The Tories have to abandon any hope of the 43% Boris 2019 triumph
Instead they should go for what I call the “33 strategy” - which means they get 33 votes in total, from the 33 people on PB who think sacking Braverman and appointing Cameron was a brilliant idea
What Sunak should do now - to cunningly reverse expectations - is sack the unpopular Foreign Secretary, David Duke of Brexit, and - yes - appoint totemic and articulate right winger Suella Braverman, as maybe Home Secretary - and tell her to simply do whatever it takes to sort the boats
That would stop Cameron annoying the Remainers by his mere continued existence, and also win back the right wing votes he is losing to Reform. Could be a game changer
I'd not put it past him.
Ultimately, this is Mike Tyson stuff... everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face.
Sunak had a perfectly adequate plan - set some aims, broadly meet them, then say, "look, I'm the kind of steady guy who sets some aims and broadly meets them".
But it wasn't working so he started riffing. I'm the driver's pal. I'm a straight talker. I'm modern Britain. I hate woke. Suella's been cancelled. I'm the change candidate. Here's good old Dave from the past.
It's the flailing nonsense of a man with bad concussion.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Tory fightback from last night, only the 27pt deficit now. Onwards and upwards!
For all the salivating over polls, there are some counter points. One, the vast majority of the public wouldn’t recognise Starmer. They pay little to no attention to politics until the election. Reform are not going to get 10%. Polls always narrow with the election campaign.
I am appalled by the indiscipline of the labour rebels. They stand on the brink of actually being able to do something for the first time in 13 years and they throw their toys out of the pram over words. Idiots.
I'm sure Labour won't win by 27% and I'm sure the Tories won't get under 20%, bui it's notable that - a maximum of 14 months before an election, but more likely under 12 - the trend and outliers point to an even bigger Labour lead, rather than a tightening contest. Not one poll have we had with the lead under 10% in a very long time.
The Tories are running out of time. And they look utterly lost as to what their strategy is - continuity or change, populist right or reassuringly centrist.
A Labour rebellion on Israel with one household name taking part is small fry in comparison.
What Sunak should do now - to cunningly reverse expectations - is sack the unpopular Foreign Secretary, David Duke of Brexit, and - yes - appoint totemic and articulate right winger Suella Braverman, as maybe Home Secretary - and tell her to simply do whatever it takes to sort the boats
That would stop Cameron annoying the Remainers by his mere continued existence, and also win back the right wing votes he is losing to Reform. Could be a game changer
If that's the best cunning plan, do tell us, what is the second best cunning plan?
What Sunak should do now - to cunningly reverse expectations - is sack the unpopular Foreign Secretary, David Duke of Brexit, and - yes - appoint totemic and articulate right winger Suella Braverman, as maybe Home Secretary - and tell her to simply do whatever it takes to sort the boats
That would stop Cameron annoying the Remainers by his mere continued existence, and also win back the right wing votes he is losing to Reform. Could be a game changer
If that's the best cunning plan, do tell us, what is the second best cunning plan?
Decide that at this time of global crisis, the UK needs someone with the right experience on the world stage and appoint Tony Blair as acting Prime Minister while he goes back to the Treasury.
How important do you think the issue of domestic abuse is if you are willing to forsake your direct involvement in trying to prevent it for a vote on Gaza ffs.
I'm a social worker...it is really difficult to square what is happening to children in Gaza, (and getting much worse), to my job here.
I don't think I have ever seen such appalling brutality against children so openly filmed and documented real time in Gaza every day..
The Tories have to abandon any hope of the 43% Boris 2019 triumph
Instead they should go for what I call the “33 strategy” - which means they get 33 votes in total, from the 33 people on PB who think sacking Braverman and appointing Cameron was a brilliant idea
Lol. Most of us would never vote for them in a million years!
She was also absolutely right on a series of crucial issues
She was literally the "brains" behind the Rwanda scheme that was eviscerated in the courts.
She got sacked for being shit at her job.
No, priti patel came up with Rwanda. Suella tried her best to get it through, but as her “punchy” letter makes clear, Sunak was never really into it. And I entirely believe her
Sunak is not a man for hard fights. He liked the performative right wing ness of Rwanda but was never really committed to the hard nasty stuff of getting it through - leave the ECHR, tell the UN to fuck off, enact primary legislation to squash the Supreme Court
And of course it is totally fine to believe that leaving the ECHR is a terrible idea (I can see the logic even if I disagree) but you either choose one or the other. Sunak wanted both
As @Cookie put it the other day - better than anyone - the government is in the truly dreadful position of looking and sounding like a populist right wing government (and getting all the shit from that) but not actually doing anything right wing (so not getting any of the credit for hard but productive policies)
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
How important do you think the issue of domestic abuse is if you are willing to forsake your direct involvement in trying to prevent it for a vote on Gaza ffs.
I'm a social worker...it is really difficult to square what is happening to children in Gaza, (and getting much worse), to my job here.
I don't think I have ever seen such appalling brutality against children so openly filmed and documented real time in Gaza every day..
That's very true. However, Starmer has to tread carefully after Corbyn's conflation of Likud with Jewish Labour MPs. Bearing in mind Bibi's blood lust after the vile events of October 7th he couldn't care less what Jess Phillips thinks, and neither do Hamas. Humanitarian pauses which are a realistic request make more sense than demanding a ceasefire that both Netanyahu and Hamas will ignore.
Now where am I? I fully sympathise with the Labour rebels. Am I in the wrong party?
Me to. As I replied to Owen Smith's latest email asking for a donation 'I support Labour because their heart is in the right place. With Keir Starmer it isn't anymore. No more emails please".
I honestly don’t understand why Starmer insisted on this party position. The vote doesn’t matter, so what was the harm in allowing Labour MPs the freedom to vote with their conscience?
Earlier one might have argued that it was a great opportunity for Starmer to push out the last of the Momentum crew by forcing them to take a stand commensurate with their obsession with Palestinian politics to the exclusion of actual UK politics, but after weeks of bombing we’re far beyond that point now & it’s only going to get worse from here on in as the deaths on the ground continue to mount.
Erm, the Labour rebels are still in the Labour Party.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
Yes, or go on holiday somewhere hot with servants.
How important do you think the issue of domestic abuse is if you are willing to forsake your direct involvement in trying to prevent it for a vote on Gaza ffs.
I'm a social worker...it is really difficult to square what is happening to children in Gaza, (and getting much worse), to my job here.
I don't think I have ever seen such appalling brutality against children so openly filmed and documented real time in Gaza every day..
Dreadful isn't it. How is the shadow domestic abuse minister resigning going to help.
Do you think the children of Gaza will be helped by her resignation?
Typical leftie. You don't make the poor richer by making the rich poorer. You don't help the children of Gaza by making the children of the UK worse off.
By sacking Braverman and appointing Cameron, Sunak has taken the Tories to the edge of utter extinction
While I agree that appointing Cameron was a mistake, you're missing the fact that Ms Braverman was desperate to get sacked.
If it didn't happen over this, there would be something else. And if that failed, she'd quit, claiming that she had been stymied in all her attempts to limit immigration by Number 10.
He should have just ignored the Guardian. Fuck the libs. Let Suella be Suella
Also: let her own the Rwanda decision and let her try and fix it. Instead he sacked her three days BEFORE the judgment so she looks completely vindicated and he gets all the shit
He’s dragged the Tories to the edge of a mighty cliff. He’s really really bad at politics. Appoint Cameron, sack Braverman? Genius, not
Is there any line that you wouldn't have wanted Suella to cross?
Giving Rishi a twirling wedgie during the King's Speech?
Proposing the abolition the Royal Family because they're all bloody Germans?
Because she had got to the point that she was prepared to do whatever it took to be sacked. There's no good way of managing people like that.
She was a bit mean to homeless people. That’s it
She was also absolutely right on a series of crucial issues and - more importantly - was apparently the only Tory politician with the balls to say this stuff out loud. She was - as I say - totemic
So he sacked her. It is beyond pathetic
Beware the troll under the bridge. Please don’t feed him, he is liable to vomit pb posts all night if you do.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
If he amends legislation re Rwanda to ensure refugees fleeing persecution are not sent back to the nation they are fleeing from and migrants can still be persecuted abroad he may be able to get Reform back under 10%. Otherwise the Tories and Reform would probably end up merged Canada style within 10 years if that was the next UK general election result and we still had FPTP by then
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Tory fightback from last night, only the 27pt deficit now. Onwards and upwards!
The amazing thing is, after the Rwanda judgment and the Suella letter, the Tory polling could actually go even lower
Sunak's response to the Rwanda judgement is a sop to the swivel-eyed. Any positives from hiring Cameron are nullified. He might as well have made Miriam Cates or Jonathan Gullis Home Secretary and be done with it.
How important do you think the issue of domestic abuse is if you are willing to forsake your direct involvement in trying to prevent it for a vote on Gaza ffs.
I'm a social worker...it is really difficult to square what is happening to children in Gaza, (and getting much worse), to my job here.
I don't think I have ever seen such appalling brutality against children so openly filmed and documented real time in Gaza every day..
Yes. Tears in my family over this too. A barbarous abomination. Have Hamas cried sufficiently over all this to think they might have released the hostages, stopped firing rockets and negotiated peace, expressed sorrow for the massacre and saved the lives of many of their children?
AP (via Seattle Times) - New Hampshire defies national Democrats’ new calendar and sets the presidential primary for Jan. 23
CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — New Hampshire’s secretary of state on Wednesday scheduled the state’s presidential primaries for Jan. 23, 2024, extending its century-old streak of going first despite national Democrats’ efforts to overhaul the nominating calendar.
State law requires New Hampshire’s Republican and Democratic primaries to be held at least seven days before any similar contest and gives the secretary of state sole authority to set the date. Like his predecessor did for decades, Secretary of State David Scanlan waited for the dust to settle in other states before announcing his decision.
“New Hampshire has a tradition, and New Hampshire has a law, and both the tradition and the law were going to be followed no matter what,” he said.
Republicans will kick off the nominating process with the Iowa caucus on Jan. 15, 2024. New Hampshire’s primary eight days later will be a crucial opportunity for GOP candidates to show they can remain competitive against former President Donald Trump, the early front-runner for their party’s presidential nomination. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in particular has put New Hampshire at the center of his strategy.
Iowa’s Democrats also will caucus on Jan. 15, 2024, but not release the presidential results immediately to comply with new party rules sought by President Joe Biden, who argued Black and other minority voters should play a larger, earlier role. Iowa and New Hampshire are each more than 90% white. . . .
The Democratic National Committee approved a new calendar with a primary in South Carolina, which has a large Black population, on Feb. 3, 2024, followed three days later by Nevada. The schedule also moves Michigan into the group of early states voting before Super Tuesday on March 5, 2024, when most of the rest of the country holds primaries.
There will be 24 Republicans on the ballot in New Hampshire and 21 Democrats. Biden won’t appear on the New Hampshire ballot and isn’t planning to campaign there, though some of the state’s top Democrats are organizing a write-in campaign backing his reelection bid. Scanlan, a Republican, called Biden’s decision a “sad choice.” . . .
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
London Zoo, the Nightlife bit of the Rainforest Experience.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Tory fightback from last night, only the 27pt deficit now. Onwards and upwards!
It's not plausible but that gives
Labour 528 seats Tories 47 Lib Dems 35 SNP 19
And on that result Rishi would be losing his seat so would be straight off to California..
We don't know what's implausible. Recent by-election results suggest the polls are not a million miles out and the amount of volatility in the electorate since 2010 shows in a different way the decline of strong and lasting party identification.
Probably an election would see a return of some Con/Ref and Con/DK voters, though I this will be far from all of them, while I'd also expect Lab to consolidate some of the LD/Grn vote, or for it to redistribute more efficiently.
I certainly don't think it implausible that Starmer could win bigger than Blair, though it's odds-against at the moment (and that's assuming that the SNP hold on to a decent number in Scotland).
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
London Zoo, the Nightlife bit of the Rainforest Experience.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
London Zoo, the Nightlife bit of the Rainforest Experience.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
That would be somewhat ironic bearing in mind Lord Cameron of Schweineficker called the EU Referendum to unify the Conservative Party in the first place
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
London Zoo, the Nightlife bit of the Rainforest Experience.
Wasn't that on Shaftesbury Avenue?
Didn't know there was one, actually. Thinking of the one more convenient for Leon.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Tory fightback from last night, only the 27pt deficit now. Onwards and upwards!
The amazing thing is, after the Rwanda judgment and the Suella letter, the Tory polling could actually go even lower
Sunak's response to the Rwanda judgement is a sop to the swivel-eyed. Any positives from hiring Cameron are nullified. He might as well have made Miriam Cates or Jonathan Gullis Home Secretary and be done with it.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
How important do you think the issue of domestic abuse is if you are willing to forsake your direct involvement in trying to prevent it for a vote on Gaza ffs.
I'm a social worker...it is really difficult to square what is happening to children in Gaza, (and getting much worse), to my job here.
I don't think I have ever seen such appalling brutality against children so openly filmed and documented real time in Gaza every day..
That's very true. However, Starmer has to tread carefully after Corbyn's conflation of Likud with Jewish Labour MPs. Bearing in mind Bibi's blood lust after the vile events of October 7th he couldn't care less what Jess Phillips thinks, and neither do Hamas. Humanitarian pauses which are a realistic request make more sense than demanding a ceasefire that both Netanyahu and Hamas will ignore.
Clever, if cynical politics by the SNP.
Israel's been operating (one-sided) humanitarian pauses for several days now, mostly to allow for civilians trapped by Hamas in Gaza to evacuate. For example, see here: https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1723623097331302688
Obviously not being widely reported here, cos narrative.
Word is that they are close to agreeing a three day "ceasefire" in exchange for 50 hostages released, plus increases in international aid and release of some Palestinian prisoners. I haven't seen this reported here, either.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
Yes, or go on holiday somewhere hot with servants.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Tory fightback from last night, only the 27pt deficit now. Onwards and upwards!
It's not plausible but that gives
Labour 528 seats Tories 47 Lib Dems 35 SNP 19
And on that result Rishi would be losing his seat so would be straight off to California..
We don't know what's implausible. Recent by-election results suggest the polls are not a million miles out and the amount of volatility in the electorate since 2010 shows in a different way the decline of strong and lasting party identification.
Probably an election would see a return of some Con/Ref and Con/DK voters, though I this will be far from all of them, while I'd also expect Lab to consolidate some of the LD/Grn vote, or for it to redistribute more efficiently.
I certainly don't think it implausible that Starmer could win bigger than Blair, though it's odds-against at the moment (and that's assuming that the SNP hold on to a decent number in Scotland).
However badly Major's Conservatives did in 1997, they just about avoided falling over the FPTP cliff edge, somewhere in the twenties percent.
Sunak has a bigger threat to his right (cf Canada), and... he's not as good at politics as JMexPM.
*A group of Tory MPs met at the 5 Hertford Street private members club in Mayfair this week where they agreed to send no confidence letters in Rishi Sunak and try to coordinate more from colleagues in a plot to remove the prime minister*
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
If he amends legislation re Rwanda to ensure refugees fleeing persecution are not sent back to the nation they are fleeing from and migrants can still be persecuted abroad he may be able to get Reform back under 10%. Otherwise the Tories and Reform would probably end up merged Canada style within 10 years if that was the next UK general election result and we still had FPTP by then
But wouldn't the one nation feudal Tories have either lost interest in politics or found homes within other less frenetic parties? If all that is left is the name Conservative Party, I am not sure that is enough.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Tory fightback from last night, only the 27pt deficit now. Onwards and upwards!
It's not plausible but that gives
Labour 528 seats Tories 47 Lib Dems 35 SNP 19
And on that result Rishi would be losing his seat so would be straight off to California..
We don't know what's implausible. Recent by-election results suggest the polls are not a million miles out and the amount of volatility in the electorate since 2010 shows in a different way the decline of strong and lasting party identification.
Probably an election would see a return of some Con/Ref and Con/DK voters, though I this will be far from all of them, while I'd also expect Lab to consolidate some of the LD/Grn vote, or for it to redistribute more efficiently.
I certainly don't think it implausible that Starmer could win bigger than Blair, though it's odds-against at the moment (and that's assuming that the SNP hold on to a decent number in Scotland).
The Conservatives' biggest problem for 33 years is that its MPs have mostly hated each other, and don't actually seem to have a function other than to pursue vendettas. Given that all governments are unpopular right now, due to the fall out from Covid and Ukraine, then it's a perfect storm.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
*A group of Tory MPs met at the 5 Hertford Street private members club in Mayfair this week where they agreed to send no confidence letters in Rishi Sunak and try to coordinate more from colleagues in a plot to remove the prime minister*
God, how badly written is that? I assume he means "...where they agreed to send 'no confidence in Rishi Sunak' letters..."
Now where am I? I fully sympathise with the Labour rebels. Am I in the wrong party?
Me to. As I replied to Owen Smith's latest email asking for a donation 'I support Labour because their heart is in the right place. With Keir Starmer it isn't anymore. No more emails please".
Roger, whereas I understand your pain, what on earth would demanding a ceasefire between Bibi and Hamas achieve? 1. Bibi doesn't want a ceasefire, and 2. Hamas don't want a ceasefire.
Arguing for humanitarian pauses is realistically the best one can hope for.
Of course it doesn't make a difference but it's good to know when there's a simple question of humanity where your chosen party will stand. I always know where the Tories will which is why they'd never get my vote. Apart from that it's tactically bonkers to line up behind Sunak and Netanyahu and lose some of the best and brightest in your own party
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
Now where am I? I fully sympathise with the Labour rebels. Am I in the wrong party?
Me to. As I replied to Owen Smith's latest email asking for a donation 'I support Labour because their heart is in the right place. With Keir Starmer it isn't anymore. No more emails please".
Do you want the good news or the bad news first Sir Keir?
Good news is you've got a 27pp poll lead. Bad news is some old fart on PB.com isn't prepared to shell out a fiver from his pension.
So I'll prepare your tearful resignation speech, shall I?
Any reason why you choose to be so rude without even being witty?
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That is quite a trend. It does point inexorably to a ~20-25% result at the GE (or even worse) - and total electoral oblivion
Should also be pointed out the Conservative average poll rating in the days before Boris resigned as PM was more than the combined Tory and Reform vote in tonight's and last night's polls and about 10-15% more than the polls in the days before Truss resigned as PM too.
It was Tory MPs who decided to get rid of Boris NOT Tory members and it is Tory MPs who will face the punishment for that, on the latest polls over half of them, maybe even 3/4 of them, will lose their seats.
If that is the case you can be assured Tory members will pick the most hardline rightwinger they can find as leader in Opposition to win back voters lost to Reform, they would even pick Farage if they had the chance
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Definitely a true statement. It's impossible to have less than 0 pc polling.
Now where am I? I fully sympathise with the Labour rebels. Am I in the wrong party?
Me to. As I replied to Owen Smith's latest email asking for a donation 'I support Labour because their heart is in the right place. With Keir Starmer it isn't anymore. No more emails please".
Do you want the good news or the bad news first Sir Keir?
Good news is you've got a 27pp poll lead. Bad news is some old fart on PB.com isn't prepared to shell out a fiver from his pension.
So I'll prepare your tearful resignation speech, shall I?
Any reason why you choose to be so rude without even being witty?
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
If he amends legislation re Rwanda to ensure refugees fleeing persecution are not sent back to the nation they are fleeing from and migrants can still be persecuted abroad he may be able to get Reform back under 10%. Otherwise the Tories and Reform would probably end up merged Canada style within 10 years if that was the next UK general election result and we still had FPTP by then
But wouldn't the one nation feudal Tories have either lost interest in politics or found homes within other less frenetic parties? If all that is left is the name Conservative Party, I am not sure that is enough.
A few might go Liberal (as some PCs went Liberal in Canada rather than join a party merged with the Canadian Alliance) however the bulk of the Tory party would join a united right with ReformUK forming a new Conservative Party
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
Very nice. I think Cambodia has changed an awful lot over the years, witness "luxury hotels". When were you last there.
Last year - which gave me the idea for this gazette article. Seeing how much Cambodia has changed
My prior visit before that one was in 2008 so yeah, many changes
I first came to Cambodia in the late 1990s when it was still shattered from the Khmer Rouge
Now I am eating the best chocolate granola of my life, it is freshly made and wrapped in a banana leaf
With red wine?
Yes it’s perfect!
You STILL hear terrible stories, here, from Khmer Rouge days. My guide yesterday, Changan, casually mentioned that he was 7 when the Khmer Rouge were overthrown. He was living in a children’s camp, separated from his parents (all kids were forcibly taken from their families aged 5, for indoctrination)
The Khmer Rouge guards fled and he set off to walk across the country to find his parents. He still vividly remembers walking through fields “strewn with corpses”
I mean, my God. What do you say? I didn’t say much
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
Very nice. I think Cambodia has changed an awful lot over the years, witness "luxury hotels". When were you last there.
Last year - which gave me the idea for this gazette article. Seeing how much Cambodia has changed
My prior visit before that one was in 2008 so yeah, many changes
I first came to Cambodia in the late 1990s when it was still shattered from the Khmer Rouge
Now I am eating the best chocolate granola of my life, it is freshly made and wrapped in a banana leaf
Good book there. I read it last year.
It makes sense of why Maoism has remained popular in so many parts of the world.
Yes, so far so good
The juxtaposition of the book, and the location, and the luxury food item was too photogenic to resist
I’ve also got Frank Dikotter’s “the Cultural Revolution” on audio - so total immersion in the subject
Dikotter is very good on Totalitarianism.
Maoism like Islamism has an appeal that we need to understand if it is to be defeated. An economic system that is endemically corrupt and excludes the poor is very vulnerable to such revolutions, as Chiang and a number of Middle East authoritarians found out.
Social and economic justice are needed for order to be sustained. Otherwise bloody Revolution follows.
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
This is hilarious.
Is this based on Uniform Swing? If so, we can relax slightly.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That is quite a trend. It does point inexorably to a ~20-25% result at the GE (or even worse) - and total electoral oblivion
Should also be pointed out the Conservative average poll rating in the days before Boris resigned as PM was more than the combined Tory and Reform vote in tonight's and last night's polls and about 10-15% more than the polls in the days before Truss resigned as PM too.
It was Tory MPs who decided to get rid of Boris NOT Tory members and it is Tory MPs who will face the punishment for that, on the latest polls over half of them, maybe even 3/4 of them, will lose their seats.
If that is the case you can be assured Tory members will pick the most hardline rightwinger they can find as leader in Opposition to win back voters lost to Reform, they would even pick Farage if they had the chance
Every vote you gain from Reform will cost two to the LDs/Labour.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
This is hilarious.
Ok. So you don’t think the Tories are trending down. It’s just a sequence of unfortunate events, meaning nothing. Tomorrow they’ll be polling 43% again. Got it
Refuse to fund NHS recovery, and make life harder for disabled people, in order to do something for the richest 5% of households who pay Inheritance Tax.
That'll help.
*A group of Tory MPs met at the 5 Hertford Street private members club in Mayfair this week where they agreed to send no confidence letters in Rishi Sunak and try to coordinate more from colleagues in a plot to remove the prime minister*
Alex was probably busy honing the Cd of his coiffure when he wrote that sentence.
That's not a great answer for Sunak to give to the question though. Can you imagine it...?
Interviewer: "Mr Sunak, how much inheritance tax will your children save from this tax cut?" Sunak: "This isn't about me, this is about the aspiration of families across the c -- " Interviewer (interrupting): "Isn't it true that this tax cut would reduce your children's inheritance tax bill by £200 million?" Sunak: "No, that isn't right. Thanks to the way we have structured our finances we hope that their inheritance tax bill will be zero, and so this tax cut will only benefit those mugs who haven't employed tax accountants to help them with their estate planning."
Until today I thought it was EXTREMELY unlikely Sunak could face a challenge. But his reshuffle is so obviously catastrophic - and the Rwanda debacle only makes it worse - I believe he is now at risk
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Can you never just take things in your stride and be calm. There is enough in this world to get excited about or angry about without the constant hyperbola and panic and requirement to post and convince yourself that you are right or have an IQ bigger than everyone here.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
It’s 4am and I’m in a jungle drinking red wine. I’ll do what I like
Where are you?
The rainforest of the Cardamom Mountains, Cambodia
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
Very nice. I think Cambodia has changed an awful lot over the years, witness "luxury hotels". When were you last there.
Last year - which gave me the idea for this gazette article. Seeing how much Cambodia has changed
My prior visit before that one was in 2008 so yeah, many changes
I first came to Cambodia in the late 1990s when it was still shattered from the Khmer Rouge
Now I am eating the best chocolate granola of my life, it is freshly made and wrapped in a banana leaf
Good book there. I read it last year.
It makes sense of why Maoism has remained popular in so many parts of the world.
Yes, so far so good
The juxtaposition of the book, and the location, and the luxury food item was too photogenic to resist
I’ve also got Frank Dikotter’s “the Cultural Revolution” on audio - so total immersion in the subject
Dikotter is very good on Totalitarianism.
Maoism like Islamism has an appeal that we need to understand if it is to be defeated. An economic system that is endemically corrupt and excludes the poor is very vulnerable to such revolutions, as Chiang and a number of Middle East authoritarians found out.
Social and economic justice are needed for order to be sustained. Otherwise bloody Revolution follows.
Thanks. I am fascinated by Chinese history - so much we don’t know. Will read
I agree on Maoism. It needs to be understood - apparently brutal and violent - yet it has had worldwide appeal. I want to know more
Refuse to fund NHS recovery, and make life harder for disabled people, in order to do something for the richest 5% of households who pay Inheritance Tax.
That'll help.
I am sure that to a billionaire it makes perfect sense. Unfortunately in a democracy that is only a handful of votes.
Now where am I? I fully sympathise with the Labour rebels. Am I in the wrong party?
Me to. As I replied to Owen Smith's latest email asking for a donation 'I support Labour because their heart is in the right place. With Keir Starmer it isn't anymore. No more emails please".
I honestly don’t understand why Starmer insisted on this party position. The vote doesn’t matter, so what was the harm in allowing Labour MPs the freedom to vote with their conscience?
Earlier one might have argued that it was a great opportunity for Starmer to push out the last of the Momentum crew by forcing them to take a stand commensurate with their obsession with Palestinian politics to the exclusion of actual UK politics, but after weeks of bombing we’re far beyond that point now & it’s only going to get worse from here on in as the deaths on the ground continue to mount.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
This is hilarious.
Is this based on Uniform Swing? If so, we can relax slightly.
Which one was the Tory Gain, btw - if we know?
As the only other party to lose seats is the SNP, it must be a Scottish one. Are these on the new boundaries? It might be something in the north-east with a current notional small SNP majority? If it's using the old ones, then maybe Gordon?
Refuse to fund NHS recovery, and make life harder for disabled people, in order to do something for the richest 5% of households who pay Inheritance Tax.
That'll help.
19% is going to be a high water marker for Tory voters in future polling...
Reduced Inheritance tax is really going to help people seeing 70%+ rates of tax as they hit the £50,000 and £100,000 wage barriers.
For reference I quit a contract this week because if I worked one more day I hit that magic £100,000 point - it simply wasn't worth the stress for pittance I would have got for the next 2 months..
Refuse to fund NHS recovery, and make life harder for disabled people, in order to do something for the richest 5% of households who pay Inheritance Tax.
That'll help.
Even if you thought that it's a good idea — it isn't — thinking it's a good idea right now is really nuts. Sunak appears to be politically a total numpty.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
This is hilarious.
Ok. So you don’t think the Tories are trending down. It’s just a sequence of unfortunate events, meaning nothing. Tomorrow they’ll be polling 43% again. Got it
It's interesting, inasmuch as I don't think it hugely reflects the British people becoming more left wing - issue-based polling demonstrates this; we're on the whole small-c conservative communitarians. We've just had several years of shitshow and the current set of clowns, to quote Joe Pesci in Casino, would fuck up a cup of coffee.
Watching BBC News at 10, they covered this story then cut to a Muslim who previously voted Labour but now is looking to vote for ‘an independent’ who is more representative of his views…
That Islamic party is coming soon, with plenty of disaffected councillors and maybe a couple of MPs ready to get involved. An absolute disaster for the country
Refuse to fund NHS recovery, and make life harder for disabled people, in order to do something for the richest 5% of households who pay Inheritance Tax.
That'll help.
*A group of Tory MPs met at the 5 Hertford Street private members club in Mayfair this week where they agreed to send no confidence letters in Rishi Sunak and try to coordinate more from colleagues in a plot to remove the prime minister*
Alex was probably busy honing the Cd of his coiffure when he wrote that sentence.
I’m not so sure. There are enough self-interested voters out there who’ll lap up tax cuts even if it means someone else (it’s always someone else) loses out on public services or benefits. At this juncture tax cuts are probably the only hand they have left to play. Basic bribery.
FWIW my Autumn statement predictions included cutting or abolishing IHT so from a purely professional point of view I’d like to see this happening to price my prescience.
Refuse to fund NHS recovery, and make life harder for disabled people, in order to do something for the richest 5% of households who pay Inheritance Tax.
That'll help.
Even if you thought that it's a good idea — it isn't — thinking it's a good idea right now is really nuts. Sunak appears to be politically a total numpty.
It's the only thing they've got - costs less than fixing the insane flaws in our tax system...
plus HYUFD (who alongside Leon) appears to be the sole members of the focus groups the tory party is using will have orgasms over a reduction in inheritance tax..
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That is quite a trend. It does point inexorably to a ~20-25% result at the GE (or even worse) - and total electoral oblivion
Should also be pointed out the Conservative average poll rating in the days before Boris resigned as PM was more than the combined Tory and Reform vote in tonight's and last night's polls and about 10-15% more than the polls in the days before Truss resigned as PM too.
It was Tory MPs who decided to get rid of Boris NOT Tory members and it is Tory MPs who will face the punishment for that, on the latest polls over half of them, maybe even 3/4 of them, will lose their seats.
If that is the case you can be assured Tory members will pick the most hardline rightwinger they can find as leader in Opposition to win back voters lost to Reform, they would even pick Farage if they had the chance
Every vote you gain from Reform will cost two to the LDs/Labour.
No it won't, the 19% now still voting Tory would still vote Tory no matter what. It is the 10%+ now voting Reform he has to win back first, forget voters gone Labour/LD for now, his first task is to get the Conservative voteshare back from under 20% to around 30%
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
Of course I know that, my tongue is firmly in my cheek.
No, you’re right. That is a definite trend - nightmarish as it may be for right wingers like me - it is there
This is hilarious.
Ok. So you don’t think the Tories are trending down. It’s just a sequence of unfortunate events, meaning nothing. Tomorrow they’ll be polling 43% again. Got it
Duh. That's not what I mean.
Given the Tories are currently in the twenties, at best, it would take a series of unlikely events to move their support back up to 43%.
My contention is that relative support for parties is static, in the absence of anything to change it.
Events and actions over the next year might increase Tory support, or they may depress it further. To some extent that depends on what the Tories do, and to some extent it depends on events outside of their control. There's no underlying force that is continuing to act to continue the apparent trend.
I find it hilarious that you are unable to grasp this simple relationship between cause and effect, and yet you are always self-identifying as the smartest person in the room.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2) 🌳 Con 19% (-4) 🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1) ➡️ Reform 10% (+2) 🌍 Greens 8% (+1) 🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Imagine the clamor to bring Boris back if he was still in Parliament lol!
The abacus at Electoral Calculus is going to blow up.
No it's still working. LDs are the Official Opposition on those figures, new boundaries 25% tactical voting:
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
Perhaps Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party?
Who knows?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
That "relentless" trend is an artefact of your imagination. The shifts in support have been created by a succession of separate events. The common underlying cause perhaps being the rupture in the party that Boris Johnson created to "Get Brexit Done", but it does not mean that it is a trend that is bound to continue.
The 'trend' is a behavioural one, in Westminster; the polls are a reflection of that.
In reality, it's a series of step-changes, each of which knocked 5-8% off the Tory share: i. Barnard Castle ii. Paterson / Partygate breaks iii. Truss.
Truss actually knocked a good deal more than that off by the end but some of it was only temporary.
There is, however, a serious risk for the Tories that their behaviour now is kicking off another step-change down; that infighting and incompetence, set against a backdrop of a winter NHS crisis, could peel off even more voters.
Even so, the pendulum will swing back a bit towards the election, as the Tories consolidate some of the DK/Ref switchers back into their camp.
Watching BBC News at 10, they covered this story then cut to a Muslim who previously voted Labour but now is looking to vote for ‘an independent’ who is more representative of his views…
That Islamic party is coming soon, with plenty of disaffected councillors and maybe a couple of MPs ready to get involved. An absolute disaster for the country
I think if the story stays with Muslim MPs and voters abandoning Labour then SKS should easily shake it off. It makes it a factional story, rather than a more deep rooted rebellion. That’s where the Jess Phillips resignation is surprising. But I assume she has a lot of Muslim constituents.
How important do you think the issue of domestic abuse is if you are willing to forsake your direct involvement in trying to prevent it for a vote on Gaza ffs.
I'm a social worker...it is really difficult to square what is happening to children in Gaza, (and getting much worse), to my job here.
I don't think I have ever seen such appalling brutality against children so openly filmed and documented real time in Gaza every day..
That's very true. However, Starmer has to tread carefully after Corbyn's conflation of Likud with Jewish Labour MPs. Bearing in mind Bibi's blood lust after the vile events of October 7th he couldn't care less what Jess Phillips thinks, and neither do Hamas. Humanitarian pauses which are a realistic request make more sense than demanding a ceasefire that both Netanyahu and Hamas will ignore.
Clever, if cynical politics by the SNP.
Israel's been operating (one-sided) humanitarian pauses for several days now, mostly to allow for civilians trapped by Hamas in Gaza to evacuate. For example, see here: https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1723623097331302688
Obviously not being widely reported here, cos narrative.
Word is that they are close to agreeing a three day "ceasefire" in exchange for 50 hostages released, plus increases in international aid and release of some Palestinian prisoners. I haven't seen this reported here, either.
I would expect a de facto ceasefire, even if it's not called that, quite soon.
Comments
Instead they should go for what I call the “33 strategy” - which means they get 33 votes in total, from the 33 people on PB who think sacking Braverman and appointing Cameron was a brilliant idea
Ultimately, this is Mike Tyson stuff... everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face.
Sunak had a perfectly adequate plan - set some aims, broadly meet them, then say, "look, I'm the kind of steady guy who sets some aims and broadly meets them".
But it wasn't working so he started riffing. I'm the driver's pal. I'm a straight talker. I'm modern Britain. I hate woke. Suella's been cancelled. I'm the change candidate. Here's good old Dave from the past.
It's the flailing nonsense of a man with bad concussion.
The Tories are running out of time. And they look utterly lost as to what their strategy is - continuity or change, populist right or reassuringly centrist.
A Labour rebellion on Israel with one household name taking part is small fry in comparison.
I don't think I have ever seen such appalling brutality against children so openly filmed and documented real time in Gaza every day..
Apparently the next cunning wheeze is to abandon the HRA.
Hurrah!!!
Lib Dems Official opposition on 44.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=19&LAB=46&LIB=11&Reform=10&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.5&SCOTLAB=33.5&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=34&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
Sunak is not a man for hard fights. He liked the performative right wing ness of Rwanda but was never really committed to the hard nasty stuff of getting it through - leave the ECHR, tell the UN to fuck off, enact primary legislation to squash the Supreme Court
And of course it is totally fine to believe that leaving the ECHR is a terrible idea (I can see the logic even if I disagree) but you either choose one or the other. Sunak wanted both
As @Cookie put it the other day - better than anyone - the government is in the truly dreadful position of looking and sounding like a populist right wing government (and getting all the shit from that) but not actually doing anything right wing (so not getting any of the credit for hard but productive policies)
It was fucked from that moment.
Your life must be exhausting. Chill for a bit. Maybe get a dog.
Clever, if cynical politics by the SNP.
Do you think the children of Gaza will be helped by her resignation?
Typical leftie. You don't make the poor richer by making the rich poorer. You don't help the children of Gaza by making the children of the UK worse off.
AP (via Seattle Times) - New Hampshire defies national Democrats’ new calendar and sets the presidential primary for Jan. 23
CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — New Hampshire’s secretary of state on Wednesday scheduled the state’s presidential primaries for Jan. 23, 2024, extending its century-old streak of going first despite national Democrats’ efforts to overhaul the nominating calendar.
State law requires New Hampshire’s Republican and Democratic primaries to be held at least seven days before any similar contest and gives the secretary of state sole authority to set the date. Like his predecessor did for decades, Secretary of State David Scanlan waited for the dust to settle in other states before announcing his decision.
“New Hampshire has a tradition, and New Hampshire has a law, and both the tradition and the law were going to be followed no matter what,” he said.
Republicans will kick off the nominating process with the Iowa caucus on Jan. 15, 2024. New Hampshire’s primary eight days later will be a crucial opportunity for GOP candidates to show they can remain competitive against former President Donald Trump, the early front-runner for their party’s presidential nomination. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in particular has put New Hampshire at the center of his strategy.
Iowa’s Democrats also will caucus on Jan. 15, 2024, but not release the presidential results immediately to comply with new party rules sought by President Joe Biden, who argued Black and other minority voters should play a larger, earlier role. Iowa and New Hampshire are each more than 90% white. . . .
The Democratic National Committee approved a new calendar with a primary in South Carolina, which has a large Black population, on Feb. 3, 2024, followed three days later by Nevada. The schedule also moves Michigan into the group of early states voting before Super Tuesday on March 5, 2024, when most of the rest of the country holds primaries.
There will be 24 Republicans on the ballot in New Hampshire and 21 Democrats. Biden won’t appear on the New Hampshire ballot and isn’t planning to campaign there, though some of the state’s top Democrats are organizing a write-in campaign backing his reelection bid. Scanlan, a Republican, called Biden’s decision a “sad choice.” . . .
I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out?
Flint knapper as surprise late entrant?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQlByoPdG6c
Probably an election would see a return of some Con/Ref and Con/DK voters, though I this will be far from all of them, while I'd also expect Lab to consolidate some of the LD/Grn vote, or for it to redistribute more efficiently.
I certainly don't think it implausible that Starmer could win bigger than Blair, though it's odds-against at the moment (and that's assuming that the SNP hold on to a decent number in Scotland).
Specifically I am in this hotel. A snip at £2154 a night. Luckily I am working for the gazette so on a freebie. It is outstanding
https://shintamani.com/wild/
is he going to get away with watching the Celtic game on his taxpayer funded iPad?
The Tories' big challenge, to which no one yet seems to have found the answer, is to change this relentless trend:
Ahahahahahaha
https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1723623097331302688
Obviously not being widely reported here, cos narrative.
Word is that they are close to agreeing a three day "ceasefire" in exchange for 50 hostages released, plus increases in international aid and release of some Palestinian prisoners. I haven't seen this reported here, either.
Sunak has a bigger threat to his right (cf Canada), and... he's not as good at politics as JMexPM.
NEW:
*A group of Tory MPs met at the 5 Hertford Street private members club in Mayfair this week where they agreed to send no confidence letters in Rishi Sunak and try to coordinate more from colleagues in a plot to remove the prime minister*
My prior visit before that one was in 2008 so yeah, many changes
I first came to Cambodia in the late 1990s when it was still shattered from the Khmer Rouge
Now I am eating the best chocolate granola of my life, it is freshly made and wrapped in a banana leaf
It makes sense of why Maoism has remained popular in so many parts of the world.
The juxtaposition of the book, and the location, and the luxury food item was too photogenic to resist
I’ve also got Frank Dikotter’s “the Cultural Revolution” on audio - so total immersion in the subject
It was Tory MPs who decided to get rid of Boris NOT Tory members and it is Tory MPs who will face the punishment for that, on the latest polls over half of them, maybe even 3/4 of them, will lose their seats.
If that is the case you can be assured Tory members will pick the most hardline rightwinger they can find as leader in Opposition to win back voters lost to Reform, they would even pick Farage if they had the chance
🚨EXC: Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are on the brink of approving plans to cut inheritance tax next week
Discussing cut to 40% rate. Treasury’s deemed it’s not inflationary so✔️
Final decision comes next week…but source familiar says “likely”. Let’s see
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1724906055073964177
You STILL hear terrible stories, here, from Khmer Rouge days. My guide yesterday, Changan, casually mentioned that he was 7 when the Khmer Rouge were overthrown. He was living in a children’s camp, separated from his parents (all kids were forcibly taken from their families aged 5, for indoctrination)
The Khmer Rouge guards fled and he set off to walk across the country to find his parents. He still vividly remembers walking through fields “strewn with corpses”
I mean, my God. What do you say? I didn’t say much
Maoism like Islamism has an appeal that we need to understand if it is to be defeated. An economic system that is endemically corrupt and excludes the poor is very vulnerable to such revolutions, as Chiang and a number of Middle East authoritarians found out.
Social and economic justice are needed for order to be sustained. Otherwise bloody Revolution follows.
Massive headlines. Almost fuck all difference.
Probably piss about with some exceptions to make it neutral.
Next!
Hmmm....
Which one was the Tory Gain, btw - if we know?
Refuse to fund NHS recovery, and make life harder for disabled people, in order to do something for the richest 5% of households who pay Inheritance Tax.
That'll help. Alex was probably busy honing the Cd of his coiffure when he wrote that sentence.
Interviewer: "Mr Sunak, how much inheritance tax will your children save from this tax cut?"
Sunak: "This isn't about me, this is about the aspiration of families across the c -- "
Interviewer (interrupting): "Isn't it true that this tax cut would reduce your children's inheritance tax bill by £200 million?"
Sunak: "No, that isn't right. Thanks to the way we have structured our finances we hope that their inheritance tax bill will be zero, and so this tax cut will only benefit those mugs who haven't employed tax accountants to help them with their estate planning."
I agree on Maoism. It needs to be understood - apparently brutal and violent - yet it has had worldwide appeal. I want to know more
Reduced Inheritance tax is really going to help people seeing 70%+ rates of tax as they hit the £50,000 and £100,000 wage barriers.
For reference I quit a contract this week because if I worked one more day I hit that magic £100,000 point - it simply wasn't worth the stress for pittance I would have got for the next 2 months..
That Islamic party is coming soon, with plenty of disaffected councillors and maybe a couple of MPs ready to get involved. An absolute disaster for the country
I’m not so sure. There are enough self-interested voters out there who’ll lap up tax cuts even if it means someone else (it’s always someone else) loses out on public services or benefits. At this juncture tax cuts are probably the only hand they have left to play. Basic bribery.
FWIW my Autumn statement predictions included cutting or abolishing IHT so from a purely professional point of view I’d like to see this happening to price my prescience.
plus HYUFD (who alongside Leon) appears to be the sole members of the focus groups the tory party is using will have orgasms over a reduction in inheritance tax..
Given the Tories are currently in the twenties, at best, it would take a series of unlikely events to move their support back up to 43%.
My contention is that relative support for parties is static, in the absence of anything to change it.
Events and actions over the next year might increase Tory support, or they may depress it further. To some extent that depends on what the Tories do, and to some extent it depends on events outside of their control. There's no underlying force that is continuing to act to continue the apparent trend.
I find it hilarious that you are unable to grasp this simple relationship between cause and effect, and yet you are always self-identifying as the smartest person in the room.
In reality, it's a series of step-changes, each of which knocked 5-8% off the Tory share:
i. Barnard Castle
ii. Paterson / Partygate breaks
iii. Truss.
Truss actually knocked a good deal more than that off by the end but some of it was only temporary.
There is, however, a serious risk for the Tories that their behaviour now is kicking off another step-change down; that infighting and incompetence, set against a backdrop of a winter NHS crisis, could peel off even more voters.
Even so, the pendulum will swing back a bit towards the election, as the Tories consolidate some of the DK/Ref switchers back into their camp.