I had my Covid booster this morning, eligible due to age. Mrs Al, far too young to be eligible, accompanied me. She asked if she could be jabbed. They said no, unless you're a carer. She said she cared for me (which she doesn't, in the sense meant). So she got jabbed. They don't seem too bothered about the rules.
I've heard of this happening with other people. I can't see a problem with it, provided they have lots of spare vaccines.
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
I have posted in here previously that I don't expect interest rates to fall significantly or even at all over the next 2 to 3 years. Inflation remains a problem and will remain intransigent than some expect. It MAY even be necessary for Bank of England to raise rates further early 2024 if CPI Dec 2023 is not what is hoped for.
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
I have posted in here previously that I don't expect interest rates to fall significantly or even at all over the next 2 to 3 years. Inflation remains a problem and will remain intransigent than some expect. It MAY even be necessary for Bank of England to raise rates further early 2024 if CPI Dec 2023 is not what is hoped for.
I have no special expertise in this area!
DYOR DYOR DYOR good luck with it 👍
Everything is the same, until it changes, and then it's the same again. Everybody was surprised when interest rates went to near-zero and expected them to rise, but they stayed low for a decade. Similarly now.
Who's side is Saudi Arabia on? I thought they were moving towards normalising relations with Israel? Instead they have normalised with Iran under the facilitation of China. They cut oil production possibly in an effort to help Putin. Their statement after the attacks by Hamas were feeble. Barely had Israel begun to respond before Saudi called an end to normalising relations with Israel. Almost as if they couldn't wait to do so.
Gas prices also spiking after the attack on Finland/Estonia. Cui bono? Are Saudi and Iran really arch enemies?
Everyone has been talking to everyone in the last few years, in an attempt to prioritise trade over conflict. It’s been brilliant to see, until last Saturday.
Most of it has been classic Sunni/Shia conflict, with Iran and Qatar on one side, and the other Gulf states on the other. It was only a few years ago that Qatar was sanctioned by her neighbours for funding the Iranians fighting in Yemen, but since then we thought that good progress was being made all around.
It’s thought that the forthcoming Saudi-Israel talks might have been a motivation for this week’s attacks on Israel.
And Saudi have been very happy to quickly distance themselves from Israel but don't seem at all upset with Iran for funding Hamas. Relations between Iran and Egypt remain stone cold. Maybe that will be China's next project.
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
The obvious response is that they peak over the winter and start slowly sliding after that, but there’s one hell of a margin in there.
It’s not difficult to either imagine a couple of years of major war and conflict in oil-producing regions causing huge inflation again, but also not difficult to imagine a state of peace
I’d say most of the risk is on the upside for rates. If they’re 5% now they’re almost certainly going to be in a 4%-6% range in two years’ time, but with perhaps a 10% chance of them being 8%
(All numbers are made-up total bollocks, and from the top of my head right now, I am not a financial advisor etc).
The important fact to factor into any personal assessment is how badly they all got burnt on the fixed terms they had been giving out.
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
I have posted in here previously that I don't expect interest rates to fall significantly or even at all over the next 2 to 3 years. Inflation remains a problem and will remain intransigent than some expect. It MAY even be necessary for Bank of England to raise rates further early 2024 if CPI Dec 2023 is not what is hoped for.
I have no special expertise in this area!
DYOR DYOR DYOR good luck with it 👍
Everything is the same, until it changes, and then it's the same again. Everybody was surprised when interest rates went to near-zero and expected them to rise, but they stayed low for a decade. Similarly now.
I wouldn't be expecting them to go back to near zero. That was a total historical anomaly and the Bank of England is mandated to increase prices by 2% a year.
The gas pipe/data cable incident in the Gulf of Finland will be the subject of a news briefing in Helsinki at 3pm UK time Looks like Russia (my opinion)
This looks ominous for Israel. Attacks from all sides, all at once
#BREAKING Hebrew Channel 13: Reports of armed men infiltrating the Eshkol Settlement Council. Settlers were asked to lock themselves in their homes. Clashes are also taking place in Zikim in the Ashkelon Beach Council.
The gas pipe/data cable incident in the Gulf of Finland will be the subject of a news briefing in Helsinki at 3pm UK time Looks like Russia (my opinion)
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
I have posted in here previously that I don't expect interest rates to fall significantly or even at all over the next 2 to 3 years. Inflation remains a problem and will remain intransigent than some expect. It MAY even be necessary for Bank of England to raise rates further early 2024 if CPI Dec 2023 is not what is hoped for.
I have no special expertise in this area!
DYOR DYOR DYOR good luck with it 👍
Everything is the same, until it changes, and then it's the same again. Everybody was surprised when interest rates went to near-zero and expected them to rise, but they stayed low for a decade. Similarly now.
I wouldn't be expecting them to go back to near zero. That was a total historical anomaly and the Bank of England is mandated to increase prices by 2% a year.
Yes we are a long way from getting CPI to 2%, this may be 3 or 4 years away. I don't expect LAB to change this mandate.
Base rate likely to be around 3% to 4% in the longer term and that's only when CPI is reasonably close to 2%.
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
I don't believe Saudi sees the west as an enemy the way Iran does, not at all. Saudi sees its future as neutral but engaged - eg the vast investment in football, that can only work if it has a decent relationship with the EU, UK, USA etc. There are many other examples
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
Yes but not much sign of that happening so no need for panic just yet.
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
Yes but not much sign of that happening so no need for panic just yet.
Well, it is being attacked from Gaza (big time), and from the Lebanon (albeit small scale) and it now looks like there's trouble in the West Bank. So that's 3 out of 4
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
I have posted in here previously that I don't expect interest rates to fall significantly or even at all over the next 2 to 3 years. Inflation remains a problem and will remain intransigent than some expect. It MAY even be necessary for Bank of England to raise rates further early 2024 if CPI Dec 2023 is not what is hoped for.
I have no special expertise in this area!
DYOR DYOR DYOR good luck with it 👍
IMO rates will stay high - meaning 5% ish or higher - for many years. And the 30 year gilt is yielding about 5%. So I'd say the cheap money era is totally over and these 'high' rates will soon be viewed as normal.
This is me crystal balling on PB rather than offering mortgage advice to Rochdale Pioneers.
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
Yes but not much sign of that happening so no need for panic just yet.
Well, it is being attacked from Gaza (big time), and from the Lebanon (albeit small scale) and it now looks like there's trouble in the West Bank. So that's 3 out of 4
They couldn't be trying to drive them into the sea, could they?
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
It is not. Netanyahu advised Biden that he will use nukes, Biden sends in Gerald Ford. Ultimately the only way we get into deep trouble is if this ends up as US vs Russia using Israeli and Iranian proxies.
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
I have posted in here previously that I don't expect interest rates to fall significantly or even at all over the next 2 to 3 years. Inflation remains a problem and will remain intransigent than some expect. It MAY even be necessary for Bank of England to raise rates further early 2024 if CPI Dec 2023 is not what is hoped for.
I have no special expertise in this area!
DYOR DYOR DYOR good luck with it 👍
IMO rates will stay high - meaning 5% ish or higher - for many years. And the 30 year gilt is yielding about 5%. So I'd say the cheap money era is totally over and these 'high' rates will soon be viewed as normal.
This is me crystal balling on PB rather than offering mortgage advice to Rochdale Pioneers.
That fits with my own thinking anyway. Thanks everyone!
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
Yes but not much sign of that happening so no need for panic just yet.
Well, it is being attacked from Gaza (big time), and from the Lebanon (albeit small scale) and it now looks like there's trouble in the West Bank. So that's 3 out of 4
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
It is not. Netanyahu advised Biden that he will use nukes, Biden sends in Gerald Ford. Ultimately the only way we get into deep trouble is if this ends up as US vs Russia using Israeli and Iranian proxies.
How is Israel going to use nukes against somewhere separated from Israel by a wire fence that was knocked down a few days back?
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
It is not. Netanyahu advised Biden that he will use nukes, Biden sends in Gerald Ford. Ultimately the only way we get into deep trouble is if this ends up as US vs Russia using Israeli and Iranian proxies.
How is Israel going to use nukes against somewhere separated from Israel by a wire fence that was knocked down a few days back?
Hamas = Iran. Hezbollah = Iran. Threaten to nuke Iran to cut off support for the terrorists at source. That would get America's intention. Especially as Trump would probably back it.
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
I don't believe Saudi sees the west as an enemy the way Iran does, not at all. Saudi sees its future as neutral but engaged - eg the vast investment in football, that can only work if it has a decent relationship with the EU, UK, USA etc. There are many other examples
Iran is entirely estranged and allied to Russia
They may be non-aligned but I think they are very worried about seeing Russia/Putin humiliated by the west. He's more their friend than we are. Notice though that they went against OPEC by doing a unilateral oil production cut.
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
It is not. Netanyahu advised Biden that he will use nukes, Biden sends in Gerald Ford. Ultimately the only way we get into deep trouble is if this ends up as US vs Russia using Israeli and Iranian proxies.
How is Israel going to use nukes against somewhere separated from Israel by a wire fence that was knocked down a few days back?
It'd certainly be a " " solution. Siri, tell me a synonym of an ultimate, last, end
If Israel is simultaneously attacked from Gaza, the Lebanon and the West Bank (and perhaps from within its own Arab population) then it is in deep trouble
It is not. Netanyahu advised Biden that he will use nukes, Biden sends in Gerald Ford. Ultimately the only way we get into deep trouble is if this ends up as US vs Russia using Israeli and Iranian proxies.
How is Israel going to use nukes against somewhere separated from Israel by a wire fence that was knocked down a few days back?
Hamas = Iran. Hezbollah = Iran. Threaten to nuke Iran to cut off support for the terrorists at source. That would get America's intention. Especially as Trump would probably back it.
Sounds unlikely, especially given Israel's studied ambiguity about its possession of nuclear weapons. In addition, I'm sceptical Iran is controlling this Hamas offensive, even though they do fund and support them.
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
I don't believe Saudi sees the west as an enemy the way Iran does, not at all. Saudi sees its future as neutral but engaged - eg the vast investment in football, that can only work if it has a decent relationship with the EU, UK, USA etc. There are many other examples
Iran is entirely estranged and allied to Russia
They may be non-aligned but I think they are very worried about seeing Russia/Putin humiliated by the west. He's more their friend than we are. Notice though that they went against OPEC by doing a unilateral oil production cut.
I'm sure OPEC were horrified at the implied price rise a Russian oil cut gives them.
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
I have posted in here previously that I don't expect interest rates to fall significantly or even at all over the next 2 to 3 years. Inflation remains a problem and will remain intransigent than some expect. It MAY even be necessary for Bank of England to raise rates further early 2024 if CPI Dec 2023 is not what is hoped for.
I have no special expertise in this area!
DYOR DYOR DYOR good luck with it 👍
IMO rates will stay high - meaning 5% ish or higher - for many years. And the 30 year gilt is yielding about 5%. So I'd say the cheap money era is totally over and these 'high' rates will soon be viewed as normal.
This is me crystal balling on PB rather than offering mortgage advice to Rochdale Pioneers.
That fits with my own thinking anyway. Thanks everyone!
Agreed. Interest rates have returned to normal. That means in turn, that house prices are likely to go nowhere.
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
The obvious response is that they peak over the winter and start slowly sliding after that, but there’s one hell of a margin in there.
It’s not difficult to either imagine a couple of years of major war and conflict in oil-producing regions causing huge inflation again, but also not difficult to imagine a state of peace
I’d say most of the risk is on the upside for rates. If they’re 5% now they’re almost certainly going to be in a 4%-6% range in two years’ time, but with perhaps a 10% chance of them being 8%
(All numbers are made-up total bollocks, and from the top of my head right now, I am not a financial advisor etc).
In general a fixed rate will give you something like the average of the probability distribution for future rates, plus a risk premium. So, if the forecasts for future interest rates are reasonably good (ooops!) then on average there's not much difference between the two. In that case, if you could afford to see rates rise to the top of the probability distribution then, on average, you'd be better off with a variable rate, as you wouldn't be paying the risk premium.
I think that, given the difficulty in predicting forward interest rates, my choice would always be for a long fix to reduce the exposure to worst-case scenario risk.
But, who knows, if interest rates go really high the government might feel forced to introduce mortgage interest [rate increase] tax relief (as they have in Ireland) and so then it becomes a one-way bet. Gamble on lower future interest rates with a variable deal, and the government will subsidise your mortgage if rates go up.
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
I don't believe Saudi sees the west as an enemy the way Iran does, not at all. Saudi sees its future as neutral but engaged - eg the vast investment in football, that can only work if it has a decent relationship with the EU, UK, USA etc. There are many other examples
Iran is entirely estranged and allied to Russia
They may be non-aligned but I think they are very worried about seeing Russia/Putin humiliated by the west. He's more their friend than we are. Notice though that they went against OPEC by doing a unilateral oil production cut.
The other way around. OPEC+ agreed to production cuts, but Russia didn’t cut their own supply.
Russian O&G output is currently selling at a substantial discount to market price, and being washed through China and India.
The West should be capitalising on Saudi disquiet with Russia, and encouraging OPEC to drive prices down and lock Putin out of the market.
Coincidentally (or maybe not), I just watched it a couple of hours ago after it popped up on YouTube. I'm not sure how accurate it is - it seems highly simplified and has some rather idiosyncratic spelling/pronunciation - but it appears to me to be reasonably even-handed.
Interesting poll from Scotland on the Rosebank Oilfield
Is the SNP and Labour out of step with Scottish public opinion ?
Do Scottish voters support or oppose North Sea Transition Authority's recent approval for drilling in the Rosebank Oil Field, located 80 miles west of Shetland?
Coincidentally (or maybe not), I just watched it a couple of hours ago after it popped up on YouTube. I'm not sure how accurate it is - it seems highly simplified and has some rather idiosyncratic spelling/pronunciation - but it appears to me to be reasonably even-handed.
Right then, time to start thinking about the mortgage (as the current deal expires at the end of January).
What's everyone's best guess with regards to interest rates over the next 2 to 3 years...?
I have posted in here previously that I don't expect interest rates to fall significantly or even at all over the next 2 to 3 years. Inflation remains a problem and will remain intransigent than some expect. It MAY even be necessary for Bank of England to raise rates further early 2024 if CPI Dec 2023 is not what is hoped for.
I have no special expertise in this area!
DYOR DYOR DYOR good luck with it 👍
IMO rates will stay high - meaning 5% ish or higher - for many years. And the 30 year gilt is yielding about 5%. So I'd say the cheap money era is totally over and these 'high' rates will soon be viewed as normal.
This is me crystal balling on PB rather than offering mortgage advice to Rochdale Pioneers.
That fits with my own thinking anyway. Thanks everyone!
Agreed. Interest rates have returned to normal. That means in turn, that house prices are likely to go nowhere.
I expect circa 5% interest rates to become the norm and the time of low interest rates is over
Coincidentally (or maybe not), I just watched it a couple of hours ago after it popped up on YouTube. I'm not sure how accurate it is - it seems highly simplified and has some rather idiosyncratic spelling/pronunciation - but it appears to me to be reasonably even-handed.
TL;DR version? Or is that impossible.
I think "History of Israel-Palestine Conflict" in 11 minutes is already TL;DRed to the limit!
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
I don't believe Saudi sees the west as an enemy the way Iran does, not at all. Saudi sees its future as neutral but engaged - eg the vast investment in football, that can only work if it has a decent relationship with the EU, UK, USA etc. There are many other examples
Iran is entirely estranged and allied to Russia
They may be non-aligned but I think they are very worried about seeing Russia/Putin humiliated by the west. He's more their friend than we are. Notice though that they went against OPEC by doing a unilateral oil production cut.
The other way around. OPEC+ agreed to production cuts, but Russia didn’t cut their own supply.
Russian O&G output is currently selling at a substantial discount to market price, and being washed through China and India.
The West should be capitalising on Saudi disquiet with Russia, and encouraging OPEC to drive prices down and lock Putin out of the market.
You won't drive Putin / Russia out of the market, as the marginal cost of Russian oil production is going to be sub $15.
The best part is if it does indeed come to pass that they didn't remove the directive, the ONLY people to blame are the Brexiteers and associated loons who were sitting on the Government benches not getting it done...
They could just change the law but I’m sure will just find someone else to blame if they lose the appeal.
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
I don't believe Saudi sees the west as an enemy the way Iran does, not at all. Saudi sees its future as neutral but engaged - eg the vast investment in football, that can only work if it has a decent relationship with the EU, UK, USA etc. There are many other examples
Iran is entirely estranged and allied to Russia
They may be non-aligned but I think they are very worried about seeing Russia/Putin humiliated by the west. He's more their friend than we are. Notice though that they went against OPEC by doing a unilateral oil production cut.
The other way around. OPEC+ agreed to production cuts, but Russia didn’t cut their own supply.
Russian O&G output is currently selling at a substantial discount to market price, and being washed through China and India.
The West should be capitalising on Saudi disquiet with Russia, and encouraging OPEC to drive prices down and lock Putin out of the market.
You won't drive Putin / Russia out of the market, as the marginal cost of Russian oil production is going to be sub $15.
But you will cause enormous pain in Russia.
Which the Saudis clearly don't want to do. Even after Russia ignored the production cuts, the Saudis have tried to help them.
It may also be that the Saudis can't accept that their current spending is unaffordable. Apparently they need $100 oil to balance the books. Maybe it's time they gave up on this sporting nonsense.
Coincidentally (or maybe not), I just watched it a couple of hours ago after it popped up on YouTube. I'm not sure how accurate it is - it seems highly simplified and has some rather idiosyncratic spelling/pronunciation - but it appears to me to be reasonably even-handed.
TL;DR version? Or is that impossible.
I think "History of Israel-Palestine Conflict" in 11 minutes is already TL;DRed to the limit!
I agree with the general idea that 5% is the new norm.
However there is risk on both sides. There’s a small but significant (~20%?) probability that they need to climb from here, but there’s also a decent chance that they come down in response to recessionary or deflationary data (also ~20%?).
I am renewing at present. I am gambling on variable as the value of hedging doesn’t look so fantastic, and I can always switch back.
As things stand, I’ll likely dispose of some property but don’t want to do so in a depressed market so am resigned to grinning and bearing it for a few more years.
I agree with the general idea that 5% is the new norm.
However there is risk on both sides. There’s a small but significant (~20%?) probability that they need to climb from here, but there’s also a decent chance that they come down in response to recessionary or deflationary data (also ~20%?).
I am renewing at present. I am gambling on variable as the value of hedging doesn’t look so fantastic, and I can always switch back.
As things stand, I’ll likely dispose of some property but don’t want to do so in a depressed market so am resigned to grinning and bearing it for a few more years.
Absolutely zero chance Israel nukes Iran. Biden will veto it. If Israel were to let the nuclear genie out of the bottle then you can be damn sure Putin will be nuking Ukraine. And then we are in all likelihood in WWIII.
The other point I’d add is that I’m a moderate optimist on the British economy.
I genuinely believe that a Labour victory next year will change the narrative, in part because it will look like a very obvious closing of the chapter on disastrous government since 2016, and in part because of some of the commitments Labour are making in terms of infrastructure and housing investment.
It’s widely understood that investor sentiment has become absurdly pessimistic on British stocks etc but it needs an “event” to shift it.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
It shows how just monitoring electronic communications isn't enough.
I agree with the general idea that 5% is the new norm.
However there is risk on both sides. There’s a small but significant (~20%?) probability that they need to climb from here, but there’s also a decent chance that they come down in response to recessionary or deflationary data (also ~20%?).
I am renewing at present. I am gambling on variable as the value of hedging doesn’t look so fantastic, and I can always switch back.
As things stand, I’ll likely dispose of some property but don’t want to do so in a depressed market so am resigned to grinning and bearing it for a few more years.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we get rates closer to 3% in a couple of years time if the immediate danger passes and we have no further shocks to the system (a VERY big ‘if’). But really it’s impossible to say - the world could be very different place then. Look what the last decade has vended us.
I do think word clouds are more interesting when you look at the smaller ones. More people think of Keir as a 'Tory' than as a 'Lawyer'. We also have tw*t, kn*b and pr*t. I understand why the first two are asterisked but is the third one really necessary? Unless it's a word I don't know.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
I don't believe Saudi sees the west as an enemy the way Iran does, not at all. Saudi sees its future as neutral but engaged - eg the vast investment in football, that can only work if it has a decent relationship with the EU, UK, USA etc. There are many other examples
Iran is entirely estranged and allied to Russia
Yes, Saudi are trying to establish themselves as a middle ground nation as seen by their approach to Ukraine. Certainly I don't think MBS sees the West as an enemy.
The other point I’d add is that I’m a moderate optimist on the British economy.
I genuinely believe that a Labour victory next year will change the narrative, in part because it will look like a very obvious closing of the chapter on disastrous government since 2016, and in part because of some of the commitments Labour are making in terms of infrastructure and housing investment.
It’s widely understood that investor sentiment has become absurdly pessimistic on British stocks etc but it needs an “event” to shift it.
Why 2016? Did you miss the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent bungled approach to dealing with it of Cameron, Osborne and Clegg?
Absolutely zero chance Israel nukes Iran. Biden will veto it. If Israel were to let the nuclear genie out of the bottle then you can be damn sure Putin will be nuking Ukraine. And then we are in all likelihood in WWIII.
There are some quite disturbing world war-ish vibes about things at the moment. For a start I can see "Global South" opinion already ignoring the horrors of the Hamas attacks and moving on to condemnation of the Israeli response. That will only get worse as time goes on. And there are a lot of powers in the world who see it in their interests to do anything to help undermine the USA as hegemon. Starting with China but including Saudi and Iran, Russia of course (which is now sitting pretty and licking its lips), and most of sub-Saharan Africa.
The one big outlier is India. Notable how the online Hindu nationalists who have been lining up to praise Putin since the Ukraine invasion are now fully on side with Israel, united by their hatred of Islam. Nationalist India now finds itself on opposite sides of the two big world conflicts.
I don't know how Israel wins here, certainly not in terms of friendly neighbourly relations. It really needs to find some sort of common cause with other groups in the Middle East. The only options really are the Syrian rebels - an incursion into Syria could alter the course of the civil war but also bring them into contact with Russia - and the Iranian resistance, who seem to be turning in to a full-on secular pro-Western 5th column.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
The other point I’d add is that I’m a moderate optimist on the British economy.
I genuinely believe that a Labour victory next year will change the narrative, in part because it will look like a very obvious closing of the chapter on disastrous government since 2016, and in part because of some of the commitments Labour are making in terms of infrastructure and housing investment.
It’s widely understood that investor sentiment has become absurdly pessimistic on British stocks etc but it needs an “event” to shift it.
Why 2016? Did you miss the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent bungled approach to dealing with it of Cameron, Osborne and Clegg?
One thing the financial crisis didn't do was have a disproportionate impact on the UK's global brand. For several years the countries feeling the full brunt of investor flight were Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal (and the likes of Cyprus and Iceland). The UK was seen, rightly or wrongly, as having been successful in stabilising its financial own system. The British valuation discount is a much more recent thing.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
Well, for a start, I don't think Mexicanpete is of the left.
How you infer his post "implicitly but clearly" champions the Hamas terrorists is a bit of a puzzle to me; please explain.
I posted a link to a Haaretz editorial piece this morning, which makes some very similar points. Sure, Haaretz is "of the left", but I think they'd be rather more than a little bit offended by the suggestion that they're 'on the side of' Hamas.
The piece makes the point that the one with that in his history is Netanyahu himself: https://www.haaretz.com/ty-WRITER/0000017f-da25-d42c-afff-dff7a1c10000 ...His life’s work was to turn the ship of state from the course steered by his predecessors, from Yitzhak Rabin to Ehud Olmert, and make the two-state solution impossible. En route to this goal, he found a partner in Hamas.
“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” he told a meeting of his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”..
While he's correct about the general editorial policy, I hardly think it applies to an organisation legally defined in the UK as terrorist, which has just perpetrated acts of pure terror.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I wasn't suggesting that. I don't see that my question is a defence of Hamas at all, it wasn't meant to be. Quite the reverse. With Mossad's extensive covert intelligence operations within Hamas circles I find it hard to believe (metaphorically speaking) they were taken by surprise.
I was a bit miffed this morning when R4 news bulletins were announcing the number of Israeli dead from “the Hamas assault” as if it was the same as Russia/Ukraine rather than a terrorist outfit making a terrorist attack.
If they don’t want to be considered “terrorists” then don’t commit terrorism until the BBC should call it what it is, terrorism by terrorists.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
Not really. I mean there is that as well. Netanyahu seems to be very criticisable.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Absolutely zero chance Israel nukes Iran. Biden will veto it. If Israel were to let the nuclear genie out of the bottle then you can be damn sure Putin will be nuking Ukraine. And then we are in all likelihood in WWIII.
We're back to the ominous music and blue tickertape headlines from Threads, aren't we?
The other point I’d add is that I’m a moderate optimist on the British economy.
I genuinely believe that a Labour victory next year will change the narrative, in part because it will look like a very obvious closing of the chapter on disastrous government since 2016, and in part because of some of the commitments Labour are making in terms of infrastructure and housing investment.
It’s widely understood that investor sentiment has become absurdly pessimistic on British stocks etc but it needs an “event” to shift it.
Why 2016? Did you miss the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent bungled approach to dealing with it of Cameron, Osborne and Clegg?
One thing the financial crisis didn't do was have a disproportionate impact on the UK's global brand. For several years the countries feeling the full brunt of investor flight were Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal (and the likes of Cyprus and Iceland). The UK was seen, rightly or wrongly, as having been successful in stabilising its financial own system. The British valuation discount is a much more recent thing.
Countries that don't have their own currencies. Iceland being the exception having an enormous (for them) banking system. The decline in trend per capita GDP and productivity growth started in 2008. 2016 was merely a blip.
If they don’t have the guts to call the Hamas terrorists, “terrorists” themselves, then they could at least make the point that they are a “terrorist organisation” proscribed by the UK government.
Simpson has already received “community notes” on Twitter, making the same point.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
Not really. I mean there is that as well. Netanyahu seems to be very criticisable.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Retract that.
You have made a completely false assertion.
There is no fecking suggestion of support for Hamas or their communication techniques. Neither am I denying that Hamas are irredeemably evil b@st@rds who need to be removed from the face of the earth. I am critical of not only Netanyahu 's intelligence failure but questioning how he was unaware something evil was coming down the line
Off topic, but about an election: 'After a week of enormous upsets and shocking twists, online voters have crowned 128 “Grazer” as the Fat Bear Week champion. It’s the first title for the fierce mother and expert angler, who defeated 32 “Chunk” in the Fat Bear Tuesday final by more than 85,000 votes.
Grazer is the third sow, or female bear, to win the tournament. She joins Holly, who won in 2019, and 2018 winner 409 “Beadnose,” who is believed to have died.
The Post says that "Grazer could not be reached for comment", and notes that this year, security measures appear to have blocked the fraud that occurred last year.
(This seems like an excellent contest for PB to cover, especially if you folks can persuade the bookies to do their part.)
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
Not really. I mean there is that as well. Netanyahu seems to be very criticisable.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Retract that.
You have made a completely false assertion.
There is no fecking suggestion of support for Hamas or their communication techniques. Neither am I denying that Hamas are irredeemably evil b@st@rds who need to be removed from the face of the earth. I am critical of not only Netanyahu 's intelligence failure but questioning how he was unaware something evil was coming down the line
I didn't read your somewhat endearing "ragged-arsed peasants" description as actually meaning "irredeemably evil b@st@rds".
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
Not really. I mean there is that as well. Netanyahu seems to be very criticisable.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Retract that.
You have made a completely false assertion.
There is no fecking suggestion of support for Hamas or their communication techniques. Neither am I denying that Hamas are irredeemably evil b@st@rds who need to be removed from the face of the earth. I am critical of not only Netanyahu 's intelligence failure but questioning how he was unaware something evil was coming down the line
I didn't read your somewhat endearing "ragged-arsed peasants" description as actually meaning "irredeemably evil b@st@rds".
You weren't meant to, as the point was about a failure of intelligence. "Endearing" is again solely your inference.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
Not really. I mean there is that as well. Netanyahu seems to be very criticisable.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Retract that.
You have made a completely false assertion.
There is no fecking suggestion of support for Hamas or their communication techniques. Neither am I denying that Hamas are irredeemably evil b@st@rds who need to be removed from the face of the earth. I am critical of not only Netanyahu 's intelligence failure but questioning how he was unaware something evil was coming down the line
I didn't read your somewhat endearing "ragged-arsed peasants" description as actually meaning "irredeemably evil b@st@rds".
You weren't meant to, as the point was about a failure of intelligence. "Endearing" is again solely your inference.
And failure of intelligence.
Ragged-arsed peasants lead by Dick van Dyke into battle against the megalith evil empire.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
Not really. I mean there is that as well. Netanyahu seems to be very criticisable.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Retract that.
You have made a completely false assertion.
There is no fecking suggestion of support for Hamas or their communication techniques. Neither am I denying that Hamas are irredeemably evil b@st@rds who need to be removed from the face of the earth. I am critical of not only Netanyahu 's intelligence failure but questioning how he was unaware something evil was coming down the line
I didn't read your somewhat endearing "ragged-arsed peasants" description as actually meaning "irredeemably evil b@st@rds".
It was not intended as "endearing" (you've made that correlation). I was contrasting the.most sophisticated, well funded, intelligence operation anywhere on the planet with uneducated terrorists, who on an individual basis haven't got a pot to piss in and questioning "how the feck could that happen?"
"Endearing" isn't really an appropriate descriptor for a pack of barbarian ****s.
Ultimately Saudi Arabia and Iran have a common enemy, the west. Those hoping for Saudi/Israel peace ought to consider that. The west should have pivoted to Egypt as soon as the Saudi/Iran 'understanding' occurred.
I don't believe Saudi sees the west as an enemy the way Iran does, not at all. Saudi sees its future as neutral but engaged - eg the vast investment in football, that can only work if it has a decent relationship with the EU, UK, USA etc. There are many other examples
Iran is entirely estranged and allied to Russia
They may be non-aligned but I think they are very worried about seeing Russia/Putin humiliated by the west. He's more their friend than we are. Notice though that they went against OPEC by doing a unilateral oil production cut.
The other way around. OPEC+ agreed to production cuts, but Russia didn’t cut their own supply.
Russian O&G output is currently selling at a substantial discount to market price, and being washed through China and India.
The West should be capitalising on Saudi disquiet with Russia, and encouraging OPEC to drive prices down and lock Putin out of the market.
You won't drive Putin / Russia out of the market, as the marginal cost of Russian oil production is going to be sub $15.
But you will cause enormous pain in Russia.
Which the Saudis clearly don't want to do. Even after Russia ignored the production cuts, the Saudis have tried to help them.
It may also be that the Saudis can't accept that their current spending is unaffordable. Apparently they need $100 oil to balance the books. Maybe it's time they gave up on this sporting nonsense.
The Saudi calculation is - I think - as follows:
The Ukraine conflict will be over at some point, and we need Russia to then be on the same side as us so they will be helpful at matching OPEC quota cuts. It is therefore not in our interests to screw them over.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
Not really. I mean there is that as well. Netanyahu seems to be very criticisable.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Retract that.
You have made a completely false assertion.
There is no fecking suggestion of support for Hamas or their communication techniques. Neither am I denying that Hamas are irredeemably evil b@st@rds who need to be removed from the face of the earth. I am critical of not only Netanyahu 's intelligence failure but questioning how he was unaware something evil was coming down the line
I didn't read your somewhat endearing "ragged-arsed peasants" description as actually meaning "irredeemably evil b@st@rds".
It was not intended as "endearing" (you've made that correlation). I was contrasting the.most sophisticated, well funded, intelligence operation anywhere on the planet with uneducated terrorists, who on an individual basis haven't got a pot to piss in and questioning "how the feck could that happen?"
"Endearing" isn't really an appropriate descriptor for a pack of barbarian ****s.
Please retract your erroneous accusation.
I'm not going to retract anything.
I said the tone of your comment was "typical of the left". I maintain that it is as a brief look at publications of "the left" will attest.
You say that "ragged-arsed peasants" was meant to be coruscatingly critical. I didn't read it like that which is my prerogative.
Netanyahu and opposition agree to form "War Government".
Bibi playing a blinder and keeping himself out of jail.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
I think this typifies the attitude of the left. 70 years ago you would have been championing the Israelis just as you now (implicitly but clearly) champion those plucky Hamas militants.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
I think you're conflating support for Israel with uncritical support for Netanyahu. There's a lot of anger about this bizarre intelligence failure among Israelis and the finger seems to be getting pointed squarely at him.
Not really. I mean there is that as well. Netanyahu seems to be very criticisable.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Retract that.
You have made a completely false assertion.
There is no fecking suggestion of support for Hamas or their communication techniques. Neither am I denying that Hamas are irredeemably evil b@st@rds who need to be removed from the face of the earth. I am critical of not only Netanyahu 's intelligence failure but questioning how he was unaware something evil was coming down the line
I didn't read your somewhat endearing "ragged-arsed peasants" description as actually meaning "irredeemably evil b@st@rds".
You weren't meant to, as the point was about a failure of intelligence. "Endearing" is again solely your inference.
And failure of intelligence.
Ragged-arsed peasants lead by Dick van Dyke into battle against the megalith evil empire.
Absolutely zero chance Israel nukes Iran. Biden will veto it. If Israel were to let the nuclear genie out of the bottle then you can be damn sure Putin will be nuking Ukraine. And then we are in all likelihood in WWIII.
Some people are drawing an analogy with July 1914, but if that's the case then it may already be inevitable.
Comments
I have no special expertise in this area!
DYOR DYOR DYOR good luck with it 👍
#BREAKING Hebrew Channel 13: Reports of armed men infiltrating the Eshkol Settlement Council. Settlers were asked to lock themselves in their homes. Clashes are also taking place in Zikim in the Ashkelon Beach Council.
https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1712098696085549452?s=20
Base rate likely to be around 3% to 4% in the longer term and that's only when CPI is reasonably close to 2%.
Iran is entirely estranged and allied to Russia
The artfully composed bit, at least.
This is me crystal balling on PB rather than offering mortgage advice to Rochdale Pioneers.
Siri, tell me a synonym of an ultimate, last, end
"History of Israel-Palestine Conflict", History On Maps, YouTube Jul 30, 2021. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m19F4IHTVGc , 11 mins
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12618817/Foreign-Secretary-James-Cleverly-arrives-Israel-unwavering-solidarity-following-brutal-Hamas-assault-17-Brits-dead-missing.html
I think that, given the difficulty in predicting forward interest rates, my choice would always be for a long fix to reduce the exposure to worst-case scenario risk.
But, who knows, if interest rates go really high the government might feel forced to introduce mortgage interest [rate increase] tax relief (as they have in Ireland) and so then it becomes a one-way bet. Gamble on lower future interest rates with a variable deal, and the government will subsidise your mortgage if rates go up.
(I am not a mortgage advisor, etc, etc)
Russian O&G output is currently selling at a substantial discount to market price, and being washed through China and India.
The West should be capitalising on Saudi disquiet with Russia, and encouraging OPEC to drive prices down and lock Putin out of the market.
Sharma is on 88*, after 14 overs played.
Is the SNP and Labour out of step with Scottish public opinion ?
Do Scottish voters support or oppose North Sea Transition Authority's recent approval for drilling in the Rosebank Oil Field, located 80 miles west of Shetland?
Support 40%
Oppose 16%
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1712060874087665765?s=20
But you will cause enormous pain in Russia.
It may also be that the Saudis can't accept that their current spending is unaffordable. Apparently they need $100 oil to balance the books. Maybe it's time they gave up on this sporting nonsense.
However there is risk on both sides. There’s a small but significant (~20%?) probability that they need to climb from here, but there’s also a decent chance that they come down in response to recessionary or deflationary data (also ~20%?).
I am renewing at present.
I am gambling on variable as the value of hedging doesn’t look so fantastic, and I can always switch back.
As things stand, I’ll likely dispose of some property but don’t want to do so in a depressed market so am resigned to grinning and bearing it for a few more years.
I genuinely believe that a Labour victory next year will change the narrative, in part because it will look like a very obvious closing of the chapter on disastrous government since 2016, and in part because of some of the commitments Labour are making in terms of infrastructure and housing investment.
It’s widely understood that investor sentiment has become absurdly pessimistic on British stocks etc but it needs an “event” to shift it.
How did Mossad miss the impending invasion last week? The most sophisticated intelligence gathering machine in history bamboozled by "Victorian" communication techniques used by ragged-arsed peasants.
Could be a good rehearsal for a later match in the tournament, not to mention the net run rate for this game.
Because the left loves an underdog.
Right up until the moment when that underdog does as presumably the left wants it to do and becomes powerful itself. Then it becomes the enemy.
See also: poor => rich people in the UK.
Iran is a different kettle of fish altogether.
Veteran correspondent says using term would mean not reporting Israel-Hamas conflict with 'due impartiality'" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/11/john-simpson-defends-bbc-not-calling-hamas-terrorists/
The one big outlier is India. Notable how the online Hindu nationalists who have been lining up to praise Putin since the Ukraine invasion are now fully on side with Israel, united by their hatred of Islam. Nationalist India now finds itself on opposite sides of the two big world conflicts.
I don't know how Israel wins here, certainly not in terms of friendly neighbourly relations. It really needs to find some sort of common cause with other groups in the Middle East. The only options really are the Syrian rebels - an incursion into Syria could alter the course of the civil war but also bring them into contact with Russia - and the Iranian resistance, who seem to be turning in to a full-on secular pro-Western 5th column.
...integrity & honesty are intrinsic to being a lawyer...
Brilliant!
How you infer his post "implicitly but clearly" champions the Hamas terrorists is a bit of a puzzle to me; please explain.
I posted a link to a Haaretz editorial piece this morning, which makes some very similar points. Sure, Haaretz is "of the left", but I think they'd be rather more than a little bit offended by the suggestion that they're 'on the side of' Hamas.
The piece makes the point that the one with that in his history is Netanyahu himself:
https://www.haaretz.com/ty-WRITER/0000017f-da25-d42c-afff-dff7a1c10000
...His life’s work was to turn the ship of state from the course steered by his predecessors, from Yitzhak Rabin to Ehud Olmert, and make the two-state solution impossible. En route to this goal, he found a partner in Hamas.
“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” he told a meeting of his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”..
If they don’t want to be considered “terrorists” then don’t commit terrorism until the BBC should call it what it is, terrorism by terrorists.
But the tone of Mexicanpete's mail is typical of the left. Championing the underdog on principle. It is the classic "punching up" that the left indulges in whether the people they are punching are the US, Israel, the UK, the rich, "big business", you name it.
They are all seen as traitors to the cause and the Jews are a great example. Kibbutzes - ie subsistence farming - were seen as the very epitome of socialist paradise. And then the buggers only went on and developed into a military-industrial complex and hence became the enemy.
Simpson has already received “community notes” on Twitter, making the same point.
You have made a completely false assertion.
There is no fecking suggestion of support for Hamas or their communication techniques. Neither am I denying that Hamas are irredeemably evil b@st@rds who need to be removed from the face of the earth. I am critical of not only Netanyahu 's intelligence failure but questioning how he was unaware something evil was coming down the line
Grazer is the third sow, or female bear, to win the tournament. She joins Holly, who won in 2019, and 2018 winner 409 “Beadnose,” who is believed to have died.
“The girls did really well this year,” said Naomi Boak, a media ranger at Katmai National Park and Preserve. “It was the year of the sow.”'
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2023/10/10/2023-fat-bear-week-winner/
The Post says that "Grazer could not be reached for comment", and notes that this year, security measures appear to have blocked the fraud that occurred last year.
(This seems like an excellent contest for PB to cover, especially if you folks can persuade the bookies to do their part.)
"Endearing" is again solely your inference.
And failure of intelligence.
"Endearing" isn't really an appropriate descriptor for a pack of barbarian ****s.
Please retract your erroneous accusation.
The Ukraine conflict will be over at some point, and we need Russia to then be on the same side as us so they will be helpful at matching OPEC quota cuts. It is therefore not in our interests to screw them over.
I said the tone of your comment was "typical of the left". I maintain that it is as a brief look at publications of "the left" will attest.
You say that "ragged-arsed peasants" was meant to be coruscatingly critical. I didn't read it like that which is my prerogative.
Here are some more ragged-arsed peasants.
"A BBC spokesperson noted it was a long-standing position for its reporters not to use the term themselves unless attributing it to someone else."
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/sympathies-for-the-israelis-palestinian-conflict