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Can Starmer’s speech turn these figures around? – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Just like the eco-fascist stunts, the media should totally ignore this.

    Of course

    And of course we will shortly be getting the Mail articles about how Tarquin went to some posh private school and how much his parents house (that he still lives in) is worth....
    Oh of course.

    I don’t personally have a problem with such political protest, it’s part of long and noble tradition. No-one was hurt or inconvenienced, with no damage done except to the reputation of the SKS security team, who should have bundled him off the stage well before he got close to their VIP.

    Very different to blocking a public road, causing damage to property, or forcing the cancellation of a sporting event.
    Anyone know what glitterman was protesting against (or for)?
    The latest suggestion is that they’re a group affiliated to the JSO mob, in favour of more imports of oil from Saudi, Russia, and Qatar, rather than domestic production (although they might not have phrased it like that)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Rishi top story on LBC news.

    All that glitters is not gold.

    Think you mean Starmer, not Rishi.

    And yes, he comes well out of the story doesn't he? Great line: "Power not Protest. That's why we changed the party."

    Assume you will be sending credit where credit is due?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited October 2023
    "NATO member Finland says its gas pipeline has been 'deliberately damaged

    Finland, now a member of NATO, is due to hold a news conference amid reports its gas pipeline from Estonia has been damaged in a suspected attack by Russia - sending UK gas prices soaring."

    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-moscow-to-discuss-lifting-ban-on-nuclear-tests-after-putin-threat-12541713
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    nico679 said:

    Very impressed with Starmer so far and I’m not his biggest fan .

    Yebbut you're hardly a floating voter - you are so staunchly Labour you are desperate for him to be impressive.
  • OT Eden Hazard has retired.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,707
    Wow.


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Thin on detail. But it’s not meant to be a policy seminar. Starmer’s critique of the Tories was devastating. And his argument for change compelling. Suspect we will come to see this as the moment he sealed the deal.
  • AlistairM said:

    WTAF. Absolutely barbaric.

    “The Israeli soldiers discovered babies with heads cut off”

    Hamas beheaded babies.

    https://x.com/HenMazzig/status/1711732906412884432?s=20

    If this stuff is confirmed, then Hamas has gone full on death cult.
    1,500 lads on a one-way trip across the border. Kill as many as they can before their fast-track to paradise.

    Fecking evil nutters.
    That is part of the problem: they really do believe God is on their side, and literally will take them to paradise.
    Oh my name it ain't nothin'
    My age it means less
    The country I come from
    Is called the Midwest
    I was taught and brought up there
    The laws to abide
    And that land that I live in
    Has God on its side
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    AlistairM said:

    WTAF. Absolutely barbaric.

    “The Israeli soldiers discovered babies with heads cut off”

    Hamas beheaded babies.

    https://x.com/HenMazzig/status/1711732906412884432?s=20

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atrocity_propaganda

    They'll have bite marks next.
    We have proof they have mutilated women and spat on their corpses - it's on video. We've seen them beheading a Thai worker captured in Israel - with a spade. It's on video. We have a woman clearly saying "they shot my baby in the head" - it's on video

    Yet cutting off a baby's head is impossible for these monsters?

    Why?

    It is clear they went into Israel armed with a pure bloodlust: telling them to hurt and kill as many Jews as badly as possible, in as many cruel ways as possible. My guess is virtually all these stories are true
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    Very impressed with Starmer so far and I’m not his biggest fan .

    Yebbut you're hardly a floating voter - you are so staunchly Labour you are desperate for him to be impressive.
    I’m staunchly Labour but have said before I’d have preferred Angela Rayner as leader.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,152

    AlistairM said:

    WTAF. Absolutely barbaric.

    “The Israeli soldiers discovered babies with heads cut off”

    Hamas beheaded babies.

    https://x.com/HenMazzig/status/1711732906412884432?s=20

    If this stuff is confirmed, then Hamas has gone full on death cult.
    1,500 lads on a one-way trip across the border. Kill as many as they can before their fast-track to paradise.

    Fecking evil nutters.
    That is part of the problem: they really do believe God is on their side, and literally will take them to paradise.
    I'm reminded on this Onion headline from after 9/11


  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    edited October 2023

    Rishi top story on LBC news.

    All that glitters is not gold.

    Think you mean Starmer, not Rishi.

    And yes, he comes well out of the story doesn't he? Great line: "Power not Protest. That's why we changed the party."

    Assume you will be sending credit where credit is due?
    Or "All that is gold does not glitter".

    (The Baggins / Starmer version.)

    Does Mr Starmer seem like the pre-adventure Bilbo Baggins?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Red Rayner on the Beeb.

    That is an Ange Klaxon for her fan club on here.
  • Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Rishi top story on LBC news.

    All that glitters is not gold.

    Think you mean Starmer, not Rishi.

    And yes, he comes well out of the story doesn't he? Great line: "Power not Protest. That's why we changed the party."

    Assume you will be sending credit where credit is due?
    No. Rishi's response to Hamas was the first story.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677


    Did you fact check before posting?

    LOL. Look at what site you're on.

    So far, the pb.com coverage has been...

    Day 1: OMG! Look at this I found on Twitter.
    Day 2: Why choose between genocide and ethinic cleansing when Israel should do both?
    Day 3: Maybe a war with Iran would calm things down.

    Now, we seem to have looped back to Day 1 and everything on Twitter is true.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    I'm remarkably content for Starmer to become PM, despite being a rightwinger. The Tories are obviously done, Labour need a go, I like the idea of Georgian new towns

    I have just one request of the incoming Labour government. That I never ever ever have to listen to Keir Starmer speak, ever again. Thanks
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    Andy_JS said:

    "NATO member Finland says its gas pipeline has been 'deliberately damaged

    Finland, now a member of NATO, is due to hold a news conference amid reports its gas pipeline from Estonia has been damaged in a suspected attack by Russia - sending UK gas prices soaring."

    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-moscow-to-discuss-lifting-ban-on-nuclear-tests-after-putin-threat-12541713

    How's Rishi's Long Term Decision to not renovate any further gas storage doing at protecting gas prices?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Dura_Ace said:


    Did you fact check before posting?

    LOL. Look at what site you're on.

    So far, the pb.com coverage has been...

    Day 1: OMG! Look at this I found on Twitter.
    Day 2: Why choose between genocide and ethinic cleansing when Israel should do both?
    Day 3: Maybe a war with Iran would calm things down.

    Now, we seem to have looped back to Day 1 and everything on Twitter is true.
    Well, you believe ANYTHING on Twitter when it tells you Putin is winning
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023
    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1711749030697394284


    As the Labour leadership rolls out the red carpet for climate vandals, arms firms and private healthcare, thousands of us are organising for the bold change this country needs.

    We will keep campaigning for social justice and peace.

    We are the movement for the many, not the few.


    Safe to say Jezza aint a fan of the speech
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Is that tory scum Gary Streeter going to have to resign triggering yet another by-election?

    He strikes me as the brazen-it-out type.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?

    Surrey...of course he's from Surrey...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited October 2023
    New Towns:

    Jo Coburn: Where will they be? How many will there be?

    Angela Rayner: No attempt at an answer. General waffle re planning system. Talking about plots, landbanking, grey belt etc etc.

    To be fair, it's the same as Rishi's transport plans.

    None of it is going to happen.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    WTAF. Absolutely barbaric.

    “The Israeli soldiers discovered babies with heads cut off”

    Hamas beheaded babies.

    https://x.com/HenMazzig/status/1711732906412884432?s=20

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atrocity_propaganda

    They'll have bite marks next.
    We have proof they have mutilated women and spat on their corpses - it's on video. We've seen them beheading a Thai worker captured in Israel - with a spade. It's on video. We have a woman clearly saying "they shot my baby in the head" - it's on video

    Yet cutting off a baby's head is impossible for these monsters?

    Why?

    It is clear they went into Israel armed with a pure bloodlust: telling them to hurt and kill as many Jews as badly as possible, in as many cruel ways as possible. My guess is virtually all these stories are true
    I don't doubt that they could've done it. Just certain accusations require proof and I think this is one.

    Its also true that disinformation is being smeared around the internet and very emotive stories are perfect for further justifying what the IDF are about to do.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023

    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?

    Surrey...of course he's from Surrey...
    Apparently it was a stunt by a "political splinter group" of Just Stop Oil, called People Demand Democracy.....its the same 50 or some wankers time and time again.

    Ava Evans reports the protester’s name is Yaz Ashmawi, who’s also – obviously – a member of Extinction Rebellion. According to his Instagram profile, he’s responsible for their “UK strategy”.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Will 'My guess is' be written on your tombstone?

    Waahey, and a third one!
    Leon said:


    My guess is

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    WTAF. Absolutely barbaric.

    “The Israeli soldiers discovered babies with heads cut off”

    Hamas beheaded babies.

    https://x.com/HenMazzig/status/1711732906412884432?s=20

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atrocity_propaganda

    They'll have bite marks next.
    We have proof they have mutilated women and spat on their corpses - it's on video. We've seen them beheading a Thai worker captured in Israel - with a spade. It's on video. We have a woman clearly saying "they shot my baby in the head" - it's on video

    Yet cutting off a baby's head is impossible for these monsters?

    Why?

    It is clear they went into Israel armed with a pure bloodlust: telling them to hurt and kill as many Jews as badly as possible, in as many cruel ways as possible. My guess is virtually all these stories are true
    I don't doubt that they could've done it. Just certain accusations require proof and I think this is one. Its also true that disinformation is being smeared around the internet and very emotive stories are perfect for further justifying what the IDF are about to do.
    I agree. This is such an incendiary accusation it needs proof, and it is in a long tradition of "bayonetting babies and raping nuns" wartime propaganda which later turns out to be bollocks

    However I believe we have enough evidence, videos, bodies, eye witnesses, to conclude these fighters were in a state of crazed bloodlust, hoping to hurt and kill as many Jews as possible including children and babies

    My guess is this is true, but we need to see the proof. Not that I actually want to see it...

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Will 'My guess is' be written on your tombstone?
    Dude, you don't realise how, every day, I have to resist mercilessly mocking your English prose style. Don't go there
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
    I'm sceptical about a grand Iranian masterplan as there was no coordination with Hezbollah. Support, yes; money, yes; arms, yes; but control and coordination, the jury's out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?

    Surrey...of course he's from Surrey...
    Starmer's from Surrey and he's working class, don't ya know?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited October 2023


    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Will 'My guess is' be written on your tombstone?

    ...followed by five different dates, to maximise the chances of one of them being close?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,624

    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?

    Surrey...of course he's from Surrey...
    Apparently it was a stunt by a "political splinter group" of Just Stop Oil, called People Demand Democracy.....its the same 50 or some wankers time and time again.
    He was demanding "a people's house". Perhaps he imagines that we could divide the country into small areas and then everyone could vote for someone to represent them in this "people's house".

    It sounds a bit radical.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    "...I grew up working class. I’ve been fighting all my life. And I won’t stop now..."

    Can't he just learn to play nicely with other people ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Well that's it then. Job done. An absolute barnstarmer.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited October 2023
    Angela Rayner:

    "We will bring 10,000 more people into the NHS."

    It currently employs 1.27 million.

    So they are going to increaase staff by 0.8%.

    The whole thing is a complete waste of time.

    It doesn't matter who is in power - Sunak or Starmer. Nothing discernable is going to happen.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited October 2023
    edit
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Will 'My guess is' be written on your tombstone?
    Dude, you don't realise how, every day, I have to resist mercilessly mocking your English prose style. Don't go there
    Every day!
    Kudos, I've hitherto not seen the slightest sign of you being able to resist anything.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    edited October 2023
    As SKS will be entering Downing St. on a generally downbeat note I suppose there's two ways this could go

    1. He could surprise on the "up side". With everyone having such low expectations, maybe he'll actually be rather good at governmening and will be a pleasant surprise?

    2. He and Labour's poll rating goes south pretty much from day one as he and they prove out of their depth and no where near ready for government (think what would have happened if Labour had somehow won power in 1987 or the Tories in 2001/2005)

    I think option two is most likely, given the grim years we've got to come but you never know, we might get option one if we're lucky.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Rishi top story on LBC news.

    All that glitters is not gold.

    Think you mean Starmer, not Rishi.

    And yes, he comes well out of the story doesn't he? Great line: "Power not Protest. That's why we changed the party."

    Assume you will be sending credit where credit is due?
    No. Rishi's response to Hamas was the first story.
    https://www.lbc.co.uk
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?

    Doesn’t assault include giving someone a genuine reason to fear for their safety? Whilst no fan of SKS I would imagine a politician who is rushed on stage will have a genuine moment of fear that it could be a knife rather than glitter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
    I'm sceptical about a grand Iranian masterplan as there was no coordination with Hezbollah. Support, yes; money, yes; arms, yes; but control and coordination, the jury's out.
    There's a report that one of the senior terrorists was heard talking Farsi. My guess is this might just be Israeli misinfo, however

    The Iranians are obviously uncomfortable being too-closely associated with these hideous atrocities

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    MikeL said:

    New Towns:

    Jo Coburn: Where will they be? How many will there be?

    Angela Rayner: No attempt at an answer. General waffle re planning system. Talking about plots, landbanking, grey belt etc etc.

    To be fair, it's the same as Rishi's transport plans...

    Is it ?
    Can't you see the difference between the planning of a party that's in government - and has so been for over a decade - and one that's in opposition ?

    You might even end up being surprised.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    WTAF. Absolutely barbaric.

    “The Israeli soldiers discovered babies with heads cut off”

    Hamas beheaded babies.

    https://x.com/HenMazzig/status/1711732906412884432?s=20

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atrocity_propaganda

    They'll have bite marks next.
    We have proof they have mutilated women and spat on their corpses - it's on video. We've seen them beheading a Thai worker captured in Israel - with a spade. It's on video. We have a woman clearly saying "they shot my baby in the head" - it's on video

    Yet cutting off a baby's head is impossible for these monsters?

    Why?

    It is clear they went into Israel armed with a pure bloodlust: telling them to hurt and kill as many Jews as badly as possible, in as many cruel ways as possible. My guess is virtually all these stories are true
    I don't doubt that they could've done it. Just certain accusations require proof and I think this is one. Its also true that disinformation is being smeared around the internet and very emotive stories are perfect for further justifying what the IDF are about to do.
    I agree. This is such an incendiary accusation it needs proof, and it is in a long tradition of "bayonetting babies and raping nuns" wartime propaganda which later turns out to be bollocks

    However I believe we have enough evidence, videos, bodies, eye witnesses, to conclude these fighters were in a state of crazed bloodlust, hoping to hurt and kill as many Jews as possible including children and babies

    My guess is this is true, but we need to see the proof. Not that I actually want to see it...

    Wasn’t that the case in the Asian theatre of war, though? The last few days in Hong Kong were brutal.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023
    boulay said:

    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?

    Doesn’t assault include giving someone a genuine reason to fear for their safety? Whilst no fan of SKS I would imagine a politician who is rushed on stage will have a genuine moment of fear that it could be a knife rather than glitter.
    Be interesting if the eco-fascists have accidentally stepped themselves in the dodo of more serious charges with this one.

    Normally they are very careful / well briefed about the laws they are breaking i.e. ensuring they always fall into very low level categories e.g. sitting in the road and playing dead when somebody tries to engage or invading a sports pitch throwing the powder randomly in the air.

    I don't know what happened to the people who smashed on an egg on Jezza's head. I think they got in quite serious trouble because that is assault.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
    I'm sceptical about a grand Iranian masterplan as there was no coordination with Hezbollah. Support, yes; money, yes; arms, yes; but control and coordination, the jury's out.
    There's a report that one of the senior terrorists was heard talking Farsi. My guess is this might just be Israeli misinfo, however

    The Iranians are obviously uncomfortable being too-closely associated with these hideous atrocities

    The Israelis don't seem to think the Iranians were directly involved.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited October 2023
    Jeremy Corbyn:

    "As the Labour leadership rolls out the red carpet for climate vandals, arms firms and private healthcare, thousands of us are organising for the bold change this country needs."

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1711749030697394284?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Will 'My guess is' be written on your tombstone?
    Dude, you don't realise how, every day, I have to resist mercilessly mocking your English prose style. Don't go there
    Every day!
    Kudos, I've hitherto not seen the slightest sign of you being able to resist anything.
    Yes every day you produce some howlingly awkward, cringeworthy phrase that is obviously trying to impress, but sounds like the writing of some over-amibitous 14 year old who has mistakenly been told by a teacher that he's "good at English"

    If you're REALLY lucky and I'm in a generous mood I might point a few out, in future
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
    I'm sceptical about a grand Iranian masterplan as there was no coordination with Hezbollah. Support, yes; money, yes; arms, yes; but control and coordination, the jury's out.
    I think it's a bit early to say that there is no coordination with Hezbollah. We're all focused on the initial shock of the attack, and so it's natural to think it would have been more shocking if Hezbollah had attacked from the north on the same day.

    But the plan seems to be a bit more than that, with hostages taken to draw Israel into a lengthy and costly ground campaign in Gaza, with Hamas presumably having many ambushes ready and waiting. This could drag on for a long time, and Hezbollah may yet play a part later.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Nigelb said:

    "...I grew up working class. I’ve been fighting all my life. And I won’t stop now..."

    Can't he just learn to play nicely with other people ?

    You don't "take back our streets" by being Mr Nice Guy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?

    Surrey...of course he's from Surrey...
    Apparently it was a stunt by a "political splinter group" of Just Stop Oil, called People Demand Democracy.....its the same 50 or some wankers time and time again.
    He was demanding "a people's house". Perhaps he imagines that we could divide the country into small areas and then everyone could vote for someone to represent them in this "people's house".

    It sounds a bit radical.
    The cause is PR in fact. Electoral reform. My guess is Ed Davey is behind it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    Wow.


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Thin on detail. But it’s not meant to be a policy seminar. Starmer’s critique of the Tories was devastating. And his argument for change compelling. Suspect we will come to see this as the moment he sealed the deal.

    Hodges is convinced he’ll win? He’s screwed. Time to up my bet on the Tories.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Leon said:

    I'm remarkably content for Starmer to become PM, despite being a rightwinger. The Tories are obviously done, Labour need a go, I like the idea of Georgian new towns

    I have just one request of the incoming Labour government. That I never ever ever have to listen to Keir Starmer speak, ever again. Thanks

    Indeed he is is the ideal after dinner speaker for older members of Accrington Rotary on a wet Wednesday afternoon. Fine with me. He presents as kind, decent, honourable, family minded, a bit long winded and loyal. In current circumstances it'll do.

    As we don't live in North Korea his speeches are unlikely to be compulsory viewing.

    If you want lively speeches, plenty are available all over the world in the cause of justifying baby killers in the Middle East. Stick with 'One Nil To The Arsenal' Sir K.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023
    I see Starmer was talking about banning zero hour contracts. It seems self defeating as we know there is a not insignificant number of people who actually like that arrangement and it gives flexibility to employee and employer, particularly to small businesses to hire "agency" work.

    Surely there is a sensible middle ground i.e. if somebody works for x months, a worker must be given the opportunity to move to a contract that includes consistent hours, because then it is clear that it isn't a temporary agency arrangement. When I did temp work back in the day, the good companies already did this, they used the busy periods to hire agency staff, which enabled them to effectively trial for potentially good new full timers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Will 'My guess is' be written on your tombstone?
    Dude, you don't realise how, every day, I have to resist mercilessly mocking your English prose style. Don't go there
    Every day!
    Kudos, I've hitherto not seen the slightest sign of you being able to resist anything.
    Hey, TUD, do we feel generous enough to comment on his attempts at Scots?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
    I'm sceptical about a grand Iranian masterplan as there was no coordination with Hezbollah. Support, yes; money, yes; arms, yes; but control and coordination, the jury's out.
    There's a report that one of the senior terrorists was heard talking Farsi. My guess is this might just be Israeli misinfo, however

    The Iranians are obviously uncomfortable being too-closely associated with these hideous atrocities

    The Israelis don't seem to think the Iranians were directly involved.
    Or they might say that to avoid the need for a direct clash with Iran, for now?

    All very complicated
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    Hamas have succeeded in pushing a lot of people - in the West at least - from thinking that it's all too complicated and not wanting to take sides, to firmly backing Israel.

    If they’re after a clash of civilisations they might not mind that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,152
    MikeL said:

    Jeremy Corbyn:

    "As the Labour leadership rolls out the red carpet for climate vandals, arms firms and private healthcare, thousands of us are organising for the bold change this country needs."

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1711749030697394284?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    He's emigrating?
  • Hamas have succeeded in pushing a lot of people - in the West at least - from thinking that it's all too complicated and not wanting to take sides, to firmly backing Israel.

    Israel needs to be wary of sending world opinion back the other way. Their need for security and the elimination of Hamas is clear but a war against all Palestinians or a long siege of Gaza risks doing that. The United States might need to urge restraint.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    I'm remarkably content for Starmer to become PM, despite being a rightwinger. The Tories are obviously done, Labour need a go, I like the idea of Georgian new towns

    I have just one request of the incoming Labour government. That I never ever ever have to listen to Keir Starmer speak, ever again. Thanks

    Indeed he is is the ideal after dinner speaker for older members of Accrington Rotary on a wet Wednesday afternoon. Fine with me. He presents as kind, decent, honourable, family minded, a bit long winded and loyal. In current circumstances it'll do.

    As we don't live in North Korea his speeches are unlikely to be compulsory viewing.

    If you want lively speeches, plenty are available all over the world in the cause of justifying baby killers in the Middle East. Stick with 'One Nil To The Arsenal' Sir K.
    Yep, it's fine. He's a boring speaker. It's not a big deal. I just won't everl isten to him in case I stab my eyes out with a blunt pencil
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited October 2023
    TimS said:

    Hamas have succeeded in pushing a lot of people - in the West at least - from thinking that it's all too complicated and not wanting to take sides, to firmly backing Israel.

    If they’re after a clash of civilisations they might not mind that.
    The “final battle” didn’t work out so well for ISIS. I hope this mob want it too.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited October 2023
    GIN1138 said:

    As SKS will be entering Downing St. on a generally downbeat note I suppose there's two ways this could go

    1. He could surprise on the "up side". With everyone having such low expectations, maybe he'll actually be rather good at governmening and will be a pleasant surprise?

    2. He and Labour's poll rating goes south pretty much from day one as he and they prove out of their depth and no where near ready for government (think what would have happened if Labour had somehow won power in 1987 or the Tories in 2001/2005)

    I think option two is most likely, given the grim years we've got to come but you never know, we might get option one if we're lucky.

    I suspect it's going to be a variation of the 2. Labour won't surprise to the upside but the forthcoming navel gazing as Suella Braverman becomes Tory party leader will ensure that Labour will be very much the preferred option for a lot of people...

    Much in the way Bozo won in 2019 because Corbyn was the other option come 2028/9 Labour will do well because the other option is so hideous...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Steve Bell sailing close to the wind, again.

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1711695587177828542

    I can't understand why the Guardian keep him on. It's not as is his cartoons are insightful or funny...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    boulay said:

    We've just had this from Merseyside Police: "We can confirm that a 28-year-old man from Surrey has been arrested following an incident at the Labour Party conference earlier this afternoon.

    "The man was detained by security at the event and handed over to the police who arrested him on suspicion of S39 assault, breach of the peace and causing public nuisance.

    assault.....with a weapon of mass destruction that was a bag of glitter?

    Doesn’t assault include giving someone a genuine reason to fear for their safety? Whilst no fan of SKS I would imagine a politician who is rushed on stage will have a genuine moment of fear that it could be a knife rather than glitter.
    Yes. Assault, in law, does not always require actual physical violence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    lol. Right on cue



  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Nigelb said:

    "...I grew up working class. I’ve been fighting all my life. And I won’t stop now..."

    Can't he just learn to play nicely with other people ?

    Could at least limit it to Saturday nights
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited October 2023
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    As SKS will be entering Downing St. on a generally downbeat note I suppose there's two ways this could go

    1. He could surprise on the "up side". With everyone having such low expectations, maybe he'll actually be rather good at governmening and will be a pleasant surprise?

    2. He and Labour's poll rating goes south pretty much from day one as he and they prove out of their depth and no where near ready for government (think what would have happened if Labour had somehow won power in 1987 or the Tories in 2001/2005)

    I think option two is most likely, given the grim years we've got to come but you never know, we might get option one if we're lucky.

    I suspect it's going to be a variation of the 2. Labour won't surprise to the upside but the forthcoming navel gazing as Suella Braverman becomes Tory party leader will ensure that Labour will be very much the preferred option for a lot of people...

    Much in the way Bozo won in 2019 because Corbyn was the other option come 2028/9 Labour will do well because the other option is so hideous...
    Much depends on the “shape” of the residual parliamentary Conservative Party. 200-230 of them in the right places, and a sniff of a fast return, and they might pick a winner.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Hamas have succeeded in pushing a lot of people - in the West at least - from thinking that it's all too complicated and not wanting to take sides, to firmly backing Israel.

    Israel needs to be wary of sending world opinion back the other way. Their need for security and the elimination of Hamas is clear but a war against all Palestinians or a long siege of Gaza risks doing that. The United States might need to urge restraint.
    Indeed. There was massive sympathy for the USA initially after 9/11, but squandered.

    Keeping world opinion onside while obliterating Gaza is not a straightforward task, but Israel rather prefers the Milwall approach to popularity.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
    I'm sceptical about a grand Iranian masterplan as there was no coordination with Hezbollah. Support, yes; money, yes; arms, yes; but control and coordination, the jury's out.
    There's a report that one of the senior terrorists was heard talking Farsi. My guess is this might just be Israeli misinfo, however

    The Iranians are obviously uncomfortable being too-closely associated with these hideous atrocities
    I'm hearing the Iranians were probably not involved in the detailed planning or execution of the attack.
  • MikeL said:

    Jeremy Corbyn:

    "As the Labour leadership rolls out the red carpet for climate vandals, arms firms and private healthcare, thousands of us are organising for the bold change this country needs."

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1711749030697394284?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    A cruel person might point out that Corbyn just possibly fluffed his best chance of securing "the bold change this country needs" when he lost those two elections as leader of the Labour Party, and no amount of placard waving now is going to alter that reality.
  • Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Will 'My guess is' be written on your tombstone?
    Dude, you don't realise how, every day, I have to resist mercilessly mocking your English prose style. Don't go there
    Every day!
    Kudos, I've hitherto not seen the slightest sign of you being able to resist anything.
    Hey, TUD, do we feel generous enough to comment on his attempts at Scots?
    We are gentle folk, unwilling to make someone feel uncomfortable over their gauche, clichéd attempts to be down with the Jocks.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
    Also, like Mexican drug traffickers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023

    Steve Bell sailing close to the wind, again.

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1711695587177828542

    I can't understand why the Guardian keep him on. It's not as is his cartoons are insightful or funny...

    Everybody can say something ill judged, push the boundary and end up getting it wrong / overstepping the mark, but there does seem to be a consistent pattern to how often / what topics his cartoons end up in this territory.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    It looks like all of the existent classic Doctor Who episodes are coming to iPlayer for the 60th.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/2023/doctor-who-archive-on-bbc-iplayer
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    As SKS will be entering Downing St. on a generally downbeat note I suppose there's two ways this could go

    1. He could surprise on the "up side". With everyone having such low expectations, maybe he'll actually be rather good at governmening and will be a pleasant surprise?

    2. He and Labour's poll rating goes south pretty much from day one as he and they prove out of their depth and no where near ready for government (think what would have happened if Labour had somehow won power in 1987 or the Tories in 2001/2005)

    I think option two is most likely, given the grim years we've got to come but you never know, we might get option one if we're lucky.

    I suspect it's going to be a variation of the 2. Labour won't surprise to the upside but the forthcoming navel gazing as Suella Braverman becomes Tory party leader will ensure that Labour will be very much the preferred option for a lot of people...

    Much in the way Bozo won in 2019 because Corbyn was the other option come 2028/9 Labour will do well because the other option is so hideous...
    You could be right... I don't think Sue Ellen will become LOTO though. The MP's won't put her through to the membership.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Foxy said:

    Hamas have succeeded in pushing a lot of people - in the West at least - from thinking that it's all too complicated and not wanting to take sides, to firmly backing Israel.

    Israel needs to be wary of sending world opinion back the other way. Their need for security and the elimination of Hamas is clear but a war against all Palestinians or a long siege of Gaza risks doing that. The United States might need to urge restraint.
    Indeed. There was massive sympathy for the USA initially after 9/11, but squandered.

    Keeping world opinion onside while obliterating Gaza is not a straightforward task, but Israel rather prefers the Milwall approach to popularity.
    Millwall fans were not hunted to near-extinction by various governments just eighty years ago.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited October 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is the Hamas guys were TOLD to be as grotesquely evil as possible, as that is what gets clicks and propaganda impact these days. They filmed much of what they did, even the beheadings. And they put it online

    The idea is to instill terror in Israelis and impress potential recruits, a la ISIS

    These atrocities are more like ISIS than Hamas. Were the men on the ground ex-ISIS, or the leadership, or just too many ISIS videos watched for motivation?
    It is extremely like ISIS, from the go-pro camerawork to the slick little videos to the film-every-horror aesthetic

    Apparently it was all organised by Iran so maybe it is the Iranians who learned from ISIS?
    I'm sceptical about a grand Iranian masterplan as there was no coordination with Hezbollah. Support, yes; money, yes; arms, yes; but control and coordination, the jury's out.
    There's a report that one of the senior terrorists was heard talking Farsi. My guess is this might just be Israeli misinfo, however

    The Iranians are obviously uncomfortable being too-closely associated with these hideous atrocities
    I'm hearing the Iranians were probably not involved in the detailed planning or execution of the attack.
    Occam’s razor. Iran does not benefit from an attack that extreme.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Steve Bell sailing close to the wind, again.

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1711695587177828542

    I can't understand why the Guardian keep him on. It's not as is his cartoons are insightful or funny...

    Everybody can say something ill judged, push the boundary and end up getting it wrong / overstepping the mark, but there does seem to be a consistent pattern to how often / what topics his cartoons end up in this territory.
    Not one of his cartoons has ever even made me smile, let alone laugh. He's shite. His continued employment is a decided mystery, quite apart from the alleged racism
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    Foxy said:

    Hamas have succeeded in pushing a lot of people - in the West at least - from thinking that it's all too complicated and not wanting to take sides, to firmly backing Israel.

    Israel needs to be wary of sending world opinion back the other way. Their need for security and the elimination of Hamas is clear but a war against all Palestinians or a long siege of Gaza risks doing that. The United States might need to urge restraint.
    Indeed. There was massive sympathy for the USA initially after 9/11, but squandered.

    Keeping world opinion onside while obliterating Gaza is not a straightforward task, but Israel rather prefers the Milwall approach to popularity.
    There's also a chunk of the West that's tired of 'measured' responses to Islamism and will be interested in seeing how this plays out in the long term.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    Steve Bell sailing close to the wind, again.

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1711695587177828542

    I can't understand why the Guardian keep him on. It's not as is his cartoons are insightful or funny...

    Everybody can say something ill judged, push the boundary and end up getting it wrong / overstepping the mark, but there does seem to be a consistent pattern to how often / what topics his cartoons end up in this territory.
    Not one of his cartoons has ever even made me smile, let alone laugh. He's shite. His continued employment is a decided mystery, quite apart from the alleged racism
    Journalist Melanie Phillips recounts her time at the Guardian in this video (13 mins in)...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjOgKHw6HY4
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Leon said:

    My guess is

    Will 'My guess is' be written on your tombstone?
    Dude, you don't realise how, every day, I have to resist mercilessly mocking your English prose style. Don't go there
    Every day!
    Kudos, I've hitherto not seen the slightest sign of you being able to resist anything.
    Hey, TUD, do we feel generous enough to comment on his attempts at Scots?
    We are gentle folk, unwilling to make someone feel uncomfortable over their gauche, clichéd attempts to be down with the Jocks.
    Agreed, then. Ca canny.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    Leon said:

    Steve Bell sailing close to the wind, again.

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1711695587177828542

    I can't understand why the Guardian keep him on. It's not as is his cartoons are insightful or funny...

    Everybody can say something ill judged, push the boundary and end up getting it wrong / overstepping the mark, but there does seem to be a consistent pattern to how often / what topics his cartoons end up in this territory.
    Not one of his cartoons has ever even made me smile, let alone laugh. He's shite. His continued employment is a decided mystery, quite apart from the alleged racism
    He has never been amusing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    biggles said:

    Wow.


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Thin on detail. But it’s not meant to be a policy seminar. Starmer’s critique of the Tories was devastating. And his argument for change compelling. Suspect we will come to see this as the moment he sealed the deal.

    Hodges is convinced he’ll win? He’s screwed. Time to up my bet on the Tories.
    Yes, it takes a lot to shake my very firm view that a Labour majority is nailed on but this comes as close as you can get.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Leon said:

    Steve Bell sailing close to the wind, again.

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1711695587177828542

    I can't understand why the Guardian keep him on. It's not as is his cartoons are insightful or funny...

    Everybody can say something ill judged, push the boundary and end up getting it wrong / overstepping the mark, but there does seem to be a consistent pattern to how often / what topics his cartoons end up in this territory.
    Not one of his cartoons has ever even made me smile, let alone laugh. He's shite. His continued employment is a decided mystery, quite apart from the alleged racism
    A ‘like’ given by a regular and financially committed Grauniad reader.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    BTW, whilst some are keen for the news to move onto the evil Israeli response to this minor transgression by a few Palestinians, Israel is still getting hit by missiles:

    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1711749857436737819

    (/sarcasm mode)
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Leon said:

    lol. Right on cue



    Honest , boring , good .

    A lot better than Sunaks . Maybe the UK needs boring after the Tory psychodramas of recent years .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    GIN1138 said:

    As SKS will be entering Downing St. on a generally downbeat note I suppose there's two ways this could go

    1. He could surprise on the "up side". With everyone having such low expectations, maybe he'll actually be rather good at governmening and will be a pleasant surprise?

    2. He and Labour's poll rating goes south pretty much from day one as he and they prove out of their depth and no where near ready for government (think what would have happened if Labour had somehow won power in 1987 or the Tories in 2001/2005)

    I think option two is most likely, given the grim years we've got to come but you never know, we might get option one if we're lucky.

    1 is more likely imo but it's best to expect 2 so I won't try and talk you out of it.
  • Hamas have succeeded in pushing a lot of people - in the West at least - from thinking that it's all too complicated and not wanting to take sides, to firmly backing Israel.

    Israel needs to be wary of sending world opinion back the other way. Their need for security and the elimination of Hamas is clear but a war against all Palestinians or a long siege of Gaza risks doing that. The United States might need to urge restraint.
    Yes. The main beneficiaries of a bloodbath in Gaza will be the Russians, especially if the West gives the impression of turning a blind eye to it.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited October 2023
    biggles said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    As SKS will be entering Downing St. on a generally downbeat note I suppose there's two ways this could go

    1. He could surprise on the "up side". With everyone having such low expectations, maybe he'll actually be rather good at governmening and will be a pleasant surprise?

    2. He and Labour's poll rating goes south pretty much from day one as he and they prove out of their depth and no where near ready for government (think what would have happened if Labour had somehow won power in 1987 or the Tories in 2001/2005)

    I think option two is most likely, given the grim years we've got to come but you never know, we might get option one if we're lucky.

    I suspect it's going to be a variation of the 2. Labour won't surprise to the upside but the forthcoming navel gazing as Suella Braverman becomes Tory party leader will ensure that Labour will be very much the preferred option for a lot of people...

    Much in the way Bozo won in 2019 because Corbyn was the other option come 2028/9 Labour will do well because the other option is so hideous...
    Much depends on the “shape” of the residual parliamentary Conservative Party. 200-230 of them in the right places, and a sniff of a fast return, and they might pick a winner.
    It is hard to see a situation where both candidates MPs put through to the members' ballot are from the sensible wing given that, unless the 1922 Committee really get tough on nomination requirements, one-third of MPs is the most you need to get on the ballot (Leadsom and Hunt both got second place with a quarter of MPs, Truss got just under a third).

    Whilst the 1922 Committee did deliberately lock out the membership in October 2022 to get Truss out quick before she did further damage, it is hard to see that happening in opposition where the urgency just isn't there.

    On that basis, there will be a candidate from the loony wing, and they will have a very good chance of winning amongst the membership, whether the bulk of Tory MPs like it or not. It will take a defeat for that candidate in 2028 for sentiment in the party to change, I suspect. I further suspect the next Tory PM is not yet in Parliament.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Foxy said:

    Hamas have succeeded in pushing a lot of people - in the West at least - from thinking that it's all too complicated and not wanting to take sides, to firmly backing Israel.

    Israel needs to be wary of sending world opinion back the other way. Their need for security and the elimination of Hamas is clear but a war against all Palestinians or a long siege of Gaza risks doing that. The United States might need to urge restraint.
    Indeed. There was massive sympathy for the USA initially after 9/11, but squandered.

    Keeping world opinion onside while obliterating Gaza is not a straightforward task, but Israel rather prefers the Milwall approach to popularity.
    Millwall fans were not hunted to near-extinction by various governments just eighty years ago.
    European governments.
  • Steve Bell sailing close to the wind, again.

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1711695587177828542

    I can't understand why the Guardian keep him on. It's not as is his cartoons are insightful or funny...

    Steve Bell hasn't worked for the Guardian since 2021.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    BTW, whilst some are keen for the news to move onto the evil Israeli response to this minor transgression by a few Palestinians, Israel is still getting hit by missiles:

    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1711749857436737819

    (/sarcasm mode)

    Yes. Ashkelon is getting quite badly hit by Hamas missiles, and there are new reports of Hamas militants arriving there by sea....
  • nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    lol. Right on cue



    Honest , boring , good .

    A lot better than Sunaks . Maybe the UK needs boring after the Tory psychodramas of recent years .
    I'm not entirely convinced that everyone can distinguish Starmer from Sunak. Most people have got more to worry about than politics, so faced with two vaguely posh politicians with similar names, might be thinking of the wrong one.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    As SKS will be entering Downing St. on a generally downbeat note I suppose there's two ways this could go

    1. He could surprise on the "up side". With everyone having such low expectations, maybe he'll actually be rather good at governmening and will be a pleasant surprise?

    2. He and Labour's poll rating goes south pretty much from day one as he and they prove out of their depth and no where near ready for government (think what would have happened if Labour had somehow won power in 1987 or the Tories in 2001/2005)

    I think option two is most likely, given the grim years we've got to come but you never know, we might get option one if we're lucky.

    1 is more likely imo but it's best to expect 2 so I won't try and talk you out of it.
    Well I'll be voting Labour for the first time since the 1997 election anyway, as the Tories are done for and it's inconceivable they could govern for another term.

    So it'll be a case of X for Labour and 🤞
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    edited October 2023
    FPT

    .

    TOPPING said:

    This discussion is the essence of what Barty would call Nimbyism. He would build 20 houses in the field next door to him and sod everyone else because development. But people forget externalities. That is why there is the planning procedure. If those 20 houses need sewers, water, electricity, road access then that affects the community and has to be paid for. It can't be hand waved away.

    If it needs paying for then everyone should pay for it, if it's public infrastructure.

    Don't want to pay for new schools? Then we need to live in a state without population growth. But if we live in a state with population growth then absolutely everyone in that state should pay their taxes not just a minority.

    There's no pollution or externality from new homes. Extra people bring extra demand but cramming those extra people into overcrowded slums doesn't cut demand. A child living in an overcrowded home needs a school just as much, and needs extra support from teachers/schools/taxpayers because they don't have space of their own at home to study.
    Your position fosters the very NIMBYism you profess to hate.

    Say there is a need for 50k homes across two adjacent local authority areas.

    If you just say the 50k homes pay Council Tax, but all the capital cost of infrastructure to support 100k+ new residents falls on taxpayers in the area as a whole, it's just deeply unattractive to have those new homes in your area. Not only do you get your area built on, but you pay a fortune for the privilege. Much better to put every obstacle in the way of it happening so the neighbouring authority has to deal with it.

    If, however, the buyers of the homes (via the developer) pay a levy for additional infrastructure (as well as expanding the tax base), sure you've still got some NIMBYs complaining. But some of the people in the area, and certainly councillors and the Council think, "Hang on, we're going to get that new school people want, plus a road upgrade nearby and a leisure centre... so maybe we can face down the people whining about a new estate being built because we all get an infrastructure upgrade".
    I never said it should be funded by Council Tax. Nor should it be funded by those paying new buildings alone.

    It should be funded by the entire country. Central funding, in a grant if needed, based on the changing circumstances.

    If a new school is needed, that should be funded by the Department for Education, centrally.

    And that should be done based on the number of children in the area, not the number of houses. 10,000 children in 5,000 houses need the same education as 10,000 children in 50,000 houses.

    So yes, say that people will get the school, the leisure centre etc but send that bill where it belongs, don't have a tiny fraction of locals paying for it while the rest of the country does nothing.

    Almost all taxes go to the Chancellor, centrally. The local authority budget should be to maintain and operate services not account for rampant population growth that's been determined by central government policies to which central government is taking the taxes.

    Why should only a fraction of taxpayers shoulder the entire burden of population growth? It should be consistent and applied to all.
    You've changed your position from earlier in the debate, which is progress at least.

    You had said, "Just cut out the middle man and get Councils to pull their finger out and do their own job" and indicated you thought s106/CIL should simply be abolished.

    Now you appear to accept that councils don't have the money for that investment, and say central Government should write a fat cheque to local authorities based on homes taken. That's fine - I'm not sure councils care that much who signs the cheque.

    Then it's a question of how you fund it given it ultimately falls on the taxpayer and there are very few "good" taxes. It wouldn't be ludicrous to do it via a levy on sales of new build properties. If you want to do it via income tax, corporation tax, or VAT, knock yourself out - but you do need some kind of adequately funded system to replace the current one.
    There's a difference between saying it should be done, and it should be done via Council Tax, I never said the latter so apologies for the confusion if that's what you thought I meant. I believe Councils get a not-insignificant portion of funding from Central Government in the form of grants etc, not just Council Tax. I think its reasonable to consider that if a local area has seen rampant population growth which is going to need infrastructure, that yes Central Government taxes should fund that infrastructure. It is Central Government that determines immigration policies etc and gets the taxes, so if the population is growing then yes Central Government needs to take responsibility for any infrastructure changes that requires as a result of their policies.

    Rather than taking all the benefits of taxes from migrants who work to fund pensions etc, but then dumping all the infrastructure costs on someone else.

    I said s106 should be abolished and all should pay for communal infrastructure that is needed due to population growth via taxes, by all I meant all, not only locals.

    There ought to be able to be a formula that sees grants allocated on the basis of new housing developments. As suggested by someone else earlier this should ameliorate NIMBYism as more development = more infrastructure, but it should be funded collectively since its collective infrastructure, not just funded by those who have to get a new house while others who already have one and have collective infrastructure already don't contribute a penny.

    This also means of course that any areas that are completely against development could still be considered to be paying for development, since it would be collectively paid for nationwide, but just not seeing any of that development themselves. Which is reasonable, as they chose not to have the development, but they're still part of the same country and part of the same collective tax system. The costs of population growth should be shared by everyone in the population, not just those who are young or mobile and need a home of their own.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023

    Steve Bell sailing close to the wind, again.

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1711695587177828542

    I can't understand why the Guardian keep him on. It's not as is his cartoons are insightful or funny...

    Steve Bell hasn't worked for the Guardian since 2021.
    By that you mean he is freelance, because his cartoons are still published by the Guardian and they apparently they now vet all his cartoons. This particular one they pulled from todays Guardian and it is him making a scene about it, saying I don't understand, it seems all fine to me.


    Spiked again. It is getting pretty nigh impossible to draw this subject for the Guardian now without being accused of deploying "antisemitic tropes".

    https://x.com/BellBelltoons/status/1711475941061398894?s=20

    Don't deploy antisemitic tropes then....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    So, did SKS get through his entire speech without F'ing and blinding then? That's self discipline, right enough.
  • biggles said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    As SKS will be entering Downing St. on a generally downbeat note I suppose there's two ways this could go

    1. He could surprise on the "up side". With everyone having such low expectations, maybe he'll actually be rather good at governmening and will be a pleasant surprise?

    2. He and Labour's poll rating goes south pretty much from day one as he and they prove out of their depth and no where near ready for government (think what would have happened if Labour had somehow won power in 1987 or the Tories in 2001/2005)

    I think option two is most likely, given the grim years we've got to come but you never know, we might get option one if we're lucky.

    I suspect it's going to be a variation of the 2. Labour won't surprise to the upside but the forthcoming navel gazing as Suella Braverman becomes Tory party leader will ensure that Labour will be very much the preferred option for a lot of people...

    Much in the way Bozo won in 2019 because Corbyn was the other option come 2028/9 Labour will do well because the other option is so hideous...
    Much depends on the “shape” of the residual parliamentary Conservative Party. 200-230 of them in the right places, and a sniff of a fast return, and they might pick a winner.
    It is hard to see a situation where both candidates MPs put through to the members' ballot are from the sensible wing given that, unless the 1922 Committee really get tough on nomination requirements, one-third of MPs is the most you need to get on the ballot (Leadsom and Hunt both got second place with a quarter of MPs, Truss got just under a third).

    Whilst the 1922 Committee did deliberately lock out the membership in October 2022 to get Truss out quick before she did further damage, it is hard to see that happening in opposition where the urgency just isn't there.

    On that basis, there will be a candidate from the loony wing, and they will have a very good chance of winning amongst the membership, whether the bulk of Tory MPs like it or not. It will take a defeat for that candidate in 2028 for sentiment in the party to change, I suspect. I further suspect the next Tory PM is not yet in Parliament.
    There was a big influx of new members (don't say Brexiteer entryists) into the Conservative Party recently. I wonder if Rishi might be persuaded to stay on for a few months in the hope that some memberships might lapse.
This discussion has been closed.