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What are Ministers for? – politicalbetting.com
What are Ministers for? – politicalbetting.com
A key issue in the Post Office (“PO”) scandal is what the government, was doing – or not – while it happened. It is not within the inquiry’s scope, that being written by politicians and civil servants whose behaviour, or that of their predecessors, would otherwise be uncomfortably scrutinised. Let’s look anyway.
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I recommend "The Great Post Office Trial on Radio 4 at 13:45 daily.
"Former Newcastle sub-postmistress accused of stealing £40k in Horizon Post Office scandal furious after missing out on compensation
Newcastle mum Shazia Saddiq said her life was "destroyed" when she was wrongly accused of stealing £40,000 in the Post Office Horizon scandal
In October 2016, Shazia was suspended for 'stealing' money from the Westgate Hill branch and said she was forced to flee her home with her two children after being attacked in the street following the false accusation. Although Shazia was never charged and prosecuted by the Post Office, she says her life was "destroyed" by the scandal."
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/newcastle-horizon-post-office-scandal-27827300
However, my attention is inevitably drawn this morning to the civil war in the Conservative party. Good lord, I’ve seen the GB News People Polling opinion poll giving Labour a 30 point lead
Labour 49%
Cons 19%
LibDems 9%
This is the first poll properly conducted after the, erm, ‘reshuffle’ and Braverman’s onslaught against Sunak. Dates conducted were yesterday.
However, I would suggest some caution. Although internal party civil war never looks good, and although this may reflect Red Wall anger, it may be a rogue poll.
I don’t think many in the blue wall will return. That goose is cooked. But they will lose even more of Boris’ 2019 voters.
"Although internal party civil war never looks good,"
Well, Labour may be facing one of those this week, over Israel/Palestine. It'll be interesting to see how Starmer handles it - and an indication of how he will behave and act when he is PM.
definitely?
I’m not sure you are right about this. There seems to be genuine fury on the right. 11% for Reform UK is probably not to be dismissed too lightly.
I’m not really paying a lot of attention to Labour at the moment and I don’t think the electorate are either. When the governing party are monopolising the UK news, for good or ill, the opposition parties don’t tend to get a look in. If Keir Starmer is sorting out his lefties then it’s probably not going to make much of a splash.
If a change of government is to mean anything, a little more attention to issues, and less to party politics is necessary.
Read the header again - successive governments of all political stripes did absolutely nothing about this.
If you're talking about Cameron's appointment and Suella's sacking, then surely that will have taken place too recently to be reflected in the poll? when was the polling data taken? Even then, I doubt the 'fury' manifests itself in quite that way.
As for Labour; they're having a fair few councillors resign over the Israel/Palestine situation, and might even lose control over councils. That's a sign of fury on the left; and although I doubt it will hurt Starmer's chances much, they're people who won't turn out to support Labour in a campaign - although most of these are in very Labour seats. The real danger for him comes if they form new parties, with candidates standing against Labour. even then though, probably not enough to swing very red seats.
edit: Oh, and good morning. Hope you're hale and hearty.
Should be required reading for every incoming minister.
When it came to Horizon 2, the government pulled out of the project altogether, leaving the PO and Fujitsu to press on alone, and the rest is history.
I expect those in government who knew a little about it were simply pleased to be out from under and thought they had washed their hands of the whole affair.
It would make right Starmer having been a loyal member of Corbyn's cabinet who proposed him for PM had we voted differently.
If he won't do that, then it brings into question his entire judgment.
The fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse
The consequences of this country’s naive help-yourself attitude to foreign takeovers are everywhere.
The pipes that carry the nation’s water to our homes are leaking millions of litres of water every day.
Car manufacturers have repeatedly threatened to pack up and leave unless the state hands over hundreds of millions of pounds in subsidies, and thousands of steel workers have become pawns in this Government’s yearning for a post-Brexit trade deal with India.
Meanwhile, strategic assets such as our airports, ports and even the pipeline that sends gas around the UK are traded like pieces on a Monopoly board without a thought for the wider national interest.
Swathes of this country’s vital infrastructure and key industries have ended up in the hands of unaccountable overseas investors, and private equity companies, who have routinely prioritised dividend payments and executive bonuses over basic yet necessary capital investment.
As a result, the fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse.
Elsewhere, some of the most promising firms in high-growth sectors such as engineering, software, and cyber-security have vanished abroad without so much as a whimper.
Unforgivably, in some instances such as telecoms and attempts to replace our aging fleet of nuclear power stations, we’ve rolled out the red carpet to regimes that are outwardly hostile to Britain and actively seek to harm our interests.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/14/british-industry-foreign-investment-national-security-china/ (£££)
The government (in the shape of Oliver Dowden) is now planning to weaken what little protection we have against foreign takeovers, just months after telling us how well its new takeover regime was performing.
One thing which comes out to me is that individual MPs, through the constituency system raised concerns - and seem to have been crucial to getting things out into the open.
Investigative journalism also has really proved its worth.
The system hasn't worked... but I suspect this never would have come to light without them.
Notable in that the decisions were made deliberately and over a number of years, under governments of all colours, rather than as a reaction to a single tragic event. So much more like the Rotherham child abuse scandal, as opposed to Hillsborough or Aberfan.
Have you thought about writing a book on the Post Office and other scandals over the years?
In short, it's much easier to blame others (be it in an institution or in a report) than take responsibility and, what most people seem to think that means, is resigning when things go wrong - so they rarely if ever do.
What we need to teach is basic values of integrity, and that's what our leaders need to emulate and model - rather than rewarding blind loyalty.
But yes, where was the government? And the opposition? And the mainstream media, the fourth estate, once the scandal started to be reported in Computer Weekly and Private Eye?
I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.
David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.
Sunak’s decision to bring David Cameron back into government is a bold act of surrender. It is an admission that the only way out of the mess the Tories are in might be back the way they came.
Whatever comes next, it won’t bolster Sunak’s claim to be a change candidate, campaigning to end 30 years of failed orthodoxy. As a general election strategy, that already looked far-fetched when it was rehearsed at the Conservative conference last month. Now it is dead. A prime minister driven by a sincere commitment to wiping the political slate clean would use a cabinet reshuffle to showcase talented young MPs, all loyal to their leader’s vision. Cameron filled a high-profile vacancy because no such cadre exists.
Sunak…seems disoriented by his inability to succeed as prime minister and wounded by the country’s ingratitude in failing to recognise the hard work he is putting in on its behalf. There is a ring of personal defeat about the decision to call in Cameron at this stage.
Sunak is harking back to an idea of what the Conservative party was before 2016, before the Brexit revolution. But that isn’t the party he leads. He is borrowing political capital from the Tory past to bail himself out in the present, desperate to stop the slide into electoral insolvency.
I expect her to rapidly disappear post election.
We need to export more as a country, otherwise the incoming money starts buying up shares and property instead.
https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1724368034343641598
Although it does show that we do not want a US-style system...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/15/chelsea-fc-face-new-questions-over-how-roman-abramovich-funded-success
The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.
As for the rest, bringing back a known criminal and perjurer would have been a hundred times worse than bringing back a dodgy lobbyist. Leaving aside the fact that Johnson was an unmitigated fiasco in every major government role he held.
But then, she married Michael Gove, her judgement is clearly not of the best.
Had Rishi not sacked her, it's pretty likely that Suella would have kept upping the ante until he had to.
And your flight seems to have got there too...
To second rate people.
With moves toward privatisation, first under new Labour and eventually delivered by the coalition, came a desire to parachute in senior managers with private sector experience, who supposedly knew how to manage and would cut through all the ‘civil service culture’ that the politicians thought was holding the company back. Hence the likes of Vennells, brought in for her private sector experience, trained by Unilever and having worked for a stack of private sector retailers. To attract these people, the £££ for the senior pay packages exploded. These were supposed to be people who knew what they were doing, and how to manage, and would show the rest of us how it should be done. With the drawback that they didn’t really understand what they were managing, because in the private sector a deep understanding and experience of what you are managing isn’t assumed to be important, management seen as a generic skill that you can learn in an MBA classroom.
They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
Sounds like Israel is the place to be for healthcare, although I suspect that their very young population skew distorts the figure a little.
Has anybody actually taken to time to go and look at what Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Korea, are doing right?
Yes, the US is a outlier in the other direction. Massive spending for very average outcomes. But we all knew that, and no-one wants to replicate the Amercian system anywhere either. It’s a useful bogeyman for defenders of the NHS though.
How many people really knew who she was until yesterday? Not many
Sunak got taken in my duplicitous liberal hysteria
Utterly magnificent.
A good start to the day for Sunak.
With the added bonus of LIBERAL !
Somebody on PB yesterday described her as a panto villain. I think that’s right. The average punter - I suspect - feels he’s meant to hiss when he sees that person coz others hiss. But he doesn’t really know why
I don’t think Sunak would have sustained much political damage if he’d kept her on and told the guardian to do one. And he would have gained on the right
However he sacked her - idiotically - and now he’s got open civil war. But it’s ok coz he’s elevated David Cameron to the lords so Dave can take more taxpayers money, that should be popular
As this is a political betting site and I was commenting on an opinion poll I’m not sure your attack was particularly appropriate but chacun a son gout
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It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
Has anyone else noticed what these people worship, and why?
I’m sure @MikeSmithson has chided on this many times.
It’s good it is coming down but I fear that the damage to the tories on the economy is done and for a good generation. Black Wednesday was very similar.
Once you’ve Ratnered your brand it sticks.
Although a decent chunk of the money pot ends up in the pockets of lawyers and TV companies, rather than staying within the healthcare industry.
Pop by for cocktails later. I’ve got my own bar
All governments have failed on this and similar scandals, so it isn't simply a Party Political matter. Maybe that's why it's a bit of a yawn for some people. It doesn't matter who is in charge. We have to find a way of making accountable those responsible for such iniquities. Sure, there are plenty of middle managers, IT consultants, lawyers, senior executives and Board Members who could and should be banged up on the evidence available to date (and it grows more damning daily.)
Nevertheless if these fiascos are to become less common (and they are alarmingly so at present) we need a better model, greater accountability, and greater transparency in the management of large public institutions. Who will deliver this?
Starmer could, but are there enough votes in it to attract his attention? It's not as if he isn't going to have enough on his plate when he moves into No 10. And my impression of the Labour Party is that it enjoys 'froth' rather than real action just as much as the current ruling crew and its supporters. So I'm not holding my breath.
If he or anyone were serious about rectifying the present lamentable situation they could do worse than appoint Lord Arbuthnot as Commissar in charge of Government control of its major Institutions. He has the experience of the Mull of Kintyre scandal, as well as the PO. He knows how and why things go wrong. He has immense political experience, nous, and endless goodwill.
But would Starmer, or any other PM, actually want someone in Government telling them things they'd rather not hear?
Your guess is as good as mine.
The price of basic pills like aspirin or ibuprofen (at least in Italy last month). You can’t buy them cheap and generic in big supermarkets so you have to go to actual pharmacies where they charge you £10 for 8 paracetamol or whatever
I’ve noticed this in several places in the EU. Presumably it’s to keep local pharmacies solvent but it’s quite irritating
It’s not plausible either. Probably not “rogue” but an outlier.
Reform won’t get 11% in an election. Where those votes go, if anywhere, is an open question
It really isn’t. Neither for the fortunes of the Conservative Party, nor for those of us who bet on politics.
Which is not to denigrate the importance of the P.O. scandal either.
It’s possible to engage with either without denigration of the other.
Right, I’m off to a National Trust property with my tory-voting friend and A.N. Other floating voter. Should be fun
Have a nice day
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Electoral Calculus, as I have posted repeatedly, is voodoo. Very erudite voodoo, but voodoo nonetheless. Its individual seat projections don’t pass the most basic of smell tests. It may arrive at an accurate overall figure but so may “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” if you’re lucky enough.
Whether I like the poll or not has nothing to do with it.
I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if the Tories poll 19% at a GE and make a gain from any party.
Constituency MPs
Lord Arbuthnot
Investigative journalists (Nick Wallis et al)
Computer weekly
Panorama
Private Eye
Second Sight
Mr Justice Fraser
Apolgies for those I may have missed. They are doubtless numerous.
It doesn’t predict voting at the General Election. It asks how you would vote if there were an election today, which there isn’t. So it’s a litmus test of the now.
I shall have a wry smile if other pollsters reflect a comparable shift towards Labour. Or an embarrassed flush if they don’t.
Off out.
x
MRP pseudopolls are probably better for individual seats.
Ordinary decent people don't use peon things like water pipes, and can't see that they are leaking from their house in the Dordogne. So what does it matter?
More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
The hotel is bloody amazing tho
Here. Shinta Mani Wild in the Cardamom mountains. Supposedly the best hotel in Cambodia
Rooms are only £2200 a night so it’s also a bit of a bargain right now
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g16701391-d15791874-Reviews-Shinta_Mani_Wild_Bensley_Collection-Ou_Bak_Roteh_Sihanoukville_Province.html
Wallis deserves much of the credit, for digging into the story and starting the ball rolling on bringing it to wider attention. His earlier work on shared-appreciation mortgages, which also led to compensation, was of similar vein.
For as long as I can remember, we've seen the path to national redemption as finding a genius to save us. Churchill, Attlee, Maggie, Blair. If only we can find them, and let them do what they know is right, all will be well. Johnson, Corbyn.
My hunch is that it's rubbish, there are no genius shortcuts and we're not that much smarter than each other.
But that means that those at the top aren't worth orders of magnitude more than those at the bottom. And if we want a nicer world, it depends on all of us doing more of the right sort of work.
Much easier to hold out for a hero.
Those who condemn the lack of regulation of those foreign owners fail to acknowledge that this was a buyers market and it was not for us, as distressed sellers, to set the terms.
The fact that those who complain about this also complain about supposed "austerity" means that they have failed to understand the consequences of the ruinous policies operated in the 1990s and early 2000s.
If we want control of our assets and our futures we need to stop borrowing from abroad and start paying that mountain of debt back. The economic consequences of reducing our standard of living to our actual earnings would be severe but we are running out of road.
I thought he was an ok sort in a tradition that is in decline in the Tory Party these days.
Judge as you find. Without his efforts, it is doubtful the truth about Chinook and the PO would have come out as fully as it has.
Maybe he found his vocation.
The career of one (indeed two) recently departed Prime Minister is a case in point.
are you saving we might have to work for a living ?
The best place to measure it might be football clubs. There must be some way of analysing whether Messi, Kane, Bellingham, Haaland etc are REALLY worth £200k a week to their respective clubs in terms of profits generated by victories and trophies?
One arena where high pay is definitely verifiable and justifiable is literature. Because you are paid royalties. If you sell 10m books you make about £2m from a percentage of each book. Simples. And if you don’t sell that many you don’t get paid so much
I am much more doubtful about local government bigwigs or bbc managers making £400k
You could wipe out every private school in the country (and bear in mind there are many different types, specialist, international, progressive, religious and traditional) and it wouldn't change this one jot.
She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.