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What are Ministers for? – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    This private eye report is a helpful explainer: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.private-eye.co.uk/pictures/special_reports/justice-lost-in-the-post.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjd_Yz8qsWCAxUjWkEAHWNtC8o4FBAWegQIFRAB&usg=AOvVaw26vsqdJSjMliH866DoEdhS

    One thing which comes out to me is that individual MPs, through the constituency system raised concerns - and seem to have been crucial to getting things out into the open.

    Investigative journalism also has really proved its worth.

    The system hasn't worked... but I suspect this never would have come to light without them.

    Yes, some come out of it very well. It's worth naming them:

    Constituency MPs
    Lord Arbuthnot
    Investigative journalists (Nick Wallis et al)
    Computer weekly
    Panorama
    Private Eye
    Second Sight
    Mr Justice Fraser

    Apolgies for those I may have missed. They are doubtless numerous.
    When I first moved to East London, Arbuthnot was the local MP, and he was useless, sitting in his then safe seat but living out in Hampshire, doing the bare minimum merely wafting in for the occasional photo opportunity. Even the local Tories spent much of the time slagging him off. When the seat got carved up in the 1990s boundary review, and with Blair incoming, he did the chicken run and landed himself a safe seat in Hampshire where he had lived all along. For him to emerge as one of the heroes of this story, sitting now in the Lords, is most surprising.

    Wallis deserves much of the credit, for digging into the story and starting the ball rolling on bringing it to wider attention. His earlier work on shared-appreciation mortgages, which also led to compensation, was of similar vein.
    He was my parents’ MP in NE Hampshire, generally thought of as a bit rubbish in a very safe seat, but would turn up to the opening of a tin can if there was a photographer from the local paper there.

    It’s interesting how some MPs start off good and end up crap, whereas others find their calling later in life. It’s a little surprising to see Arbuthnot eventually make the good list.
  • Our lame duck prime minister has made his most irrational move yet
    The fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse

    The consequences of this country’s naive help-yourself attitude to foreign takeovers are everywhere.

    The pipes that carry the nation’s water to our homes are leaking millions of litres of water every day.

    Car manufacturers have repeatedly threatened to pack up and leave unless the state hands over hundreds of millions of pounds in subsidies, and thousands of steel workers have become pawns in this Government’s yearning for a post-Brexit trade deal with India.

    Meanwhile, strategic assets such as our airports, ports and even the pipeline that sends gas around the UK are traded like pieces on a Monopoly board without a thought for the wider national interest.

    Swathes of this country’s vital infrastructure and key industries have ended up in the hands of unaccountable overseas investors, and private equity companies, who have routinely prioritised dividend payments and executive bonuses over basic yet necessary capital investment.

    As a result, the fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse.

    Elsewhere, some of the most promising firms in high-growth sectors such as engineering, software, and cyber-security have vanished abroad without so much as a whimper.

    Unforgivably, in some instances such as telecoms and attempts to replace our aging fleet of nuclear power stations, we’ve rolled out the red carpet to regimes that are outwardly hostile to Britain and actively seek to harm our interests.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/14/british-industry-foreign-investment-national-security-china/ (£££)

    The government (in the shape of Oliver Dowden) is now planning to weaken what little protection we have against foreign takeovers, just months after telling us how well its new takeover regime was performing.

    The national interest is keeping the Conservative Party in government. What the article misses out is that so many Tory spivs have made so much money flogging off all our things and have then donated so much money to the Conservative Party.

    Ordinary decent people don't use peon things like water pipes, and can't see that they are leaking from their house in the Dordogne. So what does it matter?
    The Telegraph goes on to consider City lobbying because M&A deals have dried up (although there are other explanations for this, such as higher interest rates).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    Sunak totally screwed up
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all. The P.O. scandal is disgraceful and well done for keeping on it.

    However, my attention is inevitably drawn this morning to the civil war in the Conservative party. Good lord, I’ve seen the GB News People Polling opinion poll giving Labour a 30 point lead

    Labour 49%
    Cons 19%
    LibDems 9%

    This is the first poll properly conducted after the, erm, ‘reshuffle’ and Braverman’s onslaught against Sunak. Dates conducted were yesterday.

    However, I would suggest some caution. Although internal party civil war never looks good, and although this may reflect Red Wall anger, it may be a rogue poll.

    IMV it's definitely a rogue poll.

    […]
    Good morning JJ.

    definitely?

    I’m not sure you are right about this. There seems to be genuine fury on the right. 11% for Reform UK is probably not to be dismissed too lightly.

    I’m not really paying a lot of attention to Labour at the moment and I don’t think the electorate are either. When the governing party are monopolising the UK news, for good or ill, the opposition parties don’t tend to get a look in. If Keir Starmer is sorting out his lefties then it’s probably not going to make much of a splash.

    Reform won’t get 11% in an election. Where those votes go, if anywhere, is an open question
    That’s not actually what an opinion poll is about though.

    It doesn’t predict voting at the General Election. It asks how you would vote if there were an election today, which there isn’t. So it’s a litmus test of the now.

    I shall have a wry smile if other pollsters reflect a comparable shift towards Labour. Or an embarrassed flush if they don’t.

    Off out.


    x
    And you are translating into a number of seats.
  • Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.



    Because that's the behaviour that's rewarded.

    People almost always follow incentives. And if organisations punish those who expose problems but reward those loyal to it then that's exactly what they'll get.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    Mrs Foxy notes that Braverman has had quite a makeover. She used to dress very frumpily, that over emphasised her squirrel like features. She dresses much better now.

    I find her repellent politically, not least because she isn't a moron. She is an Oxbridge and Sorbonne educated lawyer, ironically via the Erasmus scheme that she helped finish off. She says and does this stuff quite knowingly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    edited November 2023
    P
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
    No, the Privately educated dominate our establishment, including the medical profession.




    Those are not management positions. Most people like Elaine Cottam have been to State schools.
  • Inflation down to 4.6%.

    A good start to the day for Sunak.

    Sky News suggests the fall in inflation is due to falling energy prices and sod all to do with interest rates, money supply and all that other Treasury orthodoxy.

    The good news for Rishi (aside from falling inflation being one of his five pledges) is that for many households, wages are now up by more, so voters with limited memory spans might credit the government.

    Inflation tumbles to two-year low of 4.6% as energy costs ease
    While the pace of price rises in the economy is still growing, it is now well below the rate of average wage hikes giving a limited boost to household spending power.

    https://news.sky.com/story/inflation-tumbles-to-two-year-low-of-4-6-as-energy-costs-ease-13008537
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited November 2023
    .
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Our lame duck prime minister has made his most irrational move yet
    The fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse

    The consequences of this country’s naive help-yourself attitude to foreign takeovers are everywhere.

    The pipes that carry the nation’s water to our homes are leaking millions of litres of water every day.

    Car manufacturers have repeatedly threatened to pack up and leave unless the state hands over hundreds of millions of pounds in subsidies, and thousands of steel workers have become pawns in this Government’s yearning for a post-Brexit trade deal with India.

    Meanwhile, strategic assets such as our airports, ports and even the pipeline that sends gas around the UK are traded like pieces on a Monopoly board without a thought for the wider national interest.

    Swathes of this country’s vital infrastructure and key industries have ended up in the hands of unaccountable overseas investors, and private equity companies, who have routinely prioritised dividend payments and executive bonuses over basic yet necessary capital investment.

    As a result, the fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse.

    Elsewhere, some of the most promising firms in high-growth sectors such as engineering, software, and cyber-security have vanished abroad without so much as a whimper.

    Unforgivably, in some instances such as telecoms and attempts to replace our aging fleet of nuclear power stations, we’ve rolled out the red carpet to regimes that are outwardly hostile to Britain and actively seek to harm our interests.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/14/british-industry-foreign-investment-national-security-china/ (£££)

    The government (in the shape of Oliver Dowden) is now planning to weaken what little protection we have against foreign takeovers, just months after telling us how well its new takeover regime was performing.

    It is certainly remarkable how different our attitude is from, well, almost everywhere else. Even the home of global free capitalism the US protects its economic national interests more doggedly.
    As someone said on here the other day, it all started to go wrong when the balance of payments figures stopped being reported as front page news.

    We need to export more as a country, otherwise the incoming money starts buying up shares and property instead.
    Yep, those that lament our infrastructure and our companies being in foreign ownership with all the detriments of a branch economy that means simply refuse to accept that this is a consequence of having a massive and ongoing trade deficit creating the need to sell capital assets to balance the books.

    Those who condemn the lack of regulation of those foreign owners fail to acknowledge that this was a buyers market and it was not for us, as distressed sellers, to set the terms.

    The fact that those who complain about this also complain about supposed "austerity" means that they have failed to understand the consequences of the ruinous policies operated in the 1990s and early 2000s.

    If we want control of our assets and our futures we need to stop borrowing from abroad and start paying that mountain of debt back. The economic consequences of reducing our standard of living to our actual earnings would be severe but we are running out of road.
    An example of economic management.

    New towns to be built near key chip clusters
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=363289
    The government has chosen five sites natwionwide to build new towns to house workers in Korea's key semiconductor clusters, the land ministry said Wednesday. The measure is also aimed at achieving balanced regional develpment by building around 80,000 new homes outside the greater Seoul area.

    The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said it selected Yongin, Guri, and Osan in Gyeonggi Province, as well as Cheongju, North Chungcheong Province, and Jeju Island as locations for the new homes.

    "The ministry has selected regions with the highest housing demands in the country and the biggest potential for balanced growth of the economy and community development,"the ministry said in a statement.

    One of the new sites is the Segyo area of Osan, Gyeonggi Province. Around 31,000 housing units will be built in that area, which is the center of the country's strategic mega chip cluster around Hwaseong, Yongin and Pyeongtaek in southern Gyeonggi Province. It is the biggest in size among the new sites.

    New Segyo will also contain new homes for workers in 10 neighboring industrial complexes, including Gajang in Osan, Jeongnam in Hwaseong and Seotan and Jinwi in Pyeongtaek. Segyo is also in the vicinity of a new KTX high-speed train station scheduled for completion in 2025 and a new GTX train station that covers the country's capital region...


    There are plenty of things wrong with the Korean system, but government of left and right share something of a consensus on rational, long term economic planning.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    Sunak totally screwed up
    No he didn't. Tacking to the centre has brought all the PB waverers back on board, and I suspect in a week or two, national polling will reflect that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632
    Sean_F said:

    P

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
    No, the Privately educated dominate our establishment, including the medical profession.




    Those are not management positions. Most people like Elaine Cottam have been to State schools.
    ?

    Senior politicians, senior mandarins, heads of public bodies, media editors are not management positions?
  • Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues
  • DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Our lame duck prime minister has made his most irrational move yet
    The fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse

    The consequences of this country’s naive help-yourself attitude to foreign takeovers are everywhere.

    The pipes that carry the nation’s water to our homes are leaking millions of litres of water every day.

    Car manufacturers have repeatedly threatened to pack up and leave unless the state hands over hundreds of millions of pounds in subsidies, and thousands of steel workers have become pawns in this Government’s yearning for a post-Brexit trade deal with India.

    Meanwhile, strategic assets such as our airports, ports and even the pipeline that sends gas around the UK are traded like pieces on a Monopoly board without a thought for the wider national interest.

    Swathes of this country’s vital infrastructure and key industries have ended up in the hands of unaccountable overseas investors, and private equity companies, who have routinely prioritised dividend payments and executive bonuses over basic yet necessary capital investment.

    As a result, the fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse.

    Elsewhere, some of the most promising firms in high-growth sectors such as engineering, software, and cyber-security have vanished abroad without so much as a whimper.

    Unforgivably, in some instances such as telecoms and attempts to replace our aging fleet of nuclear power stations, we’ve rolled out the red carpet to regimes that are outwardly hostile to Britain and actively seek to harm our interests.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/14/british-industry-foreign-investment-national-security-china/ (£££)

    The government (in the shape of Oliver Dowden) is now planning to weaken what little protection we have against foreign takeovers, just months after telling us how well its new takeover regime was performing.

    It is certainly remarkable how different our attitude is from, well, almost everywhere else. Even the home of global free capitalism the US protects its economic national interests more doggedly.
    As someone said on here the other day, it all started to go wrong when the balance of payments figures stopped being reported as front page news.

    We need to export more as a country, otherwise the incoming money starts buying up shares and property instead.
    Yep, those that lament our infrastructure and our companies being in foreign ownership with all the detriments of a branch economy that means simply refuse to accept that this is a consequence of having a massive and ongoing trade deficit creating the need to sell capital assets to balance the books.

    Those who condemn the lack of regulation of those foreign owners fail to acknowledge that this was a buyers market and it was not for us, as distressed sellers, to set the terms.

    The fact that those who complain about this also complain about supposed "austerity" means that they have failed to understand the consequences of the ruinous policies operated in the 1990s and early 2000s.

    If we want control of our assets and our futures we need to stop borrowing from abroad and start paying that mountain of debt back. The economic consequences of reducing our standard of living to our actual earnings would be severe but we are running out of road.
    Chicken and egg. Once companies and utilities are foreign-owned, their profits and dividends leave the country and so contribute to the deficit. If utilities are subsidised, then Jeremy Hunt effectively writes President Macron a cheque every six months.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    Sunak totally screwed up
    No he didn't. Tacking to the centre has brought all the PB waverers back on board, and I suspect in a week or two, national polling will reflect that.
    I’d be up for a modest wager on this, if we could find a way of framing jt. But it is tricky

    The tories might get a boost from inflation falling or Labour infighting over Gaza and it will be near impossible to sift that out from movements over the Reshuffle

    Anyway: it’s my firm belief Cameron/Braverman won’t significantly budge the needle either way, but it will add to Tory instability and civil warfare so it’s a net negative in the medium term
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    .

    Our lame duck prime minister has made his most irrational move yet
    The fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse

    The consequences of this country’s naive help-yourself attitude to foreign takeovers are everywhere.

    The pipes that carry the nation’s water to our homes are leaking millions of litres of water every day.

    Car manufacturers have repeatedly threatened to pack up and leave unless the state hands over hundreds of millions of pounds in subsidies, and thousands of steel workers have become pawns in this Government’s yearning for a post-Brexit trade deal with India.

    Meanwhile, strategic assets such as our airports, ports and even the pipeline that sends gas around the UK are traded like pieces on a Monopoly board without a thought for the wider national interest.

    Swathes of this country’s vital infrastructure and key industries have ended up in the hands of unaccountable overseas investors, and private equity companies, who have routinely prioritised dividend payments and executive bonuses over basic yet necessary capital investment.

    As a result, the fabric of Britain has fallen into disrepair and foreign ownership makes it much harder to reverse.

    Elsewhere, some of the most promising firms in high-growth sectors such as engineering, software, and cyber-security have vanished abroad without so much as a whimper.

    Unforgivably, in some instances such as telecoms and attempts to replace our aging fleet of nuclear power stations, we’ve rolled out the red carpet to regimes that are outwardly hostile to Britain and actively seek to harm our interests.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/14/british-industry-foreign-investment-national-security-china/ (£££)

    The government (in the shape of Oliver Dowden) is now planning to weaken what little protection we have against foreign takeovers, just months after telling us how well its new takeover regime was performing.

    The national interest is keeping the Conservative Party in government. What the article misses out is that so many Tory spivs have made so much money flogging off all our things and have then donated so much money to the Conservative Party.

    Ordinary decent people don't use peon things like water pipes, and can't see that they are leaking from their house in the Dordogne. So what does it matter?
    What it also misses out are that these were policies its publisher enthusiastically advocated, alongside the party it supports, for many years.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    ajb said:

    Sandpit said:

    An interesting chart on healthcare. Is NHS really the 'envy of the world' ?

    https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1724368034343641598

    Although it does show that we do not want a US-style system...

    No-one who’s ever lived in another OECD country, would describe the NHS as such.

    Sounds like Israel is the place to be for healthcare, although I suspect that their very young population skew distorts the figure a little.

    Has anybody actually taken to time to go and look at what Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Korea, are doing right?

    Yes, the US is a outlier in the other direction. Massive spending for very average outcomes. But we all knew that, and no-one wants to replicate the Amercian system anywhere either. It’s a useful bogeyman for defenders of the NHS though.
    Unfortunately it's not true that no-one wants to replicate the American system elsewhere. The companies that run it, and their shareholders would love to do so, and they have plenty of money for bribeslobbying.
    IIRC if you take the money that the US gov spends on healthcare (Medicare, Medicare, VA, State level spending etc etc) it is more than the NHS. Per head of population.
    Yes, I think Jim_Miller has been writing about this lately. Incidentally, the same may be true in some of the European insurance-based systems.
    The European insurance based systems* are supposed to (and generally do) cover the entire population.

    The American governmental systems aren’t - the fact that they cost NHS levels is therefore quite startling.

    Incidentally, there is Socialised Medicine for……politicians, in the US.

    Members of Congress and the Senate get free, Rolls Royce healthcare for themselves and their families. For life….

    *which include a hefty wack of gov money to help those without the said insurance
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
    No, the Privately educated dominate our establishment, including the medical profession.




    The problem is much simpler.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    "large chunk"?

    She more likely speaks for a large chunk of those who were Conservatives in 2019 but currently sit in Refuk's base. Admittedly, it is not good for Conservative prospects at the upcoming election that some supporters have peeled off. But the idea of allowing Braverman free rein to talk for them was unacceptable.

    I'm loving the timing of Braverman shrieking that Sunak is a disaster, followed the next day by his delivering on his inflation target. Hur hur hur....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Leon said:

    Anyway: it’s my firm belief Cameron/Braverman won’t significantly budge the needle either way, but it will add to Tory instability and civil warfare so it’s a net negative in the medium term

    The Conservative and Unionist Party purging the UKIP headbangers is net positive, long term
  • Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    Upmarket version of celebrity culture.

    For as long as I can remember, we've seen the path to national redemption as finding a genius to save us. Churchill, Attlee, Maggie, Blair. If only we can find them, and let them do what they know is right, all will be well. Johnson, Corbyn.

    My hunch is that it's rubbish, there are no genius shortcuts and we're not that much smarter than each other.

    But that means that those at the top aren't worth orders of magnitude more than those at the bottom. And if we want a nicer world, it depends on all of us doing more of the right sort of work.

    Much easier to hold out for a hero.
    I’ve often wondered this. Are the people that make squillions really worth squillions?

    The best place to measure it might be football clubs. There must be some way of analysing whether Messi, Kane, Bellingham, Haaland etc are REALLY worth £200k a week to their respective clubs in terms of profits generated by victories and trophies?

    One arena where high pay is definitely verifiable and justifiable is literature. Because you are paid royalties. If you sell 10m books you make about £2m from a percentage of each book. Simples. And if you don’t sell that many you don’t get paid so much

    I am much more doubtful about local government bigwigs or bbc managers making £400k
    I guess the simple answer is that people are "worth" what they (or their agent) can persuade someone to pay them. Markets, unbuckable.

    And in some artificial fields, like competitive sport (second place is first loser and all that), paying whatever it takes for the very best makes sense, and it doesn't really matter.

    But even in fields like literature... Is the skewedness of the distribution helpful? Are we missing out on really good stuff because the system now supports relatively few superstars?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Inflation down to 4.6%.

    A good start to the day for Sunak.

    Further progress towards 2% will be hard and slow though, so interest rates not likely to fall significantly until late 2025.
    But, as I have pointed out previously, the gap between wage growth and inflation will broaden sharply giving back a fair bit of the loss in real wages over the last couple of years. People will actually be better off than they are now, if not as well off as they were before the inflation genie escaped. Will the Tories get credit for that? I have my doubts.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited November 2023

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Good news on inflation. Which month is used for determining benefit increases?
  • By dodging Western oil sanctions ever more easily, Russia is earning extra billions to buy weapons for its brutal war on Ukraine.

    Oil and natural gas revenues account for about 45 per cent of Russia’s federal budget. In September, its monthly oil export earnings rose to nearly $19bn – the highest since July 2022.

    This is allowing Putin to boost military spending. A new 2024 draft budget projects a defence spending rise from 3.9 per cent to 6 per cent of GDP.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-oil-revenues-putin-spending-2753912?ico=related_article_inline
  • Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Good news on inflation. Which month is used for determining benefit increases?
    September. It was 6.7% then. Expect benefits to go up 6.7% in April. State pension may go up slightly higher due to technicalities with the Triple Lock (wage increases), not confirmed yet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
    No, the Privately educated dominate our establishment, including the medical profession.




    The problem is much simpler.
    Certainly the dominant culture on PB of privately educated men doesn't want to accept that the system that they benefited personally from is a large part of the problem of entitlement.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    DavidL said:

    Inflation down to 4.6%.

    A good start to the day for Sunak.

    Further progress towards 2% will be hard and slow though, so interest rates not likely to fall significantly until late 2025.
    But, as I have pointed out previously, the gap between wage growth and inflation will broaden sharply giving back a fair bit of the loss in real wages over the last couple of years. People will actually be better off than they are now, if not as well off as they were before the inflation genie escaped. Will the Tories get credit for that? I have my doubts.
    It is the driver of a late election though. All those waaah-waaah-waaah election now types are not going to get their way!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Good news on inflation. Which month is used for determining benefit increases?
    Pretty sure it was September so this fall comes too late for the government finances. Presumably that is behind the alleged intention to cut disability benefits by £4bn or so mentioned earlier in the week. In the meantime pensioners get another windfall. No doubt the pensioners/Conservative party will be horrified.
  • Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    "large chunk"?

    She more likely speaks for a large chunk of those who were Conservatives in 2019 but currently sit in Refuk's base. Admittedly, it is not good for Conservative prospects at the upcoming election that some supporters have peeled off. But the idea of allowing Braverman free rein to talk for them was unacceptable.

    I'm loving the timing of Braverman shrieking that Sunak is a disaster, followed the next day by his delivering on his inflation target. Hur hur hur....
    She speaks for a large chunk of Daily Mail readers.

    That is not quite the same as a large chunk of the Conservative base.

    The current shenanigans are all about positioning for the Party Leadership after the GE. Principles don't come into it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    DavidL said:

    Inflation down to 4.6%.

    A good start to the day for Sunak.

    Further progress towards 2% will be hard and slow though, so interest rates not likely to fall significantly until late 2025.
    But, as I have pointed out previously, the gap between wage growth and inflation will broaden sharply giving back a fair bit of the loss in real wages over the last couple of years. People will actually be better off than they are now, if not as well off as they were before the inflation genie escaped. Will the Tories get credit for that? I have my doubts.
    It is the driver of a late election though. All those waaah-waaah-waaah election now types are not going to get their way!
    I think that the Conservatives may live to regret that option. They need to watch broad money, specifically M4, very carefully. There may be trouble ahead....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited November 2023

    By dodging Western oil sanctions ever more easily, Russia is earning extra billions to buy weapons for its brutal war on Ukraine.

    Oil and natural gas revenues account for about 45 per cent of Russia’s federal budget. In September, its monthly oil export earnings rose to nearly $19bn – the highest since July 2022.

    This is allowing Putin to boost military spending. A new 2024 draft budget projects a defence spending rise from 3.9 per cent to 6 per cent of GDP.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-oil-revenues-putin-spending-2753912?ico=related_article_inline

    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    The West needs to be offering a lot of carrots and sticks to OPEC countries, and increasing their own supply of O&G products, to get the oil price low enough that Putin can’t make money from his dodgy oil. Pressure needs to be put on India and China as well, the routes through which the Russian oil is making it to international markets.

    An interesting story from the other day, is that Russia is also exporting billions in gold, most of it also going through the sandpit. One factory in Dubai has lost its international certification, effectively banning exports from there to the West. Again, China and India are involved, this time as the destination markets.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/11/untraceable-russia-gold-sanctions-funding-putin-war/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    To what benefit ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/14/therese-coffey-says-she-nearly-died-from-ministerial-stress
    Thérèse Coffey said she “nearly died” due to the stress of being a government minister.

    Speaking to BBC Radio Suffolk, the former environment secretary said she was admitted to hospital after “working [herself] into the ground”...
  • On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Inflation down to 4.6%.

    A good start to the day for Sunak.

    Further progress towards 2% will be hard and slow though, so interest rates not likely to fall significantly until late 2025.
    But, as I have pointed out previously, the gap between wage growth and inflation will broaden sharply giving back a fair bit of the loss in real wages over the last couple of years. People will actually be better off than they are now, if not as well off as they were before the inflation genie escaped. Will the Tories get credit for that? I have my doubts.
    It is the driver of a late election though. All those waaah-waaah-waaah election now types are not going to get their way!
    I think that the Conservatives may live to regret that option. They need to watch broad money, specifically M4, very carefully. There may be trouble ahead....
    The UK has been living on the never-never since 2001, under governments of all colours. The reckoning, when it eventually comes, is going to be brutal.
  • One of the problems is the reaction to criticism. I accept that people and organisations make mistakes, but what is maddening is the refusal to do anything to recognise and correct mistakes.

    Instead of criticism being seen as one of the benefits of an open and democratic society, it is always seen as something to be rebutted, deflected and minimised. The key thing in any institutional response has become the public line to take, and not an honest appraisal of whether the criticism is warranted and requires acting on.

    So much time and suffering could have been avoided if the first public criticism of Horizon had been listened to and acted on. I cannot remember when I first became aware of this scandal, it's been so long, and every time I've heard about it I've always thought, "that's terrible, but at least now that it's out in the open it can be fixed," and yet it has gone on and on and, even now, the foot-dragging on remedial steps for those wrongly convicted is shameful.

    I disagree, I doubt its a problem, and if it is the impact is minimal.
  • Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
  • Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Inflation down to 4.6%.

    A good start to the day for Sunak.

    Further progress towards 2% will be hard and slow though, so interest rates not likely to fall significantly until late 2025.
    But, as I have pointed out previously, the gap between wage growth and inflation will broaden sharply giving back a fair bit of the loss in real wages over the last couple of years. People will actually be better off than they are now, if not as well off as they were before the inflation genie escaped. Will the Tories get credit for that? I have my doubts.
    It is the driver of a late election though. All those waaah-waaah-waaah election now types are not going to get their way!
    I think that the Conservatives may live to regret that option. They need to watch broad money, specifically M4, very carefully. There may be trouble ahead....
    The UK has been living on the never-never since 2001, under governments of all colours. The reckoning, when it eventually comes, is going to be brutal.
    As recently as that? Didn't we start having problems in the 1980s? (And then the situation was flattered by North Sea oil/gas.)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited November 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    Michael Howard on R4 Today in training for the role of grand old man of Tory statesman, gravitas, studied moderation, effortless demolition of idiot MP, and equally effortless evaporation of Braverman. With Clarke and Heseltine getting on a bit he may well fit the coming vacant chair.

    In substance he suggested that Braverman will be forgotten soon, and is a simplistic idiot and that Mrs Thatcher was a cautious compromiser. Older listeners would, with me, have found it both true, and ironic and hilarious, with a mental image of that pantomime dame on Strictly coming to mind.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    Sunak totally screwed up
    Yep, never should have appointed her in the first place. At least it is fixed now, however belatedly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632
    Nigelb said:

    To what benefit ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/14/therese-coffey-says-she-nearly-died-from-ministerial-stress
    Thérèse Coffey said she “nearly died” due to the stress of being a government minister.

    Speaking to BBC Radio Suffolk, the former environment secretary said she was admitted to hospital after “working [herself] into the ground”...

    She was in a very junior position at environment and rural affairs at the time.

    Overweight, smokes, long hours culture, don't know about the booze, yet its the NHS to blame for preventable mortality...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Not long now till the SC ruling .

    According to Joshua Rozenberg it’s likely any ruling will be unanimous given how quickly the judges came to their decision .

    For lovers of popcorn a ruling against the government will surely lead to a Braverman tirade part 2 .

    It will also embolden the right to go into overdrive in calling for the UK to leave the ECHR .

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    Sunak totally screwed up
    No he didn't. Tacking to the centre has brought all the PB waverers back on board, and I suspect in a week or two, national polling will reflect that.
    Nah, the centre is gone but the right is still salvageable.

    Times change and he can't win by suddenly and bizarrely trying to give the impression we're back in the pre 2016 era. Nor would trying to recapture Borisian style work in 2023.

    He needed to sack Braverman as disloyal but replace her with someone equally as rabid, to show her complaints were nonsense.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Proper radio rental. She was sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edit. Sundance had no choice but to sack her. But, hiring Call
    Me Dave was his choice.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    Last 7 words superfluous. Ed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Nigelb said:

    For those fancying a bet, I think Haley is probably still value.

    Leading Tim Scott backer to co-host New York fundraiser for Nikki Haley
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/13/tim-scott-backer-fundraiser-nikki-haley-00126910

    She seems to have the 'fall under a bus' replacement candidate position in hand.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    nico679 said:

    Not long now till the SC ruling .

    According to Joshua Rozenberg it’s likely any ruling will be unanimous given how quickly the judges came to their decision .

    For lovers of popcorn a ruling against the government will surely lead to a Braverman tirade part 2 .

    It will also embolden the right to go into overdrive in calling for the UK to leave the ECHR .

    Will a ruling for the government trigger various groups to try to take the case to the ECHR?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited November 2023

    One of the problems is the reaction to criticism. I accept that people and organisations make mistakes, but what is maddening is the refusal to do anything to recognise and correct mistakes.

    Instead of criticism being seen as one of the benefits of an open and democratic society, it is always seen as something to be rebutted, deflected and minimised. The key thing in any institutional response has become the public line to take, and not an honest appraisal of whether the criticism is warranted and requires acting on.

    So much time and suffering could have been avoided if the first public criticism of Horizon had been listened to and acted on. I cannot remember when I first became aware of this scandal, it's been so long, and every time I've heard about it I've always thought, "that's terrible, but at least now that it's out in the open it can be fixed," and yet it has gone on and on and, even now, the foot-dragging on remedial steps for those wrongly convicted is shameful.

    I disagree, I doubt its a problem, and if it is the impact is minimal.
    Very well done.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    India 47/0 after 5 overs vs NZ.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/66859416
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    To what benefit ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/14/therese-coffey-says-she-nearly-died-from-ministerial-stress
    Thérèse Coffey said she “nearly died” due to the stress of being a government minister.

    Speaking to BBC Radio Suffolk, the former environment secretary said she was admitted to hospital after “working [herself] into the ground”...

    She was in a very junior position at environment and rural affairs at the time.

    Overweight, smokes, long hours culture, don't know about the booze, yet its the NHS to blame for preventable mortality...
    Every time I see her I think her legs are getting wider and wider. Has nobody recommended compression stockings for her?

    I know appearances should not be uppermost but, jeez.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited November 2023
    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Perhaps he needs extra maths tuition?
  • Nigelb said:

    To what benefit ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/14/therese-coffey-says-she-nearly-died-from-ministerial-stress
    Thérèse Coffey said she “nearly died” due to the stress of being a government minister.

    Speaking to BBC Radio Suffolk, the former environment secretary said she was admitted to hospital after “working [herself] into the ground”...

    The stress of sitting in a government which was presiding over inducing massive stresses for the sick, dying, unemployed, working poor etc etc. Its hard work being that mendaciously cruel to people.
  • One of the problems is the reaction to criticism. I accept that people and organisations make mistakes, but what is maddening is the refusal to do anything to recognise and correct mistakes.

    Instead of criticism being seen as one of the benefits of an open and democratic society, it is always seen as something to be rebutted, deflected and minimised. The key thing in any institutional response has become the public line to take, and not an honest appraisal of whether the criticism is warranted and requires acting on.

    So much time and suffering could have been avoided if the first public criticism of Horizon had been listened to and acted on. I cannot remember when I first became aware of this scandal, it's been so long, and every time I've heard about it I've always thought, "that's terrible, but at least now that it's out in the open it can be fixed," and yet it has gone on and on and, even now, the foot-dragging on remedial steps for those wrongly convicted is shameful.

    I disagree, I doubt its a problem, and if it is the impact is minimal.
    I do agree.

    What makes the PO's position so indefensible is that when the problems with Horizon became apparent, it doubled down on its assertions that it was robust, and continued to prosecute.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Inflation down to 4.6%.

    A good start to the day for Sunak.

    Further progress towards 2% will be hard and slow though, so interest rates not likely to fall significantly until late 2025.
    But, as I have pointed out previously, the gap between wage growth and inflation will broaden sharply giving back a fair bit of the loss in real wages over the last couple of years. People will actually be better off than they are now, if not as well off as they were before the inflation genie escaped. Will the Tories get credit for that? I have my doubts.
    It is the driver of a late election though. All those waaah-waaah-waaah election now types are not going to get their way!
    I think that the Conservatives may live to regret that option. They need to watch broad money, specifically M4, very carefully. There may be trouble ahead....
    The UK has been living on the never-never since 2001, under governments of all colours. The reckoning, when it eventually comes, is going to be brutal.
    As recently as that? Didn't we start having problems in the 1980s? (And then the situation was flattered by North Sea oil/gas.)
    2001 was the last time the govt budget balanced, but yes there were plenty of problems earlier.

    The 1970s saw the country pretty much broken, and the ‘80s eventually saw a recovery but flattered by asset sales and O&G revenues. The ‘90s saw the ERM exit followed by a good few years, masked somewhat by a depreciating currency. The 2000s were pretty static until the 2008 recession, but the government was over-borrowing and over-dependent on financial services for revenue. The 2010 government preached ‘austerity’, but didn’t actually cut spending and kept up the money printing, and we all know what’s happened in the last few years.
  • algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Yep. And if they try and sell that line they are going to learn a brutal political lesson.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.

    On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.
    Agree; it’s much easier to accept the word of those doing the work that ‘everything is under control’.
    However if so many Sub Postmasters were shown, by Horizon, to be ‘dishonest’, what did that say about the recruitment process and about what had gone on before?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    India going for it, could be another 400 score.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Perhaps he needs extra maths tuition?
    If wages rise faster than prices is the "cost of living" (sic) rising or falling?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited November 2023

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Inflation down to 4.6%.

    A good start to the day for Sunak.

    Further progress towards 2% will be hard and slow though, so interest rates not likely to fall significantly until late 2025.
    But, as I have pointed out previously, the gap between wage growth and inflation will broaden sharply giving back a fair bit of the loss in real wages over the last couple of years. People will actually be better off than they are now, if not as well off as they were before the inflation genie escaped. Will the Tories get credit for that? I have my doubts.
    It is the driver of a late election though. All those waaah-waaah-waaah election now types are not going to get their way!
    I think that the Conservatives may live to regret that option. They need to watch broad money, specifically M4, very carefully. There may be trouble ahead....
    The UK has been living on the never-never since 2001, under governments of all colours. The reckoning, when it eventually comes, is going to be brutal.
    As recently as that? Didn't we start having problems in the 1980s? (And then the situation was flattered by North Sea oil/gas.)
    We've had problems since about 1973. First oil crisis. A couple of positive blips is the mid/late 80s and mid/late 90s.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
  • Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    And average pay rises > average price rises covers a multitude of sins.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    For those fancying a bet, I think Haley is probably still value.

    Leading Tim Scott backer to co-host New York fundraiser for Nikki Haley
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/13/tim-scott-backer-fundraiser-nikki-haley-00126910

    She seems to have the 'fall under a bus' replacement candidate position in hand.
    We're going to need a bigger bus...
  • geoffw said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Perhaps he needs extra maths tuition?
    If wages rise faster than prices is the "cost of living" (sic) rising or falling?

    They may be rising faster than 5.2%. They won't be rising faster than the many months of massive price inflation we've just suffered.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    The
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    The otherwise annoying use of “cost of living crisis” as the new thing, rather than inflation, does at least have the benefit of making statements like his seem more obviously nonsense.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Not my wages!

    Who are all these people getting 6-10% pay rises?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Remedial maths lesson required.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another excellent header.

    The management may be second rate (is that too kind?), but they have first rate egos, and draw first rate salaries.

    I think the Post Office had/have the same problem as Suella Braverman.

    They are both arrogant and ignorant, that's a toxic mix.
    Could also be said of the DfE, DfT, OFQUAL, OFSTED, the Treasury, the DoH, Oxford University's History faculty, the people running the MA in public policy at Birkbeck...

    It's a long list of people involved in running our country and not in a good way.
    I am coming to the conclusion the biggest problem in this country is people vastly overestimate their abilities, particularly those in senior positions.
    That's because they mostly went to private schools. The rot starts there.
    I doubt if they *mostly* went there. Certainly not the boneheads of the NCB, mentioned in the header.

    More, the problem is unwillingness to take responsibility. When something goes wrong, the official response is (a) deny responsibility (b) organise the cover up.
    No, the Privately educated dominate our establishment, including the medical profession.




    The problem is much simpler.
    Certainly the dominant culture on PB of privately educated men doesn't want to accept that the system that they benefited personally from is a large part of the problem of entitlement.
    Tbf their personal qualities are so evident that they are obviously the exceptions that prove the private school leg up rule.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited November 2023
    It looks like the PO was prosecuting people for 16 years, from 2000 to 2016. They knew there were problems with the Horizon system in 1998/99.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    Not long now till the SC ruling .

    According to Joshua Rozenberg it’s likely any ruling will be unanimous given how quickly the judges came to their decision .

    For lovers of popcorn a ruling against the government will surely lead to a Braverman tirade part 2 .

    It will also embolden the right to go into overdrive in calling for the UK to leave the ECHR .

    Will a ruling for the government trigger various groups to try to take the case to the ECHR?
    Yes that’s a possibility. It’s not certain though that the court would agree to hear that. You could also see the government going to the court if they lose which would be quite something . I think if it’s indeed a unanimous decision by the SC in its ruling that it would be very unlikely the court would get involved .

    Today’s ruling isn’t just about the governments appeal there’s a counter appeal regarding the Asylum Procedures Directive as to whether it continues to have effect under EU retained law .
  • On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.

    On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.
    Agree; it’s much easier to accept the word of those doing the work that ‘everything is under control’.
    However if so many Sub Postmasters were shown, by Horizon, to be ‘dishonest’, what did that say about the recruitment process and about what had gone on before?
    Long before I became acquainted with the detail, I remember thinking that so many prosecutions had to raise questions about the integrity of the process. Common sense alone would tell you that the PO could surely not have cornered the market in dishonest staff.

    Common sense appears however to have been chronically lacking throughout the organisation, along with many other homely virtues.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited November 2023
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Don't forget that pretty much everyone (And if it doesn't include you you're probably struggling with inflation more) has a lower take home pay rise than their headline increase due to the currently static tax thresholds & being past the personal allowance. Of course this does help control inflation itself but I note in the USA the thresholds are effectively outsourced to the IRS and not a political plaything (I believe)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited November 2023

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Not my wages!

    Who are all these people getting 6-10% pay rises?
    Not mine either! Public sector mostly, from the other day’s survey.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/strong-pay-growth-uk-spreads-public-sector-survey-shows-2023-11-13/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Don't forget that pretty much everyone (And if it doesn't include you you're probably struggling with inflation more) has a lower take home pay rise than their headline increase due to the currently static tax thresholds & being past the personal allowance. Of course this does help control inflation itself but I note in the USA the thresholds are effectively outsourced to the IRS and not a political plaything (I believe)
    Yes, good old fiscal drag giving a lot of the rises back to the Treasury.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.

    On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.
    Agree; it’s much easier to accept the word of those doing the work that ‘everything is under control’.
    However if so many Sub Postmasters were shown, by Horizon, to be ‘dishonest’, what did that say about the recruitment process and about what had gone on before?
    Long before I became acquainted with the detail, I remember thinking that so many prosecutions had to raise questions about the integrity of the process. Common sense alone would tell you that the PO could surely not have cornered the market in dishonest staff.

    Common sense appears however to have been chronically lacking throughout the organisation, along with many other homely virtues.
    In fairness prosecutions did not start with Horizon. There have always been sub postmasters who have found themselves dipping into the money that they held in trust, just as there are with others in a similar situation such as lawyers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited November 2023
    I was hearing in the pre-match amble that India wanted a slow pitch. Is the pitch a slow one ??? This scoring rate is incredible if so.
    Might slow a touch now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    This is really a class war within the Tory party.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    A small drop in interest rates will save me thousands of pounds. That’s all I really care about. My fixed rate expiry in February 2024 beckons…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    This is really a class war within the Tory party.
    Between those who have it and those who don't?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    This is really a class war within the Tory party.
    Those with no class wanting Rishi to go....
  • Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the PO was prosecuting people for 16 years, from 2000 to 2016. They knew there were problems with the Horizon system in 1998/99.

    Identifying who knew what and when is going to be tricky, but it is undeniable that the PO was still prosecuting long after the problems with Horizon were known to it.

    The evidence of Gary Jenkins (Fujitsu) will be extremely interesting when he appears.

    Yesterday's witness, Debbie Staple, made a refreshing change from the succession of dumb and evil jobsworths we'd been seeing. For a start, Ms Staple seemed genuinely sad for the Subpostmasters and their associates who had their lives ruined. She showed an empathy that was conspicuously lacking in many of her former colleagues who had preceded her on the stand.

    She was also able to recognise plain truths, and speak them. Her testimony made it crystal clear that the PO and Fujitsu were wilfully denying the faults in the Horizon system in order to sustain the prosecutions of innocent Subpostmasters - past, present and future.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Well what he did say, from the BBC website is:

    "Inflation works like a tax. It eats into the pound in your pocket, affecting the price of your food shop, your mortgage, the size of your pension pot.

    "This is why halving inflation has been my number one priority.

    "Getting it down has involved hard decisions and fiscal discipline.

    "Official figures released this morning confirm we have halved inflation, meeting the first of the five priorities I set out at the beginning of this year.

    "But while it is welcome news that prices are no longer rising as quickly, we know many people are continuing to struggle, which is why we must stay the course to continue to get inflation all the way back down to 2%."

    So whether the BBC is deliberately misinterpreting what he said or you have it’s done the trick of gags about him needing to learn maths/stay off the spreadsheets. Who needs the truth anyway?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    This is really a class war within the Tory party.
    Those with no class wanting Rishi to go....
    There is only one candidate for the Tory leadership now. He needs no introduction.

    The man.

    The thinker.

    The legend.

    THE GOODWIN.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Not my wages!

    Who are all these people getting 6-10% pay rises?
    Not mine either! Public sector mostly, from the other day’s survey.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/strong-pay-growth-uk-spreads-public-sector-survey-shows-2023-11-13/
    Real terms pay cut for me and Mrs Foxy. Its why the staff are striking.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    This is really a class war within the Tory party.
    Low class vs No class ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Not my wages!

    Who are all these people getting 6-10% pay rises?
    Not mine either! Public sector mostly, from the other day’s survey.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/strong-pay-growth-uk-spreads-public-sector-survey-shows-2023-11-13/
    Private Sector pay rises are still higher than Public Sector rises even now.

    The gap is a lot less but the former has been ahead of the latter by a massive margin for years
  • A small drop in interest rates will save me thousands of pounds. That’s all I really care about. My fixed rate expiry in February 2024 beckons…

    I've just signed on for a 2 year fix from 1st February. An extra £230 a month on the mortgage. Thanks Rishi!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    edited November 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Not my wages!

    Who are all these people getting 6-10% pay rises?
    Not mine either! Public sector mostly, from the other day’s survey.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/strong-pay-growth-uk-spreads-public-sector-survey-shows-2023-11-13/
    Private Sector pay rises are still higher than Public Sector rises even now.

    The gap is a lot less but the former has been ahead of the latter by a massive margin for years
    Not everywhere. Pay freeze for all our staff here.
  • DavidL said:

    On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.

    On topic, none of the major political parties come out of the Post Office scandal with any credit. Why on earth did no-one ask questions when the cases became public knowledge? Or, of course, perhaps they did and were lied to!

    In a sense, OKC, it's good that they are all implicated because it stops it from being a Party Political Issue.

    Governments were undoubtedly lied to, but then they wanted to be. If they had been told the truth, they would have had to get involved and make difficult decisions.

    All the indications are that successive Governments were happy to be fobbed off.
    Agree; it’s much easier to accept the word of those doing the work that ‘everything is under control’.
    However if so many Sub Postmasters were shown, by Horizon, to be ‘dishonest’, what did that say about the recruitment process and about what had gone on before?
    Long before I became acquainted with the detail, I remember thinking that so many prosecutions had to raise questions about the integrity of the process. Common sense alone would tell you that the PO could surely not have cornered the market in dishonest staff.

    Common sense appears however to have been chronically lacking throughout the organisation, along with many other homely virtues.
    In fairness prosecutions did not start with Horizon. There have always been sub postmasters who have found themselves dipping into the money that they held in trust, just as there are with others in a similar situation such as lawyers.
    Nobody disputes it, David.

    Out of 900 or so prosecutions, it is bound to be the case that some involved genuine dishonesty. Nevertheless all cases involving Horizon were in principle unsound. Most, I would say, were utterly bogus.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Tory rebel Andrea Jenkyns says Priti Patel should run for leader of the Tory Party

    @kateferguson4

    Former Tory leader Michael Howard says Andrea Jenkyns is “some distance from reality” in calling for Rishi Sunak to go

    This is really a class war within the Tory party.
    At the moment it is looking like those on the right do not have the numbers to reverse Sunak's direction of travel. Given that, it will be interesting to see if any, especially in the Red Wall, realising that their time is up, choose to jump ship to Reform. That would really start off a meltdown.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Not my wages!

    Who are all these people getting 6-10% pay rises?
    Not mine either! Public sector mostly, from the other day’s survey.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/strong-pay-growth-uk-spreads-public-sector-survey-shows-2023-11-13/
    Private Sector pay rises are still higher than Public Sector rises even now.

    The gap is a lot less but the former has been ahead of the latter by a massive margin for years
    Not everywhere. Pay freeze for all our staff here.
    Yes, my understanding of the stats is what BJO has said, but that's never been my experience. I wonder if the stats are distorted by some at the very top in the private sector?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Not my wages!

    Who are all these people getting 6-10% pay rises?
    Not mine either! Public sector mostly, from the other day’s survey.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/strong-pay-growth-uk-spreads-public-sector-survey-shows-2023-11-13/
    Real terms pay cut for me and Mrs Foxy. Its why the staff are striking.
    Come on Foxy, broad shoulders and all that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    Sean_F said:

    On the polling, I'd be surprised if the reshuffle moved the dial much.

    I thought on Sunday a move for Suella wasn't happening because of the ruckus it would cause in the party - I couldn't see a political advantage.

    David Cameron coming back is actually a good move - he benefited from Hague's experience in the run up to 2010, as did Brown from Mandelson - but giving an impression of surrendering the right flank is dangerous.

    She had become wildly unpopular with voters in general, and she saw it as her role to make increasingly offensive comments, rather than get on with her job.
    She's not my cup of tea, but that didn't mean Sunak needed to walk straight into the trap.

    She talks for a large chunk of the Conservative base, and that needs to be managed.
    "large chunk"?

    She more likely speaks for a large chunk of those who were Conservatives in 2019 but currently sit in Refuk's base. Admittedly, it is not good for Conservative prospects at the upcoming election that some supporters have peeled off. But the idea of allowing Braverman free rein to talk for them was unacceptable.

    I'm loving the timing of Braverman shrieking that Sunak is a disaster, followed the next day by his delivering on his inflation target. Hur hur hur....
    The timing of the fall in inflation (shit all to do with Sunak 'delivering' anything) is fairly poor for Sunak I'd say, totally obscured as it is by the enveloping political crisis he has chosen to cause, with the UK media waiting for Suella's speech in the Commons today. It will hardly warrant a mention in the finance pages. He's at the stepping on rakes part of his premiership. Doomed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited November 2023

    A small drop in interest rates will save me thousands of pounds. That’s all I really care about. My fixed rate expiry in February 2024 beckons…

    I've just signed on for a 2 year fix from 1st February. An extra £230 a month on the mortgage. Thanks Rishi!
    What's the o/s, £150k or so ?

    Mid '25 remortgage for me, from 1.49% with about 182k remaining. Hopefully Iran and the USA can keep their missiles from each other in the middle east till then...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning

    A welcome drop in inflation to below 5% and fulfilling Sunak's promise to half it

    As far as Braverman is concerned, she seemed to believe that she was unsackable as she could blackmail Sunak into keeping her through some agreement they had made, but then Sunak is PM and his actions over WF and GFA meant he would not prejudice these by leaving the ECHR and finally had enough of her antics and rightly told her to go

    Braverman is widely disliked with 70% backing Sunak sacking her and it seems she does not have the support in the party she think she has

    I expect Sunak and Cleverly already have an answer to the SC on Rwanda, as they will already know the judgment, and Cleverly in the HOC later today will bring a refreshing and constructive response

    Anyway, I remain content with Sunak's move to the centre as I attend yet another medical consultation on my recent health issues

    Can I say how nice it is to see one of your "Good morning" comments? Let us hope for many many more.

    On inflation I do have to ask what the real world inflation is? The aim behind the pledge was to get a grip on the cost of living crisis - "halving inflation" sounds chunky.

    Suspect that people are still seeing prices going up more than their wages, and are confused why prices are not coming back down as promised. Yes, they weren't promised that, but this is what happens when you weaponise ignorance for political points. Inflation of 5% is still 2.5% the target, so prices which are unaffordable continue to get more unaffordable.

    Statistics vs lived experience. Tory activists beware if they start quoting statistics at people who know what their actual reality is...
    Did I hear the BBC say that Rishi had described the lower inflation figure as 'a cut in the cost of living'?
    Good luck with that one Rishi, aren’t you supposed to be the spreadsheet guy?

    Yes wages are now rising faster than prices, but we’re nowhere near where we were a couple of years ago and there’s still a lot of catching up to do.
    Not my wages!

    Who are all these people getting 6-10% pay rises?
    Not mine either! Public sector mostly, from the other day’s survey.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/strong-pay-growth-uk-spreads-public-sector-survey-shows-2023-11-13/
    Private Sector pay rises are still higher than Public Sector rises even now.

    The gap is a lot less but the former has been ahead of the latter by a massive margin for years
    Not everywhere. Pay freeze for all our staff here.
    Yes, my understanding of the stats is what BJO has said, but that's never been my experience. I wonder if the stats are distorted by some at the very top in the private sector?
    I think probably influenced by pay in the most squeezed parts of the service industry: hospitality (chef pay has rocketed), private healthcare etc. With pay freezes or small sub-inflation rises in other sectors. Year on year I'd expect the very top to see pay (or profit share / bonus) cuts this year, albeit from very high starting points.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

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    https://www.ft.com/content/ca81509b-e929-487f-8975-49d75dc4f78d

    Since the Conservatives won power in May 2010, overall real average pay (including bonuses) had risen by 5.5 per cent in the private sector by September 2022, but fallen by 5.9 per cent in the public sector. Startlingly, between January 2021 and September 2022, average real pay in the private sector fell by 1.5 per cent, but in the public sector pay fell by 7.7 per cent..
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