@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
Also weirdly pro-Palestinian to the point of being - allegedly - pro-Hamas attacks
What is this eerie, ugly, narcissistic Celtic indlugence of Hamas? Ireland is rank with it
Look at this superb quote. The journalist must have been aware as he wrote this
"According to four sources close to the company, Hunter Biden regularly attended Burisma’s twice annual board meetings – all of which were held outside of Ukraine"
Having somebody on the board who can bring the "good time" doesn't come cheap....
Hunter is a mess, but it does make me think.
Of course Joe worries and supports his wayward son. Perhaps some tough love earlier in life would have made a difference, but perhaps not. Addicts are like that.
A father who lost one son, and tries to protect the other from himself is not a bad person, just a human being.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Get well soon G
Thanks Malc
My wife's covid has been worse than her two other previous experiences and the irony is we both had our 7th covid vaccine plus flu just 2 weeks before
My DVT is quite extensive and they have discovered other issues which need managing but I do have an excellent dedicated hospital team plus medical centre
And we are so grateful for all our blessings, not least when you see what is going on in the middle east
Look at this superb quote. The journalist must have been aware as he wrote this
"According to four sources close to the company, Hunter Biden regularly attended Burisma’s twice annual board meetings – all of which were held outside of Ukraine"
Having somebody on the board who can bring the "good time" doesn't come cheap....
Hunter is a mess, but it does make me think.
Of course Joe worries and supports his wayward son. Perhaps some tough love earlier in life would have made a difference, but perhaps not. Addicts are like that.
A father who lost one son, and tries to protect the other from himself is not a bad person, just a human being.
And yet, somehow, I feel you would not extend such sympathy to Donald Trump
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Get well soon G
Thanks Malc
My wife's covid has been worse than her two other previous experiences and the irony is we both had our 7th covid vaccine plus flu just 2 weeks before
My DVT is quite extensive and they have discovered other issues which need managing but I do have an excellent dedicated hospital team plus medical centre
And we are so grateful for all our blessings, not least when you see what is going on in the middle east
Sorry to hear. The latest Covid really seems to flatten people, even if no pneumonia like the original.
You will be interested to know that the weekend before my DVT I was not feeling great and rested in bed and woke on the Monday with the DVT. I later tested for covid which no doubt my wife caught but apparently DVT related to covid is recognised medically
Not to be morbid, but what is the electoral 'turnover' over a full five year term due to the passage of time?
Based on life expectancy of 80, a crude approximation is around 8%.
That means the electorate is not the same as back then. And significant swings can happen due to the passage of time unless the Tories are convincing people to vote for them more as they get older.
I'm not convinced that has been the case for older millennials and Gen X.
The skew of voting by age at the last election, which was at records highs, means the Tories need to win over significant numbers of non-Tories to stand still.
I predict a comfortable Labour majority.
Life expectancy at birth is not the same age as life expectancy aged 80, so i think your sums are wrong.
Having said that, SE class AB outlive CDE and the age tilt in voting at the last GE was so heavy that even a small reverse is a major threat to the Tories.
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
With environmentalism seemingly an optional extra.
I think Dr Palmer has talked about Green parties in Europe where being a raging commie or progressive crusader is not a requirement (he may have phrased it slightly differently to that).
I think an environmentally focused party that didn't add a whole bunch of trendy ephemera or radical social or economic ideasnwould be quite interesting personally. Maybe all those rural greens elected at the locals might start changing them.
I've been a non-exec. The going rate, even for the largest of companies, is not $1m/year.
But with all due respect, despite the great esteem owed your Dad, he has never been a US Senator, Vice President of the USA, and now the most powerful man on earth, even if PB is quite influential
I imagine the Biden name brings a significant premium, $1m a year seems quite reasonable in that respect
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Get well soon G
Thanks Malc
My wife's covid has been worse than her two other previous experiences and the irony is we both had our 7th covid vaccine plus flu just 2 weeks before
My DVT is quite extensive and they have discovered other issues which need managing but I do have an excellent dedicated hospital team plus medical centre
And we are so grateful for all our blessings, not least when you see what is going on in the middle east
I hope you and your wife get well soon. DVT is nasty. I've had it twice. Fingers crossed for you both.
If we're going to take one poll and build an entire hypothesis, fine, but there are other pollsters and other evidence to consider unless you want to build the entire re-election hopes of the Conservatives on the Seventh Waverers riding over the horizon..
Redfield & Wilton have 53% of the 2019 Conservative vote staying loyal, 14% voting Labour, 14% Don't Know and 7% Reform.
Opinium have 48% Conservative, 21% Don't Know, 13% Labour and 9% Reform
We Think have 51% Conservative, 18% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 11% Reform.
The bigger question is how much (if at all) have these numbers moved since January. The headline numbers have hardly budged. If the Conservatives polled 45% last time, one sixth of that is 7.5% of the entire electorate so add that to what Labour polled last time and they go from the mid 30s to early 40s. Add in new voters and switchers from the SNP, LDs and Greens and you can see where a mid-40s poll share from Labour comes from.
Those who say there is no swing are talking nonsense. There is always churn in the voting population but often it evens itself out - the current polls suggest at least 20% and perhaps up to 30% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone either Labour or Reform (that's 9-12% of the entire electorate). That's more than churn.
As we've seen at by elections, the Conservative vote is splintering and often quite effectively among the various opposition parties.
There you go. Tories switching to ReFuk as a protest is represented as a swing from Conservative to Labour. These are the people least likely to vote Labour.
Which means that many Americans may be able to go cross country skiing, soon. It's a low impact sport, and slightly better than even swiming as an aerobic exercise.
Because of its health benefits, I am entirely serious when I suggest the the UK promote the sport. Granted, in many (most?) places you would have to make snow, but that is not hard, or expensive, to do.
(Those who need Veblen kicks in their lives could visit Norway for the cross country skiing there. You'll impress anyone who knows how expensive that nation is.)
I remember a Swedish colleague telling me that they had experienced a bad winter. By which she meant not enough snow for cross country skiing.
Look at this superb quote. The journalist must have been aware as he wrote this
"According to four sources close to the company, Hunter Biden regularly attended Burisma’s twice annual board meetings – all of which were held outside of Ukraine"
Having somebody on the board who can bring the "good time" doesn't come cheap....
Hunter is a mess, but it does make me think.
Of course Joe worries and supports his wayward son. Perhaps some tough love earlier in life would have made a difference, but perhaps not. Addicts are like that.
A father who lost one son, and tries to protect the other from himself is not a bad person, just a human being.
And yet, somehow, I feel you would not extend such sympathy to Donald Trump
No, I completely understand why Trump supports his children, giving them government jobs and contracts etc.
Indeed his support for his family (not including ex wives) is one of the few positives about Trump.
FWIW I have met some hardcore Jewish Settler types
They can be deeply unpleasant. Filled with a poper Messianic zeal, replete with religious self belief, suffused with their own racial supremacy - actual proper cold-eyed Nazis - the mirror image of the Islamists
It s a toxic mix in a volatile place. Like using a naked flame to illuminate a room full of gunpowder
There is a very interesting and sad review by David Shulman in October's edition of the NY Review of Books of a book by Nathan Thrall - "A Day in the Life of Abed Salam: Anatomy of a Jerusalem Tragedy". It is about a bus with Palestinian children which got involved in an accident near Ramallah. The accident was unfortunate but the book explains how the rescue services were hampered in their help by all the various checkpoints etc in place in the West Bank. The author writes about one of the families involved and paints a grim picture of how badly treated Palestinians in the West Bank are - by the settlers and by every aspect of the Israeli state. It is awful, utterly awful.
Well worth reading.
The treatment of the Palestinians in the West Bank is in some ways so very much worse than what is happening in Gaza. It is awful on a human level; it kills off any prospect of a viable Palestinian state; and it utterly undermines Israel's claim to be democratic and liberal, 2 adjectives that cannot be applied to its behaviour in the West Bank.
I reviewed it here the other day on here. Brilliantly told.
Look at this superb quote. The journalist must have been aware as he wrote this
"According to four sources close to the company, Hunter Biden regularly attended Burisma’s twice annual board meetings – all of which were held outside of Ukraine"
Having somebody on the board who can bring the "good time" doesn't come cheap....
Hunter is a mess, but it does make me think.
Of course Joe worries and supports his wayward son. Perhaps some tough love earlier in life would have made a difference, but perhaps not. Addicts are like that.
A father who lost one son, and tries to protect the other from himself is not a bad person, just a human being.
And yet, somehow, I feel you would not extend such sympathy to Donald Trump
No, I completely understand why Trump supports his children, giving them government jobs and contracts etc.
Indeed his support for his family (not including ex wives) is one of the few positives about Trump.
Fair enough
And, incidentally, I agree. I am always uncomfortable with critiques of parents looking after their young kids. It is one of the primal human drives, and generally a good thing
The attacks on Trump's small children were disgraceful. Once they are grown - like Hunter Biden or Ivanka Trump - fair enough
Which means that many Americans may be able to go cross country skiing, soon. It's a low impact sport, and slightly better than even swiming as an aerobic exercise.
Because of its health benefits, I am entirely serious when I suggest the the UK promote the sport. Granted, in many (most?) places you would have to make snow, but that is not hard, or expensive, to do.
(Those who need Veblen kicks in their lives could visit Norway for the cross country skiing there. You'll impress anyone who knows how expensive that nation is.)
I can't see making snow is ever going to be viable across most of the UK - it's far too mild.
Which means that many Americans may be able to go cross country skiing, soon. It's a low impact sport, and slightly better than even swiming as an aerobic exercise.
Because of its health benefits, I am entirely serious when I suggest the the UK promote the sport. Granted, in many (most?) places you would have to make snow, but that is not hard, or expensive, to do.
(Those who need Veblen kicks in their lives could visit Norway for the cross country skiing there. You'll impress anyone who knows how expensive that nation is.)
Watched a video on the logistics of ski-towns in the USA, it was quite fascinating to see how much work is required including level of snow production and all the smoothing etc.
"Simultaneous attack by Hezbollah on 19 Israeli headquarters
Al-Mayadeen: The Islamic resistance of Lebanon has simultaneously attacked 19 Israeli military bases and headquarters on the border of Lebanon and Israel."
"Simultaneous attack by Hezbollah on 19 Israeli headquarters
Al-Mayadeen: The Islamic resistance of Lebanon has simultaneously attacked 19 Israeli military bases and headquarters on the border of Lebanon and Israel."
Channel 4 News excellent as always. A woman from the hospital in Gaza was more impressive than any single spokeswoman I have seen on any side. Matt Frei is by a distance the best reporter in the area and no histrionics or showmanship which makes him unique
Yes he's very good. And having to do an extra long stint out there because Krishnan is on Strictly.
I've been a non-exec. The going rate, even for the largest of companies, is not $1m/year.
But with all due respect, despite the great esteem owed your Dad, he has never been a US Senator, Vice President of the USA, and now the most powerful man on earth, even if PB is quite influential
I imagine the Biden name brings a significant premium, $1m a year seems quite reasonable in that respect
If it were Joe Biden on the board, it would be one thing, but his son? Nah, that's ridiculous.
Now, did Burisma anything out of it? I doubt it. Maybe they spoke a little more quickly to State Department officials than would otherwise have been the case. But, by and large, they overpaid to get a "name" (or a surname) on the board.
FWIW I have met some hardcore Jewish Settler types
They can be deeply unpleasant. Filled with a poper Messianic zeal, replete with religious self belief, suffused with their own racial supremacy - actual proper cold-eyed Nazis - the mirror image of the Islamists
It s a toxic mix in a volatile place. Like using a naked flame to illuminate a room full of gunpowder
There is a very interesting and sad review by David Shulman in October's edition of the NY Review of Books of a book by Nathan Thrall - "A Day in the Life of Abed Salam: Anatomy of a Jerusalem Tragedy". It is about a bus with Palestinian children which got involved in an accident near Ramallah. The accident was unfortunate but the book explains how the rescue services were hampered in their help by all the various checkpoints etc in place in the West Bank. The author writes about one of the families involved and paints a grim picture of how badly treated Palestinians in the West Bank are - by the settlers and by every aspect of the Israeli state. It is awful, utterly awful.
Well worth reading.
The treatment of the Palestinians in the West Bank is in some ways so very much worse than what is happening in Gaza. It is awful on a human level; it kills off any prospect of a viable Palestinian state; and it utterly undermines Israel's claim to be democratic and liberal, 2 adjectives that cannot be applied to its behaviour in the West Bank.
I reviewed it here the other day on here. Brilliantly told.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
FWIW I have met some hardcore Jewish Settler types
They can be deeply unpleasant. Filled with a poper Messianic zeal, replete with religious self belief, suffused with their own racial supremacy - actual proper cold-eyed Nazis - the mirror image of the Islamists
It s a toxic mix in a volatile place. Like using a naked flame to illuminate a room full of gunpowder
There is a very interesting and sad review by David Shulman in October's edition of the NY Review of Books of a book by Nathan Thrall - "A Day in the Life of Abed Salam: Anatomy of a Jerusalem Tragedy". It is about a bus with Palestinian children which got involved in an accident near Ramallah. The accident was unfortunate but the book explains how the rescue services were hampered in their help by all the various checkpoints etc in place in the West Bank. The author writes about one of the families involved and paints a grim picture of how badly treated Palestinians in the West Bank are - by the settlers and by every aspect of the Israeli state. It is awful, utterly awful.
Well worth reading.
The treatment of the Palestinians in the West Bank is in some ways so very much worse than what is happening in Gaza. It is awful on a human level; it kills off any prospect of a viable Palestinian state; and it utterly undermines Israel's claim to be democratic and liberal, 2 adjectives that cannot be applied to its behaviour in the West Bank.
I reviewed it here the other day on here. Brilliantly told.
"BREAKING: CNN reports a US official saying that Iran 'knows that if Hezbollah escalates the conflict with Israel or the United States it would likely provoke direct counterattacks against Iran that could be devastating'."
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
On topic,as I often say, voters jumping between the two main parties are rarities. The whole notion of swing is misguided. Differential turnout is what wins and loses elections.
Though I read somewhere that fewer than 50% for voters voted for the same party at all 4 elections 2010-2019.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
This is a critical moment in the war. If Hezbollah does go all in, with Iranian backing, then we are looking at a much wider regional war, which could easily lead to a direct US/Iran confrontation
Is Hezbollah bluffing? They have hyped tomorrow's speech, excessively. They will look a little feeble, perhaps, if it is just bluster. Or maybe they genuinely think they can bluff and win against the USA/Israel?
Or maybe they have genuinely decided to go to war; possibly this was the plan all along?
Snow makers need temperatures of zero degrees Celsius to operate. Scotland's average low is very close to that for December, January, February and March, so at a guess you might be able to make snow there during somewhere between 30 and 60 days a year. (Weather data in the US is generally collected in cities; if the same is true in Scotland, then the odds would be even better.)
Snow, once made, can last for days, even when the temperature is above freezing.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
If we're going to take one poll and build an entire hypothesis, fine, but there are other pollsters and other evidence to consider unless you want to build the entire re-election hopes of the Conservatives on the Seventh Waverers riding over the horizon..
Redfield & Wilton have 53% of the 2019 Conservative vote staying loyal, 14% voting Labour, 14% Don't Know and 7% Reform.
Opinium have 48% Conservative, 21% Don't Know, 13% Labour and 9% Reform
We Think have 51% Conservative, 18% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 11% Reform.
The bigger question is how much (if at all) have these numbers moved since January. The headline numbers have hardly budged. If the Conservatives polled 45% last time, one sixth of that is 7.5% of the entire electorate so add that to what Labour polled last time and they go from the mid 30s to early 40s. Add in new voters and switchers from the SNP, LDs and Greens and you can see where a mid-40s poll share from Labour comes from.
Those who say there is no swing are talking nonsense. There is always churn in the voting population but often it evens itself out - the current polls suggest at least 20% and perhaps up to 30% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone either Labour or Reform (that's 9-12% of the entire electorate). That's more than churn.
As we've seen at by elections, the Conservative vote is splintering and often quite effectively among the various opposition parties.
There you go. Tories switching to ReFuk as a protest is represented as a swing from Conservative to Labour. These are the people least likely to vote Labour.
The net effect is to decrease the Conservative vote and if that happens and the Labour vote is static, there is a "swing" to Labour because the numbers are looked at in absolute terms not as a function of how they are constructed.
True, the 2019 Conservative vote isn't going wholly to Labour but it is splintering and fragmenting and effriciently going wholly to one anti-Conservative Party in one area and, as in Mid Bedfordshire where it was less obvious who were the main challengers, being split among anti-Conservative parties.
The evidence Reform supporters will come back to the Conservatives is mixed at best - Farage doesn't seem that enamoured of Sunak in truth. The Don't Knows are harder to evaluate - will they ALL return? Seems doubtful - some will undoubtedly but others will abstain. The Conservatives are 20 points behind (being charitable). They need every vote they can get or get back.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
I mean, I don't want to be Mister Leon La-La-Land Polka-Dot Hyperbole-Pants, but....
"Syrian Sources are reporting that Thousands of Iranian-Backed Militia Members have arrived in Southern Lebanon over the last week and that Tens of Thousands are still Staging inside of Syria near the Border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights."
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Good to hear from you, Big G. Look after yourself and Mrs G. Keep going, you will have your 21st birthday celebration to look forward to in a few years time.
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
With environmentalism seemingly an optional extra.
You need to remember that what has happened is that a bunch of glorified student activists have hijacked the respectable term "Green" and got themselves elected to Holyrood (via PR) on the back of it.
The guy who made the Greens a force in the first place, and was their first MSP, Robin Harper, has resigned from the party in disgust.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
Speaking of elections -- if you don't mind - Seattle is having one that is, to say the least, interesting. I hope SS2, who lives there, and knows that scene far better than I, will put up some long comments on it
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I mean, I don't want to be Mister Leon La-La-Land Polka-Dot Hyperbole-Pants, but....
"Syrian Sources are reporting that Thousands of Iranian-Backed Militia Members have arrived in Southern Lebanon over the last week and that Tens of Thousands are still Staging inside of Syria near the Border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights."
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
With environmentalism seemingly an optional extra.
You need to remember that what has happened is that a bunch of glorified student activists have hijacked the respectable term "Green" and got themselves elected to Holyrood (via PR) on the back of it.
The guy who made the Greens a force in the first place, and was their first MSP, Robin Harper, has resigned from the party in disgust.
Their best ever MSP, Andy Wightman, also resigned in disgust.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
I keep advising my wife of that - she does brilliant sugar arts (sculpture in cake icing) - and knowing when to stop “improving” is a critical skill.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
On the other hand, if someone simply takes joy from creating something - in writing books, composing music, painting pictures - then why should they not keep on going, even if they may be regarded by others as having lost their edge?
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
On topic,as I often say, voters jumping between the two main parties are rarities. The whole notion of swing is misguided. Differential turnout is what wins and loses elections.
Though I read somewhere that fewer than 50% for voters voted for the same party at all 4 elections 2010-2019.
Not surprising. There are two many hurdles. To achieve this (I did by the way) you have to: Qualify by age and still living for all four; get registered for all four; actually turn up to vote in all four - turnout in 2010 was under two thirds; and finally vote consistently.
Just the turnout figure, if you do the maths, indicates that probably not all that many who qualified even voted in all four - very likely less than half.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
I keep advising my wife of that - she does brilliant sugar arts (sculpture in cake icing) - and knowing when to stop “improving” is a critical skill.
Perfection is for the Gods alone
"No work or art is ever completed, it is only abandoned"
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "2006".
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
On the other hand, if someone simply takes joy from creating something - in writing books, composing music, painting pictures - then why should they not keep on going, even if they may be regarded by others as having lost their edge?
That’s certainly Dylan - he just enjoys carrying on performing. ” Critics should know there is no such thing as forever. Does anybody call Henry Ford a Never Ending Car Builder? Anybody ever say that Duke Ellington was on a Never Ending Bandstand Tour? These days, people are lucky to have a job. Any job. So critics might be uncomfortable with my working so much. Anybody with a trade can work as long as they want. A carpenter, an electrician. They don't necessarily need to retire.”
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Was idly flicking through my old copy of the Concise Oxford Dictionary of Quotations (a break from PB) and was rather taken aback when I came across this:
William Norman Ewer (1885-1976)
How odd Of God To choose The Jews
Underneath there is a footnote:see 48:4. Flipped to it, to find:
Cecil Browne (no dates)
But not so odd As those who choose A Jewish God But spurn the Jews
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Hmm
Israel could only manage a score draw with Hezbollah in 2006. And Hezbollah have been re-upping their capabilities ever since. With Russian and Iranian help, they would be a formidable foe, especially for an Israel fighting on two fronts
I mean, I don't want to be Mister Leon La-La-Land Polka-Dot Hyperbole-Pants, but....
"Syrian Sources are reporting that Thousands of Iranian-Backed Militia Members have arrived in Southern Lebanon over the last week and that Tens of Thousands are still Staging inside of Syria near the Border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights."
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
On the other hand, if someone simply takes joy from creating something - in writing books, composing music, painting pictures - then why should they not keep on going, even if they may be regarded by others as having lost their edge?
Fair point; but the roll call of those who on the whole only published the best stuff, and self limited is interesting. Austen, Emily Bronte (but not her sisters); Ravel, Durufle, Vermeer, Larkin.
The greatest limiter of course is early death. This list is far too long and keeps getting longer.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
I keep advising my wife of that - she does brilliant sugar arts (sculpture in cake icing) - and knowing when to stop “improving” is a critical skill.
Perfection is for the Gods alone
"No work or art is ever completed, it is only abandoned"
When I used to do photography I used to get horrified looks from other photographers when I said "If it's going to take me more than about 30 seconds to edit a photo - I just bin it."
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
The Beatles certainly didn't lack it. They stopped at exactly the right time for them and probably for their music. As a group they ceased to exist in 1971 and went on to have extremely successful solo careers. This latest release is not really the Beatles in any meaningful sense and it is kind of sad that Paul and RIngo are cashing in on the name in this way.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Hmm
Israel could only manage a score draw with Hezbollah in 2006. And Hezbollah have been re-upping their capabilities ever since. With Russian and Iranian help, they would be a formidable foe, especially for an Israel fighting on two fronts
I'm sure they can cause a lot of problems for Israel. But invading is hard.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Hmm
Israel could only manage a score draw with Hezbollah in 2006. And Hezbollah have been re-upping their capabilities ever since. With Russian and Iranian help, they would be a formidable foe, especially for an Israel fighting on two fronts
The Russians of course have lots of spare capacity to help.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
You think Israel would calmly nuke Tehran?
I don't believe that is true for a moment. If you mean Israel could flatten Tehran with conventional forces then I am equally skeptical, and any attempt would of course invite every Islamic nation in the region to then attack Israel
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Quite
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
You think Israel would calmly nuke Tehran?
I don't believe that is true for a moment. If you mean Israel could flatten Tehran with conventional forces then I am equally skeptical, and any attempt would of course invite every Islamic nation in the region to then attack Israel
It’s not quite as clear cut as Islamic vs non Islamic. Plenty of countries in the ME can’t stand Iran.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
You think Israel would calmly nuke Tehran?
I don't believe that is true for a moment. If you mean Israel could flatten Tehran with conventional forces then I am equally skeptical, and any attempt would of course invite every Islamic nation in the region to then attack Israel
I don't think they would calmly nuke anywhere. But yes they would certainly make a mess of Iran. Bear in mind that both Syria and Iraq are in no state to do anything militarily against Israel, Jordan is too tied to the West and Egypt has its own problems. Would it be a walk in the park - of course not. But I don't for a minute believe Israel would hold back from making a real mess of Iran if they felt it necessary.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
You think Israel would calmly nuke Tehran?
I don't believe that is true for a moment. If you mean Israel could flatten Tehran with conventional forces then I am equally skeptical, and any attempt would of course invite every Islamic nation in the region to then attack Israel
Why would any of that happen? Hezbollah attacks Israel and Israel strikes back. Not great for Lebanon. But Israel won't be directly attacking Iran.
We might one day, I suppose, see Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities but that's quite separate from the war with Hamas or, indeed, with Hezbollah.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
The Beatles certainly didn't lack it. They stopped at exactly the right time for them and probably for their music. As a group they ceased to exist in 1971 and went on to have extremely successful solo careers. This latest release is not really the Beatles in any meaningful sense and it is kind of sad that Paul and RIngo are cashing in on the name in this way.
I'm not sure the cash from the sales would even show up as a rounding error on either of their daily grocery shopping.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
You think Israel would calmly nuke Tehran?
I don't believe that is true for a moment. If you mean Israel could flatten Tehran with conventional forces then I am equally skeptical, and any attempt would of course invite every Islamic nation in the region to then attack Israel
I don't think they would calmly nuke anywhere. But yes they would certainly make a mess of Iran. Bear in mind that both Syria and Iraq are in no state to do anything militarily against Israel, Jordan is too tied to the West and Egypt has its own problems. Would it be a walk in the park - of course not. But I don't for a minute believe Israel would hold back from making a real mess of Iran if they felt it necessary.
And then have loads of people go "they're too good at retaliating!"
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Quite
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
A modern, well trained, well equipped army.... that completely missed an incursion by 1500 Hamas fighters from supposedly the most surveilled place on earth, surrounded by razor wire and laser guns, and was unable to respond fast enough to save 1400 Jewish lives?
Is it possible the IDF is a bit of a paper tiger? They can beat the shit ouf of Palestinian kids cowering in cellars or hiding in olive groves, but they're not so good against actual fighters?
I dunno. I genuinely dunno. But Israel's last biggish war was Hezbollah in 2006 and that was widely regarded as a draw
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "2006".
Yes, when Israel invaded Lebanon.
Invading is hard, as Russia has discovered.
The idea that even tens of thousands of Hezbollah/Lebanon troops could successfully invade Israel is utterly ridiculous.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
The Beatles certainly didn't lack it. They stopped at exactly the right time for them and probably for their music. As a group they ceased to exist in 1971 and went on to have extremely successful solo careers. This latest release is not really the Beatles in any meaningful sense and it is kind of sad that Paul and RIngo are cashing in on the name in this way.
I'm not sure the cash from the sales would even show up as a rounding error on either of their daily grocery shopping.
Fair point. But, as a massive Beatles fan including most of the solo work post 71, I have to say I can see no good reason to release this. It just isn't very good.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
The Beatles certainly didn't lack it. They stopped at exactly the right time for them and probably for their music. As a group they ceased to exist in 1971 and went on to have extremely successful solo careers. This latest release is not really the Beatles in any meaningful sense and it is kind of sad that Paul and RIngo are cashing in on the name in this way.
20th August 1969. The final day the Beatles were in the studio together. Lennon tells Emerick "cut it right there" to end I Want You (She's So Heavy).
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Quite
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
A modern, well trained, well equipped army.... that completely missed an incursion by 1500 Hamas fighters from supposedly the most surveilled place on earth, surrounded by razor wire and laser guns, and was unable to respond fast enough to save 1400 Jewish lives?
Is it possible the IDF is a bit of a paper tiger? They can beat the shit ouf of Palestinian kids cowering in cellars or hiding in olive groves, but they're not so good against actual fighters?
I dunno. I genuinely dunno. But Israel's last biggish war was Hezbollah in 2006 and that was widely regarded as a draw
How much of Israel do those fighters control?
A raid, with lots of Israeli dead, of course they can do that. But they can't actually defeat Israel militarily, just as Ukraine can't invade Russia and march to the gates of Moscow.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "2006".
Yes, when Israel invaded Lebanon.
Invading is hard, as Russia has discovered.
The idea that even tens of thousands of Hezbollah/Lebanon troops could successfully invade Israel is utterly ridiculous.
Who said anything about invasion?
Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets (and God knows what else - eg drones- if this spectacular has been long in the planning)
It is commonly thought that an all out assault with those rockets would overwhelm Iron Dome. So then Israel has to invade Lebanon to stop the missiles. Or rely on the US to attack Iran and Lebanon on its behalf. Complicated
I agree a frontal Hezbollah invasion of Israel would be much more difficult and highly unlikely to succeed. Jews would fight for every inch of their nation. So they probably won't try that
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
The Beatles certainly didn't lack it. They stopped at exactly the right time for them and probably for their music. As a group they ceased to exist in 1971 and went on to have extremely successful solo careers. This latest release is not really the Beatles in any meaningful sense and it is kind of sad that Paul and RIngo are cashing in on the name in this way.
20th August 1969. The final day the Beatles were in the studio together. Lennon tells Emerick "cut it right there" to end I Want You (She's So Heavy).
A great way to end.
Abbey Road remains my far and a way favourite Beatles album. Just brilliant.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "2006".
Yes, when Israel invaded Lebanon.
Invading is hard, as Russia has discovered.
The idea that even tens of thousands of Hezbollah/Lebanon troops could successfully invade Israel is utterly ridiculous.
Who said anything about invasion?
Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets (and God knows what else - eg drones- if this spectacular has been long in the planning)
It is commonly thought that an all out assault with those rockets would overwhelm Iron Dome. So then Israel has to invade Lebanon to stop the missiles. Or rely on the US to attack Iran and Lebanon on its behalf. Complicated
I agree a frontal Hezbollah invasion of Israel would be much more difficult and highly unlikely to succeed. Jews would fight for every inch of their nation. So they probably won't try that
That would be, ummm, you:
"Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?"
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
A bit unfair on Dylan. His record has been patchy since the glory days but Rough and Rowdy Ways is a pretty good addition to the canon. And, in fact, most of the post-2000 output has been worthwhile and fitted well with his self-styled persona as an ageing ornery troubadour. He continues to be quintessentially Dylan.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Quite
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
A modern, well trained, well equipped army.... that completely missed an incursion by 1500 Hamas fighters from supposedly the most surveilled place on earth, surrounded by razor wire and laser guns, and was unable to respond fast enough to save 1400 Jewish lives?
Is it possible the IDF is a bit of a paper tiger? They can beat the shit ouf of Palestinian kids cowering in cellars or hiding in olive groves, but they're not so good against actual fighters?
I dunno. I genuinely dunno. But Israel's last biggish war was Hezbollah in 2006 and that was widely regarded as a draw
How much of Israel do those fighters control?
A raid, with lots of Israeli dead, of course they can do that. But they can't actually defeat Israel militarily, just as Ukraine can't invade Russia and march to the gates of Moscow.
Your thinking is simplistic and monochrome
No of course Israel is not going to be overrun, and Jerusalem will not be reconquered by Hamas/Hezbollah
But there are ways of inflicting a stinging defeat on Israel without any of that. Make large parts of Israel almost uninhabitable by the constant threat of attack from Gaza and Lebanon - and maybe from within, from the West Bank and Israeli Arabs
Thereby slowly but surely corrode the raison d'etre of Israel: as the ultimate safe place for Jews
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "2006".
Yes, when Israel invaded Lebanon.
Invading is hard, as Russia has discovered.
The idea that even tens of thousands of Hezbollah/Lebanon troops could successfully invade Israel is utterly ridiculous.
Who said anything about invasion?
Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets (and God knows what else - eg drones- if this spectacular has been long in the planning)
It is commonly thought that an all out assault with those rockets would overwhelm Iron Dome. So then Israel has to invade Lebanon to stop the missiles. Or rely on the US to attack Iran and Lebanon on its behalf. Complicated
I agree a frontal Hezbollah invasion of Israel would be much more difficult and highly unlikely to succeed. Jews would fight for every inch of their nation. So they probably won't try that
That would be, ummm, you:
"Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?"
I'm saying America won't do that. It won't launch a full on attack on Iran to save a secondary Israeli city from becoming uninhabitable due to constant menace from over the border
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Quite
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
A modern, well trained, well equipped army.... that completely missed an incursion by 1500 Hamas fighters from supposedly the most surveilled place on earth, surrounded by razor wire and laser guns, and was unable to respond fast enough to save 1400 Jewish lives?
Is it possible the IDF is a bit of a paper tiger? They can beat the shit ouf of Palestinian kids cowering in cellars or hiding in olive groves, but they're not so good against actual fighters?
I dunno. I genuinely dunno. But Israel's last biggish war was Hezbollah in 2006 and that was widely regarded as a draw
How much of Israel do those fighters control?
A raid, with lots of Israeli dead, of course they can do that. But they can't actually defeat Israel militarily, just as Ukraine can't invade Russia and march to the gates of Moscow.
Your thinking is simplistic and monochrome
No of course Israel is not going to be overrun, and Jerusalem will not be reconquered by Hamas/Hezbollah
But there are ways of inflicting a stinging defeat on Israel without any of that. Make large parts of Israel almost uninhabitable by the constant threat of attack from Gaza and Lebanon - and maybe from within, from the West Bank and Israeli Arabs
Thereby slowly but surely corrode the raison d'etre of Israel: as the ultimate safe place for Jews
By the way, how is the destruction of Ukraine by constant missile attacks going?
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Quite
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
A modern, well trained, well equipped army.... that completely missed an incursion by 1500 Hamas fighters from supposedly the most surveilled place on earth, surrounded by razor wire and laser guns, and was unable to respond fast enough to save 1400 Jewish lives?
Is it possible the IDF is a bit of a paper tiger? They can beat the shit ouf of Palestinian kids cowering in cellars or hiding in olive groves, but they're not so good against actual fighters?
I dunno. I genuinely dunno. But Israel's last biggish war was Hezbollah in 2006 and that was widely regarded as a draw
How much of Israel do those fighters control?
A raid, with lots of Israeli dead, of course they can do that. But they can't actually defeat Israel militarily, just as Ukraine can't invade Russia and march to the gates of Moscow.
Your thinking is simplistic and monochrome
No of course Israel is not going to be overrun, and Jerusalem will not be reconquered by Hamas/Hezbollah
But there are ways of inflicting a stinging defeat on Israel without any of that. Make large parts of Israel almost uninhabitable by the constant threat of attack from Gaza and Lebanon - and maybe from within, from the West Bank and Israeli Arabs
Thereby slowly but surely corrode the raison d'etre of Israel: as the ultimate safe place for Jews
By the way, how is the destruction of Ukraine by constant missile attacks going?
Well, all the PB-ers who were telling me to "shut the fuck" for being a "Putinist shill" and a "fucking appeaser", for merely suggesting that Ukraine's offensive was maybe going nowhere, and the war was stalemated, seem to have gone awful quiet
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
Also weirdly pro-Palestinian to the point of being - allegedly - pro-Hamas attacks
What is this eerie, ugly, narcissistic Celtic indlugence of Hamas? Ireland is rank with it
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
Also weirdly pro-Palestinian to the point of being - allegedly - pro-Hamas attacks
What is this eerie, ugly, narcissistic Celtic indlugence of Hamas? Ireland is rank with it
Some see the fight against the English as similar to the Palestinian struggle.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "2006".
Yes, when Israel invaded Lebanon.
Invading is hard, as Russia has discovered.
The idea that even tens of thousands of Hezbollah/Lebanon troops could successfully invade Israel is utterly ridiculous.
Who said anything about invasion?
Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets (and God knows what else - eg drones- if this spectacular has been long in the planning)
It is commonly thought that an all out assault with those rockets would overwhelm Iron Dome. So then Israel has to invade Lebanon to stop the missiles. Or rely on the US to attack Iran and Lebanon on its behalf. Complicated
I agree a frontal Hezbollah invasion of Israel would be much more difficult and highly unlikely to succeed. Jews would fight for every inch of their nation. So they probably won't try that
That would be, ummm, you:
"Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?"
Evangelicals would demand it did, as would many Roman Catholics
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Quite
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
A modern, well trained, well equipped army.... that completely missed an incursion by 1500 Hamas fighters from supposedly the most surveilled place on earth, surrounded by razor wire and laser guns, and was unable to respond fast enough to save 1400 Jewish lives?
Is it possible the IDF is a bit of a paper tiger? They can beat the shit ouf of Palestinian kids cowering in cellars or hiding in olive groves, but they're not so good against actual fighters?
I dunno. I genuinely dunno. But Israel's last biggish war was Hezbollah in 2006 and that was widely regarded as a draw
How much of Israel do those fighters control?
A raid, with lots of Israeli dead, of course they can do that. But they can't actually defeat Israel militarily, just as Ukraine can't invade Russia and march to the gates of Moscow.
Your thinking is simplistic and monochrome
No of course Israel is not going to be overrun, and Jerusalem will not be reconquered by Hamas/Hezbollah
But there are ways of inflicting a stinging defeat on Israel without any of that. Make large parts of Israel almost uninhabitable by the constant threat of attack from Gaza and Lebanon - and maybe from within, from the West Bank and Israeli Arabs
Thereby slowly but surely corrode the raison d'etre of Israel: as the ultimate safe place for Jews
By the way, how is the destruction of Ukraine by constant missile attacks going?
Well, all the PB-ers who were telling me to "shut the fuck" for being a "Putinist shill" and a "fucking appeaser", for merely suggesting that Ukraine's offensive was maybe going nowhere, and the war was stalemated, seem to have gone awful quiet
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
The last Beatles single - Free as a Bird - was rubbish too.
25 years ago, I think!
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.' Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
Also weirdly pro-Palestinian to the point of being - allegedly - pro-Hamas attacks
What is this eerie, ugly, narcissistic Celtic indlugence of Hamas? Ireland is rank with it
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
Also weirdly pro-Palestinian to the point of being - allegedly - pro-Hamas attacks
What is this eerie, ugly, narcissistic Celtic indlugence of Hamas? Ireland is rank with it
Some see the fight against the English as similar to the Palestinian struggle.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
Which rather misses the point that Israel don't need the US to do anything if they decide to wipe out Tehran. They are perfectly capable of doing it themselves. The only thing currently hampering Israel is the fact they are having to fight an assymetric war and are making some attempts to do so without simply wiping out every Palestinian in Gaza. If it came to a proper shooting war with Iran or their Syrian/Lebanese proxies then Israel would have no such need for restraint.
Quite
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
A modern, well trained, well equipped army.... that completely missed an incursion by 1500 Hamas fighters from supposedly the most surveilled place on earth, surrounded by razor wire and laser guns, and was unable to respond fast enough to save 1400 Jewish lives?
Is it possible the IDF is a bit of a paper tiger? They can beat the shit ouf of Palestinian kids cowering in cellars or hiding in olive groves, but they're not so good against actual fighters?
I dunno. I genuinely dunno. But Israel's last biggish war was Hezbollah in 2006 and that was widely regarded as a draw
How much of Israel do those fighters control?
A raid, with lots of Israeli dead, of course they can do that. But they can't actually defeat Israel militarily, just as Ukraine can't invade Russia and march to the gates of Moscow.
Your thinking is simplistic and monochrome
No of course Israel is not going to be overrun, and Jerusalem will not be reconquered by Hamas/Hezbollah
But there are ways of inflicting a stinging defeat on Israel without any of that. Make large parts of Israel almost uninhabitable by the constant threat of attack from Gaza and Lebanon - and maybe from within, from the West Bank and Israeli Arabs
Thereby slowly but surely corrode the raison d'etre of Israel: as the ultimate safe place for Jews
By the way, how is the destruction of Ukraine by constant missile attacks going?
Well, all the PB-ers who were telling me to "shut the fuck" for being a "Putinist shill" and a "fucking appeaser", for merely suggesting that Ukraine's offensive was maybe going nowhere, and the war was stalemated, seem to have gone awful quiet
You were telling us that nuclear war was imminent, and we’d have to throw Ukraine to the wolves to avoid it.
No offence, but I would not want you anywhere near running a military campaign.
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
Also weirdly pro-Palestinian to the point of being - allegedly - pro-Hamas attacks
What is this eerie, ugly, narcissistic Celtic indlugence of Hamas? Ireland is rank with it
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
Also weirdly pro-Palestinian to the point of being - allegedly - pro-Hamas attacks
What is this eerie, ugly, narcissistic Celtic indlugence of Hamas? Ireland is rank with it
Some see the fight against the English as similar to the Palestinian struggle.
"Two People, One Struggle", as the banners at Celtic Park say.
This does look, ominously, like a potential full-on Hezbollah assault on Israel
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating - Teasers - Various hints they will escalate - Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise - Lebanese schools closing - Airport evacuation plans - Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal - And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
And yet I remember people saying exactly this before Putin invaded Ukraine. "Oh it's all bluster, he won't do it". Even though he was saying he would do it. Then he went and did it
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews 2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza 3. Thereby gain world sympathy 4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza 5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
A few thousand - or even tens of thousands - of Hezbollah and Lebanese soldiers are not going to be able to militarily defeat Israel.
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "2006".
Yes, when Israel invaded Lebanon.
Invading is hard, as Russia has discovered.
The idea that even tens of thousands of Hezbollah/Lebanon troops could successfully invade Israel is utterly ridiculous.
Who said anything about invasion?
Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets (and God knows what else - eg drones- if this spectacular has been long in the planning)
It is commonly thought that an all out assault with those rockets would overwhelm Iron Dome. So then Israel has to invade Lebanon to stop the missiles. Or rely on the US to attack Iran and Lebanon on its behalf. Complicated
I agree a frontal Hezbollah invasion of Israel would be much more difficult and highly unlikely to succeed. Jews would fight for every inch of their nation. So they probably won't try that
That would be, ummm, you:
"Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?"
Evangelicals would demand it did, as would many Roman Catholics
Who cares what lunatics think? We don't have President Trump to worry about.
Comments
What is this eerie, ugly, narcissistic Celtic indlugence of Hamas? Ireland is rank with it
Of course Joe worries and supports his wayward son. Perhaps some tough love earlier in life would have made a difference, but perhaps not. Addicts are like that.
A father who lost one son, and tries to protect the other from himself is not a bad person, just a human being.
Keep smiling.
Having said that, SE class AB outlive CDE and the age tilt in voting at the last GE was so heavy that even a small reverse is a major threat to the Tories.
I think an environmentally focused party that didn't add a whole bunch of trendy ephemera or radical social or economic ideasnwould be quite interesting personally. Maybe all those rural greens elected at the locals might start changing them.
I imagine the Biden name brings a significant premium, $1m a year seems quite reasonable in that respect
Indeed his support for his family (not including ex wives) is one of the few positives about Trump.
But no worse than Gaza. Watch 'The Present'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcnMggQ79XQ
And, incidentally, I agree. I am always uncomfortable with critiques of parents looking after their young kids. It is one of the primal human drives, and generally a good thing
The attacks on Trump's small children were disgraceful. Once they are grown - like Hunter Biden or Ivanka Trump - fair enough
"Simultaneous attack by Hezbollah on 19 Israeli headquarters
Al-Mayadeen: The Islamic resistance of Lebanon has simultaneously attacked 19 Israeli military bases and headquarters on the border of Lebanon and Israel."
https://x.com/Sprinter99800/status/1720172446941085844?s=20
UNCONFIRMED
Now, did Burisma anything out of it? I doubt it. Maybe they spoke a little more quickly to State Department officials than would otherwise have been the case. But, by and large, they overpaid to get a "name" (or a surname) on the board.
He’s a recovering addict, btw, so you kind of prove the point.
"JUST IN: HEZBOLLAH RELEASES FINAL TEASER BEFORE TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED SPEECH ON WHETHER THEY WILL JOIN THE WAR
🚨This is the FIRST TIME Hezbollah release teasers for a speech, making this VERY CONCERNING
MY THOUGHTS:
- Clashes escalating
- Teasers
- Various hints they will escalate
- Iran and their proxies hinting of a surprise
- Lebanese schools closing
- Airport evacuation plans
- Prime Minister preparing for war, and a last ditch effort to reach a peace deal
- And most importantly, the leak we mentioned yesterday: Iran and Hezbollah warned the US that if the war doesn't pause tomorrow, Hezboollah is joining
THINGS DO NOT LOOK GOOD"
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1720127444101845328?s=20
"BREAKING: CNN reports a US official saying that Iran 'knows that if Hezbollah escalates the conflict with Israel or the United States it would likely provoke direct counterattacks against Iran that could be devastating'."
https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1720131366837510494?s=20
America is facing down Hezbollah/Iran
https://time.com/6330102/biden-israel-gaza-arab-americans-trump/
Is Hezbollah bluffing? They have hyped tomorrow's speech, excessively. They will look a little feeble, perhaps, if it is just bluster. Or maybe they genuinely think they can bluff and win against the USA/Israel?
Or maybe they have genuinely decided to go to war; possibly this was the plan all along?
Here's the weathr data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_United_Kingdom
Snow makers need temperatures of zero degrees Celsius to operate. Scotland's average low is very close to that for December, January, February and March, so at a guess you might be able to make snow there during somewhere between 30 and 60 days a year. (Weather data in the US is generally collected in cities; if the same is true in Scotland, then the odds would be even better.)
Snow, once made, can last for days, even when the temperature is above freezing.
I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Hezbollah. That histrionic tweet is written like China is about to invade Taiwan.
Absurd hyperbole.
True, the 2019 Conservative vote isn't going wholly to Labour but it is splintering and fragmenting and effriciently going wholly to one anti-Conservative Party in one area and, as in Mid Bedfordshire where it was less obvious who were the main challengers, being split among anti-Conservative parties.
The evidence Reform supporters will come back to the Conservatives is mixed at best - Farage doesn't seem that enamoured of Sunak in truth. The Don't Knows are harder to evaluate - will they ALL return? Seems doubtful - some will undoubtedly but others will abstain. The Conservatives are 20 points behind (being charitable). They need every vote they can get or get back.
"Syrian Sources are reporting that Thousands of Iranian-Backed Militia Members have arrived in Southern Lebanon over the last week and that Tens of Thousands are still Staging inside of Syria near the Border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights."
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1720153987058385199?s=20
Brace...?
The guy who made the Greens a force in the first place, and was their first MSP, Robin Harper, has resigned from the party in disgust.
'The supreme gift of an artist is the knowledge of when to stop.'
Sherlock Holmes. (The Norwood Builder). Curiously Richmal Crompton attributes this quality to William Brown. But lots of far greater people - Bob Dylan, The Beatles, Wordsworth and lots more - lacked it.
Perfection is for the Gods alone
Who knows what will happen tomorrow (I have no idea). We know today that clashes in the north of Israel are much more intense than at any point since 2006
If Islamic forces have gamed all this, I imagine this is the thinking
1. Get Hamas to do a massive, cruel attack on Israel, slaughtering many hundreds of Jews
2. Rile the world, and most of all rile Israel, who will then react with brutal and focused force on Gaza
3. Thereby gain world sympathy
4. At the same time, prepare forces in Lebanon with arms, troops, drones, etc, to attack Israel when she is already concentrating on Gaza
5. Call America's bluff. Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?
If you wanted to inflict a terrible humbling defeat on Israel, that would be a pretty good way of doing it, with a fairly good prospect of success
When do you think the Beatles should have quit?
No Let It Be? No Abbey Road?
Just the turnout figure, if you do the maths, indicates that probably not all that many who qualified even voted in all four - very likely less than half.
” Critics should know there is no such thing as forever. Does anybody call Henry Ford a Never Ending Car Builder? Anybody ever say that Duke Ellington was on a Never Ending Bandstand Tour? These days, people are lucky to have a job. Any job. So critics might be uncomfortable with my working so much. Anybody with a trade can work as long as they want. A carpenter, an electrician. They don't necessarily need to retire.”
William Norman Ewer (1885-1976)
How odd
Of God
To choose
The Jews
Underneath there is a footnote:see 48:4. Flipped to it, to find:
Cecil Browne (no dates)
But not so odd
As those who choose
A Jewish God
But spurn the Jews
Which made me feel a bit better.
Israel could only manage a score draw with Hezbollah in 2006. And Hezbollah have been re-upping their capabilities ever since. With Russian and Iranian help, they would be a formidable foe, especially for an Israel fighting on two fronts
"The Iranian Imam Hossein militia, originally stationed in Syria, was deployed to southern Lebanon in an attempt to support Hezbollah.
The militia is involved in confrontations with the IDF and terrorist activities against Israel, putting the lives of the Lebanese people at risk.
The IDF is well-prepared to respond firmly to any threat in any arena."
https://x.com/IDF/status/1720148264152932686?s=20
The greatest limiter of course is early death. This list is far too long and keeps getting longer.
I don't believe that is true for a moment. If you mean Israel could flatten Tehran with conventional forces then I am equally skeptical, and any attempt would of course invite every Islamic nation in the region to then attack Israel
Israel has a modern, well trained and will equipped army, and they would be facing a fraction of the forces that attacked them in (for example) the Yom Kipper war.
We might one day, I suppose, see Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities but that's quite separate from the war with Hamas or, indeed, with Hezbollah.
Is it possible the IDF is a bit of a paper tiger? They can beat the shit ouf of Palestinian kids cowering in cellars or hiding in olive groves, but they're not so good against actual fighters?
I dunno. I genuinely dunno. But Israel's last biggish war was Hezbollah in 2006 and that was widely regarded as a draw
Invading is hard, as Russia has discovered.
The idea that even tens of thousands of Hezbollah/Lebanon troops could successfully invade Israel is utterly ridiculous.
A great way to end.
A raid, with lots of Israeli dead, of course they can do that. But they can't actually defeat Israel militarily, just as Ukraine can't invade Russia and march to the gates of Moscow.
Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets (and God knows what else - eg drones- if this spectacular has been long in the planning)
It is commonly thought that an all out assault with those rockets would overwhelm Iron Dome. So then Israel has to invade Lebanon to stop the missiles. Or rely on the US to attack Iran and Lebanon on its behalf. Complicated
I agree a frontal Hezbollah invasion of Israel would be much more difficult and highly unlikely to succeed. Jews would fight for every inch of their nation. So they probably won't try that
"Is America really going to wipe out Tehran to save Nazareth?"
No of course Israel is not going to be overrun, and Jerusalem will not be reconquered by Hamas/Hezbollah
But there are ways of inflicting a stinging defeat on Israel without any of that. Make large parts of Israel almost uninhabitable by the constant threat of attack from Gaza and Lebanon - and maybe from within, from the West Bank and Israeli Arabs
Thereby slowly but surely corrode the raison d'etre of Israel: as the ultimate safe place for Jews
Come on.
No offence, but I would not want you anywhere near running a military campaign.