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Too many tweets, Part II – politicalbetting.com

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,217
    edited December 2023

    Ghedebrav said:

    How can Miriam Cates be accused of damaging the reputation of the Commons, when nobody knows what she’s supposed to have done?

    Something Kafkaesque about this process, even if I am hardly a natural supporter of the loonbag Ms Cates.

    Let me get this right, the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards is currently investigating eight MPs:

    Rt Hon. Colonel Bob Stewart (Con*)
    Mr Andrew Bridgen (Con*)
    Ms Virginia Crosbie (Con)
    Rt Hon. Dame Eleanor Laing (Con)
    Mr Marco Longhi (Con)
    Mr David Duguid (Con)
    Sir Bernard Jenkin (Con)
    Ms Miriam Cates (Con)

    Is there a pattern I wonder?

    (*Elected as Con, now disowned by them - too late.)

    https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/standards-and-financial-interests/parliamentary-commissioner-for-standards/complaints-and-investigations/allegations-currently-under-investigation-by-the-commissioner/
    Bernard Jenkin and Eleanor Laing feel like odd-ones-out on that list though. I wouldn't have ranked them alongside full-bore moonhowlers like Cates and Bridgen.
    Maybe it's just me, but I'm not entirely comfortable with Eleanor Laing continuing as Deputy Speaker (and Chair of Ways and Means) until the investigation into her (for actions causing significant damage to the reputation of the House etc.) is completed. Maybe she should step down temporarily.
    She’s never been the same since HYUFD moved from her constituency. She’s obviously lost her moral compass.
    It just relates to a social event held in her office in December 2020. The police saw no evidence to issue fines and she is doing an excellent job as Deputy Speaker and until the investigation concludes no reason that should stop.

    (I am still a member of her constituency party as I live in EFDC area still even if BOCA parliamentary constituency)


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67662064
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,957
    Webcam of a part of the fissure:
    https://livefromiceland.is/webcams/fagradalsfjall

    As long as this doesn't turn in to a Laki style event then we'll be fine (that was about 25km long, a lot bigger than this). We don't need another French Revolution.

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,135

    Andy_JS said:

    Less than a year to go before this parliament expires.

    And the Tories - for good?

    Will we be toasting the end of the Tories this time next year?
    They will certainly lose office IMO.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,545
    Let's see. If that Iceland eruption slows -- or even stops -- for a year or so, global warming, how should we react? (The recent St. Helens eruption was followed by a dop of one-tenth of a degree, but there were much larger effects in the 19th century from Tambora and Krakatoa.

    I think we should prepare for worse, though I think the odds would still be against it, by stockpiling food and protective gear.

    How will the usual suspects react? (I can kind of guess how that poor girl, Greta Thunberg, might react, and how, for example, John Kerry will react, but what about those folks in their attractive costumes, Extinction Rebellion?)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,103
    They will endorse him anyway, no doubt.

    GOP senators distance themselves from Trump's 'poisoning' immigration comments
    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/12/18/congress/gop-senators-on-trumps-immigration-comments-00132359
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,971
    For an effective political tweet see here:

    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1736728290776293843?t=rUgyaHYGzTla7z0sk_NwQg&s=19

    You saw it here first...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,103
    This seems to be a pretty consequential ruling for Trump's presidential immunity defence, too.
    Interesting thread.

    A FEW QUICK THOUGHTS ON THE ELEVENTH CIRCUIT OPINION ON MEADOWS.

    (1) This is an astonishing defeat for Meadows, on every front. He's not protected because he's a former officer (not a current one), and he's not protected even if CA11 turns out to be wrong on that question...

    https://twitter.com/lee_kovarsky/status/1736867625215418474
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,103
    Whaff to has the UK done recently ?

    Today, Sweden and Denmark announced a new large joint procurement effort to supply Ukraine with newly produced CV90 IFVs.

    Denmark with provide initial funding of 1.8 billion Kroner (~$260 million), while Sweden will handle vehicle production.

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1736881816546533873
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,543
    Nigelb said:

    This seems to be a pretty consequential ruling for Trump's presidential immunity defence, too.
    Interesting thread.

    A FEW QUICK THOUGHTS ON THE ELEVENTH CIRCUIT OPINION ON MEADOWS.

    (1) This is an astonishing defeat for Meadows, on every front. He's not protected because he's a former officer (not a current one), and he's not protected even if CA11 turns out to be wrong on that question...

    https://twitter.com/lee_kovarsky/status/1736867625215418474

    It’s doubly consequential because the judge, Bill Pryor, is a longtime Trump supporter.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Iceland about to be renamed Fireland?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,519
    Nigelb said:

    This seems to be a pretty consequential ruling for Trump's presidential immunity defence, too.
    Interesting thread.

    A FEW QUICK THOUGHTS ON THE ELEVENTH CIRCUIT OPINION ON MEADOWS.

    (1) This is an astonishing defeat for Meadows, on every front. He's not protected because he's a former officer (not a current one), and he's not protected even if CA11 turns out to be wrong on that question...

    https://twitter.com/lee_kovarsky/status/1736867625215418474

    AIUI his appeal was an attempt to get this case into Federal Court. The attraction for him of that is obvious: if it is a Federal conviction then a re-elected Trump could pardon him. His appeal was unsuccessful because the Georgian authorities said that there was no link between his Federal role and his attempt to pervert the electoral process in Georgia. The logic of this is indeed not good for Trump.

    There is some speculation that this might increase the pressure on Meadows to cut a deal but the prosecuting authorities are playing hard to get in that respect so far.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,398

    Let's see. If that Iceland eruption slows -- or even stops -- for a year or so, global warming, how should we react? (The recent St. Helens eruption was followed by a dop of one-tenth of a degree, but there were much larger effects in the 19th century from Tambora and Krakatoa.

    I think we should prepare for worse, though I think the odds would still be against it, by stockpiling food and protective gear.

    How will the usual suspects react? (I can kind of guess how that poor girl, Greta Thunberg, might react, and how, for example, John Kerry will react, but what about those folks in their attractive costumes, Extinction Rebellion?)

    Demanding climate reparations from Iceland ?
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725
    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    eek said:

    https://x.com/eladgil/status/1736810406625292383?s=46&t=cxkq0jndvkhIwWZCCEL3QQ

    Circulating on chat groups right now “takeaway from Figma/Adobe is don’t open a UK office as a US startup”

    Sorry: that post has been deleted.
    From what I've been able to discern, massive company wanted to take over (relative) minnow in large deal. They both agreed, but minnow's lawyers put a cancellation clause in. Perhaps to prevent the situation I described below. Massive company did not factor in/realise the possibility of regulatory failure, and allowed minnow to put in a cancellation clause. The deal did not get regulatory approval, the deal was off, and minnow gets the cancellation fee.

    *If* that's what happened, it seems fine.

    It should be remembered that massive company may have gained information during arranging the deal that could allow
    them to destroy the small company.
    They were buying it for $20bn… not that small

    And the most sensitive data will have been in a clean room

  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,939

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    Redfield & Wilton ends with a solid 18-point Labour lead. Compared to its first poll of 2023 on 2-3 January, Labour are down five, the Conservatives down three, the Liberal Democrats down one, the Greens up three and Reform up five. The Lab/LD/Green vs Con/Ref split tonight is 59-34 - at the beginning of the year it was 62-32 so not a lot of change in truth.

    59% is one of the lowest LLG scores for a while though. Lib Dems being down one is against the run of play for other pollsters.

    Labour are still scoring in the 40s. The whole Tory fightback narrative will of course kick into overdrive as soon as Labour get a polling score beginning with 3. They’ve got close a few times recently.
    Can’t read too much into one poll, but Labours war tanking is letting the LLG down.

    Tories can only have a fight back narrative with polling scores starting with 3 themselves. What’s interesting from Labour polling slump is Tories have their own malaise at same time, not benefiting from it.

    If Elder Statesman Lord Cameron is going to receive all the credit for the Tory flip flop on calling Israel to ceasefire, tonight’s politics hub on Sky was gushing in praise for him, then he must receive credit for saving Labours troubles on this at same time. Starmer and team kept within a micrometer of the government position on this, but the Tory letter from former ministers, remarks from Wallace, Cameron’s “sustained ceasefire” phrase today parroted by Sunak, is different in what way and language from the SNP and Labour left position 4 weeks ago?
    Obviously, I was in the loo and missed it, but the Gaza conflict has waged pretty fierce on a daily basis here on PB. Sunil and Roger versus just about everyone else? And thanks to David Cameron, Sunil and Roger are now winning.

    Conservative MPs sign letter calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza conflict 
    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-baroness-mone-ppe-labour-government-pandemic-transparency-12593360

    How is Sunak’s governments Damascene Conversion on Gaza conflict being reported in Europe and Rest of the world? Is Lord Cameron’s stock rising overseas too?

    What a contrast from Truss in the job!
    In answer to your observation about Sunil and myself; the reason we are prepared to say it as we see it is because neither of us fear being called 'Anti Semitic'. A shield that Israel has hidden behind for too long and a shield that has worked successfully on the more pusillanimous on here.

    There are also a few who are simply Islamaphobic and a few who support right wing causes of which Israel has has become one.

    I read a very good post of yours the other day. The first i'd seen since your gardening leave I looked for it's source so I could give it a 'like'. I can't remember the subject now but it was very perceptive.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,217

    eek said:

    https://x.com/eladgil/status/1736810406625292383?s=46&t=cxkq0jndvkhIwWZCCEL3QQ

    Circulating on chat groups right now “takeaway from Figma/Adobe is don’t open a UK office as a US startup”

    Sorry: that post has been deleted.
    From what I've been able to discern, massive company wanted to take over (relative) minnow in large deal. They both agreed, but minnow's lawyers put a cancellation clause in. Perhaps to prevent the situation I described below. Massive company did not factor in/realise the possibility of regulatory failure, and allowed minnow to put in a cancellation clause. The deal did not get regulatory approval, the deal was off, and minnow gets the cancellation fee.

    *If* that's what happened, it seems fine.

    It should be remembered that massive company may have gained information during arranging the deal that could allow
    them to destroy the small company.
    They were buying it for $20bn… not that small

    And the most sensitive data will have been in a clean room
    That's not the way it works IME - the buying company gets *lots* of data, esp. if they want to avoid another HP/Autonomy debacle.

    Also, the Minnow cannot do much other stuff, e.g. acquisition deals, without permission of the purchaser, for obvious reasons. Since this has been going on for well over a year, that can really hurt the Minnow.

    Finally, the cancellation fee is only 5% of the cost of the deal.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666
    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    Redfield & Wilton ends with a solid 18-point Labour lead. Compared to its first poll of 2023 on 2-3 January, Labour are down five, the Conservatives down three, the Liberal Democrats down one, the Greens up three and Reform up five. The Lab/LD/Green vs Con/Ref split tonight is 59-34 - at the beginning of the year it was 62-32 so not a lot of change in truth.

    59% is one of the lowest LLG scores for a while though. Lib Dems being down one is against the run of play for other pollsters.

    Labour are still scoring in the 40s. The whole Tory fightback narrative will of course kick into overdrive as soon as Labour get a polling score beginning with 3. They’ve got close a few times recently.
    Can’t read too much into one poll, but Labours war tanking is letting the LLG down.

    Tories can only have a fight back narrative with polling scores starting with 3 themselves. What’s interesting from Labour polling slump is Tories have their own malaise at same time, not benefiting from it.

    If Elder Statesman Lord Cameron is going to receive all the credit for the Tory flip flop on calling Israel to ceasefire, tonight’s politics hub on Sky was gushing in praise for him, then he must receive credit for saving Labours troubles on this at same time. Starmer and team kept within a micrometer of the government position on this, but the Tory letter from former ministers, remarks from Wallace, Cameron’s “sustained ceasefire” phrase today parroted by Sunak, is different in what way and language from the SNP and Labour left position 4 weeks ago?
    Obviously, I was in the loo and missed it, but the Gaza conflict has waged pretty fierce on a daily basis here on PB. Sunil and Roger versus just about everyone else? And thanks to David Cameron, Sunil and Roger are now winning.

    Conservative MPs sign letter calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza conflict 
    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-baroness-mone-ppe-labour-government-pandemic-transparency-12593360

    How is Sunak’s governments Damascene Conversion on Gaza conflict being reported in Europe and Rest of the world? Is Lord Cameron’s stock rising overseas too?

    What a contrast from Truss in the job!
    In answer to your observation about Sunil and myself; the reason we are prepared to say it as we see it is because neither of us fear being called 'Anti Semitic'. A shield that Israel has hidden behind for too long and a shield that has worked successfully on the more pusillanimous on here.

    There are also a few who are simply Islamaphobic and a few who support right wing causes of which Israel has has become one.

    I read a very good post of yours the other day. The first i'd seen since your gardening leave I looked for it's source so I could give it a 'like'. I can't remember the subject now but it was very perceptive.
    ‘I read a very good post of yours the other day…'….I can't remember the subject now but it was very perceptive.”

    Old age doesn’t come alone, alas.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    This seems to be a pretty consequential ruling for Trump's presidential immunity defence, too.
    Interesting thread.

    A FEW QUICK THOUGHTS ON THE ELEVENTH CIRCUIT OPINION ON MEADOWS.

    (1) This is an astonishing defeat for Meadows, on every front. He's not protected because he's a former officer (not a current one), and he's not protected even if CA11 turns out to be wrong on that question...

    https://twitter.com/lee_kovarsky/status/1736867625215418474

    AIUI his appeal was an attempt to get this case into Federal Court. The attraction for him of that is obvious: if it is a Federal conviction then a re-elected Trump could pardon him. His appeal was unsuccessful because the Georgian authorities said that there was no link between his Federal role and his attempt to pervert the electoral process in Georgia. The logic of this is indeed not good for Trump.

    There is some speculation that this might increase the pressure on Meadows to cut a deal but the prosecuting authorities are playing hard to get in that respect so far.
    According to legal analysis I've read on American fora, simply transferring State charges to a Federal court would not permit a presidential pardon, since the charges are still State based and would be tried, by a Federal Judge, based on State laws and procedures. The venue change was essentially meaningless and rather indicates that the alleged perpetrator doesn't know much about the law. And we all know what is said about ignorance of the law and applicable defences...
This discussion has been closed.