New mortgage deal agreed. 2 year fix (as broker recommends avoiding 5 year deals as not enough of a discount vs risk of rates dropping in 2 years). £250 extra a month. Yay!
I'm sure recommending 2 year deals over 5 year ones has nothing to do with his or her commission fees!
Politico.com - Opinion | Why Nikki Haley Might Become Donald Trump’s Biggest Rival There’s a reason she might eclipse Ron DeSantis.
Rich Lowry is a contributing writer for POLITICO Magazine and the editor-in-chief of the National Review, a conservative news and opinion publication.
Nikki Haley isn’t exactly sweeping all before her, but she’s had a sustained rise that marks one of the major events in a presidential primary race with few new dynamics.
She’s tied with Ron DeSantis for second in Iowa, and is in second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina. She’s still not remotely close to Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican contest, but to have caught or overtaken DeSantis — given the buzz that the Florida governor had earlier in the year — is an accomplishment in itself.
In New Hampshire, a St. Anselm poll in March had Trump at 42 percent, DeSantis at 29 and Haley at 4. The latest USA Today poll in the state had Trump at 49 percent, Haley at 19 and DeSantis at 10.
Now, this may be inconsequential shuffling among no-hope candidates; it certainly is if Trump stays at roughly 50 percent. Worse, Haley eclipsing DeSantis may mean a candidate lacking broad-enough appeal in the party to win a majority is nudging aside the candidate with, in theory, the right profile to get to 50 percent plus 1.
That said, rising is better than falling, and running a campaign that has shown results is better than running one that hasn’t. Why has she ascended and what does it mean?
Haley has been helped immeasurably by the debates, where she’s been cogent, well-informed and combative. She’s tapped into the tough and unapologetic Thatcherite model of what a female politician should be that’s still so resonant for Republicans.
There was a tendency to pair her at the outset of the race with Sen. Tim Scott, a fellow South Carolinian who also has a more conventional Republican message. Scott, though, has been outworked and outperformed by the former governor. . . .
The DeSantis approach to the race has been inside-out — establish a spot in the center of the MAGA-ish Republican Party, and expand on both edges, winning enough Trump-friendly and Trump-skeptical voters to get to a winning plurality or a majority.
The Haley approach has been outside-in — establish dominance among the Trump-skeptical wing of the party and then use that strength to eat into soft Trump supporters willing to give her a look as she rises. . . .
One problem, though, is that DeSantis has always been subject to two different pincer movements — from above and below, and from MAGA and non-MAGA.
From above, because Trump has attacked him more than anyone else, and from below, because everyone else has had an incentive to try to overtake him for second place. . . .
There's no chance of Haley going bad and accepting VP to Trump, is there?
If a President can't serve from prison, it may be a good way of getting the top job. I am unaware of the rules on that - maybe as there is not precedent there aren't any.
Otherwise, she has certainly emerged as the sane future of her party and would be a good choice for them in four years if she does not make it this time.
There is nothing that explicitly rules out a president serving from prison. The founding fathers would have assumed that the impeachment process would take care of that, if the president didn't resign.
I think there are at least some state-level laws on whether a jailbird felon can be nominated in the primaries but you'd have to go through each state's laws to check that out (and some of the primaries will probably be over by the time the trials end anyway, though might have a bearing for the general election nominations).
Do you think Dominic Cummings COULDN'T be mentally unwell?
What I find staggering about Cummings is that someone with such a staggeringly unimpressive CV could be seen as some kind of strategic genius and put into such a position of power. Johnson's regime really was like some sort of bizarre version of "Trading Places" where sensible politicians and civil servants are replaced with random idiots who have no experience of anything.
The relentless self-confidence of people from the private school-Oxbridge pipeline and the readiness of others from the same background to employ them over more qualified people is a wonder to behold.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Spring has already arrived. We have blossom on the apple tree in our garden.
Sunak's vision is incoherent, inconsistent and some of it is just plain weird and seem to be personal obsessions. Just because he's doing what he'd like (extra maths, no fags, devastating transport projects and delivering endless punishment beatings on tax) doesn't mean he's bravely rebelling against a 30-year consensus. The messages don't marry up at all. His political skills are poor and he doesn't know how to deal with any challenge to it.
That said, he does seem vaguely good at brokering international deals, be that the Windsor agreement, TPP, or the AI safety summit, and maintaining market confidence, but there's no real vision there that anyone can understand but him - and I'm not sure he knows either, which makes people simply suspect he's just a careerist.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
We can all whinge about it endlessly for the next 4 months, or we can embrace it for what it is and make the best of it?
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
You've got to live in the moment. Appreciate and make the most of what this time of year brings. Eg I change from lager to bitter once November comes. Rather than being outside in the warm sun with an Estrella as I would have been just a few weeks ago, or would be now if I were in Florida or Tenerife, I sit inside with a pint of Old Wallop.
Yeah, but your local in Belsize Park has a professional indoor ski slope at the back, under the lebanese cedar sauna complex, not all of us are that lucky
Cept it doesn't. It's a simple place. Its strongest point is exclusivity. Now Autumn's here it appears at dusk when the wind drops and only to those who know exactly where to be standing at that moment. Few do.
Politico.com - Opinion | Why Nikki Haley Might Become Donald Trump’s Biggest Rival There’s a reason she might eclipse Ron DeSantis.
Rich Lowry is a contributing writer for POLITICO Magazine and the editor-in-chief of the National Review, a conservative news and opinion publication.
Nikki Haley isn’t exactly sweeping all before her, but she’s had a sustained rise that marks one of the major events in a presidential primary race with few new dynamics.
She’s tied with Ron DeSantis for second in Iowa, and is in second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina. She’s still not remotely close to Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican contest, but to have caught or overtaken DeSantis — given the buzz that the Florida governor had earlier in the year — is an accomplishment in itself.
In New Hampshire, a St. Anselm poll in March had Trump at 42 percent, DeSantis at 29 and Haley at 4. The latest USA Today poll in the state had Trump at 49 percent, Haley at 19 and DeSantis at 10.
Now, this may be inconsequential shuffling among no-hope candidates; it certainly is if Trump stays at roughly 50 percent. Worse, Haley eclipsing DeSantis may mean a candidate lacking broad-enough appeal in the party to win a majority is nudging aside the candidate with, in theory, the right profile to get to 50 percent plus 1.
That said, rising is better than falling, and running a campaign that has shown results is better than running one that hasn’t. Why has she ascended and what does it mean?
Haley has been helped immeasurably by the debates, where she’s been cogent, well-informed and combative. She’s tapped into the tough and unapologetic Thatcherite model of what a female politician should be that’s still so resonant for Republicans.
There was a tendency to pair her at the outset of the race with Sen. Tim Scott, a fellow South Carolinian who also has a more conventional Republican message. Scott, though, has been outworked and outperformed by the former governor. . . .
The DeSantis approach to the race has been inside-out — establish a spot in the center of the MAGA-ish Republican Party, and expand on both edges, winning enough Trump-friendly and Trump-skeptical voters to get to a winning plurality or a majority.
The Haley approach has been outside-in — establish dominance among the Trump-skeptical wing of the party and then use that strength to eat into soft Trump supporters willing to give her a look as she rises. . . .
One problem, though, is that DeSantis has always been subject to two different pincer movements — from above and below, and from MAGA and non-MAGA.
From above, because Trump has attacked him more than anyone else, and from below, because everyone else has had an incentive to try to overtake him for second place. . . .
There's no chance of Haley going bad and accepting VP to Trump, is there?
If a President can't serve from prison, it may be a good way of getting the top job. I am unaware of the rules on that - maybe as there is not precedent there aren't any.
Otherwise, she has certainly emerged as the sane future of her party and would be a good choice for them in four years if she does not make it this time.
There is nothing that explicitly rules out a president serving from prison. The founding fathers would have assumed that the impeachment process would take care of that, if the president didn't resign.
I think there are at least some state-level laws on whether a jailbird felon can be nominated in the primaries but you'd have to go through each state's laws to check that out (and some of the primaries will probably be over by the time the trials end anyway, though might have a bearing for the general election nominations).
It would be apt in a sense. Gangsters often continue to run their 'manor' from inside.
A quick look at the figures shows that if 11% of Tory 2019 voters switched direct to Labour, then 57 seats would change hands between the two parties in England and Wales. If the 7% who are listed as will not vote are factored in, this increases to 75. In addition, the Tories would lose a further 11 seats to the LDs based just on the losses to Labour.
This would then leave the Tories with 273 and Labour on 259 in E&W alone - and this is the best case scenario for the Tories. In practice, based on these figures, even if all the Tory 2019 'Don't knows', Reform voters and others come home (not going to happen) they will still lose a swathe of seats to Labour and the LibDems due to tactical voting.
Throw in maybe 25 gains in Scotland and far from being a chimera, this poll suggests a Labour majority is baled in.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
We can all whinge about it endlessly for the next 4 months, or we can embrace it for what it is and make the best of it?
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
Only about 10% of 1992 Tories switched to Labour in 1997 and look how that worked out.
The Labour vote increased by 2m from 1992-7, some of which was LD tactical voting (the LD vote actually fell over the two elections, despite the LDs more than doubling their number of MPs).
By contrast, the Tory vote fell by fully 5m. Many 1992 Tories simply sat out the Blair landslide, content to watch it happen.
Given that Corbyn's gone, Brexit's done, Starmer's inoffensive and the Tories' rating is not so much down the toilet as through the sewage works and out into the river, it's easy to see why many 2019 Tories - and especially their first-time voters and those voting tactically to keep Labour out - could well simply abstain. I'd predict that many of that 23% DK will end up as DNV (and remember that for those who do return to the Tory fold, there are balancing 2019 Labour voters who are currently DK / LD / Grn who are, IMO, at least as likely to return, though not all will there either).
In other words, the dynamic that worked so strongly to Labour's favour is highly likely to repeat itself, albeit at lower levels of enthusiasm on both sides - as if we jump straight from 1992 to 2001.
The issue isn't how many 2019 Tory voters switch from the Tories to Labour it's how many more tory voters decide that it's not worth the hassle to go out and vote on a wet October evening...
It's both.
And I expect it'll be a November evening. October would mean cancelling the conferences (or the Tory one anyway), and that's the only reliably decent chance Sunak or his successor will have to set the narrative to their favour.
Or a cold evening in January. With snow either present or probable over much of the land. I’d say I was glad I’ve got a postal vote if the postal service round here wasn’t so crap.
No, I think stringing it out to January would look hopelessly lacking in self-confidence for the Tories once parliament returned in October (to do what?), and an election over Xmas and the New Year would piss off voters and journalists - not to mention activists - immensely.
Indeed. There is zero chance the election will be in January, simply not going to happen.
I expect it will be October 24, the last week before the clocks go back. I suppose they could hold it on 31 October, but what's the point going into GMT for the sake of one more week. There's an outside chance of September.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
We can all whinge about it endlessly for the next 4 months, or we can embrace it for what it is and make the best of it?
Oh no, not Brexit again.
If only Brexit was 4 months, or is that the extra long queue to get through the airport perhaps?
Only about 10% of 1992 Tories switched to Labour in 1997 and look how that worked out.
The Labour vote increased by 2m from 1992-7, some of which was LD tactical voting (the LD vote actually fell over the two elections, despite the LDs more than doubling their number of MPs).
By contrast, the Tory vote fell by fully 5m. Many 1992 Tories simply sat out the Blair landslide, content to watch it happen.
Given that Corbyn's gone, Brexit's done, Starmer's inoffensive and the Tories' rating is not so much down the toilet as through the sewage works and out into the river, it's easy to see why many 2019 Tories - and especially their first-time voters and those voting tactically to keep Labour out - could well simply abstain. I'd predict that many of that 23% DK will end up as DNV (and remember that for those who do return to the Tory fold, there are balancing 2019 Labour voters who are currently DK / LD / Grn who are, IMO, at least as likely to return, though not all will there either).
In other words, the dynamic that worked so strongly to Labour's favour is highly likely to repeat itself, albeit at lower levels of enthusiasm on both sides - as if we jump straight from 1992 to 2001.
The issue isn't how many 2019 Tory voters switch from the Tories to Labour it's how many more tory voters decide that it's not worth the hassle to go out and vote on a wet October evening...
It's both.
And I expect it'll be a November evening. October would mean cancelling the conferences (or the Tory one anyway), and that's the only reliably decent chance Sunak or his successor will have to set the narrative to their favour.
Or a cold evening in January. With snow either present or probable over much of the land. I’d say I was glad I’ve got a postal vote if the postal service round here wasn’t so crap.
No, I think stringing it out to January would look hopelessly lacking in self-confidence for the Tories once parliament returned in October (to do what?), and an election over Xmas and the New Year would piss off voters and journalists - not to mention activists - immensely.
Indeed. There is zero chance the election will be in January, simply not going to happen.
I expect it will be October 24, the last week before the clocks go back. I suppose they could hold it on 31 October, but what's the point going into GMT for the sake of one more week. There's an outside chance of September.
But for my money 24 October has to be favourite.
The point is the springboard of the conference. Nov 14th.
Sunak's vision is incoherent, inconsistent and some of it is just plain weird and seem to be personal obsessions. Just because he's doing what he'd like (extra maths, no fags, devastating transport projects and delivering endless punishment beatings on tax) doesn't mean he's bravely rebelling against a 30-year consensus. The messages don't marry up at all. His political skills are poor and he doesn't know how to deal with any challenge to it.
That said, he does seem vaguely good at brokering international deals, be that the Windsor agreement, TPP, or the AI safety summit, and maintaining market confidence, but there's no real vision there that anyone can understand but him - and I'm not sure he knows either, which makes people simply suspect he's just a careerist.
Which he might well be.
There is a coherent vision- broadly that life would be a lot better if we were all techbros living in the American Sunbelt. California at a pinch (bit too woke, bit too much tax).
It's not a practical vision, but it makes sense of everything he wants to happen. Politically, his problem is that an impossible vision is almost as pointless as no vision at all.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
It’s the dreaded rundown to Christmas too…
I enjoy Christmas, I am not a Scrooge. But I don’t like the fact that at this time of year you have to juggle work, with shit weather, with cold and flu season, and on top of all that, all the organisation for the busiest social time of the year.
Give me January any day. At least then you’re just coping with the work and the shit weather.
I quite enjoy in a hatey way the damp darkness and shitness. It is seasonal and I like weather and moods to be seasonal. In recent years we seem to have developed a proper rainy season from mid October to late November, something we can really moan about.
It's the time of year to sit in pubs in the gloaming of late Sunday afternoon with Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street playing, or possibly David Gray's Babylon, and to ponder on the passing of time. Which reminds me it must be a full 12 months since I posted on that topic here on PB.
100% pubs are at their very best when the cold rain is pouring down outside and there's a rich ale from a welcoming barmaid on the bar. Weather moaning is a bit silly – we live in a northerly climate and therefore have seasons. Those who prefer monotonous blue skies year round are welcome to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. For me, it would be Hell on Earth.
Sub-7% of 2019 Tory voters are planning to vote LibDem?
That's not great news for the LDs if true, given that their only other significant source of voters would be "people who voted for Corbyn in 2019".
The Lib Dems don't need, and (virtually) won't get anyone who voted Tory in the red wall switching to them. Where they need them is in about 40 target seats mainly in the south of England. Overall, evidence from elections suggest they are picking up switchers where they need them and not where they don't.
Having said that, clearly the base poll (9%) is poor for them if they want to be making a serious number of gains. Most polls show them a shade higher but, frankly, they'd prefer to be polling in the teens and, with a handful of exceptions, aren't.
Only about 10% of 1992 Tories switched to Labour in 1997 and look how that worked out.
The Labour vote increased by 2m from 1992-7, some of which was LD tactical voting (the LD vote actually fell over the two elections, despite the LDs more than doubling their number of MPs).
By contrast, the Tory vote fell by fully 5m. Many 1992 Tories simply sat out the Blair landslide, content to watch it happen.
Given that Corbyn's gone, Brexit's done, Starmer's inoffensive and the Tories' rating is not so much down the toilet as through the sewage works and out into the river, it's easy to see why many 2019 Tories - and especially their first-time voters and those voting tactically to keep Labour out - could well simply abstain. I'd predict that many of that 23% DK will end up as DNV (and remember that for those who do return to the Tory fold, there are balancing 2019 Labour voters who are currently DK / LD / Grn who are, IMO, at least as likely to return, though not all will there either).
In other words, the dynamic that worked so strongly to Labour's favour is highly likely to repeat itself, albeit at lower levels of enthusiasm on both sides - as if we jump straight from 1992 to 2001.
The issue isn't how many 2019 Tory voters switch from the Tories to Labour it's how many more tory voters decide that it's not worth the hassle to go out and vote on a wet October evening...
It's both.
And I expect it'll be a November evening. October would mean cancelling the conferences (or the Tory one anyway), and that's the only reliably decent chance Sunak or his successor will have to set the narrative to their favour.
Or a cold evening in January. With snow either present or probable over much of the land. I’d say I was glad I’ve got a postal vote if the postal service round here wasn’t so crap.
No, I think stringing it out to January would look hopelessly lacking in self-confidence for the Tories once parliament returned in October (to do what?), and an election over Xmas and the New Year would piss off voters and journalists - not to mention activists - immensely.
Indeed. There is zero chance the election will be in January, simply not going to happen.
I expect it will be October 24, the last week before the clocks go back. I suppose they could hold it on 31 October, but what's the point going into GMT for the sake of one more week. There's an outside chance of September.
But for my money 24 October has to be favourite.
The point is the springboard of the conference. Nov 14th.
That assumes that the Conservatives can be confident that a conference will improve their standing with the public. After this year, that's not a given.
(My guess is that the Conservatives do "best" in Spring 2024. They won't go then, in case something positive turns up. Autumn 2024 is accepting defeat. January 2025 would be mad, but maybe they are mad.)
A quick look at the figures shows that if 11% of Tory 2019 voters switched direct to Labour, then 57 seats would change hands between the two parties in England and Wales. If the 7% who are listed as will not vote are factored in, this increases to 75. In addition, the Tories would lose a further 11 seats to the LDs based just on the losses to Labour.
This would then leave the Tories with 273 and Labour on 259 in E&W alone - and this is the best case scenario for the Tories. In practice, based on these figures, even if all the Tory 2019 'Don't knows', Reform voters and others come home (not going to happen) they will still lose a swathe of seats to Labour and the LibDems due to tactical voting.
Throw in maybe 25 gains in Scotland and far from being a chimera, this poll suggests a Labour majority is baled in.
I've done a similar but simpler analysis of best case for the Tories. I've assumed all the 23% DKs actually vote Tory making 63% of the 2019 Tories. I've also assumed that any tactical voting is already "baked in" to the 2019 figures.
This gives the Tories 30% share to Labour's 40% share with Labour on a majority of 78.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
It’s the dreaded rundown to Christmas too…
I enjoy Christmas, I am not a Scrooge. But I don’t like the fact that at this time of year you have to juggle work, with shit weather, with cold and flu season, and on top of all that, all the organisation for the busiest social time of the year.
Give me January any day. At least then you’re just coping with the work and the shit weather.
I quite enjoy in a hatey way the damp darkness and shitness. It is seasonal and I like weather and moods to be seasonal. In recent years we seem to have developed a proper rainy season from mid October to late November, something we can really moan about.
It's the time of year to sit in pubs in the gloaming of late Sunday afternoon with Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street playing, or possibly David Gray's Babylon, and to ponder on the passing of time. Which reminds me it must be a full 12 months since I posted on that topic here on PB.
100% pubs are at their very best when the cold rain is pouring down outside and there's a rich ale from a welcoming barmaid on the bar. Weather moaning is a bit silly – we live in a northerly climate and therefore have seasons. Those who prefer monotonous blue skies year round are welcome to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. For me, it would be Hell on Earth.
Me too. It’s almost a real life guilty secret of mine that I look forward to the end of summer/enjoy the coziness of autumn
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
We can all whinge about it endlessly for the next 4 months, or we can embrace it for what it is and make the best of it?
That would be if it’s a March general election. Otherwise we might be whingeing for 12 months.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
It’s the dreaded rundown to Christmas too…
I enjoy Christmas, I am not a Scrooge. But I don’t like the fact that at this time of year you have to juggle work, with shit weather, with cold and flu season, and on top of all that, all the organisation for the busiest social time of the year.
Give me January any day. At least then you’re just coping with the work and the shit weather.
I quite enjoy in a hatey way the damp darkness and shitness. It is seasonal and I like weather and moods to be seasonal. In recent years we seem to have developed a proper rainy season from mid October to late November, something we can really moan about.
It's the time of year to sit in pubs in the gloaming of late Sunday afternoon with Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street playing, or possibly David Gray's Babylon, and to ponder on the passing of time. Which reminds me it must be a full 12 months since I posted on that topic here on PB.
100% pubs are at their very best when the cold rain is pouring down outside and there's a rich ale from a welcoming barmaid on the bar. Weather moaning is a bit silly – we live in a northerly climate and therefore have seasons. Those who prefer monotonous blue skies year round are welcome to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. For me, it would be Hell on Earth.
We have joy we have fun we have seasons not just sun.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
We can all whinge about it endlessly for the next 4 months, or we can embrace it for what it is and make the best of it?
Oh no, not Brexit again.
If only Brexit was 4 months, or is that the extra long queue to get through the airport perhaps?
On topic,as I often say, voters jumping between the two main parties are rarities. The whole notion of swing is misguided. Differential turnout is what wins and loses elections.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Sorry to hear that. My sympathies.
My niece is a leap year baby too, celebrating her 4th real birthday next February.
Watching Pink Floyd’sThe Wall, with commentary by Roger Waters & Gerald Scarfe; they talk of being worried that the fascist insignia etc that the protagonist wears at the end might inspire copycats. Just struck me that the ‘arms crossed’ gesture he gives is now what West Ham fans do for ‘Hammers’
Anyone know what the proportion of people is who lie (or forget) in polls about who they voted for last time?
Or is that adjusted for?
I seem to recall back in 1996/7 pollsters were finding far fewer people saying they voted Tory in 1992 than actually did.
Hey @TimS! What happened to the Storm Ciaran "Stink Bomb" or whatever it's called??
It performed pretty much exactly as forecast. The track was a little South of what some models were predicting so Western France, the South West and the Channel Is got the worst of it.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
It’s the dreaded rundown to Christmas too…
I enjoy Christmas, I am not a Scrooge. But I don’t like the fact that at this time of year you have to juggle work, with shit weather, with cold and flu season, and on top of all that, all the organisation for the busiest social time of the year.
Give me January any day. At least then you’re just coping with the work and the shit weather.
I quite enjoy in a hatey way the damp darkness and shitness. It is seasonal and I like weather and moods to be seasonal. In recent years we seem to have developed a proper rainy season from mid October to late November, something we can really moan about.
It's the time of year to sit in pubs in the gloaming of late Sunday afternoon with Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street playing, or possibly David Gray's Babylon, and to ponder on the passing of time. Which reminds me it must be a full 12 months since I posted on that topic here on PB.
100% pubs are at their very best when the cold rain is pouring down outside and there's a rich ale from a welcoming barmaid on the bar. Weather moaning is a bit silly – we live in a northerly climate and therefore have seasons. Those who prefer monotonous blue skies year round are welcome to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. For me, it would be Hell on Earth.
Me too. It’s almost a real life guilty secret of mine that I look forward to the end of summer/enjoy the coziness of autumn
Still much prefer spring and summer but I’ve made my peace with autumn in middle age.
On topic,as I often say, voters jumping between the two main parties are rarities. The whole notion of swing is misguided. Differential turnout is what wins and loses elections.
But the ones who do, the genuine swingers, they're like away points, they count double. If you want to maximise your impact on the election scene that's what you need to do. Don't stay at home, get out there, and swing.
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
Only about 10% of 1992 Tories switched to Labour in 1997 and look how that worked out.
The Labour vote increased by 2m from 1992-7, some of which was LD tactical voting (the LD vote actually fell over the two elections, despite the LDs more than doubling their number of MPs).
By contrast, the Tory vote fell by fully 5m. Many 1992 Tories simply sat out the Blair landslide, content to watch it happen.
Given that Corbyn's gone, Brexit's done, Starmer's inoffensive and the Tories' rating is not so much down the toilet as through the sewage works and out into the river, it's easy to see why many 2019 Tories - and especially their first-time voters and those voting tactically to keep Labour out - could well simply abstain. I'd predict that many of that 23% DK will end up as DNV (and remember that for those who do return to the Tory fold, there are balancing 2019 Labour voters who are currently DK / LD / Grn who are, IMO, at least as likely to return, though not all will there either).
In other words, the dynamic that worked so strongly to Labour's favour is highly likely to repeat itself, albeit at lower levels of enthusiasm on both sides - as if we jump straight from 1992 to 2001.
The issue isn't how many 2019 Tory voters switch from the Tories to Labour it's how many more tory voters decide that it's not worth the hassle to go out and vote on a wet October evening...
It's both.
And I expect it'll be a November evening. October would mean cancelling the conferences (or the Tory one anyway), and that's the only reliably decent chance Sunak or his successor will have to set the narrative to their favour.
Or a cold evening in January. With snow either present or probable over much of the land. I’d say I was glad I’ve got a postal vote if the postal service round here wasn’t so crap.
No, I think stringing it out to January would look hopelessly lacking in self-confidence for the Tories once parliament returned in October (to do what?), and an election over Xmas and the New Year would piss off voters and journalists - not to mention activists - immensely.
Indeed. There is zero chance the election will be in January, simply not going to happen.
I expect it will be October 24, the last week before the clocks go back. I suppose they could hold it on 31 October, but what's the point going into GMT for the sake of one more week. There's an outside chance of September.
But for my money 24 October has to be favourite.
The point is the springboard of the conference. Nov 14th.
Sunak might want to avoid a repeat of the last Tory conference.
So this ‘new’ Beatles track is the ultimate anti-climax?
I thought it was okay.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
It was enough to get both BBC News and Sky News jizzing themselves into a frenzy. I suppose there isn't much news to report on today.
November. Even the WORD is depressing. Numb, nothing, nil, nada, nullity, nnnoooo, Non non non, nicht, nein, nyet, NO, Nooooooovemmmmberrr. BRRRRRRRR
I think the only choice left to me is to finally get away somewhere. Perhaps somewhere sunny. I can't bear this darkness any more
Quite right, it's a shit month.
No sun - no moon! No morn - no noon - No dawn - no dusk - no proper time of day - No sky - no earthly view - No distance looking blue - No road - no street - no 't'other side the way' - No end to any Row - No indications where the Crescents go - No top to any steeple - No recognitions of familiar people - No courtesies for showing 'em - No knowing 'em - No travelling at all - no locomotion, No inkling of the way - no notion - 'No go' - by land or ocean - No mail - no post - No news from any foreign coast - No Park - no Ring - no afternoon gentility - No company - no nobility - No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease, No comfortable feel in any member - No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees, No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds, - November!
New mortgage deal agreed. 2 year fix (as broker recommends avoiding 5 year deals as not enough of a discount vs risk of rates dropping in 2 years). £250 extra a month. Yay!
What rate did you get. My second one is up soon and looking like a fair jump to about 6% or so , not huge money wise as circa £100 a month.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
It’s the dreaded rundown to Christmas too…
I enjoy Christmas, I am not a Scrooge. But I don’t like the fact that at this time of year you have to juggle work, with shit weather, with cold and flu season, and on top of all that, all the organisation for the busiest social time of the year.
Give me January any day. At least then you’re just coping with the work and the shit weather.
I quite enjoy in a hatey way the damp darkness and shitness. It is seasonal and I like weather and moods to be seasonal. In recent years we seem to have developed a proper rainy season from mid October to late November, something we can really moan about.
It's the time of year to sit in pubs in the gloaming of late Sunday afternoon with Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street playing, or possibly David Gray's Babylon, and to ponder on the passing of time. Which reminds me it must be a full 12 months since I posted on that topic here on PB.
100% pubs are at their very best when the cold rain is pouring down outside and there's a rich ale from a welcoming barmaid on the bar. Weather moaning is a bit silly – we live in a northerly climate and therefore have seasons. Those who prefer monotonous blue skies year round are welcome to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. For me, it would be Hell on Earth.
We have joy we have fun we have seasons not just without sun.
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
If Scotland is in dire straights it needs some local heroes.
Sub-7% of 2019 Tory voters are planning to vote LibDem?
That's not great news for the LDs if true, given that their only other significant source of voters would be "people who voted for Corbyn in 2019".
People who voted for Corbyn in 2019 but can't stand Starmer would vote Green or TUSC not LD.
At general election level the main switchers the LDs are picking up, if any, are Remain Tories who held their noses and voted Tory in 2019 to keep out Corbyn but don't mind Starmer however still find Labour too left for them
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
If Scotland is in dire straights it needs some local heroes.
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
If Scotland is in dire straights it needs some local heroes.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
It’s the dreaded rundown to Christmas too…
I enjoy Christmas, I am not a Scrooge. But I don’t like the fact that at this time of year you have to juggle work, with shit weather, with cold and flu season, and on top of all that, all the organisation for the busiest social time of the year.
Give me January any day. At least then you’re just coping with the work and the shit weather.
I quite enjoy in a hatey way the damp darkness and shitness. It is seasonal and I like weather and moods to be seasonal. In recent years we seem to have developed a proper rainy season from mid October to late November, something we can really moan about.
It's the time of year to sit in pubs in the gloaming of late Sunday afternoon with Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street playing, or possibly David Gray's Babylon, and to ponder on the passing of time. Which reminds me it must be a full 12 months since I posted on that topic here on PB.
100% pubs are at their very best when the cold rain is pouring down outside and there's a rich ale from a welcoming barmaid on the bar. Weather moaning is a bit silly – we live in a northerly climate and therefore have seasons. Those who prefer monotonous blue skies year round are welcome to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. For me, it would be Hell on Earth.
Actually, due to having SAD - I have made adjustments to my life, and lifestyle, that can make winter tolerable
The key - from day 1 of the clocks going back - is to get as much daylight as possible. Even if it's grey and frigid: get outside, on that first evening. Also, enjoy winter clothes. Seriously. It makes a difference, buy a nice stylish coat and wear it on that first day: looking cool and slightly Germanic crossed with Scottish and Russian. Also, find the snuggliest possible pub and make it your home-from-home even on that first evening, with a favourite chair, a favourite ale, a favourite line of chat about the footie, by the flickering fire
Then, on day two, you get on a fucking plane and you fuck off to Bangkok and you bang a load of 22 year old go-go dancers and you come back in mid March. Sorted
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
FWIW I have met some hardcore Jewish Settler types
They can be deeply unpleasant. Filled with a poper Messianic zeal, replete with religious self belief, suffused with their own racial supremacy - actual proper cold-eyed Nazis - the mirror image of the Islamists
It s a toxic mix in a volatile place. Like using a naked flame to illuminate a room full of gunpowder
There is a very interesting and sad review by David Shulman in October's edition of the NY Review of Books of a book by Nathan Thrall - "A Day in the Life of Abed Salam: Anatomy of a Jerusalem Tragedy". It is about a bus with Palestinian children which got involved in an accident near Ramallah. The accident was unfortunate but the book explains how the rescue services were hampered in their help by all the various checkpoints etc in place in the West Bank. The author writes about one of the families involved and paints a grim picture of how badly treated Palestinians in the West Bank are - by the settlers and by every aspect of the Israeli state. It is awful, utterly awful.
Well worth reading.
The treatment of the Palestinians in the West Bank is in some ways so very much worse than what is happening in Gaza. It is awful on a human level; it kills off any prospect of a viable Palestinian state; and it utterly undermines Israel's claim to be democratic and liberal, 2 adjectives that cannot be applied to its behaviour in the West Bank.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Maybe Rishi will produce a surprise election for your 20th birthday?
On the header - it really is just as well that a couple of polling orgs are factoring in the 2019 Con Don't Knows as Shy Tories and hence producing the revelation that the massive Lab polling lead becomes - a slightly less massive polling lead.
For those worried about this just knock 6 or 7% off the lead of the other polling companies and you are about there. Or just look at the smallest polling lead as a guide if you prefer. I doubt you will spot a chimera though.
Channel 4 News excellent as always. A woman from the hospital in Gaza was more impressive than any single spokeswoman I have seen on any side. Matt Frei is by a distance the best reporter in the area and no histrionics or showmanship which makes him unique
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Get well soon G
Thanks Malc
My wife's covid has been worse than her two other previous experiences and the irony is we both had our 7th covid vaccine plus flu just 2 weeks before
My DVT is quite extensive and they have discovered other issues which need managing but I do have an excellent dedicated hospital team plus medical centre
And we are so grateful for all our blessings, not least when you see what is going on in the middle east
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Get well soon G
Thanks Malc
My wife's covid has been worse than her two other previous experiences and the irony is we both had our 7th covid vaccine plus flu just 2 weeks before
My DVT is quite extensive and they have discovered other issues which need managing but I do have an excellent dedicated hospital team plus medical centre
And we are so grateful for all our blessings, not least when you see what is going on in the middle east
Big G, hang in there and it will all work out. Wishing you a speedy recovery.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Maybe Rishi will produce a surprise election for your 20th birthday?
Completely off-topic (sorry!) - but wondering if any one can help.
I've moved to a new apartment building with its own completely new Postcode (registered with the post-office in July 23). Ir's valid at the Post Office therefore as a mailing address. Postcode is failing to appear either in Google Maps or Apple Maps, and very few companies recognise it in their databases- which is a pain for insurance, deliveries and even would you believe it registering to vote and Council Tax (Local Council don't even recognise the Postcode!!)
I've badgered Apple and Google Maps reporting to add the new address without any luck. How long do new Postcodes take to be recognised?
I dunno. But my school has a completely separate Primary School right next door. But with totally different entrances. One on a Main road. The other on a winding, mazy estate with no obvious direct connecting road. (You basically have to drive right the way around the estate to the one entrance). Then take a series of turns, avoiding cul-de-sacs to find the only correct route through). The two sites have been transposed on Google Maps for years. Despite numerous complaints. All deliveries end up at the wrong entrances. It's almost impossible to give oral directions from one site to the other by road. There have been numerous complaints.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Sorry to hear of your health issues. Good to see you posting again.
Best wishes to you and yours. Do keep checking in and I hope the appetite for the cut and thrust of PB returns soon!!
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Get well soon G
Thanks Malc
My wife's covid has been worse than her two other previous experiences and the irony is we both had our 7th covid vaccine plus flu just 2 weeks before
My DVT is quite extensive and they have discovered other issues which need managing but I do have an excellent dedicated hospital team plus medical centre
And we are so grateful for all our blessings, not least when you see what is going on in the middle east
Channel 4 News excellent as always. A woman from the hospital in Gaza was more impressive than any single spokeswoman I have seen on any side. Matt Frei is by a distance the best reporter in the area and no histrionics or showmanship which makes him unique
I remember Matt Frei when he was BBC's guy in Washington and Europe (over ten years ago now!). If my swiss-cheese memory is worth anything, his Berlin documentary was good. It's not on iPlayer but it is on YouTube. Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hbq1KgDZ3E
A quick look at the figures shows that if 11% of Tory 2019 voters switched direct to Labour, then 57 seats would change hands between the two parties in England and Wales. If the 7% who are listed as will not vote are factored in, this increases to 75. In addition, the Tories would lose a further 11 seats to the LDs based just on the losses to Labour.
This would then leave the Tories with 273 and Labour on 259 in E&W alone - and this is the best case scenario for the Tories. In practice, based on these figures, even if all the Tory 2019 'Don't knows', Reform voters and others come home (not going to happen) they will still lose a swathe of seats to Labour and the LibDems due to tactical voting.
Throw in maybe 25 gains in Scotland and far from being a chimera, this poll suggests a Labour majority is baled in.
I've done a similar but simpler analysis of best case for the Tories. I've assumed all the 23% DKs actually vote Tory making 63% of the 2019 Tories. I've also assumed that any tactical voting is already "baked in" to the 2019 figures.
This gives the Tories 30% share to Labour's 40% share with Labour on a majority of 78.
I think this is going to be very close to the mark based on what we are seeing, and have seen over a number of months. Any variation is likely to be on the downside for the Tories - as you have highlighted, your figures assume all 23% DKs not only vote , but vote Tory. The LibDem figure may end up higher as their support is very focussed but, set against that, of the 80 seats where they are second to to the Tories, they only have 22 where they are less than 10k behind.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
It’s the dreaded rundown to Christmas too…
I enjoy Christmas, I am not a Scrooge. But I don’t like the fact that at this time of year you have to juggle work, with shit weather, with cold and flu season, and on top of all that, all the organisation for the busiest social time of the year.
Give me January any day. At least then you’re just coping with the work and the shit weather.
I quite enjoy in a hatey way the damp darkness and shitness. It is seasonal and I like weather and moods to be seasonal. In recent years we seem to have developed a proper rainy season from mid October to late November, something we can really moan about.
It's the time of year to sit in pubs in the gloaming of late Sunday afternoon with Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street playing, or possibly David Gray's Babylon, and to ponder on the passing of time. Which reminds me it must be a full 12 months since I posted on that topic here on PB.
100% pubs are at their very best when the cold rain is pouring down outside and there's a rich ale from a welcoming barmaid on the bar. Weather moaning is a bit silly – we live in a northerly climate and therefore have seasons. Those who prefer monotonous blue skies year round are welcome to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. For me, it would be Hell on Earth.
Actually, due to having SAD - I have made adjustments to my life, and lifestyle, that can make winter tolerable
The key - from day 1 of the clocks going back - is to get as much daylight as possible. Even if it's grey and frigid: get outside, on that first evening. Also, enjoy winter clothes. Seriously. It makes a difference, buy a nice stylish coat and wear it on that first day: looking cool and slightly Germanic crossed with Scottish and Russian. Also, find the snuggliest possible pub and make it your home-from-home even on that first evening, with a favourite chair, a favourite ale, a favourite line of chat about the footie, by the flickering fire
Then, on day two, you get on a fucking plane and you fuck off to Bangkok and you bang a load of 22 year old go-go dancers and you come back in mid March. Sorted
Just want to add that I don't approve of such a lifestyle. It would be reprehensible and amoral, and completely unacceptable - to me at least. But I'm a bit old fashioned like that
Give me a proper long winter with crochet and watching the rain and stuff and growing a beard and things like that
I'm just saying if you DID do that kind of awful thing over winter, and you had no shame at all, it would probably cheer you up a bit
If we're going to take one poll and build an entire hypothesis, fine, but there are other pollsters and other evidence to consider unless you want to build the entire re-election hopes of the Conservatives on the Seventh Waverers riding over the horizon..
Redfield & Wilton have 53% of the 2019 Conservative vote staying loyal, 14% voting Labour, 14% Don't Know and 7% Reform.
Opinium have 48% Conservative, 21% Don't Know, 13% Labour and 9% Reform
We Think have 51% Conservative, 18% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 11% Reform.
The bigger question is how much (if at all) have these numbers moved since January. The headline numbers have hardly budged. If the Conservatives polled 45% last time, one sixth of that is 7.5% of the entire electorate so add that to what Labour polled last time and they go from the mid 30s to early 40s. Add in new voters and switchers from the SNP, LDs and Greens and you can see where a mid-40s poll share from Labour comes from.
Those who say there is no swing are talking nonsense. There is always churn in the voting population but often it evens itself out - the current polls suggest at least 20% and perhaps up to 30% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone either Labour or Reform (that's 9-12% of the entire electorate). That's more than churn.
As we've seen at by elections, the Conservative vote is splintering and often quite effectively among the various opposition parties.
Sorry Hunter, we thought you were just a crackhead who likes endless threesomes with hookers, which you are, sorry we soiled your reputation by pointing that out, with ample proof, thanks to the many videos of you doing exactly this
Look at this superb quote. The journalist must have been aware as he wrote this
"According to four sources close to the company, Hunter Biden regularly attended Burisma’s twice annual board meetings – all of which were held outside of Ukraine"
That's pretty much what I'd expect from someone who made a documentary like that in fairness.
It's like an over the top bible thumping, hellfire preaching priest (as opposed to your regular good hearted preacher) getting caught in any number of disreputable situations.
Watching Pink Floyd’sThe Wall, with commentary by Roger Waters & Gerald Scarfe; they talk of being worried that the fascist insignia etc that the protagonist wears at the end might inspire copycats. Just struck me that the ‘arms crossed’ gesture he gives is now what West Ham fans do for ‘Hammers’
A lot of talent worked on that film in all departments. Well worth seeing for anyone who hasn't seen it.
Look at this superb quote. The journalist must have been aware as he wrote this
"According to four sources close to the company, Hunter Biden regularly attended Burisma’s twice annual board meetings – all of which were held outside of Ukraine"
Having somebody on the board who can bring the "good time" doesn't come cheap....
Politico.com - Opinion | Why Nikki Haley Might Become Donald Trump’s Biggest Rival There’s a reason she might eclipse Ron DeSantis.
Rich Lowry is a contributing writer for POLITICO Magazine and the editor-in-chief of the National Review, a conservative news and opinion publication.
Nikki Haley isn’t exactly sweeping all before her, but she’s had a sustained rise that marks one of the major events in a presidential primary race with few new dynamics.
She’s tied with Ron DeSantis for second in Iowa, and is in second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina. She’s still not remotely close to Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican contest, but to have caught or overtaken DeSantis — given the buzz that the Florida governor had earlier in the year — is an accomplishment in itself.
In New Hampshire, a St. Anselm poll in March had Trump at 42 percent, DeSantis at 29 and Haley at 4. The latest USA Today poll in the state had Trump at 49 percent, Haley at 19 and DeSantis at 10.
Now, this may be inconsequential shuffling among no-hope candidates; it certainly is if Trump stays at roughly 50 percent. Worse, Haley eclipsing DeSantis may mean a candidate lacking broad-enough appeal in the party to win a majority is nudging aside the candidate with, in theory, the right profile to get to 50 percent plus 1.
That said, rising is better than falling, and running a campaign that has shown results is better than running one that hasn’t. Why has she ascended and what does it mean?
Haley has been helped immeasurably by the debates, where she’s been cogent, well-informed and combative. She’s tapped into the tough and unapologetic Thatcherite model of what a female politician should be that’s still so resonant for Republicans.
There was a tendency to pair her at the outset of the race with Sen. Tim Scott, a fellow South Carolinian who also has a more conventional Republican message. Scott, though, has been outworked and outperformed by the former governor. . . .
The DeSantis approach to the race has been inside-out — establish a spot in the center of the MAGA-ish Republican Party, and expand on both edges, winning enough Trump-friendly and Trump-skeptical voters to get to a winning plurality or a majority.
The Haley approach has been outside-in — establish dominance among the Trump-skeptical wing of the party and then use that strength to eat into soft Trump supporters willing to give her a look as she rises. . . .
One problem, though, is that DeSantis has always been subject to two different pincer movements — from above and below, and from MAGA and non-MAGA.
From above, because Trump has attacked him more than anyone else, and from below, because everyone else has had an incentive to try to overtake him for second place. . . .
There's no chance of Haley going bad and accepting VP to Trump, is there?
If a President can't serve from prison, it may be a good way of getting the top job. I am unaware of the rules on that - maybe as there is not precedent there aren't any.
Otherwise, she has certainly emerged as the sane future of her party and would be a good choice for them in four years if she does not make it this time.
There is nothing that explicitly rules out a president serving from prison. The founding fathers would have assumed that the impeachment process would take care of that, if the president didn't resign.
I think there are at least some state-level laws on whether a jailbird felon can be nominated in the primaries but you'd have to go through each state's laws to check that out (and some of the primaries will probably be over by the time the trials end anyway, though might have a bearing for the general election nominations).
I get not having rules about the most senior office holder in the land not being able to serve from prison. I find it very odd that some states and people who don't agree with ex-convicts being able to vote don't have rules or opinions against potentially current convicts being elected.
But I don't think the question will arise in time in any case - the documents case looks very likely to be delayed from May to beyond November, and the rest will be paused pending appeal by then.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
Strictly on the telly, Christmas in the offing - and it's my birthday month! What's not to like? February is my least favourite month, but at least it's short.
February is fine if you date the start of spring from the first flowering of crocus.
This follows the 40 days of Christmas starting on 25th December (the mistake is to start early and thus end it on the 25th), ending on 2nd February. Loads of people have diary space to do relaxed winter/Christmas fun things in January which they don't have in December because they are too busy not enjoying themselves.
Good evening
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Get well soon G
Thanks Malc
My wife's covid has been worse than her two other previous experiences and the irony is we both had our 7th covid vaccine plus flu just 2 weeks before
My DVT is quite extensive and they have discovered other issues which need managing but I do have an excellent dedicated hospital team plus medical centre
And we are so grateful for all our blessings, not least when you see what is going on in the middle east
Sorry to hear. The latest Covid really seems to flatten people, even if no pneumonia like the original.
Not to be morbid, but what is the electoral 'turnover' over a full five year term due to the passage of time?
Based on life expectancy of 80, a crude approximation is around 8%.
That means the electorate is not the same as back then. And significant swings can happen due to the passage of time unless the Tories are convincing people to vote for them more as they get older.
I'm not convinced that has been the case for older millennials and Gen X.
The skew of voting by age at the last election, which was at records highs, means the Tories need to win over significant numbers of non-Tories to stand still.
Not to be morbid, but what is the electoral 'turnover' over a full five year term due to the passage of time?
Based on life expectancy of 80, a crude approximation is around 8.5%.
That means the electorate is not the same as back then. And significant swings can happen due to the passage of time unless the Tories are convincing people to vote for them more as they get older.
I'm not convinced that has been the case for older millennials and Gen X.
The skew of voting by age at the last election, which was at records highs, means the Tories need to win over significant numbers of non-Tories to stand still.
I predict a comfortable Labour majority.
It is a oft mocked claim about Tories dying out or the like, and provably nonsense given how they have been re-elected many times, but I think the point about the skew at the last election, whether that is likely to change or continue further to the level fo advantage the Tories had, on top of all the other factors about the leadership changes, the time in government etc, mean it is one more thing to add to the mix in terms of why a comfortable majority now looks pretty likely, despite how many switches are needed to make that happen.
Not to be morbid, but what is the electoral 'turnover' over a full five year term due to the passage of time?
Based on life expectancy of 80, a crude approximation is around 8%.
That means the electorate is not the same as back then. And significant swings can happen due to the passage of time unless the Tories are convincing people to vote for them more as they get older.
I'm not convinced that has been the case for older millennials and Gen X.
The skew of voting by age at the last election, which was at records highs, means the Tories need to win over significant numbers of non-Tories to stand still.
I predict a comfortable Labour majority.
I'm aged 50, a homeowner, good job, pension, savings. I should be easing into their demographic.
However, the economy is ON FIRE and they're all standing around warming their hands on the embers.
Who the hell do they think is going to vote for them? Anyone younger than me has been stiffed by massive student loans and high house prices. The falling rate of homeownership is their death knell.
Every year I forget, kind of. Then every year late autumn comes along and WHAM, and with the sure and certain knowledge that winter lurks beyond
It’s the dreaded rundown to Christmas too…
I enjoy Christmas, I am not a Scrooge. But I don’t like the fact that at this time of year you have to juggle work, with shit weather, with cold and flu season, and on top of all that, all the organisation for the busiest social time of the year.
Give me January any day. At least then you’re just coping with the work and the shit weather.
I quite enjoy in a hatey way the damp darkness and shitness. It is seasonal and I like weather and moods to be seasonal. In recent years we seem to have developed a proper rainy season from mid October to late November, something we can really moan about.
It's the time of year to sit in pubs in the gloaming of late Sunday afternoon with Gerry Rafferty's Baker Street playing, or possibly David Gray's Babylon, and to ponder on the passing of time. Which reminds me it must be a full 12 months since I posted on that topic here on PB.
100% pubs are at their very best when the cold rain is pouring down outside and there's a rich ale from a welcoming barmaid on the bar. Weather moaning is a bit silly – we live in a northerly climate and therefore have seasons. Those who prefer monotonous blue skies year round are welcome to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. For me, it would be Hell on Earth.
Actually, due to having SAD - I have made adjustments to my life, and lifestyle, that can make winter tolerable
The key - from day 1 of the clocks going back - is to get as much daylight as possible. Even if it's grey and frigid: get outside, on that first evening. Also, enjoy winter clothes. Seriously. It makes a difference, buy a nice stylish coat and wear it on that first day: looking cool and slightly Germanic crossed with Scottish and Russian. Also, find the snuggliest possible pub and make it your home-from-home even on that first evening, with a favourite chair, a favourite ale, a favourite line of chat about the footie, by the flickering fire
Then, on day two, you get on a fucking plane and you fuck off to Bangkok and you bang a load of 22 year old go-go dancers and you come back in mid March. Sorted
Just want to add that I don't approve of such a lifestyle. It would be reprehensible and amoral, and completely unacceptable - to me at least. But I'm a bit old fashioned like that
Give me a proper long winter with crochet and watching the rain and stuff and growing a beard and things like that
I'm just saying if you DID do that kind of awful thing over winter, and you had no shame at all, it would probably cheer you up a bit
For various complex reasons, many moons ago, I had a meeting with a hippy on Santa Monica beach in October and he said he would soon be leaving, as he did every 'winter', for Mexico as he needed the sun to stay alive.
Which means that many Americans may be able to go cross country skiing, soon. It's a low impact sport, and slightly better than even swiming as an aerobic exercise.
Because of its health benefits, I am entirely serious when I suggest the the UK promote the sport. Granted, in many (most?) places you would have to make snow, but that is not hard, or expensive, to do.
(Those who need Veblen kicks in their lives could visit Norway for the cross country skiing there. You'll impress anyone who knows how expensive that nation is.)
Reform on 12%, a party with next to no coverage on the main TV channels, with an anonymous leader. If that is the case I have a slightly incomplete Hebridean ferry for sale.
@burgessian The greens are weirdo's the clowns made minister's are the thickest people you could imagine.They will take the SNP down with themselves, though Labour may need some useful idiots. Scotland is in dire straits just now.
This only proves that the Scottish Greens do not understand what safeguarding means. It does not mean that you can avoid being in the same building as someone who has different political opinions to you. It is also utterly contemptible of the Greens since their MSPs voted enthusiastically for a bill which would have allowed a depraved transgender sex offender - such as Andrew Miller recently sentenced for sexual offences against an 11 year old girl described by the judge as "frankly nauseating in its level of depravity and criminal deviance" - to get a GRC with no checks of any kind so that he could easily get access to women and girls.
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
With environmentalism seemingly an optional extra.
Not to be morbid, but what is the electoral 'turnover' over a full five year term due to the passage of time?
Based on life expectancy of 80, a crude approximation is around 8%.
That means the electorate is not the same as back then. And significant swings can happen due to the passage of time unless the Tories are convincing people to vote for them more as they get older.
I'm not convinced that has been the case for older millennials and Gen X.
The skew of voting by age at the last election, which was at records highs, means the Tories need to win over significant numbers of non-Tories to stand still.
I predict a comfortable Labour majority.
I'm aged 50, a homeowner, good job, pension, savings. I should be easing into their demographic.
However, the economy is ON FIRE and they're all standing around warming their hands on the embers.
Who the hell do they think is going to vote for them? Anyone younger than me has been stiffed by massive student loans and high house prices. The falling rate of homeownership is their death knell.
Unless the next government does something about it, which I doubt, homeownership will be a big factor in sinking them too, eventually. There have been some positive noises, but I'm giving it a few more governmental terms before the parties can overcome the blockages there.
Comments
I think there are at least some state-level laws on whether a jailbird felon can be nominated in the primaries but you'd have to go through each state's laws to check that out (and some of the primaries will probably be over by the time the trials end anyway, though might have a bearing for the general election nominations).
I think the only choice left to me is to finally get away somewhere. Perhaps somewhere sunny. I can't bear this darkness any more
That said, he does seem vaguely good at brokering international deals, be that the Windsor agreement, TPP, or the AI safety summit, and maintaining market confidence, but there's no real vision there that anyone can understand but him - and I'm not sure he knows either, which makes people simply suspect he's just a careerist.
Which he might well be.
"The Beatles could shit in me handbag and I'd still hide me polo mints in there."
It's been pissing down for weeks.
Sub-7% of 2019 Tory voters are planning to vote LibDem?
That's not great news for the LDs if true, given that their only other significant source of voters would be "people who voted for Corbyn in 2019".
This would then leave the Tories with 273 and Labour on 259 in E&W alone - and this is the best case scenario for the Tories. In practice, based on these figures, even if all the Tory 2019 'Don't knows', Reform voters and others come home (not going to happen) they will still lose a swathe of seats to Labour and the LibDems due to tactical voting.
Throw in maybe 25 gains in Scotland and far from being a chimera, this poll suggests a Labour majority is baled in.
I mean, I don't know what anyone expected. It was written in the late 70s by Lennon, so well after the Beatles era really, and there's no real reason to expect it to be on a par with their biggest hits.
I'm not the target market anyway, as before my time and I've never particularly enjoyed them (not in a contrarian way of saying they were sh1t - I can see why they were successful but there is no personal resonance). But, for big fans who remember avidly waiting for every release in the 60s, I can see why it's exciting regardless of whether the actual song is a classic - which it isn't but it's fine and recognisably Beatles.
I expect it will be October 24, the last week before the clocks go back. I suppose they could hold it on 31 October, but what's the point going into GMT for the sake of one more week. There's an outside chance of September.
But for my money 24 October has to be favourite.
The Lib Dems are nothing if not a useful protest vehicle. Indeed, they may be nothing except a protest vehicle.
It's not a practical vision, but it makes sense of everything he wants to happen. Politically, his problem is that an impossible vision is almost as pointless as no vision at all.
Having said that, clearly the base poll (9%) is poor for them if they want to be making a serious number of gains. Most polls show them a shade higher but, frankly, they'd prefer to be polling in the teens and, with a handful of exceptions, aren't.
(My guess is that the Conservatives do "best" in Spring 2024. They won't go then, in case something positive turns up. Autumn 2024 is accepting defeat. January 2025 would be mad, but maybe they are mad.)
I've assumed all the 23% DKs actually vote Tory making 63% of the 2019 Tories. I've also assumed that any tactical voting is already "baked in" to the 2019 figures.
This gives the Tories 30% share to Labour's 40% share with Labour on a majority of 78.
Just wanted to say that both my wife and I continue to struggle with our health issues, which in my case may continue a while
And to add to it our 15 month granddaughter ended up in A & E last night, with a 5 hour wait before seeing a doctor who prescribed antibiotics for her.
It is fair to say I have lost all appetite for the political to and fro and am greatly saddened by the middle east war, (and Ukraine).
Re February, as a leap year baby I will have had just 20 birthdays next Feb 29th, meaning that for 60 years nobody knew what date I should celebrate it. !!!!
My Mother said I was born in February and my Father said it had to be the 1st March.
Hence I had two birthdays and confused everybody, I bit like some of my posts on this forum !!!!
All the best to my fellow posters
Or is that adjusted for?
I seem to recall back in 1996/7 pollsters were finding far fewer people saying they voted Tory in 1992 than actually did.
My niece is a leap year baby too, celebrating her 4th real birthday next February.
No sun - no moon!
No morn - no noon -
No dawn - no dusk - no proper time of day -
No sky - no earthly view -
No distance looking blue -
No road - no street - no 't'other side the way' -
No end to any Row -
No indications where the Crescents go -
No top to any steeple -
No recognitions of familiar people -
No courtesies for showing 'em -
No knowing 'em -
No travelling at all - no locomotion,
No inkling of the way - no notion -
'No go' - by land or ocean -
No mail - no post -
No news from any foreign coast -
No Park - no Ring - no afternoon gentility -
No company - no nobility -
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,
No comfortable feel in any member -
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds, -
November!
My struggles and my mistakes have been fodder for a vile and sustained disinformation campaign against my father, President Joe Biden, and an all-out annihilation of my reputation.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2023/11/02/hunter-biden-addiction-substance-abuse-not-political-ploy/71332255007/
Joseph, 27, who made and presented a documentary for Channel 4 entitled How Not To Be Racist....
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/guardian-journalist-retweets-pro-hamas-social-media-account/
At general election level the main switchers the LDs are picking up, if any, are Remain Tories who held their noses and voted Tory in 2019 to keep out Corbyn but don't mind Starmer however still find Labour too left for them
The key - from day 1 of the clocks going back - is to get as much daylight as possible. Even if it's grey and frigid: get outside, on that first evening. Also, enjoy winter clothes. Seriously. It makes a difference, buy a nice stylish coat and wear it on that first day: looking cool and slightly Germanic crossed with Scottish and Russian. Also, find the snuggliest possible pub and make it your home-from-home even on that first evening, with a favourite chair, a favourite ale, a favourite line of chat about the footie, by the flickering fire
Then, on day two, you get on a fucking plane and you fuck off to Bangkok and you bang a load of 22 year old go-go dancers and you come back in mid March. Sorted
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4289623-putin-signs-bill-revoking-nuclear-test-ban-treaty/
Well worth reading.
The treatment of the Palestinians in the West Bank is in some ways so very much worse than what is happening in Gaza. It is awful on a human level; it kills off any prospect of a viable Palestinian state; and it utterly undermines Israel's claim to be democratic and liberal, 2 adjectives that cannot be applied to its behaviour in the West Bank.
For those worried about this just knock 6 or 7% off the lead of the other polling companies and you are about there. Or just look at the smallest polling lead as a guide if you prefer. I doubt you will spot a chimera though.
My wife's covid has been worse than her two other previous experiences and the irony is we both had our 7th covid vaccine plus flu just 2 weeks before
My DVT is quite extensive and they have discovered other issues which need managing but I do have an excellent dedicated hospital team plus medical centre
And we are so grateful for all our blessings, not least when you see what is going on in the middle east
Alanbrooke
Best wishes to you and yours. Do keep checking in and I hope the appetite for the cut and thrust of PB returns soon!!
Ignorant contemptible bullies - these seem to be the main requirements to be a member of the Scottish Greens.
And no, before anyone posts, I don't think him campaigning from jail for the last three months of the election will stop him winning.
Give me a proper long winter with crochet and watching the rain and stuff and growing a beard and things like that
I'm just saying if you DID do that kind of awful thing over winter, and you had no shame at all, it would probably cheer you up a bit
First, best wishes to @Big_G_NorthWales
On topic:
If we're going to take one poll and build an entire hypothesis, fine, but there are other pollsters and other evidence to consider unless you want to build the entire re-election hopes of the Conservatives on the Seventh Waverers riding over the horizon..
Redfield & Wilton have 53% of the 2019 Conservative vote staying loyal, 14% voting Labour, 14% Don't Know and 7% Reform.
Opinium have 48% Conservative, 21% Don't Know, 13% Labour and 9% Reform
We Think have 51% Conservative, 18% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 11% Reform.
The bigger question is how much (if at all) have these numbers moved since January. The headline numbers have hardly budged. If the Conservatives polled 45% last time, one sixth of that is 7.5% of the entire electorate so add that to what Labour polled last time and they go from the mid 30s to early 40s. Add in new voters and switchers from the SNP, LDs and Greens and you can see where a mid-40s poll share from Labour comes from.
Those who say there is no swing are talking nonsense. There is always churn in the voting population but often it evens itself out - the current polls suggest at least 20% and perhaps up to 30% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone either Labour or Reform (that's 9-12% of the entire electorate). That's more than churn.
As we've seen at by elections, the Conservative vote is splintering and often quite effectively among the various opposition parties.
Sorry Hunter, we thought you were just a crackhead who likes endless threesomes with hookers, which you are, sorry we soiled your reputation by pointing that out, with ample proof, thanks to the many videos of you doing exactly this
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hunter-biden-ukraine-idUSKBN1WX1P7
Stay the course, old pal!
Look at this superb quote. The journalist must have been aware as he wrote this
"According to four sources close to the company, Hunter Biden regularly attended Burisma’s twice annual board meetings – all of which were held outside of Ukraine"
It's like an over the top bible thumping, hellfire preaching priest (as opposed to your regular good hearted preacher) getting caught in any number of disreputable situations.
But I don't think the question will arise in time in any case - the documents case looks very likely to be delayed from May to beyond November, and the rest will be paused pending appeal by then.
Based on life expectancy of 80, a crude approximation is around 8%.
That means the electorate is not the same as back then. And significant swings can happen due to the passage of time unless the Tories are convincing people to vote for them more as they get older.
I'm not convinced that has been the case for older millennials and Gen X.
The skew of voting by age at the last election, which was at records highs, means the Tories need to win over significant numbers of non-Tories to stand still.
I predict a comfortable Labour majority.
However, the economy is ON FIRE and they're all standing around warming their hands on the embers.
Who the hell do they think is going to vote for them? Anyone younger than me has been stiffed by massive student loans and high house prices. The falling rate of homeownership is their death knell.
Or else you're just not pulling your weight enough I'm afraid, not earming that $1m.
Which means that many Americans may be able to go cross country skiing, soon. It's a low impact sport, and slightly better than even swiming as an aerobic exercise.
Because of its health benefits, I am entirely serious when I suggest the the UK promote the sport. Granted, in many (most?) places you would have to make snow, but that is not hard, or expensive, to do.
(Those who need Veblen kicks in their lives could visit Norway for the cross country skiing there. You'll impress anyone who knows how expensive that nation is.)