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Why Trump not winning WH2024 could be a value bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    Also in this photo the black collar of his shirt is all wrong on the right side (for the viewer) - how is the white cloth suddenly obscuring the black?

    The more you look, the more anomalies you see

    I mean yes its blurry and a little odd, the fabric could well be folded over the boys left shoulder. The boys left ear: for sure is blurry and looks suspicious but it could be a compression artifact. You have zoomed into the low res image so who knows... we're now examining pixels.
  • Breaking: Cummings defends Boris shock!!!

    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    Either serious ignorance or wilfully distorting - the whole 'best prepared in the world', 'world beating pandemic plan' riff came from Cabinet Office and DHSC.

    It's convenient for everybody to blame Boris for everything now but it's interesting how even the supposed serious academics join the twitter dynamic instead of looking at the evidence.

    The reason this meme was so damaging is because it was NOT just Boris-babble, it was institutionalised by the REMAIN-supporting (mostly) civil service, as was their extreme resistance to learning from Asia.

    If you are un-historical & think this is all about brexit, then you won't fix the problems in Whitehall
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited November 2023
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Yes, I saw that

    Credits UNI463117

    It seems they have simply credited themselves. Their email address is

    aise@uni.net

    Which makes me even more suspicious. No photographer's name? No real photo agency?

    My guess is this is a harrassed photo editor of the website, given a story on kids suffering in Gaza, who has grabbed something off the net. And it's fake

    The blurring is absolutely typical of AI image-glitching, and yet I've never seen blurring like that in a "real" photo
  • I wouldn't put this bet on re Trump simply because too much can happen over the next 12 months.

    However, the 14th Amendment argument to stop Trump has been attacked on a number of angles. One of the major ones, which does not seem to be mentioned, is that it only refers to 'Officers of the United States' and it is clear that Trump, elected as President, would not qualify under the definition of an Officer. There are also numerous arguments over whether the Amendment is actually still legally binding (subsequent legislation seems to have gutted many of its provisions).

    I would say if you want better value, go with outside bets on the Democrat nominee given the uptick in talk about Biden needing to step down given the polling, Democrat Governors seem the best bet and you can get (on Ladbrokes) Whitmer at 100/1, Jared Polis / Roy Cooper at 200/1 which seem good outside bets for a few quid.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    "Can you name every London underground station? Tube name game goes viral
    London Metro Memory has had more than 150,000 visits in only a few days since launch"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/24/tube-memory-game-goes-viral-on-london-underground/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    Also in this photo the black collar of his shirt is all wrong on the right side (for the viewer) - how is the white cloth suddenly obscuring the black?

    The more you look, the more anomalies you see

    I mean yes its blurry and a little odd, the fabric could well be folded over the boys left shoulder. The boys left ear: for sure is blurry and looks suspicious but it could be a compression artifact. You have zoomed into the low res image so who knows... we're now examining pixels.
    To me it now looks obviously and totally fake, yet the fact I cannot convince others on here (and, also, the fact I could still be wrong) is the more important point

    We are well across the Uncanny Valley and into the post-truth world, vis a vis AI and images
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    edited November 2023
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Seems to be UNICEF image with a little more context:
    https://www.unicef.org/malaysia/press-releases/appeal-children-and-families-gaza

    Edit: And look no blurry ear fuzz.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Seems to be UNICEF image with a little more context:
    https://www.unicef.org/malaysia/press-releases/appeal-children-and-families-gaza
    Bravo. OK that complicates things

    Maybe it IS real!

    Tho the fact this is UNICEF in Malaysia makes me suspicious in a different way

    Further investigation required
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Aise = Agenzia Internazionale Stampa Estero

    Mentioned at https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agenzia_di_stampa
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Guy on Newsnight says Braverman is trying to get fired. Makes sense I guess.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited November 2023

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Seems to be UNICEF image with a little more context:
    https://www.unicef.org/malaysia/press-releases/appeal-children-and-families-gaza

    Edit: And look no blurry ear fuzz.

    Yes there is blurry ear fuzz!


    However the photographer - if it is correctly sourced - appears to be real. Eyad al Baba, lives and works in Gaza


    https://www.instagram.com/eyad.albaba/

    More work here:

    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20181120-leaving-palestinian-children-behind-on-world-childrens-day/
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    Off topic, but this track has been rattling round my head all day :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Sw61oITuts

    'The Decemberists - "The Mariner's Revenge Song"'
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Seems to be UNICEF image with a little more context:
    https://www.unicef.org/malaysia/press-releases/appeal-children-and-families-gaza
    Bravo. OK that complicates things

    Maybe it IS real!

    Tho the fact this is UNICEF in Malaysia makes me suspicious in a different way

    Further investigation required
    God, it's hard work being a journo.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited November 2023
    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Watched the 1953 Hollywood production of Julius Caesar on iplayer last night.
    James Mason as Brutus, John Gielgud as Cassius, and.......Marlon Brando as Mark Antony.
    Thankfully fimed in noirish black & white rather than technicolor.
    Utterly engrossing.
    Was there ever a better piece of political writing?

    I shall give that a watch.

    On the ITV player both the best Sci Fi horror film of the 1950s (Invasion of the Bodysnatchers) and the brilliant NZ film "Once Were Warriors" are worth catching too.
    (I will resist the urge to go thru all the sci-fi 1950s films and rate them, and will instead acknowledge that IotBS has a good claim. I will however briefly mention the Quatermass Experiment, When Worlds Collide, and The Day The Earth Stood Still, accompanied with a brief cough)
    Outside of these 'films' you speak of - Quatermass II is the bestest. And if you must speak of films, 'The Day The Earth Caught Fire' is the dogs....
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Seems to be UNICEF image with a little more context:
    https://www.unicef.org/malaysia/press-releases/appeal-children-and-families-gaza
    Bravo. OK that complicates things

    Maybe it IS real!

    Tho the fact this is UNICEF in Malaysia makes me suspicious in a different way

    Further investigation required
    God, it's hard work being a journo.
    It's also fun. This is Sherlocking you can do at home from the comfort of a laptop

    I am moderately sure now that the photo is real. About 70%. Kudos to @MightyAlex for sleuthing the source

    It is possible this Eyad al Baba guy has faked a photo, it is also possible the agency has misattributed an AI photo to him, but it seems a lot of hassle when the photo isn't that great, anyway

    And it turns out rubbish photos can have the exact same blurring you get in AI fakery. Which is, in itself, another level of disturbing complexity....
  • I wouldn't put this bet on re Trump simply because too much can happen over the next 12 months.

    However, the 14th Amendment argument to stop Trump has been attacked on a number of angles. One of the major ones, which does not seem to be mentioned, is that it only refers to 'Officers of the United States' and it is clear that Trump, elected as President, would not qualify under the definition of an Officer. There are also numerous arguments over whether the Amendment is actually still legally binding (subsequent legislation seems to have gutted many of its provisions).

    I would say if you want better value, go with outside bets on the Democrat nominee given the uptick in talk about Biden needing to step down given the polling, Democrat Governors seem the best bet and you can get (on Ladbrokes) Whitmer at 100/1, Jared Polis / Roy Cooper at 200/1 which seem good outside bets for a few quid.

    BF seems to think if Biden falls then it is Newsom. Or Michelle.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
    True. But I like to solve a puzzle the hard but satisfying way

    But that blurred ear still gives me the heebie-jeebies. Is it truly impossible a hard-pressed photojournalist in Gaza has not thought, "Fuck it, I need the money, let's create a memorable image on Midjourney that I can sell"?

    I wouldn't really blame him
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Seems to be UNICEF image with a little more context:
    https://www.unicef.org/malaysia/press-releases/appeal-children-and-families-gaza
    Bravo. OK that complicates things

    Maybe it IS real!

    Tho the fact this is UNICEF in Malaysia makes me suspicious in a different way

    Further investigation required
    God, it's hard work being a journo.
    It's also fun. This is Sherlocking you can do at home from the comfort of a laptop

    I am moderately sure now that the photo is real. About 70%. Kudos to @MightyAlex for sleuthing the source

    It is possible this Eyad al Baba guy has faked a photo, it is also possible the agency has misattributed an AI photo to him, but it seems a lot of hassle when the photo isn't that great, anyway

    And it turns out rubbish photos can have the exact same blurring you get in AI fakery. Which is, in itself, another level of disturbing complexity....
    I'm going to 100% not guess that you've not followed any of the research papers from the past few months. I look forward to your articles mirroring the demise of the Betamax.

    I say this as someone deeply sad and troubled about the research papers from the past few months, And todays OpenAI keynote.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Seems to be UNICEF image with a little more context:
    https://www.unicef.org/malaysia/press-releases/appeal-children-and-families-gaza
    Bravo. OK that complicates things

    Maybe it IS real!

    Tho the fact this is UNICEF in Malaysia makes me suspicious in a different way

    Further investigation required
    God, it's hard work being a journo.
    It's also fun. This is Sherlocking you can do at home from the comfort of a laptop

    I am moderately sure now that the photo is real. About 70%. Kudos to @MightyAlex for sleuthing the source

    It is possible this Eyad al Baba guy has faked a photo, it is also possible the agency has misattributed an AI photo to him, but it seems a lot of hassle when the photo isn't that great, anyway

    And it turns out rubbish photos can have the exact same blurring you get in AI fakery. Which is, in itself, another level of disturbing complexity....
    I'm going to 100% not guess that you've not followed any of the research papers from the past few months. I look forward to your articles mirroring the demise of the Betamax.

    I say this as someone deeply sad and troubled about the research papers from the past few months, And todays OpenAI keynote.
    Educate me!

    Links!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    FWIW this is my final position of the evening on THAT photo, I know PB is agog to hear this

    It looks like there is a source, and he is a real photo-journalist, and he's not very good, and he does live in Gaza

    And, also, there are several anomalies in that photo which are still a little disquieting

    So I'm right back at 50/50. I just don't know. I'll shut up now and watch Masterchef
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
    True. But I like to solve a puzzle the hard but satisfying way

    But that blurred ear still gives me the heebie-jeebies. Is it truly impossible a hard-pressed photojournalist in Gaza has not thought, "Fuck it, I need the money, let's create a memorable image on Midjourney that I can sell"?

    I wouldn't really blame him
    Any hard pressed photojournalist would be using A1111 and knock that up in 5 seconds with img2img. Why give midjourney $20. We're well beyond that now.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This here. What photographer sends out an image like this, with these blurs?

    On the contrary, I know for a fact AI produces these weird blurs


    There’s one surefire way of finding out, which would probably make for an interesting little diversion if one had time: ask the source. They are a news agency, so their images will presumably be sourced. They can then either answer with the name of the photographer or the agency they bought if from. If the latter, then you can ask them. Ultimately you’d be able to trace it back either to a genuine photographer or a mysterious/unreliable source in which case you could conclude it’s fake.

    News outlets like the beeb will have to do that kind of thing as a matter of course in future, as they already do to some extent to rule out old reposted photos, another scourge of social media.
    Are you still confident it's real, despite the anomalies I have pointed out?

    I am not trying to *gotcha* you, I am genuinely curious
    No I’m not. I’m not an expert. But not convinced it’s AI either. Though not being AI doesn’t mean it’s not photoshopped of course.

    The article has “credits uni1463117” under the shot. It would be interesting to do a little detective story on this. If it’s a real photo it may of course not be recent or even of Gaza. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve used a (possibly old) stock photo of “child migration”.

    Interesting media studies lesson.
    Seems to be UNICEF image with a little more context:
    https://www.unicef.org/malaysia/press-releases/appeal-children-and-families-gaza
    Bravo. OK that complicates things

    Maybe it IS real!

    Tho the fact this is UNICEF in Malaysia makes me suspicious in a different way

    Further investigation required
    God, it's hard work being a journo.
    It's also fun. This is Sherlocking you can do at home from the comfort of a laptop

    I am moderately sure now that the photo is real. About 70%. Kudos to @MightyAlex for sleuthing the source

    It is possible this Eyad al Baba guy has faked a photo, it is also possible the agency has misattributed an AI photo to him, but it seems a lot of hassle when the photo isn't that great, anyway

    And it turns out rubbish photos can have the exact same blurring you get in AI fakery. Which is, in itself, another level of disturbing complexity....
    I'm going to 100% not guess that you've not followed any of the research papers from the past few months. I look forward to your articles mirroring the demise of the Betamax.

    I say this as someone deeply sad and troubled about the research papers from the past few months, And todays OpenAI keynote.
    Educate me!

    Links!
    https://google.com

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
    True. But I like to solve a puzzle the hard but satisfying way

    But that blurred ear still gives me the heebie-jeebies. Is it truly impossible a hard-pressed photojournalist in Gaza has not thought, "Fuck it, I need the money, let's create a memorable image on Midjourney that I can sell"?

    I wouldn't really blame him
    Any hard pressed photojournalist would be using A1111 and knock that up in 5 seconds with img2img. Why give midjourney $20. We're well beyond that now.
    The photo is real. lol

    I just found this. Clearly from the same sequence. The same blankets and mattresses


    https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/11/03/world/un-news/humanitarian-ceasefires-critical-to-meet-immense-needs-in-gaza/1917959

    100% real

  • I wouldn't put this bet on re Trump simply because too much can happen over the next 12 months.

    However, the 14th Amendment argument to stop Trump has been attacked on a number of angles. One of the major ones, which does not seem to be mentioned, is that it only refers to 'Officers of the United States' and it is clear that Trump, elected as President, would not qualify under the definition of an Officer. There are also numerous arguments over whether the Amendment is actually still legally binding (subsequent legislation seems to have gutted many of its provisions).

    I would say if you want better value, go with outside bets on the Democrat nominee given the uptick in talk about Biden needing to step down given the polling, Democrat Governors seem the best bet and you can get (on Ladbrokes) Whitmer at 100/1, Jared Polis / Roy Cooper at 200/1 which seem good outside bets for a few quid.

    BF seems to think if Biden falls then it is Newsom. Or Michelle.
    Newsom is too slick for the nomination plus has a big image problem as Governor of California i.e. nobody in the midwest for a start would vote for him.

    Michelle Obama....mmmm....
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
    True. But I like to solve a puzzle the hard but satisfying way

    But that blurred ear still gives me the heebie-jeebies. Is it truly impossible a hard-pressed photojournalist in Gaza has not thought, "Fuck it, I need the money, let's create a memorable image on Midjourney that I can sell"?

    I wouldn't really blame him
    Any hard pressed photojournalist would be using A1111 and knock that up in 5 seconds with img2img. Why give midjourney $20. We're well beyond that now.
    The photo is real. lol

    I just found this. Clearly from the same sequence. The same blankets and mattresses


    https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/11/03/world/un-news/humanitarian-ceasefires-critical-to-meet-immense-needs-in-gaza/1917959

    100% real

    Well done. You've emulated an AI at 1/100 the speed and 100x the cost. Congrats. Bonuses all roundI
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    "Obama adviser suggests Biden should drop out of 2024 presidential race

    David Axelrod says President must decide if running again is in the country’s best interests after poll shows 2020 rematch would go for Trump if held today"

    https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-trump-election-2024-axelrod-b2442475.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
    True. But I like to solve a puzzle the hard but satisfying way

    But that blurred ear still gives me the heebie-jeebies. Is it truly impossible a hard-pressed photojournalist in Gaza has not thought, "Fuck it, I need the money, let's create a memorable image on Midjourney that I can sell"?

    I wouldn't really blame him
    Any hard pressed photojournalist would be using A1111 and knock that up in 5 seconds with img2img. Why give midjourney $20. We're well beyond that now.
    The photo is real. lol

    I just found this. Clearly from the same sequence. The same blankets and mattresses


    https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/11/03/world/un-news/humanitarian-ceasefires-critical-to-meet-immense-needs-in-gaza/1917959

    100% real

    Well done. You've emulated an AI at 1/100 the speed and 100x the cost. Congrats. Bonuses all roundI
    Thanks. Tho let it be noted it was actually me that first posited the conundrum, went all round the houses with multiple options (as is my wont) but then actually solved my own puzzle (with major help from @MightyAlex)

    A fitting conclusion in a surreal world
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    I wouldn't put this bet on re Trump simply because too much can happen over the next 12 months.

    However, the 14th Amendment argument to stop Trump has been attacked on a number of angles. One of the major ones, which does not seem to be mentioned, is that it only refers to 'Officers of the United States' and it is clear that Trump, elected as President, would not qualify under the definition of an Officer. There are also numerous arguments over whether the Amendment is actually still legally binding (subsequent legislation seems to have gutted many of its provisions).

    I would say if you want better value, go with outside bets on the Democrat nominee given the uptick in talk about Biden needing to step down given the polling, Democrat Governors seem the best bet and you can get (on Ladbrokes) Whitmer at 100/1, Jared Polis / Roy Cooper at 200/1 which seem good outside bets for a few quid.

    It's Newsom or nobody isn't it? He would definitely do it if he thought he could drive home the killing blow on Biden but if he tried and failed...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,916

    I wouldn't put this bet on re Trump simply because too much can happen over the next 12 months.

    However, the 14th Amendment argument to stop Trump has been attacked on a number of angles. One of the major ones, which does not seem to be mentioned, is that it only refers to 'Officers of the United States' and it is clear that Trump, elected as President, would not qualify under the definition of an Officer. There are also numerous arguments over whether the Amendment is actually still legally binding (subsequent legislation seems to have gutted many of its provisions).

    I would say if you want better value, go with outside bets on the Democrat nominee given the uptick in talk about Biden needing to step down given the polling, Democrat Governors seem the best bet and you can get (on Ladbrokes) Whitmer at 100/1, Jared Polis / Roy Cooper at 200/1 which seem good outside bets for a few quid.

    'The members of the 39th Congress who drafted Section Three spoke of the president as “an officer of the United States/Constitution” and as an “officer under the United States/Constitution.” They spoke of the presidency as “an office of the United States/Constitution” and as an “office under the United States/Constitution.”
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/disqualification-office-donald-trump-v-39th-congress
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
    True. But I like to solve a puzzle the hard but satisfying way

    But that blurred ear still gives me the heebie-jeebies. Is it truly impossible a hard-pressed photojournalist in Gaza has not thought, "Fuck it, I need the money, let's create a memorable image on Midjourney that I can sell"?

    I wouldn't really blame him
    Any hard pressed photojournalist would be using A1111 and knock that up in 5 seconds with img2img. Why give midjourney $20. We're well beyond that now.
    The photo is real. lol

    I just found this. Clearly from the same sequence. The same blankets and mattresses


    https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/11/03/world/un-news/humanitarian-ceasefires-critical-to-meet-immense-needs-in-gaza/1917959

    100% real

    Well done. You've emulated an AI at 1/100 the speed and 100x the cost. Congrats. Bonuses all roundI
    Thanks. Tho let it be noted it was actually me that first posited the conundrum, went all round the houses with multiple options (as is my wont) but then actually solved my own puzzle (with major help from @MightyAlex)

    A fitting conclusion in a surreal world
    "I posited something, then demonstrated it was (probably) false."

    I'm not entirely sure that persuades me to pay for a GBNewsSpectator subscription.

    And if you haven't watched todays OpenAi keynote - it's worth doing so. It's certainly made me rewrite a few 'here's how you can....' talks.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    Clarification: I've deleted previous tweets about death of Ukrainian Major Hennadiy Chastyakov after Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko clarified this was not an assassination but an accident. "He took out a box with grenades inside and started showing the ammunition to his son."
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1721634493365154191

    That's an impressive lie even by Ukrainian standards.

    A senior staff officer goes into his flat and starts playing with live grenades with his kid? A funny thing happened on the way to the SMO...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    CatMan said:

    Guy on Newsnight says Braverman is trying to get fired. Makes sense I guess.

    She's been untouchable ever since Sunak felt that he not only had to reward her for her support by giving her a job, which was defendable, but indeed restoring her to a position she'd had to quit mere days earlier. It was so absurd it demonstrated how clearly they both must have felt she had him over a barrel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    Clarification: I've deleted previous tweets about death of Ukrainian Major Hennadiy Chastyakov after Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko clarified this was not an assassination but an accident. "He took out a box with grenades inside and started showing the ammunition to his son."
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1721634493365154191

    That's an impressive lie even by Ukrainian standards.

    A senior staff officer goes into his flat and starts playing with live grenades with his kid? A funny thing happened on the way to the SMO...
    People have done stupider things in war and in peace, but I know where I'd lay my money nonetheless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited November 2023
    Even a casual observer of the contest knew this was likely coming for months, but it's still weird since actually he could, and that's the problem.

    Iowa GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds endorsed Ron DeSantis in the Republican primaries, saying Trump can’t win the general election.
    https://nitter.net/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1721673948499210247#m

    Also, he only just noticed?!

    Desantis: “With Trump, if you don’t kiss the ring, you could be the best Governor ever and he will trash you. You could be a terrible, corrupt politician, but if you kiss his ring then he will praise you
    https://nitter.net/RonFilipkowski/status/1721659933861499203#m

    The amazing thing is they all know it, but still kiss, because he's genuinely that powerful with their supporters.

  • Paul Goodman
    @PaulGoodmanCH
    +

    @ConHome 's Cabinet League Table. @JamesCleverly
    goes top for the first time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
    True. But I like to solve a puzzle the hard but satisfying way

    But that blurred ear still gives me the heebie-jeebies. Is it truly impossible a hard-pressed photojournalist in Gaza has not thought, "Fuck it, I need the money, let's create a memorable image on Midjourney that I can sell"?

    I wouldn't really blame him
    Any hard pressed photojournalist would be using A1111 and knock that up in 5 seconds with img2img. Why give midjourney $20. We're well beyond that now.
    The photo is real. lol

    I just found this. Clearly from the same sequence. The same blankets and mattresses


    https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/11/03/world/un-news/humanitarian-ceasefires-critical-to-meet-immense-needs-in-gaza/1917959

    100% real

    Well done. You've emulated an AI at 1/100 the speed and 100x the cost. Congrats. Bonuses all roundI
    Thanks. Tho let it be noted it was actually me that first posited the conundrum, went all round the houses with multiple options (as is my wont) but then actually solved my own puzzle (with major help from @MightyAlex)

    A fitting conclusion in a surreal world
    "I posited something, then demonstrated it was (probably) false."

    I'm not entirely sure that persuades me to pay for a GBNewsSpectator subscription.

    And if you haven't watched todays OpenAi keynote - it's worth doing so. It's certainly made me rewrite a few 'here's how you can....' talks.
    I started by saying “I don’t know” now at the end “I know”. Could be worse

    Thanks for the OpenAI tip. Will watch tomorrow
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083


    Paul Goodman
    @PaulGoodmanCH
    +

    @ConHome 's Cabinet League Table. @JamesCleverly
    goes top for the first time.

    The 'hasn't been obviously crap in the news lately' factor must be strong in their consideration.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    A significant proportion of younger generation Koreans are every bit as misogynist as their elders. One of the more unattractive aspects of their society (and probably a contributor to declining marriage and birth rates).

    Women's 'short hair campaign' unfolds online following assault against short-haired part-timer
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=362671
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    OK I think I'm wrong. He's a real photographer and he's been publishing images from Gaza for many years


    https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians


    https://twitter.com/reliefweb/status/1719217640097423478



    What's more, some of his other photos have the same blurring quality as the suspicious one of the kid

    https://m.facebook.com/unicefpalestine/photos/pcb.1109863685717230/1109862812383984/?locale=hi_IN


    Fascinating. Disturbing

    For someone so interested in AI, it's a surprise to me you haven't just asked the reverse image search to find the earliest copy and explain the context. Takes 10 seconds.
    True. But I like to solve a puzzle the hard but satisfying way

    But that blurred ear still gives me the heebie-jeebies. Is it truly impossible a hard-pressed photojournalist in Gaza has not thought, "Fuck it, I need the money, let's create a memorable image on Midjourney that I can sell"?

    I wouldn't really blame him
    Any hard pressed photojournalist would be using A1111 and knock that up in 5 seconds with img2img. Why give midjourney $20. We're well beyond that now.
    The photo is real. lol

    I just found this. Clearly from the same sequence. The same blankets and mattresses


    https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/11/03/world/un-news/humanitarian-ceasefires-critical-to-meet-immense-needs-in-gaza/1917959

    100% real

    Well done. You've emulated an AI at 1/100 the speed and 100x the cost. Congrats. Bonuses all roundI
    Thanks. Tho let it be noted it was actually me that first posited the conundrum, went all round the houses with multiple options (as is my wont) but then actually solved my own puzzle (with major help from @MightyAlex)

    A fitting conclusion in a surreal world
    I wonder if there is a grey market for real photographs that look a bit AI-ey? You could plant those photographs into the media and then claim your opponent has faked them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    Clarification: I've deleted previous tweets about death of Ukrainian Major Hennadiy Chastyakov after Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko clarified this was not an assassination but an accident. "He took out a box with grenades inside and started showing the ammunition to his son."
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1721634493365154191

    That's an impressive lie even by Ukrainian standards.

    A senior staff officer goes into his flat and starts playing with live grenades with his kid? A funny thing happened on the way to the SMO...
    The imoressive thing us that they changed the story. Almost as odd if it's untrue as it would be if true - they're usually much better at media management than that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Guests at Bored Ape event in Hong Kong struck by vision problems
    More than a dozen attenders of NFT group’s festival, which used ultraviolet light, complained of ‘eye burn’ on social media
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/06/guests-bored-ape-event-hong-kong-vision-problems

    Should amuse TSE.
  • algarkirk said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    This is a war which Hamas declared on 7th October. When your enemy intends to extinguish your entire nation you fight to the finish, sadly, which means Hamas relinquishing its war aims, and releasing the hostages.

    As Hamas knows this, the question to ask them is how many more than 10,000 is enough for them? I hope Gazans are asking it, but I have yet to hear a word of disagreement with Hamas from within Gaza.
    Translation: "10 lives for every Israeli!"
    Apparently Hamas numbers 25-30k

    Get there and start counting
    Well, 10,000 is almost 10 times 1,400, so the Israelis are almost there.
    You're quoting terrorist propaganda

    I'll believe the numbers once Hamas is eliminated

    So at least 15k to go
    Terrorist propaganda?

    On 25 October, US President Joe Biden stated he had "no confidence" in the death totals reported by the Gaza Health Ministry.[418][419] In response, Human Rights Watch stated that after three decades working in Gaza and conducting its own investigation, it considers Gaza Health Ministry's totals to be reliable.[419] Matthew Miller made a similar claim to Biden, despite the fact that the US Department of State cites the Gaza Health Ministry's death tolls in its own internal reports.[420]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war
    Even if your terrorist numbers are somewhere near accurate, how many of them were human shields?

    Those go in the Hamas kills column, not the Israeli's
    Israel is the one dropping the bombs
    On their genocidal enemy
    10,000 Palestinian deaths not enough for you?
    No

    We need at least 25-30k, to ensure the elimination of Hamas

    How many genocidal Hamas terrorists do you want to survive this?
    If you genuinely believe that then you are a certifiable lunatic. I have no doubt that Hamas are exaggerating the numbers of dead but given the nature of the conflict and the battleground I also have no doubt that there are far more innocent civilians dying than Hamas terrorists. So what you are actually saying is that you want tens of thousands of innocent civilians to die so you can pretend they have also killed all the terrorists (they won't kill them all of course because things are never that clear cut).

    Whether Israel are actually doing that or not is impossible to say but the fact you are advocating it as a policy makes you utter scum as bad as Hamas.

    I'm responding to Sunil's idiotic death tally

    "Biden Cast Doubt On Gaza’s Death Statistics — But Officials Cite Them Internally"

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/joe-biden-gaza-death-toll-state-department_n_653a80f3e4b0783c4ba0491f
    Some other people believe terrorist numbers
    US State Department
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Disgraceful third world political trial forcing Trump into talking shit.


    This is the liberal media at its worse.

    TRUMP WON IN 2020. Therefore, irrespective of who happens to live in the White House, he was President in 2021.

    (Sadly, this means he won't be eligible to stand this time around. But hey ho.)
    Nah - he hasn't served as President even though he is President, because of all the rigging. So he can serve again.

    I jest, but I do wonder if Trump sometimes really believes he is still President. He and his lawyers (presumably knowing his moods) react very negatively if people do not call him by title, and while part of that is standard american weirdness abotu ex-officials, I've definitely heard them call him 'The President' multiple times, not 'Mr President' or 'President Trump'.
    Let's all agree he won in 2020.

    Then he can't stand again in 2024. Two terms is your lot, Mr. President...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    Is the Gaza Health Ministry a reliable source of information?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    Andy_JS said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    Is the Gaza Health Ministry a reliable source of information?
    Depends on your objective

    If you wish to paint the Israelis in the most u favourable light then it is very reliable
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Andy_JS said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    Is the Gaza Health Ministry a reliable source of information?
    As reliable as the Russian Defence Ministry talking about the Ukraine war.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    Is the Gaza Health Ministry a reliable source of information?
    As reliable as the Russian Defence Ministry talking about the Ukraine war.
    I think @Dura_Ace believes the Russian Defence Ministry. ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    LOL
    Another Trump court case.

    NEW: THREAD: As many of you know, the trump administration fired me from the VA and investigated the Mueller, She Wrote podcast. I am now suing them for RETALIATION FOR PROTECTED SPEECH and CONSPIRACY among other things, and as of Friday, donald trump HAS BEEN SERVED. 1
    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1721698067400077597
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    A quite amusing cartoon that isn't Matt.
    https://twitter.com/AntiToxicPeople/status/1721684056595951727
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Somewhat to their credit, the May and Johnson governments managed to deal with Trump as their president. I wonder how well a Starmer government will manage to deal with him, given the wide ideological gulf between the Republicans and UK Labour, and the increasing oddities of Trump.
  • algarkirk said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    This is a war which Hamas declared on 7th October. When your enemy intends to extinguish your entire nation you fight to the finish, sadly, which means Hamas relinquishing its war aims, and releasing the hostages.

    As Hamas knows this, the question to ask them is how many more than 10,000 is enough for them? I hope Gazans are asking it, but I have yet to hear a word of disagreement with Hamas from within Gaza.
    Translation: "10 lives for every Israeli!"
    Apparently Hamas numbers 25-30k

    Get there and start counting
    Well, 10,000 is almost 10 times 1,400, so the Israelis are almost there.
    You're quoting terrorist propaganda

    I'll believe the numbers once Hamas is eliminated

    So at least 15k to go
    Terrorist propaganda?

    On 25 October, US President Joe Biden stated he had "no confidence" in the death totals reported by the Gaza Health Ministry.[418][419] In response, Human Rights Watch stated that after three decades working in Gaza and conducting its own investigation, it considers Gaza Health Ministry's totals to be reliable.[419] Matthew Miller made a similar claim to Biden, despite the fact that the US Department of State cites the Gaza Health Ministry's death tolls in its own internal reports.[420]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war
    Even if your terrorist numbers are somewhere near accurate, how many of them were human shields?

    Those go in the Hamas kills column, not the Israeli's
    Israel is the one dropping the bombs
    On their genocidal enemy
    10,000 Palestinian deaths not enough for you?
    No

    We need at least 25-30k, to ensure the elimination of Hamas

    How many genocidal Hamas terrorists do you want to survive this?
    If you genuinely believe that then you are a certifiable lunatic. I have no doubt that Hamas are exaggerating the numbers of dead but given the nature of the conflict and the battleground I also have no doubt that there are far more innocent civilians dying than Hamas terrorists. So what you are actually saying is that you want tens of thousands of innocent civilians to die so you can pretend they have also killed all the terrorists (they won't kill them all of course because things are never that clear cut).

    Whether Israel are actually doing that or not is impossible to say but the fact you are advocating it as a policy makes you utter scum as bad as Hamas.

    The only thing that is certifiably lunatic is to let Hamas survive this.

    Everyone who is fighting for, or supporting Hamas needs to be killed in this war until there is nobody left, or until they surrender unconditionally.

    Not ceasefire, surrender.

    Yes innocents die, and that's tragic, and its also Hamas' fault for using human shields, but you don't fight wars by letting the other side go scot free.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Breaking: Cummings defends Boris shock!!!

    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    Either serious ignorance or wilfully distorting - the whole 'best prepared in the world', 'world beating pandemic plan' riff came from Cabinet Office and DHSC.

    It's convenient for everybody to blame Boris for everything now but it's interesting how even the supposed serious academics join the twitter dynamic instead of looking at the evidence.

    The reason this meme was so damaging is because it was NOT just Boris-babble, it was institutionalised by the REMAIN-supporting (mostly) civil service, as was their extreme resistance to learning from Asia.

    If you are un-historical & think this is all about brexit, then you won't fix the problems in Whitehall

    That's hilarious. A man who's made a career out of wilfully ignoring evidence criticises others, and a man who thinks others obsess about Brexit blames his failures on Remainers.

    Cummings never did self-awareness, did he?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035

    algarkirk said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    This is a war which Hamas declared on 7th October. When your enemy intends to extinguish your entire nation you fight to the finish, sadly, which means Hamas relinquishing its war aims, and releasing the hostages.

    As Hamas knows this, the question to ask them is how many more than 10,000 is enough for them? I hope Gazans are asking it, but I have yet to hear a word of disagreement with Hamas from within Gaza.
    Translation: "10 lives for every Israeli!"
    Apparently Hamas numbers 25-30k

    Get there and start counting
    Well, 10,000 is almost 10 times 1,400, so the Israelis are almost there.
    You're quoting terrorist propaganda

    I'll believe the numbers once Hamas is eliminated

    So at least 15k to go
    Terrorist propaganda?

    On 25 October, US President Joe Biden stated he had "no confidence" in the death totals reported by the Gaza Health Ministry.[418][419] In response, Human Rights Watch stated that after three decades working in Gaza and conducting its own investigation, it considers Gaza Health Ministry's totals to be reliable.[419] Matthew Miller made a similar claim to Biden, despite the fact that the US Department of State cites the Gaza Health Ministry's death tolls in its own internal reports.[420]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war
    Even if your terrorist numbers are somewhere near accurate, how many of them were human shields?

    Those go in the Hamas kills column, not the Israeli's
    Israel is the one dropping the bombs
    On their genocidal enemy
    10,000 Palestinian deaths not enough for you?
    No

    We need at least 25-30k, to ensure the elimination of Hamas

    How many genocidal Hamas terrorists do you want to survive this?
    If you genuinely believe that then you are a certifiable lunatic. I have no doubt that Hamas are exaggerating the numbers of dead but given the nature of the conflict and the battleground I also have no doubt that there are far more innocent civilians dying than Hamas terrorists. So what you are actually saying is that you want tens of thousands of innocent civilians to die so you can pretend they have also killed all the terrorists (they won't kill them all of course because things are never that clear cut).

    Whether Israel are actually doing that or not is impossible to say but the fact you are advocating it as a policy makes you utter scum as bad as Hamas.

    The only thing that is certifiably lunatic is to let Hamas survive this.

    Everyone who is fighting for, or supporting Hamas needs to be killed in this war until there is nobody left, or until they surrender unconditionally.

    Not ceasefire, surrender.

    Yes innocents die, and that's tragic, and its also Hamas' fault for using human shields, but you don't fight wars by letting the other side go scot free.
    But killing thousands of innocent people, whatever the moral issues with it, is by far the best way to ensure that Hamas, or some successor, will have no shortage of recruits or softer supporters going forward. The Israeli invasion of Gaza, while completely refusing to address their grievances, is predictably playing into their hands in the medium long term. The festering sore that is the Palestinian issue will go on into the next generation and the following one at this rate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited November 2023

    I wouldn't put this bet on re Trump simply because too much can happen over the next 12 months.

    However, the 14th Amendment argument to stop Trump has been attacked on a number of angles. One of the major ones, which does not seem to be mentioned, is that it only refers to 'Officers of the United States' and it is clear that Trump, elected as President, would not qualify under the definition of an Officer. There are also numerous arguments over whether the Amendment is actually still legally binding (subsequent legislation seems to have gutted many of its provisions).

    I would say if you want better value, go with outside bets on the Democrat nominee given the uptick in talk about Biden needing to step down given the polling, Democrat Governors seem the best bet and you can get (on Ladbrokes) Whitmer at 100/1, Jared Polis / Roy Cooper at 200/1 which seem good outside bets for a few quid.

    Even if you are correct and the President isn't an officer, which certainly isn't clear (in fact as Hyufd points out, rather the opposite) the fourteenth amendment does not only refer to officers of the United States. It goes far wider than that.

    No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

    Now if you're suggesting that the amendment was designed to mean people can't be elected to Congress, or a presidential elector, or as a State governor, or be a judge but it's fine and dandy for them to be POTUS - well, you're talking nonsense.

    And also, the President holds 'an office.' That's in the oath of office (just to rub that in).

    Saying such things is to try and attack the argument at its strongest. An altogether bigger problem would be that he hasn't actually been convicted yet, so although we all know he's guilty as hell technically he's innocent.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    This is a war which Hamas declared on 7th October. When your enemy intends to extinguish your entire nation you fight to the finish, sadly, which means Hamas relinquishing its war aims, and releasing the hostages.

    As Hamas knows this, the question to ask them is how many more than 10,000 is enough for them? I hope Gazans are asking it, but I have yet to hear a word of disagreement with Hamas from within Gaza.
    Translation: "10 lives for every Israeli!"
    Apparently Hamas numbers 25-30k

    Get there and start counting
    Well, 10,000 is almost 10 times 1,400, so the Israelis are almost there.
    You're quoting terrorist propaganda

    I'll believe the numbers once Hamas is eliminated

    So at least 15k to go
    Terrorist propaganda?

    On 25 October, US President Joe Biden stated he had "no confidence" in the death totals reported by the Gaza Health Ministry.[418][419] In response, Human Rights Watch stated that after three decades working in Gaza and conducting its own investigation, it considers Gaza Health Ministry's totals to be reliable.[419] Matthew Miller made a similar claim to Biden, despite the fact that the US Department of State cites the Gaza Health Ministry's death tolls in its own internal reports.[420]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war
    Even if your terrorist numbers are somewhere near accurate, how many of them were human shields?

    Those go in the Hamas kills column, not the Israeli's
    Israel is the one dropping the bombs
    On their genocidal enemy
    10,000 Palestinian deaths not enough for you?
    No

    We need at least 25-30k, to ensure the elimination of Hamas

    How many genocidal Hamas terrorists do you want to survive this?
    If you genuinely believe that then you are a certifiable lunatic. I have no doubt that Hamas are exaggerating the numbers of dead but given the nature of the conflict and the battleground I also have no doubt that there are far more innocent civilians dying than Hamas terrorists. So what you are actually saying is that you want tens of thousands of innocent civilians to die so you can pretend they have also killed all the terrorists (they won't kill them all of course because things are never that clear cut).

    Whether Israel are actually doing that or not is impossible to say but the fact you are advocating it as a policy makes you utter scum as bad as Hamas.

    The only thing that is certifiably lunatic is to let Hamas survive this.

    Everyone who is fighting for, or supporting Hamas needs to be killed in this war until there is nobody left, or until they surrender unconditionally.

    Not ceasefire, surrender.

    Yes innocents die, and that's tragic, and its also Hamas' fault for using human shields, but you don't fight wars by letting the other side go scot free.
    But killing thousands of innocent people, whatever the moral issues with it, is by far the best way to ensure that Hamas, or some successor, will have no shortage of recruits or softer supporters going forward. The Israeli invasion of Gaza, while completely refusing to address their grievances, is predictably playing into their hands in the medium long term. The festering sore that is the Palestinian issue will go on into the next generation and the following one at this rate.
    So what is your solution? Israel should just live with missile attacks and cross-border raids?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,404

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    This is a war which Hamas declared on 7th October. When your enemy intends to extinguish your entire nation you fight to the finish, sadly, which means Hamas relinquishing its war aims, and releasing the hostages.

    As Hamas knows this, the question to ask them is how many more than 10,000 is enough for them? I hope Gazans are asking it, but I have yet to hear a word of disagreement with Hamas from within Gaza.
    Translation: "10 lives for every Israeli!"
    Apparently Hamas numbers 25-30k

    Get there and start counting
    Well, 10,000 is almost 10 times 1,400, so the Israelis are almost there.
    You're quoting terrorist propaganda

    I'll believe the numbers once Hamas is eliminated

    So at least 15k to go
    Terrorist propaganda?

    On 25 October, US President Joe Biden stated he had "no confidence" in the death totals reported by the Gaza Health Ministry.[418][419] In response, Human Rights Watch stated that after three decades working in Gaza and conducting its own investigation, it considers Gaza Health Ministry's totals to be reliable.[419] Matthew Miller made a similar claim to Biden, despite the fact that the US Department of State cites the Gaza Health Ministry's death tolls in its own internal reports.[420]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war
    Even if your terrorist numbers are somewhere near accurate, how many of them were human shields?

    Those go in the Hamas kills column, not the Israeli's
    Israel is the one dropping the bombs
    On their genocidal enemy
    10,000 Palestinian deaths not enough for you?
    No

    We need at least 25-30k, to ensure the elimination of Hamas

    How many genocidal Hamas terrorists do you want to survive this?
    If you genuinely believe that then you are a certifiable lunatic. I have no doubt that Hamas are exaggerating the numbers of dead but given the nature of the conflict and the battleground I also have no doubt that there are far more innocent civilians dying than Hamas terrorists. So what you are actually saying is that you want tens of thousands of innocent civilians to die so you can pretend they have also killed all the terrorists (they won't kill them all of course because things are never that clear cut).

    Whether Israel are actually doing that or not is impossible to say but the fact you are advocating it as a policy makes you utter scum as bad as Hamas.

    The only thing that is certifiably lunatic is to let Hamas survive this.

    Everyone who is fighting for, or supporting Hamas needs to be killed in this war until there is nobody left, or until they surrender unconditionally.

    Not ceasefire, surrender.

    Yes innocents die, and that's tragic, and its also Hamas' fault for using human shields, but you don't fight wars by letting the other side go scot free.
    But killing thousands of innocent people, whatever the moral issues with it, is by far the best way to ensure that Hamas, or some successor, will have no shortage of recruits or softer supporters going forward. The Israeli invasion of Gaza, while completely refusing to address their grievances, is predictably playing into their hands in the medium long term. The festering sore that is the Palestinian issue will go on into the next generation and the following one at this rate.
    So what is your solution? Israel should just live with missile attacks and cross-border raids?
    Diplomatically it looks like we could be heading for a two state solution with some security for Israel.

    Despite the rhetoric nobody is going full out to protect Hamas, though Iran is always the wild card. Assuming Hamas get degraded the PLO have indicated they will take over running Gaza. Netanhayu and his divide and rule policy will disappear as both have been discredited. Some sort of uncomfortable peace can emerge out of this and then the world goes on.
  • NEW THREAD

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    Oh well, 10,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza inside a month.

    This is a war which Hamas declared on 7th October. When your enemy intends to extinguish your entire nation you fight to the finish, sadly, which means Hamas relinquishing its war aims, and releasing the hostages.

    As Hamas knows this, the question to ask them is how many more than 10,000 is enough for them? I hope Gazans are asking it, but I have yet to hear a word of disagreement with Hamas from within Gaza.
    Translation: "10 lives for every Israeli!"
    Apparently Hamas numbers 25-30k

    Get there and start counting
    Well, 10,000 is almost 10 times 1,400, so the Israelis are almost there.
    You're quoting terrorist propaganda

    I'll believe the numbers once Hamas is eliminated

    So at least 15k to go
    Terrorist propaganda?

    On 25 October, US President Joe Biden stated he had "no confidence" in the death totals reported by the Gaza Health Ministry.[418][419] In response, Human Rights Watch stated that after three decades working in Gaza and conducting its own investigation, it considers Gaza Health Ministry's totals to be reliable.[419] Matthew Miller made a similar claim to Biden, despite the fact that the US Department of State cites the Gaza Health Ministry's death tolls in its own internal reports.[420]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war
    Even if your terrorist numbers are somewhere near accurate, how many of them were human shields?

    Those go in the Hamas kills column, not the Israeli's
    Israel is the one dropping the bombs
    On their genocidal enemy
    10,000 Palestinian deaths not enough for you?
    No

    We need at least 25-30k, to ensure the elimination of Hamas

    How many genocidal Hamas terrorists do you want to survive this?
    If you genuinely believe that then you are a certifiable lunatic. I have no doubt that Hamas are exaggerating the numbers of dead but given the nature of the conflict and the battleground I also have no doubt that there are far more innocent civilians dying than Hamas terrorists. So what you are actually saying is that you want tens of thousands of innocent civilians to die so you can pretend they have also killed all the terrorists (they won't kill them all of course because things are never that clear cut).

    Whether Israel are actually doing that or not is impossible to say but the fact you are advocating it as a policy makes you utter scum as bad as Hamas.

    The only thing that is certifiably lunatic is to let Hamas survive this.

    Everyone who is fighting for, or supporting Hamas needs to be killed in this war until there is nobody left, or until they surrender unconditionally.

    Not ceasefire, surrender.

    Yes innocents die, and that's tragic, and its also Hamas' fault for using human shields, but you don't fight wars by letting the other side go scot free.
    But killing thousands of innocent people, whatever the moral issues with it, is by far the best way to ensure that Hamas, or some successor, will have no shortage of recruits or softer supporters going forward. The Israeli invasion of Gaza, while completely refusing to address their grievances, is predictably playing into their hands in the medium long term. The festering sore that is the Palestinian issue will go on into the next generation and the following one at this rate.
    So what is your solution? Israel should just live with missile attacks and cross-border raids?
    Diplomatically it looks like we could be heading for a two state solution with some security for Israel.

    Despite the rhetoric nobody is going full out to protect Hamas, though Iran is always the wild card. Assuming Hamas get degraded the PLO have indicated they will take over running Gaza. Netanhayu and his divide and rule policy will disappear as both have been discredited. Some sort of uncomfortable peace can emerge out of this and then the world goes on.
    I really hope that's correct. But I am extremely distrustful of Iran in all this...
This discussion has been closed.