Categories
The WH2024 primaries will be different from what we are used to. – politicalbetting.com
The WH2024 primaries will be different from what we are used to. – politicalbetting.com
Next year’s White House Race will be the sixth to be covered since PB was founded in 2024. But there will be one big difference and that is the order in which states hold their primaries. We are all used to the Iowa caucuses being the first State to divide with the first proper primary being in New Hampshire.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Thanks for the update
Guy could fall over at any minute.
What next? Needs a longer mnemonic, surely?
The battle is to get him back to the 51% he got in 2020 and much of that likely depends on the outcome of Trump's courtcases
"They were the descendants of the immigrants whose numbers Powell wanted to be limited. Powell’s argument was almost completely centred on the fact that the dependents of the immigrants would struggle to assimilate"
I said that Anthony Small was likewise a descendant of immigrants whose numbers Powell wanted to be limited, coming as they did from Jamaica, but this doesn't correlate with those descendants' ability to assimilate, nor with their radicalisation. They are Brits and have been radicalised.
As for Powell's (and your?) point about descendants of immigrants struggling to assimilate I would disagree with that very strongly. Just look around you. Unless you base it on the colour of their skin only.
If you are, say, a disaffected young black man from Lewisham - aggrieved at the perceived injustice of white society - then you will look for a belief system that empowers and embodies your anger. That role used to be fulfilled by radical left wing thought - eg the Black Panthers
However, left wing thought has largely collapsed as a coherent ideology, or it has folded itself into the worldwide creed of Islam. This is an ancient global religion which is seen as opposed to the West, as powerful in itself, and- not least- gives young men a self respect and a sense of deep superiority over women and non believers = Kaffirs
Suddenly you are not the abject descendant of slaves you are a member of the chosen, A devout Muslim.
I can absolutely see why this appeals to angry black men - and indeed angry white men. And all else being equal I would say good luck to them, Islam is a noble religion, at its best, and surely offers a happier, more meaningful life than base materialism on the lower rungs of capitalist society. Cf Muhammad Ali
The trouble is many are attracted to the more extreme forms of Islam which require violent attack on westerners and the West
However, what the plod didn't realise was the gang were grooming kids as young as 10 or 11 to do their dealing work for them. One victim said he knew of 40-50 other kids recruited to do this. But there was also weirdness that was never really explained e.g. they found videos of very young kids saying they loved a particular couple of individuals in this gang in the backs of their cars.
Long and short of it this gang ran all the drugs in Rochdale, they were paying off members of the public to not go through with prosecutions, they corrupted a jury, they found police officer was very close with them, constant phone calls and had been taking CPS case files home with them (but the documentary said CPS decided not to prosecute nor plod authorities which stank).
I think the trial was 2019/2020. But I don't think it had ever been shown the true extent of this gangs activities. Not only did they run 15 different drugs lines in Rochdale and surrounding areas, they were involved in all sorts of things.
Also, never really explained how the head of the gang could run large establishments in the town that needed permits etc, but had registered he had no income, and seems common knowledge he was involved in all of this.
The whole thing stinks from top to bottom and I don't believe such a gang can operate so openly for 10+ years without help.
I’d say the Islamic immigrants have struggled to assimilate, and that BLM shows that black immigration has had its problems too, else there’d be no BLM
Oh and the mastermind of the operation, only got 2 years for money laundering, so is probably out now.
She said she felt London - which she knows quite deeply - is much more successfully multiracial than Paris; I agreed - tho it is a low bar, given the friction in Paris
Sadly, I had to explain to her that things are much worse in smaller northern towns. She has never been to Bradford or Rochdale…
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-data-gps-and-gp-practices/
Someone's put it in Duke Nuke 'Em
https://twitter.com/dandouglas/status/1728025018561368154?t=09bV1RI94JJltd7EqcW0_w&s=19
He told me that whenever he asks his grandparents about it, they literally cannot talk about it, and they start crying. He told me that is extremely common in Cambodia. The people that remember it vividly cannot even mention it, they simply burst into tears
imagine that level of trauma across an entire generation, of an entire country
And we thought the Truss lettuce month was bad
There are plenty of reasons why people turn to crime. You are saying that peoples' race or religion is one such factor. I am not so sure. You also say that "black immigration has had its problems too". Damn right it has. There has since the outset been the most shocking degree of racism directed at black people and frankly if there is an overshoot (I think BLM are a bunch of tossers but am quite content to see footballers demonstrate that they are against racism) then so what.
What I am not clear is what sort of Britain you want to live in. Is it one without crime but with all flavours of the globe living here; is it one whereby all children of Ghanaian parents go to Eton and speak proper; is it one where there is just as much crime as there is now but it is committed by (presumably white) British people?
And where would you draw the line of who gets in and who doesn't? Before or after Huguenots? Jews? Ugandan Asians? Windrush?
What sort of Britain are people supposed to assimilate into?
Would 7/7, the murder of Lee Rigby or the mass rape of northern girls by Asian taxi drivers in the North have happened without mass immigration and the lack of assimilation that followed?
The answer is no
The question is, ‘Is it a price worth paying?’, most people on here seem to think ‘Yes’
7 bins..
https://x.com/dandouglas/status/1704622305748390312?s=20
Much more interesting than the rise of the racists.
Plus you haven't answered my question(s).
As demonstrated very well by magicians Penn & Teller. https://youtube.com/watch?v=i0m8CC7Ovj8
"Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White.4 Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian offenders relative to the demographics of national populations.5 However, it is not possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending. This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples were selected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way that ethnicity data is collected.6 During our conversations with police forces, we have found that in the operations reflected, offender groups come from diverse backgrounds, with each group being broadly ethnically homogenous. However, there are cases where offenders within groups come from different backgrounds.7"
You have picked out 2 individual occurrences of terrorism committed by (first or second generation) immigrants, but how representative is that? The source I gave looks at total numbers through sound statistical approaches. It gives multiple citations. You can go read them all. Immigration is not associated with violent crime.
If you want to talk about terrorism specifically, the 3500 killed in The Troubles by home-grown, white terrorists was far, far larger.
That would be especially true in New Hampshire.
Though this year, I will allow it if only because I think there is an outside chance that Haley could - just could - cause an upset in one of the early states and turn this into a 1-on-1 contest with Trump.
The original invasion was sanctioned by the Pope, just imagine the reaction if it was sanctioned by a Caliph or an Ayatollah.
She’s been as adamant as anyone can be on these things that she will never, ever, run for elected office. Full stop.
When antibiotics became common, some American doctors became careless about washing their hands between patients. One pediatric hospital found a clever way to encourage them: Instead of ordering them to, or having the nurses rat on them, they enlisted the children, who were told to ask their doctor, when he came to see them, if he had washed his hands. As I recall, this did cut down on hospital-acquired infections.
Another estimate says the true figure could be as high as one million. From which far right website did I get that? Ah yes, the Labour MP for Rotherham, Sarah Champion. Who, I suspect, might just know more about this than some dull witted semi academic like you
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/child-sex-abuse-gangs-could-5114029
Other estimates range from 100,000 to 500,000. All quite believable when you realise that a mid size city like Rotherham (population 260,000) yielded 1400 victims by itself
Can I just say, however, what a brilliant addition you are to PB. Simultaneously full of pious conviction yet entertainingly thick as shit. Do keep posting
Why did you tell us that?
"Abstract
Scholars recognize that individuals change how they racially identify themselves over time and even from situation to situation. Politicians, however, are typically presumed to have stable, innate racial identities. In this article, I contend that politicians strategically change their self-professed race in response to electoral incentives. Using original data from Brazilian elections, I show that more than a quarter of the political candidates that competed in Brazil’s 2014 and 2016 elections changed their publicly declared race from one election to the next. My analysis indicates the racial composition of the electorate and the electoral rules that govern competition affect patterns of racial change. These results suggest that candidates “racially position” themselves as members of the racial group that provides the greatest electoral rewards. This strategic behavior calls into question extant theories which assume elite racial group membership is fixed and exogenous to electoral outcomes."
source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261379421000603
If you don't like how they've written it, take it up with them. They being:
- Chief Constable Simon Bailey QPM (National Police Chiefs Council lead on
child protection)
- Dr Helen Beckett (Director, The International Centre: Researching child sexual
exploitation, violence and trafficking, University of Bedfordshire)
- Sarah Champion MP (Member of Parliament for Rotherham)
- Rosina Cottage QC (Barrister QC and member of the Sentencing Council)
- Donald Findlater (Director of Stop It Now!, Lucy Faithfull Foundation)
- Imran Khan MP (Member of Parliament for Wakefield)
- Dr Sophie Laws (Deputy Director Research and Evaluation, Centre of expertise
on child sexual abuse)
- Anne Longfield (Children’s Commissioner for England)
- Fay Maxted (CEO, The Survivors Trust)
- Trevor Pearce CBE QPM (Chair of UK Anti-Doping, previously Director General
of the National Crime Squad and the Serious Organised Crime Agency)
- Sheila Taylor MBE (CEO, NWG Network)
- Sammy Woodhouse (CSE Survivor and Campaigner)
Bookmark this. Currently 18 to be the Democrat nominee.
Almost every Palestinian family in the West Bank is thought to have had a relative detained by Israel at some point in the past
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67522703
Why did you pick out the bit that said more than half of it is done by ninety percent of the population?
What does that tell us, other than the suggestion that you might think that one ethnic group committing over half of the offences is relevant, whatever the proportion of that ethnic group within the population?
If you do want a crime that a minority group commits more than half of; check out female "circumcision"
their wilful misunderstandings & virtue signalling
You can reach tens of thousands of victims just by adding up the cases we actually know of, specifically. 1400 in Rotherham, 1000 in Telford, and so on and so forth
At least 50 towns have now seen court cases judging crimes of this nature:
Keighley (2005 and 2013), Blackpool (2006), Oldham (2007 and 2008), Blackburn (2007, 2008 and 2009), Sheffield (2008), Manchester (2008 and 2013) Skipton (2009), Rochdale (two cases in 2010, one in 2012 and another in 2013), Nelson (2010), Preston (2010) Derby (2010), Bradford (2012), Ipswich (2013), Birmingham (2013), Oxford (2013), Barking (2013) and Peterborough (2013). And on and on and on
https://x.com/KEdge23/status/1728073563645632666?s=20
Even the bloke who doesn't know how to use contactless payments or fill his car up says what the side of the hammer, are you sure...to which the response is, yes.
Shock horror tw@tter spreading BS. But I bet HIGNFY will show it out of context.
If this is a topic you are concerned about, I recommend the full report.
Female "circumcision" is a hugely concerning problem too. I am glad the government has taken action on it. When we look at crime more generally, there is minimal link between immigration and crime, and studies that have found small links have found decreases as often as increases, as per sources given in the last thread.
Sir Mark Rowley said no other country in the world would haul one of its most highly trained officers before the courts for bravely trying to preserve life, as he called for the system of accountability to be urgently reviewed.
His comments came after a jury at Southwark Crown Court cleared Pc Paul Fisher of dangerous driving following a six-day trial.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/24/mark-rowley-prosecution-of-policeman-terror-attack-london/
It's like saying "this six sided die isn't loaded - it doesn't roll a one more than half of the time. Now listen to some more of our stats"
"Geert Wilders
@geertwilderspvv
So it’s news that we won the Dutch elections. Get used to it. Many more European countries will follow. Freedom and patriotism - our own nations and people first - is the new political reality. "
https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1728056875290067289
(Watch the clip it’s delicious) https://x.com/edwardthardy/status/1728064088201412830?s=61&t=R6lKH2EZT0v_boZqogHuwA
… more or less excruciating than Miliband eating that sarnie?
https://x.com/uklabour/status/1728068987047584222
When you childishly go "duuurrrhhh!!!" At the wrong person..
I don’t think she would want the pressure of being labelled the only person who could save the country. From everything I have seen of her, she is a very intelligent and independent-minded person who has her principles and isn’t one to bend. But hey, you could say stranger things have happened. I’m just not tempted to put money on it. I’d actually be looking for longer odds than that.
The only danger for Lab is that the woman who instructed him to do it that way takes it up and it turns into a Lab dissing her story, particularly if it's a Lab metropolitan liberal elite tweeter sticking it to a hard working salt of the earth type from the red wall and/or can be spun that way.
As issues like migration, citizenship, multi-culturalism, race relations, and the place of religion in modern society, are touchy at best, and downright dangerous if you get it wrong the political classes as a whole have preferred to tell people "that thing you see happening isn't happening" or entirely ignore the issues altogether. If mainstream politicians keep doing that eventually the people will start electing the cranks who will touch such issues. Which is what keeps happening, and will keep happening until people who consider themselves to be smarter, and better, and progressive start engaging with such issues.
*Did he?! It's believable, unfortunately. He had some very bad advisers, I think. No one ever looks good eating things.