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Why it’s becoming harder for a WH2024 Trump victory – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Recessions are temporary.

    But then again, that may well also be true of Brexit.
  • TimS said:

    On topic, a few things:

    1. I read his thread and I do not see the basis for the assertion that Trump is struggling in Georgia. Yes, there is the trial but, at this point, that seems to be pretty much factored into the equation. There doesn't look to be any new information in here suggesting Trump is now doing much worse in GA than he was previously - it is still likely to remain very tight.

    2. Having looked through what @paulmotty reposts, he does repost a lot of stuff that is anti-Trump but not really anything anti-Biden. That is fine per se but, given he is supposed to be the analyst for Betfair, my distinct impression from his Twitter (sorry X) feed is that he has a strong personal bias that feeds into his public opinions, and that is going to make me take his analysis with a pinch of salt.

    Latest is he (or his acolytes) has been intimidating the jury.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna100239

    It’s proper mafia tactics: make a secure conviction impossible by compromising the jury. I hope US justice is able to withstand it better than generations of Italian justice did. So long as the majority of republicans support el capo in this kind of behaviour it’ll continue.

    The RICO charge is especially relevant, as Trump acts like a Mafia don.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    edited August 2023

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
    What tosh

    Polands doing well from a low base. Poland has too small a population to overtake the UK on GDP. And if its GDP per head then it must also overtake France before it overtakes the UK and possibly Germany - so much for Brexit.

    As for our young folk moving to Europe its a load of crap since so few of them speak a foreign language, so how are they going to get a job ? Modern language teaching was butchered under Blair so who's teaching you to live in Warsaw ?

    LaLaLand again Alan. In which universe do you think UK GDP per capita is ahead of Germany's?
    As of today not. But Germany is currently in recession and faces a major restructuring of its economy. For Poland to catch up its a couple of decades so within those decades both the UK and Germany will be joshing for position and Poland has to pull the growth rabbit out of the hat every year.

    Hers our friends Goldman Sachs forecasting only 2 European economies will be in the global top 10 in the longer term - Germany (9) and UK (10), No sign of Poland.

    https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/the-path-to-2075-slower-global-growth-but-convergence-remains-intact/report.pdf

    All white powder on a table stuff no doubt but if thats their sentiment it suggest your trolling is just that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Too many goods being chased by too lol little 💰
    It's more a buyers' strike; the root problem here is assets (principally property) rather than goods.
    If you think prices are falling, you sit in your cash, as it will grow in value.

    If you've bought assets with too much debt, things go sour quickly. Forced sellers drive prices down further - vicious spiral.

    Banks become less willing (or more unable) to lend, so the contagion spreads.
    Deflation in the price of goods isn't necessarily a bad thing - electronics have consistently dropped in price for decades without that being a problem.
    True indeed. Was watching a Channel 5 nostalgia programme on the 1970s and noticed smallish TVs being advertised for £249, alongside chest freezers for £39. Ten-fold inflation since then.
    Yet a small-ish TV is stil £249.

    A 1970s Apple computer was around £2,000 as well.
  • Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    DavidL said:

    My wife and daughter went to see Barbie in Edinburgh last night. They ended up going to a later performance because the one they were heading for was completely sold out. On a wet Thursday, several weeks after opening. It seems to have become a social phenomenon. My wife's review was that there are some funny lines and some amusing scenes but it wasn't clear to her what the fuss is about. It didn't even particularly get her woke antenna agitated. Curious.

    Yes, wtached it a fortnight ago with other half, she said more or less what your wife did. Amusing nonsense but I hardly think it will be a classic.
  • Crooked House pub destruction linked to drug smuggler

    The fire that spread through The Crooked House pub brought to an end 200 years of history.

    It also marked the beginning of a bigger story that stretches far beyond the smoking ruins of one wonky pub. It is a story that links polluted streams, an unexplained fire, hazardous waste, felled woodland and a network of quarries across the country.

    The real story around the destruction of this landmark in the Black Country may yet prove as deep and dirty as the landfill site next door.

    The Times can disclose that the director of the company that hired a digger to demolish The Crooked House is a convicted drug smuggler. Morgan McGrath, 51, from Breansha, Co Tipperary, was jailed for 12 years in 2004 for his part in a £20 million international drug smuggling operation.

    McGrath was one of two men who pleaded guilty to charges relating to an attempt to import into Ireland 48kg of heroin, 198kg of cannabis resin, 591,180 Ecstasy tablets, 602,000 temazepam tablets and 132kg of the amphetamine commonly known as speed. The drugs were hidden beneath the false lead-lined floor of trailers carrying vegetables. At the time it was one of the biggest drug hauls to be intercepted by police in Europe.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/crooked-house-pub-destruction-linked-to-drug-smuggler-k8bh37239
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Foxy said:
    ... and very struck by this quote:

    'Lia Nici, the Conservative Party member of Parliament who’s represented Grimsby since 2019 [...] dismisses a return to fishing’s golden era, calling it “a romantic dream.”'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
    What tosh

    Polands doing well from a low base. Poland has too small a population to overtake the UK on GDP. And if its GDP per head then it must also overtake France before it overtakes the UK and possibly Germany - so much for Brexit.

    As for our young folk moving to Europe its a load of crap since so few of them speak a foreign language, so how are they going to get a job ? Modern language teaching was butchered under Blair so who's teaching you to live in Warsaw ?

    LaLaLand again Alan. In which universe do you think UK GDP per capita is ahead of Germany's?
    As of today not. But Germany is currently in recession and faces a major restructuring of its economy. For Poland to catch up its a couple of decades so within those decades both the UK and Germany will be joshing for position and Poland has to pull the growth rabbit out of the hat every year.

    Hers our friends Goldman Sachs forecasting only 2 European economies will be in the global top 10 in the longer term - Germany (9) and UK (10), No sign of Poland.

    https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/the-path-to-2075-slower-global-growth-but-convergence-remains-intact/report.pdf

    All white powder on a table stuff no doubt but if thats their sentiment it suggest your trolling is just that.
    The UK economy undoubtedly has serious problems with productivity, investment, training and balance of payments. It is this pretense that this is a post Brexit phenomenon that I find tiresome. These problems go back several decades and arose when we were supposedly benefiting from membership of the SM during which time our manufacturing base was very badly damaged and our trade deficit became perilous whilst we became hooked on cheap, unskilled labour.
  • UK retail sales have fallen sharply because of the unusually wet weather in July and high inflation and tighter interest rates knocking consumer finances.

    Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning showed that retail sales volumes fell 3.2 per cent annually in July, a deeper drop than June’s 1 per cent decline and a much bigger slide than analysts expected.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-retail-sales-fall-in-sixth-wettest-july-on-record-c3wkpg06r
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Too many goods being chased by too lol little 💰
    It's more a buyers' strike; the root problem here is assets (principally property) rather than goods.
    If you think prices are falling, you sit in your cash, as it will grow in value.

    If you've bought assets with too much debt, things go sour quickly. Forced sellers drive prices down further - vicious spiral.

    Banks become less willing (or more unable) to lend, so the contagion spreads.
    Deflation in the price of goods isn't necessarily a bad thing - electronics have consistently dropped in price for decades without that being a problem.
    True indeed. Was watching a Channel 5 nostalgia programme on the 1970s and noticed smallish TVs being advertised for £249, alongside chest freezers for £39. Ten-fold inflation since then.
    Yet a small-ish TV is stil £249.

    A 1970s Apple computer was around £2,000 as well.
    You're not comparing like with like though.
    A set with the same capabilities as a 70s model would be much cheaper, and an equivalent of the Apple II would be about £2.
    (The inflation adjusted price of the Apple II is around $6k.)
  • Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    I do keep reading pointed comments about Germany being in recession - and that we're not.

    Great! So the much bigger much more successful economy is somehow worse than our smaller crappier one because they just dipped into recession and we just stayed out of recession?

    They would need to be in a deep recession for a long time and our economy growing like a train for a long time for us to catch up.
    Form is temporary, class is permanent and all that.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    I do keep reading pointed comments about Germany being in recession - and that we're not.

    Great! So the much bigger much more successful economy is somehow worse than our smaller crappier one because they just dipped into recession and we just stayed out of recession?

    They would need to be in a deep recession for a long time and our economy growing like a train for a long time for us to catch up.
    I suggest you follow some of the comments the BDI are raising with the German government. Energy is top of the list and since Germany has a large industrial base this will be a major issue. The UK gave up much of its industry under Blair so doesnt have the problem.

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Too many goods being chased by too lol little 💰
    It's more a buyers' strike; the root problem here is assets (principally property) rather than goods.
    If you think prices are falling, you sit in your cash, as it will grow in value.

    If you've bought assets with too much debt, things go sour quickly. Forced sellers drive prices down further - vicious spiral.

    Banks become less willing (or more unable) to lend, so the contagion spreads.
    Deflation in the price of goods isn't necessarily a bad thing - electronics have consistently dropped in price for decades without that being a problem.
    True indeed. Was watching a Channel 5 nostalgia programme on the 1970s and noticed smallish TVs being advertised for £249, alongside chest freezers for £39. Ten-fold inflation since then.
    Yet a small-ish TV is stil £249.

    A 1970s Apple computer was around £2,000 as well.
    You're not comparing like with like though.
    A set with the same capabilities as a 70s model would be much cheaper, and an equivalent of the Apple II would be about £2.
    (The inflation adjusted price of the Apple II is around $6k.)
    Oh indeed. Gordon Moore was an intelligent fellow, and so much of the world’s economic growth of the past half-century has been driven by computers getting ever cheaper.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    So are we saying Britain is better off because it got rid of its manufacturing exports now?

    Brexiters are totally incoherent.
    Time wasters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    UK retail sales have fallen sharply because of the unusually wet weather in July and high inflation and tighter interest rates knocking consumer finances.

    Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning showed that retail sales volumes fell 3.2 per cent annually in July, a deeper drop than June’s 1 per cent decline and a much bigger slide than analysts expected.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-retail-sales-fall-in-sixth-wettest-july-on-record-c3wkpg06r

    This has been a truly miserable summer. Overcast and damp again today. Grass is out of control because it is always too wet to cut. I am having a break near Canterbury in early September. Can only hope it improves by then.
  • Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    I do keep reading pointed comments about Germany being in recession - and that we're not.

    Great! So the much bigger much more successful economy is somehow worse than our smaller crappier one because they just dipped into recession and we just stayed out of recession?

    They would need to be in a deep recession for a long time and our economy growing like a train for a long time for us to catch up.
    I suggest you follow some of the comments the BDI are raising with the German government. Energy is top of the list and since Germany has a large industrial base this will be a major issue. The UK gave up much of its industry under Blair so doesnt have the problem.

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.
    More bullshit exceptionalism on display right here. In the real world:

    https://www.ft.com/content/378253f2-a7a6-4c2d-a9e9-aa228f6ad547

    "Falling birth rate highlights UK’s demographic challenges
    Number of live births in England and Wales last year was lowest since 2002"
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    edited August 2023

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    I do keep reading pointed comments about Germany being in recession - and that we're not.

    Great! So the much bigger much more successful economy is somehow worse than our smaller crappier one because they just dipped into recession and we just stayed out of recession?

    They would need to be in a deep recession for a long time and our economy growing like a train for a long time for us to catch up.
    I suggest you follow some of the comments the BDI are raising with the German government. Energy is top of the list and since Germany has a large industrial base this will be a major issue. The UK gave up much of its industry under Blair so doesnt have the problem.

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.
    More bullshit exceptionalism on display right here. In the real world:

    https://www.ft.com/content/378253f2-a7a6-4c2d-a9e9-aa228f6ad547

    "Falling birth rate highlights UK’s demographic challenges
    Number of live births in England and Wales last year was lowest since 2002"
    youre simply showing you dont understand demographics.

    The main driver of UK population growth is immigration and people living longer,

  • DavidL said:

    UK retail sales have fallen sharply because of the unusually wet weather in July and high inflation and tighter interest rates knocking consumer finances.

    Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning showed that retail sales volumes fell 3.2 per cent annually in July, a deeper drop than June’s 1 per cent decline and a much bigger slide than analysts expected.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-retail-sales-fall-in-sixth-wettest-july-on-record-c3wkpg06r

    This has been a truly miserable summer. Overcast and damp again today. Grass is out of control because it is always too wet to cut. I am having a break near Canterbury in early September. Can only hope it improves by then.
    Worst of all it cost England an Ashes victory.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
    What tosh

    Polands doing well from a low base. Poland has too small a population to overtake the UK on GDP. And if its GDP per head then it must also overtake France before it overtakes the UK and possibly Germany - so much for Brexit.

    As for our young folk moving to Europe its a load of crap since so few of them speak a foreign language, so how are they going to get a job ? Modern language teaching was butchered under Blair so who's teaching you to live in Warsaw ?

    LaLaLand again Alan. In which universe do you think UK GDP per capita is ahead of Germany's?
    As of today not. But Germany is currently in recession and faces a major restructuring of its economy. For Poland to catch up its a couple of decades so within those decades both the UK and Germany will be joshing for position and Poland has to pull the growth rabbit out of the hat every year.

    Hers our friends Goldman Sachs forecasting only 2 European economies will be in the global top 10 in the longer term - Germany (9) and UK (10), No sign of Poland.

    https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/the-path-to-2075-slower-global-growth-but-convergence-remains-intact/report.pdf

    All white powder on a table stuff no doubt but if thats their sentiment it suggest your trolling is just that.
    UK vs Germany economic performance is overused by both sides of the Brexit argument. The fact is over the long term Germany has generally been richer, but the amount by which it’s outstripped the UK has waxed and waned over time.

    Here’s a side by side comparison since 1980.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/959301/gdp-of-europes-biggest-economies/

    TLDR the gap was small in 1980, grew during the 80s and 90s until about 1995, shrank significantly up until the financial crisis in 2007/8 and then grew again.

    That’s total GDP of course. The per capita figures are a bit worse for the UK because our population has grown while Germany’s has stagnated. There’s a chart of per capita here and the pattern is similar but it’s only back to 1990:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2022&locations=FR-DE-GB&start=1990&view=chart

    What really stands out (aside from Britain and France being essentially economic twins) is the outperformance since the financial crisis. Germany enjoyed an export boom to emerging markets, while Britain and France nursed their wounds. More recently the gap with Germany has stayed stable but France has started to outperform.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    O/T but another nice piece of heritage from Historic England - this time to do with Irish migrants in the NW of England.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/aug/18/stones-made-for-victorian-project-to-help-irish-workers-given-listed-status
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    My niece speaks fluent German. She already lived there for a year while studying. Her sister speaks fluent French and her husband is learning Spanish.

    Me retiring to the Continent doesn't help, but their generation emigrating would have until you voted away that opportunity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    On the several occasions I have been to Poland, I have yet to meet a Pole who couldn't speak English. And moreover, was very keen to speak English to get better at it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    DavidL said:

    UK retail sales have fallen sharply because of the unusually wet weather in July and high inflation and tighter interest rates knocking consumer finances.

    Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning showed that retail sales volumes fell 3.2 per cent annually in July, a deeper drop than June’s 1 per cent decline and a much bigger slide than analysts expected.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-retail-sales-fall-in-sixth-wettest-july-on-record-c3wkpg06r

    This has been a truly miserable summer. Overcast and damp again today. Grass is out of control because it is always too wet to cut. I am having a break near Canterbury in early September. Can only hope it improves by then.
    Wouldn't complain too much myself. Hot weather is much overrated. And full reservoirs and aquifers count for a lot, increasingly so.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Hurrah.

    The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to combat Russian forces as soon as a European pilot training programme is complete, American officials have said.

    The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sent letters to his counterparts in Denmark and the Netherlands, two countries leading the training of Ukrainian pilots, to assure them that Washington would expedite the approval for transfers of F-16s to Ukraine once the pilots are ready.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-to-get-f-16-jets-for-russia-war-after-us-approval-zwcwmbscw

    Escalation will just lead to escalation will lead to escalation will lead to escalation
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    edited August 2023
    DavidL said:

    UK retail sales have fallen sharply because of the unusually wet weather in July and high inflation and tighter interest rates knocking consumer finances.

    Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning showed that retail sales volumes fell 3.2 per cent annually in July, a deeper drop than June’s 1 per cent decline and a much bigger slide than analysts expected.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-retail-sales-fall-in-sixth-wettest-july-on-record-c3wkpg06r

    This has been a truly miserable summer. Overcast and damp again today. Grass is out of control because it is always too wet to cut. I am having a break near Canterbury in early September. Can only hope it improves by then.
    Down here it’s been ok. Very good June, rather dull and damp July but not exceptionally so, and a decent August. Kent has the best September climate in Britain so it’s a good choice, particularly East Kent.

    If you’re near Canterbury I recommend some of the Kent wine visits: Simpson’s in very slick, Barnsole completely eccentric, Westwell an excellent tour, and various small producers who are always keen to do tastings and sales. My vineyard unfortunately isn’t yet in production. The English wine shop and bar Corkk in Canterbury is also excellent. For food the Bridge Arms and Fordwich Arms. Sadly the Duck at Pett Bottom near my vineyard has just closed.

    *”down here” meaning actual home in London, but Kent has been similar
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited August 2023
    SLAB finally see the light:

    If Anas Sarwar had only listened to the Labour women who told him the flawed gender reform bill was deeply flawed, or the women’s rights campaigners from across Scotland, he wouldn’t find himself in such a mess, having to change his mind AFTER the bill passed and now languishes in court




    https://x.com/dalgetysusan/status/1692421008731341250
  • Hurrah.

    The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to combat Russian forces as soon as a European pilot training programme is complete, American officials have said.

    The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sent letters to his counterparts in Denmark and the Netherlands, two countries leading the training of Ukrainian pilots, to assure them that Washington would expedite the approval for transfers of F-16s to Ukraine once the pilots are ready.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-to-get-f-16-jets-for-russia-war-after-us-approval-zwcwmbscw

    Escalation will just lead to escalation will lead to escalation will lead to escalation
    Real socialists like Clem Attlee would call you out for your appeasement talk.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    edited August 2023
    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
    What tosh

    Polands doing well from a low base. Poland has too small a population to overtake the UK on GDP. And if its GDP per head then it must also overtake France before it overtakes the UK and possibly Germany - so much for Brexit.

    As for our young folk moving to Europe its a load of crap since so few of them speak a foreign language, so how are they going to get a job ? Modern language teaching was butchered under Blair so who's teaching you to live in Warsaw ?

    LaLaLand again Alan. In which universe do you think UK GDP per capita is ahead of Germany's?
    As of today not. But Germany is currently in recession and faces a major restructuring of its economy. For Poland to catch up its a couple of decades so within those decades both the UK and Germany will be joshing for position and Poland has to pull the growth rabbit out of the hat every year.

    Hers our friends Goldman Sachs forecasting only 2 European economies will be in the global top 10 in the longer term - Germany (9) and UK (10), No sign of Poland.

    https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/the-path-to-2075-slower-global-growth-but-convergence-remains-intact/report.pdf

    All white powder on a table stuff no doubt but if thats their sentiment it suggest your trolling is just that.
    UK vs Germany economic performance is overused by both sides of the Brexit argument. The fact is over the long term Germany has generally been richer, but the amount by which it’s outstripped the UK has waxed and waned over time.

    Here’s a side by side comparison since 1980.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/959301/gdp-of-europes-biggest-economies/

    TLDR the gap was small in 1980, grew during the 80s and 90s until about 1995, shrank significantly up until the financial crisis in 2007/8 and then grew again.

    That’s total GDP of course. The per capita figures are a bit worse for the UK because our population has grown while Germany’s has stagnated. There’s a chart of per capita here and the pattern is similar but it’s only back to 1990:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2022&locations=FR-DE-GB&start=1990&view=chart

    What really stands out (aside from Britain and France being essentially economic twins) is the outperformance since the financial crisis. Germany enjoyed an export boom to emerging markets, while Britain and France nursed their wounds. More recently the gap with Germany has stayed stable but France has started to outperform.
    I dont see UK v Germany as a Brexit issue. Its a national governance issue and the Germans have been better at managing their economy than we have. Having worked as MD in both countries there are sharp contrasts.

    My experience is I paid Germans for 35 hours work and they worked 35 hours. I paid Brits for 38 hours and it takes them about 40 hours to achieve the task.

    As for France I paid the french workforce for 35 hours and they worked about 32.

    In manufacturing Germany and France were years ahead in capital investment and automation which fed through in the productivity data. The UK was still attached to using labour rather than machines.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    edited August 2023
    Duplicate post vanilla being shit
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    On the several occasions I have been to Poland, I have yet to meet a Pole who couldn't speak English. And moreover, was very keen to speak English to get better at it.
    Yes, in most parts of Europe there is no requirement to speak the local language in order to work in many fields. If you want to work in IT in Germany, for example, being able to speak English is more important than being able to speak German. It's good to learn the language once you're there though.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    My niece speaks fluent German. She already lived there for a year while studying. Her sister speaks fluent French and her husband is learning Spanish.

    Me retiring to the Continent doesn't help, but their generation emigrating would have until you voted away that opportunity.
    So none in other words.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Hurrah.

    The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to combat Russian forces as soon as a European pilot training programme is complete, American officials have said.

    The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sent letters to his counterparts in Denmark and the Netherlands, two countries leading the training of Ukrainian pilots, to assure them that Washington would expedite the approval for transfers of F-16s to Ukraine once the pilots are ready.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-to-get-f-16-jets-for-russia-war-after-us-approval-zwcwmbscw

    A foolish delay, though.
    European nations could have started training Ukrainian pilots a year ago (that still hasn't yet started). It will be well into next year before any are operational in Ukraine.

    On a similar note, the US should prove this, which would significantly shift the balance of advantage in artillery (the headline is a bit OTT).

    Ukraine Seeks 'Gamechanger' HIMARS Upgrade To 'Win the War'
    https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-gamechanger-himars-upgrade-win-war-dcipm-cluster-munitions-counteroffensive-artillery-1820071
    ...The rockets, Rice said, will allow Ukrainian troops to hunt Russian artillery pieces—the battlefield's biggest killers that constantly harass Ukrainian units trying to break through Russian defenses—out to 45 kilometers (28 miles), further than the 25 kilometers (15 miles) attainable by the 155mm DCPIM rounds in service since July...

    ..It could be there tomorrow," he said. "There is no training required. They are fired from the HIMARS and the M270 multiple-launch rocket systems that [the Ukrainians] have and have used so effectively with solid projectiles. This would just be giving them cluster projectiles."..

    ...Rice dismissed concerns that more cluster bombs mean more explosives left behind. "We'll be able to map every single time [Ukraine fires] cluster munitions so that we can clean it up, as opposed to the Russian stuff. The Russians are throwing mines anywhere, they're throwing explosives. They're destroying the country. If they can't own it, they'll destroy it."..


    Note that in terms of postwar mine clearance, every such strike is geolocated, as they are targeted to GPS coordinates. Clearing any unexploded munitions would be a task several orders of magnitude less difficult than clearing the (possibly millions of) mines laid randomly by the Russians.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    I don't think you understand the nature of these competitions, HYUFD. Many countries compete in them, two of them make it to the final. In Qatar England was not one of those two. In Australia it is.

    HMQ was at Wembley in 1966. Her son and grandson are lazy, sexist poshos.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    My niece speaks fluent German. She already lived there for a year while studying. Her sister speaks fluent French and her husband is learning Spanish.

    Me retiring to the Continent doesn't help, but their generation emigrating would have until you voted away that opportunity.
    So none in other words.
    Absolutely. We can excuse our decades-long Tory slide and the madness of their post-Brexit self-harm because Scott doesn't speak enough languages. Its all his fault.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    Foxy said:
    Half of me is full of sympathy for these people, areas and towns that were so badly conned (I live in a 68% Leave area), and the other half of me is resentful and angry at the naivety of these people, areas and towns that were so badly conned.

    Like the affluent, cynical, right-wing Brexit peddlars ever gave a fuck, or ever will, about places and people like this.
    Rubbish, wages for the low paid have actually risen since Brexit. They knew what they were voting for
    "UK sees fastest wage rises in sectors most reliant on EU workers - Indeed | Reuters" https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-sees-fastest-wage-rises-sectors-most-reliant-eu-workers-indeed-2022-02-25/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    One of the points about moving somewhere is that you learn the language.

    You seem determined to make everyones choices for them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    My niece speaks fluent German. She already lived there for a year while studying. Her sister speaks fluent French and her husband is learning Spanish.

    Me retiring to the Continent doesn't help, but their generation emigrating would have until you voted away that opportunity.
    So none in other words.
    Absolutely. We can excuse our decades-long Tory slide and the madness of their post-Brexit self-harm because Scott doesn't speak enough languages. Its all his fault.
    Yes youre off on one again I see. Im beginning to see @Leon had a point
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    So none in other words.

    I speak at least one European language, fluently.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Scott_xP said:

    So none in other words.

    I speak at least one European language, fluently.
    English or Scots ?
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    Half of me is full of sympathy for these people, areas and towns that were so badly conned (I live in a 68% Leave area), and the other half of me is resentful and angry at the naivety of these people, areas and towns that were so badly conned.

    Like the affluent, cynical, right-wing Brexit peddlars ever gave a fuck, or ever will, about places and people like this.
    Rubbish, wages for the low paid have actually risen since Brexit. They knew what they were voting for
    "UK sees fastest wage rises in sectors most reliant on EU workers - Indeed | Reuters" https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-sees-fastest-wage-rises-sectors-most-reliant-eu-workers-indeed-2022-02-25/
    That report is over a year old, though. That blip has worked through the system, and now the biggest winners are finance/business services...

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/august2023
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    Miklosvar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    I don't think you understand the nature of these competitions, HYUFD. Many countries compete in them, two of them make it to the final. In Qatar England was not one of those two. In Australia it is.

    HMQ was at Wembley in 1966. Her son and grandson are lazy, sexist poshos.
    Was the president of the Federal Republic of Germany?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
    What tosh

    Polands doing well from a low base. Poland has too small a population to overtake the UK on GDP. And if its GDP per head then it must also overtake France before it overtakes the UK and possibly Germany - so much for Brexit.

    As for our young folk moving to Europe its a load of crap since so few of them speak a foreign language, so how are they going to get a job ? Modern language teaching was butchered under Blair so who's teaching you to live in Warsaw ?

    LaLaLand again Alan. In which universe do you think UK GDP per capita is ahead of Germany's?
    As of today not. But Germany is currently in recession and faces a major restructuring of its economy. For Poland to catch up its a couple of decades so within those decades both the UK and Germany will be joshing for position and Poland has to pull the growth rabbit out of the hat every year.

    Hers our friends Goldman Sachs forecasting only 2 European economies will be in the global top 10 in the longer term - Germany (9) and UK (10), No sign of Poland.

    https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/the-path-to-2075-slower-global-growth-but-convergence-remains-intact/report.pdf

    All white powder on a table stuff no doubt but if thats their sentiment it suggest your trolling is just that.
    UK vs Germany economic performance is overused by both sides of the Brexit argument. The fact is over the long term Germany has generally been richer, but the amount by which it’s outstripped the UK has waxed and waned over time.

    Here’s a side by side comparison since 1980.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/959301/gdp-of-europes-biggest-economies/

    TLDR the gap was small in 1980, grew during the 80s and 90s until about 1995, shrank significantly up until the financial crisis in 2007/8 and then grew again.

    That’s total GDP of course. The per capita figures are a bit worse for the UK because our population has grown while Germany’s has stagnated. There’s a chart of per capita here and the pattern is similar but it’s only back to 1990:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2022&locations=FR-DE-GB&start=1990&view=chart

    What really stands out (aside from Britain and France being essentially economic twins) is the outperformance since the financial crisis. Germany enjoyed an export boom to emerging markets, while Britain and France nursed their wounds. More recently the gap with Germany has stayed stable but France has started to outperform.
    I dont see UK v Germany as a Brexit issue. Its a national governance issue and the Germans have been better at managing their economy than we have. Having worked as MD in both countries there are sharp contrasts.

    My experience is I paid Germans for 35 hours work and they worked 35 hours. I paid Brits for 38 hours and it takes them about 40 hours to achieve the task.

    As for France I paid the french workforce for 35 hours and they worked about 32.

    In manufacturing Germany and France were years ahead in capital investment and automation which fed through in the productivity data. The UK was still attached to using labour rather than machines.
    I work in services, but I to extend the anecdote to the US, I’ve been struck by the propensity of Americans to just get on and do the job.

    The question is, is this national governance? Or culture? Or is there no meaningful distinction?
  • Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    One of the points about moving somewhere is that you learn the language.

    You seem determined to make everyones choices for them.
    Indeed. You can't get properly fluent in a language without living the language, and Brexit has made that a lot harder than it was for Brits.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    Half of me is full of sympathy for these people, areas and towns that were so badly conned (I live in a 68% Leave area), and the other half of me is resentful and angry at the naivety of these people, areas and towns that were so badly conned.

    Like the affluent, cynical, right-wing Brexit peddlars ever gave a fuck, or ever will, about places and people like this.
    Rubbish, wages for the low paid have actually risen since Brexit. They knew what they were voting for
    "UK sees fastest wage rises in sectors most reliant on EU workers - Indeed | Reuters" https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-sees-fastest-wage-rises-sectors-most-reliant-eu-workers-indeed-2022-02-25/
    Not to mention that a lot of low paid people have changed jobs in recent years, and are earning considerably more now than in 2019, something that doesn’t show up in statistics. Those companies and industries still trying to stick to paying minimum wage, are finding it increasingly difficult to recruit staff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    One of the points about moving somewhere is that you learn the language.

    You seem determined to make everyones choices for them.
    Indeed. You can't get properly fluent in a language without living the language, and Brexit has made that a lot harder than it was for Brits.
    One of my siblings moved to Sweden without speaking a word of Swedish, and is now fluent.
    Pre-Brexit, of course.

    Alanbrooke's arguments are rubbish.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Miklosvar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    I don't think you understand the nature of these competitions, HYUFD. Many countries compete in them, two of them make it to the final. In Qatar England was not one of those two. In Australia it is.

    HMQ was at Wembley in 1966. Her son and grandson are lazy, sexist poshos.
    Was the president of the Federal Republic of Germany?
    Heinrich Lübke.

    But - I would not be surprised if he didn't turn up, first because he wasn't a well man, and secondly because he was in the process of being unmasked as a Nazi collaborator having always posed as one of their victims (both true, incidentally).
  • HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    England didn’t reach the World Cup final in Qatar you absolute roaster.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    One of the points about moving somewhere is that you learn the language.

    You seem determined to make everyones choices for them.
    My son moved to Paris this year and lives and works there, I had nothing to do with the decision.

    Im simply calling out wanky bollocks from remainers who havent a clue on the issues involved, Ive lived and worked in Germany for 5 years, France for 5 years and have been chairman of a company in the Czech Republic. so I think I have a reasonable grasp of whats involved.

    I have seen no overwhelming move of Brits looking to work in continental Europe and those I have met are mostly out of their depth/ still learning with their colleagues having to work around them and speak english.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    One of the points about moving somewhere is that you learn the language.

    You seem determined to make everyones choices for them.
    Indeed. You can't get properly fluent in a language without living the language, and Brexit has made that a lot harder than it was for Brits.
    One of my siblings moved to Sweden without speaking a word of Swedish, and is now fluent.
    Pre-Brexit, of course.

    Alanbrooke's arguments are rubbish.
    I sense your frustration in not having done any of this yourself.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    On topic, agreed - though we shouldn't focus too much just on opinion in Georgia, where polling is tight and an immense amount will happen between now and Nov 2024.

    The poll in the tweet below is a bit of an outlier in putting Trump in the 30s in the NH primary race but its not that far out. Almost all others have him in the 40s - that's far from the overwhelming lead he has typically been enjoying nationally. It wouldn't take too much to imagine current events and their consistent bad-news drip-drip effect pushing even GOP primary voters (surely as core a Trump support base as any?), to ask whether it's worth the risk backing him, even where they won't question their support for him in principle.

    Now, a score in the 30s in NH is usually enough to get someone re/nominated as other votes consolidate but I wonder whether this year may prove an exception, where almost anyone who isn't a Trump backer to begin with will remain against him even as first-choice candidates drop out.

    Even if Trump does retain the nomination for a third straight election, the dynamics of the primary campaign will have to push whoever is left standing to oppose him outright; there simply is no alternative route to the nomination, never mind the White House - and that will have an effect with both GOP and independent voters (and loosely aligned Democrat-leaners).

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1692284745898451337
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893

    HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    England didn’t reach the World Cup final in Qatar you absolute roaster.
    Is it Prince William or the FA that decides whether or not he'll attend a match ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    One of the points about moving somewhere is that you learn the language.

    You seem determined to make everyones choices for them.
    Indeed. You can't get properly fluent in a language without living the language, and Brexit has made that a lot harder than it was for Brits.
    Maginally.

    What made it hard was abolishing the requirement for a foreign language at GCSE so language and culture overseas just didnt grasp anyone in their learning years bar an interested minority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Hurrah.

    The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to combat Russian forces as soon as a European pilot training programme is complete, American officials have said.

    The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sent letters to his counterparts in Denmark and the Netherlands, two countries leading the training of Ukrainian pilots, to assure them that Washington would expedite the approval for transfers of F-16s to Ukraine once the pilots are ready.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-to-get-f-16-jets-for-russia-war-after-us-approval-zwcwmbscw

    Escalation will just lead to escalation will lead to escalation will lead to escalation
    Or, it might allow the Ukrainians to (a) stop their cities being blown up by Russian missiles and (b) break through Russian defences and bring the war to an end.

    Ultimately, the only realistic escalations now for Moscow are nuclear war or to bring in Belarus. They have flung in pretty much everything else.* Neither seems especially likely whatever NATO does, the second because it would probably be counterproductive and the first because it wouldn't actually gain them anything.

    So - offering a scale up in military aid seems a reasonable political strategy.

    *I suppose you could have full military mobilisation of all military age males, but leaving aside the fact it's difficult to see how that could be implemented without causing a revolution, the ghost of Nicholas II can explain that it's bugger all use having gazillions of men if you have no weapons for them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ,

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    One of the points about moving somewhere is that you learn the language.

    You seem determined to make everyones choices for them.
    Indeed. You can't get properly fluent in a language without living the language, and Brexit has made that a lot harder than it was for Brits.
    One of my siblings moved to Sweden without speaking a word of Swedish, and is now fluent.
    Pre-Brexit, of course.

    Alanbrooke's arguments are rubbish.
    I sense your frustration in not having done any of this yourself.
    You are a very silly person.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    ydoethur said:

    Miklosvar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    I don't think you understand the nature of these competitions, HYUFD. Many countries compete in them, two of them make it to the final. In Qatar England was not one of those two. In Australia it is.

    HMQ was at Wembley in 1966. Her son and grandson are lazy, sexist poshos.
    Was the president of the Federal Republic of Germany?
    Heinrich Lübke.

    But - I would not be surprised if he didn't turn up, first because he wasn't a well man, and secondly because he was in the process of being unmasked as a Nazi collaborator having always posed as one of their victims (both true, incidentally).
    "German Chancellor Dr Ludwig Erhard who watched the match from his holiday bungalow in Bavaria sent a telegram to the German team, describing the match as a "great game" and thanking the players for their great service to German sport."

    https://www.theguardian.com/observer/englandfootball/story/0,9565,541570,00.html

    Argentina's President to watch World Cup final from home
    Read more At:
    https://www.aninews.in/news/world/others/argentinas-president-to-watch-world-cup-final-from-home20221218064450/

    Macron was in Qatar

    William does not have a real job, and is FA president. It also makes a difference that it's Australia, and it's the women.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Nigelb said:

    ,

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    One of the points about moving somewhere is that you learn the language.

    You seem determined to make everyones choices for them.
    Indeed. You can't get properly fluent in a language without living the language, and Brexit has made that a lot harder than it was for Brits.
    One of my siblings moved to Sweden without speaking a word of Swedish, and is now fluent.
    Pre-Brexit, of course.

    Alanbrooke's arguments are rubbish.
    I sense your frustration in not having done any of this yourself.
    You are a very silly person.
    Ah

    reduced to name calling.

    Ill pass up on that, chores beckon, so have a nice morning.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    new thread

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Close footage of the Russian Ka-52 downed outside of Robotyne yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1692422168301236226
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    The Prince and/or Prime Minister should go to the World Cup Final because England is playing in the Women's World Cup Final. You get used to the political tin ear of the Royal Family; I am more surprised Rishi is not going.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What will hit German GDP over the coming years aside from any economic issues is a declining population. Mid century Germany and the UK are forecast to be sort of level on headcount.

    If only there was some mechanism where people could move, freely, between Countries...
    How many European Languages do you speak fluently Scott ?
    My niece speaks fluent German. She already lived there for a year while studying. Her sister speaks fluent French and her husband is learning Spanish.

    Me retiring to the Continent doesn't help, but their generation emigrating would have until you voted away that opportunity.
    So none in other words.
    Absolutely. We can excuse our decades-long Tory slide and the madness of their post-Brexit self-harm because Scott doesn't speak enough languages. Its all his fault.
    Yes youre off on one again I see. Im beginning to see @Leon had a point
    I'm quoting from the Financial Times. If anyone is going off on one it is they. Perhaps the FT is the last bastion of socialism or something?
  • Miklosvar said:

    new thread

    Now you tell me.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Nigelb said:

    Hurrah.

    The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to combat Russian forces as soon as a European pilot training programme is complete, American officials have said.

    The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sent letters to his counterparts in Denmark and the Netherlands, two countries leading the training of Ukrainian pilots, to assure them that Washington would expedite the approval for transfers of F-16s to Ukraine once the pilots are ready.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-to-get-f-16-jets-for-russia-war-after-us-approval-zwcwmbscw

    A foolish delay, though.
    European nations could have started training Ukrainian pilots a year ago (that still hasn't yet started). It will be well into next year before any are operational in Ukraine.

    The Dutch F-16 training effort in Arizona didn't shut down until a few months ago so there wasn't any surplus training capacity until now.

    The Danish do F-16 type conversion in the front line squadrons at Skrydstrup so that's a very narrow pipeline.

    The non-US large scale F-16 training establishments are in Israel, Egypt and Turkey so they would have been an option but they presumably answered, "LOL, No."
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    ...We need the nation to take this team to their hearts so that people will see the ludicrous nonsense of some 3rd division no hoper deciding that he is really Ethel and has been all along and being permitted to play against, or compete for a place on the team with, the lovely Alessia.

    This isn't the first time you've pointed this out (apart from your stiffy on the lovely Alessia). Do you really think people transition to get better scores in sports?

    I'm sure they don't.

    But the difference between male and female performance in sports is so extreme, that many sports would inevitably get dominated to by trans competitors.

    Let me give you an example. The US Women's World Cup team played Wrexham (who has just been promoted to the old fourth division!)

    This is 11 of the very best female players in the world, against a team that wouldn't be in the top 1,000 worldwide.

    Wrexham won 12-0.
    It was a seven-a-side game I think. But nevertheless your point stands.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, I just bought this badge from a shop in Ukraine.

    To anyone who doubts what the Ukranians think of the Brits at the moment… 🇬🇧 🇺🇦


    I want one
    In fairness the flag seems to be slightly fashionable thing in any case, it seems to pop up around the globe on clothing and tat in some odd places, and not just stamped on flags as a colonial legacy.
    Not in Scotland
    Tend to prefer tattoos, don't they, Malc?

    I remember meeting an enthusiatic if somewhat intoxicated Rangers supporter on a cross-channel ferry and he very happily showed me the flags on various parts of his anatomy. He was particularly proud of the one with the legend 1690 inked below it. He asked me if I knew what the date signified.

    However when I suggested it was perhaps the last time Rangers won the Scottish League title he seemed strangely unamused.
    LOL, Peter, I should have qualified it right enough. The neanderthals of course love it as they live in the 17th century.
    For the avoidance of doubt, Malcolm, I should state that some of the best fun I ever had at football matches was in the company of Scottish supporters, notably at the formerly annual and now much missed England/Scotland match. Their generosity was as legendary as their passion.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    The Prince and/or Prime Minister should go to the World Cup Final because England is playing in the Women's World Cup Final. You get used to the political tin ear of the Royal Family; I am more surprised Rishi is not going.
    Hang on, Rushi gets crucified for taking helicopter flights, now you want him to fly 12,000 miles for. 90 minutes game of football that’s live on BBC? And then fly back? Will no one think of climate change?
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    HYUFD said:

    Even the Daily Mail are calling out the lazy parasitical Royals.

    I have no doubt if England’s men had reached the World Cup final, Prince William would be there

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12418955/AN-WILSON-England-World-Cup-Prince-William.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

    The Prince didn't go to the men's world cup in Qatar so why should he fly all the way to Australia for one football match and back? When you know full well you and your fellow republicans would criticise him for the emissions used
    The Prince and/or Prime Minister should go to the World Cup Final because England is playing in the Women's World Cup Final. You get used to the political tin ear of the Royal Family; I am more surprised Rishi is not going.
    Hang on, Rushi gets crucified for taking helicopter flights, now you want him to fly 12,000 miles for. 90 minutes game of football that’s live on BBC? And then fly back? Will no one think of climate change?
    On a commercial flight which was going anyway
This discussion has been closed.