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Deflating Rishi Sunak, again – politicalbetting.com
Deflating Rishi Sunak, again – politicalbetting.com
Drop in inflation rate little or nothing to do with government, say six in ten BritonsTo what extent is drop in inflation down to govt actions?Great deal: 4%Fair amount: 16%Not very much: 37%Not at all: 24%https://t.co/Zwn3mJdu4y pic.twitter.com/R74gDXroNc
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And didn't a certain senior pol conflate 'debt' and 'deficit' in a major policy speech very recently, or do I misremember?
But, 'mince' apart, that's an interesting header.
If we'd simply talk about the first derivative of prices then there would be no confusion.
ETA: Ah, Carnyx just made a similar point.
"Do you feel better off / safer / looked after?" etc. That's what matters. Credible govt stats help form that view but only help - and reinforce rather than lead.
"The Gilets Jaunes achieved nothing
Their revolution became an absurdity
By John Lichfield"
https://unherd.com/2023/11/the-gilets-jaunes-achieved-nothing/
Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it
Start at t=0 years, at t=1.5 year inflation is 10%, most of it recent (occurring from t=1.0 to t=1.5, say, even though the measure is from t=0.5) . PM promises to halve inflation by end of year (t=2). This likely does require price reductions (say prices went up by 1% from t=0.5 to t=1.0 and 9% - ignore compounding - from t=1.0 to t=1.5; to get to a 5% increase from t=1.0 to t=2.0 at the end of the year, you're going to need price falls from t=1.5)
TSE, homo modestus et fabulosus.
A. It wasn't the Tories' fault that inflation jumped up above 10%, and they don't get any credit for halving it, or
B. It's their fault it jumped so high, and it's thanks to their actions it's halved.
Rishi is trying to claim the rise inflation was down to uncontrollable global factors but the fall is all down to great domestic policy. Nobody's going to buy that. Everyone knows the reality is basically A.
🔴 Lab 45% (-3)
🔵 Con 25% (+1)
🟠 LD 11% (+2)
⚪ Ref 10% (+2)
🟢 Green 5% (-1)
🟡 SNP 3% (NC)
https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1725537036482875772
That's hardly a consolation for him, as the poll implies the numpties (sorry, electorate) expect prices to be falling.
One of the things Boris apparently wanted to do was to take care of the hanging baskets in high streets, the idea being that it’s an easily noticeable local improvement that people will reference.
Three polls taken prior to the reshuffle and three after.
Whilst the Conservatives are continuing to tend down slightly (notwithstanding Deltapoll's +4), Labour has dropped below 45%.
When people have decided, they are not easily persuaded otherwise.
If Sunak made money fall from the sky, he would be damned for littering.
Had a long convo with my Surrey tory friend on way to station.
I’m as near certain as I can be that the tories are toast at the next election. When a lifelong Conservative voter is spitting with anger about them and their policies it should tell you something. I’ve never known anything like it.
It’s an anecdote. And some of you may be understandably sceptical, especially third hand via a leftie source. But not of the national opinion polls, you shouldn’t.
20% tory mean over the last 4 polls confirms the current national mood.
Prices still rising well ahead of 2% pa target is not a cause of celebration.
Reform is perking up.
PeoplePolling 19%
FindOutNow 19%
Techne 22%
YouGov 21%
Ipsos 25%
WeThink 25%
Average = 21.8%
The reason for the big drop this month is the energy cap fudge. Take out energy from the equation, and housing costs went up!
Does Sunak deserve any credit for this? Not really. The Bank seriously screwed up by failing to raise interest rates early enough but they are supposedly independent. I think some pressure was put on the Bank by the Treasury but by then even the Bank could see that they had got it seriously wrong. I am struggling to think of any government policy, other than the gas cap, that has materially affected inflation.
Deposits shouldn't be a problem- £325k to stand everywhere, which would be cheap for the coverage it unlocks.
650 candidates? Harder, but they don't have to be local to each place.
Nominations? 10 per candidate, which shouldn't be impossible (see Natural Law).
Most of them will be paper candidates, sure, but if the aim is to be an anti-Conservative spoiler, that's not an issue.
- When there's economic bad news or bad policy the Tory VI goes down, as does RefUK, and Labour and Lib Dems go up.
- When there's bad news or bad policy on cultural issues like immigration and race, Tory VI goes down and RefUK goes up
- When there's shit going into the sea from sewage pipes or a nasty heatwave Tory VI goes down and Green and Lib Dem go up
- When there's nothing much going on in the news, Tory VI goes up, Labour goes down a tad and RefUK plummets
So next week assuming the focus is on the Autumn statement we should be seeing Con-Lab swings, and a decline in Ref as the salience of their pet issues declines.
For revolutionaries, the worse things get, the better their imagine their chances to be.
How has this huge political story not been covered here?
Credit where it's due.
The real issue is that whatever the Government try to do, try not to do, achieve fail; is really irrelevant. 12 years people want a change, you cannot fight that.
A small example, back in the 80's and 90's The Liberal Alliance and then Lib Dems were a majority on Westhoughton Town Council and held the area Bolton Council wards, Come Clegg, Tuition Fees etc they crashed. Now what 8 years later, almost a decade they yesterday have returned to the status quo. It is the swing of the pendulum and it cannot be stopped.
Really just a question whether they Cons can hold 100, maybe 150 , perhaps 200 seats, nothing else for them to hope for. Anything else is a total pipedream.
Indeed.
And massively rich, a lot of it through marriage into overseas wealth so it's doubly unrelatable to most people.
Perhaps it would matter less if he wasn’t such a total knob: hectoring the public from his private jet and getting irritated when a journalist pleb dares to ask him a searching question.
I’m beginning to think he’s little better than Boris. Possibly worse. At least Boris could relate to people.
If there's one rumour circulating in the press right now that seems likely to be true, it's of Hunt preparing to slash IHT. Yet more bribery of house price infatuated old farts and their expectant heirs is only to be expected. These may be just about the only people left liable to be persuaded of the merits of voting Tory, but there are also a lot of them.
They are on 29% with a ten point deduction.
Well, it’ll be interesting to see if the last two show an uptick. If so then it ‘might’ suggest that Suella’s onsla However … has there ever been a 4 or 5 years of such utter shitshowsery when the tories have been in charge?
Answer: No.
Nor anything even remotely close.
And it comes after 13 years in power when they would have had a hard job retaining power anyway, even if they hadn’t so right royally screwed it all up.
I disliked Boris because he was an out-and-out scumbag. But some people loved him and still do. He reached parts no other tory politician could, or still can.
At least a 5% uptick if he was leader. Possibly 10%.
Imho.
I don't see it. His inability to take the covid laws that he imposed on the nation seriously would not be forgiven.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-67444742
Seems some on here ought to be careful:
"Houghton had previously pleaded guilty to one count of intentionally causing harassment, alarm or distress at Sheffield Magistrates' Court on 2 October."
Quite often posts on here seek to do just that!
A left-of-centre woman on here is rare on two counts. Let’s leave out the personal attacks … by men of a certain age. It’s not a good look.
Thanks.
xx
He is also an ideological dead-end, however, which is not what the Tories need.
I don't know, the wealthy grey vote might be sufficiently mollified by Starmer to sit on its hands, and some might even defect to Labour if offered sufficiently generous bribes in the manifesto, but the Tories have been good for them from a purely selfish point of view (and one never got anywhere by assuming that the average voter is anything other than completely selfish.) So we shall have to wait and see which way they jump.
One catch, though- in 2019, the Brexit Party stood down in Conservative seats. Assuming they don't do that this time, the impact will hit on the likely red/blue battleground for 2024.
The negative for Reform is that it’s a Farage vehicle. By that, I mean that he is political marmite (trending towards the “hate it” variety) and it’s hard to see him being able to expand his appeal.
BUT:
I do think that as the Tories sink lower and lower in the polls there is the non-insignificant risk of a schism, and we could see some movement from the Tories to Reform.
If you had for instance an exodus of people like Braverman, Johnson, Patel, JRM - ostensibly around a “the Tories are done, come join us” it would give the party more publicity and some voters might be tempted. Not enough to win an election of course, or win more than a handful of seats (if that), but enough to do a little damage to Labour and a lot of damage to the rTories.
“Burn Gaza now”
When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez
I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified
Hence “never again is now”
But as anti semitism sweeps the world Israelis are saying: fuck it who cares. Defend Israel. Make it unconquerable. Never again is now
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_fascism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otzma_Yehudit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissim_Vaturi
The Hamas attack was appalling and Israel has every right to try and remove them, but one wonders if their previous actions regarding things like settlements made things worse and whether the current level of activity will also do so.
Maybe a lot more innocent Israeli and Palestinian lives are being, and will be lost, because of a too hard line approach to the problem in the past and currently which generates a greater number of terrorists.