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Ireland’s gamble – politicalbetting.com
Ireland’s gamble – politicalbetting.com
While the UK gets itself in a jumble on Palestine or Israel our next door neighbour has no such qualms. Ireland is quite clearly fighting Palestine’s corner. Sinn Fein backing the Palestinians is no surprise, but the main parts of the Irish establishment have fallen into line too. Leo Varadkar has gone off script several times and has been arguing against the mainstream EU position much to the annoyance of Germany. The Irish President Michael D Higgins got into a spat with the Israeli ambassador which Simon Coveney the foreign minister had to calm down.
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Edit: and first.
Re yesterday's thread, which I refrained from posting on, I do think the media including pb.com are desperate to find anything which makes the next General Election appear less of a slam dunk than it currently appears.
I fear you are chasing shadows. These missing millions of wannabe tory voters are as much a fantasy as La Buse's treasure.
If they ever really existed they weren't true Conservative voters. They were 'Get Brexit Done' voters. That era has passed, along with their memories. They will not come back.
The national opinion polls are correct. Labour are on course for a significant win.
But fantasise away, if it keeps you occupied.
xx
Good header @Alanbrooke Ireland does indeed seem to have come to a settled view on this.
Ironically a generation or two ago Ireland might have seen in Israel parallels with its own past as a small country fighting to win independence against larger neighbours. That has changed hugely.
No one wants to watch a one horse race.
Probably facing several decades in jail. What a dramatic fall from grace.
The British withdrawal from Empire was mostly voluntary, albeit with a degree of insurrection encouraging it. The exceptions were three places where we were forced out by military action: the USA, Ireland and Palestine.
I really do think, for all his many faults, Boris Johnson reached parts that no other tory could have in an exceptional election with an exceptional remit against an exceptionally unelectable opposition leader.
It was a one-off. That time has gone.
p.s. for those posting about horses, neither showjumping nor dressage competitions are one-horse races. But I find pedantry tiresome so I'll cease right there
It almost doesn't matter whether Biden is senile or whether the Dems are also open to a bit of corruption and gerrymandering - there's a difference between a bit of it and tear down the republic.
If America elects Trump, there won't be another free election.
An Irish judge once gave a man 247 years in jail.
Then he turned to the convict and said, 'Don't worry boy, you won't serve all of that. You can get up to one-third off for good conduct.'
(This is usually told as a traditional Irish joke of a stupid judge. I tend to think of it as a judge mischievously piling on the agony towards somebody he'd taken a dislike to.)
It doesn’t of course excuse the bullying behaviour Israel has exhibited for years towards Palestinian civilians on the West Bank but it does explain the deep suspicion of diplomacy and promises when under attack.
The problem is not the paucity of majorities - that's in many ways a good thing - the problem is the long periods in government each party is getting.
*I know people say Corbyn did but they're wrong. He got 39.99%.
That’s where Netenyahuism gets its chance from - “Let’s play by the rules of those who want to kill us.”
The basic idea isn’t the problem. It’s just that everyone involved is high on their own supply or a criminal. Or both.
2019 wasn't (grumpy old Jez)
2017 probably wasn't really (magic Grandpa Jez)
2015 perhaps?
2010 wasn't (Labour were obviously exhausted)
2005 wasn't (Howard was explicitly a placeholder)
2001 wasn't (Conservatives weren't ready)
1997 wasn't (Conservatives were obviously exhausted)
1992 was, just about
1987 wasn't (Kinnock was reforming, but nowhere near enough)
1983 wasn't
It shouldn't be asking to much for our big parties to both be on the reservation simultaneously.
Whilst, of course, ignoring all the other myriad peoples in similar states. Because Jews are Different (tm)...
Why is this making Trump more popular? Because roughly half of the population *wanted the coup to work*. It doesn't matter that they lost by 7m votes, they are right and indeed righteous, the other side are practically satanic.
As @rottenborough said - wake up. Half of America has had enough of democracy. Of tolerance. Of women's rights. When it is strange swarthy countries scrapping democracy and oppressing women the Americans usually object.
What will we do as Gilead is formed in front of our eyes?
For the second, I'm not convinced by your view. I got burned by Cameron in 2010 who had similar leads until about six months before the election. Indeed, even in 1997 Labour's eventual margin of victory in the popular vote - 13 points - was still far narrower than any gap in an opinion poll since 1992. Partly that may be explained by tactical voting, but since the Liberal Democrat share was down on 1992 that's not a terribly convincing explanation. In 1964 the polls narrowed substantially at the last minute and what had seemed an easy Labour win was a very narrow one.
There are many complex factors at play here. Starmer if he is no Corbyn is also no Blair. (Paradoxically if he were he'd probably be doing worse, given how much suspicion we hold Blair-style politicians in now.) He is also a long, long way behind. He would need a swing on the scale of 1997 to win a majority of one. Not impossible, but not easy either.
The only times in the age of universal suffrage a government with a majority as large as this one has conceded a double-digit overall majority to the opposition are 1945 and 1970, which shows how unusual it is.
Put it this way, I think people betting on large Labour majorities based on opinion polling are taking a risk that isn't justified by precedent. There is a chance this could be different. My judgement, which could easily be wrong, is that polls at this stage reflect people's emotional reaction to the government as much as how they are likely to vote. And right now, people are fed up with the government's constant bungling, dithering and stupidity so are not keen on the thought of voting for it.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Eve-Europe-before-Second-World/dp/1846681901?ref=d6k_applink_bb_dls&dplnkId=c971300a-f2ae-402e-9661-7c5edcf54fb9
Zionism began in the late nineteenth century, so a long time before WW2 and was motivated not just by the very real threats of European anti-semitism, but also the fear of cultural extinction via assimilation into secular European culture.
I'd add 1979 to that list, and 1964 (although the result was in the end quite close) and 1966, as well as 1951.
That leaves, since World War Two, 1950, 1970, 1974 (twice) as genuinely competitive elections.
Remember how May had to pimp the queen out and offer a state visit in order to be the first foreign visitor at Mar-a-Lago North? It'll be just like that all over again.
When Trump is re-elected or otherwise manages to take power in 2025 then Starmer will tongue his hole just like all other Western leaders will.
And perhaps they've just grown accustomed to seeing little downside from the expression of opinions previously, as no one was taking much notice ?
There's also this. Over the next few weeks their stance might not be quite so contrary.
US warns Israel amid Gaza carnage it doesn’t have long before support erodes
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/02/politics/biden-administration-warning-israel-gaza-civilians/index.html
..President Joe Biden and his top advisers are warning Israel with growing force that it will become increasingly difficult for it to pursue its military goals in Gaza as global outcry intensifies about the scale of humanitarian suffering there.
Biden, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken – who departed Thursday for Israel with a message on protecting civilian lives – have all explicitly pressed the case in recent private conversations with the Israelis, telling them that eroding support will have dire strategic consequences for Israel Defense Forces operations against Hamas...
But the multiple revelations about the behaviour of the Catholic Church in cahoots with the political Establishment have played as great a role, if not more, I would contend.
Ironically, Palestinians are in a not entirely dissimilar position.
I had lunch with a pretty hard headed advertising chum yesterday who I have never heard express a coherent political view on anything being furious about the Israeli's actions. He was litterally livid. He couldn't stand the thought of Israel bombing children whether or not they were shielding Hamas operatives or anyone else. It really hurt him.
Whatever we may feel about who started what, this is a film where the little guy tweeked the big guys nose and he's getting severely battered for it. Whether he had it coming is neither here nor there. We are all watching a dumb animal being mercilessly beaten and few can watch it dispassionately. It's hurting us individually and we're rooting for the animal.
It's for that reason that there will be a million green and red flags next week-end. Not that they don't like Jews or Israelis.
Trump's second term will mean more of what we put up with from 2016-2020. Leaders will grit their teeth and try to keep the XL Bully in the room from taking a dislike to them.
Also the idea that this Government will find and provide reasons in the next 9-12 months to encourage voters to give them 4-5 year more power is insane - it's clear they are already bereft of ideas, aren't even bothered to do things that are supposedly in the pipeline (protection for renters, protection for workers) is insane. It's not like there is any actual money for tax cuts and one reason the Tories regained some votes in 1997 was because there was a possibility of tax cuts due to the improving economy.
Everything I'm seeing is tell me that next years economy is going to make this years look good.
As for your last two sentences, that may be true of some of the marchers, but if you think it's true of all them you're even stupider than we all thought.
In Britain we scoff at the idea of a coup because you'd have to take on the powers that be. But in America some of the powers that be *are* the Trumpist coup.
It’s not about being evil or whatever. Anymore than not having religious tolerance is an inate moral failing.
The ideas of tolerance, anti-racism, gay rights etc are relatively new. Hell, before 1989, it was a common trope, for some, that social liberal democracy was a colonialist idea and that non-European countries had cultures that weren’t suited to it. Argued by actual MPs on U.K. television, no less.
Progress doesn’t just happen by itself.
So finding 19th cent anti-semitism of the style of the Russian Empire isn’t a surprise. What has happened that it should be surprising? Given that in a number of countries it is “preached by the state” to provide an enemy to unite the people against, even less so
As a CON supporter (although I am far from happy with the performance of the current government), I expect a LAB majority of between 10 and 50 but it is still possible they may fall short.
There are many examples around the world that have fallen short of full scale civil war or complete separation, or have reached quasi-stability after a civil war. Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, the two communities of NI, the Taliban in Northern Pakistan, the Mafia lands of the Mezzogiorno.
I’m rooting for all individual civilians who have found them selves in harms way.
It is neutral and faces no threat; its people have gone all over the world, and are found everywhere where western good works are done for the poor and oppressed, and they do it fairly humbly.
There are aspects of this which give Ireland easy and cosy wins, because it has no real enemies, is small and is in the cosy part of the world. They can be hopelessly unrealistic.
But there are good things too about its unique voice and we should cherish it.
The first part obvs, I know negative consequences for the UK concerns you a great deal.
Good job the UK isn’t a vital part of putting the the frighteners on Iran, HMS QE (which I note the RN calls the Nation’s flagship) seems to spend almost as much time in port as her sister ship which is permanently moored there as source of spare parts.
Only one person born after the end of World War I has led Labour to a general election victory.
There is no reason to think that Sunaks final year will be any better than last year, and it may well be worse as he grasps at Culture War straws.
Graft.
Withdrawal from NATO. (I actually think this woud be good for the US and good for Europe but it seems to make a certain stripe of tory piss their knickers.)
Shitposting on socials.
Repressive social conservatism for the masses, decadent hedonism for the inner circle.
Impeachment of Biden. (This will be funny, TBF)
Isolationism.
Protectionism.
Massive transfer of wealth to the capital owning class.
Engineering some way to get a third term.
https://apnews.com/article/north-carolina-election-voter-5a29a18f551b28f24ed9bd25263e222b
North Carolina laws requiring citizens to reside in the state and within a precinct at least 30 days before an election date to be eligible to vote are unlawful and must be blocked, a union-affiliated retiree group said in a federal lawsuit this week.
Lawyers for the North Carolina Alliance for Retired Americans write that the 30-day residency mandate violates the U.S. Constitution and Voting Rights Act and totally denies newcomers to the state the right to vote for no compelling reason. People who currently comply with that residency window can participate in same-day registration at early voting sites up to the Saturday before the election.
The lawsuit, if successful, could allow more people to cast ballots in the 2024 elections in the ninth-largest state, which has over 7 million registered voters and is often marked by very close results in races for president and other statewide offices. Lawyers who helped file the lawsuit on Monday on behalf of the alliance against State Board of Elections members and its executive director have represented Democratic interests previously...
It wouldn't surprise me to see an increase in brown nosing of China (where Blair is being sent as vanguard at the moment)
Adams left Washington abruptly. A widening corruption scandal greeted him in NYC.
A raid at the home of Adams’ lead fundraiser adds to a growing snowball of law enforcement actions targeting figures in and around his administration.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/02/adams-nyc-raid-00125172
I’m rooting for all individual civilians who have found them selves in harms way.
That’s the real issue, surely. Whether they are Israeli or Palestinian.
Ramaswamy drops an 8-figure ad buy to close out the primary
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/02/ramaswamy-ad-buy-primary-00124984
And (to blow your mind further) only two of those have been born since the 1884 Reform Act.
Not that I want a Trump win, and I would be very distrurbed by the implications internationally. But this end of democracy stuff does get overplayed somewhat.
(Though it won't be impeachment of Biden as they won't have the votes; it will be the Trump's Justice Dept.)
But politicians tend to assume everything carries on as before, until reality takes them by surprise.
I fear that was the Beer Hall Putsch and we know what followed next.
Here's the ICM series from 1996;
Conservative share spread pretty well around the final answer.
Labour share on the high side, but Lab to LD swing during the campaign didn't really help the Conservatives much.
In the mid 90s, most pollsters still weren't doing Shy Tory adjustments, which led to a lot of apparent swingback and a significant polling fail. If the polls are wrong this time, it will be for something we haven't anticipated.
Of course having a working majority is not a sufficient condition for decent government - see Brown or Truss. But it is necessary.
That a party gets a long period in government is good - it must be pleasing at least tens of millions of people, or at any rate be less bad than the alternative.
https://www.navylookout.com/hms-prince-of-wales-crosses-the-atlantic-and-begins-developmental-flying-trials/
Ok, everyone ignores the PB pronouncers, but you get my drift.
Even if I believe you, which I'm not sure I do given your record in other matters.
The results are...out of consideration for OGH, won't be posting them.
Rape of women so violent their pelvises were broken. Murder of babies in their cots. Cutting off limbs. Beheading with a shovel. Slicing off women's breasts. Gouging out mens eyes. Gunning down teenagers and old people. Disembowelling a pregnant woman. Burning people alive.
This is your idea of tweaking someone's nose is it?
I am rooting for those who suffered this, their families, their friends and those who are dying now because of the actions of those who did this.
And I despise those who are making people here in this country, Jews living here, feel unsafe and unwanted. They include my own cousin, who has an Irish father, and a son in primary school where they have had to pay for extra security because of threats from the sorts of people who wave Palestinian flags, celebrate massacres and call them inspiring. And then there are people like you who stand by and, as you've made clear on this forum, dismiss their concerns.
#fingeronthepulse
https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/features/queen-elizabeth-carriers