Watching BBC News at 10, they covered this story then cut to a Muslim who previously voted Labour but now is looking to vote for ‘an independent’ who is more representative of his views…
That Islamic party is coming soon, with plenty of disaffected councillors and maybe a couple of MPs ready to get involved. An absolute disaster for the country
I think if the story stays with Muslim MPs and voters abandoning Labour then SKS should easily shake it off. It makes it a factional story, rather than a more deep rooted rebellion. That’s where the Jess Phillips resignation is surprising. But I assume she has a lot of Muslim constituents.
Yes Sir Keir (they called him that a few times on BBC News at Ten tonight) can probably afford to lose them, but a few years down the line this will be a sea change in English politics - a party, winning seats in parliament, that is solely concerned with the views and demands of a religion and it’s adherents
Jordan Tyldesley: It’s a really big thing that we have British politicians walking away from their duties due to sectarian pressure in their constituencies about a war that has got nothing to do with us. A war between our ally and a terrorist group. Begging you to see how significant this is.
Is Israel our ally? It's a country we enjoy broadly friendly relations with but it's not a member of NATO nor as far as I am aware are we a member of any other defensive alliance alongside it. I'm not an expert on our military alliances though and am happy to be corrected.
Who would a “Muslim” party be a disaster for the UK?
Anyone is entitled to start or vote for any party, as long as it is lawful. We’re a democracy. It would attract quite conservative Muslims, I suspect - and good luck to them
And it might be better if those people weren’t in the Labour Party (as they tend to be now) as a lot of their values aren’t really left wing - forcing both sides into awkward hypocrisy or compromise
Who would a “Muslim” party be a disaster for the UK?
I'd like to see it happen but the track record of Islamic parties in Western Europe isn't good. Belgium (ISLAM) and the Netherlands (Nida) both had them but they only ever had minor success in municipal elections then fizzled out.
It would need to have serious Saudi or Iranian money behind it to get anywhere which I suppose is not impossible.
Because adding yet more wind distorts the energy mix, and means that there has to be way too much overall capacity to take account of the calm days. All in the name of Net Zero.
Because adding yet more wind distorts the energy mix, and means that there has to be way too much overall capacity to take account of the calm days. All in the name of Net Zero.
Just build some mini nukes. Diversify the mix and tough out the no wind days.
Watching BBC News at 10, they covered this story then cut to a Muslim who previously voted Labour but now is looking to vote for ‘an independent’ who is more representative of his views…
That Islamic party is coming soon, with plenty of disaffected councillors and maybe a couple of MPs ready to get involved. An absolute disaster for the country
I think if the story stays with Muslim MPs and voters abandoning Labour then SKS should easily shake it off. It makes it a factional story, rather than a more deep rooted rebellion. That’s where the Jess Phillips resignation is surprising. But I assume she has a lot of Muslim constituents.
Yes Sir Keir (they called him that a few times on BBC News at Ten tonight) can probably afford to lose them, but a few years down the line this will be a sea change in English politics - a party, winning seats in parliament, that is solely concerned with the views and demands of a religion and it’s adherents
Jordan Tyldesley: It’s a really big thing that we have British politicians walking away from their duties due to sectarian pressure in their constituencies about a war that has got nothing to do with us. A war between our ally and a terrorist group. Begging you to see how significant this is.
Is Israel our ally? It's a country we enjoy broadly friendly relations with but it's not a member of NATO nor as far as I am aware are we a member of any other defensive alliance alongside it. I'm not an expert on our military alliances though and am happy to be corrected.
The UK buys a lot of defence equipment and services from them but they wouldn't hesitate for a moment to fuck the UK over if it suited their interests.
The British sold them a load of LR Defenders so they got their fucking over in first.
Because adding yet more wind distorts the energy mix, and means that there has to be way too much overall capacity to take account of the calm days. All in the name of Net Zero.
Just build some mini nukes. Diversify the mix and tough out the no wind days.
Yes, gov should agree to fund Rolls Royce for the first dozen or so SMRs, to get their production line up and running. Their American competitor has dropped out after they couldn’t get enough funding, so there’s a huge opportunity for exports of the technology.
Watching BBC News at 10, they covered this story then cut to a Muslim who previously voted Labour but now is looking to vote for ‘an independent’ who is more representative of his views…
That Islamic party is coming soon, with plenty of disaffected councillors and maybe a couple of MPs ready to get involved. An absolute disaster for the country
I think if the story stays with Muslim MPs and voters abandoning Labour then SKS should easily shake it off. It makes it a factional story, rather than a more deep rooted rebellion. That’s where the Jess Phillips resignation is surprising. But I assume she has a lot of Muslim constituents.
Yes Sir Keir (they called him that a few times on BBC News at Ten tonight) can probably afford to lose them, but a few years down the line this will be a sea change in English politics - a party, winning seats in parliament, that is solely concerned with the views and demands of a religion and it’s adherents
Jordan Tyldesley: It’s a really big thing that we have British politicians walking away from their duties due to sectarian pressure in their constituencies about a war that has got nothing to do with us. A war between our ally and a terrorist group. Begging you to see how significant this is.
Is Israel our ally? It's a country we enjoy broadly friendly relations with but it's not a member of NATO nor as far as I am aware are we a member of any other defensive alliance alongside it. I'm not an expert on our military alliances though and am happy to be corrected.
Technically it isn't. It's not an enemy by any stretch, and we've treated it badly in the past (we promised to send it tanks, the Arabs kicked off, we reneged on the deal. When the French did something similar, the Israelis went "fuck it" and developed their own defence industry which is better than ours)
Arguably we should be an ally with it: its defence industry and good relations with the US (its version of the F35 is better than ours) would make it a good fit. But we don't have the money nor sufficient interests in the region to cover more than information and emotional support, which is what we are doing now.
We have the same problem with India, which is not a military ally. Worse, India can be unsympathetic as it was during Salisbury. UK people have a sentimental view of the world that doesn't match a more hard-headed assessment.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
This is hilarious.
Ok. So you don’t think the Tories are trending down. It’s just a sequence of unfortunate events, meaning nothing. Tomorrow they’ll be polling 43% again. Got it
Duh. That's not what I mean.
Given the Tories are currently in the twenties, at best, it would take a series of unlikely events to move their support back up to 43%.
My contention is that relative support for parties is static, in the absence of anything to change it.
Events and actions over the next year might increase Tory support, or they may depress it further. To some extent that depends on what the Tories do, and to some extent it depends on events outside of their control. There's no underlying force that is continuing to act to continue the apparent trend.
I find it hilarious that you are unable to grasp this simple relationship between cause and effect, and yet you are always self-identifying as the smartest person in the room.
No. These trends exist. They are all made up of discrete events which are seemingly non-causally related - yet they exist
Correctly identifying one can make money - hence this site. @Benpointer’s graph and his trend line is, at the very least, worth looking at - and may well be indicative
I am NOT surprised you don’t get this seeing as you were - I believe - one of the morons cheering Sunak’s “genius reshuffle”
You're so wrong.
My comments on the appointment were relatively neutral, tending towards critical.
"According to the latest YouGov polling, only 18% of the public have a positive opinion of Cameron. That makes him less popular than Boris Johnson, John Major and Gordon Brown."
"Worst-case scenario is that centrists have written the Tories off and aren't listening, but bringing Cameron back/sacking Braverman alienates the right-wing. You could see RefUK push beyond 10% and the Tories sink towards 20%."
"UKIP received 12.9% of the vote (in GB) at the 2015 GE. Maybe this is a masterstroke from Sunak, but I can see how it could go terribly wrong too. 13% for Faragists to the Tories right could leave Sunak with just 20% of the vote."
"Just to remind everyone why they were glad to see Cameron and Osborne piss off in 2016?"
But of course, you had decided that, since I disagreed with you on one thing I would disagree with you about everything else. Which is not surprising because you can't keep up with your own views on things let alone anyone else's.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
This is hilarious.
Ok. So you don’t think the Tories are trending down. It’s just a sequence of unfortunate events, meaning nothing. Tomorrow they’ll be polling 43% again. Got it
Duh. That's not what I mean.
Given the Tories are currently in the twenties, at best, it would take a series of unlikely events to move their support back up to 43%.
My contention is that relative support for parties is static, in the absence of anything to change it.
Events and actions over the next year might increase Tory support, or they may depress it further. To some extent that depends on what the Tories do, and to some extent it depends on events outside of their control. There's no underlying force that is continuing to act to continue the apparent trend.
I find it hilarious that you are unable to grasp this simple relationship between cause and effect, and yet you are always self-identifying as the smartest person in the room.
No. These trends exist. They are all made up of discrete events which are seemingly non-causally related - yet they exist
Correctly identifying one can make money - hence this site. @Benpointer’s graph and his trend line is, at the very least, worth looking at - and may well be indicative
I am NOT surprised you don’t get this seeing as you were - I believe - one of the morons cheering Sunak’s “genius reshuffle”
You're so wrong.
My comments on the appointment were relatively neutral, tending towards critical.
"According to the latest YouGov polling, only 18% of the public have a positive opinion of Cameron. That makes him less popular than Boris Johnson, John Major and Gordon Brown."
"Worst-case scenario is that centrists have written the Tories off and aren't listening, but bringing Cameron back/sacking Braverman alienates the right-wing. You could see RefUK push beyond 10% and the Tories sink towards 20%."
"UKIP received 12.9% of the vote (in GB) at the 2015 GE. Maybe this is a masterstroke from Sunak, but I can see how it could go terribly wrong too. 13% for Faragists to the Tories right could leave Sunak with just 20% of the vote."
"Just to remind everyone why they were glad to see Cameron and Osborne piss off in 2016?"
But of course, you had decided that, since I disagreed with you on one thing I would disagree with you about everything else. Which is not surprising because you can't keep up with your own views on things let alone anyone else's.
Apologies. If you said that then I clearly called it wrong. My bad
Comments
Anyone is entitled to start or vote for any party, as long as it is lawful. We’re a democracy. It would attract quite conservative Muslims, I suspect - and good luck to them
And it might be better if those people weren’t in the Labour Party (as they tend to be now) as a lot of their values aren’t really left wing - forcing both sides into awkward hypocrisy or compromise
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/16/coutinho-boost-subsidies-wind-farm-projects-auction-flop/
The Americans pressured Australia* and South Korea into sending troops, but mostly as a way of internationalising the war politically.
Ultimately, like in Afghanistan, the war was lost because the local people had no real love of a corrupt puppet regime imposed by foreign powers.
*a cousin of my father's was there with the Australian army.
It would need to have serious Saudi or Iranian money behind it to get anywhere which I suppose is not impossible.
The British sold them a load of LR Defenders so they got their fucking over in first.
NEW THREAD
Arguably we should be an ally with it: its defence industry and good relations with the US (its version of the F35 is better than ours) would make it a good fit. But we don't have the money nor sufficient interests in the region to cover more than information and emotional support, which is what we are doing now.
We have the same problem with India, which is not a military ally. Worse, India can be unsympathetic as it was during Salisbury. UK people have a sentimental view of the world that doesn't match a more hard-headed assessment.
My comments on the appointment were relatively neutral, tending towards critical.
"According to the latest YouGov polling, only 18% of the public have a positive opinion of Cameron. That makes him less popular than Boris Johnson, John Major and Gordon Brown."
"Worst-case scenario is that centrists have written the Tories off and aren't listening, but bringing Cameron back/sacking Braverman alienates the right-wing. You could see RefUK push beyond 10% and the Tories sink towards 20%."
"UKIP received 12.9% of the vote (in GB) at the 2015 GE. Maybe this is a masterstroke from Sunak, but I can see how it could go terribly wrong too. 13% for Faragists to the Tories right could leave Sunak with just 20% of the vote."
"Just to remind everyone why they were glad to see Cameron and Osborne piss off in 2016?"
But of course, you had decided that, since I disagreed with you on one thing I would disagree with you about everything else. Which is not surprising because you can't keep up with your own views on things let alone anyone else's.