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What are Ministers for? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    edited November 2023
    Great header.

    Two points:

    1 - I am curious about the permission (or denial of permission) to carry out Private Prosecutions, and how it worked in these cases.

    I thought they were available to anyone so inclined, and used regularly in this mode by eg the RSPCA (who seem to have come so many croppers that it damaged their reputation, and they essentially stopped doing them).

    And also available to statutory Prosecuting Authorities on the official list, which as of today does not include afaics the Post Office. Did they use the 'private citizen' route, or did they used to be on the list?

    (List of Prosecuting Authorities at bottom of this page:
    https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/relations-other-prosecuting-agencies-and-prosecutors-convention)

    2 - This is in the bracket as the underlying and very basic issue of all Govts since the year dot failing to take responsibility for innocent people imprisoned by miscarriages of justice, and a decades long refusal to compensate properly.

    Made worse by a policy that accommodation in prison over the years of false imprisonment be paid for by the victim out of any compensation award, which can imo only be properly described as "evil".
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Scott_xP said:

    @breeallegretti

    Lee Anderson says ministers should go ahead and “put planes in the air” to Rwanda anyway.

    When I asked if he was suggesting ignoring the Supreme Court ruling, the Tory deputy chairman said govt should “ignore the laws and send them straight back”.

    Rishi will be delighted. He has been looking for a reason to sack Thirty Pee. His incitement is probably decent grounds.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    So if the Rwanda policy was for the UK to process asylum claims for people to come to the UK in Rwanda, with successful claimants brought back to the UK, then the government would have been given the go ahead.

    As we keep pointing out, the Rwanda plan is incomparable to any other proposal or implementation elsewhere because it is a one way trip. And that has been ruled screamingly illegal on a variety of fronts.

    Yep, that is the key point. Unfortunately the roughly 80% success rate of asylum applications means that allowing them back into the UK would massively reduce the deterrence factor. So much so that I would suggest it would not be worth it. But it wouldn't surprise me if the government did something like this if only to save a little face.
    Do you know why our acceptance rate is multiple times that of other countries, is it down to fact that they don't get processed for years and so hard to then turf them out.
    Is it Malcolm? I don't know the statistics for it. But if you are from Iran, for example, and are gay then you are at risk of serious oppression including risk to life. That's roughly 10% of the population of Iran for a starter as well as a large number who will inevitably try it on.
    10% of the population of Iran are gay?
    10% is a low number based on what I see on TV (every show with members of the public will feature a gay couple, even if there are only five or six couples or contestants. Now this, I am sure, if TV lands way of being inclusive, but it does tend to skew perceptions a bit. I am not aware of the proportion of gay adults in the UK, but I'd be surprised if it was over 3%.

    In Iran? Who knows.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @PippaCrerar

    Tory right-wing MPs now pushing for emergency legislation to be tabled within days to make the Rwanda scheme work - arguing that parliamentary sovereignty trumps any ruling from Supreme Court.

    Best thing for the country right now might be an ungovernable Tory Party in open civil war, unable to find anyone to command confidence of the house, and requiring a GE to sweep them all away.

    We just need some new brooms now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    BREAKING As many as six Conservative MPs are set to submit letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak’s leadership of the Conservative Party this week, rebel Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells @GBNEWS. Tune in now.




    The absurdity of Brexit neatly encapsulated in the words Dame Andrea Jenkyns

    How did that deranged clown become a dame?
  • Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    BREAKING As many as six Conservative MPs are set to submit letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak’s leadership of the Conservative Party this week, rebel Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells @GBNEWS. Tune in now.




    The absurdity of Brexit neatly encapsulated in the words Dame Andrea Jenkyns

    How did that deranged clown become a dame?
    Take a wild guess...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    theakes said:

    Ukraine, yes remember that place! Looks as if something is happening on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Ukranian's sound optimistic but have thrown a general silence around the situation, something they normally do when they are advancing..

    It does appear that invaders have left themselves very short of men in Kherson region, assuming that the river would be a barrier to the defenders. They’ve sent everyone to defend Tokmak and Vasylivka, and left themselves open to attack across the Dnipro.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    How did that deranged clown become a dame?

    She backed BoZo
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    LOL

    LOL

    LOL
  • Scott_xP said:

    @breeallegretti

    Lee Anderson says ministers should go ahead and “put planes in the air” to Rwanda anyway.

    When I asked if he was suggesting ignoring the Supreme Court ruling, the Tory deputy chairman said govt should “ignore the laws and send them straight back”.

    Rishi will be delighted. He has been looking for a reason to sack Thirty Pee. His incitement is probably decent grounds.
    The party of law and order in action yet again.

    Seems there will be a civil war after the GE to decide whether they go full Trump or start to steer back to the centre ground.
  • Leon said:

    MASSIVE BATS EVERYWHERE

    Didn't Rishi promise to Stop The Bats?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,073

    Hurrah for an independent judiciary.

    Unelected judges deciding domestic policy and an unelected Lord deciding foreign policy. Hurrah for democracy.
    Democracy in the UK is deciding who is in the legislature, not the government.
    • The legislature creates and changes the law.
    • The government decides on tax and spend and the deployment of the armed forces.
    • The judiciary decides if laws are broken and the punishment thereof.
    The government can decide on whatever foreign policy it damn well pleases but it has to obey the law. If it dislikes the law it has to change it. It doesn't have the authority to go "poo, the law doesn't apply to me, I'm special I am"

    One of the biggest flaws of the Shitstorm Administrations (May, Boris, Truss, Sunak) is that they genuinely don't get this.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    theakes said:

    Ukraine, yes remember that place! Looks as if something is happening on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Ukranian's sound optimistic but have thrown a general silence around the situation, something they normally do when they are advancing..

    Sounds very dangerous. The international community should call for an immediate ceasefire.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    edited November 2023
    Off-topic aside.

    The Ashfield Election at the next GE is getting even less clear.

    Zadrozny and Hollis are now pursuing a Trumpist strategy of trying to move their criminal trial out of the local jurisdiction, apparently to the West Midlands.

    I wonder if the Z game is to delay it until after the Election?

  • Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    15m
    'A fully fledged government crisis': Stop-the-boats pledge in tatters | ITV News

    https://twitter.com/Peston
  • Dave's not going to be happy if we have a snap 'who governs Britain' election.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Scott_xP said:

    @breeallegretti

    Lee Anderson says ministers should go ahead and “put planes in the air” to Rwanda anyway.

    When I asked if he was suggesting ignoring the Supreme Court ruling, the Tory deputy chairman said govt should “ignore the laws and send them straight back”.

    Rishi will be delighted. He has been looking for a reason to sack Thirty Pee. His incitement is probably decent grounds.
    I’m, this was primary legislation - the problem is that international treaties and international courts trump the legislation.

    Basically the people calling for this are idiots and their demands show how thick they are
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    She at least has a vote on the matter. Michael Howard is quite a distance from relevancy.
    I imagine he remains a member of the Conservative Party and thus has a vote on the candidate MPs put forward. His view is thus of the same import as any other member outside the PCP.
    I don’t see them being quoted though.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
    No, the Privately educated dominate our establishment, including the medical profession.




    The problem is much simpler.
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
    No, the Privately educated dominate our establishment, including the medical profession.




    The problem is much simpler.
    Certainly the dominant culture on PB of privately educated men doesn't want to accept that the system that they benefited personally from is a large part of the problem of entitlement.
    Read the header.

    The same pattern can be seen in many, many places. The NCB was run by the very opposite of the private educated - yet they were captured by the same mentality we see causing the problems time and again.
    Houldsworth was from Heckmondwyke Grammar, Ezra, Monmouth School, McGregor, George Watson College , Edinburgh. and Haslam, Bolton School.

    Only Robens and Bowman went to Scumbag College.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,073
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    BREAKING As many as six Conservative MPs are set to submit letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak’s leadership of the Conservative Party this week, rebel Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells @GBNEWS.

    Six! Six whole MPs! Sunak is doomed! Doomed I tell ye! Six whole anonymous people are so teed off they've gone and signed a whole letter! Each! It was harsh, I tell ye! It was sarky and everything! Some even used CAPITAL LETTERS INAPPROPRIATELY!

    :):):):)

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited November 2023
    So the Tory vice chair suggests breaking the law . In any other government this would be a sackable offence .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,709
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    TimS said:

    Thoughts on the next stop the boats policy now Rwanda is gone (and Rwanda was never going to fix things alone)?

    - Offshore processing - not permanent relocation - somewhere? Expensive
    - some kind of physical barrier / pushback? Humanitarian risks
    - Spend shed loads with France and tighten up policing? Probably effective but a slow burner
    - Process claims at source / in France? Not going to happen
    - Join Schengen so people can come legally on large boats and trains? Not going to happen
    - cross fingers and hope for the best?

    Make it easier to enter UK legitimately so no need for boats and then process vey quickly so no need for hotels. Identify barriers to fast processing and remove them. It's not rocket science.
    This is in fact Labour policy (I heard Stephen Kinnock on it in very similar terms).
    We never deport anyone. If we do lefties start weeping on planes

    That said, at some point soon a western nation WILL start deportations on a massive scale. It could be America under Trump. Or Sweden or Austria maybe

    Certainly be happening in Trump-land if he wins...


    "As several of my Times colleagues reported last week, he hopes to institute a program of mass detainment and deportation of undocumented immigrants."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/opinion/trump-stephen-miller-immigration.html
  • nico679 said:

    So the Tory vice chair suggests breaking the law . In any other government this would be a sackable offence .

    Give it time
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Dave's not going to be happy if we have a snap 'who governs Britain' election.

    He got his lordship. What more does he want?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    nico679 said:

    So the Tory vice chair suggests breaking the law . In any other government this would be a sackable offence .

    Indeed in most other jobs
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Ton up for Kholi, his 50th ODI century. That’s a great mark.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @AVMikhailova

    🚨A major row is brewing in the Commons

    Labour MPs putting down a King’s Speech amendment on banning conversion therapy - criticising gvt for not including it

    Tory whips telling their MPs that they will *lose the whip* if they abstain

    Huge anger from liberal Tory MPs
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    So the Tory vice chair suggests breaking the law . In any other government this would be a sackable offence .

    Give it time
    Sunak won’t want to annoy the right more so I expect nothing will happen . It’s a busy news day so he might get away with it .
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    BREAKING As many as six Conservative MPs are set to submit letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak’s leadership of the Conservative Party this week, rebel Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells @GBNEWS.

    Six! Six whole MPs! Sunak is doomed! Doomed I tell ye! Six whole anonymous people are so teed off they've gone and signed a whole letter! Each! It was harsh, I tell ye! It was sarky and everything! Some even used CAPITAL LETTERS INAPPROPRIATELY!

    :):):):)

    Do we get a running total, or just told when it reaches 40?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Barnesian said:

    TimS said:

    Thoughts on the next stop the boats policy now Rwanda is gone (and Rwanda was never going to fix things alone)?

    - Offshore processing - not permanent relocation - somewhere? Expensive
    - some kind of physical barrier / pushback? Humanitarian risks
    - Spend shed loads with France and tighten up policing? Probably effective but a slow burner
    - Process claims at source / in France? Not going to happen
    - Join Schengen so people can come legally on large boats and trains? Not going to happen
    - cross fingers and hope for the best?

    Make it easier to enter UK legitimately so no need for boats and then process vey quickly so no need for hotels. Identify barriers to fast processing and remove them. It's not rocket science.
    where are they all going to live given we are short of housing already and skint supposedly. In London they are throwing homeless people's tents into bin lorries.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    nico679 said:

    So the Tory vice chair suggests breaking the law . In any other government this would be a sackable offence .

    Give it time
    Indeed. I suspect Rishi will see it as a neatly carved opportunity to get rid of this odious pig-shit thick loudmouth.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Dave's not going to be happy if we have a snap 'who governs Britain' election.

    He got his lordship. What more does he want?
    Actually he doesn't yet. Not until the next Privy Council meeting officially I think
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    nico679 said:

    I have huge respect for the UK Supreme Court and we should be so thankful that it remains free of political interference.

    bollox
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    A
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
    No, the Privately educated dominate our establishment, including the medical profession.




    The problem is much simpler.
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    If the Government is looking for a workaround, the trick is to ensure that they are intercepted by Royal Navy ships before they hit UK dry land/shore. That way they never fall under UK jurisdiction and the SC writ doesn't hold sway to ships at sea.

    I also need to point out that the US are decommissioning thirty-odd nearly-new Littoral Command Ships because they don't have the range for long-range combat

    A combination of helicopters and 30-odd LCSs should be more that enough to set up a 24-hr conveyor from UK to Rwanda/wherever, with intercept/processing/first-aid/disembarkation without ever falling under SC jurisdiction.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Littoral_combat_ship

    Taking that seriously for a moment :smile:, I don't think that even our landlocked Civil Servants are crazy enough to fall for it, TBH.

    The LCS programme has been such a disaster that it has been cancelled before even getting properly started (and has been kept afloat by Congress in the teeth of USN opposition). They have crews of 70 and operating costs in excess of £50-60 million per ship per year.

    The USA are looking for a rich, but stupid, mark to palm them off onto.

    It would be a worse deal than 25-year-old moth-eaten destroyers for bases done in 1940.
    Think historically.

    Hire the Libyan Coastguard to patrol the Channel.

    Any migrants they kidnap will be taken back to Libya, and imprisoned there. For Libyan farmers to bid on their labour - literally auctioned in the town square.
    We might get a decent deal on the "Libyan Coastguard rebadged as unofficial militia" now that aiui the European Commission no longer employ them.
    If you believe they have been refunded vs the funding made more indirect… what colour of bridge would you like to buy?

    Unless we are to believe that they are capturing migrants for LOLs
  • viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    BREAKING As many as six Conservative MPs are set to submit letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak’s leadership of the Conservative Party this week, rebel Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells @GBNEWS.

    Six! Six whole MPs! Sunak is doomed! Doomed I tell ye! Six whole anonymous people are so teed off they've gone and signed a whole letter! Each! It was harsh, I tell ye! It was sarky and everything! Some even used CAPITAL LETTERS INAPPROPRIATELY!

    :):):):)

    What's their logic? Sunak put Braverman, their hero and standard bearer, in at Home Office to sort out Rwanda policy and get it through the system.

    She fails and delivers a mess that is unlawful but has been sacked anyway for other issues.

    The mess is on them and their world view that details dont matter only slogans and wedges and what gets a whoop down in the lounge at the Duck and Hate Marcher.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited November 2023
    malcolmg said:

    nico679 said:

    I have huge respect for the UK Supreme Court and we should be so thankful that it remains free of political interference.

    bollox
    So you’d rather have the US model then ?

  • Yvette did tell them, repeatedly, that the policy would not work in practical terms never mind the rest of the issues around it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    I have a butler. His name, is seems, is Wooter

    I am exercising massive and inhuman restraint so I don’t say, for the lolz

    Wooter? Some ‘ooter!

    He is extremely resourceful. I imagine if I did say that he would disappear off to some hillside jungle hamlet and actually find me some cocaine

  • Scott_xP said:

    Dave's not going to be happy if we have a snap 'who governs Britain' election.

    He got his lordship. What more does he want?
    Actually he doesn't yet. Not until the next Privy Council meeting officially I think
    Maybe I have misremembered this but I thought it was the case that an ex-PM will go to the Lords unless they opt not to for the time being?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    edited November 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    @AVMikhailova

    🚨A major row is brewing in the Commons

    Labour MPs putting down a King’s Speech amendment on banning conversion therapy - criticising gvt for not including it

    Tory whips telling their MPs that they will *lose the whip* if they abstain

    Huge anger from liberal Tory MPs

    Tory MPs have converted about eight million Tory 2019 voters into non Tory voters. It is only fair that some therapy is available for these failed MPs.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    DavidL said:

    Hurrah for an independent judiciary.

    This is why the UK is a great place for international business.

    They know our judiciary will put the government back in their box when appropriate.

    Yes - I think I’m most proud of this fact. At least one aspect of our system works
    The rule of law is almost certainly the largest single difference between the UK (and most other western countries) and the likes of Argentina as described by @Alanbrooke in his recent thread header. The economic benefits of such judicial independence are massively underrated.
    Why then are we an indebted basket case of a country, clue soft marks always get taken for a ride.
  • Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    6m
    💥👀 So,,,c60 MPs in Commonsense/New Cons group + another 20 MPs would back leaving ECHR

    Asked a v senior former cab min if, in the event of the PM deciding not to pursue leaving ECHR (if emergency law fail) whether he’d face a confidence vote, they said: “That’s very plausible”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Sandpit said:

    Ton up for Kholi, his 50th ODI century. That’s a great mark.

    "Glue" for most of the innings, acceleration & out.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    There's a neat symmetry of completely out of touchness with reality between the Tory right "just ignore the law and send them on the planes anyway" and the Labour left "tell Israel to stop attacking Hamas and let them keep their tunnels".
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    NEW THREAD
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Pulpstar said:

    theakes said:

    Ukraine, yes remember that place! Looks as if something is happening on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Ukranian's sound optimistic but have thrown a general silence around the situation, something they normally do when they are advancing..

    Last I heard is Ukraine controls Krynki and are looking to expand the bridgehead.
    Russia is lobbing huge numbers of gliding bombs in the general direction. Some even land quite close to Ukrainian troops.

    The Russian bloggers are getting concerned. Ukraine is getting short on ammo, but whilstever they use their shells on drones to take out high value target, they are getting a much better bang for their limited bucks. Another big day of artillery losses for Russia today - 58 pus 2 MLRS. If these are disproportionately around the Dnipro region, that is a big problem for Russia.

    Russia is sending in huge numbers of 15-man squads, often without any vehicle support. It is leading to 800+ dead a day, but they have gained a few hundred yards in places. That said, it is still unclear whether this effort by the Ukrainians is a real push, or just to get the Ruussians to move ther limited pieces around the board.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Sunak is screwed - Rwanda being viable would have given him a defence against claims he was not doing anything on illegal migration. If he had a plan B we'd have done it by now.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @breeallegretti

    Lee Anderson says ministers should go ahead and “put planes in the air” to Rwanda anyway.

    When I asked if he was suggesting ignoring the Supreme Court ruling, the Tory deputy chairman said govt should “ignore the laws and send them straight back”.

    Rishi will be delighted. He has been looking for a reason to sack Thirty Pee. His incitement is probably decent grounds.
    The party of law and order in action yet again.

    Seems there will be a civil war after the GE to decide whether they go full Trump or start to steer back to the centre ground.
    If they're lucky they'll do a Labour post-2010, going for the ineffectual comfort blanket (can't think who this will be, maybe Cleverly, though describing him as such seems a bit harsh. Perhaps Badenoch, with Cleverly as David M) before smashing into the full-fat Trump mentalist wing. That's my optimistic view of the Tory future.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    If I am reading this right even if the UK quit or abrogated every single international treaty the UK still couldn’t have its sovereign way because of some nebulous “customary international law”?

    Where is this law? Who wrote it? Who adjudicates? What fucking nonsense

    WHAT WOULD CROMWELL DO
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:

    @breeallegretti

    Lee Anderson says ministers should go ahead and “put planes in the air” to Rwanda anyway.

    When I asked if he was suggesting ignoring the Supreme Court ruling, the Tory deputy chairman said govt should “ignore the laws and send them straight back”.

    Gwan, Lee, my son. Show 'em wha' i' means te be Bri'ish.

    What an utter embarrassment that vice semaphoring twat is. As much use as a c*nt full of cold water.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206

    A small drop in interest rates will save me thousands of pounds. That’s all I really care about. My fixed rate expiry in February 2024 beckons…

    That's going to be an ongoing problem for hundreds of thousands of mortgaged home owners. Every month, for as long as interest rates stay higher than the ultra low rates we all got used to, eighty odd thousand people will see their mortgage payments shoot up. Some of them won't be able to afford to live in their home any longer. If sold house prices continue to fall as they look like doing, many will be in negative equity. That dominos into arrears and repossessions (both on the way up). It's going to be a grim 5+years, and Sunak will be off in California enjoying his wife's billions.
    Last data had repossessions flat and tiny numbers. The arrears number is growing a bit, but a lot of those people can probably tread water by going interest only for a bit.
    House prices have dropped back a little, but to land in -ve equity at the moment still requires you to have bought recently with a very small deposit.

    Given that it's now a year since interest rates rocketed, probably 20% of mortgage holders have already rolled over onto a new more expensive deal, and whilst they are obviously hurting it doesn't seem to have unleashed the horsemen of the apocalypse. Unless things get substantially worse for other reasons, now interest rates have stabilised (if at much higher levels), I don't think we'll see much of a further drop in prices and certainly not mass repossessions.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    TimS said:

    Thoughts on the next stop the boats policy now Rwanda is gone (and Rwanda was never going to fix things alone)?

    - Offshore processing - not permanent relocation - somewhere? Expensive
    - some kind of physical barrier / pushback? Humanitarian risks
    - Spend shed loads with France and tighten up policing? Probably effective but a slow burner
    - Process claims at source / in France? Not going to happen
    - Join Schengen so people can come legally on large boats and trains? Not going to happen
    - cross fingers and hope for the best?

    Make it easier to enter UK legitimately so no need for boats and then process vey quickly so no need for hotels. Identify barriers to fast processing and remove them. It's not rocket science.
    This is in fact Labour policy (I heard Stephen Kinnock on it in very similar terms).
    We never deport anyone. If we do lefties start weeping on planes

    That said, at some point soon a western nation WILL start deportations on a massive scale. It could be America under Trump. Or Sweden or Austria maybe
    Has to be a halt called to it at some point, we are the soft marks of soft marks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    So if the Rwanda policy was for the UK to process asylum claims for people to come to the UK in Rwanda, with successful claimants brought back to the UK, then the government would have been given the go ahead.

    As we keep pointing out, the Rwanda plan is incomparable to any other proposal or implementation elsewhere because it is a one way trip. And that has been ruled screamingly illegal on a variety of fronts.

    Yep, that is the key point. Unfortunately the roughly 80% success rate of asylum applications means that allowing them back into the UK would massively reduce the deterrence factor. So much so that I would suggest it would not be worth it. But it wouldn't surprise me if the government did something like this if only to save a little face.
    Do you know why our acceptance rate is multiple times that of other countries, is it down to fact that they don't get processed for years and so hard to then turf them out.
    Is it Malcolm? I don't know the statistics for it. But if you are from Iran, for example, and are gay then you are at risk of serious oppression including risk to life. That's roughly 10% of the population of Iran for a starter as well as a large number who will inevitably try it on.
    10% of the population of Iran are gay?
    10% is a low number based on what I see on TV (every show with members of the public will feature a gay couple, even if there are only five or six couples or contestants. Now this, I am sure, if TV lands way of being inclusive, but it does tend to skew perceptions a bit. I am not aware of the proportion of gay adults in the UK, but I'd be surprised if it was over 3%.

    In Iran? Who knows.
    They can keep their 10% in any case we don't want any Iranians we have more than enough people crammed in as it is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited November 2023
    I think Wooter is the best butler I’ve had since Krunch the Serbian butler on my Baltic Sea Nobu-cruise to St Petersburg where my 21 year old corbynite wife got so drunk on vodka and caviar pairings she smashed up our VIP cabin and smeared borscht on the walls and I gave Krunch €500 and said “please Krunch just make this all go away”

    And he did, like the guy in Pulp Fiction
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Leon said:

    If I am reading this right even if the UK quit or abrogated every single international treaty the UK still couldn’t have its sovereign way because of some nebulous “customary international law”?

    Where is this law? Who wrote it? Who adjudicates? What fucking nonsense

    WHAT WOULD CROMWELL DO

    Cromwell let Jews settle in England and Wales again after several hundred years. Although Shakespeare wrote about them so there must have been some about in pre-Cromwellian times.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Endillion said:

    theakes said:

    Ukraine, yes remember that place! Looks as if something is happening on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Ukranian's sound optimistic but have thrown a general silence around the situation, something they normally do when they are advancing..

    Sounds very dangerous. The international community should call for an immediate ceasefire.
    Yes Russia should abide by International Law, time for a demonstration or two.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited November 2023
    I was hoping the SC wouldn't do this because we will now get a whole bunch of 'lefty woke blob stopping what the people want' ranting and that's one of my most unfavourite things in this world, having to listen to that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    theProle said:

    A small drop in interest rates will save me thousands of pounds. That’s all I really care about. My fixed rate expiry in February 2024 beckons…

    That's going to be an ongoing problem for hundreds of thousands of mortgaged home owners. Every month, for as long as interest rates stay higher than the ultra low rates we all got used to, eighty odd thousand people will see their mortgage payments shoot up. Some of them won't be able to afford to live in their home any longer. If sold house prices continue to fall as they look like doing, many will be in negative equity. That dominos into arrears and repossessions (both on the way up). It's going to be a grim 5+years, and Sunak will be off in California enjoying his wife's billions.
    Last data had repossessions flat and tiny numbers. The arrears number is growing a bit, but a lot of those people can probably tread water by going interest only for a bit.
    House prices have dropped back a little, but to land in -ve equity at the moment still requires you to have bought recently with a very small deposit.

    Given that it's now a year since interest rates rocketed, probably 20% of mortgage holders have already rolled over onto a new more expensive deal, and whilst they are obviously hurting it doesn't seem to have unleashed the horsemen of the apocalypse. Unless things get substantially worse for other reasons, now interest rates have stabilised (if at much higher levels), I don't think we'll see much of a further drop in prices and certainly not mass repossessions.
    Imagine the early fixed rates that were very low will be worst impacted.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited November 2023

    nico679 said:

    The Tory nutjobs now want to ignore UN conventions. Where does it end .

    I think its entirely reasonable to take stock of how the world has changed from 1945 to 2023. I have little doubt that many of those trying to reach Britain have a legal right to asylum. I also have little doubt that many of those trying to reach Britain have no such claim but are trying for a better life for themselves. A more mature debate might look at how best to use such people, who are by their nature the kind of people you want (aspirational, looking to improve their lot). Instead we end up stopping people working and pay huge amounts to house them to do nothing. Its madness.

    But we also have to acknowledge that you cannot simply say - everyone who want to come, can. The rights of the people of the UK have to be involved in the discussion too.
    Sometimes things that are worth doing are hard.

    The laws around refugee status are in part a response to the Holocaust. They are an acknowledgement that making it difficult for Jews and others to flee Germany before WWII was wrong, and if there had been a way for the 12 million victims of Nazi concentration camps to escape, that we should have provided a refuge for them.

    Do we hold to that position, or do we now say that we're only willing to save the first x thousand victims of a potential modern Holocaust each year?

    Bearing in mind that when Jews were trying to flee Germany in 1938, say, they weren't at that point subject to an attempt at genocide.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,073
    edited November 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    viewcode said:

    If the Government is looking for a workaround, the trick is to ensure that they are intercepted by Royal Navy ships before they hit UK dry land/shore. That way they never fall under UK jurisdiction and the SC writ doesn't hold sway to ships at sea.

    Does it? British law still applies to British flagged vessels in territorial waters. Suranne Jones had to solve that murder on a submarine.

    It's not like the glory days of the RN when the Admiralty used to wait for low tide at Wapping to hang larrikins in the intertidal zone beyond landlubber law.

    The UK should pay Wagner to intercept them on Russian flagged vessels, house the fugees on clapped out cruise ships then sail them off to who-gives-a-fuck-where.
    DAMMIT! The Court Martial Appeal Court is under the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court (dafuq??), so you can't bypass them. I could argue that if any offence by a warfighter committed outside the jurisdiction of the UKSC is not liable to the UKSC, but I assume the UKSC would not like that argument :(

    I had a whole fictional process going on in my head. It was magnificent. And now it's worthless. Curse Blair and his constitutional hippy-dippyness. :(

    [EDIT; can't we create a separate Supreme Military Court? Just a little one? It worked so well in Starship Troopers: what could possibly go wrong? :) ]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Court_Martial_Appeal_Court
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    This excellent judgement from the SC is good news all round. It has the following effects:

    It shows that Braverman pursued a policy that broke the government's own laws, as well as being deranged to anyone with a moral compass.

    It enables Sunak (if he has any sense) to say that the idea was OK but implementation is impossible so let's think of other ways to appease the ultra right.

    Most important it enables Starmer to say that whatever anyone's views might be on sending refugees to North Korea or Gaza or indeed anywhere, we need to move on from this unlawful Tory scheme and scapegoat someone else for a change (possibly Etonians) and get migrants picking the soft fruit that benefits junkies can't be bothered to do.

    Finally, it comes just in time for Christmas so that more than 30 (see the judgement) impecunious barristers will be able to buy shoes for their children and gruel for the table to celebrate, toasting the taxpayer in water as they do so. God bless them every one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    nico679 said:

    malcolmg said:

    nico679 said:

    I have huge respect for the UK Supreme Court and we should be so thankful that it remains free of political interference.

    bollox
    So you’d rather have the US model then ?

    I would prefer to have the Court of Session as it was always the top Scottish court rather than the fake English made up Supreme Court to gerrymander Scottish cases personally.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,073

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    BREAKING As many as six Conservative MPs are set to submit letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak’s leadership of the Conservative Party this week, rebel Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells @GBNEWS.

    Six! Six whole MPs! Sunak is doomed! Doomed I tell ye! Six whole anonymous people are so teed off they've gone and signed a whole letter! Each! It was harsh, I tell ye! It was sarky and everything! Some even used CAPITAL LETTERS INAPPROPRIATELY!

    :):):):)

    Do we get a running total, or just told when it reaches 40?
    I assume the press will relay the facts rumours gossip bullshit to us in their usual breathless manner... :lol:
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    DavidL said:

    Hurrah for an independent judiciary.

    This is why the UK is a great place for international business.

    They know our judiciary will put the government back in their box when appropriate.

    Yes - I think I’m most proud of this fact. At least one aspect of our system works
    The rule of law is almost certainly the largest single difference between the UK (and most other western countries) and the likes of Argentina as described by @Alanbrooke in his recent thread header. The economic benefits of such judicial independence are massively underrated.
    Says the judge…

    😂
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,581
    Endillion said:

    Barnesian said:

    Endillion said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    I sense this is probably true

    "Some observations from 24 hours on the ground in Israel.

    I hadn’t fully understood how much the country had so profoundly changed.

    The horrors of October 7 were much worse than I had imagined and have been reported.

    The resolve of the Israeli people and willingness to do what is necessary to defeat this unimaginable evil is much greater than I had expected.

    They are deeply appreciative of American support. But committed to do what they have to do regardless of that support. They are prepared to pay a much higher price than ever before.

    Nothing will be the same again. Israel will emerge stronger under a new leadership and a new generation.

    You cannot appreciate any of this until you’re here and look in their eyes. It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen.

    Khamenei, Hamas and Hezbollah have awakened something that they will live to regret. And many of these monsters won’t live to even experience that regret."

    https://x.com/mdubowitz/status/1724560856153825640?s=20

    The Israelis are going to grind Gaza into dust. Make it uninhabitable. They don't care what America says, they won't care what anyone says. They might easily kill 50,000 or even 100,000 Gazans. They want to exterminate Hamas and its supporters to to the extent Gaza will never produce a fighting force ever again

    And they've only just started. Who knows what this means for the world

    And you wonder why people feel the need to protest against it?
    If only they'd also protested against Hamas's evil actions on 7/10. But no.

    In fact, too many people are in denial about what happened then; a new form of Holocaust denial.
    Time for another bar chart, me thinks. Y-axis starts at zero:




    Do you want to do one for British and German deaths in WW2 as well?

    International law rightly regulates how states conduct wars but it places no upper limit on the number of casualties that can be caused; just on the circumstances in which they can be caused. The key questions are:
    - Did Israel have a legitimate reason to carry out a war against Gaza?
    - If so, are Israel's war aims legitimate and proportionate?
    - If so, are the means of conducting the war legitimate to those war aims?

    FWIW, I think that some Israeli actions probably have been in breach of international law, and that irrespective of whether they were legal or not, they were ill-advised in terms of diplomatic consequence and global opinion.

    We could also ask whether the war aims are achievable - but that would be a question of politics and military analysis, not law.

    There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding about the nature of war. It is not revenge where you are allowed to inflict proportional damage and then have to stop; it is not a computer game or sport, where the actions form some kind of penalty following a foul. War is the enforcement of policy by force, and can continue - within international law - until those policy goals are met.
    I am not in favour of an immediate ceasefire but I am in favour of an immediate end to the bombing.

    Hamas are in 300 miles of tunnels on at least four levels (like a very large coal mine). Bombing residential properties, refugee camps, hospitals hardly touches the Hamas tunnels but kills thousands of innocents.

    The IDF should focus on the tunnels and the supporting ventilation and power supplies in order to achieve their policy goal, even though this risks the 200+ hostages.
    All of that is pretty much what Israel is currently doing already. The bombing has mostly stopped, which is why the death toll is climbing much more slowly than it has been, and the primary focus of the ground troops has been on the tunnels for a couple of weeks now.
    That makes sense. So Israel should declare an end to the bombing and adhere to it. That would take the heat out of the calls for a ceasefire.
    It's cute that you still believe the calls for a ceasefire have anything to do humanitarian concerns.

    Israel's still using its air force and navy as strategic support for the ground troops where necessary - it's just that ground troops are now everywhere in Northern Gaza, so obviously it isn't dropping as much ordnance as it has been.
    Cute?? What a weird thing to write.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    Pulpstar said:

    theakes said:

    Ukraine, yes remember that place! Looks as if something is happening on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Ukranian's sound optimistic but have thrown a general silence around the situation, something they normally do when they are advancing..

    Last I heard is Ukraine controls Krynki and are looking to expand the bridgehead.
    Russia is lobbing huge numbers of gliding bombs in the general direction. Some even land quite close to Ukrainian troops.

    The Russian bloggers are getting concerned. Ukraine is getting short on ammo, but whilstever they use their shells on drones to take out high value target, they are getting a much better bang for their limited bucks. Another big day of artillery losses for Russia today - 58 pus 2 MLRS. If these are disproportionately around the Dnipro region, that is a big problem for Russia.

    Russia is sending in huge numbers of 15-man squads, often without any vehicle support. It is leading to 800+ dead a day, but they have gained a few hundred yards in places. That said, it is still unclear whether this effort by the Ukrainians is a real push, or just to get the Ruussians to move ther limited pieces around the board.
    The Russians keep on shelling civilians in Kherson city. Despite their equipment and ammunition shortages they still prefer to deliberately target civilians.

    I think the Ukrainian cross-Dnipro action is solely intended to push back Russian artillery so that they can no longer target civilians on the right bank.

    I don't believe that the Ukrainians have the logistic or engineering capacity to supply a major cross-Dnipro advance, or the air superiority to protect the obvious pinch points of such a large effort.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Doesn’t look like 400 for India. Almost, but not quite!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Sunak: "we will finalise that [a new treaty with Rwanda] in the light of today's judgement and furthermore, if necessary, I am prepared to revisit our domestic legal framework. Let me assure the house my commitment to stopping the boats is unwavering"
  • Great article Cyclefree, many thanks.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Leon said:

    I sense this is probably true

    "Some observations from 24 hours on the ground in Israel.

    I hadn’t fully understood how much the country had so profoundly changed.

    The horrors of October 7 were much worse than I had imagined and have been reported.

    The resolve of the Israeli people and willingness to do what is necessary to defeat this unimaginable evil is much greater than I had expected.

    They are deeply appreciative of American support. But committed to do what they have to do regardless of that support. They are prepared to pay a much higher price than ever before.

    Nothing will be the same again. Israel will emerge stronger under a new leadership and a new generation.

    You cannot appreciate any of this until you’re here and look in their eyes. It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen.

    Khamenei, Hamas and Hezbollah have awakened something that they will live to regret. And many of these monsters won’t live to even experience that regret."

    https://x.com/mdubowitz/status/1724560856153825640?s=20

    The Israelis are going to grind Gaza into dust. Make it uninhabitable. They don't care what America says, they won't care what anyone says. They might easily kill 50,000 or even 100,000 Gazans. They want to exterminate Hamas and its supporters to to the extent Gaza will never produce a fighting force ever again

    And they've only just started. Who knows what this means for the world

    And you wonder why people feel the need to protest against it?
    If only they'd also protested against Hamas's evil actions on 7/10. But no.

    In fact, too many people are in denial about what happened then; a new form of Holocaust denial.
    The comparison with the Holocaust is offensive, and it is possible to deplore dead, innocent victims on both sides. You complain about protestors ignoring Israeli victims but do not have much to say about the innocent men, women and children killed in retaliation. This is, of course, the tragedy of the Middle East. Endless cycles of revenge.
    "The comparison with the Holocaust is offensive"

    No, because it is exactly the same sort of think. Have you seen Galloways take on all of this? It's exactly what Holocaust deniers do; they throw shade on the numbers, on what happened, and make the victims out to be, at best, non-victims, and at worst, the perpetrators. See also the Sandy Hook deniers, who use the same sort of 'logic'.

    I have said lots about the Palestinians who are being killed. I don't want anyone, on any side, to be killed or injured. But as long as Hamas don't want peace, and release hostages, I don't see what alternative Israel has. Many of the people crying 'ceasefire' actually want, by intent or mistake, 'defeat' of Israel. And given what we saw Hamas do five weeks ago, I'd argue that'd be terrible for the world, let alone Israelis.
This discussion has been closed.