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Have a good cry Argentina, you have earned it – politicalbetting.com
Have a good cry Argentina, you have earned it – politicalbetting.com
In the UK we can sometimes get carried away demonising our politicians. But let’s be honest neither Rishi Sunak nor Keir Starmer are going to frighten anyone, they are as scary as a cup of hot Horlicks at bedtime. Argentina of the other hand has decided to show the world what scary looks like.
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Old Etonian too.
Keir Starmer is preparing to sack any Labour shadow minister who backs the ceasefire amendment tomorrow
Leadership thinks 10+ sackings may be needed
Labour source: “Support for this motion is not compatible with serving on the front bench”
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1724437869291360748?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/13/javier-milei-argentina-thatcher-praise-falklands-veterans
I do not have an issue with this, personally, but it hardly reeks of a determination to stop the boats.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/increasing-number-of-asylum-seekers-being-granted-work-permits/ar-AA1jSZOO?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=0440c2eb688046c08fa00b058054d4a5&ei=13
Although he’s also been quite lucky, that other political events are keeping the Labour civil war off the front pages.
Argentines are Italians who speak Spanish and think they're English.
How do you make your fortune in Argentina? Buy an Argentinian for what he's worth, and sell him for what he thinks he's worth.
Contract to build a bridge:
German contractor: $60m: $20m for design, $20m for materials, $20m for construction
Japanese contractor: $90m: $30m for design, $30m for materials, $30m for construction
Argentine Contractor: $180m: $60m for you, $60m for me and we'll get the Germans to build it.
Obviously in theory I'd be voting for the libertarian over the Peronist. But Jeez, it would take nerves of steel to do so when you're talking about your own immediate livelihood rather than just what-would-work-in-theory. The status quo is always the safe option.
Still, maybe Argentina has been screwed enough by Peronism that voters have little left to lose.
Politically, Milei has been variously described as far-right, ultraconservative, right-wing libertarian, and ultraliberal. Despite this, he identifies as a liberal, aligning specifically with minarchist and anarcho-capitalist principles. His views distinguish him in the Argentine political landscape and have garnered both public attention and political reactions. He has proposed the abolition of the Central Bank of Argentina,[6] which would result in a de facto dollarized economy, and a comprehensive overhaul of the country's fiscal and structural policies. Milei strongly opposes abortion, even in cases of rape,[7] and has suggested a referendum to reconsider the 2020 law (Voluntary Interruption of Pregnancy Bill) that legalized it.[8] His support for freedom of choice on topics, such as drugs, prostitution, marriage, sexual preference, and gender identity, have been contrasted to his opposition to abortion and euthanasia.
Beyond his professional and political life, Milei is known for his flamboyant personality, distinctive personal style, and strong media presence, both domestically and internationally. He criticizes comprehensive sex education in schools as a form of brainwashing, expressed skepticism towards COVID-19 vaccines, supports civilian firearm ownership, proposes to legalize the sale of human organs, promotes the far-right Cultural Marxism conspiracy theory, engages in climate change denial, and wants to restrict immigration of criminals...
Let's say you follow religion X and you live in a country that has a majority of other people who follow religion X. What happens if a bunch of your countrymen convert to a different religion or abandon any religion (as is happening with Christianity in the UK)? What does a "right to remain [a] majorit[y]" mean in that situation? Do you get to force your countrymen to not change religion? Do you get to expel them? What happens if your coreligionists just happen to have fewer kids and a minority group are a bit more fecund, until one day you are in the minority? Should your "right to remain [a] majorit[y]" mean you get to decide how many kids other people have?
It seems to be illiberal and undemocratic to state that a nation state must retain a certain religious or ethnic majority.
I guess you may be alluding to ideas around abolishing the Israeli state, subsuming it into some larger Israel/Palestine single state. That raises different questions. I think the people of Israel should get to decide what happens to them, so I would not want to see any change in the nation that is not supported by democratic majority. So, to take a different example, if Moldovans want to merge with Romania and cease to be the Republic of Moldova (and Romanians agree), then that should happen, and if Moldovans don't want to merge with Romania and they want Moldova to continue as a separate country, then that should happen.
If I was Argentinian I think I would probably take the chance on Milei's new vision after so many decades of failure by the usual suspects but it could so easily all go horribly wrong.
It is seemingly odd that almost all (if not all) South American countries have struggled to find a good stable governmental and economic platform. There are no compelling reasons why they should struggle as far as I can see. I suppose that all of Europe wrestled with this for many centuries, and went step by step, and didn't leap to where we are now.
I'd take one issue,
"Rishi Sunak nor Keir Starmer are going to frighten anyone, they are as scary as a cup of hot Horlicks at bedtime"
It's not so long ago we had Boris vs Corbyn - I think a fairer comparison.
https://twitter.com/CTVNews/status/1724207517234860529?
Went missing / has died......makes it sound like she went for a hike in the mountains, slipped and fell down, was recovered off the mountain, but died later in hospital.
There is only 1 Jewish majority nation however, Israel and after millions of Jews were murdered in Europe in the Holocaust and anti Semitism present in every other nation of the world it is no surprise the vast majority of Jews wish to keep Israel as the Jewish homeland. A place of safety if needed to move to if things ever get too bad for Jews again in their nation of residence
I do think that a set of very basic international rules - such as those covered by the war crimes and crimes against humanity laws which have been discussing - should also exist and Nation States should be held to account against them. This should, in theory at least, offer the sorts of protection we want to see for minorities, whther they are religious, racial or gender based.
Keir taking a firm line on this issue with his MPs can only, rightly, be good for him
Sure they have economic and social discontents, but so does everywhere else, more or less.
As Britain slides increasingly towards our own Peronism and corruption we shouldn't point the finger too much.
https://www.promarket.org/2021/09/12/chicago-boys-chile-friedman-neoliberalism/
Even Ukraine has been invaded with only some sanctions and weapons supplies to contain Putin, otherwise it is on its own
(same review as usual: well written, interesting to read, nothing to do with betting...
Thank you for the article. If you or others would like further details, here is an interesting link:
"Why Argentina is not rich", CaspianReport, YouTube, Oct 11, 2022, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu22RNjjrG0
Keir Starmer considers Labour Gaza conflict motion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67417726
That doesn't require a particular green government, just one that recognises the competitive price advantage for them.
The question is how you balance the rights of different people. Should we carve out a Kurdistan, making a bunch of non-Kurds suddenly minorities in a new nation?
Let's imagine a new religion emerged in Galilee, people believe in a new messiah called Hyufd. Hyufdism spreads and many Israeli Jews convert to Hyufidsm. One day, Judaism is no longer in a majority in Israel. (This has happened before, twice.) What happens? Are the choices of individuals to convert less important than the desire for a Jewish majority nation?
Every citizen of Israel should have equal rights, to worship what religion they want to (or how they want to), to follow what social customs and practices they want to, to speak what language they want to at home, to have the number of children they want to. Those rights, I suggest, trump any collective right of a majority to remain a majority.
Were Jews a minority in Israel even after Jesus walked the earth? The evidence is not clear. What is clear is it is now the only place they are genuinely safe from anti Semitism and fine kumbaya platitudes about universal human rights ain't much help when things really go bad in your nation of residence. As the Jews discovered the League of Nations was hopeless to protect them in Germany once the Nazis took over and as Ukraine has discovered the UN was also largely ineffective once Putin invaded, they had to fight to preserve their homeland themselves
A century ago, the phrase "he's as rich as an Argentine" was in common usage to describe anyone who was obscenely wealthy. Not any more.
I'd also dispute from this article the suggestion Milei offers much of a break from the past. He's a slightly different type of swivel-eyed populist loon from the established, Peronist kind. He's not coherent - the only vaguely sane choice was knocked out in Round 1.
https://twitter.com/demishassabis/status/1724452655454466489?
I would say something has to give, but then it did the last time they defaulted and they just returned to type.
*There was a time when the Times and the Telegraph would have had a man out there for this. Back in the days when I read the Telegraph for its foreign news, which felt a different animal from the Tory front end.
Soon to be Argentina Enterprises Ltd
Whereas the people killed by Hamas were killed as part of a mass atrocity. There is a *massive* difference.
Incidentally, there was an interesting article many, many moons ago called something like "A tale of two Rachels." It was about the way Rachel Corrie was celebrated and mourned, whilst another Rachel, blown up by a Palestinian bomber on a bus, was forgotten.
It's not easy to tell, but I think Christians became the majority in what we call Israel/Palestine today, at least in the Byzantine period. Later, Muslims became a majority. Both of those processes were largely due to conversion. Obviously Jews were very much a minority in recent history until Zionist immigration changed the situation.
I accept that one can and should be sceptical about kumbaya platitudes. Israel is under attack right now: people are dying. Fortunately, Israel isn't under any threat of losing. Ultimately, we want to get to a place where no-one is losing.
The only way Jews can ensure they can never be defeated and eliminated from the planet, as the Nazis wanted and some Jihadi militants now want is to maintain Israel for evermore as a Jewish majority nation and their ultimate place of sanctuary
The Conservative Party's experiment with populism is over
Matt Goodwin"
https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/what-suellas-sacking-means
The Cyprus Confidential investigation is based on 3.6 million confidential corporate records from companies providing offshore services in Cyprus, and has focused on its close financial relationship with Russia and now-sanctioned oligarchs, many of whom have used the island to manage their secret offshore holdings.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/14/cyprus-to-clamp-down-as-investigation-reveals-oligarchs-moved-assets-after-ukraine-invasion
"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 46% (+1)
CON 28% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 4% (+1)
via @Savanta_UK, 10 - 12 Nov"
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1724364029085245670
Of course a supranational body can't 100% enforce such principles on a recalcitrant or dissenting Nation State, nevertheless I think the more we introduce and support such structures, and the more teeth they have, the better. This should be the direction of travel imo rather than leaving them, ignoring them, defanging them, or generally giving them the proverbial finger and saying "nope, what the elected politicians of a country say goes as regards that country, end of".
2023-vintage Corbyn isn't 2000-vintage Kuddly Ken who was drawing in quite wide support from people who'd consider themselves centrist and Khan, whilst he has plenty of critics, is a sitting Mayor who a fair number of people consider is doing a decent job. He's not going to fold like Dobson, who'd obviously had his arm twisted by Blair to do it anyway. I mean Ken really blotted his copy book later on, maybe partly illness related but partly because he has "views". But in 2000, he was a newt-loving everyman, who was a bit red for some but basically an apparently good egg.
As late as 1965, GDP per head was on a par with Austria and Italy, and well ahead of places like Ireland, Spain, or Japan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina#/media/File:GDP_per_capita_in_US_Dollars,_1965,_Austria,_Italy,_Argentina,_Ireland,_Japan,_Greece,_Spain,_Chile,_Portugal,_Mexico,_Brazil.png
Goodwin's Law: as an online discussion grows longer (regardless of topic or scope), the probability of Matt Goodwin making a tendentious point about it somehow being the fault of the "elite consensus" approaches 1.
Think for a minute about all we have seen. Boris Johnson? Gone. Liz Truss? Gone. Suella Braverman? Gone. And none of it with a serious democratic mandate.
Was there a serious democratic mandate to recruit Truss or Suella in the first place? Tory members are not the electorate.
Homo sapiens can be a very nasty, aggressive species when faced with something it doesn’t like.
Ask Homo neanderthalis.
General Motors registers as Formula 1 power-unit supplier for 2028 - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/67419144
They know F1 is about going around corners quickly....not who has the biggest float in the parade
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67372493
A senior officer involved in the Stephen Lawrence murder case was corrupt, according to a secret Met Police report uncovered by the BBC.
It said Ray Adams was cleared by a corruption probe which relied on false testimony from a man linked to the family of one of Stephen's killers.
The revelation contradicts years of police denial about the role of corrupt officers in the case.
Mr Adams says he has asked the Met to investigate the allegations.
The Metropolitan Police did not answer the BBC's questions about the report's conclusions regarding Mr Adams.
The force said it will review material before deciding whether any further action is required.
Imran Khan, solicitor for Stephen's mother Baroness Lawrence, said the report about Mr Adams - a former commander, who was once head of criminal intelligence for the entire Met - was "dramatic, disturbing and shocking".
Sir William Macpherson's landmark 1998 public inquiry into the murder did not hear about this link between Mr Adams and the informant.
Fourteen years later, the Met said there was no suggestion of any relationship between the two...
Line of Duty was a documentary...
And it was on a Norwegian expedition ship, not by the Royal Navy !!!!!
http://www.tomgrossmedia.com/TheForgottenRachels.html
Then they started shooting British soldiers.
NEW - ARREST MADE: A man has been arrested for the manslaughter of the Nottingham Panthers ice hockey player Adam Johnson, who was killed in collision in a match against the Sheffield Steelers.
https://x.com/JayMitchinson/status/1724459651385680017?s=20
There are many peoples of the world who face oppression and who don't have their own majority nation state. (Some, like the Romany (who the Nazis also wanted to eliminate), have no ambitions for such. Other, like many Kurds or some Sikhs, do.) I don't believe creating majority nation states for the Kurds, Romany, Sikhs, Yazidis, Ossetians, Basques, etc. etc. etc. is necessary or feasible. We have to come up with a better solution to protect people than creating majority nation states.
Of course, Israel already exists, so it's a different situation. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the Zionism/Bundism debates of the early 20th century, Israel has been a nation state for three quarters of a century and I don't think that should change (unless so desired by the people of Israel). It seems likely that Israel will remain a majority Jewish nation for many decades. However, I don't believe that being so is the only way to protect Jews worldwide or that the rights of individual Israelis to be who they want to be should be overridden. My own country has come from being Christian majority to Christian minority in my lifespan. If Israel changes in similar ways, it changes.
You keep repeating the same points, HYUFD. You have not made clear what you want to happen. How would you maintain Israel as evermore a Jewish majority nation? If many Israelis converted to Christianity and threatened that majority, what measures would you want taken? If non-Jewish Israelis have more kids and the population shifts over time, what measures would you want taken?
This is of course wrong when it comes to normal weather modelling because the models are essentially just solving Navier-Stokes equations and aren't really biased in that way.
I wonder if this is? Be interesting to see how it copes with low frequency events.
If you can run accurate weather models on relatively normal hardware it is going to put a big dent in several companies...not least purveyors of supercomputers.
Which species no longer exist.
What does it mean: "From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free"? @netflix Hapless, Season 2
https://twitter.com/davidboxenhorn/status/1719723130418086030?
What if the decline of one majority were instead replaced by another that wanted to establish a different kind of state?