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Fewer than half of Tory voters want Sunak to keep Braverman as Home Secretary – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.

    Adam Smith was a remainer...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Truss is expected to turn up every year for the rest of her life, and every year everybody is going to ask "Who is that and why is she there?"
    Will Sunak fly back every year from LA?
    On a private jet
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,400
    Scott_xP said:

    @MattChorley

    HAPPY RESHUFFLE EVE?

    💥Grid empty (ht @MrHarryCole )
    💥Whitehall officials apparently “preparing” for change
    💥Ministers plotting/panicking/packing
    💥Tipped by colleagues for chop inc Barclay, Coffey “and Suella obviously”
    💥No10 tonight:🤐

    Can’t wait…

    Deckchairs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Minor correction: November 11th is now Veterans Day in the US.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Day

    (I forget who made that error.)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Medlars picked on my visit to Cambridge. Huge crop and nicely rotting. I spotted the tree a couple of years ago. Never found one I could get access to before. Lovely flavours. Very messy to process though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Scott_xP said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Truss is expected to turn up every year for the rest of her life, and every year everybody is going to ask "Who is that and why is she there?"
    Will Sunak fly back every year from LA?
    Why should he? They know how to do it in LA.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    kjh said:

    Medlars picked on my visit to Cambridge. Huge crop and nicely rotting. I spotted the tree a couple of years ago. Never found one I could get access to before. Lovely flavours. Very messy to process though.

    We've got a big medlar tree, full of fruit this year. What do we do with them?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    The Danish government is run by passably sane people who on the whole spend that money wisely and well in ways that benefit the Danish people.

    Can you imagine a government advised by Simon Case and containing Richard Burgon doing either of those? Spending it on cheap booze and backhanders for their mates, more like it.

    And Sunak's worse.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
  • As a Conservative Party member I am really horrified about the possibility of Braverman being leader or PM. It's not just a left right thing I just don't feel she's a decent enough person.
    But whilst she's a poor Home Secretary (and we've had some poor ones under Blair as well), in some ways I don't mind her staying in post a bit longer, if that just shows everyone why she should not be leader and makes sure she never us.. I'm not knocking any doors for her in 2029.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783
    Scott_xP said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Truss is expected to turn up every year for the rest of her life, and every year everybody is going to ask "Who is that and why is she there?"
    "OMG the Cenotaph has fallen down! Why does she keep shouting 'Growth!'?"
  • DougSeal said:

    Teach our kids to think.

    Teach our kids moral courage.

    Give us the strength to show them how to do both now.

    🎶Because the greatest love of all
    Is happening to me
    I found the greatest love of all
    Inside of me
    The greatest love of all
    Is easy to achieve
    Learning to love yourself
    It is the greatest love of all 🎶

    Never had you down as a Whitney fan CR
    I don't know why I like it.

    I just do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Bari Weiss's essay, "End DEI", is insightful. And, like everything else I've read by her, it has a clarity that more of us should try to emulate. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/end-dei-bari-weiss-jews

    Sample: "What I saw [20 years ago as an undergraduate] was a worldview that replaced basic ideas of good and evil with a new rubric: the powerless (good) and the powerful (bad). It replaced lots of things. Colorblindness with race-obsession. Ideas with identity. Debate with denunciation. Persuasion with public shaming. The rule of law with the fury of the mob."

    Judging people by the color of their skin, rather than the content of their character.

    Having such heterodox ideas forced her to leave the NYT. In spite of her ticking several "diversity" boxes.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bari_Weiss

    The NYT is a seriously flawed publication, but not quite in the way you say.

    NYT covering Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” remark vs NYT covering Donald Trump’s “vermin” remark.
    https://twitter.com/TUSK81/status/1723544091341062582
    He really said that?!
    What did he say? The tweet doesn't have any quote from him? (That I can see - as a non-twitter/x premium-double-plus-good subscriber anyway).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @MattChorley

    HAPPY RESHUFFLE EVE?

    💥Grid empty (ht @MrHarryCole )
    💥Whitehall officials apparently “preparing” for change
    💥Ministers plotting/panicking/packing
    💥Tipped by colleagues for chop inc Barclay, Coffey “and Suella obviously”
    💥No10 tonight:🤐

    Can’t wait…

    Deckchairs.
    It's only five minutes since the last reshuffle.

    (Well, 31st August, so less than three months.)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kjh said:

    Medlars picked on my visit to Cambridge. Huge crop and nicely rotting. I spotted the tree a couple of years ago. Never found one I could get access to before. Lovely flavours. Very messy to process though.

    We've got a big medlar tree, full of fruit this year. What do we do with them?
    Envy!

    Got to let them rot first. Then squeeze out the brown goo. You then have to remove the stones. All very messy and you need a lot. I cooked mine up with Muscovado or Molasses and used it as a layer in the base of custard tarts. Taste of sticky toffee pudding. But there is a lot more you can do that I haven't tried yet. One I want to do is medlar jelly which I enjoy with cheese. Need to look up on internet as haven't tried to make that yet.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    It's an article of faith for neolibs - it doesn't need evidence (which is just as well).
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783

    Nigelb said:

    Brown, Blair and Major manage to all effectively look the same age there, whereas Cameron doesn't look too far off where he was in 2016.

    I presume Boris is moonlighting as Doc Brown in the BTTF stage production.

    Apart from looking dishevelled, the thing that struck me that he was the only former PM not wearing a coat.

    He's so disorganised, it is what was inevitable about his premiership unravelling.
    Hairstyle even looks like Michael Foot.
    Has he gone gray ?
    I know somebody who occasionally gets to see Boris Johnson up close and personal (no, not like that) and they are convinced Boris Johnson is developing a bald patch which he is desperate to hide.
    I think there were some telling shots when he was still doing PMQs- some of the camera angles in the Chamber are pretty brutal.

    Mostly because I remember developing a BoJo=Samson theory.

    He's not coming back.
    I think if he had the guts to go 'full shave' he could have a touch of the Mussolini about him.

    In many senses.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    The Danish government is run by passably sane people who on the whole spend that money wisely and well in ways that benefit the Danish people.

    Can you imagine a government advised by Simon Case and containing Richard Burgon doing either of those? Spending it on cheap booze and backhanders for their mates, more like it.

    And Sunak's worse.
    I doubt Simon Case will be advising the next Labour government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited November 2023

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    It's an article of faith for neolibs - it doesn't need evidence (which is just as well).
    They have a remarkably well balanced (annd successful) economy for such a small country.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denmark#Economy

    And of course Novo Nordisk’s new GLP1 diet drug is going to result in a massive boost to GDP over the next few years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    edited November 2023
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    Where's your evidence for the notion that the Government can just take bigger and bigger chunks out of the productive economy and it will have no effect on the growth of the economy? Why do governments place taxes on things they want people to buy less of if your fanciful notion of the all-you-can-tax economy is true? At least my argument has some semblance of logic underpinning it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    The Danish government is run by passably sane people who on the whole spend that money wisely and well in ways that benefit the Danish people.

    Can you imagine a government advised by Simon Case and containing Richard Burgon doing either of those? Spending it on cheap booze and backhanders for their mates, more like it.

    And Sunak's worse.
    I doubt Simon Case will be advising the next Labour government.
    Unless there is a wholesale clearout of the top echelons of the Civil Service it will make little difference. They're all much of muchness.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Awkward...

    https://news.sky.com/story/fa-council-member-apologises-after-claiming-hitler-would-be-proud-of-israels-prime-minister-13006505

    FA Council member apologises after claiming 'Hitler would be proud of Israel's prime minister'
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    It's an article of faith for neolibs - it doesn't need evidence (which is just as well).
    Now now. The much-vaunted 'Scandi' economies got rich with low tax and low regulation, and since they switched, they've been on a slow, natural-resource insulated descent. If you have a shred of data to show me dynamic growth in Denmark's economy correlating directly with the growth of its regulatory and tax burden, by all means share it. You won't, because it won't exist. It's fantasy economics.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    So, basically, it's like every other policy she's ever come up with in her life?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited November 2023

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    Where's your evidence for the notion that the Government can just take bigger and bigger chunks out of the productive economy and it will have no effect on the growth of the economy? Why do governments place taxes on things they want people to buy less of if your fanciful notion of the all-you-can-tax economy is true? At least my argument has some semblance of logic underpinning it.
    It’s not ‘bigger and bigger’.
    https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/oekonomi/offentlig-oekonomi/skatter-og-afgifter

    They just have a relatively high tax to GDP ration, which works fine for them.
    It’s you who needs to produce evidence for your assertion.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brown, Blair and Major manage to all effectively look the same age there, whereas Cameron doesn't look too far off where he was in 2016.

    I presume Boris is moonlighting as Doc Brown in the BTTF stage production.

    Apart from looking dishevelled, the thing that struck me that he was the only former PM not wearing a coat.

    He's so disorganised, it is what was inevitable about his premiership unravelling.
    Hairstyle even looks like Michael Foot.
    Has he gone gray ?
    I know somebody who occasionally gets to see Boris Johnson up close and personal (no, not like that) and they are convinced Boris Johnson is developing a bald patch which he is desperate to hide.
    I think there were some telling shots when he was still doing PMQs- some of the camera angles in the Chamber are pretty brutal.

    Mostly because I remember developing a BoJo=Samson theory.

    He's not coming back.
    I think if he had the guts to go 'full shave' he could have a touch of the Mussolini about him.

    In many senses.
    Or even the "Ch" word.
  • I see Sewer Braverman has doubled down on social media this evening.

    Over to you Rishi...

    Perhaps we could extradite her to Rwanda....?
    Gaza?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    So, basically, it's like every other policy she's ever come up with in her life?
    She has come up with some ok ideas but this one is completely mad. It is totally reckless.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    darkage said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    So, basically, it's like every other policy she's ever come up with in her life?
    She has come up with some ok ideas but this one is completely mad. It is totally reckless.
    Reckless, or with intent ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    She’s likely to have plenty of time on the backbenches.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,152
    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Amazing how we have pretty much all gone through a sequence since the 2019 GE of:

    1. Labour will take at least two elections to demolish that 80 seat majority.
    2. The Tories may struggle to maintain a clear majority next time.
    3. We could be heading for a Labour-led hung parliament.
    4. We could be heading for a small Labour majority.
    5. We could be heading for a 1997-style Labour landslide...

    ... and we're now edging into:

    6. The Tories might not even be the official opposition!

    There's a piece in the draft section of the PB servers which says

    'Was the 2019 election for the Tories what. 1906* was for the Liberals?'

    I may finish it soon.

    *or 1910, which is the reason I haven't finished it.

    I may need to speak to @ydoethur to hear his thoughts.
    As much as I would like this to be true I’m not sure it is. A major factor in the decline of the Liberals was the emergence of a party which could better represent one of its core constituencies, unionised labour. Unless a viable party emerges that can win the right of centre, patriotic type of vote then the Tories will always have enough support to remain the official opposition.

    Incidentally I’ve always thought it was a tragedy that Labour eclipsed the Liberals as the second party because in reality they were much worse at competing with the Conservatives as a party of government. The old Liberal Party could put together a far wider coalition of voters than Labour has ever been able to do with the exception of Blair. We might have been better governed throughout the 20th century if the Tories weren’t quite so electorally dominant.
    The Liberals won majorities in 1859 (for a given value of 'Liberal' since the party didn't actually exist until after the election) 1865, and 1868.

    Then in 1880 and 1906.

    All those elections bar the last have in common that they were fought on a very restricted franchise.

    They weren't actually very good at appealing to mass segments of the population. After the 1885 reforms, which widened the franchise to effectively the majority of adult males, they won one overall majority. That was forty years before Labour emerged.

    In particular, they were opposed to votes for women because they knew that women were unlikely to vote Liberal in large numbers (with very rare exceptions - 1906 would have been one).
    If we went back to a franchise restricted to the top 10-20% by wealth and property that would do more for Liberal prospects than PR would, the typical LD voter now an upper middle class Remainer. Won't happen of course
    I sometimes like to consider various restricted franchises as a thought-experiment. For example, suppose you restricted the franchise only to people who were parents, on the basis that only parents have a long-term stake in the country? What might be the result?

    Would it encourage people to have children a bit earlier, to gain a vote? Aside from the after difference, how differently do childless people vote?
    That's an interesting thought experiment.

    I think it would be quite similar to the way things work now with the grey vote. Only instead of the Tories pandering to pensioners at the expense of the rest of us, you'd have the main parties tripping over each other to offer parent-friendly policies.

    People like me, childless by choice, would probably just leave the country, on the basis of a) being disenfranchised and b) seeing an increasing amount of our taxes being spent on things we don't use in ways we can't change. The tax take and population may actually shrink as a result.

    Then you have people who are childless through infertility. People literally born without a vote. That's before getting into the complexities of gay people, transgender people, etc.

    I'm not sure I would want to live in a parent-ocracy. At least with a gerontocracy, I can guarantee I'm going to get old (or won't be around to care).

    If you want to raise birth rates, I'd do it with tax breaks. An additional 10% off your taxes for every additional child. Pop ten out and never pay tax again! Breed for Britain, etc...



    How about we turn it around: the moment you have a child, you lose your vote?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Genuine question: is there generous welfare in the US?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited November 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    She’s likely to have plenty of time on the backbenches.
    She should get plenty of time, certainly.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited November 2023

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Genuine question: is there generous welfare in the US?
    AIUI in places like San Fran it can get pretty generous for the homeless, yes - tho that might be assessed against the low bar of American welfare, in general

    I have read quite widely on this. I am fascinated by divergent American trends: a supposedly booming economy, yet with collapsing life expectancy, bad infant mortality, and so many other indicators flashing red. It is a mystery, and I love those
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Quite an interesting and even handed review of Nads' book. Interestingly, Dr No isn't Dougie Smith, as they are referred to separately. https://conservativehome.com/2023/11/10/book-review-dorries-blames-the-downfall-of-johnson-on-a-shadowy-group-of-fixers-led-by-dr-no/
  • ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Bari Weiss's essay, "End DEI", is insightful. And, like everything else I've read by her, it has a clarity that more of us should try to emulate. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/end-dei-bari-weiss-jews

    Sample: "What I saw [20 years ago as an undergraduate] was a worldview that replaced basic ideas of good and evil with a new rubric: the powerless (good) and the powerful (bad). It replaced lots of things. Colorblindness with race-obsession. Ideas with identity. Debate with denunciation. Persuasion with public shaming. The rule of law with the fury of the mob."

    Judging people by the color of their skin, rather than the content of their character.

    Having such heterodox ideas forced her to leave the NYT. In spite of her ticking several "diversity" boxes.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bari_Weiss

    The NYT is a seriously flawed publication, but not quite in the way you say.

    NYT covering Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” remark vs NYT covering Donald Trump’s “vermin” remark.
    https://twitter.com/TUSK81/status/1723544091341062582
    He really said that?!
    What did he say? The tweet doesn't have any quote from him? (That I can see - as a non-twitter/x premium-double-plus-good subscriber anyway).
    Donald Trump said (or wrote):-

    "In honor of our great veterans on Veteran's Day, we
    pledge to you that we will root out the Communists,
    Marxists, Fascists, and Radical Left Thugs that live like
    vermin within the confines of our Country, lie, steal,
    and cheat on Elections, and will do anything possible,
    whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the
    American Dream. The threat from outside forces is far
    less sinister, dangerous, and grave, than the threat
    from within. Despite the hatred and anger of the
    Radical Left Lunatics who want to destroy our Country,
    we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"




    (Retyped by me so E&OE.)
  • Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    So, basically, it's like every other policy she's ever come up with in her life?
    She has come up with some ok ideas but this one is completely mad. It is totally reckless.
    Reckless, or with intent ?
    I just can't understand it. All MP's will have a vast amount of casework to do with homeless issues. People are largely sympathetic to homeless people, more so than in earlier times. This is so idiotic it just astounding, it is hard to really put it in to words.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
  • Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.

    Yeah, it's like a war zone!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.

    Yeah, it's like a war zone!
    Like Guy Fawkes, you are blowing it up out of all proportion.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,400
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
    There was a tent city in Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    edited November 2023

    Quite an interesting and even handed review of Nads' book. Interestingly, Dr No isn't Dougie Smith, as they are referred to separately. https://conservativehome.com/2023/11/10/book-review-dorries-blames-the-downfall-of-johnson-on-a-shadowy-group-of-fixers-led-by-dr-no/

    And in other Nad news, after being embarrassed by Nick Robinson on Today, when she denied the existence of Bojo's gold wallpaper and he retorted that he'd been shown it, it turns out what he actually saw was a red wall. A painted red wall.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12738715/Radio-4-Nick-Robinsons-flippant-apology-row-Boriss-non-existent-gold-wallpaper-Tories-tell-record-straight-live-air.html?ico=related-replace

    So it seems she's not the only one with a chequered relationship with the truth.
  • darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    So, basically, it's like every other policy she's ever come up with in her life?
    She has come up with some ok ideas but this one is completely mad. It is totally reckless.
    Reckless, or with intent ?
    I just can't understand it. All MP's will have a vast amount of casework to do with homeless issues. People are largely sympathetic to homeless people, more so than in earlier times. This is so idiotic it just astounding, it is hard to really put it in to words.
    It is just about attention and division, not logic.
  • ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Bari Weiss's essay, "End DEI", is insightful. And, like everything else I've read by her, it has a clarity that more of us should try to emulate. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/end-dei-bari-weiss-jews

    Sample: "What I saw [20 years ago as an undergraduate] was a worldview that replaced basic ideas of good and evil with a new rubric: the powerless (good) and the powerful (bad). It replaced lots of things. Colorblindness with race-obsession. Ideas with identity. Debate with denunciation. Persuasion with public shaming. The rule of law with the fury of the mob."

    Judging people by the color of their skin, rather than the content of their character.

    Having such heterodox ideas forced her to leave the NYT. In spite of her ticking several "diversity" boxes.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bari_Weiss

    The NYT is a seriously flawed publication, but not quite in the way you say.

    NYT covering Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” remark vs NYT covering Donald Trump’s “vermin” remark.
    https://twitter.com/TUSK81/status/1723544091341062582
    He really said that?!
    What did he say? The tweet doesn't have any quote from him? (That I can see - as a non-twitter/x premium-double-plus-good subscriber anyway).
    Donald Trump said (or wrote):-

    "In honor of our great veterans on Veteran's Day, we
    pledge to you that we will root out the Communists,
    Marxists, Fascists, and Radical Left Thugs that live like
    vermin within the confines of our Country, lie, steal,
    and cheat on Elections, and will do anything possible,
    whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the
    American Dream. The threat from outside forces is far
    less sinister, dangerous, and grave, than the threat
    from within. Despite the hatred and anger of the
    Radical Left Lunatics who want to destroy our Country,
    we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"




    (Retyped by me so E&OE.)
    It has just occurred to me that depending how you view the comma after "Country" in the fourth line, Trump might be hiding the truth in plain sight. Does the rest of the sentence from "lie, steal," onwards belong to the list of things Communists and Fascists do, or the list of things "we will" do?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Quite an interesting and even handed review of Nads' book. Interestingly, Dr No isn't Dougie Smith, as they are referred to separately. https://conservativehome.com/2023/11/10/book-review-dorries-blames-the-downfall-of-johnson-on-a-shadowy-group-of-fixers-led-by-dr-no/

    And in other Nad news, after being embarrassed by Nick Robinson on Today, when she denied the existence of Bojo's gold wallpaper and he retorted that he'd been shown it, it turns out what he actually saw was a red wall. A painted red wall.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12738715/Radio-4-Nick-Robinsons-flippant-apology-row-Boriss-non-existent-gold-wallpaper-Tories-tell-record-straight-live-air.html?ico=related-replace

    So it seems she's not the only one with a chequered relationship with the truth.
    She doesn't have a chequered relationship with the truth.

    That implies she tells it sometimes.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amazing how we have pretty much all gone through a sequence since the 2019 GE of:

    1. Labour will take at least two elections to demolish that 80 seat majority.
    2. The Tories may struggle to maintain a clear majority next time.
    3. We could be heading for a Labour-led hung parliament.
    4. We could be heading for a small Labour majority.
    5. We could be heading for a 1997-style Labour landslide...

    ... and we're now edging into:

    6. The Tories might not even be the official opposition!

    No we aren't, maybe 6 might have been possible last October, it certainly isn't now.

    Given the economic situation and inflation Starmer will face if he becomes PM I certainly wouldn't count on his getting a long honeymoon either
    Draw a straight trend line through the Tory support chart on this and think long and hard about where it takes you to by next October.

    image
    Around 25-30% of the vote but once Labour are in power they are responsible for the economy
    Nah we'll do what you did and spend at least ten years saying it was all down to the mess you left us with.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited November 2023
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
    There was a tent city in Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986.
    Hmm. Was there? I was actually living very near to Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986. I don't remember anything like a tent city as we see now in west coast USA. Some homeless? Yes, for sure, also on the Embankment and around the Strand
  • ydoethur said:

    Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.

    Yeah, it's like a war zone!
    Like Guy Fawkes, you are blowing it up out of all proportion.
    Must be the Israeli Diwali Force!
  • Quite an interesting and even handed review of Nads' book. Interestingly, Dr No isn't Dougie Smith, as they are referred to separately. https://conservativehome.com/2023/11/10/book-review-dorries-blames-the-downfall-of-johnson-on-a-shadowy-group-of-fixers-led-by-dr-no/

    And in other Nad news, after being embarrassed by Nick Robinson on Today, when she denied the existence of Bojo's gold wallpaper and he retorted that he'd been shown it, it turns out what he actually saw was a red wall. A painted red wall.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12738715/Radio-4-Nick-Robinsons-flippant-apology-row-Boriss-non-existent-gold-wallpaper-Tories-tell-record-straight-live-air.html?ico=related-replace

    So it seems she's not the only one with a chequered relationship with the truth.
    Much Ado About Nothing. It looks like it is Jeremy Hunt's jokes about gold wallpaper that caused the confusion. I've bought Nad's book but not read it yet.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Amazing how we have pretty much all gone through a sequence since the 2019 GE of:

    1. Labour will take at least two elections to demolish that 80 seat majority.
    2. The Tories may struggle to maintain a clear majority next time.
    3. We could be heading for a Labour-led hung parliament.
    4. We could be heading for a small Labour majority.
    5. We could be heading for a 1997-style Labour landslide...

    ... and we're now edging into:

    6. The Tories might not even be the official opposition!

    There's a piece in the draft section of the PB servers which says

    'Was the 2019 election for the Tories what. 1906* was for the Liberals?'

    I may finish it soon.

    *or 1910, which is the reason I haven't finished it.

    I may need to speak to @ydoethur to hear his thoughts.
    As much as I would like this to be true I’m not sure it is. A major factor in the decline of the Liberals was the emergence of a party which could better represent one of its core constituencies, unionised labour. Unless a viable party emerges that can win the right of centre, patriotic type of vote then the Tories will always have enough support to remain the official opposition.

    Incidentally I’ve always thought it was a tragedy that Labour eclipsed the Liberals as the second party because in reality they were much worse at competing with the Conservatives as a party of government. The old Liberal Party could put together a far wider coalition of voters than Labour has ever been able to do with the exception of Blair. We might have been better governed throughout the 20th century if the Tories weren’t quite so electorally dominant.
    The Liberals won majorities in 1859 (for a given value of 'Liberal' since the party didn't actually exist until after the election) 1865, and 1868.

    Then in 1880 and 1906.

    All those elections bar the last have in common that they were fought on a very restricted franchise.

    They weren't actually very good at appealing to mass segments of the population. After the 1885 reforms, which widened the franchise to effectively the majority of adult males, they won one overall majority. That was forty years before Labour emerged.

    In particular, they were opposed to votes for women because they knew that women were unlikely to vote Liberal in large numbers (with very rare exceptions - 1906 would have been one).
    If we went back to a franchise restricted to the top 10-20% by wealth and property that would do more for Liberal prospects than PR would, the typical LD voter now an upper middle class Remainer. Won't happen of course
    A policy of grinding down the lower classes/rejoin the EU, would be a runner, if we had the 1867 franchise.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,073
    edited November 2023

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    A necklace?
    No, I think that was Leon.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,940
    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Amazing how we have pretty much all gone through a sequence since the 2019 GE of:

    1. Labour will take at least two elections to demolish that 80 seat majority.
    2. The Tories may struggle to maintain a clear majority next time.
    3. We could be heading for a Labour-led hung parliament.
    4. We could be heading for a small Labour majority.
    5. We could be heading for a 1997-style Labour landslide...

    ... and we're now edging into:

    6. The Tories might not even be the official opposition!

    There's a piece in the draft section of the PB servers which says

    'Was the 2019 election for the Tories what. 1906* was for the Liberals?'

    I may finish it soon.

    *or 1910, which is the reason I haven't finished it.

    I may need to speak to @ydoethur to hear his thoughts.
    As much as I would like this to be true I’m not sure it is. A major factor in the decline of the Liberals was the emergence of a party which could better represent one of its core constituencies, unionised labour. Unless a viable party emerges that can win the right of centre, patriotic type of vote then the Tories will always have enough support to remain the official opposition.

    Incidentally I’ve always thought it was a tragedy that Labour eclipsed the Liberals as the second party because in reality they were much worse at competing with the Conservatives as a party of government. The old Liberal Party could put together a far wider coalition of voters than Labour has ever been able to do with the exception of Blair. We might have been better governed throughout the 20th century if the Tories weren’t quite so electorally dominant.
    The Liberals won majorities in 1859 (for a given value of 'Liberal' since the party didn't actually exist until after the election) 1865, and 1868.

    Then in 1880 and 1906.

    All those elections bar the last have in common that they were fought on a very restricted franchise.

    They weren't actually very good at appealing to mass segments of the population. After the 1885 reforms, which widened the franchise to effectively the majority of adult males, they won one overall majority. That was forty years before Labour emerged.

    In particular, they were opposed to votes for women because they knew that women were unlikely to vote Liberal in large numbers (with very rare exceptions - 1906 would have been one).
    If we went back to a franchise restricted to the top 10-20% by wealth and property that would do more for Liberal prospects than PR would, the typical LD voter now an upper middle class Remainer. Won't happen of course
    I sometimes like to consider various restricted franchises as a thought-experiment. For example, suppose you restricted the franchise only to people who were parents, on the basis that only parents have a long-term stake in the country? What might be the result?

    Would it encourage people to have children a bit earlier, to gain a vote? Aside from the after difference, how differently do childless people vote?
    That's an interesting thought experiment.

    I think it would be quite similar to the way things work now with the grey vote. Only instead of the Tories pandering to pensioners at the expense of the rest of us, you'd have the main parties tripping over each other to offer parent-friendly policies.

    People like me, childless by choice, would probably just leave the country, on the basis of a) being disenfranchised and b) seeing an increasing amount of our taxes being spent on things we don't use in ways we can't change. The tax take and population may actually shrink as a result.

    Then you have people who are childless through infertility. People literally born without a vote. That's before getting into the complexities of gay people, transgender people, etc.

    I'm not sure I would want to live in a parent-ocracy. At least with a gerontocracy, I can guarantee I'm going to get old (or won't be around to care).

    If you want to raise birth rates, I'd do it with tax breaks. An additional 10% off your taxes for every additional child. Pop ten out and never pay tax again! Breed for Britain, etc...



    How about we turn it around: the moment you have a child, you lose your vote?
    Do you own shares in Durex?

    But it's an interesting question. My guess is people who want to have babies will still have babies. It's a pretty built-in biological instinct for most. Most would probably choose doing their, uh, duty in the bedroom, over doing their civic duty at the ballot box.

    You might see the reverse of the situation I describe above, with less money going to schools. Maybe the birth rate would decline if the cost of having children rose, e.g. the reimposition of VAT on children's clothes. As I think the cost of kids (via things like the cost of housing and daycare) is what reduces the birth rate now.

    Again, civic minded people who cared about voting would move abroad, so you'd probably see fewer people and less tax take as a result.

    Personally, I like the idea of disenfranchising everyone who doesn't do at least a month's worth of volunteer work in every five year electoral cycle.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
    Yeah but it is bizarre to try and stop a problem that doesn't yet exist from happening by a pre-emptive policy
    . I just think 'banning tents' is an odd message to send out when there is a massive homelessness problem they created and cannot solve. Do they really think that they can blame the homeless people themselves?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    ""Are you a Jew?"

    London is getting worse by the day for Jewish people and it has to stop.

    Let's make this vile woman famous."


    https://x.com/addicted2newz/status/1723799689215070266?s=20

    We have to come down extremely hard on this. Now
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    THE TRUSS

    must be a shoe-in for Home Secretary in tomorrow’s reshuffle, if not the top job.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
    As with so many other things this country’s politicians go far too heavy on rhetoric and too light on actual policy. The Tories in particular seem to want to speak loudly and carry a very small stick. Rough sleeping, as shown during Covid, is a policy choice. Government can end it overnight.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,400
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
    There was a tent city in Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986.
    Hmm. Was there? I was actually living very near to Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986. I don't remember anything like a tent city as we see now in west coast USA. Some homeless? Yes, for sure, also on the Embankment and around the Strand
    There was a permanent homeless encampment, yes.
    Was it large? Perhaps not.
    Was it there? Definitely.
    Steinbeck had something to report about West Coast homelessness 90 years ago. It isn't new.
    But. The question remains. If you don't want folk living in tents, then where will they live?
    Simply taking away their tent isn't an answer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    Cyclefree said:

    This weekend London has 3 marches: 1 by some nasty football thugs (fortunately small) and 2 larger pro-Palestine ones, and some pretty unpleasant anti-Semitic / racist placards plus some other equally nasty verbal attacks on Jews elsewhere in London.

    In Paris meanwhile 100,000 march against anti-Semitism.

    If the French can do it, so should we.

    Whatever your views on Gaza, Israel, the West Bank etc, we should all be against anti-semitism, especially at a time when there has been a steep rise, in such attacks, our Jewish citizens are feeling scared and vulnerable in their home country and a month after a sadistic attack on very many Israelis and others.

    There’s a fascinating article on the BBC about how National Rally are moving into the mainstream, by taking part, just as the French left are moving out of the mainstream, by ceasing to object to anti-semitism.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    "Why does the UK believe that “from the river to the sea” is hateful? Because
    @SuellaBraverman
    has a Jewish husband, er, a Zionist husband… Honestly this wouldn’t have been out of place in Germany in a certain period"

    https://x.com/JakeWSimons/status/1723805885590319463?s=20
  • Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.

    Absolutely none here. But I'm in rural Hampshire.

    Where do you live?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    Quite an interesting and even handed review of Nads' book. Interestingly, Dr No isn't Dougie Smith, as they are referred to separately. https://conservativehome.com/2023/11/10/book-review-dorries-blames-the-downfall-of-johnson-on-a-shadowy-group-of-fixers-led-by-dr-no/

    And in other Nad news, after being embarrassed by Nick Robinson on Today, when she denied the existence of Bojo's gold wallpaper and he retorted that he'd been shown it, it turns out what he actually saw was a red wall. A painted red wall.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12738715/Radio-4-Nick-Robinsons-flippant-apology-row-Boriss-non-existent-gold-wallpaper-Tories-tell-record-straight-live-air.html?ico=related-replace

    So it seems she's not the only one with a chequered relationship with the truth.
    Much Ado About Nothing. It looks like it is Jeremy Hunt's jokes about gold wallpaper that caused the confusion. I've bought Nad's book but not read it yet.
    I think Dorries is right to be pissed off and seeking a grovelling apology tbh. He made her look like a total fool, and did it as his sign off so she had no chance to respond. And with a complete lie - a red painted wall, whilst I am sure the paint was ludicrously expensive, ain't a gold wallpapered wall. They are both walls. There the similarity ends.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,152
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    The US is a little different though: those homeless in San Francisco and Los Angeles, they aren't from there. (Or not disproportionately.)

    Good treatment of the homeless in California draws them in from Kansas and Missouri.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    She’s likely to have plenty of time on the backbenches.
    But a decent chance of being leader of the opposition at least.
  • Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
    There was a tent city in Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986.
    Hmm. Was there? I was actually living very near to Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986. I don't remember anything like a tent city as we see now in west coast USA. Some homeless? Yes, for sure, also on the Embankment and around the Strand
    "via things like tents, and generous welfare"??

    How does UK's DWP policies encourage people to live in a tent?

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,073

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Fair point, but we have a very large number of over-55s/pensioners and they are perfectly willing to ignore immutable truths in order to get paid. You know what they say about how markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? You're entirely right, but there are over 12.5 million pensioners in the UK, they vote like mad, and they want their money. Truss didn't fail quickly because of cultural Marxism or woke or any Kulturkampf gubbins, she was kicked out because she came within inches of detonating the pension funds.
  • Leon said:

    ""Are you a Jew?"

    London is getting worse by the day for Jewish people and it has to stop.

    Let's make this vile woman famous."


    https://x.com/addicted2newz/status/1723799689215070266?s=20

    We have to come down extremely hard on this. Now

    Hopefully, there's enough video evidence there to convict her - several people were filming it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Leon said:

    "Why does the UK believe that “from the river to the sea” is hateful? Because
    @SuellaBraverman
    has a Jewish husband, er, a Zionist husband… Honestly this wouldn’t have been out of place in Germany in a certain period"

    https://x.com/JakeWSimons/status/1723805885590319463?s=20

    I can certainly think of a simpler explanation for why it is seen as hateful (if not by enough).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.

    Certainly so in my patch.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited November 2023

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    It's an article of faith for neolibs - it doesn't need evidence (which is just as well).
    Now now. The much-vaunted 'Scandi' economies got rich with low tax and low regulation, and since they switched, they've been on a slow, natural-resource insulated descent. If you have a shred of data to show me dynamic growth in Denmark's economy correlating directly with the growth of its regulatory and tax burden, by all means share it. You won't, because it won't exist. It's fantasy economics.
    Here you go. It's pretty clear, Denmark versus the UK over 50 years. Denmark in darker blue, is the top line in each chart.

    Tax revenues % GDP
    image

    GDP per Capita
    image

    Source World Bank https://databank.worldbank.org
  • ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Bari Weiss's essay, "End DEI", is insightful. And, like everything else I've read by her, it has a clarity that more of us should try to emulate. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/end-dei-bari-weiss-jews

    Sample: "What I saw [20 years ago as an undergraduate] was a worldview that replaced basic ideas of good and evil with a new rubric: the powerless (good) and the powerful (bad). It replaced lots of things. Colorblindness with race-obsession. Ideas with identity. Debate with denunciation. Persuasion with public shaming. The rule of law with the fury of the mob."

    Judging people by the color of their skin, rather than the content of their character.

    Having such heterodox ideas forced her to leave the NYT. In spite of her ticking several "diversity" boxes.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bari_Weiss

    The NYT is a seriously flawed publication, but not quite in the way you say.

    NYT covering Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” remark vs NYT covering Donald Trump’s “vermin” remark.
    https://twitter.com/TUSK81/status/1723544091341062582
    He really said that?!
    What did he say? The tweet doesn't have any quote from him? (That I can see - as a non-twitter/x premium-double-plus-good subscriber anyway).
    Donald Trump said (or wrote):-

    "In honor of our great veterans on Veteran's Day, we
    pledge to you that we will root out the Communists,
    Marxists, Fascists, and Radical Left Thugs that live like
    vermin within the confines of our Country, lie, steal,
    and cheat on Elections, and will do anything possible,
    whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the
    American Dream. The threat from outside forces is far
    less sinister, dangerous, and grave, than the threat
    from within. Despite the hatred and anger of the
    Radical Left Lunatics who want to destroy our Country,
    we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"




    (Retyped by me so E&OE.)
    It has just occurred to me that depending how you view the comma after "Country" in the fourth line, Trump might be hiding the truth in plain sight. Does the rest of the sentence from "lie, steal," onwards belong to the list of things Communists and Fascists do, or the list of things "we will" do?
    As Kristol posted when this hit X:



    Bill Kristol @BillKristol
    ·
    19h
    Reads better in the original German.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    And more

    "Miami, FL - "Hitler should have f*cking finished the job, he knew what the f*ck he was doing."

    This woman is a MOTHER.
    Walking WITH her children in tow.

    Recognize her? DM us."

    A tidal wave of this shit

    https://x.com/StopAntisemites/status/1723767763112525851?s=20

  • Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.

    Absolutely none here. But I'm in rural Hampshire.

    Where do you live?
    Outer London.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Fair point, but we have a very large number of over-55s/pensioners and they are perfectly willing to ignore immutable truths in order to get paid. You know what they say about how markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? You're entirely right, but there are over 12.5 million pensioners in the UK, they vote like mad, and they want their money. Truss didn't fail quickly because of cultural Marxism or woke or any Kulturkampf gubbins, she was kicked out because she came within inches of detonating the pension funds.
    I don't really want to go over why Truss was forced to resign, but as a general point, I dislike the resentment of one generation toward another for having (in this case) property and benefits. It's divide and rule. The real culprit is the Government.
  • There's no pretence now from Trump.

    It will be Biden vs Trump and it will be democracy vs fascism.

    This is the election of our lifetimes folks.

    Belt up.

  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    edited November 2023
    BenPointer - How generous the US welfare system is depends partly on the state and city. But every state has a Medicaid program providing medical care, as do DC and Puerto Rico. (Benefits do vary from state to state.)
    "Medicaid is the largest source of funding for medical and health-related services for people with low income in the United States, providing free health insurance to 85 million low-income and disabled people as of 2022;[3] in 2019, the program paid for half of all U.S. births.[4] As of 2017, the total annual cost of Medicaid was just over $600 billion, of which the federal government contributed $375 billion and states an additional $230 billion.[4] States are not required to participate in the program, although all have since 1982. In general, Medicaid recipients must be U.S. citizens or qualified non-citizens, and may include low-income adults, their children, and people with certain disabilities."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid

    So this program for the poor serves more people than the UK's NHS. (I'd be interested to know how the per capita Medicaid spending compares with that of the NHS.)

    The US also subsidizes food for the poor through a program that once called food stamps, but is now the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program:
    "SNAP benefits supplied roughly 40 million Americans in 2018, at an expenditure of $57.1 billion.[2][3] Approximately 9.2% of American households obtained SNAP benefits at some point during 2017, with approximately 16.7% of all children living in households with SNAP benefits.[2] Beneficiaries and costs increased sharply with the Great Recession, peaked in 2013 and declined through 2017 as the economy recovered.[2] It is the largest nutrition program of the 15 administered by FNS and is a key component of the social safety net for low-income Americans."

    SNAP is popular now, and has always been. (Though medical experts have begun to worry that it contributes to our obesity problem.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supplemental_Nutrition_Assistance_Program
  • There's no pretence now from Trump.

    It will be Biden vs Trump and it will be democracy vs fascism.

    This is the election of our lifetimes folks.

    Belt up.

    BRACE
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,130
    edited November 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    The US is a little different though: those homeless in San Francisco and Los Angeles, they aren't from there. (Or not disproportionately.)

    Good treatment of the homeless in California draws them in from Kansas and Missouri.

    Is that true? I had heard otherwise, and for instance this SF Standard article https://sfstandard.com/2023/05/22/san-francisco-homeless-people-from-the-city/ quotes research where a survey found "Seventy-one percent of those surveyed reported living in San Francisco, 24% in other California counties and 4% outside California [before becoming homeless].". Being homeless is bad enough without moving across the country away from any friends, family or acquaintances when it happens. You can argue that a self reported survey is not the most ideal rigorous data, but it does suggest that the "everybody moves to SF when they lose their home" idea isn't right.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Fireworks are like newspaper cartoonists. Frequently disappointing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    Leon said:

    "Why does the UK believe that “from the river to the sea” is hateful? Because
    @SuellaBraverman
    has a Jewish husband, er, a Zionist husband… Honestly this wouldn’t have been out of place in Germany in a certain period"

    https://x.com/JakeWSimons/status/1723805885590319463?s=20

    Why do people think there’s anything sinister about chanting “Jihad, Jihad”, when the police assure us it’s a purely peaceful expression?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    Where's your evidence for the notion that the Government can just take bigger and bigger chunks out of the productive economy and it will have no effect on the growth of the economy? Why do governments place taxes on things they want people to buy less of if your fanciful notion of the all-you-can-tax economy is true? At least my argument has some semblance of logic underpinning it.
    My evidence would be that lots of countries tax more than us and have good levels of economic growth (as well as better public services and happier citizens).
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,246
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
    There was a tent city in Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986.
    Hmm. Was there? I was actually living very near to Lincoln's Inn Fields in 1986. I don't remember anything like a tent city as we see now in west coast USA. Some homeless? Yes, for sure, also on the Embankment and around the Strand
    I think @dixiedean is right about LIF. I used it as an evening car park (free after 18:30, plenty of spaces) in the good old days. There was a mobile soup kitchen acting as a magnet for the homeless and they'd kip in the square until dawn, being relatively harmless and invisible. But the modern cheapo one-person tent didn't exist in those days: just a sleeping bag lined with the Evening Standard and a cardboard box if you were lucky.
  • Quite an interesting and even handed review of Nads' book. Interestingly, Dr No isn't Dougie Smith, as they are referred to separately. https://conservativehome.com/2023/11/10/book-review-dorries-blames-the-downfall-of-johnson-on-a-shadowy-group-of-fixers-led-by-dr-no/

    And in other Nad news, after being embarrassed by Nick Robinson on Today, when she denied the existence of Bojo's gold wallpaper and he retorted that he'd been shown it, it turns out what he actually saw was a red wall. A painted red wall.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12738715/Radio-4-Nick-Robinsons-flippant-apology-row-Boriss-non-existent-gold-wallpaper-Tories-tell-record-straight-live-air.html?ico=related-replace

    So it seems she's not the only one with a chequered relationship with the truth.
    Well, that’s another red wall the Conservatives aren’t going to retain after the next election.
    LOL. Bravo.
  • Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    "Why does the UK believe that “from the river to the sea” is hateful? Because
    @SuellaBraverman
    has a Jewish husband, er, a Zionist husband… Honestly this wouldn’t have been out of place in Germany in a certain period"

    https://x.com/JakeWSimons/status/1723805885590319463?s=20

    Why do people think there’s anything sinister about chanting “Jihad, Jihad”, when the police assure us it’s a purely peaceful expression?
    That was not the Met's finest hour.
  • Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.

    Absolutely none here. But I'm in rural Hampshire.

    Where do you live?
    Outer London.
    Thanks. That makes sense. It's probably very closely related to having Hindu neighbours.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    "Why does the UK believe that “from the river to the sea” is hateful? Because
    @SuellaBraverman
    has a Jewish husband, er, a Zionist husband… Honestly this wouldn’t have been out of place in Germany in a certain period"

    https://x.com/JakeWSimons/status/1723805885590319463?s=20

    Why do people think there’s anything sinister about chanting “Jihad, Jihad”, when the police assure us it’s a purely peaceful expression?
    That was not the Met's finest hour.
    Those appear to fill up a large proportion of the clock.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    the one thing I would say about Suella is that the tent policy is completely insane. It reinforces the impression that she doesn't have a clue about the real world and just makes policy up based on her prejudices.

    It's not ENTIRELY insane. Or even insane. There is ample evidence from urban America that if you enable homelessness, and make it more tolerable - via things like tents, and generous welfare - then homelessness increases, and people will migrate to the most tent-giving and generous place, creating a cottage industry of homelessness, where homeless charities need evermore homeless to keep going, and justify their existence, and on you go, and eventually you get San Francisco

    That is what Braverman is aiming at. However, I agree her way of phrasing it has been tone-deaf and tin-eared, and she doesn't apparently understand that this American context is not understood by Brits

    She needs to learn quick

    Ok so she is dreaming up policies based on youtube videos of tent cities in California and Oregon. Irrellevant to the English context where there is a housing shortage (doesn't exist on the whole in the USA) and a severe lack of temporary accommodation. That is largely why people end up in tents, not as a lifestyle choice.
    Yes, I concur. "Lifestyle choice" might just about be arguable in the USA (many would disagree) it is surely not arguable in the UK, yet

    She is as guilty of importing US culture wars as any Woke Warrior in Labour. Tsk

    However we really do want to stop any tent cities from springing up in the UK. Once they are established, with an ecosystem of charities looking after them, they are extremely hard to eradicate without appearing utterly brutal and heartless. So there is an underlying logic to her words, but it is deeply underlying

    France has similar issues with refugees on the Normandy Coast, waiting to cross to the UK. She might have been better pointing to that
    The way to prevent tent cities is to make entry-level housing affordable and available. That almost certainly requires investment by the state, it certainly requires changes to make it easier to build houses and flats.

    Meanwhile, my local free newspaper has as its headline: "Too Many Houses!" (planned for a local development site).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Far more fireworks tonight for Diwali than last week for Guy Fawkes.

    Absolutely none here. But I'm in rural Hampshire.

    Where do you live?
    Outer London.
    It’s people toasting the success of the Ulez extension.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    Where's your evidence for the notion that the Government can just take bigger and bigger chunks out of the productive economy and it will have no effect on the growth of the economy? Why do governments place taxes on things they want people to buy less of if your fanciful notion of the all-you-can-tax economy is true? At least my argument has some semblance of logic underpinning it.
    My evidence would be that lots of countries tax more than us and have good levels of economic growth (as well as better public services and happier citizens).
    And others tax more, and have worse outcomes. And some tax less, and have better outcomes.

    Do, I think things would work better if I gave more of what I earn to the current government, Mark Drakeford, and Humza Youssaf?

    No.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Theresa May cropped out Truss ;-)

    "Each year on Remembrance Sunday, we assemble at the Cenotaph to honour the sacrifice of the fallen and pay tribute to the servicemen & women we place in harm’s way.

    Today - as every day - we will remember them. #LestWeForget"


    image

    Traumatic amnesia. I find it difficult to remember her. I was watching something about the Queen's death on YouTube and was slightly taken aback when Truss spoke outside No 10. I know she was PM, and I agree with @Luckyguy1983 that she had a consistent approach that addressed the issue (whilst disagreeing it would work in 2022/3), but other than the bald facts she begins to slip away. I remember she had an awkward manner and unfortunate voice, but other than that... um?
    Immutable truths have not ceased to be so because it's 2022/3. Overtax and overregulate and economic activity will diminish. This was observed by Adam Smith, and was true long before him, and is true to this day.
    Could you just tell me if Denmark, for example, is overtaxed and would that explain their descent into chaos often being assessed as the happiest place on earth to live?
    Without much specific current knowledge, yes, but it wouldn't result in a descent into chaos, it would result in a more stagnant economical performance vs. a parallel Denmark with lower taxation.
    You’ve zero evidence of that.
    Where's your evidence for the notion that the Government can just take bigger and bigger chunks out of the productive economy and it will have no effect on the growth of the economy? Why do governments place taxes on things they want people to buy less of if your fanciful notion of the all-you-can-tax economy is true? At least my argument has some semblance of logic underpinning it.
    My evidence would be that lots of countries tax more than us and have good levels of economic growth (as well as better public services and happier citizens).
    My evidence is Denmark (or just about every other norther European country tbf).
  • Only just over four years ago that Labour's conference was awash with Palestine flags.

    https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/palestine-flags-flown-as-labour-conference-backs-ethical-foreign-policy-motion/

  • This is pretty pathetic. 'Gers hold up some poppies, so Celtic boo the 2-minute silence:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/11/12/celtic-fans-boo-minute-silence-remembrance-sunday/
This discussion has been closed.