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Deflating Rishi Sunak, again – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited November 2023 in General
Deflating Rishi Sunak, again – politicalbetting.com

Drop in inflation rate little or nothing to do with government, say six in ten BritonsTo what extent is drop in inflation down to govt actions?Great deal: 4%Fair amount: 16%Not very much: 37%Not at all: 24%https://t.co/Zwn3mJdu4y pic.twitter.com/R74gDXroNc

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    E pluribus unum?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635
    edited November 2023
    Not sure that that is entirely fair to the GBP. . It all depnds whether you take the total prce or the first or second order differential. All are used in political debate. Sometimes deliberately to obfuscate.

    And didn't a certain senior pol conflate 'debt' and 'deficit' in a major policy speech very recently, or do I misremember?

    But, 'mince' apart, that's an interesting header.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    edited November 2023
    Serves us all right for using silly terms like inflation.

    If we'd simply talk about the first derivative of prices then there would be no confusion.

    ETA: Ah, Carnyx just made a similar point.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    For once, I have some sympathy with the government. They get the blame for rising inflation, but no credit for falling inflation. In reality, both the rise, and the fall, are the result of external factors.
  • Options

    E pluribus unum?

    I don't know Latin, but won't it be primus?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635

    E pluribus unum?

    I don't know Latin, but won't it be primus?
    Yep, and correctly inflected, assuming TSE is (a) referring to himself and (b) doesn't think he is feminine or neuter.
  • Options
    Carnyx said:

    E pluribus unum?

    I don't know Latin, but won't it be primus?
    Yep, and correctly inflected, assuming TSE is (a) referring to himself and (b) doesn't think he is feminine or neuter.
    I was focusing on the ONE in out of many, one.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    edited November 2023
    O/T

    "The Gilets Jaunes achieved nothing
    Their revolution became an absurdity
    By John Lichfield"

    https://unherd.com/2023/11/the-gilets-jaunes-achieved-nothing/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    Selebian said:

    Serves us all right for using silly terms like inflation.

    If we'd simply talk about the first derivative of prices then there would be no confusion.

    ETA: Ah, Carnyx just made a similar point.

    To be fair, halving inflation could theoretically mean decreasing prices.
    Start at t=0 years, at t=1.5 year inflation is 10%, most of it recent (occurring from t=1.0 to t=1.5, say, even though the measure is from t=0.5) . PM promises to halve inflation by end of year (t=2). This likely does require price reductions (say prices went up by 1% from t=0.5 to t=1.0 and 9% - ignore compounding - from t=1.0 to t=1.5; to get to a 5% increase from t=1.0 to t=2.0 at the end of the year, you're going to need price falls from t=1.5)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Carnyx said:

    E pluribus unum?

    I don't know Latin, but won't it be primus?
    Yep, and correctly inflected, assuming TSE is (a) referring to himself and (b) doesn't think he is feminine or neuter.
    I assumed it was a reference to the trajectory of Conservative MPs - from many to one.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    edited November 2023
    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    Rates will continue to rise *in impact* for well over two years yet because what matters is not whether rates are higher or lower than they were this time last week/month but whether they're higher or lower than when the last deal on the person's mortgage in question was set, which is typically 2-5 years ago.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474

    E pluribus unum?

    I don't know Latin, but won't it be primus?
    Modestus, I thought ?

    TSE, homo modestus et fabulosus.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    Thing is the equation needs to balance. Either:

    A. It wasn't the Tories' fault that inflation jumped up above 10%, and they don't get any credit for halving it, or

    B. It's their fault it jumped so high, and it's thanks to their actions it's halved.

    Rishi is trying to claim the rise inflation was down to uncontrollable global factors but the fall is all down to great domestic policy. Nobody's going to buy that. Everyone knows the reality is basically A.
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    NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 686
    edited November 2023
    WeThink (Omnisis) polling has just dropped. HYUFD will be pleased.

    🔴 Lab 45% (-3)
    🔵 Con 25% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (+2)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1725537036482875772
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    WeThink (Omnisis) polling has just dropped. HYUFD will be pleased.

    🔴 Lab 45% (-3)
    🔵 Con 25% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (+2)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1725537036482875772

    Fieldwork dates?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    WeThink (Omnisis) polling has just dropped. HYUFD will be pleased.

    🔴 Lab 45% (-3)
    🔵 Con 25% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (+2)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1725537036482875772

    Fieldwork dates?
    It's on the graphic:

    image
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    ...If Sunak wants any consolation, the UK public are thick as mince when it comes to inflation..

    That's hardly a consolation for him, as the poll implies the numpties (sorry, electorate) expect prices to be falling.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911

    On topic, Sunak is going all project manager, with dashboards and success criteria (set and marked by him). Politics takes a bigger view than that and it's not one he's adept at seeing, never mind responding to.

    "Do you feel better off / safer / looked after?" etc. That's what matters. Credible govt stats help form that view but only help - and reinforce rather than lead.

    Yes. Foxes vs hedgehogs

    One of the things Boris apparently wanted to do was to take care of the hanging baskets in high streets, the idea being that it’s an easily noticeable local improvement that people will reference.
  • Options

    WeThink (Omnisis) polling has just dropped. HYUFD will be pleased.

    🔴 Lab 45% (-3)
    🔵 Con 25% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (+2)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1725537036482875772

    Fieldwork dates?
    It's on the graphic:

    image
    Paging @Leon
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    An amusing video on Twitter about the Tory government: https://x.com/larryandpaul/status/1725408432440954893
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980

    WeThink (Omnisis) polling has just dropped. HYUFD will be pleased.

    🔴 Lab 45% (-3)
    🔵 Con 25% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (+2)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1725537036482875772

    Fieldwork dates?
    It's on the graphic:

    image
    Paging @Leon
    Fantastic, the Tories might now hold Epping Forest!
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    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    I almost always vote Tory (the very rare occasions is when friends have stood for other parties and I back them as friends). However Sunak is utterly useless. He really has no clue about how to attract voters and gives off the vibe of being superior to most. His bringing back of Baron Cameron of Pigf*ck is a classic example of someone who just does not know how to read the electorate pf today.
  • Options
    The weekly average.



    Three polls taken prior to the reshuffle and three after.

    Whilst the Conservatives are continuing to tend down slightly (notwithstanding Deltapoll's +4), Labour has dropped below 45%.
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    isam said:

    On topic, Sunak is going all project manager, with dashboards and success criteria (set and marked by him). Politics takes a bigger view than that and it's not one he's adept at seeing, never mind responding to.

    "Do you feel better off / safer / looked after?" etc. That's what matters. Credible govt stats help form that view but only help - and reinforce rather than lead.

    Yes. Foxes vs hedgehogs

    One of the things Boris apparently wanted to do was to take care of the hanging baskets in high streets, the idea being that it’s an easily noticeable local improvement that people will reference.
    I always said that the Boris Johnson idea of levelling up was to give councils a few quid for hanging baskets, but I had no idea this was literally true. What a condescending prick!
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Serves us all right for using silly terms like inflation.

    If we'd simply talk about the first derivative of prices then there would be no confusion.

    ETA: Ah, Carnyx just made a similar point.

    To be fair, halving inflation could theoretically mean decreasing prices.
    Start at t=0 years, at t=1.5 year inflation is 10%, most of it recent (occurring from t=1.0 to t=1.5, say, even though the measure is from t=0.5) . PM promises to halve inflation by end of year (t=2). This likely does require price reductions (say prices went up by 1% from t=0.5 to t=1.0 and 9% - ignore compounding - from t=1.0 to t=1.5; to get to a 5% increase from t=1.0 to t=2.0 at the end of the year, you're going to need price falls from t=1.5)
    I'm glad you did this because I was going to and it would have in my hands got quite torrid.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    Thing is the equation needs to balance. Either:

    A. It wasn't the Tories' fault that inflation jumped up above 10%, and they don't get any credit for halving it, or

    B. It's their fault it jumped so high, and it's thanks to their actions it's halved.

    Rishi is trying to claim the rise inflation was down to uncontrollable global factors but the fall is all down to great domestic policy. Nobody's going to buy that. Everyone knows the reality is basically A.
    While that is all true, I think the reality of why Sunak doesnt get credit for his one in five is more simple.

    When people have decided, they are not easily persuaded otherwise.

    If Sunak made money fall from the sky, he would be damned for littering.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161

    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    I almost always vote Tory (the very rare occasions is when friends have stood for other parties and I back them as friends). However Sunak is utterly useless. He really has no clue about how to attract voters and gives off the vibe of being superior to most. His bringing back of Baron Cameron of Pigf*ck is a classic example of someone who just does not know how to read the electorate pf today.
    Don't leave us hanging then ... is this you saying you're not voting Tory next time?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,256
    Totally agree with @TSE

    Had a long convo with my Surrey tory friend on way to station.

    I’m as near certain as I can be that the tories are toast at the next election. When a lifelong Conservative voter is spitting with anger about them and their policies it should tell you something. I’ve never known anything like it.

    It’s an anecdote. And some of you may be understandably sceptical, especially third hand via a leftie source. But not of the national opinion polls, you shouldn’t.


    20% tory mean over the last 4 polls confirms the current national mood.

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161

    isam said:

    On topic, Sunak is going all project manager, with dashboards and success criteria (set and marked by him). Politics takes a bigger view than that and it's not one he's adept at seeing, never mind responding to.

    "Do you feel better off / safer / looked after?" etc. That's what matters. Credible govt stats help form that view but only help - and reinforce rather than lead.

    Yes. Foxes vs hedgehogs

    One of the things Boris apparently wanted to do was to take care of the hanging baskets in high streets, the idea being that it’s an easily noticeable local improvement that people will reference.
    I always said that the Boris Johnson idea of levelling up was to give councils a few quid for hanging baskets, but I had no idea this was literally true. What a condescending prick!
    Talk about the cheap end of 'retail' politics. More like car boot sale!
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,772
    Sunak just comes across now as a spoilt brat whinging that he didn’t get what he wanted . And his “ I’ll do whatever it takes re Rwanda “ leaves many thinking would you just stfu .
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    Sean_F said:

    For once, I have some sympathy with the government. They get the blame for rising inflation, but no credit for falling inflation. In reality, both the rise, and the fall, are the result of external factors.

    Except, restraint in public spending and pay settlements, and encouragement to the BoE in meeting it's inflation target, do have some bearing.
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    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    Rates will continue to rise *in impact* for well over two years yet because what matters is not whether rates are higher or lower than they were this time last week/month but whether they're higher or lower than when the last deal on the person's mortgage in question was set, which is typically 2-5 years ago.
    In my case, drumroll, that's in exactly 14 days time.
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    Carnyx said:

    Not sure that that is entirely fair to the GBP. . It all depnds whether you take the total prce or the first or second order differential. All are used in political debate. Sometimes deliberately to obfuscate.

    And didn't a certain senior pol conflate 'debt' and 'deficit' in a major policy speech very recently, or do I misremember?

    But, 'mince' apart, that's an interesting header.

    I’m not missing an opportunity to be condescending towards the plebs.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,596
    Sean_F said:

    For once, I have some sympathy with the government. They get the blame for rising inflation, but no credit for falling inflation. In reality, both the rise, and the fall, are the result of external factors.

    If prices went back to where they were two years ago, then the government might get credit.

    Prices still rising well ahead of 2% pa target is not a cause of celebration.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,596
    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    I'll give him credit for prices continuing to rise well ahead of the 2% pa target.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    Tory shares.

    PeoplePolling 19%
    FindOutNow 19%
    Techne 22%
    YouGov 21%
    Ipsos 25%
    WeThink 25%

    Average = 21.8%
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Putting this into EC gives the Tories 89 seats.


  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,596
    isam said:

    On topic, Sunak is going all project manager, with dashboards and success criteria (set and marked by him). Politics takes a bigger view than that and it's not one he's adept at seeing, never mind responding to.

    "Do you feel better off / safer / looked after?" etc. That's what matters. Credible govt stats help form that view but only help - and reinforce rather than lead.

    Yes. Foxes vs hedgehogs

    One of the things Boris apparently wanted to do was to take care of the hanging baskets in high streets, the idea being that it’s an easily noticeable local improvement that people will reference.
    I think the public would rather see Tory politicians hanging from lampposts, not baskets of flowers.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,318
    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    Cue the @MoonRabbit description of graph lines....
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960
    Barnesian said:

    Putting this into EC gives the Tories 89 seats.


    Where’s the one Con gain; Scotland?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    30% is looking like a 'stretch' target for the GE.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    Reform will surely not poll half that. Will they have the candidates? I’d be pretty down on them vs Green if it were an Even money match bet. The only snag could be if Farage came back as leader , esp if he does well in the jungle.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,191

    WeThink (Omnisis) polling has just dropped. HYUFD will be pleased.

    🔴 Lab 45% (-3)
    🔵 Con 25% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (+2)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1725537036482875772

    So when is switch over? Surely just a matter of time now.

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,191
    edited November 2023

    Barnesian said:

    Putting this into EC gives the Tories 89 seats.


    Where’s the one Con gain; Scotland?
    I don't know for sure but I suspect that it might be my new seat of Angus and the Glens. The SNP majority was quite modest in the old Angus and their vote has fallen by even more than the Tories.
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    DavidL said:

    WeThink (Omnisis) polling has just dropped. HYUFD will be pleased.

    🔴 Lab 45% (-3)
    🔵 Con 25% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (+2)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1725537036482875772

    So when is switch over? Surely just a matter of time now.

    LD and Con?
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    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    "Just 4.6%".
    The reason for the big drop this month is the energy cap fudge. Take out energy from the equation, and housing costs went up!
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    Carnyx said:

    E pluribus unum?

    I don't know Latin, but won't it be primus?
    Yep, and correctly inflected, assuming TSE is (a) referring to himself and (b) doesn't think he is feminine or neuter.
    I was focusing on the ONE in out of many, one.
    PB.com: Public_school Boys.com?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,191

    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    "Just 4.6%".
    The reason for the big drop this month is the energy cap fudge. Take out energy from the equation, and housing costs went up!
    Core inflation fell too. Food inflation, previously very high is now almost non existent. The gas cap may have exaggerated the top line reduction but the underlying trend is now clearly down.

    Does Sunak deserve any credit for this? Not really. The Bank seriously screwed up by failing to raise interest rates early enough but they are supposedly independent. I think some pressure was put on the Bank by the Treasury but by then even the Bank could see that they had got it seriously wrong. I am struggling to think of any government policy, other than the gas cap, that has materially affected inflation.
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    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    Reform will surely not poll half that. Will they have the candidates? I’d be pretty down on them vs Green if it were an Even money match bet. The only snag could be if Farage came back as leader , esp if he does well in the jungle.
    They'd need candidates, deposits and nominations.

    Deposits shouldn't be a problem- £325k to stand everywhere, which would be cheap for the coverage it unlocks.

    650 candidates? Harder, but they don't have to be local to each place.

    Nominations? 10 per candidate, which shouldn't be impossible (see Natural Law).

    Most of them will be paper candidates, sure, but if the aim is to be an anti-Conservative spoiler, that's not an issue.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting this into EC gives the Tories 89 seats.


    Where’s the one Con gain; Scotland?
    I don't know for sure but I suspect that it might be my new seat of Angus and the Glens. The SNP majority was quite modest in the old Angus and their vote has fallen by even more than the Tories.
    Didn't know you were standing, David! :wink: Big personal vote?
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,930
    What do our tech experts think of the new AI Pin from Humane? I have seen a claim that it can translate a person talking in a foreign language into your own. A real Babelfish.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,191

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    Reform will surely not poll half that. Will they have the candidates? I’d be pretty down on them vs Green if it were an Even money match bet. The only snag could be if Farage came back as leader , esp if he does well in the jungle.
    They'd need candidates, deposits and nominations.

    Deposits shouldn't be a problem- £325k to stand everywhere, which would be cheap for the coverage it unlocks.

    650 candidates? Harder, but they don't have to be local to each place.

    Nominations? 10 per candidate, which shouldn't be impossible (see Natural Law).

    Most of them will be paper candidates, sure, but if the aim is to be an anti-Conservative spoiler, that's not an issue.
    It is of course quite irrational for Reform to seek to damage the Tories so that they are replaced by Labour who are significantly further away from them on the spectrum and opposed to almost everything Reform want. But then, look at the idiocies of the Corbynites still trying to damage Labour. Politics contains much more than its fair share of irrationality.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    My new salience theory of polling:

    - When there's economic bad news or bad policy the Tory VI goes down, as does RefUK, and Labour and Lib Dems go up.
    - When there's bad news or bad policy on cultural issues like immigration and race, Tory VI goes down and RefUK goes up
    - When there's shit going into the sea from sewage pipes or a nasty heatwave Tory VI goes down and Green and Lib Dem go up
    - When there's nothing much going on in the news, Tory VI goes up, Labour goes down a tad and RefUK plummets

    So next week assuming the focus is on the Autumn statement we should be seeing Con-Lab swings, and a decline in Ref as the salience of their pet issues declines.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Serves us all right for using silly terms like inflation.

    If we'd simply talk about the first derivative of prices then there would be no confusion.

    ETA: Ah, Carnyx just made a similar point.

    To be fair, halving inflation could theoretically mean decreasing prices.
    Start at t=0 years, at t=1.5 year inflation is 10%, most of it recent (occurring from t=1.0 to t=1.5, say, even though the measure is from t=0.5) . PM promises to halve inflation by end of year (t=2). This likely does require price reductions (say prices went up by 1% from t=0.5 to t=1.0 and 9% - ignore compounding - from t=1.0 to t=1.5; to get to a 5% increase from t=1.0 to t=2.0 at the end of the year, you're going to need price falls from t=1.5)
    I'm glad you did this because I was going to and it would have in my hands got quite torrid.
    Yeah, positively simple and straightforward the way I explained it :lol: You can tell why my students love me :wink:
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,191
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting this into EC gives the Tories 89 seats.


    Where’s the one Con gain; Scotland?
    I don't know for sure but I suspect that it might be my new seat of Angus and the Glens. The SNP majority was quite modest in the old Angus and their vote has fallen by even more than the Tories.
    Didn't know you were standing, David! :wink: Big personal vote?
    Not standing and no. But I am being moved from Dundee West to Angus and the Glens.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    Thing is the equation needs to balance. Either:

    A. It wasn't the Tories' fault that inflation jumped up above 10%, and they don't get any credit for halving it, or

    B. It's their fault it jumped so high, and it's thanks to their actions it's halved.

    Rishi is trying to claim the rise inflation was down to uncontrollable global factors but the fall is all down to great domestic policy. Nobody's going to buy that. Everyone knows the reality is basically A.
    While that is all true, I think the reality of why Sunak doesnt get credit for his one in five is more simple.

    When people have decided, they are not easily persuaded otherwise.

    If Sunak made money fall from the sky, he would be damned for littering.
    Yes he's looking like what he is - a young inexperienced politician who has fluked to the top without having done the yards.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    TimS said:

    My new salience theory of polling:

    - When there's economic bad news or bad policy the Tory VI goes down, as does RefUK, and Labour and Lib Dems go up.
    - When there's bad news or bad policy on cultural issues like immigration and race, Tory VI goes down and RefUK goes up
    - When there's shit going into the sea from sewage pipes or a nasty heatwave Tory VI goes down and Green and Lib Dem go up
    - When there's nothing much going on in the news, Tory VI goes up, Labour goes down a tad and RefUK plummets

    So next week assuming the focus is on the Autumn statement we should be seeing Con-Lab swings, and a decline in Ref as the salience of their pet issues declines.

    I think there's a grain in truth about that. If the Government had the good sense to just shut up and not do anything or say anything, their popularity may go up. Every time they're in the news, the screaming starts :(
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    Reform will surely not poll half that. Will they have the candidates? I’d be pretty down on them vs Green if it were an Even money match bet. The only snag could be if Farage came back as leader , esp if he does well in the jungle.
    They'd need candidates, deposits and nominations.

    Deposits shouldn't be a problem- £325k to stand everywhere, which would be cheap for the coverage it unlocks.

    650 candidates? Harder, but they don't have to be local to each place.

    Nominations? 10 per candidate, which shouldn't be impossible (see Natural Law).

    Most of them will be paper candidates, sure, but if the aim is to be an anti-Conservative spoiler, that's not an issue.
    It is of course quite irrational for Reform to seek to damage the Tories so that they are replaced by Labour who are significantly further away from them on the spectrum and opposed to almost everything Reform want. But then, look at the idiocies of the Corbynites still trying to damage Labour. Politics contains much more than its fair share of irrationality.
    It's like the thinking behind Braverman's constructive resignation. If the supposedly wet Rishi loses, then the true right can take over in opposition, then Something Happens (think underpants gnomes) and we will have a properly right wing government starting in 2029 or so and lasting forever.

    For revolutionaries, the worse things get, the better their imagine their chances to be.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474

    Sean_F said:

    For once, I have some sympathy with the government. They get the blame for rising inflation, but no credit for falling inflation. In reality, both the rise, and the fall, are the result of external factors.

    Except, restraint in public spending and pay settlements, and encouragement to the BoE in meeting it's inflation target, do have some bearing.
    Indeed. Which is why I ticked the 'not very much' rather than 'none at all' box.

    Credit where it's due.
  • Options
    theakestheakes Posts: 841
    At 19% in the polls time for a new Tory leader? Oh yes he was just appointed to the Cabinet on Monday!
    The real issue is that whatever the Government try to do, try not to do, achieve fail; is really irrelevant. 12 years people want a change, you cannot fight that.
    A small example, back in the 80's and 90's The Liberal Alliance and then Lib Dems were a majority on Westhoughton Town Council and held the area Bolton Council wards, Come Clegg, Tuition Fees etc they crashed. Now what 8 years later, almost a decade they yesterday have returned to the status quo. It is the swing of the pendulum and it cannot be stopped.
    Really just a question whether they Cons can hold 100, maybe 150 , perhaps 200 seats, nothing else for them to hope for. Anything else is a total pipedream.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,191

    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    Reform will surely not poll half that. Will they have the candidates? I’d be pretty down on them vs Green if it were an Even money match bet. The only snag could be if Farage came back as leader , esp if he does well in the jungle.
    They'd need candidates, deposits and nominations.

    Deposits shouldn't be a problem- £325k to stand everywhere, which would be cheap for the coverage it unlocks.

    650 candidates? Harder, but they don't have to be local to each place.

    Nominations? 10 per candidate, which shouldn't be impossible (see Natural Law).

    Most of them will be paper candidates, sure, but if the aim is to be an anti-Conservative spoiler, that's not an issue.
    It is of course quite irrational for Reform to seek to damage the Tories so that they are replaced by Labour who are significantly further away from them on the spectrum and opposed to almost everything Reform want. But then, look at the idiocies of the Corbynites still trying to damage Labour. Politics contains much more than its fair share of irrationality.
    It's like the thinking behind Braverman's constructive resignation. If the supposedly wet Rishi loses, then the true right can take over in opposition, then Something Happens (think underpants gnomes) and we will have a properly right wing government starting in 2029 or so and lasting forever.

    For revolutionaries, the worse things get, the better their imagine their chances to be.

    I agree with @HYUFD that it is more likely than not that the Tories will go further right in opposition but that just means that they will lose again and badly at that. They will need a new Cameron/Osborne team to bring them back to the centre ground to win. There is a good chance those who will do that are not even in the Commons yet.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,256
    edited November 2023
    kinabalu said:


    Yes he's looking like what he is - a young inexperienced politician who has fluked to the top without having done the yards.


    Indeed.

    And massively rich, a lot of it through marriage into overseas wealth so it's doubly unrelatable to most people.

    Perhaps it would matter less if he wasn’t such a total knob: hectoring the public from his private jet and getting irritated when a journalist pleb dares to ask him a searching question.

    I’m beginning to think he’s little better than Boris. Possibly worse. At least Boris could relate to people.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,191
    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:


    Yes he's looking like what he is - a young inexperienced politician who has fluked to the top without having done the yards.


    Indeed.

    And massively rich, a lot of it through marriage into overseas wealth so it's doubly unrelatable to most people.

    Perhaps it would matter less if he wasn’t such a total knob: hectoring the public from his private jet and getting irritated when a pleb journalist dares to ask him a searching question.
    When I married my wife had several hundred pounds of savings and I had nowt so I can relate.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    Barnesian said:

    Putting this into EC gives the Tories 89 seats.


    Time for our regular reminder that the Conservative Party hasn't polled below 30% at a GE in its entire history, and there's every reason to suppose that a core vote strategy can maintain that record, especially against an Opposition that generates no enthusiasm whatsoever.

    If there's one rumour circulating in the press right now that seems likely to be true, it's of Hunt preparing to slash IHT. Yet more bribery of house price infatuated old farts and their expectant heirs is only to be expected. These may be just about the only people left liable to be persuaded of the merits of voting Tory, but there are also a lot of them.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,191
    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    I am not sure there would even be only 1 Conservative party had he held on.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,256
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory shares.

    PeoplePolling 19%
    FindOutNow 19%
    Techne 22%
    YouGov 21%
    Ipsos 25%
    WeThink 25%

    Average = 21.8%

    I haven’t seen the Ipsos yet.

    Well, it’ll be interesting to see if the last two show an uptick. If so then it ‘might’ suggest that Suella’s onsla
    pigeon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting this into EC gives the Tories 89 seats.


    Time for our regular reminder that the Conservative Party hasn't polled below 30% at a GE in its entire history, and there's every reason to suppose that a core vote strategy can maintain that record, especially against an Opposition that generates no enthusiasm whatsoever.

    However … has there ever been a 4 or 5 years of such utter shitshowsery when the tories have been in charge?

    Answer: No.

    Nor anything even remotely close.

    And it comes after 13 years in power when they would have had a hard job retaining power anyway, even if they hadn’t so right royally screwed it all up.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The inflation rate was 11% when Truss left office last October, it is now just 4.6%, so it has more than halved since Sunak and Hunt replaced Truss and Kwarteng and that has cut cost of living as wages start to rise more than prices. It will also help with mortgages as rates start to fall.

    Sunak deserves credit for that even if he doesn't get it

    I almost always vote Tory (the very rare occasions is when friends have stood for other parties and I back them as friends). However Sunak is utterly useless. He really has no clue about how to attract voters and gives off the vibe of being superior to most. His bringing back of Baron Cameron of Pigf*ck is a classic example of someone who just does not know how to read the electorate pf today.
    Don't leave us hanging then ... is this you saying you're not voting Tory next time?
    No. Funnily enough, the Conservative candidate in the local council by-election seems a very nice young gentleman so I may vote for him although our Green candidate is also very good. At the GE, no.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    I remain unconvinced of this. Its easy to forget the sound and fury around Partygate, and I have some sympathy for Johnson on this, as I don't think any of the events he was at were what the country thinks they were (most seemed to be pathetic Teams quizzes where people got a bit too close), to an awful lot of people took the covid restrictions seriously, and think that he didn't.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,256
    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    Agree with both halves of this.

    I disliked Boris because he was an out-and-out scumbag. But some people loved him and still do. He reached parts no other tory politician could, or still can.

    At least a 5% uptick if he was leader. Possibly 10%.

    Imho.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    Agree with both halves of this.

    I disliked Boris because he was an out-and-out scumbag. But some people loved him and still do. He reached parts no other tory politician could, or still can.

    At least a 5% uptick if he was leader. Possibly 10%.

    Imho.
    Come on, you are not humble!

    I don't see it. His inability to take the covid laws that he imposed on the nation seriously would not be forgiven.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    Reform will surely not poll half that. Will they have the candidates? I’d be pretty down on them vs Green if it were an Even money match bet. The only snag could be if Farage came back as leader , esp if he does well in the jungle.
    They'd need candidates, deposits and nominations.

    Deposits shouldn't be a problem- £325k to stand everywhere, which would be cheap for the coverage it unlocks.

    650 candidates? Harder, but they don't have to be local to each place.

    Nominations? 10 per candidate, which shouldn't be impossible (see Natural Law).

    Most of them will be paper candidates, sure, but if the aim is to be an anti-Conservative spoiler, that's not an issue.
    I’d expect them to win 2-3% overall, 10%+ in a handful of seats.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    This was dicussed at the time and I see he has now been given a suspended sentence. I was intrigued as to what the charge was:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-67444742

    Seems some on here ought to be careful:

    "Houghton had previously pleaded guilty to one count of intentionally causing harassment, alarm or distress at Sheffield Magistrates' Court on 2 October."

    Quite often posts on here seek to do just that!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    I remain unconvinced of this. Its easy to forget the sound and fury around Partygate, and I have some sympathy for Johnson on this, as I don't think any of the events he was at were what the country thinks they were (most seemed to be pathetic Teams quizzes where people got a bit too close), to an awful lot of people took the covid restrictions seriously, and think that he didn't.
    The "one rule for them..." argument is very emotive, even if it's not really justified. A lot of people act as though he personally ordered the police to arrest people going on walks.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,256

    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    Agree with both halves of this.

    I disliked Boris because he was an out-and-out scumbag. But some people loved him and still do. He reached parts no other tory politician could, or still can.

    At least a 5% uptick if he was leader. Possibly 10%.

    Imho.
    Come on, you are not humble!

    I don't see it. His inability to take the covid laws that he imposed on the nation seriously would not be forgiven.
    Leaving out your unnecessary Ad Hominem, I agree.

    A left-of-centre woman on here is rare on two counts. Let’s leave out the personal attacks … by men of a certain age. It’s not a good look.

    Thanks.

    xx
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    Agree with both halves of this.

    I disliked Boris because he was an out-and-out scumbag. But some people loved him and still do. He reached parts no other tory politician could, or still can.

    At least a 5% uptick if he was leader. Possibly 10%.

    Imho.
    Honestly I think his magic had run out, and too many saw him for what he is. That said, he is still a better politician and almost certainly a better campaigner than Sunak (not hard, but hey). So he probably would still lose but maybe not quite as badly. He’s a celebrity politician, and celebrities are given more leeway for comebacks than politicians.

    He is also an ideological dead-end, however, which is not what the Tories need.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    Agree with both halves of this.

    I disliked Boris because he was an out-and-out scumbag. But some people loved him and still do. He reached parts no other tory politician could, or still can.

    At least a 5% uptick if he was leader. Possibly 10%.

    Imho.
    Come on, you are not humble!

    I don't see it. His inability to take the covid laws that he imposed on the nation seriously would not be forgiven.
    Leaving out your unnecessary Ad Hominem, I agree.

    A left-of-centre woman on here is rare on two counts. Let’s leave out the personal attacks … by men of a certain age. It’s not a good look.

    Thanks.

    xx
    Its a joke. I have no idea what gender you are, how old you are. Nor do I care.
  • Options
    theakestheakes Posts: 841
    I stand corrected but cannot recall The Referendum Party in 1997 hitting double figure polling the year before then 97 election. Problem for Reform is lack of an electoral organisation in constituencies, it shows in current local by election efforts and poor results.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    I remain unconvinced of this. Its easy to forget the sound and fury around Partygate, and I have some sympathy for Johnson on this, as I don't think any of the events he was at were what the country thinks they were (most seemed to be pathetic Teams quizzes where people got a bit too close), to an awful lot of people took the covid restrictions seriously, and think that he didn't.
    The "one rule for them..." argument is very emotive, even if it's not really justified. A lot of people act as though he personally ordered the police to arrest people going on walks.
    I feel sympathy for him because I think he genuinely thought that they were complying, mostly and that was enough. That many in the nation became obsessed with strict adherence was perhaps an unforeseen consequence. The behaviour of the police (some forces more than others) was ridiculous. But then some cheered it on. Remember the polling on nightclub closures...
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,614
    edited November 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Not a Boris Johnson fan myself, but the Tories would probably be on 30% if he was leader.

    I don't agree. The current Govt would look like a smooth running machine compared to a Boris lead Govt moving from one scandal to another and the stuff the electorate really don't like is scandals, incompetence and a divided party. In fact I think most switchers between Labour/Tory are the non political who want to give the other side a chance because the current lot (whoever they might be) have had their time.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory shares.

    PeoplePolling 19%
    FindOutNow 19%
    Techne 22%
    YouGov 21%
    Ipsos 25%
    WeThink 25%

    Average = 21.8%

    I haven’t seen the Ipsos yet.

    Well, it’ll be interesting to see if the last two show an uptick. If so then it ‘might’ suggest that Suella’s onsla
    pigeon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Putting this into EC gives the Tories 89 seats.


    Time for our regular reminder that the Conservative Party hasn't polled below 30% at a GE in its entire history, and there's every reason to suppose that a core vote strategy can maintain that record, especially against an Opposition that generates no enthusiasm whatsoever.

    However … has there ever been a 4 or 5 years of such utter shitshowsery when the tories have been in charge?

    Answer: No.

    Nor anything even remotely close.

    And it comes after 13 years in power when they would have had a hard job retaining power anyway, even if they hadn’t so right royally screwed it all up.
    These are also 13 years from which important sections of the electorate have profited immensely. Your typical owner-occupying pensioner, just so long as they haven't succumbed to an ailment that's too expensive to be treated privately, has never had it so good.

    I don't know, the wealthy grey vote might be sufficiently mollified by Starmer to sit on its hands, and some might even defect to Labour if offered sufficiently generous bribes in the manifesto, but the Tories have been good for them from a purely selfish point of view (and one never got anywhere by assuming that the average voter is anything other than completely selfish.) So we shall have to wait and see which way they jump.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Tory line in the EMA chart is not showing any sign of life.
    Reform is perking up.

    Reform will surely not poll half that. Will they have the candidates? I’d be pretty down on them vs Green if it were an Even money match bet. The only snag could be if Farage came back as leader , esp if he does well in the jungle.
    They'd need candidates, deposits and nominations.

    Deposits shouldn't be a problem- £325k to stand everywhere, which would be cheap for the coverage it unlocks.

    650 candidates? Harder, but they don't have to be local to each place.

    Nominations? 10 per candidate, which shouldn't be impossible (see Natural Law).

    Most of them will be paper candidates, sure, but if the aim is to be an anti-Conservative spoiler, that's not an issue.
    I’d expect them to win 2-3% overall, 10%+ in a handful of seats.
    Yeah. Enough to tip a few more marginals out of the blue column, but no more.

    One catch, though- in 2019, the Brexit Party stood down in Conservative seats. Assuming they don't do that this time, the impact will hit on the likely red/blue battleground for 2024.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,441
    edited November 2023
    The positive for Reform is that it’s a Farage vehicle. By that, I mean they are guaranteed publicity.

    The negative for Reform is that it’s a Farage vehicle. By that, I mean that he is political marmite (trending towards the “hate it” variety) and it’s hard to see him being able to expand his appeal.

    BUT:

    I do think that as the Tories sink lower and lower in the polls there is the non-insignificant risk of a schism, and we could see some movement from the Tories to Reform.

    If you had for instance an exodus of people like Braverman, Johnson, Patel, JRM - ostensibly around a “the Tories are done, come join us” it would give the party more publicity and some voters might be tempted. Not enough to win an election of course, or win more than a handful of seats (if that), but enough to do a little damage to Labour and a lot of damage to the rTories.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Deputy member of the Knesset

    “Burn Gaza now”

    When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez



    I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified

    Hence “never again is now”
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Leon said:

    Deputy member of the Knesset

    “Burn Gaza now”

    When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez



    I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified

    Hence “never again is now”

    The problem is, of course, that I suspect this makes another holocaust more - not less - likely.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    theakes said:

    I stand corrected but cannot recall The Referendum Party in 1997 hitting double figure polling the year before then 97 election. Problem for Reform is lack of an electoral organisation in constituencies, it shows in current local by election efforts and poor results.

    Plus a serious problem with fruitcake candidates.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Deputy member of the Knesset

    “Burn Gaza now”

    When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez



    I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified

    Hence “never again is now”

    The problem is, of course, that I suspect this makes another holocaust more - not less - likely.
    Possibly. Probably. I dunno

    But as anti semitism sweeps the world Israelis are saying: fuck it who cares. Defend Israel. Make it unconquerable. Never again is now
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Deputy member of the Knesset

    “Burn Gaza now”

    When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez



    I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified

    Hence “never again is now”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kahanism
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_fascism
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otzma_Yehudit
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissim_Vaturi
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Ghedebrav said:

    theakes said:

    I stand corrected but cannot recall The Referendum Party in 1997 hitting double figure polling the year before then 97 election. Problem for Reform is lack of an electoral organisation in constituencies, it shows in current local by election efforts and poor results.

    Plus a serious problem with fruitcake candidates.
    One of the remarkable things about Farage's Brexit Party in 2019 was the number of plausible candidates he managed to present, Anne Widdecombe aside.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530

    Ghedebrav said:

    theakes said:

    I stand corrected but cannot recall The Referendum Party in 1997 hitting double figure polling the year before then 97 election. Problem for Reform is lack of an electoral organisation in constituencies, it shows in current local by election efforts and poor results.

    Plus a serious problem with fruitcake candidates.
    One of the remarkable things about Farage's Brexit Party in 2019 was the number of plausible candidates he managed to present, Anne Widdecombe aside.
    People like Dr David Bull. Respected TV doctor.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Deputy member of the Knesset

    “Burn Gaza now”

    When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez



    I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified

    Hence “never again is now”

    The problem is, of course, that I suspect this makes another holocaust more - not less - likely.
    Possibly. Probably. I dunno

    But as anti semitism sweeps the world Israelis are saying: fuck it who cares. Defend Israel. Make it unconquerable. Never again is now
    Where will the energy of the the "Free Palestine" activists in the West be directed if the end result is a one state solution called Isreal?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Deputy member of the Knesset

    “Burn Gaza now”

    When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez



    I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified

    Hence “never again is now”

    The problem is, of course, that I suspect this makes another holocaust more - not less - likely.
    Possibly. Probably. I dunno

    But as anti semitism sweeps the world Israelis are saying: fuck it who cares. Defend Israel. Make it unconquerable. Never again is now
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Arab_racism
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Deputy member of the Knesset

    “Burn Gaza now”

    When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez



    I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified

    Hence “never again is now”

    The problem is, of course, that I suspect this makes another holocaust more - not less - likely.
    Possibly. Probably. I dunno

    But as anti semitism sweeps the world Israelis are saying: fuck it who cares. Defend Israel. Make it unconquerable. Never again is now
    Where will the energy of the the "Free Palestine" activists in the West be directed if the end result is a one state solution called Isreal?
    No doubt “whitey” and the west will get the blame

  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,614
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Deputy member of the Knesset

    “Burn Gaza now”

    When it comes to Israel I am probably more sympathetic to the Israeli cause than most PBers. But Jeez



    I do gravely fear this is the mood of the new Israel (as I’ve said before) and we don’t quite grasp it. They are now beyond “we go so far then America stops us”. They want Gaza obliterated so the threat is gone *forever*. They want total victory south west and north. They think another Holocaust is at hand and anything is justified

    Hence “never again is now”

    I haven't commented on the conflict up until now because it is such a mess. I remember the 6 day war very well and was very pro Israel because it seemed that the Arab nations wanted it removed. However Israel seems to have gone too far over more recent years and this stirs up hostility and gives succour to the extremist on the other side c.f. the IRA in Northern Ireland. A more moderate approach and the likes of Hamas (who would still have existed) would get less support from those oppressed.

    The Hamas attack was appalling and Israel has every right to try and remove them, but one wonders if their previous actions regarding things like settlements made things worse and whether the current level of activity will also do so.

    Maybe a lot more innocent Israeli and Palestinian lives are being, and will be lost, because of a too hard line approach to the problem in the past and currently which generates a greater number of terrorists.
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