I’m wondering how Truss war-gamed all this in her comeback strategy?
Truss is yesterday's news, Braverman is the candidate for ERG ideologues now, Cleverly and Barclay the established Cabinet candidates if and when Sunak goes
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg delivers excoriating attack on PM on @GBNEWS saying: “Suella Braverman is right. The PM has repeatedly and manifestly not delivered on these promises.” He adds: “Sadly, this government no longer seems serious about solving illegal or even legal migration.”
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg delivers excoriating attack on PM on @GBNEWS saying: “Suella Braverman is right. The PM has repeatedly and manifestly not delivered on these promises.” He adds: “Sadly, this government no longer seems serious about solving illegal or even legal migration.”
He's upsetting Mogg, Braverman, The Spectator and GB News,
Calling it - he's on course to win the next election
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg delivers excoriating attack on PM on @GBNEWS saying: “Suella Braverman is right. The PM has repeatedly and manifestly not delivered on these promises.” He adds: “Sadly, this government no longer seems serious about solving illegal or even legal migration.”
Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Suella's diatribe contains explicit reference to a document on key priorities she agreed with Sunak in return for her backing:
This was a document with clear terms to which you agreed in October 2022 during your second leadership campaign.
I wonder why she hasn't included this document as an appendix to her letter?
If she is smart, she has the document, Sunak's signature is on it and she is saving it for the next round- a Sunday paper, perhaps.
If she is not smart, she doesn't have the document. Either she has lost it, or she never took a copy, or it was never written down on paper as such but she had an understanding...
I saw a bit on the BBC news at 6 which said that such a document "was not for today" (or words to that effect). Implies that they have said document and are waiting for the right time to use it.
When dealing with the top, obviously anything not in unambiguous writing will be dealt with as a misunderstanding, recollections many vary and all that.
What Braverman may find out, is that at this level, if you have the top man bang to rights on unambiguous signed paper it does not mean you win and he loses, it means that great effort has to go into destroying your standing and credibility.
So far I don't think there is evidence that Braverman is good at this politics malarkey. The letter is differently terrible from Dame Andrea's but still terrible. Perhaps she should study carefully the life of her college's founder, Margaret of Anjou.
Hilarious mini melt-down. I'm imagining you as some spotty No. 10 staffer who idolises George Osborne and dreams of one day being asked to get a latte for Dr No.
I’m wondering how Truss war-gamed all this in her comeback strategy?
Truss is yesterday's news, Braverman is the candidate for ERG ideologues now, Cleverly and Barclay the established Cabinet candidates if and when Sunak goes
You underestimate The Truss
Cometh the hour, cometh the Fabricant.
The sexual routines of the potato wig are no concern of ours.
Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Suella's diatribe contains explicit reference to a document on key priorities she agreed with Sunak in return for her backing:
This was a document with clear terms to which you agreed in October 2022 during your second leadership campaign.
I wonder why she hasn't included this document as an appendix to her letter?
If she is smart, she has the document, Sunak's signature is on it and she is saving it for the next round- a Sunday paper, perhaps.
If she is not smart, she doesn't have the document. Either she has lost it, or she never took a copy, or it was never written down on paper as such but she had an understanding...
I saw a bit on the BBC news at 6 which said that such a document "was not for today" (or words to that effect). Implies that they have said document and are waiting for the right time to use it.
When dealing with the top, obviously anything not in unambiguous writing will be dealt with as a misunderstanding, recollections many vary and all that.
What Braverman may find out, is that at this level, if you have the top man bang to rights on unambiguous signed paper it does not mean you win and he loses, it means that great effort has to go into destroying your standing and credibility.
So far I don't think there is evidence that Braverman is good at this politics malarkey. The letter is differently terrible from Dame Andrea's but still terrible. Perhaps she should study carefully the life of her college's founder, Margaret of Anjou.
Hilarious mini melt-down. I'm imagining you as some spotty No. 10 staffer who idolises George Osborne and dreams of one day being asked to get a latte for Dr No.
The average tweet by Joe Biden gets about 300k - 1m views
So Suella’s tweets are getting twenty times as many views as the President of the USA
If we believe this is legit, she will soon be global fuhrer. I am a touch skeptical
We’d have to look into how it is calculated but there are about 20m Twitter users in the U.K. and whilst the vast majority of them won’t follow politics as such, they will follow at least one news website. Said website will have linked to a lot of Braverman crap this week.
However it does still seem a stretch for them all to be clicking through, so I do think bots are part of it.
The Biden comparison isn’t quite right, since most of his tweets aren’t new making in themselves. Mostly.
It reflects well on Rishi, since the sense of her letter is that’s she’s been left in the corner with the safety scissors, glue, and glitter, and kept away from doing any real damage.
She clearly doesn’t have the self awareness to realise how idiotic she has made herself look.
The problem is not that Suella Braverman is right wing. It is that she postures, but is useless.
The letter - which of course is self serving - gives quite a convincing argument she isn’t useless - she has been thwarted
I’ve no idea if this is true. I am fairly sure it is not good news for Sunak
An almighty bust up is brewing in the Tories. Maybe they just need to split
Nah. I think the new top team- Sunak, Dowden, Cameron, Cleverley - will be pretty united and will happily face down the mutineers. There will be a battle after the election and I rather suspect Cleverley is being lined up by the party establishment with Badenoch as as the approved alternative. Braverman, or whoever the rightwing factionalists line up, will likely get squeezed out.
Braverman has rotten ratings with the public - she's no Boris - a paper tiger.
Ridiculous. Vanishingly few tweets even by global megastars get that kind of attention
Someone quite clever and powerful is gaming TwiX to aid Braverman, in a significant way. Who why and how?
Could be important if it continues. I wonder if it is AI
You’d instantly think the Russians, but then why? They either boost pro-Russians, or people who will divide society. One thing she’s not evinced, yet (but maybe Steve Bannon can work on this) is any particularly pro-Russian sentiments. And they are on the Palestinian / Iranian side in this battle.
So it would have to be a division tactic. If so then you’d expect similar patterns of social media boosting for other characters on her side of the argument (JRM say) and their opposite numbers on the other side (Piers Corbyn? George Galloway?).
Alternatively it’s just because everyone with an interest in UK politics is reading her tweets today, and reposting them like crazy. It could be that. Or a bit of both.
Ridiculous. Vanishingly few tweets even by global megastars get that kind of attention
Someone quite clever and powerful is gaming TwiX to aid Braverman, in a significant way. Who why and how?
Could be important if it continues. I wonder if it is AI
I have never seen Suella Braverman and Taylor Swift in the same room at the same time. Could her TwiX popularity be due to the fact that they are the same person? That girl next door charm is such a giveaway.
The average tweet by Joe Biden gets about 300k - 1m views
So Suella’s tweets are getting twenty times as many views as the President of the USA
If we believe this is legit, she will soon be global fuhrer. I am a touch skeptical
We’d have to look into how it is calculated but there are about 20m Twitter users in the U.K. and whilst the vast majority of them won’t follow politics as such, they will follow at least one news website. Said website will have linked to a lot of Braverman crap this week.
However it does still seem a stretch for them all to be clicking through, so I do think bots are part of it.
The Biden comparison isn’t quite right, since most of his tweets aren’t new making in themselves. Mostly.
Sunak gets a lot of Hindutva interest and amplification.
Hmmm. People's Polling are Matt Goodwin's mob, and they don't always release their tables.
Rishi Sunak’s premiership has been plunged into yet another crisis after new data showed Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party leading the Tories by 30 points.
PeoplePolling surveyed 1,581 people exclusively for GB News immediately after the Prime Minister conducted his reshuffle yesterday....
....Rishi Sunak’s premiership has been plunged into yet another crisis after new data showed Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party leading the Tories by 30 points.
PeoplePolling surveyed 1,581 people exclusively for GB News immediately after the Prime Minister conducted his reshuffle yesterday.
Sunak sacked controversial Home Secretary Suella Braverman following her incendiary article about pro-Palestine protesters.
He also appointed former Prime Minister David Cameron, who left Downing Street following the Brexit vote in 2016, to the Foreign Office.
Only 19 per cent claimed they would vote for the Conservative Party if a general election were held tomorrow.
Almost half of voters, 49 per cent, revealed they would vote for Labour.
Richard Tice’s Reform UK also looks likely to benefit from Tory woes as 11 per cent of respondents threw their weight behind the populist party.
Support for the Liberal Democrats stands at just nine per cent and the Green Party is registering around seven per cent.
Ridiculous. Vanishingly few tweets even by global megastars get that kind of attention
Someone quite clever and powerful is gaming TwiX to aid Braverman, in a significant way. Who why and how?
Could be important if it continues. I wonder if it is AI
You’d instantly think the Russians, but then why? They either boost pro-Russians, or people who will divide society. One thing she’s not evinced, yet (but maybe Steve Bannon can work on this) is any particularly pro-Russian sentiments. And they are on the Palestinian / Iranian side in this battle.
So it would have to be a division tactic. If so then you’d expect similar patterns of social media boosting for other characters on her side of the argument (JRM say) and their opposite numbers on the other side (Piers Corbyn? George Galloway?).
Alternatively it’s just because everyone with an interest in UK politics is reading her tweets today, and reposting them like crazy. It could be that. Or a bit of both.
I’ve noticed that pro-Israeli tweets and politicians get really high numbers. Hmm. But I don’t want to sound like a crank
Braverman is also getting a lot of replies and reposts and likes, so it’s a sophisticated operation if it is “an operation”
And there has to be some gaming here. No UK politician gets 18m views for a tweet, not even the PM (I’ve looked). One earlier this week, by Braverman, got 22m
NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say
— they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration
Lol.
She needs to think about how many embarrassing documents there are about her held by the Home Office, which will of course do it’s very best to stop any politicians from leaking them.
I mean, what’s her narrative. “I’m a gullible idiot - look, here’s the final proof”.
Electoral Calculus' model gives the Tories only 24 seats, which amusingly includes one gain from the SNP. But models like that can't really handle swings this large.
Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Suella's diatribe contains explicit reference to a document on key priorities she agreed with Sunak in return for her backing:
This was a document with clear terms to which you agreed in October 2022 during your second leadership campaign.
I wonder why she hasn't included this document as an appendix to her letter?
If she is smart, she has the document, Sunak's signature is on it and she is saving it for the next round- a Sunday paper, perhaps.
If she is not smart, she doesn't have the document. Either she has lost it, or she never took a copy, or it was never written down on paper as such but she had an understanding...
I saw a bit on the BBC news at 6 which said that such a document "was not for today" (or words to that effect). Implies that they have said document and are waiting for the right time to use it.
When dealing with the top, obviously anything not in unambiguous writing will be dealt with as a misunderstanding, recollections many vary and all that.
What Braverman may find out, is that at this level, if you have the top man bang to rights on unambiguous signed paper it does not mean you win and he loses, it means that great effort has to go into destroying your standing and credibility.
So far I don't think there is evidence that Braverman is good at this politics malarkey. The letter is differently terrible from Dame Andrea's but still terrible. Perhaps she should study carefully the life of her college's founder, Margaret of Anjou.
Hilarious mini melt-down. I'm imagining you as some spotty No. 10 staffer who idolises George Osborne and dreams of one day being asked to get a latte for Dr No.
Well spotted. How on earth did you know?
Something to do with the nutso veiled threats to send the boys round combined with the fact that the post was clearly written by a nobody.
The average tweet by Joe Biden gets about 300k - 1m views
So Suella’s tweets are getting twenty times as many views as the President of the USA
If we believe this is legit, she will soon be global fuhrer. I am a touch skeptical
We’d have to look into how it is calculated but there are about 20m Twitter users in the U.K. and whilst the vast majority of them won’t follow politics as such, they will follow at least one news website. Said website will have linked to a lot of Braverman crap this week.
However it does still seem a stretch for them all to be clicking through, so I do think bots are part of it.
The Biden comparison isn’t quite right, since most of his tweets aren’t new making in themselves. Mostly.
Sunak gets a lot of Hindutva interest and amplification.
Fair point. Hasn’t considered that.
The other day, I was musing over whether there’s a seat or two in the country where a “Modi for Sunak” campaign might move the dial.
A wonderful analogy from the conference I'm at. ChatGPT is like a humanities graduate. It has read a lot, can talk convincingly about anything, but has a hazy relationship with the truth and isn't very good at maths.
A wonderful analogy from the conference I'm at. ChatGPT is like a humanities graduate. It has read a lot, can talk convincingly about anything, but has a hazy relationship with the truth and isn't very good at maths.
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg delivers excoriating attack on PM on @GBNEWS saying: “Suella Braverman is right. The PM has repeatedly and manifestly not delivered on these promises.” He adds: “Sadly, this government no longer seems serious about solving illegal or even legal migration.”
Solving 'legal migration'?
If only her party had been in power for the last 13 years. Imagine what she could have done.
A wonderful analogy from the conference I'm at. ChatGPT is like a humanities graduate. It has read a lot, can talk convincingly about anything, but has a hazy relationship with the truth and isn't very good at maths.
Ridiculous. Vanishingly few tweets even by global megastars get that kind of attention
Someone quite clever and powerful is gaming TwiX to aid Braverman, in a significant way. Who why and how?
Could be important if it continues. I wonder if it is AI
You’d instantly think the Russians, but then why? They either boost pro-Russians, or people who will divide society. One thing she’s not evinced, yet (but maybe Steve Bannon can work on this) is any particularly pro-Russian sentiments. And they are on the Palestinian / Iranian side in this battle.
So it would have to be a division tactic. If so then you’d expect similar patterns of social media boosting for other characters on her side of the argument (JRM say) and their opposite numbers on the other side (Piers Corbyn? George Galloway?).
Alternatively it’s just because everyone with an interest in UK politics is reading her tweets today, and reposting them like crazy. It could be that. Or a bit of both.
I’ve noticed that pro-Israeli tweets and politicians get really high numbers. Hmm. But I don’t want to sound like a crank
Braverman is also getting a lot of replies and reposts and likes, so it’s a sophisticated operation if it is “an operation”
And there has to be some gaming here. No UK politician gets 18m views for a tweet, not even the PM (I’ve looked). One earlier this week, by Braverman, got 22m
Hmmm. People's Polling are Matt Goodwin's mob, and they don't always release their tables.
Rishi Sunak’s premiership has been plunged into yet another crisis after new data showed Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party leading the Tories by 30 points.
PeoplePolling surveyed 1,581 people exclusively for GB News immediately after the Prime Minister conducted his reshuffle yesterday....
....Rishi Sunak’s premiership has been plunged into yet another crisis after new data showed Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party leading the Tories by 30 points.
PeoplePolling surveyed 1,581 people exclusively for GB News immediately after the Prime Minister conducted his reshuffle yesterday.
Sunak sacked controversial Home Secretary Suella Braverman following her incendiary article about pro-Palestine protesters.
He also appointed former Prime Minister David Cameron, who left Downing Street following the Brexit vote in 2016, to the Foreign Office.
Only 19 per cent claimed they would vote for the Conservative Party if a general election were held tomorrow.
Almost half of voters, 49 per cent, revealed they would vote for Labour.
Richard Tice’s Reform UK also looks likely to benefit from Tory woes as 11 per cent of respondents threw their weight behind the populist party.
Support for the Liberal Democrats stands at just nine per cent and the Green Party is registering around seven per cent.
To my mind, the problem with much of the political right, in this country and in much of the rest of the world, is that they shout a lot, but are quite ineffectual in practice.
A much better strategy would be to talk moderate, and act right.
“Walk softly, and carry a big stick.”
But she quite persuasively explains in THE LETTER that she wanted to get things done but was constantly thwarted by number 10 and the civil service
I can well believe that on Rwanda. Most of them will find Rwanda distasteful and cruel blah blah. Which is fine - that’s a moral choice - but if that is your opinion don’t simultaneously make “Rwanda” a policy
My suspicion is that they wanted the credit for trying Rwanda, but they wanted to get knocked back, so they wouldn’t have to do it. Then they could go to the voters and say ooh look we tried vote for us to really do it next time!
Then they would have done nothing. Again
By contrast Braverman ACTUALLY wanted to do it
This has been going on forever though
My Enoch memory vault is a bit rusty, but there’s an interview with him in the early 70s where he says the exact same thing about Edward Heath’s government; that they wanted the credit for cutting immigration but weren’t prepared to actually do anything about it
Remember OGH’s golden rule: a rogue poll is a poll with a result you don’t like
Not a rogue. But an outlier. The Tory share has been drifting downwards all November. We aren't in mid-term anymore. But swingback. Shy Tories. Reform. There was a "decent" other poll today for the Tories showing them only 16 % behind. Which is precisely the MAXIMUM lead Ed Miliband ever had in any poll. A vast number of variables are going to have to come together perfectly for the Tories to be forcing a Hung Parliament. Unfortunately for them. A competent plan is one.
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
Ridiculous. Vanishingly few tweets even by global megastars get that kind of attention
Someone quite clever and powerful is gaming TwiX to aid Braverman, in a significant way. Who why and how?
Could be important if it continues. I wonder if it is AI
You’d instantly think the Russians, but then why? They either boost pro-Russians, or people who will divide society. One thing she’s not evinced, yet (but maybe Steve Bannon can work on this) is any particularly pro-Russian sentiments. And they are on the Palestinian / Iranian side in this battle.
So it would have to be a division tactic. If so then you’d expect similar patterns of social media boosting for other characters on her side of the argument (JRM say) and their opposite numbers on the other side (Piers Corbyn? George Galloway?).
Alternatively it’s just because everyone with an interest in UK politics is reading her tweets today, and reposting them like crazy. It could be that. Or a bit of both.
I’ve noticed that pro-Israeli tweets and politicians get really high numbers. Hmm. But I don’t want to sound like a crank
Braverman is also getting a lot of replies and reposts and likes, so it’s a sophisticated operation if it is “an operation”
And there has to be some gaming here. No UK politician gets 18m views for a tweet, not even the PM (I’ve looked). One earlier this week, by Braverman, got 22m
Indians?
I noticed that if I watch a video on Facebook and let it play some more the third or fourth, after a couple of train videos, is generally a piece of pro-Israel material. Is that because I've contributed to discussions on the topic on here? It's odd. Presumably someone is paying for it.
I can believe People Polling are skewed against the Tories (tho they might still be right). But more important is the movement. Tories down (and reform up?) which is what you’d expect if the reshuffle has bombed
ReformUK now just 1% behind the UKIP total Farage got in 2015 if that poll is correct and closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour, even if the LDs are down 2% on 2019 (which Cameron did help with). If replicated at a general election the Tories would get just 20 seats with Sunak and Hunt and Cleverly and Braverman all losing their seats.
Sunak needs to shore up his right flank fast if that poll is correct (though it is Goodwin and the 19% PP has the Tories on now is still higher than the 14% PP had the Truss led Tories on on 20th October last year) https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
I can believe People Polling are skewed against the Tories (tho they might still be right). But more important is the movement. Tories down (and reform up?) which is what you’d expect if the reshuffle has bombed
Ridiculous. Vanishingly few tweets even by global megastars get that kind of attention
Someone quite clever and powerful is gaming TwiX to aid Braverman, in a significant way. Who why and how?
Could be important if it continues. I wonder if it is AI
You’d instantly think the Russians, but then why? They either boost pro-Russians, or people who will divide society. One thing she’s not evinced, yet (but maybe Steve Bannon can work on this) is any particularly pro-Russian sentiments. And they are on the Palestinian / Iranian side in this battle.
So it would have to be a division tactic. If so then you’d expect similar patterns of social media boosting for other characters on her side of the argument (JRM say) and their opposite numbers on the other side (Piers Corbyn? George Galloway?).
Alternatively it’s just because everyone with an interest in UK politics is reading her tweets today, and reposting them like crazy. It could be that. Or a bit of both.
I’ve noticed that pro-Israeli tweets and politicians get really high numbers. Hmm. But I don’t want to sound like a crank
Braverman is also getting a lot of replies and reposts and likes, so it’s a sophisticated operation if it is “an operation”
And there has to be some gaming here. No UK politician gets 18m views for a tweet, not even the PM (I’ve looked). One earlier this week, by Braverman, got 22m
Indians?
I noticed that if I watch a video on Facebook and let it play some more the third or fourth, after a couple of train videos, is generally a piece of pro-Israel material. Is that because I've contributed to discussions on the topic on here? It's odd. Presumably someone is paying for it.
Well we know the Russians and Chinese are pumping out pro-pal material on TikTok. Maybe this is a counter operation by the pro-Israeli side
ReformUK now just 1% behind the UKIP total Farage got in 2015 if that poll is correct and closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour.
Sunak needs to shore up his right flank fast if that poll is correct (though it is Goodwin and the 19% PP has the Tories on now is still higher than the 14% PP had the Truss led Tories on on 20th October last year https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Are People Polling members of the British Polling Council?
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
That poll would not have caught any of the reaction to the reshuffle. And tbf maybe this one hasn’t either
Doesn’t it take a few days for political events to percolate down to polls?
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
ReformUK now just 1% behind the UKIP total Farage got in 2015 if that poll is correct and closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour.
Sunak needs to shore up his right flank fast if that poll is correct (though it is Goodwin and the 19% PP has the Tories on now is still higher than the 14% PP had the Truss led Tories on on 20th October last year https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Are People Polling members of the British Polling Council?
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
Well the Tories are deffo going into open infighting. Sunak brought that on with his “brilliant” reshuffle
NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say
— they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration
I have in my hand a piece of paper…
Suella who?
Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.
Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
That poll would not have caught any of the reaction to the reshuffle. And tbf maybe this one hasn’t either
Doesn’t it take a few days for political events to percolate down to polls?
ReformUK now just 1% behind the UKIP total Farage got in 2015 if that poll is correct and closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour, even if the LDs are down 2% on 2019 (which Cameron did help with). If replicated at a general election the Tories would get just 20 seats with Sunak and Hunt and Cleverly and Braverman all losing their seats.
Sunak needs to shore up his right flank fast if that poll is correct (though it is Goodwin and the 19% PP has the Tories on now is still higher than the 14% PP had the Truss led Tories on on 20th October last year) https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Compared to their last poll, the only change is Tories losing 2 pts to Reform
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
Well the Tories are deffo going into open infighting. Sunak brought that on with his “brilliant” reshuffle
The infighting was there whether open or not, and a reshuffle had been trailed for a long time. Bottom line is they needed to pick a direction for the last year in office, and they won't get all on board with that direction so best to have the argument now?
Not entirely convinced they've picked the most effective direction, but like Labour a few years ago the factions are pretty irreconcilable at the moment.
NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say
— they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration
I have in my hand a piece of paper…
Suella who?
Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.
Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
Well the Tories are deffo going into open infighting. Sunak brought that on with his “brilliant” reshuffle
Another year of this.
Jeez.
Britain totally adrift while we wait for this circus to end.
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
Well the Tories are deffo going into open infighting. Sunak brought that on with his “brilliant” reshuffle
The infighting was there whether open or not, and a reshuffle had been trailed for a long time. Bottom line is they needed to pick a direction for the last year in office, and they won't get all on board with that direction so best to have the argument now?
Not entirely convinced they've picked the most effective direction, but like Labour a few years ago the factions are pretty irreconcilable at the moment.
Sacking Braverman was a mistake; appointing Cameron was a mistake
To my mind, the problem with much of the political right, in this country and in much of the rest of the world, is that they shout a lot, but are quite ineffectual in practice.
A much better strategy would be to talk moderate, and act right.
“Walk softly, and carry a big stick.”
But she quite persuasively explains in THE LETTER that she wanted to get things done but was constantly thwarted by number 10 and the civil service
I can well believe that on Rwanda. Most of them will find Rwanda distasteful and cruel blah blah. Which is fine - that’s a moral choice - but if that is your opinion don’t simultaneously make “Rwanda” a policy
My suspicion is that they wanted the credit for trying Rwanda, but they wanted to get knocked back, so they wouldn’t have to do it. Then they could go to the voters and say ooh look we tried vote for us to really do it next time!
Then they would have done nothing. Again
By contrast Braverman ACTUALLY wanted to do it
This has been going on forever though
My Enoch memory vault is a bit rusty, but there’s an interview with him in the early 70s where he says the exact same thing about Edward Heath’s government; that they wanted the credit for cutting immigration but weren’t prepared to actually do anything about it
The public don't help, since they claim to want it and probably mean it, but it's not like they consistently punish those who do not deliver it, so I can see why politicians think noises would be enough most of the time.
I accept this poll may well be an outlier, but nonetheless it is objectively funny. Especially after the “greatest reshuffle in world history”
Lab 49% Con 19% Reform 11% LD 9% Green 7%
Chortle
Say what you like about John Major but at least in 1997 he largely kept the right behind him to get to 30% (with only small leakage to the Referendum party who got 3%).
Now Sunak on that poll has almost split the right in half, 30% still voting for rightwing parties but 11% going Reform and only 19% Tory.
However it is Goodwin and I expect other pollsters will have less dramatic a shift
NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say
— they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration
I have in my hand a piece of paper…
Suella who?
Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.
Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof
Which js really dangerous for Sunak
So two politicians came to an agreement between themselves. One has ditched it - and the other politician. Because he can.
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
I am struggling to work out how the Autumn statement can bring any boost to Tory poll numbers.
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
Well the Tories are deffo going into open infighting. Sunak brought that on with his “brilliant” reshuffle
The infighting was there whether open or not, and a reshuffle had been trailed for a long time. Bottom line is they needed to pick a direction for the last year in office, and they won't get all on board with that direction so best to have the argument now?
Not entirely convinced they've picked the most effective direction, but like Labour a few years ago the factions are pretty irreconcilable at the moment.
Sacking Braverman was a mistake; appointing Cameron was a mistake
Braverman did seem to want to be sacked in fairness, people have been speculating on that for months, at some point he had to accept she was the real boss or try to reassert authority.
The Cameron appointment was more just bizarre and unexpected.
I accept this poll may well be an outlier, but nonetheless it is objectively funny. Especially after the “greatest reshuffle in world history”
Lab 49% Con 19% Reform 11% LD 9% Green 7%
Chortle
It's certainly eye-catching.
What will be interesting to see is whether it shapes the narrative, and the reshuffle is talked about in the context of a 30 point polling deficit and Reform in double figures. Because that sort of narrative can be self-fulfilling.
NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say
— they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration
I have in my hand a piece of paper…
Suella who?
Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.
Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof
Which js really dangerous for Sunak
So two politicians came to an agreement between themselves. One has ditched it - and the other politician. Because he can.
NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say
— they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration
I have in my hand a piece of paper…
Suella who?
Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.
Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof
Which js really dangerous for Sunak
So two politicians came to an agreement between themselves. One has ditched it - and the other politician. Because he can.
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
Well the Tories are deffo going into open infighting. Sunak brought that on with his “brilliant” reshuffle
Another year of this.
Jeez.
Britain totally adrift while we wait for this circus to end.
Yes, my laughter is tinged with despair
It’s time for the Tories to go. Just eff off. Bereft of ideas, led by a silly man, spineless on policy, full of corruption, so lacking in talent they have to appoint a non-MP loser wanker as foreign secretary - enough!
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
Well the Tories are deffo going into open infighting. Sunak brought that on with his “brilliant” reshuffle
Another year of this.
Jeez.
Britain totally adrift while we wait for this circus to end.
I predict only 11 months 1 week until it ends, so well below a year, no problem.
General Election 24th October 2024, change in government 25th October, the 2 year anniversary for Rishi.
It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
Ahahahahahaha
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
I am struggling to work out how the Autumn statement can bring any boost to Tory poll numbers.
I don’t think it’ll shift their polling. I do think it’ll probably help along the longer term drift upwards in the blue wall and downwards in the red. It’s going to be very business focused statement.
That’s if the party isn’t already in open warfare by then. But do they have the numbers for a VONC? Not sure.
NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say
— they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration
I have in my hand a piece of paper…
Suella who?
Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.
Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof
Which js really dangerous for Sunak
is it?
How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?
All things being equal if this week’s reshuffle does have a net impact on the polls we might expect to see Ref up and Lib Dems down, with Labour and green stable and conservatives either slightly up or slightly down or flat, depending on whether they’ve managed to gain more from LDs than lose to Refuk.
Interesting we’re not seeing any sign of Labour left drift to Green despite the Palestine marches.
Comments
Calling it - he's on course to win the next election
Ridiculous. Vanishingly few tweets even by global megastars get that kind of attention
Someone quite clever and powerful is gaming TwiX to aid Braverman, in a significant way. Who why and how?
Could be important if it continues. I wonder if it is AI
She has blown her leadership chances. And I suspect she knows it.
NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say
— they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration
However it does still seem a stretch for them all to be clicking through, so I do think bots are part of it.
The Biden comparison isn’t quite right, since most of his tweets aren’t new making in themselves. Mostly.
So it would have to be a division tactic. If so then you’d expect similar patterns of social media boosting for other characters on her side of the argument (JRM say) and their opposite numbers on the other side (Piers Corbyn? George Galloway?).
Alternatively it’s just because everyone with an interest in UK politics is reading her tweets today, and reposting them like crazy. It could be that. Or a bit of both.
Deltapoll (1,840 sample, 10 - 13 November)
Lab 44 (-1)
Con 28 (+4)!!
LD 13 (+1)
Green 6 (-1)
Reform 4 (-2)
SNP 3 (-)
https://deltapoll.co.uk/polls/voteint231106-2
Rishi Sunak’s premiership has been plunged into yet another crisis after new data showed Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party leading the Tories by 30 points.
PeoplePolling surveyed 1,581 people exclusively for GB News immediately after the Prime Minister conducted his reshuffle yesterday....
....Rishi Sunak’s premiership has been plunged into yet another crisis after new data showed Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party leading the Tories by 30 points.
PeoplePolling surveyed 1,581 people exclusively for GB News immediately after the Prime Minister conducted his reshuffle yesterday.
Sunak sacked controversial Home Secretary Suella Braverman following her incendiary article about pro-Palestine protesters.
He also appointed former Prime Minister David Cameron, who left Downing Street following the Brexit vote in 2016, to the Foreign Office.
Only 19 per cent claimed they would vote for the Conservative Party if a general election were held tomorrow.
Almost half of voters, 49 per cent, revealed they would vote for Labour.
Richard Tice’s Reform UK also looks likely to benefit from Tory woes as 11 per cent of respondents threw their weight behind the populist party.
Support for the Liberal Democrats stands at just nine per cent and the Green Party is registering around seven per cent.
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/rishi-sunak-people-polling-rwanda-supreme-court
Braverman is also getting a lot of replies and reposts and likes, so it’s a sophisticated operation if it is “an operation”
And there has to be some gaming here. No UK politician gets 18m views for a tweet, not even the PM (I’ve looked). One earlier this week, by Braverman, got 22m
Indians?
She needs to think about how many embarrassing documents there are about her held by the Home Office, which will of course do it’s very best to stop any politicians from leaking them.
I mean, what’s her narrative. “I’m a gullible idiot - look, here’s the final proof”.
https://twitter.com/PipsFunFacts/status/1724540049880990111
Lab 49%
Con 19%
Reform 11%
LD 9%
Green 7%"
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1433390/thread
The other day, I was musing over whether there’s a seat or two in the country where a “Modi for Sunak” campaign might move the dial.
Families dinners must be a blast.
Struggling to square with the latest view of "Cruella" and I suspect it's entirely performative.
The Tory share has moved 2% since the last poll.
Plus it is People's Polling, they always have the Tories much lower than the other pollsters.
I reckon it'll get the green light. Not going to bet on it though
And remarkably you're right.
It isn't as bad as all that.
I used to think that the feminisation of politics would lead to less ego, less posturing, and less, well, politicking.
Liz, Nad, and Suella have certainly been a learning experience.
I was right. I said the reshuffle was a “catastrophe”. It is a catastrophe
I can only assume this poll is dodgy in a whole world of ways.
A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
Brilliant, now it's women's fault.
Millions of them! And thank god, because otherwise the Tories would be polling lower than Mebyon Kernow
My Enoch memory vault is a bit rusty, but there’s an interview with him in the early 70s where he says the exact same thing about Edward Heath’s government; that they wanted the credit for cutting immigration but weren’t prepared to actually do anything about it
We aren't in mid-term anymore.
But swingback. Shy Tories. Reform.
There was a "decent" other poll today for the Tories showing them only 16 % behind.
Which is precisely the MAXIMUM lead Ed Miliband ever had in any poll.
A vast number of variables are going to have to come together perfectly for the Tories to be forcing a Hung Parliament.
Unfortunately for them. A competent plan is one.
Suella who?
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=19&LAB=49&LIB=9&Reform=11&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.5&SCOTLAB=33.5&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=34&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
Sunak needs to shore up his right flank fast if that poll is correct (though it is Goodwin and the 19% PP has the Tories on now is still higher than the 14% PP had the Truss led Tories on on 20th October last year)
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Doesn’t it take a few days for political events to percolate down to polls?
I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
Lab 49%
Con 19%
Reform 11%
LD 9%
Green 7%
Chortle
Not entirely convinced they've picked the most effective direction, but like Labour a few years ago the factions are pretty irreconcilable at the moment.
Which js really dangerous for Sunak
Jeez.
Britain totally adrift while we wait for this circus to end.
Now Sunak on that poll has almost split the right in half, 30% still voting for rightwing parties but 11% going Reform and only 19% Tory.
However it is Goodwin and I expect other pollsters will have less dramatic a shift
Isn't that politics 101?
The Cameron appointment was more just bizarre and unexpected.
What will be interesting to see is whether it shapes the narrative, and the reshuffle is talked about in the context of a 30 point polling deficit and Reform in double figures. Because that sort of narrative can be self-fulfilling.
George Mann
@sgfmann
·
3m
Daily Express: War is declared #TomorrowsPapersToday
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election
It’s time for the Tories to go. Just eff off. Bereft of ideas, led by a silly man, spineless on policy, full of corruption, so lacking in talent they have to appoint a non-MP loser wanker as foreign secretary - enough!
For God’s sake: GO
General Election 24th October 2024, change in government 25th October, the 2 year anniversary for Rishi.
That’s if the party isn’t already in open warfare by then. But do they have the numbers for a VONC? Not sure.
How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?
They just see division and chaos.
Interesting we’re not seeing any sign of Labour left drift to Green despite the Palestine marches.