One thing I have bet on tonight: Michael Gove to appear on Strictly before 2026 at 13/2 (boosted) with Ladbrokes.
Probably a loser but if he loses office and even his seat then, given he's a free man and likes his moves, it's just the sort of thing he might do to rehabilitate himself in opposition.
US version did NOT exactly burnish reputation for classy moves, of Fucker Carlson.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
And June was fantastic. I am always bemused by summer; June is definitely the best bit, July is OK, August is early autumn and the hedgerows etc are always looking tired and dusty and tatty by then.
Also we need a vile English summer once every 4 years at least to persuade the potential staycationers they need to fly off to Rhodes and leave us alone.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
That's a glib response par excellence. Those of us who do want to discuss polling (and we can even if you don't want to) might note the Find Out Now poll has a larger than usual sample of 11,000.
I've seen on another site Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7% and Reform 4% so that's a pretty bleak poll for the centre-right. Perhaps their time is up - that's all - after 13 years plus.
Looking forward to seeing the data tables and the ever-wonderful sub-samples and discussing them.
Your pompous rudeness (autism? aspergers?) in responding to any political point of view you don't agree with is legendary.
I am here to discuss polling. And if you hadn't noticed I make quite a bit of money from my political betting.
I don't doubt the Conservatives are on course for a heavy defeat together with a Labour victory. But they won't be wiped out to under 100 seats.
Much of what's driving polling at the moment is complete apathy from centre-right voters (that doesn't include you, by the way) who are sitting on their hands. The one thing that will rally some of them to the colours is the prospect of a landslide Labour victory and the potential wipeout of any opposition. Current polling is not measuring real behaviour in an actual election campaign.
I therefore expect the Conservatives to increase in polling (not enough to win or anything like it, but enough to avoid a total wipeout) when the election is called, and through onto polling day itself.
It even happened in 1997.
Notwithstanding the ritual insults which we've all come to expect from anyone who dares to cross you - and the traditional accusations of psychological problems when you've clearly got a lot of issues yourself...
I agree with you (as I often have) a 90 seat Conservative rump, while amusing on some levels, is fairly improbable though I don't think it can be entirely ruled out.
It's an interesting notion centre-right voters will somehow rally round to prevent a wipeout - it was the argument I remember in 2001 when Labour won on a low turnout. Indeed, some post-election polling of non-voters showed they backed Labour 2:1 over other parties but didn't come out because the result appeared a foregone conclusion.
Even with 90 seats, Braverman, Badenoch and Dowden will likely survive.
I wasn't aware you made money from betting on politics - kudos - I make money from betting on horses but you probably weren't aware of that (to be fair, from some of my selections on here I wouldn't blame you).
You started with "That's a glib response par excellence" which is very rude, and then proceeded to suggest I wasn't interested in polling.
That was totally uncalled for.
If you want a grown-up discussion act like a grown-up and try and reign in your social ineptitude.
Yes but it was a glib response. We all know that there is no election tomorrow.
The betting currently has Lab on 1.18 for most seats and 1.54 for Lab Majority, so cannot see any value bets. A am on NOC at 3.8.
Smarkets has a seat bands market, but very thin liquidity and only goes as far as Tories sub 200 seats. Personally I would like to see sub 150 and sub 100 bands. I cannot see any spread markets yet.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
There must be a political analogy to the Crooked House being demolished by dodgy property developers. I suppose the most appropriate analogy would be for it to be replaced by something grey, dull and boring.
There was a superb cartoon in the declining days of Thatcher, with Hezza as Samson tearing down the temple of the Philistines (Judges 16:23-30).
The image was a temple collapsing, with "CREDIBILITY" just readable on the facade.
The caption (paraphrase): "Ooops. Either I don't know my own strength, or it was jerry-build anyway !"
It seems relevant. Though I'm not sure who the Samson is at present.
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
The "Demolition for Safety Reasons" looks weak - especially since access for fire engines was blocked, while a JCB happened to be conveniently on site.
"We had to destroy the pub to save it!"
They do not get to choose, the local Planners do, and they were on site and can confirm that the demolition was illegal. It is a clear breach and is going to end up being very expensive.
The demolition so soon after the fire was a giant red flag. Even after such damage you just don't get permission that fast, so if the fire was not intentional it could have just waited, and if it was intentional they still could have.
It’s looking increasingly like this is going to end up a neat little morality tale, with the crooked house being rebuilt (can it be rebuilt crooked though, under building regs?) and the developers bang to rights.
The future of the pub then, if rebuilt - but who pays? Developer will immediately declare bankruptcy of course - is probably more golden than it was before. Given a nice makeover it could become a bit of a tourist draw.
The pub is gone. Who is going to put their hand in their pocket to rebuild it?
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
We grumble about the weather because what makes people happy is sunshine, of which we don't get nearly enough. People can cope with cold winters if they get crisp frosty days with sunshine, ditto autumn with slanting sun, and spring with fresh new rays, and that all makes sense coz we need Vitamin D for good health, sunshine creates happy hormones via the pineal gland etc
North west Europe is one of the most sunless corners of the world, Britain is bad within that, and corners of Britain, like the northwest of England, most of Scotland, Wales, all of Ulster, are particularly sun deprived even within the UK. Somewhere like Glasgow gets about the same sun-hours as the Aleutian Islands off Alaska (famously overcast and intolerable)
So we are grumbling about something that is genuinely shit
Oh, "The Thick Of It" is on BBC4, with Peter Capaldi in his second best role. It's the first ep with Nicola Murray.
The Doctor being his best ?
Well. It's not his appearance in "World War Z", tbh
It may have been his Crown Court, or his episode of Minder !
We are going to spend all night quoting roles back and forth, aren't we?
He was in Lair Of The White Worm, and The Crow Road, in his floofy hair days. Rather sadly, he did age quite dramatically. He's 65 now. Time appears to be passing...
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
We're boating on the upper Thames at the moment. An impressive amount of current for August and the lock-keepers are working pretty hard to manage the levels in each reach - one of the lock landings was underwater yesterday. There's a lot more water around than you'd expect for this time of year and that's absolutely not a bad thing.
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
The "Demolition for Safety Reasons" looks weak - especially since access for fire engines was blocked, while a JCB happened to be conveniently on site.
"We had to destroy the pub to save it!"
They do not get to choose, the local Planners do, and they were on site and can confirm that the demolition was illegal. It is a clear breach and is going to end up being very expensive.
The demolition so soon after the fire was a giant red flag. Even after such damage you just don't get permission that fast, so if the fire was not intentional it could have just waited, and if it was intentional they still could have.
It’s looking increasingly like this is going to end up a neat little morality tale, with the crooked house being rebuilt (can it be rebuilt crooked though, under building regs?) and the developers bang to rights.
The future of the pub then, if rebuilt - but who pays? Developer will immediately declare bankruptcy of course - is probably more golden than it was before. Given a nice makeover it could become a bit of a tourist draw.
The pub is gone. Who is going to put their hand in their pocket to rebuild it?
Hopefully the new owners, pour encourager les autres.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
We grumble about the weather because what makes people happy is sunshine, of which we don't get nearly enough. People can cope with cold winters if they get crisp frosty days with sunshine, ditto autumn with slanting sun, and spring with fresh new rays, and that all makes sense coz we need Vitamin D for good health, sunshine creates happy hormones via the pineal gland etc
North west Europe is one of the most sunless corners of the world, Britain is bad within that, and corners of Britain, like the northwest of England, most of Scotland, Wales, all of Ulster, are particularly sun deprived even within the UK. Somewhere like Glasgow gets about the same sun-hours as the Aleutian Islands off Alaska (famously overcast and intolerable)
So we are grumbling about something that is genuinely shit
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
You mean, like Hague in 2001? Or Foot in 1983?
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
You could add Hague too, actually Howard was better at rallying the right behind him in 2005 than Hague was in 2001 even if the centre again stayed with Blair.
Foot did manage to keep Labour second ahead of the SDP in 1983 which was not always certain
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
There must be a political analogy to the Crooked House being demolished by dodgy property developers. I suppose the most appropriate analogy would be for it to be replaced by something grey, dull and boring.
There was a superb cartoon in the declining days of Thatcher, with Hezza as Samson tearing down the temple of the Philistines (Judges 16:23-30).
The image was a temple collapsing, with "CREDIBILITY" just readable on the facade.
The caption (paraphrase): "Ooops. Either I don't know my own strength, or it was jerry-build anyway !"
It seems relevant. Though I'm not sure who the Samson is at present.
"Calm of mind, all passion spent" seems an apt description of Lord Heseltine in his later years.
Regarding the Crooked House, it looks like an example of what the Americans, with their gift for verbal coinage, call Scofflaw: not so much a crime as a flagrant demonstration of impunity.
Just reeks of gimmickry. No solutions to any of the multiple problems the nation faces. Just another group to demonise. Or zombify if you prefer. And are people that bothered by Greenpeace? Been around for yonks
Greenpeace are the old fogeys of the green ecosystem, the cool kids are elsewhere.
Mmm, and I think that if you try to say "this lot are beyond the pale, menaces to society" about Greenpeace a lot of people will react with "what, Greenpeace? don't be daft". You could probably get that line of attack across against Extinction Rebellion, but I think Greenpeace is just too familiar and old a name.
Indeed, and all this bloke did was appear at a demonstration against the government Bill suppressing and criminalising peaceful assembly for protest. If that's the best they can come up with then the Tories are on a hiding to nothing, indeed may well shore up the Green tactical vote for Labour.
Starmer did famously do some pro-bono work for London Greenpeace (no relation) for the famous McLibel trial.
Once again showing a sound set of values, when not being too timid. BJO fans please explain.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
Genuine question: you often complain about Scottish weather, why don't you move somewhere sunny, or at least buy a second home somewhere sunny? It seems like you can afford it?
I'm not trying to tease or catch you out. I am genuinely intrigued by the way people react to weather (as it impacts me psychologically quite hard: I get SAD)
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
The "Demolition for Safety Reasons" looks weak - especially since access for fire engines was blocked, while a JCB happened to be conveniently on site.
"We had to destroy the pub to save it!"
They do not get to choose, the local Planners do, and they were on site and can confirm that the demolition was illegal. It is a clear breach and is going to end up being very expensive.
The demolition so soon after the fire was a giant red flag. Even after such damage you just don't get permission that fast, so if the fire was not intentional it could have just waited, and if it was intentional they still could have.
It’s looking increasingly like this is going to end up a neat little morality tale, with the crooked house being rebuilt (can it be rebuilt crooked though, under building regs?) and the developers bang to rights.
The future of the pub then, if rebuilt - but who pays? Developer will immediately declare bankruptcy of course - is probably more golden than it was before. Given a nice makeover it could become a bit of a tourist draw.
The pub is gone. Who is going to put their hand in their pocket to rebuild it?
Hopefully the new owners, pour encourager les autres.
If they declare bankruptcy of the development company, I hope they get disbarred from being company directors.
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
The "Demolition for Safety Reasons" looks weak - especially since access for fire engines was blocked, while a JCB happened to be conveniently on site.
"We had to destroy the pub to save it!"
They do not get to choose, the local Planners do, and they were on site and can confirm that the demolition was illegal. It is a clear breach and is going to end up being very expensive.
The demolition so soon after the fire was a giant red flag. Even after such damage you just don't get permission that fast, so if the fire was not intentional it could have just waited, and if it was intentional they still could have.
It’s looking increasingly like this is going to end up a neat little morality tale, with the crooked house being rebuilt (can it be rebuilt crooked though, under building regs?) and the developers bang to rights.
The future of the pub then, if rebuilt - but who pays? Developer will immediately declare bankruptcy of course - is probably more golden than it was before. Given a nice makeover it could become a bit of a tourist draw.
The pub is gone. Who is going to put their hand in their pocket to rebuild it?
Hopefully the new owners, pour encourager les autres.
what new owners? This country is chock full of fenced off holes in the ground where property used to be.
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
The "Demolition for Safety Reasons" looks weak - especially since access for fire engines was blocked, while a JCB happened to be conveniently on site.
"We had to destroy the pub to save it!"
They do not get to choose, the local Planners do, and they were on site and can confirm that the demolition was illegal. It is a clear breach and is going to end up being very expensive.
The demolition so soon after the fire was a giant red flag. Even after such damage you just don't get permission that fast, so if the fire was not intentional it could have just waited, and if it was intentional they still could have.
It’s looking increasingly like this is going to end up a neat little morality tale, with the crooked house being rebuilt (can it be rebuilt crooked though, under building regs?) and the developers bang to rights.
The future of the pub then, if rebuilt - but who pays? Developer will immediately declare bankruptcy of course - is probably more golden than it was before. Given a nice makeover it could become a bit of a tourist draw.
The pub is gone. Who is going to put their hand in their pocket to rebuild it?
Hopefully the new owners, pour encourager les autres.
If they declare bankruptcy of the development company, I hope they get disbarred from being company directors.
Not enough. If it is proved they were involved in the arson or demolition, or both (quite likely) - or even the previous campaign to make the pub unprofitable - they need to do time. 3 years in clink, each of them. THAT will deter others from doing the same
It is time to crack down on these absolute c*nts. From what I have read this process happens far too often. Beloved building = sold = decay = convenient arson = demolition = development
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
The "Demolition for Safety Reasons" looks weak - especially since access for fire engines was blocked, while a JCB happened to be conveniently on site.
"We had to destroy the pub to save it!"
They do not get to choose, the local Planners do, and they were on site and can confirm that the demolition was illegal. It is a clear breach and is going to end up being very expensive.
The demolition so soon after the fire was a giant red flag. Even after such damage you just don't get permission that fast, so if the fire was not intentional it could have just waited, and if it was intentional they still could have.
It’s looking increasingly like this is going to end up a neat little morality tale, with the crooked house being rebuilt (can it be rebuilt crooked though, under building regs?) and the developers bang to rights.
The future of the pub then, if rebuilt - but who pays? Developer will immediately declare bankruptcy of course - is probably more golden than it was before. Given a nice makeover it could become a bit of a tourist draw.
The pub is gone. Who is going to put their hand in their pocket to rebuild it?
Hopefully the new owners, pour encourager les autres.
If they declare bankruptcy of the development company, I hope they get disbarred from being company directors.
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
The "Demolition for Safety Reasons" looks weak - especially since access for fire engines was blocked, while a JCB happened to be conveniently on site.
"We had to destroy the pub to save it!"
They do not get to choose, the local Planners do, and they were on site and can confirm that the demolition was illegal. It is a clear breach and is going to end up being very expensive.
The demolition so soon after the fire was a giant red flag. Even after such damage you just don't get permission that fast, so if the fire was not intentional it could have just waited, and if it was intentional they still could have.
It’s looking increasingly like this is going to end up a neat little morality tale, with the crooked house being rebuilt (can it be rebuilt crooked though, under building regs?) and the developers bang to rights.
The future of the pub then, if rebuilt - but who pays? Developer will immediately declare bankruptcy of course - is probably more golden than it was before. Given a nice makeover it could become a bit of a tourist draw.
The pub is gone. Who is going to put their hand in their pocket to rebuild it?
Hopefully the new owners, pour encourager les autres.
what new owners? This country is chock full of fenced off holes in the ground where property used to be.
The ones that recently bought the pub from Carlsberg Marstons.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
Genuine question: you often complain about Scottish weather, why don't you move somewhere sunny, or at least buy a second home somewhere sunny? It seems like you can afford it?
I'm not trying to tease or catch you out. I am genuinely intrigued by the way people react to weather (as it impacts me psychologically quite hard: I get SAD)
A MalcG in the sun lounging by the pool without a care in the world doesn't really suit his image. Living in his Highland estate with the dark clouds, wind and rain lashing in the background typing aggressively at all and sundry gives him his edge
Just reeks of gimmickry. No solutions to any of the multiple problems the nation faces. Just another group to demonise. Or zombify if you prefer. And are people that bothered by Greenpeace? Been around for yonks
Greenpeace are the old fogeys of the green ecosystem, the cool kids are elsewhere.
Mmm, and I think that if you try to say "this lot are beyond the pale, menaces to society" about Greenpeace a lot of people will react with "what, Greenpeace? don't be daft". You could probably get that line of attack across against Extinction Rebellion, but I think Greenpeace is just too familiar and old a name.
Indeed, and all this bloke did was appear at a demonstration against the government Bill suppressing and criminalising peaceful assembly for protest. If that's the best they can come up with then the Tories are on a hiding to nothing, indeed may well shore up the Green tactical vote for Labour.
Starmer did famously do some pro-bono work for London Greenpeace (no relation) for the famous McLibel trial.
Once again showing a sound set of values, when not being too timid. BJO fans please explain.
Many moons ago, inspired by a cruise on Florida's Intracoastal Waterway, I bunged Greenpeace £20 to save the manatees. Thereafter I received, more or less monthly, an elaborate publicity package begging for more, printed in full colour on nice shiny paper, A4, A3, multipage, the lot. The postage alone must have exceeded my paltry sub. The moral of this story is, if you don't like Greenpeace, give them a small donation and then stop. They will soon be bankrupt.
Here’s US commentator Saagar Enjeti, disagreeing with my hypothesis that OPEC are pissed of with Russia, and suggesting the Putin and MBS are going to team up to screw Biden on ‘gas’ prices ahead of the election.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
Genuine question: you often complain about Scottish weather, why don't you move somewhere sunny, or at least buy a second home somewhere sunny? It seems like you can afford it?
I'm not trying to tease or catch you out. I am genuinely intrigued by the way people react to weather (as it impacts me psychologically quite hard: I get SAD)
A MalcG in the sun lounging by the pool without a care in the world doesn't really suit his image. Living in his Highland estate with the dark clouds, wind and rain lashing in the background typing aggressively at all and sundry gives him his edge
Just reeks of gimmickry. No solutions to any of the multiple problems the nation faces. Just another group to demonise. Or zombify if you prefer. And are people that bothered by Greenpeace? Been around for yonks
Greenpeace are the old fogeys of the green ecosystem, the cool kids are elsewhere.
Mmm, and I think that if you try to say "this lot are beyond the pale, menaces to society" about Greenpeace a lot of people will react with "what, Greenpeace? don't be daft". You could probably get that line of attack across against Extinction Rebellion, but I think Greenpeace is just too familiar and old a name.
Indeed, and all this bloke did was appear at a demonstration against the government Bill suppressing and criminalising peaceful assembly for protest. If that's the best they can come up with then the Tories are on a hiding to nothing, indeed may well shore up the Green tactical vote for Labour.
Starmer did famously do some pro-bono work for London Greenpeace (no relation) for the famous McLibel trial.
Once again showing a sound set of values, when not being too timid. BJO fans please explain.
Many moons ago, inspired by a cruise on Florida's Intracoastal Waterway, I bunged Greenpeace £20 to save the manatees. Thereafter I received, more or less monthly, an elaborate publicity package begging for more, printed in full colour on the nice shiny paper, A4, A3, multipage, the lot. The postage alone must have exceeded my paltry sub. The moral of this story is, if you don't like Greenpeace, give them a small donation and then stop. They will soon be bankrupt.
That's pretty standard for charities and campaign groups. Give once and you are on their mailing list forever. Sometimes it even works. I get bumpf from CWF regularly, and it does prompt me to send more.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
You mean, like Hague in 2001? Or Foot in 1983?
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
You could add Hague too, actually Howard was better at rallying the right behind him in 2005 than Hague was in 2001 even if the centre again stayed with Blair.
Foot did manage to keep Labour second ahead of the SDP in 1983 which was not always certain
You mean the Alliance, I think, young HY
Yes 1983 was the closest the Liberals have ever come to being one of the main 2 parties again, they and their alliance partner, the SDP of Roy Jenkins, were just 2% behind Foot's Labour
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
May always seems to be best in Scotland though.
However… June was the warmest on record in Scotland. It was 2.7C above average. That’s a bigger departure than England (+2.3C) and the same as Wales.
It was also 26% drier than average and the whopping 3rd sunniest June on record too.
July was indeed shit in Scotland, though also 0.6C above the 1961-90 average. But much wetter than normal and a bit duller.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
Genuine question: you often complain about Scottish weather, why don't you move somewhere sunny, or at least buy a second home somewhere sunny? It seems like you can afford it?
I'm not trying to tease or catch you out. I am genuinely intrigued by the way people react to weather (as it impacts me psychologically quite hard: I get SAD)
A MalcG in the sun lounging by the pool without a care in the world doesn't really suit his image. Living in his Highland estate with the dark clouds, wind and rain lashing in the background typing aggressively at all and sundry gives him his edge
On topic: I think there is a local v national distinction for a lot of these "green" issues that can swing both ways. An advanced form of nimbyism:
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
On topic: I think there is a local v national distinction for a lot of these "green" issues that can swing both ways. An advanced form of nimbyism:
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
Basically, what is the national ULEZ that will get people worked up?
On topic: I think there is a local v national distinction for a lot of these "green" issues that can swing both ways. An advanced form of nimbyism:
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
Basically, what is the national ULEZ that will get people worked up?
Petrol cars from 2030? They could pretend that applies to all cars, not just new ones. And that it wasn't them who came up with it.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
Genuine question: you often complain about Scottish weather, why don't you move somewhere sunny, or at least buy a second home somewhere sunny? It seems like you can afford it?
I'm not trying to tease or catch you out. I am genuinely intrigued by the way people react to weather (as it impacts me psychologically quite hard: I get SAD)
A MalcG in the sun lounging by the pool without a care in the world doesn't really suit his image. Living in his Highland estate with the dark clouds, wind and rain lashing in the background typing aggressively at all and sundry gives him his edge
lol, yes
“It is never difficult to distinguish between with a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.”
I don't know what the "Gateway Pundit" complaint is about, but I haven't seen sentences this long, windy, and lacking in coherence since my own last substantial post.
On topic: I think there is a local v national distinction for a lot of these "green" issues that can swing both ways. An advanced form of nimbyism:
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
Basically, what is the national ULEZ that will get people worked up?
Petrol cars from 2030? They could pretend that applies to all cars, not just new ones. And that it wasn't them who came up with it.
The second bit is the problem for the government.
ULEZ could be pinned plausibly on Mayor Khan. To get a nationwide buzz, you need a nationwide issue... and who is in charge nationwide?
On topic: I think there is a local v national distinction for a lot of these "green" issues that can swing both ways. An advanced form of nimbyism:
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
Basically, what is the national ULEZ that will get people worked up?
Petrol cars from 2030? They could pretend that applies to all cars, not just new ones. And that it wasn't them who came up with it.
The second bit is the problem for the government.
ULEZ could be pinned plausibly on Mayor Khan. To get a nationwide buzz, you need a nationwide issue... and who is in charge nationwide?
On topic: I think there is a local v national distinction for a lot of these "green" issues that can swing both ways. An advanced form of nimbyism:
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
Basically, what is the national ULEZ that will get people worked up?
Petrol cars from 2030? They could pretend that applies to all cars, not just new ones. And that it wasn't them who came up with it.
The second bit is the problem for the government.
ULEZ could be pinned plausibly on Mayor Khan. To get a nationwide buzz, you need a nationwide issue... and who is in charge nationwide?
And too far in the future. And a difficult sell for helicopter Sunak.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
May always seems to be best in Scotland though.
However… June was the warmest on record in Scotland. It was 2.7C above average. That’s a bigger departure than England (+2.3C) and the same as Wales.
It was also 26% drier than average and the whopping 3rd sunniest June on record too.
July was indeed shit in Scotland, though also 0.6C above the 1961-90 average. But much wetter than normal and a bit duller.
Generally north western areas do best in may and june whilst the se does best in july and august relatively speaking. For example in august you are liable to get much better weather in margate than newquay.
On topic: I think there is a local v national distinction for a lot of these "green" issues that can swing both ways. An advanced form of nimbyism:
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
Basically, what is the national ULEZ that will get people worked up?
Petrol cars from 2030? They could pretend that applies to all cars, not just new ones. And that it wasn't them who came up with it.
Interesting stat. In July 24% of new car registrations met the 2030 target, up from 17% last July, so nearly a quarter of car buyers are 7 years ahead of the deadline. The whole market grew by 25% too, so some people have money.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Yes and there are things developing now like rapidly rising petrol prices with wholesale gasoline massively up the last month which could lead to the inflation problem getting worse.
On topic: I think there is a local v national distinction for a lot of these "green" issues that can swing both ways. An advanced form of nimbyism:
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
Basically, what is the national ULEZ that will get people worked up?
Petrol cars from 2030? They could pretend that applies to all cars, not just new ones. And that it wasn't them who came up with it.
Interesting stat. In July 24% of new car registrations met the 2030 target, up from 17% last July, so nearly a quarter of car buyers are 7 years ahead of the deadline. The whole market grew by 25% too, so some people have money.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
We grumble about the weather because what makes people happy is sunshine, of which we don't get nearly enough. People can cope with cold winters if they get crisp frosty days with sunshine, ditto autumn with slanting sun, and spring with fresh new rays, and that all makes sense coz we need Vitamin D for good health, sunshine creates happy hormones via the pineal gland etc
North west Europe is one of the most sunless corners of the world, Britain is bad within that, and corners of Britain, like the northwest of England, most of Scotland, Wales, all of Ulster, are particularly sun deprived even within the UK. Somewhere like Glasgow gets about the same sun-hours as the Aleutian Islands off Alaska (famously overcast and intolerable)
So we are grumbling about something that is genuinely shit
Cities like leeds are some of the dullest in the world. Even manchester is sunnier than leeds.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Yes and there are things developing now like rapidly rising petrol prices with wholesale gasoline massively up the last month which could lead to the inflation problem getting worse.
Even though petrol prices have blipped up in the past month, they’re still massively down on where they were a year ago.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
You mean, like Hague in 2001? Or Foot in 1983?
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
You could add Hague too, actually Howard was better at rallying the right behind him in 2005 than Hague was in 2001 even if the centre again stayed with Blair.
Foot did manage to keep Labour second ahead of the SDP in 1983 which was not always certain
You mean the Alliance, I think, young HY
Yes 1983 was the closest the Liberals have ever come to being one of the main 2 parties again, they and their alliance partner, the SDP of Roy Jenkins, were just 2% behind Foot's Labour
The good old days, eh young HY? It was a shame that the decent moderate Conservatives were talked out of joining the SDP.There was just one who did. If the Alliance and the SDP had prevailed, they might well have been in government until the present day - and just think of all the problems that we would have avoided....
It is interesting to note that the SDP, being a newly formed party, had no policy of its own, and so the Alliance fought with considerable success on Liberal Party policies.
It is also interesting to note that Starmer today is pushing the selfsame policies, again with a high level of acceptance among the public in general. He is even using the same slogans.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
July was actually marginally warmer than long term average in England and Wales too. Though cooler than the recent 1981-2010 average.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
Totally shit from June in Scotland, our summer was May.
May always seems to be best in Scotland though.
However… June was the warmest on record in Scotland. It was 2.7C above average. That’s a bigger departure than England (+2.3C) and the same as Wales.
It was also 26% drier than average and the whopping 3rd sunniest June on record too.
July was indeed shit in Scotland, though also 0.6C above the 1961-90 average. But much wetter than normal and a bit duller.
Generally north western areas do best in may and june whilst the se does best in july and august relatively speaking. For example in august you are liable to get much better weather in margate than newquay.
Absolutely. One reason the vineyards of Kent and Essex are more reliable for ripening than even Hampshire. Really notable in the stats for East Kent. And indeed Europe as a whole: the more continental the location, the wetter the spring and drier the autumn.
Just seen this on twitter. Part of the new traditional wife movement.
Traditional women typically are married before 25, serve the men in their lives, obey their husband, have 5+ kids, exc. I would guess 95% of western women were not raised to do that. It is what it is.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
You mean, like Hague in 2001? Or Foot in 1983?
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
You could add Hague too, actually Howard was better at rallying the right behind him in 2005 than Hague was in 2001 even if the centre again stayed with Blair.
Foot did manage to keep Labour second ahead of the SDP in 1983 which was not always certain
You mean the Alliance, I think, young HY
Yes 1983 was the closest the Liberals have ever come to being one of the main 2 parties again, they and their alliance partner, the SDP of Roy Jenkins, were just 2% behind Foot's Labour
The good old days, eh young HY? It was a shame that the decent moderate Conservatives were talked out of joining the SDP.There was just one who did. If the Alliance and the SDP had prevailed, they might well have been in government until the present day - and just think of all the problems that we would have avoided....
It is interesting to note that the SDP, being a newly formed party, had no policy of its own, and so the Alliance fought with considerable success on Liberal Party policies.
It is also interesting to note that Starmer today is pushing the selfsame policies, again with a high level of acceptance among the public in general. He is even using the same slogans.
With the additional advantage of not being a split opposition, with little to the left of him and very few Lab/LD contests. I think Con sub 150 very possible.
lot of us will have to learn to be submissive wives because we we’re not taught correctly. Women between the ages of 40-60 really were a generation of shitty wives
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
You mean, like Hague in 2001? Or Foot in 1983?
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
You could add Hague too, actually Howard was better at rallying the right behind him in 2005 than Hague was in 2001 even if the centre again stayed with Blair.
Foot did manage to keep Labour second ahead of the SDP in 1983 which was not always certain
You mean the Alliance, I think, young HY
Yes 1983 was the closest the Liberals have ever come to being one of the main 2 parties again, they and their alliance partner, the SDP of Roy Jenkins, were just 2% behind Foot's Labour
The good old days, eh young HY? It was a shame that the decent moderate Conservatives were talked out of joining the SDP.There was just one who did. If the Alliance and the SDP had prevailed, they might well have been in government until the present day - and just think of all the problems that we would have avoided....
It is interesting to note that the SDP, being a newly formed party, had no policy of its own, and so the Alliance fought with considerable success on Liberal Party policies.
It is also interesting to note that Starmer today is pushing the selfsame policies, again with a high level of acceptance among the public in general. He is even using the same slogans.
I doubt it, as 2010 to 2015 proved the quickest way for Liberals' poll ratings to collapse is to become part of the government!
Though arguably the Blair New Labour governments and the Cameron-Clegg government of 2010-2015 were SDP style governments in all but name anyway, not just the potential Starmer government coming up
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Part of the Tory problem is that people are bored and barely paying attention - they've decided, by and large, to remove the Tories from Government, and are quite irritated to find that they're going to be there for another 9-17 months. Sunak rushing around issuing statements on this and that is not really registering.
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
lot of us will have to learn to be submissive wives because we we’re not taught correctly. Women between the ages of 40-60 really were a generation of shitty wives
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Part of the Tory problem is that people are bored and barely paying attention - they've decided, by and large, to remove the Tories from Government, and are quite irritated to find that they're going to be there for another 9-17 months. Sunak rushing around issuing statements on this and that is not really registering.
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
Think the longer things go on the worse things will get for the tories. For example we now have petrol prices rising again.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Part of the Tory problem is that people are bored and barely paying attention - they've decided, by and large, to remove the Tories from Government, and are quite irritated to find that they're going to be there for another 9-17 months. Sunak rushing around issuing statements on this and that is not really registering.
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
Yes, nothing Sunak comes up with is registering, and he is firing every missile he has. What will be left for the campaign?
Despite its comfortable majority this is a lame duck government, and everyone can see it. The country is visibly looking very shopworn and needing new management. I hope Starmer isn't quite so dreary in government.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Part of the Tory problem is that people are bored and barely paying attention - they've decided, by and large, to remove the Tories from Government, and are quite irritated to find that they're going to be there for another 9-17 months. Sunak rushing around issuing statements on this and that is not really registering.
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
Double edged sword because conference season also gives Labour some attention - usually positive, so long as there’s not infighting which seems unlikely. Helps with the whole sealing the deal thing.
Triple edged in fact because Sunak is not an inspiring speech maker.
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
I haven't seen Newsnight for ages, I used to like it. In my hotel room tonight I thought I'd take a look. Why oh why do the BBC persevere with the dreadful Victoria Derbyshire? An aggressive interviewer who ignores her interviewee and answers the question herself. She is so smug, but she was back in her 5Live days.
She is currently admonishing Chris Bryant for writing a book for money whilst being an MP. She is like a dog with a bone, and one of the worst proponents of partisan equalisation. She compared Jess Phillips's fee for Have I got News for You with Nadine and 30p Lee's gigs on GBNews.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Part of the Tory problem is that people are bored and barely paying attention - they've decided, by and large, to remove the Tories from Government, and are quite irritated to find that they're going to be there for another 9-17 months. Sunak rushing around issuing statements on this and that is not really registering.
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
Double edged sword because conference season also gives Labour some attention - usually positive, so long as there’s not infighting which seems unlikely. Helps with the whole sealing the deal thing.
Triple edged in fact because Sunak is not an inspiring speech maker.
Yes, the Tory MPs screwed up, by replacing a charismatic PM with a managerial declinist.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Part of the Tory problem is that people are bored and barely paying attention - they've decided, by and large, to remove the Tories from Government, and are quite irritated to find that they're going to be there for another 9-17 months. Sunak rushing around issuing statements on this and that is not really registering.
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
Yes, nothing Sunak comes up with is registering, and he is firing every missile he has. What will be left for the campaign?
Despite its comfortable majority this is a lame duck government, and everyone can see it. The country is visibly looking very shopworn and needing new management. I hope Starmer isn't quite so dreary in government.
I have an awful feeling extreme right wing movements could grow with starmer in govt.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Part of the Tory problem is that people are bored and barely paying attention - they've decided, by and large, to remove the Tories from Government, and are quite irritated to find that they're going to be there for another 9-17 months. Sunak rushing around issuing statements on this and that is not really registering.
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
Double edged sword because conference season also gives Labour some attention - usually positive, so long as there’s not infighting which seems unlikely. Helps with the whole sealing the deal thing.
Triple edged in fact because Sunak is not an inspiring speech maker.
Yes, the Tory MPs screwed up, by replacing a charismatic PM with a managerial declinist.
Just seen this on twitter. Part of the new traditional wife movement.
Traditional women typically are married before 25, serve the men in their lives, obey their husband, have 5+ kids, exc. I would guess 95% of western women were not raised to do that. It is what it is.
Just seen this on twitter. Part of the new traditional wife movement.
Traditional women typically are married before 25, serve the men in their lives, obey their husband, have 5+ kids, exc. I would guess 95% of western women were not raised to do that. It is what it is.
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
I watched it in a packed theatre on a midweek evening, over a week after release.
At the end of the movie people applauded.
It was silly. It was absurd.
But it absolutely wasn't man hating. In fact, the very last speech by Barbie was about how a world where women were on top, and the Kens were underneath wouldn't work.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
Well it's August now!
Yes doesnt time fly.Lots of things have happened since June.
Indeed so, 100,000 Russian soldiers have died, and 500 of their tanks have been destroyed.
This is not good news for ukraine. From telegraph.
Ukraine is “highly unlikely” to make a major breakthrough in its counter-offensive to retake territory held by Russia, senior US and Western officials have said, citing “sobering” intelligence.
Ukraine is struggling to break through Russia’s defensive lines in the east and south of the country and the map has barely changed since the highly anticipated counter-offensive began two months ago.
“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who has recently met with US commanders training Ukrainian forces in Europe, told CNN. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”
“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told the American news channel.
“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” another senior Western diplomat told CNN. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”
While the autumn is set to bring the long sought-after Abrams tanks from the US, it will also bring more challenging weather conditions for advancing.
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
I watched it in a packed theatre on a midweek evening, over a week after release.
At the end of the movie people applauded.
It was silly. It was absurd.
But it absolutely wasn't man hating. In fact, the very last speech by Barbie was about how a world where women were on top, and the Kens were underneath wouldn't work.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
You mean, like Hague in 2001? Or Foot in 1983?
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
You could add Hague too, actually Howard was better at rallying the right behind him in 2005 than Hague was in 2001 even if the centre again stayed with Blair.
Foot did manage to keep Labour second ahead of the SDP in 1983 which was not always certain
You mean the Alliance, I think, young HY
Yes 1983 was the closest the Liberals have ever come to being one of the main 2 parties again, they and their alliance partner, the SDP of Roy Jenkins, were just 2% behind Foot's Labour
The good old days, eh young HY? It was a shame that the decent moderate Conservatives were talked out of joining the SDP.There was just one who did. If the Alliance and the SDP had prevailed, they might well have been in government until the present day - and just think of all the problems that we would have avoided....
It is interesting to note that the SDP, being a newly formed party, had no policy of its own, and so the Alliance fought with considerable success on Liberal Party policies.
It is also interesting to note that Starmer today is pushing the selfsame policies, again with a high level of acceptance among the public in general. He is even using the same slogans.
Only one Tory MP defected to the SDP in the shape of Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler, but a number of members of the House of Lords also did, including IIRC the Duke of Devonshire (whose country house is of course Chatsworth).
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
I watched it in a packed theatre on a midweek evening, over a week after release.
At the end of the movie people applauded.
It was silly. It was absurd.
But it absolutely wasn't man hating. In fact, the very last speech by Barbie was about how a world where women were on top, and the Kens were underneath wouldn't work.
Elon Musk seems to disagree though.
OH MY GOD!
Me and Elon disagree on something????
It's not the first thing we disagree on. For example, I think naming a child X Æ A-XII, while simultaneously objecting to other people choosing their pronouns shows a staggering lack of self awareness.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
Well it's August now!
Yes doesnt time fly.Lots of things have happened since June.
Indeed so, 100,000 Russian soldiers have died, and 500 of their tanks have been destroyed.
This is not good news for ukraine.
Oh no, 100,000 dead Russian soldiers isi bloody brilliant for Ukraine.
Ukraine has an unlimited number of soldiers and new recruits, backed with the best arms that NATO has to offer, willing to fight for the existence of their country.
Russia, on the other hand, is relying on a bunch of mercenaries and unwilling young conscripts, as well as a screwed economy from which everyone with the means to do so has already escaped.
Just seen this on twitter. Part of the new traditional wife movement.
Traditional women typically are married before 25, serve the men in their lives, obey their husband, have 5+ kids, exc. I would guess 95% of western women were not raised to do that. It is what it is.
"The incident was identified in October 2022 after suspicious activity was detected on our systems. It became clear that hostile actors had first accessed the systems in August 2021.
During the cyber-attack, the perpetrators had access to the Commission’s servers which held our email, our control systems, and copies of the electoral registers.
They were able to access reference copies of the electoral registers, held by the Commission for research purposes and to enable permissibility checks on political donations. The registers held at the time of the cyber-attack include the name and address of anyone in the UK who registered to vote between 2014 and 2022, as well as the names of those registered as overseas voters. The registers did not include the details of those registered anonymously. The Commission’s email system was also accessible during the attack."
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
I watched it in a packed theatre on a midweek evening, over a week after release.
At the end of the movie people applauded.
It was silly. It was absurd.
But it absolutely wasn't man hating. In fact, the very last speech by Barbie was about how a world where women were on top, and the Kens were underneath wouldn't work.
Barbie stuff was discounted in Sainsbury's today. I could not say if this was tied to the film.
It's disappointing that we had a Tory MP using foul language today to support a policy. Not a fan of that sort of populism.
"F*** off back to X", where X is somewhere outside Britain, resonates well with the geniuses whose votes the Tory party needs.
Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson won extra points for setting the value of X as "France".
He has been supported by both the justice secretary and "Number 10", i.e. the prime minister. It would have been very easy for either to have distanced themselves from the chosen phrase if they'd wanted to. Instead they're sending the following messages
1. (to Tory campaigners and candidates) - go for it. 2. (to Tory voters and those who might possibly vote Tory) - we're the party that expresses how you feel.
They know what they're doing. This isn't off the cuff.
If there's a party that enjoys appealing to guttersnipes and is actually skilled at appealing to guttersnipes, it's the one with the blue rosettes that has connections with the Carlton Club.
And the way that Labour can seize the moral high ground is ... er ... er ...
"The incident was identified in October 2022 after suspicious activity was detected on our systems. It became clear that hostile actors had first accessed the systems in August 2021.
During the cyber-attack, the perpetrators had access to the Commission’s servers which held our email, our control systems, and copies of the electoral registers.
They were able to access reference copies of the electoral registers, held by the Commission for research purposes and to enable permissibility checks on political donations. The registers held at the time of the cyber-attack include the name and address of anyone in the UK who registered to vote between 2014 and 2022, as well as the names of those registered as overseas voters. The registers did not include the details of those registered anonymously. The Commission’s email system was also accessible during the attack."
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
I watched it in a packed theatre on a midweek evening, over a week after release.
At the end of the movie people applauded.
It was silly. It was absurd.
But it absolutely wasn't man hating. In fact, the very last speech by Barbie was about how a world where women were on top, and the Kens were underneath wouldn't work.
Barbie stuff was discounted in Sainsbury's today. I could not say if this was tied to the film.
I think the outer edge of Labour's lead is very soft and probably illusory but the inner core of it is quite robust.
I am not so sure. I think the lead is now quite solid, albeit mostly an ABC vote, and for most voters that means Labour.
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
Part of the Tory problem is that people are bored and barely paying attention - they've decided, by and large, to remove the Tories from Government, and are quite irritated to find that they're going to be there for another 9-17 months. Sunak rushing around issuing statements on this and that is not really registering.
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
The other basic problem is that their attempts to 'reboot' are aimed in the wrong direction and undermine the one thing they had going for them following the Johnson/Truss fiascos. Namely, that Sunak was a return to a sensible, more moderate version of Conservatism that would heal some of the divisions of the past few years and get on with running the country so everyone could put the bad stuff behind us. Now, that may have been a slightly mistaken view of Sunak's politics - which on closer inspection are much more right-wing than people's initial impression - but it was an opportunity. As it is, they seem to think alienating their last remaining under 50 or moderate supporters by making it look like Sunak is hiding behind thugs like Anderson, is good strategy when all it's done is made the PM's ratings decline and made their polling situation stickier even as bad economic stories have shifted to the inside pages. After Truss, the only way to get voters who've become fed up of years of failure to look again was to show you really had changed and were renewing and capable of clearing up the mess. Instead it's been doubling down and getting high on their own supply. They seriously need a shellacking for their own good at the next election.
Just seen this on twitter. Part of the new traditional wife movement.
Traditional women typically are married before 25, serve the men in their lives, obey their husband, have 5+ kids, exc. I would guess 95% of western women were not raised to do that. It is what it is.
1) If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, on which side do you bury the survivors? 2) Which is more legendary - @TSE 's modesty or the quietness of his shoe choices. 3) Is @NickPalmer a God? 4) Pineapple on pizza. Sensible choice or warcrime? 5)
For what it's worth, I think it will be something like LAB 41% CON 33% at the GE. With LAB getting around 350 seats so a maj of about 50.
That eight-point margin is quite similar to the predicted national share of the vote seven point margin in the last vaguely national elections in May (of course that was local elections, so had the Lib Dems higher). So I can see it being borne out next year, although of course events ...
"The incident was identified in October 2022 after suspicious activity was detected on our systems. It became clear that hostile actors had first accessed the systems in August 2021.
During the cyber-attack, the perpetrators had access to the Commission’s servers which held our email, our control systems, and copies of the electoral registers.
They were able to access reference copies of the electoral registers, held by the Commission for research purposes and to enable permissibility checks on political donations. The registers held at the time of the cyber-attack include the name and address of anyone in the UK who registered to vote between 2014 and 2022, as well as the names of those registered as overseas voters. The registers did not include the details of those registered anonymously. The Commission’s email system was also accessible during the attack."
In itself this is a boring story. In context, though, it could relate to
1. correspondence regarding possible and actual donations to political parties 2. software contracts 3. getting pictures of polling stations on the front pages alongside the Bibby Stockholm 4. heightening a "La Patrie En Danger" culture among officials at all levels 5. overseas voters scams, possibly
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
I watched it in a packed theatre on a midweek evening, over a week after release.
At the end of the movie people applauded.
It was silly. It was absurd.
But it absolutely wasn't man hating. In fact, the very last speech by Barbie was about how a world where women were on top, and the Kens were underneath wouldn't work.
Elon Musk seems to disagree though.
OH MY GOD!
Me and Elon disagree on something????
It's not the first thing we disagree on. For example, I think naming a child X Æ A-XII, while simultaneously objecting to other people choosing their pronouns shows a staggering lack of self awareness.
He does make better trampolines*.
Mind you, Dmitry Rogozin has had a severe undercarriage malfunction, according to some**.
For what it's worth, I think it will be something like LAB 41% CON 33% at the GE. With LAB getting around 350 seats so a maj of about 50.
That eight-point margin is quite similar to the predicted national share of the vote seven point margin in the last vaguely national elections in May (of course that was local elections, so had the Lib Dems higher). So I can see it being borne out next year, although of course events ...
It'd be good if there were some spread markets on seat numbers or majority sizes.
Just seen this on twitter. Part of the new traditional wife movement.
Traditional women typically are married before 25, serve the men in their lives, obey their husband, have 5+ kids, exc. I would guess 95% of western women were not raised to do that. It is what it is.
Interesting comments from Bill Maher on the barbie movie.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
I watched it in a packed theatre on a midweek evening, over a week after release.
At the end of the movie people applauded.
It was silly. It was absurd.
But it absolutely wasn't man hating. In fact, the very last speech by Barbie was about how a world where women were on top, and the Kens were underneath wouldn't work.
It was well made and probably as good a film as you could make of Barbie, it made me chuckle several times, but I confess I don't know how it has become a major phenomenom and success, as it's not that clever or amazing once the set up has been established, but well done to the whole lot of them for smashing it with audiences and critics and being the movie of the moment.
However, that doesn't take away that many of the criticisms are just plain dumb - like objecting to how the Mattel board is portrayed in a movie Mattel signed off on!
Comments
Bit of a portent of things to come.
Also we need a vile English summer once every 4 years at least to persuade the potential staycationers they need to fly off to Rhodes and leave us alone.
The betting currently has Lab on 1.18 for most seats and 1.54 for Lab Majority, so cannot see any value bets. A am on NOC at 3.8.
Smarkets has a seat bands market, but very thin liquidity and only goes as far as Tories sub 200 seats. Personally I would like to see sub 150 and sub 100 bands. I cannot see any spread markets yet.
Shit sandwich summer I think, because the latter 2/3rds of August look pretty good at the moment.
The image was a temple collapsing, with "CREDIBILITY" just readable on the facade.
The caption (paraphrase):
"Ooops. Either I don't know my own strength, or it was jerry-build anyway !"
It seems relevant. Though I'm not sure who the Samson is at present.
North west Europe is one of the most sunless corners of the world, Britain is bad within that, and corners of Britain, like the northwest of England, most of Scotland, Wales, all of Ulster, are particularly sun deprived even within the UK. Somewhere like Glasgow gets about the same sun-hours as the Aleutian Islands off Alaska (famously overcast and intolerable)
So we are grumbling about something that is genuinely shit
He was in Lair Of The White Worm, and The Crow Road, in his floofy hair days. Rather sadly, he did age quite dramatically. He's 65 now. Time appears to be passing...
Regarding the Crooked House, it looks like an example of what the Americans, with their gift for verbal coinage, call Scofflaw: not so much a crime as a flagrant demonstration of impunity.
Starmer did famously do some pro-bono work for London Greenpeace (no relation) for the famous McLibel trial.
Once again showing a sound set of values, when not being too timid. BJO fans please explain.
I'm not trying to tease or catch you out. I am genuinely intrigued by the way people react to weather (as it impacts me psychologically quite hard: I get SAD)
It is time to crack down on these absolute c*nts. From what I have read this process happens far too often. Beloved building = sold = decay = convenient arson = demolition = development
I think the DKs will break pretty much as the rest of the population. Women are double the males in any poll showing DKs, but equally likely to vote. They also break more for the Labour than Conservatives, so will cancel out any shy Tory effect.
I think Con at 100-150 seats on present polls is about right.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ns_1EJkalx8
Ayr is in the Lowlands.
However… June was the warmest on record in Scotland. It was 2.7C above average. That’s a bigger departure than England (+2.3C) and the same as Wales.
It was also 26% drier than average and the whopping 3rd sunniest June on record too.
July was indeed shit in Scotland, though also 0.6C above the 1961-90 average. But much wetter than normal and a bit duller.
Hate protesters/concerned about climate change
Don't like LTNs/love living in my cul de sac
No blanket 20mph/except outside my kids school
Yes to ULEZ/but leave my car alone
This is the essence of the endless debate we have been having on PB (sorry for my part in that). We can expect more of it if the Tories fix on this for the next year or so.
It's highly unpredictable - the Tories clearly found ULEZ to *just* stem the tide, but applying that same logic to other policies? Will this successful by-election strategy work nationwide, particularly when some areas like London and Scotland are already rolling out stuff like 20mph, or where ULEZ simply isn't a thing?
My hunch is a broader climate/pollution/safety denial campaign will be a net negative in aggregate, only effective in a few seats like Uxbridge.
“It is never difficult to distinguish between with a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.”
ULEZ could be pinned plausibly on Mayor Khan. To get a nationwide buzz, you need a nationwide issue... and who is in charge nationwide?
So... immigration.
Creative solutions abound.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2023/08/summer-surge-as-one-new-ev-registered-every-60-seconds/
(I'm only half kidding)
How is the weather in St Petersburg?
It is interesting to note that the SDP, being a newly formed party, had no policy of its own, and so the Alliance fought with considerable success on Liberal Party policies.
It is also interesting to note that Starmer today is pushing the selfsame policies, again with a high level of acceptance among the public in general. He is even using the same slogans.
Traditional women typically are married before 25, serve the men in their lives, obey their husband, have 5+ kids, exc. I would guess 95% of western women were not raised to do that. It is what it is.
https://twitter.com/pearlythingz/status/1688972562628562944?s=20
lot of us will have to learn to be submissive wives because we we’re not taught correctly. Women between the ages of 40-60 really were a generation of shitty wives
https://twitter.com/pearlythingz/status/1688973460192800768?s=20
Though arguably the Blair New Labour governments and the Cameron-Clegg government of 2010-2015 were SDP style governments in all but name anyway, not just the potential Starmer government coming up
I remember there were a couple of posters here who predicted that the gap would narrow by 1% every month from January this year, whereas in fact nothing much has changed. The best Tory shot before the election itself may be the conference - perhaps rhey can manage some sort of reboot?
Despite its comfortable majority this is a lame duck government, and everyone can see it. The country is visibly looking very shopworn and needing new management. I hope Starmer isn't quite so dreary in government.
Triple edged in fact because Sunak is not an inspiring speech maker.
OK, "Barbie": I was hoping it wouldn't be preachy, man-hating, and a #ZombieLie - alas, it was all three. What is a Zombie Lie? Something that never was true, but certain people refuse to stop saying it (tax cuts for the rich increase revenues, e.g.); OR something that USED to be true but no longer is, but certain people pretend it's still true. "Barbie" is this kind of #ZombieLie. Spoiler alert, Barbie fights the Patriarchy. Right up to the Mattel board who created her, consisting of 12 white men! The Patriarchy! Except there's a Mattel board in real life, and it's 7 men and 5 women. OK, not perfect even-steven, but not the way the board IN THE MOVIE - which takes place in 2023 - is portrayed. And not really any longer deserving of the word "patriarchy." Yes, there was one, and remnants of it remain - but this movie is so 2000-LATE. At one point the Barbies have to win over the Kens, and they are told to do it by pretending to act helpless and not know how to do stuff. Helen Gurley Brown called, she wants her premise back. Yes, that WAS a thing. I saw "Barbie" with a woman in her 30s who said, "I don't know a single woman of any age who would act like that today." I know, I know, 'How could I know about the patriarchy, I AM a man!' That argument is so old and so silly. Of course, none of us can know exactly what others go through life, but I can see the world around me, and I can read data. The real Mattel board is a pretty close mirror of the country, where 45% of the 449 board seats filled last year in Fortune 500 companies were women. Truth is, I'm not the one who's out of step - I'm living in the year we're living in. Barbie is fun, I enjoyed it - but it IS a #ZombieLie. And people who don't go along with zombie lies did not take some red pill - just staying true to CURRENT reality. Let's live in the year we're living in! Hi Ken!!! #BarbieMovie
https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1688648703660404736?s=20
Why do they keep pushing these lies?
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1688751841914286081?s=20
I haven't seen Newsnight for ages, I used to like it. In my hotel room tonight I thought I'd take a look. Why oh why do the BBC persevere with the dreadful Victoria Derbyshire? An aggressive interviewer who ignores her interviewee and answers the question herself. She is so smug, but she was back in her 5Live days.
She is currently admonishing Chris Bryant for writing a book for money whilst being an MP. She is like a dog with a bone, and one of the worst proponents of partisan equalisation. She compared Jess Phillips's fee for Have I got News for You with Nadine and 30p Lee's gigs on GBNews.
Russia TFR 1.50 and because of poor life expectancy compared with other nations, a declining population.
I watched it in a packed theatre on a midweek evening, over a week after release.
At the end of the movie people applauded.
It was silly. It was absurd.
But it absolutely wasn't man hating. In fact, the very last speech by Barbie was about how a world where women were on top, and the Kens were underneath wouldn't work.
Ukraine is “highly unlikely” to make a major breakthrough in its counter-offensive to retake territory held by Russia, senior US and Western officials have said, citing “sobering” intelligence.
Ukraine is struggling to break through Russia’s defensive lines in the east and south of the country and the map has barely changed since the highly anticipated counter-offensive began two months ago.
“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who has recently met with US commanders training Ukrainian forces in Europe, told CNN. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”
“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told the American news channel.
“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” another senior Western diplomat told CNN. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”
While the autumn is set to bring the long sought-after Abrams tanks from the US, it will also bring more challenging weather conditions for advancing.
I hope everybody on the site has read Them.
https://www.amazon.com/Them-Adventures-Extremists-Jon-Ronson/dp/0743233212/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1691533358&sr=8-9
Greenpeace isn't the Green party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Cavendish,_11th_Duke_of_Devonshire
Me and Elon disagree on something????
It's not the first thing we disagree on. For example, I think naming a child X Æ A-XII, while simultaneously objecting to other people choosing their pronouns shows a staggering lack of self awareness.
Ukraine has an unlimited number of soldiers and new recruits, backed with the best arms that NATO has to offer, willing to fight for the existence of their country.
Russia, on the other hand, is relying on a bunch of mercenaries and unwilling young conscripts, as well as a screwed economy from which everyone with the means to do so has already escaped.
During the cyber-attack, the perpetrators had access to the Commission’s servers which held our email, our control systems, and copies of the electoral registers.
They were able to access reference copies of the electoral registers, held by the Commission for research purposes and to enable permissibility checks on political donations. The registers held at the time of the cyber-attack include the name and address of anyone in the UK who registered to vote between 2014 and 2022, as well as the names of those registered as overseas voters. The registers did not include the details of those registered anonymously. The Commission’s email system was also accessible during the attack."
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/privacy-policy/public-notification-cyber-attack-electoral-commission-systems
Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson won extra points for setting the value of X as "France".
He has been supported by both the justice secretary and "Number 10", i.e. the prime minister. It would have been very easy for either to have distanced themselves from the chosen phrase if they'd wanted to. Instead they're sending the following messages
1. (to Tory campaigners and candidates) - go for it.
2. (to Tory voters and those who might possibly vote Tory) - we're the party that expresses how you feel.
They know what they're doing. This isn't off the cuff.
If there's a party that enjoys appealing to guttersnipes and is actually skilled at appealing to guttersnipes, it's the one with the blue rosettes that has connections with the Carlton Club.
And the way that Labour can seize the moral high ground is ... er ... er ...
1) If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, on which side do you bury the survivors?
2) Which is more legendary - @TSE 's modesty or the quietness of his shoe choices.
3) Is @NickPalmer a God?
4) Pineapple on pizza. Sensible choice or warcrime?
5)
1. correspondence regarding possible and actual donations to political parties
2. software contracts
3. getting pictures of polling stations on the front pages alongside the Bibby Stockholm
4. heightening a "La Patrie En Danger" culture among officials at all levels
5. overseas voters scams, possibly
Mind you, Dmitry Rogozin has had a severe undercarriage malfunction, according to some**.
*https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/the-trampoline-is-working-spacex-returns-human-spaceflight-to-america/
**https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ztqvuc/reports_of_rogozin_facing_penis_amputation_and/
However, that doesn't take away that many of the criticisms are just plain dumb - like objecting to how the Mattel board is portrayed in a movie Mattel signed off on!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-66445452
Hackers accessed names and addresses in ‘complex’ security breach
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/electoral-commission-hack-exposes-millions-of-voter-details-jn588mjqc (£££)
Still think Russia is uninterested in British politics? Have you asked Circleline?