New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
Not hackers this time. Rather, some idiot included the names of every PSNI police officer in response to an FOI request.
Does no-one do a check on FOI request responses before they leave the internal systems? That’s an insane story from an InfoSec point of view.
There should always be an independent second pair of eyes on stuff like this, doubly so in such a sensitive agency as the PSNI.
When I was working, I'd always try to leave any email for at least five minutes as a draft before sending, and check over it. Preferably overnight, if I could.
I fear too many people treat emails as if it is an Internet chat, or PB...
Absolutely, always better to sit on something, and see nothing more than an annoying typo on the sent version.
No-one should be using email for FOI request responses though, it should go through a CRM system with multiple checks and signoffs along the way.
This particular case is such an egregious breach of security, that it could result in millions of pounds of costs in giving people new identities and relocating them for security reasons. No way should any employee outside the HR department, have access to a full staff list.
At Company Y, someone in HR sent out a spreadsheet with everyone's salary on it, company-wide. A minute or so later they sent an Outlook recall request. Except a load of us were using SMTP/POP3, and recalls did not work on us ...
I asked for a list of student matric numbers on course 1234 from our central "We Do It Proper" IT a while back and was emailed a spreadsheet full of matric numbers along with home addresses, private emails, country of origin, passport details, etc etc. I couldn't delete it fast enough...
Er whoops. Do you have an ‘information commissioner’, InfoSec manager, or similar role within your organisation, to whom you can report such data breaches? People need to be trained, in order that such mistakes aren’t repeated.
In theory - yes. In practice, unless it's a public-facing "incident" then .... 'meh'. We're great at theatre we are. Tick-boxes ticked to within an inch of their lives...
I had an email just a few weeks ago saying 'A new file has been uploaded to your $secure_files_area!'. Thought 'eh?' and looked at it - very quickly realising it was the Occupational Health records of someone else and their *very* private details of their health issues.
"Oops! 'The System' must have gone funny!"
So that's fine.
There have always been lots of minor breaches in organisations even with proper infosec people, and not much tends to get done about it. I assume the Information Commissioner's patience would run out eventually but workload is such that they wait for more major stuff to slap the larger fines on.
I would not be surprised if a lot of places unofficially have a culture of just keeping schtum and playing the odds of getting caught, eevn where the official rule is report even near misses. People are very good about knowing what they should do and say, but not doing it.
Aaaand this is exactly what I am on about. You think you are with it and groovy as fuck, Daddy O, for watching a Bronski Beat video, but you (genuinely) don't see what the fuss is about when an actual contemporary gay man is livid about an actual farcical distortion of gay history. Because it's so comical to see them get all het up.
It's not about signalling, it's about thinking.
I do think, thanks. I might take the same data and come to a different conclusion; that does not mean I am not *thinking*. Or 'signalling' for that matter.
And if you really want to rewarm this discussion (why?) I'd ask you to send me a link to the gent's comments, as I did on the previous thread. Or I might think you are trolling.
[SO else]An object lesson in bringing queer history into disrepute.
Hensher: Exactly
Also Hensher
I increasingly think the drive to queer things has absolutely nothing to do with gay sex, and in many proponents’ case they are rather repulsed by it.
Which I think, if you substitute trans for queer and gay, nails you exactly. Neither the queer nor the trans were put on this earth to furnish a hobby for amiable old straight buffers like you.
Thanks for the link. AS for the rest of your post: grow up. reasonable people can reasonably disagree, and you are just being plain nasty.
We don't disagree. You entertain ideaoids rather than ideas. You think this is harmless. You are in fact cheering on people who castrate 16 year old boys for being gay. I am opposed to this practice. I am not exaggerating or joking.
Now you are bang out of order.
No. If you bothered to research your bandwagons before leaping aboard, you would know exactly what I mean.
To make it quite clear (and I fear this is exactly what you want): I am not "cheering on people who castrate 16 year old boys for being gay." I never have.
Not explicitly, no. Obviously. But yes by implication, because you can't be arsed to research, or think about, the people you are explicitly aligning yourself with. you are living proof of the perils of intellectual laziness.
Green lives in Yorkshire. She has four adult children, including twins, with her husband Tim. In 2017, Green presented a Ted Talk discussing the journey to gain gender-affirming surgery for her eldest child at age 16 in Thailand.[3][10] Green met members of the British royal family at an event to acknowledge the contribution of those working in the mental health sector in the U.K.[11]
Aaaand this is exactly what I am on about. You think you are with it and groovy as fuck, Daddy O, for watching a Bronski Beat video, but you (genuinely) don't see what the fuss is about when an actual contemporary gay man is livid about an actual farcical distortion of gay history. Because it's so comical to see them get all het up.
It's not about signalling, it's about thinking.
I do think, thanks. I might take the same data and come to a different conclusion; that does not mean I am not *thinking*. Or 'signalling' for that matter.
And if you really want to rewarm this discussion (why?) I'd ask you to send me a link to the gent's comments, as I did on the previous thread. Or I might think you are trolling.
[SO else]An object lesson in bringing queer history into disrepute.
Hensher: Exactly
Also Hensher
I increasingly think the drive to queer things has absolutely nothing to do with gay sex, and in many proponents’ case they are rather repulsed by it.
Which I think, if you substitute trans for queer and gay, nails you exactly. Neither the queer nor the trans were put on this earth to furnish a hobby for amiable old straight buffers like you.
Thanks for the link. AS for the rest of your post: grow up. reasonable people can reasonably disagree, and you are just being plain nasty.
We don't disagree. You entertain ideaoids rather than ideas. You think this is harmless. You are in fact cheering on people who castrate 16 year old boys for being gay. I am opposed to this practice. I am not exaggerating or joking.
Now you are bang out of order.
No. If you bothered to research your bandwagons before leaping aboard, you would know exactly what I mean.
To make it quite clear (and I fear this is exactly what you want): I am not "cheering on people who castrate 16 year old boys for being gay." I never have.
Not explicitly, no. Obviously. But yes by implication, because you can't be arsed to research, or think about, the people you are explicitly aligning yourself with. you are living proof of the perils of intellectual laziness.
What the actual fuck?
Trust me, it won't matter how much you say you don't believe, support, endorse, or align in any way to that view, nor demonstrate that with quotes of your own views and comments. It will just be ignored and suggested you're lying no matter how definitively you state it, with a bunch of posturing verbiage about how you shouldn't have said what you never said in the first place.
Just reeks of gimmickry. No solutions to any of the multiple problems the nation faces. Just another group to demonise. Or zombify if you prefer. And are people that bothered by Greenpeace? Been around for yonks
Greenpeace are the old fogeys of the green ecosystem, the cool kids are elsewhere.
Mmm, and I think that if you try to say "this lot are beyond the pale, menaces to society" about Greenpeace a lot of people will react with "what, Greenpeace? don't be daft". You could probably get that line of attack across against Extinction Rebellion, but I think Greenpeace is just too familiar and old a name.
That's part of why they are the old fogeys of the green movement - they are the comfortable, establishment side of it to the real radicals. Probably seen as busy hobnobbing with powerful people too much or some such stuff.
Exposed! Sir Keir Starmer’s shadowy links with woke National Trust and RSPB. Insiders claim he may even have been present at RNLI gathering in 1990s.
"His sister is a thespian!" was once hurled at an opponent by his (successful) challenger, a mid-20th century Florida politico.
On the RNLI my son and his colleagues just spent over an hour and a half on the water as a despondent young lady threatened to jump
Fortunately the coastguard and police talked her down, but it is a reminder of just how much mental health issues affect so many
Aaaand this is exactly what I am on about. You think you are with it and groovy as fuck, Daddy O, for watching a Bronski Beat video, but you (genuinely) don't see what the fuss is about when an actual contemporary gay man is livid about an actual farcical distortion of gay history. Because it's so comical to see them get all het up.
It's not about signalling, it's about thinking.
I do think, thanks. I might take the same data and come to a different conclusion; that does not mean I am not *thinking*. Or 'signalling' for that matter.
And if you really want to rewarm this discussion (why?) I'd ask you to send me a link to the gent's comments, as I did on the previous thread. Or I might think you are trolling.
[SO else]An object lesson in bringing queer history into disrepute.
Hensher: Exactly
Also Hensher
I increasingly think the drive to queer things has absolutely nothing to do with gay sex, and in many proponents’ case they are rather repulsed by it.
Which I think, if you substitute trans for queer and gay, nails you exactly. Neither the queer nor the trans were put on this earth to furnish a hobby for amiable old straight buffers like you.
Thanks for the link. AS for the rest of your post: grow up. reasonable people can reasonably disagree, and you are just being plain nasty.
We don't disagree. You entertain ideaoids rather than ideas. You think this is harmless. You are in fact cheering on people who castrate 16 year old boys for being gay. I am opposed to this practice. I am not exaggerating or joking.
Now you are bang out of order.
No. If you bothered to research your bandwagons before leaping aboard, you would know exactly what I mean.
To make it quite clear (and I fear this is exactly what you want): I am not "cheering on people who castrate 16 year old boys for being gay." I never have.
Not explicitly, no. Obviously. But yes by implication, because you can't be arsed to research, or think about, the people you are explicitly aligning yourself with. you are living proof of the perils of intellectual laziness.
Green lives in Yorkshire. She has four adult children, including twins, with her husband Tim. In 2017, Green presented a Ted Talk discussing the journey to gain gender-affirming surgery for her eldest child at age 16 in Thailand.[3][10] Green met members of the British royal family at an event to acknowledge the contribution of those working in the mental health sector in the U.K.[11]
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
Aaaand this is exactly what I am on about. You think you are with it and groovy as fuck, Daddy O, for watching a Bronski Beat video, but you (genuinely) don't see what the fuss is about when an actual contemporary gay man is livid about an actual farcical distortion of gay history. Because it's so comical to see them get all het up.
It's not about signalling, it's about thinking.
I do think, thanks. I might take the same data and come to a different conclusion; that does not mean I am not *thinking*. Or 'signalling' for that matter.
And if you really want to rewarm this discussion (why?) I'd ask you to send me a link to the gent's comments, as I did on the previous thread. Or I might think you are trolling.
[SO else]An object lesson in bringing queer history into disrepute.
Hensher: Exactly
Also Hensher
I increasingly think the drive to queer things has absolutely nothing to do with gay sex, and in many proponents’ case they are rather repulsed by it.
Which I think, if you substitute trans for queer and gay, nails you exactly. Neither the queer nor the trans were put on this earth to furnish a hobby for amiable old straight buffers like you.
Thanks for the link. AS for the rest of your post: grow up. reasonable people can reasonably disagree, and you are just being plain nasty.
We don't disagree. You entertain ideaoids rather than ideas. You think this is harmless. You are in fact cheering on people who castrate 16 year old boys for being gay. I am opposed to this practice. I am not exaggerating or joking.
Now you are bang out of order.
No. If you bothered to research your bandwagons before leaping aboard, you would know exactly what I mean.
To make it quite clear (and I fear this is exactly what you want): I am not "cheering on people who castrate 16 year old boys for being gay." I never have.
Not explicitly, no. Obviously. But yes by implication, because you can't be arsed to research, or think about, the people you are explicitly aligning yourself with. you are living proof of the perils of intellectual laziness.
Green lives in Yorkshire. She has four adult children, including twins, with her husband Tim. In 2017, Green presented a Ted Talk discussing the journey to gain gender-affirming surgery for her eldest child at age 16 in Thailand.[3][10] Green met members of the British royal family at an event to acknowledge the contribution of those working in the mental health sector in the U.K.[11]
News to you, nae doot.
Please tell me when I have agreed with that?
You jump on a bandwagon, you are on that bandwagon.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Not hackers this time. Rather, some idiot included the names of every PSNI police officer in response to an FOI request.
Does no-one do a check on FOI request responses before they leave the internal systems? That’s an insane story from an InfoSec point of view.
There should always be an independent second pair of eyes on stuff like this, doubly so in such a sensitive agency as the PSNI.
When I was working, I'd always try to leave any email for at least five minutes as a draft before sending, and check over it. Preferably overnight, if I could.
I fear too many people treat emails as if it is an Internet chat, or PB...
Absolutely, always better to sit on something, and see nothing more than an annoying typo on the sent version.
No-one should be using email for FOI request responses though, it should go through a CRM system with multiple checks and signoffs along the way.
This particular case is such an egregious breach of security, that it could result in millions of pounds of costs in giving people new identities and relocating them for security reasons. No way should any employee outside the HR department, have access to a full staff list.
At Company Y, someone in HR sent out a spreadsheet with everyone's salary on it, company-wide. A minute or so later they sent an Outlook recall request. Except a load of us were using SMTP/POP3, and recalls did not work on us ...
I asked for a list of student matric numbers on course 1234 from our central "We Do It Proper" IT a while back and was emailed a spreadsheet full of matric numbers along with home addresses, private emails, country of origin, passport details, etc etc. I couldn't delete it fast enough...
Er whoops. Do you have an ‘information commissioner’, InfoSec manager, or similar role within your organisation, to whom you can report such data breaches? People need to be trained, in order that such mistakes aren’t repeated.
In theory - yes. In practice, unless it's a public-facing "incident" then .... 'meh'. We're great at theatre we are. Tick-boxes ticked to within an inch of their lives...
I had an email just a few weeks ago saying 'A new file has been uploaded to your $secure_files_area!'. Thought 'eh?' and looked at it - very quickly realising it was the Occupational Health records of someone else and their *very* private details of their health issues.
"Oops! 'The System' must have gone funny!"
So that's fine.
There have always been lots of minor breaches in organisations even with proper infosec people, and not much tends to get done about it. I assume the Information Commissioner's patience would run out eventually but workload is such that they wait for more major stuff to slap the larger fines on.
I would not be surprised if a lot of places unofficially have a culture of just keeping schtum and playing the odds of getting caught, eevn where the official rule is report even near misses. People are very good about knowing what they should do and say, but not doing it.
If you ignore the minor breaches and the near misses, you inevitably end up with a catastrophe.
Which is why in industries like public transport, there’s a reporting culture of any incident. The AAIB and RAIB produce monthly reports about incidents and near misses, so that the rest of their industry can learn from mistakes and avoid the serious accident. People working in the industry are encouraged by their employers to work within such a framework, and to call out minor incidents in their workplace.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
The selection of Leader would presumably still be in the hands of the Membership.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
I don't know why you don't post over on netweather.tv - I do. That's the place for discussing the weather and model output - the opinion polls of weather forecasting.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion.
To be fair they usually do. I would not be betting on the conservatives getting below 30-32% in the actual election.
But FPTP is a funny thing. If normally Tory voters did decide to sit it out on the basis the government needed to be punished, while left of centre voters tactical voted en masse, I’m not sure everyone realises how far seat numbers could fall.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion.
Yes, look at the trend for any opinion polls over the last 30-40 years in the mid-terms and how they change in the build up to an election once the election is called, and the campaign takes effect.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest rates will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
That's a glib response par excellence. Those of us who do want to discuss polling (and we can even if you don't want to) might note the Find Out Now poll has a larger than usual sample of 11,000.
I've seen on another site Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7% and Reform 4% so that's a pretty bleak poll for the centre-right. Perhaps their time is up - that's all - after 13 years plus.
Looking forward to seeing the data tables and the ever-wonderful sub-samples and discussing them.
Not hackers this time. Rather, some idiot included the names of every PSNI police officer in response to an FOI request.
Does no-one do a check on FOI request responses before they leave the internal systems? That’s an insane story from an InfoSec point of view.
There should always be an independent second pair of eyes on stuff like this, doubly so in such a sensitive agency as the PSNI.
When I was working, I'd always try to leave any email for at least five minutes as a draft before sending, and check over it. Preferably overnight, if I could.
I fear too many people treat emails as if it is an Internet chat, or PB...
Absolutely, always better to sit on something, and see nothing more than an annoying typo on the sent version.
No-one should be using email for FOI request responses though, it should go through a CRM system with multiple checks and signoffs along the way.
This particular case is such an egregious breach of security, that it could result in millions of pounds of costs in giving people new identities and relocating them for security reasons. No way should any employee outside the HR department, have access to a full staff list.
At Company Y, someone in HR sent out a spreadsheet with everyone's salary on it, company-wide. A minute or so later they sent an Outlook recall request. Except a load of us were using SMTP/POP3, and recalls did not work on us ...
I asked for a list of student matric numbers on course 1234 from our central "We Do It Proper" IT a while back and was emailed a spreadsheet full of matric numbers along with home addresses, private emails, country of origin, passport details, etc etc. I couldn't delete it fast enough...
It happens. I wonder if that's because they're held in a spreadsheet, and someone just emails out that sheet, or someone just uses a database query (manually or preset) to include all data?
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion.
Yes, look at the trend for any opinion polls over the last 30-40 years in the mid-terms and how they change in the build up to an election once the election is called, and the campaign takes effect.
This is a nowcast not a forecast.
Surely just “mid-term”, not “the mid terms”. We had talk of Libs earlier, next thing we’ll be calling the Tories the GOP* and constituency selection meetings caucuses.
*Like the French centre-right with their silly “les républicains” rebrand.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
The first stage for Sunak has to be when inflation falls below average wage rises
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion.
Yes, look at the trend for any opinion polls over the last 30-40 years in the mid-terms and how they change in the build up to an election once the election is called, and the campaign takes effect.
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Be patient. It’s coming. Today was the last day of Autumn.
Well it's not been blazing hot. But I'm not one to wear shorts at the drop of a hat, and I've been in shorts pretty much since mid-May. It's certainly not been as warm aslast year, and it's been considerably wetter, but - well, how many days of cricket did we lose in the Ashes? About 4 out of 25? That means for over 80% of the time it's been acceptably summery.
That said, my oldest daughter, whose preferred climate is Perthshire in late Autumn, has been considerably nicer company this summer than last!
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
That's a glib response par excellence. Those of us who do want to discuss polling (and we can even if you don't want to) might note the Find Out Now poll has a larger than usual sample of 11,000.
I've seen on another site Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7% and Reform 4% so that's a pretty bleak poll for the centre-right. Perhaps their time is up - that's all - after 13 years plus.
Looking forward to seeing the data tables and the ever-wonderful sub-samples and discussing them.
Your pompous rudeness (autism? aspergers?) in responding to any political point of view you don't agree with is legendary.
I am here to discuss polling. And if you hadn't noticed I make quite a bit of money from my political betting.
I don't doubt the Conservatives are on course for a heavy defeat together with a Labour victory. But they won't be wiped out to under 100 seats.
Much of what's driving polling at the moment is complete apathy from centre-right voters (that doesn't include you, by the way) who are sitting on their hands. The one thing that will rally some of them to the colours is the prospect of a landslide Labour victory and the potential wipeout of any opposition. Current polling is not measuring real behaviour in an actual election campaign.
I therefore expect the Conservatives to increase in polling (not enough to win or anything like it, but enough to avoid a total wipeout) when the election is called, and through onto polling day itself.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
It's a nowcast not a forecast.
On that basis, you could disregard any poll even the ones showing the Conservatives 20 points ahead.
We have plenty of evidence from actual votes in boxes the Conservatives aren't doing well currently.
Could they recover - certainly, but a recovery from 24% to 30% would mean the difference between a catastrophe and a disaster but there are some on here such as @Mexicanpete and @Peck who seem adamant this deficit is not only ephemeral and transitory but will be reversed to a Conservative majority.
Let's be fair - the Conservatives were polling badly in 85/86 and won big in 87 but it's the movement of votes directly from Conservative to Labour which does the damage. Some may stay at home rather than vote against the Conservatives as happened in 97 and we also know there are still a lot of "Don't Knows" - twice as many women as men.
The problem is time is running out - campaigns don't move votes as much as some think. If we're voting on October 10th or 17th 2024 that's not a lot. The same distance out from 1997 we knew which way it was going to go.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion.
Yes, look at the trend for any opinion polls over the last 30-40 years in the mid-terms and how they change in the build up to an election once the election is called, and the campaign takes effect.
This is a nowcast not a forecast.
Surely just “mid-term”, not “the mid terms”. We had talk of Libs earlier, next thing we’ll be calling the Tories the GOP* and constituency selection meetings caucuses.
*Like the French centre-right with their silly “les républicains” rebrand.
My phone autocorrects term to terms, just one extra 's', and I get all this?
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
It's a nowcast not a forecast.
On that basis, you could disregard any poll even the ones showing the Conservatives 20 points ahead.
We have plenty of evidence from actual votes in boxes the Conservatives aren't doing well currently.
Could they recover - certainly, but a recovery from 24% to 30% would mean the difference between a catastrophe and a disaster but there are some on here such as @Mexicanpete and @Peck who seem adamant this deficit is not only ephemeral and transitory but will be reversed to a Conservative majority.
Let's be fair - the Conservatives were polling badly in 85/86 and won big in 87 but it's the movement of votes directly from Conservative to Labour which does the damage. Some may stay at home rather than vote against the Conservatives as happened in 97 and we also know there are still a lot of "Don't Knows" - twice as many women as men.
The problem is time is running out - campaigns don't move votes as much as some think. If we're voting on October 10th or 17th 2024 that's not a lot. The same distance out from 1997 we knew which way it was going to go.
You are confusing two things: (1) that the Conservatives are doing very badly and (2) that modelling current polling is right and a total wipeout is on the cards.
I agree with (1) without agreeing with (2) and challenging (2) does not mean I'm in denial about (1).
We know MRP is only accurate about 7-10 days before election day itself, and past MRPs that were done earlier proved to be woefully out of line with subsequent reality.
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
Except that’s not remotely what happened. Which is why this story is the lead UK story in the Guardian and is the third headline in The Times
It is resonating
Conspiracies do happen and this is one I’m inclined to believe in. Needs, what, a dozen people or so to execute tops? A close knit group with a clear motive? Yes. I’m sold on this one.
You don't need a conspiracy to explain this. Just half a dozen people with criminal intent
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
The first stage for Sunak has to be when inflation falls below average wage rises
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
Funny, I was reading this earlier and was surprised to see it is already being forecast that wages are now rising above inflation and July’s inflation data will show that.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
That's a glib response par excellence. Those of us who do want to discuss polling (and we can even if you don't want to) might note the Find Out Now poll has a larger than usual sample of 11,000.
I've seen on another site Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7% and Reform 4% so that's a pretty bleak poll for the centre-right. Perhaps their time is up - that's all - after 13 years plus.
Looking forward to seeing the data tables and the ever-wonderful sub-samples and discussing them.
Your pompous rudeness (autism? aspergers?) in responding to any political point of view you don't agree with is legendary.
I am here to discuss polling. And if you hadn't noticed I make quite a bit of money from my political betting.
I don't doubt the Conservatives are on course for a heavy defeat together with a Labour victory. But they won't be wiped out to under 100 seats.
Much of what's driving polling at the moment is complete apathy from centre-right voters (that doesn't include you, by the way) who are sitting on their hands. The one thing that will rally some of them to the colours is the prospect of a landslide Labour victory and the potential wipeout of any opposition. Current polling is not measuring real behaviour in an actual election campaign.
I therefore expect the Conservatives to increase in polling (not enough to win or anything like it, but enough to avoid a total wipeout) when the election is called, and through onto polling day itself.
It even happened in 1997.
Notwithstanding the ritual insults which we've all come to expect from anyone who dares to cross you - and the traditional accusations of psychological problems when you've clearly got a lot of issues yourself...
I agree with you (as I often have) a 90 seat Conservative rump, while amusing on some levels, is fairly improbable though I don't think it can be entirely ruled out.
It's an interesting notion centre-right voters will somehow rally round to prevent a wipeout - it was the argument I remember in 2001 when Labour won on a low turnout. Indeed, some post-election polling of non-voters showed they backed Labour 2:1 over other parties but didn't come out because the result appeared a foregone conclusion.
Even with 90 seats, Braverman, Badenoch and Dowden will likely survive.
I wasn't aware you made money from betting on politics - kudos - I make money from betting on horses but you probably weren't aware of that (to be fair, from some of my selections on here I wouldn't blame you).
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion?
As Sir John Curtice once said IN MY PRESENCE[1], mid-term polls are more a mark of approval of the Govt of the day than a serious indication of voting intention. Voting is vaguely indicative about a year out, forms up about three months out (which uncoincidentally is around the length of an election campaign), and starts becoming really good indicator (of who will get the most votes) in the last week. The situation is compromised by governments choosing election dates dependent on the polls.
Best in mind that this is only predictive in the broadest sense: who gets the most votes. Things like the most seats, who will be PM, and so on are more difficult still.
[1] ...and about a couple of hundred other people in the hall
Most polls have them on 27-30% or thereabouts. I think 24% is a very low outlier. So with a bit of swingback and no disasters between now and turn maybe we’re looking at 33% on election day, and 42% for Labour.
Plug that into EC with 12% for the LDs and a bit of tactical voting and we get a Lab majority of 94.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
That's a glib response par excellence. Those of us who do want to discuss polling (and we can even if you don't want to) might note the Find Out Now poll has a larger than usual sample of 11,000.
I've seen on another site Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7% and Reform 4% so that's a pretty bleak poll for the centre-right. Perhaps their time is up - that's all - after 13 years plus.
Looking forward to seeing the data tables and the ever-wonderful sub-samples and discussing them.
Your pompous rudeness (autism? aspergers?) in responding to any political point of view you don't agree with is legendary.
I am here to discuss polling. And if you hadn't noticed I make quite a bit of money from my political betting.
I don't doubt the Conservatives are on course for a heavy defeat together with a Labour victory. But they won't be wiped out to under 100 seats.
Much of what's driving polling at the moment is complete apathy from centre-right voters (that doesn't include you, by the way) who are sitting on their hands. The one thing that will rally some of them to the colours is the prospect of a landslide Labour victory and the potential wipeout of any opposition. Current polling is not measuring real behaviour in an actual election campaign.
I therefore expect the Conservatives to increase in polling (not enough to win or anything like it, but enough to avoid a total wipeout) when the election is called, and through onto polling day itself.
It even happened in 1997.
Notwithstanding the ritual insults which we've all come to expect from anyone who dares to cross you - and the traditional accusations of psychological problems when you've clearly got a lot of issues yourself...
I agree with you (as I often have) a 90 seat Conservative rump, while amusing on some levels, is fairly improbable though I don't think it can be entirely ruled out.
It's an interesting notion centre-right voters will somehow rally round to prevent a wipeout - it was the argument I remember in 2001 when Labour won on a low turnout. Indeed, some post-election polling of non-voters showed they backed Labour 2:1 over other parties but didn't come out because the result appeared a foregone conclusion.
Even with 90 seats, Braverman, Badenoch and Dowden will likely survive.
I wasn't aware you made money from betting on politics - kudos - I make money from betting on horses but you probably weren't aware of that (to be fair, from some of my selections on here I wouldn't blame you).
You started with "That's a glib response par excellence" which is very rude, and then proceeded to suggest I wasn't interested in polling.
That was totally uncalled for.
If you want a grown-up discussion act like a grown-up and try and reign in your social ineptitude.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
The first stage for Sunak has to be when inflation falls below average wage rises
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
Let's be fair - under Ken Clarke the British economy was in really good shape in early 1997 - as I recall, we were even paying off our national debt via budget surpluses.
The Conservatives didn't derive the benefit from that they might have expected - I don't know why Sunak and Hunt think people will thank them after everything we've been through.
As to how Starmer and Reeves will deal with an improving economy, I appreciate the Conservatives may wish to make people believe they'll make things worse but the Government has its own record of deficit, debt and inflation to defend.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
According to Electoral Caculus he would be in danger if the number of Tory MPs drops to around 200, but personally I think he is less safe than that. EC tends to ignore tactical voting, which in his Somerset constituency is very likely to produce a strong LD surge.
This is probably a good thing for the long-term health of the Tory Party. A JRM leadership would likely be an extinction event.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion.
Yes, look at the trend for any opinion polls over the last 30-40 years in the mid-terms and how they change in the build up to an election once the election is called, and the campaign takes effect.
This is a nowcast not a forecast.
Stumbled across this at the weekend- x axis is days before the election, y axis is difference between polls and the final outcome in real vote share. So -5 means that 5 percent of swingback went on to happen.
TLDR is that swingback can happen, but it doesn't always happen, and the gap between where the Conservatives are and where they need to be is beginning to get rather big.
I wonder if “Crooked House” will start to resonate on the national political stage
It is a perfect story for a Labour Party which seeks to brand the Tories as greedy venal capitalists who have turned the nation into a mirror image of themselves. Britain is “This Crooked House” where the rich do what they like and trample on the little people and their stupid pubs. The brewing company Marstons now, also, has tough questions to answer
It is obviously striking home in a way few stories like this ever do. It does seem to summarise a mood. Enough.
And it’s not good for billionaire Sunak and chums
It was bought by a developer whilst a grade II listing was being sought. It accidentally caught fire, and on the grounds of safety the developer decided to demolish. After a year or two of planning appeals, the developer developed. The end.
Except that’s not remotely what happened. Which is why this story is the lead UK story in the Guardian and is the third headline in The Times
It is resonating
Conspiracies do happen and this is one I’m inclined to believe in. Needs, what, a dozen people or so to execute tops? A close knit group with a clear motive? Yes. I’m sold on this one.
You don't need a conspiracy to explain this. Just half a dozen people with criminal intent
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Too woke, more likely Barclay or Badenoch
The Tories will need to play at being woke, even if they don’t mean it. And Badenoch has disappointed. I expected her to be better, sharper, more articulate than she has been.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion?
As Sir John Curtice once said IN MY PRESENCE[1], mid-term polls are more a mark of approval of the Govt of the day than a serious indication of voting intention. Voting is vaguely indicative about a year out, forms up about three months out (which uncoincidentally is around the length of an election campaign), and starts becoming really good indicator (of who will get the most votes) in the last week. The situation is compromised by governments choosing election dates dependent on the polls.
Best in mind that this is only predictive in the broadest sense: who gets the most votes. Things like the most seats, who will be PM, and so on are more difficult still.
[1] ...and about a couple of hundred other people in the hall
We're surely closer to 'about a year out' than 'mid-term' though so these polls should be treated as vaguely indicative by Curtice's assessment.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion.
Yes, look at the trend for any opinion polls over the last 30-40 years in the mid-terms and how they change in the build up to an election once the election is called, and the campaign takes effect.
This is a nowcast not a forecast.
Stumbled across this at the weekend- x axis is days before the election, y axis is difference between polls and the final outcome in real vote share. So -5 means that 5 percent of swingback went on to happen.
TLDR is that swingback can happen, but it doesn't always happen, and the gap between where the Conservatives are and where they need to be is beginning to get rather big.
If we get inside the data there's an awful lot of centre-right voters who are currently DK/WNV or undecided.
They are key. It explains Sunak's strategy.
I expect enough of them to rally to get the Conservatives to 150-200 seats.
I'd be astonished if a wipeout of <100 seats occurred (as modelling current polling may show) because it would assume the election campaign and focus on Labour's manifesto and prospective programme for office had absolutely no effect at all in rallying its natural opponents.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion?
As Sir John Curtice once said IN MY PRESENCE[1], mid-term polls are more a mark of approval of the Govt of the day than a serious indication of voting intention. Voting is vaguely indicative about a year out, forms up about three months out (which uncoincidentally is around the length of an election campaign), and starts becoming really good indicator (of who will get the most votes) in the last week. The situation is compromised by governments choosing election dates dependent on the polls.
Best in mind that this is only predictive in the broadest sense: who gets the most votes. Things like the most seats, who will be PM, and so on are more difficult still.
[1] ...and about a couple of hundred other people in the hall
Fpt @DougSeal , @Casino_Royale , this is my response to your poll question on the previous thread
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
That's a glib response par excellence. Those of us who do want to discuss polling (and we can even if you don't want to) might note the Find Out Now poll has a larger than usual sample of 11,000.
I've seen on another site Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7% and Reform 4% so that's a pretty bleak poll for the centre-right. Perhaps their time is up - that's all - after 13 years plus.
Looking forward to seeing the data tables and the ever-wonderful sub-samples and discussing them.
Genuine question - has Electoral Calculus got its mojo back? I realise in 2010-2 it was the next big thing and “Baxtered” became a verb here on PB, but in recent years its forecasts have been risible and don’t pass the smell test on a constituency level - whereas some of the newer attempts like Flavible (RIP) and Ben Walker’s Britain Predicts have made a good fist of things. But maybe EC is back and my perception is outdated.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
It's a nowcast not a forecast.
On that basis, you could disregard any poll even the ones showing the Conservatives 20 points ahead.
We have plenty of evidence from actual votes in boxes the Conservatives aren't doing well currently.
Could they recover - certainly, but a recovery from 24% to 30% would mean the difference between a catastrophe and a disaster but there are some on here such as @Mexicanpete and @Peck who seem adamant this deficit is not only ephemeral and transitory but will be reversed to a Conservative majority.
Let's be fair - the Conservatives were polling badly in 85/86 and won big in 87 but it's the movement of votes directly from Conservative to Labour which does the damage. Some may stay at home rather than vote against the Conservatives as happened in 97 and we also know there are still a lot of "Don't Knows" - twice as many women as men.
The problem is time is running out - campaigns don't move votes as much as some think. If we're voting on October 10th or 17th 2024 that's not a lot. The same distance out from 1997 we knew which way it was going to go.
You are confusing two things: (1) that the Conservatives are doing very badly and (2) that modelling current polling is right and a total wipeout is on the cards.
I agree with (1) without agreeing with (2) and challenging (2) does not mean I'm in denial about (1).
We know MRP is only accurate about 7-10 days before election day itself, and past MRPs that were done earlier proved to be woefully out of line with subsequent reality.
I'm also a bit sceptical of any model output that suggests sub-100 type seat figures. It's certainly possible (Conservative wipeout in Canada and all that) but it seems to me more likely to indicate that the poll inputs have pushed the model out of the "not wildly far from the sort of result you typically get" range where it will be most likely to give accurate results.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Too woke, more likely Barclay or Badenoch
The Tories will need to play at being woke, even if they don’t mean it. And Badenoch has disappointed. I expected her to be better, sharper, more articulate than she has been.
Most polls have them on 27-30% or thereabouts. I think 24% is a very low outlier. So with a bit of swingback and no disasters between now and turn maybe we’re looking at 33% on election day, and 42% for Labour.
Plug that into EC with 12% for the LDs and a bit of tactical voting and we get a Lab majority of 94.
Yes, I think that's about right.
I'd be interested in prices for a Labour majority above/below 100.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion?
As Sir John Curtice once said IN MY PRESENCE[1], mid-term polls are more a mark of approval of the Govt of the day than a serious indication of voting intention. Voting is vaguely indicative about a year out, forms up about three months out (which uncoincidentally is around the length of an election campaign), and starts becoming really good indicator (of who will get the most votes) in the last week. The situation is compromised by governments choosing election dates dependent on the polls.
Best in mind that this is only predictive in the broadest sense: who gets the most votes. Things like the most seats, who will be PM, and so on are more difficult still.
[1] ...and about a couple of hundred other people in the hall
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
The first stage for Sunak has to be when inflation falls below average wage rises
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
Let's be fair - under Ken Clarke the British economy was in really good shape in early 1997 - as I recall, we were even paying off our national debt via budget surpluses.
The Conservatives didn't derive the benefit from that they might have expected - I don't know why Sunak and Hunt think people will thank them after everything we've been through.
As to how Starmer and Reeves will deal with an improving economy, I appreciate the Conservatives may wish to make people believe they'll make things worse but the Government has its own record of deficit, debt and inflation to defend.
I very much respect your contributions and you sum the position up well
Mind you Starmer has not sealed the deal yet and if anything looking at recent local election results both main parties seem to be losing out to the lib dems
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
The first stage for Sunak has to be when inflation falls below average wage rises
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
One thing to remember about inflation is that even supposing it falls to say <5% before the GE, as I assume it will, the impact of a couple of years of high inflation will be felt for a long time, and certainly past the GE.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
The first stage for Sunak has to be when inflation falls below average wage rises
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
Let's be fair - under Ken Clarke the British economy was in really good shape in early 1997 - as I recall, we were even paying off our national debt via budget surpluses.
The Conservatives didn't derive the benefit from that they might have expected - I don't know why Sunak and Hunt think people will thank them after everything we've been through.
As to how Starmer and Reeves will deal with an improving economy, I appreciate the Conservatives may wish to make people believe they'll make things worse but the Government has its own record of deficit, debt and inflation to defend.
I very much respect your contributions and you sum the position up well
Mind you Starmer has not sealed the deal yet and if anything looking at recent local election results both main parties seem to be losing out to the lib dems
If Starmer were being very meta he could call his election campaign “sealing the deal with the British people”.
Most polls have them on 27-30% or thereabouts. I think 24% is a very low outlier. So with a bit of swingback and no disasters between now and turn maybe we’re looking at 33% on election day, and 42% for Labour.
Plug that into EC with 12% for the LDs and a bit of tactical voting and we get a Lab majority of 94.
Yes, I think that's about right.
I'd be interested in prices for a Labour majority above/below 100.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
The first stage for Sunak has to be when inflation falls below average wage rises
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
Let's be fair - under Ken Clarke the British economy was in really good shape in early 1997 - as I recall, we were even paying off our national debt via budget surpluses.
The Conservatives didn't derive the benefit from that they might have expected - I don't know why Sunak and Hunt think people will thank them after everything we've been through.
As to how Starmer and Reeves will deal with an improving economy, I appreciate the Conservatives may wish to make people believe they'll make things worse but the Government has its own record of deficit, debt and inflation to defend.
I very much respect your contributions and you sum the position up well
Mind you Starmer has not sealed the deal yet and if anything looking at recent local election results both main parties seem to be losing out to the lib dems
If Starmer were being very meta he could call his election campaign “sealing the deal with the British people”.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
It's a nowcast not a forecast.
On that basis, you could disregard any poll even the ones showing the Conservatives 20 points ahead.
We have plenty of evidence from actual votes in boxes the Conservatives aren't doing well currently.
Could they recover - certainly, but a recovery from 24% to 30% would mean the difference between a catastrophe and a disaster but there are some on here such as @Mexicanpete and @Peck who seem adamant this deficit is not only ephemeral and transitory but will be reversed to a Conservative majority.
Let's be fair - the Conservatives were polling badly in 85/86 and won big in 87 but it's the movement of votes directly from Conservative to Labour which does the damage. Some may stay at home rather than vote against the Conservatives as happened in 97 and we also know there are still a lot of "Don't Knows" - twice as many women as men.
The problem is time is running out - campaigns don't move votes as much as some think. If we're voting on October 10th or 17th 2024 that's not a lot. The same distance out from 1997 we knew which way it was going to go.
You are confusing two things: (1) that the Conservatives are doing very badly and (2) that modelling current polling is right and a total wipeout is on the cards.
I agree with (1) without agreeing with (2) and challenging (2) does not mean I'm in denial about (1).
We know MRP is only accurate about 7-10 days before election day itself, and past MRPs that were done earlier proved to be woefully out of line with subsequent reality.
I'm also a bit sceptical of any model output that suggests sub-100 type seat figures. It's certainly possible (Conservative wipeout in Canada and all that) but it seems to me more likely to indicate that the poll inputs have pushed the model out of the "not wildly far from the sort of result you typically get" range where it will be most likely to give accurate results.
Agree with you both.
You cannot expect polls to be accurate this far out any more than you can expect precision from a long range weather forecast. Both are just an indication of where we are heading, but both are apt to be blown off course.
Our electoral system makes forecasting particularly hazardous. Except in the most extreme circumstances, a few percentage points either way makes a hell of a difference.
I certainly wouldn't be betting on seat-ranges just yet.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
Most polls have them on 27-30% or thereabouts. I think 24% is a very low outlier. So with a bit of swingback and no disasters between now and turn maybe we’re looking at 33% on election day, and 42% for Labour.
Plug that into EC with 12% for the LDs and a bit of tactical voting and we get a Lab majority of 94.
Yes, I think that's about right.
I'd be interested in prices for a Labour majority above/below 100.
I’ll take below at £10 a seat, please.
Smarkets have some Conservative and Labour seat bands up but there's virtually no liquidity in them, and no real value.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
One thing I have bet on tonight: Michael Gove to appear on Strictly before 2026 at 13/2 (boosted) with Ladbrokes.
Probably a loser but if he loses office and even his seat then, given he's a free man and likes his moves, it's just the sort of thing he might do to rehabilitate himself in opposition.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
There must be a political analogy to the Crooked House being demolished by dodgy property developers. I suppose the most appropriate analogy would be for it to be replaced by something grey, dull and boring.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
That's a glib response par excellence. Those of us who do want to discuss polling (and we can even if you don't want to) might note the Find Out Now poll has a larger than usual sample of 11,000.
I've seen on another site Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7% and Reform 4% so that's a pretty bleak poll for the centre-right. Perhaps their time is up - that's all - after 13 years plus.
Looking forward to seeing the data tables and the ever-wonderful sub-samples and discussing them.
Genuine question - has Electoral Calculus got its mojo back? I realise in 2010-2 it was the next big thing and “Baxtered” became a verb here on PB, but in recent years its forecasts have been risible and don’t pass the smell test on a constituency level - whereas some of the newer attempts like Flavible (RIP) and Ben Walker’s Britain Predicts have made a good fist of things. But maybe EC is back and my perception is outdated.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
It's a nowcast not a forecast.
On that basis, you could disregard any poll even the ones showing the Conservatives 20 points ahead.
We have plenty of evidence from actual votes in boxes the Conservatives aren't doing well currently.
Could they recover - certainly, but a recovery from 24% to 30% would mean the difference between a catastrophe and a disaster but there are some on here such as @Mexicanpete and @Peck who seem adamant this deficit is not only ephemeral and transitory but will be reversed to a Conservative majority.
Let's be fair - the Conservatives were polling badly in 85/86 and won big in 87 but it's the movement of votes directly from Conservative to Labour which does the damage. Some may stay at home rather than vote against the Conservatives as happened in 97 and we also know there are still a lot of "Don't Knows" - twice as many women as men.
The problem is time is running out - campaigns don't move votes as much as some think. If we're voting on October 10th or 17th 2024 that's not a lot. The same distance out from 1997 we knew which way it was going to go.
You are confusing two things: (1) that the Conservatives are doing very badly and (2) that modelling current polling is right and a total wipeout is on the cards.
I agree with (1) without agreeing with (2) and challenging (2) does not mean I'm in denial about (1).
We know MRP is only accurate about 7-10 days before election day itself, and past MRPs that were done earlier proved to be woefully out of line with subsequent reality.
I'm also a bit sceptical of any model output that suggests sub-100 type seat figures. It's certainly possible (Conservative wipeout in Canada and all that) but it seems to me more likely to indicate that the poll inputs have pushed the model out of the "not wildly far from the sort of result you typically get" range where it will be most likely to give accurate results.
Agree with you both.
You cannot expect polls to be accurate this far out any more than you can expect precision from a long range weather forecast. Both are just an indication of where we are heading, but both are apt to be blown off course.
Our electoral system makes forecasting particularly hazardous. Except in the most extreme circumstances, a few percentage points either way makes a hell of a difference.
I certainly wouldn't be betting on seat-ranges just yet.
Evening, Peter.
I broadly agree with your analysis, however, surely identifying - and laying overconfidence in seat-ranges is therefore the logical betting strategy?
I’m always torn on this. To not bet in the face of uncertainty, is often a very smart move. But laying overconfidence (especially where the odds appear to be influenced by models with dodgy assumptions) is more likely to generate better long term EV, I’d guess.
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“worthless” is harsh. The Tories are on their way to a fairly biblical hiding unless they get their act together sharpish. That is a useful message, if not an entirely welcome one.
The key is to focus on getting inflation down and then interest will also fall, then go into the election promising some tax cuts and ideally with the barge policy leading to lower immigration too. If that happens then better polls will follow as well
The first stage for Sunak has to be when inflation falls below average wage rises
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
Let's be fair - under Ken Clarke the British economy was in really good shape in early 1997 - as I recall, we were even paying off our national debt via budget surpluses.
The Conservatives didn't derive the benefit from that they might have expected - I don't know why Sunak and Hunt think people will thank them after everything we've been through.
As to how Starmer and Reeves will deal with an improving economy, I appreciate the Conservatives may wish to make people believe they'll make things worse but the Government has its own record of deficit, debt and inflation to defend.
The Tories have a major problem - they have weaponised ignorance and stupidity. Polls show that an awful lot of voters believe that "falling inflation" means "falling prices".
Inflation may fall, but prices will not. And once again having been promised the moon on a stick*, people will be angry.
*Don't say that nobody has claimed that prices will fall. It has been openly touted by Tory commentators in response to prices rising.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
Seems he is under investigation by Ofcom with other GB News presenters
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
You mean, like Hague in 2001? Or Foot in 1983?
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
Interesting analysis of US poling, that younger voters overwhelmingly want the Dems to nominate someone other than Biden. https://youtube.com/watch?v=QoikeCSHBBA
Interesting analysis of US poling, that younger voters overwhelmingly want the Dems to nominate someone other than Biden. https://youtube.com/watch?v=QoikeCSHBBA
Yes but they mostly never voted for Trump anyway, it was 40 to 50 year olds who voted for Trump in 2016 but switched to Biden in 2020
In off-topic news that will leave NickPalmer having kittens, I hope those South of the Pennines are prepared for a bit of a shock tomorrow:
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
So it might stop raining then? Nice.
2023 - the Year With No UK Summer?
Have you forgotten June already?
I was just looking at reservoir levels. Well up across England. Not ridiculously out of line with the overall average for the time of year but what *is* impressive is that that's a recovery from near-record lows last autumn.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Tories still clearly main opposition however to a Labour government with a huge majority. LDs just 1 seat from overtaking the SNP too
This poll does have a 22% gap between Cons and Labour, higher than most polling companies. However I'm suspicious of the very high Reform numbers in those polls. This poll may not be right but I suspect the other polls are wrong.
New polling - given exclusively to Channel 4 News - shows a Labour landslide victory with around 460 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats - if there were an imminent general election.
Useful information for those tempted to bet on the next Tory leader.
I think everyone knows my views on that score. Get in now while you still can.
Err… nope. FWIW I can’t see past Mordaunt.
Mordaunt would be sensible. Media-friendly, some 21st century instincts. Not sure what she's be like as a potential PM, but that's likely to be quite a way down the realistic checklist in 2025. First term LotO is about making noise, and she can do that. Two catches, though:
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
You highlight the points I was considering. She is nowhere near to being up to being PM but so what? She never will be. She is good on her feet, good at the cutting remark and can hold things together. Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
I don’t sense any appetite in the party for anything “moderate” after the election. Too many seem to see Sunak, who’s bloody right wing, as not right wing enough.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
Suicidal. And not in a Dignatas kind of way either. Gory and bloody.
There was a poll I remember in 2019 which had a Mogg led Tories on 35%, not as high as Boris but higher than the Tories are on now.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
That was then. After his more recent behaviour, I think there'd still be a three and a five in the figure but a fairly important decimal point in the middle.
No, he will rally the rightwing core vote as Corbyn rallied the leftwing core vote even if he has less appeal to centrists.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
You mean, like Hague in 2001? Or Foot in 1983?
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
You could add Hague too, actually Howard was better at rallying the right behind him in 2005 than Hague was in 2001 even if the centre again stayed with Blair.
Foot did manage to keep Labour second ahead of the SDP in 1983 which was not always certain
There is not a general election tomorrow. And, if there were, people would respond differently.
So the C4 poll is worthless.
“People would respond differently”.
Any evidence for that assertion.
Yes, look at the trend for any opinion polls over the last 30-40 years in the mid-terms and how they change in the build up to an election once the election is called, and the campaign takes effect.
This is a nowcast not a forecast.
Stumbled across this at the weekend- x axis is days before the election, y axis is difference between polls and the final outcome in real vote share. So -5 means that 5 percent of swingback went on to happen.
TLDR is that swingback can happen, but it doesn't always happen, and the gap between where the Conservatives are and where they need to be is beginning to get rather big.
Swingback from where? The Tories could easily fall further behind before they swing back.
Oh, "The Thick Of It" is on BBC4, with Peter Capaldi in his second best role. It's the first ep with Nicola Murray.
Yes Minister first episode just before too
I know. I saw it. I assume the "first ep" coincidence isn't a coincidence (I assume the Chris Langham years have been memory-holed). They've both attained enough age to look at objectively. Yes Minister is still good but really slow and ornate. As for The Thick Of It, these days Malcolm Tucker would be arrested in the first five minutes. They're both still very good but they're period pieces now...
Interesting analysis of US poling, that younger voters overwhelmingly want the Dems to nominate someone other than Biden. https://youtube.com/watch?v=QoikeCSHBBA
So instead of not bothering to vote for Biden, they want to not bother to vote for somebody else?
Comments
1 WIll she be available? Portsmouth North ought to be safe, but at 100ish seats, who knows?
2 Will the Conservative Party be in a mood to be sensible? Some of the vibes are that Rishi is too sensible and centrist, in which case one wonders how red the meat will have to be. Stand by for the revolution to devour... someone like Lee Anderson.
I would not be surprised if a lot of places unofficially have a culture of just keeping schtum and playing the odds of getting caught, eevn where the official rule is report even near misses. People are very good about knowing what they should do and say, but not doing it.
Green lives in Yorkshire. She has four adult children, including twins, with her husband Tim. In 2017, Green presented a Ted Talk discussing the journey to gain gender-affirming surgery for her eldest child at age 16 in Thailand.[3][10] Green met members of the British royal family at an event to acknowledge the contribution of those working in the mental health sector in the U.K.[11]
News to you, nae doot.
With Yorkshire joining in on Thursday:
Though that’s possibly just hors d’œuvres. Later in the month…?
Fortunately the coastguard and police talked her down, but it is a reminder of just how much mental health issues affect so many
Any evidence for that assertion?
Which is why in industries like public transport, there’s a reporting culture of any incident. The AAIB and RAIB produce monthly reports about incidents and near misses, so that the rest of their industry can learn from mistakes and avoid the serious accident. People working in the industry are encouraged by their employers to work within such a framework, and to call out minor incidents in their workplace.
Truss redux?
Or would she be considered too mainstream?
Capable of leading the Tories to a less severe defeat in 2029. That’s about as good as it is going to get.
But FPTP is a funny thing. If normally Tory voters did decide to sit it out on the basis the government needed to be punished, while left of centre voters tactical voted en masse, I’m not sure everyone realises how far seat numbers could fall.
This is a nowcast not a forecast.
JRM would be a pretty good bet for leader if he keeps his seat (and goes for it).
I've seen on another site Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7% and Reform 4% so that's a pretty bleak poll for the centre-right. Perhaps their time is up - that's all - after 13 years plus.
Looking forward to seeing the data tables and the ever-wonderful sub-samples and discussing them.
*Like the French centre-right with their silly “les républicains” rebrand.
but yeah
It seems that is likely in the next couple of months
However, while I am sceptical of the conservatives being sub 100 I do expect Starmer to have a working majority
That said, my oldest daughter, whose preferred climate is Perthshire in late Autumn, has been considerably nicer company this summer than last!
I am here to discuss polling. And if you hadn't noticed I make quite a bit of money from my political betting.
I don't doubt the Conservatives are on course for a heavy defeat together with a Labour victory. But they won't be wiped out to under 100 seats.
Much of what's driving polling at the moment is complete apathy from centre-right voters (that doesn't include you, by the way) who are sitting on their hands. The one thing that will rally some of them to the colours is the prospect of a landslide Labour victory and the potential wipeout of any opposition. Current polling is not measuring real behaviour in an actual election campaign.
I therefore expect the Conservatives to increase in polling (not enough to win or anything like it, but enough to avoid a total wipeout) when the election is called, and through onto polling day itself.
It even happened in 1997.
We have plenty of evidence from actual votes in boxes the Conservatives aren't doing well currently.
Could they recover - certainly, but a recovery from 24% to 30% would mean the difference between a catastrophe and a disaster but there are some on here such as @Mexicanpete and @Peck who seem adamant this deficit is not only ephemeral and transitory but will be reversed to a Conservative majority.
Let's be fair - the Conservatives were polling badly in 85/86 and won big in 87 but it's the movement of votes directly from Conservative to Labour which does the damage. Some may stay at home rather than vote against the Conservatives as happened in 97 and we also know there are still a lot of "Don't Knows" - twice as many women as men.
The problem is time is running out - campaigns don't move votes as much as some think. If we're voting on October 10th or 17th 2024 that's not a lot. The same distance out from 1997 we knew which way it was going to go.
Maybe a tad too much being read into it.
I agree with (1) without agreeing with (2) and challenging (2) does not mean I'm in denial about (1).
We know MRP is only accurate about 7-10 days before election day itself, and past MRPs that were done earlier proved to be woefully out of line with subsequent reality.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12382159/UK-cost-living-crisis-coming-end-inflation-looks-set-fall-pay-growth.html
I agree with you (as I often have) a 90 seat Conservative rump, while amusing on some levels, is fairly improbable though I don't think it can be entirely ruled out.
It's an interesting notion centre-right voters will somehow rally round to prevent a wipeout - it was the argument I remember in 2001 when Labour won on a low turnout. Indeed, some post-election polling of non-voters showed they backed Labour 2:1 over other parties but didn't come out because the result appeared a foregone conclusion.
Even with 90 seats, Braverman, Badenoch and Dowden will likely survive.
I wasn't aware you made money from betting on politics - kudos - I make money from betting on horses but you probably weren't aware of that (to be fair, from some of my selections on here I wouldn't blame you).
There seems to be a wilful ignorance of nuance and desire to stick to a pissing contest.
If that remains so, I'll simply stick to privately messaging serious punters and give up on BTL discussion.
Best in mind that this is only predictive in the broadest sense: who gets the most votes. Things like the most seats, who will be PM, and so on are more difficult still.
[1] ...and about a couple of hundred other people in the hall
Plug that into EC with 12% for the LDs and a bit of tactical voting and we get a Lab majority of 94.
That was totally uncalled for.
If you want a grown-up discussion act like a grown-up and try and reign in your social ineptitude.
The Conservatives didn't derive the benefit from that they might have expected - I don't know why Sunak and Hunt think people will thank them after everything we've been through.
As to how Starmer and Reeves will deal with an improving economy, I appreciate the Conservatives may wish to make people believe they'll make things worse but the Government has its own record of deficit, debt and inflation to defend.
This is probably a good thing for the long-term health of the Tory Party. A JRM leadership would likely be an extinction event.
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1686848697777221633
TLDR is that swingback can happen, but it doesn't always happen, and the gap between where the Conservatives are and where they need to be is beginning to get rather big.
They are key. It explains Sunak's strategy.
I expect enough of them to rally to get the Conservatives to 150-200 seats.
I'd be astonished if a wipeout of <100 seats occurred (as modelling current polling may show) because it would assume the election campaign and focus on Labour's manifesto and prospective programme for office had absolutely no effect at all in rallying its natural opponents.
And may the lord have mercy upon all our souls.
I'd be interested in prices for a Labour majority above/below 100.
Mind you Starmer has not sealed the deal yet and if anything looking at recent local election results both main parties seem to be losing out to the lib dems
You cannot expect polls to be accurate this far out any more than you can expect precision from a long range weather forecast. Both are just an indication of where we are heading, but both are apt to be blown off course.
Our electoral system makes forecasting particularly hazardous. Except in the most extreme circumstances, a few percentage points either way makes a hell of a difference.
I certainly wouldn't be betting on seat-ranges just yet.
Remember Corbyn was supposed to be suicide for Labour but still ended up with higher voteshares in 2017 and 2019 than Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband ever got and a hung parliament in the former despite landslide defeat in the latter.
Probably a loser but if he loses office and even his seat then, given he's a free man and likes his moves, it's just the sort of thing he might do to rehabilitate himself in opposition.
So what did they intend? You can’t live in it (as was). It’s on a slope. You can’t use it for anything else (it’s on a slope)
So their sole reason must have been: to knock it down. Only then is it possibly worth £626,000
Electoral Calculus on Didcot & Wantage: Labour gain. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Didcot+and+Wantage
Current makeup of Vale of White Horse District Council: LD 34, Green 4, Lab 0, Con 0.
Electoral Calculus on Bicester & Woodstock: Labour win, LD chances just 5%. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Bicester+and+Woodstock
Can’t be bothered to go through the electoral history of the area but… no. This is about as far from “getting its mojo back” as it’s possible to be.
That is actually better than a leader who fails to rally their core vote while also losing centrists too like Ed Miliband in 2015, Brown in 2010 or Major in 1997
I broadly agree with your analysis, however, surely identifying - and laying overconfidence in seat-ranges is therefore the logical betting strategy?
I’m always torn on this. To not bet in the face of uncertainty, is often a very smart move. But laying overconfidence (especially where the odds appear to be influenced by models with dodgy assumptions) is more likely to generate better long term EV, I’d guess.
Inflation may fall, but prices will not. And once again having been promised the moon on a stick*, people will be angry.
*Don't say that nobody has claimed that prices will fall. It has been openly touted by Tory commentators in response to prices rising.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-66426544
They both had an advantage over Mogg though. They were both very intelligent.
It has actually been a good summer. The summer we needed.
But we're British, and if we can't grumble about the weather we'd be miserable.
Foot did manage to keep Labour second ahead of the SDP in 1983 which was not always certain