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A difficult day for Starmer as well – politicalbetting.com
A difficult day for Starmer as well – politicalbetting.com
Labour confirms eight shadow ministers have left Keir Starmer's frontbench tonight over ceasefire vote.Including, Paula Barker, Rachel Hopkins, Afzal Khan, Sarah Owen, Jess Phillips, Yasmin Qureshi, Naz Shah and Andy Slaughter.
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This country is in deep trouble.
Aaron Bastani
@AaronBastani
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3m
Aspire winning an MP just became that little bit more likely....
More seriously: you basically saying "this chimes with my existing beliefs". Which is, after all, how human brains work
And - sure - I'd probably find it more plausible (and more fitting with my existing beliefs) if it said the Civil Service were lazy and only ever did the minimum of what was asked of them.
But this piece does not chime with what I know about how the civil service operates. Maybe I'm wrong, but without it being backed up by - you know - someone going on the record, then I will err on the side of caution.
* And, yes I do know how it is measured for national income reporting perspectives, but that isn't going to help here
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/15/nevada-false-electors-trump-investigation-00127369
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancho_Aréna
Dyed in the wool socialists would prefer to keep their hands clean and carp about your lot remaining in power and trashing anything else they haven't yet trashed.
forget domestic concerns, what we need to get right is Rwanda...
EDIT: At least Starmer recognised we can't vote a fix for Palestine, unlike Richi
Anyway, the votes are meaningless, and those voting for a ceasefire are not acting in some deeply unprincipled way on the whole. There are no good options in Israel/Gaza, and those voting for a ceasefire are not SFAICS saying that Hamas is all good and IDF all bad.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill
And his proposal was laughed out of the chamber.
🌹 Lab 46% (+2)
🌳 Con 19% (-4)
🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1)
➡️ Reform 10% (+2)
🌍 Greens 8% (+1)
🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
There’s not a single grown-up among them, is there? It’s government by the smallest, pettiest, thickest individuals our country has had the misfortune to produce.
27pt Labour lead
🌹 Lab 46% (+2)
🌳 Con 19% (-4)
🔶 Lib Dem 9% (-1)
➡️ Reform 10% (+2)
🌍 Greens 8% (+1)
🎗️ SNP 5% (+1)
Via @FindoutnowUK
2,198 GB adults, 13-14 Nov
https://creation.com/does-the-bible-say-pi-equals-3
@HXValley
"The beaches are open, everyone is having a wonderful time, and the town council has just passed a motion barring ANY Great Whites from within 3 miles of the coast."
Largely swallowed up by the Rwanda news and Suella - it's not had/going to have the days of psychodrama in the press that it might have had in a slow news week.
A rebellion of 58 is pretty large - but Blair, with an admittedly larger PLP faced similar sized ones in his first term over Welfare Reform. And this is an emotive issue where voting for the nice sounding performative thing has virtually no consequences. Even those who've resigned will be back soon enough if Starmer and his team rate them. Only so much arm twisting or bribing sceptical MPs whips could do, or would be prepared to.
Plus, as much as the left are enjoying bashing Starmer because they think they've found an issue which recaptures Corbynism's essence, they might be overplaying their hand. It was notable that even some who are pretty right on with all that expressed disgust at Corbyn's ludicrous appearance on Piers Morgan.
OK, I might have been wrong. My assumption was that any move Rishi made from his perfectly calibrated equilibrium would lose roughly as many votes on one side as it gained on the other.
I didn't allow for the possibility that he would manage to annoy both ends of his coalition at the same time.
(See Rwanda, where Rishi looks set to piss off the centrists by continuing to talk about the madness and the right by failing to deport anyone.)
Keir Starmer: "I regret that some colleagues felt unable to support the position tonight. But I wanted to be clear about where I stood, and where I will stand. Leadership is about doing the right thing. That is the least the public deserves. And the least that leadership demands.
I mean: Lord David Cameron. FFS
On the same day you sack a totemic figure of the right, guaranteeing civil war in the party
Two more polls like this and he’s in deep shit. Because, the Tories have nothing to lose. They are facing actual extinction. Under 50 seats
Kick out Sunak put a proper right winger in and go down fighting with, at least, some honour
Arguing for humanitarian pauses is realistically the best one can hope for.
If it didn't happen over this, there would be something else. And if that failed, she'd quit, claiming that she had been stymied in all her attempts to limit immigration by Number 10.
The Labour lead is less important at this point than the Tory lead over Reform / Lib Dems on either flank.
It isn't. A huge responsibility rests on the top tier of centrist Labour MPs to provide a party capable of modestly decent government.
Events of this week (what do you mean, it's only Wednesday?) have left Sunak in a worse position than he was in on Monday.
But sacking Suella was still the right, necessary thing to do- partly because of her likely response to today's news, but also because she has got to the "child who wants to be expelled/employee who want to be sacked" stage, and that always ends badly.
But also, Sunak doesn't seem to have the courage of his convictions, whatever they are. Centre rightist (bringing back Dave, saying 'oh well never mind' about Rwanda) would work. So would doubling down on 2016 populism.
Whatever the f&@k he's trying to do (I'm reminded of the Moleswoeth 'you boys may think I'm soft, but I'm hard... Dashed hard' cartoon) is somehow the worst of both worlds.
This can't last another year, can it?
Good news is you've got a 27pp poll lead. Bad news is some old fart on PB.com isn't prepared to shell out a fiver from his pension.
So I'll prepare your tearful resignation speech, shall I?
Earlier one might have argued that it was a great opportunity for Starmer to push out the last of the Momentum crew by forcing them to take a stand commensurate with their obsession with Palestinian politics to the exclusion of actual UK politics, but after weeks of bombing we’re far beyond that point now & it’s only going to get worse from here on in as the deaths on the ground continue to mount.
Also: let her own the Rwanda decision and let her try and fix it. Instead he sacked her three days BEFORE the judgment so she looks completely vindicated and he gets all the shit
He’s dragged the Tories to the edge of a mighty cliff. He’s really really bad at politics. Appoint Cameron, sack Braverman? Genius, not
Anyway I'm more concerned by SNP back at 5%, that should be more worrying for Keir as well - at this rate he would win anyway, but his job will be much easier if he can gain back loads in Scotland.
I am appalled by the indiscipline of the labour rebels. They stand on the brink of actually being able to do something for the first time in 13 years and they throw their toys out of the pram over words. Idiots.
Giving Rishi a twirling wedgie during the King's Speech?
Proposing the abolition the Royal Family because they're all bloody Germans?
Because she had got to the point that she was prepared to do whatever it took to be sacked. There's no good way of managing people like that.
At the moment he's in the worst of all worlds, as liberal centre right and right voters see the noisy (un)populism, and the noisy populists see a failed establishment full of hot air.
That would stop Cameron annoying the Remainers by his mere continued existence, and also win back the right wing votes he is losing to Reform. Could be a game changer
Labour 528 seats
Tories 47
Lib Dems 35
SNP 19
And on that result Rishi would be losing his seat so would be straight off to California..
She was also absolutely right on a series of crucial issues and - more importantly - was apparently the only Tory politician with the balls to say this stuff out loud. She was - as I say - totemic
So he sacked her. It is beyond pathetic
(Note: I can't put SNP % in without doing a full Scottish prediction, so it's defaulted to 4%)
She got sacked for being shit at her job.