So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
A few more of these and the Tories will be averaging 20%. Remember when PB Tories were worried they might slip below 30%?
Perhaps the problem is the insane tin ear that the Tories seem to have acquired. It is not just that their policies are expensive, and of questionable use and/or effectiveness. It is the way they seem determined to impose uselessness by any means possible, legal or indeed, as it turns out, illegal.
Then when you suggest that fighting woke wars on the same side as Trump or GB news might not be that popular, they then turn around and say that Reform/UKIP/New Party (or indeed son of BNP is in danger of outflanking them on the right. Except that there is no danger of these fringe groups actually making it into the House of Commons. Farage is the most popular of them and has routinely failed to be elected. He is generally booed when he is recognised on the street, except, of course at the Tory Party conference., where he is hailed by the Gammon as "the coming man". The "far right" exists of course, but is little more than a chimera which the Tories use to justify their own far right instincts. The Tories have become the far right.
The problem now is that the Tories have alienated their moderate supporters: the active citizens that staff the CAB, run the town twinning groups, are active in the "big society". The moderate voters who aspire to decency and honesty and are prepared to listen to the argument.These socially responsible ex-Conservatives regard the current Tories as the get rich quick spivs whose attitude to the free market is quite similar to the water companies: pour shit into every river in the country and "Its fine if you can get away with it".
So the well heeled, educated undogmatic conservatives are defecting en bloc to the Liberal Democrats, and the Lib Dems will gain far more seats from the Tories than the Right, who will most likely gain none at all. Well, except for the fact that Farage is lionized by the Tory party conference and a significant number of Tories are now at least as right wing as Nigel and his pals.
So the strategy of alienate your moderate BBC core vote in favour of KGB news is well entrenched, but ignores the fact that no one cares about a far right megaphone, and they do still care about the BBC.
We do not (yet) see a Conservative wipe out based on the opinion polls, but in the ground we see incredible anti Tory swings in local government and in by elections. The Lib Dems are weak in the opinion polls, but smashing it in local government polls. So, it is quite possible that the Tories have not yet seen the worst in the opinion polls. Going into a GE campaign as clear losers may tweak the sympathy for the underdog, but equally, it might not.
Maybe the country just wants them gone like a water company wants raw sewage gone...
I see that the number of failing Maternity units is now 2/3, significantly up over the year. Something that I have regularly pointed out on here over the years.
My Trust is now one of these rated inadequate on safety, mostly due to inadequate staffing by midwives and doctors.
Not that I have much faith in the CQC, but this is a scandal that is systemic, and the numbers of lives lost makes the Post Office look like amateurs.
I am willing to bet serious money that many of the same failings appear in both scandals: arrogance, refusal to learn, attacking anyone raising concerns, callousness to those affected, shiny slogans and mission statements unaccompanied by action, second-rate staff, refusal to look at evidence, failure to implement recommendations, misallocation of resources/money and so on and on and on and on.
Note the last line. Since then there has been the scandal in Nottingham's maternity care - 1200 people affected I understand.
The phrase "lessons learned" now makes me want to vomit.
Those things wouldn't surprise me at all, but fails to explain specifically why maternity as opposed to other departments. This is despite, or perhaps because of, liability insurance exceeding salary costs to maternity units.
I need to be off shortly but there are reasons why maternity in particular fails in the UK.
Too many abortions ?
I do know a bit about neo-natal units (a subdivision of maternity), because they are very sensitive to demographic changes. If there's a pulse of inward migration then suddenly more babies are produced, because migrants are younger and younger women have babies. Population estimates are updated each year but it's a lagging indicator and it's entirely possible the number of babies may exceed the number of incubators. From memory this happened in the last twenty years in the South-east and it needed some rapid sorting, although my swiss-cheese memory is unreliable. I'm a bit worried if that's happening again, tbh.
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Reform is not UKIP, which built up a fair-sized councillor base, and had the European elections to keep it in the news. Nobody knows who its leaders are. It’s a vehicle for online protest.
I always thought that the Tories would get back up to 30% when the GE came. But not looking like it now. Although we need Rod Crosby swingback model to shed some light on it.
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Nigel Farage has been all over the news re IACGMOOH. (eta And there was some sort of march in London recently.) We know there are disaffected small-c conservative voters. Many DKs, some RefUKs. Come the election, RefUK probably won't stand in many seats and that alone will mean polls overstate their likely votes.
OK, that's a "Yes, I generally agree" from me. But I thought Mr Tice said he was determined to stand everywhere in GB, following the problems caused by them standing down in numerous seats last time. Also, I would have thought that the re-appointment of Lord Dave would be a red rag to the bullshitters.....
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Nigel Farage has been all over the news re IACGMOOH. (eta And there was some sort of march in London recently.) We know there are disaffected small-c conservative voters. Many DKs, some RefUKs. Come the election, RefUK probably won't stand in many seats and that alone will mean polls overstate their likely votes.
Yes, they are all air war and no ground war. I see no gains coming for them.
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Britain Elects @BritainElects Can someone direct us to @PeoplePolling 's data-tables, please. We haven't had sight of any for quite some time. Membership of the British Polling Council requires table publication of public polls. cc @GoodwinMJ
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
A few more of these and the Tories will be averaging 20%. Remember when PB Tories were worried they might slip below 30%?
Perhaps the problem is the insane tin ear that the Tories seem to have acquired. It is not just that their policies are expensive, and of questionable use and/or effectiveness. It is the way they seem determined to impose uselessness by any means possible, legal or indeed, as it turns out, illegal.
Then when you suggest that fighting woke wars on the same side as Trump or GB news might not be that popular, they then turn around and say that Reform/UKIP/New Party (or indeed son of BNP is in danger of outflanking them on the right. Except that there is no danger of these fringe groups actually making it into the House of Commons. Farage is the most popular of them and has routinely failed to be elected. He is generally booed when he is recognised on the street, except, of course at the Tory Party conference., where he is hailed by the Gammon as "the coming man". The "far right" exists of course, but is little more than a chimera which the Tories use to justify their own far right instincts. The Tories have become the far right.
The problem now is that the Tories have alienated their moderate supporters: the active citizens that staff the CAB, run the town twinning groups, are active in the "big society". The moderate voters who aspire to decency and honesty and are prepared to listen to the argument.These socially responsible ex-Conservatives regard the current Tories as the get rich quick spivs whose attitude to the free market is quite similar to the water companies: pour shit into every river in the country and "Its fine if you can get away with it".
So the well heeled, educated undogmatic conservatives are defecting en bloc to the Liberal Democrats, and the Lib Dems will gain far more seats from the Tories than the Right, who will most likely gain none at all. Well, except for the fact that Farage is lionized by the Tory party conference and a significant number of Tories are now at least as right wing as Nigel and his pals.
So the strategy of alienate your moderate BBC core vote in favour of KGB news is well entrenched, but ignores the fact that no one cares about a far right megaphone, and they do still care about the BBC.
We do not (yet) see a Conservative wipe out based on the opinion polls, but in the ground we see incredible anti Tory swings in local government and in by elections. The Lib Dems are weak in the opinion polls, but smashing it in local government polls. So, it is quite possible that the Tories have not yet seen the worst in the opinion polls. Going into a GE campaign as clear losers may tweak the sympathy for the underdog, but equally, it might not.
Maybe the country just wants them gone like a water company wants raw sewage gone...
Excellent post - worthy of a thread header. Very good summary of the ness the Tories are in.
The Supreme Court didn't actually say that migrants couldn't be processed abroad just that safeguards were needed to ensure they weren't deported to the country they fled from. Hence Sunak is trying to change the law and get a new Treaty to ensure that, clearly most 2019 voters on that Yougov poll want the policy amended not scrapped.
As for sacking Braverman being popular, it has seen the Tory voteshare fall to just 19% and 21% in the last 3 polls. Even the 28% of voters who want to withdraw from the ECHR is almost 10% higher than that.
I'm not sure your last paragraph is right. I'd politely suggest that the personnel changes in the reshuffle haven't made much difference, with the sacking of Braverman and the appointment of Cameron roughly cancelling one another out.
If there is a decline in Tory vote share, I'd suggest that what's happened over the last week is just further evidence of voters perceiving a deep malaise in the government to such an extent that they're increasingly concluding that they couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery. I suspect this general sentiment has much more influence than individual moves such as Braverman/Cameron.
If the match gets rained off, South Africa go through I think.
Based on seeding / run rate?
What does a South African rain dance look like?
(They could always come back tomorrow to finish the match, there’s nothing else going on)
I think under the rules they have the spare day so SA need it to keep raining for another 30 hours or so. Cricinfo think that is unlikely.
From Cricinfo: "At the moment, Friday looks the more problematic day, with Thursday, the scheduled day of the semi-final, having a prediction of around a 50% chance of seeing showers."
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
I notice that Bin Laden's Letter to America has gone viral on TikTok, and the Guardian have removed their copy of it.
It is quite funny sees all these yuff saying well its amazing, its absolutely right, well other than the anti-gay bit...the antisemitic stuff not so much.
Britain Elects @BritainElects Can someone direct us to @PeoplePolling 's data-tables, please. We haven't had sight of any for quite some time. Membership of the British Polling Council requires table publication of public polls. cc @GoodwinMJ
Just been for a swim in a green jungle river as a mighty storm broiled overheard. In the fading twilight tropical kingfishers flashed above me, absurdly garish, like miniature flying Elton Johns from the mid 70s
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Nigel Farage has been all over the news re IACGMOOH. (eta And there was some sort of march in London recently.) We know there are disaffected small-c conservative voters. Many DKs, some RefUKs. Come the election, RefUK probably won't stand in many seats and that alone will mean polls overstate their likely votes.
OK, that's a "Yes, I generally agree" from me. But I thought Mr Tice said he was determined to stand everywhere in GB, following the problems caused by them standing down in numerous seats last time. Also, I would have thought that the re-appointment of Lord Dave would be a red rag to the bullshitters.....
If the match gets rained off, South Africa go through I think.
Based on seeding / run rate?
What does a South African rain dance look like?
(They could always come back tomorrow to finish the match, there’s nothing else going on)
I think under the rules they have the spare day so SA need it to keep raining for another 30 hours or so. Cricinfo think that is unlikely.
From Cricinfo: "At the moment, Friday looks the more problematic day, with Thursday, the scheduled day of the semi-final, having a prediction of around a 50% chance of seeing showers."
Also from Cricinfo (and someone at the ground) ""Any chance this drizzle will stick around until say… tomorrow midnight?" There's a chance, Tobias. But I'd put it somewhere between slim and none".
Just been for a swim in a green jungle river as a mighty storm broiled overheard. In the fading twilight tropical kingfishers flashed above me, absurdly garish, like miniature flying Elton Johns from the mid 70s
I always thought that the Tories would get back up to 30% when the GE came. But not looking like it now. Although we need Rod Crosby swingback model to shed some light on it.
Braverman was their only hope of scraping back to 30%
With her gone, they’ve lost the right, and Lord Brexit Cameron of His Coutts Account is not gonna win back Remainer centrists
Labour's revolt against Starmer was rather larger than the impression given on the news. Unless I've got it wrong over a quarter of the party revolted. That does not bode well.
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Nigel Farage has been all over the news re IACGMOOH. (eta And there was some sort of march in London recently.) We know there are disaffected small-c conservative voters. Many DKs, some RefUKs. Come the election, RefUK probably won't stand in many seats and that alone will mean polls overstate their likely votes.
Yes, they are all air war and no ground war. I see no gains coming for them.
But they are likely to cost the Tories a number of seats…
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
A few more of these and the Tories will be averaging 20%. Remember when PB Tories were worried they might slip below 30%?
I particularly enjoyed their widespread logic around that time that after a month where they improved by 1%, that due to mid term effects this would inevitably be repeated for each subsequent month until the election, and therefore to expect it to be neck and neck by mid 2024.
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Nigel Farage has been all over the news re IACGMOOH. (eta And there was some sort of march in London recently.) We know there are disaffected small-c conservative voters. Many DKs, some RefUKs. Come the election, RefUK probably won't stand in many seats and that alone will mean polls overstate their likely votes.
OK, that's a "Yes, I generally agree" from me. But I thought Mr Tice said he was determined to stand everywhere in GB, following the problems caused by them standing down in numerous seats last time. Also, I would have thought that the re-appointment of Lord Dave would be a red rag to the bullshitters.....
Party leaders have to say they will stand everywhere, it is in the job description. It is unlikely they will have either enough candidates or the money to pay for lost deposits.
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Nigel Farage has been all over the news re IACGMOOH. (eta And there was some sort of march in London recently.) We know there are disaffected small-c conservative voters. Many DKs, some RefUKs. Come the election, RefUK probably won't stand in many seats and that alone will mean polls overstate their likely votes.
OK, that's a "Yes, I generally agree" from me. But I thought Mr Tice said he was determined to stand everywhere in GB, following the problems caused by them standing down in numerous seats last time. Also, I would have thought that the re-appointment of Lord Dave would be a red rag to the bullshitters.....
Party leaders have to say they will stand everywhere, it is in the job description. It is unlikely they will have either enough candidates or the money to pay for lost deposits.
Don’t their candidates have to pay their own deposits
Labour's revolt against Starmer was rather larger than the impression given on the news. Unless I've got it wrong over a quarter of the party revolted. That does not bode well.
Theyre all red Tories Roger thats what youre voting for.
Biden calls Xi dictator after carefully planned summit
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=363324 .."Look, he is. He's a dictator in the sense that he's a guy who runs a country that is a communist country that's based on a form of government totally different than ours," Biden said.
In response, China's foreign ministry said it "strongly opposes" the remarks, without mentioning Biden by name.
"This statement is extremely wrong and irresponsible political manipulation," foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters on Thursday at a routine briefing.
"It should be pointed out that there will always be some people with ulterior motives who attempt to incite and damage U.S.-China relations, they are doomed to fail."
Mao refused to specify the identity of "some people" in answer to a follow-up question...
Are they saying they're not communist - of that Xi isn't in charge ?
"Some people" is a splendidly Trumpian formulation.
Am I the only person who wishes we could have Tony Blair back as prime minister?
Honestly? No. He was a good PM for the specific time (post-Thatcherism, Cold War dividend, prosperous, social changes). But that's not the world we live in now and his techniques won't work. We don't have the money we had, we have lots of older people, and we have a shedload of debt. You either need to go full left-wing and higher taxes (my preferred option) or you import tens of millions of people to rebalance the population (the Govt's preferred option - its actual migration policy is wildly against the stated one) or something else. I won't enjoy the 2020s which seems to be getting worse with every year.
Am I the only person who wishes we could have Tony Blair back as prime minister?
Tony too, possibly.
I would like to see him involved but not PM. Glad to see Cameron involved too, same with Major, Brown, May, hell maybe even Truss too, as long as she is not in charge of anything important.
Since the reshuffle the Tory polling has plummeted to 21, 19 and 19 - absolute extinction level. Beyond extinction level
When quite a few of you were hailing it as a Sunak master stroke that would win back the Blue Wall, appeal to Remainers, entice the people appalled by Braverman, soothe people who worry too much, provide much needed gravitas, assure everyone “the adults are in charge now”
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Nah. It's people who've never heard of them but think "reform" sounds nice, in a pox-on-all-their-houses way.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
To keep it simple for you: Tory numbers are sliding no matter what they do. Sack Baverman, keep Braverman, bring back Dave, don't bring Dave back - it all makes f*ck-all difference.
It's the inescapable long-term trend; Tories heading for 15%.
Labour's revolt against Starmer was rat her larger than the impression given on the news. Unless I've got it wrong over a quarter of the party revolted. That does not bode well.
Theyre all red Tories Roger thats what youre voting for.
I've given up on them. I want to join the Jess Phillips Party or better still the Sanna Marin Party
As he reflects on the past week Rishi will think it could have been worse:
The repellent Suella out of his hair with only a fleeting day of hysteria from the right-wing media. Rwanda - messy but has been given time to deal with it. Inflation down. Labour in a right old state over Gaza and the spectre of Corbyn flickers through voters' minds. Dave back to soothe shire hearts.
For sure, Rishi's still in a massive fix, but what could have been an appalling week for him is probably just about neutral.
As he reflects on the past week Rishi will think it could have been worse:
The repellent Suella out of his hair with only a fleeting day of hysteria from the right-wing media. Rwanda - messy but has been given time to deal with it. Inflation down. Labour in a right old state over Gaza and the spectre of Corbyn flickers through voters' minds. Dave back to soothe shire hearts.
For sure, Rishi's still in a massive fix, but what could have been an appalling week for him is probably just about neutral.
@estwebber Tory strategist tells @danbloom1 “It’s now clear flights won’t happen, so there is no plan for small boats. Which means they’re in serious trouble for the election.”
Since the reshuffle the Tory polling has plummeted to 21, 19 and 19 - absolute extinction level. Beyond extinction level
When quite a few of you were hailing it as a Sunak master stroke that would win back the Blue Wall, appeal to Remainers, entice the people appalled by Braverman, soothe people who worry too much, provide much needed gravitas, assure everyone “the adults are in charge now”
I mean, fuck me. Hahahahahah
The problem they have is inconsistency. They’ve tried to be too many things to too many people for too long, and not satisfying anyone. I don’t think they have time to establish a consistent approach before the next GE; because that needs time to bed in, and they don’t have time.
They have monumentally, stupidly, f*cked things up for themselves over the past 4 years. It is amazing just how spectacularly a government with a majority of 80 has imploded.
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Nah. It's people who've never heard of them but think "reform" sounds nice, in a pox-on-all-their-houses way.
I reckon that's right. If somebody could do a poll asking who the leader of Reform was, I reckon the % naming Tice would be in the low single figures.
And if the same poll asked respondents to name any other politician in Reform than Tice, I reckon the % would be 0.
Indeed, I'd challenge the cognoscenti of PB to name anybody in Reform other than Tice.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
To keep it simple for you: Tory numbers are sliding no matter what they do. Sack Baverman, keep Braverman, bring back Dave, don't bring Dave back - it all makes f*ck-all difference.
It's the inescapable long-term trend; Tories heading for 15%.
In every poll the Tories are significantly down. In every poll RefUK are up. So it’s not “a wash”. It’s not “‘meh this would have happened anyway” it’s not “same old same old”
It’s a precise downwards movement caused specifically by sacking Braverman with an added dash of appointing Cameron
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
I think @Nigelb is right. It is cause and effect and there are too many variables to know what is what. The idea that you can deduce this is because of Cameron and none of the other crap that is going on in the Tory party at present is daft.
This reminds me of hyufd who is convinced that if Boris was still PM the Tories would be doing a lot better because they were when he was still PM. It is impossible to deduce that and it also seems exceedingly improbable.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Labour's revolt against Starmer was rat her larger than the impression given on the news. Unless I've got it wrong over a quarter of the party revolted. That does not bode well.
Theyre all red Tories Roger thats what youre voting for.
I've given up on them. I want to join the Jess Phillips Party or better still the Sanna Marin Party
Sanna Marin works for Blair these days, you might as well pick a country in the Middle East at random and ask to invade it.
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Nah. It's people who've never heard of them but think "reform" sounds nice, in a pox-on-all-their-houses way.
I reckon that's right. If somebody could do a poll asking who the leader of Reform was, I reckon the % naming Tice would be in the low single figures.
And if the same poll asked respondents to name any other politician in Reform than Tice, I reckon the % would be 0.
Indeed, I'd challenge the cognoscenti of PB to name anybody in Reform other than Tice.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
To keep it simple for you: Tory numbers are sliding no matter what they do. Sack Baverman, keep Braverman, bring back Dave, don't bring Dave back - it all makes f*ck-all difference.
It's the inescapable long-term trend; Tories heading for 15%.
In every poll the Tories are significantly down. In every poll RefUK are up. So it’s not “a wash”. It’s not “‘meh this would have happened anyway” it’s not “same old same old”
It’s a precise downwards movement caused specifically by sacking Braverman with an added dash of appointing Cameron
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Nah. It's people who've never heard of them but think "reform" sounds nice, in a pox-on-all-their-houses way.
I reckon that's right. If somebody could do a poll asking who the leader of Reform was, I reckon the % naming Tice would be in the low single figures.
And if the same poll asked respondents to name any other politician in Reform than Tice, I reckon the % would be 0.
Indeed, I'd challenge the cognoscenti of PB to name anybody in Reform other than Tice.
That strange journalist woman who claimed Dave indulged in necrozoophilia?
Labour's revolt against Starmer was rat her larger than the impression given on the news. Unless I've got it wrong over a quarter of the party revolted. That does not bode well.
Theyre all red Tories Roger thats what youre voting for.
I've given up on them. I want to join the Jess Phillips Party or better still the Sanna Marin Party
The Jess Phillips "Virtue signaling is more important than doing anything useful" Party.
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
You make a good point, although I am not sure what the left could have done about it.
This is one of the issues with our electoral system. Not so much now, but in the past a candidate invariably needed to be white, male, married with 2 children and a protestant.
OK that is the past and generally (although you raise an important issue) none of that applies anymore, but in a multi ward system it is beneficial to have a range of candidates.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Address your tirade to someone else. The only thing I welcomed (and still do) was the departure of the ludicrous Braverman.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
Tbf to the proper PB Conservatives they are clutching at any straw going. I was not on PB in 2009/10 (was it a thing then?) but had I been I'd have been looking for any sign Labour could prevent a Tory landslide at the coming GE (which tbf they did).
(Edit: Tbf, I am getting a bit carried away with my tbfs there.)
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
I think @Nigelb is right. It is cause and effect and there are too many variables to know what is what. The idea that you can deduce this is because of Cameron and none of the other crap that is going on in the Tory party at present is daft.
This reminds me of hyufd who is convinced that if Boris was still PM the Tories would be doing a lot better because they were when he was still PM. It is impossible to deduce that and it also seems exceedingly improbable.
A counter factual where Boris was still the leader and the party were broadly united around him and excused his many transgressions would indeed be doing much better than currently. But the party couldn't be united around him as:
1. Some MPs still have standards 2. He promised each faction things incompatible with other promises to opposing factions 3. He is a narcissist who destroys all his relationships sooner or later so over time loses support and creates enemies.
Towards the end he was running out of MPs to appoint to ministerial jobs (should have just got outsider lackeys in and moved them straight to the Lords I suppose), and realistically didn't have a majority in the Commons despite the big nominal majority.
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
Very soon? That's an 8 year old poll just saying.
I was trying to look for more recent polling and can't find any - I imagine it is still higher than typical? But the other thing is those anti-LGBT Muslims are likely quite right wing and just don't vote Tory out of other class / islamophobia reasons. Like how quite a lot of right wing African Americans are still Democrats despite the fact they probably agree more with some GOP policies (although this is changing with younger African Americans, slightly).
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
Well it's obvious what's happening. You've said it yourself a few times. Only stupid people can see how clever you are and there aren't enough of them on here.
As he reflects on the past week Rishi will think it could have been worse:
The repellent Suella out of his hair with only a fleeting day of hysteria from the right-wing media. Rwanda - messy but has been given time to deal with it. Inflation down. Labour in a right old state over Gaza and the spectre of Corbyn flickers through voters' minds. Dave back to soothe shire hearts.
For sure, Rishi's still in a massive fix, but what could have been an appalling week for him is probably just about neutral.
@estwebber Tory strategist tells @danbloom1 “It’s now clear flights won’t happen, so there is no plan for small boats. Which means they’re in serious trouble for the election.”
Lets look at the alternative - the SC said yes. We would have had a brief press frenzy as the first flight left. But then all of the upstream issues - boats arriving, lack of places to intern them, lack of BF staff or courts capacity etc etc - would have continued. The places to intern them issue is massive. Can't keep using hotels (too expensive), can't use barges (not enough, too expensive, massive protests), can't use army bases (not enough, massive protests).
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
Tbf to the proper PB Conservatives they are clutching at any straw going. I was not on PB in 2009/10 (was it a thing then?) but had I been I'd have been looking for any sign Labour could prevent a Tory landslide at the coming GE (which tbf they did).
(Edit: Tbf, I am getting a bit carried away with my tbfs there.)
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Nah. It's people who've never heard of them but think "reform" sounds nice, in a pox-on-all-their-houses way.
I reckon that's right. If somebody could do a poll asking who the leader of Reform was, I reckon the % naming Tice would be in the low single figures.
And if the same poll asked respondents to name any other politician in Reform than Tice, I reckon the % would be 0.
Indeed, I'd challenge the cognoscenti of PB to name anybody in Reform other than Tice.
That strange journalist woman who claimed Dave indulged in necrozoophilia?
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Nah. It's people who've never heard of them but think "reform" sounds nice, in a pox-on-all-their-houses way.
I reckon that's right. If somebody could do a poll asking who the leader of Reform was, I reckon the % naming Tice would be in the low single figures.
And if the same poll asked respondents to name any other politician in Reform than Tice, I reckon the % would be 0.
Indeed, I'd challenge the cognoscenti of PB to name anybody in Reform other than Tice.
That strange journalist woman who claimed Dave indulged in necrozoophilia?
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
Tbf to the proper PB Conservatives they are clutching at any straw going. I was not on PB in 2009/10 (was it a thing then?) but had I been I'd have been looking for any sign Labour could prevent a Tory landslide at the coming GE (which tbf they did).
(Edit: Tbf, I am getting a bit carried away with my tbfs there.)
PB was definitely a thing in 2009. A fair number of people who posted in those days are still on the board,
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
Tbf to the proper PB Conservatives they are clutching at any straw going. I was not on PB in 2009/10 (was it a thing then?) but had I been I'd have been looking for any sign Labour could prevent a Tory landslide at the coming GE (which tbf they did).
(Edit: Tbf, I am getting a bit carried away with my tbfs there.)
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
I think @Nigelb is right. It is cause and effect and there are too many variables to know what is what. The idea that you can deduce this is because of Cameron and none of the other crap that is going on in the Tory party at present is daft.
This reminds me of hyufd who is convinced that if Boris was still PM the Tories would be doing a lot better because they were when he was still PM. It is impossible to deduce that and it also seems exceedingly improbable.
A counter factual where Boris was still the leader and the party were broadly united around him and excused his many transgressions would indeed be doing much better than currently. But the party couldn't be united around him as:
1. Some MPs still have standards 2. He promised each faction things incompatible with other promises to opposing factions 3. He is a narcissist who destroys all his relationships sooner or later so over time loses support and creates enemies.
Towards the end he was running out of MPs to appoint to ministerial jobs (should have just got outsider lackeys in and moved them straight to the Lords I suppose), and realistically didn't have a majority in the Commons despite the big nominal majority.
Agree. The one thing the public like least is a government in disarray. Those not politically motivated probably don't care if it is Labour or Conservative government as long as they are not fighting like rats in a sack.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
The times to see if this was a good move or not are 1) in six months time pre election and 2) in two years time post election. For 1 the challenge is can the party pretend to be united enough to avoid electoral disaster and for 2 it is can the realists beat the fantasists for the future of the Tory party.
I am quite skeptical on both challenges, but would judge the success or failure of Camerons appointment on those rather than immediate polling.
Labour's revolt against Starmer was rat her larger than the impression given on the news. Unless I've got it wrong over a quarter of the party revolted. That does not bode well.
Theyre all red Tories Roger thats what youre voting for.
I've given up on them. I want to join the Jess Phillips Party or better still the Sanna Marin Party
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
Very soon? That's an 8 year old poll just saying.
I was trying to look for more recent polling and can't find any - I imagine it is still higher than typical? But the other thing is those anti-LGBT Muslims are likely quite right wing and just don't vote Tory out of other class / islamophobia reasons. Like how quite a lot of right wing African Americans are still Democrats despite the fact they probably agree more with some GOP policies (although this is changing with younger African Americans, slightly).
"...those anti-LGBT Muslims are likely quite right wing "
That's quite a big assumption to make. The 'traditional' concepts of left and right can be muddled at the best of times (for instance, am I left or right?), ad might break down even further amongst various groups.
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
The country needs a return to sane politics and the ousting of wazzockry. Son that front the appointment of Lord Pigfucker was a good step. I never suggested that it would be electorally good for the Tories.
Here is reality. What is left of the Tory party is *mental*. What they want is not what a large majority of voters wants. Sunak can stick Dave into the Lords but still has to restrain Fuck Off and Loathsome and the rest of the mentalists. So as welcome as one more sane head is, its still a lunatic asylum.
Here is the joy. Sunak is politically attached on each limb by a rope to various things. A boulder. Wild horses with rabies. Mad Dogs. And rats in a sack. He will be politically torn apart trying to restrain them.
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
Very soon? That's an 8 year old poll just saying.
I was trying to look for more recent polling and can't find any - I imagine it is still higher than typical? But the other thing is those anti-LGBT Muslims are likely quite right wing and just don't vote Tory out of other class / islamophobia reasons. Like how quite a lot of right wing African Americans are still Democrats despite the fact they probably agree more with some GOP policies (although this is changing with younger African Americans, slightly).
I am sure that's true. Education, assimilation, those are the only ways to address this. My personal experience having worked in Halifax for a time is that the first generation immigrants tend to be very socially conservative, second generation less so, and third and beyond not much different to the general population.
Maybe we'll see a flip though with inner city areas voting Tory and leafy suburbia voting Labour?
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
The country needs a return to sane politics and the ousting of wazzockry. Son that front the appointment of Lord Pigfucker was a good step. I never suggested that it would be electorally good for the Tories.
Here is reality. What is left of the Tory party is *mental*. What they want is not what a large majority of voters wants. Sunak can stick Dave into the Lords but still has to restrain Fuck Off and Loathsome and the rest of the mentalists. So as welcome as one more sane head is, its still a lunatic asylum.
Here is the joy. Sunak is politically attached on each limb by a rope to various things. A boulder. Wild horses with rabies. Mad Dogs. And rats in a sack. He will be politically torn apart trying to restrain them.
"The country needs a return to sane politics and the ousting of wazzockry. So on that front the appointment of Lord Pigfucker was a good step."
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Nigel Farage has been all over the news re IACGMOOH. (eta And there was some sort of march in London recently.) We know there are disaffected small-c conservative voters. Many DKs, some RefUKs. Come the election, RefUK probably won't stand in many seats and that alone will mean polls overstate their likely votes.
OK, that's a "Yes, I generally agree" from me. But I thought Mr Tice said he was determined to stand everywhere in GB, following the problems caused by them standing down in numerous seats last time. Also, I would have thought that the re-appointment of Lord Dave would be a red rag to the bullshitters.....
Party leaders have to say they will stand everywhere, it is in the job description. It is unlikely they will have either enough candidates or the money to pay for lost deposits.
Don’t their candidates have to pay their own deposits
It always surprises me more people don't stand for Parliament in that the value of the free delivery of an election address to every household in the constituency is easily worth the £500 lost deposit (you need to pay printing of course but simply for physical delivery it is extremely cheap).
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Nah. It's people who've never heard of them but think "reform" sounds nice, in a pox-on-all-their-houses way.
I reckon that's right. If somebody could do a poll asking who the leader of Reform was, I reckon the % naming Tice would be in the low single figures.
And if the same poll asked respondents to name any other politician in Reform than Tice, I reckon the % would be 0.
Indeed, I'd challenge the cognoscenti of PB to name anybody in Reform other than Tice.
Tice, who reminds me of an English Patrick Bateman in personal style, is fucking useless at getting media attention. Nobody gives a fuck about his boring drivel, even when he finally does manage to say something, so the whole Refuk project is going nowhere.
Their citadel of power in Hartlepool is top kek though. That bald bloke is their top economic advisor nipping out to get his vape refilled.
This ring was discovered on a woman buried around 1,200 years ago in Birka, an ancient Viking city located 30 km (19 miles) west of contemporary Stockholm, Sweden. What sets this ring apart is the inscription "for Allah" in Kufic Arabic, commonly used between the 8th and 10th centuries. It provides evidence of direct contact between Vikings and the Abbasid Caliphate, the third caliphate succeeding the Islamic prophet Muhammad.
Delving into the topic, I explored various Arab travelers and their extensive premodern explorations. The most prolific pre-modern explorer was Ibn Battuta, a Muslim Moroccan who is believed to have traversed 117,000 km (72,000 miles)... https://twitter.com/historyinmemes/status/1724917855127216634
The Ibn Battuta mentioned, though separated by culture, religion, and a millennium of history, is notably Leon adjacent. .."I set out alone, having neither fellow-traveler in whose companionship I might find cheer, nor caravan whose part I might join, but swayed by an overmastering impulse within me and a desire long-cherished in my bosom to visit these illustrious sanctuaries. So I braced my resolution to quit my dear ones, female and male, and forsook my home as birds forsake their nests...
Wikipedia is yet more uncanny.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Battuta ...Ibn Battuta's claim that a Maghrebian called "Abu'l Barakat the Berber" converted the Maldives to Islam is contradicted by an entirely different story which says that the Maldives were converted to Islam after miracles were performed by a Tabrizi named Maulana Shaikh Yusuf Shams-ud-din according to the Tarikh, the official history of the Maldives.
Some scholars have also questioned whether he really visited China...
...Concubines were used by Ibn Battuta such as in Delhi. He wedded several women, divorced at least some of them, and in Damascus, Malabar, Delhi, Bukhara, and the Maldives had children by them or by concubines.[172] Ibn Battuta insulted Greeks as "enemies of Allah", drunkards and "swine eaters", while at the same time in Ephesus he purchased and used a Greek girl who was one of his many slave girls in his "harem" through Byzantium, Khorasan, Africa, and Palestine.[173] It was two decades before he again returned to find out what happened to one of his wives and child in Damascus...
There's the bones of an article, maybe even a book in this for our resident knapper ?
I can remember Michael Wood’s programme about Eric Bloodaxe, which went into the links between vikings, and the various Islamic States at the time. The vikings sold them slaves on a massive scale, and got tons of silver in return.
As Dominic Sandbrook says, it’s striking how popular vikings are, when they were murderers, rapists, and slavers on a huge scale (there’s even a slave trading game you can play, at a Danish museum on Vikings.)
There are tales of Celtic girls being taken as slaves to Iceland in Norse mythology. One or two of them, or their children, rose to quite high rank. Wasn’t there a big Viking slave market in Dublin?
Studies of male and female line DNA bear that out. Dublin was a huge slave market in the 10th century.
Yes. I think genetically Icelandics are a pure 50/50 hybrid of Celtic/Nordic genes
Also very beautiful
Changing the topic, what was the 'huge news' item you mentioned back in the summer that you couldn't share with us at the time but was going to blow our minds? Did it prove false, pass by unnoticed, or are we still waiting?
(Not trying to have a dig - genuinely curious.)
It is very much ongoing. Developments this week. I wish I could tell you but I can’t - sworn to secrecy for various reasons
If anything eventuates - and we just don’t know - expect revelations in the coming year
I know that’s not satisfactory but you asked and that’s the best I can do
Even if nothing eventuates it is an extraordinary story in itself
Still waiting for the big UAP reveal that you kept touting.
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
You make a good point, although I am not sure what the left could have done about it.
This is one of the issues with our electoral system. Not so much now, but in the past a candidate invariably needed to be white, male, married with 2 children and a protestant.
OK that is the past and generally (although you raise an important issue) none of that applies anymore, but in a multi ward system it is beneficial to have a range of candidates.
We had some interesting results in local wards last year that were electing two councillors.
In one, regardless of party, the white candidate outpolled the non-white candidate.
In the other, regardless of party, the Moslem candidate outpolled the white candidate.
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
You make a good point, although I am not sure what the left could have done about it.
This is one of the issues with our electoral system. Not so much now, but in the past a candidate invariably needed to be white, male, married with 2 children and a protestant.
OK that is the past and generally (although you raise an important issue) none of that applies anymore, but in a multi ward system it is beneficial to have a range of candidates.
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
You make a good point, although I am not sure what the left could have done about it.
This is one of the issues with our electoral system. Not so much now, but in the past a candidate invariably needed to be white, male, married with 2 children and a protestant.
OK that is the past and generally (although you raise an important issue) none of that applies anymore, but in a multi ward system it is beneficial to have a range of candidates.
This is why it would be good if there was a specific Muslim party - as I say upthread
The social beliefs of most Muslims are far too conservative to sit comfortably in the Labour Party. And this is now threatening core beliefs of the Labour Party (gay rights etc)
Yes this would make it harder for Labour to win some constituencies but that’s better than Labour abandoning central beliefs so they can cling on to Bradford North etc
So YouGov has the Cons on 21%. In the last three polls that’s 19%, 19%, 21%.
The People Polling one for GB News was clearly neither an outlier nor a rogue.
A question will be whether Labour also take a sustained dent after yesterday or if that proves more ephemeral than the recent tory civil war. My guess is that it will be, based mainly on nous but it could also be bias on my part.
ReformUK in double digits in all three polls. Will that hold?
People seem not to be positively voting for Labour as much as voting Labour against the Tories.
I have seem some gnarly map projections based on these polls - one showing only 6 Tory seats (all in Scotland) and the LDs as the Official Opposition.
They'll be celebrating in the streets of North Aberdeen come election night.
Lets hope for some LibDem gains north of Aberdeen...
I'm sure it must have been discussed here in the past, in which case I have missed it, but please can someone explain the consistently high ReFUK figures in recent polls? They've got no press coverage, no campaigning that I have seen - are those numbers genuine? Or are the pollsters sampling only from retired men of a certain age who sit around all day watching GB News?
Ite the right-whinge protest vote. And they are on TV - the Nigel has just gone into the jungle.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
Nah. It's people who've never heard of them but think "reform" sounds nice, in a pox-on-all-their-houses way.
I reckon that's right. If somebody could do a poll asking who the leader of Reform was, I reckon the % naming Tice would be in the low single figures.
And if the same poll asked respondents to name any other politician in Reform than Tice, I reckon the % would be 0.
Indeed, I'd challenge the cognoscenti of PB to name anybody in Reform other than Tice.
Tice, who reminds me of an English Patrick Bateman in personal style, is fucking useless at getting media attention. Nobody gives a fuck about his boring drivel, even when he finally does manage to say something, so the whole Refuk project is going nowhere.
Their citadel of power in Hartlepool is top kek though. That bald bloke is their top economic advisor nipping out to get his vape refilled.
They need to rip that woke ramp out sharpish. Bloody diversity!
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
The country needs a return to sane politics and the ousting of wazzockry. Son that front the appointment of Lord Pigfucker was a good step. I never suggested that it would be electorally good for the Tories.
Here is reality. What is left of the Tory party is *mental*. What they want is not what a large majority of voters wants. Sunak can stick Dave into the Lords but still has to restrain Fuck Off and Loathsome and the rest of the mentalists. So as welcome as one more sane head is, its still a lunatic asylum.
Here is the joy. Sunak is politically attached on each limb by a rope to various things. A boulder. Wild horses with rabies. Mad Dogs. And rats in a sack. He will be politically torn apart trying to restrain them.
Roll back a decade and the idea that I would know who Lord Pigfucker, Fuck Off and Loathsome were in the governing party would have seemed more than a little fanciful. I wonder what 2033 has in store......
Another brilliant result for the “World’s Greatest Reshuffle”
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
Not really. The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
So I was completely right, but in a weirdly wrong way that only PB centrists can understand and can never be explained
Got it
No. The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle. However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference. No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Why can you guys never just say Yeah, got that wrong
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
Not me, Guv (this time).
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Yes. I’m not accusing you
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
Tbf to the proper PB Conservatives they are clutching at any straw going. I was not on PB in 2009/10 (was it a thing then?) but had I been I'd have been looking for any sign Labour could prevent a Tory landslide at the coming GE (which tbf they did).
(Edit: Tbf, I am getting a bit carried away with my tbfs there.)
PB goes back to about 2004.
(I was there! Oh, the good old days.....)
Ditto (well thereabouts). Someone put up a screenshot from 2005 awhile ago and there was SeanT and Nick Palmer as well.
I remember a post where someone responded to you and transposed a couple of letters accidentally and started the post off as AugustusCrap. I commented that was a bit harsh to which I got a smiley face from JackW. I was pleased as punch. Little things eh.
Labour's revolt against Starmer was rat her larger than the impression given on the news. Unless I've got it wrong over a quarter of the party revolted. That does not bode well.
Theyre all red Tories Roger thats what youre voting for.
I've given up on them. I want to join the Jess Phillips Party or better still the Sanna Marin Party
Comments
Then when you suggest that fighting woke wars on the same side as Trump or GB news might not be that popular, they then turn around and say that Reform/UKIP/New Party (or indeed son of BNP is in danger of outflanking them on the right. Except that there is no danger of these fringe groups actually making it into the House of Commons. Farage is the most popular of them and has routinely failed to be elected. He is generally booed when he is recognised on the street, except, of course at the Tory Party conference., where he is hailed by the Gammon as "the coming man". The "far right" exists of course, but is little more than a chimera which the Tories use to justify their own far right instincts. The Tories have become the far right.
The problem now is that the Tories have alienated their moderate supporters: the active citizens that staff the CAB, run the town twinning groups, are active in the "big society". The moderate voters who aspire to decency and honesty and are prepared to listen to the argument.These socially responsible ex-Conservatives regard the current Tories as the get rich quick spivs whose attitude to the free market is quite similar to the water companies: pour shit into every river in the country and "Its fine if you can get away with it".
So the well heeled, educated undogmatic conservatives are defecting en bloc to the Liberal Democrats, and the Lib Dems will gain far more seats from the Tories than the Right, who will most likely gain none at all. Well, except for the fact that Farage is lionized by the Tory party conference and a significant number of Tories are now at least as right wing as Nigel and his pals.
So the strategy of alienate your moderate BBC core vote in favour of KGB news is well entrenched, but ignores the fact that no one cares about a far right megaphone, and they do still care about the BBC.
We do not (yet) see a Conservative wipe out based on the opinion polls, but in the ground we see incredible anti Tory swings in local government and in by elections. The Lib Dems are weak in the opinion polls, but smashing it in local government polls. So, it is quite possible that the Tories have not yet seen the worst in the opinion polls. Going into a GE campaign as clear losers may tweak the sympathy for the underdog, but equally, it might not.
Maybe the country just wants them gone like a water company wants raw sewage gone...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 44% (-3)
CON: 21% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-)
REF: 10% (+2)
GRN: 8% (+1)
via
@YouGov
There's another article, which I can't find now, which points out that most refuk voters are pro-remain - a good indicator something's up.
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Can someone direct us to
@PeoplePolling
's data-tables, please. We haven't had sight of any for quite some time. Membership of the British Polling Council requires table publication of public polls. cc
@GoodwinMJ
https://britishpollingcouncil.org/objects-and-rules/
https://x.com/madz_grant/status/1725083671437185265?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Well done, the British left. You utter utter morons
If there is a decline in Tory vote share, I'd suggest that what's happened over the last week is just further evidence of voters perceiving a deep malaise in the government to such an extent that they're increasingly concluding that they couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery. I suspect this general sentiment has much more influence than individual moves such as Braverman/Cameron.
It is quite funny sees all these yuff saying well its amazing, its absolutely right, well other than the anti-gay bit...the antisemitic stuff not so much.
http://www.matthewjgoodwin.org/poll-archive.html
Can PB now admit I was right? It was a catastrophic mistake in every way
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/20/by-election-results-conservatives-reform-richard-tice/
Hope he’s got a good team of vetters, and can weed out any headline-making former-BNP types before nominations close.
With her gone, they’ve lost the right, and Lord Brexit Cameron of His Coutts Account is not gonna win back Remainer centrists
The counterfactuals would probably be equally dire, just in a different way.
The Tories' problems are rather more fundamental than the choice of a Foreign Secretary.
Got it
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=363324
.."Look, he is. He's a dictator in the sense that he's a guy who runs a country that is a communist country that's based on a form of government totally different than ours," Biden said.
In response, China's foreign ministry said it "strongly opposes" the remarks, without mentioning Biden by name.
"This statement is extremely wrong and irresponsible political manipulation," foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters on Thursday at a routine briefing.
"It should be pointed out that there will always be some people with ulterior motives who attempt to incite and damage U.S.-China relations, they are doomed to fail."
Mao refused to specify the identity of "some people" in answer to a follow-up question...
Are they saying they're not communist - of that Xi isn't in charge ?
"Some people" is a splendidly Trumpian formulation.
When quite a few of you were hailing it as a Sunak master stroke that would win back the Blue Wall, appeal to Remainers, entice the people appalled by Braverman, soothe people who worry too much, provide much needed gravitas, assure everyone “the adults are in charge now”
I mean, fuck me. Hahahahahah
Winning here!
The disaster was what preceded the reshuffle.
However Sunak shuffled the deckchairs it was going to be a mess.
I don't share TSE's enthusiasm for Cameron, but I don't think that coup de theatre made a huge difference.
No doubt you think if he'd left Cleverly where he was, and installed scofflaw Lee as Home Secretary they'd be riding high in the polls ?
You should cut down on the ants.
Their campaigning is done for them by the Tories. Nobody votes FUKUK for positive reasons or thinking they will even win a seat. Its a performative vote for racists, bigots and xenophobes.
When I’m clearly wrong I admit it. Liz Truss definitely didn’t “surprise on the upside”
It helps debate if you simply fess up to an error of judgment. We all do it
It's the inescapable long-term trend; Tories heading for 15%.
The repellent Suella out of his hair with only a fleeting day of hysteria from the right-wing media.
Rwanda - messy but has been given time to deal with it.
Inflation down.
Labour in a right old state over Gaza and the spectre of Corbyn flickers through voters' minds.
Dave back to soothe shire hearts.
For sure, Rishi's still in a massive fix, but what could have been an appalling week for him is probably just about neutral.
Tory strategist tells @danbloom1 “It’s now clear flights won’t happen, so there is no plan for small boats. Which means they’re in serious trouble for the election.”
They have monumentally, stupidly, f*cked things up for themselves over the past 4 years. It is amazing just how spectacularly a government with a majority of 80 has imploded.
And if the same poll asked respondents to name any other politician in Reform than Tice, I reckon the % would be 0.
Indeed, I'd challenge the cognoscenti of PB to name anybody in Reform other than Tice.
It’s a precise downwards movement caused specifically by sacking Braverman with an added dash of appointing Cameron
This reminds me of hyufd who is convinced that if Boris was still PM the Tories would be doing a lot better because they were when he was still PM. It is impossible to deduce that and it also seems exceedingly improbable.
Whilst I was glad to see the back of Braverman, my first comment on Cameron (responding to TSE "Fucking Yes!!!") was "Yes? Yesterday's man more like."
Indeed the PB lefties generally called this right. Yourself, @Heathener and others. I’ve reread the comments
You all said “not going to do anything good, probably bad, Cameron is hated”. And you were quite right
It’s the pb centrists and cameroons who got it calamitously wrong
This is one of the issues with our electoral system. Not so much now, but in the past a candidate invariably needed to be white, male, married with 2 children and a protestant.
OK that is the past and generally (although you raise an important issue) none of that applies anymore, but in a multi ward system it is beneficial to have a range of candidates.
The only thing I welcomed (and still do) was the departure of the ludicrous Braverman.
(Edit: Tbf, I am getting a bit carried away with my tbfs there.)
1. Some MPs still have standards
2. He promised each faction things incompatible with other promises to opposing factions
3. He is a narcissist who destroys all his relationships sooner or later so over time loses support and creates enemies.
Towards the end he was running out of MPs to appoint to ministerial jobs (should have just got outsider lackeys in and moved them straight to the Lords I suppose), and realistically didn't have a majority in the Commons despite the big nominal majority.
Either way they are stuffed.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isabel_Oakeshott
I am quite skeptical on both challenges, but would judge the success or failure of Camerons appointment on those rather than immediate polling.
That's quite a big assumption to make. The 'traditional' concepts of left and right can be muddled at the best of times (for instance, am I left or right?), ad might break down even further amongst various groups.
Here is reality. What is left of the Tory party is *mental*. What they want is not what a large majority of voters wants. Sunak can stick Dave into the Lords but still has to restrain Fuck Off and Loathsome and the rest of the mentalists. So as welcome as one more sane head is, its still a lunatic asylum.
Here is the joy. Sunak is politically attached on each limb by a rope to various things. A boulder. Wild horses with rabies. Mad Dogs. And rats in a sack. He will be politically torn apart trying to restrain them.
Maybe we'll see a flip though with inner city areas voting Tory and leafy suburbia voting Labour?
Marvellous lack of self-awareness there ;-)
Their citadel of power in Hartlepool is top kek though. That bald bloke is their top economic advisor nipping out to get his vape refilled.
In one, regardless of party, the white candidate outpolled the non-white candidate.
In the other, regardless of party, the Moslem candidate outpolled the white candidate.
The social beliefs of most Muslims are far too conservative to sit comfortably in the Labour Party. And this is now threatening core beliefs of the Labour Party (gay rights etc)
Yes this would make it harder for Labour to win some constituencies but that’s better than Labour abandoning central beliefs so they can cling on to Bradford North etc
I remember a post where someone responded to you and transposed a couple of letters accidentally and started the post off as AugustusCrap. I commented that was a bit harsh to which I got a smiley face from JackW. I was pleased as punch. Little things eh.