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Ireland’s gamble – politicalbetting.com

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  • Nigelb said:

    And that's (accurately) called begging the question.
    Indeed, but I've not seen anything to suggest Israel is not sticking to the rules of proportionality (which remember does not mean a 1:1 casualty rate).

    Human shields that Hamas stick in the way that get caught in the crossfire are Hamas's fault. If Hamas builds its infrastructure in civilian areas, then civilians get caught in the crossfire, that too is Hamas's fault.

    Israel is remaining the responsible party trying to be proportional.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,064

    In the last few days Chile, Colombia, Bolivia, Jordan and Bahrain have all recalled their Ambassadors from Israel.
    “Recalling your ambassador” is about as feeble as it gets

    It’s not going to have the Israelis trembling in the Knesset

    “OMFG that guy from La Paz has gone home!”

    “Who? From where?”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,565
    edited November 2023
    Nigelb said:

    No one really knows the numbers of civilian casualties in Ukraine.
    Mariupol, for example.
    Lots more civilians in Gaza will die quicker compared to Ukraine for this reason :

    Pop densities
    8000/sq km Gaza, 63/sq km Ukraine.

    Regardless of Israeli or Palestinian intent, the Hamas infrastructure is obviously going to be closer to civilians than Ukraine's where there's far more room.
  • Treasury to pay Bank of England £170bn to cover QE losses

    The Bank of England has warned of losses from the sale of government bonds as it unwinds its quantitative easing programme because rising interest rates have pushed down the value of the debt

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/treasury-to-pay-bank-of-england-170bn-to-cover-qe-losses-9n83vbkrz (£££)

  • Indeed, but I've not seen anything to suggest Israel is not sticking to the rules of proportionality (which remember does not mean a 1:1 casualty rate).

    Human shields that Hamas stick in the way that get caught in the crossfire are Hamas's fault. If Hamas builds its infrastructure in civilian areas, then civilians get caught in the crossfire, that too is Hamas's fault.

    Israel is remaining the responsible party trying to be proportional.
    "10 lives for every Israeli!" :lol:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,303
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    It’s amazing how often - almost without fail - Arab/muslim nations abandon the Palestinians to their fate, despite much angry rhetoric and “days of rage” blah blah blah

    If I was a poor Gazan cowering in some bombed-out refugee “camp” I’d hate Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria - and Hezbollah - almost as much as I’d hate Israel

    Surely little chance that you’d be cowering, out on the streets trying to take out a Merkava with a Molly cocktail, no?
  • Nigelb said:

    Why were you running ?
    "When you've got to go, you've got to go!"
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783

    Indeed, but I've not seen anything to suggest Israel is not sticking to the rules of proportionality (which remember does not mean a 1:1 casualty rate).
    Has an official rate of exchange between Israeli lives and Palestinian lives been published yet? I keep wondering what it is.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,647

    "...I once ran into Jarvis Cocker in the gents toilet at Watford Gap services. Somehow it felt like the right kind of place for that to happen..."

    Nah, the lyrics are actually "She came from Greece she had a thirst for knowledge. She studied sculpture at Saint Martin's College." A lot of people get it wrong... :)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,064

    Surely little chance that you’d be cowering, out on the streets trying to take out a Merkava with a Molly cocktail?
    We’re still waiting for you and @malcolmg to march on Westminster so as to overthrow your “colonial overlords”
  • Indeed, but I've not seen anything to suggest Israel is not sticking to the rules of proportionality (which remember does not mean a 1:1 casualty rate).

    Human shields that Hamas stick in the way that get caught in the crossfire are Hamas's fault. If Hamas builds its infrastructure in civilian areas, then civilians get caught in the crossfire, that too is Hamas's fault.

    Israel is remaining the responsible party trying to be proportional.
    I'm sorry but bombing a refugee camp, even if there were Hamas fighters there (unproven) is not proportional and it's doubtful if it's legal. It's certainly bloody stupid when images from the attack will be all over the world's media within minutes.
  • Indeed, but I've not seen anything to suggest Israel is not sticking to the rules of proportionality (which remember does not mean a 1:1 casualty rate).

    Human shields that Hamas stick in the way that get caught in the crossfire are Hamas's fault. If Hamas builds its infrastructure in civilian areas, then civilians get caught in the crossfire, that too is Hamas's fault.

    Israel is remaining the responsible party trying to be proportional.
    In the real world, Hamas doesn't really have a choice. Their forces are vastly technically inferior to those of Israel, so the only way they can put up any sort of resistance is by mixing with civilians. Otherwise they would simply be annihilated.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,075
    Both Musk and Bezos have said they were inspired by Robert Heinlein's "The Man Who Sold the Moon".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Sold_the_Moon

    There are worse sources of inspiration.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,083
    Definition of madness: developing technologies that will make life worse for most people.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,542
    eek said:

    April to June in the North East it went from 3.5% to 5.2%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/ycnc/lms
    Levelling Up
  • Problem for the Palestinians is they have crapped in their nest everywhere theyve been.

    Their standard MO has been to move to Israel's neighbours set up their own private armies, then start to lord it over the locals and kick off a civil war. Nobody really wants that. Then chuck in that they feel the arab world owes them and they wont let them forget it and its nothing but problems.

    On the other hand I was surprised by Chile cutting off relations with Israel. Turns out Chile has one of the largest palestinian populations outside Palestine. Mostly Christians from about a century ago,
    Palestinians are the only people world-wide who have inherited refugee status, even after many decades. Presumably that has something to do with whether the host states want to accept them and the descendants permanently.

    As an aside, that anomaly of inherited status is one of the barriers to a wider settlement.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,064
    With Hezbollah bottling it, we are left with the mystery of why Hamas did October 7

    The result was bound to be an overwhelming Israel strike back. Levelling Gaza and destroying Hamas

    This would’ve made sense if Hamas had some grander plan to involve the wider Middle East. But if that was gonna happen it would have happened by now. And Hezbollah would have been first

    So what now? Tens of thousands will die and Gaza will be razed and Hamas will gain…. What?

    Was it all some terrible miscalculation? Was it a military raid that got out of hand?
  • Leon said:

    With Hezbollah bottling it, we are left with the mystery of why Hamas did October 7

    The result was bound to be an overwhelming Israel strike back. Levelling Gaza and destroying Hamas

    This would’ve made sense if Hamas had some grander plan to involve the wider Middle East. But if that was gonna happen it would have happened by now. And Hezbollah would have been first

    So what now? Tens of thousands will die and Gaza will be razed and Hamas will gain…. What?

    Was it all some terrible miscalculation? Was it a military raid that got out of hand?

    They got egged on into by the bigger boys?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,655
    Leon said:

    With Hezbollah bottling it, we are left with the mystery of why Hamas did October 7

    The result was bound to be an overwhelming Israel strike back. Levelling Gaza and destroying Hamas

    This would’ve made sense if Hamas had some grander plan to involve the wider Middle East. But if that was gonna happen it would have happened by now. And Hezbollah would have been first

    So what now? Tens of thousands will die and Gaza will be razed and Hamas will gain…. What?

    Was it all some terrible miscalculation? Was it a military raid that got out of hand?

    Their leadership all live in Qatar and wanted something decent on the Telly ?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,615

    In the real world, Hamas doesn't really have a choice. Their forces are vastly technically inferior to those of Israel, so the only way they can put up any sort of resistance is by mixing with civilians. Otherwise they would simply be annihilated.
    That’s bullshit

    You can fight a guerilla war / insurgency without putting arms caches in hospitals

    Hamas are cynically using civilians to take advantage of western media’s credulousness
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,664
    Leon said:

    “Recalling your ambassador” is about as feeble as it gets

    It’s not going to have the Israelis trembling in the Knesset

    “OMFG that guy from La Paz has gone home!”

    “Who? From where?”
    Lot of big hitters there, bet they are raging
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,543

    Tebay
    Or not Tebay, that is the question.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,816

    Their leadership all live in Qatar and wanted something decent on the Telly ?
    None of them are willing to die without first visiting the Tebay service station.
  • That’s bullshit

    You can fight a guerilla war / insurgency without putting arms caches in hospitals

    Hamas are cynically using civilians to take advantage of western media’s credulousness
    Given the high population density of Gaza and the close surveillance of Israel, it would be virtually impossible to separate the infrastructure for a guerrilla war from the civilian infrastructure and keep it hidden.
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 779
    edited November 2023

    Leads 22, 20, 21.
    Looking at the YouGov underlying data for 2019 voters and comparing with their 5 January poll the major movement for Conservative 2019 voters is an increase in the Reform vote (5%) with fewer Conservatives staying put. Other non conservatives (including Labour, LibDems, don't know, not voting etc.) are broadly the same.

    A similar swing from Labout 2019 voters to Green.

    For the LibDem 2019, there is a shift from Labour voting (in Jan 2023) to LibDem (now) of about 10%.
  • rcs1000 said:

    None of them are willing to die without first visiting the Tebay service station.
    "I would liked to have seen Montana Tebay..."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,114
    Chris said:

    Has an official rate of exchange between Israeli lives and Palestinian lives been published yet? I keep wondering what it is.
    20 to 1 is the average exchange rate in recent years.
  • Leon said:

    With Hezbollah bottling it, we are left with the mystery of why Hamas did October 7

    Simples. Because Israel LET them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,816
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,478

    Palestinians are the only people world-wide who have inherited refugee status, even after many decades. Presumably that has something to do with whether the host states want to accept them and the descendants permanently.

    As an aside, that anomaly of inherited status is one of the barriers to a wider settlement.
    However only a minority of Palestinians have recognised refugee status, most do not. I know this from my involvement with a medical charity providing services to West Bank and Gaza, as there were funding for treatments of recognised refugees, while most had to self fund, or rely on charities.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,664
    rcs1000 said:

    None of them are willing to die without first visiting the Tebay service station.
    Not surprised they want one of those steak pies before they go
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,114
    Leon said:

    With Hezbollah bottling it, we are left with the mystery of why Hamas did October 7

    The result was bound to be an overwhelming Israel strike back. Levelling Gaza and destroying Hamas

    This would’ve made sense if Hamas had some grander plan to involve the wider Middle East. But if that was gonna happen it would have happened by now. And Hezbollah would have been first

    So what now? Tens of thousands will die and Gaza will be razed and Hamas will gain…. What?

    Was it all some terrible miscalculation? Was it a military raid that got out of hand?

    Perhaps the psychopathic orgy of violence was its own reward. Perhaps there was no cold-eyed gaming out of the aftermath. Similarly Israel now. To what extent are they acting rationally to achieve a 'war aim' as opposed to wreaking vengeance? I think it's mainly the latter.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,664
    Leon said:



    We’re still waiting for you and @malcolmg to march on Westminster so as to overthrow your “colonial overlords”
    Won't catch me in that dump @Leon
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,191
    edited November 2023
    Humza Yousaf's family are out. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67307843

    For all my political issues with him and his party I am genuinely happy for him and his wife.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,953
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    With Hezbollah bottling it, we are left with the mystery of why Hamas did October 7

    The result was bound to be an overwhelming Israel strike back. Levelling Gaza and destroying Hamas

    This would’ve made sense if Hamas had some grander plan to involve the wider Middle East. But if that was gonna happen it would have happened by now. And Hezbollah would have been first

    So what now? Tens of thousands will die and Gaza will be razed and Hamas will gain…. What?

    Was it all some terrible miscalculation? Was it a military raid that got out of hand?

    Various possibilities. I wouldn't overlook the Iran-Russia axis though.

    What Russia needs most right now is to stop Western, and particularly American aid to Ukraine. Is it a coincidence that the raid in Israel came only days after the new US House Speaker was elected - someone who's previously been anti-Ukraine aid (but pro-Israel)? In the inability of engaging directly in the US political debate, what better than providing a distraction with something that hits at American (and Republican) emotions?

    What does Iran get out of that? Well, bashing Israel for one, obviously; also more sales of military kit to Russia. But perhaps that explains why Hezbollah *haven't* joined the fight, despite the fact that Iran has even more influence there than over Hamas - they don't want an Israeli (or American) military response while still building their nuclear capacity. They can plausibly deny being behind it with a "see, if it was us then Hezbollah would have been involved too". Iran would also like to stop the rapprochment between Israel and Saudi (and other Arab states), and a Gaza-Israel war is handy to that end too (though not as effective so far as might have been anticipated).

    What's in it for Hamas? Killing Jews. They're a genocidal terrorist organisation who are happy to sacrifice their people in pursuit of ethnic cleansing.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,888

    Palestinians are the only people world-wide who have inherited refugee status, even after many decades. Presumably that has something to do with whether the host states want to accept them and the descendants permanently.

    As an aside, that anomaly of inherited status is one of the barriers to a wider settlement.
    There is debate around the contention that the Palestinians are the only people with inherited refugee status. That position has been advanced by pro-Israeli sources. Pro-Palestinian sources point to other non-Palestinian examples. https://www.unhcr.org/us/media/handbook-procedures-and-criteria-determining-refugee-status-under-1951-convention-and-1967 states, “If the head of a family meets the criteria of the definition his dependents are normally granted refugee status according to the principle of family unity.” That supports inherited refugee status applying broadly.

    What is clear is that the scale of inherited refugee status among Palestinians is unlike other examples. Palestinian refugees have been used by Palestinian authorities and by their host countries as pawns, to keep the pressure up on Israel.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,542
    Up
    rcs1000 said:
    Lovely stuff. Can’t fault the sentiment.

    Bono has a great collection of hatchbacks.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,542
    malcolmg said:

    Not surprised they want one of those steak pies before they go
    Steak pies, like bacon and black pudding, are why I could never go,vegan or veggie.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,191
    Leon said:

    With Hezbollah bottling it, we are left with the mystery of why Hamas did October 7

    The result was bound to be an overwhelming Israel strike back. Levelling Gaza and destroying Hamas

    This would’ve made sense if Hamas had some grander plan to involve the wider Middle East. But if that was gonna happen it would have happened by now. And Hezbollah would have been first

    So what now? Tens of thousands will die and Gaza will be razed and Hamas will gain…. What?

    Was it all some terrible miscalculation? Was it a military raid that got out of hand?

    I suspect that it was delusion and a desperate desire for revenge. They probably believed that the Arab world simply had to have their example to rise up and destroy Israel once and for all.
  • On Keir’s big planning speech…

    I find myself agreeing with pretty much all he said (though I find it utterly fascinating to hear a Labour leader decry planning applications being refused because of the environmental impact). It is absolutely true the planning system is too labyrinthine, complex and bureaucratic.

    BUT, and there is a but here:

    Is Starmer ready for the absolute can of worms he’ll open if he tries to enact meaningful reform in this area? Not only will he have the NIMBYs up in arms (and that pressure will be intense) but has anyone had any thought about how removing planning safeguards might actually lead to a Human Rights Act challenge?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,064
    DavidL said:

    I suspect that it was delusion and a desperate desire for revenge. They probably believed that the Arab world simply had to have their example to rise up and destroy Israel once and for all.
    Yes possibly. It may go down as one of the worst miscalculations in the Middle East since the Iraq war, from the perspective of Hamas

    Iran and Russia however can maybe point to a roiled, distracted and divided west as a definite benefit
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,838
    rcs1000 said:
    My sister and I refer to him as 'Bonio', after the dog biscuit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,191
    Why? I seem to recall that Hippos are the most dangerous animals in Africa.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,836

    They seem to care for them as much as they do the Uyghurs. Don't suppose anyone's planning a mass demo in London over their plight.
    The Palestinians have shown they’re upset at how they are treated by the other nations in the region repeatedly.

    In part, this reaction has made them less welcome in those nations, in a vicious circle.
  • Leads 22, 20, 21.
    Massive leads can be blown - see SLab 2011 or Con 2017 - but the consistency and scale of this polling (backed up by by-election results) does imply very strongly that Labour is on for a bloody big majority.
  • NEW THREAD

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,655

    On Keir’s big planning speech…

    I find myself agreeing with pretty much all he said (though I find it utterly fascinating to hear a Labour leader decry planning applications being refused because of the environmental impact). It is absolutely true the planning system is too labyrinthine, complex and bureaucratic.

    BUT, and there is a but here:

    Is Starmer ready for the absolute can of worms he’ll open if he tries to enact meaningful reform in this area? Not only will he have the NIMBYs up in arms (and that pressure will be intense) but has anyone had any thought about how removing planning safeguards might actually lead to a Human Rights Act challenge?

    My thoughts exactly. Is he ready to take on what must be a large element of his natural supporters. Those PBers laughing at Sunak tarmaccing over southern England havent realised Starmer wants to do it too.

    Likewise it is easy to announce the concept of housing and infrastructure. But where is he going to put them ? If he knows he will be asked to declare it cue the Nimbys and if he doesnt he wont be doing much in his term of office as it will take years to get stuff up and moving.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,049
    edited November 2023

    There is debate around the contention that the Palestinians are the only people with inherited refugee status. That position has been advanced by pro-Israeli sources. Pro-Palestinian sources point to other non-Palestinian examples. https://www.unhcr.org/us/media/handbook-procedures-and-criteria-determining-refugee-status-under-1951-convention-and-1967 states, “If the head of a family meets the criteria of the definition his dependents are normally granted refugee status according to the principle of family unity.” That supports inherited refugee status applying broadly.

    What is clear is that the scale of inherited refugee status among Palestinians is unlike other examples. Palestinian refugees have been used by Palestinian authorities and by their host countries as pawns, to keep the pressure up on Israel.
    I think the point is that most refugees, if it doesn't become safe for them to return within a few years, integrate into their country of refuge and subsequent generations don't think of themselves as refugees.

    My grandma was a refugee from pre-War Vienna and, while it's an important part of the family history, none of her descendants identify as refugees. We all think of ourselves as British/English, though we might pay a bit more attention when Austria play Hungary in the football. (As an aside, the first Austria vs Hungary matches were before WWI, showing that the setup in Britain of having multiple national teams within one country hasn't always been as anomalous as it now looks)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,266

    My thoughts exactly. Is he ready to take on what must be a large element of his natural supporters. Those PBers laughing at Sunak tarmaccing over southern England havent realised Starmer wants to do it too.

    Likewise it is easy to announce the concept of housing and infrastructure. But where is he going to put them ? If he knows he will be asked to declare it cue the Nimbys and if he doesnt he wont be doing much in his term of office as it will take years to get stuff up and moving.
    I think he'll evolve it in teh short term - there are plenty of not very controversial things to do.
  • timpletimple Posts: 123
    Leon said:

    Yes possibly. It may go down as one of the worst miscalculations in the Middle East since the Iraq war, from the perspective of Hamas

    Iran and Russia however can maybe point to a roiled, distracted and divided west as a definite benefit
    Desperate people do desperate things. Why they are desperate and whose fault it is they are desperate is the raging global debate.
This discussion has been closed.