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Just how large Khan’s lead would be without ULEZ? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited November 2023 in General
Just how large Khan’s lead would be without ULEZ? – politicalbetting.com

Sadiq Khan holds a 25pt lead over Tory rival Susan Hall for mayorSadiq Khan (Labour): 50% Susan Hall (Conservative): 25% Zoe Garbett (Green): 11% Rob Blackie (Lib Dem): 7% Howard Cox (Reform UK): 4% Some other candidate: 3%https://t.co/BW1lnjmKN6 pic.twitter.com/eMeGTMJgyV

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First like Khan.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222
    Second like Spurs.
  • Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.
  • tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
  • Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.

    Some put in Corbyn as a candidate which can upend things.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954
    edited November 2023
    Bearing in mind that it's now FPTP, and the Greens and Lib Dems on a total on 18% (versus 4% for Reform):

    Just how small would Khan's lead be without ULEZ?

    Doesn't matter if he loses outer London if he piles up the anti-death-by-lung-disease vote.
  • Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.

    Some put in Corbyn as a candidate which can upend things.
    Also, ULEZ was a massive factor just either side of the launch. That anger hasn't entirely gone away (there are enough people still keen to vandalise cameras) but it has faded significantly.

    The poll still has Khan running a bit behind national Labour in London, which smells about right.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,150

    Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.

    Don’t they just hang about on Primrose Hill and see who walks by?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,128
    edited November 2023
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
    I watched the match last night. Vastly entertaining, but not for football reasons. 5 disallowed goals, 2 redcards and 21 minutes of extra time. There were occasional bits of good football between the petulance and aggression, as well as long periods standing round waiting for VAR decisions.

    VAR should be for clear and obvious errors, and it isn't a clear and obvious error if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide.

    The idea has some merit, but isn't working well in practice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    The current Chinese generative AI law draft confirms the strictest possible interpretation of the regulations: "I think it’s reasonable to assume that the extra lengths Chinese developers have to go to to ensure their outputs are politically acceptable will increase compliance costs and reduce the helpfulness and honesty of their models relative to Western ones."
    https://twitter.com/sebkrier/status/1721669744795820230

    Are Chinese AIs intended to be 'helpful' ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited November 2023
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
    VAR is good, the simple fact is apart from Michael Oliver and Anthony Taylor, our refs aren't good enough.

    The most disturbing thing about the Spurs v Liverpool fuck up was the fact there was a qualified referee and a qualified linesman in the VAR hub but the only person who realised something was wrong was the TV operator.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,150
    Poor Charles, having to read out the government's anti-environmental crap at his first King's Speech
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    IanB2 said:

    Poor Charles, having to read out the government's anti-environmental crap at his first King's Speech

    ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    Anne Frank kindergarten in Germany discusses changing name, sparking uproar

    https://www.politico.eu/article/anne-frank-kindergarten-germany-change-name-uproar/
    ...According to television outlet n-tv, the city council said that some parents and employees requested to the change the name. The daycare center manager Linda Schichor said that children struggle to understand the name, while parents with a migration background often don’t relate to Anne Frank, German media Volksstimme first reported over the weekend. “We wanted something without a political background,” Schichor said...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214

    Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.

    Some put in Corbyn as a candidate which can upend things.
    Also, ULEZ was a massive factor just either side of the launch. That anger hasn't entirely gone away (there are enough people still keen to vandalise cameras) but it has faded significantly.

    The poll still has Khan running a bit behind national Labour in London, which smells about right.
    Yes, that seems right given the burdens of incumbency. He’s winning because he’s Labour, not through “sheer Khan”.
  • tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.

    Ange has been entirely consistent. Arteta is a manchild.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    TimS said:

    Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.

    Some put in Corbyn as a candidate which can upend things.
    Also, ULEZ was a massive factor just either side of the launch. That anger hasn't entirely gone away (there are enough people still keen to vandalise cameras) but it has faded significantly.

    The poll still has Khan running a bit behind national Labour in London, which smells about right.
    Yes, that seems right given the burdens of incumbency. He’s winning because he’s Labour, not through “sheer Khan”.
    You don't think he's a Khanny operator ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
    I watched the match last night. Vastly entertaining, but not for football reasons. 5 disallowed goals, 2 redcards and 21 minutes of extra time. There were occasional bits of good football between the petulance and aggression, as well as long periods standing round waiting for VAR decisions.

    VAR should be for clear and obvious errors, and it isn't a clear and obvious error if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide.

    The idea has some merit, but isn't working well in practice.
    21 minutes of extra time! That’s ridiculous. I’m all for using technology to get decisions right, but there seems something radically wrong there.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,683
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
    I watched the match last night. Vastly entertaining, but not for football reasons. 5 disallowed goals, 2 redcards and 21 minutes of extra time. There were occasional bits of good football between the petulance and aggression, as well as long periods standing round waiting for VAR decisions.

    VAR should be for clear and obvious errors, and it isn't a clear and obvious error if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide.

    The idea has some merit, but isn't working well in practice.
    Var. we brought in to stop the Lampard disallowed goal being wrongly disallowed (or technically to make it be awarded). That was so egregious that something had to be done. But not we have mission creep and people analysing pixels for offsides. Better would be to show the ref a couple of real time replays on the big screen and let them decide.
  • tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.

    Ange has been entirely consistent. Arteta is a manchild.

    Postecoglou: "You have to accept the referee's decision, that is how I grew up."

    Apart from when you get booked by the referee for not accepting his decision.


    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1721664441383612803
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,683
    edited November 2023
    IanB2 said:

    Poor Charles, having to read out the government's anti-environmental crap at his first King's Speech

    What anti environment crap? Being pragmatic will allow us the head to net zero in a reasonable way. There are no awards for us if we just decided to turn off non green sources of power and hope.

    And besides, it’s easy being green if you are rich beyond imagination, as Charles is. Try it on a council estate on minimum wage.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited November 2023
    On topic - I think we need more polling. Khan is not popular. However, ULEZ has happened and the world has not fallen in. Instead, lots of people have found out they are not affected.

    What’s more, Hall seems to be a cross between Braverman and Truss, pro-Trump and pro-Brexit. She’s not exactly the ideal candidate for London.

    As I say, though, Khan is unpopular and has been as ineffective as his predecessor. He’s vulnerable and would probably lose to a more mainstream Tory or to a right-of-centre independent like Rory Stewart. If I were Hall, I’d forget ULEZ and go hard on crime.

    Corbyn won’t stand. If he did it would mean immediate expulsion from the Labour party and he wants to keep his membership for as long as possible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    Nigelb said:

    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?

    VAR currently shading it.
  • tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.

    Ange has been entirely consistent. Arteta is a manchild.

    Postecoglou: "You have to accept the referee's decision, that is how I grew up."

    Apart from when you get booked by the referee for not accepting his decision.


    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1721664441383612803

    He was booked for leaving the technical area.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?

    VAR currently shading it.
    Maybe VAR needs more AI...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,125
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.

    Some put in Corbyn as a candidate which can upend things.
    Also, ULEZ was a massive factor just either side of the launch. That anger hasn't entirely gone away (there are enough people still keen to vandalise cameras) but it has faded significantly.

    The poll still has Khan running a bit behind national Labour in London, which smells about right.
    Yes, that seems right given the burdens of incumbency. He’s winning because he’s Labour, not through “sheer Khan”.
    You don't think he's a Khanny operator ?
    I’m often surprised by the number of people in London with a negative view of Khan. To me he seems quite bland and hasn’t done very much. The dislike seems to spread across the political spectrum - have heard it from IAlwaysVoteLabour types, who say they will vote for him as the official candidate, but…
  • tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.

    Ange has been entirely consistent. Arteta is a manchild.

    Postecoglou: "You have to accept the referee's decision, that is how I grew up."

    Apart from when you get booked by the referee for not accepting his decision.


    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1721664441383612803

    He was booked for leaving the technical area.

    To complain about the officiating.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?

    VAR currently shading it.
    I think we need a review.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,128
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?

    VAR currently shading it.
    Maybe VAR needs more AI...
    The introduction of any form of intelligence would be progress!

    It did seem to work well in the Euros, and unobtrusively.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.

    Some put in Corbyn as a candidate which can upend things.
    Also, ULEZ was a massive factor just either side of the launch. That anger hasn't entirely gone away (there are enough people still keen to vandalise cameras) but it has faded significantly.

    The poll still has Khan running a bit behind national Labour in London, which smells about right.
    Yes, that seems right given the burdens of incumbency. He’s winning because he’s Labour, not through “sheer Khan”.
    You don't think he's a Khanny operator ?
    I’m often surprised by the number of people in London with a negative view of Khan. To me he seems quite bland and hasn’t done very much. The dislike seems to spread across the political spectrum - have heard it from IAlwaysVoteLabour types, who say they will vote for him as the official candidate, but…
    I’ve not come across much dislike. Indifference generally. He’s not a pop personality like Johnson or Livingstone were. I do think it would have been worth him considering stepping down after a couple of terms just to refresh things a bit.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,422
    edited November 2023
    Nigelb said:

    The current Chinese generative AI law draft confirms the strictest possible interpretation of the regulations: "I think it’s reasonable to assume that the extra lengths Chinese developers have to go to to ensure their outputs are politically acceptable will increase compliance costs and reduce the helpfulness and honesty of their models relative to Western ones."
    https://twitter.com/sebkrier/status/1721669744795820230

    Are Chinese AIs intended to be 'helpful' ?

    Aiui from Leon, Western AIs are also restricted to guard against generating pornographic text or images, so the matter is not entirely one-sided. If I were in China, I'd be more worried about the police asking AI for a list of pro-democracy agitators. If engineers are using AI to design better chips or drugs or batteries, the question of guardrails need not apply.
  • tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.

    Ange has been entirely consistent. Arteta is a manchild.

    Postecoglou: "You have to accept the referee's decision, that is how I grew up."

    Apart from when you get booked by the referee for not accepting his decision.


    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1721664441383612803

    He was booked for leaving the technical area.

    To complain about the officiating.
    Ha, ha! He made very clear he accepted all the decisions after the match. No demands for replays, no open letters to the FA, no spittle-flecked rants. Just you win some, you lose some.

    His complaint, which I think is a valid one, is how long it takes to make a decision. If you’re looking for minutes on end, it’s not a clear error. It spoils the flow of the game and also means the players’ muscles potentially tighten up, making them more vulnerable to injury.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?

    VAR currently shading it.
    You need to look at it from a lot more angles, before coming to that conclusion.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?

    VAR currently shading it.
    Maybe VAR needs more AI...
    The introduction of any form of intelligence would be progress!

    It did seem to work well in the Euros, and unobtrusively.
    But in the Euros, it wasn't run by the FA.

    In case you didn't know, the FA would make the DFE look competent.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    Nigelb said:

    The current Chinese generative AI law draft confirms the strictest possible interpretation of the regulations: "I think it’s reasonable to assume that the extra lengths Chinese developers have to go to to ensure their outputs are politically acceptable will increase compliance costs and reduce the helpfulness and honesty of their models relative to Western ones."
    https://twitter.com/sebkrier/status/1721669744795820230

    Are Chinese AIs intended to be 'helpful' ?

    They’re intended to be ‘helpful’ in perusing the aims of the Chinese Communist Party, irrespective of how that’s perceived elsewhere.

    Let’s not forget that there are plenty of guard rails on the Western AIs as well.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,125
    A
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    Polls for London Mayor are all over the place. A month or 2 back it was almost neck and neck. Are there problems getting a representative sample in the metropolis? After all, it is another country to the rest of us.

    Some put in Corbyn as a candidate which can upend things.
    Also, ULEZ was a massive factor just either side of the launch. That anger hasn't entirely gone away (there are enough people still keen to vandalise cameras) but it has faded significantly.

    The poll still has Khan running a bit behind national Labour in London, which smells about right.
    Yes, that seems right given the burdens of incumbency. He’s winning because he’s Labour, not through “sheer Khan”.
    You don't think he's a Khanny operator ?
    I’m often surprised by the number of people in London with a negative view of Khan. To me he seems quite bland and hasn’t done very much. The dislike seems to spread across the political spectrum - have heard it from IAlwaysVoteLabour types, who say they will vote for him as the official candidate, but…
    I’ve not come across much dislike. Indifference generally. He’s not a pop personality like Johnson or Livingstone were. I do think it would have been worth him considering stepping down after a couple of terms just to refresh things a bit.
    That’s what I thought. But he does seem to have rubbed some people the wrong way. Which surprised me. Doing slightly worse in polling than Labour as such sounds about right.
  • Drivers are patiently waiting to see whether King Charles will introduce new laws to protect road users and improve the state of motoring in the UK.
    https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/driving-law-changes-kings-speech-impact

    Does GB News fully understand our constitutional settlement? "Drivers are patiently waiting" is bad enough.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,973
    edited November 2023

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    Loving VAR full stop. Like the best films it holds back the climax till it's squeezed all the drama out of the moment. It's brilliant. It's exciting viewers who aren't even interested in the particular teams that are playing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Nigelb said:

    Anne Frank kindergarten in Germany discusses changing name, sparking uproar

    https://www.politico.eu/article/anne-frank-kindergarten-germany-change-name-uproar/
    ...According to television outlet n-tv, the city council said that some parents and employees requested to the change the name. The daycare center manager Linda Schichor said that children struggle to understand the name, while parents with a migration background often don’t relate to Anne Frank, German media Volksstimme first reported over the weekend. “We wanted something without a political background,” Schichor said...

    Maybe rename it after Osama bin Laden.
  • On topic - I think we need more polling. Khan is not popular. However, ULEZ has happened and the world has not fallen in. Instead, lots of people have found out they are not affected.

    What’s more, Hall seems to be a cross between Braverman and Truss, pro-Trump and pro-Brexit. She’s not exactly the ideal candidate for London.

    As I say, though, Khan is unpopular and has been as ineffective as his predecessor. He’s vulnerable and would probably lose to a more mainstream Tory or to a right-of-centre independent like Rory Stewart. If I were Hall, I’d forget ULEZ and go hard on crime.

    Corbyn won’t stand. If he did it would mean immediate expulsion from the Labour party and he wants to keep his membership for as long as possible.

    I note a lot of the Tories have indeed gone hard on crime. The risk with that approach, though, is if they get caught it often leads to resignation or at least loss of the whip.
  • Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Anne Frank kindergarten in Germany discusses changing name, sparking uproar

    https://www.politico.eu/article/anne-frank-kindergarten-germany-change-name-uproar/
    ...According to television outlet n-tv, the city council said that some parents and employees requested to the change the name. The daycare center manager Linda Schichor said that children struggle to understand the name, while parents with a migration background often don’t relate to Anne Frank, German media Volksstimme first reported over the weekend. “We wanted something without a political background,” Schichor said...

    Maybe rename it after Osama bin Laden.
    Anne Frank's father had a Blue Peter badge.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/archive/blue-peter--anne-frank/zrj247h
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    This is an excellent visualisation of energy usage in the US, showing the efficiency of power generation, and also usage.
    The opportunity for improving efficiency of transport in particular is huge.

    https://twitter.com/f10dg/status/1721485861156479425
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    edited November 2023
    On the positive side for Hall the 9.5% swing this poll suggests to Labour since 2019 would be significantly less than the national swing to Labour since 2019 on the latest polls.

    On the negative side, if she did get just 25% that would be the lowest score for a Conservative London Mayoral candidate yet, even lower
    than the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 in the first round
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?

    VAR currently shading it.
    Either's fine, just don't let Leon get back onto his pet subject.
  • Nigelb said:

    Anne Frank kindergarten in Germany discusses changing name, sparking uproar

    https://www.politico.eu/article/anne-frank-kindergarten-germany-change-name-uproar/
    ...According to television outlet n-tv, the city council said that some parents and employees requested to the change the name. The daycare center manager Linda Schichor said that children struggle to understand the name, while parents with a migration background often don’t relate to Anne Frank, German media Volksstimme first reported over the weekend. “We wanted something without a political background,” Schichor said...

    Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but a 65 year old Jewish man looks to have been killed by a pro-Palestinian protestor near LA

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1721732090176123299

  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    HYUFD said:

    On the positive side for Hall the 9.5% swing this poll suggests to Labour since 2019 would be significantly less than the national swing to Labour since 2019 on the latest polls.

    On the negative side, if she did get just 25% that would be the lowest score for a Conservative London Mayoral candidate yet, even lower
    than the 27% Steve Norris got in 2000 in the first round

    Differential swing with London faring worse than elsewhere would be excellent news electorally for Labour. Unwinding the inefficiency of those piled up London votes.
  • On topic - I think we need more polling. Khan is not popular. However, ULEZ has happened and the world has not fallen in. Instead, lots of people have found out they are not affected.

    What’s more, Hall seems to be a cross between Braverman and Truss, pro-Trump and pro-Brexit. She’s not exactly the ideal candidate for London.

    As I say, though, Khan is unpopular and has been as ineffective as his predecessor. He’s vulnerable and would probably lose to a more mainstream Tory or to a right-of-centre independent like Rory Stewart. If I were Hall, I’d forget ULEZ and go hard on crime.

    Corbyn won’t stand. If he did it would mean immediate expulsion from the Labour party and he wants to keep his membership for as long as possible.

    Agree re a Tory who was half-decent and standing would probably win.

    I have said it for a bit now but I wonder if Luftur Rahman will throw his hat in the ring. If he did, he would have an outside chance, especially on these numbers. He can probably take a good chunk of the Muslim vote away from Khan and, if Hall is no longer seen as a threat, the fear of being accused of letting the Conservative in goes away.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954

    Drivers are patiently waiting to see whether King Charles will introduce new laws to protect road users and improve the state of motoring in the UK.
    https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/driving-law-changes-kings-speech-impact

    Does GB News fully understand our constitutional settlement? "Drivers are patiently waiting" is bad enough.

    It sounds like another cut to fuel duty is coming along, to add to the already £80 billion cost of the policy.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The latest scapegoat seems to be benefit claimants who will now be subject to having their bank account monitored.

    The treasury have come up with imaginary savings. This is deeply disturbing on many levels , where does it end .

    Benefit fraud is tiny but the government attitude is to treat all claimants as guilty
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954
    Another XL Bully attack: https://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/crime/dangerous-dog-police-confirm-armed-officers-shot-dog-dead-after-two-people-hurt-in-calderdale-village-attack-4400029

    Took a police helicopter and armed cops to subdue it, like a rampaging terrorist. There are rumours online about the injuries sustained.

    The consistent problem is their ability to jump fences, so the policy of allowing them access to gardens even after the ban comes into place is not going to work.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954
    edited November 2023
    nico679 said:

    The latest scapegoat seems to be benefit claimants who will now be subject to having their bank account monitored.

    The treasury have come up with imaginary savings. This is deeply disturbing on many levels , where does it end .

    Benefit fraud is tiny but the government attitude is to treat all claimants as guilty

    While investment in HMRC tends to be a revenue raiser. Pure electioneering.
  • Not sure if it has been commented on but Obama's comments about the crisis in the Middle East are going down like a bucket of cold sick amongst the pro-Israel side. Looks like he has hitched his wagon to the 'progressives'.
  • nico679 said:

    The latest scapegoat seems to be benefit claimants who will now be subject to having their bank account monitored.

    The treasury have come up with imaginary savings. This is deeply disturbing on many levels , where does it end .

    Benefit fraud is tiny but the government attitude is to treat all claimants as guilty

    Once the principle of banks scanning customer accounts for potential fraud markers is established, it is unlikely to stop at benefits claimants.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    On topic - I think we need more polling. Khan is not popular. However, ULEZ has happened and the world has not fallen in. Instead, lots of people have found out they are not affected.

    What’s more, Hall seems to be a cross between Braverman and Truss, pro-Trump and pro-Brexit. She’s not exactly the ideal candidate for London.

    As I say, though, Khan is unpopular and has been as ineffective as his predecessor. He’s vulnerable and would probably lose to a more mainstream Tory or to a right-of-centre independent like Rory Stewart. If I were Hall, I’d forget ULEZ and go hard on crime.

    Corbyn won’t stand. If he did it would mean immediate expulsion from the Labour party and he wants to keep his membership for as long as possible.

    How many times do we hear "if this gets implemented the electorate will be up in arms" only for the issue to be forgotten 3 months after implementation? Minimum wage and GDPR spring to mind as other examples.

    It was obvious that ULEZ would be forgotten after a couple of months, as I posted in August. And so it is proving.

    It makes me think Labour should be much bolder: Wealth tax, rolling NI into ICT, phase out private education, replace the HoL with an elected assembly. They's probably get away with all of those since most people would be unaffected or better off.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954

    nico679 said:

    The latest scapegoat seems to be benefit claimants who will now be subject to having their bank account monitored.

    The treasury have come up with imaginary savings. This is deeply disturbing on many levels , where does it end .

    Benefit fraud is tiny but the government attitude is to treat all claimants as guilty

    Once the principle of banks scanning customer accounts for potential fraud markers is established, it is unlikely to stop at benefits claimants.
    They do that anyway? When you sort out a high-value online order you get a flag from the bank if there is fraud risk associated with the account used to pay.
  • Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.

    Ange has been entirely consistent. Arteta is a manchild.

    Postecoglou: "You have to accept the referee's decision, that is how I grew up."

    Apart from when you get booked by the referee for not accepting his decision.


    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1721664441383612803

    He was booked for leaving the technical area.

    He should feel very hard done by if that's the case.

    If he makes a habit of it, he'll make Richard Keys angry.
  • Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
    I watched the match last night. Vastly entertaining, but not for football reasons. 5 disallowed goals, 2 redcards and 21 minutes of extra time. There were occasional bits of good football between the petulance and aggression, as well as long periods standing round waiting for VAR decisions.

    VAR should be for clear and obvious errors, and it isn't a clear and obvious error if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide.

    The idea has some merit, but isn't working well in practice.
    21 minutes of extra time! That’s ridiculous. I’m all for using technology to get decisions right, but there seems something radically wrong there.
    It is becoming the norm now and not primarily because of VAR. The new rules say that all non playing time, rather than just stoppage due to injuries, has to be logged and added on at the end of each half. Very few games are now less than 100 minutes.

    Mind you it comes off the back of recent studies that showed that actual playing time is only about 2/3rds of game time in the Premier League - and they are better than some of the other leagues.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1359233/premier-league-in-play-time/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    nico679 said:

    The latest scapegoat seems to be benefit claimants who will now be subject to having their bank account monitored.

    The treasury have come up with imaginary savings. This is deeply disturbing on many levels , where does it end .

    Benefit fraud is tiny but the government attitude is to treat all claimants as guilty

    As opposed to “non-doms” and people “living” in the Isle of Man, who appear to be treated as innocent, even if guilty.
    We should tell the Channel Islands, the IoM and any other of those tax havens sponging off the UK state to bring their tax systems into line with the rest of the UK or bugger off and become independent.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,125
    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    The latest scapegoat seems to be benefit claimants who will now be subject to having their bank account monitored.

    The treasury have come up with imaginary savings. This is deeply disturbing on many levels , where does it end .

    Benefit fraud is tiny but the government attitude is to treat all claimants as guilty

    Once the principle of banks scanning customer accounts for potential fraud markers is established, it is unlikely to stop at benefits claimants.
    They do that anyway? When you sort out a high-value online order you get a flag from the bank if there is fraud risk associated with the account used to pay.
    Someone has noticed that the fraud detection systems (that randomly lock transactions to annoy you) can look at other things.

    Next will be using the rules about reporting to push detection of other kinds of fraud/tax evasion onto the banks.
  • Eabhal said:

    Another XL Bully attack: https://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/crime/dangerous-dog-police-confirm-armed-officers-shot-dog-dead-after-two-people-hurt-in-calderdale-village-attack-4400029

    Took a police helicopter and armed cops to subdue it, like a rampaging terrorist. There are rumours online about the injuries sustained.

    The consistent problem is their ability to jump fences, so the policy of allowing them access to gardens even after the ban comes into place is not going to work.

    It's a bit circumstantial - a guy said he 'understood' it was a big dog and a 'friend' had told him it was an XL Bully.

    The problem is the owners. Also in saying to people that the issue is with the breed therefore implying all other dogs are safe. They are not in the wrong circumstances. The Dangerous Dogs Act is a bad piece of legislation and has not stopped the issues.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
    I watched the match last night. Vastly entertaining, but not for football reasons. 5 disallowed goals, 2 redcards and 21 minutes of extra time. There were occasional bits of good football between the petulance and aggression, as well as long periods standing round waiting for VAR decisions.

    VAR should be for clear and obvious errors, and it isn't a clear and obvious error if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide.

    The idea has some merit, but isn't working well in practice.
    21 minutes of extra time! That’s ridiculous. I’m all for using technology to get decisions right, but there seems something radically wrong there.
    It is becoming the norm now and not primarily because of VAR. The new rules say that all non playing time, rather than just stoppage due to injuries, has to be logged and added on at the end of each half. Very few games are now less than 100 minutes.

    Mind you it comes off the back of recent studies that showed that actual playing time is only about 2/3rds of game time in the Premier League - and they are better than some of the other leagues.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1359233/premier-league-in-play-time/
    Shame football can't bring itself to copy the Rugby approach and stop the clock - clearer for everyone.

    But "not invented here" of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
    I watched the match last night. Vastly entertaining, but not for football reasons. 5 disallowed goals, 2 redcards and 21 minutes of extra time. There were occasional bits of good football between the petulance and aggression, as well as long periods standing round waiting for VAR decisions.

    VAR should be for clear and obvious errors, and it isn't a clear and obvious error if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide.

    The idea has some merit, but isn't working well in practice.
    21 minutes of extra time! That’s ridiculous. I’m all for using technology to get decisions right, but there seems something radically wrong there.
    It is becoming the norm now and not primarily because of VAR. The new rules say that all non playing time, rather than just stoppage due to injuries, has to be logged and added on at the end of each half. Very few games are now less than 100 minutes.

    Mind you it comes off the back of recent studies that showed that actual playing time is only about 2/3rds of game time in the Premier League - and they are better than some of the other leagues.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1359233/premier-league-in-play-time/
    If they’re going to continually go so far over time, then they should really stop the stadium clock as they do in rugby. Could even give the ref a radio-linked watch.
  • Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    The latest scapegoat seems to be benefit claimants who will now be subject to having their bank account monitored.

    The treasury have come up with imaginary savings. This is deeply disturbing on many levels , where does it end .

    Benefit fraud is tiny but the government attitude is to treat all claimants as guilty

    Once the principle of banks scanning customer accounts for potential fraud markers is established, it is unlikely to stop at benefits claimants.
    They do that anyway? When you sort out a high-value online order you get a flag from the bank if there is fraud risk associated with the account used to pay.
    Not sure. TSE might know. The new proposal seems to be weekly or monthly scanning and then reporting to the government. It is not clear at what stage it is limited to benefits claimants, as it would probably be easier to scan everyone's accounts and then compare the results with a list of benefits claimants (even assuming the government supplies banks the list, which itself would raise privacy issues). To be cynical, this reads like some Tory SpAd dreamt it up one Wine Friday without any thought to the precise mechanism. Doubtless there is a Labour SpAd with a similar idea targeting tax evasion.

    Not to mention any sort of crime or even spies being paid by foreign governments. Cash won't help as the banks could be asked to compare spending against similar sized families; those not spending enough must be using illicitly-gained cash. The possibilities are endless.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Yet another example of the "ULZE / Minimum Wage / GDPR / pick-your-own-issue will bring about the end of the world" syndrome, I highlighted earlier.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,779

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Don't panic. Once the private schools go bust and are taken into public ownership and converted into comprehensives, the daddies' little lambs will be able to go back to them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,839
    IanB2 said:

    Poor Charles, having to read out the government's anti-environmental crap at his first King's Speech

    Given that Charles's carbon footprint is several hundred times that of someone with a diesel car and a sinful gas boiler in their semi, any objections would be rather hypocritical.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,557

    nico679 said:

    The latest scapegoat seems to be benefit claimants who will now be subject to having their bank account monitored.

    The treasury have come up with imaginary savings. This is deeply disturbing on many levels , where does it end .

    Benefit fraud is tiny but the government attitude is to treat all claimants as guilty

    As opposed to “non-doms” and people “living” in the Isle of Man, who appear to be treated as innocent, even if guilty.
    We should tell the Channel Islands, the IoM and any other of those tax havens sponging off the UK state to bring their tax systems into line with the rest of the UK or bugger off and become independent.
    How are they “sponging off the UK state” out of interest?
  • On topic - I think we need more polling. Khan is not popular. However, ULEZ has happened and the world has not fallen in. Instead, lots of people have found out they are not affected.

    What’s more, Hall seems to be a cross between Braverman and Truss, pro-Trump and pro-Brexit. She’s not exactly the ideal candidate for London.

    As I say, though, Khan is unpopular and has been as ineffective as his predecessor. He’s vulnerable and would probably lose to a more mainstream Tory or to a right-of-centre independent like Rory Stewart. If I were Hall, I’d forget ULEZ and go hard on crime.

    Corbyn won’t stand. If he did it would mean immediate expulsion from the Labour party and he wants to keep his membership for as long as possible.

    How many times do we hear "if this gets implemented the electorate will be up in arms" only for the issue to be forgotten 3 months after implementation? Minimum wage and GDPR spring to mind as other examples.

    It was obvious that ULEZ would be forgotten after a couple of months, as I posted in August. And so it is proving.

    It makes me think Labour should be much bolder: Wealth tax, rolling NI into ICT, phase out private education, replace the HoL with an elected assembly. They's probably get away with all of those since most people would be unaffected or better off.
    When will GDPR be abolished as a Brexit benefit? One side-effect (and I must stress this is anecdotal) will be to allow Microsoft to loosen all your security settings at each update, as it is said to do to US users. That said, most people do not realise how much data they send back to Microsoft just by using Windows, let alone other software.
  • Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Yet another example of the "ULZE / Minimum Wage / GDPR / pick-your-own-issue will bring about the end of the world" syndrome, I highlighted earlier.
    Sad because the one thing you could rely on from the posh in the old days was a certain amount of sang froid, a stiff upper lip, a coolness under fire. Now they're all getting hysterical over having to pay VAT on school fees like they're facing the Black Hole of Calcutta. Where is David Cameron when you need him to tell them to Calm Down, Dear. Seriously, if the poshos can't keep calm and carry on what is the point of having them at all?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471

    IanB2 said:

    Poor Charles, having to read out the government's anti-environmental crap at his first King's Speech

    Given that Charles's carbon footprint is several hundred times that of someone with a diesel car and a sinful gas boiler in their semi, any objections would be rather hypocritical.
    On the other hand, he has spent decades - before it was even trendy - promoting environmental issues.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347
    edited November 2023

    Eabhal said:

    Another XL Bully attack: https://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/crime/dangerous-dog-police-confirm-armed-officers-shot-dog-dead-after-two-people-hurt-in-calderdale-village-attack-4400029

    Took a police helicopter and armed cops to subdue it, like a rampaging terrorist. There are rumours online about the injuries sustained.

    The consistent problem is their ability to jump fences, so the policy of allowing them access to gardens even after the ban comes into place is not going to work.

    It's a bit circumstantial - a guy said he 'understood' it was a big dog and a 'friend' had told him it was an XL Bully.

    The problem is the owners. Also in saying to people that the issue is with the breed therefore implying all other dogs are safe. They are not in the wrong circumstances. The Dangerous Dogs Act is a bad piece of legislation and has not stopped the issues.
    Quite a few reports, including ones touted on here, just say 'big dog bit someone', say it might possibly be an XLB, and then scream and shout in ever-decreasing circles. Given the rate of non-XLB incidents at the best of times, it won't be [edit] helping to convince the opponents of measures against XLBs - indeed, it might encourage an actual reaction against them, and the flaws of the DDA.

    That's not to say something doesn't need to be done about XLBs etc. But it doesn't help.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,684
    edited November 2023

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Yet another example of the "ULZE / Minimum Wage / GDPR / pick-your-own-issue will bring about the end of the world" syndrome, I highlighted earlier.
    Hmm. Not so sure about that. Unlike the ULEZ issue, we know that VAT on private schools will have a big impact on both the schools and the parents and it seems inevitable it will put more pressure on the state sector schools. So whther you agree with private education or not, from a practical point of view I very much doubt it will do anything to help wider education spending or improve the lot of state schools.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,232
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Spurs.

    Loving Ange and Mikel's hypocrisy over VAR, absolutely glorious.
    What hypocrisy?
    Arteta after the Spurs v Liverpool match.

    ““We need to understand, mistakes happen”

    Mikel Arteta - October 2023


    https://twitter.com/stehoare/status/1720899268267938019
    Thing is, I wasn't angry back in February when the VAR forgot to check offside on the Brentford goal. That one and the Liverpool one at Spurs are genuine human errors which will happen. The focus should be on the protocol to reduce the chance of those sorts of fuck ups.

    What annoys me is when someone watches a forearm smash to the head and thinks "nah, that's fine".
    I watched the match last night. Vastly entertaining, but not for football reasons. 5 disallowed goals, 2 redcards and 21 minutes of extra time. There were occasional bits of good football between the petulance and aggression, as well as long periods standing round waiting for VAR decisions.

    VAR should be for clear and obvious errors, and it isn't a clear and obvious error if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide.

    The idea has some merit, but isn't working well in practice.
    I agree, VAR for clear and obvious errors only and whether ball has crossed goal line. I think this is how many supporter understood the plan to be. What has transpired is ruining football IMO.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/dec/30/var-should-only-be-used-for-clear-and-obvious-offside-errors-say-law-makers
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,125
    Chris said:

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Don't panic. Once the private schools go bust and are taken into public ownership and converted into comprehensives, the daddies' little lambs will be able to go back to them.
    That would be sane. But won’t happen. Because it wouldn’t follow process.

    I mean, you couldn’t have a comp without dodgy concrete in the roof, right? It would take 3 years to prepare the reports on the social inclusiveness of the paint scheme as well.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347

    Drivers are patiently waiting to see whether King Charles will introduce new laws to protect road users and improve the state of motoring in the UK.
    https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/driving-law-changes-kings-speech-impact

    Does GB News fully understand our constitutional settlement? "Drivers are patiently waiting" is bad enough.

    At least one of us would love to take England back to the days of Divine Right, however.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is discussion of VAR more or less tedious than the great cash debate ?

    VAR currently shading it.
    Either's fine, just don't let Leon get back onto his pet subject.
    Himself ?
    Nah. But let's not catalyse the day's debates.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,773
    RWP said:

    I think that Hall would get more votes if she had a running mate called Oates, ideally shorter with darker hair and a dodgy 'tache.

    Priti is still in the HoC.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    edited November 2023
    RWP said:

    I think that Hall would get more votes if she had a running mate called Oates...

    She had - but he went out, and said he might be some time.


    I think Scott told me.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,812

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Law of unintended consequences. Free university tuition fees in Scotland has proven a very welcome handout to upper income families whose kids overwhelmingly go to uni. While the inevitable reduction in places for homegrown students has done little to promote social mobility as the unis focus on recruiting well-off overseas students who pay fees.
  • Sean_F said:

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Yet another example of the "ULZE / Minimum Wage / GDPR / pick-your-own-issue will bring about the end of the world" syndrome, I highlighted earlier.
    Hmm. Not so sure about that. Unlike the ULEZ issue, we know that VAT on private schools will have a big impact on both the schools and the parents and it seems inevitable it will put more pressure on the state sector schools. So whther you agree with private education or not, from a practical point of view I very much doubt it will do anything to help wider education spending or improve the lot of state schools.
    It's not intended to boost state schools. It's intended to deliver a poke in the eye, to people they don't like.
    No this is just posh people making it all about themselves, as usual. The idea is to raise more money for state schools, which the privately educated Tory Cabinet seems not to consider worthy of more money for some mysterious reason. I look forward to my kids' education being properly resourced by a government that treats them as the priority, not the 7% who attend private schools. Also good to correct an unjustifiable anomaly in the tax system.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,232
    Sean_F said:

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Yet another example of the "ULZE / Minimum Wage / GDPR / pick-your-own-issue will bring about the end of the world" syndrome, I highlighted earlier.
    Hmm. Not so sure about that. Unlike the ULEZ issue, we know that VAT on private schools will have a big impact on both the schools and the parents and it seems inevitable it will put more pressure on the state sector schools. So whther you agree with private education or not, from a practical point of view I very much doubt it will do anything to help wider education spending or improve the lot of state schools.
    It's not intended to boost state schools. It's intended to deliver a poke in the eye, to people they don't like.
    In a way they will be paying three times.

    First the tax they pay that helps pay state schools. Secondly, they forgo the benefit they have paid for but won't use and thirdly the VAT on the alternative option chosen.

    Whether you agree with that comes down to ideology of course.

    As a smallish-state liberal, I think for me this comes a tad to close judgementally saying 'this is what we, the state, provides and this is what you SHOULD use' rather than supporting individual choice; though I find this one a tricky issue and am open as always to be persuaded otherwise.
  • I am bemused to read that the King’s speech will contain hardline sentencing measures. We all know that this is pure political posturing. They want a wedge issue to try and portray Labour as being soft on crime.

    Which is funny. The Tories have presided over a collapse in the criminal justice system. Cuts have removed capacity in the CPS and the courts, and even access to legal representation. Cases taking an eternity to get to trial, and then judges instructed not to send serious offenders to jail as they are full.

    The usual question- do the Tories really think voters are that stupid? And don’t the polls show that the majority can see right through them.
  • The usual question- do the Tories really think voters are that stupid?

    Yes

    And don’t the polls show that the majority can see right through them.

    Yes

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Yet another example of the "ULZE / Minimum Wage / GDPR / pick-your-own-issue will bring about the end of the world" syndrome, I highlighted earlier.
    Family member (deputy head at a leading London private school) has an interesting take on this - just one take, of course, but part of his job is managing numbers and applications.

    As he sees it,some of their parents will be priced out, but they are planning to go to the next school down (in fees) as it were and - in most cases - for the next child rather than moving the current one, although some would be forced out more quickly. He has no worries about filling those places as they have more applicants than they can accommodate and can fill their places with, particularly, families from overseas (China in particular) wanting to send their children. So he sees a cascade effect, where the top schools fill in from unmet demand and a section in each school move down to the one below (at the bottom some transfering to state). So he sees more kids in state education, but doesn't think there will be much overall effect on the private sector numbers - possibly some problems for those at the bottom really not adding value versus state for the fees.

    If correct, this would mean more kids to accommodate in the state system (but well under 1/5th of current private numbers, so the VAT on fees should more than cover those costs) and increased overseas income from more foreign pupils attending the top private schools.

    He's a signed up member of the metropolitan remoaner liberal elite, but centrist in views - e.g. voted for Justine Greening when in Putney. He's ambivalent overall on the VAT on schools issue; thinks reviewing charity status would make more sense.
  • I believe the principle is that you charge VAT on services. Education is a service. How silly for people to be wailing and gnashing about the outrage of treating one service the same as another service.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424
    edited November 2023
    The small, rural state comprehensive of which I am a Governor will be delighted to welcome any former private school pupils together with the £5,700 per year additional funding they will bring… their engaged and demanding parents won’t be a bad thing either…
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Called it, see yesterday’s thread.

    Labour’s policy is screwing over working class kids.

    Why panicked private-school parents are fighting each other for a place at the local comp

    Labour's plan to charge VAT on fees has sparked a scramble for the top state schools – and put the independent sector in peril


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2023/11/06/labour-vat-tax-policy-private-school-state-parents-student/

    Law of unintended consequences. Free university tuition fees in Scotland has proven a very welcome handout to upper income families whose kids overwhelmingly go to uni. While the inevitable reduction in places for homegrown students has done little to promote social mobility as the unis focus on recruiting well-off overseas students who pay fees.
    That's not just a Scotland issue - is the money actually paid to universities for English versus Scottish students (for example) any different? All universities are scrabbling for overseas students with full economic costs fees as the funding for home students is not enough for most courses.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,399

    Seriously, if the poshos can't keep calm and carry on what is the point of having them at all?

    I don't think we have them. I think they have us. :(

This discussion has been closed.