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Just two weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses – politicalbetting.com

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  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    Andy_JS said:

    Article from about 18 months ago.

    "Cashless society is killing off the traditional coin-operated public phone box"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-10952227/Cashless-society-killing-phone-box-one-call-save-yours.html

    I thought they were all being used as hotels for asylum seeking books these days

    In London, I can’t remember the last time I saw a phone box that was actually a phone box. Rather than repurposed.
    I am loving the idea that it was a cashless society and not mobile phones that killed off phone boxes.
    Indeed. Especially since even vending machines are going cashless.
    They’ve been cashless for years.

    I even had a cabbie tell me off for trying to pay him with cash.

    He hates carrying cash as it is a security risk and the nearest branch is 40 mins away.
    It's changed quickly though.

    Ten years ago I remember you had to have cash to get a cab, or you couldn't get home.
    Caught a taxi home yesterday. Paid cash. This is the norm with Bradford taxis.

    Half way home, looked at the meter - remembered it is a higher rate on New Year's Day!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258

    DavidL said:

    First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting
    32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.

    Debilitating cough doesn't help!

    Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
    That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
    Given that Boris has lost about 83kg, judging by his latest video, Just Do What Boris Did
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    On topic, the question for predicting the Iowa caucuses is always who has the largest number of committed followers? Wide-but-shallow support doesn't get you anywhere there; deep support does.

    But surely of all the candidates, Trump is the one with the deep support, as well as the wide support. There might well be a few flaky backers of his put off by his legal problems but those type of people were never going to spend 3 hours arguing the toss on a cold winter's evening anyway; the devoted MAGAs will.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783

    MattW said:

    I'll predict - having had a quick look at the trials and judgements Trump is facing in January - that the wheels are finally going to start to come off.

    And that some of it *may* be in time to have an impact for the Iowa caucuses.

    I'd like to think you're right, but his entire movement is fuelled by grievance, and the court stuff is grist to his mill.
    Agree, but the E Jean Caroll trial might be interesting because it is very clear cut with the courts having made the original decision followed by a blatant repeat of the defamation. Is this then not grounds for punatitive damaged which could be financially damaging to Trump. Anyone here know about US civil law?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
  • PoulterPoulter Posts: 62
    edited January 2
    ydoethur said:

    Crazy predictions for 2024.

    Just to give everyone a bit of a giggle here is a list of things that definitely will not happen because they are so very very silly.
    [...]
    4) The republican nominee will be somebody sane and the democratic nominee will be somebody aged below 107.

    The second part of that isn't so unlikely. Biden looks awful. He's sane, though, and so are most of the other Dem leaders, so it will have been noticed. Harris is amazing value at 60 for the presidency.

    Does Biden even want to stay in office? What he may want to do is pick his successor who will honour him. That would mean Harris, surely. If that's how it goes, he'll have to get the timing right because she's crap and she might not win a wide-open contest for the nomination. Standing against a lunatic Republican candidate is a different matter. In a choice between crap and civil war (with what could well be a higher death count than the first one), sane voters choose crap.

    MattW said:

    I'll predict - having had a quick look at the trials and judgements Trump is facing in January - that the wheels are finally going to start to come off.

    And that some of it *may* be in time to have an impact for the Iowa caucuses.

    There are both Civil and Criminal cases in New York for a start.

    \None of the cases, other than the property valuation one in New York, are expected to finish until months down the line when most of the primary process is done.
    Yes, people watching non-Fox news will see evidence being given and analysed during the trials, but Fox will cover as little as possible, as will the right wing online sources.
    So by the time the verdicts come down, and anything seeps into the brains of the Trump supporters, it's high;y likely he'll be unassailable for the nomination.
    He's not unassailable for anything.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsHoTj-bScY
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Nigelb said:

    On the topic of thin skinned politicians.

    Boebert faults Ryan Reynolds, Barbra Streisand for her district switch
    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4384160-boebert-faults-ryan-reynolds-barbra-streisand-district-switch/
    ...“It’s coming from Hollywood when you have Barbra Streisand coming in and donating to the Democrat, when you have Ryan Reynolds coming in and donating to the Democrat,” she said. “It shows you that Hollywood is trying to buy their way into Congress.”
    According to Federal Election Commission filings, Streisand donated $1,000 to Frisch’s campaign in April, while Reynolds donated $500 in March...

    It’s funny isn’t it. For years the GOP used the money is free speech argument when it came to donations but now they are getting outspent by the Dems….
    Congress has really gone downhill if you can try to buy a seat for $1500.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting
    32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.

    Debilitating cough doesn't help!

    Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
    That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
    Given that Boris has lost about 83kg, judging by his latest video, Just Do What Boris Did
    How has your weight loss gone @Leon ? Well I hope.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    DavidL said:

    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    We are being fed nonsense about hitting Net Zero in X years time. All that is really happening is an attempt to slow the rate of increase of annual CO2 output.

    Even when it starts to fall it is still massive.

    CO2 is like inflation. Governments want you to think that 'reduction in inflation' means prices are falling. So 'Reduction in CO2' means less CO2 in the atmosphere. It means more. If the output is slowed a bit it delayed the predicted crisis a few years. Which is why, unless the science is wrong or something clever is designed, we are in trouble.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited January 2

    A less than happy start to 2024 in Japan...

    Japan Airlines plane in flames on the runway at Tokyo's Haneda Airport

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-67862011

    All 379 passengers and crew evacuated thankfully

    Looks like they are letting it burn out - amazing coverage on Sky
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting
    32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.

    Debilitating cough doesn't help!

    Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
    That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
    Given that Boris has lost about 83kg, judging by his latest video, Just Do What Boris Did
    How has your weight loss gone @Leon ? Well I hope.
    Down about 5kg, but it’s taken aaaaaaages. And, of course, not helped by the festive season - it’s impossible to avoid weight gain at Xmas unless you are actually Scrooge, and a recluse

    Since Xmas day I am strictly fasting (as mentioned above) and feeling better for it. Also, as I have likewise mentioned, my booze intake is significantly reduced
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802
    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Andy_JS said:

    Article from about 18 months ago.

    "Cashless society is killing off the traditional coin-operated public phone box"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-10952227/Cashless-society-killing-phone-box-one-call-save-yours.html

    I thought they were all being used as hotels for asylum seeking books these days

    In London, I can’t remember the last time I saw a phone box that was actually a phone box. Rather than repurposed.
    I am loving the idea that it was a cashless society and not mobile phones that killed off phone boxes.
    Indeed. Especially since even vending machines are going cashless.
    They’ve been cashless for years.

    I even had a cabbie tell me off for trying to pay him with cash.

    He hates carrying cash as it is a security risk and the nearest branch is 40 mins away.
    It's changed quickly though.

    Ten years ago I remember you had to have cash to get a cab, or you couldn't get home.
    Caught a taxi home yesterday. Paid cash. This is the norm with Bradford taxis.

    Half way home, looked at the meter - remembered it is a higher rate on New Year's Day!
    It really is quite tricky. There truly are 'cash only' outfits; 'non-cash only' outfits, and others. A lot of the smaller others actually have preferences that are hard to guess. Some smaller others like cash because it's easy, some don't like it because it is hard and dangerous. But often when I ask what is preferred, it's cash.

    BTW has anyone thought it would be a good idea, in this land where lots of people travel beyond their village tribe, to have a nationally understood method of paying for parking your car from Wick to Penzance. TfL could be in charge. At the moment its complexities are legion.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    edited January 2
    It would be genuinely interesting to know what happened to Boris (in terms of weight loss)

    He wrote a column a few months back saying he’d tried Ozempic and it didn’t work. Now suddenly he appears 10kg lighter - to an almost alarming extent

    One hopes he isn’t ill - but what did it?!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    It’s like they forgot Russia could

    1. Buy more missiles

    2. Make more missiles
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802

    DavidL said:

    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    But some, although not all, that progress by the US and EU has been achieved precisely by outsourcing to China and India!
    I'd be curious to see what percentage, I suspect its rather small actually, given that much carbon usage is for sunk domestic things like heating, transportation, other domestic usage etc and not just industry.

    Which is why "cumulative" carbon emissions charts are absolute batcrap crazy nonsense. The fact that people in the UK heated their homes by burning coal in fireplaces in the past, and that our electricity was coal powered in the past, has absolutely nothing to do with emissions today.

    EDIT: DavidL is quite right
    I think that you should just stop there....

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,556
    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    I'll predict - having had a quick look at the trials and judgements Trump is facing in January - that the wheels are finally going to start to come off.

    And that some of it *may* be in time to have an impact for the Iowa caucuses.

    I'd like to think you're right, but his entire movement is fuelled by grievance, and the court stuff is grist to his mill.
    Agree, but the E Jean Caroll trial might be interesting because it is very clear cut with the courts having made the original decision followed by a blatant repeat of the defamation. Is this then not grounds for punatitive damaged which could be financially damaging to Trump. Anyone here know about US civil law?
    It pretty much follows in the US as in the UK - if you want to be a complete dick, then don't do so when antagonising the court. As Rudy Giuliani discovered, being a dick here and being a dick there - then soon those punitive damages mean you owe an additional $75m...

    Hoping Trump is in the tens of millions too.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    DavidL said:

    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    But some, although not all, that progress by the US and EU has been achieved precisely by outsourcing to China and India!
    Someone was trying to tell me recently how clean Norway is, because apparently everything there is absolutely net Zero; this person continued to discount their oil and gas exports. The delusions are multifaceted and egregious. It has overall a sense of a very big lie.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802
    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Re Toyko plane fire it is being reported it collided with a coast guard plane and 5 coast guard members unaccounted for
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,873

    Well.

    Mhairi Black has said she was always “uncomfortable” with the SNP’s singular reliance on Nicola Sturgeon’s personality to promote the party.

    The nationalists’ deputy leader at Westminster said that her former leader’s departure from office was “quite healthy because I’m a big believer in politics should be about policy as opposed to personality”.

    Black said that she has not missed Sturgeon since Scotland’s longest-serving first minister quit last spring but predicted that she would “still have a part to play in future years”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-cult-of-personality-was-uncomfortable-says-black-5gv7rqtqs

    Standards have slipped at The Times. Does the second "she" in Black said that she has not missed Sturgeon since Scotland’s longest-serving first minister quit last spring but predicted that she would “still have a part to play in future years” refer to Black or Sturgeon? (Tbf, it might be more obvious in the context of the whole article, which is paywalled.

    Also, when did we (or newspapers generally) stop capitalising First Minister and Prime Minister and so on?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Full day fasts I don't get. 16/8 seems manageable. Am working my way towards doing that for the last few days this week. Its also about *what* I am eating / drinking. I honestly think much of the grazing is because I have been (low - medium levels) depressed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    Not this again. No-one (as far as I recall) said that Russia could not manufacture new missiles. What people said - accurately, I believe - is that they'd run out of old stocks of missiles, and were increasingly relying heavily on new builds of stuff.

    Before this last week, we had not seen large missile attacks for some time - seemingly because Russia was stockpiling.

    If they keep up this sort of rate for weeks, then you may have a point.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Fasting takes some getting used to. But your body does adjust - and then it is an easier route to weight loss - also good for you in multiple ways, as many studies have now shown

    If you have really bad dips in energy and blood sugar eat some fruit, that normally solves it. A humble banana - and then you can drive again.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,815

    Re Toyko plane fire it is being reported it collided with a coast guard plane and 5 coast guard members unaccounted for

    Jeez, not a lucky 2024 so far for the Japanese :(
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited January 2

    Re Toyko plane fire it is being reported it collided with a coast guard plane and 5 coast guard members unaccounted for

    It does look like the plane could have hit something on the runway, from this video.

    https://x.com/southasiaindex/status/1742117171323351506?s=61

    An engine explosion doesn’t leave a static fireball behind it.

    Plane is a brand new A350 apparently, which has never crashed, so unlikely to be a malfunction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Andy_JS said:

    Article from about 18 months ago.

    "Cashless society is killing off the traditional coin-operated public phone box"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-10952227/Cashless-society-killing-phone-box-one-call-save-yours.html

    I thought they were all being used as hotels for asylum seeking books these days

    In London, I can’t remember the last time I saw a phone box that was actually a phone box. Rather than repurposed.
    I am loving the idea that it was a cashless society and not mobile phones that killed off phone boxes.
    Indeed. Especially since even vending machines are going cashless.
    They’ve been cashless for years.

    I even had a cabbie tell me off for trying to pay him with cash.

    He hates carrying cash as it is a security risk and the nearest branch is 40 mins away.
    It's changed quickly though.

    Ten years ago I remember you had to have cash to get a cab, or you couldn't get home.
    The continuing shrinkage in the bank branch and later the ATM network are signifcant accelerants for the shift away from cash (and cheques; getting one is a real nuisance now, if you don't live in the middle of a larger town). Hopefully cheques will be abolished soon.

    And probably one of the contributing reasons why the PO didn't query the rise in fraud during the early stages of the scandal, since as bank branches became more remote, most small businesses started taking their cash instead to local sub post offices, and a lot more cash was going through SPSOs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,953
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    Tbf there did seem to be a prevalent view on here that this was the case, with cries of 'Putin's little helpers' against anyone who suggested this might be a tad optimistic.
  • PoulterPoulter Posts: 62
    edited January 2

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Full day fasts I don't get. 16/8 seems manageable. Am working my way towards doing that for the last few days this week. Its also about *what* I am eating / drinking. I honestly think much of the grazing is because I have been (low - medium levels) depressed.
    Full-day fasts are fine for those who want to do them, but they are not necessary. E.g. another tack is to have a couple of boiled eggs with some toast for breakfast every day, and maybe some plain yogurt or kefir in the afternoon, and don't eat anything else, and do that for a few days and you will lose weight fast.

    I lost 3.5 stone in 3.5 months a few years ago. For much of that period I craved food all the time, but curiously when I came off the diet I wasn't so interested in food. Breaking bad habits is all about willpower. Not that that's a controversial statement.
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Fasting takes some getting used to. But your body does adjust - and then it is an easier route to weight loss - also good for you in multiple ways, as many studies have now shown

    If you have really bad dips in energy and blood sugar eat some fruit, that normally solves it. A humble banana - and then you can drive again.
    Eating bananas is also good against depression.
  • kjh said:

    MattW said:

    I'll predict - having had a quick look at the trials and judgements Trump is facing in January - that the wheels are finally going to start to come off.

    And that some of it *may* be in time to have an impact for the Iowa caucuses.

    I'd like to think you're right, but his entire movement is fuelled by grievance, and the court stuff is grist to his mill.
    Agree, but the E Jean Caroll trial might be interesting because it is very clear cut with the courts having made the original decision followed by a blatant repeat of the defamation. Is this then not grounds for punatitive damaged which could be financially damaging to Trump. Anyone here know about US civil law?
    Defamation law will vary from state to state. However, I know E Jean Carroll is seeking $10 million PLUS punitive damages in her latest action. So it could be a big number, albeit not likely to be on the level of the Giuliani's $148 million in Georgia (which will most likely be reduced on appeal).

    I don't think this is likely to have that much impact on the election, though. Financially, Trump will fundraise on the back of the case, whilst appeals mean he's not likely to need to pay this year.

    Trump running into the sand financially is also just a bit of an idle fantasy for liberals, unfortunately. He's nowhere near as rich as he likes to claim (including, where convenient, in his businesses' financial records - the source of one of his legal woes). But he has the huge advantage, unlike Giuliani, of owing a vast amount of money. As the saying goes, if you owe the bank a million, the bank has you by the balls... but if you owe the bank a billion, you have the bank by the balls. Trump will always get a line of credit, as it never makes financial sense for creditors to cut him adrift.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,367
    edited January 2
    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Article from about 18 months ago.

    "Cashless society is killing off the traditional coin-operated public phone box"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-10952227/Cashless-society-killing-phone-box-one-call-save-yours.html

    I thought they were all being used as hotels for asylum seeking books these days

    In London, I can’t remember the last time I saw a phone box that was actually a phone box. Rather than repurposed.
    I am loving the idea that it was a cashless society and not mobile phones that killed off phone boxes.
    Indeed. Especially since even vending machines are going cashless.
    They’ve been cashless for years.

    I even had a cabbie tell me off for trying to pay him with cash.

    He hates carrying cash as it is a security risk and the nearest branch is 40 mins away.
    It's changed quickly though.

    Ten years ago I remember you had to have cash to get a cab, or you couldn't get home.
    Caught a taxi home yesterday. Paid cash. This is the norm with Bradford taxis.

    Half way home, looked at the meter - remembered it is a higher rate on New Year's Day!
    It really is quite tricky. There truly are 'cash only' outfits; 'non-cash only' outfits, and others. A lot of the smaller others actually have preferences that are hard to guess. Some smaller others like cash because it's easy, some don't like it because it is hard and dangerous. But often when I ask what is preferred, it's cash.

    BTW has anyone thought it would be a good idea, in this land where lots of people travel beyond their village tribe, to have a nationally understood method of paying for parking your car from Wick to Penzance. TfL could be in charge. At the moment its complexities are legion.
    That’s currently being worked on
    https://takes.jamesomalley.co.uk/p/rishis-stupid-plan-for-drivers-actually (that’s a free article you need to scroll down to the National Parking Platform (NPP) bit) is an overview and the readers of that mailing list sanity checked the proposed numbering system to ensure it works (probably saving whoever is doing it £500,000 in consultancy fees).

    Hint a lot of clever people are often willing to give their expertise for free if the problem is interesting and they can see a vague benefit from it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2
    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    An easier, or maybe less extreme, way of doing this is to follow the intermittent fasting advice of John Schaefer Health on Instagram.

    https://www.instagram.com/johnschaeferhealth?igsh=MTh2MmJoNnpyYXBhZg==

    In short;
    don’t eat until midday,
    drink about three litres of water a day,
    have a big protein packed meal
    Afternoon snack can be protein bar or shake
    Eat whatever you like for dinner
    Aim for 10,000 steps a day

    Your target weight in pounds *12 is your daily maximum calories
    Your target weight in pounds *0.6 is your daily minimum protein in grams

    I was 12st6 this time last year, and was 11st 9 after 4-5 months doing this. Actually was too skinny so I’ve just put it back on, but it’s handy to have a system which works if needed

    His main advice is that diets you can’t imagine doing forever aren’t worth doing, so don’t bother


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    We are being fed nonsense about hitting Net Zero in X years time. All that is really happening is an attempt to slow the rate of increase of annual CO2 output.

    Even when it starts to fall it is still massive.

    CO2 is like inflation. Governments want you to think that 'reduction in inflation' means prices are falling. So 'Reduction in CO2' means less CO2 in the atmosphere. It means more. If the output is slowed a bit it delayed the predicted crisis a few years. Which is why, unless the science is wrong or something clever is designed, we are in trouble.
    The earth has the capacity to absorb a certain amount of carbon. Indeed life on earth, specifically vegetable life, is entirely based on this capacity. How much it can absorb at any given time depends on a lot of factors such as the extent of forestry and microscopic sea life. What is clear is that by reversing millions of years of carbon capture in burning fossil fuels we are exceeding that capacity. By how much is not entirely clear but it seems to be substantial and growing (given the reduction in forestry, acidification of the oceans, disruption of peatlands etc.).

    It is not obvious to me, despite the declared intentions of many, especially western politicians, that we have the collective will to address this. I fear major disasters, combined with terrible loss of life, are going to be necessary for this to change.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,107
    I'm as negative as they come on Donald Trump's political prospects but even I find it hard to see him not bagging the Iowa caucuses.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    They did run out of missiles (more or less). They then made and bought more.

    But the more relevant question here is what effect these new attacks will have on:
    - the front line
    - Ukrainian morale
    - Ukrainian war-making capacity
    - Russia morale
    - Western support
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    DavidL said:

    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Seems quite reasonable point of view to me.

    Ukraine is the test and the west is failing.
    I don't think that the West, and in particular the US, has failed in Ukraine. But there is a fear that it might, particularly if Trump were re-elected at which point it will be faites vos jouz for all of America's erstwhile allies, including us.
    There is a school of thought that suggests that the Pax Americana since 1945 has been mostly bad for the British state. Forced decolonialisation of the Empire, rampart stealing of our advanced technology from nuclear to aerospace, the crushing of any attempt at independent leadership, major intervention in Ireland, etc. etc.

    However, if the US did smash the European security architecture, and walk away from NATO and the Anglosphere then British "eternal interests" are going to be totally upended...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    But some, although not all, that progress by the US and EU has been achieved precisely by outsourcing to China and India!
    Someone was trying to tell me recently how clean Norway is, because apparently everything there is absolutely net Zero; this person continued to discount their oil and gas exports. The delusions are multifaceted and egregious. It has overall a sense of a very big lie.
    As you probably know, Norway set out to squirrel away as much of its oil revenues as possible, into its wealth fund, which now entirely funds their relatively generous state pension as well as loads of infrastructure projects. Driving about it's impossible to miss the money that's been spent on projects that probably weren't, without the windfall funding, economically viable, such as dramatic bridges in remote areas and long tunnels through remote mountains or beneath the sea.

    So despite being a major oil producer it was from the start one of the pioneers of renewable energy. Hydro produces a significant part of their domestic energy, and there are some giant hydro plants almost hidden from view inside mountains and the like. Plus of course Norway is windy. Norway was a pioneer in electric vehicles and has the largest proportion of electric cars on the road of any country in the world; despite its size and rugged remoteness, the EV charging network is very good. Many of the ferries that cross the fjords are electric, and as they come into dock the first thing that gets done is swinging the charging boom across so that the batteries get a quick recharge every time it stops to unload and load. And I believe they're pretty hot on reducing usage, through insulation and the like, too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    Not this again. No-one (as far as I recall) said that Russia could not manufacture new missiles. What people said - accurately, I believe - is that they'd run out of old stocks of missiles, and were increasingly relying heavily on new builds of stuff.

    Before this last week, we had not seen large missile attacks for some time - seemingly because Russia was stockpiling.

    If they keep up this sort of rate for weeks, then you may have a point.
    There have been large scale attacks through most of December culminating in the 29th December attacks, thought to be the largest of the war to date, following large scale attacks earlier in the year: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65682618

    I think that the theory was that sanctions meant that they would lack the electronics to rebuild replacements. It has not worked.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Full day fasts I don't get. 16/8 seems manageable. Am working my way towards doing that for the last few days this week. Its also about *what* I am eating / drinking. I honestly think much of the grazing is because I have been (low - medium levels) depressed.
    The best way to lose weight is slowly and progressively, and the only two methods I've found that are both achievable and effective are to cut out all sugary stuff - cakes, biscuits, all puddings and desserts - cutting out alcohol supercharges this, but isn't quite so attractive - and/or skipping either lunch or dinner and relying on one main meal (plus breakfast) a day.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    They did run out of missiles (more or less). They then made and bought more.

    But the more relevant question here is what effect these new attacks will have on:
    - the front line
    - Ukrainian morale
    - Ukrainian war-making capacity
    - Russia morale
    - Western support
    Who knows? Because the shootdown numbers are from the Ukrainian Air Force; an organisation not known for its veracity. "Ghost of Kiev" and all that...
  • PoulterPoulter Posts: 62
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    An easier, or maybe less extreme, way of doing this is to follow the intermittent fasting advice of John Schaefer Health on Instagram.

    https://www.instagram.com/johnschaeferhealth?igsh=MTh2MmJoNnpyYXBhZg==

    In short;
    don’t eat until midday,
    drink about three litres of water a day,
    have a big protein packed meal
    Afternoon snack can be protein bar or shake
    Eat whatever you like for dinner
    Aim for 10,000 steps a day

    Your target weight in pounds *12 is your daily maximum calories
    Your target weight in pounds *0.6 is your daily minimum protein in grams

    I was 12st6 this time last year, and was 11st 9 after 4-5 months doing this. Actually was too skinny so I’ve just put it back on, but it’s handy to have a system which works if needed

    His main advice is that diets you can’t imagine doing forever aren’t worth doing, so don’t bother

    Nothing wrong with a crash diet if you're careful.

    I did (daily kcal)/(desired weight in lb) of 6 for a few months, and that was it - job done - back to maintenance figure of maybe 15.
  • kinabalu said:

    I'm as negative as they come on Donald Trump's political prospects but even I find it hard to see him not bagging the Iowa caucuses.

    So do I, in the sense he'll almost certainly top the poll.

    But it's an expectation game. He's polling north of 50% in Iowa and north of 60% nationally. Suppose he emerges with just 40%, with 30% and 20% for Haley and DeSantis (in either order) and 10% the rest. The headline story at that point isn't "Trump wins!" It's that most Republicans are on the hunt for an alternative, it's surprisingly competitive, all eyes on New Hampshire etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    I'll predict - having had a quick look at the trials and judgements Trump is facing in January - that the wheels are finally going to start to come off.

    And that some of it *may* be in time to have an impact for the Iowa caucuses.

    I'd like to think you're right, but his entire movement is fuelled by grievance, and the court stuff is grist to his mill.
    Agree, but the E Jean Caroll trial might be interesting because it is very clear cut with the courts having made the original decision followed by a blatant repeat of the defamation. Is this then not grounds for punatitive damaged which could be financially damaging to Trump. Anyone here know about US civil law?
    It pretty much follows in the US as in the UK - if you want to be a complete dick, then don't do so when antagonising the court. As Rudy Giuliani discovered, being a dick here and being a dick there - then soon those punitive damages mean you owe an additional $75m...

    Hoping Trump is in the tens of millions too.
    Trump often fails to pay his lawyers; a key reason why he's no longer able to get any decent ones to work for him.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    They did run out of missiles (more or less). They then made and bought more.

    But the more relevant question here is what effect these new attacks will have on:
    - the front line
    - Ukrainian morale
    - Ukrainian war-making capacity
    - Russia morale
    - Western support
    The latter is most likely to be the effect Russia is after (though it will take the others). Russia knows it cannot 'win' against Ukraine if we in the west keep on supporting it, or increase our support; it knows it may get some form of 'win' if we abandon Ukraine.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Well.

    Mhairi Black has said she was always “uncomfortable” with the SNP’s singular reliance on Nicola Sturgeon’s personality to promote the party.

    The nationalists’ deputy leader at Westminster said that her former leader’s departure from office was “quite healthy because I’m a big believer in politics should be about policy as opposed to personality”.

    Black said that she has not missed Sturgeon since Scotland’s longest-serving first minister quit last spring but predicted that she would “still have a part to play in future years”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-cult-of-personality-was-uncomfortable-says-black-5gv7rqtqs

    Standards have slipped at The Times. Does the second "she" in Black said that she has not missed Sturgeon since Scotland’s longest-serving first minister quit last spring but predicted that she would “still have a part to play in future years” refer to Black or Sturgeon? (Tbf, it might be more obvious in the context of the whole article, which is paywalled.

    Also, when did we (or newspapers generally) stop capitalising First Minister and Prime Minister and so on?
    Yes. There is really a gap in the structure of English grammar and vocabulary giving rise to this ambiguity, which is remarkably common.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Fasting takes some getting used to. But your body does adjust - and then it is an easier route to weight loss - also good for you in multiple ways, as many studies have now shown

    If you have really bad dips in energy and blood sugar eat some fruit, that normally solves it. A humble banana - and then you can drive again.
    If you can keep it up as a regime for life, fair enough, but otherwise it's pretty futile as no sooner do you stop than the weight will return.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    They did run out of missiles (more or less). They then made and bought more.

    But the more relevant question here is what effect these new attacks will have on:
    - the front line
    - Ukrainian morale
    - Ukrainian war-making capacity
    - Russia morale
    - Western support
    Who knows? Because the shootdown numbers are from the Ukrainian Air Force; an organisation not known for its veracity. "Ghost of Kiev" and all that...
    LOL. Whereas you slurp up all the diarrhea-strewn outpourings from Russian Telegram...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited January 2
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    But some, although not all, that progress by the US and EU has been achieved precisely by outsourcing to China and India!
    Someone was trying to tell me recently how clean Norway is, because apparently everything there is absolutely net Zero; this person continued to discount their oil and gas exports. The delusions are multifaceted and egregious. It has overall a sense of a very big lie.
    As you probably know, Norway set out to squirrel away as much of its oil revenues as possible, into its wealth fund, which now entirely funds their relatively generous state pension as well as loads of infrastructure projects. Driving about it's impossible to miss the money that's been spent on projects that probably weren't, without the windfall funding, economically viable, such as dramatic bridges in remote areas and long tunnels through remote mountains or beneath the sea.

    So despite being a major oil producer it was from the start one of the pioneers of renewable energy. Hydro produces a significant part of their domestic energy, and there are some giant hydro plants almost hidden from view inside mountains and the like. Plus of course Norway is windy. Norway was a pioneer in electric vehicles and has the largest proportion of electric cars on the road of any country in the world; despite its size and rugged remoteness, the EV charging network is very good. Many of the ferries that cross the fjords are electric, and as they come into dock the first thing that gets done is swinging the charging boom across so that the batteries get a quick recharge every time it stops to unload and load. And I believe they're pretty hot on reducing usage, through insulation and the like, too.
    Exactly.

    Norway is Europe's largest gas exporter, exporting more than 120 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2022.

    In 2022, Norway exported about 80 million Sm³ (1,4 million barrels per day) of crude oil
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    Not this again. No-one (as far as I recall) said that Russia could not manufacture new missiles. What people said - accurately, I believe - is that they'd run out of old stocks of missiles, and were increasingly relying heavily on new builds of stuff.

    Before this last week, we had not seen large missile attacks for some time - seemingly because Russia was stockpiling.

    If they keep up this sort of rate for weeks, then you may have a point.
    There have been large scale attacks through most of December culminating in the 29th December attacks, thought to be the largest of the war to date, following large scale attacks earlier in the year: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65682618

    I think that the theory was that sanctions meant that they would lack the electronics to rebuild replacements. It has not worked.
    Yes, there have been attacks over the year, but those have been limited in scale compared to the current, and even more so, compared to February 2022. That article is not contradictory to what I wrote.

    You do appear to have given up on Ukraine.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited January 2
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Fasting takes some getting used to. But your body does adjust - and then it is an easier route to weight loss - also good for you in multiple ways, as many studies have now shown

    If you have really bad dips in energy and blood sugar eat some fruit, that normally solves it. A humble banana - and then you can drive again.
    Hear hear.
    Nowt humble about the banana.
    Tasty, portable, extremely good for you, and comes in biodegradable packaging.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting
    32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.

    Debilitating cough doesn't help!

    Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
    That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
    Given that Boris has lost about 83kg, judging by his latest video, Just Do What Boris Did
    How has your weight loss gone @Leon ? Well I hope.
    Down about 5kg, but it’s taken aaaaaaages. And, of course, not helped by the festive season - it’s impossible to avoid weight gain at Xmas unless you are actually Scrooge, and a recluse

    Since Xmas day I am strictly fasting (as mentioned above) and feeling better for it. Also, as I have likewise mentioned, my booze intake is significantly reduced
    Well done anyway. Still pretty good considering the season. As discussed before I rely on fasting also. Only way I can do it and it drops off. Sadly when I stop it goes back on. Lost 8 kg prior to my May cycling trip last year. 6 kg are back on now so will start again after the Christmas cake has gone.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    I haven't carried cash for 5 years.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567
    Whenever we have given Ukraine the tools, they have used them well.

    The obvious answer is to give them more tools; not to throw our hands up in the air and say it's hopeless.

    And yes, there are costs to us in giving them those tools. But those costs are much lower than the medium- and long-term costs if Putin 'wins' in Ukraine (however you define 'win').
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    isam said:

    Thank you for your response @isam. Agreed about CHB, a total prat. But we are worse off without him. Oh well.

    Oh I wouldn’t say we were worse off without him, even if we were without him!

    But fancy you and he asking the same question about poor old Plato?!
    I think we'd be worse off without you too, which is why I asked for you to be allowed back.

    We are clearly in sync old CHB and me. Just a happy coincidence, or is it?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567

    I haven't carried cash for 5 years.

    I hear that cigarettes and mobile phones are the currency in jail. ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,243
    A
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    They are saving up production (at the low rate they can manage) and launching an attack every so often. Been doing that for a while.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,606

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    You could get another YouTube channel out of that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    But some, although not all, that progress by the US and EU has been achieved precisely by outsourcing to China and India!
    Someone was trying to tell me recently how clean Norway is, because apparently everything there is absolutely net Zero; this person continued to discount their oil and gas exports. The delusions are multifaceted and egregious. It has overall a sense of a very big lie.
    As you probably know, Norway set out to squirrel away as much of its oil revenues as possible, into its wealth fund, which now entirely funds their relatively generous state pension as well as loads of infrastructure projects. Driving about it's impossible to miss the money that's been spent on projects that probably weren't, without the windfall funding, economically viable, such as dramatic bridges in remote areas and long tunnels through remote mountains or beneath the sea.

    So despite being a major oil producer it was from the start one of the pioneers of renewable energy. Hydro produces a significant part of their domestic energy, and there are some giant hydro plants almost hidden from view inside mountains and the like. Plus of course Norway is windy. Norway was a pioneer in electric vehicles and has the largest proportion of electric cars on the road of any country in the world; despite its size and rugged remoteness, the EV charging network is very good. Many of the ferries that cross the fjords are electric, and as they come into dock the first thing that gets done is swinging the charging boom across so that the batteries get a quick recharge every time it stops to unload and load. And I believe they're pretty hot on reducing usage, through insulation and the like, too.
    Exactly.

    Norway is Europe's largest gas exporter, exporting more than 120 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2022.

    In 2022, Norway exported about 80 million Sm³ (1,4 million barrels per day) of crude oil
    It makes you imagine what most of the Arab states would be like, had they done the same, and spent the proceeds on their populations rather than on the super-rich royals, their military, and terrorists.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    kinabalu said:

    I'm as negative as they come on Donald Trump's political prospects but even I find it hard to see him not bagging the Iowa caucuses.

    So do I, in the sense he'll almost certainly top the poll.

    But it's an expectation game. He's polling north of 50% in Iowa and north of 60% nationally. Suppose he emerges with just 40%, with 30% and 20% for Haley and DeSantis (in either order) and 10% the rest. The headline story at that point isn't "Trump wins!" It's that most Republicans are on the hunt for an alternative, it's surprisingly competitive, all eyes on New Hampshire etc.
    I don't think it will happen, but.
    If he gets into a competitive race, will he start to call fraud on the Republican Primary process?
    If so, what happens next?
    A Civil War within the Party is not inconceivable.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    I haven't carried cash for 5 years.

    I hear that cigarettes and mobile phones are the currency in jail. ;)
    From my vast experience, I could not say.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    They did run out of missiles (more or less). They then made and bought more.

    But the more relevant question here is what effect these new attacks will have on:
    - the front line
    - Ukrainian morale
    - Ukrainian war-making capacity
    - Russia morale
    - Western support
    It’s been noted from several sources in the last few months, that the rate of launch of missiles appears to closely match the Russian manufacturing capability of them.

    They don’t launch any for weeks, then let a few dozen go in one night, often aimed randomly at populated areas, and usually in response to a Ukranian tactical victory such as a ship sunk or another hole in the Kerch Bridge.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567
    On another note, the BBC's live reporting of the Tokyo plane incident shows the perils of live reporting:

    Posted at 9:35 : Live images show plane engulfed in flames
    Posted at 9.45 : 379 people on board evacuated - Japan Airlines
    Posted at 9.58 : "a few moments ago we saw passengers evacuating the plane on inflatable slides and running away from the burning plane."

    A very, very long 'few moments'.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-67862184
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Full day fasts I don't get. 16/8 seems manageable. Am working my way towards doing that for the last few days this week. Its also about *what* I am eating / drinking. I honestly think much of the grazing is because I have been (low - medium levels) depressed.
    The best way to lose weight is slowly and progressively, and the only two methods I've found that are both achievable and effective are to cut out all sugary stuff - cakes, biscuits, all puddings and desserts - cutting out alcohol supercharges this, but isn't quite so attractive - and/or skipping either lunch or dinner and relying on one main meal (plus breakfast) a day.
    I have a bowl of cereal for breakfast, fruit at lunchtime, a teatime snack and then an evening meal (and sometimes another snack later). Moving away from the usual lunchtime "meal deal" of a sandwich and packet of crisps is what helped me slowly reduce my weight from close to 15 stone to just over 13 stone. I have subsequently cycled between just over 13 and 13.5 stone, but late last year finally got below 13 stone for the first time in decades. Despite Christmas, I'm still below 13. Whether this is due to losing fat or muscle wastage, hopefully not the latter!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    They did run out of missiles (more or less). They then made and bought more.

    But the more relevant question here is what effect these new attacks will have on:
    - the front line
    - Ukrainian morale
    - Ukrainian war-making capacity
    - Russia morale
    - Western support
    The latter is most likely to be the effect Russia is after (though it will take the others). Russia knows it cannot 'win' against Ukraine if we in the west keep on supporting it, or increase our support; it knows it may get some form of 'win' if we abandon Ukraine.
    These attacks are, if anything, more likely to strengthen Western resolve; it reminds us of the inhuman nature of Putin. I don't see any Russian strategy; just a dictator throwing a tantrum.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,129
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Fasting takes some getting used to. But your body does adjust - and then it is an easier route to weight loss - also good for you in multiple ways, as many studies have now shown

    If you have really bad dips in energy and blood sugar eat some fruit, that normally solves it. A humble banana - and then you can drive again.
    Hear hear.
    Nowt humble about the banana.
    Tasty, portable, extremely good for you, and comes in biodegradable packaging.
    And only mildly radioactive!
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited January 2

    Well.

    Mhairi Black has said she was always “uncomfortable” with the SNP’s singular reliance on Nicola Sturgeon’s personality to promote the party.

    The nationalists’ deputy leader at Westminster said that her former leader’s departure from office was “quite healthy because I’m a big believer in politics should be about policy as opposed to personality”.

    Black said that she has not missed Sturgeon since Scotland’s longest-serving first minister quit last spring but predicted that she would “still have a part to play in future years”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-cult-of-personality-was-uncomfortable-says-black-5gv7rqtqs

    Standards have slipped at The Times. Does the second "she" in Black said that she has not missed Sturgeon since Scotland’s longest-serving first minister quit last spring but predicted that she would “still have a part to play in future years” refer to Black or Sturgeon? (Tbf, it might be more obvious in the context of the whole article, which is paywalled.

    Also, when did we (or newspapers generally) stop capitalising First Minister and Prime Minister and so on?
    Style guides vary on this matter, but I don't think "first minister" should be capitalised in that particular sentence as it is describing Nicola Sturgeon's position in comparison with others who have held the post ("longest serving first minister").

    Similarly, "I recently met President Trump, America's first orange president".


  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513
    algarkirk said:



    DavidL said:


    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    But some, although not all, that progress by the US and EU has been achieved precisely by outsourcing to China and India!
    Someone was trying to tell me recently how clean Norway is, because apparently everything there is absolutely net Zero; this person continued to discount their oil and gas exports. The delusions are multifaceted and egregious. It has overall a sense of a very big lie.
    So, to be clear, should carbon emissions count against the importing or the exporting country?
    There are two contradictory views in this thread.
    One, that our imports from China and India should count against us,
    and two, that Norway's exports should count against them.
    Which is it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365

    Well.

    Mhairi Black has said she was always “uncomfortable” with the SNP’s singular reliance on Nicola Sturgeon’s personality to promote the party.

    The nationalists’ deputy leader at Westminster said that her former leader’s departure from office was “quite healthy because I’m a big believer in politics should be about policy as opposed to personality”.

    Black said that she has not missed Sturgeon since Scotland’s longest-serving first minister quit last spring but predicted that she would “still have a part to play in future years”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-cult-of-personality-was-uncomfortable-says-black-5gv7rqtqs

    Standards have slipped at The Times. Does the second "she" in Black said that she has not missed Sturgeon since Scotland’s longest-serving first minister quit last spring but predicted that she would “still have a part to play in future years” refer to Black or Sturgeon? (Tbf, it might be more obvious in the context of the whole article, which is paywalled.

    Also, when did we (or newspapers generally) stop capitalising First Minister and Prime Minister and so on?
    Style guides vary on this matter, but I don't think "first minister" should be capitalised in that particular sentence as it is describing Nicola Sturgeon's position in comparison with others who have held the post ("longest serving first minister").

    Similarly, "I recently met President Trump, America's first orange president".


    Really? You have my sympathy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783
    edited January 2
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Fasting takes some getting used to. But your body does adjust - and then it is an easier route to weight loss - also good for you in multiple ways, as many studies have now shown

    If you have really bad dips in energy and blood sugar eat some fruit, that normally solves it. A humble banana - and then you can drive again.
    Hear hear.
    Nowt humble about the banana.
    Tasty, portable, extremely good for you, and comes in biodegradable packaging.
    They don't get a chance to biodegrade (at least in the way I suspect you mean) around our way. Our dog loves them and runners discard them in huge quantities. He sniffs them out from quite long distances. Initially we tried to take the skins away from him as they are not good for dogs. They are a choking or blockage hazard. It is one hell of a battle trying to prise open his jaws. Seeing as he finds at least one a day, often more, we have given up as he hasn't come to any harm and he must have consumed many hundreds by now.

    Practically everything is poisonous to dogs, but in reality they sail through most of it. We have had a few scares. A whole bag of potatoes cost us a bit in vet fees, although in the end that was also a case of wait and see what happens and he was fine. You pay just to be told to do nothing but monitor, mostly.
  • dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm as negative as they come on Donald Trump's political prospects but even I find it hard to see him not bagging the Iowa caucuses.

    So do I, in the sense he'll almost certainly top the poll.

    But it's an expectation game. He's polling north of 50% in Iowa and north of 60% nationally. Suppose he emerges with just 40%, with 30% and 20% for Haley and DeSantis (in either order) and 10% the rest. The headline story at that point isn't "Trump wins!" It's that most Republicans are on the hunt for an alternative, it's surprisingly competitive, all eyes on New Hampshire etc.
    I don't think it will happen, but.
    If he gets into a competitive race, will he start to call fraud on the Republican Primary process?
    If so, what happens next?
    A Civil War within the Party is not inconceivable.
    I agree it's relatively unlikely, but you could see him running as an independent. That would be another one that would involve litigation as there is some dispute over whether "sore loser" laws in many states (which prevent people from running as an independent if they've been defeated in a party primary) can be applied to presidential elections.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    On another note, the BBC's live reporting of the Tokyo plane incident shows the perils of live reporting:

    Posted at 9:35 : Live images show plane engulfed in flames
    Posted at 9.45 : 379 people on board evacuated - Japan Airlines
    Posted at 9.58 : "a few moments ago we saw passengers evacuating the plane on inflatable slides and running away from the burning plane."

    A very, very long 'few moments'.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-67862184

    There’s pictures of the plane being doused in water by the ARFF trucks, with no slides visible. Hope everyone did eventually get out though. Every second counts in an incident like this.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting
    32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.

    Debilitating cough doesn't help!

    Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
    That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
    Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
    'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
    I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,243

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A of ’shit’ on R4 atm. Entirely connectedly they’re interviewing Cleverly.

    @IanDunt

    Cleverley is by far one of the most impressive communicators on the government front bench. But even in his case, there is this very clear sense of entitlement, arrogance and bitter resentment.

    Really very common with this lot, from Sunak on down. The slightest questioning, and this properly - seemingly personally - angry response emerges.
    When Grant Shapps is second, that's a low bar.
    David Cameron is the government’s best communicator by far, the rest look like dwarves trying to play basketball with Andre the Giant.
    Someone who was involved

    algarkirk said:



    DavidL said:


    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    But some, although not all, that progress by the US and EU has been achieved precisely by outsourcing to China and India!
    Someone was trying to tell me recently how clean Norway is, because apparently everything there is absolutely net Zero; this person continued to discount their oil and gas exports. The delusions are multifaceted and egregious. It has overall a sense of a very big lie.
    So, to be clear, should carbon emissions count against the importing or the exporting country?
    There are two contradictory views in this thread.
    One, that our imports from China and India should count against us,
    and two, that Norway's exports should count against them.
    Which is it?
    The logical behaviour is to impose carbon taxes on imports that match carbon taxes on domestic production.

    China has made it clear that it would see any such move as a full scale trade war.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Sandpit said:

    On another note, the BBC's live reporting of the Tokyo plane incident shows the perils of live reporting:

    Posted at 9:35 : Live images show plane engulfed in flames
    Posted at 9.45 : 379 people on board evacuated - Japan Airlines
    Posted at 9.58 : "a few moments ago we saw passengers evacuating the plane on inflatable slides and running away from the burning plane."

    A very, very long 'few moments'.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-67862184

    There’s pictures of the plane being doused in water by the ARFF trucks, with no slides visible. Hope everyone did eventually get out though. Every second counts in an incident like this.
    Looks horrendous


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    They did run out of missiles (more or less). They then made and bought more.

    But the more relevant question here is what effect these new attacks will have on:
    - the front line
    - Ukrainian morale
    - Ukrainian war-making capacity
    - Russia morale
    - Western support
    Who knows? Because the shootdown numbers are from the Ukrainian Air Force; an organisation not known for its veracity. "Ghost of Kiev" and all that...
    There is rather less uncertainty about whether a missile land on you or not.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm as negative as they come on Donald Trump's political prospects but even I find it hard to see him not bagging the Iowa caucuses.

    So do I, in the sense he'll almost certainly top the poll.

    But it's an expectation game. He's polling north of 50% in Iowa and north of 60% nationally. Suppose he emerges with just 40%, with 30% and 20% for Haley and DeSantis (in either order) and 10% the rest. The headline story at that point isn't "Trump wins!" It's that most Republicans are on the hunt for an alternative, it's surprisingly competitive, all eyes on New Hampshire etc.
    I don't think it will happen, but.
    If he gets into a competitive race, will he start to call fraud on the Republican Primary process?
    If so, what happens next?
    A Civil War within the Party is not inconceivable.
    He's called fraud on practically every election he's been in. He's called fraud on both Presidential elections. He called fraud on the 2016 Republican primary. I suspect he'll call fraud on the 2024 primary too. I guess the question is how big he goes on those calls.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,107

    kinabalu said:

    I'm as negative as they come on Donald Trump's political prospects but even I find it hard to see him not bagging the Iowa caucuses.

    So do I, in the sense he'll almost certainly top the poll.

    But it's an expectation game. He's polling north of 50% in Iowa and north of 60% nationally. Suppose he emerges with just 40%, with 30% and 20% for Haley and DeSantis (in either order) and 10% the rest. The headline story at that point isn't "Trump wins!" It's that most Republicans are on the hunt for an alternative, it's surprisingly competitive, all eyes on New Hampshire etc.
    That's what I hope and expect to see as 2024 finds its feet over there. A dribbling away of his support until (quite quickly) we are able to peer back to where we are now and discern through the clearing mists the unmistakeable silhouette of that most welcome of sights: Peak Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    Currently Trump has 50% support amongst Republicans in Iowa in the latest polls, De Santis 18% and Haley 15%.

    The rest of the field is some way back with Ramaswamy closest on just 6%. So Iowa should at least start to narrow down the GOP field further to De Santis and Haley emerging as the main challengers to Trump
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Full day fasts I don't get. 16/8 seems manageable. Am working my way towards doing that for the last few days this week. Its also about *what* I am eating / drinking. I honestly think much of the grazing is because I have been (low - medium levels) depressed.
    The best way to lose weight is slowly and progressively, and the only two methods I've found that are both achievable and effective are to cut out all sugary stuff - cakes, biscuits, all puddings and desserts - cutting out alcohol supercharges this, but isn't quite so attractive - and/or skipping either lunch or dinner and relying on one main meal (plus breakfast) a day.
    I have a bowl of cereal for breakfast, fruit at lunchtime, a teatime snack and then an evening meal (and sometimes another snack later). Moving away from the usual lunchtime "meal deal" of a sandwich and packet of crisps is what helped me slowly reduce my weight from close to 15 stone to just over 13 stone. I have subsequently cycled between just over 13 and 13.5 stone, but late last year finally got below 13 stone for the first time in decades. Despite Christmas, I'm still below 13. Whether this is due to losing fat or muscle wastage, hopefully not the latter!
    Cutting out meals - for good - is definitely the way to go. Who said we need three square meals a day? It is nonsense

    And I agree with @IanB2 - permanently cutting out sugary stuff is also hugely helpful. You have to be strict -no choccy treats. But it works, and again you swiftly get used to it, such that the idea of a massive pudding eventually seems quite bizarre
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting
    32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.

    Debilitating cough doesn't help!

    Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
    That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
    Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
    'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
    I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
    Stones? Its 2024 not 1924. Lets use proper measures.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Andy_JS said:

    Article from about 18 months ago.

    "Cashless society is killing off the traditional coin-operated public phone box"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-10952227/Cashless-society-killing-phone-box-one-call-save-yours.html

    I thought they were all being used as hotels for asylum seeking books these days

    In London, I can’t remember the last time I saw a phone box that was actually a phone box. Rather than repurposed.
    I am loving the idea that it was a cashless society and not mobile phones that killed off phone boxes.
    Phone boxes are pointless as a) nobody carries change and b) most people have mobile phones. They should all be converted to defibrillators
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    HYUFD said:

    Currently Trump has 50% support amongst Republicans in Iowa in the latest polls, De Santis 18% and Haley 15%.

    The rest of the field is some way back with Ramaswamy closest on just 6%. So Iowa should at least start to narrow down the GOP field further to De Santis and Haley emerging as the main challengers to Trump
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/

    DeSantis (no space) has supposedly run out of money. I think the field may have narrowed to Haley or Trump? (Ramaswamy may stay in to sell more books. Christie may stay in just to keep insulting Trump.)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    With regards to weight, I am bemused but determined. When Covid struck I was going to the gym regularly, could do a 10k run, got my bike out and built up to doing the 65k from Thornaby to Newcastle.

    What the hell happened to me? Oh yeah, the happy pills. OK so I managed to wean myself off them once I moved up here. And have gone back to running and even occasionally cycling. But its sporadic, with the mental push to keep fit largely gone.

    So the plan for this year is get me fixed. My excess weight and lack of fitness makes me unhappy. So make myself happy by fixing it! Last year I fell off the diet wagon too quickly. But this isn't diet. This is life extension. As I will live longer if I do this...

    Fasting is highly effective, if you can summon the willpower

    It’s also a lot easier than calorie counting. Two days a week you eat fuck all. Then eat normally the rest of the week. Bingo your calorific intake is down ~30%
    Personally, I am working on turning at least some of my wine into water.

    I tried that diet when it was popular a few years ago. It really didn't work for me. On fasting days driving home in the evening was positively dangerous and concentration levels at work were not good enough. Or at least that is what I convinced myself at the time.
    Full day fasts I don't get. 16/8 seems manageable. Am working my way towards doing that for the last few days this week. Its also about *what* I am eating / drinking. I honestly think much of the grazing is because I have been (low - medium levels) depressed.
    The best way to lose weight is slowly and progressively, and the only two methods I've found that are both achievable and effective are to cut out all sugary stuff - cakes, biscuits, all puddings and desserts - cutting out alcohol supercharges this, but isn't quite so attractive - and/or skipping either lunch or dinner and relying on one main meal (plus breakfast) a day.
    I have a bowl of cereal for breakfast, fruit at lunchtime, a teatime snack and then an evening meal (and sometimes another snack later). Moving away from the usual lunchtime "meal deal" of a sandwich and packet of crisps is what helped me slowly reduce my weight from close to 15 stone to just over 13 stone. I have subsequently cycled between just over 13 and 13.5 stone, but late last year finally got below 13 stone for the first time in decades. Despite Christmas, I'm still below 13. Whether this is due to losing fat or muscle wastage, hopefully not the latter!
    Cutting out meals - for good - is definitely the way to go. Who said we need three square meals a day? It is nonsense

    And I agree with @IanB2 - permanently cutting out sugary stuff is also hugely helpful. You have to be strict -no choccy treats. But it works, and again you swiftly get used to it, such that the idea of a massive pudding eventually seems quite bizarre
    The big evil is *refined sugar*. Sugar - like fat - is fine in natural form. Too many "low fat" foods replace natural fats with refined sugars. Which turn immediately to fat...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting
    32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.

    Debilitating cough doesn't help!

    Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
    That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
    Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
    'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
    I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
    Stones? Its 2024 not 1924. Lets use proper measures.
    It is the only appropriate measure for human weight. Poncing about with kilos is simply silly - I presume a meal can weigh a kilo or more anyway.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Imagine the devastation if they run out of air defence missiles.

    Ukrainian Air Force shootdown totals from the massive Russian missile attack overnight into this morning:

    99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

    10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal
    59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
    3/3 Kalibr
    0/4 Kh-31P
    0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1742120224340459751

    Imagine the embarrassment of those who confidently predicted that Russia was running out of missiles more than 6 months ago. Oh, wait a minute, they don't seem to have any.
    Not this again. No-one (as far as I recall) said that Russia could not manufacture new missiles. What people said - accurately, I believe - is that they'd run out of old stocks of missiles, and were increasingly relying heavily on new builds of stuff.

    Before this last week, we had not seen large missile attacks for some time - seemingly because Russia was stockpiling.

    If they keep up this sort of rate for weeks, then you may have a point.
    There have been large scale attacks through most of December culminating in the 29th December attacks, thought to be the largest of the war to date, following large scale attacks earlier in the year: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65682618

    I think that the theory was that sanctions meant that they would lack the electronics to rebuild replacements. It has not worked.
    Yes, there have been attacks over the year, but those have been limited in scale compared to the current, and even more so, compared to February 2022. That article is not contradictory to what I wrote.

    You do appear to have given up on Ukraine.
    Not at all. I said yesterday or the day before that we have both a moral and strategic duty to support Ukraine for as long as they are willing to fight. It is, after all, their country and they know the horror of Russian occupation far better than most. I greatly admire their heroism, their leadership and their resolve.

    What I do not think is helpful to them or us is kidding ourselves that defeating a country like Russia in a conventional war is either just about to happen or to be achieved without a truly terrible cost. We need to make clear that we are there for the long term. That means stepping up our ammunition production, defence spending and financial commitment to keeping the Ukrainian state functioning. It means accepting that this is going to be long and hard but it is essential, absolutely essential, that Russia both loses and is seen to lose this war.

    My attacks on the over optimism should not deceive you into thinking that Ukraine has many, if any, stronger supporters on this board.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    Forget Trump. The interesting question is who comes second: DeSantis or Haley? A few threads back, in response to reports that RDS was running out of money, that based on polling he could come second in Iowa and would then withdraw rather than be beaten by Haley in New Hampshire just a week later. This would allow RDS to endorse Trump and hope to pick up the MAGA vote next time round, four years from now.

    But if it now looks as if Haley can beat RDS in Iowa as well, the man is toast and might as well go back now to his day job of running Florida into the ground.

    Nationally DeSantis is also narrowly ahead of Haley, as in Iowa.

    Currently nationally GOP polls have Trump on 61%, De Santis on 11.7% and Haley on 11% on average with Ramaswamy and Christie some way back on 3% each

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-republican-primary-updates/

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Interested to see that our new vicar (he's being installed a fortnight tomorrow) has written, very lucidly, on the Post Office and on Paula Vennells' connections with the Church of England:

    https://twitter.com/_F_B_G_/status/1742087431929635058
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited January 2
    Pointless poll finding of the day: asked where they would like to live if they had to leave their own country, the Scots would come to England, the English to Australia, the Irish to America, most Scandinavians and the Baltics would move to Sweden, the Swedes to Norway, the Belgians to the Netherlands. Everyone else in western Europe would move to Switzerland (with the Swiss looking at France) and in central and eastern Europe to Germany.

    Except for the Dutch, who for some bizarre reason want to move to Canada?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,770

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    First client day of 2024 (as we use the English calendar not Scottish...). Amongst other things I am determined to shed the excess weight I am carrying - need to drop an exciting
    32kg to get back to my fighting weight of summer 2020.

    Debilitating cough doesn't help!

    Well done, that makes me feel better about only having to lose 22kg. Going to make a real effort this year, just as soon as the Christmas chocolates are finished.
    That all stopped as the piper welcomed the new year. We have *loads* left, but all with long dates. So it can all stay in the pantry for now...
    Your fortitude makes you a hero in my eyes, talking of which, thanks very much, one of the last remaining fudges.
    'Tablet' surely: unless it's imported fudge from south of the border.
    I'm more concerned about where these imported 'kilos' are coming from. Who measures their weight in kilos? You either need to lose half a stone, a stone, or several stone - thems the options.
    I use kilos!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    I haven't carried cash for 5 years.

    Getting on for ten years for me.

    What’s the point of it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365

    I haven't carried cash for 5 years.

    Getting on for ten years for me.

    What’s the point of it?
    @AverageNinja I'm blaming you for this.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742

    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm as negative as they come on Donald Trump's political prospects but even I find it hard to see him not bagging the Iowa caucuses.

    So do I, in the sense he'll almost certainly top the poll.

    But it's an expectation game. He's polling north of 50% in Iowa and north of 60% nationally. Suppose he emerges with just 40%, with 30% and 20% for Haley and DeSantis (in either order) and 10% the rest. The headline story at that point isn't "Trump wins!" It's that most Republicans are on the hunt for an alternative, it's surprisingly competitive, all eyes on New Hampshire etc.
    I don't think it will happen, but.
    If he gets into a competitive race, will he start to call fraud on the Republican Primary process?
    If so, what happens next?
    A Civil War within the Party is not inconceivable.
    He's called fraud on practically every election he's been in. He's called fraud on both Presidential elections. He called fraud on the 2016 Republican primary. I suspect he'll call fraud on the 2024 primary too. I guess the question is how big he goes on those calls.
    He'll only get nasty if he starts losing.

    However, if he starts losing, that'll be because the Republican Party has already started turning against him. For the moment, despite everything, it hasn't - his rivals won't call him out and while they don't, why would his supporters shift to someone else? There's an element of chicken-and-egg in this and perhaps if the momentum did start to run against him, things could turn very quickly. But that still requires something to break the spell he has the GOP, in its various guises, under.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    algarkirk said:



    DavidL said:


    If you’re finding the hysteria of flint knappers a bit boring, try ‘international man of history’ Niall Ferguson for some proper catastrophising.



    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1741547139304755343?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Trying and failing to access Ferguson's article led to this chart which is quite interesting:

    https://twitter.com/opinion/status/1205645070726242305/photo/1

    Basically, carbon emissions would have fallen since 2007 but for the increases in China and India. The US and the EU have both done rather well but the net effect is still increasing emissions.
    But some, although not all, that progress by the US and EU has been achieved precisely by outsourcing to China and India!
    Someone was trying to tell me recently how clean Norway is, because apparently everything there is absolutely net Zero; this person continued to discount their oil and gas exports. The delusions are multifaceted and egregious. It has overall a sense of a very big lie.
    So, to be clear, should carbon emissions count against the importing or the exporting country?
    There are two contradictory views in this thread.
    One, that our imports from China and India should count against us,
    and two, that Norway's exports should count against them.
    Which is it?
    There are three sorts of answer; the obvious, that it is a shared responsibility; the evasive ('what we do is only 0.02% of global emissions, and what others do is 99.8%, and so look somewhere else in abroadland'); and the globally official.

    Does the third sort exist?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Andy_JS said:

    Article from about 18 months ago.

    "Cashless society is killing off the traditional coin-operated public phone box"

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-10952227/Cashless-society-killing-phone-box-one-call-save-yours.html

    I thought they were all being used as hotels for asylum seeking books these days

    In London, I can’t remember the last time I saw a phone box that was actually a phone box. Rather than repurposed.
    I am loving the idea that it was a cashless society and not mobile phones that killed off phone boxes.
    Indeed. Especially since even vending machines are going cashless.
    They’ve been cashless for years.

    I even had a cabbie tell me off for trying to pay him with cash.

    He hates carrying cash as it is a security risk and the nearest branch is 40 mins away.
    It's changed quickly though.

    Ten years ago I remember you had to have cash to get a cab, or you couldn't get home.
    Only on PB could something that was (perhaps) true ten years ago be called a ‘quick’ change.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,953

    I haven't carried cash for 5 years.

    Getting on for ten years for me.

    What’s the point of it?
    Beggars.
This discussion has been closed.