"...Agree with much of this but your post suggests that a democratic decision at one point in time is immutable. The mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fulfilled. We’ve done what the ballot paper said. We would not be reversing that decision (that is, as you say, impossible) but making a new decision. We’ll be joining on, as you say, new terms. Nothing undemocratic about that at all. And the masochism of “make your bed and lie in it” is pragmatically dangerous. Historical attempts to make entire populations suffer for past mistakes have not ended well.
The 1983 referendum in Ireland that introduced the 8th amendment was recently superseded by a new right to abortion. That’s wasn’t undemocratic either. Introducing timescales to these things is artificial."
Not immutable, Doug. In due course, yes, by all means a Nation can and should be prepared to revisit its decisions. But with a major set of Treaties such as those we abandoned, the time scale has to be long. Apart from anything else, it will be decades at least before anyone can say without fear of contradiction that Brexit failed, or was a bad thing. You can even argue that decisions on Sovereignity are almost timeless. In fact if I were to play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I would point to Irish Independence in 1921 as having been a bad thing for that Country in the short and medium term, economically at least. Who would say so now though?
I would also argue that the 'masochism' to which you refer is necessary, otherwise Nations will duck in and out of their Treaties without due respect for their consequences. I think it really will do this Country good to live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least. One benefit of Brexit may be that we learn that when serious questions of international trade and diplomatic relations are put to us, we take them seriously and don't allow ourselves to be misled by fibs on the side of a bus and elsewhere. (And the fibs were not on all sides, of course, as we all know.)
It's a tough learning process but imagine if Remain had won narrowly. The issue would never have gone away. Now it looks like a large majority understand what the right answer was, and why.
"...Agree with much of this but your post suggests that a democratic decision at one point in time is immutable. The mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fulfilled. We’ve done what the ballot paper said. We would not be reversing that decision (that is, as you say, impossible) but making a new decision. We’ll be joining on, as you say, new terms. Nothing undemocratic about that at all. And the masochism of “make your bed and lie in it” is pragmatically dangerous. Historical attempts to make entire populations suffer for past mistakes have not ended well.
The 1983 referendum in Ireland that introduced the 8th amendment was recently superseded by a new right to abortion. That’s wasn’t undemocratic either. Introducing timescales to these things is artificial."
Not immutable, Doug. In due course, yes, by all means a Nation can and should be prepared to revisit its decisions. But with a major set of Treaties such as those we abandoned, the time scale has to be long. Apart from anything else, it will be decades at least before anyone can say without fear of contradiction that Brexit failed, or was a bad thing. You can even argue that decisions on Sovereignity are almost timeless. In fact if I were to play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I would point to Irish Independence in 1921 as having been a bad thing for that Country in the short and medium term, economically at least. Who would say so now though?
I would also argue that the 'masochism' to which you refer is necessary, otherwise Nations will duck in and out of their Treaties without due respect for their consequences. I think it really will do this Country good to live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least. One benefit of Brexit may be that we learn that when serious questions of international trade and diplomatic relations are put to us, we take them seriously and don't allow ourselves to be misled by fibs on the side of a bus and elsewhere. (And the fibs were not on all sides, of course, as we all know.)
It's a tough learning process but imagine if Remain had won narrowly. The issue would never have gone away. Now it looks like a large majority understand what the right answer was, and why.
It's progress of sorts.
The ‘right’ answer? Let’s wait a bit longer perhaps. Covid and the Ukraine war have muddied the waters massively, so an opinion poll with no defined meaning for rejoin is utterly pointless, and assuming that voters have learned a lesson is just remainer hubris.
FWIW I voted remain and wish we had stayed in. But just as some blamed the EU for all our ills before 2016, some are now blaming Brexit for everything after. Neither position was or is correct.
A board appointed by De Santis has voted to abolish gender studies at Floridian college. Can’t tell you how conflicted I feel about that.
What's the conflict? Do you think there's nothing interesting to study related to gender? That there's nothing to learn from studying literature or history from the perspective of gender? That there's no work to be done in putting women back in the picture when they've been systematically erased or belittled by male scholarship for centuries? Genuine questions. I don't see this move as anything other than an attack on scholarship and women from an ignoramus, misogynist, power-crazed politician. It's a sad reflection on where the US Right is right now, cancelling everyone who might challenge their power and provide an alternative to Gilead. I don't want to go full Ken Livingstone, but this kind of move is real Nazi territory.
"...Agree with much of this but your post suggests that a democratic decision at one point in time is immutable. The mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fulfilled. We’ve done what the ballot paper said. We would not be reversing that decision (that is, as you say, impossible) but making a new decision. We’ll be joining on, as you say, new terms. Nothing undemocratic about that at all. And the masochism of “make your bed and lie in it” is pragmatically dangerous. Historical attempts to make entire populations suffer for past mistakes have not ended well.
The 1983 referendum in Ireland that introduced the 8th amendment was recently superseded by a new right to abortion. That’s wasn’t undemocratic either. Introducing timescales to these things is artificial."
Not immutable, Doug. In due course, yes, by all means a Nation can and should be prepared to revisit its decisions. But with a major set of Treaties such as those we abandoned, the time scale has to be long. Apart from anything else, it will be decades at least before anyone can say without fear of contradiction that Brexit failed, or was a bad thing. You can even argue that decisions on Sovereignity are almost timeless. In fact if I were to play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I would point to Irish Independence in 1921 as having been a bad thing for that Country in the short and medium term, economically at least. Who would say so now though?
I would also argue that the 'masochism' to which you refer is necessary, otherwise Nations will duck in and out of their Treaties without due respect for their consequences. I think it really will do this Country good to live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least. One benefit of Brexit may be that we learn that when serious questions of international trade and diplomatic relations are put to us, we take them seriously and don't allow ourselves to be misled by fibs on the side of a bus and elsewhere. (And the fibs were not on all sides, of course, as we all know.)
It's a tough learning process but imagine if Remain had won narrowly. The issue would never have gone away. Now it looks like a large majority understand what the right answer was, and why.
It's progress of sorts.
The ‘right’ answer? Let’s wait a bit longer perhaps. Covid and the Ukraine war have muddied the waters massively, so an opinion poll with no defined meaning for rejoin is utterly pointless, and assuming that voters have learned a lesson is just remainer hubris.
FWIW I voted remain and wish we had stayed in. But just as some blamed the EU for all our ills before 2016, some are now blaming Brexit for everything after. Neither position was or is correct.
The choices made after Brexit have made bad things worse. It isn't solely responsible, but it is an accelerant. The petrol, not the fire.
"...Agree with much of this but your post suggests that a democratic decision at one point in time is immutable. The mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fulfilled. We’ve done what the ballot paper said. We would not be reversing that decision (that is, as you say, impossible) but making a new decision. We’ll be joining on, as you say, new terms. Nothing undemocratic about that at all. And the masochism of “make your bed and lie in it” is pragmatically dangerous. Historical attempts to make entire populations suffer for past mistakes have not ended well.
The 1983 referendum in Ireland that introduced the 8th amendment was recently superseded by a new right to abortion. That’s wasn’t undemocratic either. Introducing timescales to these things is artificial."
Not immutable, Doug. In due course, yes, by all means a Nation can and should be prepared to revisit its decisions. But with a major set of Treaties such as those we abandoned, the time scale has to be long. Apart from anything else, it will be decades at least before anyone can say without fear of contradiction that Brexit failed, or was a bad thing. You can even argue that decisions on Sovereignity are almost timeless. In fact if I were to play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I would point to Irish Independence in 1921 as having been a bad thing for that Country in the short and medium term, economically at least. Who would say so now though?
I would also argue that the 'masochism' to which you refer is necessary, otherwise Nations will duck in and out of their Treaties without due respect for their consequences. I think it really will do this Country good to live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least. One benefit of Brexit may be that we learn that when serious questions of international trade and diplomatic relations are put to us, we take them seriously and don't allow ourselves to be misled by fibs on the side of a bus and elsewhere. (And the fibs were not on all sides, of course, as we all know.)
It's a tough learning process but imagine if Remain had won narrowly. The issue would never have gone away. Now it looks like a large majority understand what the right answer was, and why.
It's progress of sorts.
It's a view I suppose, but oddly English. I don't see the SNP saying the Scottish electorate would have to "...live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least".
Even the (West) Germans only had to live with the consequences of Hitler for less than a decade before everyone decided it was best to be nice to them and largely pretend it had never happened. It was considered best for all concerned if they were rehabilitated pronto - it was only 20 years from the rise of Hitler to the creation of the proto-EEC, of which W Germany was a key member, and only 8 years after the end of the war. Similarly story with the Italians. Making a country wear sackcloth and ashes for past mistakes doesn't work.
"...Agree with much of this but your post suggests that a democratic decision at one point in time is immutable. The mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fulfilled. We’ve done what the ballot paper said. We would not be reversing that decision (that is, as you say, impossible) but making a new decision. We’ll be joining on, as you say, new terms. Nothing undemocratic about that at all. And the masochism of “make your bed and lie in it” is pragmatically dangerous. Historical attempts to make entire populations suffer for past mistakes have not ended well.
The 1983 referendum in Ireland that introduced the 8th amendment was recently superseded by a new right to abortion. That’s wasn’t undemocratic either. Introducing timescales to these things is artificial."
Not immutable, Doug. In due course, yes, by all means a Nation can and should be prepared to revisit its decisions. But with a major set of Treaties such as those we abandoned, the time scale has to be long. Apart from anything else, it will be decades at least before anyone can say without fear of contradiction that Brexit failed, or was a bad thing. You can even argue that decisions on Sovereignity are almost timeless. In fact if I were to play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I would point to Irish Independence in 1921 as having been a bad thing for that Country in the short and medium term, economically at least. Who would say so now though?
I would also argue that the 'masochism' to which you refer is necessary, otherwise Nations will duck in and out of their Treaties without due respect for their consequences. I think it really will do this Country good to live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least. One benefit of Brexit may be that we learn that when serious questions of international trade and diplomatic relations are put to us, we take them seriously and don't allow ourselves to be misled by fibs on the side of a bus and elsewhere. (And the fibs were not on all sides, of course, as we all know.)
It's a tough learning process but imagine if Remain had won narrowly. The issue would never have gone away. Now it looks like a large majority understand what the right answer was, and why.
It's progress of sorts.
It's a view I suppose, but oddly English. I don't see the SNP saying the Scottish electorate would have to "...live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least".
Even the (West) Germans only had to live with the consequences of Hitler for less than a decade before everyone decided it was best to be nice to them and largely pretend it had never happened. It was considered best for all concerned if they were rehabilitated pronto - it was only 20 years from the rise of Hitler to the creation of the proto-EEC, of which W Germany was a key member, and only 8 years after the end of the war. Similarly story with the Italians. Making a country wear sackcloth and ashes for past mistakes doesn't work.
Sackcloth and ashes is a bit strong. It's not as if Brexit is the end of civilisation as we know it. We could even yet make it work, after a fashion. Who knows? The fact you and I think it was effing daft doesn't make it entirely unworkable. Life is more mutable than that.
Anyway I don't know about you but I kind of enjoy a little Schandenfreude. Please allow me that.
"...Agree with much of this but your post suggests that a democratic decision at one point in time is immutable. The mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fulfilled. We’ve done what the ballot paper said. We would not be reversing that decision (that is, as you say, impossible) but making a new decision. We’ll be joining on, as you say, new terms. Nothing undemocratic about that at all. And the masochism of “make your bed and lie in it” is pragmatically dangerous. Historical attempts to make entire populations suffer for past mistakes have not ended well.
The 1983 referendum in Ireland that introduced the 8th amendment was recently superseded by a new right to abortion. That’s wasn’t undemocratic either. Introducing timescales to these things is artificial."
Not immutable, Doug. In due course, yes, by all means a Nation can and should be prepared to revisit its decisions. But with a major set of Treaties such as those we abandoned, the time scale has to be long. Apart from anything else, it will be decades at least before anyone can say without fear of contradiction that Brexit failed, or was a bad thing. You can even argue that decisions on Sovereignity are almost timeless. In fact if I were to play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I would point to Irish Independence in 1921 as having been a bad thing for that Country in the short and medium term, economically at least. Who would say so now though?
I would also argue that the 'masochism' to which you refer is necessary, otherwise Nations will duck in and out of their Treaties without due respect for their consequences. I think it really will do this Country good to live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least. One benefit of Brexit may be that we learn that when serious questions of international trade and diplomatic relations are put to us, we take them seriously and don't allow ourselves to be misled by fibs on the side of a bus and elsewhere. (And the fibs were not on all sides, of course, as we all know.)
It's a tough learning process but imagine if Remain had won narrowly. The issue would never have gone away. Now it looks like a large majority understand what the right answer was, and why.
It's progress of sorts.
It's a view I suppose, but oddly English. I don't see the SNP saying the Scottish electorate would have to "...live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least".
Even the (West) Germans only had to live with the consequences of Hitler for less than a decade before everyone decided it was best to be nice to them and largely pretend it had never happened. It was considered best for all concerned if they were rehabilitated pronto - it was only 20 years from the rise of Hitler to the creation of the proto-EEC, of which W Germany was a key member, and only 8 years after the end of the war. Similarly story with the Italians. Making a country wear sackcloth and ashes for past mistakes doesn't work.
Sackcloth and ashes is a bit strong. It's not as if Brexit is the end of civilisation as we know it. We could even yet make it work, after a fashion. Who knows? The fact you and I think it was effing daft doesn't make it entirely unworkable. Life is more mutable than that.
Anyway I don't know about you but I kind of enjoy a little Schandenfreude. Please allow me that.
We could make it workable. The challenge is that those things we'd need to do are seen as treason by the remaining hardcore brexiteers...
Nice little video by a promising YouTuber called "Alexander the ok" about risk assessing Virgin Galactic's spacecraft. Not as obvious as you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5XEZfzoxvY . Duration: 1hr 4mins
You are going to give yourself dissociative identity disorder with this stupid shit.
You think I don’t have it already?!
I wonder if the guys driving the Rolls Royce SUVs in Chernivtsi were making all their money out of “enabling” draft dodging. The city is 30km from an obscure and relatively unpoliced border
"...Agree with much of this but your post suggests that a democratic decision at one point in time is immutable. The mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fulfilled. We’ve done what the ballot paper said. We would not be reversing that decision (that is, as you say, impossible) but making a new decision. We’ll be joining on, as you say, new terms. Nothing undemocratic about that at all. And the masochism of “make your bed and lie in it” is pragmatically dangerous. Historical attempts to make entire populations suffer for past mistakes have not ended well.
The 1983 referendum in Ireland that introduced the 8th amendment was recently superseded by a new right to abortion. That’s wasn’t undemocratic either. Introducing timescales to these things is artificial."
Not immutable, Doug. In due course, yes, by all means a Nation can and should be prepared to revisit its decisions. But with a major set of Treaties such as those we abandoned, the time scale has to be long. Apart from anything else, it will be decades at least before anyone can say without fear of contradiction that Brexit failed, or was a bad thing. You can even argue that decisions on Sovereignity are almost timeless. In fact if I were to play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I would point to Irish Independence in 1921 as having been a bad thing for that Country in the short and medium term, economically at least. Who would say so now though?
I would also argue that the 'masochism' to which you refer is necessary, otherwise Nations will duck in and out of their Treaties without due respect for their consequences. I think it really will do this Country good to live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least. One benefit of Brexit may be that we learn that when serious questions of international trade and diplomatic relations are put to us, we take them seriously and don't allow ourselves to be misled by fibs on the side of a bus and elsewhere. (And the fibs were not on all sides, of course, as we all know.)
It's a tough learning process but imagine if Remain had won narrowly. The issue would never have gone away. Now it looks like a large majority understand what the right answer was, and why.
It's progress of sorts.
It's a view I suppose, but oddly English. I don't see the SNP saying the Scottish electorate would have to "...live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least".
Even the (West) Germans only had to live with the consequences of Hitler for less than a decade before everyone decided it was best to be nice to them and largely pretend it had never happened. It was considered best for all concerned if they were rehabilitated pronto - it was only 20 years from the rise of Hitler to the creation of the proto-EEC, of which W Germany was a key member, and only 8 years after the end of the war. Similarly story with the Italians. Making a country wear sackcloth and ashes for past mistakes doesn't work.
Sackcloth and ashes is a bit strong. It's not as if Brexit is the end of civilisation as we know it. We could even yet make it work, after a fashion. Who knows? The fact you and I think it was effing daft doesn't make it entirely unworkable. Life is more mutable than that.
Anyway I don't know about you but I kind of enjoy a little Schandenfreude. Please allow me that.
We could make it workable. The challenge is that those things we'd need to do are seen as treason by the remaining hardcore brexiteers...
Yeah, but for some reason 'hardcore Brexiteers' are becoming harder to find.
Nice little video by a promising YouTuber called "Alexander the ok" about risk assessing Virgin Galactic's spacecraft. Not as obvious as you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5XEZfzoxvY . Duration: 1hr 4mins
Off the top of my head
- Unstable burn of the motor, hacked with a number of bodges. - Totally manual flight control with few safety interlocks. - Unable to test fly unmanned - Carrier aircraft designed for few very uses - significant structural damage occurs after only a few flights. Composite cracking... - Main propellant is more dangerous in bulk than VG understood. This killed several engineers. - Vehicle has several interesting instability modes in flight.
“You have conquered, and I yield. Yet, henceforward art thou also dead—dead to the World, to Heaven and to Hope! In me didst thou exist—and, in my death, see by this image, which is thine own, how utterly thou hast murdered thyself.”
“You have conquered, and I yield. Yet, henceforward art thou also dead—dead to the World, to Heaven and to Hope! In me didst thou exist—and, in my death, see by this image, which is thine own, how utterly thou hast murdered thyself.”
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians"
Course I only found this comment in a reply from another PBer, who described themselves as "more pessimistic". Anyone care to guess the name of the poster who was even more wrong than Leon?
I sense several narratives turning for Ukraine. Maybe not in a good way
At the start of the SMO the standard bribe for not getting conscripted was 5k euro, lately it's gone up to 25k. Green t-shirt has to accept a bit of fragrant grease as he is running the most corrupt country in Europe and there's a war on but the press gang were taking the piss.
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians"
Course I only found this comment in a reply from another PBer, who described themselves as "more pessimistic". Anyone care to guess the name of the poster who was even more wrong than Leon?
“You have conquered, and I yield. Yet, henceforward art thou also dead—dead to the World, to Heaven and to Hope! In me didst thou exist—and, in my death, see by this image, which is thine own, how utterly thou hast murdered thyself.”
Thank you for that Poe-faced response.
Hm. You certainly can't call Leon's memoirs and confessions private, though I wouldn't for a moment presume to consider whether he is a justified sinner.
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians"
Course I only found this comment in a reply from another PBer, who described themselves as "more pessimistic". Anyone care to guess the name of the poster who was even more wrong than Leon?
Wait, what, you’re upbraiding me for outlining a possible evolution in the war which I myself considered highly improbable?
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.“
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians"
Course I only found this comment in a reply from another PBer, who described themselves as "more pessimistic". Anyone care to guess the name of the poster who was even more wrong than Leon?
Wait, what, you’re upbraiding me for outlining a possible evolution in the war which I myself considered highly improbable?
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.“
And then you go on to say: "What I can foresee is..."
Leon has been predicting a nuclear escalation and various forms of calamity for Ukraine all the way through. He said the Ukrainians were going to freeze over the winter. It's been doom and gloom all the way through.
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians"
Course I only found this comment in a reply from another PBer, who described themselves as "more pessimistic". Anyone care to guess the name of the poster who was even more wrong than Leon?
Wait, what, you’re upbraiding me for outlining a possible evolution in the war which I myself considered highly improbable?
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.“
And then you go on to say: "What I can foresee is..."
And did that happen?
And I then go on to say
"What I can foresee is........ blah blah..... and that is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things."
So I say "this is a bad thing that may happen, but is still REALLY unlikely"
I sense several narratives turning for Ukraine. Maybe not in a good way
At the start of the SMO the standard bribe for not getting conscripted was 5k euro, lately it's gone up to 25k. Green t-shirt has to accept a bit of fragrant grease as he is running the most corrupt country in Europe and there's a war on but the press gang were taking the piss.
It was always confusing why the EU and UK offered to take in deserters from Ukraine, but not from Russia. A subject no one can discuss.
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians"
Course I only found this comment in a reply from another PBer, who described themselves as "more pessimistic". Anyone care to guess the name of the poster who was even more wrong than Leon?
Wait, what, you’re upbraiding me for outlining a possible evolution in the war which I myself considered highly improbable?
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.“
What is noticeable is that the BBC are reporting that all is not well (the Russian advances, the problems with bribes paid to avoid conscription, etc).
I sense several narratives turning for Ukraine. Maybe not in a good way
At the start of the SMO the standard bribe for not getting conscripted was 5k euro, lately it's gone up to 25k. Green t-shirt has to accept a bit of fragrant grease as he is running the most corrupt country in Europe and there's a war on but the press gang were taking the piss.
It was always confusing why the EU and UK offered to take in deserters from Ukraine, but not from Russia. A subject no one can discuss.
There are plenty of Russians in the UK and EU pretending to be Ukrainian. You can buy a dead Ukrainian's identity on Telegram for about 2k euros.
Leon has been predicting a nuclear escalation and various forms of calamity for Ukraine all the way through. He said the Ukrainians were going to freeze over the winter. It's been doom and gloom all the way through.
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
This is tiresome
Again we were discussing possiblities. I foresaw that Putin's new tactic (as it then was) - of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian infra, might have some significant success
This was acknowledged as true, even at the time, even by the Ukes
"Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity"
We now know they came really close to doing this: evacuating Kyiv
You seem to want every PB-er to say "Yay Ukraine is doing fantastically well" all the time and at every juncture. That is not commentary, it is cheerleading
In lieu of yet another thread becoming dominated by @SeanT or @Leon ....
I wonder if Sunak's only hope is to disassociate himself from the Conservative Party much as Johnson did last time when he sounded like an opposition leader criticising the Government of which he was Prime Minister.
Sunak has to play the "vote for me, not my party" card for all its worth - the "Conservative" brand is electoral hemlock yet Sunak himself, pace Major, may be able to convince more people to vote for him as PM - his personal ratings run ahead of the party.
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Can one of the teachers here tell us if this is really a story.
SFAICS, in any year all results are relative to each other, and top universities/highly popular courses are not going to leave places empty. So who, if anyone is disadvantaged?
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Have to seen this from Guardian? You are finally in the money!!!
"English Heritage alone will receive £11.2m, which will enable a “groundbreaking apprenticeship programme” that will “save the skill of flintworking from extinction”."
In lieu of yet another thread becoming dominated by @SeanT or @Leon ....
I wonder if Sunak's only hope is to disassociate himself from the Conservative Party much as Johnson did last time when he sounded like an opposition leader criticising the Government of which he was Prime Minister.
Sunak has to play the "vote for me, not my party" card for all its worth - the "Conservative" brand is electoral hemlock yet Sunak himself, pace Major, may be able to convince more people to vote for him as PM - his personal ratings run ahead of the party.
Great if he had any personality for personal ratings to be about. There is so little to him, there is nothing even to caricature. Not even the bare minimum shirt tucked in to underpants, teasmade, frozen peas of John Major. Private Eye has no sort of handle on him, cartoonists just make him look Indian. He makes Starmer look substantial.
Can one of the teachers here tell us if this is really a story.
SFAICS, in any year all results are relative to each other, and top universities/highly popular courses are not going to leave places empty. So who, if anyone is disadvantaged?
It’s the students who “benefited” from teacher assessment in the 2 previous years who lost out. Throughout their lives people will look askance at their marks. In many cases this will be unfair. One of them is my son.
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Poor old BJ, not quite rich enough for a 2nd (3rd, 4th?) home in Tuscany. Don’t think shite like this will do it for him.
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Poor old BJ, not quite rich enough for a 2nd (3rd, 4th?) home in Tuscany. Don’t think shite like this will do it for him.
I've said before: I find it hard to believe the Mail are paying seven figures for his columns of whimsy. But, who knows
The mystery of Vivek Ramaswamy’s rapid rise in the polls https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/12/vivek-ramaswamy-polls-rise-00110937 Two new polls of Republican primary voters released on Thursday showed former President Donald Trump in first place by a wide margin. But what was startling was who came in second.
The first shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in his usual spot far behind Trump. The other shows 38-year-old first-time political candidate Vivek Ramaswamy edging out DeSantis for second place...
Can one of the teachers here tell us if this is really a story.
SFAICS, in any year all results are relative to each other, and top universities/highly popular courses are not going to leave places empty. So who, if anyone is disadvantaged?
The results used to be relative to each other before Gibb and Spielman buggered about with exams. Since then they have meant to be close to strict criteria.
That's never actually happened due to Covid, but to give you some idea, if we'd been marking consistently for the last four years, B grades in 2022 would have got Ds based on the 2019 grade boundaries (which for several subjects was the only year the reformed GCSEs and A-levels were actually sat).
The real story underlying all this is the exam reform was appallingly botched and we went in without workable marking criteria. But somehow that's not filtering out.
The mystery of Vivek Ramaswamy’s rapid rise in the polls https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/12/vivek-ramaswamy-polls-rise-00110937 Two new polls of Republican primary voters released on Thursday showed former President Donald Trump in first place by a wide margin. But what was startling was who came in second.
The first shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in his usual spot far behind Trump. The other shows 38-year-old first-time political candidate Vivek Ramaswamy edging out DeSantis for second place...
Ramaswarmy is getting popular because he’s actually been putting himself out there, doing a lot of events, podcasts, and long-form interviews, and he appears to have a number of ideas that appeal to the Republican base such as taking an axe to the federal public sector.
That said, the only other candidate making a similar effort is RFK Jr, who’s widely derided as a no-hoper.
In lieu of yet another thread becoming dominated by @SeanT or @Leon ....
I wonder if Sunak's only hope is to disassociate himself from the Conservative Party much as Johnson did last time when he sounded like an opposition leader criticising the Government of which he was Prime Minister.
Sunak has to play the "vote for me, not my party" card for all its worth - the "Conservative" brand is electoral hemlock yet Sunak himself, pace Major, may be able to convince more people to vote for him as PM - his personal ratings run ahead of the party.
Great if he had any personality for personal ratings to be about. There is so little to him, there is nothing even to caricature. Not even the bare minimum shirt tucked in to underpants, teasmade, frozen peas of John Major. Private Eye has no sort of handle on him, cartoonists just make him look Indian. He makes Starmer look substantial.
In lieu of yet another thread becoming dominated by @SeanT or @Leon ....
I wonder if Sunak's only hope is to disassociate himself from the Conservative Party much as Johnson did last time when he sounded like an opposition leader criticising the Government of which he was Prime Minister.
Sunak has to play the "vote for me, not my party" card for all its worth - the "Conservative" brand is electoral hemlock yet Sunak himself, pace Major, may be able to convince more people to vote for him as PM - his personal ratings run ahead of the party.
Great if he had any personality for personal ratings to be about. There is so little to him, there is nothing even to caricature. Not even the bare minimum shirt tucked in to underpants, teasmade, frozen peas of John Major. Private Eye has no sort of handle on him, cartoonists just make him look Indian. He makes Starmer look substantial.
Does shameless short term self interest and utter contempt for the planet count as character?
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Individually they mean nothing and together they mean nothing.
I remember when you were hailing ISIS as the greatest propaganda genius since Goebbels by blowing up some ancient temples in Syria.
But where are ISIS, or Goebbels for that matter, now ?
Ukraine will be sorted on the battlefield as wars always have been.
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Poor old BJ, not quite rich enough for a 2nd (3rd, 4th?) home in Tuscany. Don’t think shite like this will do it for him.
I've said before: I find it hard to believe the Mail are paying seven figures for his columns of whimsy. But, who knows
Probly suits the DM & BJ for it to be the rumour though.
Can one of the teachers here tell us if this is really a story.
SFAICS, in any year all results are relative to each other, and top universities/highly popular courses are not going to leave places empty. So who, if anyone is disadvantaged?
It’s the students who “benefited” from teacher assessment in the 2 previous years who lost out. Throughout their lives people will look askance at their marks. In many cases this will be unfair. One of them is my son.
In the past several decades I've never known what A-level grades my colleagues had. They only matter for the summer you are trying to get a university place.
Nice little video by a promising YouTuber called "Alexander the ok" about risk assessing Virgin Galactic's spacecraft. Not as obvious as you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5XEZfzoxvY . Duration: 1hr 4mins
Off the top of my head
- Unstable burn of the motor, hacked with a number of bodges. - Totally manual flight control with few safety interlocks. - Unable to test fly unmanned - Carrier aircraft designed for few very uses - significant structural damage occurs after only a few flights. Composite cracking... - Main propellant is more dangerous in bulk than VG understood. This killed several engineers. - Vehicle has several interesting instability modes in flight.
Will watch to see how many I missed.
How about:
The whole thing is a fecking pointless self-indulgent vanity project, and instead of pissing there money away on "going into space", those supporting it could use their unwanted cash to fund something good in this world.
Can one of the teachers here tell us if this is really a story.
SFAICS, in any year all results are relative to each other, and top universities/highly popular courses are not going to leave places empty. So who, if anyone is disadvantaged?
It’s the students who “benefited” from teacher assessment in the 2 previous years who lost out. Throughout their lives people will look askance at their marks. In many cases this will be unfair. One of them is my son.
Nobody will look askance at their A-level grades. The only thing that will matter is which university they go to and their progression from there (and in rare cases the school they went to). The only people who still judge by their A-levels compared to others are those where the A-levels were the peak of their life achievement.
If you are a 19 year old and you look down your nose at a 50 year old for their A-level results then it shows you are stupid anyway, despite whatever grades you have, as not comparing like with like and not having the awareness of that.
The mystery of Vivek Ramaswamy’s rapid rise in the polls https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/12/vivek-ramaswamy-polls-rise-00110937 Two new polls of Republican primary voters released on Thursday showed former President Donald Trump in first place by a wide margin. But what was startling was who came in second.
The first shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in his usual spot far behind Trump. The other shows 38-year-old first-time political candidate Vivek Ramaswamy edging out DeSantis for second place...
Ramaswarmy is getting popular because he’s actually been putting himself out there, doing a lot of events, podcasts, and long-form interviews, and he appears to have a number of ideas that appeal to the Republican base such as taking an axe to the federal public sector.
That said, the only other candidate making a similar effort is RFK Jr, who’s widely derided as a no-hoper.
Nice little video by a promising YouTuber called "Alexander the ok" about risk assessing Virgin Galactic's spacecraft. Not as obvious as you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5XEZfzoxvY . Duration: 1hr 4mins
Off the top of my head
- Unstable burn of the motor, hacked with a number of bodges. - Totally manual flight control with few safety interlocks. - Unable to test fly unmanned - Carrier aircraft designed for few very uses - significant structural damage occurs after only a few flights. Composite cracking... - Main propellant is more dangerous in bulk than VG understood. This killed several engineers. - Vehicle has several interesting instability modes in flight.
Will watch to see how many I missed.
How about:
The whole thing is a fecking pointless self-indulgent vanity project, and instead of pissing there money away on "going into space", those supporting it could use their unwanted cash to fund something good in this world.
Well, there’s that. But consider the value of learning from others mistakes. In engineering terms VG is a fascinating example of doing innovation wrong.
Leon has been predicting a nuclear escalation and various forms of calamity for Ukraine all the way through. He said the Ukrainians were going to freeze over the winter. It's been doom and gloom all the way through.
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
This is tiresome
Again we were discussing possiblities. I foresaw that Putin's new tactic (as it then was) - of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian infra, might have some significant success
This was acknowledged as true, even at the time, even by the Ukes
"Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity"
We now know they came really close to doing this: evacuating Kyiv
You seem to want every PB-er to say "Yay Ukraine is doing fantastically well" all the time and at every juncture. That is not commentary, it is cheerleading
That's not what I want. I expect that when people make mistakes and errors of judgement that they will reflect on them and correct themselves.
For example, I repeated a report from someone on twitter a while ago who I had previously found reliable, and it subsequently proved that they had overstated a situation. I no longer use that source of information because it gives a misleadingly positive view of the situation for Ukraine.
But you are a stuck record on Ukraine, and you are incapable of self-correcting, and your constant doom-bleating is tiresome.
Leon has been predicting a nuclear escalation and various forms of calamity for Ukraine all the way through. He said the Ukrainians were going to freeze over the winter. It's been doom and gloom all the way through.
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
This is tiresome
Again we were discussing possiblities. I foresaw that Putin's new tactic (as it then was) - of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian infra, might have some significant success
This was acknowledged as true, even at the time, even by the Ukes
"Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity"
We now know they came really close to doing this: evacuating Kyiv
You seem to want every PB-er to say "Yay Ukraine is doing fantastically well" all the time and at every juncture. That is not commentary, it is cheerleading
That's not what I want. I expect that when people make mistakes and errors of judgement that they will reflect on them and correct themselves.
For example, I repeated a report from someone on twitter a while ago who I had previously found reliable, and it subsequently proved that they had overstated a situation. I no longer use that source of information because it gives a misleadingly positive view of the situation for Ukraine.
But you are a stuck record on Ukraine, and you are incapable of self-correcting, and your constant doom-bleating is tiresome.
Reminds me of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard -who predicted 497 of the last 1 financial crashes.
Leon has been predicting a nuclear escalation and various forms of calamity for Ukraine all the way through. He said the Ukrainians were going to freeze over the winter. It's been doom and gloom all the way through.
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
This is tiresome
Again we were discussing possiblities. I foresaw that Putin's new tactic (as it then was) - of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian infra, might have some significant success
This was acknowledged as true, even at the time, even by the Ukes
"Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity"
We now know they came really close to doing this: evacuating Kyiv
You seem to want every PB-er to say "Yay Ukraine is doing fantastically well" all the time and at every juncture. That is not commentary, it is cheerleading
That's not what I want. I expect that when people make mistakes and errors of judgement that they will reflect on them and correct themselves.
For example, I repeated a report from someone on twitter a while ago who I had previously found reliable, and it subsequently proved that they had overstated a situation. I no longer use that source of information because it gives a misleadingly positive view of the situation for Ukraine.
But you are a stuck record on Ukraine, and you are incapable of self-correcting, and your constant doom-bleating is tiresome.
"... I expect that when people make mistakes and errors of judgement that they will reflect on them and correct themselves."
You must be desperately disappointed at the weather forecasters in this country then.
Leon has been predicting a nuclear escalation and various forms of calamity for Ukraine all the way through. He said the Ukrainians were going to freeze over the winter. It's been doom and gloom all the way through.
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
This is tiresome
Again we were discussing possiblities. I foresaw that Putin's new tactic (as it then was) - of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian infra, might have some significant success
This was acknowledged as true, even at the time, even by the Ukes
"Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity"
We now know they came really close to doing this: evacuating Kyiv
You seem to want every PB-er to say "Yay Ukraine is doing fantastically well" all the time and at every juncture. That is not commentary, it is cheerleading
That's not what I want. I expect that when people make mistakes and errors of judgement that they will reflect on them and correct themselves.
For example, I repeated a report from someone on twitter a while ago who I had previously found reliable, and it subsequently proved that they had overstated a situation. I no longer use that source of information because it gives a misleadingly positive view of the situation for Ukraine.
But you are a stuck record on Ukraine, and you are incapable of self-correcting, and your constant doom-bleating is tiresome.
Reminds me of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard -who predicted 497 of the last 1 financial crashes.
AE-P is an only slightly more Establishment version of the Zerohedge guy, constantly predicting that there will be doom tomorrow.
I sense several narratives turning for Ukraine. Maybe not in a good way
How many times have you said this before?
Maybe not ever?
I’ve mentioned before when I’ve felt the war is going as well as we’d like. This is different
This seems like a larger shift
And, just for the record, I’d be delighted if Ukraine rolled every Russian soldier back to the pre-2014 frontiers
Ukraine made some tactical significant gains yesterday. They are grinding away at the Russian defences
Yes it’s taking longer than expected, but there’s been slow advances towards Chernihivka in the past few weeks, from where they can take out the railway line to Crimea. The advances of the last few days, put parts of that railway line close to HIMARS range.
(Grey shading shows the extent of territory previously-held by the invaders)
Leon has been predicting a nuclear escalation and various forms of calamity for Ukraine all the way through. He said the Ukrainians were going to freeze over the winter. It's been doom and gloom all the way through.
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
This is tiresome
Again we were discussing possiblities. I foresaw that Putin's new tactic (as it then was) - of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian infra, might have some significant success
This was acknowledged as true, even at the time, even by the Ukes
"Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity"
We now know they came really close to doing this: evacuating Kyiv
You seem to want every PB-er to say "Yay Ukraine is doing fantastically well" all the time and at every juncture. That is not commentary, it is cheerleading
That's not what I want. I expect that when people make mistakes and errors of judgement that they will reflect on them and correct themselves.
For example, I repeated a report from someone on twitter a while ago who I had previously found reliable, and it subsequently proved that they had overstated a situation. I no longer use that source of information because it gives a misleadingly positive view of the situation for Ukraine.
But you are a stuck record on Ukraine, and you are incapable of self-correcting, and your constant doom-bleating is tiresome.
Reminds me of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard -who predicted 497 of the last 1 financial crashes.
AE-P is an only slightly more Establishment version of the Zerohedge guy, constantly predicting that there will be doom tomorrow.
That grossly mischaracterises Zerohedge. They predict the next doom will occur in the next 30 minutes. Unless you INVEST! NOW!
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Individually they mean nothing and together they mean nothing.
I remember when you were hailing ISIS as the greatest propaganda genius since Goebbels by blowing up some ancient temples in Syria.
But where are ISIS, or Goebbels for that matter, now ?
Ukraine will be sorted on the battlefield as wars always have been.
I disagree
Individually they mean nothing
The comparison is telling: Russia blisters and lies in an aggressive way. Ukraine confirms zelensky’s ownership in a transparent manner
PB: After 8 idyllic years of family holidays in Cornwall, the consensus is that the time has come to try somewhere else. But where? I'm open to going abroad, but flying a family of five in the school holidays is prohibitively expensive and every time I've been to France it's been disappointing. Anyone had any good family holidays in the Netherlands or Germany (or anywhere else apart from Cornwall)? Kids will range from 14 to 9.
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Individually they mean nothing and together they mean nothing.
I remember when you were hailing ISIS as the greatest propaganda genius since Goebbels by blowing up some ancient temples in Syria.
But where are ISIS, or Goebbels for that matter, now ?
Ukraine will be sorted on the battlefield as wars always have been.
I disagree
Individually they mean nothing
The comparison is telling: Russia blisters and lies in an aggressive way. Ukraine confirms zelensky’s ownership in a transparent manner
Also... Zelenskyy has had a long career in comedy and acting, branching out into TV and media. He's a rich man from that alone. Perhaps there is a stink of corruption out there, but how many of our top comedians have many nice houses? Hint: it's a fair few of them.
I sense several narratives turning for Ukraine. Maybe not in a good way
How many times have you said this before?
Maybe not ever?
I’ve mentioned before when I’ve felt the war is going as well as we’d like. This is different
This seems like a larger shift
And, just for the record, I’d be delighted if Ukraine rolled every Russian soldier back to the pre-2014 frontiers
Ukraine made some tactical significant gains yesterday. They are grinding away at the Russian defences
Yes it’s taking longer than expected, but there’s been slow advances towards Chernihivka in the past few weeks, from where they can take out the railway line to Crimea. The advances of the last few days, put parts of that railway line close to HIMARS range.
(Grey shading shows the extent of territory previously-held by the invaders)
When I talk the narrative turning on multiple levels, I mean little straws in the wind. Individually they mean nothing, but together? First that brilliant Spectator article, then the Guardian article about Ukrainian corruption, and also today I saw this in the FT
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Individually they mean nothing and together they mean nothing.
I remember when you were hailing ISIS as the greatest propaganda genius since Goebbels by blowing up some ancient temples in Syria.
But where are ISIS, or Goebbels for that matter, now ?
Ukraine will be sorted on the battlefield as wars always have been.
I disagree
Individually they mean nothing
The comparison is telling: Russia blisters and lies in an aggressive way. Ukraine confirms zelensky’s ownership in a transparent manner
Also... Zelenskyy has had a long career in comedy and acting, branching out into TV and media. He's a rich man from that alone. Perhaps there is a stink of corruption out there, but how many of our top comedians have many nice houses? Hint: it's a fair few of them.
I thought it interesting that when a fake picture of a "Zelensky owned house" was put on Twitter etc a little while ago (picture copied from a sale website), the picture chosen was of a house that would be considered about right for low-to-medium level Congress criter in the US.
PB: After 8 idyllic years of family holidays in Cornwall, the consensus is that the time has come to try somewhere else. But where? I'm open to going abroad, but flying a family of five in the school holidays is prohibitively expensive and every time I've been to France it's been disappointing. Anyone had any good family holidays in the Netherlands or Germany (or anywhere else apart from Cornwall)? Kids will range from 14 to 9.
If you *can* avoid flying, it would be amazing. Have you considered going up to the Peaks or the Lakes? Depending on how old your kids are there are loads of family days out, things to do if wet, adventure.activities etc.
Leon has been predicting a nuclear escalation and various forms of calamity for Ukraine all the way through. He said the Ukrainians were going to freeze over the winter. It's been doom and gloom all the way through.
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
This is tiresome
Again we were discussing possiblities. I foresaw that Putin's new tactic (as it then was) - of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian infra, might have some significant success
This was acknowledged as true, even at the time, even by the Ukes
"Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity"
We now know they came really close to doing this: evacuating Kyiv
You seem to want every PB-er to say "Yay Ukraine is doing fantastically well" all the time and at every juncture. That is not commentary, it is cheerleading
That's not what I want. I expect that when people make mistakes and errors of judgement that they will reflect on them and correct themselves.
For example, I repeated a report from someone on twitter a while ago who I had previously found reliable, and it subsequently proved that they had overstated a situation. I no longer use that source of information because it gives a misleadingly positive view of the situation for Ukraine.
But you are a stuck record on Ukraine, and you are incapable of self-correcting, and your constant doom-bleating is tiresome.
Reminds me of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard -who predicted 497 of the last 1 financial crashes.
AE-P is an only slightly more Establishment version of the Zerohedge guy, constantly predicting that there will be doom tomorrow.
Both AE-P and Zerohedge remove old* articles from the Web.
* as in old articles that did not stand the test of time
The thing about this doom-and-gloom about Ukraine is this: it is exactly what Putin wants. In fact, it's his main (and perhaps only) hope. He *wants* the west to turn its back on Ukraine. For its supporters to grow weary and think: "Let's just let Russia have what it has."
Which would be a disaster for Ukraine and, sadly, us as well. It's not the easy answer.
PB: After 8 idyllic years of family holidays in Cornwall, the consensus is that the time has come to try somewhere else. But where? I'm open to going abroad, but flying a family of five in the school holidays is prohibitively expensive and every time I've been to France it's been disappointing. Anyone had any good family holidays in the Netherlands or Germany (or anywhere else apart from Cornwall)? Kids will range from 14 to 9.
Have you thought about Sweden? There should be low cost flights there?
I sense several narratives turning for Ukraine. Maybe not in a good way
How many times have you said this before?
Maybe not ever?
I’ve mentioned before when I’ve felt the war is going as well as we’d like. This is different
This seems like a larger shift
And, just for the record, I’d be delighted if Ukraine rolled every Russian soldier back to the pre-2014 frontiers
Ukraine made some tactical significant gains yesterday. They are grinding away at the Russian defences
Yes it’s taking longer than expected, but there’s been slow advances towards Chernihivka in the past few weeks, from where they can take out the railway line to Crimea. The advances of the last few days, put parts of that railway line close to HIMARS range.
(Grey shading shows the extent of territory previously-held by the invaders)
It is notable that a number of publications - like the NYTimes - that had been pretty pessimistic about the Ukrainian offensive have turned more positive recently.
The Saturday afternoon open thread – politicalbetting.com
Comments
Four teams left. All with a real chance of winning. Maybe AUS favourites as home team?
"...Agree with much of this but your post suggests that a democratic decision at one point in time is immutable. The mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fulfilled. We’ve done what the ballot paper said. We would not be reversing that decision (that is, as you say, impossible) but making a new decision. We’ll be joining on, as you say, new terms. Nothing undemocratic about that at all. And the masochism of “make your bed and lie in it” is pragmatically dangerous. Historical attempts to make entire populations suffer for past mistakes have not ended well.
The 1983 referendum in Ireland that introduced the 8th amendment was recently superseded by a new right to abortion. That’s wasn’t undemocratic either. Introducing timescales to these things is artificial."
Not immutable, Doug. In due course, yes, by all means a Nation can and should be prepared to revisit its decisions. But with a major set of Treaties such as those we abandoned, the time scale has to be long. Apart from anything else, it will be decades at least before anyone can say without fear of contradiction that Brexit failed, or was a bad thing. You can even argue that decisions on Sovereignity are almost timeless. In fact if I were to play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I would point to Irish Independence in 1921 as having been a bad thing for that Country in the short and medium term, economically at least. Who would say so now though?
I would also argue that the 'masochism' to which you refer is necessary, otherwise Nations will duck in and out of their Treaties without due respect for their consequences. I think it really will do this Country good to live through the consequences of its decisions for some considerable time, decades at least. One benefit of Brexit may be that we learn that when serious questions of international trade and diplomatic relations are put to us, we take them seriously and don't allow ourselves to be misled by fibs on the side of a bus and elsewhere. (And the fibs were not on all sides, of course, as we all know.)
It's a tough learning process but imagine if Remain had won narrowly. The issue would never have gone away. Now it looks like a large majority understand what the right answer was, and why.
It's progress of sorts.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/12-august-air-defense-launches-near-kerch-bridge-
However, these cases will be decided on - ahem - reasons other than academic quality.
I mean, saying they would decide on 'value for money' - could they have been more blatant?
[ducks]
That was also the first step in Hungary’s political control of academic institutions.
FWIW I voted remain and wish we had stayed in. But just as some blamed the EU for all our ills before 2016, some are now blaming Brexit for everything after. Neither position was or is correct.
They did it at Lampeter and ended up in a worse mess (which should have been impossible).
But given their Views there's a risk they might actually shut something important like biology.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-unbearable-strangeness-of-the-ukraine-war/
Even the (West) Germans only had to live with the consequences of Hitler for less than a decade before everyone decided it was best to be nice to them and largely pretend it had never happened. It was considered best for all concerned if they were rehabilitated pronto - it was only 20 years from the rise of Hitler to the creation of the proto-EEC, of which W Germany was a key member, and only 8 years after the end of the war. Similarly story with the Italians. Making a country wear sackcloth and ashes for past mistakes doesn't work.
Anyway I don't know about you but I kind of enjoy a little Schandenfreude. Please allow me that.
I wonder if the guys driving the Rolls Royce SUVs in Chernivtsi were making all their money out of “enabling” draft dodging. The city is 30km from an obscure and relatively unpoliced border
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/11/zelenskiy-sacks-all-military-recruitment-heads-over-frontline-bribes-scandal-ukraine
“Zelenskiy sacks military recruitment heads over frontline bribes scandal
Ukrainian president describes taking of cash from people who want to avoid conscription as form of treachery”
- Unstable burn of the motor, hacked with a number of bodges.
- Totally manual flight control with few safety interlocks.
- Unable to test fly unmanned
- Carrier aircraft designed for few very uses - significant structural damage occurs after only a few flights. Composite cracking...
- Main propellant is more dangerous in bulk than VG understood. This killed several engineers.
- Vehicle has several interesting instability modes in flight.
Will watch to see how many I missed.
“You have conquered, and I yield. Yet, henceforward art thou also dead—dead to the World, to Heaven and to Hope! In me didst thou exist—and, in my death, see by this image, which is thine own, how utterly thou hast murdered thyself.”
I’ve mentioned before when I’ve felt the war is going as well as we’d like. This is different
This seems like a larger shift
And, just for the record, I’d be delighted if Ukraine rolled every Russian soldier back to the pre-2014 frontiers
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.
What I can foresee is a desperate, panicked Putin dropping a small tactical nuke on Lviv or Odessa, to regain the initiative, shock the world into fear, and quickly end the war on better terms for Russia. He would expect no nuclear reply from the west and he would likely be right
That is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things.
Pity the Ukrainians"
Course I only found this comment in a reply from another PBer, who described themselves as "more pessimistic". Anyone care to guess the name of the poster who was even more wrong than Leon?
"I am certainly NOT saying “this will escalate into nuclear war” Far from it. I still consider that highly unlikely.“
And did that happen?
Does he not ever stop to wonder why he has been wrong so many times in the past?
Does the Bureau which sends them think we’re beyond conversion?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1QywDPkDjg
"What I can foresee is........ blah blah..... and that is very far from “nuclear war”, and even this limited scenario is at the less probable pessimistic end of things."
So I say "this is a bad thing that may happen, but is still REALLY unlikely"
Again we were discussing possiblities. I foresaw that Putin's new tactic (as it then was) - of bombing the shit out of Ukrainian infra, might have some significant success
This was acknowledged as true, even at the time, even by the Ukes
"Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity"
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/05/world/europe/kyiv-ukraine-electricity-russia-infrastructure.html
We now know they came really close to doing this: evacuating Kyiv
You seem to want every PB-er to say "Yay Ukraine is doing fantastically well" all the time and at every juncture. That is not commentary, it is cheerleading
In lieu of yet another thread becoming dominated by @SeanT or @Leon ....
I wonder if Sunak's only hope is to disassociate himself from the Conservative Party much as Johnson did last time when he sounded like an opposition leader criticising the Government of which he was Prime Minister.
Sunak has to play the "vote for me, not my party" card for all its worth - the "Conservative" brand is electoral hemlock yet Sunak himself, pace Major, may be able to convince more people to vote for him as PM - his personal ratings run ahead of the party.
It's a story about a beautiful little Tuscan seaside town, and all the Russians, and others, hiding out there
This paragraph struck me:
https://www.ft.com/content/de803c80-4ce8-4112-b711-7f32e453eae9
"According to locals and reports in the Italian press both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently have villas here [in Forte]. “It’s true,” a local hotelier whispered when I asked about Putin’s rumoured home, though, when I put it to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, he said: “This is complete nonsense.” San Tommaso SRL, a company which owns property in Forte, confirmed that the Ukrainian president’s family are shareholders"
Can one of the teachers here tell us if this is really a story.
SFAICS, in any year all results are relative to each other, and top universities/highly popular courses are not going to leave places empty. So who, if anyone is disadvantaged?
Have to seen this from Guardian? You are finally in the money!!!
"English Heritage alone will receive £11.2m, which will enable a “groundbreaking apprenticeship programme” that will “save the skill of flintworking from extinction”."
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2023/aug/10/uk-philanthropist-gives-almost-29m-to-heritage-skills-training
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/12/vivek-ramaswamy-polls-rise-00110937
Two new polls of Republican primary voters released on Thursday showed former President Donald Trump in first place by a wide margin. But what was startling was who came in second.
The first shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in his usual spot far behind Trump. The other shows 38-year-old first-time political candidate Vivek Ramaswamy edging out DeSantis for second place...
That's never actually happened due to Covid, but to give you some idea, if we'd been marking consistently for the last four years, B grades in 2022 would have got Ds based on the 2019 grade boundaries (which for several subjects was the only year the reformed GCSEs and A-levels were actually sat).
The real story underlying all this is the exam reform was appallingly botched and we went in without workable marking criteria. But somehow that's not filtering out.
That said, the only other candidate making a similar effort is RFK Jr, who’s widely derided as a no-hoper.
I remember when you were hailing ISIS as the greatest propaganda genius since Goebbels by blowing up some ancient temples in Syria.
But where are ISIS, or Goebbels for that matter, now ?
Ukraine will be sorted on the battlefield as wars always have been.
The whole thing is a fecking pointless self-indulgent vanity project, and instead of pissing there money away on "going into space", those supporting it could use their unwanted cash to fund something good in this world.
If you are a 19 year old and you look down your nose at a 50 year old for their A-level results then it shows you are stupid anyway, despite whatever grades you have, as not comparing like with like and not having the awareness of that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHt6dBJtOok&t=3s
He certainly comes across as eloquent and intelligent.
But that doesn't stop him being dangerous:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Ramaswamy#Political_positions
For example, I repeated a report from someone on twitter a while ago who I had previously found reliable, and it subsequently proved that they had overstated a situation. I no longer use that source of information because it gives a misleadingly positive view of the situation for Ukraine.
But you are a stuck record on Ukraine, and you are incapable of self-correcting, and your constant doom-bleating is tiresome.
You must be desperately disappointed at the weather forecasters in this country then.
(Grey shading shows the extent of territory previously-held by the invaders)
Source: https://liveuamap.com/en
Individually they mean nothing
The comparison is telling: Russia blisters and lies in an aggressive way. Ukraine confirms zelensky’s ownership in a transparent manner
* as in old articles that did not stand the test of time
Which would be a disaster for Ukraine and, sadly, us as well. It's not the easy answer.