I thought the Starmer speech did a decent job of placating some Labour MPs who are calling for a ceasefire .
There was some pointed criticism of the illegal settlements and given the situation bar doing a u-turn on a ceasefire it was about the best he could have done .
Sky News is having to apologise about every 30 seconds for the “rather fruity” language on display in lockdown-era WhatsApp messages during former Mirror chicken Lee Cain’s inquiry session today, like Cummings complaining that Boris was “back to jaws mode wank“.
Sky News is having to apologise about every 30 seconds for the “rather fruity” language on display in lockdown-era WhatsApp messages during former Mirror chicken Lee Cain’s inquiry session today, like Cummings complaining that Boris was “back to jaws mode wank“.
what does that even mean?
Shut the beaches or don't shut the beaches? One of the two presumably.
Sky News is having to apologise about every 30 seconds for the “rather fruity” language on display in lockdown-era WhatsApp messages during former Mirror chicken Lee Cain’s inquiry session today, like Cummings complaining that Boris was “back to jaws mode wank“.
what does that even mean?
It is a reference to his standard after dinner speech, in which he refers approvingly to the mayor in Jaws. Something he evidently carried over into policy discussions.
Since I'm doing pics I find amusing, here are a couple of interesting barriers.
1 - This one looks like a legal tripwire so people going round it can be definitely shown to have done something unauthorised.
2 - Not sure how new this is, but it is unlawful as it will substantially disadvantage many disabled people. Are they planning to build a fence?
3 - This is like 2, but has been there for at least 25 and perhaps 50 years. I think I recall cycling through this on my Raleigh RSW14 at the age of 8. Also unlawful for the same reasons. And a total waste of money / space.
Off now - have a good day all.
I once ran full tilt into a no 3 in the dark, rather painful. Like that one it was painted a colour that doesn't show up in the dark, and if I had a headtorch on, it was pointed more at the ground
I presume the thinking behind 1) is that if they put the fence to the edge of the platform, it risks hitting trains and people can still climb round it?
3) is the kind of thing that was ancient when I was child.
What are the sensible, rational, effective methods for preventing urban paths becoming rat runs for the electric bike Deliveroo types?
Bring back the old country stiles. Try getting a bike over that!
That's fine on a footpath but not on a multi-use route. We have lots of these stupid barriers too and when I'm with a family member on a mobility scooter they have to get off and manoeuvre themselves through the barrier whilst I deconstruct the thing and carry it over. Nuts.
I managed to get a mountain bike over a 10ft deer gate without a stile, so a normal stile is no issue at all if I want to ride somewhere legally dubious. They only really stop motor bikes.
Actually it's not fine on a footpath.
Footpaths are required to be accessible to pedestrians, which includes wheelchairs and mobility aids.
That one looks like a case that no one will worry about - the sharp end is where useful and accessible paths are blocked off.
There's a bizarre one in North London at present where trolls have tried to hijack a consultation about a former railway path called the Parkland Walk, and are trying to keep wheelchairs out because they say Harringey Council want to resurface it all in tarmac and turn it into a "cycle superhighway" (they don't).
By footpath I meant a route across fields - which are unlikely to be wheelchair accessible between stiles in any case. There's plenty of those round here where they are barely accessible to the average pedestrian never mind anyone with wheels.
On a constructed route they should definitely be accessible, I agree.
I once had to write a policy for a hiking club, explaining our approach if a member wished to bring their infant child up the Aonach Eagach. I'm managed to say "nope" in about 500 words.
Lol. One picture of the Crazy Pinnacles might have been enough.
I was Pres of a university hiking club before they were weighed down by such form filling. It was very much a case of arbitrarily refusing to take someone we didn't think was up to it in those days.
I think it was after Lyme Bay that authorities started to take a dim view of "untrained" leaders and thus requiring lots of paperwork even though that accident was down to an official outdoor centre.
I do think it is a bit sad that undergraduates now have to go on a expensive leadership training courses in order to organise a trip to the countryside. And several more very expensive training courses to go anywhere near the Aggy. The club is now a shadow of its former self.
I always thought it was the getting there that was the most dangerous part.
Fascinating description of how underground fighting works in Gaza from the impressively impartial Tortoisemedia, who I find a good resource every day (at a trivial level I love their daily graph of news on an X/Y axis of important/unimportant vs surprising/unsurprising):
One thing I wonder about (and I don't pretend to know anything about this), why can't the Israeli's pump either coloured gas through the tunnels to observe exits and / or repeat what the Chechan terrorists did back in the day when they pumped the sleeping gas into the cinema.
At Iwo Jima, the US pumped seawater into the tunnels, laced with oil and petrol, before setting it alight.
Fascinating description of how underground fighting works in Gaza from the impressively impartial Tortoisemedia, who I find a good resource every day (at a trivial level I love their daily graph of news on an X/Y axis of important/unimportant vs surprising/unsurprising):
One thing I wonder about (and I don't pretend to know anything about this), why can't the Israeli's pump either coloured gas through the tunnels to observe exits and / or repeat what the Chechan terrorists did back in the day when they pumped the sleeping gas into the cinema.
The hostages?
Sleeping gas doesn't have to kill you. Now I seemed to remember that the gas the Russian's special forced used against the Chechen hostage takers was nasty stuff that was untried, some derivative of fentanyl, which did result in a handful of the hostages dying directly from it.
We have more recently had numerous incidents of criminals doing this to high value individuals in order to get into their homes and rob them.
So called sleeping gases don't really exist. If someone falls unconscious without care, there is a very high chance they will choke and die. This is what happened in Russia.
In Vietnam, the Americans, after trying various things came up with the following - For downed pilots who were closely surrounded by the enemy, they would blanket the area with tear gas. Then while everyone was rolling around on the ground coughing and throwing up, they would come in gas masks and shoot the enemy. The pilots would be in a shit state, but alive.
Sky News is having to apologise about every 30 seconds for the “rather fruity” language on display in lockdown-era WhatsApp messages during former Mirror chicken Lee Cain’s inquiry session today, like Cummings complaining that Boris was “back to jaws mode wank“.
what does that even mean?
Jaws was referring to the Mayor who wanted to leave the beaches open.
Fascinating description of how underground fighting works in Gaza from the impressively impartial Tortoisemedia, who I find a good resource every day (at a trivial level I love their daily graph of news on an X/Y axis of important/unimportant vs surprising/unsurprising):
One thing I wonder about (and I don't pretend to know anything about this), why can't the Israeli's pump either coloured gas through the tunnels to observe exits and / or repeat what the Chechan terrorists did back in the day when they pumped the sleeping gas into the cinema.
The hostages?
Sleeping gas doesn't have to kill you. Now I seemed to remember that the gas the Russian's special forced used against the Chechen hostage takers was nasty stuff that was untried, some derivative of fentanyl, which did result in a handful of the hostages dying directly from it.
We have more recently had numerous incidents of criminals doing this to high value individuals in order to get into their homes and rob them.
IANAE obviously - far from it - but presumably the dosage is important and in this instance impossible to control.
Since I'm doing pics I find amusing, here are a couple of interesting barriers.
1 - This one looks like a legal tripwire so people going round it can be definitely shown to have done something unauthorised.
2 - Not sure how new this is, but it is unlawful as it will substantially disadvantage many disabled people. Are they planning to build a fence?
3 - This is like 2, but has been there for at least 25 and perhaps 50 years. I think I recall cycling through this on my Raleigh RSW14 at the age of 8. Also unlawful for the same reasons. And a total waste of money / space.
Off now - have a good day all.
I once ran full tilt into a no 3 in the dark, rather painful. Like that one it was painted a colour that doesn't show up in the dark, and if I had a headtorch on, it was pointed more at the ground
I presume the thinking behind 1) is that if they put the fence to the edge of the platform, it risks hitting trains and people can still climb round it?
3) is the kind of thing that was ancient when I was child.
What are the sensible, rational, effective methods for preventing urban paths becoming rat runs for the electric bike Deliveroo types?
Will end up just being pedal-power only I reckon.
Otoh, electric bikes and scooters are almost certainly the future for travelling around cities on the road network, being cheaper to run and easier to store than cars. It's just that they are operated by numpties at the moment.
I predict that won't happen. We already have an enforcible Europe-wide definition of Electrically-Assisted Pedal Cycle (also "pedelec"), which is defined in law as a Pedal Cycle - assistance whilst pedalling to 15.5mph, when it turns off.
And we have a lot of disabled and older people benefitting from use of pedelecs, which I think means that such a move would fall foul of equality law.
Rather we will likely have a 3.7mph non-pedalling mode (like pavement mobility scooters) more widely recognised where pedelecs will be recognised as a mobility aid, and gradually a proper network of mobility infrastructure developed which will make the use of e-bikes, e-cooters etc practical, and provide a safe space which is neither road nor footway.
There are huge numbers of problems to address, eg wheelchair spaces on buses being installed to the absolute minimum legal standard, which can only physically accommodate half of wheelchairs. These will be dealt with eventually I am sure.
There's a very important report on 'Accessible Transport:Legal Obligations' due out soon from the Transport Select Committee.
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
Perhaps. Perhaps not. But they certainly aren’t going to prevail this autumn, in any notable way, as we told you
Except, with F-16s and ATACMS at the start of the campaign, they would have made much better headway. This has been a very conscious American decision though.
The Americans are exploiting a supreme failing: that Russians just cannot help themselves. They will not withdraw, cannot cede even a single treeline without throwing troops at it. It is some insane macho shit.
America knows this. It is letting the Russian psyche destroy its capacity to undertake warfare, gradually. Ukraine losses in this approach are very painful, but if Russia is unable to undertake offensive warfare operations for a generation - in which time, change might just happen - then we should applaud their sacrifice whilst wondering why the hell America won't give them some better weapons sooner, the better to hasten the process of Russian destruction.
Since I'm doing pics I find amusing, here are a couple of interesting barriers.
1 - This one looks like a legal tripwire so people going round it can be definitely shown to have done something unauthorised.
2 - Not sure how new this is, but it is unlawful as it will substantially disadvantage many disabled people. Are they planning to build a fence?
3 - This is like 2, but has been there for at least 25 and perhaps 50 years. I think I recall cycling through this on my Raleigh RSW14 at the age of 8. Also unlawful for the same reasons. And a total waste of money / space.
Off now - have a good day all.
I once ran full tilt into a no 3 in the dark, rather painful. Like that one it was painted a colour that doesn't show up in the dark, and if I had a headtorch on, it was pointed more at the ground
I presume the thinking behind 1) is that if they put the fence to the edge of the platform, it risks hitting trains and people can still climb round it?
3) is the kind of thing that was ancient when I was child.
What are the sensible, rational, effective methods for preventing urban paths becoming rat runs for the electric bike Deliveroo types?
Bring back the old country stiles. Try getting a bike over that!
That's fine on a footpath but not on a multi-use route. We have lots of these stupid barriers too and when I'm with a family member on a mobility scooter they have to get off and manoeuvre themselves through the barrier whilst I deconstruct the thing and carry it over. Nuts.
I managed to get a mountain bike over a 10ft deer gate without a stile, so a normal stile is no issue at all if I want to ride somewhere legally dubious. They only really stop motor bikes.
Actually it's not fine on a footpath.
Footpaths are required to be accessible to pedestrians, which includes wheelchairs and mobility aids.
That one looks like a case that no one will worry about - the sharp end is where useful and accessible paths are blocked off.
There's a bizarre one in North London at present where trolls have tried to hijack a consultation about a former railway path called the Parkland Walk, and are trying to keep wheelchairs out because they say Harringey Council want to resurface it all in tarmac and turn it into a "cycle superhighway" (they don't).
By footpath I meant a route across fields - which are unlikely to be wheelchair accessible between stiles in any case. There's plenty of those round here where they are barely accessible to the average pedestrian never mind anyone with wheels.
On a constructed route they should definitely be accessible, I agree.
I once had to write a policy for a hiking club, explaining our approach if a member wished to bring their infant child up the Aonach Eagach. I'm managed to say "nope" in about 500 words.
Lol. One picture of the Crazy Pinnacles might have been enough.
I was Pres of a university hiking club before they were weighed down by such form filling. It was very much a case of arbitrarily refusing to take someone we didn't think was up to it in those days.
I think it was after Lyme Bay that authorities started to take a dim view of "untrained" leaders and thus requiring lots of paperwork even though that accident was down to an official outdoor centre.
I do think it is a bit sad that undergraduates now have to go on a expensive leadership training courses in order to organise a trip to the countryside. And several more very expensive training courses to go anywhere near the Aggy. The club is now a shadow of its former self.
I always thought it was the getting there that was the most dangerous part.
It was still like that when I was running things. We were covered by a combination of the Uni's and SMCs insurance policies, with no questions asked. And getting free Mountain Leader training is great - good backup career (indeed, I'm half considering it if we move back up north).
Agree on the driving - there is a bizarre loophole which allowed 18 year old Eabhal to drive a bus over the Bealach na Ba. Another member got a careless driving charge doing some mad overtake on the Achnasheen road. I miss it all terribly.
This is the kind of nonsense why I don't have huge faith in the inquiry.
He says Anne Longfield - the children's commissioner of England at the time - constantly asked Boris Johnson and others to hold a press conference "especially for children". O'Connor asks Cain if he was aware of this lobbying - and why such a briefing was never held.
---
Ouch....
A few moments ago Boris Johnson's former aide Lee Cain told the inquiry that his boss was someone who would often delay making decisions and change his mind on issues. Covid was the ''wrong challenge'' for him, he says.
I really feel sorry for Boris Johnson, so unfair that he had to face a challenge that was so wrong for him. What a cruel disease Covid was.
If only he had been PM back during a period when the biggest crisis facing the nation was finding an emergency panellist on a topical news comedy show.
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
And Russia is reported to be making Iranian-designed drones under licence, while China is trying to stop exports of non-military drones of the type used by Ukraine.
Rational Muslims probably have the second most, after Jews, to fear of Islamism
I think the problem is that islam is a political ideology in some parts as much as a religious one. I am afraid of radical islam for the same reason I am afraid of fascism, and for much the same reason. I've no such fear of Christians or Zoroastrians.
Where we in the west have made our bloomer, is in trying to be tolerant and diverse to all religions, which is admirable, without acknowledging the political aspects and tenents of radical Islam. What is happening at the moment is not about religion, it is about fascism. We believe fascism looks like Herr Flick in his dark uniform and leather coat. Unfortunately it takes other forms.
In a secular society then being tolerant and diverse to all religions is entirely reasonable, since if society is secular people can choose their own religion (or none) and it doesn't affect anyone else.
The clash of cultures comes when people oppose secularism and want their faith imposed by force as it is the "word of Yahweh/God/Allah/Buddha/FSM" himself.
Whether that be radical Islamists, radical Christians, radical Buddhist/Jews/Hindus/Vegans/whatever anyone who tries to impose their fundamentalism onto others is a problem.
The National Secular Society opposes religious schools and wants to close them all
Interesting you replied like that. Nobody mentioned state subsidy for religous sects' indoctrination of children till you did.
Now you mention it, about time we closed down all sectarian schooling on council tax or central government money.
You also one of the secular fundamentalists I see, denying religious parents (who are also taxpayers who fund state education) the right to choose the schools they want for their children
Religious education is a form of indoctrination where a set of unproveable statements are presented as facts and combined with threatened punishments for disbelief (like burning in hellfire forever) or for some religions, murder or torture or both probably followed by hellfire in the afterlife.
Ruling your "flock" through coercion and fear. And this is supposed to be moral? Admirable?
Make all schools secular. The parents can still choose which school they like, but none of them should be offering mental torture as an option.
As I said, you are a secular fundamentalist extremist.
You want to close all religious schools, despite most getting above average results and deny taxpaying religious parents the freedom to send their children to religious schools.
And the idea the average C of E primary is telling all its pupils all day long they will burn in hell forever is laughable
Just because someone doesn't believe in religious schools it doesn't make them 'secular fundamentalist extremists '. I believe in freedom of religion, but I disagree that any particular religion should be taught in schools, particularly state schools. It might be very mild, but it is a form of indoctrination and should not be part of a democracy. I have no issue with religion outside of education.
Yes it does, it means you want to drive religion out of education and prevent even schools with a religious ethos and with pupils from a similar religious background from existing to suit your secular agenda. It is fundamentally anti parental choice to deny religious parents the choice of good religious schools for their children
I don't have a secular agenda. In fact both my children went to a CofE school so clearly I don't as I could have sent them elsewhere. But religion really should play no part in education. It is not part of education. It is a belief not a fact or skill to be learnt. Parents can still get involved in their local church, Sunday school, etc. Why do they have to have it at school as well which should be about education, not faith.
Where would you draw the line? Would you be happy with pagan schools, voodoo school, rain god worshiping schools, or is it better that schools should focus on education and religion be left to personal choice.
As they want faith based values in the school they send their children to, which in a free nation they are entitled to if they wish.
I would not have a problem with any religion running a school, the more choice the better as far as I am concerned, hence I also support free schools and private schools and grammar schools
Schools shouldn't be able to discriminate on the basis of faith. Publicly funded schools especially.
Also what is the mechanism for converting a state funded faith school into a non-discriminatory school if the majority of parents at the school want that?
They would have to buy the premises via an academy chain/free school mechanism. Because the deal is that any religious school, the fabric and the premises are maintained by the church and the staff paid by the government.
However, in practice that would happen very rarely. That's a huge burden to place on a small charity, academy chains would just take the money, and most parents who chose religious schools are happy with the arrangement anyway.
Is that true? Internet suggests in voluntary aided schools 90% of capital costs and 100%of running costs are paid for by state - and that parents are asked to contribute to the 10%. And in voluntary controlled schools (which includes more than half of CofE schools) all costs are paid for by the state.
Since I'm doing pics I find amusing, here are a couple of interesting barriers.
1 - This one looks like a legal tripwire so people going round it can be definitely shown to have done something unauthorised.
2 - Not sure how new this is, but it is unlawful as it will substantially disadvantage many disabled people. Are they planning to build a fence?
3 - This is like 2, but has been there for at least 25 and perhaps 50 years. I think I recall cycling through this on my Raleigh RSW14 at the age of 8. Also unlawful for the same reasons. And a total waste of money / space.
Off now - have a good day all.
I once ran full tilt into a no 3 in the dark, rather painful. Like that one it was painted a colour that doesn't show up in the dark, and if I had a headtorch on, it was pointed more at the ground
I presume the thinking behind 1) is that if they put the fence to the edge of the platform, it risks hitting trains and people can still climb round it?
3) is the kind of thing that was ancient when I was child.
What are the sensible, rational, effective methods for preventing urban paths becoming rat runs for the electric bike Deliveroo types?
Will end up just being pedal-power only I reckon.
Otoh, electric bikes and scooters are almost certainly the future for travelling around cities on the road network, being cheaper to run and easier to store than cars. It's just that they are operated by numpties at the moment.
I predict that won't happen. We already have an enforcible Europe-wide definition of Electrically-Assisted Pedal Cycle (also "pedelec"), which is defined in law as a Pedal Cycle - assistance whilst pedalling to 15.5mph, when it turns off.
And we have a lot of disabled and older people benefitting from use of pedelecs, which I think means that such a move would fall foul of equality law.
Rather we will likely have a 3.7mph non-pedalling mode (like pavement mobility scooters) more widely recognised where pedelecs will be recognised as a mobility aid, and gradually a proper network of mobility infrastructure developed which will make the use of e-bikes, e-cooters etc practical, and provide a safe space which is neither road nor footway.
There are huge numbers of problems to address, eg wheelchair spaces on buses being installed to the absolute minimum legal standard, which can only physically accommodate half of wheelchairs. These will be dealt with eventually I am sure.
There's a very important report on 'Accessible Transport:Legal Obligations' due out soon from the Transport Select Committee.
That all seems very sensible and I agree - people are having lots of success defending their e-bikes as mobility aids (which they are!).
But I think the ire directed at cyclists by the usual suspects will end up re-directed to e-bikes specifically, as a kind of of socially acceptable criticism. Let's see.
Very strong on a Politically negotiated 2 state solution to start immediately with new solutions.
That is good. Most outsiders want to see peace and have a similar vision of the end game, even if they often differ about how best to get there.
But the reality is that for those living there on both sides its more emotional, more driven by fear and sometimes hate or revenge, and that what us outsiders want is massively outweighed by what they think they need. And they keep choosing badly on both sides.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
Neither side can successfully attack the other, the defences are too strong and offence is too bruising. It’s like NZ v the Boks last Saturday
It has for a while looked like there is a tacit assumption that the east of Ukraine will end up with Russia. The lack of effort from both sides to make a big push suggest this about the south, essentially from Mariupol west. And really, about Crimea.
Crimea as a warm water port is now lost to Russia. It may have gas to exploit, but otherwise Crimea is a mess to administer, with water dependant upon Ukraine.
A deal that gives Crimea back to Ukraine in return for Russia keeping a slab of the east is probably sellable to Ukraine.
To Moscow? Probably not, at least while Putin is alive.
Some rare policing good news which I’m sure* everyone will applaud. No wonder they had a forensic tent to spare for Nicla’s front garden.
*not totally sure about that actually.
TBF, that is very impressive.
Yes and no. Most murder victims are known to the murderer, and indeed many are in the family. They are not hard to clear up. Its vanishingly rare to get murders with no connection (or no known one). I'd love to see the equivalent UK figures.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I particularly liked the part about rather being electrocuted than being eaten by a shark.
In contrast, I think Biden has been extremely Presidential in the way he has dealt with the Hamas crisis. It plays to his strengths and long experience but he has been measured, clear and not at all afraid of action (as shown by the air raids in Iraq and the interception of missiles in the Red Sea).
I think the multiplicity of law suits, the increasing risks to his wealth and indeed his liberty, is making Trump desperate. His fund raising is increasingly focused on paying for the plethora of lawyers he needs to deploy. Assumptions about him being the Republican nominee may well prove to be misplaced.
Yes. For me if you take a holistic impressionist view of the Donald Trump situation rather than an analytical mechanistic one (a Monet rather than a Stubbs if you will) you see a man with little chance of regaining the White House. The 2.9 current price is truly something to behold imo. I envy people with a clean book who can start laying him at that sort of level.
You keep trying to apply a rational analysis to American politics. At the moment we are deep into shark jump territory. Or perhaps.... General Boulanger territory. A large chunk of the population will vote for Trump, no matter what. He has a solid lock one of the two main parties.
Take your point but no, I'm doing the opposite of that on this one. I'm usually Mr Spock but here I'm Captain Kirk. I'm using fuzzy 'big pic' intuition not bottoms up logical analysis. I've learnt to trust it when I have it. There'll be no POTUS Trump 2.0.
Given the solid MAGA lock on the vote counting and affirming process, in many states?
"The people will vote. My brother will count the votes" - Napoleon.
Since I'm doing pics I find amusing, here are a couple of interesting barriers.
1 - This one looks like a legal tripwire so people going round it can be definitely shown to have done something unauthorised.
2 - Not sure how new this is, but it is unlawful as it will substantially disadvantage many disabled people. Are they planning to build a fence?
3 - This is like 2, but has been there for at least 25 and perhaps 50 years. I think I recall cycling through this on my Raleigh RSW14 at the age of 8. Also unlawful for the same reasons. And a total waste of money / space.
Off now - have a good day all.
I once ran full tilt into a no 3 in the dark, rather painful. Like that one it was painted a colour that doesn't show up in the dark, and if I had a headtorch on, it was pointed more at the ground
I presume the thinking behind 1) is that if they put the fence to the edge of the platform, it risks hitting trains and people can still climb round it?
3) is the kind of thing that was ancient when I was child.
What are the sensible, rational, effective methods for preventing urban paths becoming rat runs for the electric bike Deliveroo types?
Bring back the old country stiles. Try getting a bike over that!
That's fine on a footpath but not on a multi-use route. We have lots of these stupid barriers too and when I'm with a family member on a mobility scooter they have to get off and manoeuvre themselves through the barrier whilst I deconstruct the thing and carry it over. Nuts.
I managed to get a mountain bike over a 10ft deer gate without a stile, so a normal stile is no issue at all if I want to ride somewhere legally dubious. They only really stop motor bikes.
Actually it's not fine on a footpath.
Footpaths are required to be accessible to pedestrians, which includes wheelchairs and mobility aids.
That one looks like a case that no one will worry about - the sharp end is where useful and accessible paths are blocked off.
There's a bizarre one in North London at present where trolls have tried to hijack a consultation about a former railway path called the Parkland Walk, and are trying to keep wheelchairs out because they say Harringey Council want to resurface it all in tarmac and turn it into a "cycle superhighway" (they don't).
By footpath I meant a route across fields - these are unlikely to be wheelchair accessible between stiles in any case. There's plenty of those round here where they are barely accessible to the average pedestrian never mind anyone with wheels.
On a constructed route they should definitely be accessible, I agree.
You might be surprised.
The are these things called all-terrain wheelchairs (including very light ones using mountain bike technology), which were already in use a decade ago when those 3 army veteran amputees beat the self-built Top Gear Team versions to the top of a hill.
No one's going to demand a wheelchair route up Striding Edge or Jacob's Ladder at Edale, but woodlands and much field or hill type landscape is comprehensively accessible already. There are also "all terrain mobility scooters", which have much larger wheels than a street mobility scooter.
Network Rail are currently up before the Planning Inspectorate because they want to replace a pedestrian level crossing at Copmanthorpe with a bridge with steps not ramps because they claim "it is not in an accessible location".
Rational Muslims probably have the second most, after Jews, to fear of Islamism
Gay people. Unless they enjoy being pushed off tall buildings. We saw what IS did to gay people in those places they momentarily held. Islam is a threat to gay people wherever it exists, let alone fundamentalists.
Yep. Many of the supposedly great religions detest us, but Islam definitely wins first prize in the gay persecution and slaughter contest, and by a tidy margin.
At this point we must remember that not only is Gaza ruled by Hamas, but a very large fraction of the people there actually voted for the fuckers. They like and approve of Hamas. They think they've got the right ideas.
One feels that one ought to be sympathetic to the predicament in which the Gazans now find themselves, but it's hard to care much about people that think you belong in Hell, and would rejoice at sending you there as soon as possible given half a chance.
A smaller fraction now, if it is true that more than half of the population was not around to vote. Ironically, Israel's action might harden support for Hamas, because at least they are fighting back against the destroyers of Gazan homes, infrastructure, and lives.
Indeed. Looking at the age demographics, the turnout and the approximate vote share, we can estimate that c. 200,000 of the 2.3 million currently in Gaza actually voted for Hamas some 17 years ago.
That's a pretty small fraction - those who voted for Hamas once are outnumbered 10 to 1 by those who never have.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
Neither side can successfully attack the other, the defences are too strong and offence is too bruising. It’s like NZ v the Boks last Saturday
It has for a while looked like there is a tacit assumption that the east of Ukraine will end up with Russia. The lack of effort from both sides to make a big push suggest this about the south, essentially from Mariupol west. And really, about Crimea.
Crimea as a warm water port is now lost to Russia. It may have gas to exploit, but otherwise Crimea is a mess to administer, with water dependant upon Ukraine.
A deal that gives Crimea back to Ukraine in return for Russia keeping a slab of the east is probably sellable to Ukraine.
To Moscow? Probably not, at least while Putin is alive.
I particularly liked the part about rather being electrocuted than being eaten by a shark.
In contrast, I think Biden has been extremely Presidential in the way he has dealt with the Hamas crisis. It plays to his strengths and long experience but he has been measured, clear and not at all afraid of action (as shown by the air raids in Iraq and the interception of missiles in the Red Sea).
I think the multiplicity of law suits, the increasing risks to his wealth and indeed his liberty, is making Trump desperate. His fund raising is increasingly focused on paying for the plethora of lawyers he needs to deploy. Assumptions about him being the Republican nominee may well prove to be misplaced.
Yes. For me if you take a holistic impressionist view of the Donald Trump situation rather than an analytical mechanistic one (a Monet rather than a Stubbs if you will) you see a man with little chance of regaining the White House. The 2.9 current price is truly something to behold imo. I envy people with a clean book who can start laying him at that sort of level.
You keep trying to apply a rational analysis to American politics. At the moment we are deep into shark jump territory. Or perhaps.... General Boulanger territory. A large chunk of the population will vote for Trump, no matter what. He has a solid lock one of the two main parties.
Take your point but no, I'm doing the opposite of that on this one. I'm usually Mr Spock but here I'm Captain Kirk. I'm using fuzzy 'big pic' intuition not bottoms up logical analysis. I've learnt to trust it when I have it. There'll be no POTUS Trump 2.0.
Given the solid MAGA lock on the vote counting and affirming process, in many states?
"The people will vote. My brother will count the votes" - Napoleon.
Good luck with that thinking.
Trumps best chance of stealing the election was when he was already POTUS - and we basically see that is what he tried to do, using his network and influence as President to try and force GOP pols in states to overturn results and, when that failed, trying to pressure Pence and the House with the threat of violence.
I think Trump has a reasonable chance of winning the EC just because the US is 46/46 and that 8% who aren't fixed into a party have weird priorities that don't quite make them "the centre" but do mean they could vote either way depending on what they care about most on the day.
A bigger issue, in my mind, will be if Trump loses but the GOP keep the House - they would totally refuse to accept the delegates and that does put you in "civil war" territory where the constitution doesn't really provide a workable answer (I think if the EC isn't accepted it becomes a vote of the states, where each delegation votes and then whichever is the majority in that state can say who they support, which would probably go in favour of the GOP)
It is only the Vice President as Senate President who affirms the result of the EC and Harris will of course still be VP in Jan 2025. The House can challenge state EC results but only with Senate support have a chance to change anything.
It only goes to state representatives if there is no EC majority for any one candidate
In my understanding a majority in the House can refuse to accept delegates from certain states / the entire delegation of the Electoral College without the VP needing to agree. They could do so to either manufacture a tie (by denying one or two states to make the maths work) or denying ALL electors. In a situation where they deny all electors, I assume that will count as "no EC majority for any one candidate".
Only Congress alone can do that, the House alone can't without majority of Senate support too
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
This is the kind of nonsense why I don't have huge faith in the inquiry.
He says Anne Longfield - the children's commissioner of England at the time - constantly asked Boris Johnson and others to hold a press conference "especially for children". O'Connor asks Cain if he was aware of this lobbying - and why such a briefing was never held.
---
Ouch....
A few moments ago Boris Johnson's former aide Lee Cain told the inquiry that his boss was someone who would often delay making decisions and change his mind on issues. Covid was the ''wrong challenge'' for him, he says.
I really feel sorry for Boris Johnson, so unfair that he had to face a challenge that was so wrong for him. What a cruel disease Covid was.
If only he had been PM back during a period when the biggest crisis facing the nation was finding an emergency panellist on a topical news comedy show.
Can we replace the House of Commons with 650 tubs of lard?
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
That the lines will be frozen at the position of the armistice is an easy prediction.
Whether the lines will be on the Polish border or on the Ukrainian border with the Republic of China is the question. Or somewhere in between.
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so far as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
[Edit} Good to have you back OGH, hope you are soon fighting fit.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
The 2024 Russian Presidential Election in March 2024 is thought to be the crux. If Ukraine can achieve a breakthru before then they may keep it. If they cannot, they will be overwhelmed by greater callup by Putin after March (election) or May (inauguration). As I said, I suspect they cannot, at least with their attrition strategy. But there is always hope.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
Haven't lots of pundits long been saying an impasse is a likely medium term outcome?
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so fae r as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
And you were another twat who was loudly, urgently, frenetically boosting Ukrainian chances as you frotted yourself into a Lithuanian flag, thereby causing yourself to snap your tiny frenulum of Putin-phobia
I'm sorry. I was right. You were wrong. Do send us another earnest emotional adolescently over-wrought 7,000 page essay about the "state of feelings in Rigagrad" or wherever the fuck it is that you live
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so far as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
[Edit} Good to have you back OGH, hope you are soon fighting fit.
Sadly, Putin just needs to hold on by killing thousands of youngsters in appalling meatgrinder defence, until Trump is elected.
Time is running out.
Totally agree that Russia is a monumental threat to world order now.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
Haven't lots of pundits long been saying an impasse is a likely medium term outcome?
Cummings says over time, the Cabinet Office became "incredibly bloated" and gained both informal and formal power.
He says it was difficult to know who to talk to in the Cabinet Office to get action, which was "critical" in the early months of Covid. The wrong people were in the wrong jobs, he says, but doesn't say who he is referring to. It's a problem he says that worsened with the pandemic.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
That the lines will be frozen at the position of the armistice is an easy prediction.
Whether the lines will be on the Polish border or on the Ukrainian border with the Republic of China is the question. Or somewhere in between.
OK I'll stick my neck out. Ukraine is never getting Crimea back
It will almost certainly never get the Donbas back. It is fairly unlikely to get the other occupied territories back (though this is with decreasing certainty)
For the purposes of clarity, I do not call this a Russian victory. I do not want a Russian victory and I do not believe this IS a victory, not in the long term. Russia has expended vast amounts of blood and treasure to win some impoverished provinces and a slender land bridge to precious Crimea (but it already had Crimea). It has strengthened and unified NATO and now has a vast new NATO border with Finland. The remaining Ukrainian state will now loathe Russia, for generations, meaning Ptuin has created a newly hostile power right on the doorstep. And at the same time the Russian military has been exposed as fairly crap, and Russia has lost a million bright young people to emigration
Medium/long term this is a disaster for Russia
However I am clear headed enough to see where this war has been going for a long time, now, which is: pretty much nowhere
Let's not overthink this. To a certain group of PBers it is "The Jews".
The same people who want to kill Jews now wanted to kill @bigjohnowls a couple of years ago. When he was crapping himself in his hotel room he should really have walked outside and screamed Free Palestine at his attackers.
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so far as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
[Edit} Good to have you back OGH, hope you are soon fighting fit.
Sadly, Putin just needs to hold on by killing thousands of youngsters in appalling meatgrinder defence, until Trump is elected.
Time is running out.
Totally agree that Russia is a monumental threat to world order now.
Unfortunately, Russia can actually sustain the loss of 1000 men a day, in the crudest possible sense
Russia has a population of 143 million. Over 5000 babies are born every day. 2500 will be boys. It can afford to lose 1000 of them
Not that it will come to this. Ukraine will, I fear, run out of men much sooner: 32 million Ukrainians live in the 2022 Ukraine borders. It is less than a quarter of the size of Russia
It appears that Shani Louk, the young German girl who has abducted, had her legs broken, and was paraded as a trophy in Gaza, was finally beheaded. Apols if this has already been discussed.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
Haven't lots of pundits long been saying an impasse is a likely medium term outcome?
Well, you haven't, as far as I can tell
I think we can say that @Leon is generally wrong on every call of this conflict so far. There is always a possibility he might be right at some point, but on past performance he has as much chance of turning out to be correct as Putin has to be considered as a strategic genius or recipient of a future Nobel Peace Prize.
"trolley on it" - Cummings - when PM changes mind yet again.
PM changes mind all time.
And on that belter they call for lunch.
Every time I see Cummings I am really sure there was an obscure Viz character who looked just like him, but I can't find it so maybe I am imagining it. Perhaps it is their shared North East roots. Dominic Cummings and his Billionaire-financed Attack on the Establishment would make quite a good Viz strip, anyway.
Let's not overthink this. To a certain group of PBers it is "The Jews".
The same people who want to kill Jews now wanted to kill @bigjohnowls a couple of years ago. When he was crapping himself in his hotel room he should really have walked outside and screamed Free Palestine at his attackers.
Do what? I must have missed his previous adventures.
To go back to David Baddiel being described as a hardline Zionist for a minute. What is the grounds for this? 1. Because Baddiel is an open advocate for Zionism and Israel? We know this is not true - he is *the opposite* of this and openly says Fuck Israel 2. Because Baddiel is a very public figure who writes books in defence of non-Israeli Jews and has "Jew" as the entirety of his Twitter bio
Its 2 isn't it? Baddiel is Jew and therefore is Zionist and therefore is responsible for Israel. Which - and he won't like me pointing it out - is a blatantly anti-semitic position to take...
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
The 2024 Russian Presidential Election in March 2024 is thought to be the crux. If Ukraine can achieve a breakthru before then they may keep it. If they cannot, they will be overwhelmed by greater callup by Putin after March (election) or May (inauguration). As I said, I suspect they cannot, at least with their attrition strategy. But there is always hope.
I don't think most observers believe that the Russian election is a crux - the election is essentially a Government opinion poll, and the results announced don't necessarily reflect the reality (although there is sufficient information around that they probably can't completely distort turnout in particular). It's useful to Putin because he gets the genuine turnout and voting figures, which can tell him the level of (dis)satisfaction, but it would be naive to think that he's worried that he might lose and delaying further callup for fear of the results.
My impression, like Leon's, is that the war is stalemated, and has been for most of the last year. That could change if Putin's circle decide to give up and chuck him under a bus, or if Trump is elected, but both scenarios are probably less likely that another year of trench warfare.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
Haven't lots of pundits long been saying an impasse is a likely medium term outcome?
Well, you haven't, as far as I can tell
I think we can say that @Leon is generally wrong on every call of this conflict so far. There is always a possibility he might be right at some point, but on past performance he has as much chance of turning out to be correct as Putin has to be considered as a strategic genius or recipient of a future Nobel Peace Prize.
If I could be arsed I'd go back and find my comments from midsummer when I pointed out the great counter-offensive was going nowhere. I even quoted and linked to UKRAINIAN battle-front journalists who were ruefully pointing this out to readers back home
I was loudly shouted down by the usual suspects. Yawn. @Dura_Ace and @DavidL were about the only sensible realists, the rest of the unthinking PB herd bleated as normal
However I have to go visit the Valley of the Temples in Agrigento, so meh
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so far as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
[Edit} Good to have you back OGH, hope you are soon fighting fit.
Sadly, Putin just needs to hold on by killing thousands of youngsters in appalling meatgrinder defence, until Trump is elected.
Time is running out.
Totally agree that Russia is a monumental threat to world order now.
Unfortunately, Russia can actually sustain the loss of 1000 men a day, in the crudest possible sense
Russia has a population of 143 million. Over 5000 babies are born every day. 2500 will be boys. It can afford to lose 1000 of them
Not that it will come to this. Ukraine will, I fear, run out of men much sooner: 32 million Ukrainians live in the 2022 Ukraine borders. It is less than a quarter of the size of Russia
I am sure the harbingers of doom spouted similar negativity in 1940
Some rare policing good news which I’m sure* everyone will applaud. No wonder they had a forensic tent to spare for Nicla’s front garden.
*not totally sure about that actually.
So... Are Scottish cops smarter than their counterparts south of the border? Or are Scottish murderers dumber than their counterparts south of the border?
Very much the former.
A fine actor in his day. Towards the end he was often so drunk on set they had to give his lines to other cast members to get the shot
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so far as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
[Edit} Good to have you back OGH, hope you are soon fighting fit.
Sadly, Putin just needs to hold on by killing thousands of youngsters in appalling meatgrinder defence, until Trump is elected.
Time is running out.
Totally agree that Russia is a monumental threat to world order now.
Unfortunately, Russia can actually sustain the loss of 1000 men a day, in the crudest possible sense
Russia has a population of 143 million. Over 5000 babies are born every day. 2500 will be boys. It can afford to lose 1000 of them
Not that it will come to this. Ukraine will, I fear, run out of men much sooner: 32 million Ukrainians live in the 2022 Ukraine borders. It is less than a quarter of the size of Russia
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h If the US ends up having to fight/support multiple wars around the globe, it will bear the responsibility because of the slow and limited ways it armed Ukraine. Helping Ukraine win as quickly as possible was always the smart, humane choice. However ‘clever’ policy makers blew it.
Yes, Baddiel is the oppposite of a hardline Zionist. That's worse than a lie, it's a smear
He is, however, highly alert to the rise of anti-Semitism, and has been for some time. Seems he has a point
"Chilling echoes of the Nazis as 60 Stars of David are spray-painted over buildings in Paris, as France sees spate of anti-Semitism since Israel-Hamas war broke out https://trib.al/VZ5Xmvj"
Some rare policing good news which I’m sure* everyone will applaud. No wonder they had a forensic tent to spare for Nicla’s front garden.
*not totally sure about that actually.
TBF, that is very impressive.
Yes and no. Most murder victims are known to the murderer, and indeed many are in the family. They are not hard to clear up. Its vanishingly rare to get murders with no connection (or no known one). I'd love to see the equivalent UK figures.
"100% homicide detection rate" sounds a bit dodgy. There must be some murders in Scotland that aren't detected. But the stat should remind us that your best bets to get away with murder are either make it look like natural causes, or make sure no body is ever found.
“Johnson agreed with MPs who felt 'we should let old people' get Covid, inquiry hears“
While this might win back Bart’s vote, I can’t see it going down well with the average Tory voter.
The inquiry manages to be hugely sensational and water under the bridge at the same time. It's an amazing and horrifying look at what went on in Government circle during the pandemic, but so far it's mainly damaging Boris, on whom most people have already a settled opinion (pro or con), plus various advisers who most people don't know. The only way it will become immediately relevant is if "Eat out to help out" turns out to have been against overwhelming advice and is seen to have led to a lot of unnecessary deaths, since that would implicate Sunak.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
Haven't lots of pundits long been saying an impasse is a likely medium term outcome?
Well, you haven't, as far as I can tell
I think we can say that @Leon is generally wrong on every call of this conflict so far. There is always a possibility he might be right at some point, but on past performance he has as much chance of turning out to be correct as Putin has to be considered as a strategic genius or recipient of a future Nobel Peace Prize.
If I could be arsed I'd go back and find my comments from midsummer when I pointed out the great counter-offensive was going nowhere. I even quoted and linked to UKRAINIAN battle-front journalists who were ruefully pointing this out to readers back home
I was loudly shouted down by the usual suspects. Yawn. @Dura_Ace and @DavidL were about the only sensible realists, the rest of the unthinking PB herd bleated as normal
However I have to go visit the Valley of the Temples in Agrigento, so meh
Lol, I remember when you were forecasting that we should all prepare for nuclear Armageddon. You have as much capability in your attempts to be a futurologist as your hero Boris Johnson had as a decision maker.
Why don't you just admit it. You are guessing. You have as much expertise in this area as you do in nuclear physics (or any other area of science for that matter). As for @Dura_Ace he is simply a lickspittle Putin apologist and has been wrong even more often than you.
Yes, Baddiel is the oppposite of a hardline Zionist. That's worse than a lie, it's a smear
He is, however, highly alert to the rise of anti-Semitism, and has been for some time. Seems he has a point
"Chilling echoes of the Nazis as 60 Stars of David are spray-painted over buildings in Paris, as France sees spate of anti-Semitism since Israel-Hamas war broke out https://trib.al/VZ5Xmvj"
It comes down again to the lazy sterotype that those are the most vocal about Jewish issue must therefore be also passionate Zionists. Of course, even within Israel, many Haredi Jews (the ultra othrodox) are massively opposed to the Zionist movement.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
Haven't lots of pundits long been saying an impasse is a likely medium term outcome?
Well, you haven't, as far as I can tell
I think we can say that @Leon is generally wrong on every call of this conflict so far. There is always a possibility he might be right at some point, but on past performance he has as much chance of turning out to be correct as Putin has to be considered as a strategic genius or recipient of a future Nobel Peace Prize.
If I could be arsed I'd go back and find my comments from midsummer when I pointed out the great counter-offensive was going nowhere. I even quoted and linked to UKRAINIAN battle-front journalists who were ruefully pointing this out to readers back home
I was loudly shouted down by the usual suspects. Yawn. @Dura_Ace and @DavidL were about the only sensible realists, the rest of the unthinking PB herd bleated as normal
However I have to go visit the Valley of the Temples in Agrigento, so meh
Lol, I remember when you were forecasting that we should all prepare for nuclear Armageddon. You have as much capability in your attempts to be a futurologist as your hero Boris Johnson had as a decision maker.
Why don't you just admit it. You are guessing. You have as much expertise in this area as you do in nuclear physics (or any other area of science for that matter). As for @Dura_Ace he is simply a lickspittle Putin apologist and has been wrong even more often than you.
OF COURSE I'm guessing. But I am much smarter than you (and 96% of PB), so my guesses are much better and more interesting. And much better written
Yes, Baddiel is the oppposite of a hardline Zionist. That's worse than a lie, it's a smear
He is, however, highly alert to the rise of anti-Semitism, and has been for some time. Seems he has a point
"Chilling echoes of the Nazis as 60 Stars of David are spray-painted over buildings in Paris, as France sees spate of anti-Semitism since Israel-Hamas war broke out https://trib.al/VZ5Xmvj"
Since I'm doing pics I find amusing, here are a couple of interesting barriers.
1 - This one looks like a legal tripwire so people going round it can be definitely shown to have done something unauthorised.
2 - Not sure how new this is, but it is unlawful as it will substantially disadvantage many disabled people. Are they planning to build a fence?
3 - This is like 2, but has been there for at least 25 and perhaps 50 years. I think I recall cycling through this on my Raleigh RSW14 at the age of 8. Also unlawful for the same reasons. And a total waste of money / space.
Off now - have a good day all.
I once ran full tilt into a no 3 in the dark, rather painful. Like that one it was painted a colour that doesn't show up in the dark, and if I had a headtorch on, it was pointed more at the ground
I presume the thinking behind 1) is that if they put the fence to the edge of the platform, it risks hitting trains and people can still climb round it?
3) is the kind of thing that was ancient when I was child.
What are the sensible, rational, effective methods for preventing urban paths becoming rat runs for the electric bike Deliveroo types?
Bring back the old country stiles. Try getting a bike over that!
That's fine on a footpath but not on a multi-use route. We have lots of these stupid barriers too and when I'm with a family member on a mobility scooter they have to get off and manoeuvre themselves through the barrier whilst I deconstruct the thing and carry it over. Nuts.
I managed to get a mountain bike over a 10ft deer gate without a stile, so a normal stile is no issue at all if I want to ride somewhere legally dubious. They only really stop motor bikes.
Actually it's not fine on a footpath.
Footpaths are required to be accessible to pedestrians, which includes wheelchairs and mobility aids.
That one looks like a case that no one will worry about - the sharp end is where useful and accessible paths are blocked off.
There's a bizarre one in North London at present where trolls have tried to hijack a consultation about a former railway path called the Parkland Walk, and are trying to keep wheelchairs out because they say Harringey Council want to resurface it all in tarmac and turn it into a "cycle superhighway" (they don't).
By footpath I meant a route across fields - which are unlikely to be wheelchair accessible between stiles in any case. There's plenty of those round here where they are barely accessible to the average pedestrian never mind anyone with wheels.
On a constructed route they should definitely be accessible, I agree.
I once had to write a policy for a hiking club, explaining our approach if a member wished to bring their infant child up the Aonach Eagach. I'm managed to say "nope" in about 500 words.
Lol. One picture of the Crazy Pinnacles might have been enough.
I was Pres of a university hiking club before they were weighed down by such form filling. It was very much a case of arbitrarily refusing to take someone we didn't think was up to it in those days.
I think it was after Lyme Bay that authorities started to take a dim view of "untrained" leaders and thus requiring lots of paperwork even though that accident was down to an official outdoor centre.
I do think it is a bit sad that undergraduates now have to go on a expensive leadership training courses in order to organise a trip to the countryside. And several more very expensive training courses to go anywhere near the Aggy. The club is now a shadow of its former self.
I always thought it was the getting there that was the most dangerous part.
It was still like that when I was running things. We were covered by a combination of the Uni's and SMCs insurance policies, with no questions asked. And getting free Mountain Leader training is great - good backup career (indeed, I'm half considering it if we move back up north).
Agree on the driving - there is a bizarre loophole which allowed 18 year old Eabhal to drive a bus over the Bealach na Ba. Another member got a careless driving charge doing some mad overtake on the Achnasheen road. I miss it all terribly.
Used to co-run the college hiking etc society. Australians delighted when it snowed overnight - that sort of thing. But I jacked it in: one trigger moment was when two chaps from overseas turned up in jeans and trainers despite being asked, got bored with remaining with the main group in mist halfway up a mountain, and headed off ahead sans map - couldn't understand why I was upset with them ... and that was c. 1981. I wouldn't risk it today!
Yes, Baddiel is the oppposite of a hardline Zionist. That's worse than a lie, it's a smear
He is, however, highly alert to the rise of anti-Semitism, and has been for some time. Seems he has a point
"Chilling echoes of the Nazis as 60 Stars of David are spray-painted over buildings in Paris, as France sees spate of anti-Semitism since Israel-Hamas war broke out https://trib.al/VZ5Xmvj"
Its ok - despite the clear smear @bigjohnowls only has to fear being used in a future Baddiel book, not being sued...
However when you say this "His entire pitch is that as a British Jew the state of Israel has literally fuck all to do with him." that is not the case.
His main pitch is that Jews are treated differently to other ethnic minorities. He complains, for instance, non Jews will play Jewish roles on TV and Film but you would not get a white person blacked up, these days, playing a historical black figure for instance.
I’ve been saying Ukraine will end a muddy, Korean style armistice for well over a year, on PB
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
...and you would have been wrong, as there was a massive fallback by RUS to the present lines in around November 2022. However, if you made the more accurate claim of "I’ve been saying Ukraine will end in a muddy, Korean style armistice for around six months, on PB", you would be correct.
I never said what particular frontiers would be established. I predicted a muddy, Korean-style armistice, with the batlelines frozen as they are at the time of the armistice. There is a good chance that will be roughly where they are now. Does either side have the men, money, materiel for another go next spring?
Haven't lots of pundits long been saying an impasse is a likely medium term outcome?
Well, you haven't, as far as I can tell
It's not one of my Hot Topics - predicting how wars will play out - but I think when I have forayed it's been along those lines. Prolonged stalemate. Ukraine unable to drive the Russians out of the country. Russia unable to take much more of it.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 18m Oops. British Library is hosting the AI Fringe associated with the government’s summit
British Library @britishlibrary · 28m We’re experiencing a major technology outage as a result of a cyber incident. This is affecting our website, online systems and services, and some onsite services including public Wi-Fi. We’re currently investigating the incident with @NCSC and other specialists.
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so fae r as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
And you were another twat who was loudly, urgently, frenetically boosting Ukrainian chances as you frotted yourself into a Lithuanian flag, thereby causing yourself to snap your tiny frenulum of Putin-phobia
I'm sorry. I was right. You were wrong. Do send us another earnest emotional adolescently over-wrought 7,000 page essay about the "state of feelings in Rigagrad" or wherever the fuck it is that you live
Since you can't tell the difference between Estonia and Lithuania but are well known for putting yourself into hospital with your compulsive onanism, why don't you just admit that you know the square root of damn all about everything except self pleasure and get lost
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so far as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
[Edit} Good to have you back OGH, hope you are soon fighting fit.
Sadly, Putin just needs to hold on by killing thousands of youngsters in appalling meatgrinder defence, until Trump is elected.
Time is running out.
Totally agree that Russia is a monumental threat to world order now.
Unfortunately, Russia can actually sustain the loss of 1000 men a day, in the crudest possible sense
Russia has a population of 143 million. Over 5000 babies are born every day. 2500 will be boys. It can afford to lose 1000 of them
Not that it will come to this. Ukraine will, I fear, run out of men much sooner: 32 million Ukrainians live in the 2022 Ukraine borders. It is less than a quarter of the size of Russia
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h If the US ends up having to fight/support multiple wars around the globe, it will bear the responsibility because of the slow and limited ways it armed Ukraine. Helping Ukraine win as quickly as possible was always the smart, humane choice. However ‘clever’ policy makers blew it.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but for a few rather nervy moments in 2022 there was concern that this really could escalate into a direct conflict and a nuclear strike.
Now I think a large part of that was Russian bluffing, but the Biden Administration did need to make sure that we didn’t head down the path of uncontrollable escalation. Ratcheting up the support over time was a part of that.
I am sure in hindsight plenty will say “oh there was never any risk, we should just have backed Ukraine to the hilt with all our materiel as soon as they were invaded” but it does not take into account the serious geopolitical implications of that at the time.
"trolley on it" - Cummings - when PM changes mind yet again.
PM changes mind all time.
And on that belter they call for lunch.
Every time I see Cummings I am really sure there was an obscure Viz character who looked just like him, but I can't find it so maybe I am imagining it. Perhaps it is their shared North East roots. Dominic Cummings and his Billionaire-financed Attack on the Establishment would make quite a good Viz strip, anyway.
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so fae r as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
And you were another twat who was loudly, urgently, frenetically boosting Ukrainian chances as you frotted yourself into a Lithuanian flag, thereby causing yourself to snap your tiny frenulum of Putin-phobia
I'm sorry. I was right. You were wrong. Do send us another earnest emotional adolescently over-wrought 7,000 page essay about the "state of feelings in Rigagrad" or wherever the fuck it is that you live
Since you can't tell the difference between Estonia and Lithuania but are well known for putting yourself into hospital with your compulsive onanism, why don't you just admit that you know the square root of damn all about everything except self pleasure and get lost
That was a joke to wind you up even further, in the presumption the joke would go over your head. Heh
Several Rocket Impacts seen in the City of Tel Aviv following the most recent Rocket Barrage from the Gaza Strip; Strangely there were No Interceptions reported during the Attack.
It’s all been rather quiet in the media over the last few weeks, but there’s been a string of days of 1,000 losses for the enemy, alongside a dozen or more tanks and a hundred other vehicles. For how many days can they lose 10 MLRS, and still have any to field? Not that they’re a lot of good now that the defenders have ATACMS (Army TACtical Missile System, as I leaned a few months ago; and pronounced Attack’ems, as I learned a couple of weeks ago) with a massive range advantage, that will quickly push all of the Russian airfields and command posts back to what the Ukranians agree is Russia.
The Russian casualties look unsustainable but the Ukrainians have made no material advances in nearly 2 months. With the risk of ammunition being diverted to Israel the dreaded stalemate is looming.
This guy is pro Ukr but tends to the more verifable facts analysis so often lacking here and elesewhere.
You can't say the much heralded counter-offensive has failed because no objective for it was ever articulated. It seems to have been more of a political construct than a military one. The situation has been a stalemate for six months now as there has not been a significant territorial gain since Artyomovsk/Bakhmut in May.
Quite. As you and I kept gently pointing out to the mad Ukrainian boosters on here. The counter offensive was never going anywhere and never went anywhere
@Sandpit can be forgiven for over optimism. He has family in Ukraine. The rest weren’t using their brains
I’m still optimistic.
The Russian losses, as reported, are at unsustainable levels. They can’t keep losing a dozen tanks, a dozen MLRS, several dozen other vehicles - and 1,000 men - per day. So long as the Ukranians are still receiving weapons and training, they will eventually prevail.
RUS can replace their losses faster than UKR. I still hope that Ukraine may win *but* it requires continued support from the West and a method of attack that focusses on the objective (area occupied), not the peripherals (number of destroyed materiel). If UKR cannot recapture land it will lose. There's no way around this. Destroyed tanks are nice-to-haves, not must-haves.
The number of tanks that the Russians have is not infinite. The staggering death toll on the Russian side is not the sign of a Russian victory. The current situation may be a tactical stalemate, but is turning into a strategic disaster for Russia. There does come a point, as long as the West holds its nerve and continues to back free Ukraine, when the Russian army is simply defeated.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so far as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
[Edit} Good to have you back OGH, hope you are soon fighting fit.
If we need OGH “fighting fit” things must be worse than you are saying…
"trolley on it" - Cummings - when PM changes mind yet again.
PM changes mind all time.
And on that belter they call for lunch.
Every time I see Cummings I am really sure there was an obscure Viz character who looked just like him, but I can't find it so maybe I am imagining it. Perhaps it is their shared North East roots. Dominic Cummings and his Billionaire-financed Attack on the Establishment would make quite a good Viz strip, anyway.
Ha ha no. It's some quite minor character, I just have a really clear picture of it in my mind every time I see Cummings but I have no recollection of who the character was.
Yes, Baddiel is the oppposite of a hardline Zionist. That's worse than a lie, it's a smear
He is, however, highly alert to the rise of anti-Semitism, and has been for some time. Seems he has a point
"Chilling echoes of the Nazis as 60 Stars of David are spray-painted over buildings in Paris, as France sees spate of anti-Semitism since Israel-Hamas war broke out https://trib.al/VZ5Xmvj"
Its ok - despite the clear smear @bigjohnowls only has to fear being used in a future Baddiel book, not being sued...
However when you say this "His entire pitch is that as a British Jew the state of Israel has literally fuck all to do with him." that is not the case.
His main pitch is that Jews are treated differently to other ethnic minorities. He complains, for instance, non Jews will play Jewish roles on TV and Film but you would not get a white person blacked up, these days, playing a historical black figure for instance.
I meant his entire pitch with regards to Israel. He is a passionate advocate for Jewish rights and recognition. But that has nothing to do with Israel.
Comments
Best wishes for a speedy recovery, Mike.
Chris Christie on what Mark Meadows testifying in DC means for Trump: "This is deadly. It's done. He's going to be convicted. It's over."
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1719322754846019974
There was some pointed criticism of the illegal settlements and given the situation bar doing a u-turn on a ceasefire it was about the best he could have done .
what does that even mean?
Something he evidently carried over into policy discussions.
I was Pres of a university hiking club before they were weighed down by such form filling. It was very much a case of arbitrarily refusing to take someone we didn't think was up to it in those days.
I think it was after Lyme Bay that authorities started to take a dim view of "untrained" leaders and thus requiring lots of paperwork even though that accident was down to an official outdoor centre.
I do think it is a bit sad that undergraduates now have to go on a expensive leadership training courses in order to organise a trip to the countryside. And several more very expensive training courses to go anywhere near the Aggy. The club is now a shadow of its former self.
I always thought it was the getting there that was the most dangerous part.
That prediction looks as accurate as ever, right now
Neither side can successfully attack the other, the defences are too strong and offence is too bruising. It’s like NZ v the Boks last Saturday
In Vietnam, the Americans, after trying various things came up with the following - For downed pilots who were closely surrounded by the enemy, they would blanket the area with tear gas. Then while everyone was rolling around on the ground coughing and throwing up, they would come in gas masks and shoot the enemy. The pilots would be in a shit state, but alive.
And we have a lot of disabled and older people benefitting from use of pedelecs, which I think means that such a move would fall foul of equality law.
Rather we will likely have a 3.7mph non-pedalling mode (like pavement mobility scooters) more widely recognised where pedelecs will be recognised as a mobility aid, and gradually a proper network of mobility infrastructure developed which will make the use of e-bikes, e-cooters etc practical, and provide a safe space which is neither road nor footway.
There are huge numbers of problems to address, eg wheelchair spaces on buses being installed to the absolute minimum legal standard, which can only physically accommodate half of wheelchairs. These will be dealt with eventually I am sure.
There's a very important report on 'Accessible Transport:Legal Obligations' due out soon from the Transport Select Committee.
There was an excellent evidence session last week, which is a real eye-opener:
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/510bb1a0-b5ba-497a-b753-b5fc14082a61?_gl=1*qbexnu*_ga*MTkxMDMwMjExNi4xNjk0MTAxOTA0*_ga_L0NJWDWMGN*MTY5ODIzNDgyOC4xMC4wLjE2OTgyMzQ4MjguNjAuMC4w
Summary article:
https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/accessible-transport-laws-are-complex-unclear-and-not-enforced-mps-are-told/
The Americans are exploiting a supreme failing: that Russians just cannot help themselves. They will not withdraw, cannot cede even a single treeline without throwing troops at it. It is some insane macho shit.
America knows this. It is letting the Russian psyche destroy its capacity to undertake warfare, gradually. Ukraine losses in this approach are very painful, but if Russia is unable to undertake offensive warfare operations for a generation - in which time, change might just happen - then we should applaud their sacrifice whilst wondering why the hell America won't give them some better weapons sooner, the better to hasten the process of Russian destruction.
Agree on the driving - there is a bizarre loophole which allowed 18 year old Eabhal to drive a bus over the Bealach na Ba. Another member got a careless driving charge doing some mad overtake on the Achnasheen road. I miss it all terribly.
Doesn't iron his shirts either.
While this might win back Bart’s vote, I can’t see it going down well with the average Tory voter.
But I think the ire directed at cyclists by the usual suspects will end up re-directed to e-bikes specifically, as a kind of of socially acceptable criticism. Let's see.
But the reality is that for those living there on both sides its more emotional, more driven by fear and sometimes hate or revenge, and that what us outsiders want is massively outweighed by what they think they need. And they keep choosing badly on both sides.
Crimea as a warm water port is now lost to Russia. It may have gas to exploit, but otherwise Crimea is a mess to administer, with water dependant upon Ukraine.
A deal that gives Crimea back to Ukraine in return for Russia keeping a slab of the east is probably sellable to Ukraine.
To Moscow? Probably not, at least while Putin is alive.
Not one mention so far, I think, of Cabinet sub-committees which is a key part of the process.
The are these things called all-terrain wheelchairs (including very light ones using mountain bike technology), which were already in use a decade ago when those 3 army veteran amputees beat the self-built Top Gear Team versions to the top of a hill.
No one's going to demand a wheelchair route up Striding Edge or Jacob's Ladder at Edale, but woodlands and much field or hill type landscape is comprehensively accessible already. There are also "all terrain mobility scooters", which have much larger wheels than a street mobility scooter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltauLmYK2mE
Network Rail are currently up before the Planning Inspectorate because they want to replace a pedestrian level crossing at Copmanthorpe with a bridge with steps not ramps because they claim "it is not in an accessible location".
They are up against some of the same people who just help defeat the Ticket Office proposals.
https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/inquiry-hears-of-morally-reprehensible-plans-to-build-inaccessible-footbridge/
That's a pretty small fraction - those who voted for Hamas once are outnumbered 10 to 1 by those who never have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRbyP45LFqk
Whether the lines will be on the Polish border or on the Ukrainian border with the Republic of China is the question. Or somewhere in between.
Leon comes out with his Chicken Licken stories, but is not, so far as I am aware, any kind of professional in these matters, since the gratest danger in his "interesting" life seems to have taken place in a back room in a canal side residence in Bangkok, but like many in the meeja this does not stop him from spreading the greatest ignorance to the greatest number.
If you actually want to understand the unfolding disaster in Russia, I can strongly recommend Arkady Ostrovsky s "Next Year in Moscow" on The Economist´s website.
In the meantime as the dark of the year takes hold in Tallinn, there is grim determination here. This is life or death for us too. Imagine, for example, if UK property prices gave up all their gains form the past ten years because of the war. That has already happened here, and the economy in general is still being hit very hard. We continue on because we have to, and the defeat of a Russia that is becoming every day more openly a fascist state is no longer optional, and that should now be clear to the whole world.
Those that equivocate, as Netanyahu did, are not spared, and Kremlin mischief making is now even leading to threats from Venezuela to Guyanese territorial integrity, as Moscow seeks to distract attention from the flames (literally) consuming Russia by setting things ablaze in any place they can: the Balkans, West Africa, and now, with their Iranian ally, the Holy Land.
[Edit} Good to have you back OGH, hope you are soon fighting fit.
I'm sorry. I was right. You were wrong. Do send us another earnest emotional adolescently over-wrought 7,000 page essay about the "state of feelings in Rigagrad" or wherever the fuck it is that you live
Time is running out.
Totally agree that Russia is a monumental threat to world order now.
His entire pitch is that as a British Jew the state of Israel has literally fuck all to do with him.
https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1205468962345177088
https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1131199529217351681
PM changes mind all time.
And on that belter they call for lunch.
Cummings says over time, the Cabinet Office became "incredibly bloated" and gained both informal and formal power.
He says it was difficult to know who to talk to in the Cabinet Office to get action, which was "critical" in the early months of Covid. The wrong people were in the wrong jobs, he says, but doesn't say who he is referring to. It's a problem he says that worsened with the pandemic.
It will almost certainly never get the Donbas back. It is fairly unlikely to get the other occupied territories back (though this is with decreasing certainty)
For the purposes of clarity, I do not call this a Russian victory. I do not want a Russian victory and I do not believe this IS a victory, not in the long term. Russia has expended vast amounts of blood and treasure to win some impoverished provinces and a slender land bridge to precious Crimea (but it already had Crimea). It has strengthened and unified NATO and now has a vast new NATO border with Finland. The remaining Ukrainian state will now loathe Russia, for generations, meaning Ptuin has created a newly hostile power right on the doorstep. And at the same time the Russian military has been exposed as fairly crap, and Russia has lost a million bright young people to emigration
Medium/long term this is a disaster for Russia
However I am clear headed enough to see where this war has been going for a long time, now, which is: pretty much nowhere
"A good day to bury good news."
The same people who want to kill Jews now wanted to kill @bigjohnowls a couple of years ago. When he was crapping himself in his hotel room he should really have walked outside and screamed Free Palestine at his attackers.
Though it's no excuse for looking so dishevelled.
Russia has a population of 143 million. Over 5000 babies are born every day. 2500 will be boys. It can afford to lose 1000 of them
Not that it will come to this. Ukraine will, I fear, run out of men much sooner: 32 million Ukrainians live in the 2022 Ukraine borders. It is less than a quarter of the size of Russia
Olaf Scholz responding here: https://twitter.com/JPBurgard/status/1719010781541372328
This will all have to end with some kind of political process, I guess, but I just wonder who would have the stomach for it.
I thought the Rory Stewart explainer from a few weeks ago on the Rest of Politics remains very helpful in understanding this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAs5EOBUDcs&ab_channel=TheRestIsPolitics
To go back to David Baddiel being described as a hardline Zionist for a minute. What is the grounds for this?
1. Because Baddiel is an open advocate for Zionism and Israel? We know this is not true - he is *the opposite* of this and openly says Fuck Israel
2. Because Baddiel is a very public figure who writes books in defence of non-Israeli Jews and has "Jew" as the entirety of his Twitter bio
Its 2 isn't it? Baddiel is Jew and therefore is Zionist and therefore is responsible for Israel. Which - and he won't like me pointing it out - is a blatantly anti-semitic position to take...
My impression, like Leon's, is that the war is stalemated, and has been for most of the last year. That could change if Putin's circle decide to give up and chuck him under a bus, or if Trump is elected, but both scenarios are probably less likely that another year of trench warfare.
I was loudly shouted down by the usual suspects. Yawn. @Dura_Ace and @DavidL were about the only sensible realists, the rest of the unthinking PB herd bleated as normal
However I have to go visit the Valley of the Temples in Agrigento, so meh
Phillips P. OBrien
@PhillipsPOBrien
·
4h
If the US ends up having to fight/support multiple wars around the globe, it will bear the responsibility because of the slow and limited ways it armed Ukraine. Helping Ukraine win as quickly as possible was always the smart, humane choice. However ‘clever’ policy makers blew it.
He is, however, highly alert to the rise of anti-Semitism, and has been for some time. Seems he has a point
"Chilling echoes of the Nazis as 60 Stars of David are spray-painted over buildings in Paris, as France sees spate of anti-Semitism since Israel-Hamas war broke out https://trib.al/VZ5Xmvj"
https://x.com/DailyMailUK/status/1719338586535804976?s=20
Australia have pulled out, so there’s only one candidate remaining in the competition…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-12691949/World-Cup-2034-Saudi-Arabia-host-Australia.html
Why don't you just admit it. You are guessing. You have as much expertise in this area as you do in nuclear physics (or any other area of science for that matter). As for @Dura_Ace he is simply a lickspittle Putin apologist and has been wrong even more often than you.
So we'll more than likely stay bottom.
There will be a longer deadline for owners to ensure the dogs are neutered and microchipped.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67273889
Starting March 2024, all these people will be buying Bully XXXXLs instead...
Ciao
"Can you host 64 football matches over the course of a month at decent sized stadiums?"
"Yes, we do it most months in our domestic league, so not a problem at all."
"Cracking - the gig's yours."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qeWbC7XtO0
His main pitch is that Jews are treated differently to other ethnic minorities. He complains, for instance, non Jews will play Jewish roles on TV and Film but you would not get a white person blacked up, these days, playing a historical black figure for instance.
@JohnRentoul
·
18m
Oops. British Library is hosting the AI Fringe associated with the government’s summit
British Library
@britishlibrary
·
28m
We’re experiencing a major technology outage as a result of a cyber incident. This is affecting our website, online systems and services, and some onsite services including public Wi-Fi. We’re currently investigating the incident with @NCSC and other specialists.
Now I think a large part of that was Russian bluffing, but the Biden Administration did need to make sure that we didn’t head down the path of uncontrollable escalation. Ratcheting up the support over time was a part of that.
I am sure in hindsight plenty will say “oh there was never any risk, we should just have backed Ukraine to the hilt with all our materiel as soon as they were invaded” but it does not take into account the serious geopolitical implications of that at the time.
My God, the government has actually done something, and done it rather quickly
I'm a pretty fierce critic of Sunak and Co, but well done them. And well done for facing down the weird hellhound loving creeps at the RSPCA
https://viz.fandom.com/wiki/Johnny_Fartpants
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1719338131508322658?s=20
😉