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Why Trump not winning WH2024 could be a value bet – politicalbetting.com
Why Trump not winning WH2024 could be a value bet – politicalbetting.com
Currently Donald Trump is the betting favorite to be the winner of the 2024 presidential election. He is marginally ahead in the betting of the incumbent Joe Biden
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But it's clear that a lot of Americans are not happy with their lot and are going to
vote change. Trump represents change of a sort despite being a former president. And he has Bidens record to play with. "Are you feeling better off then you did four years ago?" Not easy to answer, that one.
So, however reluctantly, the Dems need a Plan B. A new candidate who can represent change while wiring into
Trump's record. The debate really ought to be about who that person could be. I really hope serious discussions are going on behind the scenes.
Ideally Biden should be re-elected. But the stakes are too high. Trump is an existential threat.
On the Colorado Question - it'll be ruled against Trump by the District judge, the appeal will be upheld by the State Supreme Court and SCOTUS will overrule the State Supreme Court 6-3. Bookmark it.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/04/new-republican-party-working-class-coalition-00122822
TL:DR there’s a lot of young working-class people, even young black people, who are turning Rebublican, while those with advanced degrees are moving towards the Democrats. Social factors are now as big as economic factors in voting intention, but there are many Americans who are definitely worse off than four years ago.
I think that Trump’s ‘troubles’ help him in the primary, but might work against him in the general election, I really can’t imagine the SC agreeing to keep him off the ballot anywhere, without a conviction not subject to further appeal at the time of the election. There’s considerable media bias against him, which clouds a lot of what we read, and he remains more popular than most of us might think, as is showing up in polling.
An anti-Trump PAC made four attack ads about his legal troubles, but didn’t run them after they backfired with test audiences. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/03/anti-trump-group-ads-backfired-00125087
The whole thing would be so much easier if both parties agreed to a maximum age of 75, and two old men could retire somewhat gracefully to enable a full primary season.
My working assumption for sometime now has been that neither Biden nor Trump will run. There's been a noticeable increase in the public profile of the VP in the past three months. For a long time it was assumed that Harris would jump ship and take over Feinstein's seat. It didn't happen. Although Laphonza Butler has said she will not run for the seat I don't expect that to hold. If Harris was considering a tilt at Feinstein's seat she'd have to make a move pretty soon to allow the Dems time to appoint a replacement as VP.
I'm of the opinion that Biden will withdraw at some stage (for whatever reason) and that Harris will be the nominee. Which leads me on to the GOP.
My money's on Nikki Haley. She is the only credible candidate within the GOP. The sort of candidate who can show some leg to the Trump diehards but appeal to the broader GOP movement and Independents. I say this as someone who lived, studied and worked in South Carolina throughout the 00s and some of the 10s. I say this as someone who has studied the politics of South Carolina and used it as a case study for a Phd. Haley is very adept at raising a finger and working out in which direction the wind is blowing. She's far more astute than most commentators recognise (though this is now changing) and - this is such a low bar - can actually explain in layman's terms how a policy will impact an individual.
I can see it being Harris v Haley. And Haley wins.
There. I've said it. You can all do your thing now and critique/rubbish my position. I can take it.
Dunno where RFKjr fits in either - I would guess he'd take a fair chunk of Trump votes if orange gob doesn't run.
A much bigger risk for Trump is Georgia. His lawyers have now all flipped, and they testimony and electronic evidence could be very damning.
If he loses there, then the Republican Party is in a very difficult position.
I think that this SCOTUS would probably make some spurious argument that either a) Trump's behaviour does not meet the criteria in the 14th Amendment because he was never found guilty by Congress (via impeachment) and that is the only standard that should be considered to define if someone already in office has broken their oath or b) that the voters should be allowed to make their minds up because, even if he does violate the criteria in the 14th Amendment, the democratic will of the voters is more important or c) that it is too close to the election to interfere.
I think a) might have some legal legs, c) is a cop out that people might accept and b) would essentially be SCOTUS opening the door for lots of Civil Rights legislation / amendments mattering as long as there is enough popular will to not have to keep them. I would personally put money on something like a) - but Roberts would not be a part of that opinion; it will instead be written by Scalia or Thomas and have the other 3 conservative votes. The only reason Roberts might sign on to it is so he can make sure Scalia or Thomas don't write the opinion, and can soften whatever reasoning they use.
I also think that Trump could still win even if he isn't on the ballot in many states, because I doubt many of those states will be battleground states / will have that requirement on the books by the time the election comes around if they are under state wide GOP control.
What I think is increasingly likely is Biden won't be the Democratic nominee - that he will drop out due to "health issues" that is really just pressure from the Democratic party looking at his numbers sliding and the main reason being his age and wanting a better candidate. Whether he does this prior to the primaries starting or only does it towards the end for the convention to make the decision, I don't know.
In that event, Haley is more likely than DeSantis, IMO.
I think the Democratic base would be more willing to accept a convention stitch up, especially if Biden dropped out due to "health reasons" after essentially winning the primary. I do not see the convention anointing Harris - my money would be on Newsom or Whitmer (although there are enough stupid people in the DNC that Clinton will be discussed with some level of seriousness, despite that being a godawful idea).
So laying him is tying up money for a while I think, his odds are more likely to come in than go out.
Cricket has standards and this year has seen two incidents that leave an unpleasant taste in the mouth.
RFK could be awkward for everyone, though his right wing backers could easily bail on him anytime. He should enjoy the grift while it lasts.
That wipes out Trump.
He is then dependent upon people funding his campaign. That's a lot of moms and pops putting in ten bucks a time. Is he really going to be getting big business donors?
https://twitter.com/DanAlexander21/status/1721554757817434372
*I presume he opened his mouth.
This accomplishment, which I have mentioned before, from his early career, impresses me:
"In 1982, President Ronald Reagan appointed Hutchinson U.S. attorney for the Western District of Arkansas. At age 31, Hutchinson was the nation's youngest U.S. attorney. He made national headlines after successfully prosecuting The Covenant, The Sword, and The Arm of the Lord (CSA), a white supremacist organization founded by polygamist James Ellison. The CSA forced a three-day armed standoff with local, state, and federal law enforcement. As U.S. attorney, Hutchinson personally negotiated a peaceful conclusion to the standoff."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asa_Hutchinson
And the rest of his long career includes some of the kinds of experience most needed, now.
(For the record: I don't think either Trump or Biden will withdraw, Trump because running gives him his best chance to stay out of jail, Biden because he believes he is the best person for the job.)
The state is asking about a 2021 financial statement. Trump says he thinks it's accurate - he hopes so.
“I was so busy in the White House,” he says, adding his focus was on “China” and “Russia”.
"For the record, you weren't president in 2021 were you?" prosecutor Kevin Wallace asks.
Trump says no.
Firstly, if elected then Trump would probably be able to pardon himself on federal charges (there's an argument you can't self-pardon but Supreme Court would probably enable it). That isn't possible for a state level charge, and indeed the Governor of Georgia can't pardon, and nor can the relevant independent board until after a certain proportion of any sentence has been served.
Secondly, the use of the rather far-reaching RICO (racketeering) laws in Georgia means prosecutors are less reliant on Trump's fingerprints being on key decisions. The point of RICO is to deal with mafia-type outfits where the kingpins leave the dirty work to others - essentially, if you're part of a "criminal enterprise" in a coordination role, you can be nailed even if you personally didn't do the dirty work.
A huge problem for Trump with the guilty pleas so far in Georgia is they cover three different crimes - false statements to public officials (Ellis), fake electors (Cheseboro), and election machines security breach (Powell and Hall). Guilty pleas in one area can be written off as rogue employees, but multiple areas has the hallmarks of "criminal enterprise". He might, of course, be saved by one or two jurors. But, make no bones about it, the Willis case in Georgia is increasingly compelling.
I think Texas is going to be close in 2024.
But apparently he was out of time before the strap broke, in which case its moot surely? He should have got ready in time.
He's utterly mad, driven entirely from narcissism.
So far - Last night I read the introduction and the first two chapters of "How to Prevent the Next Pandemic" -- I am impressed. Enough so that I am willing to recommend it, tentatively.
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/704751/how-to-prevent-the-next-pandemic-by-bill-gates/
(Conspiracy theorists will be disappointed, judging by what I've read so far.)
I agree he probably won't get the huge multinational corporate donors, but there are a fair few moms and pops in the USA who are also very rich entrepreneurs - there are a lot of people we've never heard of who are extremely wealthy off haulage in Texas, slaughtering hogs in Iowa, or whatever it may be.
But would age become an issue? He's 72 and if we're having conversations about the ages of other candidates... At what stage do you start asking "What about this guy? He's too old." A two-term Haley presidency would mean he's 80/81 when he gets his chance. I don't see it unless he follows Cheney's path - "I'll be your VP and I'll step up if necessary, but I don't want to run for it".
A more interesting pick would be Chris Sununu. Capable, respected, well-liked and strong classic GOP principles. Yes. I know that feeling all too well.
America, do you really want the President sharing the nuclear football with Big Bubba in a Georgia jail cell?
Westminster VI (5 November):
Labour 45% (–)
Conservative 28% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 29 October
https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1721573159563153448?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
1) Jumped the shark
2) Likes jumping the shark
3) Wants to jump the shark again, jumping over another shark
Right now, I wonder on the odds for Jefferson Davis being the next US President. I mean, he's a dead traitor to the Republic, but....
I'm rational, and too many Americans it seems are not, and they get a vote and I don't. So I can't trust my judgement here.
For the sake of America, democracy and the world I hope that Trump loses. But he might not and I can't think impartially enough to be betting here.
We all know Texas is big, almost as big as Yorkshire, but easy to forget that within that size is an extraordinary diversity - geographically, culturally, demographically, economically.
Off he went with a Trumpety-Trump:
The state is asking about a 2021 financial statement. Trump says he thinks it's accurate - he hopes so.
“I was so busy in the White House,” he says, adding his focus was on China and Russia.
"For the record, you weren't president in 2021 were you?" prosecutor Kevin Wallace asks.
Trump says no.
Ooops.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-67314495
Given recent developments in the US, a Supreme Court ruling written via Ouija Board would not even raise my left eyebrow by more than an angstrom.
Simples.
Personally, I don’t agree. I’ve already made the analogy that Trump is the polar bear sharing an ice floe with us. Eventually the ice floe of Wokeness will melt - drowning us - but the immediate danger is the bear. So you shoot the bear first then worry about the melting
However I can see how you might rationally arrive at a different conclusion. Especially if you are a white American. Factor that in to any betting
With the way the GOP are going "Like a Banana Republic" could soon rather flatter the US.
He's come out of this fraud trial pretty well so far - his father has been aggressive, his brother defensive, whereas Don Jr actually seems to have managed to turn on the charm (hard to believe though that is based on his record).
A few Con to Lib-Dem switchers looking at how the Labour membership is behaving over Gaza and getting a bit twitchy?
Not sure he pulled it off. There may yet be criminal charges heading his way too.
This evening Casa Cyclefree has reverted to an even older habit: sitting with our animals round a fire on which we cook - braising steak + veg - very slowly,
All we need now is a storyteller telling tales.
The NYT on why it will almost certainly be Biden, again
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-primary-challenger.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
It’s pretty damn convincing. Biden it is - black swans and health issues aside
That poll says No Change to me
Any attempt to remove Trump from the ballot would be striked down by a 5-4 or 6-3 margin...
That’s a very persuasive article. One of the many clinching arguments is that, in the past, challenging a sitting president has always killed political careers. So no one does it
Its gonna be Biden, unless he falls over
That person needs to be prepared to be fired immediately though, so it needs to be someone set to retire at the election anyway.