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YouGov – voters want an early election – politicalbetting.com

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  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    CatMan said:

    Is there the remotest of remote chance that this is one big PR scam and tomorrow Rishi is going to say something like "There are liberal elite doubters who have been badmouthing our rail industry. Well I can tell you now that we will prove them wrong and that HS2 will be built in full!!!"?

    Nah, he'll spin taking it to Euston as a positive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    IanB2 said:

    CatMan said:

    Is there the remotest of remote chance that this is one big PR scam and tomorrow Rishi is going to say something like "There are liberal elite doubters who have been badmouthing our rail industry. Well I can tell you now that we will prove them wrong and that HS2 will be built in full!"?

    So the whole thing is to get a blaze of publicity for something already announced and underway, hence good news headlines without having to commit any extra spending? Genius.
    "Those evil meat taxers planned to halt it, but I say, not on my watch"...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited October 2023
    Wolverhampton station tram stop, opened on the 17th September at the end of a half-mile extension, along with Pipers Row stop adjacent to the bus station, as seen on Sunday. Pouring heavily with rain at this time! Anyway, I'm now up to date with GB light rail extensions :)





  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    CatMan said:

    Is there the remotest of remote chance that this is one big PR scam and tomorrow Rishi is going to say something like "There are liberal elite doubters who have been badmouthing our rail industry. Well I can tell you now that we will prove them wrong and that HS2 will be built in full!!!"?

    Rishi stopped the cancellation of HS2!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    CatMan said:

    Is there the remotest of remote chance that this is one big PR scam and tomorrow Rishi is going to say something like "There are liberal elite doubters who have been badmouthing our rail industry. Well I can tell you now that we will prove them wrong and that HS2 will be built in full!!!"?

    Not really, because what would be the advantage politically in persistently dodging the question for a week and more, creating the doubt, then trying to win plaudits for doing nothing new and just confirming you are doing what you'd said you'd do?

    I don't even really care about HS2, and it seems like another project with terrible planning and ballooning costs, but it defies even political sense to make yourself look indecisive and weak, then gaslight people into blaming the media because you refused to answer questions about it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    "They just think they can treat us differently. They have spent billions tunnelling under south east to keep tory mps happy but can't even meet northern representatives like me."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    The new NPR rail needs the HS2 bits.

    How does he not understand this?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt ...

    Not by anyone sane.

  • Would love to see some Greater Manchester seat polling after this week.

    The line for over/under Tory seats should probably be 1.5
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    CatMan said:

    Is there the remotest of remote chance that this is one big PR scam and tomorrow Rishi is going to say something like "There are liberal elite doubters who have been badmouthing our rail industry. Well I can tell you now that we will prove them wrong and that HS2 will be built in full!!!"?

    If he does that, and does some tiny bit of money saving like halving the budget for the HS2 Christmas Party, he will be slaughtered.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586

    Burnham incadescent.

    And who can blame him.

    Crossparty agreement for more than a decade up in flames in space of a week thanks to one man and his ego and bollocks spreadsheets.

    We await Starmer confiming his end of that cross-party consensus.

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/657539020533145600
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    The new NPR rail needs the HS2 bits.

    How does he not understand this?
    He doesn’t care because it will be spun by a compliant media as a great boost for the north and enough low information voters will believe it sadly .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Nigelb said:

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt ...

    Not by anyone sane.

    Why chop 5 or so words from the end of that sentence?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    edited October 2023
    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Michelle Donelan drowning on Newsnight . The BBC quite brave in calling out the Tory lies . Shame it’s taken so long but it’s a start .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Andrew Adonis
    @Andrew_Adonis
    HS2 going to Euston means it will ultimately go to Manchester too, since all London to Mchester, Glasgow & Liverpool trains will now use HS2 & face chronic bottleneck beyond Bham

    So this is in reality a hugely expensive & damaging delay to fund election tax cuts. A disgrace
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    No, it was done now because a long-lense photograph caught a policy paper in No. 10 that revealed it was going to happen.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    The Washington Post said today that the Democrat House leadership should keep McCarthy in office by abstaining from the vote. Looks like instead they have thrown their lot in with Matt Gaetz and his loons. I'm sure they will feel pleased with themselves. Not sure how it will look to many in the US though.

    I agree: I think they should have had a couple of tactical abstentions to allow McCarthy to stay in post.
  • Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
  • From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    31m
    Stick me on repeat, I know how annoying I am, but imagine if decisions were made by people who actually did those journeys
  • nico679 said:

    Michelle Donelan drowning on Newsnight . The BBC quite brave in calling out the Tory lies . Shame it’s taken so long but it’s a start .

    She’d not really registered with me till know, but fck me, the Tory party has a production line of these numpties.
  • Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    Excellent idea that the London based political elite would be horrified even to consider
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt ...

    Not by anyone sane.

    Why chop 5 or so words from the end of that sentence?
    Now you know how HS2 feels.
    :lol:
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    Starmer has the opportunity do many things. He will however be paralysed by the controversial choice between still or fizzy water.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
    HS2, by taking trains off the WCML, would free up more paths for, for example, trains from London to North Wales.
    But if you're still using the WCML north of Birmingham, that can't happen.

    I can't say this often enough: HS2 is not about speed, it is about capacity on the rest of the network.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Just heard the news about McCarthy, (since I was in a cinema watching The Exorcist).

    Was there any warning that this might happen?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited October 2023
    Farooq said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    McCarthy about to become the first House speaker in American history to be ejected from the job.

    Edit: And it's happened. 216 to 210.

    Not even that close.
    Eight Republicans voted with 208 Democrats for motion to vacate Speaker's office. That's why he lost.

    Among the absent were Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Mary Peltola.

    Why? Pelosi has accompanied the remains of the late Sen. Diane Feinstein back to California for funeral. And Peltola's husband was killed a few days ago, when the small plane he was piloting crashed in Alaska.
    The Washington Post said today that the Democrat House leadership should keep McCarthy in office by abstaining from the vote. Looks like instead they have thrown their lot in with Matt Gaetz and his loons. I'm sure they will feel pleased with themselves. Not sure how it will look to many in the US though.

    I agree: I think they should have had a couple of tactical abstentions to allow McCarthy to stay in post.
    Why? He pretended that the loser of the 2020 election won. Fuck him.
    So do most Republicans in and out of the House. Whoever replaces him almost certainly will do the same - it isn't the crazy wing bringing him down, they're mostly crazy, Gaetz is just noisier and even more focused on promoting himself.

    What I don't get on a personal level is what McCarthy really got out of the deal he cut to become Speaker in the first place, since it sure as shit didn't buy him their co-operation.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Would love to see some Greater Manchester seat polling after this week.

    The line for over/under Tory seats should probably be 1.5
    I'd struggle to see where they'd get 1 in the current climate. They won't win Altrincham and Sale West.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Cookie said:

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
    HS2, by taking trains off the WCML, would free up more paths for, for example, trains from London to North Wales.
    But if you're still using the WCML north of Birmingham, that can't happen.

    I can't say this often enough: HS2 is not about speed, it is about capacity on the rest of the network.
    But it IS about speed, because the specification of it, built (apparently) for bullet trains going at 300 miles per hour, as well as the new route to incorporate high speed, is why it's rinsing the country and (presumably) starving the rest of the rail network of infrastructure investment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited October 2023

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
  • Cookie said:

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
    HS2, by taking trains off the WCML, would free up more paths for, for example, trains from London to North Wales.
    But if you're still using the WCML north of Birmingham, that can't happen.

    I can't say this often enough: HS2 is not about speed, it is about capacity on the rest of the network.
    I understand that but that is not the problem

    When I was in business I went direct to London by rail many times, but now it is change at Chester or Crewe with the odd direct train

    The same trains are running to and from Crewe
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783
    edited October 2023
    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    Let me introduce you to "Trickle Down Economics"...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    York would be an ideal government capital if there was a move
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Cookie said:

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
    HS2, by taking trains off the WCML, would free up more paths for, for example, trains from London to North Wales.
    But if you're still using the WCML north of Birmingham, that can't happen.

    I can't say this often enough: HS2 is not about speed, it is about capacity on the rest of the network.
    I think it's more easily explained using the inverse - HS rail to Inverness would reduce travel times, but add little to capacity as there are few commuter towns north of Perth.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    Cookie said:

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
    HS2, by taking trains off the WCML, would free up more paths for, for example, trains from London to North Wales.
    But if you're still using the WCML north of Birmingham, that can't happen.

    I can't say this often enough: HS2 is not about speed, it is about capacity on the rest of the network.
    Not any more it isn't.
  • Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
    HS2, by taking trains off the WCML, would free up more paths for, for example, trains from London to North Wales.
    But if you're still using the WCML north of Birmingham, that can't happen.

    I can't say this often enough: HS2 is not about speed, it is about capacity on the rest of the network.
    I think it's more easily explained using the inverse - HS rail to Inverness would reduce travel times, but add little to capacity as there are few commuter towns north of Perth.
    It would be interesting to construct a high speed rail line from Perth to Inverness
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    edited October 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).

    I will, if you want, offer you five pound Sterling at evens that the Conservative Party will win no seats in Greater Manchester next election (barring some unexpected reversal tomorrow and a revelation that this was all a ruse and they'll commit to it after all). Charity bet if you like.

    You know me, HYUFD. I'm not one to ring the anti-Tory bell willy-nilly. But I also know Greater Manchester. This will go down very very badly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).
    This. 100x this.

    Sunak is not over the details. He has spent a couple of late nights crunching a few overall numbers and decided he knows the answer.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    I think HS2 will eventually be built from B'ham to Manchester. It's just a question of when.
  • Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).
    As a matter of interest if the line to Manchester went ahead when would the high speed trains actually be running on it ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Cookie said:

    Would love to see some Greater Manchester seat polling after this week.

    The line for over/under Tory seats should probably be 1.5
    I'd struggle to see where they'd get 1 in the current climate. They won't win Altrincham and Sale West.
    I thought that was the one they might actually hold of the eight. But I believe it is your patch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).

    I will, if you want, off you five pound Sterling at evens that the Conservative Party will win no seats in Greater Manchester next election (barring some unexpected reversal tomorrow and a revelation that this was all a ruse and they'll commit to it after all). Charity bet if you like.

    You know me, HYUFD. I'm not one to ring the anti-Tory bell willy-nilly. But I also know Greater Manchester. This will go down very very badly.
    More voters in the redwall, especially older Tory voters, will use the bus than the train and will welcome better bus routes.

    If they lose these seats it won't have anything to do with HS2, they were going to lose them anyway
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Cookie said:

    Would love to see some Greater Manchester seat polling after this week.

    The line for over/under Tory seats should probably be 1.5
    I'd struggle to see where they'd get 1 in the current climate. They won't win Altrincham and Sale West.
    Bolton West with a bit of swing back - Bolton has the most Uxbridgy GM seats.

    The hope of holding Cheadle or Hazel Grove if LD and Lab split the vote.

    But out of their 8 nominal defences they don't look near to being favourites anywhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
    The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
    This story that the chaos was caused by that picture is bollx.

    Straight after it came out they could have said 'yeh, we are doing another review, look at the costs etc, we will get back to people in a couple of months'

    End of.

    The speculation has been fed by Sunak's team for a purpose only known to them.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I think HS2 will eventually be built from B'ham to Manchester. It's just a question of when.

    I expect Sunak will invest heavily in east-west rail links plus other infrastructure and at some later date when and if our economy has recovered then it may well be reviewed

    However, this is a moment for Starmer to decide if he will commit to it and how to pay for it

    After tomorrow the spotlight shifts onto Starmer and their conference
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    edited October 2023
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).
    If they do invest in bus services/trams instead, I would bet you that they don't attain critical mass and the services are withdrawn after 5 years.

    Public transport needs to be every 10 minutes, available across the whole urban area, tap tap cap, and with as few changes as possible, if any.

    That means a large initial investment and comprehensive network implemented by an arms length local government owned company, not the piecemeal private approach we see too often.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).

    I will, if you want, offer you five pound Sterling at evens that the Conservative Party will win no seats in Greater Manchester next election (barring some unexpected reversal tomorrow and a revelation that this was all a ruse and they'll commit to it after all). Charity bet if you like.

    You know me, HYUFD. I'm not one to ring the anti-Tory bell willy-nilly. But I also know Greater Manchester. This will go down very very badly.
    I'm confused. You haven't mentioned what the benefits to London are?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    York would be an ideal government capital if there was a move
    It would be a pretty odd choice. It's a smallish city, less than 200,000 people. How many MPs, civil servants, and associated support people would need to arrive? There are three thousand people who work in and supporting parliament alone. You're probably talking about tens of thousands of extra homes and offices needed. York would be swamped. Do you ever think anything through?
    Canberra's population is not that much bigger than Yorks and it is capital of Australia
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Andy_JS said:

    I think HS2 will eventually be built from B'ham to Manchester. It's just a question of when.

    Yep.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
    The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
    It's the suburbs that are important. The red wall.

    People aren't stupid - they can see their public transport network failing to provide local services, clogged up by inter-city trains.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783
    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).
    If they do invest in bus services/trams instead, I would bet you that they don't attain critical mass and the services are withdrawn after 5 years.

    Public transport needs to be every 10 minutes, available across the whole urban area, tap tap cap, and with as few changes as possible, if any.

    That means a large initial investment and comprehensive implemented by an arms length local government owned company, not the piecemeal private approach we see too often.
    They will be underfunded for five years. Then further underfunded for another 10. Then privatised with a huge taxpayer bung. Then subsidised for 5 years to pay shareholders dividends.

    *Then* withdrawn.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    I won't shed any tears if this government suffers a major defeat at the next election because of the total mess they've made of high speed rail. Trying to "save money" at every juncture isn't the way to do it. You either do it properly or don't do it at all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Andy_JS said:

    I think HS2 will eventually be built from B'ham to Manchester. It's just a question of when.

    I expect Sunak will invest heavily in east-west rail links plus other infrastructure and at some later date when and if our economy has recovered then it may well be reviewed

    However, this is a moment for Starmer to decide if he will commit to it and how to pay for it

    After tomorrow the spotlight shifts onto Starmer and their conference
    Thank God.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    York would be an ideal government capital if there was a move
    It would be a pretty odd choice. It's a smallish city, less than 200,000 people. How many MPs, civil servants, and associated support people would need to arrive? There are three thousand people who work in and supporting parliament alone. You're probably talking about tens of thousands of extra homes and offices needed. York would be swamped. Do you ever think anything through?
    Canberra's population is not that much bigger than Yorks and it is capital of Australia
    Have you been to York recently? In the summer it's rammed with tourists. It's a nice city but not really up to hosting parliament. Leeds would be a better choice.

    Or put it on a brownfield site near the NEC. Good connections south (shame about the rail to the north, mind).
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Andy_JS said:

    I think HS2 will eventually be built from B'ham to Manchester. It's just a question of when.

    Yep.
    Probably but it's a real shame that it will take even longer to deliver and cost more. Still at least Sunak will be able to promise to cut inheritance tax, and keep the triple lock, or some other nonproductive use of the money "saved".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
    The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
    Do you mean Northfield?? LOL. That is so gone at the next GE.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    From a PR perspective, I'm trying to think if there's any way they could have handled the HS2 thing better. They couldn't really have announced the policy at the beginning, because the media would have spent the whole conference picking the policy apart.

    I'd maybe have considered giving to Hunt to break the bad news in his speech, as he's less popular than the plague anyway. Leave him to swing the axe on HS2, then Rishi hands out the consolation sweeties in his speech.

    And rather than being a disloyal grab for leadership (which is probably was), Suella being quite aggressive in her speech can be considered quite an heroic attempt to move the news agenda away from HS2 momentarily for Sunak.

    Announce it all at the autumn statement.

    It was only done now because Sunak has been told by the teenage scribblers he employs as SPADs that it is a good idea to do all this in Manchester because...
    The reason for this chaos apparently was revelation in a document carried into Downing Street and seen by the media

    Hence is was leaked otherwise it would no doubt have been in the autumn statement

    We struggle to get direct trains to London here in North Wales and that would be more important to be fair
    This story that the chaos was caused by that picture is bollx.

    Straight after it came out they could have said 'yeh, we are doing another review, look at the costs etc, we will get back to people in a couple of months'

    End of.

    The speculation has been fed by Sunak's team for a purpose only known to them.
    They want to use the money 'saved' to fund tax cuts in the Autumn statement, would be my guess.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).
    This. 100x this.

    Sunak is not over the details. He has spent a couple of late nights crunching a few overall numbers and decided he knows the answer.

    He's seen the sixth tab in Excel marked 'Dashboard'. I always have that feeling when I listen to him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Just watched Partygate on C4.

    Worth a watch 'lest we forget'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Andy_JS said:

    I won't shed any tears if this government suffers a major defeat at the next election because of the total mess they've made of high speed rail. Trying to "save money" at every juncture isn't the way to do it. You either do it properly or don't do it at all.

    Or they could try managing it properly.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    They know a kick in the teeth when they see one.
    They can spot when a government had pledged £96bn for rail in the North and Midlands - which, divvied up, works out at about £6bn for Greater Manchester - and are now getting palmed off with bus routes. Which are welcome, but amount to rather less than £6bn.

    And I CANNOT SAY THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: IT IS NOT ABOUT SPEED. What GM would have got out of it is relief on the local rail network, massive investment in Manchester (and Wigan), and jobs, and growth.
    Better rail stations are no good if you an't actually fit the paths to them. Golborne Station, for example, was on the cards - but needed the Golborne Link (confusingly, Golborne Station would be on the WCML, not the Golborne Link - but paths serving the station were dependent on high speed trains using the Golborne Link instead).

    I will, if you want, off you five pound Sterling at evens that the Conservative Party will win no seats in Greater Manchester next election (barring some unexpected reversal tomorrow and a revelation that this was all a ruse and they'll commit to it after all). Charity bet if you like.

    You know me, HYUFD. I'm not one to ring the anti-Tory bell willy-nilly. But I also know Greater Manchester. This will go down very very badly.
    More voters in the redwall, especially older Tory voters, will use the bus than the train and will welcome better bus routes.

    If they lose these seats it won't have anything to do with HS2, they were going to lose them anyway
    Yes, I grant you, voters like buses. But they also like investment coming to their region.

    From the 2013 Strategic Case for HS2:

    "There has been much debate about the scale of the potential economic benefits of HS2 and their distribution between north and south. With advice from an independent panel of experts, HS2 Ltd commissioned KPMG to consider the potential impacts of HS2 on the economy at a city and city region level. The results of the analysis suggest that HS2 could increase economic output by £15bn per year. Even with more cautious assumptions the annual benefit could be £8bn. In addition the analysis shows that, while all regions benefit, the city regions in the Midlands and the North do particularly well.
    ...additional commercial development brought forward as a result of HS2 in areas immediately surrounding HS2 stations could support up to 100,000 jobs. The Core Cities Group – representing eight of the largest city economies outside London – puts that figure at 400,000.
    ...HS2 could provide a boost to the Birmingham city region equivalent to between 2.1% and 4.2% of its GDP. For the Manchester city region the figure is 0.8%-1.7%, for the Leeds city region 1.6% and for Greater London 0.5%. "

    Even if you never go to London, HS2 would be transformational for Greater Manchester.

    And I can't see us getting £6bn to spend on buses in recompense.

    I'll offer an alternative bet if you like: the swing against the Conservative Party in Greater Manchester will exceed UNS. This takes 'would have lost anyway' out of the equation. My hypothesis is that voters in Greater Manchester will give the Tories more of a kicking than most. If you really want, we can strip the five Manchester seats out of the equation if you think them not red wall enough.
  • It seems the first trains would run Manchester to Euston in 2041 under the original plan

    Allowing for delays it would have been 20 years or more before the service ran
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    I'm not sure that preplanned government cities are a great idea: they tend to be soulless places, with little real industry.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Just watched Partygate on C4.

    Worth a watch 'lest we forget'.

    I stopped watching as it was making me too angry.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Would love to see some Greater Manchester seat polling after this week.

    The line for over/under Tory seats should probably be 1.5
    I'd struggle to see where they'd get 1 in the current climate. They won't win Altrincham and Sale West.
    Bolton West with a bit of swing back - Bolton has the most Uxbridgy GM seats.

    The hope of holding Cheadle or Hazel Grove if LD and Lab split the vote.

    But out of their 8 nominal defences they don't look near to being favourites anywhere.
    It's really, really, really easy to envisage the Tories being wiped out totally in their 22 Metro defences between the Dee and Don.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Andy_JS said:

    I won't shed any tears if this government suffers a major defeat at the next election because of the total mess they've made of high speed rail. Trying to "save money" at every juncture isn't the way to do it. You either do it properly or don't do it at all.

    Exactly. Put aside the rights and wrongs, and even the costs. Our inability in the UK to decide to do something, even something useless, and then deliver it, is exasperating.

    We can't build a high speed railway.
    We can't build a new airport runway at one of the busiest airports in the world.
    We can't build new motorways.
    We can't build power stations without roping in other countries.
    We can't build working warships.
    We can't even manage to build ordinary hospitals at a reasonable pace.

    How the hell the industrial revolution took place here and now we can't do diddly-squat is beyond me.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Just watched Partygate on C4.

    Worth a watch 'lest we forget'.

    I stopped watching as it was making me too angry.
    Yes Mrs P was seething at the end of it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Personally, I think Sunak made a simple mistake. When he heard HS2 was about "trains", he thought it was "trans". Speeding up trans via HS2, was something that worried him greatly, as it gets you perilously close to self ID.

    Hence his decision to oppose trans in the Red Wall, where they are socially conservative; but remain more supportive of trans in the South, where the socially liberal LibDems are the opposition.

    Makes about as much sense as MY pet theory.

    Which is, HMG is reimagining the concept of The North, so that it now commences at Lutton.

    Personally am hoping that Sunak gets "sucked in" (so to speak) by the Trans-British Pneumatic Tube.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Farooq said:

    It seems the first trains would run Manchester to Euston in 2041 under the original plan

    Allowing for delays it would have been 20 years or more before the service ran

    Lest we forget:
    Long-term decisions for a brighter future
    He's spending the saved money on light bulbs?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Would love to see some Greater Manchester seat polling after this week.

    The line for over/under Tory seats should probably be 1.5
    I'd struggle to see where they'd get 1 in the current climate. They won't win Altrincham and Sale West.
    Bolton West with a bit of swing back - Bolton has the most Uxbridgy GM seats.

    The hope of holding Cheadle or Hazel Grove if LD and Lab split the vote.

    But out of their 8 nominal defences they don't look near to being favourites anywhere.
    It's really, really, really easy to envisage the Tories being wiped out totally in their 22 Metro defences between the Dee and Don.
    I'm still hoping your sentence can be stopped after 'totally'.
  • Farooq said:

    It seems the first trains would run Manchester to Euston in 2041 under the original plan

    Allowing for delays it would have been 20 years or more before the service ran

    Lest we forget:
    Long-term decisions for a brighter future
    I am interested in just how Sunak explains this tomorrow

    Apparently it is a longer speech than normal according to Rigby of 40 minutes or so commencing about 11.30am

    It will then be no longer speculation but it will create a lot of debate
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
    The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
    No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus".
    Not likely to go down well.

    Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215
    edited October 2023

    It seems the first trains would run Manchester to Euston in 2041 under the original plan

    Allowing for delays it would have been 20 years or more before the service ran

    Yes- these things take time. Political wrangling has already delayed the project. And thanks to the Prime Minister, it will take even longer and cost even more. (The reasons it needs to happen, including getting better capacity through Manchester for East-West links, aren't going away.)

    And if Rishi is to be believed, the problem isn't about not being able to afford it, it's about his wanting to spend the money on other things.

    I hope this isn't going to turn into another example of chucking a nice bit of furniture on the bonfire to get some temporary joy. But given that that has been the ongoing policy of the government for years, I'm not optimistic.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited October 2023

    Just watched Partygate on C4.

    Worth a watch 'lest we forget'.

    I stopped watching as it was making me too angry.
    Sensible decision for your peace of mind
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    I'm not sure that preplanned government cities are a great idea: they tend to be soulless places, with little real industry.
    Then find a pre-existing city which is well-connected, could do with some investment and has a lot of brownfield land. Stoke, say.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited October 2023
    Rishi Sunak will vow to end 30 years of the status quo in politics as he tries to position himself as the change candidate for the next general election.

    In his first speech to the Conservative Party conference as leader, Mr Sunak will seek to paint Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, as the continuity choice for voters.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/03/rishi-sunak-tory-conference-speech-change-candidate/

    https://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/nevermind_nathan_fillion.gif
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    I'm not sure that preplanned government cities are a great idea: they tend to be soulless places, with little real industry.
    Then find a pre-existing city which is well-connected, could do with some investment and has a lot of brownfield land. Stoke, say.
    This is just one of those 'never gonna happen' ideas. The closest thing to it would be that someone creates an English Parliament which is based elsewhere, so some Government departments' staff move with it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
    The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
    No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus".
    Not likely to go down well.

    Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
    Voters in redwall Greater Manchester seats do NOT live in Manchester city itself and rarely go on the train to London.

    They would much rather have new buses and potholes repaired than HS2
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited October 2023
    I don't think HS2 will decide many seats in and of itself. But the wider incompetence it represents might.
  • OK, she was probably tired, but even still...

    Michelle Donelan:
    "I believe that we should stand up for things that are divisive and provoke hatred..."
    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1709337827937309120
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    I'm not sure that preplanned government cities are a great idea: they tend to be soulless places, with little real industry.
    Then find a pre-existing city which is well-connected, could do with some investment and has a lot of brownfield land. Stoke, say.
    This is just one of those 'never gonna happen' ideas. The closest thing to it would be that someone creates an English Parliament which is based elsewhere, so some Government departments' staff move with it.
    Well, yes. But I do enjoy the idea of forcing civil servants to go to Stoke.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited October 2023

    OK, she was probably tired, but even still...

    Michelle Donelan:
    "I believe that we should stand up for things that are divisive and provoke hatred..."
    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1709337827937309120

    Wow a Tory telling the truth ! She really had a dreadful time on Newsnight , embarrassing.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Tbf, pothole filling in the north doesn't come at all cheap, what with all those cobbles.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak will make a load of promises about new transport links in the north . Why would anyone believe this is beyond me .

    It's a bit depressing that all the people who suggested building it from the north down were proven correct.

    I note that Crossrail 2 has been "paused" rather than cancelled. And the £1.7 billion tunnel under Stonehenge is going ahead. And the Silverton tunnel.
    North down was the only possibility it would ever be built.

    Starmer has an opportunity to reset British politics. Westminster is a crumbling, decrepit fire hazard.

    Move Parliament and all Civil Servants out of London. Build a new city, DC/Canberra style in the North as a new capital and leave London for businesses. Sell all London property which will help fund a relocation.

    Let the Civil Servants adapt to life outside London. See how quickly attitudes on investment change.
    I'm not sure that preplanned government cities are a great idea: they tend to be soulless places, with little real industry.
    Then find a pre-existing city which is well-connected, could do with some investment and has a lot of brownfield land. Stoke, say.
    Stoke has a pretty good rail service. 90 mins to London and 40 to Manchester.
  • NYT live blog - McCarthy tells Republicans he will not be running for speaker again, according to lawmakers who attended the closed-door meeting underneath the Capitol.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited October 2023
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
    The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
    No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus".
    Not likely to go down well.

    Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
    Voters in redwall Greater Manchester seats do NOT live in Manchester city itself and rarely go on the train to London.

    They would much rather have new buses and potholes repaired than HS2
    *bangs head against brick wall*

    Really?
    "£6bn of rail investment in GM? Or repair some potholes?" "We're just simple people here, the pothole option seems much more up our street."

    What voters in redwall Greater Manchester want is what they were promised - i.e. levelling up - i.e. finally, some of the money that was always spent in London being spent in Greater Manchester. Because that brings about jobs and investment and growth. WHICH IS THE POINT OF HS2.

    Now, a secret: more even than HS2, we'd like NPR. That does even more: more access to jobs, more relief of suburban routes, more connectivity, more investement. But the middle section of NPR is delivered by HS2: we can't do NPR until HS2 Phase 2b puts in place the Manchester Airport to Manchester section, plus the high speed stations at Manchesters Piccadilly and Airport.

    (In fact, ALL of Phase 2b technically supports NPR, because there are two proposed NPR services an hour running Newcastle-Leeds-Manchester-Crewe-Birmingham. But weirdly no-one really talks about them.)
    Voters in redwall seats hardly ever go to London. Why would they therefore want a faster rail ink from Manchester city centre to London they would hardly ever use which could be used for bus routes they would use or repairing potholes in their area?

    Better bus routes is more levelling up for them and the working class Leave voters and pensioners than posh Remain voting commuters and students getting a faster commute to and from London.

    Even adding NPR routes to Leeds and Bradford wouldn't benefit them much either compared to better bus routes and local roads
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Last 8 greater manchester tory seats gone I reckon.

    I doubt most of the redwall Gter Manchester seats are bothered either way by HS2, they want inflation down further and better bus routes and local train stations not a quicker journey to London which they rarely go to anyway
    My point is it is two fingers to people from Manchester by Sunak. Doesn't matter whether it is HS2 or whatever. It is London elite telling the north that they are happy to spend billions on a high speed line out of london but manchester can go and do one.
    The Tories have a seat in Birmingham, the Tories have 0 seats in Manchester
    No seats in the City of Manchester, but, what, nine in Greater Manchester? Many won on the premise of Levelling Up. "Sorry Greater Manchester, we spent all our money on transport schemes in the south so can't afford to give you the £6bn we promised. But we'll repair some potholes and give you a new bus".
    Not likely to go down well.

    Surely, surely you can see how badly this is going down?
    Voters in redwall Greater Manchester seats do NOT live in Manchester city itself and rarely go on the train to London.

    They would much rather have new buses and potholes repaired than HS2
    Looking at HYUFD's post again, I do wonder whether this is what went through some SPAD's mind. "Voters in Leigh and Bury North are simple people. They don't want to go to London. They certainly don't want change - investment in Greater Manchester would frighten them. If we cancel HS2 they will understand and love us. We should announce it when we go to Manchester for the conference just to maximise the feel-good we will get from it."
    "We don't bother the outside world and don't want it bothering us."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyCsgreATug
This discussion has been closed.