Just heard the news about McCarthy, (since I was in a cinema watching The Exorcist).
Was there any warning that this might happen?
Some of us predicted this pretty much exactly as it played out, that McCarthy would pass a continuation bill with Democrat support to avoid the shutdown, and then get voted out of office by his own party.
Massive win for Gaetz and friends, who want to debate budget bills by individual department and project, rather than a massive unreadable up-or-down continuation bill, with the threat of shutting down the whole federal government if it’s voted down.
The House can now do very little else, until they’ve selected a new speaker.
I think it is near certain that the US Federal Government will shut down in six weeks time. And it is also likely that it will stay shut for some time. Whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans that get the blame this could be a major factor in determining the 2024 Presidential election.
I can confidently predict Democrats will blame the Republicans and Republicans will blame the Democrats.
The economy will determine the 2024 election, and the shut down is bad for the economy, particularly if lengthy.
There is only one party which wants a shutdown. The Democrats would get rid of the absurd 'debt limit', if they could. The GOP is effectively voting not to fund spending commitments Congress has already voted for.
Sure, if you want to know which party is to blame its clearly the Republicans, for too many reasons to list.
If you want to know, electorally, which party gets the blame, its very likely a push as each side blames each other and the stalemate continues.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
In which period did they get most actual domestic policy change done? 2010-2015, during coalition.
Not all to everyone’s taste of course, and some of it downright unpopular, but it was a functioning government of the sort that’s been absent ever since.
Easily the best government we've had in the last 15 years. And yet the Lib Dems are still maligned, which I find strange.
My assumption is that the stuff on health and A-levels, as well as HS2, is chicken feed and he's saving up a few big announcements and surprises for his speech. It would also explain why Hunt's speech was so short.
That's on the basis he's actually that creative and calculating, though.
Based on the rather poor and unmemorable slogan, "long term decisions for a brighter future", which sounds like it was written by a committee, the big reveal might simply be a case of the emperor has no clothes.
Maybe the major announcement will be the go ahead for Crossrail 2
Yes Minister or The Thick of It can't come close to how bonkers this government really is.
Why are they still talking about 40 new hospitals when everyone knows there arent going to be 40 new hospitals.
Boris could get away with it, because he was Boris. Sunak is supposed to be Mr Spreadsheet and Details, he just looks like a lying fool when he tries this shit.
I wonder what the polling impact of this week will be. Surely no conference bounce, but will the Tories lose support? Or will the 5-8% RefUK bloc be reassured enough by Braverman and Co to offset any red wall or wavering centrist losses? Hard to tell. Also hard to tell whether it’s all “cut through” to the public or not. RAAC did, which surprised me, so perhaps the HS2 dither will too.
Probably need to wait for later next week to get polls that fully reflect the PR impact of this conference. Though it’ll all be complicated by the by-elections of course.
Unless Labour really cock up next week in a Liverpool, which seems unlikely - I expect it to be slick (I’ll be there on Monday doing a panel so will report back) - I’d expect a little conference bounce for them. Possibly at the expense of the Lib Dems and Greens.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Granted, on your terms they haven't had a fair run at a positive prospectus, but how come they have managed at the same time to unleash so much fire and brimstone on the economy, social cohesion, our ability to trade internationally and our standing as a global player?
If we are looking back at the Coalition years as the best of the last 13, then the obvious choice at the next election is to vote LibDem..
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
In which period did they get most actual domestic policy change done? 2010-2015, during coalition.
Not all to everyone’s taste of course, and some of it downright unpopular, but it was a functioning government of the sort that’s been absent ever since.
Easily the best government we've had in the last 15 years. And yet the Lib Dems are still maligned, which I find strange.
Downside of being seen as the Gareth Keenan to the Tories’ David Brent.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
In which period did they get most actual domestic policy change done? 2010-2015, during coalition.
Not all to everyone’s taste of course, and some of it downright unpopular, but it was a functioning government of the sort that’s been absent ever since.
Easily the best government we've had in the last 15 years. And yet the Lib Dems are still maligned, which I find strange.
Downside of being seen as the Gareth Keenan to the Tories’ David Brent.
That's quite the image. A little unfair, but anyway
Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.
I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus". Not likely to go down well.
Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
Voters in redwall Greater Manchester seats do NOT live in Manchester city itself and rarely go on the train to London.
They would much rather have new buses and potholes repaired than HS2
Looking at HYUFD's post again, I do wonder whether this is what went through some SPAD's mind. "Voters in Leigh and Bury North are simple people. They don't want to go to London. They certainly don't want change - investment in Greater Manchester would frighten them. If we cancel HS2 they will understand and love us. We should announce it when we go to Manchester for the conference just to maximise the feel-good we will get from it."
Point of order that Bury North is a swing seat, not ‘red wall’.
Kemi Badenoch becomes bookies' favourite for next Conservative leader The Business Secretary emerged as a frontrunner to succeed Sunak after her performance at the annual party conference ... Ms Badenoch is the frontrunner with odds of 7/2, followed by Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, at 5/1, odds published by the bookmakers Coral show. Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, takes third place with odds of 9/1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/03/kemi-badenoch-next-conservative-leader-rishi-sunak/ (£££)
I see the Daily Mail claque, led by Quentin Letts, is massively bigging up the hugely unpopular Sue Ellen this morning... which gave me a word cloud of "scraping the bottom of the barrel", "dead end", "useless loser", "perma-defeat" and "collapse" amongst others.
One of the striking features of the HS2 debacle, apart from the political ineptness of the leaks, is that support of HS2 is stronger on the right than the left.
Sunak is trying to piss off his few remaining voters.
It makes sense if you consider the most important factor in voting patterns - age.
Younger people are more likely to use public transport to get around than older commuters. (WFH rates don't vary with age much except for 16-24, who turn up for work)
Couples with dependent children and older couples (over 65) are the car owners. Single parents and single-person households have much lower rates of access.
And, without being tactless, those of our older friends who are a bit selfish will have worked out that they won't really benefit from a project set to open in fifteen years time.
Much better to spend the money on something we/they can use now.
#anymorefurniturewecanburn?
I was certainly wondering why I was worrying about HS2. Originally it was touted as a way to get from, say, Edinburgh to Brussels direct without going through central London (ie by way of Stratford in N London) by about now, but then they cut the HS2-HS1 link and it all got worse from then on. I've given up hope of ever having a ride on it.
This lot couldn't put together my Brio wooden toy railway c. 1965, let alone Pete Waterman's model railway layout.
HS2 is being announced now, early this morning, so it clears the airwaves for other stuff when Sunak makes his speech later today.
So something is coming.
Free chess set for every house?
We've already had a preview.
...We’ve already had a sneak preview of some of the things Rishi Sunak will say in his speech later, and in it he’ll reflect on his first year as prime minister.
He will say that “politics doesn’t work the way it should”, before setting out how he wants to change the way our political system works and end the 30-year political status quo.
“We’ve had 30 years of a political system which incentivises the easy decision, not the right one” he will tell the Conservative Party Conference.
“Our political system is too focused on short term advantage, not long-term success. Our mission is to fundamentally change our country.”..
Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.
I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus". Not likely to go down well.
Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
Voters in redwall Greater Manchester seats do NOT live in Manchester city itself and rarely go on the train to London.
They would much rather have new buses and potholes repaired than HS2
Looking at HYUFD's post again, I do wonder whether this is what went through some SPAD's mind. "Voters in Leigh and Bury North are simple people. They don't want to go to London. They certainly don't want change - investment in Greater Manchester would frighten them. If we cancel HS2 they will understand and love us. We should announce it when we go to Manchester for the conference just to maximise the feel-good we will get from it."
Point of order that Bury North is a swing seat, not ‘red wall’.
And also (I know I bang on about this) but just because a conservative seat is in the north of England doesn’t make it ‘red wall’. Places like Bramhall and Marple are very different to Bassetlaw and Mansfield. And if they boot the Tories there (which I think they will) they’ll go yellow, not red.
There are only a maybe dozen actual red wall seats, tops.
Kemi Badenoch becomes bookies' favourite for next Conservative leader The Business Secretary emerged as a frontrunner to succeed Sunak after her performance at the annual party conference ... Ms Badenoch is the frontrunner with odds of 7/2, followed by Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, at 5/1, odds published by the bookmakers Coral show. Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, takes third place with odds of 9/1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/03/kemi-badenoch-next-conservative-leader-rishi-sunak/ (£££)
I see the Daily Mail claque, led by Quentin Letts, is massively bigging up the hugely unpopular Sue Ellen this morning... which gave me a word cloud of "scraping the bottom of the barrel", "dead end", "useless loser", "perma-defeat" and "collapse" amongst others.
Fun times.
*popcorn*
Sue Ellen is far too sinister to make fun of. She is a clear and present threat. She has no understanding of social sensitivities.
Despite being venal and self-serving even Johnson, having made the error once, knew there was a line one shouldn't cross before unleashing a Pandora's box of uncontrollable chaos.
I can't think of any UK politician quite so scary as Braverman, she has no limits.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Granted, on your terms they haven't had a fair run at a positive prospectus, but how come they have managed at the same time to unleash so much fire and brimstone on the economy, social cohesion, our ability to trade internationally and our standing as a global player?
If we are looking back at the Coalition years as the best of the last 13, then the obvious choice at the next election is to vote LibDem..
Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.
I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus". Not likely to go down well.
Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
Voters in redwall Greater Manchester seats do NOT live in Manchester city itself and rarely go on the train to London.
They would much rather have new buses and potholes repaired than HS2
*bangs head against brick wall*
Really? "£6bn of rail investment in GM? Or repair some potholes?" "We're just simple people here, the pothole option seems much more up our street."
What voters in redwall Greater Manchester want is what they were promised - i.e. levelling up - i.e. finally, some of the money that was always spent in London being spent in Greater Manchester. Because that brings about jobs and investment and growth. WHICH IS THE POINT OF HS2.
Now, a secret: more even than HS2, we'd like NPR. That does even more: more access to jobs, more relief of suburban routes, more connectivity, more investement. But the middle section of NPR is delivered by HS2: we can't do NPR until HS2 Phase 2b puts in place the Manchester Airport to Manchester section, plus the high speed stations at Manchesters Piccadilly and Airport.
(In fact, ALL of Phase 2b technically supports NPR, because there are two proposed NPR services an hour running Newcastle-Leeds-Manchester-Crewe-Birmingham. But weirdly no-one really talks about them.)
Voters in redwall seats hardly ever go to London. Why would they therefore want a faster rail ink from Manchester city centre to London they would hardly ever use which could be used for bus routes they would use or repairing potholes in their area?
Better bus routes is more levelling up for them and the working class Leave voters and pensioners than posh Remain voting commuters and students getting a faster commute to and from London.
Even adding NPR routes to Leeds and Bradford wouldn't benefit them much either compared to better bus routes and local roads
Why would they want a faster rail link from Manchester to London? Well, as I keep saying, because it would bring investment and jobs to Greater Manchester far in excess of what improvements to bus services would bring.
Levelling up is not sitting and wondering why all the investment continues to go to the south east.
If Turin and Lyon can be linked via a 57km tunnel, why can't we also have a Pennine Base Tunnel? A star shaped layout between Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds.
Just sink the whole sodding thing below ground and avoid the planning nightmares.
Note that it seems to be costing about 1/4 of HS2...
65 miles of HS2 tunnel for the south. You'd want at least the same for the north.
If Levelling Up is a thing - and you accept that connectivity is greater in the south east than in the north - you need to be spending more on connectivity in the north than in the south (assuming your investments are sensible - but really, so onerous is the process of getting investment in transport that generally, they are). However, since Levelling Up was announced as a policy, the reverse has been true. The gap is therefore widening.
Tis is why HS2 was such a stupid project when it came to levelling up. What we wnat is inversment 'in' the North not investment 'to' the North. There are so many ways in which the transport and communications systems could be transformed north of the Trent but which have been sacrificed on the altar of the HS2 white elephant.
If SUnak had had any sense (he doesn't of course) he would have done some proper planning for this over the last year or so and come to this point able to say HS2 from Birmingham north - both to Manchester and Leeds - was going to cost (for example) £100 billion. So to prove our commitment to the North here are a seies of projects IN the north which we will commit to and which will cost, in total, £100 billion.
You could do a hell of a lot for transport and communications within the north of England with £100 billion.
It now costs the government around 5% pa to borrow for pretty much any length of time. And our government's net financing needs are at record highs in monetary terms. And the fiscal situation is very similar in the US - made worse by the prospect of lengthy government shut downs.
All this talk of tax cuts is pure fantasy. Especially if it is funded by cutting capital investment that should have a positive return on investment long-term.
A nice anniversary present from last year's Truss chaos.
"The building of a modern high-speed railway that will shorten the journey from Manchester to London to just over an hour — and free up the full-to-bursting West Coast Main Line to carry more regular and reliable local and freight services — seems to be a matter of when rather than if. Sure, we can kick it down the track for a few years, but the cost of doing so will only rise. And, in the meantime, local train services will continue to share tracks with faster intercity rail, and hordes of travellers will have to put up with the dismal services of Avanti West Coast, a company that sometimes charges us more to visit London than it would cost to fly to Italy, and then makes us stand up for two hours to drive home the humiliation."
"no seats available, standing for entire journey on crowded train Review of Avanti West Coast Reviewed 29 June 2023 stood up as no seat for the entire journey from london euston to stoke on trent- avanti did not open up discounted seats in first class to sort issues , people blocked in walk way, sitting on floor between toilets and next carriages, suitcases blocking walk ways , this cant be safe, everyone the train breaks or sharp bends i was jostled around as standing up with nothing to hold onto, absolutely disgraceful service. avanti should not over sell tickets and make people stand for entire journey."
On that last one his complaint (in part) is it was overcrowded and so Avanti should have cut their prices?
HS2 is being announced now, early this morning, so it clears the airwaves for other stuff when Sunak makes his speech later today.
So something is coming.
I find your faith rather touching. What is it about Sunaks media and Parliament management this week that convinces you so?
It's not faith, it's my objective analysis of the media announcements this morning; it also builds on evidence of what Hunt didn't say on Monday. It's to ensure HS2, which has been allowed to fester over several news cycles, doesn't crowd out anything else he has to say later on today.
Yes, it's possible the big reveal is a damp squib (and, whatever it is, I entirely expect it to be shot with bullets within seconds of being announced on here) and it's even possible there is nothing much at all other than some fringe policies, rhetoric and promises of better times ahead.
But, on balance, I think there will be a reveal. It will be interesting to see what it is and how it lands with the target audience (which isn't the usual suspects on here) because it'll be about rallying the base.
'The story will be familiar to many of you.... they met in the young conservatives in the 1970s.'
'Corporation tax an investor repellent 24%.'
She has a point on immigration though. I suspect it will cost the Tories a lot of votes. But corporation tax? Nah.
Corporation tax the world over is increasing - it may look high but meh.
Also it's wrong Corporation tax is at 25% - at least get the basics right....
Actually corporation tax the world over has been decreasing, quite markedly. Nowhere more so than the main OECD countries. Most had rates well into the 30s until a few years ago. Then they started inexorably dropping, capped off course by the US dropping from near 40% (including state tax) to the mid 20s.
The UK’s 25% is now squarely in the pack as a result. We were a low outlier before.
Although the source is the Daily Mail, there's been rumours of this story for a whole now. IMV it's getting too specific and from too many sources for *nothing* to have happened.
China's handling of the incident might make Putin's handling of the Kursk seem humane and statesmanlike...
The 'Times' angle that this was caused by a trap designed to snare US vessels is particularly interesting. Also being repeated by a lot of other media around the world.
Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.
I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus". Not likely to go down well.
Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
Voters in redwall Greater Manchester seats do NOT live in Manchester city itself and rarely go on the train to London.
They would much rather have new buses and potholes repaired than HS2
*bangs head against brick wall*
Really? "£6bn of rail investment in GM? Or repair some potholes?" "We're just simple people here, the pothole option seems much more up our street."
What voters in redwall Greater Manchester want is what they were promised - i.e. levelling up - i.e. finally, some of the money that was always spent in London being spent in Greater Manchester. Because that brings about jobs and investment and growth. WHICH IS THE POINT OF HS2.
Now, a secret: more even than HS2, we'd like NPR. That does even more: more access to jobs, more relief of suburban routes, more connectivity, more investement. But the middle section of NPR is delivered by HS2: we can't do NPR until HS2 Phase 2b puts in place the Manchester Airport to Manchester section, plus the high speed stations at Manchesters Piccadilly and Airport.
(In fact, ALL of Phase 2b technically supports NPR, because there are two proposed NPR services an hour running Newcastle-Leeds-Manchester-Crewe-Birmingham. But weirdly no-one really talks about them.)
Voters in redwall seats hardly ever go to London. Why would they therefore want a faster rail ink from Manchester city centre to London they would hardly ever use which could be used for bus routes they would use or repairing potholes in their area?
Better bus routes is more levelling up for them and the working class Leave voters and pensioners than posh Remain voting commuters and students getting a faster commute to and from London.
Even adding NPR routes to Leeds and Bradford wouldn't benefit them much either compared to better bus routes and local roads
I haven't commented on HS2 because I don't know enough about it, but isn't the argument that you don't have to go to London by train to benefit from it. It will free up lines and road capacity that they and freight will use.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Granted, on your terms they haven't had a fair run at a positive prospectus, but how come they have managed at the same time to unleash so much fire and brimstone on the economy, social cohesion, our ability to trade internationally and our standing as a global player?
If we are looking back at the Coalition years as the best of the last 13, then the obvious choice at the next election is to vote LibDem..
Obviously.....
A lot of previously mainstream Tories are certainly saying this, and I could see a chunk of defections to the Lib Dems as the wreck of the populist Tories begins to go below the waves.
Whatever the opinion polls are saying, we are seeing at local and national by elections a large slab of previously long term Conservative voters has already defected to the Lib Dems...For example, Surrey and the rest of the home counties, which is up in arms at the current state of things.
After this latest fiasco, I could see the "silent Tories" folding their tents and going en masse to Ed Davey. So can the far right press, which tries very hard to ignore the challenge, hoping that they won´t give "the oxygen of publicity" to an increasing threat.
Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.
I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus". Not likely to go down well.
Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
Voters in redwall Greater Manchester seats do NOT live in Manchester city itself and rarely go on the train to London.
They would much rather have new buses and potholes repaired than HS2
Looking at HYUFD's post again, I do wonder whether this is what went through some SPAD's mind. "Voters in Leigh and Bury North are simple people. They don't want to go to London. They certainly don't want change - investment in Greater Manchester would frighten them. If we cancel HS2 they will understand and love us. We should announce it when we go to Manchester for the conference just to maximise the feel-good we will get from it."
Point of order that Bury North is a swing seat, not ‘red wall’.
And also (I know I bang on about this) but just because a conservative seat is in the north of England doesn’t make it ‘red wall’. Places like Bramhall and Marple are very different to Bassetlaw and Mansfield. And if they boot the Tories there (which I think they will) they’ll go yellow, not red.
There are only a maybe dozen actual red wall seats, tops.
Blyth Valley Durham NW Bishop Auckland Sedgefield Hartlepool Redcar Workington Copeland Heywood Leigh Wakefield Don Valley Rother Valley Penistone Scunthorpe Grimsby Bolsover Derbyshire NE Bassetlaw Ashfield Mansfield Stoke N Stoke C Stoke S Newcastle UL West Brom W West Brom E Wrexham
All gained by the Conservatives in 2017 or 2019 but not won by Cameron or Thatcher.
Kemi Badenoch becomes bookies' favourite for next Conservative leader The Business Secretary emerged as a frontrunner to succeed Sunak after her performance at the annual party conference ... Ms Badenoch is the frontrunner with odds of 7/2, followed by Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, at 5/1, odds published by the bookmakers Coral show. Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, takes third place with odds of 9/1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/03/kemi-badenoch-next-conservative-leader-rishi-sunak/ (£££)
I see the Daily Mail claque, led by Quentin Letts, is massively bigging up the hugely unpopular Sue Ellen this morning... which gave me a word cloud of "scraping the bottom of the barrel", "dead end", "useless loser", "perma-defeat" and "collapse" amongst others.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Granted, on your terms they haven't had a fair run at a positive prospectus, but how come they have managed at the same time to unleash so much fire and brimstone on the economy, social cohesion, our ability to trade internationally and our standing as a global player?
Anyone who still supports the Tories must be either thick, racist or crooked. I can’t think of any other explanation.
Kemi Badenoch becomes bookies' favourite for next Conservative leader The Business Secretary emerged as a frontrunner to succeed Sunak after her performance at the annual party conference ... Ms Badenoch is the frontrunner with odds of 7/2, followed by Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, at 5/1, odds published by the bookmakers Coral show. Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, takes third place with odds of 9/1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/03/kemi-badenoch-next-conservative-leader-rishi-sunak/ (£££)
I see the Daily Mail claque, led by Quentin Letts, is massively bigging up the hugely unpopular Sue Ellen this morning... which gave me a word cloud of "scraping the bottom of the barrel", "dead end", "useless loser", "perma-defeat" and "collapse" amongst others.
Fun times.
*popcorn*
Wasn’t she in Dallas? Must be getting on a bit.
The Home Secretary really was named after the Dallas character. At birth she was registered as Sue Ellen.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Granted, on your terms they haven't had a fair run at a positive prospectus, but how come they have managed at the same time to unleash so much fire and brimstone on the economy, social cohesion, our ability to trade internationally and our standing as a global player?
Anyone who still supports the Tories must be either thick, racist or crooked. I can’t think of any other explanation.
The opposition should just hammer them on the fact they oversaw the HS2 fiasco . Why would anyone think they’re capable of being trusted now to deliver anything else .
And if the political system is broken . Who broke it ? How long can the Tories run away from 13 years in power ?
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Granted, on your terms they haven't had a fair run at a positive prospectus, but how come they have managed at the same time to unleash so much fire and brimstone on the economy, social cohesion, our ability to trade internationally and our standing as a global player?
Anyone who still supports the Tories must be either thick, racist or crooked. I can’t think of any other explanation.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Granted, on your terms they haven't had a fair run at a positive prospectus, but how come they have managed at the same time to unleash so much fire and brimstone on the economy, social cohesion, our ability to trade internationally and our standing as a global player?
Anyone who still supports the Tories must be either thick, racist or crooked. I can’t think of any other explanation.
I think that unfair on my mother. I think she is none of those things, but I really cannot understand why she remains a loyal Tory member.
The opposition should just hammer them on the fact they oversaw the HS2 fiasco . Why would anyone think they’re capable of being trusted now to deliver anything else .
And if the political system is broken . Who broke it ? How long can the Tories run away from 13 years in power ?
Quite apart from the economic consequences of once again not investing in infrastructure the politics of this is almost beyond belief. How much would it have cost to persevere with this until after the election?
Sunak wants to be seen as someone who can take the tough decisions. But they still need to be the right ones.
HS2 is being announced now, early this morning, so it clears the airwaves for other stuff when Sunak makes his speech later today.
So something is coming.
Free chess set for every house?
We've already had a preview.
...We’ve already had a sneak preview of some of the things Rishi Sunak will say in his speech later, and in it he’ll reflect on his first year as prime minister.
He will say that “politics doesn’t work the way it should”, before setting out how he wants to change the way our political system works and end the 30-year political status quo.
“We’ve had 30 years of a political system which incentivises the easy decision, not the right one” he will tell the Conservative Party Conference.
“Our political system is too focused on short term advantage, not long-term success. Our mission is to fundamentally change our country.”..
He sounds like he would like to postpone the GE for 10 years. He couldn’t, could he?
Shapps blaming covid for today's harrying of the North.
Pathetic.
Even if you buy the argument that covid has changed transport usage it is nuts to assume that such changes are forever. HS2 should last 100 years. They are screwing up transport for a century for something that may entirely revert to long-term trends within say 5 years.
It's like deciding you don't need to fix the hole in the roof because right now the weather is currently sunny and dry.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Granted, on your terms they haven't had a fair run at a positive prospectus, but how come they have managed at the same time to unleash so much fire and brimstone on the economy, social cohesion, our ability to trade internationally and our standing as a global player?
Anyone who still supports the Tories must be either thick, racist or crooked. I can’t think of any other explanation.
I think that unfair on my mother. I think she is none of those things, but I really cannot understand why she remains a loyal Tory member.
Frightened, perhaps. Especially after several decades of media attacks on Labour, Tony Benn, Michael Foot, etc. The 1970s inflation did a lot of damage.
The opposition should just hammer them on the fact they oversaw the HS2 fiasco . Why would anyone think they’re capable of being trusted now to deliver anything else .
And if the political system is broken . Who broke it ? How long can the Tories run away from 13 years in power ?
Blaming the greed and incompetence of HS2 implementation on the government is likely to have agreement from both the pro HS2 and anti HS2 sides.
HS2 is being announced now, early this morning, so it clears the airwaves for other stuff when Sunak makes his speech later today.
So something is coming.
Free chess set for every house?
We've already had a preview.
...We’ve already had a sneak preview of some of the things Rishi Sunak will say in his speech later, and in it he’ll reflect on his first year as prime minister.
He will say that “politics doesn’t work the way it should”, before setting out how he wants to change the way our political system works and end the 30-year political status quo.
“We’ve had 30 years of a political system which incentivises the easy decision, not the right one” he will tell the Conservative Party Conference.
“Our political system is too focused on short term advantage, not long-term success. Our mission is to fundamentally change our country.”..
Sorry HS2 and NPR built in full is the right long term decision - the easy political decision to save a few quid now is to cancel HS2 because if you don't understand the difference between day to day expenditure and one off investment spending it looks like it provides a few pounds to be spent elsewhere.
The opposition should just hammer them on the fact they oversaw the HS2 fiasco . Why would anyone think they’re capable of being trusted now to deliver anything else .
And if the political system is broken . Who broke it ? How long can the Tories run away from 13 years in power ?
Quite apart from the economic consequences of once again not investing in infrastructure the politics of this is almost beyond belief. How much would it have cost to persevere with this until after the election?
Sunak wants to be seen as someone who can take the tough decisions. But they still need to be the right ones.
Sunak should have stuck to his HS2 spin . To start going on about a broken political system when the Tories have been in office for 13 years looks laughable. These infrastructure projects once completed are there for generations. I’m now more interested in what Labour will say about HS2 . It’s a dilemma for them .
Shapps blaming covid for today's harrying of the North.
Pathetic.
He's right though.
WFH has changed all the calculations.
As has TEAMS - certainly in my experience the number of people coming to my workplace for meetings has fallen by over half since covid.
It has, but not by nearly as much as is commonly thought. And demand on the WCML had grown by about 300% in the last 25 years. Covid brought it down, briefly, but it is already back up above capacity. Demand is growing again. And transport economics, values of time, etc but the essential point about creating new capacity and stimulating economic growth remains.
Rishi Sunak will pledge tomorrow to “fundamentally change” Britain as he unveils plans to scale back HS2, overhaul A-levels and improve people’s health.
The prime minister will say in his keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference that voters are “exhausted” with politics and that they believe the Westminster system of government is “broken”.
He will attempt to position himself as the candidate of change who is willing to work in the country’s long-term interests to deliver a “brighter future”.
As with everything the Tories say, the answer is: well, who’s been in power for the last 13 years?
2010-5: Lib Dem/Tory coalition 2015-9: government without a working majority, Brexit 2019-22: COVID
They have been in office but not really in power for most of it - very different from say the 13 years of Blair/Brown with large parliamentary majorities and, until 2008, much more favourable economic circumstances.
Brexit isn't something that happened to the Tories. It was their choice, what they chose to spend their political capital on. The 2017 election was, of course, also their choice.
I think the only thing we can conclude from your thesis is that you need the LibDems for strong and stable government!
Just heard the news about McCarthy, (since I was in a cinema watching The Exorcist).
Was there any warning that this might happen?
Some of us predicted this pretty much exactly as it played out, that McCarthy would pass a continuation bill with Democrat support to avoid the shutdown, and then get voted out of office by his own party.
Massive win for Gaetz and friends, who want to debate budget bills by individual department and project, rather than a massive unreadable up-or-down continuation bill, with the threat of shutting down the whole federal government if it’s voted down.
The House can now do very little else, until they’ve selected a new speaker.
I think it is near certain that the US Federal Government will shut down in six weeks time. And it is also likely that it will stay shut for some time. Whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans that get the blame this could be a major factor in determining the 2024 Presidential election.
I can confidently predict Democrats will blame the Republicans and Republicans will blame the Democrats.
The economy will determine the 2024 election, and the shut down is bad for the economy, particularly if lengthy.
There is only one party which wants a shutdown. The Democrats would get rid of the absurd 'debt limit', if they could. The GOP is effectively voting not to fund spending commitments Congress has already voted for.
Sure, if you want to know which party is to blame its clearly the Republicans, for too many reasons to list.
If you want to know, electorally, which party gets the blame, its very likely a push as each side blames each other and the stalemate continues.
The evolution in the situation is that the Republicans are now blaming other Republicans!
Kemi Badenoch becomes bookies' favourite for next Conservative leader The Business Secretary emerged as a frontrunner to succeed Sunak after her performance at the annual party conference ... Ms Badenoch is the frontrunner with odds of 7/2, followed by Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, at 5/1, odds published by the bookmakers Coral show. Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, takes third place with odds of 9/1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/03/kemi-badenoch-next-conservative-leader-rishi-sunak/ (£££)
I see the Daily Mail claque, led by Quentin Letts, is massively bigging up the hugely unpopular Sue Ellen this morning... which gave me a word cloud of "scraping the bottom of the barrel", "dead end", "useless loser", "perma-defeat" and "collapse" amongst others.
Fun times.
*popcorn*
Wasn’t she in Dallas? Must be getting on a bit.
The Home Secretary really was named after the Dallas character. At birth she was registered as Sue Ellen.
Other famous people named after TV characters include Queen Elizabeth, the Queen Mother.
Despite Sunak’s nice guy face, it’s deeply cynical.
He’s replaced one big thing which is years away and many people don’t like, with lots of smaller things designed to be popular all over the place but are nevertheless also years away and won’t even be started come election day. And the Tories aren’t likely to be around afterwards to implement any of it.
Comments
If you want to know, electorally, which party gets the blame, its very likely a push as each side blames each other and the stalemate continues.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2023/10/03/tory-vote-lose-election-sunak-conservative-party-conference/
I wasn’t expecting this in Manchester, but I won’t let HS2 go without a fight.
The offer to the PM is there - work with me and the private sector, grip the costs, and build Britain’s future.
https://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/1708882135715664345
A party which drives him out, while welcoming Farage, has no future as a mainstream political entity.
Boris could get away with it, because he was Boris. Sunak is supposed to be Mr Spreadsheet and Details, he just looks like a lying fool when he tries this shit.
Probably need to wait for later next week to get polls that fully reflect the PR impact of this conference. Though it’ll all be complicated by the by-elections of course.
Unless Labour really cock up next week in a Liverpool, which seems unlikely - I expect it to be slick (I’ll be there on Monday doing a panel so will report back) - I’d expect a little conference bounce for them. Possibly at the expense of the Lib Dems and Greens.
So something is coming.
Pathetic.
Enormously popular across the spectrum as someone who gets stuff done.
I hope he tells them to stuff it and runs as indie.
The fickle voter will obviously buy this and not see it as a hopeless, cynical last throw of the dice from a desperate Prime Minister.
Fun times.
*popcorn*
This lot couldn't put together my Brio wooden toy railway c. 1965, let alone Pete Waterman's model railway layout.
...We’ve already had a sneak preview of some of the things Rishi Sunak will say in his speech later, and in it he’ll reflect on his first year as prime minister.
He will say that “politics doesn’t work the way it should”, before setting out how he wants to change the way our political system works and end the 30-year political status quo.
“We’ve had 30 years of a political system which incentivises the easy decision, not the right one” he will tell the Conservative Party Conference.
“Our political system is too focused on short term advantage, not long-term success. Our mission is to fundamentally change our country.”..
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention
📈19pt Labour lead
🌹Lab 46 (+2)
🌳Con 27 (-3)
🔶LD 11 (=)
➡️Reform 5 (=)
🌍Green 4 (=)
🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
⬜️Other 4 (=)
2,129 UK adults, 29 Sept - 1 Oct
(chg 22-24 Sept)
https://x.com/savanta_uk/status/1709463365796401213?s=46
And isn't it really bad form to use a one off saving to fund a tax cut that is supposedly recurring?
I mean, there could be a rabbit deliberately left in the hat, but the alternative hypothesis is that Sunak's comms strategy is just hopeless.
And given the quality of his other big ideas, anything left is statistically likely to be awful as well.
There are only a maybe dozen actual red wall seats, tops.
'The story will be familiar to many of you.... they met in the young conservatives in the 1970s.'
'Corporation tax an investor repellent 24%.'
She has a point on immigration though. I suspect it will cost the Tories a lot of votes. But corporation tax? Nah.
Despite being venal and self-serving even Johnson, having made the error once, knew there was a line one shouldn't cross before unleashing a Pandora's box of uncontrollable chaos.
I can't think of any UK politician quite so scary as Braverman, she has no limits.
Also it's wrong Corporation tax is at 25% - at least get the basics right....
If SUnak had had any sense (he doesn't of course) he would have done some proper planning for this over the last year or so and come to this point able to say HS2 from Birmingham north - both to Manchester and Leeds - was going to cost (for example) £100 billion. So to prove our commitment to the North here are a seies of projects IN the north which we will commit to and which will cost, in total, £100 billion.
You could do a hell of a lot for transport and communications within the north of England with £100 billion.
It now costs the government around 5% pa to borrow for pretty much any length of time. And our government's net financing needs are at record highs in monetary terms. And the fiscal situation is very similar in the US - made worse by the prospect of lengthy government shut downs.
All this talk of tax cuts is pure fantasy. Especially if it is funded by cutting capital investment that should have a positive return on investment long-term.
A nice anniversary present from last year's Truss chaos.
Yes, it's possible the big reveal is a damp squib (and, whatever it is, I entirely expect it to be shot with bullets within seconds of being announced on here) and it's even possible there is nothing much at all other than some fringe policies, rhetoric and promises of better times ahead.
But, on balance, I think there will be a reveal. It will be interesting to see what it is and how it lands with the target audience (which isn't the usual suspects on here) because it'll be about rallying the base.
The UK’s 25% is now squarely in the pack as a result. We were a low outlier before.
Whatever the opinion polls are saying, we are seeing at local and national by elections a large slab of previously long term Conservative voters has already defected to the Lib Dems...For example, Surrey and the rest of the home counties, which is up in arms at the current state of things.
After this latest fiasco, I could see the "silent Tories" folding their tents and going en masse to Ed Davey.
So can the far right press, which tries very hard to ignore the challenge, hoping that they won´t give "the oxygen of publicity" to an increasing threat.
Durham NW
Bishop Auckland
Sedgefield
Hartlepool
Redcar
Workington
Copeland
Heywood
Leigh
Wakefield
Don Valley
Rother Valley
Penistone
Scunthorpe
Grimsby
Bolsover
Derbyshire NE
Bassetlaw
Ashfield
Mansfield
Stoke N
Stoke C
Stoke S
Newcastle UL
West Brom W
West Brom E
Wrexham
All gained by the Conservatives in 2017 or 2019 but not won by Cameron or Thatcher.
The opposition should just hammer them on the fact they oversaw the HS2 fiasco . Why would anyone think they’re capable of being trusted now to deliver anything else .
And if the political system is broken . Who broke it ? How long can the Tories run away from 13 years in power ?
A growing economy. Damn. As you were.
I think Behr's my favourite columnist, probably because I agree with pretty much everything he writes.
WFH has changed all the calculations.
As has TEAMS - certainly in my experience the number of people coming to my workplace for meetings has fallen by over half since covid.
Sunak wants to be seen as someone who can take the tough decisions. But they still need to be the right ones.
The discussions area either about consuming wealth or taking wealth from someone else.
It's like deciding you don't need to fix the hole in the roof because right now the weather is currently sunny and dry.
You know how to make yourself unpopular in Bury
And demand on the WCML had grown by about 300% in the last 25 years. Covid brought it down, briefly, but it is already back up above capacity. Demand is growing again.
And transport economics, values of time, etc but the essential point about creating new capacity and stimulating economic growth remains.
Have you lent him one ?
I think the only thing we can conclude from your thesis is that you need the LibDems for strong and stable government!
He’s replaced one big thing which is years away and many people don’t like, with lots of smaller things designed to be popular all over the place but are nevertheless also years away and won’t even be started come election day. And the Tories aren’t likely to be around afterwards to implement any of it.