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Why it’s becoming harder for a WH2024 Trump victory – politicalbetting.com

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  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    Some of the Labour messaging seems to be targeted at earnings (and therefore workers). That's smart, given the Tories have all but abandoned anyone who works/has a mortgage.

    Example: https://twitter.com/johnadgrady/status/1692227804975259722?s=20

    (Note - I have not done my usual deep-dive on whether the stats are nonsense or not. I am engaged in internet arguments elsewhere this evening).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Tories voting red Tory is the right thing to do for them


    Great idea Phillip
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,265

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Given Starmer wants to concrete over much of the greenbelt with new housing like you do and the LDs are the most NIMBY of the main parties that would not be a surprise
  • The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Depends which seat you are in. He probably sees me as some obsessive Starmerite, happily excusing any ill. And yet I am categorically definitively not voting Labour at the election...
  • Off topic, but important: "Authorities in Canada are racing to evacuate nearly 20,000 residents from the territorial capital, Yellowknife, in the Northwest Territories by Friday as a raging wildfire nears the city.

    With the blaze threatening to reach the city in the coming days, firefighters have tried to ward off flames that have come close to Yellowknife, officials said."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/17/canada-wildfires-yellowknife-evacuation/

    That's the entire population -- and Yellowknife is the only city in the entire Northwest Territories, which together have an "area of approximately 1,144,000 km2 (442,000 sq mi)".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Territories

    (Has the Canadian government failed on fire prevention? Possibly.)

    QTWAIN.

    They'd have failed had they not evacuated the population and people died as a result.

    Fires happen, they are a natural part of the environment. If you live in deep woodlands, you need to get used to fires being a risk. You can not control some forces of nature.

    Many towns have been evacuated this summer, like every summer, in Canada. My own family living there were evacuated earlier in the year, its something that is planned for - you live in a hamlet in a forest on a mountain, you have to have evacuation plans for when, not if, evacuations get called for.

    Hopefully, typically, the risk will pass and the hamlet/town/city will be unscathed and you can return. If your home burns down, that's what insurance is for, and you replace it - but you can't replace people who die if they don't evacuate, so that's why you do.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    "Vote Conservative"
    Or Labour

    Same thing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    I suppose there is theoretically a place where Starmer does overcorrect from the Corbyn era for the majority of people, not simply fans of that era, but I really struggle to see how he could manage it.

    People of generally leftish persuasion probably see someone who still presents a distinction from the Tory government, with big and sustained poll leads and a party that appears mostly united in purpose.

    People who may have been on board with the Tory governments but have grown weary or annoyed by it will see someone who looks and sounds like a credible PM, safe and unextreme, but definitely a fresh hand on the tiller even if he might not radically shift the direction. Which for the generally cautious is a good thing, and reinforced by the complaints by those holding a candle for Corbyn.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Very much off topic, why is my Facebook feed full of testicle products? Apparently I should be shaving them and then encasing them in special pants with compartments.

    Allegedly this is based on web searches. It isn't. Some of this stuff I didn't know existed until I saw it on Facebook...

    Mrs BJs was full of fake Wilko sales sites.

    Also known as testicles
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ChinaBank is missing payments on investment products.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=ANAZaWPimRQ

    Sinostocks trending down, a potential massive contagion coming down the line.

    Deflation can be disastrous in an economy with high debt sectors.
    Overall nonfinancial sector debt (government, corporate and households) in China is now 300% of GDP. That is higher than in advanced economies (which have far better developed financial sectors to manage the risk) and twice the level in other emerging markets. China has real problems.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Given Starmer wants to concrete over much of the greenbelt with new housing like you do and the LDs are the most NIMBY of the main parties that would not be a surprise
    The Lib Dems are increasingly anti-LTN though, sensing an opportunity to steal some votes off the Tories. This is a fascinating pivot given their historical green-ish credentials. Decisions, decisions.

    Edit: I have always assumed that the Lib Dems are "green". Is that true?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Another 2 broken pledges from SKS Party today. No reduction in student charges and a watering down of the promised workers rights.

    SKS fans suck it up.

    FIVE votes for the crank left. I would say suck it up, but there are so few of you that it would be unfair.
    Crank crank crank
    +2
    You don't need to do +2. We know you are a crank. We just don't know if you are Jimmie or the other one.
    RP the only person who can beat my SKS fans % with his crank count
  • The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Depends which seat you are in. He probably sees me as some obsessive Starmerite, happily excusing any ill. And yet I am categorically definitively not voting Labour at the election...
    I believe I'm in a pretty bellwether seat, not entirely certain whether its changed due to boundary changes or not though.

    Overall across the country, losing Corbynistas like BJO to the Greens (many of whom will hold their nose and vote Labour anyway) while gaining disenchanted Tories isn't something that is going to have Starmer crying into his Corn Flakes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Very much off topic, why is my Facebook feed full of testicle products? Apparently I should be shaving them and then encasing them in special pants with compartments.

    Allegedly this is based on web searches. It isn't. Some of this stuff I didn't know existed until I saw it on Facebook...

    Facebook knows you are a world authority on talking testicles?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ChinaBank is missing payments on investment products.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=ANAZaWPimRQ

    Sinostocks trending down, a potential massive contagion coming down the line.

    Deflation can be disastrous in an economy with high debt sectors.
    China hasn't had a proper recession/slump in the modern era, outside covid. Sooner or later it is going to have one, and it will have massive effects on the region and world trade.

    People are very tolerant of dictators when they are prospering, but that will wear thin when that is no longer the case. Xi is on borrowed time.
    The problem is that Xi has smashed the succession process that Deng Xiaoping put in place. Dictators frequently get overthrown, but they are often a lot more resilient then we hope. Mugabe hang on for ages, despite the Zimbabwean economy completely collapsing, and despite Zimbabwe having at one time much more space for democratic civil society that could oppose him.

    Xi might only be 70, but he's got to be a strong favourite for dictator most likely to die peacefully in bed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,265
    edited August 2023
    kle4 said:

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    I suppose there is theoretically a place where Starmer does overcorrect from the Corbyn era for the majority of people, not simply fans of that era, but I really struggle to see how he could manage it.

    People of generally leftish persuasion probably see someone who still presents a distinction from the Tory government, with big and sustained poll leads and a party that appears mostly united in purpose.

    People who may have been on board with the Tory governments but have grown weary or annoyed by it will see someone who looks and sounds like a credible PM, safe and unextreme, but definitely a fresh hand on the tiller even if he might not radically shift the direction. Which for the generally cautious is a good thing, and reinforced by the complaints by those holding a candle for Corbyn.
    In his guts Starmer is a Brownite not a Blairite. Corbynites will think he has gone too far too the centre but if he wins the next general election he will still be the most leftwing elected PM we have had since Harold Wilson
  • The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Depends which seat you are in. He probably sees me as some obsessive Starmerite, happily excusing any ill. And yet I am categorically definitively not voting Labour at the election...
    I believe I'm in a pretty bellwether seat, not entirely certain whether its changed due to boundary changes or not though.

    Overall across the country, losing Corbynistas like BJO to the Greens (many of whom will hold their nose and vote Labour anyway) while gaining disenchanted Tories isn't something that is going to have Starmer crying into his Corn Flakes.
    Green? Pah. Proper Socialiats vote for TUSC. Socialist Labour. Left Unity. Some Jimmie Krankie party where you show your radical purity whilst sincerely hoping the Tories win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ChinaBank is missing payments on investment products.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=ANAZaWPimRQ

    Sinostocks trending down, a potential massive contagion coming down the line.

    Deflation can be disastrous in an economy with high debt sectors.
    China hasn't had a proper recession/slump in the modern era, outside covid. Sooner or later it is going to have one, and it will have massive effects on the region and world trade.

    People are very tolerant of dictators when they are prospering, but that will wear thin when that is no longer the case. Xi is on borrowed time.
    The problem is that Xi has smashed the succession process that Deng Xiaoping put in place. Dictators frequently get overthrown, but they are often a lot more resilient then we hope. Mugabe hang on for ages, despite the Zimbabwean economy completely collapsing, and despite Zimbabwe having at one time much more space for democratic civil society that could oppose him.

    Xi might only be 70, but he's got to be a strong favourite for dictator most likely to die peacefully in bed.
    Yes, going the way of Gaddafi must be pretty rare. Maybe dictators are just getting smarter? That's a depressing thought.
  • Russia building ‘thousands of Iranian-design drones’ in secret base
    Leaked documents show engineers working to create huge arsenal of aerial weapons capable of swarming Ukrainian targets

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/17/russia-building-iranian-style-attack-drones-shahed-ukraine/ (£££)
  • Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ChinaBank is missing payments on investment products.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=ANAZaWPimRQ

    Sinostocks trending down, a potential massive contagion coming down the line.

    Deflation can be disastrous in an economy with high debt sectors.
    China hasn't had a proper recession/slump in the modern era, outside covid. Sooner or later it is going to have one, and it will have massive effects on the region and world trade.

    People are very tolerant of dictators when they are prospering, but that will wear thin when that is no longer the case. Xi is on borrowed time.
    The problem is that Xi has smashed the succession process that Deng Xiaoping put in place. Dictators frequently get overthrown, but they are often a lot more resilient then we hope. Mugabe hang on for ages, despite the Zimbabwean economy completely collapsing, and despite Zimbabwe having at one time much more space for democratic civil society that could oppose him.

    Xi might only be 70, but he's got to be a strong favourite for dictator most likely to die peacefully in bed.
    Putin surely is going to die peacefully in bed?

    After accidentally cutting his throat while shaving that is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    I suppose there is theoretically a place where Starmer does overcorrect from the Corbyn era for the majority of people, not simply fans of that era, but I really struggle to see how he could manage it.

    People of generally leftish persuasion probably see someone who still presents a distinction from the Tory government, with big and sustained poll leads and a party that appears mostly united in purpose.

    People who may have been on board with the Tory governments but have grown weary or annoyed by it will see someone who looks and sounds like a credible PM, safe and unextreme, but definitely a fresh hand on the tiller even if he might not radically shift the direction. Which for the generally cautious is a good thing, and reinforced by the complaints by those holding a candle for Corbyn.
    In his guts Starmer is a Brownite not a Blairite. Corbynites will think he has gone too far too the centre but if he wins the next general election he will still be the most leftwing elected PM we have had since Harold Wilson
    And depending on when the GE happens quite possibly the oldest PM upon taking office since Attlee. Boomers will love him.
  • Private Covid vaccines may soon be on sale in UK for the first time
    Despite the spread of variant Eris, 12 million fewer people will be offered Covid vaccines on the NHS this winter — but they may be able to buy them

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-covid-vaccine-booster-uk-symptoms-variant-knp8gbbrw (£££)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    ...We need the nation to take this team to their hearts so that people will see the ludicrous nonsense of some 3rd division no hoper deciding that he is really Ethel and has been all along and being permitted to play against, or compete for a place on the team with, the lovely Alessia.

    This isn't the first time you've pointed this out (apart from your stiffy on the lovely Alessia). Do you really think people transition to get better scores in sports?

    I'm sure they don't.

    But the difference between male and female performance in sports is so extreme, that many sports would inevitably get dominated to by trans competitors.

    Let me give you an example. The US Women's World Cup team played Wrexham (who has just been promoted to the old fourth division!)

    This is 11 of the very best female players in the world, against a team that wouldn't be in the top 1,000 worldwide.

    Wrexham won 12-0.
    You have cited this one case (which has been debunked elsewhere), but there are other counterexamples. Lia Thomas, the US swimmer, didn't set women's swimming on fire when she transitioned - she became the 17th fastest woman at her event, and in swimming 17th is nowhere. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/lia-thomas-trans-swimmer-ron-desantis-b2091218.html

    And from the other side, if trans athletes are only allowed to compete in their birth gender, you get situations like Mack Beggs, who as an ftm trans athlete, dominated girls wrestling in Texas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/25/transgender-wrestler-mack-beggs-wins-texas-girls-title
    OK, here are some more examples if you like.

    The Williams sisters, while absolutely dominating women's tennis, lost back-to-back to 203rd ranked player in the world, Karsten Braasch. (These were easy victories for the German, he won one match 6-1 and the other 6-2.)

    And in 2013 someone on Twitter suggested Andy Murray and Serena Williams should play. Serena said: "that would be fun. I doubt I'd win a point, but that would be fun."

    I've already pointed out that when Starlizard's team played Brighton, then it was a walkover for Starlizard.

    And - by the way - pointing out that one person didn't dominate their event is extraordinarily misleading. If I became a woman (and I have no current plans to do so), then I wouldn't win anything. The point is that there are massive differences in average height, weight, etc., that give male athletes a huge advantage.

    Women aren't separated because of the fact they feel like women; they are seperated because being XX results in serious physical disadvantages compared to those born XY.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    edited August 2023
    O/T

    Topaz Video AI Enhancer is the first computer program I've been excited about for about 15 years. Using the trial version atm.

    https://neilchasefilm.com/topaz-video-enhance-ai
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    Miklosvar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    ...We need the nation to take this team to their hearts so that people will see the ludicrous nonsense of some 3rd division no hoper deciding that he is really Ethel and has been all along and being permitted to play against, or compete for a place on the team with, the lovely Alessia.

    This isn't the first time you've pointed this out (apart from your stiffy on the lovely Alessia). Do you really think people transition to get better scores in sports?

    I'm sure they don't.

    But the difference between male and female performance in sports is so extreme, that many sports would inevitably get dominated to by trans competitors.

    Let me give you an example. The US Women's World Cup team played Wrexham (who has just been promoted to the old fourth division!)

    This is 11 of the very best female players in the world, against a team that wouldn't be in the top 1,000 worldwide.

    Wrexham won 12-0.
    You have cited this one case (which has been debunked elsewhere), but there are other counterexamples. Lia Thomas, the US swimmer, didn't set women's swimming on fire when she transitioned - she became the 17th fastest woman at her event, and in swimming 17th is nowhere. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/lia-thomas-trans-swimmer-ron-desantis-b2091218.html

    And from the other side, if trans athletes are only allowed to compete in their birth gender, you get situations like Mack Beggs, who as an ftm trans athlete, dominated girls wrestling in Texas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/25/transgender-wrestler-mack-beggs-wins-texas-girls-title
    Only a complete arse would transition m to f and then think hey, thank god my life is so much better in the round that I am also going to compete against proper female athletes on a level playing field, honest. And as for someone explicitly calling themselves James, cheering them on ...
    Obviously no one transitions from male to female in order to be a professional athlete. But are you telling me that no-one who transitions isn't a keen and capable footballer?
  • Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ChinaBank is missing payments on investment products.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=ANAZaWPimRQ

    Sinostocks trending down, a potential massive contagion coming down the line.

    Deflation can be disastrous in an economy with high debt sectors.
    China hasn't had a proper recession/slump in the modern era, outside covid. Sooner or later it is going to have one, and it will have massive effects on the region and world trade.

    People are very tolerant of dictators when they are prospering, but that will wear thin when that is no longer the case. Xi is on borrowed time.
    The problem is that Xi has smashed the succession process that Deng Xiaoping put in place. Dictators frequently get overthrown, but they are often a lot more resilient then we hope. Mugabe hang on for ages, despite the Zimbabwean economy completely collapsing, and despite Zimbabwe having at one time much more space for democratic civil society that could oppose him.

    Xi might only be 70, but he's got to be a strong favourite for dictator most likely to die peacefully in bed.
    Putin surely is going to die peacefully in bed?

    After accidentally cutting his throat while shaving that is.
    Actually, it's "accidentally brutally"!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited August 2023
    I honestly have no clue what would be reasonable in these various cases, since I assume the prosecutors opened with dates they know will be pushed back at least a bit, but 3 goddamn years of delay? He's having a complete laugh.

    I note the screenshot shows that 'President Trump' is asking for it - I would really hope that one good thing to come out of his refusal to accept defeat would be americans changing their habit of referring to past elected officials by their most senior formerly held title.

    That sort of thing goes well beyond due respect for someone's past service.

    Interesting that Bill Barr commented that the documents case really should be able to be done pretty quickly 'if the judge is anywhere competent', but I bet it isn't.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Miklosvar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    ...We need the nation to take this team to their hearts so that people will see the ludicrous nonsense of some 3rd division no hoper deciding that he is really Ethel and has been all along and being permitted to play against, or compete for a place on the team with, the lovely Alessia.

    This isn't the first time you've pointed this out (apart from your stiffy on the lovely Alessia). Do you really think people transition to get better scores in sports?

    I'm sure they don't.

    But the difference between male and female performance in sports is so extreme, that many sports would inevitably get dominated to by trans competitors.

    Let me give you an example. The US Women's World Cup team played Wrexham (who has just been promoted to the old fourth division!)

    This is 11 of the very best female players in the world, against a team that wouldn't be in the top 1,000 worldwide.

    Wrexham won 12-0.
    You have cited this one case (which has been debunked elsewhere), but there are other counterexamples. Lia Thomas, the US swimmer, didn't set women's swimming on fire when she transitioned - she became the 17th fastest woman at her event, and in swimming 17th is nowhere. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/lia-thomas-trans-swimmer-ron-desantis-b2091218.html

    And from the other side, if trans athletes are only allowed to compete in their birth gender, you get situations like Mack Beggs, who as an ftm trans athlete, dominated girls wrestling in Texas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/25/transgender-wrestler-mack-beggs-wins-texas-girls-title
    Only a complete arse would transition m to f and then think hey, thank god my life is so much better in the round that I am also going to compete against proper female athletes on a level playing field, honest. And as for someone explicitly calling themselves James, cheering them on ...
    Obviously no one transitions from male to female in order to be a professional athlete. But are you telling me that no-one who transitions isn't a keen and capable footballer?
    I'm old enough to recall when "Bruce" Jenner was featured on Wheaties boxes.
  • kle4 said:

    I honestly have no clue what would be reasonable in these various cases, since I assume the prosecutors opened with dates they know will be pushed back at least a bit, but 3 goddamn years of delay? He's having a complete laugh.

    I note the screenshot shows that 'President Trump' is asking for it - I would really hope that one good thing to come out of his refusal to accept defeat would be americans changing their habit of referring to past elected officials by their most senior formerly held title.

    That sort of thing goes well beyond due respect for someone's past service.

    Interesting that Bill Barr commented that the documents case really should be able to be done pretty quickly 'if the judge is anywhere competent', but I bet it isn't.
    Personally would NOT ask Bill Barr for legal advice to fight a parking ticket.

    Was a minor-league Al Haig. And is now profiting from being anti-Trump, just as he profited for being pro-Trump.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    viewcode said:

    I suppose I could flounce and come back as Quantum_of_Solace..

    Come back as the best Bond film, SPECTRE.
    Please.

    On Her Majesty's Secret Service.
    Skyfall for me.
    I once bored @Taz stupid with a very lengthy rant about why Moonraker was severely underrated... :)

    [EDIT: It has lasers! In space! With shuttles! In space! With much pew pew! Exclamation mark!]
    [EDIT 2: Space laser battle! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG5v7ng0o4A]
    Moonraker is pretty much up there with Spy Who Loved me as one of my favourite Bond stories.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    I suppose I could flounce and come back as Quantum_of_Solace..

    Come back as the best Bond film, SPECTRE.
    Please.

    On Her Majesty's Secret Service.
    Skyfall for me.
    I once bored @Taz stupid with a very lengthy rant about why Moonraker was severely underrated... :)

    [EDIT: It has lasers! In space! With shuttles! In space! With much pew pew! Exclamation mark!]
    [EDIT 2: Space laser battle! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG5v7ng0o4A]
    And one of the best henchmen in the series.
    Who appeared in one of the best Twilight Zone episodes. ‘it’s a cookbook !’
  • Off topic, but important: "Authorities in Canada are racing to evacuate nearly 20,000 residents from the territorial capital, Yellowknife, in the Northwest Territories by Friday as a raging wildfire nears the city.

    With the blaze threatening to reach the city in the coming days, firefighters have tried to ward off flames that have come close to Yellowknife, officials said."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/17/canada-wildfires-yellowknife-evacuation/

    That's the entire population -- and Yellowknife is the only city in the entire Northwest Territories, which together have an "area of approximately 1,144,000 km2 (442,000 sq mi)".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Territories

    (Has the Canadian government failed on fire prevention? Possibly.)

    Believe that in Canada, forests (or at least crown lands) are a provincial & territorial, NOT federal, responsibility.

    Exception being Indian reserves and national parks.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ChinaBank is missing payments on investment products.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=ANAZaWPimRQ

    Sinostocks trending down, a potential massive contagion coming down the line.

    Deflation can be disastrous in an economy with high debt sectors.
    China hasn't had a proper recession/slump in the modern era, outside covid. Sooner or later it is going to have one, and it will have massive effects on the region and world trade.

    People are very tolerant of dictators when they are prospering, but that will wear thin when that is no longer the case. Xi is on borrowed time.
    The problem is that Xi has smashed the succession process that Deng Xiaoping put in place. Dictators frequently get overthrown, but they are often a lot more resilient then we hope. Mugabe hang on for ages, despite the Zimbabwean economy completely collapsing, and despite Zimbabwe having at one time much more space for democratic civil society that could oppose him.

    Xi might only be 70, but he's got to be a strong favourite for dictator most likely to die peacefully in bed.
    Putin surely is going to die peacefully in bed?

    After accidentally cutting his throat while shaving that is.
    Actually, it's "accidentally brutally"!
    Will he die in Moscow or Dunny-on-the-Wold ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    I suppose I could flounce and come back as Quantum_of_Solace..

    Come back as the best Bond film, SPECTRE.
    Please.

    On Her Majesty's Secret Service.
    Skyfall for me.
    I once bored @Taz stupid with a very lengthy rant about why Moonraker was severely underrated... :)

    [EDIT: It has lasers! In space! With shuttles! In space! With much pew pew! Exclamation mark!]
    [EDIT 2: Space laser battle! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG5v7ng0o4A]
    And one of the best henchmen in the series.
    Who appeared in one of the best Twilight Zone episodes. ‘it’s a cookbook !’
    But Jaws gets very crap in Moonraker. I love a Roger Moore gagfest but Moonraker is a bit too gamey even for me. Hovercraft gondolas and double taking pigeons before they even get into space.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    What are the main causes of deflation?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,792
    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Prices are decided by supply and demand. Deflation occurs thru greater supply and/or lower demand. "Demand" is a function of the amount of money in the economy. "Supply" is a function of the number of things in the economy.

    For example, heating. When it is cold you need heat to survive, and people will pay more for it until the amount of heat bought is equal to the amount of money offered. When it is warm you do not need heat and demand drops, less money is offered, prices fall.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Prices are decided by supply and demand. Deflation occurs thru greater supply and/or lower demand. "Demand" is a function of the amount of money in the economy. "Supply" is a function of the number of things in the economy.

    For example, heating. When it is cold you need heat to survive, and people will pay more for it until the amount of heat bought is equal to the amount of money offered. When it is warm you do not need heat and demand drops, less money is offered, prices fall.

    Thanks. Always been useless at economics.
  • Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    To further what viewcode said, one of the main reasons we have deflation issues around the globe (especially in Japan, but in Europe including UK between GFC and 2020) is high levels of debt.

    If people's money is going to service debts, instead of to purchase goods, then even if they have money it is not going to goods, hence deflationary pressures.

    There is so much debt in the system nowadays, so much money going to service finance, money chasing money that not as much money is chasing goods.

    Lockdown changed that two-fold which brought us out of facing deflation. Firstly the Bank of England printed so much money that the money supply increased far more than it would have. Secondly while locked down and not going on holiday/out/whatever people paid down debts. There was the biggest fall in personal debts in a very long time during lockdown.

    So extra inflationary pressures combined with lower deflationary pressures, with pretty explosive results. Then the war happened cutting the supply of goods further and so inflation went even higher.

    But debt is still extremely high. So deflationary pressures do still exist, they're just being outweighed at the present moment.
  • To further the point, interest rates at 5% now that debt levels are far higher can be as painful for households as interest rates at 10% was when debt was much lower in 80s/early 90s

    That effectively is the deflationary impact of debt.
  • To further the point, interest rates at 5% now that debt levels are far higher can be as painful for households as interest rates at 10% was when debt was much lower in 80s/early 90s

    That effectively is the deflationary impact of debt.

    Also when I took out my first mortgage in 1983 there was tax relief (MIRAS) at 30%. Which made a huge difference, 10% became 7%. Income tax was 30% for most people then.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    "Spain's Socialist candidate elected as parliament speaker

    Francina Armengol, the candidate proposed by Spain's Socialist party, was on Thursday elected by lawmakers as the parliament's new speaker, a win for Pedro Sánchez in his fight to be re-elected as prime minister."

    https://www.thelocal.es/20230817/spains-socialist-candidate-elected-as-parliament-speaker
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Names and addresses of Georgia grand jurors posted on rightwing websites
    Sheriff’s office said investigators were working with local, state and federal agencies to track down origins of threats in Fulton county
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/17/georgia-grand-jurors-information-posted-rightwing-websites
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    I'm sitting on a patio, staring out over Vesuvius as the sun rises.

    This travel lark can be pleasant...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Off topic, but important: "Authorities in Canada are racing to evacuate nearly 20,000 residents from the territorial capital, Yellowknife, in the Northwest Territories by Friday as a raging wildfire nears the city.

    With the blaze threatening to reach the city in the coming days, firefighters have tried to ward off flames that have come close to Yellowknife, officials said."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/17/canada-wildfires-yellowknife-evacuation/

    That's the entire population -- and Yellowknife is the only city in the entire Northwest Territories, which together have an "area of approximately 1,144,000 km2 (442,000 sq mi)".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Territories

    (Has the Canadian government failed on fire prevention? Possibly.)

    QTWAIN.

    They'd have failed had they not evacuated the population and people died as a result.

    Fires happen, they are a natural part of the environment. If you live in deep woodlands, you need to get used to fires being a risk. You can not control some forces of nature.

    Many towns have been evacuated this summer, like every summer, in Canada. My own family living there were evacuated earlier in the year, its something that is planned for - you live in a hamlet in a forest on a mountain, you have to have evacuation plans for when, not if, evacuations get called for.

    Hopefully, typically, the risk will pass and the hamlet/town/city will be unscathed and you can return. If your home burns down, that's what insurance is for, and you replace it - but you can't replace people who die if they don't evacuate, so that's why you do.
    This ain't a normal summer of fires.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/17/yellowknife-wildfire-canada-evacuation

    "“The reality is we’ve been fighting this fire for over a month. This fire has burned deep, this fire has burned hot, and it has found ways through multiple different sets of established [control] lines,” said the Northwest Territories fire information officer Mike Westwick."

    "This summer saw the hottest day ever recorded in the far north of the country when Fort Good Hope – a community about 500 miles north-west of Yellowknife – hit 37.4C (99.3F)."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    Evergrande has filed for US bankruptcy. Debt of $300bn is a rather enormous figure.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66540785
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    HSBC is highly exposed to China.
    It’s also Britain’s largest bank.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889

    Good morning, everyone.

    Evergrande has filed for US bankruptcy. Debt of $300bn is a rather enormous figure.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66540785

    Sounds like an enormous cruise 🚢
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889
    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Too many goods being chased by too lol little 💰
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Given Starmer wants to concrete over much of the greenbelt with new housing like you do and the LDs are the most NIMBY of the main parties that would not be a surprise
    The Lib Dems are increasingly anti-LTN though, sensing an opportunity to steal some votes off the Tories. This is a fascinating pivot given their historical green-ish credentials. Decisions, decisions.

    Edit: I have always assumed that the Lib Dems are "green". Is that true?
    Pretty much pioneers of green policies in local government. Ed Davey is extremely committed to addressing climate change and certainly the party membership is pretty green too.
  • Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Nigelb said:

    Names and addresses of Georgia grand jurors posted on rightwing websites
    Sheriff’s office said investigators were working with local, state and federal agencies to track down origins of threats in Fulton county
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/17/georgia-grand-jurors-information-posted-rightwing-websites

    The GOP is going to have to decide whether or not it supports the rule of law. It is as simple as that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Cicero said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Given Starmer wants to concrete over much of the greenbelt with new housing like you do and the LDs are the most NIMBY of the main parties that would not be a surprise
    The Lib Dems are increasingly anti-LTN though, sensing an opportunity to steal some votes off the Tories. This is a fascinating pivot given their historical green-ish credentials. Decisions, decisions.

    Edit: I have always assumed that the Lib Dems are "green". Is that true?
    Pretty much pioneers of green policies in local government. Ed Davey is extremely committed to addressing climate change and certainly the party membership is pretty green too.
    Yes, that is very much my local parties membership and position. Not Nimby, indeed pro-development as long as it is environmentally sensitive, built to be energy efficient and phased in to allow the schools and other infrastructure to adapt.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ChinaBank is missing payments on investment products.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=ANAZaWPimRQ

    Sinostocks trending down, a potential massive contagion coming down the line.

    Deflation can be disastrous in an economy with high debt sectors.
    China hasn't had a proper recession/slump in the modern era, outside covid. Sooner or later it is going to have one, and it will have massive effects on the region and world trade.

    People are very tolerant of dictators when they are prospering, but that will wear thin when that is no longer the case. Xi is on borrowed time.
    The problem is that Xi has smashed the succession process that Deng Xiaoping put in place. Dictators frequently get overthrown, but they are often a lot more resilient then we hope. Mugabe hang on for ages, despite the Zimbabwean economy completely collapsing, and despite Zimbabwe having at one time much more space for democratic civil society that could oppose him.

    Xi might only be 70, but he's got to be a strong favourite for dictator most likely to die peacefully in bed.
    Museveni has got to be up there in the running for that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920

    Nigelb said:

    Names and addresses of Georgia grand jurors posted on rightwing websites
    Sheriff’s office said investigators were working with local, state and federal agencies to track down origins of threats in Fulton county
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/17/georgia-grand-jurors-information-posted-rightwing-websites

    The GOP is going to have to decide whether or not it supports the rule of law. It is as simple as that.
    That's easy. If the US didn't have all these weirdo freaks, it wouldn't have this problem. We can have the rule of law back after we've killed all the trans folk.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Nigelb said:

    Names and addresses of Georgia grand jurors posted on rightwing websites
    Sheriff’s office said investigators were working with local, state and federal agencies to track down origins of threats in Fulton county
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/17/georgia-grand-jurors-information-posted-rightwing-websites

    The GOP is going to have to decide whether or not it supports the rule of law. It is as simple as that.
    It made that choice a couple of years back. Now it is working out the consequences.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    The more that BJO insults Starmer, the more I think maybe I should feel safe to vote for his party afterall rather than Lib Dems.

    If disenchanted Tory voters like myself vote Labour, while disenchanted Corbynistas vote Green, then that is a very positive net result for Starmer.

    Tories voting red Tory is the right thing to do for them


    Great idea Phillip
    Close to, if not actually, doxing there BJO. Cut it out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Names and addresses of Georgia grand jurors posted on rightwing websites
    Sheriff’s office said investigators were working with local, state and federal agencies to track down origins of threats in Fulton county
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/17/georgia-grand-jurors-information-posted-rightwing-websites

    The GOP is going to have to decide whether or not it supports the rule of law. It is as simple as that.
    That's easy. If the US didn't have all these weirdo freaks, it wouldn't have this problem. We can have the rule of law back after we've killed all the trans folk.
    Are you saying theirs is a simple a gender?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898
    Fire on ship carrying electric cars - what caused the fire?
    Not the electric cars it seems.
    "After inspecting the damaged ship, he told the local press that between 900 and 1000 of the cars on board appear to be in good condition — including all 498 electric cars."
    "The fire probably started in the 8th deck of the 12-deck ship, as that is where the worst damage is. The electric cars were all on decks far below. "
    https://cleantechnica.com/2023/08/17/a-ship-carrying-electric-cars-is-on-fire-we-must-run-and-tell-the-king/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, I just bought this badge from a shop in Ukraine.

    To anyone who doubts what the Ukranians think of the Brits at the moment… 🇬🇧 🇺🇦


    I want one
    In fairness the flag seems to be slightly fashionable thing in any case, it seems to pop up around the globe on clothing and tat in some odd places, and not just stamped on flags as a colonial legacy.
    Not in Scotland
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Off-topic, I hope for United's sake that Mason Greenwood is as good on his return as he was before his unfortunate idiocy. Imagine the excitement if he comes back and plays like Harry Maguire...

    This is dodgy ground surely.

    Greenwood hasn't been found guilty of anything, and AFAIK hasn't admitted any reprehensible behaviour. What he has been accused of is vile of course but don't we have to follow an 'innocent until proved guilty' approach?

    Maybe I'm missing something, but if 'his unfortunate idiocy' is the unproven accusation it can't be used to condemn him.
    Hmm the recording discussed on radio made him out to be a very unsavoury character.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Too many goods being chased by too lol little 💰
    It's more a buyers' strike; the root problem here is assets (principally property) rather than goods.
    If you think prices are falling, you sit in your cash, as it will grow in value.

    If you've bought assets with too much debt, things go sour quickly. Forced sellers drive prices down further - vicious spiral.

    Banks become less willing (or more unable) to lend, so the contagion spreads.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    Look at them.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Tres said:

    Off-topic, I hope for United's sake that Mason Greenwood is as good on his return as he was before his unfortunate idiocy. Imagine the excitement if he comes back and plays like Harry Maguire...

    This is dodgy ground surely.

    Greenwood hasn't been found guilty of anything, and AFAIK hasn't admitted any reprehensible behaviour. What he has been accused of is vile of course but don't we have to follow an 'innocent until proved guilty' approach?

    Maybe I'm missing something, but if 'his unfortunate idiocy' is the unproven accusation it can't be used to condemn him.
    go away, listen to the recordings, and come back and think about what you're defending.
    I wasn't defending it and haven't listened to the recordings. I've now seen transcript TSE has posted, and if that's definitely Greenwood that's way more than 'unfortunate idiocy'. United would surely do best to part company and let him find another club if he can, assuming that's a genuine recording.

    I wonder whether he denies it's him, tries to say it's some weird sex game his partner was complicit in (she's no longer pressing charges, I believe) or what? But if it's as it appears to be United would be crazy to stick with him.
    Employment law operates on the civil standard of proof. You would have to show, I’m assuming, something like behaviour that brought the team into disrepute, on the balance of probabilities, to fire him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Very much off topic, why is my Facebook feed full of testicle products? Apparently I should be shaving them and then encasing them in special pants with compartments.

    Allegedly this is based on web searches. It isn't. Some of this stuff I didn't know existed until I saw it on Facebook...

    Facebook knows you are a world authority on talking testicles?
    He's just on the ball.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Tres said:

    Off-topic, I hope for United's sake that Mason Greenwood is as good on his return as he was before his unfortunate idiocy. Imagine the excitement if he comes back and plays like Harry Maguire...

    This is dodgy ground surely.

    Greenwood hasn't been found guilty of anything, and AFAIK hasn't admitted any reprehensible behaviour. What he has been accused of is vile of course but don't we have to follow an 'innocent until proved guilty' approach?

    Maybe I'm missing something, but if 'his unfortunate idiocy' is the unproven accusation it can't be used to condemn him.
    go away, listen to the recordings, and come back and think about what you're defending.
    Exactly. The man has not committed any crime. But was a total idiot in what he did. I hope - whether he plays for us or anyone else going forward - that the experience has made him a Sadder and Wiser engine.
    I think "idiot" is giving him far too much leeway. He should be kicked to the kerb a nasty piece of work. He was very very lucky to get a free pass for sure.
  • malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, I just bought this badge from a shop in Ukraine.

    To anyone who doubts what the Ukranians think of the Brits at the moment… 🇬🇧 🇺🇦


    I want one
    In fairness the flag seems to be slightly fashionable thing in any case, it seems to pop up around the globe on clothing and tat in some odd places, and not just stamped on flags as a colonial legacy.
    Not in Scotland
    Tend to prefer tattoos, don't they, Malc?

    I remember meeting an enthusiatic if somewhat intoxicated Rangers supporter on a cross-channel ferry and he very happily showed me the flags on various parts of his anatomy. He was particularly proud of the one with the legend 1690 inked below it. He asked me if I knew what the date signified.

    However when I suggested it was perhaps the last time Rangers won the Scottish League title he seemed strangely unamused.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    Two council by elections last night: LibDems held in Marshalswick East & Jersey Farm (St Albans), although the Cons came closer than previously, and Lab lost to an Independent in Ayresome (Middlesbrough)

    Good Week/Bad Week Index

    LDm +30
    Grn -3
    Con -11
    Lab -43
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, I just bought this badge from a shop in Ukraine.

    To anyone who doubts what the Ukranians think of the Brits at the moment… 🇬🇧 🇺🇦


    I want one
    In fairness the flag seems to be slightly fashionable thing in any case, it seems to pop up around the globe on clothing and tat in some odd places, and not just stamped on flags as a colonial legacy.
    Not in Scotland
    Tend to prefer tattoos, don't they, Malc?

    I remember meeting an enthusiatic if somewhat intoxicated Rangers supporter on a cross-channel ferry and he very happily showed me the flags on various parts of his anatomy. He was particularly proud of the one with the legend 1690 inked below it. He asked me if I knew what the date signified.

    However when I suggested it was perhaps the last time Rangers won the Scottish League title he seemed strangely unamused.
    You should have suggested that it was his bank keycard number.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, I just bought this badge from a shop in Ukraine.

    To anyone who doubts what the Ukranians think of the Brits at the moment… 🇬🇧 🇺🇦


    I want one
    In fairness the flag seems to be slightly fashionable thing in any case, it seems to pop up around the globe on clothing and tat in some odd places, and not just stamped on flags as a colonial legacy.
    Not in Scotland
    Tend to prefer tattoos, don't they, Malc?

    I remember meeting an enthusiatic if somewhat intoxicated Rangers supporter on a cross-channel ferry and he very happily showed me the flags on various parts of his anatomy. He was particularly proud of the one with the legend 1690 inked below it. He asked me if I knew what the date signified.

    However when I suggested it was perhaps the last time Rangers won the Scottish League title he seemed strangely unamused.
    You should have suggested that it was his bank keycard number.
    It probably was.
  • Foxy said:
    When you go through the various groups that made up the 52%, how many have actually got what they wanted from Brexit?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Remarkable chart on UK stock market undervaluation since the Brexit vote:

    https://x.com/shjfrench/status/1689605854457155585?s=46

    Arbitrage opportunity, but probably only for yield from dividend paying companies unless it reverses.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Too many goods being chased by too lol little 💰
    It's more a buyers' strike; the root problem here is assets (principally property) rather than goods.
    If you think prices are falling, you sit in your cash, as it will grow in value.

    If you've bought assets with too much debt, things go sour quickly. Forced sellers drive prices down further - vicious spiral.

    Banks become less willing (or more unable) to lend, so the contagion spreads.
    Deflation in the price of goods isn't necessarily a bad thing - electronics have consistently dropped in price for decades without that being a problem.
    Are we talking real or nominal terms?

    I thought one of the reasons for having a target of 2% inflation was that it takes advantage of sticky prices. Firms don't like putting prices up, so low, stable inflation induces them to find ways to produce stuff more cheaply.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    🦘 🦘 🦘
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, I just bought this badge from a shop in Ukraine.

    To anyone who doubts what the Ukranians think of the Brits at the moment… 🇬🇧 🇺🇦


    I want one
    In fairness the flag seems to be slightly fashionable thing in any case, it seems to pop up around the globe on clothing and tat in some odd places, and not just stamped on flags as a colonial legacy.
    Not in Scotland
    Tend to prefer tattoos, don't they, Malc?

    I remember meeting an enthusiatic if somewhat intoxicated Rangers supporter on a cross-channel ferry and he very happily showed me the flags on various parts of his anatomy. He was particularly proud of the one with the legend 1690 inked below it. He asked me if I knew what the date signified.

    However when I suggested it was perhaps the last time Rangers won the Scottish League title he seemed strangely unamused.
    LOL, Peter, I should have qualified it right enough. The neanderthals of course love it as they live in the 17th century.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    edited August 2023
    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    Remoaners are fining royalist capybaras, says the Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/17/capybara-queen-elizabeth-brexit-border-row-northern-ireland/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Too many goods being chased by too lol little 💰
    It's more a buyers' strike; the root problem here is assets (principally property) rather than goods.
    If you think prices are falling, you sit in your cash, as it will grow in value.

    If you've bought assets with too much debt, things go sour quickly. Forced sellers drive prices down further - vicious spiral.

    Banks become less willing (or more unable) to lend, so the contagion spreads.
    Deflation in the price of goods isn't necessarily a bad thing - electronics have consistently dropped in price for decades without that being a problem.
    True indeed. Was watching a Channel 5 nostalgia programme on the 1970s and noticed smallish TVs being advertised for £249, alongside chest freezers for £39. Ten-fold inflation since then.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Foxy said:
    When you go through the various groups that made up the 52%, how many have actually got what they wanted from Brexit?
    BoZo

    Dan Hannan

    That might be it. I am not sure even Dom got what he wanted.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Foxy said:
    When you go through the various groups that made up the 52%, how many have actually got what they wanted from Brexit?
    1. Boris Johnson, 2. Putin, 3. Er... struggling now.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:
    When you go through the various groups that made up the 52%, how many have actually got what they wanted from Brexit?
    BoZo

    Dan Hannan

    That might be it. I am not sure even Dom got what he wanted.
    Dan H didn't- you've read his hopecast for What Brexit Will Be Like.

    And whilst Boris got to be PM, that turned out a bit Monkey's Paw, didn't it?

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    DougSeal said:

    Tres said:

    Off-topic, I hope for United's sake that Mason Greenwood is as good on his return as he was before his unfortunate idiocy. Imagine the excitement if he comes back and plays like Harry Maguire...

    This is dodgy ground surely.

    Greenwood hasn't been found guilty of anything, and AFAIK hasn't admitted any reprehensible behaviour. What he has been accused of is vile of course but don't we have to follow an 'innocent until proved guilty' approach?

    Maybe I'm missing something, but if 'his unfortunate idiocy' is the unproven accusation it can't be used to condemn him.
    go away, listen to the recordings, and come back and think about what you're defending.
    I wasn't defending it and haven't listened to the recordings. I've now seen transcript TSE has posted, and if that's definitely Greenwood that's way more than 'unfortunate idiocy'. United would surely do best to part company and let him find another club if he can, assuming that's a genuine recording.

    I wonder whether he denies it's him, tries to say it's some weird sex game his partner was complicit in (she's no longer pressing charges, I believe) or what? But if it's as it appears to be United would be crazy to stick with him.
    Employment law operates on the civil standard of proof. You would have to show, I’m assuming, something like behaviour that brought the team into disrepute, on the balance of probabilities, to fire him.
    They could presumably sell him, telling he's unlikely to be picked again if he stays.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:
    When you go through the various groups that made up the 52%, how many have actually got what they wanted from Brexit?
    BoZo

    Dan Hannan

    That might be it. I am not sure even Dom got what he wanted.
    Dan H didn't- you've read his hopecast for What Brexit Will Be Like.

    And whilst Boris got to be PM, that turned out a bit Monkey's Paw, didn't it?

    The only thing worse than not having a dream, is having your dream come true....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
    What tosh

    Polands doing well from a low base. Poland has too small a population to overtake the UK on GDP. And if its GDP per head then it must also overtake France before it overtakes the UK and possibly Germany - so much for Brexit.

    As for our young folk moving to Europe its a load of crap since so few of them speak a foreign language, so how are they going to get a job ? Modern language teaching was butchered under Blair so who's teaching you to live in Warsaw ?

  • Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    The bit in the FT piece that really resonated for me was the flag shagers reference. The notion that Britain (by which they mean England) is exceptional, and their exceptionalism has driven stupidity like "we hold all the cards" thinking.

    I know I bash my fellow English a lot, but until nationally the "we rule the waves" nonsense gets dropped, we're going to continue our long and slow decline. The best thing Starmer could do after becoming PM is hold a mirror up to reality.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    Foxy said:
    When you go through the various groups that made up the 52%, how many have actually got what they wanted from Brexit?
    The "sovereignty" crowd who think it's a win to follow EU rules because business demands it rather than have a role in shaping them as an EU member seem pretty happy still.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    The bit in the FT piece that really resonated for me was the flag shagers reference. The notion that Britain (by which they mean England) is exceptional, and their exceptionalism has driven stupidity like "we hold all the cards" thinking.

    I know I bash my fellow English a lot, but until nationally the "we rule the waves" nonsense gets dropped, we're going to continue our long and slow decline. The best thing Starmer could do after becoming PM is hold a mirror up to reality.
    The English need to read some Burns.

    O, wad some Power the giftie gie us
    To see oursels as others see us!
    It wad frae monie a blunder free us,
    An' foolish notion.
  • On topic, a few things:

    1. I read his thread and I do not see the basis for the assertion that Trump is struggling in Georgia. Yes, there is the trial but, at this point, that seems to be pretty much factored into the equation. There doesn't look to be any new information in here suggesting Trump is now doing much worse in GA than he was previously - it is still likely to remain very tight.

    2. Having looked through what @paulmotty reposts, he does repost a lot of stuff that is anti-Trump but not really anything anti-Biden. That is fine per se but, given he is supposed to be the analyst for Betfair, my distinct impression from his Twitter (sorry X) feed is that he has a strong personal bias that feeds into his public opinions, and that is going to make me take his analysis with a pinch of salt.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
    What tosh

    Polands doing well from a low base. Poland has too small a population to overtake the UK on GDP. And if its GDP per head then it must also overtake France before it overtakes the UK and possibly Germany - so much for Brexit.

    As for our young folk moving to Europe its a load of crap since so few of them speak a foreign language, so how are they going to get a job ? Modern language teaching was butchered under Blair so who's teaching you to live in Warsaw ?

    LaLaLand again Alan. In which universe do you think UK GDP per capita is ahead of Germany's?
  • Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    I do keep reading pointed comments about Germany being in recession - and that we're not.

    Great! So the much bigger much more successful economy is somehow worse than our smaller crappier one because they just dipped into recession and we just stayed out of recession?

    They would need to be in a deep recession for a long time and our economy growing like a train for a long time for us to catch up.
  • DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Depressing but obvious piece in the FT: the UK economy is broken, we're sliding well below our former competitors in France and Germany, and are heading towards being beaten by Poland: https://www.ft.com/content/b1321c43-e183-4c52-90a1-4f2eed08e88f

    Tories have been in power for most of this period of decline, please explain.

    The Telegraph is telling young people to emigrate, largely because of policies inflicted on them by its readers.

    https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1692212494570319944?t=zEf0J2-PmIll18419wY9NQ&s=19
    They can easily move to Germany or the Netherlands and get a job... Oh sorry actually they can't.
    Doesnt seem right asking them to move to two countries in recession.
    Poland’s doing quite well. They could move there. Except they can’t. Thanks for that.
    What tosh

    Polands doing well from a low base. Poland has too small a population to overtake the UK on GDP. And if its GDP per head then it must also overtake France before it overtakes the UK and possibly Germany - so much for Brexit.

    As for our young folk moving to Europe its a load of crap since so few of them speak a foreign language, so how are they going to get a job ? Modern language teaching was butchered under Blair so who's teaching you to live in Warsaw ?

    LaLaLand again Alan. In which universe do you think UK GDP per capita is ahead of Germany's?
    Two World Wars and One World Cup. Do Dah. Do Dah.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the main causes of deflation?

    Too many goods being chased by too lol little 💰
    It's more a buyers' strike; the root problem here is assets (principally property) rather than goods.
    If you think prices are falling, you sit in your cash, as it will grow in value.

    If you've bought assets with too much debt, things go sour quickly. Forced sellers drive prices down further - vicious spiral.

    Banks become less willing (or more unable) to lend, so the contagion spreads.
    Deflation in the price of goods isn't necessarily a bad thing - electronics have consistently dropped in price for decades without that being a problem.
    Are we talking real or nominal terms?

    I thought one of the reasons for having a target of 2% inflation was that it takes advantage of sticky prices. Firms don't like putting prices up, so low, stable inflation induces them to find ways to produce stuff more cheaply.
    For electronics, real terms.

    Agreed, though inflation (or at least a low amount of it) is also effectively the price for having a functioning monetary system.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    On topic, a few things:

    1. I read his thread and I do not see the basis for the assertion that Trump is struggling in Georgia. Yes, there is the trial but, at this point, that seems to be pretty much factored into the equation. There doesn't look to be any new information in here suggesting Trump is now doing much worse in GA than he was previously - it is still likely to remain very tight.

    2. Having looked through what @paulmotty reposts, he does repost a lot of stuff that is anti-Trump but not really anything anti-Biden. That is fine per se but, given he is supposed to be the analyst for Betfair, my distinct impression from his Twitter (sorry X) feed is that he has a strong personal bias that feeds into his public opinions, and that is going to make me take his analysis with a pinch of salt.

    Latest is he (or his acolytes) has been intimidating the jury.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna100239

    It’s proper mafia tactics: make a secure conviction impossible by compromising the jury. I hope US justice is able to withstand it better than generations of Italian justice did. So long as the majority of republicans support el capo in this kind of behaviour it’ll continue.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    My wife and daughter went to see Barbie in Edinburgh last night. They ended up going to a later performance because the one they were heading for was completely sold out. On a wet Thursday, several weeks after opening. It seems to have become a social phenomenon. My wife's review was that there are some funny lines and some amusing scenes but it wasn't clear to her what the fuss is about. It didn't even particularly get her woke antenna agitated. Curious.
This discussion has been closed.