'm not sure.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
Miles are also better for song lyrics
"I would walk 100 miles..." just wouldn't work as kilometres
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
Hope you didn't save the Smarties given your new diet.
If it's right, tactical voting levels make a massive difference to the eventual outcome. E.g. Lab 40% and Con 30% can produce a hung parliament or a working majority of 240+, depending on the level of tactical voting.
First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting 32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.
Debilitating cough doesn't help!
Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
Electronic bathroom scales can be set to show kilograms, stones and pounds, or just pounds for any visiting Americans. I suspect most people do not know this and just use whatever is the manufacturer's default. Reading product manuals is for girly swots.
The only time I switch our bathroom scales to kilos is when weighing suitcases ahead of a holiday.
Otherwise stones and pounds. It is the only unit for people's weight* where I have any idea if they are light or heavy. It appears that I weigh 82 kg. I will no doubt have forgotten this by teatime.
*Strictly mass, but this isn't a physics class.
You are right of course, but it is only habit. if you leave them on kilos it will become the new norm (and it will be stones/pounds you will forget) and then it become convenient for doing the stuff where you have to weigh things in kilos by holding them and stepping on the scales (for us this is suitcases and the dog)
I used to use stones for weight but defaulted to kilos after having my BMI calculated a few times in medicals. It was just easier then to stick with kilos. I hover between 66 and 70kg. 70 acts as a useful ceiling.
I don’t have a strong preference either way, like language you use what you’re most familiar with. I have a random mix as do most Brits: kg and g for cooking, km for walking, miles for driving, MPG, pint of beer, ml for wine, C for temperature, both feet and inches and centimetres for height etc.
I really don’t think many people can be arsed to make a culture war battle out of weights and measures.
Agree. I am metric for just about everything except where doing so would be silly eg miles on the road, mpg, pints in the pub. However I do have a quirk in that I only know my height is in feet and inches. No idea what it is in metric, even though I measure everything else in millimetres, metres and kilometres. I suspect that is because I stopped growing when feet and inches were used for height so it has stuck with me and frankly I don't care.
Just bemused that @Luckyguy1983 thinks it is not old fashioned to stick with imperial. My grandparents were horrified when the currency went metric. I thought they were dinosaurs then. They couldn't see how stuff would become much easier. That was 70 years ago and @Luckyguy1983 still doesn't think that making such a change is moving with the times.
The only advantage of pounds over kilograms is that its easier to notice small changes without using decimals. Losing a kilo a week is improbable, but losing a pound or two a week is quite attainable. I've lost twenty pounds feels better to say than I've lost nine kilos, even if they're the same thing.
But I use pounds in a metric fashion, without any of that stones nonsense, I simply weigh how many pounds I am and note the change. Otherwise I'd definitely stick with kilos over converting stones into pounds and then noting the change.
Using pounds only is just American nonsense.
British stone for British bodies!
Quite. If you need to lose a stone, you need to lose a stone - no amount of poncing around with kilos is going to change that fact.
Americans are even worse for using pounds as their *largest* unit of weight - so that a lorry might weigh seventy thousand pounds. Why?! This is what 'tons' are for (even if they don't use proper tons either.
Mind you, the documentary on the 1947 big freeze that was on C5 yesterday had a classic of that type, commenting that 61 billion litres of water flowed [somewhere, sometime] during the thaw. What is that supposed to look like?! This is why 'Olympic swimming pools' and 'Lake Ullswater's were invented.
Ah yes proper measures: tennis courts, football pitches, Wales, sheds, buses, swimming pools, etc. Not sure what they are for weight though.
They do have real merit though.
Also Belgiums. A competitor for Waleses. Useful in measuring Amazon deforestation.
As for weights isn’t a London Bus a unit of weight as well as length?
And "Homes" is, to my perpetual annoyance, the standard unit of power output from a wind farm or power station.
Jumbo Jet is also used for something or other. Mass or length? I'm not sure.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
Uncanny! Is this how you arrive at your micro-economic narrative?
Anybody else in that post Christmas/New Year hell of trying to work out when the bloody recycling next gets collected? It's been so windy for so long, you can't just take a punt, cuz the designated boxes will be somewhere in Somerset by teatime...
Does your council not have a "put the address in and it tells you the collection dates" website page?
Two historical notes on the Iowa caucuses: I have always wondered whether, in 2008, Obama got some illegal help from the Chicago organization. The Democratic caucuses have not been famous for their tight controls.
Before those caucuses, I disagreed with the common wisdom that Hilary Clinton had the nomination locked up, and pointed out that an early win by one of her opponents would give them momentum.
(FWIW, I don't think she would have been as bad a president as Obama was.)
I realize that JM has something of a wee obsession about the infamy of Obama and all his works.
However, might be useful to ask, what in your view would constitute "illegal help" from "the Chicago organization"?
Note that back in 1988, there were PLENTY of volunteers from Chicago AND other parts of Cook County and elsewhere in Illinois, who came on weekends & the like, to volunteer for then-Illinois US Senator and POTUS candidate Paul Simon.
Some where from the Daley camp (now defunct as far as I can tell) who were part of the then-Cook Co Democratic organization; others were liberal progressives who where NOT part of the "machine".
Nothing illegal about that.
So WTF is it that you're saying? Though please DO be careful how you say it, on here anyway!
Once again coding HTML on client website. Client clearly wants my focus to be on Other Things, but when I ask if they will provide additional resource the answer is that we need to "muddle through".
Good! So I will get on with coding then. As there is nobody else to do it.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
Uncanny! Is this how you arrive at your micro-economic narrative?
You mean by using logic, reasoning and sound arithmetic?
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
Miles are also better for song lyrics
"I would walk 100 miles..." just wouldn't work as kilometres
Even worse - the old Who song: I can see for kilometers and kilometers and kilometers and kilometers and kilometers.... - wouldn't work at all.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
Miles are also better for song lyrics
"I would walk 100 miles..." just wouldn't work as kilometres
Even worse - the old Who song: I can see for kilometers and kilometers and kilometers.... - wouldn't work at all.
The abbreviation klics, while less euphonic, would work in most circumstances.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
I think I disagree on the former and agree on the latter. IMHO if Biden had any intention of withdrawing in favour of somebody else under any contingencies, he would have played the last year or so differently. As it is we are in a position where there is no even halfway plausible alternative or obvious successor to him on the D side, because nobody else has felt able to try to put their case (understandable since running against a sitting President is disruptive to the party). If Biden had had "maybe I won't run" seriously in mind I think he would have been preparing the party to be in reasonable shape for that transition. And the timetable doesn't work for the D party to wait until the R candidate is clear to pick their candidate, because none of the even remotely possible alternatives are on the primary ballot, so it won't be a "Biden drops out and the second placed runner takes over" situation. (Entry for the South Carolina primary closed way back in early November, for example.)
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
If it's right, tactical voting levels make a massive difference to the eventual outcome. E.g. Lab 40% and Con 30% can produce a hung parliament or a working majority of 240+, depending on the level of tactical voting.
Remember, the Conservative vote share barely moved from '79 to '92, or from '15 to '19.
What changed was the ratio of centre left parties fighting each other to centre left parties fighting the Conservatives. ("The honourable gentlemen on the other benches are the Opposition, my dear boy. The energy are on this side" as the old joke goes.)
Damn hard to measure or put in a swingometer, but decisive all the same.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
Miles are also better for song lyrics
"I would walk 100 miles..." just wouldn't work as kilometres
Even worse - the old Who song: I can see for kilometers and kilometers and kilometers.... - wouldn't work at all.
The abbreviation klics, while less euphonic, would work in most circumstances.
The Yardbirds should retrospectively change their name to The Metrebirds.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
One of the girls has a large 3d printed robot that I won that I think the University of Sunderland were running.
It was literally a question of working out how tall the final print was and times that by the time it took the printer to print 1mm.
They were surprised when my estimate matched the final print time to the second, I thought it was obvious
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Nah, the election will be October and not May as parties trailing in the polls by double-digits don't call an early election.
The only way the election would have been early is if they'd tried and succeeded in something which could turn the polls around.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
And yet, even before I was born, the grid on Ordnance Survey maps was based on metres and multiples thereof.
Well, the metre was originally defined as an even fraction of the distance from the pole to equator, so that kind of makes sense. The yard, believed to originate from the human pace, is just random in relation to geography. You'd end up with a bit left over.
The nautical mile was also originally based on a fraction of the distance from pole to equator, as 1 minute of arc. So by definition, 10,000 km = (60 x 90) = 5400 nautical miles.
You'd imagine a unit that varies with latitude would be a recipe for chaos but somehow it seems to work. Am I right in thinking that 10,000 km = 5400 NM only at the equator and not when paddling around Spitzbergen?
Mixed radix measurements are generally for gammons except nautical miles which are very useful for dead reckoning and estimated positions due to the 6-3-1 minute rules.
6 minutes: distance travelled in nm = 1/10 speed in knots 3 minutes: distance travelled in hundreds of yards = speed in knots 1 minute: distance travelled in hundreds of feet = speed in knots
Fuckin' hell aren't there computers for this kind of thing.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=366190 ...Last June, Korea scrapped its traditional age-counting method that considers every person as 1 year old on the day they are born and adds another year to everyone on Jan. 1, regardless of a person's date of birth.
...Korean language is one of the few languages in the world that uses appellation instead of second-person pronouns to highlight politeness toward a listener, and the age gap between a speaker and a listener has been one of the key factors determining the form of address, the linguist explained.
That is why Koreans had maintained the traditional age counting system to add a year to one's age on New Year's Day to keep the age differences among people the same throughout the year, she said.
"For example, let's say one was born on March 1 and another was born on May 1 of the same year. If the two meet on Feb. 28 in Korea, they would be friends and say to each other ‘hey.' However, two days later, their ages would be different and the one born in May would have to call another ‘hyeong,' ‘oppa' or another title," she said, highlighting the importance of age in Korean society...
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
True but we have a shedload fewer Albanians coming over than we did. But for some reason it's about boats.
Trevor Phillips, when talking about the Windrush on a recent podcast, wryly (and astutely) observed that since pre-conqueror times we Brits* have always had a thing about boats.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
I think I disagree on the former and agree on the latter. IMHO if Biden had any intention of withdrawing in favour of somebody else under any contingencies, he would have played the last year or so differently. As it is we are in a position where there is no even halfway plausible alternative or obvious successor to him on the D side, because nobody else has felt able to try to put their case (understandable since running against a sitting President is disruptive to the party). If Biden had had "maybe I won't run" seriously in mind I think he would have been preparing the party to be in reasonable shape for that transition. And the timetable doesn't work for the D party to wait until the R candidate is clear to pick their candidate, because none of the even remotely possible alternatives are on the primary ballot, so it won't be a "Biden drops out and the second placed runner takes over" situation. (Entry for the South Carolina primary closed way back in early November, for example.)
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
I think I disagree on the former and agree on the latter. IMHO if Biden had any intention of withdrawing in favour of somebody else under any contingencies, he would have played the last year or so differently. As it is we are in a position where there is no even halfway plausible alternative or obvious successor to him on the D side, because nobody else has felt able to try to put their case (understandable since running against a sitting President is disruptive to the party). If Biden had had "maybe I won't run" seriously in mind I think he would have been preparing the party to be in reasonable shape for that transition. And the timetable doesn't work for the D party to wait until the R candidate is clear to pick their candidate, because none of the even remotely possible alternatives are on the primary ballot, so it won't be a "Biden drops out and the second placed runner takes over" situation. (Entry for the South Carolina primary closed way back in early November, for example.)
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
I'm not betting big at the moment on these or any other long-term markets because of interest rates but my stance on the US election is surprisingly simple this time:
1) If Trump is nominee Democrats win 2) If not Trump then Republicans win 3) If not Trump AND Dems choose a female nominee the Republicans win EC and popular vote.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
Against which (and what drove my Biden beats Haley prediction): if Haley beats Trump to the GOP nomination and unholy mix of Trump standing as an independent and/or Trump write-ins, plus MAGA stay-aways would be enough to scupper Haley imo.
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Nah, the election will be October and not May as parties trailing in the polls by double-digits don't call an early election.
The only way the election would have been early is if they'd tried and succeeded in something which could turn the polls around.
Since that's not happening, May is ruled out.
Ruled out by you. Not ruled out by them. BTW October is an "early election" - it isn't due until January 2025.
"Ah but they won't do January that would be madness" "It's too dark in December" They've been told they can't have one running in parallel to the US GE in case that turns into shitsville The King is out of the country in October "September means campaigning when their supporters are on holiday" etc etc etc
There are no good dates when you are this behind in the polls. So they need to do something to try and get them moving, And they have - the autumn statement and coming early budget followed by a cut and run STARMER HAS NO PLANS AND WOULD TAX YOU A BAZILLION POUNDS STOP THE FOREIGNERS STOPPING US STOPPING THE BOATS election.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
Against which (and what drove my Biden beats Haley prediction): if Haley beats Trump to the GOP nomination and unholy mix of Trump standing as an independent and/or Trump write-ins, plus MAGA stay-aways would be enough to scupper Haley imo.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
When a child, I once won a year's supply of Cossack hairspray for my dad.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
I think I disagree on the former and agree on the latter. IMHO if Biden had any intention of withdrawing in favour of somebody else under any contingencies, he would have played the last year or so differently. As it is we are in a position where there is no even halfway plausible alternative or obvious successor to him on the D side, because nobody else has felt able to try to put their case (understandable since running against a sitting President is disruptive to the party). If Biden had had "maybe I won't run" seriously in mind I think he would have been preparing the party to be in reasonable shape for that transition. And the timetable doesn't work for the D party to wait until the R candidate is clear to pick their candidate, because none of the even remotely possible alternatives are on the primary ballot, so it won't be a "Biden drops out and the second placed runner takes over" situation. (Entry for the South Carolina primary closed way back in early November, for example.)
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
What if it were Harris versus Haley ?
Not sure -- my impression is that Harris has not really got much popularity, and she didn't campaign very impressively in the 2020 primaries, but I haven't been paying enough attention to US politics to be able to say. I do think that the only way we get to a Harris vs Haley contest is if Biden unexpectedly has to drop out at the last minute due to serious health issues or similar, and there's no time for anything except "run with the VP". (Fingers crossed this doesn't happen.)
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
When a child, I once won a year's supply of Cossack hairspray for my dad.
Beat that.
Few of us can claim Cossack paternity, so it would be tough.
Many years ago at the game fair a friend I was attending with won a Peugeot 309 in a raffle at one of the stands. That imo takes some beating because aside from this I've never known anyone, and certainly haven't myself, won anything in any draw or raffle or lottery.
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Nah, the election will be October and not May as parties trailing in the polls by double-digits don't call an early election.
The only way the election would have been early is if they'd tried and succeeded in something which could turn the polls around.
Since that's not happening, May is ruled out.
Ruled out by you. Not ruled out by them. BTW October is an "early election" - it isn't due until January 2025.
"Ah but they won't do January that would be madness" "It's too dark in December" They've been told they can't have one running in parallel to the US GE in case that turns into shitsville The King is out of the country in October "September means campaigning when their supporters are on holiday" etc etc etc
There are no good dates when you are this behind in the polls. So they need to do something to try and get them moving, And they have - the autumn statement and coming early budget followed by a cut and run STARMER HAS NO PLANS AND WOULD TAX YOU A BAZILLION POUNDS STOP THE FOREIGNERS STOPPING US STOPPING THE BOATS election.
They don't need to do something to try and get them moving, the alternative option is to effectively give up, hope for something to turn up, and otherwise drag it out as late as they reasonably can - which is October. Were it not for Christmas, I'd say January 2025 was nailed on.
Though in the event they do go for an anti-immigration election then it will make my decision who to vote for easy. Currently I'm leaning Lib Dem, but if the Tories go anti-immigration as their cause then I will vote Labour.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
Can we have the summary update before entry closing? It’s just that I would like to enter the mean (or mode) of everyone else’s answers, but can’t be bothered going through to work that out myself. ;-)
I have read that this is the best way to win a "guess the weight of the cake" or "how many sweets in the jar" competition.
I won a "how many smarties in the jar" competition when I was a child. I guessed something like 1560 when it was something like 1554 - I remember, I guessed the answer to within 10. Won the jar of smarties.
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
When a child, I once won a year's supply of Cossack hairspray for my dad.
Beat that.
Few of us can claim Cossack paternity, so it would be tough.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
Against which (and what drove my Biden beats Haley prediction): if Haley beats Trump to the GOP nomination and unholy mix of Trump standing as an independent and/or Trump write-ins, plus MAGA stay-aways would be enough to scupper Haley imo.
Wouldn't this potentially be more than balanced by reduced propensity for left wing Democrats to hold their nose and vote for Biden, and increased propensity for independents to vote for change rather than a somewhat unpopular incumbent?
Remember that Trump isn't just a motivating presence on the ballot paper for his supporters.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
I think I disagree on the former and agree on the latter. IMHO if Biden had any intention of withdrawing in favour of somebody else under any contingencies, he would have played the last year or so differently. As it is we are in a position where there is no even halfway plausible alternative or obvious successor to him on the D side, because nobody else has felt able to try to put their case (understandable since running against a sitting President is disruptive to the party). If Biden had had "maybe I won't run" seriously in mind I think he would have been preparing the party to be in reasonable shape for that transition. And the timetable doesn't work for the D party to wait until the R candidate is clear to pick their candidate, because none of the even remotely possible alternatives are on the primary ballot, so it won't be a "Biden drops out and the second placed runner takes over" situation. (Entry for the South Carolina primary closed way back in early November, for example.)
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
What if it were Harris versus Haley ?
Haley by a country mile (insert km equiv.).
My long-held belief is that in the US a female candidate from the right is far more readily accepted than one from the left.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
I think I disagree on the former and agree on the latter. IMHO if Biden had any intention of withdrawing in favour of somebody else under any contingencies, he would have played the last year or so differently. As it is we are in a position where there is no even halfway plausible alternative or obvious successor to him on the D side, because nobody else has felt able to try to put their case (understandable since running against a sitting President is disruptive to the party). If Biden had had "maybe I won't run" seriously in mind I think he would have been preparing the party to be in reasonable shape for that transition. And the timetable doesn't work for the D party to wait until the R candidate is clear to pick their candidate, because none of the even remotely possible alternatives are on the primary ballot, so it won't be a "Biden drops out and the second placed runner takes over" situation. (Entry for the South Carolina primary closed way back in early November, for example.)
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
I'm not betting big at the moment on these or any other long-term markets because of interest rates but my stance on the US election is surprisingly simple this time:
1) If Trump is nominee Democrats win 2) If not Trump then Republicans win 3) If not Trump AND Dems choose a female nominee the Republicans win EC and popular vote.
Yes, that is what makes Kitchencabinet's odds of 33/1 on a 'pardon for Biden' unattractive as a lay, even though in reality they should be something like 1000/1, or 10,000/1.
It's worth considering such bets on the US presidential market, as over time you can stack up several such lays (Michelle Obama, and Ramaswany, for example) which are effectively complementary.
The oddball Biden pardon thing doesn't really work for any such scheme.
Anybody else in that post Christmas/New Year hell of trying to work out when the bloody recycling next gets collected? It's been so windy for so long, you can't just take a punt, cuz the designated boxes will be somewhere in Somerset by teatime...
If it's any help ours was last Thursday. The lazy persons took two whole days off for Christmas so were two days late.
Anybody else in that post Christmas/New Year hell of trying to work out when the bloody recycling next gets collected? It's been so windy for so long, you can't just take a punt, cuz the designated boxes will be somewhere in Somerset by teatime...
Does your council not have a "put the address in and it tells you the collection dates" website page?
It does, but.... It is saying the collection will be Saturday. Now, never having seen any weekend collections, ever, it is asking me to believe in one impossible thing before breakfast.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
I think I disagree on the former and agree on the latter. IMHO if Biden had any intention of withdrawing in favour of somebody else under any contingencies, he would have played the last year or so differently. As it is we are in a position where there is no even halfway plausible alternative or obvious successor to him on the D side, because nobody else has felt able to try to put their case (understandable since running against a sitting President is disruptive to the party). If Biden had had "maybe I won't run" seriously in mind I think he would have been preparing the party to be in reasonable shape for that transition. And the timetable doesn't work for the D party to wait until the R candidate is clear to pick their candidate, because none of the even remotely possible alternatives are on the primary ballot, so it won't be a "Biden drops out and the second placed runner takes over" situation. (Entry for the South Carolina primary closed way back in early November, for example.)
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
What if it were Harris versus Haley ?
Haley by a country mile (insert km equiv.)
My long-held belief is that in the US a female candidate from the right is far more readily accepted than one from the left.
A generation ago the same was suggested that the first black President would come from the GOP, with talk of Colin Powell etc, but then Obama came along.
The issue isn't that America isn't ready for a female Democratic President, its that all the potential female Democratic candidates are shit.
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
And yet, even before I was born, the grid on Ordnance Survey maps was based on metres and multiples thereof.
Well, the metre was originally defined as an even fraction of the distance from the pole to equator, so that kind of makes sense. The yard, believed to originate from the human pace, is just random in relation to geography. You'd end up with a bit left over.
The nautical mile was also originally based on a fraction of the distance from pole to equator, as 1 minute of arc. So by definition, 10,000 km = (60 x 90) = 5400 nautical miles.
You'd imagine a unit that varies with latitude would be a recipe for chaos but somehow it seems to work. Am I right in thinking that 10,000 km = 5400 NM only at the equator and not when paddling around Spitzbergen?
Mixed radix measurements are generally for gammons except nautical miles which are very useful for dead reckoning and estimated positions due to the 6-3-1 minute rules.
6 minutes: distance travelled in nm = 1/10 speed in knots 3 minutes: distance travelled in hundreds of yards = speed in knots 1 minute: distance travelled in hundreds of feet = speed in knots
Fuckin' hell aren't there computers for this kind of thing.
Not when you sit the written exam for your sailor’s (or pilot’s) licence.
You have to know where you are, when all the modern technology runs out of batteries.
Quick update on the PB Predictions Competition: The following 45 posters have entered so far, if you think you have entered and are not on the list either PM me or post on here. Cheers!
(Snip)
I'll aim to post a summary update after the entry closing (end of Saturday 6 January).
I missed the competition, what is it please so I can enter?
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
I think I disagree on the former and agree on the latter. IMHO if Biden had any intention of withdrawing in favour of somebody else under any contingencies, he would have played the last year or so differently. As it is we are in a position where there is no even halfway plausible alternative or obvious successor to him on the D side, because nobody else has felt able to try to put their case (understandable since running against a sitting President is disruptive to the party). If Biden had had "maybe I won't run" seriously in mind I think he would have been preparing the party to be in reasonable shape for that transition. And the timetable doesn't work for the D party to wait until the R candidate is clear to pick their candidate, because none of the even remotely possible alternatives are on the primary ballot, so it won't be a "Biden drops out and the second placed runner takes over" situation. (Entry for the South Carolina primary closed way back in early November, for example.)
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
What if it were Harris versus Haley ?
Haley by a country mile (insert km equiv.)
My long-held belief is that in the US a female candidate from the right is far more readily accepted than one from the left.
A generation ago the same was suggested that the first black President would come from the GOP, with talk of Colin Powell etc, but then Obama came along.
The issue isn't that America isn't ready for a female Democratic President, its that all the potential female Democratic candidates are shit.
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Nah, the election will be October and not May as parties trailing in the polls by double-digits don't call an early election.
The only way the election would have been early is if they'd tried and succeeded in something which could turn the polls around.
Since that's not happening, May is ruled out.
Ruled out by you. Not ruled out by them. BTW October is an "early election" - it isn't due until January 2025.
"Ah but they won't do January that would be madness" "It's too dark in December" They've been told they can't have one running in parallel to the US GE in case that turns into shitsville The King is out of the country in October "September means campaigning when their supporters are on holiday" etc etc etc
There are no good dates when you are this behind in the polls. So they need to do something to try and get them moving, And they have - the autumn statement and coming early budget followed by a cut and run STARMER HAS NO PLANS AND WOULD TAX YOU A BAZILLION POUNDS STOP THE FOREIGNERS STOPPING US STOPPING THE BOATS election.
They are behind in the polls. They will have the election at the very last moment. There is always time value (wherein inflation can come down, wages can tick up, strikes get settled, etc) which means it is always stupid to exercise early.
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
True but we have a shedload fewer Albanians coming over than we did. But for some reason it's about boats.
Trevor Phillips, when talking about the Windrush on a recent podcast, wryly (and astutely) observed that since pre-conqueror times we Brits* have always had a thing about boats.
*Yes I know.
It's actually quite hard, pre about 1910, what else to look out for if you are trying to spot an invasion. In Switzerland however.....
Typical for Britain our weights and measures are an absurd hodgepodge - like the language.
The most absurd of absurd is "Miles per Gallon" when we stopped selling road fuels in gallons an eternity ago. We managed to get our heads around the gallons to litres switch, but didn't at the same time adopt Miles per Litre.
Miles are an odd one. I definitely use them for driving / travel, but when doing exercise its kilometers.
Miles are also better for song lyrics
"I would walk 100 miles..." just wouldn't work as kilometres
Even worse - the old Who song: I can see for kilometers and kilometers and kilometers and kilometers and kilometers.... - wouldn't work at all.
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Nah, the election will be October and not May as parties trailing in the polls by double-digits don't call an early election.
The only way the election would have been early is if they'd tried and succeeded in something which could turn the polls around.
Since that's not happening, May is ruled out.
Ruled out by you. Not ruled out by them. BTW October is an "early election" - it isn't due until January 2025.
"Ah but they won't do January that would be madness" "It's too dark in December" They've been told they can't have one running in parallel to the US GE in case that turns into shitsville The King is out of the country in October "September means campaigning when their supporters are on holiday" etc etc etc
There are no good dates when you are this behind in the polls. So they need to do something to try and get them moving, And they have - the autumn statement and coming early budget followed by a cut and run STARMER HAS NO PLANS AND WOULD TAX YOU A BAZILLION POUNDS STOP THE FOREIGNERS STOPPING US STOPPING THE BOATS election.
They are behind in the polls. They will have the election at the very last moment. There is always time value (wherein inflation can come down, wages can tick up, strikes get settled, etc) which means it is always stupid to exercise early.
Things could get worse as easily as getting better.
Many years ago at the game fair a friend I was attending with won a Peugeot 309 in a raffle at one of the stands. That imo takes some beating because aside from this I've never known anyone, and certainly haven't myself, won anything in any draw or raffle or lottery.
And a Peugeot 309 at that. What luxury.
Not exactly a raffle, but in terms of lucky outcomes, a couple of years back I was doing a tidy-sized (near £300) pre-Christmas M&S shop when the till refused to accept my card in payment. Turns out it was a freebie, courtesy of the Sparks card. There were quite a few bottles in there, including a fabulous Madiran for about £8 a bottle.
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Nah, the election will be October and not May as parties trailing in the polls by double-digits don't call an early election.
The only way the election would have been early is if they'd tried and succeeded in something which could turn the polls around.
Since that's not happening, May is ruled out.
Ruled out by you. Not ruled out by them. BTW October is an "early election" - it isn't due until January 2025.
"Ah but they won't do January that would be madness" "It's too dark in December" They've been told they can't have one running in parallel to the US GE in case that turns into shitsville The King is out of the country in October "September means campaigning when their supporters are on holiday" etc etc etc
There are no good dates when you are this behind in the polls. So they need to do something to try and get them moving, And they have - the autumn statement and coming early budget followed by a cut and run STARMER HAS NO PLANS AND WOULD TAX YOU A BAZILLION POUNDS STOP THE FOREIGNERS STOPPING US STOPPING THE BOATS election.
They don't need to do something to try and get them moving, the alternative option is to effectively give up, hope for something to turn up, and otherwise drag it out as late as they reasonably can - which is October. Were it not for Christmas, I'd say January 2025 was nailed on.
Though in the event they do go for an anti-immigration election then it will make my decision who to vote for easy. Currently I'm leaning Lib Dem, but if the Tories go anti-immigration as their cause then I will vote Labour.
Need to separate two things.
The way to maximise the likely number of Conservative MPs in 2025 is to go in May. I'm sure that's what Sunak's spreadsheet (he SOOOO has one, which he's frantically doing a goal seek to get a Conservative majority on) is telling him. But if he goes in May, he loses.
So the price of doing that is to bring a premature end to the political careers of Rishi, most of the Cabinet (opposition spokesing really doesn't count) and a lot of MPs.
It would be a remarkably selfless politician who was willing to pay that price.
SUNAK: Stop The Boats CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Nah, the election will be October and not May as parties trailing in the polls by double-digits don't call an early election.
The only way the election would have been early is if they'd tried and succeeded in something which could turn the polls around.
Since that's not happening, May is ruled out.
Ruled out by you. Not ruled out by them. BTW October is an "early election" - it isn't due until January 2025.
"Ah but they won't do January that would be madness" "It's too dark in December" They've been told they can't have one running in parallel to the US GE in case that turns into shitsville The King is out of the country in October "September means campaigning when their supporters are on holiday" etc etc etc
There are no good dates when you are this behind in the polls. So they need to do something to try and get them moving, And they have - the autumn statement and coming early budget followed by a cut and run STARMER HAS NO PLANS AND WOULD TAX YOU A BAZILLION POUNDS STOP THE FOREIGNERS STOPPING US STOPPING THE BOATS election.
They are behind in the polls. They will have the election at the very last moment. There is always time value (wherein inflation can come down, wages can tick up, strikes get settled, etc) which means it is always stupid to exercise early.
Things could get worse as easily as getting better.
True but it is the potential for things to get better that gives the unexpired option its value.
Comments
'Startling' rise in child arrests in London over extreme Right-wing terrorism, Met chief warns
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4643780/#Comment_4643780
They do have real merit though.
The questions were really quite granular (and some of them in subjects that don’t interest me) - so I’m not going to research subjects for a prize I won’t even win
Also, I get a lot of free champagne in my job
11) Will ray-gun toting super aliens land and make all of above irrelevant?
So by definition, 10,000 km = (60 x 90) = 5400 nautical miles.
I will admit to having had doubts on this point in 2016. Those who told me I was wrong, like @Foxy were more than justified, although I don't suppose they were entirely thrilled by the outcome.
I wonder though whether she would have beaten McCain. She was neither an effective campaigner nor a capable public speaker. Even if she was a good administrator (although the evidence is mixed on that) and she isn't stupid.
This was an interesting analysis at the time: https://paullinford.blogspot.com/2008/01/us-elections.html (although he turned out to be wrong about the Republicans gambling on Romney if Obama was the candidate).
25 stone is "Biggest Loser" territory.
If you're going with an imperial system, why not say you're 350 pounds and aim to get to under 300 pounds as a major achievement on your way down, with all pounds measurable along the way.
Pounds as a decimal system are no different to kilos as a decimal system. Both are reasonable to use. The advantage of metric is it makes all conversions also similarly decimal by essentially eliminating them as unique conversions and just making them units of scale of the same thing.
Think I might pop in one of the cannabis shops. You gotta have SOMETHING
"The Hispanic paradox is an epidemiological finding that Hispanic Americans tend to have health outcomes that "paradoxically" are comparable to, or in some cases better than, those of their U.S. non-Hispanic White counterparts, even though Hispanics have lower average income and education, higher rates of disability, as well as a higher incidence of various cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic diseases."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanic_paradox
(In my semi-informed opinion, stronger families and communities explain the "paradox'.)
Another time maybe.
Betting the odds on Trump’s Supreme Court case
https://thehill.com/opinion/4380182-betting-the-odds-on-trumps-supreme-court-case/
But whichever of the many possible outcomes the court opts for, each would, as the article points out, open their own particular can of worms.
It did not contain a ray-gun.
These calculations are still daily essential in north Cumberland.
As for weights isn’t a London Bus a unit of weight as well as length?
Incidentally, there are at least a couple of 'measured mile' setups on the British coast - one near St Abbs Head in Scotland, another in Cornwall. Called Admiralty Distance Poles, each consists of two sets of poles, exactly a nautical mile apart. In a ship, when you see two posts align, you set your timer, and stop it when the second set align. If you are going parallel to the coast, then you have traveled one nautical mile.
They were used to test the speed of ships; I've no idea if they're still used. The St Abbs ones are a bit of a bu**er to walk between; it'd probably be easier to swim...
Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nautical_measured_mile
https://www.secretscotland.org.uk/index.php/Secrets/MeasuredMiles
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024.
11%
2. Date of the next UK General Election.
24 October 2024
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called
Unchanged: Sunak, Starmer, Davey and Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%).
Labour majority 58 seats
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems.
Trump and Biden.
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner.
Biden
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024.
5.25%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%).
2.2%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn).
£106.8bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64).
69
I went missing for two days in South Africa to track down and buy a barn find Bauer E30. Mrs DA did her fucking nut.
The metric equivalent is the A380.
Here is an extract from the latest post from Scottish political commentator Iain McWhirter on how the Nordics are swinging in 2024:
"In supposedly social democratic Sweden, a party that used with some justification to be called “neo-Nazi”, the Sweden Democrats has been driving events since it became the second largest party in the Rikstdag. Sweden has just announced that it will in future link foreign aid to repatriation of migrants, something not even Suella Braverman advocated.
"In October 2023, Sweden’s Moderate party prime minister, Ulph Kristersson, blamed the growing problem of gang violence on "an irresponsible immigration policy [and] parallel societies”. This pacific country now has the second highest gun crime death rate in Europe after Albania. Meanwhile, the populist, and increasingly popular leader of the Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Åkesson, has called for the demolition of mosques that spread anti-semitic and homophobic propaganda and for the army to be sent into migrant ghettos.
"In Denmark they’re already demolishing immigrant ghettos to reverse multiculturalism and promote “Danishness”. This supposedly left liberal country, immortalised in the TV series, Borgen, has the most restrictive immigration policies in Europe. The Social Democrat prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, has talked openly of a policy of “zero asylum seekers”. Refugees can be forced by law to hand over cash and valuables like jewellery to pay for their keep. Denmark has appalled the UN and refugee charities by reviewing the residence permits of hundreds of Syrian refugees and is actively seeking to send asylum seekers - guess where - to Rwanda for processing.
"In Finland, the Conservative leader, Petteri Orop, formed a new coalition in July 2023 that included the national populist True Finns. Leading members of this party have been exposed for making racist remarks in the past and as subscribing to the “replacement” theory that black and asian immigration is an attempt to obliterate white civilisation. In Norway, the anti-Islam Progress Party may no longer be in government since 2020 but it remains influential. In October, Norway joined Denmark, Finland and Sweden in an anti-migration pact to deport asylum seekers from “a Nordic country to a third country”. African countries may apply."
My predictions.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024.
9%
2. Date of the next UK General Election.
2nd May 2024
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called
Unchanged: Sunak, Starmer, Davey and Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%).
Labour majority of 88.
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems.
Trump and Newsom.
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner.
Trump
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024.
4.25%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%).
0.5%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn).
£126bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64).
50
I did it by counting how many smarties across made a row, how many smarties deep were in a row, and how many rows in total there were, then doing the maths.
* Not that Galton is someone anyone should seek to emulate.
It's true that Obama had some definite advantages over Clinton in some respects. But it wasn't all one way traffic on that front - indeed, her experience would have been something of an asset in the context of the financial storm that dominated that election (and Obama's relative inexperience was used against him).
If it IS Biden vs Haley then I'd confidently predict Haley.
6 minutes: distance travelled in nm = 1/10 speed in knots
3 minutes: distance travelled in hundreds of yards = speed in knots
1 minute: distance travelled in hundreds of feet = speed in knots
Jumbo Jet is also used for something or other. Mass or length? I'm not sure.
Will pay for forthcoming skiing break with Mrs Stocky.
"I would walk 100 miles..." just wouldn't work as kilometres
https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24Simulator/
If it's right, tactical voting levels make a massive difference to the eventual outcome. E.g. Lab 40% and Con 30% can produce a hung parliament or a working majority of 240+, depending on the level of tactical voting.
However, might be useful to ask, what in your view would constitute "illegal help" from "the Chicago organization"?
Note that back in 1988, there were PLENTY of volunteers from Chicago AND other parts of Cook County and elsewhere in Illinois, who came on weekends & the like, to volunteer for then-Illinois US Senator and POTUS candidate Paul Simon.
Some where from the Daley camp (now defunct as far as I can tell) who were part of the then-Cook Co Democratic organization; others were liberal progressives who where NOT part of the "machine".
Nothing illegal about that.
So WTF is it that you're saying? Though please DO be careful how you say it, on here anyway!
Good! So I will get on with coding then. As there is nobody else to do it.
CLEVERLEY: I pledge to Stop The Boats
NO 10: Hang on lets not get too hasty, nobody ever said Stop The Boats
This is why the election will be May and not October. They need to say "we will Stop The Boats by quitting the ECHR and towing Rwanda back to France if you Vote Conservative". No use saying "I know we failed to Stop The Boats but actually we never said we would Stop The Boats actually" in October having failed.
Whoever saw that coming?
Agreed that if it ends up that way Haley is favourite, though I'm not super confident -- mostly working on the basis that as a comparative unknown she gets the benefit of not being widely disliked and a big turnout motivator the way Trump is.
What changed was the ratio of centre left parties fighting each other to centre left parties fighting the Conservatives. ("The honourable gentlemen on the other benches are the Opposition, my dear boy. The energy are on this side" as the old joke goes.)
Damn hard to measure or put in a swingometer, but decisive all the same.
It was literally a question of working out how tall the final print was and times that by the time it took the printer to print 1mm.
They were surprised when my estimate matched the final print time to the second, I thought it was obvious
The only way the election would have been early is if they'd tried and succeeded in something which could turn the polls around.
Since that's not happening, May is ruled out.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=366190
...Last June, Korea scrapped its traditional age-counting method that considers every person as 1 year old on the day they are born and adds another year to everyone on Jan. 1, regardless of a person's date of birth.
...Korean language is one of the few languages in the world that uses appellation instead of second-person pronouns to highlight politeness toward a listener, and the age gap between a speaker and a listener has been one of the key factors determining the form of address, the linguist explained.
That is why Koreans had maintained the traditional age counting system to add a year to one's age on New Year's Day to keep the age differences among people the same throughout the year, she said.
"For example, let's say one was born on March 1 and another was born on May 1 of the same year. If the two meet on Feb. 28 in Korea, they would be friends and say to each other ‘hey.' However, two days later, their ages would be different and the one born in May would have to call another ‘hyeong,' ‘oppa' or another title," she said, highlighting the importance of age in Korean society...
Trevor Phillips, when talking about the Windrush on a recent podcast, wryly (and astutely) observed that since pre-conqueror times we Brits* have always had a thing about boats.
*Yes I know.
1) If Trump is nominee Democrats win
2) If not Trump then Republicans win
3) If not Trump AND Dems choose a female nominee the Republicans win EC and popular vote.
"Ah but they won't do January that would be madness"
"It's too dark in December"
They've been told they can't have one running in parallel to the US GE in case that turns into shitsville
The King is out of the country in October
"September means campaigning when their supporters are on holiday"
etc
etc
etc
There are no good dates when you are this behind in the polls. So they need to do something to try and get them moving, And they have - the autumn statement and coming early budget followed by a cut and run STARMER HAS NO PLANS AND WOULD TAX YOU A BAZILLION POUNDS STOP THE FOREIGNERS STOPPING US STOPPING THE BOATS election.
Beat that.
And a Peugeot 309 at that. What luxury.
Though in the event they do go for an anti-immigration election then it will make my decision who to vote for easy. Currently I'm leaning Lib Dem, but if the Tories go anti-immigration as their cause then I will vote Labour.
Remember that Trump isn't just a motivating presence on the ballot paper for his supporters.
My long-held belief is that in the US a female candidate from the right is far more readily accepted than one from the left.
It's worth considering such bets on the US presidential market, as over time you can stack up several such lays (Michelle Obama, and Ramaswany, for example) which are effectively complementary.
The oddball Biden pardon thing doesn't really work for any such scheme.
The issue isn't that America isn't ready for a female Democratic President, its that all the potential female Democratic candidates are shit.
You have to know where you are, when all the modern technology runs out of batteries.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-poll-gov-whitmer-ten-points-more-favorable-than-president-biden-in-michigan/
Which was nice.
The way to maximise the likely number of Conservative MPs in 2025 is to go in May. I'm sure that's what Sunak's spreadsheet (he SOOOO has one, which he's frantically doing a goal seek to get a Conservative majority on) is telling him. But if he goes in May, he loses.
So the price of doing that is to bring a premature end to the political careers of Rishi, most of the Cabinet (opposition spokesing really doesn't count) and a lot of MPs.
It would be a remarkably selfless politician who was willing to pay that price.
NEW THREAD