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Mid Beds betting latest – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,074
    edited October 2023

    A question for the PB Brains trust.

    Rishi Sunak said today "“This is now the third deadliest terror attack in the world since 1970. The United Kingdom must and will continue to stand in solidarity with Israel.”

    I assume 9/11 is the deadliest but I am struggling to think of another terrorist attack that has killed more than 1200 people since 1970. What am I forgetting? Or is Sunak wrong?

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1330395/deadliest-terrorist-attacks-worldwide-fatalities/
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_and_other_violent_events_by_death_toll#Non-state_terrorist_attacks

    I think it's this one

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Speicher_massacre
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    carnforth said:

    Is Piers Morgan a Labour person? He is very pro Starmer on QT

    Well, he used to edit the Mirror.
    That’s true. Was also Editor of the News of the Screws for a time though, not sure it really says much.
    In his day, he was very pro-(New)Labour. A Campbell like figure (when Campbell was in the press).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Andy_JS said:

    Has any media organisation ever travelled as far along the political spectrum as Sky News? It started out as populist centre-right channel and now it's woke/left-wing.

    Is it? Seems pretty centrist/neutral to me.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,410
    Leon said:

    Yokes said:

    A Hamas official, on record, says that none of atrocities committed at the weekend were done by Hamas forces. All done by 'other Gazans' apparently....

    Strange that, as Hamas seemed well pleased with it all at the weekend.

    Actually, and perhaps weirdly, I believe this

    Hamas is not insane. It is surely evil, but it is not insane. They have just scored the biggest political own-goal in recent history. Slaughtering babies? Shooting pensioners? Raping kidnapped girls and filming it? Mowing down young festival goers? Tearing embryos out of pregnant women and stabbing them??

    Sweet merciful Allah, I do not believe this is what they wanted. They wanted a heroic prison break out and a LOT of dead Israeli soldiers = good PR. Instead, by accident, they made more breaches in the wall than they needed and a lot of low level Hamas squaddies, or just basic Jew-hating lads with guns, got out of the enclave - estimates say 1500 - and these kids WERE filled with a hideous bloodlust which ended in the atrocities we see

    It is a catastrophe for Hamas. Gaza will now be levelled and they are finished. The world will lament, but let it happen. Hamas is done
    I believe they absolutely want it.

    In their eyes if Israel is provoked to destroy Gaza then the Middle East will unite to destroy Israel and the "hated Jews" will be wiped from the face of the earth. They will all die as holy martyrs and be rewarded in paradise.

    That's exactly the thinking, IMHO.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Leon said:

    Yokes said:

    A Hamas official, on record, says that none of atrocities committed at the weekend were done by Hamas forces. All done by 'other Gazans' apparently....

    Strange that, as Hamas seemed well pleased with it all at the weekend.

    Actually, and perhaps weirdly, I believe this

    Hamas is not insane. It is surely evil, but it is not insane. They have just scored the biggest political own-goal in recent history. Slaughtering babies? Shooting pensioners? Raping kidnapped girls and filming it? Mowing down young festival goers? Tearing embryos out of pregnant women and stabbing them??

    Sweet merciful Allah, I do not believe this is what they wanted. They wanted a heroic prison break out and a LOT of dead Israeli soldiers = good PR. Instead, by accident, they made more breaches in the wall than they needed and a lot of low level Hamas squaddies, or just basic Jew-hating lads with guns, got out of the enclave - estimates say 1500 - and these kids WERE filled with a hideous bloodlust which ended in the atrocities we see

    It is a catastrophe for Hamas. Gaza will now be levelled and they are finished. The world will lament, but let it happen. Hamas is done
    I believe they absolutely want it.

    In their eyes if Israel is provoked to destroy Gaza then the Middle East will unite to destroy Israel and the "hated Jews" will be wiped from the face of the earth. They will all die as holy martyrs and be rewarded in paradise.

    That's exactly the thinking, IMHO.
    I think this is spot on.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,410
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    I don’t know a single person who is anti -Semitic but apparently by gobby in here if you’re pro Palestinian you must be a Jew hater .

    The debate becomes very polarized because some can’t accept that you can just simply want a two state solution where both Jews and Palestinians can live in peace .

    The whole cycle of violence is so depressing .

    How many fewer wars and conflicts would we have if we could abolish religion?
    True . Religion has a lot to answer for . If the whole world followed humanism we’d be in a much better place .
    Humanism? A dull, boring, 'we are the world' creed. Even Common Worship and 'Shine Jesus Shine' is more interesting with more depth.

    People need mystique. A Latin Mass or Evensong in a great cathedral or humanist readings in some dull hall? No contest.

    Even the Nuremberg rallies with the torches and fiery oratory would have been more interesting than a humanist event (hence why we need proper religion to ensure the passions don't go in the wrong direction)
    It's "Imagine" as a manifesto. If I want moral lessons, they certainly won't be coming from John Lennon.
    I think the song is complete shit.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    edited October 2023


    The Daily Telegraph prints one of the photos.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023

    Leon said:

    Yokes said:

    A Hamas official, on record, says that none of atrocities committed at the weekend were done by Hamas forces. All done by 'other Gazans' apparently....

    Strange that, as Hamas seemed well pleased with it all at the weekend.

    Actually, and perhaps weirdly, I believe this

    Hamas is not insane. It is surely evil, but it is not insane. They have just scored the biggest political own-goal in recent history. Slaughtering babies? Shooting pensioners? Raping kidnapped girls and filming it? Mowing down young festival goers? Tearing embryos out of pregnant women and stabbing them??

    Sweet merciful Allah, I do not believe this is what they wanted. They wanted a heroic prison break out and a LOT of dead Israeli soldiers = good PR. Instead, by accident, they made more breaches in the wall than they needed and a lot of low level Hamas squaddies, or just basic Jew-hating lads with guns, got out of the enclave - estimates say 1500 - and these kids WERE filled with a hideous bloodlust which ended in the atrocities we see

    It is a catastrophe for Hamas. Gaza will now be levelled and they are finished. The world will lament, but let it happen. Hamas is done
    I believe they absolutely want it.

    In their eyes if Israel is provoked to destroy Gaza then the Middle East will unite to destroy Israel and the "hated Jews" will be wiped from the face of the earth. They will all die as holy martyrs and be rewarded in paradise.

    That's exactly the thinking, IMHO.
    Not only thinking, they say it out loud.

    Hamas leadership was on RT where they openly said "The Israelis love life, we, on the other hand, sacrifice ourselves. We consider our dead to be martyrs. The thing any Palestinian desire the most is to be matyred for the sake of Allah...." and it goes on (it is a hell of a lot easier to say this stuff from a nice studio in Qatar)

    They also said they have been planning this for 2 years.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mid Bedfordshire looks like the first genuinely 3 way by election for some time. Any of the Tories, Labour or LDs could win it

    My gut is saying the LDs will have lost momentum, its all about Labour right now.

    Batley was three way thanks to Galloway?
    What about the formidable LD by-election machine that was able to come from third place in North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton?
    I think the Lib Dems can only win from third place if Labour lets them. Labour haven't let them in mid Beds.

    Lib Dems were quick off the mark and odds on favourite to start with, but once Labour put the effort in it was clear to me that this was a hard slog for the Lib Dems.

    I hope the Lib Dems win but if they don't, and I don't think they will, I hope the Tories win. Not out of spite but to show Labour they can't just barge in without risk of giving it to the Tories.

    In practice, in the GE, there will be very few mid Beds. But there will be some like Wimbledon, where Lib Dems came second last time that Labour might be tempted to have a go. A loss to the Tories in mid Beds might deter them.
    I'm not particularly anti-LD (not least as I'm in coalition with them), but my perception is that it was the LibDems that just barged in, when it was, as you say, unlikely that they'd win from 12.6% and third place. To barge in AND expect the second-placed party not to bother was just arrogant. That's the lesson that most people would draw, I think. But I think the position will be quite different where the LibDems are second.

    Anyway, we've not lost yet!
    It was self-defeating both parties going for it. FPP simply doesn’t work like that and you both deserve to lose for the hubris on show. That said, I hope Labour do win, but part of me thinks both opposition parties need teaching an important lesson for the future.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    I don’t know a single person who is anti -Semitic but apparently by gobby in here if you’re pro Palestinian you must be a Jew hater .

    The debate becomes very polarized because some can’t accept that you can just simply want a two state solution where both Jews and Palestinians can live in peace .

    The whole cycle of violence is so depressing .

    How many fewer wars and conflicts would we have if we could abolish religion?
    True . Religion has a lot to answer for . If the whole world followed humanism we’d be in a much better place .
    Humanism? A dull, boring, 'we are the world' creed. Even Common Worship and 'Shine Jesus Shine' is more interesting with more depth.

    People need mystique. A Latin Mass or Evensong in a great cathedral or humanist readings in some dull hall? No contest.

    Even the Nuremberg rallies with the torches and fiery oratory would have been more interesting than a humanist event (hence why we need proper religion to ensure the passions don't go in the wrong direction)
    It's "Imagine" as a manifesto. If I want moral lessons, they certainly won't be coming from John Lennon.
    I think the song is complete shit.
    If you think Imagine is shit, you need to listen to Yoko Ono's work. That makes it look like a masterpiece.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Andy_JS said:

    Has any media organisation ever travelled as far along the political spectrum as Sky News? It started out as populist centre-right channel and now it's woke/left-wing.

    Spiked was formerly Living Marxism...now is anti-Brexit, free speech, anti-woke, centre-right.
    It’s strongly pro-Brexit, not anti.

    And I’d call it rightwing rather than centre-right, on most issues (there are some exceptions, where it’s leftwing)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    Has any media organisation ever travelled as far along the political spectrum as Sky News? It started out as populist centre-right channel and now it's woke/left-wing.

    Spiked was formerly Living Marxism...now is anti-Brexit, free speech, anti-woke, centre-right.
    It’s strongly pro-Brexit, not anti.

    And I’d call it rightwing rather than centre-right, on most issues (there are some exceptions, where it’s leftwing)
    Yes, sorry it was "typo". They often sound more pro-Brexit than Nigel Farage....

    They are genuinely quite an uninteresting bunch to be honest. If you know what everybody is going to say on every issue before they open their mouth, its all a bit tedious.

    Most of the time, its all Brexit or woke stuff, with some freedom of speech / anti-cancel culture thrown in.

    I never familiarised myself with Living Marxism, but I presume that was a bit spicier.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Andy_JS said:

    Has any media organisation ever travelled as far along the political spectrum as Sky News? It started out as populist centre-right channel and now it's woke/left-wing.

    Spiked was formerly Living Marxism...now is anti-Brexit, free speech, anti-woke, centre-right.
    It’s strongly pro-Brexit, not anti.

    And I’d call it rightwing rather than centre-right, on most issues (there are some exceptions, where it’s leftwing)
    Yes, sorry it was "typo". They often sound more pro-Brexit than Nigel Farage....

    They are genuinely quite an uninteresting bunch to be honest. If you know what everybody is going to say on every issue before they open their mouth, its all a bit tedious.

    Most of the time, its all Brexit or woke stuff, with some freedom of speech / anti-cancel culture thrown in.

    I never familiarised myself with Living Marxism, but I presume that was a bit spicier.
    I used to read Spiked regularly for a different point of view, but reduced massively for exactly the reasons you state: you can predict what they are going to say about pretty much anything. It gets quite dull.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Leon said:

    Yokes said:

    A Hamas official, on record, says that none of atrocities committed at the weekend were done by Hamas forces. All done by 'other Gazans' apparently....

    Strange that, as Hamas seemed well pleased with it all at the weekend.

    Actually, and perhaps weirdly, I believe this

    Hamas is not insane. It is surely evil, but it is not insane. They have just scored the biggest political own-goal in recent history. Slaughtering babies? Shooting pensioners? Raping kidnapped girls and filming it? Mowing down young festival goers? Tearing embryos out of pregnant women and stabbing them??

    Sweet merciful Allah, I do not believe this is what they wanted. They wanted a heroic prison break out and a LOT of dead Israeli soldiers = good PR. Instead, by accident, they made more breaches in the wall than they needed and a lot of low level Hamas squaddies, or just basic Jew-hating lads with guns, got out of the enclave - estimates say 1500 - and these kids WERE filled with a hideous bloodlust which ended in the atrocities we see

    It is a catastrophe for Hamas. Gaza will now be levelled and they are finished. The world will lament, but let it happen. Hamas is done
    I believe they absolutely want it.

    In their eyes if Israel is provoked to destroy Gaza then the Middle East will unite to destroy Israel and the "hated Jews" will be wiped from the face of the earth. They will all die as holy martyrs and be rewarded in paradise.

    That's exactly the thinking, IMHO.
    Not only thinking, they say it out loud.

    Hamas leadership was on RT where they openly said "The Israelis love life, we, on the other hand, sacrifice ourselves. We consider our dead to be martyrs. The thing any Palestinian desire the most is to be matyred for the sake of Allah...." and it goes on (it is a hell of a lot easier to say this stuff from a nice studio in Qatar)

    They also said they have been planning this for 2 years.
    10% of Palestinians are Christian not Muslim
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Yokes said:

    A Hamas official, on record, says that none of atrocities committed at the weekend were done by Hamas forces. All done by 'other Gazans' apparently....

    Strange that, as Hamas seemed well pleased with it all at the weekend.

    Actually, and perhaps weirdly, I believe this

    Hamas is not insane. It is surely evil, but it is not insane. They have just scored the biggest political own-goal in recent history. Slaughtering babies? Shooting pensioners? Raping kidnapped girls and filming it? Mowing down young festival goers? Tearing embryos out of pregnant women and stabbing them??

    Sweet merciful Allah, I do not believe this is what they wanted. They wanted a heroic prison break out and a LOT of dead Israeli soldiers = good PR. Instead, by accident, they made more breaches in the wall than they needed and a lot of low level Hamas squaddies, or just basic Jew-hating lads with guns, got out of the enclave - estimates say 1500 - and these kids WERE filled with a hideous bloodlust which ended in the atrocities we see

    It is a catastrophe for Hamas. Gaza will now be levelled and they are finished. The world will lament, but let it happen. Hamas is done
    I believe they absolutely want it.

    In their eyes if Israel is provoked to destroy Gaza then the Middle East will unite to destroy Israel and the "hated Jews" will be wiped from the face of the earth. They will all die as holy martyrs and be rewarded in paradise.

    That's exactly the thinking, IMHO.
    Not only thinking, they say it out loud.

    Hamas leadership was on RT where they openly said "The Israelis love life, we, on the other hand, sacrifice ourselves. We consider our dead to be martyrs. The thing any Palestinian desire the most is to be matyred for the sake of Allah...." and it goes on (it is a hell of a lot easier to say this stuff from a nice studio in Qatar)

    They also said they have been planning this for 2 years.
    10% of Palestinians are Christian not Muslim
    I doubt Hamas leadership are talking about those people.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    Has any media organisation ever travelled as far along the political spectrum as Sky News? It started out as populist centre-right channel and now it's woke/left-wing.

    Spiked was formerly Living Marxism...now is anti-Brexit, free speech, anti-woke, centre-right.
    It’s strongly pro-Brexit, not anti.

    And I’d call it rightwing rather than centre-right, on most issues (there are some exceptions, where it’s leftwing)
    Yes, sorry it was "typo". They often sound more pro-Brexit than Nigel Farage....

    They are genuinely quite an uninteresting bunch to be honest. If you know what everybody is going to say on every issue before they open their mouth, its all a bit tedious.

    Most of the time, its all Brexit or woke stuff, with some freedom of speech / anti-cancel culture thrown in.

    I never familiarised myself with Living Marxism, but I presume that was a bit spicier.
    I used to read Spiked regularly for a different point of view, but reduced massively for exactly the reasons you state: you can predict what they are going to say about pretty much anything. It gets quite dull.
    After Brexit, Trump, COVID, I am struggling to think of outlets or individuals where you now get nuanced takes that can surprise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Leon said:

    Yokes said:

    A Hamas official, on record, says that none of atrocities committed at the weekend were done by Hamas forces. All done by 'other Gazans' apparently....

    Strange that, as Hamas seemed well pleased with it all at the weekend.

    Actually, and perhaps weirdly, I believe this

    Hamas is not insane. It is surely evil, but it is not insane. They have just scored the biggest political own-goal in recent history. Slaughtering babies? Shooting pensioners? Raping kidnapped girls and filming it? Mowing down young festival goers? Tearing embryos out of pregnant women and stabbing them??

    Sweet merciful Allah, I do not believe this is what they wanted. They wanted a heroic prison break out and a LOT of dead Israeli soldiers = good PR. Instead, by accident, they made more breaches in the wall than they needed and a lot of low level Hamas squaddies, or just basic Jew-hating lads with guns, got out of the enclave - estimates say 1500 - and these kids WERE filled with a hideous bloodlust which ended in the atrocities we see

    It is a catastrophe for Hamas. Gaza will now be levelled and they are finished. The world will lament, but let it happen. Hamas is done
    I believe they absolutely want it.

    In their eyes if Israel is provoked to destroy Gaza then the Middle East will unite to destroy Israel and the "hated Jews" will be wiped from the face of the earth. They will all die as holy martyrs and be rewarded in paradise.

    That's exactly the thinking, IMHO.
    Won't happen on earth as Israel as 1948 and the Yom Kippur war showed has a superior military and now almost certainly nuclear weapons too
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    There has been a notable uptick in the use of artillery by the Israelis around Gaza this evening. More widespread across the front.

    When Israel says it aims to destroy Hamas it means every asset; military, civil administrative & economic associated with Hamas is being struck.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Yokes said:

    There has been a notable uptick in the use of artillery by the Israelis around Gaza this evening. More widespread across the front.

    When Israel says it aims to destroy Hamas it means every asset; military, civil administrative & economic associated with Hamas is being struck.

    How long is it likely to take?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    edited October 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Yokes said:

    There has been a notable uptick in the use of artillery by the Israelis around Gaza this evening. More widespread across the front.

    When Israel says it aims to destroy Hamas it means every asset; military, civil administrative & economic associated with Hamas is being struck.

    How long is it likely to take?
    Depends on the objective. They wont eliminate the movement but they can put their military and other capacities back years (and probably have already) Hamas isnt just in Gaza but it is their centerpiece.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,410
    .
    Yokes said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Yokes said:

    There has been a notable uptick in the use of artillery by the Israelis around Gaza this evening. More widespread across the front.

    When Israel says it aims to destroy Hamas it means every asset; military, civil administrative & economic associated with Hamas is being struck.

    How long is it likely to take?
    Depends on the objective. They wont eliminate the movement but they can put their military and other capacities back years (and probably have already) Hamas isnt just in Gaza but it is their centerpiece.
    I presume Israel intend to occupy and police Gaza thereafter and, in my view, rightly so.
  • Rishi Sunak’s approval rating fell to record low after party conferences

    Rishi Sunak’s popularity has fallen to a record low since the Conservative Party conference, according to polling for The Times.

    The YouGov survey found that only 20 per cent of voters believed Sunak would make the best prime minister, down five points in a week.

    This is his lowest approval rating since he entered Downing Street last year and will concern Tory strategists trying to present him as the candidate of change at the next election.

    Sir Keir Starmer’s rating fell by two points, to 32 per cent. Highlighting the uncertainty among voters a year before the likely date of the next election, 43 per cent of voters said they were not sure who would make the best leader.

    The poll, conducted after Starmer’s keynote speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Tuesday, suggested that, overall, Labour had seen a modest bounce in support.

    Asked whether they thought Starmer had a clear plan for the country, 28 per cent of voters said that he did — up six points on last week. This compared with 19 per cent who said that Sunak had a clear plan, down two points.

    On the question of whether a Labour government would make a significant change, 47 per cent agreed that it would compared with 37 per cent who said it would not. Only 25 per cent said that Sunak’s plans would represent a change — down five points in a week.

    Labour has increased its overall poll lead on the Tories by two points. Just under half of all voters, 47 per cent, said that they would vote Labour in a general election tomorrow, compared with 24 per cent who they would back the Tories. This increase in Labour’s vote share was at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, who were down two points to 9 per cent.

    The poll will worry senior Tories who had hoped to use Sunak’s speech last week to contrast him favourably with Starmer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-polls-approval-rating-3v6f5t7gv
  • Humza Yousaf is set to overhaul his plan to achieve independence by going into the next general election arguing that winning a majority of seats would be a mandate for independence.

    The SNP leader is expected to support a plan to set the bar for talks at 29 seats, rather than simply winning the largest number of seats.

    The party’s independence strategy has been mired in confusion since judges ruled that Holyrood could not hold a referendum on independence without Westminster’s consent.

    It is thought that SNP delegates attending the party conference in Aberdeen this weekend will back the switch, the second reversal in policy this year.

    A senior SNP source said the change would provide “a clearer message for the voters to understand” and it conferred “a greater legitimacy on the result than winning the biggest number of seats next year”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/humza-yousaf-eyes-29-seat-target-for-scottish-independence-talks-dnc0fmnkx
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The train tracks of atheism run directly to the gates of Auschwitz

    Sorry, but they do. The short history of atheism - Stalin, Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Pol Pot, Castro, arguably Hitler - is over-burdened with human corpses. Mankind is wired to believe, and we are better when that intrinsic need for faith attaches to a God who imposes a basic morality

    Thirty years war says 'hi'.
    Mao says lol. Killed 50m in a few years of atheist crankery about sparrows

    Thirty Years War doesn't really compete
    "The Thirty Years’ War is thought to have claimed between 4 and 12 million lives. Around 450,000 people died in combat. Disease and famine took the lion’s share of the death toll. Estimates suggest that 20% of Europe’s people perished, with some areas seeing their population fall by as much as 60%.

    These figures are remarkably high, even by 17th century standards. By comparison, the First World War – including the post-armistice outbreak of Spanish Flu – claimed 5% of Europe’s population. The only comparable example was Soviet losses during the Second World War, which amounted to 12% of the USSR’s population. The Thirty Years’ War took an immense human toll, with significant, long-lasting impacts on marriage and birth rates."

    https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2017/05/23/thirty-years-war-first-modern-war/#:~:text=The human toll,by as much as 60%.
    Depending on how you group or stack them up, the interrelated conflicts in Central Africa/Kivu/Great Lakes areas since the 90s - even excluding the Rwandan genocide - have caused many millions of deaths and resemble in a way the Thirty Years War, albeit fuelled by scrambling for resources, state meddling, criminality and ethnic tension more so than religion.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited October 2023
    I'm wondering whether Joanna Cherry might also defect, not to the Tories, but away from the SNP, perhaps to independent. Just speculation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,410

    Rishi Sunak’s approval rating fell to record low after party conferences

    Rishi Sunak’s popularity has fallen to a record low since the Conservative Party conference, according to polling for The Times.

    The YouGov survey found that only 20 per cent of voters believed Sunak would make the best prime minister, down five points in a week.

    This is his lowest approval rating since he entered Downing Street last year and will concern Tory strategists trying to present him as the candidate of change at the next election.

    Sir Keir Starmer’s rating fell by two points, to 32 per cent. Highlighting the uncertainty among voters a year before the likely date of the next election, 43 per cent of voters said they were not sure who would make the best leader.

    The poll, conducted after Starmer’s keynote speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Tuesday, suggested that, overall, Labour had seen a modest bounce in support.

    Asked whether they thought Starmer had a clear plan for the country, 28 per cent of voters said that he did — up six points on last week. This compared with 19 per cent who said that Sunak had a clear plan, down two points.

    On the question of whether a Labour government would make a significant change, 47 per cent agreed that it would compared with 37 per cent who said it would not. Only 25 per cent said that Sunak’s plans would represent a change — down five points in a week.

    Labour has increased its overall poll lead on the Tories by two points. Just under half of all voters, 47 per cent, said that they would vote Labour in a general election tomorrow, compared with 24 per cent who they would back the Tories. This increase in Labour’s vote share was at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, who were down two points to 9 per cent.

    The poll will worry senior Tories who had hoped to use Sunak’s speech last week to contrast him favourably with Starmer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-polls-approval-rating-3v6f5t7gv

    ADVANCED BRITISH STANDARD.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348

    Humza Yousaf is set to overhaul his plan to achieve independence by going into the next general election arguing that winning a majority of seats would be a mandate for independence.

    The SNP leader is expected to support a plan to set the bar for talks at 29 seats, rather than simply winning the largest number of seats.

    The party’s independence strategy has been mired in confusion since judges ruled that Holyrood could not hold a referendum on independence without Westminster’s consent.

    It is thought that SNP delegates attending the party conference in Aberdeen this weekend will back the switch, the second reversal in policy this year.

    A senior SNP source said the change would provide “a clearer message for the voters to understand” and it conferred “a greater legitimacy on the result than winning the biggest number of seats next year”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/humza-yousaf-eyes-29-seat-target-for-scottish-independence-talks-dnc0fmnkx

    How does that help them?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The train tracks of atheism run directly to the gates of Auschwitz

    Sorry, but they do. The short history of atheism - Stalin, Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Pol Pot, Castro, arguably Hitler - is over-burdened with human corpses. Mankind is wired to believe, and we are better when that intrinsic need for faith attaches to a God who imposes a basic morality

    Thirty years war says 'hi'.
    Mao says lol. Killed 50m in a few years of atheist crankery about sparrows

    Thirty Years War doesn't really compete
    "The Thirty Years’ War is thought to have claimed between 4 and 12 million lives. Around 450,000 people died in combat. Disease and famine took the lion’s share of the death toll. Estimates suggest that 20% of Europe’s people perished, with some areas seeing their population fall by as much as 60%.

    These figures are remarkably high, even by 17th century standards. By comparison, the First World War – including the post-armistice outbreak of Spanish Flu – claimed 5% of Europe’s population. The only comparable example was Soviet losses during the Second World War, which amounted to 12% of the USSR’s population. The Thirty Years’ War took an immense human toll, with significant, long-lasting impacts on marriage and birth rates."

    https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2017/05/23/thirty-years-war-first-modern-war/#:~:text=The human toll,by as much as 60%.
    Depending on how you group or stack them up, the interrelated conflicts in Central Africa/Kivu/Great Lakes areas since the 90s - even excluding the Rwandan genocide - have caused many millions of deaths and resemble in a way the Thirty Years War, albeit fuelled by scrambling for resources, state meddling, criminality and ethnic tension more so than religion.
    The Thirty Years War was bracketed by the Time of Troubles in Russia, and The Deluge in Poland/Lithuania, which cost millions of lives. Add in the violence in the British Isles, and the wars between Austria, Venice, and the Ottomans, and the Ottomans and Persia, the wars waged by Aurangzeb and Louis XIV, the war to overthrow the Ming Dynasty in China, the European Witch Craze, it was a time of insane violence.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647

    Rishi Sunak’s approval rating fell to record low after party conferences

    Rishi Sunak’s popularity has fallen to a record low since the Conservative Party conference, according to polling for The Times.

    The YouGov survey found that only 20 per cent of voters believed Sunak would make the best prime minister, down five points in a week.

    This is his lowest approval rating since he entered Downing Street last year and will concern Tory strategists trying to present him as the candidate of change at the next election.

    Sir Keir Starmer’s rating fell by two points, to 32 per cent. Highlighting the uncertainty among voters a year before the likely date of the next election, 43 per cent of voters said they were not sure who would make the best leader.

    The poll, conducted after Starmer’s keynote speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Tuesday, suggested that, overall, Labour had seen a modest bounce in support.

    Asked whether they thought Starmer had a clear plan for the country, 28 per cent of voters said that he did — up six points on last week. This compared with 19 per cent who said that Sunak had a clear plan, down two points.

    On the question of whether a Labour government would make a significant change, 47 per cent agreed that it would compared with 37 per cent who said it would not. Only 25 per cent said that Sunak’s plans would represent a change — down five points in a week.

    Labour has increased its overall poll lead on the Tories by two points. Just under half of all voters, 47 per cent, said that they would vote Labour in a general election tomorrow, compared with 24 per cent who they would back the Tories. This increase in Labour’s vote share was at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, who were down two points to 9 per cent.

    The poll will worry senior Tories who had hoped to use Sunak’s speech last week to contrast him favourably with Starmer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-polls-approval-rating-3v6f5t7gv

    ADVANCED BRITISH STANDARD.
    Naming your flagship policy after a system designed to prevent a massive car crash seems rather apt.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Some interesting religion/transport stats:

    Jews are 2.5x more likely to cycle to work than Muslims, compared with 0.5x for using the bus. Driving is roughly the same, but Jews are 1.5x more likely to walk or use the tube/tram/metro. The London effect?

    Jews also have the highest rates of working at home of all groups at 55% compared with 31% for all workers in England and Wales. The least likely are Muslims at 23%.

    Across all religions, rates of driving are roughly the same as "no religion". The starkest difference is on bus and tube/tram/metro, while the non-religious walk and cycle more.

    *This is religion rather than race. I appreciate this is blurred in some cases.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    New thread.

    Sorry.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Eabhal said:

    Some interesting religion/transport stats:

    Jews are 2.5x more likely to cycle to work than Muslims, compared with 0.5x for using the bus. Driving is roughly the same, but Jews are 1.5x more likely to walk or use the tube/tram/metro. The London effect?

    Jews also have the highest rates of working at home of all groups at 55% compared with 31% for all workers in England and Wales. The least likely are Muslims at 23%.

    Across all religions, rates of driving are roughly the same as "no religion". The starkest difference is on bus and tube/tram/metro, while the non-religious walk and cycle more.

    *This is religion rather than race. I appreciate this is blurred in some cases.

    The biggest cyclists are Buddhists - 5x more likely than Sikhs, who happen to be the most likely to drive to work. Hindus are keen on trains...

    I can't spot anything interesting about Christians. Cycling and motorcycling are the least religious forms of transport, despite the constant proximity of death. Tube/tram/metro & bus the most.

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The train tracks of atheism run directly to the gates of Auschwitz

    Sorry, but they do. The short history of atheism - Stalin, Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Pol Pot, Castro, arguably Hitler - is over-burdened with human corpses. Mankind is wired to believe, and we are better when that intrinsic need for faith attaches to a God who imposes a basic morality

    Thirty years war says 'hi'.
    Mao says lol. Killed 50m in a few years of atheist crankery about sparrows

    Thirty Years War doesn't really compete
    Mao didn't kill anyone in the name of atheism. He killed in the name of communism, get it right.

    And the communists killed for the same reason that theists have over the ages.

    The problem is an absolute and unquestioning belief in any authority, whether it be religious or party, and demand absolute devotion and loyalty.

    Trump is exactly the same.

    Anyone or anything that requires you to set aside your critical faculties in order to be 'faithful' is not worth following.
    Mao definitely did murder people in the name of atheism, both during the Tibetan campaigns and in the Cultural Revolution where it was one of the Four Olds.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 930
    Betfair, Mid Beds, odds on Labour and Cons starting to drift, Lib Dems starting to come back in
This discussion has been closed.